Spring 2008, Vol 28, No 3

Feature Articles

8. A Skeptic Reads the Bible 34. Yet More Imaginography Martin Bridgstock Bill Richardson

12.Quantum Quodlibet 38. Tracks of the Big Cat Michael Lucht Phillip Peters

17. The Amaz!ng Meeting 41. KJibbutz Children Karen Stollznow Eran Segev

23. Area 51: The Truth is Out There 46. The Trick or Miracle Paradox Michael Wolloghan Peter Booth

25. Being The One 48. Skepticism and Babies Richard Saunders Katherine Shade

30. Jonathan Sarfati: Scientist? 50. Review: Malice in Weirdland Brian Baxter Barry Williams

Regular Items Forum 4. Editorial — Busy Times 52. Global Warming and Climate Change Barry Williams 61. On Matters Concerning God 6. Around the Traps Bunyip News 65. Letters 44. WA Young Writers Bust Myths 69. Notices

Cover art by Richard Saunders Editorial

ISSN 0726-9897 Editor Barry Williams Editor Elect Busy Karen Stollznow Contributing Editors Tim Mendham Steve Roberts Technology Consultants Times Richard Saunders Eran Segev Chief Investigator Ian Bryce t has certainly been a hectic time Annoy an Anglican” or “Peeve a All correspondence to: Ifor Skeptics and Skepticism since Presbyterian”, but in the end I Australian Skeptics Inc last I penned an editorial here. couldn’t be bothered. In any case, PO Box 268 While a Papal visit for World such was the outcry that sanity Roseville NSW 2069 Youth Day didn’t exactly cause me to prevailed and the proposed law was Australia renounce my lack of faith and seek not enacted. (ABN 90 613 095 379 ) entry into holy orders, I wasn’t too I was more peeved still by their Contact Details fussed about the influx of hordes of expenditure of upwards of $60 Tel: (02) 9417 2071 devout young people into Sydney. million of taxpayers’ funds on the Fax: (02) 9417 7930 Live and let live is my motto, and it affair. Money contributed by Meth- e-mail: [email protected] caused me no particular discomfort, odists, Mormons and Muslims (not although I thought that closing the to mention atheists and agnostics) Web Pages Harbour Bridge to traffic for a day, among others, and it’s not as though Australian Skeptics so they could make a pilgrimage NSW is actually flush at the mo- www.skeptics.com.au across it, was a bit over the top. ment. Still, it might be worth the No Answers in Genesis™ They were Christians, after all; why Skeptics’ while to request matching http://home.austarnet.com.au/stear/default.htm couldn’t they simply walk across the funds to help celebrate Charles the Skeptic is a journal of fact and opinion, published Harbour? Darwin’s bicentenary next February. four times per year by Australian Skeptics Inc. Views Two things I learned about the Don’t hold your breath, though. and opinions expressed in articles and letters in the visit engendered competing emo- Of more immediate interest was Skeptic are those of the authors, and are not necessar- tions. That the Pope was accompa- the coincidence of Science Week and ily those of Australian Skeptics Inc. Articles may be re- 2 printed with permission and with due acknowledgement nied by a coffin containing the a St James Ethics Centre IQ to the Skeptic. remains of a bloke who died in 1925, Debate, which saw not one, but two struck me as being one of the most prominent US Skeptics visiting our Editorial consultants: bizarre rituals of which I had ever shores in the same week. Dr Stephen Basser (medicine) heard. The revelations that the Pope Michael Shermer, head of the Dr Trevor Case (psychology) Dr Richard Gordon (medicine) had to step outside the retreat California-based Skeptics Society, Dr Pete Griffith (biochemistry/microbiology) where he was staying, so he could Scientific American columnist, and Dr William Grey (philosophy) Prof Colin Groves (anthropology) have a quiet smoke, and that he had publisher of Skeptic magazine, came Mr Martin Hadley (law) Dr Colin Keay (astronomy) brought his own supplies of his as a guest of the government for Dr Andrew Parle (physics) favourite Austrian beer, confirmed Science Week. During a whirlwind Prof Ian Plimer (geology) Dr Stephen Moston (psychology) my view that underneath the funny tour of the country, he managed to Dr Alex Ritchie (palaeontology) clothes, he’s just a bloke, regardless make contact with the WA and NSW Dr Steve Roberts (chemistry) Mr Roland Seidel (mathematics) of who he selects as a travelling Skeptics. WA co-opted him to Dr Karen Stollznow (linguistics) companion. present awards to winners of their Branch correspondents: Actions of the NSW government student awards (story in this issue), did perturb me more. First, by while members of NSW Skeptics ACT: Mr Michael O’Rourke Gold Coast: Mr John Stear threatening to enact a law making it attended a couple of talks where Hunter: Dr Colin Keay an offence (attracting a $5,000 fine) Michael spoke, and then entertained Qld: Mr Bob Bruce SA: Mr Allan Lang for ‘annoying’ Catholic pilgrims, was him to a private lunch at the Rocks, Tas: Mr Fred Thornett grotesque — I was tempted to wear where we were also joined by Vic: Mr Ken Greatorex WA: Dr Geoffrey Dean a T-shirt proclaiming “Save Money.

Page 4 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 Skeptics Around Australia

New South Wales Australian Skeptics Inc PO Box 268, Roseville NSW 2069 Tel: (02) 9417 2071 Fax: (02) 9417 7930 [email protected]

Hunter Skeptics PO Box 166 , Waratah NSW 2298 Tel: (02) 4957 8666. Fax: (02) 4952 6442

Victoria Australian Skeptics (Vic) Inc GPO Box 5166AA, Melbourne VIC 3001 Tel: 1 800 666 996 Michael Shermer among some unique Australian animals, including the Editor, NSW [email protected] Skeptics Secretary, John Sweatman and Darwin the Boozy Koala. Borderline Skeptics Margaret Kittson from Brisbane. years, has obviously taken the PO Box 17 , Mitta Mitta VIC 3701 Eran Segev, NSW VP, escorted thought of retirement very seriously Tel:(02)60723632 Michael around the sights of Sydney, indeed. It has been exhibiting signs [email protected] which he seemed to enjoy very of senility, leading to a semi-disap- much. pearance of a half completed Skeptic Queensland The second visitor was Victor one day. After a fair bit of flounder- Queensland Skeptics Assn Inc Stenger, retired physicist and author ing around, I managed to resurrect PO Box 6454 , Fairfield Gardens QLD 4103 of several books on science and it without too much loss of content. Tel (07) 3255 0499 [email protected] religion , who was here to speak in a It’s now a toss up whether the machine retires before I do, in which debate in the IQ2 series, on the topic Gold Coast Skeptics case my next (and last) editorial “We Would be Better off Without PO Box 8348, GCMC Bundall QLD 9726 might come to you inscribed on Religion”. His side won the debate Tel: (07) 5593 1882 Fax: (07) 5593 2776 by a handy margin helped, no doubt, parchment. [email protected] by the number of Skeptics in the audience. Thank you ACT NSW Skeptics were fortunate Let me conclude this, my penulti- Canberra Skeptics that Vic arrived a few days early and mate editorial, by thanking all those PO Box 555, Civic Square ACT 2608 agreed to speak at our August Skeptics who, after reading about (02) 6121 4483 Dinner Meeting, on the subject of his my impending retirement, have sent [email protected] latest book, God, The Failed Hypoth- me messages about my stewardship South Australia esis: How Science Shows That God of the Skeptic , and their good wishes Skeptics SA for the future. You have all been Does Not Exist. It was a sellout 52B Miller St Unley SA 5061 function and was thoroughly enjoyed most kind with your comments and I Tel: (08) 8272 5881 by everyone present. have been touched more than is [email protected] I was a great pleasure to meet seemly for a Skeptic. Thus far no one and exchange ideas with these two has qualified their remarks with Western Australia stars in the US Skeptical firmament. “And about time, too”, but there is WA Skeptics The fact that we see so few of our still time before I leave my post at PO Box 466, Subiaco WA 6904 overseas colleagues is the down-side the end of the year. Tel: (08) 9448 8458 of being so remote from everywhere For those of you who expressed [email protected] else. the hope that I do not sever all A hectic few weeks, but like connections with the Skeptic and Tasmania Australian Skeptics in Tasmania everything the Skeptics do, a lot of Australian Skeptics, let me say that PO Box 582, North Hobart TAS 7002. fun too. that is not my intention. I plan to Tel: (03) 6234 4731 continue contributing articles and [email protected] Apology effort to our cause for as long as I I must apologise for the slight delay remain upright and my colleagues Darwin Skeptics Contact in the mailing of this issue. My put up with me. Tel: 08 89274533 computer, a loyal servant for many Barry Williams [email protected]

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 5 News and Views Around the Traps

Conspiring for Truth Various commentators, who and right decisions, minor and major operate under the generic title errors, selfishness and selflessness ‘Truthers’, with a wide variety of — common human attributes that ometimes we growl at our expertise and experience, spoke of happen all the time in any complex friends at the ABC, especially S ‘anomalies’ in the official reports undertaking. when they put to air some bought-in about the event, giving their expla- We might not know all the an- tripe that touts psychic detectives nations of what they found trouble- swers to all the questions, but the and the like, but now might be the some. While these people all story hangs together, which the time for a pat on the back. At least, sounded plausible and sincere, there conspiracy stories do not. we think a programme deserves a were gaping flaws in their reason- The differences between the pat on the back; other Skeptics and ing. disparate conspiracy narratives and commentators have posited a differ- The problem with the conspiracy the stories of their critics is that, in ent view. theories we saw here (and this is most cases, the critics had the On September 8, Four Corners where the word ‘various’ comes in) is advantage of having been there and aired a BBC programme, 9/11: The that they all address different having seen what actually hap- Third Tower, which looked at the perceived anomalies, they all come pened, while the Truthers too often conspiracy theories that have grown to different conclusions, and taken relied on second- or third-hand up around the whole catastrophe all together they don’t add up to a information, some of which was and particularly around the collapse coherent story. The only way they simply wrong. of WTC 7, a 50 storey building can be cobbled together is to require Some examples: Truthers claimed adjacent to the better known, and an unbelievably large conspiracy that WTC 7 was left virtually much taller, WTC towers 1 and 2. encompassing a huge number of unscathed when the other towers Ostensibly, the documentary people. collapsed and there was only a small followed a well-tried formula, in that Then we heard from a number of fire. Wrong! They had relied of TV it gave far more time to those other experts, some of them associ- footage showing only one side of the proposing various conspiracy theo- ated with the official investigation, building, which looked intact, but ries (and that ‘various’ is important others not. other tape showed that when WTC 2 in itself), while giving only a short Now, in any large catastrophic collapsed, it caused massive damage time to those skeptics who would event there will always be anomalies to the other side of 7, while evidence refute them. This process is some- — things that can’t be explained from fire fighters and others on-site thing of which skeptics are all too totally, no matter how many and told that many fires had been raging familiar, as it is invariably the case how thoroughly investigations are through the building prior to its in shows promoting assorted irra- conducted. There will always be collapse. tionalities. holes in the narrative, and we have One Truther claimed that for the However, I found this programme to accept that fact. Trouble is that building to collapse as it did, it differed in significant ways from Truthers don't. would require demolition charges to those other shows. Certainly the In the case with the 9/11 outrages, have done the damage. I had the proponents still had more time than however, the official story covers advantage of watching, just a few the opponents, but the latter had most of the events in a coherent days earlier, a documentary about enough time to make their case, and fashion. It includes stories of great the demolition of four cooling towers they made it very well. courage, gross incompetence, wrong at a British nuclear facility, far less

Page 6 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 complex structures that a 50 storey as the only real defence against the Then there is one from our own building. Setting demolition charges disease. coterie: is a weeks-long operation and the Readers are probably aware that A Skeptical Look at Alternative work is impossible to disguise. The South African President Mbeki, and Therapies and Beliefs man in charge of that demolition his Health Minister, are highly This publication by Laurie Eddie spoke against the Truthers, so they sceptical about the connection (long-time Secretary of the South simply added him to the conspiracy. between HIV (which affects some 6 Australian Skeptics) examines a That’s where conspiracy theories million of the country’s population) number of popular alternative lose any credibility; anything can be and AIDS. This denial has resulted therapies and beliefs. Its object is to held as ‘true’ if any opposition is just in a failure to implement sufficient explain the mystical origins of a more evidence that the conspiracy is treatments by anti-retrovirals, number of alternative therapies, larger than originally thought. Look relying instead on nutritional most of which have a basis in the at the official report conducted by ‘solutions’. More importantly, it has Vitalistic theory of a “divine” or the National Institute of Standards no doubt resulted in an undeter- heavenly life-force, which, it is and Technologies: wtc.nist.gov/ mined number of deaths from this claimed, when it becomes blocked, NISTNCSTAR1CollapseofTowers.pdf. appalling disease. produces ill-health. Most alternative Hundreds of people from a wide As a result of his column, therapists claim that, at such times, range of organisations were part of Goldacre and the Guardian found it needs to be “readjusted” using the investigation — they would all themselves defending a massive libel their particular form of alternative have had to be part of any con- suit from Rath. We have just heard therapy. spiracy. that, after more than a year, lots of Subjects covered include: Acu- One comment towards the end of Dr Goldacre’s time, and a huge legal puncture; Applied Kinesiology; the show, rang true. Richard Clarke, bill for the Guardian, Rath has Ayurvedic Medicine; Bach Flower who had been a national Security withdrawn his suit. The defendants Remedies; Colonic Irrigation; Crop adviser to both the Clinton and Bush expect to recover their considerable Circles; Crystals and Gemstones; administrations, claimed that no costs from the plaintiff. Homeopathy; Magnetism; Naturopa- government is competent enough to We say more power to Ben thy; Numerology; Suggestion and sustain such a wide conspiracy, nor Goldacre’s elbow; more journalists the Placebo Response; Rei-ki; to keep it secret. Sounds about right. and columnists should involve Reverse Speech; Therapeutic Touch But the final comment came from themselves in exposing the rampant and Vitalism, together with the Daniel Nigro, NY Fire Chief, who quackery that infests the Alterna- Origins of Magical, Mystical Ener- had been on-site and had previously tive-to-Medicine industry. gies and a host of other useful seen many of his firefighters lose More details can be found at information. their lives. You can see his state- www.badscience.net/ and This publication will be available ment at 911guide.googlepages.com/ www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/ for purchase at the National Con- danielnigro. Speaking of the con- 12/matthiasrath.aids2 vention. spiracy theories, he said, “They and keep your eye out for Ben’s disgust me.” Amen to that. book, Bad Science (Fourth Estate, Ltd 2008) Barging in

Good news The Bunyip has a mate who lives in Good reading the pleasant Central-Western NSW Some good news on the alternative- town of Grenfell, where he is con- to-medicine front comes from the Further to the preceding item, quite cerned with the Back to Grenfell UK. Dr Ben Goldacre writes the Bad a significant number of new books Week festivities. He was somewhat Science column in the Guardian are being published about the flim- nonplussed recently, to receive a call newspaper. In 2007 he wrote col- flam and downright dangerous from a man who wished to associate umns in which he questioned the practices associated with the so- Grenfell with his plan to prove that activities of Matthias Rath, a major called ‘complementary’ and ‘alterna- all our unique native animals that manufacturer of vitamins, about a tive’’ health care industry. left Noah’s Ark at Mt Ararat, could media campaign he had run in Among these, we have a couple, have reached Australia. It seems the South African. The thrust of the which we hope to review in future plan relies on doing the reverse campaign was to denigrate the use issues. They are: journey by barge. We’d give him a of anti-retroviral drugs in the Trick or Treatment?: Alternative standing ovation if he only managed treatment of HIV/AIDS. The adver- Medicine on Trial by Simon Singh to get a barge from Grenfell to the tisements claimed that the drugs and Suckers How Alternative Medi- sea, regardless of its cargo. undermined the body’s immune cine Makes Fools of Us All by Rose system, and touted ‘micro nutrients’ Shapiro. Bunyip

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 7 Cover Story A Skeptic Reads the Bible Part 1: The Bible as a Scientific Document

Martin Bridgstock has just read have a confession to make. I have lations2, so that I could compare the entire Bible and thinks I been doing something that would what was being said. there are things that appal most skeptics. I have been I did some sums in my head. reading the Bible. I started in late There were 1400 pages in the Bible skeptics really March of this year, and worked so, if I read one a day, that would ought to through the entire book in about two take nearly four years: too long. So I know. months. At the Wagga colloquium, aimed for at least 20 pages a day, with skeptical ideas flying every- and actually averaged something where, I had my Bible and my over 23. I estimate it took me about notebook in my hotel room, and spent 70 hours to work from Genesis 1.1 to some time reading it. Nobody knew. Revelation 22.21, and I took some- “What’s going on?” I hear you ask, thing like 600 notes3. “Has Bridgstock got religion?” Not at Of course, my family noticed. all. I simply noticed that the Bible is “Where’s Dad?” asked one of my an important document, with many daughters, “Off somewhere reading people regarding it as the revealed his Bible,” said the other with a sigh. word of God and a source of great My wife was worried that I was wisdom. For example, I’ve argued going religion-crazy, until, partway elsewhere that creation science is through the Old Testament, I one of the most dangerous paranor- explained some of my reasons4. mal claims, and it rests directly on Was it worth doing? I think so. I claims about the Bible (Bridgstock still am not a Biblical scholar, but I 2008) So, I decided, I wanted to know a good deal more about the know exactly what it said. Bible and what it says. I did come to I have ended up with a three-part some simple conclusions, and I think article describing my conclusions. I that all skeptics should know at won’t make any comments about least these points. So bear with me, religion, as that’s outside my view of and look at the Bible through my skepticism. I suggest you read this eyes. If I am wrong, I invite people first footnote, as it tells you how you with more knowledge to correct me. might read the articles1. The first conclusion is something I looked at a few translations. The pretty obvious. The Bible isn’t a Good News Bible seemed the easiest book. It looks like a book, with its Martin Bridgstock, a Senior Lecturer in the School to read, so I picked up a copy at a covers and binding and classy of Biological and Physical Sciences at Griffith Lifeline bookfest. Apparently it had lettering, but it isn’t. The Bible is University, was the winner of the inaugural been given to someone called actually a collection of papers, Australian Skeptics prize for Critical Thinking and Vanessa back in 1990. For a few gathered together over many centu- is a Life Member of Australian Skeptics. bucks each I picked up other trans- ries. There was no overall editor5 so,

Page 8 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 as you might expect, there are account — if either — was true, so bidding in Egypt? Second, how could overlaps and gross inconsistencies they included both. the creator of the cosmos want to kill between the different parts. Often My second example seems to show a particular person and not be able there are repetitions and inconsist- that God’s decrees can be totally to do it? In other parts of the Bible, encies within books, as well. On the ignored. Early on in Genesis we read God cheerfully wipes out 185,000 basis of this incoherence, it is quite that God proclaimed, “I will not people in a single session and easy to read radically different allow people to live for ever; they are another 70,000 on another occasionk. meanings into the Bible. mortal. From now on they will live Third, assuming God had some Compounding this is the fact that no longer than 120 years.”d This adequate reason for wanting to kill the translations themselves are often seems clear enough, except that a Moses, what on earth does touching uncertain. Throughout the Good couple of chapters later we are a severed foreskin to someone’s feet News version, alternative transla- reading about Noah and the flood, (or genitals) have to do with chang- tions are offered. In the preface there and we are casually told that “When ing God’s mind? It makes no sense. is a frank admission that: Noah was 601 years old . . . the These three items help to make my At times the original meaning cannot water was gone.”e So what happened first point: the Bible is a collection of be precisely known, not only because the to God’s edict? Noah lived more than documents, with all the resulting meaning of some words and phrases 480 years beyond the limit. It’s inconsistencies, overlaps and contra- cannot be determined with a great de- worse than this, actually. In a later dictions that we might expect. gree of assurance, but also because the part of Genesis, we find that Jacob underlying cultural and historical con- lived to be 147f, and in Exodus we Inclusions and exclusions text is sometimes beyond recoverya. are told that several people outlived The second point is just as impor- God’s deadline. Levi lived 137 yearsg, Let’s look at a few examples of tant, and follows logically. If the Kohath lived 133h and Amram lived inconsistency which struck me. Bible is a collection of documents, 137 yearsi. It would be easy to There are many others, perhaps the then decisions must have been made produce other examples of people most famous one being the two about what documents to include, living beyond God’s limit. accounts of creation to be found in and what to omit. Since we are My third example concerns an Genesis 1 and 2. My examples are human, disagreements are likely to almost incredible passage recounted more modest. Let’s start with the have arisen. Sure enough, different in the book of Exodus. God has story of how Beersheba got its name. Christian groups have made differ- approached Moses via the burning ent decisions. Inconsistencies bush, and told him his task. Moses The Protestant Bible, which I was was to go to Egypt and tell the King to reading, has 39 books in the Old In Genesis we read the rather ugly liberate the children of Israel. Moses Testament and 27 in the new. The story of how Abraham moved to was initially reluctant — not surpris- south Canaan, and passed off his Catholic Bible has seven more books ing, given the King’s likely reaction — wife, Sarah, as his sister. Sarah in the Old Testament, and adds bits but finally loaded his family onto a caught the eye of King Abimelech, on to two more books, Esther and donkey and headed back to Egypt. but eventually the deception was Daniel. To make matters more Then we get this passage: revealed. Abraham and Abimelech complex, the Jews don’t accept some finally made an agreement in At a camping place on the way to Egypt, of these additional books as being Beersheeba and, we are told, “And the Lord met Moses and tried to kill inspired. so the place was called Beersheba, him. Then Zipporah, his wife, took a By contrast, the Greek Orthodox because it was there that the two of sharp stone, cut off the foreskin of her Bible has several more books than them made a vow.”b son and touched Moses’ feet with it. the Catholic Bible, and some other This sounds simple enough, Because of the rite of circumcision she Orthodox Bibles have more on top of except that a few chapters laterc we said to Moses “You are a husband of that6. So it’s not enough for ‘Biblical are told how Isaac passed his wife, blood to me.” And so the Lord spared Christians’ to proclaim their faith in Rebecca, off as his sister, and she Moses’ life.j the Bible as being divinely inspired. caught the eye of King Abimelech. My Catholic Bible notes that, They must also be able to specify Eventually the two men were “This whole passage is very ob- which Bible is inspired. Implicit in reconciled, a well was dug and, we scure.” And it states also that whose that commitment must be a view are told, “That is how the city of feet were touched is unclear. My that whoever decided on the con- c Beersheba got its name.” Good News Bible suggests that “feet” tents of that particular Bible must Now logically, Beersheba can’t is a euphemism for genitals. What- have been divinely inspired too. So have got its name twice in two ever the details, the following it’s not just the writers of the Bible, generations so what we are looking questions seem pretty unanswer- but the editors and compilers who at here are two legends patched able. First, why did God want to kill were divinely inspired. together. Presumably the compilers Moses when he was trudging — In consequence, if someone claims of Genesis did not know which however reluctantly — to do God’s that they have Biblical sanction for

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 9 Reads the Bible some view, we are perfectly entitled entifically true in all the original auto- zards, vultures, crows; . . .hoopoes; or to ask, “Which Bible? Which transla- graphs . . . The account of origins pre- bats.m tion? Which selection of meanings? sented in Genesis is a simple but factual Now every biologically literate Do you accept Maccabees 3? Tobias? presentation of actual events and there- person knows that bats are not The additional parts of Daniel and fore provides a reliable framework for birds, they are winged mammals. Esther?” This is unlikely to stop a scientific research into the question of Not only must Darwin be consigned professional fundamentalist, but it the origin and history of life. to the scrap-heap if we accept might show bog-standard workplace (Bridgstock 1986: 81)(Italics added) biblical science, apparently bibliolatrists that there is more to A key point to make is that Linnaeus is to be dumped as well. the issue than they might have reading the Bible shows clearly that Note that this is not in any sense a thought. it is not a scientific book. It’s a core Christian doctrine: it simply So what did I do? I kept it simple. religious bundle of documents. The follows from the blanket endorse- I read the Old Testament in the Old Testament is concerned, broadly, ment of the Bible as a scientific Protestant version. Then I got hold with the people of Israel, their doctrine by fundamentalists. of a Catholic Bible and read the origins and their relationship to Then elementary astronomy, if we seven extra books, plus the addi- God. The New Testament is con- follow the Bible, is also to be de- tional odds and ends. As we’ll see, cerned with the activities of Jesus, stroyed. For example, in the first this was well worthwhile. Then I and subsequent interpretations of book of Chronicles, we find a strongly read the New Testament, about what he said and did. Any scientific pre-Galilean view of the universe: which there seems to be less disa- statements are always incidental to The earth is set firmly in place and can- greement. I’d love to have read the the religion. With this in mind, let’s not be moved.n additional Orthodox books, but I had look at some of these statements This statement is repeated later to stop somewhere. which the fundamentalists believe to in the ƒo. It is hardly surprising, My aims are much less ambitious be scientifically true. therefore, that during its heyday the than those of proper Biblical schol- First, what about a bit of maths? creation science movement had a ars. There is a mass of high-quality Did you know that π = 3? According strong element within it pressing for scholarship about the Bible, such as to the Bible it does. In the first book the adoption of geocentrism7. It is that by James Barr (1984), John of Kings, there is a statement that: Spong (1991), and the Jesus seminar perfectly clearly stated in the Bible! Huram made a round tank of bronze . . (eg, Shorto 1997). This can throw What you accept in the Bible is, of . 4.5 metres in diameter and 13.5 me- profound light on how the Bible course, partly denominated on which tres in circumferencel. came to be written, what it meant to Bible you regard as the correct the people at the time, and what The same dimensions appear in a version. All of the examples so far l they were trying to achieve by later book as well . Now every are from the Protestant Bible. writing it. My aim was different. I mathematically literate person However, in the Catholic book of simply wanted to take a careful look knows that the ratio of the circum- Tobias, we find a quite staggering at the Bible as a document and to ference of a circle to its diameter is medical breakthrough. The hero of report some fairly straightforward an infinite decimal, approximated by the book — Tobias — was appar- conclusions. 3.14159. Apparently geometry was a ently a very good bloke, but he The aim is not to attack people’s lot simpler in the olden days. Note suffered the misfortune of going religious beliefs, but to point to the that if we accept this statement, our blind. After burying a body left in appropriateness of using the Bible mathematics is hurled back to before the street, we are told: as an authority. So let’s start with the days of the ancient Greeks. . . . being wearied with burying, he came one of the most contentious claims: Further, it is reasonably easy to to his house and cast himself down by the idea that the Bible must be demonstrate, and to verify, that the the wall and slept; and as he was sleep- accepted as a scientific authority. ratio of a circle’s circumference to its ing, hot dung out of a swallow’s nest fell diameter is not three. If we accept upon his eyes, and he was made blind.p The Bible as science. the fundamentalists’ claims, our We are also informed that God One of the most fraught areas of logic and senses must be subordi- allowed this to happen, to ƒtest biblical study concerns the attempts nated to dogma. Tobias the way Job was tested. of biblical fundamentalists to argue Then there is biology. We need not Anyway, later on his son, also called that the Bible is a valid scientific enter the arena of evolution to find Tobias, in company with an angel, document. To quote the words of the some very weird Biblical statements lands a big fish from the River Creation Science Foundation during indeed. For example in Leviticus the Tigris. Later, Tobias Senior’s eyes its most influential period in Jews are told what they should not are anointed with gall from the fish, Queensland: eat, and this amazing passage occurs: and his blindness is curedq. A break- The Bible is the written Word of God . . You must not eat any of the following through unknown to medical science . Its assertions are historically and sci- birds: eagles, owls, hawks, falcons; buz- lies within the book of Tobias. One

Page 10 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 looks forward to exciting announce- Gravatt College of Advanced Educa- r. Tobias 6.8. ments from fundamentalist (or tion8. After my presentation a young s. Isaiah 30.6; Isaiah 14.29 (The NEB Catholic) hospitals. We also learn woman raised her hand and asked and RSV say “serpents”). that burning a bit of fish’s heart on me if I “knew Jesus.”9 Then another hot coals produces a smoke which asked if I had read the Bible all the Footnotes drives away demons.r way through, and I had to admit We must also note a startling that I hadn’t. I couldn’t (and still 1. I’ve had to formulate three sets of shortcoming in the science of zool- can’t) see the point of the question. footnotes. The numbered set, like this, ogy, and it comes straight from God Now that I have read the Bible, I are meant to be read, and — I hope — himself. The Lord says that: cannot see how any reasonably open- are sometimes funny. The lettered notes are references to the Bible: check them minded person can extract a single “The ambassadors travel through dan- if you like. The Bibliography contains unambiguous message from it. My gerous country, where lions live and references to relevant books and papers. where there are poisonous snakes and overriding view of the Bible is that it 2. I read a Good News Bible, Australian flying dragonss.” is a mass of documents, not always consistent and not always coherent. edition, 1988. I also had close at hand a In another part of the same book, As a result there are contradictions New English Bible, 1975 edition and a it is also related how snakes give and inconsistencies. In addition, if 1972 edition of the Revised Standard birth to dragonss. We constantly one tries to read the Bible as a Version. I checked all key quotes in hear of fundamentalists climbing scientific text, one is forced to accept these three. It’s surprising how often mountains to find traces of Noah’s blatant absurdities. It simply isn’t the translations differ: check the Ark. One wonders why they are not meant to be read that way; it reflects biblical references for examples. For also combing remote parts of the a pre-scientific outlook. reasons I’ll explain in the text, I also world for these amazing creatures. Despite these problems, there is no picked up a Saint Joseph “New Catholic Where are the flying dragons, born doubt that enormous numbers of Edition” Bible published in New York in of snakes? people do derive moral and spiritual 1971. I had a King James version It is possible to produce other guidance from the Bible. In the next handy, but hardly looked at it. Appar- examples, and also to make some article, I will look at the Bible in ently its language was archaic even sort of defence. For example, one search of these attributes. Can the when it was first published. could argue that bats are classed as Bible serve as the basis for a morality? 3. I finished reading Revelation over a birds only for Jewish dietary pur- cup of coffee in McDonalds. I decided poses. π could equal three if the Biblical References. that some frenzied celebration was in tank were round but not strictly a. Preface to the Good News Bible. order, so I had a hot apple pie as well. circular: it could be elliptical, and First page. Oh, the joys of middle age. the longer axis might then be one- third of the circumference. In this b. Genesis 20.1-15; Genesis 21.31. 4. She still thinks I’m mad, but not in that way. way, determined fundamentalists c. Genesis 26. 1-11; Genesis 26.33. 5. Or you could equally say there were might be able to patch together some d. Genesis 6.3. sort of an anguished but defensible thousands of editors, differing wildly in e. Genesis 8.13 (The NEB agrees interpretation. However, the key their views of what was being said. A with this translation, the RSV point should be clear. Read in a postmodern paradise. doesn’t). normal, straightforward way, the 6. This gets amazingly complicated. Bible makes statements which are f. Genesis 47.28. McRay (1986) provides a brief overview. simply scientifically wrong. The g. Exodus 6.16. The extra Catholic books are Baruch, destructiveness of creationism, h. Exodus 6.18. Ecclesiasticus, Judith, Maccabees 1 and which would embrace blatant error 2, Tobias and Wisdom. Apparently the i. Exodus 6.20. to foster a particular dogma, is Coptic Bible has fifteen more books astonishing. j. Exodus 4.24-26 (The RSV agrees than the Protestant one! with this translation, the NEB is 7. There was a debate at a creationist vaguer). Some Conclusions. conference between heliocentrism and Back in the 1980s, I was one of a k. Isaiah 37.36; 2 Samuel 24.15. geocentrism (Bridgstock and Smith group of skeptics in Queensland who l. 1 Kings 7.23; 2 Chronicles 4.1 (the 1986:15). Apparently the geocentrists set out to combat the attempts of the NEB and RSV use cubits, but the lost the scientific argument, but won creation scientists to force funda- proportions are the same). the Biblical argument. mentalism into the science class- m. Leviticus 11.13-19. 8. Now part of Griffith University. rooms of our state. We thwarted the n. 1 Chronicles 16.30. 9. Stop sniggering. She certainly didn’t creationists — in large measure mean it like that! because of the help of the Australian o. Psalm 93.1. Skeptics — but I still remember p. Tobias 2.10-11. making a presentation at the Mount q. Tobias 11.13-15. Continued p 16 ...

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 11 Feature Quantum Quodlibet Part 1

Think you know nothing about an nature possibly be so absurd physicists to try and make sense of Cas it seemed to us in these it all, no matter what strange quantum physics? In fact you atomic experiments? — Werner corridors down which the evidence know even less Heisenberg might lead them? The goal of the present article is to raise awareness Skeptics vs Quantum Mechanics among skeptics as to why physicists Some Skeptics don’t like Quantum (sometimes) toy with seemingly Bent mechanics. They tend to write Spoon Award-worthy ideas, such as articles with titles like, “Quantum multiple universes and the moon not Quackery”1, trying to dispel myths really being there when no one is that have grown, like weeds, around looking at it. one of the most successful theories But before we go into the (weird) in physics. While 95%2 of these interpretations of quantum mechan- efforts should be applauded, every ics, it is advisable to first look at once in a while the author goes too some of the (for the most part) far, implying that quantum phenom- indisputable facts. ena are not weird but merely misun- derstood3. Some even suggest, The Three Mirror Experiment tongue-in-cheek, that physicists are The first experiment that we will turning into woolly-headed philoso- look at (shown in Figure 1) is very phers4. simple. A laser shoots a beam of But is this fair? If quantum light5 at Half-mirror 1. A half-mirror mechanics is weird, isn’t it the job of is a mirror that has only been half

Figure 1

Michael Lucht, at the macro level, is a Lecturer in Computing at the University of Tasmania. At the quantum level, he is far weirder than that.

Page 12 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 coated with silver, second half-silvered Figure 2 and hence it reflects mirror, as shown in half the light like a Figure 2. mirror, and transmits Now let us think half the light like a about what we would glass pane. Thus, half expect to happen, the light from the using the same laser is reflected reasoning as we have “upwards”, towards just applied to the Mirror 1, while the Three Mirror Experi- other half is trans- ment. The photon can mitted right towards either travel along Mirror 2. Mirrors 1 Path 1 or Path 2 and 2 are just ordi- (each with a 50% nary mirrors whose likelihood). If it sole purpose is to travels along Path 1, redirect the light it will eventually hit beams so that the Half-mirror 2, and light in Path 1 heads towards time. Furthermore, which detector a again have a 50% chance of being Detector 1 while the light in Path 2 photon arrives at is a completely reflected (towards Detector 2) or heads towards Detector 2. Although random event, except that on transmitted (towards Detector 1). If, the two beams cross each other, they average 50% of the photons will on the other hand, the photon do not influence each other in any arrive at Detector 1 and 50% at travels along Path 2, it will also way. This can be checked by moving Detector 2. In short, it is rather like have a 50% chance of being reflected Detector 1 to the left, so that the tossing a coin. (towards Detector 1) or transmitted beams no longer cross — it makes no If we think of photons as little (towards Detector 2). So overall, the difference to the results of the particles, this makes perfect sense7. insertion of Half-mirror 2 should not experiment6. One can image each photon having make a difference, and we would Speaking of the result of this a 50% chance of colliding with a therefore still expect to see 50% of experiment, what happens is that silver atom on the surface of Half- the photons at Detector 1 and 50% 50% of the light ends up at Detector mirror 1. If it does, then the photon at Detector 2. 1 and the other 50% at Detector 2. will bounce off and travel Path 1. If Wrong! To make things more interesting, it it misses the silver atoms, it will In fact what might9 happen is that is possible to turn down the inten- continue onwards along Path 2. that Detector 1 detects all the pho- sity of the laser really, really low, so Very simple. Very easy to imagine. tons while Detector 2 detects none! that it emits one photon at a time. And also, as we shall soon see, very But how is that possible? Simply Furthermore, it also is possible to wrong! put, if we think of photons as parti- make the detectors sensitive enough cles, it isn’t! But if we think of to detect individual photons. When The Four Mirror Experiment8 photons as waves, this result can be this is done, photons arrive at To see why our naive interpretation explained. To show this, let’s draw Detector 1 or Detector 2, but never of the previous experiment is faulty, light as a wave and take a closer at Detector 1 and 2 at the same we modify it slightly by adding a look at what happens at Half-mirror 2 and the detectors.

Figure 3

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 13 Quantum Quodlibet

In Figure 3a, we imagine the somehow “knows” that Half-mirror 2 cation between them can occur photon (as a wave) coming in from is present and behaves like a parti- because of the speed of light limit, ie, the left along Path 1. Now, when a cle/wave as appropriate? Particle 1 has no time to “tell” wave hits a half-reflective surface This possibility has been checked Particle 2 that, “my momentum has such as a half-mirror, it will not go through an experiment almost just been measured, so you must one way or the other like a particle, identical to the Four Mirror Experi- now mess up your position!” it will instead split in two, heading ment, except that now Half-mirror 2 Initially, the EPR experiment was (with reduced amplitude) for both can be inserted/removed at an just a thought experiment. However, Detectors 1 and 2. instant. Thus the choice whether to in 1964 John Bell made it possible Likewise in Figure 3b, where we insert (or not) Half-mirror 2 can be for it to be carried out in practice, by imagine the photon (as a wave) delayed until after the photon has discovering an inequality (now coming in from “below” along Path 2. left Half-mirror 1. In other words, named Bell’s Inequality) involving Again, the half-mirror causes the the photon is already underway in the measurements on Particles 1 wave to heads off towards both Path 1 or Path 2 or both, when we and 2 that must be obeyed, provided detectors. make that choice. that certain common-sense assump- So far, it appears that this does not As it turns out, delaying the tions about the world are true, most help us much in understanding why choice of whether Half-mirror 2 is in famously among them: Detector 1 receives all the photons or out makes no difference to the Realism: Realism assumes that the at- while Detector 2 receives none. outcome of the experiment. Hence tributes of particles like photons, elec- However, we have to bear in mind the strange behaviour of the photon trons and atoms exist even when they that the photon (as a wave) will also can’t be explained by saying that it are not being measured. For example, be splitting at Half-mirror 1. There- receives messages at Half-mirror 1, an electron has a position and a momen- fore we will have waves from both telling it how it should behave10. tum at all times, whether we measure Path 1 and Path 2 impacting on Half- This type of experiment is referred it or not. mirror 2 as shown in Figure 3c. to as a Wheeler’s Delayed Choice Locality: Locality requires that influ- The waves from Paths 1 and 2 Experiment11, after John Wheeler ences cannot travel faster than light. that head towards Detector 1 are who first proposed it. Non-locality is what Einstein objected identical. (They are in phase.) Hence to when he spoke of “spooky action at a they reinforce each other. On the The Aspect Experiment distance.” other hand, the waves from Paths 1 This experiment originated from the Experiments to test Bell’s equal- and 2 that head towards Detector 2 famous 1935 paper by Einstein, ity have been carried out, the most have crests and troughs that oppose Podolsky and Rosen (EPR) who famous of them being the Aspect each other exactly. (They are out of proposed it as a means to get around Experiment whose results were phase.) It is in the nature of waves Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle. published in 1982. It is easy to form that these will cancel each other out. The idea is simple: in some circum- the romantic notion that the name of Hence Detector 1 receives a big wave stances it is possible to create closely the experiment is what it is because (all the photons) while Detector 2 related particle pairs, which physi- it probes aspects of reality, but it receives no wave at all (not a single cists call entangled. For example, if actually just happened to have been photon). a stationary particle splits into two the name of the chief experimenter, The result of the Four Mirror (Particles 1 and 2), then the Alain Aspect. Experiment can thus be explained momenta and positions of the two But even if had been called the by thinking of a photon as a wave resulting particles must be equal “Smith Experiment”, its results that travels along both Paths 1 and and opposite. would still have been startling: Bell’s 2 and that it interferes with itself at Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Princi- inequality is being violated. So Half-mirror 2. Physicists call this ple claims that it is impossible to something has to give: Realism or behaviour, where one wave inter- determine both the position and the Locality. Take your pick! feres with another, interference. momentum of a particle with arbi- But wait a minute! In the Three trary accuracy. However, the EPR Other Experiments Mirror Experiment the photon paper makes the point that we ought travelled Path 1 or Path 2, but never In the famous Schrödinger’s Cat to be able to measure the momen- experiment, we have a cat in a box Path 1 and Path 2 at the same time. tum of Particle 1 and the position of It would therefore appear that whose survival depends upon a Particle 2, and thus end up with quantum event. For example, without Half-mirror 2 the photon accurate momentum and position behaves like a particle, and with consider the Three Mirror experi- data for both particles at the instant ment. A single photon is released. If Half-mirror 2 it behaves like a wave! of measurement. This assumes that How can we get ourselves out of it is detected at Detector 1, a poison the particles are far enough sepa- will be released that kills the cat. this paradox? Could it be, when the rated in space so that no communi- photon strikes Half-mirror 1, it (Luckily it is only a thought experi-

Page 14 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 ment.) If it is detected at Detector 2, such a way that Detectors 1 and 2 tional Interpretation of quantum nothing happens. Assuming that the both receive photons, even when the mechanics, as we shall see) is taking box is completely sealed, the ques- path information is erased. We the idea seriously enough to attempt tion arises: is the cat alive or dead? actually have to do a match-up an experiment that, if successful, This experiment is not meant to be between the measurements on the would violate causality!19 carried out, but it is useful to clarify idler photons and signal photons in one’s thinking about what quantum order for the interference to become Stay Tuned mechanics actually means for us in visible. The Delayed Choice Eraser This, the first part of the article, had the macro-world. Experiment hence suggests that to be reasonably technical, as It is possible to combine aspects of influences can travel backwards in discussing what quantum mechanics the EPR experiment and the Four time, but only in such a way that means without reference to actual Mirror experiment, by creating an causality is preserved. experiments becomes hopelessly entangled pair of photons — called a As for realism, it has lately been vague. The payoff will in the second signaller and an idler. The signaller at the business end of a thumping part of this article, where we will photon is passed through the Four from the Leggett Experiment14. This jump straight into the interpreta- Mirror Experiment while the idler experiment tests the Leggett in- tions of quantum mechanics. photon contains information that equality, which unlike the Bell Interpretations of quantum makes it possible to determine Inequality not only presents us with mechanics are attempts to explain which path (Path 1 or Path 2) the a choice between locality and real- what quantum mechanics (including signaller photon took. It turns out ism, but actually makes different the above experiments) mean for the that the interference between Path 1 predictions based on whether it is nature of physical reality. Questions and Path 2 vanishes (hence 50% of locality or realism that is being like: “is our universe deterministic?”, photons end up in Detector 1 and violated. The experiments under- “what is the role of consciousness?” 50% at Detector 2), even when the taken to date show that, “some and “what is the nature of time?” information to determine which path models based on nonlocal variables, The interpretations take us beyond the signaller photon went is only if subject to apparently ‘reasonable’ physics into the realm of metaphys- available in principle12. Further- constraints, may fail to reproduce ics. Specifically, in part two we will more, it is possible to erase the quantum physics” 15, ie, trying to find out how different interpreta- which-path information from the preserve realism leads to predictions tions answer the following three idler photon, in which case interfer- (based on ‘reasonable’ assumptions) mysteries: ence occurs again (ie, 100% of that do not match the results of the Mystery 1: What is the nature of the photons arrive at Detector 1 and 0% experiment. wave that interferes with itself in the 16 at Detector 2). This type of experi- The Afshar Experiment , first Four Mirror Experiment? ment is called a Quantum Eraser performed by Iranian-born physicist Experiment. Shahriar Afshar in 2001, claims to Mystery 2: At some point this wave will Matters become still stranger show (indirectly) that there is “collapse” because the detectors only de- when one combines a Quantum interference between Path 1 and tect whole photons and not partial ones. Eraser Experiment with Wheeler’s Path 2 (in the Four Mirror Experi- What causes this “collapse” from wave Delayed Choice Experiment to ment) while at the same time being to particle? Alternatively, could it be that create a Delayed Choice Quantum able to know which path the photon this “collapse” is only an illusion? Eraser Experiment13. In this experi- took17. There is still much debate in Mystery 3: In the Three Mirror experi- ment, the signaller photon arrives at the physics community as to what ment, the photon could be detected at the Detector 1 or 2 before the choice his experiment really means. Detector 1 or Detector 2. What deter- has been made whether to erase the Finally, in 1998 Birgit Dopfer, a mines which detector it is detected at? path information from the idler PhD student from the University of photon. At first sight this seems to Innsbruck, Germany, carried out a References and Notes create a time-travel paradox, be- version of the Quantum Eraser cause what happens if a photon is Experiment (which I will refer to as [1] Shermer, M. (2005). Quantum detected at Detector 2 and we the Dopfer Experiment) that used a Quackery, Scientific American subsequently choose to erase the new form of entanglement18. This 292(1):34 and also ref [3] path information from the idler type of entanglement appears to [2] Yes, exactly 95%! photon, which should make it leave open the possibility of sending [3] Stenger, Victor J. (1997). Quan- impossible for the photon to reach messages not merely instantane- tum Quackery, Skeptical Inquirer, Detector 2? ously, but backwards in time! While Vol. 21, No. 1, e-print at Luckily for causality, this situa- this sounds like science fiction, www.csicop.org/si/9701/quantum- tion cannot occur, because the distinguished physicist John G. quackery.html. The author claims: experiment has to be constructed in Cramer (the inventor of the Transac- “no compelling argument or evidence

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 15 Quantum Quodlibet

requires that quantum mechanics ... www.arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0610241 ... Bible from p 11 provides instantaneous, holistic [12] For example: Gogo, A. et al. connections across the universe.” (2005). Comparing quantum and Bibliography. (The ellipsis denote text deleted by classical correlations in a quantum me.) The Aspect Experiment, as we eraser, Phys. Rev. A, , 71, 052103, e- Barr, James (1984): Escaping from shall see, begs to differ. print at people.whitman.edu/ Fundamentalism. London, SCM Press. [4] Bakker, Gary (2008). Evidence ~beckmk/papers/papers.html. Bridgstock, Martin (1986): What is the Based Psychotherapy, The Skeptic, Quoting: “In order to see interference Creation Science Foundation? In Vol 28, No. 1 there must be no way (even in Bridgstock, Martin and Smith, Ken (eds) Creationism: An Australian [5] In this article I will talking about principle) to determine the polarisa- Perspective. Melbourne. Australian light/photons. It should be kept in tion.” (The authors used polarisation Skeptics. mind that “matter” particles like to determine the path that the electrons and atoms display the same photon took.) Bridgstock Martin (2008) Skeptical wave/particle duality (as proven by [13] For a double-slit version of this Ethics: What Should We Investigate? experiments). experiment see: Walborn, S. P. et al. Skeptical Inquirer May/June, 32, 3: 35- 39 [6] Strictly speaking this is a simpli- (2002). A double-slit quantum eraser, fication, as quantum electrodynamics Phys. Rev. 65, 033818, e-print at Bridgstock, Martin and Smith, Ken: allows for photon-photon scattering. grad.physics.sunysb.edu/~amarch/ (1986) Creationism is not the End! In However the influence of this effect Walborn.pdf Bridgstock, Martin and Smith, Ken on this kind of experiment is negligi- [14] Aspelmeyer, Markus and (eds) Creationism: An Australian ble. Zeilinger, Anton (2008). A Quantum Perspective. Melbourne. Australian Skeptics. [7] This being only one of many Renaissance, Physics World Vol 21 Good News Bible (1988) Australian pieces of evidence (for example, the No. 7, e-print at physicsworld.com/ Edition. Canberra: The Bible Society in photoelectric effect) of the particle cws/article/print/34774 Australia Inc. nature of light. [15] Branciard, Cyril et al. (2007). McRay, J. R. (1986) Canon in W. H. [8] This experiment is more conven- Experimental Falsification of Gentz (ed) The Dictionary of Bible and tionally known as the “Interferom- Leggett’s Nonlocal Variable Model, Religion. Nashville, Abingdon Press pp. eter”. But would the Double Slit Phys. Rev. Lett. 99, 210407 177-179 experiment have become as prevalent [16] Chown, Marcus (2004). Quan- in popular science books, had it been tum rebel, New Scientist 183 (2457): The New English Bible (1975) Seventh referred to as the “Slitoferometer”? 30–35. Impression. Oxford and Cambridge. The Bible Societies in Association with [9] Exactly what proportion of [17] Actually, his experiment is based Oxford University Press and Cambridge photons will end up at Detector 1 and on the Double Slit Experiment not University Press. 2 will depend on the details of the the Interferometer, but since I did experimental setup such as: the not discuss the double slit, I am Revised Standard Version of The Holy relative pathlengths, half wave using Interferometer language to Bible (1971) Nashville, Camden and plates inserted into the path and the describe his results. New York. Thomas Nelson. arrangement of the mirrors. The [18] B. Dopfer, PhD Thesis. (1998). Saint Joseph New Catholic Edition of article describes an extreme case, Univ. Innsbruck, e-print at the Holy Bible (1962) New York. Catholic which best dramatises the idea. www.quantum.univie.ac.at/publica- Publishing Co. [10] Unless these messages go tions/thesis/ (in German) Shorto, Russell (1997): Gospel Truth. backwards in time. See Transactional [19] Cramer, John G. (2006). EPR The New Image of Jesus Emerging from Interpretation in Pt 2. Communication: Signals from the Science and History, and Why It [11] For example: Jacques, V. et al. Future?, Analog Science Fiction and Matters. New York. Riverhead books. (2007). Experimental realization of Fact, December, e-print at Spong, John S.(1991) Rescuing the Wheeler’s gedankenexperiment, www.analogsf.com/0612/ Bible from Fundamentalism. San Science 315 966, e-print at altview.shtml Francisco. HarperSanFrancisco.

National Convention Adelaide, October 11-12

Page 16 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 Report The Amaz!ng Meeting

Adventures among Skeptics strophysicist Dr Neil deGrasse Thursday Tyson closed his keynote speech in Las Vegas A Day One, started out ordinarily with a newspaper clipping that read, enough, when Saunders and I were “Meeting of physicists in town, collected at the airport by a limou- lowest casino take ever.” In 1986 the sine. The festivities were already American Physical Society held their underway, with a workshop con- annual conference in Las Vegas. ducted by Ben Radford, Managing With thousands of physicists in Editor of Skeptical Inquirer. “The town, the casinos reported their Real X-Files: Scientific Paranormal lowest takings ever, and the organi- Investigations” offered an antidote sation was asked to never return. As to the plethora of television shows I looked around the room full of that imply an investigation requires skeptics who know that gambling is a camera, an EMF reader, a pendu- a tax for people who can’t do maths, lum, and psychic abilities. In con- I knew that the casinos were in for trast, Radford taught that the another slow weekend… skeptical investigator must establish This report features highlights the claim itself, then undertake from the seminars of invited guest appropriate research, testing and speakers at The Amaz!ng Meeting 6. analysis, all with the application of Better known as TAM, this is a critical thinking. However, evidence conference hosted by the James collected from the conference sug- Randi Educational Foundation. TAM gests that Radford is a skeptical 6 was held at the Flamingo Hotel imposter. Circling the internet is and Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. It photographic proof that he can was summertime there, in the levitate like some sort of Turkish middle of the Mojave Desert, and a fakir. mild 104°F (40°C). Mentalist Banachek ran the The world’s foremost conference workshop “Master Mnemonic for skeptics, the 2008 line-up was Memory”, in which he taught mne- impressive, featuring Dr deGrasse monic techniques for memorising Tyson, Dr PZ Myers and Dr Ben lists and numbers, including the Goldacre, and a host of TAM regu- Loci, Link, Peg and Major Systems. lars, including Adam Savage of Banachek is best known for his Mythbusters, Penn & Teller, Dr participation in the Project Alpha Michael Shermer and Dr Phil Plait. experiments in which he convinced There was an exciting addition to scientists that he possessed psychic the schedule of events; our own powers. Richard Saunders. Even Sylvia Following these optional work- Karen Stollznow, a long time contributor, will Browne was in Vegas, but sadly, we shops there was a welcoming recep- return to Australia in early 2009 to take the reins missed John Edward by a few tion. During this event, an as Editor of the Skeptic. weeks.

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 17 The Amaz!ng Meeting unfortunate female attendee fainted. equivalent of a universe-sised sphere Dr Neil deGrasse Tyson is an Somebody shouted, “Is there a filled with water, containing a single astrophysicist, Director of the medical doctor in the house?” (At molecule of the diluted substance. Hayden Planetarium at the Ameri- these conferences full of PhDs, such According to homeopathic theory, can Museum of National History, requests need to be specific.) At least water has a “memory” of the ‘active’ and the “Sexiest astronomer alive”, 9 MDs ran to her aid. ingredient. Goldacre countered that according to People Magazine. (Phil Afterwards, some attended homeopathic remedies must have Plait claimed “the contest was “Mathemagic”, a show with Dr Art the “memory of sugar. They’re sugar rigged”.) Tyson presented his key- Benjamin, a mathematician and note address, “Adventures in Scien- magician who can perform math- tific Illiteracy”. The talk was ematical calculations faster than a alternatively titled, “Brain Drop- calculator. Benjamin demonstrated pings of a Skeptic”, with an obvious how he has memorised dozens of nod to George Carlin. (Who died that digits of Pi using the Major System. very weekend. There must be a (Others, not mentioning any names, conspiracy theory in there some- attended a scotch and cigar party.) where.) This was a fast-paced, eclectic commentary with “no Friday coherence, just droppings of a Day Two, and Master of Ceremonies professional scientist, not a profes- Hal Bidlack introduced the Meeting, sional skeptic.” describing the attendees as “a Tyson touched upon his role in community of friends.” This was demoting Pluto to Plutoid, and told followed by a welcome from James any dissenters to “get over it”. Randi, who was quick to observe, Moving on quickly, he mused that “‘Friends’ always makes me think of UFO aficionados should be “re- the Quakers”. Randi welcomed us to minded of what the U stands the “mayhem about to ensue”, and for…Unidentified!” The eyewitness insisted on meeting all attendees sees an inexplicable object, yet then personally, “although not all at suddenly claims to know what it once!” Randi made a special mention was, and what it wasn’t, “but you of his non-Quaker friend, Jerry didn’t know what it was!” He also Andrus, a magician, illusionist and advised future victims of alien abduction and “weird sex experi- Renaissance man who died last year. Neil deGrasse Tyson - the sexy astronomer Randi spoke about him with sad- ments” to bring back a token as ness, and asked us all to visit a lone pills.” He further wondered at the proof, “like an ashtray”, because tribute table at the rear of the room, notion that water remembers the anecdotes are not good enough; featuring a photograph of Andrus. remedy, “but not Nelson’s bum or the “Eyewitness testimony is the lowest “Go up and touch the photo. It’s just Queen’s bladder or Hitler’s eyeball”. form of evidence in the court of this little thing I have,” he ex- This is reputedly solved by succuss- science.” plained. I thought this was a poign- ion, “bang it ten times firmly” and Conspiracy Theories tacitly admit ant display of how emotion can bring the ‘memory’ magically comes into insufficient data to prove a point. out a little superstition-like rever- effect. Tyson advises the skeptic to say, ence in all of us. Goldacre observed that the “Come back when you have data”, Bad Science columnist Dr Ben standard anti-homeopathy argu- and suggests that if an argument Goldacre (www.badscience.net) was ments have been circulating since lasts longer than five minutes, both the first speaker, and the first beset Queen Victoria’s physician John sides are wrong! Tyson touched upon by technical problems. “Last night Forbes made claims about the the Forer Effect; that a randomly nine physicians ran to help a woman supposed efficacy of homeopathy. selected astrology reading will who fainted. I wonder if I’d get a Homeopathy tests and trials are resonate with approximately two- quicker response if I cried, ‘My “window dressing” in these days of thirds of people. He also broke the laptop won’t boot. Is there a compu- evidence-based medicine. The shocking news that most Scorpios ter expert in the house?’” He lec- method doesn’t perform any better are really Ophiuchans. As for full tured on “Squabbles about Homeo- than a placebo, and is about as moon syndrome, if your behaviour pathy”. This theory of “like cures effective as “hanging goat entrails becomes crazy during a full moon, like” involves the use of absurdly around your neck”, and other folk it’s because you are; the pressure on extreme dilutions. Goldacre noted remedies. However, homeopathy is the cranium of an extra pillow is that a 55C dilution would be the still the ‘drug’ of choice of the British some trillion times greater than the Royal family. effect of tidal force.

Page 18 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 Tyson moved straight on to design theory, “God did it!” has people from Satan. Instead, he was terminal cancer, noting that statis- historically stopped further scientific receiving messages from his wife, tics vary, and doctors provide differ- inquiry. “But it’s really stupid and delivering people from their ent views on survival rates. Should design. We have volcanos, tsunamis, cash. Posing as a janitor, Jason someone outlive their diagnosis, floods and tornados. Earth is trying attended a healing event and em- they tend to believe some “invisible to kill us.” Our bodies are trying to ployed a surveillance device that force” cured them, rather than kill us too, we must eat constantly, detects covert audio communica- attributing this to the vagaries of we’re warm blooded, we suffer vision tions. He soon heard muffled foot- statistics, or misdiagnosis. Natu- loss with age, our teeth fall out, and, steps. Then, ‘God’ spoke to Popoff rally, this topic led to swami levita- “Our sewerage system is next to our (and Jason) and He said: “Hello tion. No law of physics prevents this entertainment complex. What’s up Petey!” Jason explained, “God’s phenomenon. In fact, it invokes with that?” frequency sounded like Popoff’s Newton’s Second Law. According to Tyson revealed that some 7% of wife.” Elizabeth Popoff continued, Tyson, consuming only 1000 tins of the world’s most elite scientists are “Can you hear me? If you can’t, baked beans would generate suffi- religious. If we don’t understand you’re in trouble!” The real trouble cient methane gas to achieve levita- why this group is religious, he was that not only could Petey hear, tion. (Hence Radford’s experiments.) argued, we can’t blame the general but Jason could too. Mrs Popoff Tyson reminded us that in proceeded to provide her 2003, Earth was the closest it husband with names, had been to Mars in 60 000 address details, family years. This incited the “Mars information, illnesses and Virus”, an ill-founded public even seat numbers, all panic that this ‘nearness’ collected hot reading style would lead to Mars colliding from the audience prior to with Earth, or that people the show. Throughout the would need to wear sun- performance, she guided him glasses at night while driving. to these unwitting stooges. To demonstrate the true After collecting hours of difference in proximity, Tyson proof across the United hopped several feet west and States, Randi exposed Popoff cried, “I’ve never been so close on Johnny Carson’s Tonight to Japan!” Show. Popoff initially denied Tyson moved energetically the deception, then admitted from topic to topic, landing his deceit, but defended his upon gambling superstitions, Richard Saunders and Phil Plait view ‘the other side’ actions by comparing his and noting that our hotel was ministry to a TV game show. without a 13th floor. He called gam- public for being religious. He criti- The situation sent him bankrupt, bling “a tax on the innumerate”, and cised the Bible’s encroachment upon but today, Popoff is worth more than similarly attributed the subprime the science classroom, and observed ever at some $24 million per annum. mortgage problems to mathematical that scientists don’t picket in front of Clearly, his charitable followers have illiteracy. He relayed that he was churches demanding equal time for forgiven, and forgotten. dismissed from jury duty once when science. “I’ve got the universe to Magicians Penn & Teller call he explained that he lectures “a worry about!” he quipped. Tyson themselves “a couple of eccentric course on evaluating evidence and ended his whirlwind talk by suggest- guys who have learned to do a few the unreliability of eyewitness ing that the biblical “the meek shall cool things.” Bounding onto the testimony.” He lamented the stifling inherit the earth” is an inaccurate stage, P&T engaged in a quick and influence of religion on scientific translation. “It is the geek who shall dirty Q&A session. When asked research, citing Islamic theologian inherit the Earth!” he cried, to a what their greatest achievement is, Algazel’s claim, “that manipulating standing ovation of hundreds of Penn responded, “bringing breasts numbers is the work of the devil.” geeks. and obscenities to the public.” An He bemoaned inaccuracy and the Crime Scene Analyst Alec Jason is attendee asked about the magicians’ lack of critical thinking in advertis- a specialist in shooting incident subjects on their skeptical television ing, for example, a billboard stating, reconstruction and blood splatter series Bullshit! “Do these people “Big Bang Theory? You’ve got to be interpretation. In 1986, he took time know they’re going to be made fun Kidding — God”. out to expose Peter Popoff. This of?” Penn replied, “We offer full Tyson mused that “God” as televangelist claimed to receive disclosure of what we do. These explanation halts further investiga- messages directly from God, that he people aren’t ambushed or lied to. tion. As a simplistic intelligent could heal the sick, and deliver We don’t do Sasha Baron Cohen or

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 19 The Amaz!ng Meeting

Michael Moore. We’re trying to be Psychic. The Mystery Investigator that we learn by association “be- fair, and extremely biased.” proceeded to conduct a simple cause we are pattern-seeking pri- A bit of a stir was created when dowsing test to demonstrate how mates” who relish “connecting the someone asked Penn if he denied educators can examine paranormal dots”. For example, we might at- human-caused global warming. and pseudoscientific phenomena tribute healing to alternative medi- Penn truthfully responded, “I just with their students. This is where cine or prayer, “what you did just don’t know”, and the talk took a my notes end, because I became part before you got better gets the credit.” political turn as he reinforced his of the show! Saunders introduced me Shermer reinforced that supersti- well-known disdain for Al Gore. to the stage as his assistant. Six tious thought is powerful; people Saturday speaker Sharon Begley teachers were chosen from the believe in hidden forces at work, and seized this comment as a denial of fill gaps with gods. fact, based on emotion rather than Sharon Begley is a Senior rationale, and the two have been Editor for Newsweek who brings embroiled in a heated online re- science to the people with her sponse-war ever since. The session accessible articles. Her talk was closed with a showing of The Cold entitled, “Creationism and other Reader, a short film by Jeff Levine, weird beliefs: The role of the based on an excellent story by press.” This included the caveat, Matthew Simmons (failbetter.com/ “Don’t get your hopes up”. Begley 12/SimmonsCold.php). cited the curious case of the Muso George Hrab then played Tichborne Claimant. Presumed an interlude of skeptical songs. Like dead after an accident at sea, a Led Zeppelin concert, Hrab remarkably, Sir Roger Tichborne beseeched everyone to wave their Mythbuster Adam Savage emerged some twelve years later. geek-version of the cigarette lighter, However, the thin gentleman had the laser pointer. Hrab performed audience, and each attempted to grown extremely fat, his black hair again later that night, along with locate an exposed water source using had turned brown, his blue eyes had atheist Hip Hop artist Greydon dowsing rods. The ‘best dowser’ was turned brown (iridology, perhaps?), Square. selected to replicate the test, but he he had completely lost his once Biology Professor and author of failed to locate the water in subse- fluent French, and this English man the blog Pharyngula, (scienceblogs. quent blind and double blind tests. was ‘found’ in Wagga Wagga. Despite com/pharyngula) PZ Myers is most these suspicious discrepancies, the infamous for his (non-) attendance of Saturday grieving Lady Tichborne embraced a screening of Expelled: No Intelli- Dr Michael Shermer of the Skeptics her ‘son’, and awarded him an gence Allowed. Recognised as he Society opened the Saturday lec- allowance of £1000 per year. Begley waited patiently in the queue, he tures with a trinity of topics. used this example, of a willingly was refused entry into this Creation- Shermer spoke of a project he gullible woman who accepted a ist propaganda film. However, his worked on in conjunction with the blatant pretender, to illustrate her companion was permitted to enter, Templeton Foundation. Shermer point that we are prone to credulity, unrecognised. Ironically, his com- both edited and contributed to Does and readily fool ourselves. panion was Richard Dawkins. Myers Science make belief in God obsolete? Begley discussed the responsibil- presented a lecture on evolutionary (templeton.org/belief). The work ity and effectiveness of the press in developmental biology, “Evo-Devo, a includes replies from Victor Stenger, educating the public against the natural miracle”. This is “the control Christopher Hitchens and Stephen paranormal and pseudoscientific. of development by ecology,” and not Pinker. Shermer then showed a Her glaring message was, “If you’re “angels nudging cells”. To illustrate snippet of The Skeptologists. This counting on the press you’re bound his points, Myers provided examples pilot television series features to be disappointed”. She explained of the development of bats’ wings, Shermer, Steven Novella, Yau-Man that the media have no responsibil- and explained how bats are “rodents Chan, Phil Plait, and host Brian ity to educate, and journalists feel with wings. Mouse-like becomes bat- Dunning of the Skeptoid podcast. obliged to provide politically and like in step-by-step changes of slight, Like Bullshit!, but sans expletives, culturally ‘balanced’ coverage. Most elegant differences and fine-tuning”. these Skeptologists investigate of all, the scientific ignorance of the Richard Saunders is…well, you hauntings, alternative medicine American public is endemic, “Folk know who he is! Saunders did us claims and more, from a skeptical beliefs are common, but common proud, promoting the Australian perspective. sense is not common.” Skeptics, and discussing his role as Shermer closed by discussing a Dr Steven Novella is Director of token Skeptic on The One: The new book in the works, Why people General Neurology at Yale, host of Search for Australia’s Most Gifted believe unseen things. He explained Skeptic’s Guide to the Universe

Page 20 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 podcast, and author of the blog Jim Underdown of the Center for Like a troubled teenager, Jupiter is Neurologica (theness.com/ Inquiry, LA. Randi briefly delved “breaking out” in planetary acne, neurologicablog/). Novella presented into his rift with CSICOP (now CSI), known as The Great Red Spot, a the talk, “Dualism and Creation- when mounting law suits led them 400-year old hurricane. More re- ism”, revealing the similarities to ask Randi to abandon his pursuit cently, Jupiter has developed an- between believers of Creationism of Uri Geller. Randi, a founding other ‘pimple’ that is bigger than and proponents of Cartesian Dual- member of the group, offered the Earth itself. This is another storm, ism. Novella presented bullet point olive branch to CSI, “Let’s forgive Red Jr, also known as the Oval BA. form evidence from neuroscience to and forget”, he said. “Can we kiss (Could this be a reference to the Bad illustrate the mainstream material- and make up?” Astronomer?) ism stance: “Brain anatomy and Dr Phil Plait debunks pseudo- Uranus is askew. The planet is activity correlates with mental science of astronomical proportions. tipped over 98 degrees in its orbit, activity. There is no mind without His talk began with a piece of likely due to an impact from some- the brain. Brain development pareidolia he’d found at the break- thing Earth-sized. Neptune contains correlates with mental development. fast table the day before, a ‘smiling’ mega doses of methane, emanates If you damage the brain, you 1.6 times the heat it damage the mind, and receives from the Sun, and personality is merely the has 2200km per hour meat talking to itself. winds. However, “Pluto is Different states of conscious- not a planet so we don’t ness correlate with different care,” pouted Plait in brain states. Turn off the reference to deGrasse brain and you turn off the Tyson’s comment above. mind. The mind doesn’t He concluded by saying survive the death of the that there’s a lot we don’t brain.” know about the universe, What is consciousness? but this doesn’t mean we There are no simple an- don’t know anything. “The swers. Novella provided his SI Managing Editor, Ben Radford, surrounded by Oz delegation, the Author, universe is cool enough “Best shot, but it is not Richard Saunders and Michael Wolloghan without making up crap definitive. Consciousness is the watermelon. Phil von Trapp pro- about it. That’s why I’m a skeptic.” moment to moment functioning of ceeded to share, “A few of my favour- Special Effects wizard and the brain, when it is processing ite things,” a not-so-boring slide Mythbusters co-host Adam Savage information reflectively and present- show of staggering facts about our also teaches model making at the ing this to the part of the brain that solar system. He displayed an image San Francisco Academy of Art. His is paying attention. We are trying to of Mercury’s “Hot Bowl”, the Caloris talk was related to this latter talent. assess our consciousness with our Basin, a 3.8 billion year old crater In the tirade “My Maltese Falcon”, he consciousness.” Novella admitted that is 1550km in diameter and spoke of his adventures in replicating that this inadequate definition often directly faces the sun in its a dodo bird skeleton, a whip from the “opens the door for paranormalists”. orbit. Venus is like Earth in size, Indiana Jones movies, and his latest He drew parallels between creation- and contains about the same amount quest… to create the world’s most ism and dualism; “Creationism is of carbon, but that’s about it. It has accurate replica of the Maltese the denial of evolution, and dualism a runaway greenhouse effect, a Falcon from the film of the same is the denial of neuroscience. This is balmy climate of some 900°F (480°C) name. Savage painstakingly repli- the denial that we’re chunks of meat and showers of sulphuric acid, cated this sculpture. He researched because it’s not a pleasing or aes- “Venus is hell. It’s an awful, awful the original’s measurements, he thetic answer”. place.” examined photographs, and freeze- During a brief interlude, Randi Phobos, a moon of Mars, orbits in framed stills from the movie to discussed the end of the Million reverse to other moons in the solar scrutinise the original from every Dollar Challenge in 2010 (a move system. Phobos is gouged out by angle. His replica is made from lead, that will place our $100,000 award Stickney, an enormous crater with a coated in 75 layers of black paint at the forefront of such challenges in diameter of 9km. Had the impact of enamel, cast in bronze and weighs 27 the global community of skeptics). the culprit been any greater, this pounds, although the bronze casting Randi mused that his Challenge had moon might have disintegrated. But process reduced the length of the “done its job”, and that the money it won’t be a happy ending after all. beak by three quarters of an inch, will be better spent elsewhere for Phobos might collide with Mars in frustrating Savage no end. the JREF. He then accepted a some 50 million years, or likely His talk ended with a few short Lifetime Achievement award from break down into a planetary ring. movies. Adam and his Mythbusters

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 21 The Amaz!ng Meeting co-star Jamie solve a Rubik’s cube, even 28 Nobel Laureates. However, treat their beliefs and arguments. blindfolded, with their feet! (Not the year grows old, and the election Randi recommended a softly, softly that this was filmed backwards at draws near. approach to skepticism, to “win the all). He showed a movie where he Psychologist and magician Richard individuals”. When asked if anyone alternately breathed in helium, Wiseman presented an optical had been harassed by believers, resulting in a high-pitched voice, illusion of Margaret Thatcher, Saunders admitted that he’d been with an intake of sulphur- debunked the “God Man” of India, labelled a “Mouseketeer of Evil,” hexafluoride, producing an amus- Sai Baba, and showed his famous and, “A pimple on the arsehole of ingly deep voice. He closed with Colour Changing Card Trick time.” Steven Novella observed that “Explosive Porn”, out-takes from (quirkology.com) that illustrates a a boon of being a skeptic is, “You Mythbusters, where the bloopers are phenomenon known as “change never get haunted, or abducted.” a literal blast. blindness”. This was followed by a Daniel Loxton of Skeptic magazine’s Matthew Chapman is a director video explaining the making of the Junior Skeptic spoke glowingly and prolific writer on the creation- movie that took some 60+ takes. about the Australian Skeptics, evolution debate, including his book Unexpectedly, the class of 900 took a acknowledging our strong, cohesive 40 Days and 40 Nights about the lesson in spoon bending from Teller, organisation in the face of lacklustre Kitzmiller v. Dover trial, which he who taught us the art of misdirection, overseas movements. witnessed as a journalist. Did I and how to deceive the mind, all Yet again, next year’s TAM will be forget to mention that he is also the wrapped up in an anecdote about how in Las Vegas, July 9-12th 2009. TAM great-great grandson of Charles he once inadvertently bent a spoon 7 will be held at the South Point Darwin? Chapman mused that from his hostess’ priceless cutlery set. Casino, a hotel so brand new that it paranormal beliefs are more prolific Even more unexpectedly, Wiseman hasn’t even been built yet. in the US than Europe. He shared a arranged for a mass spoon bending of With some 900 attendees, TAM 6 few anecdotes, such as the time he some 800 prestressed spoons. Coach- was bigger than ever before. A quick attended a channelling of the spirit ing us beforehand, Wiseman wise- show of hands revealed that many “Basha” at a Malibu beach house. cracked, “I can’t imagine this going were first-timers. This meeting Chapman thought it was a joke, wrong”, and of course, it did. Reading suggested that there is no ‘face’ of until he realised no one else seemed an ‘idiot board’, most of the audience skepticism. Different nationalities in on it. One credulous woman muttered aloud the directions, “Slap. and ethnicities were represented. asked, “I have a potential deal at Hold. Wiggle. Drop.” Needless to say, The attendees were young and old, Warner Brothers. What is Basha’s the edited version is now available at with facial hair, or without. advice?” Chapman discovered spoonscience.com, “a resource for The Amaz!ng Meeting 6 was a Skeptical Inquirer and soon became sharing amusing, exciting or unusual conference of inspiring seminars, a skeptic. He once found himself in science videos, particularly those and speakers who offered searing an elevator with Randi at UCLA. which utilise everyday objects”. insights. The event provided skepti- Making small talk, he asked Randi if At this point, NSW Committee cal fortification to enable everyone to the magician had heard about a member Michael Wolloghan and I return to a non-skeptical world for now-forgotten Brazilian went in search of the missing another year, but hopefully to make paranormalist who emitted fire from Saunders. Smarterthanthat.com a difference. his fingers. Randi replied, “Don’t be scientist Mooeypoo conducted an ridiculous! He’s a scammer,” and experiment to explain the Shroud of Thanks countered the claim by pulling a pen Turin; a test that involved Saunders With thanks to Dean Baird and Michael out of his own ear. taking a pie in the face, for science. Wolloghan for contributing the Concerned that the current Since then, jet lag had kicked in, appropriately Amaz!ng photographs. political climate has avoided tack- and he had disappeared to catch ling issues of science, Chapman forty winks. Reputedly, there is a established Science Debate 2008 photo somewhere online showing (sciencedebate2008.com). This him asleep under a table. Fortunately, he made it to the initiative aims to entice the presi- In breaking news, it was announced panel, “The Limits of Skepticism”, dential candidates to debate issues at the time of writing that Dr Phil where panellists responded to regarding the environment, health Plait has been dubbed President of audience questions. Banachek urged and medicine, and science and the James Randi Educational Foun- skeptics to not be offensive, to not technology policy. The organisation dation (JREF), effective immediately. attack believers, but to inform has created a list of 14 debate Randi is not retiring, but has as- people in an interesting and enter- questions, and collected support sumed the role of Chairman of the taining way. Radford appealed to the from over 50,000 signatories, includ- JREF Board, and will be dedicating audience to “understand the ing government and business more time to his writing projects. leaders, universities, scientists and mindset” of believers, as a way to

Page 22 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 Report Area 51: The Truth is Out There?

A journey into the heartland — as Vegas is a glitzy, glamorous Accompanying us on the tour in of conspiracy L yet slightly cheesy desert the SUV were two older gentlemen; playground that continues to be one a scrawny, quiet New Yorker and a of the fastest growing cities in large, jolly and gentle “believer” in America. After attending The UFOs who had seen something Amaz!ng Meeting 6, testing my luck strange in the skies as a young boy. at various casinos, gorging myself at It didn’t take us long to escape the buffets, avoiding upscale boutiques, hustle and bustle of Las Vegas and watching the spectacular Penn and enter into the stark natural wonders Teller show and being blinded by of the desert. Images of Clint neon lights, I felt I needed to get Eastwood riding bucking bronchus away from the chic, sleaze and slot in a rough and tough manner raced machines. through my mind until our tour Many tourists do day tours to the guide started asking if we believed Grand Canyon, Death Valley or the in extraterrestrials and made some Hoover Dam. However, I thought I hammy UFO jokes. would do something a little different. The tour guide briefly discussed Area 51, also known as Dream- Bob Lazar. Lazar, an alleged physi- land, is one of the most mysterious cist, claimed he worked at Area 51 top secret military test facilities in studying extraterrestrial space craft. the world. It is located about 90 However, Lazar has never been able miles north of Las Vegas. The US to provide any evidence proving his government maintains a stony fantastical tales and has been silence on the nature of this air base, caught lying about his educational and since the 1950s, Area 51 has background. Nevertheless, true been surrounded by UFO conspira- believers disregard the critics and cies and rumours of governmental claim conspiracy theories and cover cover-up. ups exist. Naturally, being an adventurous As we whizzed along the vast traveller, X-Files fan and skeptic, desert highway, our tour guide when I heard of the Area 51 perim- added some atmosphere by playing eter tour, I booked immediately. eerie, ethereal and evocative music. Our tour guide picked us up early Firstly, soundtracks by Mark Snow in the morning at our hotel. Al- (composer for the X Files TV series) though he was a little late, his were played followed by some Michael Wolloghan is a member of the NSW warmth and exuberant enthusiasm hypnotic, repetitive electronica by Committee and is a reporter for the TANK became contagious and allayed Jean-Michel Jarre. Vodcast. concerns. His name was Michael. Our first stop was an odd natural www.tankvodcast.wordpress.com Short, slightly chubby with salt and rock formation which looked like the [email protected] pepper hair. head of a “grey” extraterrestrial.

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 23 Area 51

Naturally, we all laughed and and that security were author- took pictures of the strange ised to use deadly force. formation and momentarily Walking across the unfenced took in the solitude of the military border results in an desert. immediate arrest, a night in We continued our scenic prison and a fine of $600. drive, stopping to look at some Private security guards who faded ancient American patrol the perimeter monitored Indian petroglyphs that us from a four wheel drive resembled extraterrestrials. perched on one of the moun- Erich von Daniken, the author tains, and several motion of the book Chariots of the detectors were noticeably Gods?, has speculated these located around the area. types of artistic carvings in Highway to nowhere Whilst you cannot see the base rock may have represented its apparent that security and extraterrestrials that visited Luckily we stopped for lunch at secrecy are paramount. Earth in the past. Fortunately, none the quaint Little A’Le’Inn diner The soundtrack to the seminal of the people on the tour believed in before I got a headache from the sci-fi film Close Encounters of the the erroneous speculations of von chronic blathering. Third Kind blasted from our SUV as Dåniken. The Little A’Le’Inn diner is we took pictures and walked around The Delamar dry lakebed was our situated in the barren township of the area. We didn’t see any jaw next stop. This large, desolate area Rachel, Nevada, and has been dropping flying saucers or hideous has been used as an emergency around for 20 years. After enjoying alien creatures in the distance, but landing strip by the US Air Force for one of the world famous Alien perhaps they had rendered them- many years. As we walked around Burgers at the diner I looked at the selves invisible or maybe we had our the unusually hard, beautiful numerous UFO and Area 51 related memories wiped. cracked surface of the lakebed, our products for sale. The walls of the After we completed the final tour guide told us of having seen diner were covered with fuzzy or highlight of our tour we drove back low-flying military aircraft in the completely out of focus pictures of into bustling Las Vegas listening to area in the past. UFOs taken in the local area. Jeff Wayne’s dramatic musical Unfortunately, we didn’t end up Unsurprisingly, the diner is a place version of The War of the Worlds. seeing a stealth plane, “black air- for ufologists and conspiracy enthu- The tour was a guilty pleasure I craft”, or an inexplicable alien siasts to swap ideas on the secret thoroughly enjoyed, but it’s always spaceship doing frenetic aerial intentions and agendas of aliens. important to distinguish fact from manoeuvres. However, as we drove After purchasing some kitsch fiction. Conspiracy theorists con- out of the lakebed, a large group of alien memorabilia, our group headed tinue to promote underwhelming off-road military vehicles appeared. off to the infamous Area 51 mailbox, information about alleged extrater- Michael, our tour guide, anxiously before heading down the bumpy, restrials collaboration with govern- stopped our SUV and asked one of dusty dirt road to the perimeter ments. the drivers what was occurring. entrance signs for “Dreamland”. Unsophisticated speculation “Military stuff” the driver tersely When we arrived at the entrance amongst ufologists about what stated — and drove off. Our tour we were told to stay at least three occurs at Area 51 will certainly group ruminated over what might feet in front of the large signs continue. Hollywood exploits the have been occurring. Klingon trade stating that it was a restricted area general public’s fascination with negotiations? extraterrestrials and creates Speeding down the aptly legend and lore about the named Extraterrestrial High- secret world of “Dreamland”. way, and stopping to take a It’s not difficult to accept picture of the wacky road sign, experimental US aircraft are we listened to audio rants and developed and tested at the raves of paranoid conspiracy base. The X Files and Stargate buffs — alien races hell-bent SG-1 are entertaining and on destroying humanity; global exciting to watch on television, conspiracies; interstellar, but the reality of these infa- inter- dimensional cabals; the mous clandestine military new world order; the apoca- bases seems far less interest- lypse; and the need for fully- ing than their fictional coun- fledged revolution. Pitstop on the highway terparts.

Page 24 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 Report Being The One

Being a TV star is not all n mid-August I was taking part in psychic without success for many it’s cracked up to be Ithe Mystery Investigators show at years. Nevertheless, the show the Australian Museum, to an needed contestants or there would audience of primary school students be no show. who came to see our presentation of So there it was. A chance for a mysteries, magic and science. As Skeptic to be a judge on a prime- they found their seats I chatted with time TV show and hopefully be given some of the young girls in the front a chance to put our case to a wide row. “Did you see that psychic show audience. on TV?” I asked. “Oh yes!” They I’m sure that many readers are seemed excited to talk about it. just waiting for me to expose the “What did you think of that Skeptic show and give away all the back- man on the show?” I should have stage secrets — and on that I’m expected the answer. “He was afraid I will disappoint. Apart from horrible! What a meanie!” I spent anything else, The One was a TV the rest of the show trying to show show produced for the purposes of them that I was in fact a nice guy entertainment and I was and still after all. am a cast member. I went in with Being part of a television show is the understanding that the show not exactly a new experience for me. and my comments would be edited. I have been on the box many times As it turned out, everyone who in my role as a spokesman for the appeared on the show was heavily Australian Skeptics and also as a edited for many reasons including background extra on such shows as stuff-ups, camera changes, micro- All Saints and Home & Away. This phone adjustments and other time, however, things were very normal studio goings on. different. This time I was a cast The studio ‘readings’ (contestants member on a show dealing with giving ‘psychic’ readings to members claims of the paranormal. of the studio audience) were also all The One screened on the 7 Net- edited and what was left out was work in July and August 2008. The entirely up to the producers. You premise of the show was that some- gain a better understanding of my how the producers had found seven part in the show and the process of of Australia’s best psychics and production by downloading an those psychics would be ‘put to the interview I did with Ghost Radio. test’ to eventually find the best of tinyurl.com/5dptjr the best. Needless to say I found this I did learn much from being part Richard Saunders is a Vice President of the NSW a strange idea when first ap- of the show. Never before have I Skeptics and founder of the Mystery proached to take part, as after all, been put in the position of having to Investigators and the Tank vodcast. science has been searching for a real give on the spot analyses of live

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 25 Being the One demonstrations of cold reading. ments in. Again, it is up to you the It was clear that the TV network Those of you who saw the show (and viewer to decide. I take heart from intended to go ahead with what they if you missed it I have been told that the comments of Joe Nickell from perceived as a ratings winner, all five episodes are now on the Skeptical Inquirer who thinks whether or not Skeptics were in- www.youtube.com) would have seen that we skeptics should take every volved. By participating, Richard me, and my co-judge Stacey chance to put our case, even on such had the chance to suggest some Demarco, with pen in hand writing shows that promote the paranormal protocols that would ensure that the as fast as we could. It is not at all as being real. Hear Joe’s comments more blatant tricks used by psychics easy to note down everything being at tinyurl.com/5s7akg would not go unnoticed, and the said over a 5 or 10 or even 15 minute final result showed that at least period. However it is vital to do so as Memory and a lesson some of his suggested protocols had one cannot rely on memory, a lesson Now to my memory and an impor- been introduced. Had he not done so, I was to learn on the last episode — tant lesson learnt. During one of the the psychics would have looked a lot but more of that later. last audience readings being con- more proficient than they appeared ducted by Charmaine Wilson, I in the final package. Tests and results thought I heard her say to one But, of course, the test were Our contestants were put to a series woman, “Your name is Sandra, nowhere nearly rigorously controlled of outdoor ‘tests’ over the series. right?” to which the woman replied enough to ensure that the contest- These were: yes. I was surprised at such a good ants’ claims were thoroughly tested. Find a missing boy lost in the bush. (7 con- hit. In fact for weeks after the event That was a fight Richard had no testants, 2 succeeded). I was still surprised, mentioning it chance of winning. Commercial Find a target object hidden in 1 of 72 ship- to people and even having a friendly television is not in the business of ping containers. (7 contestants, 0 suc- argument with Simon Turnbull conducting scientific experiments; ceeded). (President of the Australian Psychics its motivation is ‘eyes on screens’ not ‘finding the truth’ — entertainment, Find the bones of Ned Kelly. (5 contest- Association) about it. Then, at a not education. They had five one- ants, 0 succeeded). party for the final of the series I had the chance to watch that part of the hour slots to fill and had they put in Match an item of luggage to its owner. (4 reading again. To my amazement, place all the necessary protocols, contestants, 0 succeeded). the video showed that Charmaine they would have still had more than Find the body of missing British tourist actually said, “Would there be a four hours to fill and nothing to fill Peter Falconio (3 contestants, 0 succeeded). Sandra?” So, despite being there, them with. Viewers of the show could see for despite writing things down, I still What we saw was carefully edited themselves the results. However, got it wrong and my memory was footage showing the very best pieces, even this 92% failure rate did not for false. I credited Charmaine with a lasting less than a minute each, out one moment sway our contestants hit she never really had. And that is of each contestant’s 15 minutes of from their convictions in their own one of the lessons we teach school attempting to demonstrate their magical powers. kids during the Mystery Investiga- ‘skills’ in only the five tests that Other ‘tests’ conducted in the tors show…. Don’t trust your were even slightly objective. studio met, in my judgment, with a memory, it can deceive you. Frankly, if these contestants were similar failure rate, however I will “the best out of hundreds who leave that for the viewer to decide. Editor’s Comment applied”, then the psychic industry The last show did indeed crown When Richard first received the is in very bad shape indeed. one of the contestants, Charmaine offer to appear on The One, he was But if they hear of this critique, Wilson, as “The One”. This was after concerned that by accepting, he and would care to demonstrate their a phone poll by the Australian might somehow compromise his ‘real’ skills under properly controlled public. That was always going to be position as a prominent and active conditions, any one of the finalists the case as I knew full well going Skeptic. He took his concerns to the would be more than welcome to try into the show. Skeptics committee, where he the Skeptics $100,000 Challenge. I Reactions to me being part of such received their unanimous endorse- will risk my arm here, by predicting a show have for the most part been ment to go ahead, a position with that not one of them will apply. very positive. Some Skeptics and which I totally concur. As for Richard Saunders, he did a others have been less than thrilled It wasn’t an easy decision for fine job, raised awareness of Austral- that such a show was made at all, Richard to take and some Skeptics ian Skeptics among those who are let alone a Skeptic taking part. I have contacted us to express their not necessarily our target audience, think that on balance my participa- concerns that we should have been and comported himself with dignity tion was a positive thing, as it did involved at all. I’m afraid I disagree and charm. He has the right to be promote Australian Skeptics and I with this position for a number of proud of himself; I know I am proud did manage to get some nice com- reasons. of him.

Page 26 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 Review

of the non-psychics find the boy almost immediately? Would another A viewer’s comments find the boy after searching almost everywhere for fifteen minutes? he following comments were aware of the location of the boy all Would some of the others get close — Tsent to us, unsolicited, by a along. If this were the case, the test perhaps reading the actions and viewer of the programme. would not be double-blind as the reactions of the camera crew? Robert Matic is an amateur camera crew could unwittingly have In the end, the one impressive astronomer from Melbourne, provided subtle clues to the psychics result was the psychic who found the who had not hitherto been a by the style of filming or reactions to boy in three minutes. Having de- subscriber to the Skeptic (a the psychics’ movements. scribed her actions afterwards as situation we have now rectified). For example, it seemed that when being immediately drawn to the boy the psychics were way off the mark through a “psychic string” attached to On Tuesday, July 8, 2008, the search the camera would circle them fre- her chest, it would be interesting to for Australia’s most gifted psychic, quently, often filming them from the repeat the experiment with the boy The One, premiered in prime-time front almost blocking their path, or in a different location and see if she on the 7 Network. film them from a distance rather could repeat it. I doubt it. We were promised from the than following them. However, when outset, by host Andrew Daddo, that they came close to the location of the The Shipping Containers we would receive a balanced pro- boy, the camera would be focused on One of seventy shipping containers gram, with one of the two judges the psychic with the area of the boy held a cargo of barrels. Psychics had being a believer (Stacey Demarco — in shot — almost pointing the way. fifteen minutes to find the container. Witch) and the other a skeptic We were frequently shown a map This test was considerably more (Richard Saunders — Australian with a red spot at the location of the difficult than the previous week’s. Skeptics). Although the judges were boy and an arrow showing the Even if the camera crew had un- given equal time to comment on the location of the psychic and the knowingly given clues to the general results of the tests — approximately direction he or she was headed. direction of the bounty, the shipping ten seconds each per test! — the Unfortunately, the map did not containers were stacked in such a editing of the show heavily and include a line showing the places the way as to make filming of correct and predictably leaned towards the psychic had been before approaching incorrect choices difficult to differen- believer’s point of view. In fact, the boy. If that line had been super- tiate — there are only so many ways biased editing was to become a imposed onto the map, it would, no to film a psychic touching the door of hallmark of the series. doubt, be evident that the psychics a shipping container. Not strictly merely looked everywhere and one of The “controlled” tests double-blind, but better. the psychics (excluding the three- The result: all misses. The psy- The Lost Boy minute wonder) happened to come chics were shown questioning them- Andrew Daddo introduced the first of across the boy’s location. selves near the container with the a series of “controlled” tests: a search The psychics were able to com- bounty in shot. It was a little surpris- for a boy lost in the woods. Each ment on their thought processes after ing that none of the psychics chose psychic was given fifteen minutes to their results were revealed, which correctly based on this footage, but find the boy in an area that took was then edited together with the perhaps there was just as much (or approximately six or seven minutes footage of them searching for the boy. more) footage of the psychics ques- to traverse on foot. Of the seven The psychics who went the wrong tioning themselves in front of other psychics, two found the boy: one of way for a good seven or eight minutes containers. After all we were shown them requiring almost the full fifteen before coming back towards the boy barely a minute of fifteen minute minutes, the other in an impressive talked of “psychic flashes” and searches. Richard Saunders high- three minutes. Three of the other “knowing they were close” or “know- lighted that the psychics performed psychics came quite close to the boy, ing they had to turn around.” One no better than chance. Stacey before running out of time and the psychic came out with a win-win Demarco emphasised the perform- other two were way off. excuse: “My head said the left path ance of one of the psychics who Unfortunately, the controls for the and my heart said the right path, I almost chose the correct container, test were not revealed to the viewer, should have listened to my heart but said that he didn’t trust his making it very difficult to identify instead of my head.” feelings. any possible loopholes in the protocol, It would have been interesting to or whether Richard Saunders was have had a control group involved in Ned Kelly’s remains limited in the controls he could the test— seven non-psychics who The possible remains of famous impose. However, it seemed that the could also be given the test so the bushranger Ned Kelly were recently camera crew filming the psychics was results could be compared. Would one unearthed at a former prison, having

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 27 Reviewing the One been moved in the 1920s from their A group of approximately twenty made a breakthrough in the case, but original resting place. The excavation people disembarked an aircraft. The failed to explain what the break- site where the remains were found remaining psychics were to match through was. When probed by host was approximately 4,500 square each of four pieces of luggage with a Daddo, Richard Saunders said he metres according to Stacey Demarco, passenger. All four psychics failed would not send the police based on and the exact location of the find is this test miserably! Although the what a psychic felt, and there was no not widely known. The psychics were result was four misses, it’s impor- reason for the police to search the taken to the Old Melbourne Gaol tant to note that this test was still area again. Nevertheless, the “find- where Kelly was executed for his fundamentally flawed, in that it ings” of the psychics were passed on crimes, to make a “spiritual connec- wasn’t double-blind; the twenty to the Northern Territory police. tion” before travelling to the exca- passengers were aware of the piece Oddly, four weeks after the finale was vated site to attempt to locate the of luggage being “read” by the filmed, the police have not revealed remains. The “readings” made by the psychic. In fact, it was surprising any new leads in the Falconio case to psychics at the OMG were ridiculous. not to have had at least one hit after the media. I wonder why. Ned Kelly — rightly or wrongly — each psychic began pacing back and None of the tests on The One were has become an icon of Australian forth, looking each passenger in the truly double-blind — and the psy- history. All specific information face — waiting for a subtle clue. chics still failed! provided by the psychics during this One of the psychics said that she segment was widely known and had become overly confident, and The Cold Readings useless in gauging psychic abilities. her failure was merely her spirit The One included at least one cold The excavation site, where the guides humbling her — even spirit reading segment each week, leaving remains were found, hugged the guides don’t like a big shot. Stacey the vast majority of misses on the walls of a section of the former prison Demarco defended the psychics’ poor cutting room floor. Thanks to the giving the appearance of a backward performances, telling us that psychic trusty stopwatch of a fellow reviewer L-shape with a small section coming powers work, but “we don’t under- at thinkingisreal.blogspot.com/ it off the end. Of the five remaining stand them, yet — like acupunc- can be revealed that an average of psychics, three came to the general ture.” Stacey suitably compared 72% of the cold reading segment area of the correct location, but were psychic powers with acupuncture — from the fourth episode and almost still considerably distant from the since neither of them work! 90% from the fifth episode was cut exact spot. Surprisingly, host Andrew Daddo from the final edit — all misses, no Although Richard Saunders said went in to bat for the skeptics, doubt! the choices made by the psychics challenging Stacey to come up with During a medical diagnosis test, seemed like pure guesswork and a way to measure psychic abilities if each of the four psychics was to read raised the likelihood of a group of these sorts of tests are unsuitable. each of the five audience members non-psychics achieving similar Stacey’s reply was a classic non — that should be a total of twenty results, Stacey Demarco predictably sequitur: “Can you measure love?” In readings, right? Wrong. Seven counted this as three amazing hits, other words, you can’t measure readings were completely cut from triumphantly declaring, “Three psychic abilities — they just exist. the show! With all the hits shown people got to within twenty metres of We can now add Judge Stacey during the segment and only a the location on a 4,500 square metre Demarco to the long list of failures handful of misses, Richard Saun- site!” Let’s have a closer look at what on The One. ders’ comment that “with lots of this means. If we were to draw a guesses, you’re bound to get some of circle around the guessing psychic Search for the body them right” looked very odd indeed, with a radius of twenty metres, the The search for the body of murdered but, tellingly, it received a favour- area of the circle would be 1,257 backpacker, Peter Falconio, was a able reaction from some audience square metres or a whopping 28 per pathetic, tasteless and pointless members. cent of the excavation site, giving the segment, full of “feelings” and The segments were — from start psychic between a one-in-three and a “vibes” that only revealed how to finish — pure cold reading, one-in-four chance of being within useless psychic detectives really are. littered with Barnum statements, twenty metres of the correct location! In case you hadn’t guessed — generalisations and lots of Also — as discussed on the blog at because, you’re not psychic, you see shotgunning: “I feel trouble around thinkingisreal.blogspot.com/ — the — Falconio’s body was not found. the chest area,” “You get headaches,” general location of the grave had We saw a good half-hour of the “I’m getting the number two”, been revealed on multiple news psychics wandering around the someone was “run down and ex- websites in March 2008 as “near the outback touching the ground and hausted,” had “pain in the back or eastern end of the old F Division.” So exclaiming they had made contact neck,” there was “something about a much for not being widely known! with Falconio’s spirit. All three of the picture,” someone “owns or owned a Matching luggage with a passenger remaining psychics thought they had dog,” had “relationship problems,”

Page 28 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 there was “something about ice- Red sports car — miss. Something with trying, but no light, no siren). You have cream,” someone was “creative,” had trains or tunnels — hit. (owner worked a daughter (Going back to develop the “stillness inside, but was living a with trains — I assume anyone who previous hit on “kids.” Light, Siren) hectic lifestyle” “would like to travels by train or lives near a train .She likes dancing (Developing hit on develop more” “is reading more” and line would award a hit here.) Mary — “daughter”, big green light, loud siren). someone was told “it is your time hit. (Mother’s name — a common (Editors note: My favourite exam- now” — whatever that means. In name.) or Catherine — miss. Pain in ple came when the psychics w ere addition to the Barnum statements hands — hit. (Drummer sometimes reading former Olympians. One was and generalisations, the psychics gets sore wrists — although, I assume told, and he confirmed, that he was made some guesses relating to dead the psychic specifically meant hands, ‘competitive’. Well, who’d have relatives, marital status, number of based on her next prediction.) Arthri- thought it?) children and names and letters — tis — miss. Some link to Malta — Replace “Big green light, loud Terry, Tony, Troy — all techniques hit.(children are half-Maltese). Some- siren” with “subtle visual or audible familiar to the skeptic. thing about takeaway food — hit (Chil- clue” and you have psychic readings The psychics often moved the dren eat take-away food — are there worked out! Use it wisely, folks. target of their readings — getting a any who don’t?) Has trouble with com- string of misses and transferring all munication — unknown. Gets sore The Final Three predictions guesses to another member of the throats — unknown. The remaining psychics revealed studio audience who may have been The home viewer did not get a their predictions — made at the nodding or smiling or whispering to a close look at the item of jewellery start of the series — of who the final friend. being read here. Could it have been a three contestants would be. Amanda We saw audience members Maltese cross? We may never know. Roussety got one hit — herself. Ezio squeezing guesses into their lives In an attempt to give the psychics De Angelis got two hits — himself any which way. An “E L name” was a a helping hand during a celebrity and Charmaine. Charmaine Wilson hit with a grandmother named cold reading, the producers unwit- got three hits. Host Daddo asked “Dell” — the audience member later tingly provided a glaring example of Richard Saunders what he thought recalled the psychic specifically how cold readings actually work. The of the predictions. Richard likened getting the name “Dell.” An “A psychics were to give a reading to a the predictions to betting on a horse name” who is a “worry-wart” was a secret celebrity, hidden behind a race and getting a “box trifecta” — hit with an older brother named screen. To signal the hits, the celebri- where order is unimportant — with “Anthony” who had problems with ties were to push a button which seven horses in the race, which gives his new-born child — the audience would light a giant screen behind the a 1 in 35 chance of winning. But we psychic and set off a loud victory member later recalled that the can do better than that! The final siren. No longer would the psychic psychic knew about the ill child, three psychics were guaranteed to need to watch for those subtle clues which the psychic never mentioned. have at least one hit by choosing that give direction to a reading, but One audience member went back themselves, which leaves two would react to something the whole three generations to link a name guesses out of the remaining six audience could see. with a great-grandparent! A “hit” psychics, giving a 1 in 15 chance of The test was a double-edged sword was awarded when one of the guessing correctly. And with three — the feedback was stopping the predictions being made, there is a 1 psychics — after getting several hits psychics from going off on tangents, with an audience member — said, in 5 chance that at least one of the but the subtle clues that are usually predictions would have been correct! “You’re on fire!” That audience noticed by the cold reader and missed member later recalled, “He knew by most viewers were suddenly Conclusion there was a fire in our house!” replaced by a giant green light and And the winner is… Charmaine What? siren. When the screen was white, Wilson, now “Australia’s most gifted It seems the host, editors and the psychics backtracked and psychic”, who couldn’t find a boy lost viewing audience were as adept at changed course and when the screen in the woods in episode one, couldn’t remembering the hits and forgetting turned green the psychics developed find a cargo of barrels in a shipping the misses as any true believer. their guesses. Cold reading at its container in episode two, failed to Even the judges forgot misses. rudimentary level! A paraphrased identify the location of Ned Kelly’s Richard Saunders acknowledged example from the show: Stacey Demarco’s comment that one remains in episode three, couldn’t You have two kids (Big green light, loud match a piece of luggage with a of the psychics made no misses siren). You’re on TV. (No light, no si- during a reading. Here is the passenger in episode four and shed ren). No, hang on, I’m wrong. You’re a no light on the location of the body of reading with “no misses” — accord- sportshero (Light, siren). You play ing to the judges: Peter Falconio in episode five. How cricket (Trying to develop previous hit, can we doubt these results? but no light, no siren). Or tennis (Still

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 29 Investigation Jonathan Sarfati: Scientist?

Promoting naive religion by Dear Jonathan, …Why are you so (CW comment, 10/7/07) misrepresenting science rude and aggressive? — David Palmer, conservative Presby- Maybe KRudd [sic] hopes to become as terian (CultureWatch site, ‘Nothing filthy rich as [Al Gore], the leading to Fear from the New Atheist globull [sic] warm-mongering pimp, liv- Crusaders’, [4/3/08], comment dated ing off his prostitution of climate science. 8/3/08) (CW comment, 11/12/07)

r Jonathan Sarfati is a leading The most disturbing thing about the Dwriter and speaker for the [2007 federal election] was the revela- Queensland-based Creation Minis- tion of the leftward shift of once-evan- tries International (CMI) and helps gelical organisations into evanjellyfish. edit two of its journals. CMI has (CW comment, 4/12/07) gone by several different titles eg, But don’t let this bother you too Creation Science Foundation and much. According to Sarfati, Jesus Answers in Genesis, but for simplici- would have done just the same ty’s sake I’ll refer to it as ‘CMI’ thing: throughout this article. Jesus was certainly no wimp, but fre- If you disagree with Sarfati about quently resorted to challenge-riposte something he has written, or even if including strong insults. When believ- you express an opinion that differs ers are commanded to imitate Christ, from his own, he is quite likely to nothing was said about only imitating insult you. Him when He was gentle. [Melbourne Age columnist Catherine] (CW comment, 19/4/07) Deveny is yet another silly bint hired Perhaps Sarfati’s right. Jesus by a leftist rag for no other reason than apparently called the Pharisees she is an embittered apostate (being an ‘blind fools’ (Matt. 23:17) and ‘hypo- unmarried mother undoubtedly helps crites’ (Matt. 23:27) and told the too). Never mind that she has learned unbelieving Jews, ‘You are of your her history and theology from a Weetbix father the devil’ (John 8:44). So pack. much for ‘gentle Jesus, meek and (CultureWatch site, ‘Disembowelling the mild’. Incidentally, toilet humour is Christian faith’ [28/2/07], comment evidently quite acceptable when dated 1/3/07 — hereafter I’ll abbreviate insulting others as Elijah used it this notation to ‘CW comment, date’) when mocking the prophets of Baal Brian Baxter is a Melbourne-based writer and [Former US Vice-president Al Gore is] (1 Kings 18:27). educator, whose studies of pathological religious a moron, claiming that global warm- Another reason you shouldn’t feel movements appear regularly in the Skeptic. ing is a greater threat than terrorism. too upset if Sarfati insults you is

Page 30 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 that he’s quite indiscriminate about gist’ with ‘one of the strongest turn regard them as contemptuously as it, excoriating fellow Christians as creationist minds in the world’ Lenin regarded his ‘useful idiot’ allies well as ‘gutter atheists’ (a favourite (Answers in Genesis 2001 Summer in the West. term of his). Thus, the ‘evangellyfish Holiday Super-Camp brochure, distr. (Jonathan Sarfati with Mike Matthews left, like the self-appointed Evangeli- Feb. 2000, p.3) An apologist is a [2002] Refuting Evolution 2 [Answers in cal Alliance’, the Australian Chris- person who defends a position — in Genesis], 162) tian Lobby, Fred Nile and Gordon this case, the alleged truth of evan- Moyes of the Christian Democratic gelical Protestant Christianity — The Bible teaches that the first man, Party, overseas Christians like through reasoned argument. CMI Adam, was made from dust and the James Dobson of Focus on the Head of Ministry Development Gary first woman was made from his rib. Family, and even former Prime Bates really went to town in a 2004 Also, Genesis 1 teaches that living crea- Minister John Howard all get either Creation magazine interview with tures reproduce ‘after their kind ‘ … trenchant criticism or a good old Sarfati (the article bears the title Therefore, we would expect no continu- spray when they need it. ‘An awesome mind’): ity between man and the animals. You’ll have noticed that Sarfati One of the reasons [Sarfati’s writings] (ibid, 191) likes to invent new terms to describe have become such a powerful tool for the objects of his wrath, … [CMI] believes that evolution is anti- Christianity is the amazing flow of his ‘evanjellyfish’ being one of these. Of knowledge because it clouds the minds clear, crisp trademark logic which has course, evanjellyfish are Christians of many to the abundant evidence of ‘skewered’ and silenced many an evo- who dare to call themselves God’s action in creation and the true lutionary detractor … [He is] one of the ‘evangelicals’ while failing to adhere knowledge available in His Word, the world’s most powerful defenders of the to Young Earth Creationist ideology. Bible. authority of the Bible … Some of them even vote Labor! Such (ibid, 218) people aren’t ‘proper’ Christians at Jonathan definitely fits the description On women’s rights: all, but mere ‘churchians’, of a real scientist and a brilliant one at ‘Chamberlainite churchians’ or that …[Regarding Sarfati’s skill at the … [H]istorically, evolutionists have ‘CINOs’ (‘Christians in Name Only’), game of chess], [f]or most mere mortals seen females as the inferior sex. or possibly their close relatives, the like me, this kind of brain power is an (CW comment, 1/3/07) WFJs (‘Wimps for Jesus’). almost unimaginable gift … Personally, And that isn’t the half of it. I’m in awe of Jonathan’s abilities … Jim Reiher is a candidate for the Green Australia is crawling with Party, which has as its official platform In the same article CMI boss Carl ‘Christophobes’, ‘misotheists’ and hunting down and killing ‘unwanted’ Wieland expresses similar opinions ‘neo-misotheists’, ‘fundyatheists’ (ie, unborn babies. about Sarfati’s talents: ‘fundamentalist atheists’ like certain (CW comment, 22/2/07) readers of this esteemed publica- Here [is] someone the Lord [has] blessed tion), ‘atheopaths’ (presumably with a brilliant mind like a steel trap … [T]he feminists who love prenatal people suffering from the disease of … baby butchery have not liberated atheism), inhabitants of (Gary Bates ‘An awesome mind’, Crea- women nearly as much as they have lib- ‘Leftacademia’, ‘greenienazis’, tion magazine, June-Aug. 2004, 36-41) erated men who want selfish sex with- out physical consequences. No wonder ‘religious tolerance bozos’, ‘victicrats’ We can assume that Sarfati (human rights officials) and Bill Clinton was such a huge abortion approved all these comments about supporter. Even worse, feminists gave ‘homonazis’ or ‘sodomofascists’ (gay himself as he co-edits Creation rights advocates). And ‘ABC’ doesn’t him a free pass for his exploitative phi- magazine. So what sort of argu- landering just because he kept abortion stand for ‘Australian Broadcasting ments does ‘a brilliant mind like a Corporation’ but for ‘Antitheists’ legal. This shows that feminists care steel trap’ come up with? little about most women. Bolshevik Collective’, while ‘MMM’ On science and evolution: evidently stands for ‘Mendacious (CW comment, 3/4/07) Mainstream Media’. Kevin Rudd is … [S]cience is inductive. This means On killing people: ‘Chairman KRudd’, Julia Gillard is that it is logically fallacious, and thus ‘Comrade Gillardova’ and Hillary folly to subjugate Scripture to science. [The apostle] Paul affirmed that the Clinton becomes ‘Heilary Klinton’. (CW comment, 3/4/07) government does not bear the sword in It all seems rather sad. vain (Romans 13). This is a clear meta- [Charles Darwin] had an anti-theistic phor for the right of the government to The steel trap agenda … This doesn’t stop many kill wrongdoers. churchian [ie, non-fundamentalist (CW comment, 23/3/07) But other CMI leaders don’t see it Christian] academics kowtowing to that way. As far as they’re con- every pronouncement made by Darwin (Regarding the divinely-approved mas- cerned, Sarfati is a ‘brilliant apolo- and his God-hating successors, who in sacre of the Canaanites by the ancient

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 31 Sarfati: Scientist?

Israelites) As for the Canaanites, not later studied science at Victoria chemistry for a thesis entitled A only were they given centuries of fair University in Wellington. He ob- Spectroscopic Study of some warning, they practised child sacrifice tained a BSc (Hons.) in Chemistry Chalcogenide Ring and Cage Mol- …, incest, bestiality, homo-sex [and] with two physics papers substituted ecules. He describes the subject cultic prostitution — both male and fe- (nuclear and condensed matter matter of his doctoral work as male … God ordered a particular de- physics). Sarfati, whose family were follows: non-practising Jews, became a praved people to be exterminated for My PhD thesis and published papers Christian in 1984. gross depravity and the danger of pol- in secular journals [Sarfati’s official He seems to have spent the later luting the people through whom the resume lists a grand total of six such Messiah would come. 1980s and early 1990s in a variety of papers, all co-authored and none dat- pursuits. He worked at the univer- (CW comments, 30 and 31/3/07) ing after 1995] largely involve a tech- sity for some time after receiving his On sex and marriage: nique called Raman spectroscopy, bachelor’s degree: which analyses extremely weak scatter- (Regarding sexual relationships) Those … [I]n my days as a university teach- ing at a slightly different frequency who advocate ‘try before you buy’ should ing assistant, before joining [CMI], I from that of the incident laser radia- try that at a cafeteria and see how they marked an examination answer wrong tion. get on. Of course, the manager would because it said ‘God made it so’ for a insist that they bought what they tried, (Refuting Evolution 2, op cit, 118) question about the frequency of infra- because trying it spoils it for someone On this narrow basis, Sarfati red spectral lines, instead of discuss- else. claims to be a reliable expert in the ing atomic masses and force constants. (CW comment, 29/1/07) following scientific fields: astronomy; (Refuting Evolution 2, op cit, 25) biological change, mutation and (Note: this used to be known as (Isn’t it interesting that he feels natural selection; human origins; the ‘damaged goods’ theory.) the need to tell this story — as if the origin of life; and dating tech- How can we expect people to honour there was an option?) niques. He makes similar claims in business contracts when thanks to the During this period he also played fields such as philosophy, ethics, corrupt anti-Christian Lionel Murphy, a lot of chess, becoming New Zea- linguistics, economics and theology there needs to be no attempt to honour land chess champion in 1987-8 (to the extent that theology can be the marriage contract? (www.christianlogic.com/articles/ regarded as a field of knowledge). (CW comment, 21/4/07) read/interview-with-dr-jonathan- When challenged on these claims, he sarfati/, 1), the same year in which On other religions: often simply uses his PhD as a the International Chess Federation magic wand, much as a … [I]f the universe were one big (FIDE) awarded him the title of Transylvanian peasant might use Thought, as Eastern religions teach, FIDE Master (FM). According to an crossed sticks to ward off a vampire: then it could change its mind at any online chess database covering many … I have an earned doctorate in sci- moment. matches Sarfati played between ence. There is nothing in real opera- (Creation magazine, Sept.-Nov. 2007, 6) 1980 and 2006, he won 69 games, tional science to point to [an age for the On lying: lost 50 and drew 93 for an overall earth of] billions of years … winning percentage of 54.5% ([wins Under an atheistic world view, where + draws/2] /total games), giving him (CW comment, 21/9/07) we are just rearranged pond scum, a FIDE rating of 2278 in the world Sometimes Sarfati affects a there is nothing wrong with deception. (www.chessgames.com/perl/ patrician air: (CW comment, 6/1/07) chessplayer?pid=39623). My chess- It’s amusing to see [another contribu- playing friends tell me that Sarfati On miracles: tor] lecture me on quantum mechanics, is a very good player, though not a [Contributor] Alan Simpson is wrong which was an important part of my great one. The reason I draw atten- about miracles. They are better de- doctoral thesis in spectroscopy. tion to this is that CMI constantly scribed as additions to the laws of phys- implies that Sarfati is one of the (CW comment, 9/1/07) ics. most accomplished chess-players on At other times he becomes down- (CW comment, 1/5/07) the planet and that this suggests a right huffy: high intelligence which somehow My PhD heavily involved infrared Background and qualifications carries over into his support for spectroscopy, so I can’t be bluffed. Nor creationism. Not only is this quite According to his official CMI will I take kindly to any school student, illogical: it cannot even be supported resume, Dr Jonathan D. Sarfati BSc or politicians without science qualifi- on the basis of Sarfati’s actual status (Hons.), PhD, FM was born in the cations, talking down to me especially in the chess world. country town of Ararat in Victoria in in one of my areas of proven expertise. 1964. His family moved to New In 1995, Victoria University (CW comment, 7/8/08) Zealand when he was a child and he awarded Sarfati a PhD in physical

Page 32 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 ‘Areas of proven expertise’ can Sarfati properly be called a edge about God from His general rev- ‘scientist’ at all? elation [ie, nature] only if we study it Sarfati’s problem here is that he in the light of Scripture … Let us be simply doesn’t have many ‘areas of Is Sarfati a scientist? clear: if the Bible is the Word of God, it proven expertise’. If he really thinks can have no error in the original auto- that writing a PhD turns you into an On the plus side, Sarfati holds a PhD graphs in any area on which it touches, expert on anything you feel like in physical chemistry from a recog- whether theological, historical or sci- talking about, then he’s sadly nised university and has published entific. mistaken. Whether your doctorate is half a dozen papers in peer-reviewed in a science or in one of the humani- science journals. He, of course, claims (Letter in New Life, 18 Nov. 1999) that CMI’s Journal of Creation is a ties, the most you can claim is that Our starting point: The authority of the peer-reviewed scientific journal, but you have become an expert in a Bible is the main emphasis of [CMI]. as the ‘peers’ are all Young Earth small part of that field, and quite We don’t try to ‘prove’ the Bible with Creationists we’ll ignore these possibly for a limited period of time. science; rather, we accept the Bible’s contributions for now. Along with thousands of other propositions as true without proof; ie, Against this, he doesn’t seem to Australians I have a PhD from a as ‘axioms’ or ‘presuppositions’. recognised university, but it has have undertaken any serious scien- (Refuting Evolution 2, op cit, 211) never occurred to me to make the tific work since 1996 when he joined wide-ranging assertions of expertise CMI in Brisbane. During the last 12 … [T]he Bible is the Eyewitness account and authority in which Sarfati years, therefore, he has been fully of the Maker who was there [at the crea- indulges. Young Earth Creationists occupied in promoting the YEC tion], knows everything and never errs (YECs) habitually distract their religious position on a variety of … But scientists weren’t there …, don’t readers and listeners from the fronts, very few of which have know everything, and make mistakes. central research questions: what is anything to do with his scientific (‘But Genesis is not a science textbook!’ the evidence for this proposition, speciality of infrared spectroscopy. (editorial), Creation magazine, Sept.- how reliable is this evidence, and Here is a basic definition of Nov. 2004, 6) where does the evidence actually ‘science’: ‘knowledge covering general lead? Using your PhD like a club or truths about the operation of general It is just not biblically possible to date battering-ram as Sarfati does is just laws, especially as obtained and [a T-rex] skeleton to millions of years a way of browbeating and tested through the scientific method before Adam sinned. and concerned with the physical railroading people. (‘“Sue”, the T. Rex’, Creation magazine, world’ (Webster). This system of So, if I want to know more about Sept.-Nov. 2000, 18) the state of infrared spectroscopy or acquiring knowledge uses observa- chalcogenide ring and cage mol- tion and experimentation to describe Evolutionists believe that the solar sys- ecules as observed in 1995, I’ll go and explain natural phenomena via tem condensed out of a cloud of gas and straight to Dr Sarfati. Same goes for the development of hypotheses, dust called a nebula, hence the nebu- a chess problem — well, unless one theories and laws. lar hypothesis. There is no way to rec- of the 2,277 people who outrank him Sarfati doesn’t do this at all! Since oncile this with the Biblically revealed is available. If I have some basic at least 1996 he has been engaged in order of events … question about chemistry I’d prob- another set of activities entirely and (‘Venus: Cauldron of Fire’, Creation ably rely on Sarfati’s answer, at least what’s more, he has been entirely magazine, June-Aug. 2001, 31) frank about this: after I’d screened it for YEC con- I find the last quote especially tamination. But as for anthropology, We [creationists] base our science on the revealing, as Sarfati concludes his astronomy, biology and all the rest of biblical framework of history … That sentence with the words, ‘and there it, he simply doesn’t have the exper- is, during creation week about 6,000 are many scientific problems with tise. He can express opinions but years ago, [God] created distinct kinds the theory as well.’ This indicates these must be judged by the same of creatures. Shortly after that, Adam not only that he rejects the nebular criteria as we judge anyone else’s sinned and brought death and muta- hypothesis primarily because of his opinions, according to how well or tions into the world. interpretation of the Bible, but also badly they fit the evidence. Yelling (Refuting Evolution 2, op cit, 21) that he acknowledges the difference ‘I’m a scientist’, or ‘I’m a PhD’ or between Bible-based and scientific [CMI] always makes it very clear that ‘Ask me anything about infrared objections. The clear implication is we start from a biblical framework … spectroscopy and you’ll see how that he is no longer a scientist, but [H]ow can a cursed creation interpreted smart I am’ just doesn’t cut it. instead someone whose overriding by a fallible methodology of sinful hu- But my biggest problem with concern is to advance the interests of mans [ie, science] determine how we Sarfati’s repeated assertions that he his religion. is a scientist has to do with the interpret the perfect, unfallen Word of nature of science itself. Specifically, God? Rather, we can gather true knowl- Continued p 37 ...

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 33 Investigation Yet More ‘Imaginography’: Gavin Menzies and Peter Trickett

An exploration of y articles in the Skeptic [19:1 Century, and that the Portuguese invented history Mand 21:4] dealt with books on copied their maps. Peter Trickett the claimed pre-Dutch ‘discovery’ of claims to show how Portuguese Australia published towards the end adventurers secretly discovered and of the last century, by Kenneth mapped Australia and New Zealand McIntyre, Roger Hervé, and Law- 250 years before Captain Cook rence FitzGerald.1 They, and George (2007).4 Both books were marketed Collingridge before them2, all be- as ‘rewriting history’. lieved that the non-existent land- Gavin Menzies’ claims have been mass usually known as Jave la taken apart in numerous reviews, Grande (Great Java) immediately books, articles, and on a multi- south of Indonesia on the mid-16th authored internet site Century Dieppe maps was a mis- www.1421exposed.com. In late July placed Portuguese map of Australia 2007, an ABC Four Corners pro- (see map). So convinced were they gramme, appropriately entitled that they tended to treat that belief Junk History, revealed both the as a reliable premise, rather than as fictitious nature of 1421, and the a hypothesis, and then sought unashamed disregard for truth evidence to prove it, and where exhibited both by Menzies and his necessary, concocted evidence to try publishers; sensational, worldwide to help them do so. They all man- press releases marketing fiction as aged to confirm to their own satis- history make money. faction that their conviction was Publicity for Menzies’ work was so right, even though they failed to successful that it even managed to reach any consensus over the reason con the Chinese President into for the alleged misplacement, or the pronouncing in the Australian supposed identification of many Parliament on 24 October 2003 that features. Recently, two further, the Chinese had discovered Aus- similar works have appeared, tralia in the 15th Century! And coming to the same conclusion, by Menzies, in an interview on the means of two further, different ABC’s Radio National, had the interpretations of the same ‘evi- effrontery to use the President’s dence’. It apparently did not occur to statement to support his, Menzies’, any of the above authors that their claim! premise might have been false. In an article originally published Gavin Menzies’ now notorious in The Globe5, and now accessible by W.A.R.(Bill) Richardson is an Associate 1421 (2002)3, contains two chapters following links on the above-men- Professor at the School of Humanities, Flinders claiming that the Chinese discovered tioned internet site, I particularly University and mapped Australia in the 15th emphasised four features of Menzies’

Page 34 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 methodology. Firstly, he restricts his Gavin Menzies is, of course, by no Moreover, the whole eastern coast- ‘proof’ to two maps in the atlas of means the only writer to ‘prove’ a line is fictitious, clearly inserted as a one cartographer only, Jean Rotz thesis by the judiciously selective pseudo-Ptolemaic feature, while the (1542), ignoring all the others, use of evidence, omitting any rel- place-names are necessarily in- despite the fact that all the Dieppe evant material which runs counter vented; a number are copied from maps’ depictions of Jave la Grande to the author’s thesis. Peter Trickett elsewhere on Ptolemaic maps; the are clearly derived from common does so too. others are so far unidentified, but source material which has not Firstly, he ignores all the represen- are probably invented. survived. tations of Jave la Grande except the The supply of extra place-names Secondly, Menzies concentrates one called Terra Jaua, appearing in is very noticeable on the Vallard primarily on Rotz’s eastern hemi- three sections (all with south at the maps, especially on those covering sphere map, on which what are top), in the work of one Dieppe Terra Jaua (Jave la Grande). A called The Londe of Jaua and Lytil cartographer, the anonymous one who comparison between the names on Jaua (together constituting Jave la produced the Vallard atlas (1547), so- the Vallard east coast map and those Grande) have not a single coastal called after its one-time owner. on the other large-scale Dieppe inscription. He is thus able to give Secondly, by so doing, he fails to maps’ east coast reveals that the free rein to his imagination, and realise the significance of the fact former contains sixty-eight inscrip- present the ‘continent’ as being that the Vallard atlas is unique tions; seven are saints’ names, which Australia, attaching Australian amongst the Dieppe maps in produc- are virtually non-existent on Portu- place-names to what are actually ing over fifty inscriptions on both guese maps of Asia; the few there unidentified features on unidentified the enigmatic north/south trending are have been shown to be corrup- coastlines. Rotz did not produce coastlines, where the other maps do tions of local place-names. Trickett larger-scale maps of the two south- not have more than about ten on appears to assume that all these ward-trending coasts, but place- each. Trickett assumes that the inscriptions are either in French or name evidence on their almost Vallard cartographer had access to Portuguese; though some are, identical representations of Jave la much more information than that whoever inserted the east coast Grande on the other Dieppe maps is available to the other Dieppe cartog- names was an appalling linguist, for readily available. Menzies ignores it. raphers. However logical such an many are in an astonishing jumble Why? Was it out of sheer ignorance, assumption may appear, any histo- of languages; on several occasions or because it invalidates his thesis? rian of cartography thoroughly adjectives do not agree with their familiar with 16th Century maps 7 One way of dealing with inconven- nouns. would know that it is a hazardous ient evidence is to keep quiet about A comparison between the two one to make. it, a very obvious ploy used by west coasts reveals that the Vallard Some cartographers who were one bears fifty-two inscriptions; it ‘imaginographers’. producing luxurious maps and also adds names to three offshore Thirdly, Menzies, having ignored atlases for wealthy patrons and islands. It omits five particularly the place-names on the other Dieppe royalty could not to resist the significant names which are on the maps, attempts to prove that Rotz’s temptation to impress them by other Dieppe maps’ west coast, baye Lytil Jaua (ie, Java) is actually adding exotic material, and/or, by bresille, Haure de Sylla, neige / Arnhem Land, by ‘translating’ adding invented place-name inscrip- noirre / negre, b. de gao, and carefully selected inscriptions on its tions where the originals they were Quabesequiesce, in various versions, north coast on a larger-scale Rotz copying from were somewhat scant- which have been shown to refer to map, of SE Asia and Indonesia. He ily provided with them. It is a basic south-western Java.8 claims that they are in ‘mediaeval principle of toponymy that as many Inserted are such obviously Portuguese’ and are references to examples as possible of any given invented names as R ameriqua, and Arnhem Land, when they are place-name should be studied and patallis, (the latter being a name manifestly Javanese place-names; compared, because of the frequency which appears in all sorts of places he even presents fin de jaua (end of of miscopying in transmission; both on 16 th Century maps), some names Java) as a misspelled reference to Menzies and Trickett ignore this. which cannot be reliably identified, the Gove Peninsula, being ignorant A typical example of the doctoring and such common names as terra of the fact that that peninsula only of place-names can be seen on two of alta (high land), terra final (last got that name in 1943! The map the maps in the so-called Miller land), cap haulte (high cape), Rio concerned is not reproduced, so atlas of c. 1519. Two maps covering grant (large river) etc, which are too readers are deprived of the chance of the ‘Pacific Ocean’ have an overlap of unspecific for identification pur- observing that Menzies ignores some 20o of latitude; on neither the poses. other easily recognisable Javanese western (Asian), nor the eastern The Vallard cartographer did not names such as siru baia (Surabaya), (‘American’) coastline do the outlines only add invented inscriptions on jepara (Japara), and tubã (Tuban). and place-names correspond.6 Terra Java; he also did so at the

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 35 Imaginography northern and southern extremities Peter Trickett (2007) promotes as hypothetical, unproven equation of of the Americas. a fact rather than as a hypothesis Sumbawa with ‘Cape York’ (the Trickett provides a series of that French cartographers incor- difference is some 6o), his ‘Wilson’s figures purporting to show the rectly joined two Portuguese maps Promontory’ would still be some 11o supposed similarities between at the northern base of the Cap de too far south! sections of Terra Jaua’s east coast fremose projection, so by rotating it Another result of Trickett’s and those of Australia’s east coast. clockwise by some 90º, he supposedly tinkering with the Cap de fremose For such a comparison to be valid turns Cap de fremose into ‘Wilson’s promontory, is that a group of one would expect scale and latitude Promontory’ and continues islands off it is also moved, and to be taken into presented as New account. However, Zealand’s North Trickett provides Island. It doesn’t no indication of look particularly either on these like it; moreover, figures, which all of the supposed necessarily ‘North Island’ invalidates the north of ‘Auckland’ imaginative place- is missing, so name identifica- Trickett again tions he makes, tampers with quite apart from evidence by adding the highly dubi- a dotted, hypo- ous nature of his thetical coastline treatment of to supply it. He inscriptions; as a does not explain prime example, how the navigator note the case of responsible missed aljofar below. the omitted part of The major ‘North Island’, nor problem faced by why, when sailing all the advocates through ‘Cook of the Portuguese Strait’ he failed to = Australia theory see and record the is the large north shore of triangular projec- The Dauphin (Harleian) map’s depiction of Jave la Grande superimposed on the modern map, ‘South Island’. tion at the south- based on the assumption that the north coasts of Java and Sumbawa on both maps should On the Vallard ern end of Jave la coincide, and that the rest of each map is on the same scale. east coast map, Grande’s east (From W.A.R.Richardson, Was Australia charted before 1606? The Jave la Grande inscriptions: by before being coast with Cap de courtesy of the National Library of Australia). ‘adjusted’ by fremose at its Trickett, there head, for which there is no equiva- ‘Australia’’s south coast as far as appears an island, Il[h]a do aljofar, lent on Australia’s east coast. Imagi- ‘Kangaroo Island’. Superficially, the north of the problematic Cap de native solutions suggested before result appears convincing, but such fremose triangle. On 16th Century 2000 included that the headland was unsubstantiated tampering with Portuguese maps covering Asia, the the southern tip of Tasmania (Roger primary evidence is unacceptable. As word aljofar (pearl) appears in only Hervé: 1955)9, Cape Howe (Kenneth a result of his disregard of latitude one place, identifying Hainan Island, McIntyre, and Ian McKiggan: differences between Vallard’s east off the south coast of China. Be- 1977)10, the East Cape of New coast and Australia’s, Trickett cause of the fame of the pearl Zealand’s North Island (Roger doesn’t realise that the point from fisheries there, aljofar was often Hervé: 1982/83), and the northeast which he rotates the peninsula is used to identify the island rather tip of Tasmania (Lawrence Fitz almost exactly in the latitude of the than such Portuguese versions of the Gerald: 1984). real Wilson’s promontory, so his Chinese name as ainão and ainam. Gavin Menzies (2002) proposed ‘Wilson’s Promontory’ is actually As a result of Trickett’s 90o that the triangular projection was some 17 degrees, or nearly 2000 ‘adjustment’ of the east coast map, composed of part of Tasmania joined kilometres, too far south. Even if one the aljofar island’s position is also to the minute Auckland and were to accept his hypothesis that ‘adjusted’. Trickett, who performs Campbell Islands far south of New the latitudes shown are wrong and some weird, some ingenious, trans- Zealand by solid ice! should be corrected, because of the formations and ‘translations’ of

Page 36 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 coastal inscriptions, somehow fails Palmerston North: 1983); ... Sarfati from p 33 to recognise this perfectly good Lawrence FitzGerald, The Portuguese Portuguese (and Spanish) word Discovery of Australia, Hobart: 1993. If Sarfati wants to continue aljofar, and proclaims it to be a 2. George Collingridge, The Discovery referring to himself as a ‘scientist’, corruption of a Tongan word, and of Australia, Sydney: 1895. he should in all honesty add the qualifiers ‘ex-’ or ‘former’. Like other applies it to ‘Tonga’. Why? Can it be 3. Gavin Menzies, 1421. The Year religious and political enthusiasts — because the Vallard positioning of China Discovered the World, London: not all of them Christian by any aljofar in relation to Jave la 2002. Grande’s east coast does not fit his means — he tries to impose a wholly 4. Peter Trickett, Beyond Capricorn: thesis? Aljofar (Hainan) happens to stultifying straitjacket on the theory How Portuguese Adventurers Secretly be the key place-name clue to the and practice of science. The question Discovered and Mapped Australia identification of that coast as that of of whether a scientific hypothesis is and New Zealand 250 Years Before Champa (southern Vietnam) and or is not ‘biblically possible’ should Captain Cook, Adelaide: 2007. part of Cambodia, unrecognised, be a non-issue, but Sarfati accords it differently scaled, and misplaced, 5. W.A.R. Richardson, ‘Gavin Menzies’ central importance in his scheme of the Cap de fremose triangle being cartographic fiction: the case of the things. A ‘science’ which lurches the Mekong delta, and the islands Chinese discovery of Australia’, The down that path is not worthy of the off it being the Con Son Islands, not Globe (Journal of the Australian Map name. New Zealand.11 Circle), 56 (2004), 1-11. As a supplement to Trickett’s 6. Reproduced in Armando Cortesão Conclusion imaginative cartographic case he and Avelino Teixeira da Mota, Bobby Fischer, a very great chess- resurrects and reworks such scat- Portugaliae Monumenta player, died last January aged 64. tered, long-discounted, non-carto- Cartographica, Lisbon: 1960; vol. I, Here are a few lines from one of his graphic ‘evidence’ as the Bittangabee pls 20 and 21; see also W.A.R. obituaries: ‘fort’, the ‘Mahogany’ ship, the Richardson, ‘‘East and South-East By [1970], Fischer’s reputation — de- Napier Broome Bay cannon, and the Asia: Cartographers’ Attempts to manding, unpredictable and surly — Wellington harbour iron helmet; Reconcile the Maps of Ptolemy and was firmly established … [A few years none of them adds anything to the Martellus with Marco Polo’s Travels later], he had joined the Pasadena- credibility of his Vallard ‘proof’, nor and with Portuguese Charts”, Terrae based Worldwide Church of God and does a fishing-net sinker to which he Incognitae, 32 (2000), pp. 1-22, reportedly gave it $US61,000 of his imputes great significance. especially pp. 14-15. [chess championship] prize money. Dis- Both 1421 and Beyond Capricorn 7. W.A.R. Richardson, ‘Toponymy and illusioned, he left the church after Je- are very readable fiction, but one the History of Cartography’, Journal sus Christ failed to return in 1975 as hopes that neither will find its way of the Royal Australian Historical church founder Herbert Armstrong had onto school or university history Society, vol. 78, Parts 1 and 2 (June promised … Garry Kasparov, the Rus- syllabuses, except possibly as a 1992), pp. 125-129. sian grandmaster, speculated in 1990 salutary warning of how easy it is to that Fischer’s bizarre behaviour was 8. Idem, Was Australia charted before be conned by wishful-thinking the result of the American becoming ‘a 1606? The Jave la Grande inscrip- authors, and unscrupulous, sensa- prisoner of chess who got lost in its tions, Canberra: National Library of tion-purveying publishers. depths and could not find his bearings Australia, 2006; reprint 2008. in the real world outside’. References 9. Roger Hervé, ‘Australia in French (‘Eccentric genius who checkmated him- Geographical Documents of the 1. Kenneth G. McIntyre, The Secret self’, Melbourne Age, 23 Jan. 2008) Discovery of Australia: Portuguese Renaissance’, Royal Australian Let’s hope that the obituary Ventures 200 Years Before Captain Historical Society’s Journal and writers will one day be a little Cook, London: 1977; Proceedings, vol. xli (1955), pp. 23-38. kinder to former NZ chess champion Roger Hervé, Découverte fortuite de 10. Ian McKiggan, ‘The Portuguese and former scientist, Jonathan l’Australie et de la Nouvelle Zélande Expedition to Bass Strait in AD Sarfati. par des navigateurs portugais et 1522’, Journal of Australian Studies, Oh, and as for all you moronic bints, espagnols entre 1521 et 1528, Paris: vol. 1 (1977), pp. 2-32. bozos and pimps out there — just 1982; (English translation, 11. Richardson 2006, pp. 79-81. watch it!

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 37 Investigation Tracks of the Big Cat

Chasing down a persistent n January 29, 2007, the would only need to come out at night O Macarthur Chronicle published to hunt. In practice however, as (sub)urban myth a collection of local big cat sightings quiet and stealthy as they are, they going back many years1. In a recent are not invisible, nor are they case it was reported that a young obsessively shy. When resting in teenaged girl named Emilly was trees, their long drooping tails would chased by a panther while riding her tend to give them away, assuming horse at the Sugarloaf Horse Centre, the spindly eucalypt limbs don’t a place I know well. Throughout this snap under their weight. Few trees article, I will refer to “panthers” as here look strong enough to support a the original articles did, even though 60kg feline. These are not ideal it is not a correct term. conditions. The Sugarloaf Horse Centre is a Curiously, all the big cats re- 220 hectare (approximately 600 ported in the newspaper that day acre) heritage-listed property on the were described as panthers. When outer fringe of Sydney. It contains a talking about mysterious big cat fresh water canal servicing Prospect sightings, the panthers are black. A reservoir and the ambitiously named ‘black panther’ is actually a melanis- Mt Sugarloaf. The riding centre is tic leopard (or, less commonly, a one of the oldest continually operat- jaguar) whose black fur obscures its ing farms in the district, in use since spots. It is possible for a ‘black about 18352. It has been spared from panther’ to be on the loose, but the encroachment of the urban sooner or later it will die and the sprawl due to a large supply of sightings will end, unless a breeding natural gas and a rich coal seam colony can be established. The being mined via Appin. articles recounted sightings that Could a big cat live here? There span almost thirty years, but leop- would be no shortage of food or fresh ards rarely live over twenty, so it water. The land is rich with hares could not have been one anomalous and rabbits, some wallabies, almost creature. There were also cubs a hundred delicious horses, and a reported in one sighting in Appin, steady flow of tender young riders but more on that later. If all these visiting every week. With shady stories are true, there must have streams, thick scrub, and a small been more than one panther. forest of native trees, you could imagine that a panther would be Problems hard to find if it didn’t want to be Here is the first problem. The dark Phillip Peters, the immediate past Secretary found. In theory, they could hide in colour is caused by a recessive gene. of the NSW Skeptics, works as an animator. the undergrowth or up in trees and When ‘black panthers’ reproduce,

Page 38 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 most of their offspring will not look small, too large, or dressed in can do will stop them, short of a lack black, but there were no reports of clothing long out of style. A faery of imagination and a refusal to the spotted variety. A colony of disguised as an animal might also be admit they exist at all. Something panthers would also need to eat a lot flawed in scale. This could explain you can mention to your kids when of fresh meat, more than the native why big cat footage typically in- you put them to bed on a dark wildlife at Mt Sugarloaf could volves out of focus felines that move stormy night. provide and people would notice if like domestic cats, in spite of breath- The faery faith is not as popular their horses started disappearing. less commentaries that they are as it once was, but it is no less Local farmers already take matters huge! This would also explain the credible than an interventionist God into their own hands when they lack of stock losses, lack of highly who is both all-powerful and all- have stock losses, but it is nothing pungent leopard droppings, and the loving. If millions of people can compared to the losses required to lack of any skeletal leopard remains. believe that logical inconsistency, support a colony. The ‘black pan- If Campbelltown sounds familiar, why not faeries? To be fair, not all thers’ cannot be leopards as we know it should. It is internationally religions fall into this pattern of them — they must be something famous, not for the high cost of real belief. A classical pagan sees no else. estate (wrong city), or the fine single problem with gods who are indiffer- Emilly reported seeing the pan- malts (wrong country), but for the ent to the sufferings of mortals (as ther several times after her initial legend of Fisher’s Ghost. In brief, in espoused by Epicurus). It fits the fright and mentioned way things seem to that her friend Karrine work in life. saw it too. If the Likewise the creature visits often, Satanists may you would think have a point with a somebody else might deity that is not have noticed it over the obligated to act out years. I asked some of of love (see Anton the locals and nobody LaVey). Gods can admitted to seeing a have power, or panther, but they were love, but if they aware of another had both, the creature that might fit world would be a the bill. This creature very different has managed to breed place. and a small colony has Faeries make sprung up around her. A black (melanistic) leopard, AKA panther more sense, She’s a wallaby. Walla- relatively. It would bies could be confused not be contrary to with big cats in some circumstances, 1826, the ghost of Fred Fisher was their nature if they have been but if we must rule out reportedly seen pointing towards causing pranks ever since the first misidentification, then we have a where his body lay, which led to the man wondered where he lost his problem. There is only one creature conviction of his murderer. A skeptic marbles. How would we prove they that fits the description, yet leaves might say a witness wanted to draw don’t? The prankster faery-cat no trace. Based on the eyewitness the police into an investigation hypothesis is also more plausible testimony and the lack of material without implicating himself, but than a panther that eats nothing, evidence, it could only be a faery-cat. there is another possibility. leave no trace and has selective Perhaps it was the same faery invisibility. Faerie tales whom, after helping to bring a man Faeries notoriously defy classifica- to justice in the clever form of a Other explanations tion. They choose to appear in any ghost, is now bearing its claws to Could it be that Emilly’s horse was form, usually when people are tired protest the encroachment of new startled by something other than a or preconditioned, and are usually suburbs springing up all around faery-cat or a panther? There are mistaken for ghosts (which is just Campbelltown. Faeries can be only two things that startle a horse; silly — everybody knows ghosts capricious, benign, and even at things that move and things that don’t exist). While faeries may times playful, but should never be don’t. If a horse does bolt, all you can appear as anything, the glamour is underestimated. As creatures do is hold on tight with your knees only an imitation of the real thing. without material form, there can and try to rein it away from disaster. Something usually betrays their never be empirical evidence for their That invariably involves looking at true nature. A faery could appear too existence. By extension, nothing we where you want the horse to go, and

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 39 Big Cat not looking backwards! Anything which was even more dramatic than Rambo. Years of being held and could cause a horse to run for its life. Emilly’s encounter. Reportedly, back petted by adoring animal lovers has Would the staff at the riding in 1980, chickens at the Inghams driven this surly feline mad with an centre admit the existence of a chicken farm were being eaten by a insatiable hunger for native wildlife panther on their property? Perhaps “panther-like creature” with cubs. and a reckless indifference to horses. parents would stop bringing their Two of the staff caught the creature And who could blame him? It is a cat little kids out for trail rides if they and drowned it in a water drum, after all. He certainly looks like a thought they might turn up as cat burying it on the property3. Offi- miniature panther, if not for the way chow. If you look at the warning cially, Inghams declined to comment he feeds in a crouching position signs at the centre, it is obvious that on whether their staff killed a wild (rather than lying down). He also nobody is concerned about intimidat- animal 28 years ago and how long rests with his forepaws tucked ing young riders. under his body and his Three large signs tail wrapped around, warn that riding is a lest somebody care- dangerous activity and lessly step on it. The urge everybody to be big cats seem less insured — helmets are concerned, for some compulsory. All reason. members of staff carry Everybody loves a first aid kits and mystery, but when remain in radio people claim poten- contact when out and tially dangerous about. If anything, creatures are on the they would rather loose, we should try to parents were more solve the mystery one concerned for safety way or another. Ap- than try to down-play peals based on fear the risks. should be substanti- But are there really ated or they become predators in the area? Rambo, not a panther, but would like to be. idle scare mongering. If Most certainly. The an exotic big cat is difference is, other predators leave living near Campbelltown then it behind clues to their existence. To Chuck Norris and Mr T. were on the needs to be identified and removed give one example, calves and kids (of payroll. as a matter of scientific curiosity the goat variety) were being eaten Breeding and perhaps public safety. In light of on a nearby property. To a trained the balance of evidence however, I eye, it was clearly the work of dogs. It is possible for a big cat to wander will continue riding at Mt Sugarloaf They could be seen, left tracks, across the rolling hills from Appin, unarmed. It sounds like a faery tale killed to eat, and one eventually chase Emilly on her horse, then to me. came into the sights of a rifle. It is leave, but remember that she now an ex-dog. spotted it several times since. If I References We should not dismiss the notion was chased by a panther, then 1 Online article on the newspaper of a panther on the loose just be- noticed it eyeing me afterwards, I’d website. cause most people cannot see it. One be far less composed. Perhaps she www.macarthurchronicle.com.au/ of the rangers at the nearby Mt knows that it’s only sick panthers article/2007/01/29/2066_news.html that attack humans. If a leopard Annan botanical gardens told me 2 Sugarloaf Horse Centre. population has been bred by some- there were thousands of rabbits on www.freewebs.com/sugahc/index.htm the site. I’ve only seen one rabbit body for the black colouring, there is there, but unlike the panther, these a potential risk. Inbreeding for this 3 Inghams article. pests leave behind clues to their trait makes the cats susceptible to www.macarthurchronicle.com.au/ existence, with their droppings and genetic flaws and has an adverse article/2007/01/29/2065_news.html the damage caused to the environ- effect on their temperament. A 4 The Beast of Gévaudan (central ment. They are also suckers for sickly, aggressive leopard could France) killed over a hundred people traps and baits. It is a wonder no become a latter day Beast of between 1764 and 1767. At the time panther has been found dead with a Gévaudan4, but luckily for us locals, it was believed to be a wolf, but may poisoned rabbit in its belly. this beast lacks any appetite at all. have been a dog/wolf hybrid or an There was another story of a Perhaps we should consider a African striped hyena imported to panther with cubs at nearby Appin sleek black farm cat, known as terrorise the locals.

Page 40 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 Experience Kibbutz Children

History of an Accidental Social Experiment

Experiencing a social The rise of socialist Zionism By comparison, Jews in Arab countries lived in relative comfort experiment he Zionist movement emerged in and with what was considered, by Russia during the 1880s. As is T the standards of the day, very little often the case with ideas whose ‘time persecution. They were not equal to has come’ as a consequence of the the Muslim population, but they accumulated weight of historical were rarely attacked or subjected to events, it emerged in several differ- the kinds of restrictions common in ent places, and was promoted by Russia. The Jews of the Muslim various groups with little or no world were therefore, by and large, coordination. None of the new latecomers to the idea of Zionism. groups actually called themselves The generally unoppressed Jews of “Zionist” — some of them didn’t even Western Europe and America were have a name — but they all shared early adopters of the movement, one basic idea that eventually once it had started to gain momen- became the basis of Zionism as we tum. know it today: that Jews should Over the years leading up to the have a land of their own in which turn of the 20th Century, the Russian they would be a normal people, groups coalesced and became more unencumbered by the restrictions, homogeneous in their approach to a impositions and persecution of possible solution. Yet, by the time of hundreds of years of life as second the first Zionist Congress in 1896, rate citizens in foreign lands. (Many only about 15,000 Jews (by then years later, a famous poet com- known as halutzim, or pioneers) mented on the importance of having emigrated to what was to later a Jewish policeman and a Jewish become Israel; the question of prostitute, as signs of normality.) whether the solution would be found It is probably not a coincidence in that small piece of land or in that Russia was the garden bed Uganda was hotly debated. where several such groups suddenly That debate was short-lived as sprouted. It was a hostile place for increasing oppression and pogroms Jews who faced not only formal in Russia pushed growing numbers restrictions on trade and movement of Jews to Palestine. By 1910, about (as they did elsewhere too) but also 50,000 halutzim lived in Palestine, random and violent attacks that most of them in their twenties or went largely unpunished. Young thirties; secular, and eager to build Jews formed a burning desire for Eran Segev, a Vice President of the NSW the land by farming, building roads, change, and this was happening in a Skeptics, was born in Israel, spending some and leading a life free of oppression. hothouse atmosphere of socialist time in the UK, before migrating to Australia, In many cases, their Zionism was agitation and approaching revolu- where he did the sensible thing by becoming inseparable from their socialism; a cricket nut. tion.

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 41 Kibbutz Children

both were tools of revolution against joined the group. (I once asked my of how this was actually to happen oppression. Socialism appeared to grandmother, who had lived in a had been worked out, but eventually them to be a main driver of change kibbutz for 65 years: “Did you really one person was assigned to look and an important factor in getting to share everything?” Her response after the children, and the job the point where they were the first was: “Of course we did. We didn’t rotated amongst the kibbutz mem- generation in many hundreds of have anything!”) bers. years to have had control over their Whether it is true or not, legend In those days, aptitude in, or lives. It was thus held onto not just has it that the members of the inclination to caring for children was as the fashion of the day (as it most kibbutz worked in the fields during not considered when deciding who certainly was) but also as a main- the day and had ideological debates would take part in the rotation. This stay of their newly found freedom. at night. My grandmother did was to change very quickly, but not support the veracity of the legend, quite in the way an unbiased ob- The first kibbutz but I am still a little bit skeptical, as server may have expected. Another Most of the halutzim worked in the the number of people who found life development that was not envisaged towns and villages that were estab- too hard and left is significantly initially was the change from day lished by those who had arrived larger than the number of those who care to day and night care, and it is before them, but to some, town life stayed. this change that particularly af- was too similar to what they had It is unclear whether the founders fected four generations of children, experienced in the old country. The of Deganya saw themselves as including me. relationships of employees and establishing a movement, but in a employers were not to their liking; few years a number of other kibbut- Child care arrangements neither was the fact that many Jews zim (the plural of kibbutz) were The first change alluded to earlier did not engage in what they saw as established. Many were in the same was the removal of most men from an important part of the life of a region as Deganya, but several were the roster. I have been unable to find normal people — physical labour. established in other regions. It is any evidence that the irony was A small group was therefore led, also unclear whether the members of apparent to the members of the in 1910, to establish a communal Deganya saw themselves as role kibbutz, but I suspect that rather farm on the southern shores of the models to all other kibbutzim with than it being lost, they chose to lake of Galilee, not half a kilometre every little decision they made, but ignore it. It must be remembered from where, according to Christian clearly they were seen that way, as that at the time only four or six out tradition, Jesus walked on water. we shall soon see. of the twenty-something kibbutzniks They named their settlement were parents, and it is likely that “Deganya”, a derivative of the word The first kibbutz children decisions about child rearing were dagan, meaning ‘grain’, as a tribute When the first child was born in treated, in principle, as no different to the importance of farming in their Deganya, the concept of communal from decisions about buying chicken lives. living for children, which is the feed. The Hebrew word kibbutz means experiment I refer to in the title and The change to day and night care ‘gathered’; Deganya was initially which would later become a defining was the result of another set of referred to as a kvutza, meaning part in the life of children in all practical considerations. The shacks group. There were differences kibbutzim, had not yet arisen. When in which the kibbutz members lived between the ideologies of those who it had been proposed, it was an were not large enough to accommo- referred to themselves by the differ- afterthought to an economic argu- date another person, not even a ent names, but they are irrelevant to ment. small one; it was also evident that this discussion. Whatever the reason That Miriam Baratz, the mother the parents were tired and therefore for the choice of word, it was clearly of the first child, should stop work- not as productive as they should be, meant to symbolise the unity of the ing to take care of her newborn son so it was decided that having just group members. The notion behind was seen as damaging the equality one person take care of the children this new settlement was simple: full between men and women – very at night would be a good idea. Since equality to all. There were to be no much a core value in the kibbutz. one person was already awake all relationships of subordination, equal The solution was for her to take the night — the night watchman — it contribution was expected by all and baby with her to work. Since work was decided that he or she would be all were to expect the same in was at the dairy farm or the field, assigned the extra responsibility. return. This was later framed as this posed obvious difficulties, but it And so, with no real consideration of “From each according to their ability, was not until the second child was the effects on children and parents, to each according to their needs”. born that it was suggested that the the communal child-care arrange- Sharing of property was not burden of caring for the children ments of the kibbutz were born. initially an important issue, though should be shared by the community. It is important to emphasise that it became one later, once new people It took some time before the details communal living meant more than

Page 42 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 just sleeping away from home. The with a piercing ear ache. Of course, had no qualms about changing children lived together, visiting their her description is probably wrong — aspects of the system that they felt parents only for family time in the it would probably have been minutes were no longer relevant to them, and evening. It was like boarding school, before she was attended to — but one of the first radical changes that except there were no holidays; on her subjective perception as a little kibbutzim underwent, starting with the other hand, the parents were girl was of loneliness and abandon- the mid 1970s, was the move away always close by, unlike the parents ment. from communal living arrangements of boarders. It is important to note that most for children. Over the years, many changes children’s relationships with their In 1999, the last kibbutz made have taken place. As most kibbutzim parents were not necessarily very the switch, and communal living for grew and the number of children different from the relationships of kibbutz children became a thing of increased, child care personnel parents and children in other places. the past. Over 85 years, an esti- became more permanent, and A study published in the American mated 250,000 children grew up in usually more trained. And as profes- Journal of Psychiatry (Kaffman, communal living. Many have bad sionalism in all areas of kibbutz life 1961) describes the increased memories from the experience, and became accepted and members amount of time that kibbutz parents many others have good memories increasingly worked in one place for got to spend with their children, and feel that their relationships extended periods rather than follow- because evenings were, by defini- with their peers are a lot stronger ing a roster, the child care profession tion, family time. That same study because of it. became accepted as an occupation concluded that kibbutz children did A lot of research over the years like any other in the kibbutz (though not display a higher overall ten- has shown that on average, the it was still mostly the domain of dency for behavioural or emotional experience caused no significant women). problems, and that parents re- harm or benefit, yet it failed in the The night watchman remained mained the most important figures most fundamental way: the people one of the strongest memories of any in the child’s life. And living close by who had to live through it — parents child in a kibbutz for 85 years, but but not at close quarters during and children alike — rejected it; the over the years a night watchwoman adolescence certainly has the poten- kids by “escaping”, the parents by was added to the fold, so that the tial to diffuse some of the lasting changing the system. person with the gun patrolling the effects of that turbulent time on the To me, the interest in the experi- perimeter and the person feeding relationships between children and ment comes from two different the babies, changing nappies and parents, while maintaining a close perspectives. One is a personal one, comforting children out of a night- relationship. as a child who lived through it and mare were no longer one and the as a parent who wouldn’t even same. Technology also started to The end of the experiment dream of having his children live play part, as intercoms were in- In the end, the reason the accidental away from home; the other is of the stalled in the children’s rooms, experiment can be said to have observer, who has seen people which allowed the night failed has little to do with the effects embark on what turned out to be a watchwoman to hear the cries and on the emotional health of children large scale social experiment that the crying. and parents. As Israeli society lasted generations but was never developed economically through the planned or considered in any mean- The emotional side 1950s and 1960s, travel became ingful way. Despite all the improvements, easier. Israelis in general and Some people reacted to a situation children would regularly “escape”. kibbutzniks in particular became and then more people copied them, Yes, that’s the term we used to more aware of how people outside until the accidental experiment describe those who ran away to join their immediate circles lived. The became part of the established their parents at night. As far as I arrival of television in Israel in 1968 ideology, seen as a pillar of the recall (and I could find no evidence further exposed people to the lives of kibbutz movement and followed with either way), there was no harsh others. religious fervour in what was an consequence for doing this — it was The parents of the early- to mid- avowedly secular society. I can’t help just not allowed, and was considered 1970s were the products of these wondering how similar this must be a last resort. changes. These were parents who to the emergence of other social More typically, children who were often kibbutz children them- habits and traditions, and in par- needed attention for any reason selves, and grew up in communal ticular of religious dogma. would call the night watchwoman. living, yet they had the benefit of the My sister has a lasting memory of increased exposure to the outside References standing “for hours” under the world. They were also a lot less References in English and Hebrew intercom and calling the night idealistic. To them, kibbutz life was can be found on the Skeptics web watchwoman to come and help her just life, not a rebellion, and so they site.

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 43 News WA’s Young Critical Writers Continue To Bust Myths

From our WA correspondent moderately violent video game. Players became less calm and he WA Skeptics Awards more competitive, but for Young Critical T not physically violent. Writers was launched in But they may do so if 2006 to encourage critical they play for a longer thinking by students in period of time, or if they years 8-12 (ages 12-17). play games more Entrants are required to violent than the ones review the evidence for and we were allowed to use. against any curious belief Can students detect and then include their own messages in songs test or survey. Like the played backwards? Duke of Edinburgh’s Award, Twenty classmates ours is not a competition. All listened to Led Zeppe- entries achieving merit lin’s Stairway to heaven status receive a signed played backwards. It is certificate. said to talk about Satan This year, there were but nobody detected seven entries from a total of US Skeptic Dr Michael Shermer, visiting Australia for Science Week, anything. Concludes ten students and two presents Nicole Dakin with a Certificate of Merit. that such messages schools, which resulted in academic extension students. The depend on the listener being two Certificates of Merit and one openness of subject choice and choice prompted and are not real, being all Honourable Mention. The poor of individual or group work was in the mind. response was largely our fault. extremely well received by both Year 9: Chain letters (described Although we made contact with WA’s students and parents. It has also below). Does chewing increase science teachers via a two-page highlighted a number of areas in concentration? Eighteen classmates article “Innovations in the class- which these students need further chewed away but there were no room: Critical Thinking in Years 8- guidance and skill development. consistent improvements. 12” in the 25 April 2008 issue of Thank you.” Year 10: Pyramid power (described their quarterly journal SCIOS, below). Hair colour stereotypes (lists which has a circulation of 720, it Topics were diverse questions like “Do blondes have appeared too close to our 31 May more fun?” but no answers). The deadline to be effective. This year’s entries showed a pleas- ing tendency to address social topics Bloody Mary myth (described Appreciation as well as purely paranormal topics, below). and were notable for including the Nevertheless, we continued to first entries from Year 8 and the first Certificates of Merit receive words of appreciation. From entry from a male student. The Do students believe in chain Newman Senior High School in WA’s topics and findings (paraphrased by letters and are they effective? by remote northwest with about 350 us) were as follows: Karenza Cabassi & Olivia De Hoog secondary students, a teacher wrote, Year 8: Do violent video games in year 9. “I must thank you for producing cause real life violence? Four girls such an inspiring critical writing The hypothesis was that chain letters and two boys aged 9-16 played a task, which I have been using with are a scam and do not perform any kind

Page 44 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 of magic. It was tested by surveying a Eu in year 10. As the legend goes, a Our challenge to site deniers Year 9 class of 30 students. 64% knew young woman called Mary was In the Autumn 2008 (28:1) issue of the what a chain letter was, of whom 9% executed because she practised the Skeptic we issued a proud challenge to had received one (then ignored it) and Black Arts. If, in a darkened room Australian skeptics’ children “Calling 18% knew someone who had received with a candle on either side of a all Kids in Years 8-12”, which ap- one. Only 3% thought they could bring mirror, you spin round chanting peared provocatively on page 13. The good luck. The hypothesis was con- “Bloody Mary” she will appear in the challenge was to suggest ways of firmed. reflection on the 13th chant and then improving the WA Skeptics website 4 pages with no references. scratch your face, or pull you into www.undeceivingourselves.com, which the mirror to live with her forever. It is aimed at young people and has lots Investigating Myths about Pyramids doesn’t work for Catholics. The myth of short easy-to-read articles showing by Nicole Dakin in Year 10. Is it true has been tested since the 1970s but skeptics undeceiving themselves that pyramids dehydrate materials with no record of it having been about horoscopes, moon gardening, placed inside them so that water confirmed. psychics, water divining, UFOs, evaporates faster and perishable A survey of 62 year 10s showed that 35 weeping statues, all the usual fun food is preserved? had tried the myth and had lived, stuff. For the most constructive I found that such claims began in the which is inconclusive. So we decided to comments we offered a prize of a young person’s skeptic book and fame 1960s but there was no actual evidence make a proper test. The myth was tested forever. that they were true. It may be that a with a mirror and two candles in a Only one response was received. In desert climate was the effective agent, bathroom with 8 non-Catholic class- effect it said we could make the site not pyramids, which meant that the mates (not us since we were Catholic). more interesting by making it more claims would be myths. To test the As each one started chanting we all interesting. Full marks for irrefutable claims I made a small pyramid 10 cm pretty much stopped breathing, with th logic and for being conceivably better high from hardboard, with an internal shivers down our spines. When the 13 than saying nothing (which is what platform that allowed material to be chant was reached we opened the door, their skeptic parents did when placed in the centre of the enclosed and each time we saw with our own eyes invited). The conclusion seems space. Its effect was observed first on a that nothing had happened. We then equally irrefutable — either the small container of water vs a duplicate tried variations like using only one can- combined might of Australia’s skep- kept outside the pyramid as a control, dle, having the subjects try different tics and their children have failed to and then on half a cherry tomato vs the chants like “Hell Mary”, having them find anything about our website that other half outside the pyramid (the start by shouting “Bloody Mary come can be improved, or like Barry pyramid was too small to accommodate out”, and having them start with a Williams (on the last several times anything larger). Each was observed for whisper and end up yelling. But still when we checked) they have not yet three days. If anything there was less nothing happened. had time to look at it. evaporation inside the pyramid (2 mm Finally we filled our bedroom with mir- vs 4 mm), probably because it provided rors and reflective objects (it took a few Visits to the WA Skeptics website shelter from drafts, and the half-tomato days to set up without our parents The visits for each four-week period was less shrivelled than the control. knowing), and all eight subjects since its launch on 20 November 2007, Conclusion: in this case pyramid ef- chanted together. It was a windy night a total of 36 weeks, are shown below. fects seem to be a myth. But further tests and all of us were shaking with fright. The hit rate over the last 4 periods is should be made with other foods and But again nothing happened other than twice that over the first 4 periods. pyramids made of other materials. the wind howling. Conclusion: this Enter “undeceiving ourselves” into The entry was very readable and hundred-year-old legend is just a scary Google and our website is listed first was a good example of initiative in myth. out of 8830 pages, or eighth out of the midst of indifference, being the 5 pages with no references. 46,900 pages when “undeceiving” is only entry from one of the larger entered by itself. senior high schools in WA with 1300 secondary students. 10 pages with 6 references. Honourable Mention An Honourable Mention is an entry not achieving full merit status but having a novel feature deserving recognition. Is the Bloody Mary myth true? by Ashleigh Della-Marianna & Sandra

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 45 Article The Trick or Miracle Paradox

How to cross-over from entalism is a form of perform you are doing tricks. Some people magician to ‘real’ Mance magic that simulates the will believe even after you’ve said miracle worker paranormal, most commonly mind- you’re using tricks! So once you’ve reading, predicting the future and decided what disclaimer you are psychokinesis. Magicians get in- going to use, here are the four main volved in skepticism because a lot of rules of changing from magician to the time so-called ‘real’ psychics are real psychic. doing very standard magic tricks. But what makes the difference Rule 1 between appearing to be a magician Have only one trick. and appearing to be the real deal? This is the most important rule. Here I present a few rules for any Diversity in the psychic trade will half-decent magicians who would kill you. Find one trick you can do like to throw away their morals, quite well, and milk the hell out of break all the mirrors in their houses it. Do it to death. Very few psychics so they don’t have to look at them- with more than three tricks at most selves any more, and most impor- have ever made it big! Consider the tantly, start making some real most famous names of psychic money by making the jump to history; pseudo-miracle worker. Being a • The Fox Sisters: These girls started touring cold reader, for example, has the whole spirit summoning phenom- one hell of a profit margin! Think of enon in the mid-1800s, and their trick it this way: you can charge the same was really quite simple. They made prices per ticket as David ghost rapping noises by cracking their Copperfield or world famous rock toes, and tying an apple to a string and bands, and you don’t even have all banging it on the floor. Their home in the heavy stuff to carry around! It’s New York was swamped by people want- just you, by yourself on a stage. Now ing to speak to the spirits, and the girls that’s profit! would gladly repeat this trick for any- For many audience members the one who asked. worlds of entertainer and genuine psychic are separated only by the • Henry Slade: After the Fox sisters inclusion or omission of a straight- made spiritualism big and the craze forward disclaimer. As many mental- made its way to Europe, Henry Slade ists will attest to, some people will was there to provide some physical evi- only believe what you’re doing is real dence from beyond. Slade’s trick in- if you make an explicit statement volved two chalk board slates, the kind school kids used to write on. The par- Peter Booth is a postgraduate student in that you’re not using tricks. Others ticipant would be asked to think of a journalism at Griffith University. are the opposite and will believe it is question for the spirits. The slates would www.petebooth.com all real unless you explicitly state

Page 46 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 be placed together, some scratching sounds paper float up a metre in to the air, a skeptic will explain the method the would be heard, the slates would be sepa- do somersaults and then float back psychic most often uses. This is rated and a suitably vague magic 8-ball down, there is obviously invisible good, because to use a gambling style answer would be written on the slates thread or some other nefarious term, that person is now “half- in chalk. A well known magic trick nowa- gimmick in use. If however, a psy- smart”, meaning they will be primed days, this one trick made Slade a small chic stares at the crumpled up paper and ready to be fooled with a method fortune. Slade was eventually arrested for ball for two minutes, and then different from the one they are so fraud and tried at London’s Old Bailey. Bi- finally it moves three inches across diligently looking for. zarrely, Charles Darwin contributed a the table, they must be using real For example, when James great deal of money towards Slade’s pros- psychic powers. Hydrick went on the That’s Incred- ecution. Even more bizarrely, Alfred Now of course this thinking is ible television show in 1981, the host Russell Wallace, the man who developed bad. According to the laws of science was sure he had caught on to the theory of evolution alongside Darwin, as we know them, if Uri Geller Hydrick’s method, and he had. He appeared as a witness for Slade’s defence. makes a spoon bend one inch with knew Hydrick was blowing on the psychic powers, that is equally as pencil. So then Hydrick offered to do • Uri Geller: Spoons, spoons and impossible as making the Statue of the trick again, with the host’s hand more spoons. And occasionally he’d du- Liberty disappear. If James Hydrick positioned over his mouth. From plicate a sealed-up picture for you. had made the pencil move, then there, Hydrick simply repositioned • James Hydrick: Hydrick shot to float, then dance a jig, not a single the pencil right on the edge of the fame in the early 1980s with an eerie person would have believed him table, and used the air from the psychic ability to move pencils along a (maybe I’m being very optimistic movement of his hands as they table with his mind. He would then psy- here). passed over the pencil to move it. cho-kinetically turn the pages of a phone This is based on a principle of Still a very simple method, but book. For any beginner magician it was magic called “The too perfect because it was not the one the host pretty clear how he moved these items theory”. It means deliberately was looking for, Hydrick completely — he blew on them. James Randi even- weakening a trick to make it more befuddled him, to the point that the tually busted Hydrick, exposing his one believable. For example, if a magi- show declared Hydrick genuine and trick. In fairness though, Hydrick could cian is going to predict three head- they were awarded a Bent Spoon do this trick really, really well. lines that will appear in the next from James Randi. • The Great Carlos: And of course day’s newspaper, then seal the Similarly when skeptics explain predictions in an envelope to be spoon bending, they’ll usually just there’s the Great Carlos. A creation of revealed after the events, they will explain one method. This is perfect James Randi, let loose to test the credu- almost always deliberately get one for someone like Uri Geller, because lous media. Randi taught young artist wrong. Even if the trick allows them he has several methods, some Jose Alvarez the old pulse stopping trick to get all three headlines correct, weaker than others, some using to add some flavour to his claims of chan- predicting only two of the three misdirection and some using nelling the spirit of Carlos. A simple ball correctly makes them seem suitably gimmicked spoons — any one of under the arm stopping the flow of blood psychic and amazing, whilst not which he can fool someone with. convinced whoever was taking Alvarez’s crossing the too perfect boundary Slade had a couple of methods for pulse that his heart had stopped. Again, that screams a trick. So remember, making the writing appear on the Alvarez did this trick really, really well. less is more when it comes to trying slates. There are at least half a So pull out an old magic book, to appear psychic. dozen methods I know of for pre- find a trick, and do that trick over tending to stop your pulse. As Steve and over again till someone believes Rule 3 Shaw, one of the magicians James it’s real. When choosing a trick for Have at least a couple of meth- Randi sent in undercover to fool yourself though, pay attention to the ods for pulling off your trick. scientists, says, it’s better to teach next rule… OK, so you’ve got your one trick and someone they can be fooled rather Rule 2 you’ve made sure it doesn’t stretch than how it’s being done. Until then credibility too much. This is the trick though, you can use people’s knowl- Much, much less, is much, much you’ll be taking around the world. edge against them. more. Eventually if you get famous enough “If it goes up, it’s a trick. If it goes someone will try and bust you on it. Rule 4 across, it’s real.” This is an old adage So be ready to throw them off by “It’s not about me, it’s about all concerning psychic tricks. Basically changing paths. Have one main way of us!” it means the more impressive a trick for doing your trick, the one that To make it big as a psychic, you looks, the less convinced most people looks the best and is the most have to give people the message that will be that it’s real. For example, if deceptive. But have a plan B. a magician makes a crumpled ball of Usually when debunking a psychic, Continued p 49...

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 47 Experience Skepticism and Babies

Pregnancy is stressful enough, aving recently had a baby, I’ve practises such as homeopathy, which without having to cope Hspent a lot of time researching I find a particularly deceptive and issues on the internet, ranging from annoying treatment. Sure, in many with dodgy advice the effect of acupuncture on IVF of these cases where there’s a very success rates, to vaccinations in subjective measurement (eg pain young children. And wow, there is a levels, nausea) placebo might be lot of bad information out there, as helpful, but I personally would well as poorly informed people who rather not pay money for the placebo are willing to pass their opinions, effect, and be lied to, when there are based on incorrect information or other more effective evidence-based faulty logic, as ‘fact’ to other mothers treatments available. or soon-to-be mothers. I wrote an email to the owner of A lot of the misinformation I’ve the site, asking why they have so seen is fairly minor, and often much information on treatment flagged as such, eg “here’s some fun modalities that are marginally ways to determine whether you’re helpful at best. The response was having a boy or girl”, while explain- that many women use these types of ing that it’s all just in fun and none treatments, and they want to in- of them actually work. While on the clude things that people use. So I one hand, it’s good to explain what responded that they should at least doesn’t work, I’m not sure how much include some factual information of it sticks, particularly as I’ve had about its effectiveness, particularly people tell me with all seriousness with something like homeopathy that they knew I was having a boy which has been shown to not actu- or girl based on things that are ally do anything. The reply included known to have nothing to do with the claim that a friend’s child had the sex of my baby (mostly to do been cured of his life-threatening with size and shape of my bump). peanut allergy by homeopathy. My first encounter with a serious I struggled to know how to re- issue was while reading the email spond to this outrageous statement. newsletters and online information At first I wanted to blast her for of a major pregnancy/baby website (I spreading such a dangerous claim. feel I probably won’t mention the Then I calmed down and thought name!). They had a lot of informa- about the more educational ap- tion about different treatments for proach, ie explaining the facts to her. pregnancy symptoms and birth, Then I got angry again and consid- Katharine Shade, who hails from Melbourne, is much of which was either debatable ered a more sarcastic approach a graphic designer. Clara, whose existence as to whether it does anything along the lines of “right, so if it’s so made this article possible, is an outstanding useful (eg chiropractic, acupunc- simple, that’s why thousands of example of her Mum’s work. ture), or known pseudoscientific children are living in a life-threaten-

Page 48 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 ing situation. Please let me know there might be a reaction to the this issue), I have to decide how what journal this case will be injections, safe in the knowledge much I am going to stand up for written up in!” that others are immunising, making clear thinking and an understanding Instead I let it drop. While I their children fairly safe. of statistics, and how they apply to usually end up preferring the Unfortunately though, the more an individual, let alone basic skepti- educational approach, this exchange parents decide to do this, the more cism — and how much I just have to was causing me to lose sleep while I likely we are to get outbreaks as the let wash over me. Particularly as thought about what the perfect reply herd immunity goes down, which I’ve found that if I enter into these would be, and it wasn’t worth my can be seen with the current pockets types of discussion, I’m the one going time banging my head on a brick of measles outbreaks in the US. We off and actually researching the wall when I was so busy with work see so few of the effects of these topic, which can get very time and preparing for the birth of my diseases now, that people just don’t consuming. child. realise how hideous they are and For the moment I’m keeping my I have also been involved in an how important it is to keep the head down, with just the occasional online forum about children and immunisation levels in the popula- comment to try to head people vaccinations — there’s a hot button tion up. towards the factual track. But as I topic! And it’s not just the insidious As I encounter more and more of have more encounters with parents meme about the “link” to autism, it’s these issues (you should see how in the general community, I suspect the generally blasé attitude towards much the ‘trying to conceive’ people, I might be brushing up a bit more on these serious diseases, leading to particularly those going through some of these issues so I can come many parents deciding not to immu- IVF, have embraced acupuncture back quickly and accurately with the nise so as to avoid the tiny chance after poor reporting in the media on facts!

... Magic from p 47 your abilities are within everyone, bucks, you’re setting that person up just believe it or you don’t. If I say I can’t and you are just able to harness for a visit to a 700-dollar-a-session read your mind but there’s ways that I them a bit more. This will be really medium down the line when they’ve can fake it, all of a sudden the bit is tough for most magicians. Most lost a loved one. So help spread the automatically political. You’re auto- magicians are, dare I say it, quite takings! matically talking about propaganda. insecure people, and would like to So there are the four main rules. You’re automatically talking about love. make it clear that any powers Be warned though. If you are a You’re automatically talking about buy- demonstrated belong to them and magician and present what you’re ing a used car. So instead of just going, them alone, making them a very doing as real, not only will you be “We went to see this nut who thought special person worthy of worship seen by other magicians as morally he had powers”, or, “We went to see this and admiration. You can’t afford to reprehensible, you will also be evil guy who lied to us”, you have this do that in the psychic game though. viewed as artistically very lazy. whole rainbow of other choices. You’ll get much further if you say Magicians think performers choose However, if you just want to make anyone can do what you do (espe- to present their tricks as real be- a quick buck and get a short-cut to cially if you sell a pricey book telling cause they are afraid they wouldn’t fame, follow these four golden rules. them how). be entertaining or interesting There won’t be any shortage of And show some concern for your enough otherwise. Magician Penn media knocking at your door and if fellow charlatans! You are supposed Jillette explains: in the end you get found out, then to be opening up a gateway for a If I say I have supernatural powers, I just pull out the old, “I’ve always warped belief system, sowing the can read your mind, then you simply been an entertainer — I can’t help it seeds of vulnerability that others in have about three choices. You can as- if people believed I was real” card. your trade will then be able to sume that I’m insane. You can assume If nothing else, there’ll always be exploit. So pretending these powers that I’m a liar who’s trying to dupe you. a place for you next to other B-grade are exclusive to you is very selfish to Or you can believe it. And those are your celebrities on dodgy reality TV your fellow scam artists indeed! only three choices. There aren’t even shows. Remember, even if you’ve decided to really very many shades of that. You read tarot cards for someone for 20

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 49 Review Malice in Weirdland

Skepticism, crime and Attack of the Unsinkable Rubber author, Donald E Westlake, excels in punishment Ducks, Christopher Brookmyre; this field, based on the exploits of his Abacus, London, 408pp. hapless criminal ‘mastermind’, John Dortmunder. However, it would When an editor‘s not engaged in his require literary skills of Shakespear- employment (his employment) ean proportions for me to enjoy any novel in which the protagonist was a Or maturing his pedantic little plans psychic detective. (little plans) For some reason, many of my His capacity for innocent enjoyment favourite writers in the field are (cent enjoyment) British; Colin Dexter, Reginald Hill, Peter Robinson. Ian Rankin, John Is just as great as any honest man’s Harvey, Stuart Pawson, Graham (honest man’s) Hurley and Barry Maitland, being (With apologies to W.S. Gilbert) among the best of them. Each has his overworked detective hero, ery true, and when not engaged usually an inspector, most of whom Vin welding together split infini- are no longer married and with tives, excising dangling participles varying temperaments, ranging and inserting verbs into sentences from Rankin’s tortured John Rebus penned by distinguished scientists, I to Pawson’s ever-cheerful Charlie find my relaxation in reading fiction. Priest. I’m not sure why, but several While I enjoy science fiction, lately I of these authors spend a serious have been reading more crime amount of exposition time covering fiction. their (or their characters’) musical As my innate skepticism leads me tastes, which often leave me be- to prefer plausible stories, I tend to mused, as I really have no idea favour those described as “police about most modern music. The rare procedurals”, where crimes are exceptions, though, endear both solved by police officers or others Colin Dexter’s Morse (opera) and likely to be involved in the forensic John Harvey’s Charlie Reznick (jazz) process. For much the same reason I to me. tend to avoid “cosies” where the Despite my voracious appetite, in protagonist might be a fashion my search for yet more bloody designer, a banker, a spinster lady crimes to whet my appetite, I had living in a village or a cat. Neverthe- somehow overlooked the talents of less, I do enjoy a good “caper” novel, the Scottish writer, Christopher Barry Williams, Editor of the Skeptic, may not where implausibilities can be Brookmyre. Then I received a review be shy, but he will be retiring at the end of the forgiven if the writer carries it off of the above book from Canadian year. He then plans to read a lot more books. with style and wit. The American author and rationalist, William

Page 50 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 Harwood. It sounded like an inter- expect from an investigative journal- these issues. In case the reader has esting book, but as the reviewer’s ist. The big surprise is that his story any doubts, I can reveal that the comments were aimed at a North is being told in the first person, but book is dedicated to James Randi American market, I decided to get in the knowledge that he is dead and Richard Dawkins and at the hold of it for myself — I am so glad I while telling it. Of course, as with back the author lists a number of did. any good crime yarn, this is all books he used to get insights into Set in present day Glasgow, its worked out by the last page (don’t the psychic industry; books by plot revolves about a prominent worry, I have no intention of giving James Randi, Michael Shermer, American psychic who, with the away the ending). Richard Wiseman, among others to support of an English shopping However, while the book might be found in any Skeptic’s library. centre tycoon, is seeking to have his pose some extra puzzles for the Part of the title of the book, “Un- unusual powers validated by scien- average reader, many of them will sinkable Rubber Ducks”, he at- tific investigation at a university. seem depressingly familiar to tributes to a description given to His main claim is the ability to anyone who has been involved with paranormal claimants by James obtain, and to pass on, personal the Skeptics for any length of time. Randi. information that it is seemingly To the Skeptical reader, the While the main story deals with impossible for him to know, about defence of the paranormal by the the psychic’s claims of talking to the his subject and their deceased journalist, Jillian, will seem all too dead, other paranormal and relatives. To achieve this objective, predictable: “How can you measure pseudoscientific issues get more and over the strong objections of the love?”, “Science can’t tell you every- than passing mention: alternative Dean of Science, the tycoon is thing”, “Scientists are blinded by medicine, psychokinesis, creation- prepared to endow a new chair their prejudices (against the par- ism, UFO abductions and conspiracy within the Science Department at anormal)”, “Scientists ignore incon- theories all feature among the the local university, to study par- venient evidence”, “Millions of gamut of other issues with which we anormal events. (No prizes for people believe ...” and on and on. Skeptics deal as a regular part of guessing which way the university We’ve all heard it many times, and what we do. administration goes.) other articles in this issue give even I have long thought that a good Some of the dialect is a bit hard to more examples of this sort of think- thriller could be written about the comprehend unless, like me, you ing. Sadly, far too many people intricacies and sheer weirdness of have hung around with the likes of readily accept them all as reason- the paranormal industry. I have Dr Alex Ritchie for a quarter century able arguments. even flattered myself that trying to or so, then it’s not all that difficult. The science student also takes a do it might be a worthwhile project (Alex will expostulate that as he’s tack that will be familiar to active in my retirement. But I have never from Edinburgh, while the story is Skeptics. He tries explaining prob- written anything longer than some set in Glasgow, the dialects are ability, cold reading, memory tricks articles in the Skeptic, and have no totally different. As Scotland’s two (remembering hits, forgetting idea how to write a novel. With this largest cities are about the same misses) and all the usual explana- book, it looks as though Christopher distance apart as Manly and tions, with no result. He is reduced Brookmyre (who certainly can write Penrith, I’d find that unconvincing.) to putting on a show, in which he novels) has saved me from that In this book that author takes a replicates the stunts used by the embarrassment. His books (I have somewhat unusual approach, in that ‘psychic’, but again the results are since read a few others) are hard- the story-line is advanced through predictable: some excoriated him for nosed, dripping in gore, irreverent, the first person points of view of trying to make them think, others satirical, often violent, but above all, three different protagonists; two suspected that he really did have thoroughly good fun. Just the stuff journalists and a science student. psychic powers, but was hiding them for the crime addict and skeptic. One journalist, a woman who is also from himself, yet others ignored all the wife of the Scottish Education the evidence and believed that he Secretary, is an enthusiastic sup- really was presenting a psychic Footnote porter of the claims of the psychic, performance. But one (his love while the science student is as interest) at least was won over, If you read fiction of any kind, I vigorously opposed and does every- having previously been ‘burned’ by must pass on an outstanding web thing he can to expose what he sees the celebrity psychic. Again, these site that lists more than 15,000 as fraud. are all reactions with which we authors of various styles and in The second journalist, Jack Skeptics are familiar and with which many genres and which, further- Parlabane (a leading character in a we have had to learn to cope. more, is constantly being updated. number of earlier books by As the story unfolds it becomes www.fantasticfiction.co.uk/ Brookmyre) is as cynical, skeptical crystal clear where Parlabane, and It’s a beaut. and cross-grained as one would by extension, the author, stand on

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 51 Forum Global Warming and Climate Change

David Tribe Warming) and the New Testament (Cli- grants — but all within a strategy of mate Change), eternally chant the Gos- not rocking the boat too much. pel message (An Inconvenient Truth). I Something should also be said Neutral Bay NSW forswear the Devil (industrialisation) about the media on which scientists and all his wicked ways (Greenhouse- increasingly depend for recognition, he flip answer to this question is Gas Emissions) and hope to elude the despite a pose of peer-review remote- Tthat we’re experiencing warm- jaws of Hell (Planetary Disaster) and ness. Popular science is largely ing (it’s called “spring”) and we’ve join the Saints in Heaven (Emissions written by staff journalists with little long learnt to cope with climate Trading Scheme [ETS]). or no background in particular change (they’re called “the seasons”). Before any consideration of what subjects or by outside “experts”, Of course, global warming-climate “science says” in this area, some- perhaps with axes to grind and a change (GWCC) doesn’t call for flip thing should be said about science willingness to waive fees. When staff answers and deserves serious itself. writers and editors eventually gain debate. But, we’re incessantly told, The GWCC faithful, including understanding of a topic they work it the debate’s all over and anyone who scientists, are now talking as if to death, for writing takes much less wants to prolong it is no longer a science were a solid phalanx of time than research. But to secure respectable doubter or skeptic, but a knowledge, subject only to a few scoops they remain hostage to any denier (like the holocaust deniers) casualties on the flanks. In reality, importunate scientist who gains and probably financed by the oil or throughout history it’s been a dad’s their ear. Usually they’re anxious not coal lobby. The topic has passed from army of contradictory hypotheses to appear ignorant by defying re- being an issue to becoming, as and theories variously recruited and ceived opinion. And they know that Patrick Michaels said in The Wash- uniformed in a motley of true and good news — apart from “medical ington Post in 1989, “the most false observations, of experiments, miracles” — is less marketable than popular new religion to come along comparisons, analyses, speculations, bad news. since Marxism”. fantasies and frauds. Some of its Exploring the territory of this Its creed for the “last days” is: soldiers, like the theory of evolution, article I’ve entered a jungle of I believe in Global Warming and Cli- fight on to become heroes; others, contradictory research findings such mate Change created by human activ- like creation “science”, are arrested that, at this stage, it’s probably ity, and in God the Father (What and dishonourably discharged. better for freethinkers to be GWCC “Science Says”), God the Son (Al [“I am As a group, scientists are as wise, agnostics than atheists. Climatology, the way, the truth and the life”] Gore) foolish, bigoted, conformist, ambi- let alone palaeoclimatology, is and God the Holy Ghost (Intergovern- tious and self-seeking as any other. immensely complicated, as every mental Panel on Climate Change They’re exposed to the same deter- weather forecaster knows; but my [IPCC]). I also believe in the four Arch- mining tendency (wishful thinking) doubts about the supposed reality of angels (Ross Garnaut, James Hansen, and lurch between the poles of escalating anthropogenic (human- Stephen Schneider and Edward Teller) academic respectability and daring generated) global warming and and the Heavenly Host of attractively innovation. Specifically, they need to climate change are sufficiently grave green cherubim and seraphim who, in- “publish or perish”, rush into print that, on a risk-return basis, heroic, spired by the Old Testament (Global prematurely to avoid pre-emption, costly and clearly problematic cherry-pick data, to construct models “solutions” should be avoided. supporting fashionable hypotheses, While an alarmist 2007 IPCC David Tribe, who trained in physical and biological dramatise conclusions to gain media report, written by 800 climate sciences, is an author, journalist, broadcaster and headlines and ongoing research researchers and vetted by 2,500 an internationally known humanist. scientists from 130 nations, looks

Page 52 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 impressive, it must be read in the Svante Arrhenius, and direct meas- stable or fall slightly till 2015, when light of observations about science urements have been made only since most climatologists say they’ll rise above. 1860. again. The issue resolves into six ques- Earlier than that there were no During the Cold War after World tions, whose principal pros and cons scientific observations and, of course, War II there were threats of nuclear follow. no experiments and no comparison of war and atmospheric testing of the Earth with other planets. All nuclear weapons, with fears that Question 1. earlier claims are inductions from radioactive clouds would reflect the studies of such things as marine and sun’s rays back into space, and it was Is there steady or escalating global lake sediments, cave deposits, corals, fashionable then to speak of a warming? tree rings and ice cores. Moreover, “nuclear winter”. Schneider wrote Because of numerous natural cycles, even contemporary measurements of The Genesis Strategy (1976), warning global temperatures can be shown to temperature vary in their techniques of the dire consequences of global be rising or falling depending on and locations, and are made at a cooling. As things hotted up in 2004 which time bite is chosen. This is limited number of stations on land he wrote Scientists Debate Gaia, and part of a broader tendency, also and even smaller numbers on sea in 2008 he declares the debate’s over found in share market and thera- and satellite. The figures produced and global warming is the new peutic analyses, to “data dredge” are manipulated (after adjustments disaster. those figures that support existing based on assumptions) in models and What he and other cultists over- hypotheses. These cycles are: crunched by computers. look is that 1800 was just within the (a) sunspot decadal of 11, 22 and 60–80 What about the time spans last Little Ice Age and we’d expect years; chosen? If we use round figures like temperatures to rise overall from (b) shifting-earth’s-axis (or sunspot) 1,000 or 10,000 years and calculate that date. Incidentally, the year 1998 millennial of 1,000–2,000 years (Little from a Little Ice Age or Ice Age to wasn’t only the hottest year in Ice Ages); today, of course we’ll find global modern times but also saw the 1997- warming. But those ages ended 98 ENSO effect (hot and dry in (c) changing-earth’s-orbit super- dramatically, with temperatures Australia), Hurricane Mitch and a millennial of 20-50 thousand years (Ice rising 5ºC in a few decades, so number of other well-publicised Ages); calculations from the start, of an storms and tempests. (d) tectonic-plate-movement super- interglacial period on broadly the When global cooling for 1979-94 millional of 100 million years (“Green- same time scale will show global was reported by Christy et al. in house” and “Ice House” World); cooling. 1995, the alleged impact of El Niño (e) surface-seawater-temperature The hottest year in modern times (ENSO) was removed from their Southern Oscillation, of apparently un- was 1998; then temperatures figures to show an acceptable warm- known cause, of 3–7 years (El Niño or dropped and fluctuated before ing. Yet global warming is alleged to ENSO); reaching a new but slightly lower cause El Niño, which is supposed to (f) similar but weaker North Atlantic peak in 2005 and falling away again. fortify warming. Schneider appears Oscillation of 10 years; “One million years” sounds like a to believe in escalating global warm- period so far back that it must ing, though he concedes that some (g) Atlantic Meridional Overturning Cir- embrace the hottest temperatures parts of the earth are cooling, and culation of 60 years. ever, but Maslin concedes that they outrageously likens GWCC skeptics What a happy hunting ground for were much higher in the dinosaur to the tobacco lobby. data dredgers. age and “over the last 100 million When Al Gore’s book An Inconven- James Hansen, head of a NASA years the Earth’s climate has been ient Truth (2006) won a Nobel Peace climatology team, tells us that the cooling down”. But crucial, and most Prize in 2007, and the documentary Earth’s temperature is within 1ºC of misleading in the current debate, is based on the book won two Oscars, its highest in the last one million dating global warming from 1800, also in 2007, it’s not surprising that years, that it has risen 0.75ºC since roughly the start of the Industrial a team of exasperated skeptics made 1800, and that atmospheric carbon Revolution. a documentary in reply, which Robyn dioxide is now “causing the Earth to At the fore in linking the two Williams of the ABC Science Unit warm faster than at any other time events is Stephen Schneider. Here it (SU) unsuccessfully tried to get during, at the very least, the past should be noted that between the banned in 2008. Though the title of one thousand years” (Mark Maslin’s Little Ice Ages are lesser cold and hot this short film was an exaggeration, Global Warming [2004]). periods, linked to solar cycles but in if not a defamation, one can under- Global warming was discovered an unpredictable way. Thus we had a stand why its makers called it The only in 1896 —after the prolonged warm 1910-40, a cool 1940-75 and a Great Global Warming Swindle. cold spell described by Victorian warm 1975-98. It’s now generally (When prestigious skeptics were novelists — by the Swedish scientist conceded that temperatures will be discovered overseas, in April and

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 53 Forum

May 2008 Professors Don Aitken and Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific show temperatures rose before levels

Schneider were invited to put the cyclones became somewhat less of CO2. case for and against skepticism on frequent, but the weather obliged the the SU’s Ockham’s Razor.) faithful by becoming more unpredict- Question 4. able, and floods occurred everywhere Question 2. thanks largely to La Niña. Are greenhouse-gas emissions signifi- A 2001 IPCC report announced cantly caused by human activity? Is there climate change caused by th clear evidence that the 20 Century First a tribute to these demonised global warming? saw a 0.6ºC rise in global tempera- gases. Without them Earth’s atmos- The escalating warming of the 1980s tures and a 20 cm rise in sea level. phere would be -20ºC — on the way triggered the formation in 1998 by Regardless of the total randomness down to Mars’s frigid -50ºC. the United Nations Environmental of climate change before and after Interestingly, the atmospheres of Panel and the World Meteorological the Industrial Revolution, or even both Mars and Venus have a high the evolution of Homo sapiens, it’s Organisation of the IPCC, with proportion of CO2. Where does it relatively little fanfare. hard to imagine such modest in- come from? Earth’s proportion of creases would massively affect the Much more attention was paid to CO2 has risen 30% and of CH4 240% the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, with its climate. since the Industrial Revolution. Why dual aim of reducing greenhouse Question 3: the difference, since burning fossil gases to curb global warming and of fuels produces both? Moreover, preserving biodiversity. It drew up Are greenhouse gas emissions in- better combustion over time might the United Nations Framework creasing? suggest reversed percentages. Convention on Climate Change, The fact is there are many sources Greenhouse gases are: whose protocols were formally of CO2 and CH4. Both are produced recognised at the Kyoto Conference (1) carbon dioxide (CO2), by the burning or natural decompo- of the Parties in 1997-98 and became (2) water vapour (H2O), sition of organic matter, in aerobic known as the Kyoto Protocol(s). (3) methane (CH ), and anaerobic conditions respec- Ratified by 186 countries in 2001, 4 tively. Constant metabolism in all (4) ozone (O ), it committed Australia to limit 3 living things is a form of combustion, (5) nitrous oxide (N2Oand greenhouse-gas emissions to 108% of generally producing CO2, though 1990 levels by 2012, when new limits (6) rare gases both natural and man- this process is outweighed by photo- would be proposed. Other developed made. synthesis of green plants during the countries had other goals. There Together they form about 1% of day. James Lovelock, originator of were no sanctions for non-compli- the atmosphere. In dry weather (1) the Gaia Hypothesis, is reported as ance, and the world’s biggest pollut- preponderates, in wet (2). Least saying that human breathing ers were excluded: the US because it impacting on global warming per produces five times more CO2 in refused to ratify; India and China as tonne is (1), with (3) 23 times more Britain than all its industrial non-signing developing countries. potent and sulphur hexafluoride emissions; and the farting of rumi- Global temperatures subsided 22,200 times. nants, notably cows, reputedly after 1998, but rose to a slightly During a hot period, three million produces as much CH4 as industry. lesser peak in 2005. This year also While fossil-fuel power stations, years ago, CO2 (taken as the indica- saw many deaths from heat stroke in tor of global warming) represented oil refineries and other factories are Europe and a number of natural 350-450 p.p.m., much higher than conspicuous sources of greenhouse disasters, especially Hurricane gases and get almost all the blame, today. But CO2 levels and Earth’s Katrina at New Orleans in August, temperature are today the highest other sources are motor vehicles, just before Cyclone Larry at Innisfail for 500,000 years. Over the last ten aeroplanes (which jet Al Gore and in March 2006. years both have shown no increase, his entourage round the world), The Boxing Day tsunami of 2004 and over the last 100 million years mining, painting and concreting. In was a lively memory, and to GWCC both have dropped. It is therefore my view, however, more important devotees it didn’t matter that tsuna- generally recognised that both are than all of these manmade causes is mis are caused by submarine earth- closely associated. deforestation, partly to produce quakes, volcanoes, or avalanches in At issue is which causes what. “green” biofuels, though John continental shelves, and have Martin says land clearing could Clearly, rises in CO2 increase the nothing to do with the atmosphere. temperature, while temperature raise oceans’ iron content and After 2005, temperatures fell enhance their ability to absorb CO . increases elevate emissions of CO2 2 away again, though “global warm- from the oceans. Advancing the Above all, whatever the conse- ing” was still asserted. But the skeptical case is the finding that ice quences of human activity, the mantra changed to a more elusive cores from the end of the last Ice Age population explosion — which and plausible “climate change”. GWCC devotees and even some

Page 54 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 skeptics carefully avoid — is obvi- environment. Localised bleachings, Trading Taskforce recommendations ously going to exacerbate them. like localised crown-of-thorns- and the NSW Greenhouse Gas starfish infestations attributed to Abatement (Reduction) Scheme have Question 5. fertilisers from neighbouring all been subsumed in the Rudd canefields, have come and gone since Government’s modified Garnaut What consequences face us if ques- observations began. plans. tions 1–4 are answered affirmatively? Melting glaciers, permafrost and Originally it seemed an ETS Even though we don’t know how ice floes, with consequent threats to would involve a global system many plant and animal species there everyone’s favourite polar bears and whereby developed countries bought are, we’re told that 50% of them are Australia’s very own Antarctica, are emissions credits from developing currently threatened and 75% will always in the news. Actually, only countries to aid the latter’s advance- be by 2100. That’s if any biosphere the smaller western portion of ment and reduce their deforestation, at all is left. Antarctica is losing ice; the rest is while polluters would pay for per- In fact, palaeohistory shows the gaining it. The impact of changing mits or licences or some other big killer, especially of vertebrates, ocean currents is generally ignored euphemism for taxes from their has been global cooling, not global unless they too can be dramatised. national governments; that is, an warming. We’re also told that It’s posited that melting Arctic ice untidy mix of carbon trading and (temperate) crops will fail and die in can alter deep-ocean circulation taxes. The untidiness has persisted the impending heat. Some may, but throughout the Atlantic, disrupt the and only got worse, so the appar- they can in future be grown at warm Gulf Stream and freeze ently simple Commonwealth “ambi- higher altitudes and latitudes, while eastern America and western tion” to implement in 2010 an ETS subtropical crops can take their Europe. The GWCC lobby can’t be with goals of 20% emissions reduc- place. And every gardener knows pleased to read a suggestion in Bjørn tion by 2020 and 60% by 2050 grows that most plants grow better in Lomborg’s Skeptical Environmental- more complicated every day. warm than cool conditions. ist: Measuring the Real State of the Basically, I’m not sure how credits Similarly, warming that might World (200l): a 2ºC–3ºC rise might will relate to permits, company to increase reverse-cycle air-condition- eliminate the troublesome ENSO. national emissions caps, the second- ing use in summer would reduce it ary market in permits to the pri- in winter (unless global warming Question 6. mary, and Australia’s ETS to those overseas. Futures on “commodities” causes colder winters). And more What should we do to avoid postu- people die from hypothermia than markets, now dominated by specula- hyperthermia. lated catastrophe? tors, are an added administrative Another horrific scenario is rising An emissions (or carbon pollution) nightmare. One suspects that, sea levels that will flood all deltas, trading scheme (ETS) is proposed for despite protestations, consumers coral islands and coastal plains. If secondary industries. Forestry and torn between annihilation of civilisa- the GWCC scaremongers are right, agriculture are currently deemed too tion and annihilation of their sav- this is global warming’s most likely hard to regulate because of the ings, and governments torn between and devastating consequence, difficulties and costs of measuring losing the biosphere and losing the leading to mass migrations and and monitoring emissions. next election, would in both cases racial tensions, if not wars. While Reportedly, IBM’s Global Environ- choose the former. So, to “ease the some academics have posited rises mental Policy envisaged an ETS in pain” the Commonwealth Green up to 80 metres, a 2001 IPCC report 1971, but it gained attention only in Paper offers a cornucopia of free says only that a forecast tempera- the noughties and implementation permits, offsets and cash compensa- ture rise by 2100 of 1.4ºC to 5.8ºC by the UK in 2002 and European tion. These appear to benefit big could raise sea levels 20 to 88 cm. Union in 2005. It’s hoped that dirty polluters over small, dirty coal over Alarmists point to islands already non-renewable fossil fuels, also oil and natural gas, private over inundated, but land subsidence is required for chemicals and plastics, public transport and logging over clearly the cause. will be replaced as power generators agriculture. Coral bleaching, through dis- by clean renewable sources like If carbon dioxide is such a men- solved carbon dioxide and resultant hydro, wind, solar, tidal and ace, it would have been far cheaper acidification, is also advanced; and geothermal. Some brave Australians and easier to add it to the “toxic” politicians are led to chosen sites even mention uranium. A mandatory emissions controlled under State where it’s currently happening. In renewable energy target is 20% of all Clean Air Acts. The money saved fact, unless the sea level steadily power generation by 2020. could then have gone to advancing rose or the bedrock steadily fell The Howard Government’s clean-coal and renewable technolo- whole reefs would die as they grew Shergold proposals, the States and gies, and to developing ways to upwards beyond their aquatic Territories’ National Emissions reduce energy usage.

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 55 Forum

cold point in the cycle). Even a decade tary reduction in emissions. Even if it Just the facts? is too small to mean much. Given this, does not we may have either passed there are reasonable grounds to say peak oil back in 20052 or are about to that we haven’t yet had enough time pass it in 20103, and even coal re- Guy Cox since the Industrial Revolution to make sources probably have a rather shorter any definitive statements and I lifetime than many people realise. So, University of Sydney wouldn’t disagree with this. Consider- one or two hundred years from now, ing the possible consequences, though, what is left of the human race will see it seems prudent to try to do the best the result of the experiment. ohn Gibbs (the Skeptic 28:2, p51) J may be a Skeptic, but he sure we can with admittedly limited data. The most worrying aspect is another knows how to use the techniques of the Secondly, we need to realise that we point made by Gibbs (and other climate live in a rather unusual climate from sceptics), that CO levels have in the creationists. First off he goes for the 2 traditional creationist line — it’s not up an historic point of view. The ‘normal’ past risen after a rise in global tem- to me to prove my viewpoint — it’s your climate on Earth, over several hundred perature. Well, it may have escaped million years, is much warmer than their notice that man-made CO job to prove yours. (Why exactly? Is his 2 climate view dictated by God?) Next we now, with no polar ice caps (or with a emissions haven’t been significant in get that he won’t listen to any argu- small ice cap on the south pole). Such a the past. Of course CO2 levels rise after ments “unless and until one can explain climate prevailed (with variations) a rise in temperature — gases are less what has been causing the continuous, from the Cretaceous until the soluble in water at higher temperature, 1 sometimes extreme, variations in the Pleistocene ice ages . so CO2 comes out of solution. Frozen Earth’s climate that have been taking The Pleistocene ice ages plunged organic matter becomes available for place for billions of years.” Doesn’t that Earth into cold periods, interspersed fungal and bacterial decomposition sound just a little bit like, “I won’t with warmer interglacials. Gibbs when it warms up, producing more listen to any arguments for evolution believes that we are in an interglacial CO2. So what this means is that if man- until you can explain exactly how every right now – but if so it is a most made CO2 is causing global warming, little detail evolved”? unusual one. Previous interglacials there is going to be a positive feedback, There are of course lots of geologists were much warmer than the current amplifying the effect. Of course if (as and paleoclimatologists working on just climate, with sea levels tens of metres Gibbs claims) man-made CO2 is this problem but the answers will higher than now. They were also much actually causing global cooling, we have probably take a while. Maybe in a few shorter than the 12,000 years of nothing to worry about. The only years NASA will have the technology to relatively mild climate we have just problem is that we do know sound make a kilometre-sized asteroid crash enjoyed. The climate right now is more physical reasons why CO2 has a into Earth to find out what it does to like a mild glacial than an interglacial, greenhouse effect (and we know that the climate, but I suspect there would so it seems at least plausible that the without it Earth would be too cold for be a fair bit of opposition to such an oscillations that caused the ice ages are life). There is no physical basis or experiment ... Do we really need to now dying out and we are moving back, empirical evidence for the opposite have the answers to everything that very slowly, to a ‘normal’ warm Earth. view, so unless you believe it as a has happened over billions of years to Funnily enough, in spite of his state- religious tenet, it would be unwise to research the effects of the (undisputed) ment that we are in an interglacial, put too much faith in it. increase in atmospheric CO2 that has Gibbs seems to agree with this. Bottom line – both Gibbs and I occurred over a mere 200 years? So where does this leave us? It does believe the Earth is warming anyway. Let’s step back and look at the seem that we should be a bit careful. If My view is that for the sake of the situation quite dispassionately. First, the icecaps are going to melt anyway, survival of civilization we should be we need to realise that there is an 11- then sea levels are going to rise – but if wary of accelerating the process. Since year sunspot cycle which determines we speed up the process we will have the relevant precautions will also how much radiation reaches Earth. less time to adapt. More worrying is the ameliorate the social and economic Therefore, looking at anything on a prospect that we might make the effects of the inevitable run-out of fossil smaller scale than this is totally climate even warmer that it was in the fuels, it would seem to be a win-win meaningless. There is no point in past, at which point much of the planet situation to move to renewable energy taking any notice of whether this year might become too hot for life. Dooms- sources as fast as we can. was warmer or cooler than last year. day talk, indeed, but let’s not get (Right now we are at a sunspot mini- carried away. Notes mum so we should be – and are – at the The hypothesis that man-made CO2 1. A. Ananthaswamy. Once the South is causing global warming is falsifiable. Pole was green. New Scientist 2661, We just need to cut CO emissions and 32-36, 21 June 2008. Guy Cox is an Associate Professor at the Electron 2 see if temperatures fall. This will Microscope Unit, University of Sydney. We 2. M. Simmons, Time to go cold turkey. happen, though I may not see it in my New Scientist 2662, 22, 28 June 2008. apologise for labelling him as Assistant Prof in a lifetime. Maybe all the inter-govern- previous issue. 3. I. Sample, Final warning. New mental hot air will generate a volun- Scientist 2662, 33-37, 28 June 2008.

Page 56 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/jonescru/jones. Rate of temperature change consti- The facts? html tutes a new prediction, especially if Graphical representations of the there’s a big deviation from some trends can be found here: underlying trend. It’s just like the rate cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/jonescru/ of change of price of a share — that Robert O’Connor graphics/nhshgl.jpg may influence a purchase or sale and here: decision, and have significant financial Gorokan NSW data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ consequences to market participants. The following set of observations The interesting thing is, someone ohn Gibbs has again had some suggests something unusual is going predicted the last two decades’ tem- Jinteresting things to say. on: every year since 1992 has been perature rise rate back in 1988, using 1 ..I will require it to satisfy the classical warmer than 1992; the ten hottest one of those terrible computer models criteria of true science, including being years on record occurred in the last 15; ...and it continues to track temperature liable to falsifiable tests and making every year since 1976 has been warmer observations fairly well, given its genuinely new predictions. than 1976; the 20 hottest years on limitations: record occurred in the last 25; every www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/103/39/ How does he know that “it is an year since 1956 has been warmer than 14288 established fact that the planet has 1956; and every year since 1917 has Additionally, the effects of events been in a warming trend with the ice been warmer than 1917. like the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 were caps melting and the glaciers retreat- data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/ modeled and there was good fit with ing ever since the present inter-glacial subsequently observed temperatures 2-5. period began about 12,000 years ago.”? ...the possibility remains that carbon That fact must be based on the same emissions are actually having a net cool- ...how about agreeing to drop green- geological, astronomical, chemical, ing effect on world climate. house theory if in any given year, world physical and palaeontological observa- Sure, that possibility is discussed in temperatures fall in the face of rapidly tions, measurement, analysis and the IPCC reports and elsewhere. That’s rising emissions? making of falsifiable predictions that what the error bars in the values for A year’s long enough to disprove are simultaneously unable “to explain forcing are for in diagrams like: things, but all the observational, ice any - repeat any - of the major changes www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_ core and other paleoclimatic evidence in the Earth’s climate over the eons.” 05/fig2.gif isn’t enough to prove it? A decade would So I’m not really sure what he The probability that carbon emis- be a better timebase, to smooth out the means by ‘explain’, if identification and sions (greenhouse gases + ‘black effects of shorter term cycles like the quantification of factors like solar carbon’) have an overall cooling influ- seasons, sunspots and El Nino. Two output, Milankovitch and sunspot ence has to be extremely small. decades would pretty much invalidate cycles, the composition of the atmos- ...total lack of empirical cause and ef- the current set of IPCC projections phere (greenhouse gases and the fect evidence... (break out of the 95% confidence limit). underlying chemical and physical bases ...but it is the very level of competence of of this behaviour), changes to reflectiv- So all the observations fail to suggest a unusual recent warming Robert’s ‘experts’ which I have queried ity or albedo (clouds, ice, forest, desert) twice now, without response. and oceanographic factors don’t count. effect eg: John, the various internet links that How precise and accurate do values www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/jones2004/ have appeared in my responses point to have to be to be ‘explanatory’? If jones2004.html the websites of climatologists at NASA, experimentation is required of ‘true What is left if the factors I’ve the NOAA and of course the IPCC. science’, then wide swathes of as- mentioned previously don’t explain Realclimate.org is moderated by tronomy, geology and biology are not what’s going on? Again, what do you climate scientists. If you had deigned to ‘true science’. The social sciences are in regard as sufficient explanation? type them into your web browser you even more trouble. Unfortunately, for Robert the science is could have found this out. The people In any case, one wonders about his not ‘it’. that run those sites can address the command of the facts. I poisoned the well. That was a issue of their competence and expertise The existence of the Medieval Warm mistake. It’s given you an opportunity far better than me. I think that experts Period as a global phenomenon is to buttress your argument from who have published numerous papers uncertain: incredulity with ad hominems. John, in their field might know a bit more www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1070.htm there’s skepticism and there’s ignoring about their subject than you or me. and: evidence — and you seem to be doing www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/global warming/ the latter, given what you have said in ...the IPCC Summary makes no claim medieval.html. your latest letter. that there is any direct evidence of an The pronouncement that “no subse- actual cause and effect relationship be- Robert, for the umpteenth time... saying tween carbon emissions and warming... quent year has been as warm as 1998 that this will continue does not repre- and there has been no warming at all sent a new prediction! I’m still not sure what constitutes since 2001” is incorrect: ‘direct evidence’ by your definition. Is

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 57 Forum the observational data linked to above erroneous estimations of significance 771. ‘direct evidence’? Do you have a prob- levels. 7. Mann, M., Bradley, R., and Hughes, lem with the probabilistic language the On the subject of temperature M., 1998: Global-Scale Temperature

IPCC Summary is couched in? With preceding CO2 elevation in the past Patterns and Climate Forcing Over the error bars in graphs? debunking a human contribution to the Past Six Centuries. Nature, v. 392, p. 779- Seek the evidence. Challenge the claims. the currently observed climate: Yes, 787. that’s what the ice core data shows. You 8. Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E. et al, 2005: John, I’m trying to do both. Are you? have a warming phase of several Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere The evidence above suggests not. centuries (1.3+/-1 millenia, from the Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Professor Keay doesn’t pull any Mudelsee paper) duration then the Sensitivity to Methodology, Predictor punches rhetorically. Conspiracy-theory atmospheric CO goes up. Network, Target Season and Target style hyperbole is a great attention- 2 The Siegenthaler paper 14 is another Domain. Journal of Climate v. 18:13, p. getting opener. 2308-2339. good one, reporting on the results of The McIntyre/McKitrick paper 6 had EPICA (ice cores from Vostok, Antarc- 9. Jones, P. D., and Mann, M. E., 2004: a number of methodological flaws. One tica providing some 650,000 years of Climate over past millennia. Rev. claim was that the ‘hockey stick’ was an Geophys., 42, RG2002, doi:10.1029/ CO and climate proxy data). The artifact of the convention used to define 2 2003RG000143. problem is that this time, we haven’t the zero baseline in the temperature had a similar multi-century tempera- 10. Some examples: anomaly values. The only way to ture upstroke and both CO and - Jones, P.D., Briffa, K.R. et al, 1998: remove that shape from the curve was 2 temperature are rising. What’s going High-resolution palaeoclimatic records to fudge the principal component on? for the last millennium: interpretation, analysis (a statistical technique applied integration and comparison with General I think that Professor Keay’s to time series data). They failed to Circulation Model control-run tempera- position on some of the exaggerations apply standard selection rules to tures. The Holocene, v. 8, p. 455-471. in the IPCC report and wider media is determine the number of component - Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., and Hughes, sound. They detract from the science. series that should have been retained M.K. 1999: Northern Hemisphere I’ll have to read Professor Carter’s in the analysis. Temperatures During the Past Millen- critique. Two data sets present in the Mann et nium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and It’s unfortunate that the debate has al 7 paper were removed from the Limitations. Geophysical Research become politicised. McKitrick analysis: the entire Interna- Letters, v. 26:6, p. 759-762. - Crowley, T.J. 2000: Causes of Climate tional Tree Ring Data Bank North References/Footnotes American data set and the ‘St Anne’ Change Over the Past 1000 Years. Science, v. 289, p. 270-277. Northern Treeline series, which 1. Hansen, J., Fung, I. et al, 1988: Global removed over 70% of the proxy data climate changes as forecast by Goddard - Briffa, K.R., et al, 2001: Low frequency Institute for Space Studies three- used in the Mann analysis covering the temperature variations from a northern dimensional model. J. Geophys. Res., v. tree-ring density network. Journal of period prior to AD 1600. Much of the 93, p. 9341-9364. doi:10.1029/88JD00231. Geophysical Research, 106: 2929-2941. data censored were key proxy indica- 2. Hansen, J., Lacis, A., Ruedy, R., and tors that added to cooling in the - Esper, J., Cook, E.R. Cook, and Sato, M., 1992: Potential climate impact Schweingruber, F.H., 2002: Low-Fre- fifteenth century. of the Mount Pinatubo eruption. Geo- quency Signals in Long Tree-Ring So a prominent Medieval Warm physical Research Letters, v. 19, p. 215- Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Period (~900-1300AD) appears that 218. Temperature Variability. Science, v. 295, intrudes into the Little Ice Age (~1300- 3. Robock, A., and Mao, J., 1992: Winter p. 2250-2253. ?1800AD). warming from large volcanic eruptions. - Mann, M.E., and Jones, P.D. 2003: This cherry picking has been Geophysical Research Letters, v. 19, p. Global Surface Temperatures Over The mentioned in two relatively recent 2405-2408. Past Two Millennia. Geophysical Re- 8,9 papers . In any case, the overall 4. Robock, A., and Mao, J., 1995: The search Letters, v. 30:15, p. 1820. temperature trend has been independ- volcanic signal in surface temperature DOI:10.1029/2003GL017814. ently replicated several times from records. Journal of Climate, v. 8, p. 1086- - Huang, S. 2004: Merging information different data sets in the peer-reviewed 1103. from different resources for new insights literature 10. Interestingly, some have a 5. Walsh, K., and Pittock, A.B., 1992: into climate change in the past and noticeable Medieval Warm Period, Modeling the effects of the Mt Pinatubo future. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L13205, others don’t. eruption on sea surface temperatures in doi:10.1029/2004GL019781. The ‘pure noise input’ comment first the sq ,hern hemisphere. Australian - Moberg, A., Sonechkin, D.M. et al, 2005: appeared in 2005 11, and subsequent Meteorological and Oceanographic Highly variable Northern Hemisphere correspondence 12,13 demonstrated that Society Bulletin, v. 5, p. 31-35. temperatures reconstructed from low- while there was a tendency to bias in 6. McKitrick, R., and McIntyre, S., 2003: and high-resolution proxy data. Nature, v. the technique used by Mann et al, the Corrections to the Mann et al (1998) 433, p. 613-617. DOI:10.1038/na- ture03265. magnitude was exaggerated by the Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemi- choice of normalisation used by sphere Average Temperature Series. - Oerlemans, J.H., 2005: Extracting a Energy and Environment, v. 14:6, p. 751- McIntyre and McKitrick and their Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records.

Page 58 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 Science, v. 308, p. 675-677. DOI:10.1126/ effect of human activity, the natural phere, and measure the percent science.1107046. greenhouse effect on planet Earth has transmission of the energy through the 11. McIntyre, S., and McKitrick, R., 2005: the fortuitous result that temperatures atmosphere. They would then shine Hockey sticks, principal components, and ° spurious significance. Geophys. Res. Lett., are some 30 C higher than the energy another emitter, tuned to be like 32, L03710, doi:10.1029/2004GL021750. balance for a rocky planet at 1 AU from reflected sun light, and see the absorp- 12. Huybers, P., 2005: Comment on the sun would suggest. The sources for tion pattern of this light. This very “Hockey sticks, principal components, this claim are many and easy to find. I simple experiment has not debunked and spurious significance” by S. McIntyre will give you first the low quality the underlying theory behind atmos- and R. McKitrick. Geophys. Research. Wikipedia reference as a starter pheric heating due to greenhouse Lett., 32, L20705, doi:10.1029/ 2005GL023395. (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ gases. So the mechanisms are observ- 13. Von Storch, H. and Zorita, E., 2005: greenhouse_effect), where the oft able, and understood to a high level of Comment on “Hockey sticks, principal quoted line, “In the absence of the confidence. components, and spurious significance” greenhouse effect, the Earth’s average So the debate is whether adding to by S. McIntyre and R. McKitrick. temperature of 14° C (57° F) would be the process that gives us our 30 degrees Geophys. Research. Lett., 32, L20701, ° ° doi:10.1029/2005GL022753. about -19 C (-2 F)”. Earth would be a of warmth itself will add to the warm- 14. Siegenthaler U. et al. 2005: Stable snow ball in the absence of the natural ing. And if so, by how much. Well, it is Carbon Cycle–Climate Relationship greenhouse effect. a very complex field of study. Trying to During the Late Pleistocene. Science, v. OK, Wikipedia is not a good source. model the Earth is right at the limit of 310, p.1313-1317. So go to the American Geophysical human capability — indeed I would Union and hunt out the paper “Climate argue beyond our immediate capability. Change and Greenhouse Gases” where That itself is not an excuse to termi- you will see the quote “... As a result nate the field of study. That is a reason the average air temperature of the to expand the field of study to make our earth is about 30° C higher than it models more accurate. would be without atmospheric absorp- Again an analogy. Before Hubble, Some other facts tion and reradiation of IR energy” — humans had very limited knowledge of and following this quote are the what the universe looked like. And references. There is also no debate before we sent space probes to the about what causes this natural green- planets, we really had no idea of what Scott Marshall house effect. each planet and moon “looked like”. Again, most of us would have heard These sciences were “immature”. So Turramurra NSW the explanation at high school. Energy was that a justification to terminate from the sun is able to travel relatively the study of planets? Or to terminate easily through the atmosphere to the the study of the various electromag- here has been an active debate Earth’s surface (with some reflection netic sources (X ray, gamma ray, visible in the Skeptic over several issues T back into space). However when the light, infra red) in the universe? To pull regarding greenhouse gases, whether photons strike the Earth, they lose Hubble back to earth? Of course not. It the science is real, whether the threat some of their energy (ie, the distribu- only justified greater expense — and is real, and a general attack on many tion of energies is shifted to lower what a glorious source of wonderment scientific groups, research houses, and energies on average). When this and knowledge that has proven to be. persons in the process. reflected energy travels away from the In a like way, we should not termi- Before readers get too cosy in their Earth back through the atmosphere, nate the study of greenhouse gasses belief that it is all bunkum, I have dug the various “greenhouse” gases are because the science is still immature up a few facts that are, in the main, not somewhat more opaque at the lower and can not answer all our questions — in dispute. The readers can then add energy level. That is, the energy is now certainly the scientific method says if these to the growing debate points. more likely to be absorbed by molecules you cannot answer a question, you go First, greenhouse is not a myth. of water vapour, carbon dioxide, the out and find the answer. Speculate, Let’s get this straight. Three planets in various HFC’s, and other gases. It gets build theories, hypothesise and test. the solar system have varying degrees trapped, and heats up the atmosphere. And yes, models are but a tool. of measurable greenhouse effect. The This is somewhat crudely analogous to The last paragraph of John Gibbs’ obvious one is Venus, where we are all your microwave oven which is tuned to article was attributed to Sir Guy told in primary school (well, except for heat water molecules (and fat mol- Greene, and stated, “A model can be a the current generation, but that is a ecules as innocent bystanders in the useful tool, but only when it is used in debate for another topic) the metal lead process). conjunction with empirically based would melt. Mars has a weak green- It would be very easy for scientists science”. Exactly. But is there the house effect. to debunk this process. They would thought that there is no empirically Now Earth. There is NO serious shine an electromagnetic emitter that based science on this subject? debate amongst scientists about was “tuned” to be like the sun’s light Let’s see. NASA is best known for its whether the Earth has an active through a sample of Earth’s atmos- many planetary and deep space greenhouse effect. If we exclude the

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 59 Forum missions. It also has an active program changes to the resultant atmospheric extends from 0 to 17 km, and includes to study planet Earth. In fact, if we and water currents, volcanic eruptions essentially all life, and all of Earth’s look at the NASA FY09 budget submis- and other one-off cataclysmic events, weather. Then the stratosphere extends sion to Congress, we see NASA spends and the activity of life itself of course. from 17 km to 50 km. And the just under US$1.5B per year on As these events all play out on the thermosphere extends from 50 km to studying Earth. Specifically, Earth’s climate and shorter order 640 km. Wow, 640 km of atmosphere. US$1.198B in FY07 actual, US$1.28B weather patterns, adding greenhouse There is no way even 6 billion humans in FY08 preliminary, US$1.367B in gases is believed to add energy to the can affect that. FY09 proposed, and it goes on. What is atmospheric system (via IR capture) Well, let us take another look at this being studied? In NASA’s own words: thus increase the temperature relative atmosphere. The density of course gets The climate system is dynamic, and to what it would otherwise have been. thinner with height. If we compressed modelling is the only way we can effec- Thus a fall in temperature is entirely all this atmosphere to 1 standard tively integrate the current knowledge consistent — if the fall was say 0.3 temperature and pressure equivalent (1 of the individual components. Through degrees when it should have been 0.5 STP for the engineers out there, ie, the modelling studies we can estimate and degrees. conditions at sea level) the atmosphere project the future state of the climate There are some other salient facts would be only 7.8 km thick. Mt Everest system. However, we don’t have the full that should be considered by all. The is 8.8 km high — so the Earth’s atmos- understanding of the processes that con- greenhouse gases have a certain phere, at 1 STP, does not get anywhere tribute to the climate variability and persistency in the atmosphere. That is, near the top of Mt Everest. This change. The future work will be to elimi- the gases take time to be absorbed and mountain sticks up through the nate model uncertainties through better takenF˜¬<. While the definition of atmosphere using this measure. Earth understanding of the processes. “persistency” is still subject to debate, really has precious little atmosphere. the common definition is the time So what do we have? The green- Right. We observe Earth through the taken to remove 63% of anthropomor- house effect exists and heats up Earth various satellites and other measuring phic gases from the atmosphere, if all by about 30° C. The question is, if we stations maintained by NASA, model human activity was to suddenly cease add more greenhouse gases, will the what we see, and try to predict. And get (“Climate Change and Greenhouse warming effect be increased? The Earth better at this over time. What has Gases”, American Geophysical Union, goes through natural cycles of heating NASA concluded to date — having 1999). For methane, this is 10 years. and cooling. And those who are doing spent US$1.5B per year on the subject? Nitrogen dioxide is about 100 years. the looking and observing as well as Well, James Hansen, director of the The various CFCs are in the range 50 modelling (including NASA) are Goddard Institute of Space Sciences to 100 years. Carbon dioxide has a warning of the dangers ahead. If we (Goddard is a NASA research centre) in more complex equation, as there are are lax and do nothing, it will take June 2008 before the US Congress, many short term (sea surface mixing) literally thousands of years for the stated “the world has long passed the and long term (carbonation of minerals) Earth to absorb the excess carbon dangerous level” for greenhouse gases. forces at play. The best guess is that “a (assuming we do not add ANY more ...). John Gibbs wants a prediction made by substantial fraction” of the carbon For a highly informative and easy to greenhouse theory. OK — Hansen and dioxide will remain in the atmosphere read account of one scientist doing others 20 years ago predicted the for decades to centuries, and about 15- ground level field work, I refer you to melting of the Arctic ice sheet — and it 30% will remain for thousands of years the excellent book Thin Ice by Mark now looks like this will occur in the (again, AGU 1999). Bowen, himself a PhD in Physics from next 5 to 10 years. Let us ponder on that for a while. MIT, tracking the life and work of There have also been comments The greenhouse skeptics had better be Lonnie Thompson, who is highly made by many along the lines of “well if very sure of their position, because if respected and has been drilling ice greenhouse gases are supposed to they are wrong and the temperatures cores in the world’s glaciers for 30 warm the planet, then why is the do in fact rise, then up to 30% of the years. This book also includes detailed planet currently cooling?”. Well, no-one human induced carbon dioxide will still analysis of the work of other field says an increase greenhouse gases will be in the atmosphere for thousands of scientists around the globe (ie, not lead to a never-ending increase in years - even if every human was computer modelling), and links ice core, temperature. What is claimed is that instantly removed from the system. sea bed and other evidence. Page 289 increasing greenhouse gases will make That is quite a gamble to take with an concludes, after an exhaustive look at the planet warmer than it would admitted “immature” science. the works of several contemporary otherwise be. Now, many people make comments scientists, “the changes (Thompson) is There are many factors impacting on like “there is plenty of air up there — seeing in high tropical ice are a harbin- the climatic patterns — orbital move- humans can not possibly change it ger of massive global warming to ments, atmospheric gas concentrations, significantly”. Well, let us look at this come”. sun cycles (ie, energy received by claim. The Earth’s atmosphere extends Do we take the risk? Earth), movement of continents and for some distance. The troposphere

Page 60 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 Forum On Matters Concerning God

Rob’s Premise 1 was: Everything this possibility as it “proves” that The logic of belief has a cause or perhaps many causes. God exists (through linking God’s Kevin states that the revised existence to the existence of the Premise 1 overcomes Rob’s objection universe). However, it is possible to Gordon Burbidge to the first cause argument (that if eliminate Scenario C by redefining everything has a cause, so too does God to have no end. Eastwood NSW God) as he contends that: God does The fifth point of the revised not have a cause as He has no argument then becomes: ormally I would avoid entering beginning. With Kevin’s modifica- 5. That first cause is God (who has no Na discussion on the existence or tion, the revised argument becomes: beginning, no cause and no end), who otherwise of a God or Gods, as I 1. Everything that has a beginning has therefore exists. contend that it is not possible to a cause. The universe has a beginning. With the elimination of Scenario prove either case. I agree with Therefore the universe has a cause. C, the revised argument (with the Kevin Rogers (Winter 2008, 28:2) 2. Nothing is its own cause. updated point 5) needs only to be that that debate is at most about 3. Causal chains cannot go on forever. tested under Scenario A and Sce- nario B, both of which remain plausibility, not proof. From what I 4. So there has to be a first cause. have observed, it seems that in possible with the updated point 5. these types of discussions those 5. That first cause is God (who has no Under Scenario B (in which God advocating that God(s) exist have beginning and hence no cause), who exists) the revised argument pro- an advantage. It is generally ac- therefore exists. duces a result which is consistent cepted that it is not possible to prove As far as I am aware there are with that scenario. Under Scenario A that something does not exist, so an only three ways in which something (in which God has never existed) the honourable draw is the best that can have no beginning: revised argument “proves” that God can be hoped for by those advocat- A. It has never existed and will never exists. This is not logically consist- ing that God(s) do not exist. On the exist. ent with the scenario and unless it other hand, those advocating that B. It has always existed and will always can be suitably modified, the revised God(s) do exist have the advantage exist. argument will fail its test of robust- ness. The approach adopted for that they can redefine the charac- C. It always existed until some point in Scenario C (redefining God’s charac- teristics of their God(s) to address time when it ceased (or will cease) to teristics) does not work as, to elimi- at least some of the objections to exist. [This scenario is like Scenario B nate Scenario A, it is necessary to their position. but with the “something” having an end redefine God to exist. Once this is Despite my reservations, I was date]. sufficiently intrigued by Kevin’s done, the revised argument becomes letter, particularly the section on the To assess how robust the revised superfluous as God has been defined Kalam Cosmological Argument, to argument is, it should be tested to exist and no proof of that is then enter the fray. Kevin restates under each of these scenarios. To be required. As I can see no way around Premise 1 of the first cause argu- robust it must produce sensible this dilemma I can only conclude ment described by Rob Hardy results under all three. that the revised argument is not (Autumn 2008, 28:1) as: Under Scenario C, God could have robust. Everything that has a beginning has a brought the universe into being and However, as Kevin mentioned cause. subsequently ceased to exist. Thus it there are other formulations of the is possible that the universe exists The universe has a beginning. first cause argument. While it is but God does not. The revised possible that one of these is more Therefore the universe has a cause. argument does not accommodate robust than the formulation consid-

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 61 Forum ered here and that considered by In the section on Argument thesis. The main point that we both Rob Hardy, I doubt whether this is Applicability, Kevin mentions that made was that Jon falsely assumed the case. To be more robust, another various arguments for the existence God was arbitrary and capricious. formulation would have to achieve of God have been around since or The Christian has just as much two things: before the time of Plato, and infers reason as an atheist to believe that 1. Define one or more Gods to be the that their still being seriously nature will act consistently. I added only entities which require no cause. considered today reflects their that the origins of modern science 2. Accommodate the possibility that strength. This is not the only possi- were deeply influenced by Chris- having no cause equates to not existing, ble explanation for their longevity. tians and that many of the major without (even indirectly) defining those As pointed out by Brian Marsh scientists have been Christians. Our Gods to exist. (Winter 2008, 28:2) there is no basis letters evoked responses from Paul for the passion with which some Barclay and Brian Hewson in the I doubt that any formulation can people hold religious beliefs (which I Autumn edition (28:1) and from Jon achieve the second requirement. consider to include atheism). To Jeremy in the Winter edition (28:2). I must admit that I was confused those people, their beliefs are A number of issues have been by the first part of Kevin’s discus- probably “articles of faith” which are raised and space prevents me from sion under the Teleological Argu- unlikely to be altered by logical addressing them all. However, both ment, but this may be due to me not arguments. As long as this is the Paul Barclay and Jon Jeremy having read The God Delusion. The case, resolving differences in beliefs claimed that early scientists main- discussion on the improbability of is likely to be impossible. Thus the tained “a facade of conventional key fundamental parameters of the longevity of the “Is there a God” religious belief” to avoid persecution. universe having the values they do debate may reflect human stubborn- In other words, Paul and Jon im- was interesting. One of the difficul- ness more than the strengths of the plied that the early scientists were ties I have with invoking divine arguments mounted by either side. really closet atheists. Neither Paul intervention as an explanation for As a final comment, I have found nor Jon provided any evidence for improbable events is setting the writing this letter to be challenging their assertion. Being a good skeptic, level of improbability at which it and enlightening as, inter alia, it I did some research. should be invoked. has required me to refine my I once participated in an amateur thoughts and to examine possibili- Early Scientists archery competition despite having ties I had previously not considered. never used modern archery equip- There were many scientists who Thank you to Rob, Kevin, Brian and called themselves Christians. Some ment before. I did much better than the Skeptic for initiating and inform- anyone would have expected as I prominent examples born prior to ing that process. th managed to score one bull’s-eye. I the 20 Century were Roger Bacon consider that to be nothing more (1214-1294), Nicolaus Copernicus than a fluke and I doubt that anyone (1473-1543), Tycho Brahe (1546- would attribute it to divine interven- Belief and science 1601), Francis Bacon (1561-1626), tion. If blind chance is the most Galileo Galilei (1564-1642), acceptable explanation in this case, Johannes Kepler (1571-1630), Rene why would it not also be the most Descartes (1597-1650), Blaise Pascal acceptable explanation for other Kevin Rogers (1623-1662), Robert Boyle (1627- events having different probabili- Modbury SA 1691), Robert Hooke (1635-1703), ties? Isaac Newton (1643-1727), Gottfried At the end of that section Kevin Leibniz (1646–1716), William n the Spring edition of the Skeptic states, in relation to the values of Herschel (1738-1822) and his as- (27:3) Jon Jeremy argued that a key parameters of the universe, I tronomer son John Herschel (1792- Christian cannot practice science that: It looks as though it is de- 1871), Leonhard Euler (1707-1783), and be consistent with his/her signed and there is no Darwinian John Dalton (1766 –1844), Johann beliefs. According to Jon, all scien- explanation. If “Darwinian explana- Gauss (1777–1855), Louis Cauchy tists should be atheists. His argu- tion” refers to Darwin’s theory of (1789–1857), Michael Faraday ment was basically that since the evolution, then I am not surprised (1791–1867), Charles Babbage Christian God operates the universe that there is no Darwinian explana- (1791-1871), Gregor Johann Mendel in accordance with his will, therefore tion. Darwin’s theory is about the (1822–1884), James Joule (1818- the universe would be unpredictable evolution of species not about the 1889), Louis Pasteur (1822-1895), and not amenable to scientific values of fundamental parameters Joseph Lister (1827-1912), Lord investigation. necessary to allow a universe, some Kelvin (William Thompson 1824– In the Summer edition (27:3) Bill parts of which are capable of sup- 1907), James Clerk Maxwell (1831– Moriarty and I challenged this porting life, to develop. 1879), Lord Rayleigh (1842-1919),

Page 62 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 J.J. Thomson (1856-1940), Max Wisdom and Goodness of God, as There must be an unchanging Planck (1858-1947) and Arthur manifested in the Creation. rational ground in which the logical, Compton (1892–1962). Maxwell’s faith is well docu- orderly nature of the universe is There were many more that I mented. He attended both Presbyte- rooted. have not listed. Was their faith real, rian and Episcopalian services as a or were they faking it? If you read child and later underwent an Evan- their biographies you will find that gelical conversion in April 1853. many of them were quite overt in Compton was a deacon in the their profession of faith and demon- Baptist Church. Joseph Lister was The village taxonomist strated their faith by what they did. originally a Quaker and subse- Roger Bacon was a Franciscan quently joined the Scottish Episco- Friar and Copernicus was a Roman pal Church. J.J. Thomson put the Michael O’Rourke Catholic cleric. Mendel was an Aug- text “The fear of the Lord is the ustinian priest who became abbot of beginning of wisdom” over the Braddon ACT his abbey. Francis Bacon wrote in Cavendish Laboratory in England. The Essays: Of Atheism that “a little Max Planck was a devoted and he article “A Fundamental philosophy inclineth man’s mind to persistent adherent of Christianity TQuestion” by John Stear (28:2 atheism; but depth in philosophy from early life to death. The God in p.34) was in equal parts tedious and bringeth men’s minds about to which Planck believed was “an irritating. Mr Stear, who from his religion.” Galileo, despite his alterca- almighty, all-knowing, benevolent photo must be at least 40, affects — tions with the Roman Catholic but unintelligible God that perme- after some 45 years (!) — to find it Church was a devoted Roman ated everything, including physical hard to distinguish between Modern Catholic all of his life. Pascal wrote laws.” Planck objected to atheism. Christianity, Mainstream Christian- the Pensées (Thoughts), which was I could go on and on, but hope- ity, Pragmatic Christianity, Progres- intended to be a coherent examina- fully you will get the point. This sive Christianity and several other tion and defense of the Christian information is very accessible. The varieties, Creation Ministries faith. The original title was Apologie truth is out there. Jon and Paul International, the Episcopalian de la religion Chrétienne (Defense of claim that they were faking it. Well Bishop John Spong; the Covenant the Christian Religion). then, which of the above were faking Presbyterian Church; the Virgin Boyle, as a director of the East it? Where is your evidence? Mary speaking for Herself; and Pope India Company, spent large sums in Benedict perhaps not speaking for promoting the spread of Christianity Conclusion Her ... One’s head spins, realising in the East, contributing liberally to Some contributors to the Skeptic how well read Mr Stear seems to be. missionary societies, and to the give the impression that atheists are Now we are all familiar with the expenses of translating the Bible or the sole custodians of science and term “village atheist”. I would never portions of it into various languages. rational thinking. This has as much apply this to John, who is after all Isaac Newton, although unorthodox credibility as the Burmese govern- the esteemed webmeister of No in some of his beliefs, was a member ment rebadging foreign aid to Answers in Genesis. I would rather of the Anglican Church and was pretend that it came from them. The call him, if his article be sufficient involved in the distribution of Bibles modern scientific movement cer- evidence, “the village taxonomist”. to the poor and the construction of tainly did not arise from atheism. It He seeks, as it appears to me, only new churches. He wrote more on the had its roots in the Christian West. to sneer at Christianity; he offers us Bible and theological topics than he Many of the early scientists were a duck and observes that it has a wrote on science. Gottfried Leibniz Christians and their words and bill. “Can a duck be a kind of platy- was the co-inventor of calculus with deeds indicate that their profession pus?” Or, noticing the long necks, he Isaac Newton. He was also a theolo- was genuine. asks, “Can a crane be a kind of gian and philosopher and was Jon claimed that theism is incom- giraffe?” responsible for developing a form of patible with the scientific method. Mr Editor, just as the famous the cosmological argument for the On the contrary, theism provides the blogger Andrew Bolt calls himself an existence of God based on the rational source for the laws of Anglican agnostic, I call myself a Principle of Sufficient Reason. nature. To quote Paul Davies: Catholic atheist. May I therefore, Michael Faraday was an elder Science is based on the assumption through you, propose an answer to and regular preacher in the that the universe is thoroughly one of Mr Stear’s Catholic ques- Sandemanian (foot washers) rational and logical at all levels. tions? (Dear me, I almost wrote: “one Church. Babbage originated the Atheists claim that the laws of of his sneers”.) “Can this [the Catho- concept of the programmable compu- nature exist reasonlessly and the lic Church’s formal endorsement of ter. In 1837 he published his Ninth universe is ultimately absurd. As a Evolution as an accepted theory of Bridgewater Treatise, On the Power, scientist, I find this hard to accept. science] mean that the Catholic

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 63 Forum hierarchy . . . didn’t then or doesn’t ing that it lies outside the ambit of our The Editor responds now believe the Bible to be the published aims. inerrant word of God?” Well, John: wouldn’t the answer be to read what We would become just another player y first thought on reading the Catholic hierarchy have actually on the stage of sectarian disputation, MKent’s letter, was to marvel at written about the Bible? To draw the indulging in tendentious, and ulti- what an eloquent cove I was in those moral plainly: we Skeptics have a mately futile, theological speculation. halcyon days of yore. Now I am often duty to be respectful to those we We would waste our energies in chas- reduced to coining cliched platitudes disagree with and to address their ing the will-o-the-wisp of seeking an- like the foregoing. views in an open and honest spirit. swers to the unanswerable. We would That aside, there has been no Sneering is an embarrassment. distract our attention from that which change in policy, rather it is that the we do well — testing the testable. widening of our themes is an evolu- Which raises the question — what tionary change that reflects the has changed, why has it changed, diversity of interests of our increas- What’s the policy? and is it time that the Skeptics ing numbers of readers. formally acknowledged a fundamen- With a magazine as large, and as tal shift in this previous position? long-established, as the Skeptic, it Kent Blackmore Any reader of the Skeptic over the was always going to be difficult to years will have noted a significant confine the topics to a narrow band Hornsby NSW increase in the number of of specific paranormal or pseudo- articles and book reviews which scientific issues. For example, there s a interested skeptic and appear to be purely anti-religion, is only a finite number of ways one Asubscriber to the Skeptic since rather than enquiring into testable can say “astrology is bunk”, before its inception in the days of the matters emerging from religious risking repeating oneself. James Randi water divining tests, it faith. The most recent issue is For that reason, over time, our was always my understanding that heavily weighted towards religious range of issues has expanded to it was not within the scope of the debate. encompass matters that, while they Skeptics to investigate or take a In addition, matters of non- might not specifically fall within our public position about religious faith, paranormal concern, such as confi- particular aims, could well become since it is inherently untestable. dence scams, medicine and better understood by exposure to Specific and testable claims made in alternative practices have gradually critical thinking. the name of religion, such as Crea- become commonplace matters My policy, as Editor, has been a tionism, were, of course, open to addressed in the Skeptic. fairly simple one. Encourage as scrutiny. As a matter of disclosure, I have many opinions about as wide a While this informal policy is not always happily declared myself to be range of issues as possible, have a mentioned in the published Aims of a Christian Skeptic (...sits back and fair mix of serious and light-hearted the Skeptics, our glorious Editor awaits the expected cries of “impos- items and, above all, publish items devoted a lengthy essay to the sible” and criticisms unrelated to the that (in my judgement) will be of matter around 1990, which can be thrust of this letter), but it concerns interest to at least some of our read in full at www.skeptics.com.au/ me not in the least that the Austral- readers. journal/2ndcoming/religion.pdf. To ian Skeptics is largely populated by The feedback I get suggests that quote selectively: anti-theists. formula works pretty well; not every Debate on religion is just fine by reader enjoys every article, but most Among the things we do not do are the me, but surely there are a million enjoy the bulk of them. Our new investigation of shonky car dealers, eco- other forums for theological debate Editor, as is her right, might well nomic predictions, ordinary (non-par- and atheistic diatribes. There are have a different policy, but I don’t anormal) confidence tricksters, political not, however, a million forums which expect it will be very different. promises, advertising hyperbole or any serve the purpose for which the Skeptics are as diverse a group of of the myriad other dubious claims, or Skeptic supposedly exists. I am individuals as you are likely to find claimants, at large in the community. suggesting that, since a new Editor anywhere; we are not all committed While these areas are undoubtedly wor- is shortly to take over the reins, to the same ideology or world view. thy of investigation, there are other or- perhaps some renewed focus could What each of us finds interesting ganisations which deal with such be placed on the true role of the will not always be congruent with matters, and no doubt they do it a great Skeptic magazine, and that an that of everyone else. We are ques- deal better than we could. editorial policy be published, so that tioners, not dogmatists and about As a general statement of purpose, we our focus does not become blurred or the only policy (or philosophy) that have always eschewed the pleasure of diluted. we would all agree on, would be, investigating religion per se, consider- “Don’t Believe, Think”.

Page 64 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 Letters

Support for fluoridation lence in Stranraer children has in- dated versus non-fluoridated drink- creased since fluoridation ceased to al- ing water unreliable (NHMRC, 1999). most parity with children in the Plaque contains actively metabo- non-fluoridated area. This study shows lising microbes of various species; all Ian Edwards that there is still a benefit to be gained are obligate fermenters and produce Cronulla NSW in terms of lower caries rates by imple- acid as a by-product of this form of menting water fluoridation despite the metabolism. It has been established s far as I can make out, the general decline in dental caries. that fluoride delivered in saliva Apoint Nick Ware (28:2) is trying penetrates and becomes concen- to make about fluoridation is in the trated in plaque (Petersson et al, 2002). sentence, “Yes, there are benefits but It could thus be argued that, to they are not as important as best allow repair of the tooth surface practice in dental hygiene” and the How should I take my fluoride? demineralised at the base of a latter includes brushing with fluo- plaque by continuous microbial acid ride toothpaste then rinsing with a production, a prolonged supply of fluoride mouthwash. Unfortunately Pete Griffith fluoride would be preferable over occasional exposure in toothpaste or this best practice is not easily Canberra, ACT achieved. mouthwashes. As Nick Ware is happy to accept A key enzyme (enolase) involved the data of Attwood and Blinkhorn t is reassuring to learn from Nick in both fermentation processes and published in The Lancet, some more Ware (28:2, p30) that fluoride the uptake of glucose by microbes I present in plaque is inhibited by of their findings may be of interest. complexes with the very outer fluoride, though van der Hoeven and In the Scottish town of Annan, surface of tooth enamel and renders Franken (1984) claim the plaque which has never had fluoride added it much more resistant to acid bacteria rapidly develop resistance to the water supply, caries preva- attack. I was once told by a dentist to it. The inhibition of microbes by lence fell significantly during the that the citric acid in grapefruit fluoride — the organic hypothesis — five year period, with little change in juice demineralises and softens the is thus not regarded as the principal the cost of dental treatment. surface of the tooth enamel and so mechanism for fluoride’s ability to In Stranraer, after the with- brushing one’s teeth soon after protect from tooth decay. drawal of water fluoridation, during eating grapefruit damages the In support of this argument Nick the same period there was a 115% enamel surface: after an hour or so, Ware cites work by Germaine and increase in the mean cost of restora- the enamel is rehardened by miner- Tellefson (1981). These workers tive dental work due to caries. als in the saliva. exposed S. mutans in free and dilute The same authors later published It is not clear from Nick Ware’s suspension to fluoride in the absence further data from their study in the article whether continuous exposure and presence of 50% saliva and International Dental Journal, and of teeth to fluoride present in saliva showed the latter neutralised the conclude: as a result of its consumption in inhibitory effect of fluoride on these drinking water is preferable to The comparison confirms a trend to microbes. The effect appeared to be periodic (and variable) exposure lower caries levels in Annan children due to action of the saliva on the from toothpaste or mouthwash in line with the general trend in caries bacteria and not to any ability to containing fluoride. The multitude of prevalence in much of western Europe. complex fluoride. confounding factors renders the However, despite the almost universal Saliva contains high molecular conclusions of most trials of fluori- use of fluoride toothpaste, caries preva- materials such as lysozyme, lactoper-

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 65 Letters oxidase, antibodies and mucins all of Logic problem that a nuclear winter would sterilise which inhibit microbes. None of these the planet of high energy consump- penetrate the polysaccharide com- tion organisms — so the conclusion plexes present in plaque which is may be true in certain circum- deliberately produced by S. mutans David Brookman stances, with an external test of to protect itself from these agents. Salamander Bay NSW validity. Moreover the concentration of the microbes in plaque is orders of erry McMullen is quite correct magnitude higher than that in the Tin his critique of my statement suspensions used by Germaine and regarding the theory of mind if one Drug confusion Tellefson. is able to apply a test of correctness Thus although their in vitro external to the deductive statement. experiments demonstrate that saliva However: Bill Loveday reduces the effect of fluoride on The Mind Exists — statement A. dilute suspensions of S. mutans West End QLD Mental illness occurs — statement B. unprotected by the plaque matrix, this probably has little relevance as Proposal: If not A then not B. ust a minor point in Sydney to what fluoride might be doing to This does not imply that: If A then JBockner’s letter (28:2, p61) — this organism in vivo in the micro- B, because there is no association Naloxone is not naltrexone. These environment of a plaque. between mind and mental illness — are different drugs. Since the levels of fluoride added they are not part of the same logical Naloxone as a single preparation, to drinking water do not have set. is commonly known by the trade adverse effects on the body If we were dealing with a set such name Narcan in Australia. Further- (NHMRC, 1999) and provide a more as dogs, or cats, or four legged more, Naloxone is currently being sustained level of fluoride in the mammals there is a commonality of used in Australia in opioid substitu- mouth than erratic application from definition that allows logical group- tion treatment in combination in toothpaste and mouthwashes I am ing. with the drug burprenorphine, in happy to go along with fluoride in ‘The Mind’ belongs in the class of the preparation known as Suboxone. my drinking water. Moreover, since philosophical and psychological This drug has been in common use tea leaves contain fluoride (Wei et al, theory. We assume that all human for the last eight years in Australia, 1989), I top up my intake from time beings have this, and it is a behav- and longer than in Europe. to time with the odd cup of tea. ioural concept which we demon- Naltrexone is a structurally strate from about the age of 4 or 5 similar opioid antagonist with a References years of age (see any book on devel- longer duration of action. Of interest Germaine, G.R. and Tellefson, L.M.: opmental psychology). to those Skeptics in the drug de- Effect of Human Saliva on the Fluoride It is demonstrated by a child pendence fields, Naltrexone treat- Sensitivity of Glucose uptake by being able to express what (s)he ment for drug dependence is Streptococcus mutans. Infection and thinks another individual will feel if currently the source of some contro- Immunity 34:871-9 (1981). something is done to them. This versy in Australia. A form of un- NHMRC: Review of Water Fluorida- differs from describing how someone tested treatment was championed by tion and Fluoride Intake from Discre- will react if something is done to the former Federal Health Minister tionary Fluoride Supplements. them. and is used by some evangelical Melbourne, 1999. ‘Mental illness’ is an empirical medical practitioners via use of a derivation of medical practice. It is loophole in the PBS. Petersson, L.G., I. Arvidsson, I., Lynch, based on observation of behaviour, As with many new treatments E. et al, Fluoride Concentrations in and reported dysfunction by the initial claims heralded Naltrexone Saliva and Dental Plaque in Young affected individual. The differences as a ‘silver bullet’ for the treatment Children after Intake of Fluoridated may be emotional disturbance, of drug dependence. Sadly, there Milk. Caries Res. 36:40-43 (2002) perceptual disturbance, logical have been some deaths attributed to van der Hoeven J.S. and Franken disturbance etc. the treatment, although evidence is H.C.M.: Effect of Fluoride on Growth To use an extension of Terry’s inconclusive at this time. However, and Acid Production by Streptococcus example. There are animals classed the scientific community in addic- mutans in Dental Plaque. Infection and as dogs. The sun shines. Therefore if tion treatment has been critical of Immunity 45:356-9 (1984). the sun is not shining dogs do not these treatments being implemented Wei SHY, Hattab IN, Mellberg JR. exist. Clearly a cosmologist will be without appropriately controlled Concentration of Fluoride and Selected able to assure us that if there was no trials and a peer review of the other Elements in Teas. Nutrition sun, there would be no earth and results. 5:237-40 (1989). hence no dogs, or a climatologist

Page 66 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 Depression in animals sit over the kitten, to protect it from While people may love their pet the hailstorm. animals, and for some people com- This shows a number of “human” panion animals are an absolute qualities. First, compassion for necessity, we cannot know if that Scott Marshall another species (something more emotional attachment is recipro- Turramurra NSW than a programmed Darwinian cated, or if the animal is substitut- Survival of Self). Second, realisation ing human presence for a social role that the kitten was in danger (and in an evolved structure (ie, the s noted by Gary Goldberg in the hence an understanding of the animal is genetically programmed to Skeptic (28:2), to those who A concept of pain within another form social structures and imprints observe nature, emotions in animals animal). And third, a willingness to on the human). is a given. Scientists may have suffer personal pain for the sake of Why should this claim of animal trouble forcing or observing emo- another. psychiatric illness suddenly appear? tions from laboratory enclosed While I was not there to witness Could it be related to the profit- animals, but when you spend the the event, you could surmise a ability of pharmaceutical companies time to observe animals in their communication from the kitten to marketing SSRI and similar antide- natural, or near natural, surround- the puppy (would this entail some pressants? If the various claimants ings, evidence is abundant. All of us common form of oral communication wish to test the hypothesis of animal who have owned animals have at the base level — ie the oral psychiatric illness, how about some witnessed events that are far more expression of pain has common tonal decent epidemiological studies? than unemotional responses. features amongst several higher N of 1 trials could be used on I have a neighbour on a farm who owns a number of horses. And like order species?). individual animals, or after defining all farm animal owners, eventually What more admirable human criteria for the ‘diagnosis’ of ‘depres- the animals die and must be buried. qualities do you want from an sion’ a double blinded crossover After the death of one of her horses, animal? And of course, how many study. Without such studies this talk she organised for a local to dig a hole humans, in the same situation, about animal mental illness merely for the body and bury the horse. would stay cosily under shelter? trivialises a serious human disease. What followed was extraordinary. One by one, in turn, the other horses on the farm walked slowly down to Depression where the horse had been buried, Odd bedfellows spent a few minutes at the grave site, and then moved on to make way for the next horse. They knew exactly what had happened, and David Brookman John Gibbs that their friend had now died. They Salamander Bay NSW Gold Coast QLD were giving their last respects to a friend. n my letter regarding ‘greenhouse’ And I have had personal experi- hile it is probably fruitless I theory (27:4) I quoted Alexander ence of a dog and cat. When I bought I must respond to the distortion Cockburn in the US, writing in The an Old English Sheep Dog pup, I W of my letter regarding animal Nation magazine about the so-called wanted to have a cat as well. I had ‘depression’. Depression is a human consensus of opinion on the matter. to buy them both at the same time, illness derived empirically from Cockburn commented that, when they were young, so that they reports of emotional disturbance by whereas there was undoubtedly a would not get jealous (oops — is that an affected individual as well as consensus among climate computer a human emotion?) and so they from observed behaviour. modellers, this was not necessarily would bond. Soon after I bought the pets about Animals are incapable of report- the case among most real climate 10 years ago, Sydney had a fierce ing their own emotional disturbance, scientists — people qualified in hail storm. Luckily where I live it if indeed animals have emotions, atmospheric physics, climatology was “bad” but not “destructive”. The which social animals probably do, and meteorology and that kitten had wandered out into the but which we are incapable of “Geologists are particularly scepti- back yard as the storm was building, comprehending. We can anthropo- cal”. and found herself stuck on the lawn morphise and project our own Imagine my dismay therefore, in the hail storm. I was not home at emotions onto animals based on when I received an email early this the time, but my neighbours saw the labelling their behaviour as similar year from the Australian National sheep dog — itself only a few months to our own when we have a particu- University, informing me that old — walk down into the hail, and lar emotional disturbance. henceforth the ANU’s Geology

the Skeptic, Spring 2008 - Page 67 Letters department would be known as 2. Despite the personal denigration of Reduction required ‘Earth Sciences’. Am I alone in experienced urologists who dare to pub- thinking that the scepticism appar- lish clinical evidence rather than invec- ently evident amongst US geologists tive, narrative and cases I will continue will not obtain amongst those in our to practice evidence based medicine. Michael Beaudoin national capital? There remains no study that is free of Randwick NSW It gets worse: the Brisbane bias due to religious affiliation (which Courier Mail reported on July 31 affects sexual behaviour) of subjects re- enjoyed Michael Wolloghan’s last that at the University of cruited. Iarticle (28:2) on the recent trou- Queensland, the schools of Earth 3. Despite the claims of benignity I will bles of the church of Scientology, but Science, Geography, Planning and continue to inform my patients that cir- feel I must point out an error of Environment Management, Math- cumcision like all procedures carries a some 6 orders of magnitude. Michael ematics and Physics are to be risk of mortality and morbidity and that states that Scientologists believe integrated into the one new Science they must balance this against the pos- that “75 trillion years ago there was Faculty. sibility of the risk of balanitis, and phi- an evil galactic overlord named Apparently this is because UQ mosis. Xenu”. ”...seeks to meet a student and At the risk of being labelled a research market increasingly “Young Universe Skeptic” I am sure focused on sustainability and cli- that even Scientologists believe the mate change.” Universe is no more than 15 billion Geography and Mathematics in The ungodly years old, and they actually state the same faculty? Geography is a that Xenu’s evil actions were perpe- science now? Am I going mad or is it trated on the Earth only 75 million the rest of the world (or just particu- Gary Goldberg years ago: lar sections of academia with a Once a young Skeptic named special agenda)? Silver Spring, MD, USA Wolloghan

osh (oops!), Kevin McDonald Got befuddled in matters Scientologan. Gdoes go on about God, doesn’t Was it 75 million he? (28:2) Unkind cuts He, and other readers, might be .... or 75 trillion? interested to know that avowed (but Who cares! It’s all utter Codswallogan! not on a Bible) atheists Khrushchev David Brookman and Brezhnev occasionally made Editor’s Note references to God. In 1979 the latter Salamander Bay NSW blushing Editor confesses that said “God will not forgive us if we the fault was all his. A computer fail” with reference to avoiding A glitch intruded while I was laying note that the editor has closed nuclear war. out Michael’s article, requiring me to Icorrespondence on this issue but Khrushchev dismissed his refer- rewrite the offending sentence. For having been subjected to a distortion ences as “habit” but it should be some unaccountable reason I used of my original letter I feel that I noted that he was 23 in 1917 and the word ‘trillion’ in place of his must reply. Brezhnev was only 11, allowing ‘million’ — I might have been think- 1. Despite the claims made by Brian more time for religious indoctrina- ing about my bank balance at the Morris I will continue to tell my circum- tion. cised patients to wear condoms when en- time. I’m afraid that replacing gaging in intercourse with casual Wolloghan with Williams will really partners because their being circum- mess up your scansion. cised will not protect them.

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Page 68 - the Skeptic, Spring 2008 Notice Australian Skeptics National Convention 2008 Adelaide

The 2008 Australian Skeptics National Convention is being held on Saturday 11th October and Sunday 12th October 2008 at the following times:

Saturday: 9.00 a.m. to 5.00 p.m. Sunday: 10.00 a.m. to 4.15 p.m. Lunch 12.30 p.m. to 1.30 p.m. on both days.

Cost of Admission The cost of attendance at the Conference is as follows: - Attendance on both Saturday and Sunday - $110.00. Attendance on one day, either Saturday or Sunday $70.00 Attendance to any half-day $35.00 Children under 12 free when accompanied by paying adult. Lunch, Morning and Afternoon teas are included in admission cost.

Location Norwood Town hall 175 The Parade, NORWOOD, 5067,

Presentations Professor Barry Brook – Science Challenges the Skeptics on Climate Change: Dr Rob Morrison and Dr Deane Hutton - Earth Air, Fire and Water; the Elements of Energy. Richard Saunders – Mystery Investigators Debra Panizzon - Engaging Students in Science Education: A role for all in ‘stemming the tide’ Kylie Sturgess - On Sex, Smarts and Where Are The SkepGrrls At: An Investigation into Gender Differences and Belief In Weird Things: Loretta Marron - Jelly Beans and Other Drugs: Margaret Kittson – Brain Gym: A Cautionary Tale: Ian Plimer - Human-Induced Climate Change: A Load Of Hot Air: Glen Smith – We are all Human: Perception

More details in the insert included in this issue.

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