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Scotland Mysteries | Herbs Are Drugs | The Wars | Psi Replication Failure | Morality Innate?

the Magazine for and Reason Vol. 37 No. 2 | March/April 2013

ON INVISIBLE BEINGS

Clever Hans’s Successors

Testing Indian

Believers’ Cognitive Dissonance

CSICon Nashville Highlights

Published by the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry March April 13 *_SI new design masters 1/31/13 9:52 AM Page 2

AT THE CEN TERFOR IN QUIRY –TRANSNATIONAL

Ronald A. Lindsay, President and CEO Massimo Polidoro, Research Fellow Bar ry Karr, Ex ec u tive Di rect or , Research Fellow , Senior Research Fellow , Research Fellow www.csicop.org

James E. Al cock*, psy chol o gist, York Univ., Tor on to Thom as Gi lov ich, psy chol o gist, Cor nell Univ. Robert L. Park,professor of physics, Univ. of Maryland Mar cia An gell, MD, former ed itor-in-chief, David H. Gorski, cancer surgeon and re searcher at Jay M. Pasachoff, Field Memorial Professor of New Eng land Jour nal of Med i cine Barbara Ann Kar manos Cancer Institute and chief Astronomy and director of the Hopkins Kimball Atwood IV, MD, physician; author; of breast surgery section, Wayne State University Observatory, Williams College Newton, MA School of Medicine. John Pau los, math e ma ti cian, Tem ple Univ. Steph en Bar rett, MD, psy chi a trist; au thor; con sum er Wendy M. Grossman, writer; founder and first editor, Clifford A. Pickover, scientist, au thor, editor, ad vo cate, Al len town, PA The Skeptic magazine (UK) IBM T.J. Watson Re search Center. Willem Betz,MD, professor of medicine, Univ. of Brussels Sus an Haack, Coop er Sen ior Schol ar in Arts and Massimo Pigliucci, professor of philosophy, Ir ving Bie der man, psychol o gist, Univ. of Sci en ces, professor of phi los o phy and professor City Univ. of –Lehman College South ern CA of Law, Univ. of Mi ami Stev en Pink er, cog nitive sci en tist, Harvard Univ. Sandra Blakeslee, science writer; author; New York *, MD, family physician; investigator, Philip Plait, astronomer; lecturer; writer Times science correspondent Puyallup, WA Mas si mo Pol id oro, sci ence writer; au thor; ex ec u tive Sus an Black more, vis it ing lec tur er, Univ. of the West C.E.M. Han sel, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Wales di rect or of CI CAP, It a ly of Eng land, Bris tol David J. Helfand, professor of astronomy, Anthony R. Pratkanis, professor of psychology, Mark Boslough, physicist, Sandia National Laborato- Columbia Univ. Univ. of CA, Santa Cruz ries, Albuquerque, NM Terence M. Hines, prof. of psychology, Pace Univ., Benjamin Radford, investigator; research fellow, Hen ri Broch, phys i cist, Univ. of Nice, France Pleasantville, NY. Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Jan Har old Brun vand, folk lor ist; pro fes sor emer i tus Doug las R. Hofstad ter, pro fes sor of human James “The Amazing” Randi, magician; CSICOP of Eng lish, Univ. of Utah un der stand ing and cog ni tive sci ence, In di ana Univ. founding member; founder, Mar io Bunge, phi los o pher, McGill Univ., Montreal Ger ald Hol ton, Mal linc krodt Profes sor of Phys ics and Educational Foundation Robert T. Carroll, emeritus professor of philosophy, pro fes sor of his to ry of sci ence, Har vard Univ. Mil ton Ro sen berg, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Chic a go Sacramento City College; writer Ray Hy man*, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Or e gon Wal la ce Sam pson, MD, clin i cal pro fes sor of med i cine, Sean B. Carroll, molecular geneticist; vice president Stuart D. Jordan, NASA astrophysicist emeritus; Stan ford Univ.; ed i tor, Sci en tif ic Re view of for science education, Howard Hughes Medical science advisor to Office of Al ter na tive Med i cine Institute, Madison, WI Public Policy, , DC Am ar deo Sar ma*, chairman, GWUP, Ger ma ny Thomas R. Casten, energy expert; founder and , executive director, Committee for Richard Saunders, president, Australian chairman, Recycled Energy Development, Skeptical Inquiry, Amherst, New York Skeptics; educator; investigator; podcaster; Westmont, IL Law rence M. Krauss, foundation professor, School Sydney, Australia John R. Cole, an thro pol o gist; ed i tor, Na tion al of Earth and Space Exploration and Physics Dept.; Joe Schwarcz, director, McGill Office for Science Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u ca tion director, Origins Initiative, State Univ. and Society K.C. Cole, science writer; author; professor, Harry Kroto, professor of chemistry and Eu ge nie C. Scott*, phys i cal an thro pol o gist; ex ec u tive Univ. of Southern ’s Annenberg biochemistry, State Univ.; Nobel laureate di rect or, Nation al Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u cation School of Journalism Ed win C. Krupp, as tron o mer; di rect or, Rob ert Sheaf fer, sci ence writer Fred er ick Crews, lit er ary and cul tur al crit ic; pro fes sor Grif fith Ob ser va to ry, Los Angeles, CA emer i tus of Eng lish, Univ. of CA, Berke ley El ie A. Shneour, bi o chem ist; au thor; president and Law rence Kusche, sci ence writer research director, Bi os ys tems Re search In sti tute, Rich ard Dawk ins, zo ol o gist, Ox ford Univ. Le on Le der man, emer i tus di rect or, Fer mi lab; La Jol la, CA Geof frey Dean, tech ni cal ed i tor, Perth, Aus tral ia No bel lau re ate in phys ics Seth Shostak, senior astronomer, SETI Institute, Cor nel is de Ja ger, pro fes sor of as tro phys ics, Scott O. Lil i en feld*, psy chol o gist, Emory Univ., Mountain View, CA Univ. of Utrecht, the Neth er lands Atlanta, GA , science writer; broadcaster; UK Dan i el C. Den nett, Aus tin B. Fletch er Pro fes sor Lin Zix in, former ed i tor, Sci ence and Dick Smith,film pro duc er; pub lish er; Ter rey Hills, of Phi los o phy and di rect or of Cen ter for Cog ni tive Tech nol o gy Dai ly (Chi na) N.S.W., Aus tral ia Stud ies, Tufts Uni v. Je re Lipps, Mu se um of Pa le on tol o gy, Univ. of CA, Keith E. Stanovich, cognitive psychologist; Ann Druyan, writer and producer; CEO, Berke ley professor of human development and applied Cosmos Studios, Ithaca, NY Eliz a beth Loft us*, pro fes sor of psy chol o gy, psychology, Uni v. of Toronto Sanal Edamaruku, president, Indian Rationalist Univ. of CA, Ir vine Vic tor J. Sten ger, emer i tus pro fes sor of phys ics Association and Rationalist International Da vid Marks, psy chol o gist, City Univ., Lon don and as tron o my, Univ. of Ha waii; ad junct pro fes sor , professor, Complementary Medicine, Mar io Men dez-Acos ta, jour nal ist and sci ence writer, of phi los o phy, Univ. of CO Peninsula Medical School, Universities of Exeter and Mex i co City *, linguist; skeptical investigator; Plymouth, Exeter, UK Kenneth R. Miller, professor of , writer; podcaster Ken neth Fed er, pro fes sor of an thro pol o gy, Brown Univ. Jill Cor nell Tar ter,as tron o mer, SE TI In sti tute, Cen tral Con nec ti cut State Univ. Marv in Min sky, pro fes sor of me dia arts and sci en ces, Moun tain View, CA Barbara Forrest, professor of philosophy, M.I.T. Car ol Tav ris,psy chol o gist and au thor, Los Ange les, CA SE Univ. Da vid Mor ri son, space sci en tist, NA SA Ames Re search Da vid E. Thom as*, phys i cist and math e ma ti cian, An drew Fra knoi, as tron o mer, Foot hill Col lege, Cen ter Per al ta, NM Los Al tos Hills, CA Rich ard A. Mul ler, pro fes sor of phys ics, Univ. of CA, Neil de Grasse Ty son, as tro phys i cist and di rect or, Kend rick Fra zier*, sci ence writer; ed i tor, Berke ley Hay den Plan e tar i um, New York City SKEP TI CAL IN qUIR ER Joe Nick ell, sen ior re search fel low, CSI Indre Viskontas, cognitive neuroscientist, tv and pod- Christopher C. French, professor, Department Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician, Waalre, cast host, and opera singer, San Francisco, CA of Psychology, and head of the Anomalistic The Ma ri lyn vos Sa vant, Pa rade mag a zine Psychology Research Unit, Goldsmiths con trib ut ing ed i tor College, Univ. of London Lee Nis bet, phi los o pher, Medaille Col lege Yves Gal i fret, executive secretary, *, MD, assistant professor Stev en Wein berg, pro fes sor of phys ics and as tron o my, l’Union Rationaliste of neurology, Yale Univ. School of Medicine Univ. of Tex as at Austin; No bel lau re ate Luigi Garlaschelli, chemist, Università di Pavia , sci ence ed u ca tor and tel e vi sion host, E.O. Wil son, Univ. pro fes sor emer i tus, organismic and (Italy); research fellow of CICAP, Nye Labs evolutionary biology, Har vard Univ. the Italian skeptics group James E. Oberg, sci ence writer Rich ard Wis e man, psy chol o gist, Univ. Maryanne Garry, professor, School of Psychology, Irm gard Oe pen, pro fes sor of med i cine (re tired), of Hert ford shire, England Victoria Univ. of Wellington, New Zealand Mar burg, Ger ma ny Benjamin Wolozin*, professor, Department of Mur ray Gell-Mann, pro fes sor of phys ics, San ta Fe Lor en Pan kratz, psy chol o gist, Or e gon Health Pharmacology, Boston Univ. School of Medicine In sti tute; No bel lau re ate Sci en ces Univ. Marv in Zel en, stat is ti cian, Har vard Univ.

* Mem ber, CSI Ex ec u tive Coun cil (Af fil i a tions giv en for iden ti fi ca tion only.) March April 13 *_SI new design masters 1/31/13 9:52 AM Page 3

Skep ti cal In quir er March/April 2013 | Vol. 37, No. 2

ARTICLES COLUMNS 34 FROM THE EDITOR Treatise on Invisible Beings A Good Look at Invisibility...... 4 JOE NICKELL AND JAMES MCGAHA NEWS AND COMMENT Failure to Replicate Results of Bem 40 Experiments Published by Same Journal/A Small Victory in the The Elberfeld Horses War on /Hall, Novella Join Ex- STEFANO VEZZANI ecutive Council of Committee for Skepti- cal Inquiry/Bent Spoon Awarded to 45 Homeopath/Five New Fellows, Two Con- sultants Elected to Committee for Skep- An Indian Test tical Inquiry/ Changed Views of Indian Astrology on and Science/Registry for JAYANT V. NARLIKAR Parapsychological Experiments/Long Is- land Chicanery: Old Tricks in a New 50 Package ...... 5 Understanding Believers’ IN VES TI GA TIVE FILES Cognitive Dissonance Scotland Mysteries—Part I: JAMES WALKER The Silly Ness Monster JOE NICK ELL ...... 20 CONFERENCE REPORT THINKING ABOUT SCIENCE 12 The Proper Role of Sociology of Science CSICon Nashville 2012 MAS SI MO PI GLI UC CI ...... 23 Ideas and Insights, Inquiries and Investigations: A Lively Conference VIBRATIONS Nashville Eyes Latest Trends in Science, UFOs Infest , Pseudoscience, and Belief Says Fox TV Affiliate ...... 25

Economic Fraud: How THE SCIENCE OF MEDICINE Cons and Criminals Scam Herbs Are Drugs the Public STEVEN NOVELLA ...... 28 SCIENCE WATCH ‘Quackademic Medicine’: Innate Morality? Babies Weigh In Teaching Pseudoscience KENNETH W. KRAUSE ...... 30 in Medical Schools SKEPTICAL INQUIREE Lessons from a Denver Fly Gender Issues in Science: BENJAMIN RADFORD...... 32 What’s Different, What’s Not? NEW AND NOTABLE BOOKS...... 59 FORUM LETTERS TO THE ED I TOR...... 62 53 Closing the Book THE LAST LAUGH...... 66 on ‘Open-Mindedness’ KATJA PETROVIC BOOK REVIEWS

54 The Parameters Flawed Look at Monsters Help! I’m Being Followed of Pseudoscience TERENCE HINES...... 60 by ! DAVID MORRISON...... 58 Medusa’s Gaze and ’s Bite: KENNETH L. FEDER e Pseudoscience Wars: Immanuel e Science of Monsters. Velikovsky and the Birth of the by Matt Kaplan 56 Modern Fringe Perpetual Discussion! by Michael D. Gordin MARK LEVY March April 13 *_SI new design masters 1/31/13 9:52 AM Page 4

[ FROM THE EDITOR Skep ti cal In quir er™ THE MAG A ZINE FOR SCI ENCE AND REA SON A Good Look at Invisibility ED I TOR Kend rick Fra zi er ED I TO RI AL BOARD James E. Al cock, Thom as Cas ten, Harriet Hall, Ray Hy man, Scott O. Lilienfeld, Elizabeth Loftus, Joe Nick ell, Steven ne of my favorite speculative novels is Memoirs of an Invisible Man by H.F. Novella, Am ar deo Sar ma, Eugenie C. Scott, Karen Saint. In this fine 1987 novel (later made into a very bad movie starring a Stollznow, David E. Thomas, Leonard Tramiel, Benjamin Wolozin miscast Chevy Chase) a thirty-four-year-old securities analyst is caught O CON SULT ING ED I TORS Sus an J. Black more, in an extraordinary scientific accident that renders him and a small spherical Ken neth L. Fed er, Barry Karr, E.C. Krupp, Da vid F. Marks, Jay M. Pasachoff, Rich ard Wis e man chunk of invisible. Like all good science fiction (although this one CON TRIB UT ING ED I TORS Austin Dacey, D.J. Grothe, has little science), the compelling aspect is the “What If?” If this happened to Kenneth W. Krause, Chris Moon ey, David Morrison, you, how would you live? Work? Drive? Eat? Make a living? From at least the James E. Oberg, Rob ert Sheaf fer, Karen Stollznow DEPUTY ED I TOR Ben ja min Rad ford time of H.G. Wells, invisibility has been a recurring, and often appealing, device MAN A GING ED I TOR Julia Lavarnway of science fiction and fantasy, from Star Trek’s Romulan/Klingon cloaking device ART DI RECT OR Chri sto pher Fix to Harry Potter’s cloak of invisibility. Invisibility also plays a role in the new PRO DUC TION Paul E. Loynes movie and classic novel The Hobbit. But that’s all fiction. ASSISTANT EDITOR Sean Lachut In their “Treatise on Invisible Beings” in this issue, Joe Nickell and James Mc- WEBMASTER Matthew Licata Gaha take a broadly encompassing look at claims of entities reputedly capable PUBLISH ER’S REP RE SENT A TIVE Bar ry Karr COR PO RATE COUN SEL Steven Fox, of invisibility. It is remarkable how widespread such ideas are in the real world. Brenton N. VerPloeg By invisible the authors don’t mean transparent, camouflaged, obscured, or mi- BUSI NESS MAN A GER Pa tri cia Beau croscopic but truly invisible: “incapable of being seen by human vision in the vi- FIS CAL OF FI CER Paul Pau lin sual spectrum.” Starting with a supposed “invisible girl” exhibited in eighteenth- SUBSCRIPTION DATA MANAGER Jacalyn Mohr STAFF Melissa Braun, Cheryl Catania, century Paris, they roam over the entire topic: advanced technology (including Roe Giambrone, An tho ny San ta Lu cia, the hoax Experiment), extra-dimensional realms, alien domains, the John Sul li van, Diane Tobin, Vance Vi grass spirit realm, visionary experiences, “Magick,” and deistic power. Popular belief COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR Paul Fidalgo IN QUIRY ME DIA PRO DUC TIONS Thom as Flynn notwithstanding, they conclude—not surprisingly—that allegedly invisible en- DI RECT OR OF LI BRAR IES Tim o thy S. Binga tities are indistinguishable from imaginary beings. It is a revealing look at an en- The SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER is the of fi cial jour nal of the tertaining topic that’s not all it appears to be. Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry, This is the third time Nickell and McGaha have teamed up recently in the an in ter na tional organ i za tion.

SKEPTICaL INquIRER. They wrote “The Roswellian Syndrome,” our May/June The SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER (ISSN 0194-6730) is pub lished bi - month ly by the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry, 3965 Ren- 2012 cover article, and “The Exeter Incident Solved,” a special report in our sch Road, Am herst, NY 14228. Print ed in U.S.A. Pe ri od i cals November/December 2011 issue. Theirs is a cross-country collaboration. Nick- postage paid at Buf fa lo, NY, and at ad di tion al mail ing offi ces. Sub scrip tion pri ces: one year (six is sues), $35; two years, ell, a prolific investigator and writer, is of course our senior research fellow, based $60; three years, $84; sin gle is sue, $4.95. at our amherst, New York, headquarters. McGaha, an astronomer, retired mil- Ca na di an and for eign or ders: Pay ment in U.S. funds drawn on a U.S. bank must ac com pa ny or ders; please add US$10 itary pilot, and uFO skeptic, has his own observatory in Tucson. per year for ship ping. Ca na di an and for eign cus tom ers are In 1907, psychologist Oskar Pfungst published his now-classic exposé of en cour aged to use Vi sa or Mas ter Card. Canada Pub lications Mail Agreement No. 41153509. Return undeliverable Cana- Clever Hans, the supposed talking (and calculating) horse. The incident has since dian addresses to: IMEX, P.O. Box 4332, Station Rd., Toronto , ON M5W 3J4. served as case study of the perils of subconscious experimenter influence on an- In quir ies from the me dia and the pub lic about the work of imal or human subjects. But Clever Hans nevertheless had his successors, and in the Com mit tee should be made to Barry Karr, Executive Di- rector, CSI, P.O. Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. Tel.: this issue Stefano Vezzani tells the story of “The Elberfeld Horses,” which also 716-636-1425. Fax: 716-636-1733. Email: bkarr@center turned many scientific heads with supposed mathematical powers but in fact rep- forinquiry.net. Man u scripts, let ters, books for re view, and edi to ri al in quir - resented “an archetypal instance of pseudoscience.” ies should be sent to Kend rick Fra zi er, Ed i tor, SKEP TI CALIN QUIR - There is much more in this issue, including a physicist’s examination of Indian ER,EMAIL: [email protected]. 944 Deer Drive NE, Al bu querque, NM 87122. Be fore sub mit ting any man u - astrology, an inquiry into understanding believers’ cognitive dissonance, a series script, please con sult our updated and expanded Guide for Au thors for styles, ref er en ce requirements, and submittal of reports on our CSICon 2012 conference in Nashville, and many other re quire ments. It is on our website in two formats at www.csi - columns, including Kenneth Feder’s “Help! I’m Being Followed by ancient cop.org/pub lications/guide. aliens” and Steven Novella’s “Herbs Drugs,” the latter being another re- Ar ti cles, re ports, re views, and let ters pub lished in the SKEP- Are TI CAL IN QUIR ER rep re sent the views and work of in di vid u al au - minder that herbal supplements are a dangerous and unregulated big business. thors. Their pub li ca tion does not nec es sa ri ly con sti tute an en dorse ment by CSI or its mem bers un less so stat ed. — Cop y right ©2013 by the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry. All rights reserved. The SKEP TI CALIN QUIR ERis avail a ble on 16mm mi cro film, 35mm micro film, and 105mm mi cro fiche from Uni ver si ty Mi cro films In ter na tion al and is in dexed in the Read ers’ Guide to Pe ri od i cal Lit er a ture. Sub scrip tions and chan ges of ad dress should be ad - dressed to: SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER, P.O. Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. Or call toll-free 1-800-634-1610 (out side the U.S. call 716-636-1425). Old ad dress as well as new are nec es sa ry for change of sub scrib er’s address, with six Committee for Skeptical Inquiry weeks ad vance no tice. SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER sub scrib ers may “... promotes scientific inquiry, critical investigation, and the use not speak on be half of CSI or the SKEP TICAL IN QUIRER . of reason in examining controversial and extraordinary claims.” Post mas ter: Send chan ges of ad dress to SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER, P.O. Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. March April 13 *_SI new design masters 1/31/13 9:52 AM Page 5

[ NEWS AND COMMENT

Failure to Replicate Results of Bem Parapsychology “Correcting the Past: Failures to Repli- cate Psi.” Experiments Published by Same Journal The article is lengthy, but the central KENDRICK FRAZIER conclusion is succinctly stated: “across seven experiments (N= 3,289), we replicate the procedure of Experiments Two years ago the prepublication re lease 8 and 9 from Bem (2011), which had orig- of a research paper by psychologist inally demonstrated retro active facilitation Daryl Bem claiming experimental evi- of recall. We failed to replicate that find- dence for created a world- ing.” They further conducted a meta- wide media stir and intense controversy analysis of all replication attempts of the within the scientific and skeptical com- Bem experiments “and find that the aver- munities. age effect size (d = 0.04) is not different Bem, of Cornell university, claimed from 0.” that through nine experiments he had To put it even more directly (from the demonstrated the existence of precogni- beginning of their conclusions section): tion, specifically the existence of “con- “We conducted seven experiments test- scious cognitive awareness ...of a future ing for precognition and found no evi- event that could not otherwise be antic- dence supporting its existence.” ipated through any known inferential How can their results be reconciled process.” Essentially, he had claimed to with Bem’s? “It is unclear how Bem Journal of Personality and Social Psychology ©2012AmericanPsychologicalAssociation have produced evidence that psychic 2012, Vol. 103, No. 6, 933–948 0022-3514/12/$12.00 DOI: 10.1037/a0029709 could find significant support for a hy- abilities not only exist but can transcend Correcting the Past: Failures to Replicate Psi Jeff Galak Robyn A. LeBoeuf pothesis that appears to be untrue,” the time and allow the future to reach back- Carnegie Mellon University University of Florida Leif D. Nelson Joseph P. Simmons authors say. They suggest such possibil- University of California, Berkeley University of

ward to change the past. Across 7 experiments (N ϭ 3,289), we replicate the procedure of Experiments 8 and 9 from Bem (2011), which had originally demonstrated retroactive facilitation of recall. We failed to replicate that finding. ities as what psychologists call Type I Wefurtherconductameta-analysisofallreplicationattemptsoftheseexperimentsandfindthatthe average effect size (d ϭ 0.04) is no different from 0. We discuss some reasons for differences between Informed critics of parapsychology the results in this article and those presented in Bem (2011). error—a false rejection of the null hy- Keywords: psi, precognition, ESP, researcher degrees of freedom, meta-analysis were almost uniformly incredulous. al- pothesis. They also point to concerns Recently, Bem (2011) published an extremely thought- provide the necessary tightly controlled experiments, the purpose provoking article demonstrating the existence of precognition, a of the current article is to conduct and to synthesize replications by though Bem is a respected psychologist, “conscious cognitive awareness . . . of a future event that could not independent investigators. otherwise be anticipated through any known inferential process” about researcher degrees of freedom, (p. 407). Through nine experiments, Bem found consistent support Psi Phenomena for the idea that people have such precognitive abilities. He sug- they found so many flaws in the research gested that these findings present examples of retroactive influ- The precognitive abilities reported by Bem (2011) emerged ence, through which future events influence people’s current re- across a range of tasks. As one example, in Experiment 1, Bem which also raise the likelihood of falsely sponses and that more broadly these findings are instances of psi (2011) asked participants to select whether a picture would appear phenomena,or“anomalousprocessesofinformationorenergy on the left side of the screen or the right side of the screen. protocols and methods that in their view transfer that are currently unexplained in terms of known physical Participants’ selections were accurate more often than chance or biological mechanisms” (Bem, 2011, p. 407). would predict when the picture in question was an erotic one (but rejecting the null hy pothesis. While In his article, Bem (2011) acknowledged that psi is a contro- not a neutral, positive, or negative one), suggesting that people versial topic. He reported data suggesting that many, if not most, have precognitive abilities to detect where erotic stimuli will the conclusions had no validity. One of academic psychologists do not believe that psi phenomena exist. appear. Indeed, the publication of Bem’s research met with a wide variety Precognitive abilities also manifested on more complicated many experimental decisions are defen- ofreactionsintheacademicandpopularmediaalike,andalthough tasks. For example, in Experiment 5, participants were asked to some reactions were supportive, many were skeptical (Carey, choose which of two negatively arousing pictures they liked better. the most stinging re bukes came in the 2011a; Carey, 2011b; Wagenmakers, Wetzels, Borsboom, & van After this choice, the computer randomly selected one of the der Maas, 2011). In light of the surrounding psi and in pictures to serve as the target picture, which then flashed sublim- sible, “because their application is at the anticipation of the reaction to his article, Bem suggested that psi inally on the screen from 4 to 10 times. Research on the mere- researchers must conduct tightly controlled experiments that dem- exposure effect suggests that subliminal exposure to a negative form of an ex tended, in-depth critique of onstrate psi and “that can be replicated by independent investiga- target increases liking of that target (i.e., causes habituation; tors” (Bem, 2011, p. 407). Whereas Bem’s article may indeed Kunst-Wilson & Zajonc, 1980). Bem (2011) suggested that if discretion of the researcher examining people have precognitive abilities, their current liking of a negative picture would be enhanced by the fact that they will see that all nine experiments by York university This article was published Online First August 27, 2012. picture several times in the future (even though they have no Jeff Galak, Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University; known way of knowing that they will see it). Bem’s results data after the completion of the exper- Robyn A. LeBoeuf, Department of Marketing, University of Florida; Leif supported this prediction: When participants chose between neg- D. Nelson, Department of Marketing, University of California, Berkeley; ative picture pairs, they were more likely to prefer the one that psychologist and CSI Executive Council Joseph P. Simmons, Operations and Information Management Department, would later be selected to be the subliminally presented target. University of Pennsylvania. Perhaps the most straightforward and impressive demonstration iment, they can make a true effect more We would like to thank Eduardo Andrade and Justin Kruger for crucial of precognition emerged in Bem’s (2011) Experiments 8 and 9, assistance with the project and Gia Nardini for her help in collecting data for this article. which documented “retroactive facilitation of recall” (p. 419). In member James alcock in the SKEPTICaL these studies, participants saw 48 words and then were asked to Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Jeff recall as many of those words as possible. Next, participants were difficult to discern. ... Researcher de- Galak, Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Office 381-D, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. E-mail: jgalak@ given a chance to practice a randomly chosen subset of the 48 INquIRER (“Back from the Future: cmu.edu words by, for example, retyping them and recategorizing them. In 933 grees of freedom do not make a finding Parapsy chology and the Bem affair,” SI, false ... but they do make it much March/april 2011; see also editorial various universities, but none were ac- harder to distinguish between truth and “Why the Bem Experiments are Not cepted for publication by JPSP. In fact, falseness in reported data.” Parapsychology’s Next Big Thing” in the it said it would not consider publishing They end by quoting philosopher of same issue). replication failures. This fact raised more science Karl Popper: “an effect is not an alcock also concluded that the jour- controversy and concern. effect unless it is replicable, and a sci- nal that published Bem’s study, the Jour- Now the journal has had an apparent ence is not a science unless it conducts nal of Personality and Social Psy chology change of heart. It has finally published (and values) attempted replications.” (JPSP), had done everyone a disservice a set of experiments that attempted (and They do compliment Bem for encour- by publishing this “badly flawed research failed) to replicate Bem’s results. Seven aging the independent replication of his article.” Parapsy chology and the journal’s experiments conducted by Jeff Galak of experiments. own reputation, he wrote, had been dam- Carnegie Mellon university, Robyn a. alcock, who wrote SI’s 2011 critique, aged, and the article’s publication dis- LeBoeuf of the university of Florida, has mixed feelings about the Galak et served the public as well, “for it only adds Leif D. Nelson of the uni versity of Cal- al. paper: to [public] confusion about the existence ifornia at Berkeley, and Joseph P. Sim- While I am happy that they carried of psi.” mons of the university of Pennsylvania out this research and that it was pub- Experiments attempting to replicate have been published in JPSP’s final issue lished, I find it very odd that they fo- Bem’s results were quickly conducted at of 2012 (Vol. 103, No. 6) under the title cused on Bem’s studies as though

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they had been carefully de signed and Here is his initial comment: al. paper may or may not bring to an end well-executed. They were so poorly The number and size of their experi- this latest dramatic claim of scientific designed and so badly executed that ments, the detailed analyses, along evidence of the , but—com- the results do not merit the careful with their inclusion of several other consideration that this research gives bined with the previous critiques—it ap- studies which fail to replicate Bem, de- pears to have dealt a serious blow. as al- them. However, the experiments that prive the parapsychologists of their Galak address, #8 and #9, were the standard excuses for dismissing failed cock emphasized in his 2011 critique best of a bad lot. Nonetheless, I am replications. Bem and his supporters (and as Hyman has often also stressed), glad that they have done this research have one other excuse they can use. over the past eighty-odd years this kind and that it is in print. It counters They can, and will, point to ways in of drama has played out multiple times, Bem’s claims very nicely, without ruf- which the Galak et al. experiments fling any feathers I guess. differ from Bem’s experimental proto- and “each time parapsychologists ulti- col. The authors have anticipated this mately failed to persuade the scientific , professor of psychology and have adhered so closely to Bem’s world that parapsychological phenom- emeritus at the university of Ore gon and protocol, that whatever differences re- main appear trivial. ena (psi) really exist.” also a CSI Executive Coun cil member, is another longtime expert on such research. Publication by JPSP of the Galak et Kendrick Frazier is editor of the SKEPTICAL INqUIRER.

A Small Victory in the War on Quackery him I don’t have a problem with people who choose to waste their money on use- MATTHEW COPE less—or at best unproven—products, but I was surprised to see a display for a prod- ence and Society looks into the claims placing this display on the counter of the uct made and distributed by a company made by hazelwood promoters on its in- dispensary undermined customer confi- called Healing Hazel on the dispensary formative (and highly entertaining) dence in the credibility of his pharmacy. counter of my pharmacy, a branch of the site (http://blogs.mcgill.ca/oss/2012/03/ He immediately agreed and told me Jean Coutu Group (PJC) Inc. in Montreal. 02/can-hazelwood-or-amber-necklaces- that the hazelwood products would be The product is available as a range of help-with-the-pain-of-babies-teething). moved elsewhere forthwith. He ex plained necklaces and bracelets made of hazel- among its findings: that much as he would like to, he couldn’t wood links (prices range from about Hazelwood, they say, has the medicinal remove them altogether because the pur- $14.95–$24.95). The claims in the point- property of neutralizing the body’s chase had been made by his head office— of-sale material and the brochure imme- acidity. and what do the amber neck- the Jean Coutu Group. But he did add diately set my quackometer pinging into lace promoters claim as a mechanism that he refuses to sell homeopathic prod- the red zone. for the miraculous work of their prod- ucts in his pharmacy. uct? It releases succininic acid! It in- according to Healing Hazel, “Haz el - creases acidity! In conclusion, the McGill blog puts it wood helps neutralize acidity throughout There are several layers of nonsense best: the body,” and “Its significant benefits here. First of all, the body isn’t acidic or There is no science here, just some tes- have long been utilized by First Nations basic. That concept makes no sense. timonials, the same as one might get people.” It “works for the most part” to Body fluids such as blood, sweat or for any intervention be it a hazelwood urine can be acidic or basic, but not the relieve acne, eczema, psoriasis, kanker [sic] or amber necklace, or a suppository body itself. as far as blood goes, it has made from earwax collected by albino sores, ulcers, heartburn, arthritis, asthma, to be alkaline with a pH between 7 and virgins from Ethi opian mountain headaches, migraines, constipation, etc.” 7.4. If it wanders outside this range, it’s goats by the light of the full moon.... Its website (www.healinghazel.com/) a life-threatening situation. While it What makes people buy into such makes for interesting reading too, includ- may be possible to slightly alter blood folly? It’s the packaging. The necklaces ing the fact that they are now offering pH by diet, it certainly isn’t possible to come wrapped in a mix of scientific il- do so by wearing a necklace. literacy, simple credulity and wishful hazelwood/amber necklaces and bracelets thinking. promoted with similar claims: “When Healing Hazel offers no proof or sci- amber is worn on the skin, the warmth of ence, cites no properly conducted con- What the blog doesn’t say is that any the body releases trace amounts of heal- trolled double-blinded placebo studies, one of us can make a difference. arguing ing oils which is [sic] then absorbed into and offers no links to credible sources that with true believers is usually a waste of the blood stream [sic]. It is a natural rem- could back up its claims. time, but taking a small action where it edy for side effects associated with Clearly, by placing this on the counter might actually get results can be well teething, such as redness in the cheeks, of the dispensary, the pharmacy was tac- worth the effort. droolling [sic], diaper rashes, swollen itly endorsing the product. I brought my Matthew Cope works in Montreal’s burgeoning TV gums, etc.” concerns to the attention of the branch animation industry, writing scripts and story ed- The McGill university Office for Sci- owner, who is also a pharmacist. I told iting for a variety of shows.

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[ NEWS AND COMMENT

Hall, Novella Join Executive Council of Committee for Skeptical Inquiry

The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry has announced that two and have better armed us against the insidiously false and ab- luminaries of science and skepticism, CSI Fellows Harriet Hall surd claims that pervade medicine and the media.” and Steven Novella, have been elected to the Committee’s Exe - Members of the CSI Executive Coun cil are charged with de- cu tive Council. veloping programs for the Committee and making recommen- “We’re extremely fortunate to have two such important fig- dations on the activities and areas of activism on which CSI ures in the skeptic movement formally take leadership positions should focus. They serve on the editorial board of the SKEPTICAL at CSI,” said Barry Karr, executive director of the Com mittee for INQUIRER, assist and advise in conference and event planning, Skeptical Inquiry. “Dr. Hall and Dr. Novella have made extraor- take part in the election of new Fellows and Consultants, and dinary contributions to the public’s understanding of science, represent CSI at outside events and in the media.

Harriet A. Hall, MD, a retired Air Steven P. Novella, MD, is an academic Force physician and flight surgeon, clinical neurologist at Yale Uni versity has made a national name for her- School of Medicine. His column “The self by educating the public about Science of Medicine” ap pears in the pseudo scientific and so-called al- SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, and he is host of the ternative medicine. She is a con- popular weekly science podcast The tributing editor and frequent contrib- Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe. His utor to both the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NeuroLogicaBlog covers news and is- and Skeptic magazines, and wrote sues in neuroscience, skepticism, and “The Health In spector” column for O, , and he is founder and The Oprah Magazine. On the web, she contributes to the blog executive editor of the blog Science-Based Medicine. He is currently Science-Based Medicine and serves as an advisor for the president of the Skeptical Society, a senior fellow and website . In 2008, she published the book Director of Science-Based Medicine at the James Randi Educa- Women Aren’t Supposed to Fly: The Memoirs of a Female tional Foundation, and a founding fellow of the Institute for Science Flight Surgeon, and coauthored the 2012 textbook, Con- in Medicine. sumer Health: A Guide to Intelligent Decisions.

Bent Spoon Awarded to Homeopath GURMUKH MONGIA

For thirty years, the australian Skep tics meningitis or anything you care to The award itself is constructed from have annually presented the Bent Spoon mention. They also claim that you a polished and glossy chunk of gopher award in mockery of prominent pseudo- can use Home opa thy to treat domes- wood that (it is said) originated from tic violence, a bizarre claim indeed. If Noah’s ark. affixed to this piece of science. Richard Saunders, president of the Bent Spoon award helps shed the , says that he’s light on the activities of these people, wood is a spoon that (many believe) proud to be involved with this important then it’s well worth it. may have been used during the Last tradition: Supper. The spoon has been bent into a alternative health advocates have graceful curve by unexplained energies The Bent Spoon is awarded each year often been the recipients of this award, that are (suspected to be) un known to by the australian Skeptics to the per- including several anti-vaccination advo- petrator of the most preposterous science. piece of paranormal or pseudoscien- cates such as Dr. Viera Scheibner, the The Bent Spoon award was first tific piffle. It’s meant as sort of a light company Gentle Heal Pty Ltd, and given out in 1982 to Tom Wards, a noto- hearted award, although it does have Meryl Dorey of the infamous austral - rious “psychic” who made many predic- a serious side to it. Take the winner ian Vaccination Network. almost half tions of world events that were remark- of the 2012 Bent Spoon award: Fran of the Bent Spoon awards have been able for their inaccuracy. Sheffield of Home opathy Plus. Now this is a group who advocates the use given out to promoters of “alternative The latest recipient of the Bent Spoon of Home opathy instead of vaccines health” practices, demonstrating just award, Fran Sheffield, is a homeopath for polio or whooping cough or how widespread they are. based in New South Wales who manages

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the Plus website. Sheffield Five New Fellows, Two Consultants Elected has, on more than one occasion, com- to Committee for Skeptical Inquiry pletely ignored sanctions from the Ther- apeutic Goods administration that would The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry has elected five new Fellows. Hailing from a force her to take down misleading adver- range of disciplines, they were chosen for their significant contributions to the public tisements and replace them with a severe understanding of science, reason, and critical inquiry through scholarship, writing, statement of retraction. and work in the media. On CSI’s roster of Fellows, past and present, they join the likes of such legends as , , James Randi, E.O. Wilson, Elizabeth One outrageous claim from the Loftus, Eugenie C. Scott, Nobel laureates Murray Gell-Mann, Harry Kroto, and Steven Homeopathy Plus website is that home- Weinberg, and of course the late Paul Kurtz. The list of present Fellows appears on opathy “treats excesses of human behavior,” the inside cover of every issue of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. including victims and perpetrators of do- Fellows are recommended by other Fellows and elected by the CSI Executive mestic violence. The website also labels the Council. That body met in Nashville October 28, 2012, immediately following the whooping cough vaccine as “unreliable,” CSICon 2012 conference there. and advises visitors to the website to “hot- The five new Fellows: foot it to your local homeo path if you are struggling with whooping cough.” David H. Gorski. Cancer surgeon and re - an inventor, he has been awarded more approximately one in twelve aus- searcher at the Barbara Ann Kar manos than one hundred U.S. patents. tralian babies (8 percent) has not been Cancer Institute and chief of the breast fully immunized. For herd immunity to surgery section, Wayne State University Joe Schwarcz. Director, McGill Office for Science and Society. The office is dedi- take full effect, this number needs to be School of Medicine, De troit, . cated to helping the public separate Both an MD and a PhD, Gorski is manag- lowered. Herd immunity is extremely sense from nonsense. Schwarcz, who has ing editor of Science-Based Medicine, a important for children who are not able a PhD in chemistry, is a professor at blog exploring controversies in the rela- to receive proper immunization. These McGill Uni versity in Mon treal and is widely tionship between science and medicine. children rely on herd immunity to keep known, under the moniker “Dr. Joe,” for his Since first becoming interested in pseu- science popularization efforts including them safe. In November, the australian doscience and “alternative” medicine books, public lectures, a weekly news- academy of Science distributed a book- around 2000, he has become a frequent paper column, a weekly radio show, and let that dispelled the myths about vacci- blogger examining and exposing quack- frequent segments on the Discovery nation in an attempt to convince parents ery and pseudoscience. Channel Canada. to do the right thing for the health of Terence Hines. Professor of Psychol ogy, Indre Viskontas. Cognitive neuroscien- their children. Pace University, Pleasantville, New York. tist, television and podcast host, and The australian Skeptics also hope that He is also an adjunct professor of neu- opera singer, San Francisco, California. their Bent Spoon award will bring some rology at New York Medical College, Val- With a PhD in neuroscience, her research halla, New York. His research interests in- much-needed attention to this issue. The has explored the neurological basis of clude genetic and cognitive bases for award was presented at a dinner during memory, reasoning, and creativity. She co - belief in the paranormal. Hines is author the australian Skep tics’ national conven- hosted the television show Miracle­Detec- of Pseudo­science­and­the­Paranormal, tives where she provided the scientific view tion. In addition to the Bent Spoon in its second edition, and he frequently in examining mysterious events. Since award, the australian Skeptics also gave does critical reviews of work in parapsy- February 2012, she has cohosted the out the 2012 Skeptic of the Year award. chology. His PhD is from the University of Center for Inquiry’s radio show and pod- This more desirable award went to the Oregon, where he was a student of Ray cast Point­of­Inquiry. lobby group Friends of Science in Medi- Hyman. cine in recognition of their efforts to chal- Clifford A. Pickover. Scientist, au thor, edi- In addition to the new Fellows, two new lenge australian universities that provide tor, IBM T.J. Watson Re search Center. Pick- Scientific and Technical Con sultants for courses in medical pseudoscience, such as over’s PhD is in the field of molecular bio- the Committee for Skepti cal Inquiry have , , re flexology, and physics and biochemistry, but his dozens been elected: of books range over the entire spectrum of . Sharon Hill: Geologist, writer, re searcher, science and mathematics to religion and creator and editor of the Doubtful­News history. His three most recent are The­Med- Gurmukh Mongia is a computer scientist working blog (doubtfulnews.com), Harrisburg, PA. in the field of web development. He currently op- ical­Book, The­Physics­Book, and The­Math erates a blog and podcast related to critical think- Book. Pickover’s books are motivated by his Tim Printy: Amateur astronomer, UFO ing, The Dumb asses Guide to Knowledge interest in bringing science, mathematics, skeptic, former Navy nuclear reactor oper- and creativity to the broader public. Also ator/division chief, Man chester, NH. (www.dumbassguide.info).

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[ NEWS AND COMMENT

Paul Kurtz Changed Registry for Parapsychological Experiments Views on Secularism CAROLINE WATT and Science a webpage for registering parapsycho- parapsychological experiments has logical experiments has been imple- been discussed many times, but a reg- and Rebecca Goldstein mented by the Koestler Parapsy - istry has not previously been available. It’s a bittersweet honor to say a few chology unit (KPu) at the university This study registry provides an oppor- words in memory of our dear friend and of Edinburgh. Registration prior to tunity to demonstrate that the experi- a great man, Paul Kurtz. Before there conducting an experiment eliminates ments are free of common biases in ex- were celebrity atheists, there was Paul. many common biases in research and perimental research. These biases can Paul did not appear on the Col bert Re- is particularly valuable for controversial be very difficult to detect without port, did not write bestsellers, and did topics. It is a well-established practice prospective registration. Registration is not travel on coast-to-coast book tours. in medical research but has not been valuable for experiments conducted by But Paul did something deeper and formally practiced in parapsychology skeptics as well as for experiments by more fundamental that paved the way or academic psychology. proponents of the paranormal. Prospective registration makes a for those of us that came after him. The KPu study registry webpage is planned experiment a matter of public Paul, first of all, changed the world’s at http://www.koestler-parapsychol- record, which prevents the suppression view of what it meant to be a champion ogy.psy.ed.ac.uk/TrialRegistry.html. of results that do not come out the way of secularism and science. He did not Other options for study registration the experimenters hoped. Registration may become available in the future. The define himself as an atheist, in terms of includes the specific hypotheses that something we should not be lieve in, but KPu registry webpage is also intended are planned, which prevents experi- to serve as a resource that will provide rather as a humanist, in terms of things menters from adapting the experimen- we should believe in. In his various hu- information about other registration tal hypotheses to match the results or options as they become available. manist manifestos, Paul laid out a posi- reporting results for only the analyses tive agenda for a defensible, enlightened, with favorable outcomes. Medical jour- Caroline Wattis at the Koestler Para psychology moral , one that did not de- nals increasingly require registration of Unit, Department of Psy chology, School of Phi- pend on dogma or supernatural agents, studies as a condition for publication. losophy, Psychology, and Language , but that laid out a moral vision and The value of study registration for University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK. agenda that we could positively believe in and work to fulfill. Paul also built institutions: brick and Long Island Chicanery: mortar institutions but also magazines Old Tricks in a New Package and book imprints and associations that BRYAN FARHA outlived him and that carried his mes- sage to a much greater audience than any James van Praagh. Sylvia Browne. the show is now enjoying its second single person could have done on his John Edward. It’s starting to sound season, its inaugural season netted 1.3 own. like a broken record, but make way million viewers per episode. So, in mourning Paul’s passing, we for the next in a long list of alleged Forgive me for describing Ca- certainly can’t comfort ourselves with the who have hit it big with the puto’s methods using the same old thought that he’s up there looking down media—eresa Caputo. You proba- terms and phrases you’ve heard in de- on us, or that we’ll meet him again bly know her from the Long Island scribing those of the others men- someday. Paul would be the last person Medium, a popular television show on tioned in the previous paragraph— that would tolerate such bromides. But e Learning Channel (TLC). To no subjective validation, fishing, cold we can comfort ourselves with some- skeptic’s surprise, TLC in recent years reading, and warm reading—but thing deeper: that Paul left us a world has been using the word “learning” that’s what it is. that was better for his efforts. very loosely (although I credit their eresa Caputo likes to give pre- sister network, , sumably “impromptu” readings (al- Steven Pinker is Johnstone Family Pro fessor in for airing critical-thinking shows like though I don’t assume that anything the Department of Psychology at Harvard Uni- Mythbusters). Long Island Medium is is genuinely impromptu in an edited versity. yet another show devoid of scientific program). She does this by giving Rebecca Goldstein is a novelist and philosopher scrutiny by TLC, most assuredly be- readings while she is out and about and is currently the Franke Fellow at the Whit- cause of the almighty dollar. While doing her daily errands and such. I ney Humanities Center, Yale University.

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“It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry.” – Thomas Paine You Are Invited to Join the Center for Inquiry to Act, Combat, and Promote…

Since 1976, three remarkable organizations have been at the forefront of efforts to promote and defend critical thinking and freedom of inquiry. The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry (founded in 1976), the Council for Secular (1980), CSI Fellow and SkEPTICAl INquIrEr Editorial Board Member and the Center for Inquiry James Alcock leads a class at a Skeptics’ Toolbox event. The Toolbox (1991) have advocated, has been held every year, except once, since1992. championed, and, when necessary, defended the freedom to inquire—while Your Help Is a Necessity! ACT, COMBAT, and PROMOTE demonstrating how the fruits Each year, magazine of objective inquiry can be We are currently focused on three subscriptions fund a smaller used to understand reality, goals central to our core objectives: percentage of this work, even refute false beliefs, and achieve as the need for activism in- Act to end the stigma results that benefit humanity. attached to being creases and the population nonreligious. we serve grows. In many ways, our organiza- tions have been ahead of their Combat religion’s More than ever, CFI and its time. Now, they are privileges and its influence affiliates depend on the on public policy. truly 3 For Tomorrow. generosity of our supporters Through education, advocacy, both to fund daily operations Promote science-based publishing, legal activism, skepticism and critical thinking. and to build capital and their network of regional for the future. branches, CFI and its affiliate Make your most generous gift

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[ NEWS AND COMMENT

started noticing that when she gives with yet another Anderson Live audience convincing a group of skeptics that she readings to passers-by—in one instance member: “So who was buried in a red has true psychic ability? Did you hear at a supermarket—that they were no- dress?” Complete silence. Ouch. ques- about this one? ere has to be a catch, ticeably less detailed (“I can tell that tioning another audience member (who right? as it turns out, according to CSI your mother is with you”) than when had lost her mother), “Is your dad also web columnist Karen Stollznow, the she would read an employee at a retail departed as well?” She responded, “Yes.” “skeptics” were a group of Caputo’s hus- outlet. e employees got a more de- Caputo says, “So know that they are to- band’s friends in the motorcycle shop tailed reading, like she did in a coffee gether.” is made the audience mem- where he was employed. Her husband’s shop with an employee’s mother in one ber feel comforted. But there’s a prob- friends. episode (“Your mother—she told me lem with this exchange. If Caputo knew So why is she so popular? First, she she was a seamstress”). Why would this that they were together, why did she has the same fast-paced speech and be? While I can’t be certain of this, it need to ask if her father had departed? rapid-fire readings that helped John could be that the employee is likely Edward to fame. is is a huge advan- present in the establishment each time tage because it doesn’t give the person Caputo visits the retailer and she could Long Island Medium being read time to calculate hits and be finding out information in advance. is yet another show misses. But it sure seems like there have Don’t many employees have name tags? devoid of scientific been many hits. erefore, there are Hmmm. Of course, the general reading more readings to be subjectively vali- (, in fact) elicited tears since scrutiny by The dated in a shorter amount of time, lead- it was a heart-warming message. Learning Channel, ing to perceived accuracy (even though But what psychic’s record is com- the rate of hits is poor). Second, she has plete without incorrect assertions as most assuredly a novel twist in that her TLC gig is, es- well? On Anderson Live, Caputo asked because of the sentially, a reality show. Recall the im- a man in the audience—knowing his promptu readings of strangers (in the wife had died—“Is that your wedding almighty dollar. David Blaine and Criss angel tradi- ring [from your wife]?” e man replied, tion). again, I’m not staking my pay- “No, it’s my mother’s.” Caputo was check on these being truly impromptu wrong. Regarding furniture, Caputo Caputo was busted, but I’m sure loyal encounters, but at least the illusion of asked the man, “Do you still have the believers would dismiss the failure. such has been created. It’s a fresh twist chair?” to which the man replied, “No.” is train of (or illogic) is sim- for a psychic television show. Same Wrong again. Caputo continues, “Did ilar to what she said at the start of one song—different verse. she have an issue with her legs prior to of her TLC programs: “When I told my eresa Caputo won the Pigasus her passing?”—the man replies, “No.” husband I was a medium, he didn’t award for Performance from the James Wrong yet again. adept at fishing (ask- know what to say.” Wanting the viewer Randi Educational Foundation in 2012. ing a question to a large group of peo- to believe she had to tell her husband ple, hoping that just one will answer she was a psychic after being married Performance is the operative word. as positively), she cleverly asked the entire several years is a hard pill to swallow. He for e Learning Channel, what have audience (250 to 300 people) if some- couldn’t figure it out for himself? It also we really learned? Now, for the saddest one they knew had an issue with their doesn’t square with her saying on An- part of all: Why do so many people legs—so the failure was overlooked and derson Live that she has been psychic all want to watch it? as usual, it tells us attention was diverted to someone on the her life. If so, her husband should have more about ourselves than it does Ca- other side of the studio. is happened known from the get-go. Hmmm. puto or TLC. with lightning speed, so the inaccuracies Now for the million-dollar question: were unnoticed by most. Why does eresa Caputo receive so Acknowledgments She commented to another person many disconfirming answers from the anks to my friend Denise for asking whose mother had passed, “So when subject being read when she’s a guest on me to investigate Caputo and to Kai for you would sit with mom [when you felt other television shows, yet more con- urging me to write this piece. her spirit], you would feel the presence firming answers when on her own pro- of others who had departed—is that gram? Do I really have to answer this, correct?” e audience member shook or can I just say that it’s much easier for Bryan Farha is professor of Behavioral Stud- her head “no.” Once again, wrong. a magician to do card tricks when ies in Education at Oklahoma City University. Sometimes even fishing to the masses they’re using their own deck of cards? He is a CSI consultant and editor of Paranor- fails and psychics really wind up with But what about some of the appar- mal Claims: A Critical Analysis. His e-mail ad- egg on their faces—like Caputo did ently amazing things she’s done, like dress is [email protected] .

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[CONFERENCE REPORT

Ideas and Insights, Inquiries and Investigations: A Lively Conference in Nashville Eyes Latest Trends in Science, Pseudoscience, and Belief

KENDRICK FRAZIER Photos by Brian Engler

Our CSICOP group (now the Com - mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry) originated the skeptics’ conference. So it was re- freshing when, after a multiyear hiatus, CSI got back into the conference scene in October 2011 with its CSICon con- ference in New Orleans. That proved a fun intellectual idea fest (see reports in our March/april 2012 issue). It was good to be back. For the 2012 confer- ence (October 25–28), CSI moved the CSICon site north to Nashville, an- other lively location, and the talks, sym- posia, and surrounding events garnered generally great reviews from partici- pants. The irrepressible Richard Wise man, the u.K. psychologist and CSI Fellow, emceed throughout the conference with his usual effervescent wit. Many speak- ers were CSI Fellows; all were knowl- edgeable experts. Chief conference or- ganizer and CSI Execu tive Director Barry Karr didn’t speak but was every- where in evidence. The Halloween party again was a big hit. There was a midnight séance to call up Houdini (he didn’t show). The whole thing con- cluded on Sunday with a lively first- ever full-audience interactive discussion with members of the CSI Executive Council. CSI dedicated the conference to our founder and former longtime chairman, the philosopher Paul Kurtz. Kurtz died the weekend before at the age of eighty- six (see our January/February 2013 issue for tributes). In the opening remarks, committee CEO and Presi dent Ronald a. Lindsay and I, representing SKEPTI- CaL INquIRER and the CSI Executive Council, lauded Kurtz’s powerful legacy

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in creating the modern skeptical move- coalescent theory, a population genetics ment. Many speakers over the next days model for tracing genes back to com- likewise remarked on Kurtz’s key role in mon ancestors. The anti-evolution creating the first organized movement Discovery Institute, Myers said, claims to advance critical inquiry, the scientific that the gorilla genome research messes attitude, and informed scientific criti- up the human genetics connections to cism of paranormal and pseudoscien- the great apes. “That’s hilarious,” Myers tific claims. said. “These people don’t have a god- a live-audience two-hour taping of damned clue about evolutionary biol- The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe pod- ogy. They are dead wrong.” cast followed. The Novella clan (Steven, Psychologist James alcock led off a Bob, and Jay), Rebecca Wat son, and session on Belief and Memory with a Evan Bernstein showed why their survey about belief, noting that beliefs weekly science-and-skepticism show is are a dynamic production and can be so popular. then enter- produced very quickly. Some beliefs are tained with his unique combination of based on reason and carefully assembled guitar and skeptical wit. evidence, but many are based on social (all this was preceded by two pre- constructions (we rely on the perceptions conference workshops, one by the Skep- and reactions of others we trust) and chicks applying skepticism to everyday feeling. The “feeling of knowing” is an nonsense, one on conducting investiga- emotion and is not tied to knowledge tions.) and may have nothing to do with reality. The conference was off to a fine as for belief and disbelief, assessment is start. I was able to hear most sessions a two-stage process. We automatically (I missed a couple of individual speak- believe new information before we assess ers). Some highlights I found memo- it. Judging it comes later, if at all. The rable follow. brain processes content information and Biologist P. z. Myers is most known veracity information separately. He re- for his outspoken attacks on religion, but visited “The Belief Engine” he wrote at CSICon for the second year in a row, about in SI many years ago (“we are a he surprised many by giving a straight belief-generating engine”) and ended science talk. The first part dealt with dif- by emphasizing again that some beliefs fering rates of evolution. “Selection correlate with reality, and some do not. works best in very large populations Psychologist Elizabeth Loftus noted with a low mutation rate,” he said. that beliefs can begin to feel like mem- “Small populations with a high muta- ories, “then we have false memories.” She tion rate are dominated by chance.” described some of her and colleagues’ Lest we think humans are numerous in ground-breaking experiments demon- biological terms, he quickly disabused. strating that beliefs can be implanted. Humans have “a small population,” She also gave examples of prominent about 7 × 109.In contrast Pelagibacter, political figures recalling false memories, which make up half of all bacterial noting, “no one is protected from having plankton in the ocean in summer, false memories.” She also emphasized number about 2 × 1028. “So in humans, the notorious unreliability of eyewitness selection is not the prime pressure for testimony, noting the Innocence Project change.” has used DNa evidence to overturn Recent research into the gorilla 225 wrong ful convictions, “most based genome shows, to the surprise of some, on faulty memories.” She facetiously that “in 30 percent of the genome go- proposed that the oath administered to rillas are closer to humans or chim- witnesses testifying should be changed panzees than the latter are to each to: “Do you solemnly swear to tell the other.” He then described how that truth, the whole truth, or whatever you agrees with calculations in what’s called think you remember?”

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Neuroscientist Indre Viskontas praised first editions of a 1902 book, The Expert the value of storytelling as a memory aid at the Card Table, by someone known (“to remember details of a past event, only by the pseudonym S.W. Erdnase. make them part of a great story”) but The book was far ahead of its time, said noted that remembering is a reconstruc- Wise man, “the best sleight of hand tive process that is often the functional ever.” “We still don’t know who wrote equivalent of imagining. that book,” Wiseman said. “It is a real In “Is Paul Dead?” investigator Mas - mystery.” The group’s planned visit to the simo Polidoro gave one of the most en- Creation Museum in didn’t tertaining talks, a multimedia feast of happen. Recounted Watson: “They said imagery and music and sounds play- yes, you can film. But you can’t make fun fully exploring the persistent idea that of us. We ended up skipping it.”

The visit by Richard Wiseman, , and to the Creation Museum in Kentucky didn’t happen. Recounted Watson: “They said yes, you can film. But you can’t make fun of us. We ended up skipping it.”

Paul McCartney of is dead. That evening, at the CSI Hallo ween “What is going on here?” Polidoro Party, Wiseman was presented his ear- asked. “There’s no evidence of a pre- lier-announced CSI Balles annual Prize planned hoax. ... You start with an in Critical Think ing (SI, September/ idea, and you look for proof. It can be October 2012), for the best skeptical anything. and it always works.” book of the year, Para normality: Why We another hilarious session featured See What Isn’t There. On first thought the Richard Wiseman, Jon Ronson (author CSI Halloween Party might seem a of The Men Who Stare at Goats, made strange venue for awarding Wiseman his into the movie with George Cooney), prize. But maybe it all does fit. He and Rebecca Watson re counting their seemed to relish it. CSI “Paranormal Road Trip.” In this Sara Mayhew, the writer/illustrator journey earlier that week by car from of Manga-style graphic novels (see her CSI headquarters in amherst, New cover article in the March/april 2012 York, to the Nashville conference site SKEPTICaL INquIRER) gave another looking for “paranormal” adventures en tertaining talk, illustrated with her they encountered a lot of “haunted drawings. “I want to create a fandom- houses” but nothing paranormal. Wise - type feeling for skeptics and scientist man did find himself gobsmacked dur- heroes,” she said. She noted that these ing a visit to the underground lair in comic versions of anime are a multimil- Kentucky of a leading collector of magic lion-dollar art form with a high female memorabilia (“a cave full of magic”). readership, about 70 percent in the u.S. There, neatly shelved eighty feet under- “Good role models present a variety of ground, he found one of only fifteen different people. Manga does that.

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Having more female role models is good for young men and males as well.” She said one can apply the same goal to sci- ence role models. “My goal is to combine my love of sci- ence and critical thinking with this emo- tional art form for people to connect.” Like Indiana Jones (“a cool scientist role model”) or the women in her stories, “We need more of these epic stories,” but in- stead of “” and “believe” as themes, seen too often in other epics, “we can have a message of, ‘How do we know about the Economic Fraud: that is completely unavailable), social world?’ in an honest way. We need heroes proof (“other people are winning”), false who think their way out of crises, who How Cons and scarcity (about this rare 1860 coin, “There care about the truth.” Criminals Scam are only four left in the world”), authority, With two strong statements—“Just be- reciprocity, and a whole litany of others. cause you call something science doesn’t the Public make it so” and “There is no scientific ev- “What harm does it do?” That is the idence against evolution,” Eugenie C. perennial challenge hurled at skeptics. Scott of the National Cen ter for Science What harm is there in people credulously Education began her report on the current believing in things that aren’t true, that status of evolution-creation disputes. at are too good to be true? When it comes their root is that creationists mistakenly to economic fraud crimes, the harm is believe that “evidence against evolution self-evident. Money is lost, lots of it. equals evidence for creation,” thus their Sometimes one’s life savings, sometimes continual attacks on evolution and their entire fortunes. evolving strategies for undermining its Psychologist Anthony Pratkanis, of the University of California, Santa Cruz, is teaching. deeply involved in this issue, and he gave Statehouse legislatures are a prime tar- Can we stop it? Pratkanis de scribed a powerful presentation on the weapons get. about forty “Evidence against Evo- a project he and his psychologist col- of fraud—how cons and criminals scam leagues have been working on with the lution” bills, also called “academic free- the public. Amer icans alone lose $40 bil- dom” bills, exist in various stages. Two FBI and other law enforcement authori- lion a year in telemarketing fraud, $110 ties. It is called Santa Monica’s Reverse have passed, in Louisiana and Ten nessee. billion in fraud generally. Worldwide, the Boiler Room. It involves identifying victims Creationists are masters at distorting totals are staggering. before the con is completed, calling them, the meaning of words. “If you see ‘bal- There is no evidence for the myth of and warning them. The reverse call center anced’ and ‘evolution’ on the same page, the weak victim. The weak and the strong sends out prevention messages, giving you know you are looking at a creationist are taken. And the evidence indicates that people a coping strategy. document.” Other euphem isms to look seniors are less susceptible, not more; Ethical safeguards have been put in out for are “full range of views” and “teach they are just targeted more. Victims are place, and the FBI is on-site to monitor. the controversy.” Says Scott: “To misedu- more likely to have experienced a nega- Victims are debriefed. cate young learners does them no favors.” tive life event. And contrary to what you Does it work? “It has cut the victim- Most all these latest bills avoid men- might expect, victims are more, not less, ization rate in half,” says Pratkanis. “This tioning religion, stress free speech, advo- financially literate. They think they are im- is the first demonstration of an effective mune. That makes everyone susceptible. cate teacher protection if teaching “alter- deterrent to this crime. ... Forewarning Social influence is the weapon in natives” to evolution, and use permissive works.” fraud crimes, Pratkanis emphasized. As a scientist, Pratkanis says he language (“allow” not “require”). “They are He showed parts of a training video, finds this work “exhilarating.” But as a very clever the way they set up these bills.” “Weapons of Fraud,” detailing how scam human being, “I got depressed. We can What to do? Inform yourself, pay at- artists tailor their pitch to what makes you see how it [scamming] works. Yet it tention to your legislature and state and vulnerable. (“It’s like cold reading.”) They keeps going on and on.” local school boards, and support good sci- keep and share records of phone conver- His advice to others? “Develop those ence standards and teaching. as for the sations. They use such weapons as phan- skeptical skills. Keep asking those crit- tom fixation (something you would like ical questions.” —K.F.

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court cases so far, the news is good: “One The good explanation, said Kahan, is hundred percent of the case law has what he calls “identity-protective cog- been in favor of evolution.” nition.” It is simply this: “People have a symposium on science and public group allegiances that make them inter- policy was actually an update and elabo- pret science findings in different ways.” ration of a controversy played out in re- Those ways consistently go in the direc- cent issues of the SKEPTICaL INquIRER: tion of the values that protect their social science research into political be- group identity. Other, not-so-good ex- liefs as described in SI Contributing Ed- planations include science denial, mis- itor Chris Mooney’s 2012 book The Re- information, a deficit, and publican Brain: The Science of Why They authoritarian personality. Science de- Deny Science—and Reality, his SI article nialism fails as an explanation because “Why the GOP Distrusts Science,” and views are divided along lines consistent the ensuing controversy (letters in SI and with their group. People of each party Ronald a. Lindsay’s somewhat critical “count someone as an expert when he review of Mooney’s book in SI.) has positions consistent with their cul- My introduction was a shorter form tural outlook.” Both parties believe in of what became my editorial “Can We being guided by a scientific consensus, Have Civilized Con versa tions about “but they disagree on what that consen- Touchy Science Policy Issues” in our Jan - sus is.” uary/February 2013 issue. Lindsay recounted the evidence he Mooney, knowing he was much the amassed in his SI review calling into target of the ensuing two talks, began by question Mooney’s key conclusions. He noting that he is a science journalist concluded that one problem is that many covering the research on the subject. of the studies Mooney cited may actually “I’m reporting on the research. So if you not be measuring conservatism. don’t like the conclusions, don’t blame unfortunately, the session’s time ran me, blame the science.” He reiterated out before Mooney could give any real that those studies show that “there’s response, other than to say that he dis- something unique about Re pub licans’ agreed with virtually all of Lindsay’s view of science,” and it involves “not just criticisms. Nevertheless, after the ses- denial of science” but “denial of reality.” sion they were seen sitting at a table to- He maintained that liberals and conser- gether in what seemed amiable conver- vatives “have different personalities.” sation, so perhaps, in this setting at least, Without even considering political con- the civility sought in the title of my SI tent, key conservative traits are consci- editorial prevailed. entiousness and order and stability In his “The Science of Medicine” while a key liberal trait is openness to column in the November/December new experience and new ideas. These 2010 SKEPTICaL INquIRER,Yale School traits explain much about the different of Medicine physician Steven Novella parties’ political views and their atti- wrote tellingly about “The Misunder - tudes toward science. In his view con- stood Placebo,” and in his talk he re- servatives’ need for “cognitive closure” turned to that topic. and a tendency toward authoritarian The so-called placebo effect is a sub- certainty and black-and-white views is jective-only effect, he said, not an objec- antithetical to scientific thinking. tive one. It is manipulated by psychol- Dan Kahan, a professor of law and of ogy only, not physiology. Most placebo psychology at Yale university, was first up. effects are illusory effects that depend The essential problem all are concerned upon belief in getting traction. as for about, he said, is “the failure of valid and the often-vaunted “-body” connec- amply disseminated science to persuade.” tion? “Well, yeah,” said Novella, “be- He offered “one good explanation” and cause it’s the same option. What other four “not so good” explanations. option is there?” So-called “placebo

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medicine” exploits the confusion ‘Quackademic Medicine’: Teaching about placebos. It makes vague use of the term “healing” and plays into the Pseudoscience in Medical Schools branding and marketing of “comple- mentary and ” A problem of serious concern to skeptics cine.” Gorski’s succinct take? “Integrative med- (see adjacent sidebar about the pseu- these days is the rapid perfusion of pseudo- icine = science + magic.” doscience in medical schools). an ex- science into medical schools. This practice is Major medical schools like the University of ample of the exploitation of placebo eagerly promoted by proponents of so-called Maryland and George town have been integrat- confusion is the often heard statement alternative medicine and increasingly allowed ing CAM throughout their curriculum and even that “acu punc ture works—as a by a medical education culture not alert to into basic science courses. This has proven placebo.” That, said Novella, “just what’s at stake. popular. “Bioener getic medicine” is another means that the outcome was nega- Prominent physicians in the skeptical new term, allowing the teaching of such non- tive.” So what’s the harm? Ex tolling movement brought the practice into the spot- scientific concepts as a “vital force” and “qi.” a placebo is “installing bizarre, unsci- light in a major CSICon symposium on the “This is the foot in the door . . . like the entific, mystical, nonscientific beliefs problem. Trojan Horse,” said Gorski. Har vard, Michigan, in patients.” and the Cleve land Clinic are all welcoming In case you didn’t know it, the these intrusions of questionable medical world was supposed to end on De- concepts into their curricula. cember 21, 2012. The myth of an im- Often the cry is heard to “treat the whole pending apocalypse on that date— and patient.” “This pisses me off,” said Gorski. “That’s drawing on everything from the other concerned what doctors already do,” he notes. “And it cre- Mayan calendar to supposed Sumer- physicians see an ates a false dichotomy: You don’t need to use ian or biblical predictions, to worries quackery to ‘treat the whole patient.’” about comets or the nonexistent increasing hostility He and other concerned physicians see planet Nibiru, to pole shifts, planetary toward science an increasing hostility toward science-based alignments, and solar flares—infected medicine. One commentator even has called evidence-based healthcare “micro fascism.” credulous websites across the Internet based medicine. Contributing to the problem is the relative and worried the hell out of a signifi- One commentator indifference of most physicians, what Gorski cant share of the world’s population even has called refers to as a “shruggie,” a person who (10 percent of americans, according evidence-based doesn’t care. “Most doctors just don’t care.” to a Reuters poll). Things got so bad “SkepDoc” Harriet Hall, a frequent SI con- that in the first week of December the healthcare tributor, said what’s happening in medical Russian government put out an an- “micro fascism.” schools is a reflection of what’s happening in nouncement that the world would not society overall. The view is, in short, “We don’t end later that month, and in the need no stinkin’ intellectuals” and “We don’t NaSa did much the need no education—we have Google.” Other same thing. factors include the ideas that positive thinking Come to think about it, as I write One good label for the infiltration of pseu- makes it so and “my facts are as good as any up these notes in mid December, it’s doscience into medical schools is “Quacka- others,” a distrust for authority, looking for an probably all for naught, but in the oft demic Medi cine,” a term coined by physician easy solution, postmodernism (truth is rela- chance the world continues after the Robert W. Don nell. In the CSI symposium, can- tive), and a rising acceptability of doctor- winter solstice, I’ll continue. Planetary cer surgeon David Gorski, who edits the Sci- bashing. scientist David Morrison, as SI read- ence-Based Medicine website, used that term She told the story of a retired physician ers know, has been at the forefront of approvingly. He noted that quackery has un- who took up acupuncture and soon found it trying to rebut these rumors, provid- dergone a linguistic evolution, a “major re- working on everything. Wrote this doctor: ing accurate scientific information branding of quackery.” What forty years ago was “There is nothing like personal experience to through NaSa’s “ask an astrobiolo- properly called “unscientific medicine” began convince one of an effect.” Hall noted that he gist” website, CSI’s website, and in ar- to be called, in the 1970s and 1980s, “alter- made a litany of common mistakes: confir- ticles and other forums. He spoke at native medicine.” (He considers that simply mation bias, using biased sources, not rec- CSICon Nashville. “unproven” and “often, disproven” practices.) ognizing how charisma can influence your “Com ple mentary and Alter n ative Medicine” view, cherry-picking the data, not under- The whole thing would be silly (CAM) came along in the 1990s, and now standing why science is necessary, relying on and laughable except that Morrison there is another rebranding: “Inte gra tive Medi- personal experience, the cause-effect fallacy, gets pained messages from children

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the ancient wisdom fallacy, and relying on the so caught up in these beliefs that they Sharon Hill, using lively illustra- personal experience of others. “The plural of tell him they are contemplating sui- tions, spoke on “How to Think about anecdote is not evidence,” Hall commented. cide or killing their pets to spare them Weird News.” Hill, a geologist by She lamented that critical thinking is not from the devastation. training, does the Doubtful News blog taught in medical schools. Morrison recounted some of these and writes a column on CSI’s website Kimball Atwood, another frequent contrib- messages and the “conflation of a va- called “Sounds Science-y.” (an SI ar- utor to SI and to Science-Based Medicine, re- riety of threads” of non-fact-based ticle on that subject by Hill appeared iterated Gorski’s view that misleading lan- belief about all of it. in our March/april 2012 issue.) guage contributes to giving nonscientific and “None of these ‘facts’ is true,” he “I’m a ‘weird news’ junky,” she said. pseudoscientific medical practices a free emphasized. “No scientist supports “Weird news is my favorite conversa- pass. Terms such as “allopathic,” “holistic,” any of these claims. None of these tion topic.” Weird news makes for a “complementary,” “alternative,” “integrative,” stories is covered in newspapers or good story, she says: “Mystery is mon- and “Western” all mislead. Atwood raised a reasonable question: TV.” It has been almost entirely an gered. The wow factor is stressed. ... “Why discuss implausible claims at all?” He Internet phenomenon. TV and entertainment is our new mis- believes medical schools should teach sci- as for a supposed galactic align- information highway.” entific skepticism. There are also important lessons in the history of medicine that can be taught, like the downfall of and the “pre-scientific practices” that persist Videos are hoaxed, birds fall from the sky, today, such as homeopathy, where teaching about Avogadro’s number could help stu- strange sounds are heard, dead carcasses dents understand homeopathy’s innate im- of normal animals are claimed to be demonoids plausibility. Skepti cism, with its emphasis on logical fallacies and its insistence that clear or monsters. Sharon Hill’s site has a whole thinking should trump pseudoscience, has category called “underwater mysteries.” great value. As for worries that it may be impolite or impolitic to raise such issues, Atwood said, “Clear thinking should not be sacrificed on the altar of politeness.” ment, “I don’t know what an align- She considers the main audience for It is a question of medical , he em- ment is. It’s not a term used by as- her Doubtful News site “the critical phasized: “Implausi ble treatments are uneth- tronomers. There is no alignment in thinking community.” The topics she ical. Deceptive placebos are unethical. And December. There is no core of fact to examines are endless, the sources piti- human studies of highly implausible claims this. These things are not going to ful: “Real things entwined with are unethical.” happen.” wrongness.” Videos are hoaxed, birds Eugenie C. Scott was the only non-physi- Says Morrison: “It’s all part of a fall from the sky, strange sounds are cian who spoke. As executive director of the mindset that believes in prophecy.” heard, dead carcasses of normal ani- National Center for Science Education (and Morrison labels this new outlook mals are claimed to be demonoids or a physical anthropologist) she has great con- “Cosmophobia—the fear of the end of monsters. She has a whole category cerns about allowing more and more pseu- the universe.” People who believe it are called “underwater mysteries.” Then doscience into medical schools. “It will mise- getting all their “information” on there are the quack cancer cures, al- ducate students,” she said. As for academic freedom, that is important, she noted, be- YouTube and elsewhere on the Inter - ways a problem for science-minded cause it allows teachers to teach unpopular net. The problem has been exacerbated skeptics (“There is almost no way to ideas and to challenge students. But there is by the fact that “science shows on cable write about them without sounding also “academic judgment,” she insisted. TV have gotten a lot worse.” assuming heartless”), bogus consumer products, “The issues are quite profound.” short attention spans, the trend now, and emotional appeals. You’d think it’d The SKEPTICAl INQUIRER plans a future article even on mainstream channels, is to be all tire Hill out. But she’s still enthusi- on how nonscientific concepts are making their “hyper-exciting,” with explosions, im- astic. “I’m pretty dedicated to not way into the education of physicians. —K.F. pacts, and so on every ninety seconds. missing something good.” The conspiracy meme doesn’t Scott O. Lilienfeld had the “honor” help, says Morrison. “People afraid of of being the conference’s final speaker, the government in one area have but he performed his task so well no spread it to every topic.” one’s interest wavered. “It has been an

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amazing conference,” he said. He dedi- cated his talk to CSI founder Paul Gender Issues in Science: Kurtz, who, Lilienfeld observed, “was What’s Different, What’s Not? always respectful and gentlemanly.” Lilienfeld, a psychologist and mem- Gender issues continue to gain attention Richard re garding psychological differ- ber of the CSI Executive Council, and generate controversy. Good science, ences.” But she said many sex differences spoke on “The Great Myths of Popular critical inquiry, and clear thinking all can have flipped over in the past decade or two. Psychology.” He noted that “even for help illuminate, not exacerbate, the issues. “The problem is stereotypes.” She cau- our brightest students, it’s a confusing A morning session on gender issues ex- tioned against “taking snapshots that as- world out there.” The pop psychology plored the degree to which psychological sume differences at any time tell us about industry perpetuates myths, and no one differences between the sexes exist and to fundamental­differences.” Another caution is immune. For instance, 77 percent of what degree they are hardwired or the re- is that in surveys “what people say has little his students begin by believing that sult of culture. to do with how they behave.... You don’t schizophrenics have “multiple person- Richard lippa of California State Uni- see the major differences when you look at alities,” 63 percent think memory is like versity, Fullerton, offered a thought ful exam- behavior.” a video camera, 47 percent say memo- ination of Janet Hyde’s argument that there ries don’t change, and 61 percent think are not that many differences. He first hypnosis is useful in solving crimes. looked at psychological differences. In the Many sex This “naïve realism—the belief that the dimensions of agreeableness and neuroti- differences have world is exactly as we see it”—is exem- cism, women tend to be more highly repre- plified by the belief that eyewitness ob- sented. In the domain of mental illness, flipped over in servation is always correct and in the males tend to have such disorders as the past decade often-heard (and often exactly wrong) autism, mental retardation, reading disor- phrases “seeing is believing” and “I ders, and Tourette’s syndrome, while or two. know what I saw.” women experience more depression by a Lilienfeld ranged over a variety of 2:1 ratio and also tend to have more bipo- lar, panic, and conversion disorders. Among examples of selective perception and As an example, she said if you define personality disorders, males tend much aggression as “intention to harm,” you don’t memory, including illusory correlations more than females to be antisocial or so- see sex differences. “We just express it in (such as the repeatedly debunked idea ciopaths. “So there are big differences in different ways. ... Women are likely to ru- that psychiatric admissions increase psychology,” he said. minate more than men.” As for brain differ- during the full moon) where “our brains As for overall intelligence, any differ- ences, there are indeed many anatomical are making the correlation.” He ended ences are small. One area where differ- and activity differences in men/women by bringing up the troubling implica- ences are big is along the people-things di- brains, but it all comes down to “so what?” tions of some recent research. Debunk- mension. Men tend always to be more She pointed to three general problems with ing can be effective, these studies show, interested in things-oriented occupations, generalizing about brain differences: There but it can also have backfire effects, re- women in people-oriented occupations, is no correlation with behavior, brains are inforcing beliefs instead of disabusing and studies show that holds true over fifty- complex, and each brain is unique. people of them. “We need more than three nations. As for social behaviors, men What is the future of sex differences, debunking; we need alternative ac- tend to be more aggressive (10:1 male: fe- and where are we going from here? Tavris counts. ... Spend more time telling male ratio of murderers). summarized things this way. A lot in society what’s true, not what’s false.” Overall, between men and women, he is changing. It’s women who are getting the It was good advice and a fine way to said studies show that some differences educations. We are seeing huge differ- end a memorable conference. are small, some differences are moderate, ences in economic status. Women are now The next CSICon will be at the and some differences are large. earning more, getting better educated, and same time next year (October 24–27, Psychologist Carol Tavris (author of such getting better jobs, so many are delaying 2013) in Seattle/Tacoma. It will be a books as The­Mismeasure­of­Women) next marriage. “The whole planet is becoming joint “Summit” conference of the Com- took the stage. “That was a terrific talk,” she Sweden,” is how she put it. Changes are mittee for Skeptical Inquiry and the said of lippa’s presentation. “I have no dif- being caused by the global economy and Council for , with a ferences with it. So I’m going to leave now!” circumstances. distinct skeptic track. See early an- The audience laughed. She proceeded. A memorable moment came when a She called for perspective (“either/ man in the audience concerned about how nouncement on our back cover. or thinking is not going to get us anywhere”) to think about gender differences asked Kendrick Frazier is a member of the CSI Exec- and a sense of history. She noted that Tavris for advice about raising his daughter. utive Council and editor of the SKEPTICAL INqUIRER. women have come a long way since 1960. She replied succinctly: “Enjoy the ones that She reiterated, “I completely agree with matter, ignore the rest.” —K.F.­

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[ INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL Joe Nickell, PhD, is CSI’s senior research fellow and author or coauthor of such books as Tracking the Man-Beasts, Entities, and Lake Monster Mysteries.

Scotland Mysteries—Part I: The Silly Ness Monster

ollowing the excellent skeptics’ creature but in fact proving to have swim across the River Ness to retrieve conference, qED (“question. been a hoax made by photographing a a boat, when he was approached by the FExplore. Discover.”), in Manches- small model (Nickell 1995, 242). monster. e future saint quickly ter, England, March 10–11, 2012— Now, it is not true that Loch Ness is “formed the sign of the cross in the where I was the closing speaker and a unique among Scottish lakes, or even empty air” and commanded the crea- panelist—I went on an nearly so, in having a resident monster. ture to go back, whereupon it fled. at investigative jaunt with British skeptic Whereas one writer claims there are is a saint’s legend—one of a genre of and investigator Hayley Stevens and only two others in Scotland, Loch narratives that are intended to demon- her father andy, who is a photographer Morar and Loch Tay, Ronald Binns strate the power of God and that are and professional driver and guide. Here (1984, 183n) observes that there are notoriously incredible. Moreover, the I focus on the Scotland portion of our “not three but dozens of ‘Lochs na account was written circa 700 CE, well tour, beginning with the enduring case Beiste,’” including one we had lunch over a century after the events they pur- of the . beside, Loch Lomond. admittedly that port to describe (Shine 2006, 6; Coul- lake has little monster tradition, consis- son 1958, 134). The Lair tent with the statement of a gentleman Many Scottish legends tell of kelpies Located in the Scottish Highlands, and we encountered there; he announced or water-horses, supernatural water stretching for almost twenty-three emphatically that there was “no mon- creatures that prey on humans. “eir miles, is a narrow, trench-like basin, 227 ster.” He is probably correct, although trick,” states Stuart McHardy, in his meters in depth at its deepest point, some locals speak of “Lomonda” who Tales of Loch Ness (2009, 52), “was to ap- holding the greatest volume of fresh never caught on (“Balloch and Loch pear as a wandering horse and induce water in all of Britain. is is the Lomond” 2006). Loch Ness is of course one or more humans to climb on their world’s most famous lake, Loch Ness, a different story. backs. en they would make straight for their watery home and dive in, their supernatural powers keeping the hu- mans on their backs as if glued.” (See When I wondered aloud whether rifles would be also Leach 1984, 573.) Today, kelpies are relegated to the available to Nessie hunters, a boat hand quickly distant past, but as recently as July 1, 1853, the Inverness Courier reported the answered that, no, harpoons would be issued sighting of two strange animals. Some “when needed.” thought a single sea serpent was coiled at the surface, while others suspected a pair of whales or large seals. (e sight- ing was at Lochend, a village near the sea-connected northeastern end of the home to the world’s most famous—and Water Kelpies lake, where such animals might make least terrifying—legendary lake mon- e earliest recorded encounter with their way.) However, on seeing the ster. “Nessie” is best known from a 1934 Nessie is told in e Life of St. Columba. creatures, a “venerable patriarch” threw photograph, showing it as a long- Supposedly Columba (a Christian mis- down his gun, shouting, “God protect necked, small-headed, plesiosaur-like sionary, 521–597 CE) sent a man to us; they are the Water Horses.” He was

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Figure 1. A composite iconographic portrait of Nessie—a metamorphosing, contortionistic, chameleonlike crea- ture, or the product of various monster lookalikes and misperceptions. (Illustration by Joe Nickell)

partly right: they turned out to be dead-panned that we would have better ponies that had wandered from an es- luck hunting Nessie on land—meaning tate more than a mile distant (Shine where the toy creatures are sold. and on 2006, 6). the boat itself, when I wondered aloud Looking back, it is easy to see that whether rifles would be available to any of several creatures might have Nessie hunters, a boat hand quickly an- given rise to water-horse sightings—in swered that, no, harpoons would be is- addition, of course, to actual horses and sued “when needed.” ponies! Other possibilities are the oc- More seriously, we made several in- casional swimming roe deer, which lack quiries. an information officer in In- true antlers but instead have short dou- verness told us she had seen seals in the ble-pronged horns (Binns 1984, 191– River Ness, which passes through the 93), and the sturgeon, with its long city, linking the loch with the North muzzle. Says naturalist adrian Shine Sea. Seals are among the monster Figure 2. Investigator Hayley Stevens monitors sonar (2006, 28), “If ever a fish had a horse’s lookalikes that are endemic either to scans aboard an excursion boat on Loch Ness. (Photo by Joe Nickell) head it would certainly be the Stur- the Loch or its environs. although the geon.” sturgeon is now almost extinct in Scot- sterlike look (Binns 1984, 186–91). is tish waters, one could have occasionally is especially so when two or more are Rounding Up Suspects entered the loch to become, say, the swimming in line, as they do because On our four-day excursion to Loch “huge fish” of 1882. additional poten- they enjoy “chasing each other” and Ness, we found the locals to be quite tial “monsters” are salmon and other “following the leader” (Godin 1983). playful regarding the “monster.” For ex- fish, swimming deer, long-necked water ey can thus appear as a single long- ample, at the Glen Ord distillery where birds, bobbing logs, boat wakes, wind necked, multi-humped creature. is il- I told a tour guide we had come to the slicks, and more (Shine 2006). lusion was observed as early as 1930 in area to hunt Nessie, the woman en there is the large European the Scottish river Clyde, and it has quipped that we were quite right to otter (Lutra lutra). Otters resemble since been confirmed elsewhere (Gould make a distillery our “first stop.” In seals, and both are able to appear on 1934, 115–17; Nickell 2007, 6–7). (It is booking passage on a sonar-equipped land. However, otters also appear in the basis for a delightful children’s tale boat to tour the loch, I asked if this rivers and lakes that are not accessible titled “Otterly Impossible.” e story is were where we got our hunting license to seals. e otter’s long neck and un- in Fairy Tales Fairly Told by Barbara for the monster, to which a ticket seller dulating movements can give it a mon- Mervine, with illustrations by Noah

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Whippie, a foreward by James Randi, ceived, a wonderful science museum Tapes Series), was my time spent sur- and inspiration for the Ness tale cred- disguised as a Nessie exhibit. It teaches veying the loch’s waters, especially near ited to yours truly.) continental drift, evolution, perception, urquhart Castle, the location of many and a number of other scientific matters sightings. Our boat crossed the loch Iconography while skeptically—but tactfully—dis- from the opposite shore to the castle e iconography (or study of images) cussing the famous monster. Shine’s and back, while Hayley and I alternated of the Loch Ness Monster is illuminat- book Loch Ness supplements the tour between searching the waters and mon- ing. From St. Columba’s “Water with fascinating data and pictures—in- Beast”—with “gaping mouth and with cluding one that remarkably recreates itoring sonar scans (see Figure 2). alas, great roaring”—and Scottish folklore’s the previously mentioned 1934 hoaxed as so often is the case, Nessie was a no- n horse-headed kelpie, to the plesiosaur- photo (2006, 11). show. like creature of the 1934 hoax photo, We also arranged to meet Steve the monster has continued to evolve. It Feltham, who has a little trailer on the (“Part II: Ghosts, Fairies, and Witches” has since been described as six to 125 loch at the village of Dores (near the will appear in the next SI.) feet in length; shaped like a great eel of inn, which serves delicious haggis). e a creature with up to nine humps; col- world’s only full-time Loch Ness Mon- Acknowledgments ored silver, gray, blue-black, black, or ster hunter, Feltham is the most inter- In addition to those mentioned in the brown; and endowed—or not—with esting Ness creature I encountered. text, I am grateful to everyone who flippers, fins, mane, horns, or tusks Having lived on the Loch since 1991, helped make this Scottish “investigative (Binns 1984; Gould 1934). he supports himself by selling whimsi- travelogue” come to be, including all the wonderful qED folk, especially Rick Owen and Michael Marshall, and at CFI, Michelle Blackley, Ed Beck, and our librarian Tim Binga. Special thanks to John and Mary Frantz for their gen- The world’s only full-time Loch Ness Monster erous financial contributions to my hunter, Steve Feltham is the most interesting work. Ness creature I encountered. References Balloch and Loch Lomond. 2006. Online at www.fermentmagazine.org/Scotland2/scot4. html; accessed September 11, 2012. Binns, Ronald. 1984. e Loch Ness Mystery Solved. amherst, NY: . Coulson, John, ed. 1958. e Saints: A Concise Bi- No doubt the extremely diverse de- cal little Nessies (made of polymer clay ographical Dictionary. New York: Hawthorne scriptions are explained by the differ- and baked in his oven), along with Books. Godin, alfred J. 1983. Wild Mammals of New ences in Nessie lookalikes—as well as driftwood art and watercolor paintings. England. Chester, CT: Globe Pequot Press. the vagaries of eyewitness evidence. e an intelligent, thoughtful man, Felt - Gould, Rupert T. 1934. e Loch Ness Monster and infamous 1934 hoaxed photo obviously ham is no knee-jerk believer, having Others. Reprinted Secaucus, NJ: Citadel Press, did much to influence the developing many times explained a tourist’s sight- 1976. portrait, although paleontologists have ing as, for instance, a boat wake’s de- Leach, Maria, ed. 1984. & Wagnall’s Stan- dard Dictionary of Folklore, Mythology and since postulated that plesiosaurs were layed arrival. Most recently he branded Legend. New York: Harper & Row. unable to raise their long necks (Shine a photo of Nessie a hoax (involving a Loch Ness Monster photograph branded a hoax 2006, 11). In Figure 1, I have com- fake fiberglass hump used to film a Na- by Nessie enthusiast. 2012. Online at pressed the iconography of Nessie into tional Geographic documentary [“Loch http://news.stv.tv/highlands-islands/186792- a single humorous image that, I trust, Ness” 2012]). He told us that even if loch-ness-monster-photograph-branded-a- hoax-by-nessie-enthusiast/; accessed Septem- makes an effective point. there were no monster legend, he would ber 23, 2012. still have his beachcomber life— “only McHardy, Stuart. 2009. Tales of Loch Ness. Edin- Nessie Hunters in a warmer place!” burg: Luath Press. at the Loch Ness Exhibition Centre in a highlight of the trip, and of my Nickell, Joe. 1995. Entities. amherst, NY: Drumnadrochit, we received the gener- years of work as a skeptical cryptozool- Prometheus Books. ———. 2007. Adventures in Paranormal Investi- ous attention of adrian Shine, the ven- ogist (with many appearances as such gation. Lexington: university Press of Ken- erable naturalist and Loch Ness expert, on TV series like National Geo- tucky. who has been a Nessie hunter since graphic’s Is It Real?, History Channel’s Shine, adrian. 2006. Loch Ness. Drumnadrochit, 1973. e Centre is brilliantly con- MonsterQuest, and animal Planet’s Lost Scotland: Loch Ness Project.

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[THINKING ABOUT SCIENCE MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI Massimo Pigliucci is professor of philosophy at the City University of New York, a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and author of Answers for Aristotle: How Science and Philosophy Can Lead Us to A More Meaningful Life. His essays can be found at rationallyspeaking.org.

The Proper Role of Sociology of Science

his semester I have been teaching you can spot the problem. It’s number ber one above). If so, then scientists be- a graduate class on the so-called three, the clause about symmetrical ex- lieve in an old Earth because the best T“science wars” of the 1990s and planations. To see why, consider the evidence available to us points to the early 2000s, and in particular on the case in which we are trying to explain truth of that belief. On the contrary, the differences between philosophy of sci- why young-Earth creationism is a fa- fact that a large section of the american ence and so-called “science studies” (a vorite position among the american public believes in a young Earth is epis- somewhat heterogeneous ensemble of public, contrasting it with why the sci- temically anomalous (i.e., it doesn’t have sociology of science, feminist episte- entific community at large thinks in- rational standing based on evidence), mology, social criticism, deconstruc- stead that Earth is billions of years old. and it is therefore likely to have socio- tionism, and a few other things). My at- as a philosopher of science, I would logical (and psychological) explana- tention has therefore been drawn back to the fundamental tenets of the “strong programme” in the sociology of scientific knowledge, also known as SSK. One of its founders, David Bloor, summarized them as follows: The fact that a large section of the American 1. [e program] would be causal, that is, concerned with the public believes in a young Earth is epistemically conditions which bring about be- anomalous (i.e., it doesn’t have rational standing lief or states of knowledge. Nat- urally there would be other types based on evidence), and it is therefore likely to have of causes apart from social ones which will cooperate in bringing sociological (and psychological) explanations. about belief. 2. It would be impartial with respect to truth and falsity, ration- ality or irrationality, success or failure. Both sides of these di- chotomies will require explana- want to invoke an asymmetry in the tions, for instance of the type traced by tion. two cases: the first is an instance of sociologist Richard Hofstadter in his 3. It would be symmetrical in its pseudoscience, the second of actual sci- 1964 classic, Anti-Intellectualism in style of explanation. e same ence. e first belief is—to the best of American Life. types of causes would explain, say, our knowledge and abilities—wrong, is sensible solution is precluded to true and false beliefs. while the second one is at least approx- the SSK approach by the symmetry imately correct. You would think that clause. e idea is further explained by 4. It would be reflexive. In prin- part of the explanation for the differ- sociologist Trevor Pinch: “We ask not ciple its patterns of explanation ence between the two beliefs has to do why science is more true than other ac- would have to be applicable to with the truth of the latter and the fal- counts of the world . . . but rather how sociology itself. sity of the former (in agreement, inci- do scientists reach agreement about Go ahead, re-read the list and see if dentally, with the second part of num- what counts as truth.” ahem, yes—but

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shouldn’t (approximate, provisional) sociologists are typically in no position untrue beliefs for nonrational reasons, truth figure somewhere into that ac- (as in fact acknowledged on several oc- and sometimes do so for decades (just count? No, says Pinch, because “We try casions by both Bloor and Pinch) to ad- think of , or Piltdown man). In to avoid explaining the emergence of judicate disputes in natural science. those cases science and philosophy of truth by reference to its truthfulness be- at’s the job of the natural scientists science can point out why such beliefs cause such explanations are circular.” themselves, as well as the meta-job, so were epistemically unwarranted but Now, avoiding circularity is a com- to speak, of philosophers of science (in cannot explain why they were held, at mendable goal, most certainly in line their role of epistemologists). e scope times widely, nonetheless. at explana- with anything a reasonable philosopher of sociology, then, would be limited to tion becomes then the province of psy- would suggest. But if you go back to the the (partial) explanation of why some chology (for individual beliefs) and so- quotes above you may notice a sleight of people happen to believe things that are ciology (for socially widespread beliefs). hand: Bloor’s goal (shared by Pinch) is not true. apparently, this respectable e resulting picture is one where nat- to explain belief, not truth. If so, then and indeed useful contribution of soci- ural scientists, philosophers, psycholo- there is no circularity at all involved in ology is not enough for proponents of gists, and sociologists work together to explaining some beliefs by invoking SSK, who wish to arrogate for them- provide a full account of both true and their (likely) truth, and indeed in distin- selves a much broader role, one that untrue (or, to be more precise, warranted guishing them from other beliefs on the they cannot justify other than by invok- and unwarranted) human beliefs. Can’t basis that the latter are (likely) untrue. ing the symmetry postulate, thus be- we all just get along? n Why wouldn’t proponents of the SSK coming the lightning for the scorn adopt this time honored and eminently of scientists and philosophers of science References: commonsensical approach to belief for- alike. (and, I would hope, of skeptics!) Bloor, D. 1991. Knowledge and Social Imagery. mation, then? None of the above argues for not university of Chicago Press. Because they would have much less doing sociology of science, of course. Pinch, T. 2001. Does science studies undermine science? In e One Culture? A Conversation to say about scientific knowledge, the Scientists themselves—either individu- about Science. Ed. by J.a. Labinger and H. most prized of their targets. after all, ally or as a group—sometimes do hold Collins. university of Chicago Press.

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[ PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ROBERT SHEAFFER Sheaffer's “Psychic Vibrations” column has appeared in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER for more than thirty years; its high- lights have now been published as a book (Create Space 2011). Sheaffer at www.BadUFOs.com, and his website is www.debunker.com.

UFOs Infest Denver, Says Fox TV Affiliate

ome critics have long accused Fox News and its affiliates of practic- Sing tabloid journalism. e Fox affiliate in Denver, KDVR, seems de- termined to prove them correct. On November 8, they broadcast a video of an ill-defined, very fast-moving object that they described as a “mile high mys- tery,” proclaiming, “nobody can explain what it is” (http://tinyurl.com/KDVR fly). ere’s only one problem: is “uFO” is obviously an insect—proba- bly a fly. KDVR received some supposed “uFO” videos from a man who does not want to be identified, which to any seasoned reporter should immediately case of other fly uFO videos, we are not bug.” Perhaps you should investigate raise a red flag. e videos were taken shown the entire, unedited video. If we that possibility? But no, an “expert” has on a hilltop in Federal Heights, at 84th were, it would very likely be obvious spoken, and Hemmat would never ave. and Federal Blvd., looking south how small the object is when it is seen question that. If I had a nickel for every toward downtown Denver. e “uFOs” clearly against the nearby ground. time some “expert” said something idi- appear at least several times a week, we e “investigative reporter” Heidi otic about uFOs, I’d be rich. are told, usually around noon to 1 PM Hemmat contacted an aviation expert, KDVR sent its own cameraman to (perhaps not coincidentally, around the Steve Cowell, who is described as “a the spot, and he, too, photographed at warmest part of the day when most fly- former commercial pilot, instructor and least one fly. is was taken as confir- ing insects become more active). e Faa accident prevention counselor.” mation that mysterious uFOs are in- anonymous photographer, who has as far as I can tell, these qualifications deed buzzing around Denver on a reg- been filming these objects for months, have nothing to do with optics, video ular basis. is story is a serious believes that the uFOs are being photography, still photography, insects, contender for the stupidest news report “launched” from someplace around or, for that matter, uFOs. Cowell pro- of 2012, although there is a lot of stiff 56th ave. and Clay St. in Denver, claimed, rather self-evidently, that the competition for that honor. CNN and which is a residential area. object was no kind of aircraft, helicop- other news outlets soon picked up the e “uFO” is said to be flying too ter, or bird. Hemmat said that Cowell story as well. fast to be seen by the naked eye, and it’s also proclaimed that it wasn’t an insect, Obviously delighted by all the atten- necessary to slow down the video. e although he later disputed this. e tion its tabloid story received, on No- object is seen to dive down toward the Faa and NORaD were consulted, vember 20 KDVR did a second report ground, between the ground and the and both reported that there was no air on the fly uFO (http://tinyurl.com/ camera (for example, at 1:29 into the traffic in that area. “and it’s not a bug,” KDVRfly2). is time they consulted video; also at 1:40 and 2:40). as in the said Hemmat, “people keep saying it’s a an entomologist, Mary ann Hamilton,

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best known as an expert on butterflies. to pronounce the identity of the object (DSJ) and Melbourne Flight Services after watching the video, she said, “I do unknowable, a controversy at the (FS; Robey) are as follows (from Wiki - not believe it’s an insect. e shape is fringes of scientific knowledge: “Each pedia): inconsistent with an insect.” She does of us can form our own opinions about 19:06:14 DSJ: Melbourne, this is not say whether she is familiar with something that science cannot deter- Delta Sierra Juliet. Is there any still-frame video representations of mine, or we can simply accept that we out-of-focus moving objects. Mean- will likely never know.” absurd! is is known traffic below five thou- while, skeptics from the Rocky Moun- not rocket science—the object is just a sand? tain Paranormal Research Society went fly, and it turns up on other videos FS: Delta Sierra Juliet, no known to the supposed uFO spot and found taken at the same spot! traffic. plenty of people already sitting there, at least Kean did finally throw in DSJ: Delta Sierra Juliet, I am, looking for uFOs themselves! ey set the towel October 17 on Facebook con- seems to be a large aircraft below up a video camera and recorded fly cerning the now-confessed Belgian five thousand. uFOs too. One uFO even flew be- hoax photo from Petit-Rechain (see 19:06:44 FS: Delta Sierra Juliet, What type of aircraft is it? DSJ: Delta Sierra Juliet, I cannot affirm, it is four bright, and it This is not rocket science—the object is seems to me like landing lights… 19:08:48 DSJ: Delta Sierra Juliet, just a fly, and it turns up on other videos it seems to me that he’s playing taken at the same spot! some sort of game, he’s flying over me two, three times at speeds I could not identify. FS: Delta Sierra Juliet, roger, what is your actual level? DSJ: My level is four and a half thousand, four five zero zero… tween the camera and a cardboard this column, SI, January/February 19:10:19 DSJ: Delta Sierra Juliet, screen they had set up about ten feet 2012). Touted as solid uFO evidence Melbourne, it seems like it’s away (http://tinyurl.com/bpoq44v). in her book UFOs: Generals, Pilots and chasing me. What I’m doing at’s a tiny uFO indeed! Government Officials Go On the Record, right now is orbiting and the uFO author Leslie Kean noted on she concedes, “Yes, this photo seems to thing is just orbiting on top of me her Facebook page, “e object in these be a fake, unfortunately. Belgian re- also. It’s got a green light and sort [KDVR] videos looks like the one from searchers have looked into it. I have to of metallic like, it’s all shiny on Chile at the El Bosque aF Base.” is update this in my book.” Well, I guess the outside… is the Chilean fly uFO video she has that’s a step in the right direction. ere FS: Delta Sierra Juliet, is the air- been promoting as being perhaps “the are still a few dozen other uFO cases craft still with you? case uFO skeptics have been dreading” in her book that need to be acknowl- (see this column, SI, July/august 2012). edged as mistakes or as hoaxes, but then DSJ: Delta Sierra Juliet; it’s (open It started a huge controversy as even she wouldn’t have much of a book left. microphone for two seconds) many uFO proponents argued it was * * * now approaching from the just a bug. It only took months of ere are new developments in the fa- south-west. analysis and two trips to Chile to meet mous supposedly uFO-related disap- FS: Delta Sierra Juliet with the promoters of the celebrated fly pearance of Fredrick Valentich, a 19:11:50 DSJ: Delta Sierra Juliet, uFO video, the CEFaa, the Chilean twenty-year-old pilot in australia. On the engine is rough-idling. I’ve equivalent of the american Faa, but October 21, 1978, he was piloting a got it set at twenty three twenty- she finally has reached a conclusion: Cessna 182L light aircraft over Bass four and the thing is (cough- there is no conclusion (http://tinyurl Strait. He intended to land at King Is- .com/keanfly2). One uFO “photo ex- land and return to Moorabbin airport. ing)… pert” concluded it was indeed a bug, However, he never made it to King 19:12:28 DSJ: Delta Sierra Juliet. while another concluded it couldn’t Island, 127 miles away. Some of the Melbourne (open microphone possibly be one. Kean is quite content final exchanges between Valentich for seventeen seconds).

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It was Valentich’s first and only night However, he had told his family, we would expect him to crash in about flight over water. Neither Valentich nor girlfriend and acquaintances that 178 seconds. He actually survived 374 his aircraft was ever seen or heard from he intended to pick up crayfish. seconds from the time of his first uFO again. During the accident investiga- report until crashing. Valentich had a at last we have some new informa- tions it was learned there were no “Class Four Instrument Rating,” but we tion on this puzzling case: “adelaide re- passengers waiting to be picked know he was not watching his instru- searcher Keith Basterfield has been fol- up at King Island, he had not or- ments; his eyes were fixed on the lowing the case since the disappearance dered crayfish and could not have “uFO” he was describing. We also learn in 1978, but had been told by the Gov- done so because crayfish were not from Wikipedia that Valentich ernment in 2004 the official file had available anyway. had twice applied to enlist in the been lost or destroyed. He ‘found’ it So clearly Valentich was being evasive Royal australian air Force but when searching through an online Na- about something. His stated explana- was rejected because of inade- tional archives index on an unrelated tions for making his night flight do not quate educational qualifications. topic. e file has since been digitized check out. also, it turns out that Valen- He was a member of the air and uploaded on the archive’s website” tich was a uFO “True Believer,” and Training Corps, determined to (http://tinyurl.com/butdpmv). So we have skeptic Keith Basterfield to thank for the recent government “document dump” that makes this new information available. Basterfield ex- plains that the newly released files re- Also, it turns out that Valentich was a UFO veal that “parts of aircraft wreckage “True Believer,” and hence probably inclined to with partial serial numbers were found in Bass Strait five years after the disap- assume anything is a “UFO” if he could not pearance.” also, one pilot searching at the right time and place saw debris that immediately identify it. appeared to be from a Cessna, but be- fore he could get a good fix on its posi- tion it apparently sank. is makes it extremely likely that Valentich’s aircraft hence probably inclined to assume any- have a career in aviation. His stu- simply crashed into the water in the thing is a “uFO” if he could not imme- dent pilot license was issued 24 darkness. diately identify it. He actually worried February 1977 and his private ere is a nice summary of these about what to do if a uFO attacked pilot license the following Sep- findings in Basterfield’s blog entries of him! tember. Valentich was studying June 28, July 3, and august 24, 2012 Various air safety organizations, in- part-time to become a commer- (http://ufos-scientificresearch.blog cluding the aircraft Owner and Pilots cial pilot but had a poor achieve- spot.co.uk/). You can download the first association, have a pilot education les- ment record, having twice failed set of documents from scribd (http:// son titled 178 Seconds to Live; you can all five commercial license exam- tinyurl.com/c95hmza). From the doc- watch it as a video at http://tinyurl ination subjects, and as recent as uments: .com/178seconds. e title comes from the previous month had failed a number of reports of a fast a study that found (using flight simula- three more commercial license moving brilliant white light were tors, of course) that when non-instru- subjects. He had been involved in received from various parts of the ment rated pilots are placed in situa- flying incidents, straying into a country. Mt Stromlo observatory tions where they cannot see the ground controlled zone in Sydney (for advised that the night of the 21st or the horizon, nearly all of them got which he received a warning) and was the peak of the meteorite into a fatal spiral and crashed, with an twice deliberately flying into stream with 10-15 sightings per average time-to-crash of 178 seconds. cloud (for which prosecution was hour achieved. Watching this video made my blood being considered). run cold, but it’s absolutely realistic. e question of why Valentich took this is is exactly the situation Valen- I would never knowingly get into an somewhat risky night flight is a sepa- tich found himself in when darkness aircraft with a pilot like that—and es- rate matter. according to Wikipedia: fell on that moonless night (as did John pecially not for a night flight over His stated intention was to fly to F. Kennedy Jr. in 1999). assuming that water! We can be quite sure of what King Island in Bass Strait via he became disoriented and thought happened to the incautious Valentich, Cape Otway, to pick up passen- that Venus, or perhaps a meteor, was a even if we cannot say why he made that gers, and return to Moorabbin. uFO—he says it was “orbiting” him— fatal flight.n

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[ THE SCIENCE OF MEDICINE STEVEN NOVELLA Steven Novella, MD, is assistant professor of neurology at Yale School of Medicine, the host of the Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe podcast, author of the NeuroLogica blog, executive editor of the Science-Based Medicine blog, and president of the New England Skeptical Society.

Herbs Are Drugs

erbal supplements are big busi- contain low doses of active ingredients. 2009), and others. Even St. John’s Wort, ness. In the united States alone, Some popular herbal products have which is supposed to be a big herbal H2011 sales of all herbal products been studied in standard placebo-con- remedy win, has been shown to have no were estimated to be $5.3 billion (Blu - trolled trials, and they have generally effect on moderate or severe depression menthal et al. 2012). Meanwhile the in- not fared well. a recent scientific study (although the jury is still out on minor dustry has managed to maintain a published in the Journal of the American depressive symptoms; see Hypericum “mom and pop” image to the public, the Medical Association, for example, looked Depression Trial Study Group 2002). righteous underdog constantly under at the drug silymarin for the treatment Many of these studies were funded attack by Big Pharma. In reality, the of liver disease due to chronic hepatitis by the National Center for Comple- herbal product industry is just another C that has not responded to standard mentary and alternative Medicine drug industry, one selling products that therapy with interferons (Fried et al. (NCCaM). are poorly regulated and likely don’t 2012). Silymarin is an extract of milk Despite this string of negative studies, work for their claimed indications. thistle, an herb commonly used to treat the herbal remedy industry continues to There are already a fair number of liver disease. rake in billions of dollars every year. scientific studies looking at various There have now been large, double- Large, rigorous, and negative studies herbal products for specific indications. blind clinical trials of echinacea and seem to have little impact on the sales of There is nothing inherently implausible cold symptoms (Barret et al. 2002; Tay- herbal products overall (although they about the usefulness of plant-based lor et al. 2003; Turner et al. 2005), may affect the relative popularity of spe- remedies. Many modern drugs are de- Gingko biloba and memory loss or cific herbs to some extent). rived from plants. Plant parts contain alzheimer’s disease (Snitz et al. 2009), To make matters worse, in the many substances, some of which are black cohosh and hot flashes (Newton united States herbal drugs were essen- pharmacologically active and can be ex- et al. 2006), saw palmetto and benign tially deregulated in 1994 by the Di- ploited for medical use. prostatic hypertrophy (Tacklind et al. etary Supplement Health and Educa- The deception inherent to the herb - al product industry, in my opinion, is the notion that herbs are something Here are some useful tips for the potential herbal product user: other than drugs. This is closely tied to the naturalistic fallacy: the idea that a • Don’t be reassured by claims that a product is “natural” substance that is “natural” (a poorly de- • Traditional use, whether genuine or not, is not by itself a fined concept) is somehow magically good predictor of safety or effectiveness safe and effective. In reality, herbs often contain mul- • Find out what the best scientific evidence says, tiple active ingredients that potentially and seek out critical information specifically have drug-like activity in the body. • Respect the fact that herbs are drugs, which means: These drugs are often poorly under- stood, may not even be identified, and • They can cause toxicity and side effects exist in highly variable doses within • They can interact with other drugs you are taking herbal products (Wurglics et al. 2001). • You should inform your physicians about any herbal products Herbs have drug-drug interactions and you are taking (just as you list your prescription medications) the same potential for side effects and toxicity as any drug, mitigated only by the fact that herbal products generally

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tion act (DSHEa). Herbs are now enough, the wrong part of the plant was active ingredient with known pharma- regulated more like food rather than used, the preparation was not correct, or cokinetics and pharmacodynamics as drugs. Further, a special category of the treatment population was wrong in well as drug-drug interactions. health claims, so-called structure func- some way. For echinacea they claimed Herbs are not only drugs, they are a tion claims, was carved out for supple- that the wrong cold viruses were used. mixture of various drugs of unknown ments. Companies can market herbs There is always something they can dose, activity, and interactions, often without any prior approval from the point to. Of course, this logic works with evidence that they do not work. It FDa or need to provide evidence of both ways: if it’s so difficult to find the takes effective marketing to convince safety or effectiveness. They can even right preparation for the right condi- the public this is somehow better than claim that their product supports the tion, then how do they justify selling taking highly purified and studied structure or function of the body in highly variable products to the general pharmaceuticals. n some way, as long as they don’t mention population with broad claims? a specific disease by name. This How are the “traditional” uses of References amounts to a massive loophole easily herbal products derived in the first place? Barrett, B.P., R.L. Brown, K. Locken, et al. 2002. exploited by any savvy marketer. The impression that is often given is that Treatment of the common cold with unre- fined echinacea: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Annals of Internal Medicine 137(12): 939–946. Blumenthal, M., a. Lindstrom, C. Ooyen, et al. 2012. Herb supplement sales increase 4.5% in In reality, the herbal product industry is just 2011. HerbalGram 95: 60–64. Online at http://cms.herbalgram.org/herbalgram/issue another drug industry, one selling products that 95/hg95-mktrpt.html. Fried, M.W., V.J. Navarro, N. afdhal, et al. 2012. Effect of silymarin (milk thistle) on liver dis- are poorly regulated and likely don’t work for ease in patients with chronic hepatitis C un- successfully treated with interferon therapy, a their claimed indications. randomized controlled trial. Journal of the American Medical Association 308(3): 274– 282. doi:10.1001/jama.2012.8265. Hypericum Depression Trial Study Group. 2002. Effect of Hypericum perforatum (St John’s Wort) in major depressive disorder: a ran- The deal that DSHEa and NCC - centuries of successful traditional use is domized controlled trial. Journal of the Amer- aM made with the public was this: Let behind many herbal product claims, but ican Medical Association 287(14): 1807–14. the supplement industry have free reign this is often a modern marketing fiction. Newton, K.M., S.D. Reed, a.z. LaCroix, et al. Treatment of vasomotor symptoms of to market untested products with unsup- It seems reasonable to require man- menopause with black cohosh, multibotani- ported claims, and then we’ll fund reli- ufacturers and marketers of herbal cals, soy, hormone therapy, or placebo: a ran- able studies to arm the public with sci- products to prove that their products domized trial. Annals of Internal Medicine 145(12): 869–79. entific information so they can make are safe and effective for whatever it is Snitz, B.E., E.S. O’Meara, M.C. Carlson, et al. good decisions for themselves. This “ex- they claim they treat. Not only is this 2009. Ginkgo biloba for preventing cognitive periment” (really just a gift to the supple- not required under DSHEa, compa- decline in older adults: a randomized trial. Journal of the American Medical Association ment industry) has been a dismal fail- nies can continue to market their herbs 302(24): 2663–2670. doi:10.1001/jama.2009. ure.The result has been an explosion of with claims that have been contradicted 1913. the supplement industry flooding the by major scientific studies funded by Tacklind, J., R. MacDonald, I. Rutks, et al. 2009. Serenoa repens for benign prostatic hyperplasia. marketplace with useless products and taxpayer dollars. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (april false claims. as with many things, the marketing 15) (2):CD001423. doi: 10.1002/14651858.C Part of the problem is that negative of herbal products is largely based on D001423.pub2. Taylor, J.a., W. Weber, L. Standish, et al. 2003. Ef- studies are too easy to dismiss. In every ideology and a compelling narrative ficacy and safety of echinacea in treating upper case the supplement industry finds rather than actual science and evidence. respiratory tract infections in children: a ran- some reason to minimize the implica- For the most part consumers are left to domized controlled trial. Journal of the American Medical Association 290(21): 2824–2830. tions of the studies showing their prod- their own devices to sort out which Turner, R.B., R. Bauer, K. Woelkart, et al. 2005. ucts do not work, instead preferring to products are likely to be useful. an evaluation of Echinacea angustifolia in cherry pick small and unreliable studies Finally, keep in mind that if an experimental rhinovirus infections. New Eng- land Journal of Medicine 353(4): 341–348. with positive results. No study can pos- herbal product contains a useful active Wurglics, M., K. Westerhoff, a. Kaunzinger, et sibly address every possible permuta- ingredient, it would likely be identified, al. 2001. Comparison of German St. tion of how an herb can be used. purified, and properly studied. The best John’s Wort products according to hyperforin and total hypericin content. Journal of the For example, herbal apologists may result is likely to come from taking a American Pharmaceutical Association (Wash) claim that the dose was not high precisely measured amount of a specific 41(4): 560–66.

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[ SCIENCE WATCH KENNETH W. KRAUSE Kenneth W. Krause is a contributing editor and “Science Watch” columnist for the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. He may be contacted at [email protected].

Innate Morality? Babies Weigh In

n 1762, Rousseau characterized the ing one character’s actions toward an- shape depending on the character with human baby as “a perfect idiot.” In other would affect infants’ attitudes to- which it was paired. Seven of eight babies I1890, William James judged the in- ward that character. in each age group preferred the helper to fant’s mental life to be “one great bloom- When encouraged to reach for either the neutral character and the neutral ing, buzzing confusion.” We’ve learned the helper or the hinderer, twelve of character to the hinderer. Hamlin thus much about early human cognition since twelve six-month-olds and fourteen of inferred that her subjects were fond of the nineteenth century, of course, and the sixteen ten-month-olds chose the helper. those who facilitate others’ goals and dis- current trend is to assign well-expanded But might the babies have responded to approving of those who inhibit them. mental capacities to young children. But superficial perceptual, rather than social, “Humans engage in social evalua- intellectual battles continue to rage, for aspects of the experiment? For example, tion,” the Yale researchers concluded, “far example, over the possibility of an innate perhaps the infants merely preferred up- earlier in development than previously and perhaps nuanced moral sensibility. ward or downward movements. In an at- thought.” e critical human ability to Indeed, psychologists split this past tempt to rule out that possibility, Hamlin distinguish cooperators and reciprocators summer over the question of whether modified a single test condition and from free riders, they agreed, “can be seen pre-verbal infants are capable of evaluat- gathered a second group of children. as a biological adaptation.” ing the social value of others. Back in In experiment two, the object pushed Having viewed recorded portions of 2007, Yale university researchers led by was represented as inanimate. Its googly these experiments, I felt compelled to J. Kiley Hamlin claimed to have demon- eyes were detached and it was never question some of the program’s most strated that infants can morally assess in- made to appear self-propelled. If the in- basic assumptions and methods. Can in- dividuals based on their behavior toward fants had chosen based on mere percep- fants fathom, for instance, what artificial third parties (Hamlin et al. 2007). ose tual events in the first experiment, Ham- landscapes represent, or what “hills” look findings were challenged last august, lin proposed, they should express an like? Can they grasp the symbolic signifi- however, by postdoctoral research fellow analogous preference for the upward- cance of squares, triangles, and circles Damian Scarf and his colleagues from pushing character in the second. But that adorned with “googly eyes”? the university of Otago in New zealand didn’t happen. Only four of twelve six- although groundbreaking in its own (Scarf et al. 2012). month-olds and six of twelve ten- right, Hamlin assured me that her 2007 Hamlin’s pioneering study deployed month-olds picked the upward-pushing study was built on a solid foundation of three experiments on six- and ten-month- shape. previous experiments employing both a old babies to test her team’s hypothesis So the team decided that three possi- hill and a helping/hindering paradigm. that social evaluation is a universal and bilities remained. e infants might pos- Numerous analyses, she insisted, have unlearned biological adaptation. In all tri- itively evaluate helpers, negatively evalu- shown that infants will interpret even als, infants observed characters shaped like ate hinderers, or both. To determine two-dimensional animations as real, and circles and either squares or triangles mov- which, Hamlin assembled a third group often attribute goals and intentions to ing two-dimensionally in a scene involv- of children, reattached the googly eyes, basic shapes engaging in apparently self- ing an artificial hill. Parents held their and altered the experimental design to propelled movement—with or without children during the program but were in- include a neutral character that would artificial eyes. structed not to interfere. never interact with the climber. I also wondered how the infants were In experiment one, the characters In the final experiment, children first “encouraged” to choose. In the video, were endowed with large “googly eyes” observed either a helper or a hinderer in- characters were shaken by the person and made to either climb the hill, hinder teract with a climber as in experiment holding them. Could that have affected the climber from above, or help the one. ereafter, they witnessed a neutral, the outcome, perhaps combined with climber from below. With looking times non-interactive character that moved up- verbal inflection? Was one character ever carefully measured, the infants observed hill or downhill in the same way. held closer to an infant than the other, or alternating helping and hindering trials. When prompted to choose, infants at least closer to the infant’s dominant e question here was whether witness- reacted differently toward the neutral hand?

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Her presenting colleagues, Hamlin involving forty-eight ten-month-olds— Invoking Darwin, Scarf claimed to answered, were always blind to the con- the team would manipulate whether the add momentum to a movement in devel- dition—i.e., ignorant of which character climber bounced during help trials (at opmental psychology toward more par- was helper or hinderer for that particular the top), hinder trials (at the bottom), or simonious interpretations of infant be- baby. So, if differences in proximity or both. ey would then present the chil- havior. ere is much “grandeur in the emphasis existed, their effects would have dren with a choice between hinderers view,” he philosophized, that complex been divided randomly across subjects. and helpers. again, Scarf proposed, if in- adult cognitive abilities can be discovered also, she noted, parents were instructed fants choose based on social evaluation, through a more sober comprehension of to close their eyes during choice phases. they should select the helper universally. “these simple beginnings.” Scarf responded quite differently. He But if driven by simple association in- On august 9, 2012, Hamlin—now at sees no reason to believe, for example, stead, they should select whatever char- the university of — that six- and ten-month-olds would in- acter was present in the trials when posted her team’s unyielding response. terpret Hamlin-esque displays as land- bouncing occurred, and show no prefer- Generally, they found Scarf ’s account scapes, or that they would be familiar ence in the bounce-at-both-top-and- “unpromising,” and were “bemused” by with the concept of a hill. Nor could they bottom condition. the New zealanders’ attempt to recruit distinguish between helping and hinder- e results were striking. In the first Darwin—who “wrote extensively about ing, he argued. and while infants may at- experiment, seven of eight children chose the powers (and the limits) of our inborn tribute intentions and goals to animate the neutral character over the colliding moral sense”—to their cause. Hamlin objects, he added, no convincing data and non-bouncing helper. In the second criticized Scarf ’s experimental design as suggests they might assign relevant feel- experiment, twelve of sixteen picked the well, and his failure to adequately address ings to them as well. helper in the bounce-at-the-top condi- results she had obtained and published Five years passed before Scarf ’s team tion, another twelve of sixteen opted for after 2007. would offer a conflicting explanation— the “simple association hypothesis”—for the infants’ remarkable behavior. While inspecting Hamlin’s videos, Scarf distin- guished “two conspicuous perceptual events” during the helper/hinderer trials: Can infants fathom, for instance, first, an “aversive collision” between the climber and either the helper or the hin- what artificial landscapes represent, or what derer, and second, a “positive bouncing” “hills” look like? Can they grasp the symbolic when the climber and helper reached the hill’s summit. significance of squares, triangles, and circles Rather than rendering complex social evaluations, Scarf proposed, Hamlin’s ba- adorned with “googly eyes”? bies may have simply been reacting to a visual commotion. e hinderer was per- ceived negatively, he hypothesized, be- cause it was associated only with an aver- sive collision. e helper, by contrast, was viewed more positively because it was the hinderer in the bounce-at-the-bot- By Hamlin’s lights, Scarf’s stimuli had linked with an optimistic bouncing in tom condition, and an equal number differed from her own in ways that left addition to a collision. (eight of sixteen) chose the helper and the climber’s goal—and thus the insinu- To test their suspicions, the New hinderer in the bounce-at-both condi- ation of being helped or hindered—un- zealanders devised two experiments. In tion. clear. First, the googly eyes attached to the first, eight ten-month-olds would be us, Scarf resolved, simple associa- Scarf ’s climber were not fixed in an up- presented with googly eyed characters on tion can explain Hamlin’s 2007 results ward gaze. Second, Scarf ’s climber a Hamlin-esque stage. Scarf would elim- without resorting to the comparatively moved less organically, as if able to climb inate the climber’s bounce on help trials complicated notion of an innate moral easily without the helper’s assistance. and then pair the helper with a neutral compass. In fact, he continued, his Hamlin also emphasized that she had character. If infants choose based on so- results were entirely inconsistent with replicated the 2007 results in studies in- cial evaluation, he reasoned, they should Hamlin’s core conclusions. Infants do not volving no climbing, colliding, or bounc- select the helper. But if infants find the perceive collisions between hinderers and ing whatsoever. In 2011, for instance, she helper/climber collision aversive and climbers as qualitatively different from found that infants prefer characters who react instead via simple association, they those between helpers and climb ers, and return balls to others who drop them should pick the neutral character. they do not prefer helpers regardless of In the second experiment—this time bounce condition. (Continued on page 52)

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[SKEPTICAL INQUIREE BENJAMIN RADFORD Benjamin Radford is a research fellow at the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and author or coauthor of six books, including Tracking the : The Vampire Beast in Fact, Fiction, and Folklore.

Lessons from a Denver Fly

What’s your take on the recent Denver UFO video? : Any lessons for skeptics? Q —R. Miller

an unusual video of mys- the logical reasons why what was seen important jobs they’re doing, to spend terious dark objects mov- in the film was likely an insect instead an unpaid afternoon in a cold, empty ing very quickly and errat- of, for example, an extraterrestrial space- field waiting for an insect to fly by? Of : ically over the skies of craft. course if a scientist wants to conduct Denver, , caused a such an experiment or investigation, A national stir in November Ask the Experts their participation would be welcome 2012. an anonymous uFO buff One person asked me, “any chance that and useful. Suggesting that scientists showed KDVR Fox News reporter a real scientist can get some real high should look into these sorts of mysteries Heidi Hemmat home videos he had speed footage of that thing? The cam- is a great idea in theory, but in the real filmed from an open field during the eras and lenses certainly are available, world most working scientists cannot past summer of “strange objects . . . no- and it might actually be able to capture simply take a day or more off work to in- body can explain.” a clear image.” This sentiment was vestigate a uFO video—especially in Robert Sheaffer is covering the sub- echoed by others, and seems like com- cases like this where the explanation is ject in this issue, and interested readers mon sense. The problem is that, as a pretty clear to everyone except uFO be- should see his column for a detailed dis- practical matter, few if any “real scien- lievers and TV reporters. cussion. This case holds some interest- tists” are eager to spend their time on This is where skeptical investigation ing real-world lessons about skepticism, this, especially those outside of Denver. comes in—almost always by non-scien- credulity, journalism, and uFO believ- Most probably have better things to do tists such as Joe Nickell, Robert Sheaf- ers. I got involved in this case when I (such as holiday shopping, work, etc.) fer, Jim underdown, me, and others. was asked by the Discovery Channel to than to gather cameras, tripods, and understanding critical thinking and research the case and write about it in a other gear, locate the field in Denver, how science works is far less important column for Discovery News (Radford and videotape what are almost certainly than having an advanced degree in sci- 2012). The piece elicited interesting insects. Preparing and executing this ence or being a working scientist. comments from readers. experiment could take several days of Several complained that other skep- work for little benefit. It’s not that the Recreating the Video tics and I had claimed to have solved the scientific community is ignoring or dis- This raises a second investigative ques- mystery without having done any inves- missing it, as is often claimed. tion: What is the value in a scientist or tigation. In fact I never claimed to have Believers in paranormal phenomena skeptical investigator going to the site investigated (or definitively solved) the often say things like, “Scientists should with cameras? The videos had been Denver uFO video. Having had inves- come investigate” a given uFO or Big- shot months earlier, and by the time the tigation experience with in sects being foot or ghost sighting. Which working story aired many of the bugs and insects mistaken for ghosts and uFOs, I merely scientists, exactly, should take time off were no longer active in Denver. There’s provided some expert skeptical analysis their jobs in cancer research, developing little point in trying to replicate a video and context to the claims, pointing out new energy technologies, or whatever unless you can do it under identical (or

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very similar) conditions. The context tive explanations. How you understand not be: “That is not an airplane, that is and environment at play on a summer and approach a mystery dictates how not a helicopter, those are not birds,” he afternoon is not the same as it would be you will investigate it. The reporter ac- said. In an on-air voice-over, Hemmat on a winter night. In any event, dozens cepted the uFO buff ’s interpretation of also stated that Cowell was certain the of locals—as well as several Denver- the flying objects as being large and objects were not bugs. area skeptics, including those from the high above the city, so that’s how the Thus, contrary to the popular view of Rocky Mountain Paranormal Soci- mystery was framed, and that guided skeptical debunkers closed-mindedly ety—visited the field and noted the the questions asked. On the other hand, dismissing the alien spacecraft theory out presence of bugs (and lack of uFOs) in if Hemmat had simply taken the of hand as ridiculous and impossible, the area. footage at face value (there are dark, skeptics merely employed the principle There’s no harm done in trying to out-of-focus objects moving quickly at of Occam’s razor to the circumstances of recreate the original videos, but it’s un- an unknown distance from the camera) the video and offered a plausible alterna- likely that the result—no matter how that might have guided her to other ex- tive explanation. It was instead the uFO closely replicated—will satisfy the be- planations and experts. promoters and their experts who dis- lievers. Even if an investigator provided anomalous experiences and photo- missed the most likely theory out of an iron-clad case with multiple cameras, graphs—indeed all evidence—does not hand, saying that bugs absolutely could many uFO buffs would simply find arrive in the investigator’s hands pure. not explain the video images. reasons to claim that the videos are dif- Instead, the evidence arrives freighted So who’s being more open-minded: ferent than the originals—perhaps the with opinions and interpretations from the skeptics who aren’t ruling anything “uFOs” moved slightly faster or slightly eyewitnesses, researchers, and others. out as impossible but are merely pre- slower, or were a different color, etc. These interpretations of the evidence senting a likely alternative explanation Such is the desire to believe. In fact, may turn out to be completely correct, that fits the facts, or the uFO believers there are already several existing videos completely wrong, or somewhere in be- who immediately conclude that bugs showing what flying insects look like; tween. Because those opinions are often could not possibly be mistaken for the you can find links and video at Robert formed by little more than subjective images and therefore must be some- 1 Sheaffer’s Bad UFOs blog. opinion, desire to believe, credulity, or thing unknown or mysterious? (See another problem with this sugges- any number of other factors, it is impor- also Petrovic’s Forum, p. 53.) tion is that it has the burden of proof tant for an in vestigator to start fresh, Some criticized Hemmat and KD exactly backward: It is not up to skep- stripping away the second-hand inter- VR for incompetence and ratings-grab- tics or scientists to prove that the uFO pretations and assumptions, and begin bing, and while that may be partly true, is likely an insect; it’s up to those who with a blank slate. The evidence should it’s easy for skeptics to forget that the claim that the image is of an unknown be taken at face value to start, and each general public (which, apparently, in- entity to prove that it’s not an insect. assumption should be checked for valid- cludes TV reporters) does not have a There are times when an investigator ity before being accepted. In essence, good grasp of basic investigation tech- will voluntarily assume the burden of much of investigation is merely decon- niques. This is why skeptical investiga- n proof (I did it in my examination of the structing a theory to see if all the pieces tion is so important. “best case for psychic detectives”; see of information really fit or make sense Note “The Psychic and the Serial Killer,” SI, when assembled in a different way. 1. Some uFO believers rather disingenuously March/april 2010). But it’s a slippery Several readers complained that I and claimed that nobody mentioned in the KDVR re- slope, and it’s important for skeptics to other skeptics had presented the fly ex- port had claimed or implied that the uFOs were make clear to both the public and uFO planation as definitive; one wrote, “It is alien spacecraft, but merely “unidentified flying objects.” This is not only factually wrong (if the claimants where exactly the burden of doubtful that Radford’s insect explana- suggestion was not that the anomalies were air- proof lies. The default explanation is a tion is as certain as he maintains.” In fact, craft or spacecraft, why were they said to be “tak- in presenting the skeptical viewpoint, I ing off and landing” in a specific part of town?) naturalistic one—in this case likely a but also nonsensical: if all that’s being claimed is bug—not a supernatural or extraordi- was careful to not go beyond the evi- that they are unidentified, then why the backlash nary one; it’s not a spaceship until dence, and qualified the explanation as against skeptics offering a logical explanation for proven otherwise by camera-savvy sci- likely—not certain. This was clear from the uFO? entists and skeptics. the headline (“Denver uFO Likely Has References Earthly Explana tion”) as well as the text Alternative Explanations Radford, Benjamin. 2012. Denver uFO likely has (“The most likely explanation? a bug or Earthly explanation. Discovery News (No vem - This case also illustrates an important insect, probably a fly or bee.”). ber 13). Online at http://news.discovery .com/human/denver-ufo-likely-has-earthly- issue in skeptical investigation: In order Ironically, the only certainty ex pressed explanation-121113.html. to get the right answers you have to ask by anyone involved in the story was by Sheaffer, Robert. 2012. uFOs infest Denver, ac- the right questions. Heidi Hem mat, the the aviation expert, Steve Cowell, that cording to Fox News affiliate. Bad UFOs (No- vember 11). Online at http://badufos.blog reporter, made several investigative er- KDVR put on the air, who categorically spot.com/2012/11/ufos-infest-denver-accord- rors, including not considering alterna- stated what the objects absolutely could ing-to-fox.html.

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Treatise on INVISIBLE Allegedly invisible entities—popular belief notwithstanding—are indistinguishable from imaginary beings.

JoE NIckELL and JAmES mcGAhA

Popular belief aside, the best scientific evidence indicates that entities that are reputedly capable of invisibility1—ghosts and other spirits, for example, as well as some extraterres- trials, angels, fairies, and many others—are indistinguishable from imaginary beings.

Natural Invisibility? not exist as matter. The very substance there was nowhere for anyone to hide. Invisible, in this context, does not mean of such a matter-centric being—a per- Yet a horn attached to one end of the transparent 2 (like a jellyfish), nor cam- son or other living (or even nonliving) casket allowed people to address ques- ouflaged 3 (such as a chameleon), nor ob- thing of the natural world—necessarily tions to the invisible girl and to hear her scured (as with a magician’s rabbit), nor renders it visible and at the same time voice in reply! Theories that it was a microscopic (like a bacterium) but in- incapable of invisibility. But if this is ventriloquial trick were soon discred- stead truly invisible: that is, when the true, then what of an invisible girl ex- ited. as to the theory that a tiny dwarf entity is in the invisible mode it is in- hibited at Paris in the eighteenth cen- capable of being seen by human vision tury? in the visual spectrum. It neither re- Supposedly a prodigy born in one of flects, refracts, absorbs, scatters, nor ra- the provinces, she was kept, presumably diates light.4 for her own safety, in a small casket. No physical entity—that is, a being This had glass panels on the top, front, composed of ordinary matter5—can and back so spectators could see exist in an invisible state, short of being through the box, which was suspended dematerialized, in which case it would from the ceiling by four chains. Thus

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INVISIBLEBEINGS

hid behind the trumpet, that notion was Advanced Technology? body slowly returns to visibility.) an- likewise rejected because—had such a Of course, one may assert that some other science fiction story is the humor- miniature mortal existed—it would technological advance may make invis- ous Abbott and Costello Meet the Invisi- have been more sensible to exhibit it ibility possible, but this is merely a sci- ble Man (1951). (Mistakenly accused of than to fake an “invisible girl.” ence-fiction notion. It was advanced as murder, a man injects himself with a se- as it happened, there really was no early as 1897 in a novella by H.G. invisible girl but rather a real one hidden Wells. Titled The Invisible Man, it tells in the adjacent room. She addressed of a scientist named Griffin whose op- spectators through a speaking tube— tics research enables him to alter a with its end that emerged from the wall body’s refractive index to that of air; being concealed by the large mouth of thus it neither absorbs nor reflects light the trumpet. a picture on the wall had a and so becomes invisible. (Griffin suc- secret peephole through which the hid- ceeds in making himself invisible but— den girl could observe objects held up to unable to reverse the effect—embarks the casket and so describe them in detail on a rampage that culminates in his (Gibson 1967, 44–45). own killing by a mob. as he dies, his

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cret formula that renders him invisible as to how invisibility might be achieved, heard crying out in alarm. His parents so he can elude authorities and trap the for the time being ‘real’ invisibility or and neighbors, who had gathered to real killer—with the help of a couple of perfect transparency ... remains firmly sing to Mrs. Larch’s organ music, rushed wacky private eyes.) within the realm of science fiction” outside. By lantern light the group fol- Fiction notwithstanding, in 1943— (McGovern 2007, 347). (To all those lowed Oliver’s footsteps in the snow according to a later book, The Phila- who would, from their armchairs, opine, until, about halfway to the well, they delphia Experiment (Moore and Berlitz say, about theoretical physics, we would abruptly ended! “Because it defied log- 1979)—invisibility supposedly became only ask them to wait until they have ac- ical explanation,” writes Frank Edwards a reality. allegedly, the united States complished invisibility and then get back (1962, 103), “the disappearance of this Navy conducted an experiment with to us.) boy was quietly filed away and forgot- “electronic force fields” at the Phila - ten.” delphia Navy Yard that succeeded in Extra-Dimensional Realms? unfortunately, this story succumbed rendering a battleship and its entire to investigation. Like another disappear- crew invisible! Reportedly, however, the ance narrative—that of Tennessee experiment had such traumatic effects farmer David Lang, who in 1880 van- on the personnel that the research was ished in full view of witnesses but whose abandoned, the project classified above voice could be heard faintly at the site top secret, and the entire incident pub- over subsequent years—the Larch story licly denied—another great government turns out to have been plagiarized from conspiracy. a trilogy of ambrose Bierce short stories. In fact, the “experiment” was nothing The Larch tale bears obvious similarities but an outrageous hoax, perpetrated on to Bierce’s “Charles ashmore’s Trail,” credulous researchers by one Carl M. just as the Lang yarn does to his “The allen, who also called himself Carlos Difficulty of Crossing a Field” (Nickell allende. Born in 1925, allende was But suppose invisibility already exists. 1980; 1988, 61–73). at the end of his considered brilliant but lazy and given One may hypothesize means by which an “Mysterious Disappearances” trilogy is a to practical jokes. He later (1969) ad- entity supposedly appears and disappears, postscript in which he relates the theo- mitted the invisibility claims were “false such as a “parallel universe” (Sachs 1980, ries of an obvious crackpot who postu- ... the crazyest [sic] pack of lies I ever 84) or “another dimension or space-time lates, says Bierce, that “in the visible wrote.” Still later he retracted the con- continuum” (Sachs 1980, 239). However, world there are void places” likened to fession, and the subsequent book and a these concepts also are unproven, and the “cells in a Swiss cheese,” that some- 1984 movie helped keep the hoax alive cases supposedly proving them typically how explain disappearances (Bierce (Stein 1993, 176–77). do not withstand scrutiny. 1893). But can we really be certain that no Consider, for instance, the case of technology in this or another universe Oliver Larch, whose disappearance on Alien Domains can ever be devised to cause invisibility? Christmas Eve 1889 is one for the an- Well, we certainly can imagine such. nals of the incredible. Leaving the “However,” according to Chambers Dic- Larch family farmhouse on the out- tionary of the Unexplained, “although skirts of South Bend, Indiana, to fetch there are many theoretical suggestions water, the eleven-year-old boy was soon

But can we really be certain that no technology in this or another universe can ever be devised to cause invisibility? Well, we at some point, such thinking crosses over into the paranormal. Take extra - certainly can imagine such. terrestrials, for example. alien beings are sometimes said to have the power of invisibility—not unlike fairies and other magical beings (to be discussed later).

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according to many witnesses, an extra- investigate uFOs rather than engage in prove he or she has such abilities under terrestrial may suddenly come into view, “organized obscurantism and ridicule” scientifically controlled conditions or vanish in an instant, while others re- (Constable 1978, 15–17). However, to (Randi 1991, 151–53). port similar behavior of uFOs. Some the extent scientists have engaged in Consider Mary ann Winkowski, for think the disappearing craft simply “re- ridicule of uFOs, cranks like Trevor example. The real-life model for the turns to its original dimension” (Sachs James Constable have mostly them- central character in the fantasy TV se- 1980, 84), while there is also the impli- selves—and their runaway imagina- ries Ghost Whisperer, Winkowski claims cation that, before and after it was per- tions—to blame. to see and talk to earthbound spirits ceived, it was invisible. (not those who have supposedly a major proponent of invisible uFOs Spirit Realm “crossed over” to the Other Side). Since was Trevor James Constable—a man she was a child of four, she says, she has with strange ideas indeed. Constable been able to “see” the dead at funerals stated in his book Sky Creatures (1978, 7– even though they are invisible to others. 8) that “the main direction in which She maintains that the spirits “smoke, uFO phenomena lead human inquiry” is comb their hair, change their clothes— “into the invisible.” Constable postulated all those things we always do too. Only that uFOs were “invisible” beings in an I’ve never been able to figure out where “invisible [infrared] realm.” They “occa- they get the stuff from” (Winkowski sionally emerge into the visible portion of 2000, 150). the spectrum,” being sustained and pro- as a child, Winkowski had what pelled by “ energy” (1978, 12, 18). seem to have been imaginary playmates, Imagined by a named Wilhelm Some claim that a person does not re- although she insists they were not Reich (1897–1957), orgone energy is ally die at death but instead becomes a imaginary. as an adult she claims to re- said to be “life energy.” It supposedly ghost or spirit, supposedly formed of ceive special messages from paranormal causes stars to twinkle, produces light- energy, and lives on, invisibly, in that entities and frequently encounters ap- ning and other static electric phenom- state. as with aliens, some speak of an paritions—as well as exhibiting numer- ena, and animates rods— “invisible realm” for spirits (Guiley ous other traits consistent with being a among many other functions. In the 2000, 356). Proof, however, is lacking. classic fantasizer. There is a distinct lack human body it purportedly recharges Moreover, we know from the science of of objective evidence for her claims that red blood cells through breathing and neurology that when the brain dies, spirit entities exist (for instance, an provides sexual energy (Gardner 1957, brain function ceases; any energy given anomaly in a client’s photo, supposedly 250–262). Constable notwithstanding, off by the body necessarily dissipates. depicting spirit energy, was actually Reich’s orgone proved to be imaginary Nevertheless, “ghost hunters” purport to caused by the flash rebounding from the and, after Reich ignored an injunction detect such energy using gadgetry— camera’s wrist strap). against selling his allegedly curative but electromagnetic-field meters, thermal The evidence strongly suggests in - worthless Orgone accumulator boxes, imaging cameras, and so on—but that stead that Winkowski is simply partic- he was tried, fined, and sentenced to two approach is just so much pseudoscience ipating in encounters of her own imag- years in prison, where he died (Randi (Nickell 2006). ination (Nickell 2010). Therefore, the 1995, 222). Some claim the invisible entity may source of the “stuff ” that puzzles her— Constable proposed that there were be viewed psychically. That is to say, a the inanimate objects that are seen in two main types of uFOs: 1) actual living spirit of the dead, for instance, may be the possession of apparitions that sup- “critters” that inhabit Etheria, an invisi- seen by a “medium”; or an angel, deity, posedly represent life energy—is clear. ble world of the atmosphere (just as fish or the like may be perceived by a “vi- as Tyrrell (1973) noted, apparitions of live in the sea), and 2) inanimate craft sionary.” Invariably, however, such seers visibly rendered invisible people invari- piloted by Etherean intelligences—both are revealed to have fantasy-prone per- ably wear clothes and are accompanied propelled of course by orgone energy sonalities (Wilson and Barber 1983; by objects—just as they are in dreams— (Constable 1978; Sachs 1980, 71). He Nickell 1995, 40–42, 157, 162, 167, 176, because the items are necessary to the claimed to have captured both types on 211–14), or they appear to be halluci- apparitional drama. In other words, the infrared film, but his work seems doubt- nating (Nickell 2007, 80, 245–55, 260– inanimate objects, like the entities ful in the extreme, has never been con- 62) or both—assuming they are not themselves, are imaginary. ducted or reported in any responsible outright . There is no con- scientific manner, and has not been vincing scientific evidence that anyone Visionary Experiences? replicated by mainstream science. Not has psychic powers of any kind—hence as to the perceptions of reputed vision- surprisingly, he rants against “official sci- James Randi’s longstanding offer of a aries, similar problems present them- ence” for “evading its responsibilities” to substantial reward to anyone who can selves. Take Joseph Smith, for instance,

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the Mormon founder who claimed to magick? invisible, for the witches believe he is receive instructions from an entity, an under the earth, being themselves ap- angel of God named Moroni. He ap- parently bewitched by this” (Leland peared at Smith’s bedside and told him 1995, 148). how to find a holy account, written on Occasionally, invisibility magic even gold plates and now known as the Book purports to make someone invisible from of Mormon. Regarded by many as a himself. usually, however, the intent is to veritable confidence man, and certainly prevent others from seeing him. One a person with an extraordinary propen- such fourteenth-century charm involves sity to fantasize (Wilson and Barber reciting Genesis 19:11: “and they smote 1983), Smith appears to have experi- During the witch craze of the fifteenth the men that were at the door of the enced common “waking dreams” (hyp- to eighteenth centuries, it was sometimes house with blindness. ...” This is predi- nagogic hallucinations) that occur in the reported that devils called incubuses were cated on the belief that holy writ will cast twilight between sleeping and waking either “visible or invisible.” Supposedly a spell of blindness over others—though (Nickell 2004, 296–303). they would copulate with “witches,” that is not really the same, even if it did Or consider the famed Catholic vi- whereupon, although the female was said work, as actually becoming invisible sionary, Lucia Santos, who at age ten was to be in the throes of ecstasy, the incubus (Cavendish 1970, 11:1453). one of three shepherd children who en- was not visible, yet at other times “a Yet a medieval grimoire offered a tal- countered the Virgin Mary at Fatima, blacke vapor of the length and bignesse isman promising to “make you invisible, Portugal, in 1910. She and her seven- of a man” was allegedly seen to depart even to spirits.” Reputedly, “You will be year-old cousin Jacinta Marto saw the from her. Reginald Scot repeats such able to traverse the bosom of the seas, dazzling apparition, radiant in white tales in his Discoverie of Witchcraft the bowels of the earth. Likewise you light, and Lucia convinced Jacinta’s ([1584] 1972, 43–44), albeit with pro- will be able to sweep through the air, brother Francisco to eventually “see” her found skepticism. nor will any human act be hidden from too. Only Lucia ever talked to the Virgin, according to other legends, witches you.” One needed to “say only: Benatir, who supposedly appeared on the same are themselves said to have the power of Caracrau, Dedos, Etinarmi” (Wedeck day during each of several months, yet invisibility—as well as of flying, shape- 1961, 47). among the magical items reputed to make their bearer invisible are various cloaks, amulets, rings, and potions. These may be found in folktales and legends (McGovern 2007, 347). ac - cord ing to one folklore authority (Leach 1984, 526–27), “Some beings, gods and Interestingly, throughout folklore ghosts and angels, need no such para- phernalia to appear and disappear, but certain entities that supposedly dwarfs and men must have some talis- have the power of shapeshifting also man to do the trick.” typically have the power of invisibility. Behind all such claims and practices is the belief in magic—the attempt to use spells, offerings, invocations, or the like to supplant natural processes. Whereas the latter constitute the do- main of science, magical thinking—the opposite of science (Randi 1995, 193)— is rooted in superstition. remained invisible to the onlookers. as shifting, astral projection, , Interestingly, throughout folklore it happened, Lucia was a precocious, and other supernatural powers (Guiley certain entities that supposedly have the imaginative, and charismatic child who 1991, 647–50). Then again, according to power of shapeshifting (the ability to had earlier apparitional experiences. gypsy lore, a man could become invisi- alter their shape) also typically have the Clearly a fantasizer who manipulated the ble to witches by doing as follows: “He power of invisibility. Such reputed other children (Nickell 2009), she was, must rise before the sun, turn all his shapeshifters include ghosts, spiritual her mother said, “nothing but a fake who clothes inside out and then put them entities, monsters, witches, and others is leading half the world astray” (qtd. in on. Then he must cut a green turf and (Leach 1984, 1004–1005). a good ex- zimdars–Swartz 1991, 86). place it on his head. Thus he becomes ample is the vampire, which may trans-

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form itself into a bat, feline, hound, in- inal point, that allegedly invisible enti- NY: Prometheus Books. sect, etc., as well as have the power of ties—popular belief notwithstanding— ———. 1995. Entities: Angels, Spirits, Demons, and Other Alien Beings. amherst, NY: Prome - invisibility—in addition to being un- are indistinguishable from imaginary be- theus Books. seen in a mirror (Bunson 1993, 42, 70, ings. That is, an invisible entity ———. 2004. The Mystery Chronicles. Lexington: 100, 176–77). another example is the necessarily means an immaterial one, university Press of Kentucky. ———. 2006. Ghost hunters. SKEPTICaL IN- fairy (see Thompson [1955] 1989, 41– one that therefore can exist only as a quIRER 30(5) (September/October): 23–26. 44). Shapeshifting’s link with invisibility product of the imagination. n ———. 2007. Adventures in Paranormal Investi - emphasizes the latter’s magical/fantasy gation. Lexington: university Press of Ken - Notes tucky. nature. ———. 2009. The real secrets of Fatima. SKEP- 1. Invisible: Not seen in the visible electro- TICaL INquIRER 33(6): 14–17. Deistic Power? magnetic spectrum (VES) (wavelength from ———. 2010. The real “Ghost Whisperer.” SKEP- 400nm to 690nm; frequency from 750THz to TICaL INquIRER 34(4): 16–17. 435THz). Light is electromagnetic radiation Randi, James. 1991. James Randi Psychic Investi - (EMR), i.e., energy emission (oscillating trans- gator. London: Boxtree. verse wave) produced when charged particles ———. 1995. The Supernatural A-Z. London: (electrons) are accelerated. The quantum of EMR Brock hampton Press. is the photon. Sachs, Margaret. 1980. The UFO Encyclopedia. 2. Transparency: The condition of allowing New York: Perigee Books. some light (EMR) to pass through. Scot, Reginald. (1584) 1972. Discoverie of Witch - 3. Camouflage: Concealment against back- craft. Reprinted 1930 edition, New York: ground environment by resembling the back- Dover. ground and disrupting patterns and edges. Certain Stein, Gordon. 1993. The Encyclopedia of Hoaxes. technological claims of invisibility—using meta- Detroit, MI: Gale Research. materials, nanotubes, crystal prisms, and mirrors Thompson, Stith. (1955) 1989. Motif–Index of Various demigods and deities through- to create a two-dimensional illusion—are nothing Folk Literature, vol. 3. Bloomington: Indiana out history have been attributed power more than static active/adaptive camouflage. university Press. 4. again, light is EMR (see n. 1). Tyrrell, G.N.M. 1973. Apparitions. London: The over visibility. In Greek mythology, 5. Ordinary matter: made of atoms and mol- Society for Psychical Research. Perseus, for instance, son of zeus and ecules, which are made of protons, neutrons, and Wedeck, Harry E. 1961. A Treasury of Witchcraft. Danaë, wore a helmet that conferred in- electrons, composed of fermions—namely quarks Secaucus, NJ: Citadel Press. and leptons. Wilson, Sheryl C., and Theodore X. Barber. 1983. visibility. This helped him become vic- The fantasy-prone personality: Impli cations torious over the snake-haired monster References for understanding imagery, hypnosis, and parapsychological phenomena. In Imagery, Medusa whom he decapitated (Mc- Bierce, ambrose. 1893. Can Such Things Be?; Current Theory, Research and Appli cation, ed. quoted in Nickell 1988, 67–68. Govern 2007, 347). anees a. Sheikh, 340–90. New York: Wiley. Bunson, Matthew. 1993. The Vampire Encyclo pedia. Some gods, like those of early Hin - Winkowski, Mary ann. 2000. As Alive, So Dead: New York: Grammercy. Investigating the Paranormal. avon Lake, OH: du literature, were not only invisible but Cavendish, Richard, ed. 1970. Man, Myth & Graveworm Press. “could assume any visible form at will to Magic: An Illustrated Encyclopedia of the Super - zimdars–Swartz, Sandra L. 1991. Encountering natural. New York: Marshall Cavendish Cor- favoured worshippers” (Hastings 1914, Mary. Princeton, NJ: Princeton university poration. Press. 7:405). This was also true of the god of Constable, Trevor James. 1978. Sky Creatures. New the Bible. It was in order to be seen that York: Pocket Books. he appeared to in the form of a Edwards, Frank. 1962. Strangest of All. New York: Signet. burning bush (Exodus 3:2–4). In New Gardner, Martin. 1957. Fads & Fallacies in the Joe Nickell is the Com- Testament passages are references to Name of Science. New York: Dover. mittee for Skeptical In- “the invisible God” (Colossians 1:15) Gibson, Walter B. 1967. Secrets of Magic Ancient quiry’s senior research and Modern. New York: Grosset and Dunlap. and to “the invisible things of him” (Ro- fellow. A former magi- Guiley, Rosemary Ellen. 1991. Encyclopedia of the cian, private detective, mans 1:20). Strange, Mystical, & Unexplained. New York: and teacher, he has been according to the Encyclopedia of Re- Grammercy Books. ———. 2000. The Encyclopedia of Ghosts and Spir- investigating unsolved ligion and Ethics (Hastings 1914, 7:404): its, 2nd ed. New York: Checkmark Books. mysteries and fringe-science claims since The attribute of invisibility is one Hastings, James, ed. 1914. Encyclopedia of Reli gion 1969. His website is www.joenickell.com. and Ethics. Edinburgh: T. & T. Clark. which is shared by gods, spirits, Leach, Maria, ed. 1984. Funk & Wagnalls Standard demons, the dead and the region of Dictionary of Folklore, Mythology, and Legend. James McGaha is a sci- the dead, or the world of the gods, San Francisco: Harper & Row. entific consultant for while the power of becoming invisi- Leland, Charles Godfrey. 1995. Gypsy Sorcery & the Committee for ble belongs to those beings as well as Fortune Telling. Edison, NJ: Castle Books. Skeptical Inquiry. An to certain mortals. Where invisibility Moore, William L., and Charles Berlitz. 1979. astronomer, teacher, was ascribed to gods or spirits, one The Philadelphia Experiment: Project Invisi - simple reason probably was that in bility. New York: Grosset and Dunlap. and retired USAF pilot, the case of most of them, apart from McGovern, una, ed. 2007. Chambers Dictionary of he directs the Grass- the Unexplained. Edinburgh: Chambers. lands Observatory. He has lectured around animal-gods or worshipful parts of Nickell, Joe. 1980. ambrose Bierce and those nature, they were in fact unseen. ‘mysterious disappearance’ legends. Indiana the world on science and pseudoscience Folklore 13:1–2; reprinted in Nickell 1988. and has frequently appeared as a UFO ex- and that brings us back to our orig- ———. 1988. Secrets of the Supernatural. Buffalo, pert on national TV shows.

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The Elberfeld Horses They were the most important of Clever Hans’s heirs. Their story is an archetypal example of the intertwinement that often exists between pseudoscience and the paranormal.

STEFANO VEZZANI

he story of Clever Hans, the reasoning horse, is very On the other hand, the Elberfeld well known. What is less known is that several other horses did not enhance our knowledge of science or psychology, and no classic Tclever animals followed Hans soon after. The most book was dedicated to them. as a con- prominent among them were the “Elberfeld horses.” sequence, they have almost been forgot- Clever Hans is still remembered because he was the ob- ten. They deserve to be remembered, however, because the events in which ject of a study that represented one of the highest achieve- they were involved are an archetypal in- ments in experimental psychology up to that time and stance of pseudoscience. as several au- which Oskar Pfungst (1907) detailed in a classic book. thors pointed out at the time, the story of these animals is also an exemplary il- Pfungst’s discovery of the “Clever Hans effect” has changed lustration of the intertwinement that the way in which many experiments are conducted in fields often exists between pseudoscience and where there is an interaction between the experimenter and the paranormal. an animal or human subject. Clever Hans, the Progenitor In 1900, Wilhelm von Osten of Berlin set out to educate his horse, Hans, to prove his revolutionary theory: If horses were educated like children, the funda- mental intellectual resemblance be- tween them and people would surface. He educated Hans applying the same pedagogical principles then used in ele- mentary schools and taught him by means of a blackboard and verbal expla- nations. allegedly, Hans learned to do arith- metic and understand spoken and writ- ten German. For instance, if he was asked “What is three times four?,” he tapped the ground twelve times with his hoof. Moreover, Hans was able to “talk,” as he had learned to represent each let- ter by tapping a certain number of times. Figure 1. The horse Zarif, one of the Elberfeld horses, attends a lesson by Krall (source Krall 1912). Von Osten started exhibiting Hans in public in 1904, and very soon the

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horse, known by the nickname of and Krall resolved to “educate” two other letter was represented by a number.1 “Kluge [Clever] Hans,” became famous stallions, Muhamed and zarif. He began In time, two other horses joined throughout the world. a heated contro- delivering daily lessons to them applying Muhamed and zarif: Hänschen and versy opened up between skeptics and von Osten’s methods. Berto. These equines were to go down believers, and it soon became clear that Krall (1912) explains that the work in history as the Elberfeld horses. it could only be settled by conducting was worth his while as the horses, after The education of the horses contin- experiments on Hans. a multidiscipli- they had learned to communicate by tap- ued for a couple of years substantially as nary scientific commission delegated ping, like Hans, manifested capabilities a private matter. However, little by little, the psychologist Oskar Pfungst to un- superior to those of any child. after thir- the news spread and many people asked dertake the experiments. teen days, Muhamed could already add to see the horses at work. There were Most of Pfungst’s experiments con- and subtract, and after twenty he could scientists among these people and a few sisted of two conditions: a condition multiply and divide. Soon, the horses also of them were so impressed that they “with knowledge” and another “without learned to work out roots in a few sec- persuaded Krall to write a book (Mac - knowledge.” In the first case, the exam- onds, something beyond Hans’s capabil- kenzie 1912). The book appeared in iner knew the answer to the question he ity, and to solve complex equations such 1912 with the title Denkende Tiere asked Hans; in the second, he did not. as √4536 – √1849 * √196 – √144. They (Thinking Animals) and was more than Pfungst proved that Hans answered cor- also learned to understand spoken and 500 pages long. rectly only in the “with knowledge” tri- written German and French, and to Krall was a strong science enthusiast. als. It was as if Han’s did not work the “speak” German. as with Hans, each Nevertheless, his book was un orthodox answer out by himself but rather read it in the examiner’s mind. In fact, whether or not Hans could hear the question seemed irrelevant. The scientific commission proclaimed that Hans Moreover, Hans managed to answer correctly only when he could see the ex- could not reason and that rather than being edu- aminer. This suggested that he was ex- cated he had been trained, albeit unintentionally. ploiting some visual cues coming from the examiner. Indeed, Pfungst ascer- tained that the examiner unconsciously stooped very slightly immediately after having asked a question. When Hans saw this movement, he started tapping. When the horse reached the correct number of strokes, the examiner straightened up. Hans perceived this movement and stopped tapping. On December 9, 1904, the scientific commission proclaimed that Hans could not reason and that rather than being educated he had been trained, al- beit unintentionally. Public discussion about Hans then came to an end. according to most accounts, the story ended here. as a matter of fact, however, it continued when in 1905 von Osten made contact with one of the very few people who had not accepted Pfungst’s explanation: Karl Krall, a wealthy jeweler from Elberfeld (now Wuppertal).

Sensation at Elberfeld Krall inherited Clever Hans upon the death of his owner in 1909. However, Hans had become almost unmanageable Clever Hans performs for a crowd.

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from a scientific perspective, a point However, there were also many sci- although he conceded that the problem several critics did not fail to notice. On entists and intellectuals who thought did not admit of a simple solution the other hand, it also re ceived enthusi- that the attention the Elberfeld horses (Gemelli 1913). above all, he lamented astic comments. Wil helm Ostwald, the were getting in the intellectual and sci- the absence of a serious inquiry aimed Nobel laureate for Chemistry in 1909, entific community was unwarranted. at verifying whether Pfungst’s explana- expected that it would mark “as clearly Most important, at the IX Inter national tion of Hans’s feats also applied to the the beginning of a new chapter in the Congress of zoology held in Munich in Elberfeld horses. doctrine of man’s place in nature as 1913, twenty-four scientists signed a Luigi Siciliano (1914) and the psychi- Darwin’s chief work did in its day” (Na- statement of protest regarding the diffu- cal researcher Cesar de Vesme (1912) be- ture 1914–1915). The eminent psychol- sion of Krall’s theory (Cla parède 1913). lieved that the performances of the horses ogist Édouard Cla parède (1912) wrote Skeptics believed that the Elberfeld had a mediumistic explanation. Stefano that the publication of Krall’s book “is horses had simply been trained, like Stefani (1913) claimed that the explana- certainly the most sensational event that Hans, and that their performances tion was to be found in . has ever happened in animal psychology could be explained by Pfungst’s theory. and possibly in psychology at large.” It is significant that there were experts Pfungst’s Theory Refuted? On the whole, Krall’s book had a in horse training among the skeptics Skeptics insisted that the only way to es- wide-reaching effect, and the Elberfeld (e.g., von Máday 1914) but not among tablish whether or not Pfungst’s theory horses soon became even more famous the believers. applied to the Elberfeld horses was to than Hans had been in his time. I am particularly familiar with the perform experiments using a “without Italian writings, which are very represen- knowledge” condition. The problem was, A Controversy Ensues tative of the European literature in gen- however, that Krall prevented skeptics Krall and his followers founded the eral. The Genoese biologist William from experimenting (e.g. Gemelli 1913). Gesellschaft für Tierpsychologie (Society of Mackenzie was the most active Italian Pfungst (1912) himself lamented that animal Psychology) in 1912 and the advocate of Krall’s theory and was often Krall had rejected all three of his re- journal Tierseele (Animal Mind) in 1913, cited in the international debate. Some quests to study the horses. two entities entirely dedicated to reasoning of his many articles on the subject ap- according to the believers, Pfungst’s animals. Robert Yerkes, the well-known peared in journals dedicated to the para- theory of unconscious signs hardly de- american psychologist and primatologist, normal. In the 1950s, Mackenzie was served to be mentioned. It was widely was a member of the Gesell schaft. chairman of the Italian Society of refuted by facts, as so many observers Like von Osten, Krall and his advo- Metapsychics. had testified after they had seen the cates believed that the horses “have re- Roberto assagioli also became an horses with their own eyes. Claparède ceived a real education, and have learn - enthusiastic admirer of Krall after hav- (1912), for instance, made the following ed to think like us” (Mackenzie 1912). ing journeyed to Elberfeld with Mac- written statement for Krall: “The horses as with Hans, however, explanations kenzie in September 1912. He was a answered correctly under circumstances based on telepathy were also put for- theosophist and became famous later on that absolutely rule out the hypothesis of ward: perhaps something was being as the founder of psychosynthesis, a intentional or unintentional signs. It transferred directly from the brains of school of psychotherapy. One concept seems certain to me that the aforesaid those present to the brains of the horses of psychosynthesis is the transpersonal horses really count the number of (Claparède 1913). unconscious, from where paranormal taps. ...”2 In short, “it can now be af- Many personalities journeyed to El- powers emanate. firmed that the reality and authenticity of berfeld. after the influential neurologist The psychiatrist Giulio Cesare Fer- Krall’s results are certainly and definitely es- Ludwig Edinger had seen the horses, he rari was cautiously interested in the El- tablished” (emphasis in original, assagioli began supporting Krall’s theories pas- berfeld horses, mainly because he was 1912). In general, however, the evidence sionately. a number of zoologists, too, an educator. He wrote that they proved against Pfungst’s theory consisted of an- embraced the cause of the horses, for ex- “the boundless possibilities of educa- ecdotes and testimonies, whereas strict ample, H. Kraemer, P. Sarasin, H.E. tion” and was sure that both intentional experiments were wanting. ziegler, and K. Gruber, a scholar of the and unintentional signs had to be ab- Nevertheless, some experiments à la occult (Gruber 1930). The prestigious solutely ruled out. However, he ascribed Pfungst were undertaken by believers. biologist Ernst Haec kel wrote to Krall: the achievements of the horses to their Krall himself made a few, but he admitted “Your careful, critical experiments con- memory rather than to their intelligence in his book that they had substantially vincingly prove the existence of reason (Ferrari 1914). failed. Several other experiments of this in animals, something I have never The physician and psychologist Fa- kind were performed by Krall’s advocates. doubted” (Claparède 1912). ther agostino Gemelli was very critical, We are told that they succeeded, but usu-

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ally in conditions un suited to a serious, a groom’s mentality and are certainly no becoming suspicious when albert im- controlled experiment. actually, the mathematics professors” (Mackenzie mediately spotted a mistake that Fausti- Nobel laureate for Literature in 1911, 1912). Most important, the horses nus had deliberately inserted in a prob- Maurice Maeter linck (1914), performed worked well even when Krall and the lem that consisted of working out a an experiment that could be considered grooms were not present, and this fourth root. quite satisfactory, if one accepts that his seemed conclusive evidence. Next, Faustinus realized that Muha - account is reliable. alone with the horses, However, only an expert in deception med worked only if he could perceive Maeterlinck randomly pulled three cards can reliably ascertain whether a trick ex- albert. Even when Faustinus had the out of a deck without looking at them ists or not. Indeed, the likely truth was impression that he was alone with and put them in front of each animal in discovered only when an unspecified Muhamed, albert was actually able to turn. The horses “communicated correctly “psychological party” commissioned an communicate with the horse from out- the sum of the cards by tapping.” (More investigation to be made by a profes- side the stable, even from a considerable on this presently.) Maeterlinck (1914) sional conjurer, the Danish F. Faustinus distance. When Faustinus prevented dedicated to the Elberfeld horses a long (the stage name of Faustinus Edelberg), Muhamed from seeing albert, the horse chapter of a book that was wholly conse- who was given the opportunity to study stopped answering correctly. This could crated to the occult. the horses closely in 1913. Two years explain the accounts, including Maeter- Claparède managed to study the later, Faustinus disclosed his findings in linck’s, regarding the horses answering horses in March 1913 without Krall an article signed by Müller (1915)—see correctly even when their questioner did being present. unfortunately, no conclu- also Sebeok (1982) for a thorough ac- not know the answers and was seem- sion could be reached, as the horses an- count in English. ingly alone with them. Therefore, it seemed that albert pro vided Muhamed with signals, but which signals? Faustinus discovered that there was just one very simple and The possibility that any signals given may have “almost imperceptible” signal. When been intentional was usually ruled out in very asked a problem, Muhamed started tap- resolute terms. No body, not even the skeptics, ping but stopped when albert shook his head slightly but discernibly. In sum, doubted the absolute good faith of Krall. there was “a signaling in Pfungst’s sense, the only difference being that here it is intentional” (Müller 1915). after he had discovered the trick, Faustinus was able to make Muhamed give right or wrong swered almost all the questions incor- We learn from Schumann (1916) answers as he wished. rectly—independently of the knowledge that “Mr. Faustinus Edelberg has al - But albert was just a groom, so how that the experimenter had of the an- ready helped Prof. a. Lehmann of could he perform very complex compu- swers. Krall assures us that another man Copenhagen in the debunking of so- tations so fast? Faustinus pointed out made experiments a few days after Cla- called spiritistic mediums. He is be - that a fully reliable system existed for parède and that he obtained positive re- lieved to be unusually skillful in ‘mind working out three kinds of roots sults after he had made friends with the reading’ and it seems that, to this aim, (square, cube, fifth) very easily. horses. Krall maintained that the results he capitalizes on minimal unintentional Hänschen and Berto also failed when obviously depended on whether the vis- movements.” they could not perceive albert’s presence itors “are or are not liked by the horses” Krall (1916a) wrote later that Fausti- and so were almost surely controlled by (Claparède 1913). nus had tricked him into believing that him as well. Yet how, Fausti nus was un- he was “an independent re searcher” only able to discover. Cer tainly albert did not A Magician Enters the Stage interested in truth. Hence, Krall had let use the same technique with them that The possibility that any signals given him perform some experiments with his he used with Muhamed. as for zarif, may have been intentional was usually horses, “as I have always done without Faustinus could not undertake any ex- ruled out in very resolute terms. No body, any exception when I did not doubt the periment on him. as a matter of fact, not even the skeptics, doubted the ab- scientific integrity of the researchers.” “zarif could only be used as a saddle solute good faith of Krall (e.g., Gemelli Faustinus found convincing evidence horse already by the summer of 1913,” as 1913). as for the grooms, “they really are that albert, the only groom at that time, his performances had severely deterio- two worthy and simple boys. They have had swindled Krall. The conjurer started rated (Krall 1916b).

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Faustinus could not complete his in- Krall (1916b) tried to educate a new Elberfeld. Rivista di psicologia 8: 479–517. Máday, Stefan, von. 1914. Gibt es denkende Tiere?. vestigation because Krall forbade fur- horse, the mare Jona, and kept speaking Leipzig: Engelmann ther inquiries when he was informed of and writing about his horses of old. He Maeterlinck, Maurice. 1914. The Unknown Guest. the conjurer’s findings. although in- insisted that they could reason but London: Methuen. complete, Faustinus’s account appears added that they were also capable of Marbe, Karl. 1916. Offener Brief von Herrn Prof. Marbe an Herrn Krall. Mitteilungen der trustworthy, especially considering that communicating telepathically in partic- Gesellschaft für Tierpsychologie 4: 50.52. Karl Wigge (1912), also witnessed in- ular conditions. He became more and Mitteilungen der Gesellschaft für Tierpsychologie. 1914–1915. Mitteilungen an die Mitglieder. tentional signs by albert. more involved in parapsychology and 2–3(3): 44–46. Krall (1916a, 1916b) and ziegler spiritism (von den Berg 2008). Karl Müller, Georg Elias. 1915. Ein Beitrag über die (1916) tried to challenge Faustinus with Krall died in 1929. Elberfelder Pferde. Zeitschrift für Psychologie various arguments, but above all they a German dog, Rolf, also became 73: 258–264. Nature. 1914–1915. Thinking animals, 94: 426– tried to discredit him as an un- very famous in the same years as the El- 427. trustworthy investigator. For in stance, berfeld horses, and other sapient dogs Pfungst, Oskar. 1907. Das Pferd des Herrn von ziegler (1916) wrote that it was surpris- came after Rolf. They were thought to Osten. Leipzig: Barth. [English translation: Clever Hans (the horse of Mr Von Osten). New ing that more credit was given to the be even more gifted than the Elberfeld York: Henry Holt, 1911]. “conjurer and fortune-teller Fausti nus” horses but were not supported by lead- ———. 1912. Discussion of Pfungst’s “zur Psy- than to all the scientists who had most ing scientists. In general, the explana- chologie der affen”. In: F. Schumann (ed.), Bericht über den V. Kongreß für experimentelle accurately observed the horses and had tions of the believers drifted more and Psychologie. Leipzig: Barth, 204–205. testified that there was no signaling in- more toward the paranormal. Those Sanford, Edmund Clark. 1914. Psychic Research volved. The highly regarded psychologist who can read Italian can find their sto- in the animal Field: Der Kluge Hans and the Elberfeld Horses. The American Journal of Psy- Friedrich Schumann (1916) replied to ries chronicled in Vezzani (2010). n chology 25: 1–31. ziegler that “It is usually well recognized Schumann, Friedrich. 1916. zu den Bemer - that [a person like Faustinus] is more Notes kungen des Herrn Prof. H.E. ziegler über das Problem der Elberfelder Pferde. Zeit schrift für 1. See Sanford (1914) for a more detailed ac- suitable than ‘learned’ men for discover- Psychologie 75, p. 270. count in English of the performances of the Sebeok, Thomas albert. 1982. Dialogue about ing the intentional or unintentional as- horses. signs with a Nobel Laureate. The American sistance of a groom.” It seems that even 2. However, Claparède gradually convinced Journal of Semiotics 1: 35–57. himself that the Elberfeld horses were simply in those days there was awareness that a Siciliano, Luigi. 1914. La nona ipotesi. Psiche 3: trained animals (Claparède 1913; Heuzé 1928). conjurer is much better at debunking a 85–86. fraud than any scientist. Stefani, Stefano. 1913. Correnti intercerebrali tra References l’uomo e gli animali? Luce e ombra 13: 193–223. Then the Great War came. In 1915, assagioli, Roberto. 1912. I cavalli pensanti di El- de Vesme, Cesar. 1912. Les chevaux pensants albert was recruited (Marbe 1916) and berfeld. Psiche 1: 419–450. d’Elberfeld. Annales des Sciences psychiques 22: Krall dispensed with his stable, as “it has von den Berg, Britt. 2008. Die “neue Tier - 354-363. psychologie” und ihre wissenschaftlicher Vertreter Vezzani, Stefano. 2010. Animali sapienti. Fanno di become too heavy a weight for a single (von 1900 bis 1945). Berlin: Tenea. conto, scrivono, leggono il pensiero... forse!, Rome: man” (Mitt. d. Gesell. f. Tierpsych. 1914– Claparède, Édouard. 1912. Les chevaux savants aracne. 1915). d’Elberfeld. Archives de Psychologie 12: 263– Wigge, Karl. 1912. Das Problem der denkenden 304. Pferde des Herrn Krall in Elberfeld (Fortset - unfortunately, outside Germany ———. 1913. Encore les chevaux d’Elberfeld. zung). Deutsche Tierärztliche Wochen schrift 49: Faustinus’s investigations did not re - Archives de Psychologie 13: 244–284. 753–757. ceive the attention they deserved, and Ferrari, Giulio Cesare. 1914. Psicologia animale. ziegler, Heinrich Ernst. 1916. Das Problem der Rivista di psicologia 10: 38–46. Elberfelder Pferde. Zeitschrift für Psychologie the question of the intellectual capabil- Gemelli, agostino. 1913. I cavalli che “pensano” 75: 267–270. ities of the Elberfeld horses remained di Elberfeld. Rassegna nazionale February: officially open. For instance, the amer- 544–567. Gruber, Karl. 1930. Okkultismus und Biologie. Mu- ican psychologist Joseph Jastrow (1920) nich: Drei Masken. did not mention Faustinus in his highly Heuzé, Paul. 1928. La plaisenterie des animaux cal- Stefano Vezzani is a former skeptical article and wrote that “there culateurs. Paris: Les Editions de France. research worker at the Uni- Jastrow, Joseph. 1920. The Case of Maurice versity of Milano-Bicocca. He has been no definitive examination of Maeterlinck. The Weekly Review 2: 381–384 the Elberfeld horses.” Krall, Karl. 1912. Denkende Tiere. Leipzig: Engel- has written articles on exper- In any case, the controversy trickled mann. imental psychology and the ———. 1916a. Ein Brief von Karl Krall. Mit- to an end after the war. a silence de- history of psychology in sci- teilungen der Gesellschaft für Tierpsychologie entific and popular journals scended over the Elberfeld horses, 4(1): 25–26. and the book Animali Sapienti: Fanno di conto, which from then on was broken occa- ———. 1916b. Offener Brief an Herrn Prof. Marbe. Mitteilungen der Gesellschaft für scrivono, leggono il pensiero... forse! (Clever An- sionally but without anything new Tierpsychologie 4(2): 52–61. imals: They write, calculate, and read your being added to the debate. For his part, Mackenzie, William. 1912. I cavalli pensanti di thoughts…perhaps!)

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An Indian Test of Indian Astrology Indian astrologers claim they can tell a person’s intelligence from his or her horoscope. But twenty-seven astrologers failed to perform better than chance when given forty horoscopes of intellectually bright subjects and mentally handicapped subjects. JAYANT V. NARLIKAR

Skeptics might wonder at this, since it n the world of astrology, India has many claims to fame. implies that the shadows cast on ancient It has an astrology fundamentally different from both sundials were routinely positioned to Chinese and Western astrology,1 possibly more part- and better accuracy than a hundred millionth I of the diameter of an atom. Even at full-time astrologers than in the rest of the world put to- night. Can we believe it? gether, and the world’s longest-running English astrological monthly (The Astrological Magazine 1895–2007). Its main Complexity without End government funding agency, the university Grants Com- Indian astrology is more complex than Western astrology, with countless au- mission, provides support for BSc and MSc courses in as- thoritative aphorisms to cover every trology in Indian universities. and as for the general public, possible situation. Indeed, the few one finds almost universal belief in it. Western authors who have described it for Western use have typically required Indian astronomer and astrology trols. For example, B.V. Raman (1912– decades of study before proceeding. But critic Balachandra Rao (2000, 149) 1998), publisher-editor of The Astrolog- as one of them has noted: “This is of notes: “The belief in astrology among ical Magazine, wrote that “when Saturn course natural for a society over 6,000 our masses is so deep that for every triv- was in aries in 1939 England had to years old whose elders have not only ial decision in their personal lives—like declare war against Germany” (note the employed astrology but embraced it” whether to apply for a job or not— fatalism) in a work intended “to present 2 they readily rush to the astrologers with a case for astrology” (Raman 1992, (Braha 1986, x). their horoscopes.” Likewise, many will 119). However, this reasoning fails to and there is no Western equivalent consult an astrologer to ensure their notice that Saturn was also in aries in to the ways in which those authoritative marriage date will be auspicious. In 1909 and 1968 when nothing much aphorisms can be modified via suitably 1963, the astrologer’s advice, for exam- happened other than overseas state vis- chosen amulets, mantras, colors, gem- ple, led to a postponement of the wed- its by Edward VII and Elizabeth II, re- stones (yellow or blue sapphire is said ding of the Crown Prince of Sikkim by spectively. to strengthen Jupiter or Saturn, respec- a year. a day seen as generally auspi- Indian astrologers often make ex- tively), and by performing yajnas (a cious can thus lead to a large number of treme claims about Indian astronomy, as spiritual ceremony involving offerings weddings taking place, putting severe when The Astrological Magazine for to fire performed by a Hindu priest). pressure on facilities like wedding halls, March 1984 claimed uranus, Neptune, Ironically these modifications specified caterers, etc. and Pluto had been discovered around by the astrologer are essentially fatalistic 500 BC (Rao 2000, 36). But their claims ways of achieving non-fatalistic out- Prediction of Events about Indian astrology tend to be even comes. Western astrologers are generally more extreme, as in the august 25, 2003, taught that astrology is nonfatalistic Indian Express wherein Raj Baldev, who Miraculous Nadis and therefore not a good bet for pre- claimed to be “an authority on the sub- Indian Nadi astrology has many varia- dicting events. Indian astrologers hold ject of astronomy, astrology, Cosmo- tions, but if any of them worked it the opposite view, and every astrologer Mathe matics and Meta physics” said that would be a miracle. Nadi astrologers, worthy of the name must be able to ancient Hindu astrology “is a complete when approached by a client, are found make such forecasts. unfortunately, science” where even one million billionth to have a huge collection of horoscopes these predictions do not carry any con- of a second “makes a lot of difference.” on ancient palm leaves, one of which

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rience, and did not meet their clients’ need to talk and vent their feelings. In- deed, about two decades ago an edu- cated young man committed suicide after a computer horoscope predicted total failure in everything he did (Pre- In 1989, I was showing a visitor around my newly manand et al. 1993, 307). Never theless, as in the West, computer horoscopes established astronomy center in Pune.... At the end, seem here to stay. I waited for any questions she may have had. In 1989, I was showing a visitor around my newly established astron- Yes, she did have a question: omy center in Pune. at that time we “Does this computer cast horoscopes?” had just set up our new computer and I explained its capabilities to the visitor. at the end, I waited for any questions she may have had. Yes, she did have a question: “Does this computer cast horoscopes?”

The Ultimate Accolade turns out to be the client’s. But a little Electronic Destinies The lobby for Indian astrology had its thinking shows that it is not as mirac- In 1984, the first companies to offer crowning glory when, in February ulous as it may seem. Consider the fol- computerized horoscopes appeared in 2001, the university Grants Commis - lowing scenario. India, seventeen years after they had sion (uGC) decided to provide funds after providing birth details during started business in Europe. In twenty for BSc and MSc courses in astrology the first visit, the client is asked to return minutes (today, in just a few seconds) at Indian universities. Its circular stated: a few days later on the pretext that it will they could do the calculations that pre- “There is urgent need to rejuvenate the take time to find his horoscope among viously took three months. a computer science of Vedic astrology in India . .. the thousands held by the astrologer. horoscope may cost twenty-five rupees and to provide opportunities to get this While the client is away, the astrologer, (about fifty cents) for an ordinary one important science exported to the based on the information supplied by and fifty rupees (about $1) for a longer world.” actually, the phrase Vedic As- the client, writes his or her horoscope on one, more in big cities or air-conditioned trology is an oxymoron since the prefix a fresh palm leaf and soaks it in a slurry centers. Predictions cost up to 500 rupees Vedic has nothing to do with the Vedas, of coconut kernels and mango bark, both depending on the number of years ahead the ancient and sacred literature of the of which are rich in tannin. This gives (Rao 2000, 147).3 Many websites offer Hindus, which do not mention astrol- the palm leaf an ancient look (Prem- free horoscopes; see, for example, ogy. In fact, scholars agree that the anand et al. 1993, 331). During the sec- www.bestindiansites.com/astrology. usual planetary astrology came to India ond visit the client is appropriately im- as in the West, Indian astrologers with the Greeks who had visited India pressed that his/her horoscope turned up immediately complained that the com- since alexander’s campaign in the third after so many centuries. puter was devoid of intuition and expe- century BC. Within nine months of the uGC’s announcement, forty-five of India’s 200 universities had applied for the uGC grants of 1.5 million rupees (about $30,000) to establish departments of astrology. Of these, twenty were ac- cepted (Siddhanta 2001, 2). To those Indians who believe that astrological considerations influence the course of their business and family lives—and this category includes leaders of major political parties—the uGC’s decision might seem sensible if overdue. But the decision provoked outrage Indian horoscopes are a different shape from Western horoscopes, and their signs, houses, and aspects are cal- culated differently. They also differ in how they are interpreted. A Western-style interpretation focusing on the among India’s academics, especially owner’s personality and motivations would be rejected in India, where clients expect fortune-telling. those in the science faculties. More than

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100 scientists and 300 social scientists Gandhi losing. For example B.V. even though its focus on predicting wrote in protest to the government. Of Raman (whom I discussed earlier), in a yes/no events would make testing easy.6 the thirty letters-to-the-editor that ap- rare departure from his usual vagueness, I will now describe a controlled test that peared in the Indian science journal predicted that Gandhi’s efforts to regain my colleagues and I conducted recently. Current Science, most of them from sci- office “may misfire. Her ability to influ- entists in university departments or re- ence the Govern ment will be discon- Our Experiment search institutes, about half dismissed certingly limited in effectiveness” and Our experiment was performed in the astrology as a pseudoscience, and a the outcome “may not see a stable university city of Pune (formerly quarter felt that decisive tests were Govern ment.” an Indian horary astrol - Poona) about 160 km (100 miles) needed. against this, the rest felt there oger (one who answers questions) pre- southeast of Mumbai (formerly Bom - was nothing wrong with funding some- dicted that Gandhi “can never become bay) in the state of Maharashtra, which thing that most Indian people believe the Prime Minister.” However, she won is the second-largest in population and in. But the protests were without effect with a huge majority, was prime minis- third-largest in area of India’s twenty- because, in Indian law, Vedic astrology ter, and formed a very stable govern- five states. Pune itself has a population is seen as a scientific discipline. ment. of about 3.5 million. Nevertheless, in 2004, several scien- also in 1980, at a large international For the experiment I was assisted by tists asked the andhra Pradesh High conference organized by the Indian as- Professor Sudhakar Kunte from the Court to stop the uGC from funding trologers Federation, both the president Department of Statistics at Pune uni - courses in Vedic astrology because it and secretary of the Federation pre- versity, Narendra Dabholkar from the was a pseudoscience, it would impose dicted a war with Pakistan in 1982, Committee for the Eradication of Hindu beliefs on the education system,4 which India would win, and a world Super stitions, and Prakash Ghatpande and it would reduce the funds available war between 1982 and 1984. all a former professional astrologer who for genuine scientific research. How- wrong! These examples and many more has subsequently turned into a critic of ever, the court dismissed their case on are given by Rao (2000, 113–122), who astrology. the grounds that it was not correct for notes that no astrologer predicted Indian astrologers claim that they a court to interfere with a uGC deci- Gandhi’s assassination in 1984, and are able to tell intelligence from a per- sion that did not violate Indian law. that the golden rule seems to be “pre- son’s horoscope. So volunteers from the In 2011, an appeal under the act that dict only those things which please the Committee for the Eradication of Su- bans false advertising was made to the listener’s ego.”5 perstitions went to different schools Mumbai High Court. It was dismissed and collected the names of teenage by the court arguing that the act “does Lack of Criticism school children rated by their teachers not cover astrology and related sciences. In the West, books critical of astrology as mentally bright. They also collected astrology is a trusted science and [has are not hard to find, but in India the re- names from special schools for the been] practiced for over 4000 years. ...” verse is true. Some excellent books exist, mentally handicapped. The destinies of (as reported in The Times of India Feb- such as Premanand et al. (1993) and Rao these cases could hardly be more differ- ruary 3, 2011). (2000), but all are hampered by a lack of ent, so they were ideal for testing the Indian tests with which to counter true above claim. From the collected data we Failed Predictions believers. Even Current Science had to selected 100 bright and 100 mentally To justify calling it a science, astrology wait until Manoj Komath’s (2009) handicapped cases whose age distribu- must fulfil the basic requirement of a review, which drew heavily on Western tion is shown below. scientific theory—it must make testable sources such as the critical but user- and correct predictions. Here the per- friendly www.astrologyandscience.com. formance of astrology in predicting the unfortunately, given the low level of in- results of events has been very poor. come and high level of illiteracy of the The nearest we have are follow-ups to masses, web sources may not be very ef- predictions of public events such as fective in general. elections, where failure is the norm. For uGC’s funding of astrology might example, the elections in 1971 were a have been justifiable had Indian astrol- showdown between Indira Gandhi and ogy ever been a source of new knowl- her political opponents. The Astrological edge (it hadn’t; see Siddhanta 2001, 13), Magazine was filled with predictions by or if its modus operandi had been veri- amateurs and professionals, most of fied by controlled tests. But unlike as- whom predicted that Gandhi would trology in the West, where several hun- lose. In fact, she won with an over- dred controlled tests have found no whelming majority. support commensurate with its claims Breakdown by age of our 100 + 100 test cases. About half of the mentally handicapped cases are older than The 1980 elections attracted another (Dean 2007), astrology in India had our bright teenagers, which could have provided cues frenzy of predictions, most of which saw hitherto been without controlled tests, but evidently didn’t.

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Birth details were obtained from way to reach astrologers. Within a few to establish itself as a science. The or- their parents because birth certificates days we received about 150 telephone ganizer then said he could provide a set are rare in India. Professional Indian as- calls from astrologers all over Maha - of ten rules that would tell whether a trologers routinely assume that birth rashtra expressing interest. We asked horoscope’s owner was mentally bright details provided by parents are correct, them to send us their names, experi- or handicapped, and urged the as- so our procedure followed the norm. ence, and method of prediction used, trologers present to participate in our Each horoscope (birth chart) was cal- together with a stamped self-addressed experiment. culated by one of us (PG) using com- envelope for mailing the forty horo- In India, leading astrologers have mercial astrological software. all horo- scopes. They were then allowed one their own astrological organizations, and scopes were coded and stored in safe month for making their judgments. In so we wrote to those on our list (about a custody by Professor Kunte at Pune due course, fifty-one astrologers asked dozen) inviting them to judge all 200 university, so that neither the experi- for horoscopes, of which twenty-seven horoscopes. Two responded with expres- menters (our group of four) nor the as- from all over Maharashtra sent back sions of interest, of which one sent in its trologers could know the identities of their judgments. The rest did not tell us judgment. The other remained silent. the individuals. why they chose not to participate. An Interesting Sub-Test although the Maharashtra astro logical Society had urged astrologers to boycott our experiment, its president kept meet- ing with us. among other things he gave us a rule for predicting sex and another rule for predicting intelligence, both of which he claimed were correct in 60 per- If the astrologers could tell intelligence cent of cases. But when applied to our set from a person’s horoscope, they would score of 200 horoscopes, the predictions were respectively 47 and 50 percent correct, at least twenty-eight hits out of forty. . . . The average which offers no advantage over pure for all twenty-seven astrologers was 17.25 hits, guessing or tossing a coin. less than the twenty expected by chance Results of Our Main Test (e.g., coin tossing). Of the twenty-seven astrologers who participated, not all provided personal details, but fifteen were hobbyists, eight were professionals, nine had up to ten years of experience, and seventeen had more than ten years of experience. So they clearly formed a competent group. Their average experience was fourteen years. If the astrologers could tell intelli- Publicity Objections gence from a person’s horoscope, they We announced our experiment at a astrologers from the Pune and Maha - would score at least twenty-eight hits press conference in Pune May 12, 2008, rashtra astrological societies expressed out of forty. In fact the highest score and invited practicing astrologers to concern that, because the data had been was of twenty-four hits by a single as- take part. We explained that each par- collected by skeptics, the experiment trologer followed by twenty-two hits ticipant would be given forty horo- would be biased. We assured them that (by two astrologers). The remaining scopes drawn at random from our set the skepticism of data collectors had no twenty-four astrologers all scored of 200 and would have to judge active role in running the experiment, twenty hits or less, including one pro- whether their owners were mentally and that the experiment was of the fessional astrologer who found thirty- bright or handicapped. We also invited double-blind kind to make sure it was seven intelligent and three undecided established astrological organizations to entirely fair. But they were not con- (so none were mentally handicapped!), take part, for which they would be vinced, and tried (unsuccessfully) to of which seventeen were correct. The given all 200 horoscopes, a respectably dissuade other astrologers from partic- average for all twenty-seven astrologers large sample size. ipating. was 17.25 hits, less than the twenty ex- The press conference, which was re- a month later, at a Pune astrological pected by chance (e.g., coin tossing) ported in almost all local and regional seminar, we explained that tests, indeed and well within the difference of ± 3.16 newspapers, proved to be an efficient many tests, are necessary if astrology is needed to be statistically significant at

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p =0.05. So much for the benefits of Acknowledgments statements against the pseudoscience of astrology, their average fourteen years of experi- The Department of Statistics, Pune univer- which earned me a chapter titled “The Narlikar Episode” in a 348-page, 1998 book Astrology and ence! Certainly no scientific theory sity, and the Inter-university Centre for as- the Hoax of “Scientific Temper” by the astrologer would survive such a poor success rate! tronomy and astrophysics, Pune, provided Gayatri Devi Vasudev, then editor of The Astro- infrastructural support while this experi- logical Magazine. Her book tries to show that sci- The institution whose team of as- ment was being conducted. a brief account entific inquiry or “scientific temper” is prejudiced trologers had judged all 200 horoscopes appeared in Current Science 96(5), 641–643, against astrology, and that critics are quite igno- got 102 hits, of which fifty-one were 2009. My special thanks to Geoffrey Dean rant of both science and astrology. The above chapter accused me of venturing into areas I had bright and fifty-one were mentally of Perth, Western australia, for providing information on tests of Western astrology not investigated and was therefore ignorant of. handicapped, so their judgments were, as well as giving me a general background For example, I had made the supposedly inexcus- again, no better than tossing a coin. able mistake of declaring that astrology was not of astrology in the West versus the East. a science. I hope the present investigation can set Tragically, our statistician, Sudhakar the record straight. Kunte, died in an accident in 2011, and Notes the security he imposed on data storage 1. Babylonian omen ideas arrived in India References around 450 BC during the Persian occupation, has so far made it difficult for us to per- anand, R. 2010. Astrology Tested Fake. Jammu: followed, around 200 aD, by Greek astrological God vs Life Publications. form further tests, such as whether the ideas based on planets. To these were added new Braha, J.T. 1986. Ancient Hindu Astrology for the astrologers agreed on their judgments, ideas to suit Indian culture. The end result was Modern Western Astrologer. Miami: Hermeti- largely the Indian astrology still in use today, whether they could pick high Iq better cian Press. which exists in numerous schools disagreeing Clark, V. 1961. Experimental astrology. In Search than low, and whether the three astro- over details (most schools of astrology, Indian or 3(1): 102–109. logical methods used (Nirayan, Sayan, Western, disagree over details). The main differ- Dean, G. 2007. The case for and against astrology. ences from Western astrology are a preoccupation In B. Farha (ed.), Paranormal Claims: A Crit- Krishnamurty) differed in success rate. with reincarnation and karma, use of the sidereal ical Analysis. Lanham, MD: university Press We hope that the access to this data zodiac instead of the tropical zodiac (they now of america, pp. 115–129. will eventually be possible. differ by nearly one sign due to precession), ex- Dean, G., and I.W. Kelly. 2003. Is astrology rele- clusion of the non-classical planets uranus, Nep- vant to consciousness and psi? Journal of Con- Only two tests of Western astrol - tune, and Pluto in favor of the two lunar nodes sciousness Studies 10(6–7): 175–198. ogers have involved the judgment of in- Rahu and Ketu, use of twenty-seven lunar man- Dean, G., a. Mather, and I.W. Kelly. 1995. as- sions or nakshatras, and progressively smaller and telligence. In Clark (1961) twenty as- trology. In G. Stein, editor, Encyclopedia of the smaller subdivisions of the signs (Dean et al. 1995 Paranormal, Prometheus Books. trologers averaged 72 percent hits for and Rao 2000). Dudley, J. 1995. an attempt to predict accidental ten cases of high Iq paired with cere- 2. Braha (1986, xiii) warns that the complexity death with Vedic astrology. Correlation 14(2): can be dealt with only by intuition and experience, bral palsy, but this famous result could 7–11. (Twenty road deaths vs controls gave so Indian astrology cannot be properly learnt from 11 hits vs 10 expected by chance.) not be replicated by Joseph (1975), books. But tests of Western astrologers have found Joseph, R.a. 1975. a Vernon Clark-model exper- where twenty-three astrologers aver- that neither self-rated use of intuition nor experi- iment distinguishing exceptionally gifted ence raise their success rate above chance (Dean high performance from profoundly retarded aged only 53 percent hits for ten cases and Kelly 2003). So why should Indian astrologers low performance children. Journal of Geocos- of high Iq when paired with the se- be any different? mic Research 1(3): 55–72. verely mentally handicapped. In any 3. at one time Rao ran a computer horoscope Komath, M. 2009. Testing astrology. Current Sci- service but without predictions. It was “only to ence 96(12): 1568–1572. case the sampling error associated with prove to ‘omniscient’ astrologers that a confirmed Premanand, B., M. Bhatty, and M.S. Risbud N = 10 is more than enough to explain anti-astrologer can also do what astrologers do, and (eds). 1993. Astrology: Science or Ego-Trip? with greater efficiency and knowledge.” His charge both results, which is consistent with Published by Indian Skeptics. (The best sin- for fooling you was thirty rupees. gle survey of both Indian and Western astrol- the dozens of other tests that have been 4. according to ancient Hindu texts, each be- ogy, impressively thorough, many anecdotes, made of Western astrology (Dean liever has 8,400,000 rebirths from which they are but very few tests, none of them Indian.) released only by attaining enlightenment. at say, Raman, B.V. 1992. Planetary Influences on Human 2007). It is also consistent with the few fifty years per birth, and no change over time, the Affairs. New Delhi: uBSD. tests of Western astrologers who prac- allocated rebirths span more than 400 million Rao, S.B. 2000. Astrology Believe It or Not? Ban- tice Vedic astrology, for example Dud- years, roughly the age of the earliest hominids. galore: Navakarnataka Publications. 5. More examples can be found in Prema nand Siddhanta, K. 2001. Some questions concerning ley (1995). et al. (1993) and also via Internet search engine, al- the uGC course in astrology. Breakthrough beit with a need to persevere in your searching. For 9(2): 1–36. Conclusion starters, try searching for “astrology michael prabhu.” 6. But some come close. For example Rakesh Our experiment with twenty-seven In- anand (2010) used astrology to make several im- dian astrologers judging forty horo- portant decisions in his life, but the results were disastrous. So he prepared horoscopes for twenty- scopes each, and a team of astrologers four celebrities and nine personal friends, changed judging 200 horoscopes, showed that their names, and was able to get 101 astrologers none were able to tell bright children from everywhere in far northern India to predict their life and events. But none succeeded. For ex- Jayant V. Narlikar, well from mentally handicapped children ample, they predicted no political career from the better than chance. Our results contra- horoscope of George Bush and no big money from known as an astrophysicist dict the claims of Indian astrologers and the horoscope of Bill Gates. He concluded, “astrol- and science communicator ogy is a misleading and useless superstition” (6). He in India, is internationally are consistent with the many tests of also offered a prize of one million rupees (about known for his work in cos- Western astrologers. In summary, our $20,000) to any Indian astrologer who could demonstrate that astrology works, so far with no mology. He is emeritus pro- results are firmly against Indian astrol- takers. For details, visit www.godvslife.com. fessor at the Inter-University Centre for Astron- ogy being considered as a science.7 7. Over the years I have made many public omy and Astrophysics in Pune, India.

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Understanding Believers’ Cognitive Dissonance Dealing with believers of superstition, pseudoscience, and religion can be difficult for skeptics because it is hard to understand why intelligent people believe in irrational things. Understanding cognitive dissonance theory can help skeptics understand the psychology of irrational belief and perhaps better deal with believers.

JAMES WALKER

keptics take great pleasure in talking and debating things he wants them to do. People who believe in things are the with each other. We spend hours every day on online ones I am discussing here. In particular, Sskeptical forums, blogs, and websites. We meet to - I am referring to people whose world- gether at the pub, at meetings with our local skeptical view and sense of identity are deeply groups, and at conferences. tied to their belief in something, be it religion, pseudoscience, or superstition. We, being social animals, thrive and To “believe in” someone or some- What makes many believers so crave this interaction with other like- thing is a distinct concept from “be- staunch in their beliefs? Why do they minded individuals. The reality, though, lieve that.” There are two types of be- persist in their beliefs, even in the face lief in: is that we must live in a world of believ- of reason, logic, and evidence? The rea- ers of superstition, religion, and pseu- Commendatory: an expression of son I discuss here is cognitive disso- confidence in a person or entity, as in, nance. doscience. We interact with these be- “I believe in his ability to do the job.” lievers all the time and, for the most Cognitive dissonance is a theory first part, their beliefs do not come into play Existential claim: to claim belief in proposed by Leon Festinger in the 1950s. the existence of an entity or phenom- Festinger theorized that when an indi- in the interactions we have. Instances enon with the implied need to justify occur, however, when we find ourselves its claim to existence. It is often used vidual holds two or more ideas that are having to deal with someone whose be- when the entity is not real or its exis- related but inconsistent with each an- liefs cross swords with our skepticism. tence is in doubt. “He believes in other, the inconsistency creates a state of Perhaps it comes up in a conversation witches and ghosts” or “many children discomfort (Harmon-Jones and Har- believe in fairies” are typical examples. at a party or social gathering. Maybe mon-Jones 2007). “Because dissonance is this person is a friend and the conver- The difference between to believe in uncomfortable, people will try to reduce sation has strayed into uncharted terri- and to believe that is relevant in this it by changing one or both cognitions to tory, and we are surprised to find that context. We all have things that we be- make them more consonant with each the friend holds a superstitious or pseu- lieve that might be, usually based on our other” (Festinger et al. 1956). doscientific belief. knowledge, experience, and evidence. I Festinger famously tested his theory We have different kinds of relation- can believe that the sun rises in the east by studying a uFO cult that believed ships with believers, from casual to in- because my knowledge (knowing how that there would be a great flood on De- timate. How we deal with believers de - Earth rotates), my experience (having cember 21, 1954, and that a flying pends, to some degree, on the depth seen countless sunrises), and the evi- saucer would save them. When the and importance of our relationships dence (I can test this by using a com- prophecy failed to transpire and De - with them. pass to show that the sun does, indeed, cem ber 21 passed with no flood and no Before going further, we need to un - rise in the east) tells me this is true. al- flying saucer, the members of the group derstand what a believer is. Wiki pedia ternatively, I might believe that my son became even more dedicated to their has a nice definition of belief that I will be successful in a career as a sales- beliefs. The reasons were that most of happen to like and that I think serves man because he has shown a particu- them had gotten rid of all their posses- my purposes well here: lar talent in persuading people to do sions and had surrendered everything to

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their belief in the prophecy. They ra- the united States. They believed, based sterdam, Leghorn, and Ham burg, stag- tionalized the truth away by telling on a specific reading of the Bible, that nation of trade ensued” (Festinger et al. themselves that their sincere commit- the second coming of would occur 1956). ment stopped the flood from happen- sometime between March 21, 1843, The Sultan finally imprisoned Sab - ing, and that this proved that they were and March 21, 1844. Thousands of batai in Constantinople because he had right to believe. people came to believe this prophecy, arrived there in an effort to force the Festinger gave five conditions under and many gave away everything they beginning of his messianic mission which we expect to observe increased owned in preparation for the coming of where thousands of people hailed him fervor following the disconfirmation of their Lord. after the March 21, 1844, as the messiah. a belief: date passed, most of the Millerites lost Finally, in an effort to cope with the 1. a belief must be held with deep their faith, but some searched the Bible problem, without making a martyr of conviction, and it must have some and found passages that they felt ex- Sabbatai, the Sultan attempted to relevance to action, that is, to what plained why the original dates were in- convert him to Islam. astonishingly the believer does or how he be- accurate. enough, the plan succeeded and Sab - haves. batai donned the turban. Many of the Some Millerites concluded that of the Near East still kept faith 2. The person holding the belief Miller’s interpretation was flawed and must have committed himself to in him. Explanations were in vented it; that is, for the sake of his belief, that it instead foretold of Christ’s en- for his conversion and many contin- he must have taken some impor- trance into the heavenly sanctuary ued their proselyting, usually in places tant action that is difficult to undo. rather than his second coming. This where the movement had not previ- In general, the more important ously been strong. a considerable group came to be called The adventists number of Jews even followed his such actions are, and the more dif- and they continued to believe that ficult they are to undo, the greater lead and became Moslems. His con- is the individual’s commitment to Christ’s second coming was imminent, version proved to be too much for the belief. but they refused to set further dates for most of his followers in Europe, how- 3. The belief must be sufficiently the event. ever, and the movement there soon specific and sufficiently concerned collapsed. (Festinger, et al. 1956) with the real world so that events may unequivocally refute the be- lief. 4. Such undeniable disconfirmatory evidence must occur and must be recognized by the individual hold- ing the belief. We have seen modern examples of this phenomenon in 5. The individual believer must have social support. It is unlikely that groups such as Heaven’s Gate and Reverend Jim Jones’s one isolated believer could with- Peoples Temple, where people willingly killed themselves and stand the kind of disconfirming evidence we have specified. If, their children because they had literally invested everything— however, the believer were a mem- including their very beings—into their belief system. ber of a group of convinced per- sons who can support one another, we would expect the belief to be maintained and the believers to at- tempt to proselytize or to persuade nonmembers that the belief is cor- rect. Throughout history, there have been another fascinating example is that We can see by these examples how many examples of groups of people en- of Sabbatai zevi, a Jew in Smyrna in the easily people can surrender everything countering the above five conditions with seventeenth century who claimed to be they have, giving up possessions, rela- the same results. Most we are un able to the messiah and had thousands of Jew- tionships, and family to pursue their be- confirm with any certainty given the lack ish followers throughout Europe. When liefs. The more they sacrifice, the of record keeping and unwillingness of he proclaimed he would soon fulfill his greater the cognitive dissonance and the participants of these groups to admit purpose and lead the Jews of the world the stronger their belief becomes, even to failed prophecy. How ever, Festinger back to the Holy Land, “The Jews ac- after failure of the prophecy is obvious. gave several examples in his book When cordingly prepared seriously to return to They become so invested in their be- Prophecy Fails, pro viding evidence to sup- their original home. In Hun gary they liefs that they will latch onto any expla- port his theory. began to unroof their houses. In large nation, no matter how far-fetched, that One of these groups was the Miller- commercial cities, where Jews took the reinforces their beliefs to which they ites during the nineteenth century in lead in wholesale business, such as am- have surrendered so much.

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We have seen modern examples of beliefs by quoting scripture or appeal- If we merely mock or make light of this phenomenon in groups such as ing to the authority of the Bible, the a believer’s beliefs, without also ex - Heaven’s Gate and Reverend Jim church and its leaders, or God himself. pressing our respect for their right to Jones’s Peoples Temple, where people all of these arguments are, of course, hold those beliefs—no matter how ab- willingly killed themselves and their common logical fallacies that use circu- surd the beliefs may be—we will most children because they had literally in- lar reasoning to make their arguments: likely drive them deeper into their vested everything—including their very “My belief in God must be right be- mindset. While we say that we want beings—into their belief system. Not cause the Bible says so, and God wrote others to respect our beliefs, what we even the idea of death was enough to the Bible,” is one such example. really mean is that we want them to re- dissuade them; to the contrary, they saw To engage a believer in a productive spect us as individuals. The reality is death as part of God’s plan for them discussion about their beliefs, it helps to that the only thing we need to respect and their eternal salvation. understand that the person may be suf- in our dealings with anyone, including For the religious beliefs of the aver- fering from significant cognitive disso- believers, is respect for their rights to age person, cognitive dissonance— nance. I believe letting the person know hold and express their beliefs. Other while not nearly as strong as it may be that while I do not agree with their be- than that, we should not feel bound to in the above situations—is very strong. lief, I respect their right to say and be- hold back on criticizing their beliefs. If, however, we show that we have respect People who believe deeply or people lieve as they choose is very important. I for their rights to believe and express raised in certain belief systems have do not mean that we, as skeptics, have their beliefs, then we have the begin- much of their sense of self invested in to respect their ideas, thoughts, or ac- nings of a meaningful discussion. n those beliefs. tions, but we need to respect their rights The reactions of believers when to free expression and belief, and we References their beliefs are questioned are varied, should express to them our respect of Festinger, L., H.W. Riecken, S. Schachter, et al. but often the knee-jerk reaction is to those rights. 1956. When Prophecy Fails. Minneapolis: uni- become defensive. They may engage in In , Festinger says: versity of Press. When Prophecy Fails Harmon-Jones, E., and C. Harmon-Jones. 2007. ad hominem attacks on the person ques- “. . . through the mocking and scoffing of Cognitive dissonance theory after 50 years of tioning their beliefs, or they may attack nonbelievers there is usually established development. Zeitschrift fur Sozialpsychologie the questioner’s beliefs instead of ad- a heavy commitment on the part of be- 38: 7–16. dressing the questions raised about lievers . . . the jeering of nonbelievers James Walker currently works in the IT field their beliefs. They often engage in simply makes it far more difficult for the but is pursuing a career as a writer. He is the evangelistic activities with questioners, adherents to withdraw from the move- author of the Freethinking for Dummies blog at attempting to convince them of their ment and admit that they were wrong.” http://freethinkingfordummies.com.

[ SCIENCE WATCH KENNETH W. KRAUSE Innate Morality? Babies Weigh In

(Continued from page 31)

over characters who take them and run hill—an unlikely outcome, Scarf chides, have succeeded in raising important away (Hamlin and Wynn 2011). if their stimuli were—as Hamlin claims— questions for further research. are we in- More recently, Hamlin’s new team somehow deficient. nately moral, or is prosociality primarily claimed to demonstrate that, like adults, He argues as well that Hamlin et al.’s learned? are we naturally discriminatory babies interpret others’ actions as positive more recent experiments, though admit- and intolerant, or must those behaviors be or negative depending on context (Ham- tedly altered in design, suffer from the taught and learned as well? n lin et al. in press). In this particularly same general confound as the originals. chilling report, infants were found to pre- In one case, the protagonist was made to References: fer both individuals who helped others dive toward a rattle in helping trials—an Hamlin, J.K., N. Mahagan, z. Liberman, et al. (in with attitudes (tastes in food) similar to “interesting” event, according to Scarf, press). Not like me = bad: Infants prefer those who harm dissimilar others. Psychological Sci- their own, and individuals who hindered while the hinderer was made to slam a ence. others with different attitudes. box closed in hindering trials—an “aver- Hamlin, J.K., and K. Wynn. 2011. Young infants Scarf stands firm, however. He finds sive” event. prefer prosocial to antisocial others. Cognitive Development 26(1): 30–39. it implausible, for example, that ten- ough already extensive, Hamlin’s Hamlin, J.K., K. Wynn, and P. Bloom. 2007. Social month-olds would consider such small explorations into infant prosociality will evaluation by preverbal infants. Nature 450: differences between stimuli significant. continue. For his part, Scarf intends to 557–560. Regardless, his team had also replicated author a review of the existing literature. Scarf, D., K. Imuta, M. Colombo, et al. 2012. Social evaluation or simple association? Simple asso- Hamlin’s 2007 results when the climber Defending parsimony is an honorable ciations may explain moral reasoning in infants. was made to bounce at the top of the cause, of course, and the New zealanders PLoS One 7(8): e42698.

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FORUM] Closing the Book on ‘Open-Mindedness’

KATJA PETROVIC

“You’re just closed-minded.” option—if there is good evidence to con- Has this accusation ever been leveled at you? I found tradict your view, then you must take on the new way of thinking. History is full myself at the receiving end of this comment during a of examples of people collectively chang- heated conversation with my dear mother (the subject of ing their beliefs due to scientific findings: the conversation, by the way, was astrology). I reeled—this think evolution, the big bang theory, and climate change to name a few. The Bron- was coming from someone who thinks that walking tosaurus is now the apato saurus, and around the house barefoot will cause you to get a “womb who can forget saying goodbye to Pluto’s cold” and not be able to have children (and who will planetary status? We used to treat chil- dren’s ailments with morphine, believed that sick people needed to be bled, and defend this by saying that it must be at least my mom and I can agree on thought that women became hysterical true because her grandmother said so). one thing: being open-minded is some- because their wombs were moving That aside, I decided to delve further thing worth striving for. But what ex- around in their bodies. and scientific ev- into this notion—because I would hate actly does being “open-minded” mean? idence against these beliefs is the reason to be too closed-minded to consider the Generally it means being open to con- we changed our . Now compare possibility of being closed-minded (get sidering new and different ideas. This, I this to people’s faith in alternative reme- your head around that one!). suppose, is where people get confused dies, astrology, or . My mother’s I should mention that I am a skeptic about being “open-minded” and being belief in these practices will never budge and an atheist. I am also a psychologist “gullible.” Open-mindedness is not be- because it is not based on any reliable and as such am well aware of the placebo lieving everything you hear; it is having a foundation and thus cannot be disproved. effect, confirmation bias, and other phe- healthy middle-ground of accepting Let me clarify one more thing. I still nomena with which I work every day. I some things and rejecting others. But remember trying to predict my day by think science is wonderful because it’s a how do we determine which claims we reading horoscopes. I also used to think great way of getting to the truth and should believe and which we should that walking around barefoot might learning new things about ourselves and throw on the proverbial rubbish heap? jeopardize my childbearing chances, and the world in which we live. My mother The simplest way is to ask, “How likely is I even good-naturedly tried a few drops is also a psychologist, but this is where this to be true?” This is where science can of homeopathic solution here and there. our mentalities part ways: she is into as- help us gather enough evidence to decide I wasn’t always averse to these ideas; I trology, alternative therapies, life energy, whether to accept or reject an idea. considered them, tried them, and then feng shui, and womb colds. She believes Without evidence, there is only the decided to reject them for lack of evi- that science is a faith, just like religion. blind belief that something is true even dence that they worked. Her method of determining the truth though there is no proof to show that it So who is the open-minded one? n behind these disciplines is not based on is. But surely this is the very definition of evidence because she does not trust “re- gullibility—believing something without search” or “science” but rather on what any good reason to do so. The more I Katja Petrovic lives in Mel- bourne, Australia, and is cur- sounds good to her. Or perhaps things thought about it, the more being gullible rently undertaking a mas- her grandmother used to say. In her seemed closed-minded, as there is noth- ter’s degree in psychology at mind, I am closed-minded and she is ing that can change your belief. Com- Monash University. open-minded. Could this be true? pared to this, science is the more flexible

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[FORUM

Help! I’m Being Followed by Ancient Aliens!

KENNETH L. FEDER

he Palatki site is located in the Coconino National very good evidence for those ancient as- tronauts visiting Earth. First of all, how Forest, just west of Sedona, arizona. In a region where do you explain the fact that the Maya people can visit the massive cliff dwellings of Mesa had a base-12 number system? Doesn’t T that prove that the Maya were an alien Verde, few bother making the trip to this tiny jewel of a race with six fingers on each hand?” place with its swirl of massive red rocks enveloping the liv- “actually that’s not the case,” I ing space of the ancient Sinagua people. Only about fifty pointed out, “the Maya didn’t have a or sixty tourists visit the site each day, so at any particular base-12 system. Theirs was a base-20 system.” time you have the place pretty much to yourself and the “Okay, base-12, base-20. Whatever. one or two volunteer docents who monitor it. It’s just that the Maya system allowed them to count so high, so much higher than would be necessary for a simple as a result, I was more than a little “Do you mean Erich von Däniken?” farming people. It just doesn’t make any surprised during a recent visit when a I asked. sense.” tour group approached, huffing and “Yeah, that’s the guy. Von Däniken.” “Look,” I patiently explained, “the puffing up the trail to the site. I was “Von Däniken isn’t a scientist. He’s a Maya developed an impressive numeri- even more surprised when one of the fantasy writer as far as I’m concerned.” cal system. So what? The fact that they people in the group walked up to me as “Well, you really should reconsider could count high is in keeping with I was admiring one of the beautiful an- your skepticism. after all, there’s some their brilliant architectural, artistic, en- cient rock art panels and said: “Hey! I recognize you! You’re an archaeology professor, aren’t you? I’ve seen you on TV.” Imagine my reaction. I’m six miles Imagine my reaction. I’m six miles up a dirt up a dirt road in the middle of arizona, and my television fame precedes me! I road in the middle of Arizona, and my television replied politely, even enthusiastically, fame precedes me! I replied politely, “Yup. That’s me.” “Wow! How wonderful running into even enthusiastically, “Yup. That’s me.” you here. I just saw you on a show about that scientist who believes in ancient as- tronauts. What’s his name?”

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gineering, and calendrical achievements. The Maya were smart. That proves they were, well, smart. That doesn’t prove they were extraterrestrials.” “Oh, okay. Well, I just think you need to keep an open mind.” “My mind is open, always; I just haven’t seen any evidence to support the ancient astronaut hypothesis.” We shook hands and, grinning, my new friend walked away. My encounter exemplifies so much of what is wrong about the ancient astro- naut belief. Let’s ignore the inconvenient fact that there is absolutely no material, archaeological evidence for it: no laser guns found in neat stratigraphic context next to the bones of woolly mammoths, no light sabers secreted in Egyptian tombs, and no Star Trek–style communi- cators reverentially placed in Hopewell burial mounds. There’s another thing just as fundamentally wrong here: There is no need for a hypothesis of technologically sophisticated aliens dispensing knowl- edge to ancient human beings. The archaeological record shows clearly that our human ancestors were enormously intelligent and resourceful. They were more than capable of devel- oping sophisticated technologies on their own. Rather than exhibiting a pat- tern of new ideas appearing magically and without antecedents at ancient sites, the actual record shows lengthy devel- opmental sequences—in the domestica- tion of plants and animals, the evolution A dwelling of the ancient Sinagua people in the Coconino National Forest (top). Ancient rock art panel of the Kenneth L. Feder is author of Egyptian pyramids, metallurgy, and Sinagua people (bottom). of The Encyclopedia of Dubi- so on. The development of these things ous Archaeology and didn’t occur overnight; they weren’t “air- Frauds, Myths, and Myster- ies: Science and Pseudo- lifted” to Earth from another planet. In- by visitors from outer space is to grossly science in Archaeology. He stead, the stories of these accomplish- underestimate the intelligence and ca- is professor of anthropology ments are filled with the very human pabilities of our ancestors and to ignore at Central Connecticut State University and a pattern of trial and error, fits and starts, the enormously fascinating actual ar- Committee for Skeptical Inquiry fellow and missteps and leaps forward. chaeological record. SKEPTICAL INqUIRER consulting editor. This first appeared on the Archaeology Blog, ohio- To assume that the achievements of and you don’t need six fingers on archaeology.blogspot.com. ancient humanity were made possible each hand to understand that. n

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[FORUM

Perpetual Discussion!

MARK LEVY

s a patent attorney, I am occasionally ap- proached by a client with an idea for an ap- A paratus or method to achieve . Writer Dimitry Rotstein recently stated (“The Perpetual quest,” SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, September/October 2011) perpetual motion devices are intended to generate persistent mo- tion with no energy source. They are expected to run forever. This, of course, is a violation of the First Law of Thermodynamics, which states that energy cannot be created but may only be con- verted from one form to another. True, Einstein modified the First Law by proving that energy can be converted from mass, but, as far as physi- cists know, neither mass nor energy can be created ab initio.

When clients who seem normal in magnets, and liquids—to every other respect describe their per- do more work than could petual motion machines with a view to- normally be performed ward obtaining a patent, they invariably with the energy provided grow animated, defensive, and, of to the system. course, possessive. Curiously, this by it- although the united Figure 1. Design for a perpetual motor granted a patent in 1882 self is not an unusual occurrence in a States Patent and Trade - patent attorney’s office. a certain degree mark Office is obligated of paranoia is actually healthy for an in- to reject patent applications that violate wheel, F, engaging with a pinion, G, ventor, since an inventor cannot obtain laws of nature, occasionally patent ex- mounted on a shaft, H, which is to be a patent if the inventive idea was dis- aminers make mistakes. Consider u.S. driven. a pivoted box, K, is connected closed more than one year prior to filing Patent No. 257,103 (Figure 1), issued on both to the connecting rod, E, and to a the patent application. I often say my april 25, 1882, to John Sutliff Sr. for pivot point (unlabeled). Disposed on clients come in one of two flavors: para- “Motor.” a water tank, B, has a pivoting the upper surface of the box, K, is a noid and very paranoid. tubular lever, a. The long, hollow arm heavy ball, L, that is free to roll from In the eighteenth and nineteenth of the lever, a, terminates in a bulb or side to side. The underside of the box, centuries inventors tried to work with hollow vessel, C. The other, shorter arm, K, is attached to a bellows, M, from simple machines—levers, weights, D, of the lever is connected by means of which a flexible tube, N, leads to a hol- counterweights, wheels, pendulums, a connecting rod, E. Rod E has a cog low shaft of tubular lever, a.

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In operation, the bulb or vessel, C, is filled with air and naturally floats in the water tank, B. This lowers the shorter arm of the lever, D. Cog wheel, F, and pinion, G, are rotated, while the right side of box, K, is lowered, so the ball, L, rolls to the right side of the box, K, in- creasing the weight on that right side of the box, K. as one end of the box, K, is lowered, the left side of the box attached to the bellows, M, is raised, whereby all of the air is removed from the bulb, C, and lever tube, a, causing the bulb, C, to sink. The shorter arm, D, of the lever, a, is thereby raised, and the wheel, F, which has made a half revolution when the lever, a, and bulb, C, were raised, will now complete its revolution. The box, K, is tilted again, the ball, L, resting on it rolls to the left, compressing the bellows, M, and forcing the air into the bulb, C, and tubular lever, a, causing the Figure 2. Design for a perpetual motion machine granted a patent in 1959 same to rise, etc. In this way, the bulb, C, continues to rise and fall; ball, L, con- tinues to reciprocate between the ex- tremes of box, K; bellows, M, continues patent, No. 2,886,976 (Figure 2), for a system itself, without however react- to expand and compress; cog wheel, F, ing on or otherwise influencing the continues to rotate; and shaft, H, con- perpetual motion machine. The inven- tor was Norman L. Dean and the frequency or amplitude of the said tinues to turn in one direction. all of oscillatory movement. this supposedly goes on for an indefinite patent title was “System for Convert ing Dean’s patent is not a testament to time, without applying further energy to Rotary Motion into unidirectional the principle that perpetual motion ma- the system. Needless to say, an actual, Motion.” Through an elaborate system chines work, but that, with enough working motor was never built. of gears, clutches, counterweights— electromechanical legerdemain, even By the twentieth century, inventors and, oh yes, electromagnets—Dean people trained in technical fields can be graduated from mechanical devices to convinced the Patent Office examiner fooled. theories for conserving or creating en- that his sky hook was patentable. The best way to handle an inventor ergy that relied on electricity and even Simply stated, Dean’s invention in- who is convinced that his or her perpet- nuclear power. In the last few years, for cluded ual motion machine will work is for the example, I have seen a proposed system an oscillatory movement of a freely patent attorney to request a working for operating an electric car indefinitely suspended inertia mass or of a plu- prototype. The next step is for the at- without a battery charge, a symbiotic rality of such masses . . . produced by the rotation of a mass or masses torney not to be surprised when the in- electric motor/generator system that around an axis or axes and by limit- ventor doesn’t return. n will never run down, and a nuclear gen- ing the degrees of freedom of move- erator that the inventor believed would ment of said freely suspended mass or masses, and in which the oscilla- last as long as its electrically conductive Mark Levy is a patent attorney wires could be maintained at absolute tory movement of the system pro- duces a continuous series of unidirec- with Hin man, Howard and Kat- zero, with zero resistance. tional impulses which may be tell in Bingham ton, New York. On May 19, 1959, once again the transmitted to a suitable load device He has degrees in physics, Patent and Trademark Office granted a or which may act on the carrier of the law, and creative writing.

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[BOOK REVIEWS

The Parameters of Pseudoscience DAVID MORRISON

keptics often say they are trying to expose pseudoscience, but in Sreality we tend to use this term loosely. Creationism, homeopathy, al - The Pseudoscience Wars: Immanuel Velikovsky and the Birth ternative medicine, and cold fusion are of the Modern Fringe. clearly pseudoscientific, but what about By Michael D. Gordin. University of Chicago Press, , 2012. ancient aliens, uFOs, alien abductions, ISBN: 978-0226304427. 304 pp. Hardcover, $29.00 , crystals, the Moon hoax, and many other claims investigated in the pages of the SKEPTICaL INquIRER? are these examples of pseudoscience, just bad science, or perhaps not related to science at all? beled as bad science or non-science, on without the support of any organized One definition of pseudoscience the assumption that they will self-de- religious or political institutions. presents it as claims that are presented struct and be quickly forgotten. Many readers of the SKEPTICaL IN- as scientific but do not adhere to valid Gordin’s highly readable book ex - quIRER are familiar with the outlines of . another describes amines in detail several twentieth-cen- Velikovsky’s rise and fall. Gordin had pseudoscience as the misuse of methods tury examples of pseudoscience. Major access to the complete Velikovsky that seem scientific in order to undercut emphasis is on the pseudocosmologist archives held by Princeton university, real science. In his excellent new book Immanuel Velikovsky. His other prime which he used to document many de- The Pseudoscience Wars: Immanuel Ve- examples are Trofim Lysenko, who tails of this story. He places in context likovsky and the Birth of the Modern nearly destroyed mid-century Russian the “Velikovsky affair,” which dealt with Fringe, Princeton historian Michael D. genetics, and the advocates for Biblical the opposition to his 1950 book Worlds Gordin asserts that scientists only apply creationism who attempted to establish in Collision. One of many controversies the label of pseudoscience—which he a scientific basis for a planet less than he illuminates is the question whether defines as “doctrines that are non-sci- ten thousand years old. was Velikovsky’s book was reviewed (or ref- ence but pretend to be, or aspire to be, a threat be cause of the personal support ereed) before publication. The fact is or are simply mistaken for scientific”— given by Stalin and the Soviet Commu- that it was reviewed by several scientists to ideas that they feel are threatening nist Party, which virtually outlawed re- who said, in effect, even though it was because of their public appeal. It is the search that challenged Lysenko and bunk as science, the book was still likely way pseudoscience masquerades as real thereby had a strong negative impact on to be popular enough that its publica- science and is used to attack real science Soviet agriculture. In a sense, Lysenko tion would be a sound business deci- that sets it apart from the easily dis- could be held responsible for the death sion. missed claims of cranks and charlatans. of millions in the u.S.S.R. The cre- That is exactly what happened. No advocate for an unorthodox per- ationist authors who developed “flood Scien tists excoriated the book for its spective ever calls his or her work pseu- geology,” primarily George McCready obvious failings, but many non-scientist doscience. This is a term of oppro- Price, Henry Morris, and John Whit- reviewers lavished praise upon it. This brium, assigned by scientists who are comb, have been (and continue to be) a deep division between the “two cul- defending the consensus. Gordin notes threat because of support by Christian tures” of science and the humanities that in practice, the term pseudoscience fundamentalists who use these ideas to came as a shock to many scientists. Ve- is generally reserved for ideas that are attack evolutionary biology in particu- likovsky, while of course pleased that perceived as major challenges to sci- lar and science in general. Velikovsky is his book rose to the top of the bestseller ence—especially in the eyes of the pub- different, in that he achieved substantial lists, was also stung by its unanimous lic. Less threatening ideas are simply la- fame and influence on his own merits condemnation by scientists. He never

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[NEW AND NOTABLE

understood their criticism of planets rap- ALL WE HAVE TO FEAR: Psychiatry’s Transfor mation of Natu- idly shifting orbits within historic time, Philral Senter Anxietiesis a intovertebrate Mental paleontolo- Disorders. Allan Horwitz and Jerome and he sought their recognition as a bona gistWakefield. with a specialty Two sociologists in dinosaur (and paleo- coauthors of The Loss of biology.Sadness He) received discuss thehis PhDever-increasing in biologi- professional diagnosis fide scholar. He did not do this by pub- calof sciences anxiety disordersfrom Northern in America (up from 5 percent of the pop- lishing papers or making presentations at Illinoisulation University in 1970 into 200350 percent and teaches today) and suggest that the root scientific conferences, but rather by court- biologycause courses is over-medicalization at Fayetteville Stateof normal and common anxiety. ing individual scientists—especially his UniversityOxford University in . Press, 2012, He has 320 pp., $29.95. Princeton neighbor albert Einstein. published forty-plus articles on di- These efforts at personal diplomacy were nosaur paleontology, the natural his- not successful. Scientists immediately rec- tory of West African snakes, and the creation- THE DATA GAME: Controversies in Social Science Statistics evolution debate. Email: ognized that his planetary collisions, and (Fourth Ed.). Mark H. Maier and Jennifer Imazeki. Intended [email protected]. his suggestion that electromagnetism as a supplement to college and university courses in statis- rather than gravitation dominated plane- tics and social sciences, this readable book provides an in- tary motions, were (in Einstein’s terms) teresting and well-referenced discussion of the uses (and “crazy.” Velikovsky was simply not speak- abuses) of statistics in controversial social issues, including ing the same language as the scientific crime, education, economy, wealth, and public opinion polls. community. With an index, summaries, and case studies in each chapter, this book is a useful addition to popular statistics books by authors such as John Allen Paulos and Joel Best. M.E. Sharpe, Inc., 2012, 328 pp., $29.95. No advocate for an As it happens, insistence unorthodox perspective THE ENLIGHTENMENT VISION: Science, Rea son, and the ever calls his or her work Promisethat of tyrannosaurs a Better Future. Stuartand Jordan. A retired NASA pseudoscience. This is a ziphodontphysicist and theropods a CSI Fellow, Jordan were argues that the historical Western Enlightenment remains the right vision for a higher term of opprobrium, assigned civilizationherbivores but that is wenot have neces- fallen short; and, more broadly, by scientists who are thatsary sometime for the in the creationist future, enlightenment values will ex- pand and take hold in currently unpredictable ways. The book defending the consensus. isdoctrine dedicated to of Paul original Kurtz. Prome her- theus Books, 2013, 295 pp., $26.00. bivory.

But this is only half the story. It seemed likely that for all the immediate REAL WOLFMEN: True Encounters in Modern America. Linda S. popularity of his book, he would quickly Godfrey. The author, who claims to be “America’s foremost au- be forgotten. What makes this story so thority on modern-day ,” collects dozens of (pre- interesting, what elevates Velikovsky to sumably infallible) eyewitness reports to argue that were- the rank of true pseudoscientist, was the wolves may roam the country; though far too credulous, this resurrection of interest in his work during skepticism-free book provides an interesting cryptozoological survey and discussion of modern reports. the Vietnam War years, when he became Tarcher/Penguin, 2012, 333 pp., $15.95. a darling of the counterculture, gaining support among humanist scholars as well as rebellious students. He was invited to speak on campuses, conferences were held THE UNTOLD STORY OF CHAMP: A Social History of America’s to discuss his ideas, and his books again Loch Ness Monster. Robert Bar tholomew. New York-born his- ascended the best-seller charts. Precisely torian Bartholo mew tells the full story of the alleged monster’s rich, colorful history—separating fact, because of his rejection by the scientific fiction, and speculation—and the equally colorful actions and community, he became the symbol of the personalities of modern-day monster hunters. State Univer- lone scholar defying the conservative es- sity of New York Press, 2012, 253 pp., $24.95. tablishment. Gordin also explores the relationships —Benjamin Radford and Kendrick Frazier between different pseudoscientists. Su- perficially, there were striking similarities

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[REVIEWS

between Velikovsky and the creationist the creationists preferred direct attribu- entists made hundreds of presentations positions of Price in The New Geology tion to acts of God. In the end, each of research results, ranging from the (1923) and Whitcomb and Morris in side ostracized the other and went its minutia of modeling the feedback of The Genesis Flood (1961). all rejected own way, not acknowledging any com- cloud formation on the greenhouse ef- the uniformitarian geology of their monality of ideas. fect to documenting the incredible rate time. all sought to explain many geo- In his final chapter, Gordin turns to of loss of ice. Leaders of the sci- logical features in terms of recent cata- the new phase of pseudoscience, prac- entific community made impassioned strophic events. and both sides sought ticed by a few rogue scientists them- statements about the threat we face and evidence to support or verify events in selves. Climate change denialism is the the necessity for action. Yet outside the the Old Testament, such as Noah’s prime example, where a handful of sci- flood and the escape of the Israelites entists, allied with an effective PR ma- halls of science, polls show that half of from Egypt. Velikovsky began corre- chine, are publicly challenging the sci- americans deny the reality of climate spondence with Price in 1951, and he entific consensus that global warming change, while Senator Jim Inhofe re- sent the manuscript of his second book, is real and is due primarily to human cently announced not only that human Earth in Upheaval, to Price for his com- consumption of fossil fuels. Scientists induced climate change is a hoax, but ments. Price replied that “While I have have watched in disbelief that as the ev- also boasted, “we have won” in the court not always been able to agree with some idence for global warming has become of public opinion. Today pseudoscience of the details. I have admired the hand- ever more solid, the deniers have been is still with us, and is as dangerous a some way in which you have demol- increasingly successful in the public and challenge to science as it ever was in the ished Charles Lyell as well as [Charles political arena. One has only to attend past. n Darwin].” Later in a review, Price de- a meeting of atmospheric and climate scribed “Earth in Upheaval as one of the scientists, such as the December 2012 David Morrison is a planetary scientist and di- most thought-provoking books of american Geophysical union, to ap- rector of the Carl Sagan Center for the Study of modern times.” However, Velikovsky preciate the overwhelming support and Life in the Universe at the SETI Institute. He is a and the creationists soon fell into dis- increasing sophistication of our under- Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Fellow and SKEP- pute. Velikovsky sought naturalistic ex- stating of human-caused global warm- TICAL INqUIRER Con tributing Editor and has received planations for the Bible stories, while ing. at this gathering, thousands of sci- awards for science popular writing.

Flawed Look at Monsters

TERENCE HINES

he intent of Medusa’s Gaze and Vam- pire’s Bite is to provide scientific ex- Tplanations for various monsters Medusa’s Gaze and Vampire’s Bite: found in historical legend and literature The Science of Monsters up through the monsters of today as seen, By Matt Kaplan. Scribners, New York, 2012. ISBN 978-1- mostly, in film. Had Kaplan succeeded in 4516-6798-1. 244 pp. Hardcover, $26.00 this task, he would have produced an ex- citing and interesting book. Instead, the book is filled with over-explanations, just- so stories, and college-level film criticism, all leavened by one howling error. e topics covered are arranged in doesn’t really belong since it does exist). scary in the first place. Why do snakes, to rough chronological order. us, the first e explanations for ancient beasts are this day, generate fear? Kaplan argues, half of the book deals with monsters from often fairly reasonable. For example, convincingly, that the fear of snakes is ancient myths and legends such as the monsters that are giant versions of already part of human’s evolutionary heritage. Nemean lion, chimeras, the Minotaur, scary animals are scary because, well, a ey posed real danger as proto-humans Medusa, Charybdis, and the like. But giant version of something already scary evolved. So there is an advantage to modern monsters are tossed in too— (e.g., a lion) is even scarier. Snakelike avoiding snakes even if one has not had a and the (the latter monsters are scary because snakes are direct scary experience with them.

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REVIEWS]

ere is, however, a bit of a problem and internal organs of puffer fish native much, much older. e New Standard with this explanation of the commonality to Haiti. In accepting Davis’s claims Ka- Jewish Encyclopedia (Facts on File, 1992) of snakes as ancient monsters. Spiders, plan ignores the overwhelming scientific notes that the legend dates from at least like snakes, continue to generate fear. Spi- literature that shows that 1) the “zombie the fifteenth century. e Jewish Encyclo- ders, like snakes, posed a hazard to hu- powder” that Davis claims had TTX in it pedia, vol. 6 (Ktav Publishing, 1964, mans while we were evolving. However, didn’t and 2) even if it did, TTX in any reprint of the 1901–1906 edition) states spiders, unlike snakes, did not serve as the quantity cannot produce zombies. TTX that “In the Middle ages arose the belief basis for legends of any ancient monsters, is a nerve poison that does not get into in the possibility of infusing life into a as far as I know. the brain. In terms of motor control, it af- clay or wooden figure of a human being, Kaplan does occasionally go over- which figure was termed a ‘golem’ by board by trying to come up with a specific writers of the eighteenth century” (p. 37). explanation for every little variation in a Sadly, missing from this chapter is any myth. For example, on pages 54 and 55 Kaplan swallows hook, line, discussion of that most modern of myth- there is a discussion of the possible factual and sinker the long-refuted ical creatures, the chupacabra. e cre- basis of the “cruel bellowing” of the claim of Wade Davis that ation of the myth of this creature was ably Minotaur. ere is much discussion of zombies are real and that told by Ben Radford in his 2011 book caves and other geologic phenomena. But . isn’t it just simpler to explain the details they can be created Chapter 9 is devoted to “Terror Res- of this, and other, myths as devices to by witch doctors. urrected—Dinosaurs.” Here Kaplan dis- make them scarier? Or, as amazon re- cusses the recreation of our old thunder viewer sonabeta pointed out in a Novem- lizard friends in the movies and the pos- ber 20, 2012, review, “People sometimes sibility for real recreation through use of just make things up.” fects only the skeletal musculature. Its dinosaur DNa, which, of course, is the Similarly, on page 102 the discussion specific effect is to render victims para- theme of the movie Jurassic Park. e dis- turns to dragons. e question is why lyzed, but it is not the stiff (rigid) paralysis cussions of both the film and dinosaur dragon myths are not consistent across of zombie legend but a flaccid paralysis DNa leave much to be desired. Kaplan’s time and place—some with wings and where muscles lose their tone. In addi- critique of the problems with using DNa some without, some breathing fire and tion, in nonlethal doses TTX causes nau- to recreate a dinosaur does not come close some not. Well, dragons aren’t real so why sea and vomiting. e idea that just the to that of Desalle and Lindley in their should all stories about them be consis- right dose of TTX could transform a per- 1997 book Science of Jurassic Park. Kaplan tent? Still, Kaplan’s explanation for the son into a zombie and keep them that does nicely discuss the problems of recre- fire-breathing part is plausible and I won’t way while they were walking around ating a species that would find itself with- spoil it for the reader by giving it away being productive slaves is absurd. and its out its natural ecosystem to live in and here. absurdity has been known since the late would thus be confined to some sort of Chapter 6 on “Hauntings—Demons, 1980s. Sadly, Kaplan obviously didn’t get enclosures. However, even here he stum- Ghosts, Spirits” is long on description of the memo. For a more detailed discussion bles by an embarrassing acceptance of the these phenomena and short on explana- with appropriate references, see my article characterization of chaos theory taken di- tions. Hypnogogic and hypnopompic “zombies and Tetrodotoxin” in the rectly from the movie—a characteriza- hallucinations go unmentioned, although May/June 2008 SKEPTICaL INquIRER tion that is typical Hollywood fantasy. In there is a brief discussion of sleep atonia (vol. 32, no. 3, pp. 60–62). the film the character Dr. Ian Malcolm and sleep paralysis. But the full power of e last few chapters change focus (played by Jeff Goldblum) says that chaos hypnogogia—with all of its attendant from creatures of ancient myth and leg- theory means that “biological systems are hallucinations—to convince people that end to more recent creations, especially uncontrollable by [their] nature and ghosts are real is not made clear at all. alien abductions and movie monsters. e therefore inherently threatening” (p. 187). is is a serious omission. discussions here are quite poor, almost us, no matter what protective measures e book does contain one major and sophomoric, especially where movie are taken, any recreated dinosaurs will inexcusable howler in Chapter 7, a chap- monsters are concerned. e first topic in break free and terrorize the world. Or at ter dealing with , zombies, and Chapter 8, “e Created,” is the golem. least the local natives. is is Hollywood werewolves. Kaplan swallows hook, line, Here either through bad writing or igno- nonsense. It bears about as much rela- and sinker the long-refuted claim of rance (or maybe both) Kaplan seems to tionship to actual chaos theory as the Wade Davis that zombies are real and state that there was only one golem, in view of quantum mechanics espoused by that they can be created by witch doctors Prague, and the whole golem legend New age proponents does to actual using the poison tetrodotoxin (TTX), dates only from 1909. In fact, there is quantum mechanics. In fact, chaos theory found, among other places, in the skin ample evidence that the golem legend is deals with systems in which tiny changes

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in initial conditions can have very large aliens are visiting Earth but not being de- Perhaps this review should just stop effects on the state of these systems at tected by “all the space scanning technol- as well. In summary, the book does con- later times. e theory does not allow the ogy that has been developed during the tain a few interesting insights into the impossible to happen or even predict that past decades” (p. 199). His answer? “It is factual backgrounds of several legendary the very unlikely will. an enigma.” No, it’s not, as even a slight creatures. But in general it is poorly re- e final chapter, “Extraterrestrial familiarity with the skeptical literature on searched and written. Is it good enough reat—aliens,” suffers from much the uFOs and alien abduction would have for me to recommend that my univer- same problem as the section on ghosts: made clear. e rest of the chapter wan- sity library purchase a copy? No. I make long on description but short on expla- ders in sort of a haze through various the same recommendation for the read- ers of this review. nation. e chapter starts with a descrip- alien-themed science-fiction movies, in- tion of the Betty and Barney Hill abduc- cluding an interesting digression on par- Terence Hines is professor of psychology at tion case. It then states that: “Countless asites and how they can change animal Pace University and author of Pseudoscience tales of abductions and bizarre sightings behavior. and then it stops. It doesn’t end. and the Paranormal. He is a Committee for followed” (p. 198). Kaplan then asks why It just stops. Skeptical Inquiry Fellow.

[INBOX

ment. Both give results that are refuse, you are assumed to be ir reproducible and subject to in- guilty. I would like to see the CSI terpretation. Both have been do a careful study and expose of shown by controlled studies to be the use of as “lie-de- unreliable. and both are fashion- tectors.” The government should able and satisfying in their own be pressured to abandon this time period. modern-day form of I was first alerted to the fraud and use more reliable methods to of the “lie-detector” by two cases: evaluate the honesty of suspects a county assistant treasurer who and job applicants. was falsely accused of embezzle- L.G. Wade Jr., PhD ment, and a distraught widower Walla Walla, Washington who was falsely accused of mur- dering his wife. Both of these ac- Regarding Dr. Wade’s suggestion to cused “failed” a exam CSI, see the feature article “Explor- (whatever that means) and were ing Controversies in the Art and immediately convicted in the Science of Polygraph Testing” by newspapers, with their reputa- John Ruscio in our January/Febru- tions destroyed. They were both ary 2005 issue, plus our News & subsequently exonerated. The Comment article “NAS Report Says polygraph measures indicators of Polygraph Testing Too Flawed for stress, and honest people who are Security Screening” (SI, Jan - falsely accused of heinous crimes uary/February 2003) and the are likely to “fail” the exam. On Commentary “Polygraphs and the the other hand, hardened crimi- National Labs: Dangerous Ruse nals show little stress when they Under mines National Security” by are asked about their crimes. Alan P. Zelicoff, SI, July/August unlike phrenology, polygraph 2001. Several of these, plus others, tests are still used and accepted are available on our website by law-enforcement and govern- (www.csicop.org/si). — Editor ment, and they are absolutely re- Phrenology and ology has been replaced with its quired for a range of government Polygraph Tests modern-day version, the use of jobs (FBI, CIa, and police agen- Herbert Spencer did take phre - the polygraph as a “lie-detecting” cies). What should you do when nology seriously for some time, Geoffrey Dean’s article on phre- machine. The parallels are over- you are asked to take a “poly- but he was not an “american n ology (SI, November/December whelming. Both are based on graph exam” for a job or to prove psychologist.” He was a British 2012) is an excellent cautionary experience, not science. Both usu- your innocence of a crime? If you philosopher, a dabbler in biology, tale about pseudoscience that is ally work to verify the practition- agree to take one, you are placing psychology, and sociology, the based on experience, not con- ers’ preconceptions. Both are used your reputation in the hands of a man who coined the phrase “sur- trolled scientific studies. as I read to determine criminality. Both who can proclaim you vival of the fittest” and is widely this article, I realized that phren - have been required for employ- to be guilty or innocent. If you regarded as the last serious

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philosopher who tried to organ- effect, Tag away is being falsely putational ability is certainly a for better or for worse. ize all of philosophy around a advertised as “homeopathic.” In necessary, but not a sufficient, con- It doesn’t happen to be true single concept—his being Dar- either case, I expect we will be dition for intelligence. It is espe- that singulatarians as a group are win ian evolution. as an early “so- seeing more Tag away ads and cially gratifying to see Pigliucci rich white men. Many are impe- cial Darwinist,” he is more an ob- need to be wary. point to the inherent dualism in cunious students and struggling ject of scorn than of serious study this theory (with Descartes’s third-world programmers. Some David W. Briggs, PhD today, which is perhaps a pity. mind/body replaced by soft- of the women whose well- Marion, Massachusetts ware/hardware). He goes on to known work I find intriguing are arthur M. Shapiro say, “There is no reason to believe Lisa Rein, Natasha Vita-More, Dept. of Evolution and that that’s the way consciousness anna Salamon, and Heather Ecology Medieval Islamic Maps arises, and there are good reasons Knight. Seminars led by Getnet university of California aseffa, a singulatarian of color, in The article on an Islamic “golden to think that it is instead a bio- Davis, California addis ababa, Ethiopia, have at- era” of science (“a Golden age of logical process, tightly linked to tracted as many as 700 partici- Harmony? Mis representing Sci- other biological processes and pants with scarcely a white face ence . . .,” SI, November/De - substrates typical of the kind of Home-Grown in the room. But why should that cember 2012) includes a photo- animal we are.” aristotle could Homeopathy matter? White men from Silicon graph of a map produced during hardly have said it better. He ar- Valley have contributed a great that era. The article said nothing gued that psychology, the study Edzard Ernst’s “Homeopathy: deal to many fields and the ben- about the map. as shown, the of what makes us human, is a a Critique of Current Clinical efits have spread to the rest of the map made no sense to me, but part of biology. and what makes Research” (SI, November/De c - world. turned 180 degrees to the orien- us human is our soul (psyche), ember 2012) is an excellent Why should we care if Ray tation we are familiar with, with which is not something immate- review of the poor quality of re- Kurzweil takes 150 vitamin North as up, it makes perfect rial (like mind for Descartes), but search on homeopathic treat - tablets a day? This is just a per- sense. is rather the sum of capacities of ment outcomes. How ever, I don’t sonal eccentricity not shared by I can clearly make out the the body: it is our ability to grow envy him the task he had of wad- other singularity researchers, and Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the and take in nutrients (like ing through the quagmire of this it is irrelevant to the scientific is- arabian Peninsula and the Nile, plants), move and perceive (like European research to warn its sues. and why does the fact that and moving north, the Mediter - animals) and understand and readers of being sucked in by it. human intelligence is a biological ranean, Crete, the Bosporus, the reason (as only we can). The re- Closer to home, there is a process mean that computers Black Sea, and the Caspian Sea. alization that living bodies have new homeopathic remedy being can’t achieve intelligence? Birds’ Moving westward across the capacities beyond the mere ex- touted on TV and even in pop- and insects’ wings are biological Mediter ranean the features are tension of matter gives this bio- up adds on the New York Times structures, tightly linked to other less familiar, but you can make logical account of human intelli- website. It is Tag away ($19.95 biological processes in their bod- out Sicily, Italy, Sardinia, and the gence a decided advantage over plus S&H), which claims to re- ies, but that doesn’t mean that Gates of Hercules. any kind of dualist account. move skin tags. Plenty of testi- airplanes need biological wings. It seems a fairly remarkable Pigliucci has shown once more monials can be found with a web and what’s wrong with scientists placement of the border between that aristotle still lives. search, but I have yet to find a le- trying to build something that land and sea for a time when dis- gitimate medical evaluation of George Englebretsen has been anticipated in science tances, sizes, and directions were this product. My family physi- Professor of Philosophy fiction? Many important inven- known only approximately. cian tells me, “It doesn’t work. Bishop’s university tions were anticipated in fiction Only surgery removes skin tags.” Lance Benson Sherbrooke, quebec before they became reality. Tag away’s active ingredient Milton, Nova Scotia If Pigliucci wants to argue is reported to be “thuja occiden- that superhuman computer in- talis” (Eastern white cedar), Taner Edis responds: Massimo Pigliucci’s “Singularity telligence is a bad thing and we which Wikipedia says was used as Pseu do science” is marred by shouldn’t build it, fair enough. Most medieval Arab maps have medicinally by american Indians inaccuracies and pseudoskeptical Many singularitarians share his south at the top. For that matter, a and used in the nineteenth cen- rhetorical devices. He resorts to concern about the risks. Hugo de lot of medieval Christian maps tury to treat warts, ringworm, ad hominem attacks, ridicule, Garis has written a book about have east at the top. and thrush. Since homeopathic and ideological posturing to what he fears will be a war of ar- medicines are produced by mul- sidestep some important ques- tificial intelligences. But it is tiple dilutions of the active ingre- tions. So what if Pigliucci finds it doubtful that there is any author- dient, I asked the Tag away web- Singularity: “obscene” for “rich white men” to ity in the world that could effec- site for information on the Pseudoscience…or Not? “salivate after their own mortal- tively stifle scientific progress in homeopathic dilution of its in- ity.” That’s like arguing that this area. The same issue was gredients, but the reply only re- It’s gratifying to see Mas - global warming is a fraud be- raised about the atomic bomb, peated the list of ingredients simo Pigliucci (SI, Nov em - cause al Gore flies around in but that doesn’t mean the science without further information. ber/December 2012) taking on private jets and makes millions of behind it was wrong. If Tag away is truly “homeo- Ray Kurzweil’s singularity theory. dollars from green energy com- If Pigliucci believes that pathic,” its active ingredient has The idea de pends on the compu- panies. In both cases, the validity human intelligence is a universal been diluted to a point that it can tational theory of mind, with of the ideas is independent of the ultimate that can never be sur- have no possible effect. If the ac- its mistaken assumption that motivations of the advocates. passed, that is more like a reli- tive ingredient is in a concentra- human intelligence is nothing Many things that critics have gious or metaphysical conviction tion strong enough to have some other than computation. Com- called obscene have come to pass, than a scientific conclusion. Do

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[LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

skeptics really want to use meta- Massimo Pigliucci’s article about silly, if not completely absurd! Do tween arguments against the idea physical assumptions such as the Singularity seemed more like you really think science fiction is of a Singularity (several of which Des cartes’s distinction between the author’s personal beliefs a completely accurate predictor are briefly sketched in the column) rex extensa and rex cogitans to re- rather than an in depth study of of the future? You must be aware and ridicule directed to Kurzweil solve scientific questions? Very the alleged future event. Whereas that there is a lot of science fic- qua guru of what I regard as a few singulatarians anticipate a I agree that there are people out tion where the robots do not try pseudoscientific movement. The purely symbolic mind anyway, there who go off the deep end, to take over the world and are same readers very likely would not many speculate about making the the likelihood of nonhuman in- helpers of humanity. Remember object to such ridicule were it di- human body immortal, adding telligence surpassing ours isn’t Data from Star Trek? In one of rected to a purveyor of pseudo- implants, or uploading the brain that far fetched. the Trek movies, Data had the science, which is what I regard to robots. Pigliucci and I differ regard- opportunity to become a Borg, Kurzweil to be, in this respect. Also, Future study is a risky busi- ing the limits of technology. I but he declined. There are even a to ask for an in-depth analysis in a ness, not amenable to the rigors have been designing integrated number of movies where robots single column seems to me to be rais- of laboratory science. There is the circuits for over thirty years and want to become human! ing the bar ridiculously high, direct- temptation to ridicule and reject have seen Moore’s law in action. Pigliucci also objects to up- ing criticism to a straw man (a log- scenarios we don’t like, while giv- While this can’t continue end- loading one’s mind or conscious- ical fallacy, as you know). ing the benefit of the doubt to lessly, we still have a way to go ness into another body. again, I never said that Singularitar- those that appeal to us. True before we hit fundamental limits. this has happened in many sci- ianism is only the toy of rich white skepticism needs to take a more Meanwhile, smart phones and ence fiction stories, so, it must be guys; I was referring in particular objective stance. Trend extrapola- other devices get “smarter” every possible, right? Did you see to the Singularity Institute gather- tion is an important tool for fu- year and, I would argue, their Avatar? His particular objection, ings in Silicon Valley, which are the turist analysis, and Ray Kurzweil users get dumber. “. . . they would likely find them- nerve center of the movement. And has collected the best evidence he Historically, computers have selves in a self-made hell. yes, skeptics should be interested also could find on many important been pursuing two main goals: Human psychology evolved time series and published it in de- more processing power and more in the social aspects of the move- along side a body capable of sen- ments they criticize, just like—for tail for others to criticize. He has memory. Nothing here suggests sations, emotions and so on—not instance—it helps realizing the pointed out the exponential na- intelligence. When I was a just pure thought.” This makes connection between climate change ture of many of the trends and teenager (in the 1950s), it was me wonder if Pigliucci even read denial and libertarian political po- made some thoughtful projec- believed that a computer would Kurzweil’s books! Kurzweil sitions, without which one would be tions. They have been extensively be as intelligent as a human if it spends much time discussing the puzzled by why so many smart and criticized by a great many serious could beat a human at chess. parts and functions of a human scientifically literate people (includ- thinkers. If Gordon Moore has That is now history. Of course body we would likely want to ing a good number of SI readers!) some disagreements with Kurz- the “intelligence bar” was then keep as well as those we would be reject a notion backed by plenty of weil about the application of raised to favor humans. Cogni- willing to discard. Emotions and empirical evidence and accepted by “Moore’s Law,” they deserve seri- tive science, combined with sensations are definitely among ous consideration. But Pigliucci semiconductor technology, may those he thinks we will want to the overwhelming majority of the doesn’t tell us what the differ- yet give us super-human intelli- keep. relevant scientific community. ences are, let alone why we should gence. Not to say that Mr. Kurz - Finally, I never said that AI is accept one view over the other. Those who say that “artificial” weil’s predictions are necessarily impossible, only that it needs to take He just argues from authority. intelligence is impossible could better than any particular science seriously the organic nature of the That shouldn’t be good enough argue the same for biological in- fiction story, they’re just not nec- only type of intelligence we know of, for the SKEPTICaL INquIRER. telligence: we evolved from one- essarily any less. our own. It is fine to gesture toward Readers looking for a serious celled animals that couldn’t think embodying intelligence in a robot, examination of the questions or reason. By logical extrapola- Richard “Gilligan” uschold but talk of “uploading” one’s own Pigliucci has raised might be in- tion, neither can we. (Probably Port Orange, Florida mind inside said robot is still fun- terested in these articles: 1) D. true!) damentally dualistic, and as far as Chalmers, “The Singularity: a Massimo Pigliucci responds: Gregory L. Schaffer I can tell is based on a seriously mis- Philo sophical analysis,” Journal Senior IC Design Engineer Predictably, my column on Ray guided concept of what intelligence of Consciousness Studies 17:7–65, Cupertino, California Kurzweil and the (not likely to is. Computers have gotten much 2010 and 2) S. Baum, B. Go- come) Singularity has generated a faster and their memory has in- ertzel, and T. Goertzel, “How number of passionate responses. It creased dramatically, but there is Long until Human-Level aI? Massimo Pigliucci objects to seems to me, however, that several not a shred of evidence that they Results from an Expert assess- many of Ray Kurzweil’s projec- of these are off the mark. For in- have gotten anywhere near human ment,” Technological Forecast ing tions related to the Singularity. stance, I did not argue on the basis intelligence because the latter isn’t and Social Change, Vol 78, No 1, Pigliucci objects to the idea of of a sci-fi television series, I used (simply) a function of speed of cal- January 2011, pages 185–195. human immortality, not because said series to make fun of certain culation and storage capacity. Skep- Ted Goertzel of some logical or scientific rea- Singularitarian views. And speak- tics should pay attention to evi- [email protected] sons (many of which have been ing of making fun, clearly some dence, and Singularitarians—so (Ted Goertzel recently re- given by others), but because it readers of SI could use a bit more of far—have only wishful thinking tired as a sociology professor violates the plot of a particular a light-hearted spirit, since they ob- and (some) science fiction on their at Rutgers university.) science fiction series! That’s just viously missed the difference be- side of the argument.

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Curse That Painting! Poll Data Alarming (Not likely.) There fore, according noses. Observe the similarity of to Mr. Krause, the end points are medieval paintings to that of the I believe Polidoro is incorrect in Kendrick Frazier’s assessment of identical because you cannot face on the shroud: long thin his explanation of the smiling the Gallup Poll’s survey about draw a line anywhere. If you re- noses, disproportionately large portrait of Teresa Rovere (“Curse u.S. beliefs on evolution (News ally believe that, Mr. Krause, I faces compared to head size, and That Painting!” SI, Novem - and Comment, SI, Septem ber want to see you eat a raw chicken eyes placed high on the heads. ber/December 2012). almost all /Octo ber 2012) is a good exam- on camera. These similarities clearly show that the face of Jesus on the of us look through camera ple of the old saw “there are lies, Don Dilworth damnable lies, and statistics.” shroud more closely resembles viewfinders and we know from [email protected] the stylized and anatomically in- experience that they do not dis- While it is true that the survey accurate faces of medieval paint- tort the image significantly. The indicated little change in the per- centage of americans who reject ings than that of a real person. true explanation is related to the The Shroud of Turin: An evolution, bad as that is, over a My observations are consis- level of detail or frequency of Artist’s Perspective period of thirty years, it also re- tent with the hypothesis that the changes in detail, primarily lumi- Shroud of Turin is the work of a flected an alarming development I am a professional artist who has nance, we have available. When between 2011 and 2012, with the medieval artist. looking at the picture of the studied human anatomy and percentage of creationists jump- painted several portraits. I do not Robert a. Richert image we have a lot of detail and ing from 40 percent to 46 per- can see the shape of the mouth. believe that the face of Jesus on Richertart.com cent, while the believers in theis- the Shroud of Turin is an However, when looking at the tic evolution fell from 38 percent image seen through the anatomically accurate depiction to 32 percent and the advocates of a real person. Several years ago, Ouch! That Stings viewfinder, the detail is lost and of evolution without God drop - I met and spoke with Joe Nickell. the coarse shading is perceived ped from 16 percent to 15 per- Joe is an artist and skeptical in- as many readers noticed, the un- differently. You can get the same cent, re versing a rising trend vestigator who has studied the captioned illustration with the going back eleven years. Given effect by simply backing away Shroud of Turin extensively, “Skeptical Inquiree” column the increased importance of sci- from the picture: as the detail wrote a book on the subject “The Mysterious Bee Deaths” in entific literacy in a world con- disappears the smile appears. You [which used anatomical, icono- our January/February 2013 issue fronted by a myriad of complex can find examples on the Inter- graphic, and historical evidence to was not of a bee but of a wasp. — problems ranging from global net and my favorite is of a picture conclude that the elongated figure EDITOR warming to overpopulation, the that changes from Einstein to on the shroud was a work of French fact that after the improve- Marilyn Monroe as you move gothic art—supported by a four- ments seen in 2011 we are back away; search the web for “albert teenth-century bishop’s report that [FEEDBACK to the dismal levels of thirty Einstein Marilyn Monroe” and such an artist confessed—Editors], years ago is hardly grounds for The letters column is a forum on mat - you’ll soon find it. and appeared on numerous tele- celebration. ters raised in previous issues. Letters You can confirm that the vision programs. should be no longer than 225 words. viewfinder is not distorting the Dennis Middlebrooks I told Joe that to me the Due to the volume of letters we receive, image by pointing it at graph Brooklyn, New York image of Jesus’s head on the cloth not all can be published. Send letters paper; it will not be significantly resembles a common medieval to as email text (not attachments) to distorted. early Renaissance stylized depic- letters@csicop. org. In the subject line, Race Real tion of a person. Jesus’s face ap- provide your surname and informative Richard Turnock pears too large for the surround- identi fication, e.g.: “Smith Letter on Toronto, , Canada I was dismayed at Kenneth ing size of the head, and his eyes Jones evolution art icle.” In clude your Krause’s dogmatic statements are located too high. In addition name and ad dress at the end of the let- about race (SI, July/au gust to making faces too large, ama- ter. You may also mail your letter to the I was living in South Yorkshire 2012), which I find not typical of teur artists tend to place the eyes editor to 944 Deer Dr. NE, Albuquerque, when the Curse of the Crying the otherwise excellent articles in about 2/3 to 3/4 up from the NM 87122. Boy story blew up in 1985, and I your fine magazine. He says, in base of the chin to the top of the remember stories that copies of essence, that one cannot distin- head. Human eyes are actually the painting had defied attempts guish a black african from a located close to the middle of the to burn them. I came home one blond Swede because intermar- head. Check this out for yourself day and found my mother had riage can create intermediate next time you look in a mirror! been given a painting by a neigh- points. Because one cannot find These common amateur and bor—yes, it was the Crying Boy! any particular point of demarca- medieval artists’ characterizations I soon had it on a backyard bon- tion, the end points are identical. are based upon idealistic percep- fire—because I thought it was This is absurd. tions, not upon an attempt to- ghastly kitsch, not because I be- Mr. Krause, do you like fried ward anatomical accuracy or re- lieve in curses—and had no trou- chicken? (Probably yes.) Do you alism. ble at all in burning it! like to eat raw chicken? (Proba- also, a popular artistic styl- bly no.) Can you point to the ization in the Middle ages to Ray Ward precise instant when a raw early Renaissance was the exag- London, u.K. chicken be comes a fried chicken? geration of long, thin, European

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2013 65 March April 13 *_SI new design masters 1/31/13 9:54 AM Page 66

[ THE LAST LAUGH BENJAMIN RADFORD, EDITOR

SKEPTIC TRUMP CARDS

SKEPTICAL ANNIVERSARIES by

March 3, 1978: David Rorvik claims to have been in- volved in the first human cloning. A court later rules the story a hoax. March 12, 1973: Time magazine first documents how Stanford Research Institute had researched ’s abilities, believing them to be paranormal. March 18, 1913: Kansas becomes the first U.S. state to enact a law licensing chiropractors. The first license under this law was issued two years later. March 21, 1988: CSICOP’s delegation to (to inves- tigate belief in the paranormal in that country) began. April 5, 1923: Lord Carnarvon’s death in a Cairo hotel (a few months after the Tutankhamun excavation) gives rise to a belief in a “mummy’s curse.” April 16, 1843: The hoaxed “Kinderhook plates,” al- leged to be Mormon artifacts, were discovered. They weren’t fully disavowed by the church until 1981. April 21, 1988: Samples were taken of the Shroud of Turin for carbon dating. The resulting paper concluded it dates from the medieval era. Tim Farley is a research fellow with the James Randi Educational Foundation and created the website whatstheharm.net.

66 Volume 37 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer March April 13 *_SI new design masters 1/31/13 9:54 AM Page 67

Scientific and Technical Consultants CENTERS FOR INQUIRY Gary Bauslaugh, John F. Fischer, Richard H. Lange, Daisie Radner, www.centerforinquiry.net/about/branches writer and editor, forensic analyst, Orlando, FL MD, Mohawk Valley Physician prof. of philosophy, SUNY Buffalo TRANSNATIONAL Victoria, B.C., Canada Eileen Gambrill, Health Plan, Schenectady, NY Robert H. Romer, Richard E. Berendzen, prof. of social welfare, Gerald A. Larue, prof. of physics, Amherst College 3965 Rensch Road, Amherst, NY 14228 Tel.: (716) 636-4869 astronomer, Washington, DC Univ. of California at Berkeley prof. of biblical history and Karl Sabbagh, archaeology, Univ. of So. California AUSTIN Martin Bridgstock, Luis Alfonso Gámez, journalist, Richmond, Surrey, England PO Box 202164, Austin, TX 78720-2164 senior lecturer, School of Science, science journalist, Bilbao, Spain William M. London, Robert J. 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C Y E The organizations listed above have aims similar to those of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry but are independent and autonomous. N I R T U E Q Representatives of these organizations cannot speak on behalf of CSI. Please send updates to Barry Karr, P.O. Box 703, Amherst NY 14226-0703. R F O R I N International affiliated organizations listed at www.csicop.org.

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