A Skeptical Look at Overnight

SI May June 2011_SI JF 10 V1 3/25/11 11:53 AM Page 1

Miracle Oil | UFO Abductology Implodes | Water Memory | Book Review: Emperor of All Maladies

Vol. 35 No. 3 | May/June 2011 THE MAGAZINE FOR SCIENCE & REASON

A Skeptical Look At Overnight

Power Lines and Cancer, Distant Healing and Health Care

The Numerology of 23

Slaying the Vampire: Solving the Chupacabra Mystery

Gho$tly Book Endeavors

Published by The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry SI May June 11 CUT_SI new design masters 3/25/11 10:01 AM Page 2

AT THE CEN TERFOR IN QUIRY /TRANSNATIONAL

www.csicop.org Paul Kurtz, Founder Joe Nickell, Senior Research Fellow Richard Schroeder, Chairman Massimo Polidoro, Research Fellow Ronald A. Lindsay, President and CEO Benjamin Radford, Research Fellow Bar ry Karr, Ex ec u tive Di rect or Richard Wiseman, Research Fellow

James E. Al cock*, psy chol o gist, York Univ., Tor on to Thom as Gi lov ich, psy chol o gist, Cor nell Univ. Lor en Pan kratz, psy chol o gist, Or e gon Health Mar cia An gell, MD, former ed i tor-in-chief, Wendy M. Grossman, writer; founder and first editor, Sci en ces Univ. New Eng land Jour nal of Med i cine The Skeptic magazine (UK) Robert L. Park,professor of physics, Univ. of Maryland Kimball Atwood IV, MD, physician, author, Sus an Haack, Coop er Sen ior Schol ar in Arts and Jay M. Pasachoff, Field Memorial Professor of Newton, MA Sci en ces, professor of phi los o phy and professor Astronomy and director of the Hopkins Steph en Bar rett, MD, psy chi a trist, au thor, con sum er of Law, Univ. of Mi ami Observatory, Williams College ad vo cate, Al len town, PA Harriet Hall, MD, family physician, investigator, John Pau los, math e ma ti cian, Tem ple Univ. Willem Betz,MD, professor of medicine, Univ. of Brussels Puyallup, WA Massimo Pigliucci, professor of philosophy, Ir ving Bie der man, psychol o gist, Univ. of C.E.M. Han sel, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Wales City Univ. of New York–Lehman College South ern CA David J. Helfand, professor of astronomy, Stev en Pink er, cog nitive sci en tist, Harvard Univ. Sandra Blakeslee, science writer; author; New York Columbia Univ. Philip Plait, astronomer, lecturer, and writer Times science correspondent Doug las R. Hof stad ter, pro fes sor of hu man Mas si mo Pol id oro, sci ence writer, au thor, ex ec u tive Sus an Black more, vis it ing lec tur er, Univ. of the West un der stand ing and cog ni tive sci ence, In di ana Univ. di rect or of CI CAP, It a ly of Eng land, Bris tol Ger ald Hol ton, Mal linc krodt Pro fes sor of Phys ics and Anthony R. Pratkanis, professor of psychology, Univ. of Mark Boslough, physicist, Sandia National Laborato- pro fes sor of his to ry of sci ence, Har vard Univ. California, Santa Cruz ries, Albuquerque, New Mexico Ray Hy man*, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Or e gon Benjamin Radford, investigator; research fellow, Hen ri Broch, phys i cist, Univ. of Nice, France Le on Jar off, sci en ces ed i tor emer i tus, Time Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Jan Har old Brun vand, folk lor ist, pro fes sor emer i tus Stuart D. Jordan, NASA astrophysicist emeritus, James “The Amazing” Randi, magician, CSICOP of Eng lish, Univ. of Utah science advisor to Center for Inquiry Office of founding member; founder, James Randi Mar io Bunge, phi los o pher, McGill Univ., Montreal Public Policy, Washington, D.C. Educational Foundation Robert T. Carroll, emeritus professor of philosophy, Ser gei Ka pit za, former ed i tor, Rus sian edi tion, Mil ton Ro sen berg, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Chic a go Sacramento City College, writer Sci en tif ic Amer i can Wal la ce Sam pson, MD, clin i cal pro fes sor of med i cine, Sean B. Carroll, molecular geneticist, vice president Barry Karr, executive director, Committee for Stan ford Univ.; ed i tor, Sci en tif ic Re view of for science education, Howard Hughes Medical In- Skeptical Inquiry, Amherst, New York Al ter na tive Med i cine stitute, Madison, WI Law rence M. Krauss, foundation professor, School Am ar deo Sar ma*, chairman, GWUP, Ger ma ny John R. Cole, an thro pol o gist, ed i tor, Na tion al of Earth and Space Exploration and Physics Dept.; Richard Saunders, vice president, Australian Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u ca tion director, Origins Initiative, Arizona State Univ. Skeptics; educator; investigator; podcaster; K.C. Cole, science writer, author, professor, Harry Kroto, professor of chemistry and Sydney, Australia Univ. of Southern California’s Annenberg biochemistry, Florida State Univ.; Nobel laureate Eu ge nie C. Scott*, phys i cal an thro pol o gist, ex ec u tive School of Journalism Ed win C. Krupp, as tron o mer, di rect or, di rect or, Na tion al Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u ca tion Fred er ick Crews, lit er ary and cul tur al crit ic, pro fes sor Grif fith Ob ser va to ry, Los Angeles, CA Rob ert Sheaf fer, sci ence writer emer i tus of Eng lish, Univ. of CA, Berke ley Paul Kurtz, professor emeritus of philosophy, El ie A. Shne our, bi o chem ist, au thor, president and Rich ard Dawk ins, zo ol o gist, Ox ford Univ. SUNY at Buffalo research director, Bi os ys tems Re search In sti tute, Geof frey Dean, tech ni cal ed i tor, Perth, Aus tral ia Law rence Kusche, sci ence writer La Jol la, CA Cor nel is de Ja ger, pro fes sor of as tro phys ics, Le on Le der man, emer i tus di rect or, Fer mi lab; Seth Shostak, senior astronomer, SETI Institute, Univ. of Utrecht, the Neth er lands No bel lau re ate in phys ics Mountain View, CA Dan i el C. Den nett, Univ. pro fes sor and Aus tin B. Scott O. Lil i en feld*, psy chol o gist, Emory Univ., Simon Singh, science writer; broadcaster; UK Fletch er Pro fes sor of Phi los o phy, di rect or of Atlanta, GA Dick Smith,film pro duc er, pub lish er, Ter rey Hills, Cen ter for Cog ni tive Stud ies at Tufts Uni v. Lin Zix in, former ed i tor, Sci ence and N.S.W., Aus tral ia Ann Druyan, writer and producer; CEO, Tech nol o gy Dai ly (Chi na) Keith E. Stanovich, cognitive psychologist; Cosmos Studios, Ithaca, NY Je re Lipps, Mu se um of Pa le on tol o gy, Univ. of CA, professor of human development and applied Sanal Edamaruku, president, Indian Rationalist Berke ley psychology, Uni v. of Toronto Association and Rationalist International Eliz a beth Loft us, pro fes sor of psy chol o gy, Rob ert Stein er, ma gi cian, au thor, El Cer ri to, CA Edzard Ernst, professor, Complementary Medicine, Univ. of CA, Ir vine Vic tor J. Sten ger, emer i tus pro fes sor of phys ics Peninsula Medical School, Universities of Exeter and Da vid Marks, psy chol o gist, City Univ., Lon don and as tron o my, Univ. of Ha waii; ad junct pro fes sor Plymouth, Exeter, UK Mar io Men dez-Acos ta, jour nal ist and sci ence writer, of phi los o phy, Univ. of CO Ken neth Fed er, pro fes sor of an thro pol o gy, Mex i co City Karen Stollznow, linguist; skeptical investigator; Cen tral Con nec ti cut State Univ. Kenneth R. Miller, professor of biology, writer; podcaster Barbara Forrest, professor of philosophy, Brown Univ. Jill Cor nell Tar ter,as tron o mer, SE TI In sti tute, SE Louisiana Univ. Marv in Min sky, pro fes sor of me dia arts and sci en ces, Moun tain View, CA An drew Fra knoi, as tron o mer, Foot hill Col lege, M.I.T. Car ol Tav ris,psy chol o gist and au thor, Los Ange les, CA Los Al tos Hills, CA Da vid Mor ri son, space sci en tist, NA SA Ames Re search Da vid E. Thom as*, phys i cist and math e ma ti cian, Kend rick Fra zier*, sci ence writer, ed i tor, Cen ter Per al ta, NM SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER Rich ard A. Mul ler, pro fes sor of phys ics, Univ. of CA, Neil de Gras se Ty son, as tro phys i cist and di rect or, Christopher C. French, professor, department Berke ley Hay den Plan e tar i um, New York City of psychology, and head of the Anomalistic Joe Nick ell, sen ior re search fel low, CSI Ma ri lyn vos Sa vant, Pa rade mag a zine Psychology Research Unit, Goldsmiths con trib ut ing ed i tor College, Univ. of London Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician, Waalre, Yves Gal i fret, executive secretary, The Netherlands Stev en Wein berg, pro fes sor of phys ics and as tron o my, l’Union Rationaliste Lee Nis bet, phi los o pher, Med aille Col lege Univ. of Tex as at Aus tin; No bel lau re ate Luigi Garlaschelli, chemist, Università di Pavia Steven Novella, MD, assistant professor E.O. Wil son, Univ. pro fes sor emer i tus, organismic and (Italy), research fellow of CICAP, of neurology, Yale Univ. School of Medicine evolutionary biology, Har vard Univ. the Italian skeptics group Bill Nye, sci ence ed u ca tor and tel e vi sion host, Rich ard Wis e man, psy chol o gist, Univ. Maryanne Garry, professor, School of Psychology, Nye Labs of Hert ford shire, England Victoria Univ. of Wellington, New Zealand James E. Oberg, sci ence writer Benjamin Wolozin*, professor, department of Mur ray Gell-Mann, pro fes sor of phys ics, San ta Fe Irm gard Oe pen, pro fes sor of med i cine (re tired), pharmacology, Boston Univ. School of Medicine In sti tute; No bel lau re ate Mar burg, Ger ma ny Marv in Zel en, stat is ti cian, Har vard Univ. * Mem ber, CSI Ex ec u tive Coun cil (Af fil i a tions giv en for iden ti fi ca tion only.) SI May June 11 CUT_SI new design masters 3/25/11 11:54 AM Page 3

Skep ti cal In quir er May/June 2011 | Vol. 35, No. 3

FEATURES COLUMNS FROM THE EDITOR 35 Pop Culture and A Skeptical Look at a Questionable Cases...... 4 Remarkable Case Report NEWS AND COMMENT of ‘Overnight’ Amnesia When Entertainment Meets Science: Extraordinary Symptoms, Weak Summit Boosts Innovative Education / Evidence, and a Breakdown Loftus Wins AAAS Scientific Freedom of Peer Review and Responsibility Award /Skeptically Speaking Podcast Celebrates Second HARALD MERCKELBACH, THOMAS Anniversary/Evolution May Win in Court MERTEN, AND SCOTT O. LILIENFELD But Not in the Classroom/Statement from CSI and CFI on Walmart’s Market- ing of a Homeopathic Flu Remedy / 40 Physicist Disputes ‘Quantum Mind’ in Power Lines and Cancer, Debate Hosted by Deepak Chopra/The Distant Healing and Health Care Wizards of TAMOz/Skeptical App Magnetism Misrepresented Launched on iTunes/A Third of Russians and Misunderstood Say Sun Revolves around Earth ...... 5 EUGENIE V. MIELCZAREK and DEREK C. ARAUJO IN VES TI GA TIVE FILES The Case of the Miracle Oil 45 JOE NICK ELL...... 17 Slaying the Vampire NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD Solving the Chupacabra Mystery I Was a Teenage Psychic MAS SI MO POLIDORO ...... 20 BENJAMIN RADFORD THINKING ABOUT SCI ENCE 49 The Science of Unique Events The Numerology of 23 MAS SI MO PI GLI UC CI ...... 23 MARK BENECKE PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS Abductology Implodes ROBERT SHEAFFER...... 25 COMMENTARY THE SCIENCE OF MEDICINE The Memory of Water 13 STEVEN NOVELLA ...... 28 We Live in Perilous SCIENCE WATCH Times for Science Denisovans and Human Hybrids ELIZABETH LOFTUS REVIEWS in the Game-Changing Age of Paleogenetics SPECIAL REPORT Two Views of KENNETH W. KRAUSE ...... 30 the War on Cancer SKEPTICAL INQUIREE 14 HARRIET HALL...... 56 Anomaly Hunting GHO$TLY Pink Ribbon Blues: How Breast Cancer BENJAMIN RADFORD...... 33 ENDEAVOR: Ethical Culture Undermines Women’s Health NEW BOOKS...... 57 Issues Haunt by Gayle Sulik Kentucky Press The Emperor of All Maladies: LETTERS TO THE ED I TOR...... 62 JOE NICKELL A Biography of Cancer THE LAST LAUGH...... 66 by Siddhartha Mukherjee FORUM Fresh Voice, The Problem 54 Passionate Polemic with Neurosexism Three Types of RYAN SEALS...... 58 MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI...... 60 Evidence Lacking for Tabloid Medicine: How the Internet Is Delusions of Gender: How Our Minds, Paranormal Claims Being Used to Hijack Medical Science for Society, and Neurosexism Create JONATHAN C. SMITH Fear and Profit by Robert Goldberg Difference by Cordelia Fine SI May June 11 CUT_SI new design masters 3/25/11 10:01 AM Page 4

[ FROM THE EDITOR Skep ti cal In quir er™ THE MAG A ZINE FOR SCI ENCE AND REA SON

ED I TOR Kend rick Fra zi er Pop Culture and Questionable Cases ED I TO RI AL BOARD James E. Al cock, Thom as Cas ten, Ray Hy man, Scott O. Lilienfeld, Joe Nick ell, Am ar deo Sar ma, Eugenie C. Scott, e are immersed in popular culture. The influences of Hollywood en- David E. Thomas, Leonard Tramiel, Benjamin Wolozin tertainment on what we think, say, believe, and do can seep deeply CON SULT ING ED I TORS Sus an J. Black more, Ken neth L. Fed er, Barry Karr, E.C. Krupp, Winto our beings. Sometimes, without our even realizing it, this influ- Da vid F. Marks, Jay M. Pasachoff, Rich ard Wis e man ence can distort our view of the real world. We have two examples in this issue. CON TRIB UT ING ED I TORS Austin Dacey, D.J. Grothe, Harriet Hall, Kenneth W. Krause, Chris Moon ey, Both, curiously, involve memory. James E. Oberg, Rob ert Sheaf fer, Karen Stollznow The first is our cover article, “A Skeptical Look at a Remarkable Case Report DEPUTY ED I TOR Ben ja min Rad ford of ‘Overnight’ Amnesia.” Neuroscientists and psychologists Harald Merckel - MAN A GING ED I TOR Julia Lavarnway bach, Thomas Merten, and our colleague Scott O. Lilienfeld critically examine ART DI RECT OR Chri sto pher Fix a study about a supposed new memory disorder published last year in a journal PRO DUC TION Paul E. Loynes of neuropsychology. After a car accident in 2005, a fifty-one-year-old woman ASSISTANT EDITOR Julia Burke seemingly loses her memories of each day’s events overnight. Every day is new WEB DEVELOPER Jon Childress Bar ry Karr to her; her short-term memory is wiped clean only to be filled up the next day PUB LISH ER’S REP RE SENT A TIVE COR PO RATE COUN SELS Derek C. Araujo, and then be lost again that night. The study has gained attention, but too little Bren ton N. Ver Ploeg has been skeptical. Our authors rectify that situation and find major limitations BUSI NESS MAN A GER Pa tri cia Beau champ to the report about her case: it lacks crucial background information (how does FIS CAL OF FI CER Paul Pau lin VICE PRESIDENT OF PLANNING AND DEVEL OP MENT she carry on her job if she forgets everything from the day before?), fails to ex- Sherry Rook clude feigning or lack of motivation to remember new material, and lacks “con- DATA OF FI CER Jacalyn Mohr nectivity” to the scientific literature (something often under-appreciated)— STAFF Melissa Braun, Cheryl Catania, Roe Giambrone, Leah Gordon, An tho ny San ta Lu cia, how exactly would memory be acquired during the day and then wiped out John Sul li van, Vance Vi grass each night? There is no known mechanism for doing that. COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR Michelle Blackley These deficiencies of the study lead our authors to suspect that the woman IN QUIRY ME DIA PRO DUC TIONS Thom as Flynn has been strongly influenced by a fictional case depicted in a widely seen Hol- DI RECT OR OF LI BRAR IES Tim o thy S. Binga

lywood movie, 50 First Dates, starring Drew Barrymore. The woman saw that The SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER is the of fi cial jour nal of the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry, movie several times after her accident. The authors of the original study noted an in ter na tion al or gan i zation. that possibility but then dismissed it. Our authors do not. Occam’s razor leads The SKEP TI CALIN QUIR ER(ISSN 0194-6730) is pub lished bi month - them to suggest the study doesn’t demonstrate amnesia at all but a kind of ly by the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry, 3965 Rensch Road, simulation of it based on the woman’s (mis)understandings of amnesia after Am herst, NY 14228. Print ed in U.S.A. Pe ri od i cals post age paid at Buf fa lo, NY, and at ad di tion al mail ing of fi ces. Sub scrip tion seeing the movie. Something similar has happened before. After the airing of pri ces: one year (six is sues), $35; two years, $60; three the 1976 television film Sybil, which portrayed a woman with supposedly six- years, $84; sin gle is sue, $4.95. Ca na di an and for eign or ders: Pay ment in U.S. funds drawn on a U.S. bank must ac com pa - teen distinct personalities, the number of such dissociative personality disorder ny or ders; please add US$10 per year for ship ping. Ca na di an cases “skyrocketed into the thousands.” and for eign cus tom ers are en cour aged to use Vi sa or Mas ter - Our authors draw several lessons from this case; one is that widely viewed Card. Canada Publications Mail Agreement No. 41153509. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to: IMEX, P.O. Box television programs and films may influence how patients present or describe 4332, Station Rd., Toronto , ON M5W 3J4. their own symptoms. The case reminds us, say Merckelbach, Merten, and In quir ies from the me dia and the pub lic about the work of the Com mit tee should be made to Barry Karr, Executive Director, Lilienfeld, “that in today’s media-driven world, some disorders may be what CSI, P.O. Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. Tel.: 716-636- we term telegenic in origin: induced at least partly by television, films, and 1425. Fax: 716-636-1733. Man u scripts, let ters, books for re view, and ed i to ri al in quir ies news and entertainment media.” should be sent to Kend rick Fra zi er, Ed i tor, SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER, A second case is reported in this issue by our deputy editor, Ben Radford. 944 Deer Drive NE, Al bu querque, NM 87122. Fax: 505-828- 2080. E-mail: [email protected]. Be fore sub mit - He draws on research for a book he has just published on the supposed blood- ting any man u script, please consult our Guide for Au thors for sucking chupacabra creature, which suddenly appeared on the scene in 1995. styles, ref er en ce requirements, and submittal re quire ments. Radford shows that the first sighting of a chupacabra came shortly after the It is on our website at www.csicop.org/pub lications/guide. Or you may send a re quest to the ed i tor. woman who reported it saw a sci-fi horror movie, Species, featuring a creature Ar ti cles, re ports, re views, and let ters pub lished in the SKEP TI- that bears an uncanny resemblance (twelve morphological similarities, in fact) CALIN QUIR ERrep re sent the views and work of in di vid u al au thors. Their pub li ca tion does not nec es sa ri ly con sti tute an en dorse - to her subsequently reported chupacabra. Radford, who flew to Puerto Rico to ment by CSI or its mem bers un less so stated. interview the woman, is convinced that she sincerely believes what she reported. Cop y right ©2011 by the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry. All rights re served. The SKEP TI CALIN QUIR ERis avail a ble on 16mm mi - But he is equally sure this movie is what started the chupacabra myth. cro film, 35mm mi cro film, and 105mm mi cro fiche from Uni - Our minds are a wonder. They have grand capacities for creativity. Some- ver si ty Mi cro films In ter na tion al and is in dexed in the Read - times, influenced by the pop culture all around us, they create things we then er’s Guide to Pe ri od i cal Lit er a ture. Sub scrip tions and chan ges of ad dress should be ad dressed think are real. It’s a fascinating, and sobering, set of lessons. to: SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER, P.O. Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. Or call toll-free 1-800-634-1610 (out side the U.S. call 716- —KENDRICK FRAZIER 636-1425). Old ad dress as well as new are nec es sa ry for change of sub scrib er’s ad dress, with six weeks ad vance no - tice. SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER sub scrib ers may not speak on be half of Committee for Skeptical Inquiry CSI or the SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER. Post mas ter: Send chan ges of ad dress to SKEP TI CALIN QUIR ER, P.O. “...promotes scientific inquiry, critical investigation, and the use Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. of reason in examining controversial and extraordinary claims.”

SI May June 11 CUT_SI new design masters 3/25/11 10:01 AM Page 5

[ NEWS AND COMMENT When Entertainment Meets Science: Summit Boosts Innovative Education JAMES UNDERDOWN

Can the entertainment media, with their formidable skills, help educate young people about science? That was just one of the hopes as the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) hosted the unusual Summit on Science, En ter - tainment, and Education at the Paley Center for Media in Beverly Hills, Cal- ifornia, on February 4, 2011. The all-day symposium featured a top- shelf lineup of speakers from all over the United States on the status and direction of science education today. Each of its From left: Superstring theorist Brian Greene, writer/director/producer Jerry Zucker, and educator Tyler Johnstone three categories (science, entertainment, discuss ways to attract students to the world of science. and education) was well represented by in- novators in their respective fields with rel- her students to testify how they are drawn tainment who need help with content. evant knowledge and experience. toward science. In this day and age of Thanks to a $225,000 grant from the From the world of science, luminaries myriad distractions, catching the eye of Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, such as Ralph Cicerone, NAS president; students is more of a challenge than ever. the Ex change “is seeking proposals to es- Sean B. Carroll, biologist; and Charles But the program didn’t begin and end tablish collaborative partnerships among Vest, president of the National Academy with a group of experts bemoaning the scientists, entertainment industry profes- of Engineering and president emeritus of failures of the education system and sionals, and educators to develop educa- the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, pointing fingers at Hollywood schlock tional products or services that effectively were present. All of the participants in the merchants. (None of the latter was in at- leverage the resources of the entertain- science section of the symposium, includ- tendance as far as I knew.) Computer- ment community to improve educational ing Neil DeGrasse Tyson and superstring gaming wizard Will Wright talked about outcomes in science classrooms.” theoretical physicist and author Brian how well-designed games can foster great We in the skeptical community should Greene, recognized the need for scientists creativity by encouraging players to invent welcome these efforts. Many a false belief to be able to communicate both ideas and aspects of their virtual worlds. Google’s rests on a poor understanding or a misun- enthusiasm to the general public. chief technology advocate, Michael Jones, derstanding of how the universe works, so The Walt Disney Company’s Liza - discussed how the Google Maps people any improvement in science education beth Fogel and Tony DeRose from Pixar put the “Gee!” in geography in well under will help us demystify a wide range of Animation Studios joined event co-spon- a decade. All the speakers—with some public misconceptions—from the local sor Jerry Zucker to give a much-needed poetry and animation sprinkled in—con- school-board fence-sitters who ask for Hollywood perspective. All were hopeful veyed their great passion for their work equal time for intelligent design to Fox about entertainment’s role in future sci- and hopes for the future. News personality Bill O’Reilly whose ence education while mindful that both In the late afternoon, the audience was YouTube video shows him asking, “How the television and movie industries are broken up into five groups and tasked did the moon get there? Who put it for-profit businesses. It was encouraging with brainstorming new and creative there?” to hear that both Disney and Pixar are ideas for how educators, scientists, and There are many smart kids out there making conscious efforts to educate in entertainers can empower student learn- who can be rescued from Bill O’Reilly’s new and creative ways. ing in the sciences. These organized and level of argumentum ad ignorantiam, some Educators such as award-winning facilitated sessions were summarized and of whom might even become in spired high school science teacher Janet English presented to the entire gathering at the enough by science to make it a lifelong and middle school innovator Tyler John- end of the day. pursuit. Maybe endeavors like this sum- stone also contributed their on-the-job The brainstorming sessions were held mit will help turn some young heads and perspectives to the discussion, while partially at the behest of the Science and make our lives a bit easier. Karen Cator of the U.S. Depart ment of Entertainment Exchange, a program of Education and creativity expert Sir Ken the National Academy of Sciences that Jim Underdownis the executive director of the Cen- Robinson added ideas about how we connects scientists and other experts with ter for Inquiry–Los Angeles and the chair and learn best. English even brought some of those developing science-based enter- founder of the Independent Investigations Group.

Skeptical Inquirer | May / June 2011 5 SI May June 11 CUT_SI new design masters 3/25/11 11:54 AM Page 6

Loftus Wins AAAS Evolution May Win in Court But Not in Scientific Freedom and the Classroom Responsibility Award Kendrick Frazier Creationism may indeed have lost every cent who do not personally ac cept hu - one of its major U.S. federal court cases man evolution in the least conservative over the past forty years, but it may be districts. These antievolution views cou- winning the battles in Amer ica’s class- pled with a reluctance to teach evolution rooms. in conservative school districts help cre- That is the conclusion of a study of ate new generations of adults with sim- the evolution-creationism battle in the ilar views, Berkman and Plutzer warn. nation’s schools by political scientists On the plus side, they estimate from Michael B. Berkman and Eric Plutzer the data that 28 percent of all biology of Pennsylvania State University that teachers consistently implement the was published in the January 28, 2011, major recommendations and conclu- issue of Science. sions of the National Research Council. Berkman and Plutzer used the Na- These guidelines call for in troducing ev- tional Survey of High School Biol ogy idence that evolution has occurred and teachers whose data “reveal a pervasive that it is a unifying theme in biology. reluctance of teachers to forthrightly ex- Noted psychologist and Committee Six in ten teachers—“the cautious 60 for Skeptical Inquiry fellow Elizabeth plain evolutionary biology.” Berkman and Plutzer also say the data reveal “a percent”—just want to avoid contro- Loftus has been presented with the versy. Many have never taken a course in American Association for Advance - cycle of ignorance in which community evolution and feel unconfident in their ment of Science (AAAS) Scientific antievolution attitudes are perpetuated ability to defend it. These teachers fail Free dom and Responsibility Award. by teaching that reinforces local com- to explain the nature of scientific inquiry The award notes her investigations munity sentiment.” and otherwise legitimize creationist ar- into “false memory” and calls her “an In the most socially conservative ideal example of a scientist who is dis- school districts, composing about 15 guments, even if unintentionally, say tinguished for both advancing science percent of the districts surveyed, nearly Berkman and Plutzer. “The cautious 60 and applying it to make critical contri- four in ten teachers personally do not ac- percent may play a far more important butions to society.” cept human evolution and consequently role in hindering scientific literacy in the Specifically, the award honors her devote little time to evolution in their United States than the smaller number for “the profound impact that her pio- classrooms. This contrasts with 11 per- of explicit creationists.” neering research on human memory has had on the administration of jus- Skeptically Speaking Podcast Celebrates tice in the United States and abroad.” Loftus is Distinguished Professor of Second Anniversary social ecology and professor of law and Gurmukh Mongia cognitive science at the University of Weekly Canadian skeptical radio week Schell answers questions from lis- California, Irvine. Her discovery that show and podcast Skeptically Speaking teners who either call into the show or memories can be planted or manipu- celebrated its second anniversary in submit a question live via the Internet. lated led her to identify what has been March. The popular program is hosted Previous guests have included Phil “the called False Memory Syndrome. The by Desiree Schell, a scientifically minded Bad Astronomer” Plait, Adam “Myth- American Psychiatric Association has Edmontonian who describes herself as busters” Savage, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER declared repressed memory research being “constantly fascinated by how the columnist Massimo Pigliucci, and many “dead” because of Loftus’s research, the world works.” Each week Schell guides others. AAAS said. Loftus is a member of the Schell will also be a guest at the up- National Academy of Sciences. She is her listeners through an exploration of coming TAM (The Amazing Meeting) also the top-ranked woman on the Re- scientific and skeptical issues through view of General Psychology’s list of "100 interviews with researchers, authors, and 9 in Las Vegas, Nevada. More informa- Most Eminent Psychologists of the experts. tion about the show and its past 20th Century." Skeptically Speaking appears on episodes can be found at www.skepti- The award was presented Febru ary twenty-six radio stations across North callyspeaking.ca. 19, at the 2011 AAAS annual meeting America, its podcast gets 15,000 down- Gurmukh Mongia operates a blog and podcast in Washin gton, D.C. (See page 13 for loads each week. The show’s motto is related to critical thinking called The Dumbasses Loftus’s acceptance remarks.) “Call in. Question Everything.” Each Guide to Knowledge(www.dumb assguide.info).

6 Volume 35 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer SI May June 11 CUT_SI new design masters 3/25/11 10:02 AM Page 7

[ NEWS AND COMMENT

Statement from CSI and CFI on Walmart’s Marketing of a Homeopathic Flu Remedy

Below are excerpts from a joint statement from the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and the Center for Inquiry on Walmart’s marketing of a homeopathic flu remedy. The full statement and documentation, issued January 25, 2011, are available online at www.csicop.org/specialarticles/show/walmart_homeopathy_statement.

We are deeply concerned about products Walmart offers as flu reme- out publicly against Walmart’s irre- Wal mart’s irresponsible marketing dies are, in fact, effective for prevent- sponsibility. and promotion of Boiron Oscillo - ing and treating the flu. People are We urge Walmart to cease mar- coc cinum, an ineffective homeo- buying Boiron Oscillo coccinum keting this ineffective product im- pathic “flu medicine,” through its based on these assurances. mediately. website, www.walmart.com. Wal - Walmart’s assurances regarding mart’s website states that the prod- Boiron Oscillococcinum, however, are Signatories from the Scientific and uct, manufactured by Boiron, is to be false and irresponsible. Boiron Oscil - Medical Community used “for flu-like symptoms.” lo coccinum is ineffective against the KIMBALL C. ATWOOD IV, MD The website further states that flu and flu symptoms. Homeo pathic Assistant Clinical Professor, Tufts the product’s alleged active ingredi- oscillococcinum solutions were first University School of Medicine ent, Anas Barbariae Hepatis Et produced in the early 20th century on STEPHEN BARRETT, MD Psychiatrist; Author; Consumer Cordis Extractum 200CK Hpus, is the mistaken as sumption that they Advocate used “to Reduce The Duration and contained “oscillococci,” microscopic WILLEM BETZ, MD Severity of Flu Symptoms,” and bacteria that proved to be imaginary. Professor Emeritus of Medicine, features an image of the product’s The al legedly active ingredient of Bo- University of Brussels VUB; package, which indicates that the iron’s Oscillo coccinum consists of Chair, Medicine Branch, European product “Reduces [the] Duration mere liquefied duck liver and duck Council of Skeptical Organisations and Severity of Flu Symptoms,” in- heart, substances that were thought to EDZARD ERNST, MD, PhD, FMed Sci, cluding “Fever, Chills, Body Aches contain the nonexistent bacteria. FSB, FRCP, FRCP (Edin.) and Pains.” More over, manufacturing a “200 CK” Laing Chair in Complementary Walmart’s misleading promotion homeopathic preparation re quires re- Medicine, Peninsula Medical of this “homeopathic medicine” as a peatedly diluting the “active ingredi- School, Universities of Exeter and treatment for flu is not limited to the ent” in water until the odds that the Plymouth webpage on which the product is solution contains even a single mole- DAVID H. GORSKI, MD, PhD, FACS Managing Editor, Science-Based displayed. Consumers will reach this cule of it are effectively zero. Medicine blog; Leader, Breast Can- page only after visiting Wal mart’s There is no credible scientific ev- cer Multi disciplinary Team, Barbara “Medicine Cabinet” page, which as- idence to support the effectiveness of Ann Karmanos Cancer Institute sures customers that the products Boiron Oscillococcinum’s “200CK” HARRIET HALL, MD Walmart carries will “fight colds and homeopathic preparation beyond Physician (ret.); Writer the flu.” From there, website visitors what is expected from the placebo STEVEN NOVELLA, MD will navigate to the “Cough, Colds & effect. Assistant Professor of Neurology, Flu Well ness Shop” page, which The Committee for Skeptical In- Yale University School of Medicine promises to help the customer “stay quiry and the Center for Inquiry VENKI RAMAKRISHNAN, PhD on top of cold and flu season by wrote to Walmart in November Nobel Laureate (Chemistry, 2009); learning about products that can help 2010 regarding its inaccurate and Louis-Jeantet Prize for Medicine you and your family stay well, relieve misleading marketing of Boiron (2007) symptoms and recover fast.” In its Oscillo coccinum. To date Walmart WALLACE SAMPSON, MD “Cough, Cold, and Flu Buying has neither issued a response to nor Clinical Professor, Emeritus of Medicine, Stanford University; Guide,” Wal mart asserts that its ac knowledged receipt of CSI and Former Editor-in-Chief, Scientific products will provide the customer CFI’s letter. Because Walmart has Review of Alternative Medicine “with everything you and your family misled consumers about the prod- SIMON SINGH, PhD, MBE need for battling a cold or the flu.” uct’s effectiveness and ignored pri- Author; Critic; Television Director In short, Walmart’s entire website vate pleadings to correct the situa- and Producer is replete with assurances that the tion, we are compelled to speak

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Physicist Disputes ‘Quantum Mind’ anybody seriously thinks the jug of water on this table is dependent on in Debate Hosted by Deepak Chopra you or dependent on me.” Diana Lutz Chopra: “I think the shape of the jug, the color and texture depends on the nervous system. A different nerv- Physicist Mark Alford spent a January Sciences at Columbia University. ous system would perceive it totally day on Manhattan’s Upper East Side Alford, a theoretical physicist who differently. A honeybee would not discussing the nature of reality at the studies quark matter, was invited because experience [the same] jug. A bat modern equivalent of an Enlighten- he had previously defended a position would experience that as the echo of ment salon. that severely limits the metaphysical im- ultrasound. A chameleon’s eyeballs Alford participated in a roundtable plications of physics. In an article in about the quantum mind: the idea that Foundations of Physics in 2006, he as- swivel on two different axes. I can’t quantum mechanical phenomena, such serted that physics can “only cover lim- even remotely imagine what that as quantum entanglement and super- ited aspects of our experience.” would look like to a chameleon. So position, may form the basis of an ex- Alford questioned the idea of quan- does that jug exist as a jug by itself?” planation of consciousness. Alford is tum mind, explaining that quantum en- Alford: “Yes.” professor of physics at Washington tanglement is “usually very delicate” and Chopra: “Matter is an illusion University in St. Louis. “difficult to arrange.” Physicists struggle and only consciousness is real.” Deepak Chopra, an endocrinologist to entangle even a few particles for any Later in the debate, Alford offered who publishes self-help books on New some common ground: “I’m quite sym- Age spirituality and alternative medi- pathetic to the idea of constructing these cine, moderated. The salon was held at sorts of patterns of ideas that you’re talk- the Philoctetes Center for the Multi - ing about. I just think that you don’t need disciplinary Study of the Imagina tion. to—as I would think of it—con taminate The Philoctetes Center brings together them with stuff from science like quan- scientists, artists, and scholars for tum mechanics,” he said. roundtable discussions in an attempt to Quantum mechanics is early twenty- bridge the separation between the first-century physics, Alford said, and worlds of science and the humanities. may one day be discarded, like the late- Among the discussants was Stuart nineteenth-century notion that light Hameroff, professor of anesthesiology Deepak Chopra Mark Alford travels through a medium called the lu- and psychology and director of the miniferous aether. Center for Consciousness Studies at substantial period of time. It seems im- the University of Arizona. Together probable, he said, that “these very deli- “If you rely too much on the current with British physicist Roger Penrose, cate processes are the crucial feature of scientific paradigm, wait a hundred Hameroff espouses the idea that per- the functioning of the human brain,” years—it’s been replaced,” Alford said. ception and consciousness arise from which is “not a suitable environment” “So I don’t think you want to be using the collapse of the wave function of a for quantum subtlety. [quantum mechanics] as a foundation. Bose-Einstein condensate of quantum- “It’s more likely,” he said, “that con- You can use it as inspiration, you can entangled electrons in the brain. sciousness arises from other, more con- use it in various ways, but I don’t think This happens, Hameroff claims, forty ventional bits of science, and you don’t you want to actually build on it like it’s times per second—or, in the case of Ti- need to reach all the way to this, the a foundation.” betan monks trained in meditation, most exotic, the most delicate, the most Chopra, the mystic, had begun the eighty times per second—so the per- bizarre bit of modern physics. You don’t debate by saying he wanted “to home in ceived world slows down as if perception need to reach all that way.” on the limitations of science.” In the were a movie filmed at a higher-than- As the discussion got underway, it end it was Alford, the scientist, who normal frame rate. became evident that Chopra was inter- emphasized those limitations, asking The guests at the roundtable also in- ested in pushing the boundaries of Al- that science be understood in a humble cluded Menas Kafatos, professor of ford’s pragmatism. way and not as the key that unlocks the computational physics at Chapman Chopra to Alford: “Is there an door to the “ultimate” reality. University in California, and Stuart observer-independent reality, in your Fire stein, professor of neurobiology and opinion?” Diana Lutz is senior science editor at Wash - chair of the Department of Bio logical Alford: “Yes, I don’t think that ington University in St. Louis.

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[ NEWS AND COMMENT

The Wizards of TAMOz Kylie Sturgess

One thing that will definitely go down up in the dozens to attend dinners in history about The Amazing Meet ing hosted by their podcast heroes and Australia (TAMOz), held in Sydney, groupie-gazing during the impromptu New South Wales, November 26–28, karaoke sessions at the nearby Mal- 2010, is the most unusual choice of oney’s Hotel. This was certainly not the venue. Infamous Australian radio deejay same milieu of previous conventions in Maynard Crabbes and I puzzled over the other cities, and it seemed as if the rep- strange items that dotted the gold-and- utation and fun atmosphere of the Las cream Sydney Masonic Center’s Grand Vegas Amazing Meet ing (SI, Novem- Lodge conference room.Were the pair of ber/December 2010) transplanted giant chairs really part of some elaborate nicely into a Sydney setting. ritual designed to worship the gods of But it was the sessions that captured geometry? And if so, should we rework the imaginations, minds, and hearts of Maynard’s tinfoil hat into a more suitably even the most curmudgeonly skeptics equilateral shape before his guest appear- among us. Paleontologist Paul Willis, a ance on the main stage? reporter on Australian ABC television’s A sense of humor was mandatory for Catalyst and the inspired choice for James “The Amazing” Randi this event, considering the lively atmos- master of ceremonies, roused the crowd phere and traditional Australian conge- with his cheerful and cheeky introduc- niality. With an expected attendance of tions and announcements; podcaster 600 people and a generously mixed Brian Dunning reveled in the fact that Members of the lineup of local and international skeptics, Masonic emblems were visible while he generation of journalists, entertainers, and scientists was photographed during his discus- (including self-described “sleek geek” sion on mysterious sounds. The Skeptics’ skeptics more apt to Karl Kruszelnicki, philanthropist Dick Guide to the Universe podcasters and create blog posts than Smith, physical anthropologist Eugenie George Hrab joined forces to create an C. Scott, and U.K. author Simon Singh), im promptu quiz after some presenta- reminisce about Don tickets were sold out online within days tion no-shows, and Pamela Gay and Lane’s attack on James of becoming available. Coinciding with Fred Watson each presented inspira- Randi in the 1980s were the event were a number of “fringe” tional lectures on astronomy, particu- events, including the Bloggers Breakfast, larly emphasizing a humility and won- signing up in the dozens the Skepticator Open-Mic night, and a der that we can all share. to attend dinners hosted number of pub gatherings and meet-ups. Dick Smith and James Randi dis- This was the first year that an cussed the ever-popular Carlos hoax by their podcast heroes Amazing Meeting was held in Aus- and their collective effort to discourage and groupie-gazing tralia; usually the Australian Skep tics’ water-divining in the media. Award- during the impromptu annual gathering is the Australian winner Loretta Marron of the web site Skeptics Convention, which rotates be- www.healthinformation.com.au dis- karaoke sessions at the tween major Austral ian cities, mostly cussed her never-ending fight against nearby Maloney’s Hotel. on the East coast. This year the variety pseudoscience and health fraud in Aus- of presentations was significantly ex- tralia. Krissy Wilson repeated her en- panded due to the inclusion of interna- gaging lecture from the Australian tional guests and a distinctly younger Skeptics convention in Brisbane last demographic in both presenters and at- year, in cluding a summary on popular which was equal to any Jerry Andrus or tendees—which was very much re- beliefs and odd practices. Michael Shermer show. flected in the social and online activity Science communicator Karl Krus zel - Bestsellers at the Embiggen book- during the weekend. nicki’s scattershot approach to science store stand included Carl Sagan’s The Members of the generation of skep- facts and fictions and Rob Mor rison’s Demon-Haunted World; The Australian tics more apt to create blog posts than dazzling visual illusions made for a Book of Atheism, edited by Warren reminisce about Don Lane’s attack on breathtaking ride from start to finish on Bonett; the ever-popular Flim-Flam by James Randi in the 1980s were signing the topic of deceptions and perceptions, James Randi (who was mobbed for sig-

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“It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry.” – Thomas Paine You are invited to join the Center for Inquiry to Act, Combat, and Promote…

Since 1976, three remarkable organizations have been in the forefront of efforts to promote and defend critical thinking and freedom of inquiry. The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry (founded in 1976), the Council for Secular Humanism (1980), CSI Fellow and SkEPTICAl INquIrEr Editorial Board Member and the Center for Inquiry James Alcock leads a class at a Skeptics’ Toolbox event. The Toolbox (1991) have advocated, has been held every year, except once, since1992. championed, and, when necessary, defended the freedom to inquire … while Your Help Is a Necessity! ACT, COMBAT, and PROMOTE demonstrating how the fruits Each year, magazine of objective inquiry can be We are currently focused on three subscriptions fund a smaller used to understand reality, goals central to our core objectives: percentage of this work, even refute false beliefs, and achieve as the need for activism in- Act to end the stigma results that benefit humanity. attached to being creases and the population nonreligious. we serve grows. In many ways, our organizations have been ahead of their Combat religion’s More than ever, CFI and its time. Now, they are privileges and its influence affiliates depend on the on public policy. truly 3 For Tomorrow. generosity of our supporters Through education, advocacy, both to fund daily operations Promote science-based publishing, legal activism, skepticism and critical thinking. and to build capital and its network of regional for the future. branches, CFI and its affiliate Make your most generous gift

organizations continue to today . . . or request information Your support today can provide support for everyone on planned giving or a bequest. who seeks a better life—in protect tomorrow for us all. For more information, return the this life—for all. Your generous gift can perpetuate our work toward attached card or contact us at: Center for Inquiry the kind of world you—and Development Office your grandchildren—can feel P.O. Box 741 Amherst, NY 14226 proud to live in. 1-800-818-7071 [email protected] website: www.centerforinquiry.net SI May June 11 CUT_SI new design masters 3/25/11 10:02 AM Page 11

[ NEWS AND COMMENT

natures at regular intervals); and Simon Singh’s Trick Or Treatment?—a book that he admitted wasn’t a bestseller in comparison to some of his other books, but it was certainly snapped up by attendees after his gripping presentation on the British Chiropractic Asso cia tion case from 2008. A pertinent panel, “Entertain ment and Skepticism,” featured James Randi expounding on the power of connecting with an audience and an impassioned and memorable walk-out by mentalist and magician Simon Taylor, who urged us not to look down at others based on their approach to thinking and to factor in emotion and empathy when we communicate. Evidence-based medicine workshops; education, activism, and Members of Stop the Australian Vaccination Network show off their 2010 Skeptic of the Year Award certificates. skepticism panels; and discussions about skepticism and the law were all very well attended—some even attracting standing-room-only crowds. There was a rousing Twitter-broadcast quiz that pitted the audience against a panel of overseas podcasters, eliciting some hilarious (and unprint- able) results. Paul Willis shredded a duck in the name of science to demonstrate the evolutionary traits, including the unique fourth trochanter, found in both birds and dinosaurs. A lengthy “Psychic Predictions of 2010” session led us through a number of events that never seemed to appear in any psychics’ publications. Some of the more memorable dis- Pamela Gay gives an inspirational lecture on astronomy. cussions I had were with the energetic people from the Young Australian Skep- tics podcast, who worked hard to promote not only their show but the activities of Freethought University Alliance groups across the country. With their keen questioning of current leaders in skepticism such as Eugenie C. Scott and Simon Singh, they very much represented the spirit of the new and up- coming skeptical figures. Interest in outreach, activism, and ongoing education is familiar for those who attend skeptical conferences, but the emphasis on local activism at TAMOz was particularly pertinent to the mostly Australian attendees. The 2010 Skeptic Conference participants include (from left to right) Bob Novella, Jay Novella, Steven Novella, Evan Bernstein, of the Year Award was unanimously and George Hrab.

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approved when it was presented to mem- up by the chair-entity of the New conclusion on their own. bers of Stop the Austral ian Vaccination Zealand Skeptics, Gold (he doesn’t have I for one sincerely hope that this Network (SAVN). Ken McLeod, Wendy a first name): kind of questioning, concerned feed- Wil kin son, and Daniel Raffaele accepted The entire event was a fantastic ex- back, and positive thinking—and the the certificates on behalf of about 2,000 perience. If I had to pick one event it inspirations gained from it—will con- activists who continually watchdog the would have been when I realized I tinue on into forthcoming Australian activities of one of the major anti-vacci- was having lunch with Dr. Pamela Gay. Her talk was also the one that I Skeptics Conven tions, whether or not nation groups in Australia . Let’s hope got the best message from: the idea they are also “Amazing.” this dedication will encourage other that we, as skeptics, have a habit of skeptics to tackle similar anti-science or- taking things away from the true be- Kylie Sturgess is an Australian educator and lievers when we point out facts and ganizations nationwide in their various podcaster on the Token Skeptic. Her interview that it would be more constructive to guises and permutations. make them question their own posi- with Stephen Fry appeared in the January/ Winding up the weekend, I would tion instead. Plant that seed to get Febru ary 2010 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. E-mail: pod say that the experience was best summed them thinking and come to a rational [email protected].

Skeptical App A Third of Russians Launched on iTunes Say Sun Revolves around Earth Let’s say you’re in the middle of a skeptical debate Does the sun revolve around the earth? or discussion and you need well-researched skep- About one-third of Russians appear to be- tical information right away. Maybe you can’t relieve so, according to a new survey con- member who dreamed up homeopathy or what ducted by the Russian Center of Public year Kenneth Arnold saw his famous “flying Opinion Research and reported by Agence saucer.” There’s a new way for skeptics to get their France-Press. quick skeptfix: The Skeptic’s Dictionary app is now available from iTunes. The Thirty-two percent of Russians reject a app, developed by David Knobel, easily allows access to the core terms listed sun-centered solar system, four percentage on the contents page of The Skeptic’s Dictionary website. You can scroll the points more than in 2007 when a similar contents list from A to Z or search directly for a name or term from among survey was conducted by the same center. more than 700 items. Internet access on your mobile device is required to The new survey also found 55 percent of view the articles. Russians believe that radioactivity is a Robert Carroll, author of The Skeptic’s Dictionary book and website, human invention. Twenty-nine percent be- touts the app as “your one-stop source for information on weird beliefs lieve humans lived in the era of dinosaurs. It and the critical thinking skills needed to understand and combat them. It also found that women are more likely than is also chock-full of references should you wish to do more research on a men to believe scientific superstitions. topic. The content covers alternative medicine, cryptozoology, extraterres- The survey, which highlighted scientific trials and UFOs, frauds and hoaxes, junk science, logic and perception, superstitions among Russians, was con- New Age energy, and all things psychic and paranormal.” The app, which ducted in January 2011 among 1,600 people is compatible with iPhone, iPod touch, and iPad, requires iOS 3.2 or later. in different regions, with a 3.4 percent margin of error. Americans should hardly be smug. The 2010 Science and Engineering Indicators study (National Science Board) reports that in 2008 only 58 percent of males and 44 percent of females correctly answered the Earth-around-Sun question. (Those numbers were six and two percentage points worse, respectively, than in a similar survey in 2006). On the radioactivity question, Amer - icans did better than the Rus sians. In 2008 74 percent of American men and 67 percent of American women correctly answered “false” to the statement “All radioactivity is man-made.” n

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COMMENTARY]

We Live in Perilous Times for Science

Acceptance speech for the American Association for the Advancement of Science Award for Scientific Freedom and Responsibility given to Elizabeth Loftus on February 19, 2011.

ELIZABETH LOFTUS

feel grateful and privileged that the research I have done falsely accused, to write endless articles in rejoinder to dubious but persistent on memory in the past three decades has been honored clinical ideas? Ifor its contributions to science and human welfare. But I do know that once faced with the of all of these awards, this one, in honor of scientific free- choice between yielding to the wave of dom and responsibility, has a special poignancy for me. I hostility and criticism that my research provoked or standing as strong as I never set out to carry the banner for those glorious words could for science and justice, it was a freedom and responsibility; I was merely a scientist interested no-brainer for me. But it was a decision in the fallibility and malleability of memory—a subject that that took an enormous personal toll, which is why this award is so meaning- turned out to be central to the “repressed memory” moral ful and gratifying to me. panic that swept this nation in the We live today in perilous times for 1980s and 1990s. If anyone had told me science: conflicts of interest that taint in advance that my scientific commit- research; pressures on scientists to cut ment to knowledge would make me the corners to get fast results; a public cul- target of organized, relentless vitriol and ture that alternates between hostility to harassment (not to mention expensive science and irrational expectations of Elizabeth Loftus is Dis- litigation), I might have laughed at what science can provide. If we as sci- tinguished Professor of them—“Memory? Who gets angry over entists want to preserve our freedom social ecology and pro- different memories?” (and the welfare of others), now more fessor of law and cogni- than ever we have a responsibility. tive science at the Uni- Every now and then I’d find myself versity of California, wondering: If I’d known this in advance, And that responsibility is to bring Irvine. She is a fellow of would I have made the same decisions? our science to the public arena and to the Committee for Skep- Would I have decided to do the same speak out as forcefully as we can against tical Inquiry. A news and comment piece kind of research, to spend countless even the most cherished beliefs that re- about her award appears on page 6. hours in courtrooms testifying for the flect unsubstantiated myths. n

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[SPECIAL REPORT GHO$TLY ENDEAVOR: Ethical Issues Haunt Kentucky Press

Posing as respectable folklore, Spookiest Stories Ever is actually a sustained promotion of ignorance, superstition, and pseudoscience. That it was published by a university press is especially troubling.

JOE NICKELL

his is the story of how a respectable university press— ier. Besides, Musick’s book offers a bibli- the University Press of Kentucky (UPKY), “scholarly ography and source notes, whereas Roberta Simpson Brown and Lonnie E. Tpublisher for the Commonwealth”—came to sell out Brown—the authors of Spookiest Stories its legacy of science and scholarship. It is also the story of Ever—rather embarrassingly confess, how I, one of its most-published authors—attempting to “We were not collectors when we heard many of these stories, so we did not raise a question of ethics in the interest of the press, the record the storyteller’s name or the time state’s universities, science, and the public—was treated in and place of the stories” (Brown and the process. Brown 2010, xvi). They add, “Some of these stories are “Folk”-lure based on our own experiences….” This is interesting, because the book’s jacket At issue is a ridiculous book on copy suggests a work of traditional folk- ghosts—another mystery-mongering, lore, stating that Spookiest Stories Ever pro-paranormal collection that is based “transports readers into the past with on a logical fallacy known as argumen- chilling tales that have been passed tum ad ignorantiam (“argument from ig- down from generation to generation.” norance,” i.e., a lack of knowledge). The So not only do the authors not know notion is that if you “can’t explain” some- many of their stories’ ante cedents, but thing (say a noise in an old house), it must by relating their “own experiences”— therefore be paranormal (surely a ghost). and those of family, friends, and ac- Although that illogic permeates Spookiest quaintances, which actually make up Stories Ever: Four Seasons of Kentucky over half of the book—they reveal that Ghosts, beginning with the very first sen- theirs is not, substantially, a work of Joe Nickell is CSI’s senior tence of the very first story, there are other classic folklore. (In contrast, Musick’s research fellow and SI’s “In- problems with the book. book is a collection of folktales with vestigative Files” columnist. Take the title: Please! I’ve read spooky folk motifs, keyed to standard motif-in- He is author of several stories, and these don’t compare. For my dexes of folklore, that are helpfully dozen books critically examining paranormal claims, money, Ruth Ann Musick’s Coffin Hol- identified.) including ghosts and ghost- low and Other Ghost Tales (1977), pub- In fact, as a press release for the book like entities. lished by the same press, is much spook- observes, “The authors explore paranor-

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mal phenomena and investigate some face between being fully asleep and such an attempt, a litany of alleged first- of the most haunted places in the awake (Nickell 2004, 228–40). If she is hand testimonials that invite the very world ...” (“Ghosts” 2010). So this is aware of this phenomenon, she never kind of reaction that one credulous basically a ghost-hunter’s book—one says so. reader had: noting that the book’s nar- promoting belief in spirits of the dead When I first heard about the Browns’ ratives “are offered as ‘true stories,’” he through allegedly empirical means: per- proposed book and raised the alarm, I added, “While it’s easy to raise a jaun- sonal experiences, presumably by psy- was assured by a University Press of diced eyebrow at this notion, the cumu- chically sensitive persons and/or the use Kentucky editor that the collection was lative effect of these plain-spoken tales of cameras and other equipment that just “ghost stories” such as would be told inspires belief rather than skepticism” supposedly record spirit “energy.” around a campfire and that the press was (Patterson 2010). not presenting them “as true”—certainly So the disingenuity in the book— Ghost Hunting not as actual evidence for the supernat- and in its publishing campaign—is im- The authors of Spookiest Stories Ever are ural. But they ended up doing just that. mense, with “true” being treated the way in fact self-styled conductors of “para- The book-jacket copy promises “a “real” is used on a carnival side show normal investigations with the Louis- wealth of real-life experiences with the banner (meaning a real fake, as opposed ville Ghost Hunters and the American supernatural.” The foreword refers to to an imaginary one). Yes, the stories in Ghost Society” (“Roberta” 2009)— “moments when extraordinary events Spookiest Stories Ever are “true”—in that groups whose approach is fundamen- have suggested the presence of the su- they are not presented as fiction. tally pseudoscientific. Here and there throughout the book, ghost hunters make forays into “haunted” places where alleged spirit pictures (Brown If it takes a book cynically and Brown 2010, 146), camera mal- functions (133), and the like are re- promoting ignorance and superstition ported, along with various alleged psy- chical encounters (e.g., 146, 149, 153, to support one advocating science 156). (For a discussion of ghost hunters, see Nickell 2006.) and reason, I will take a pass. Co-author Roberta Simpson Brown repeatedly reports her own psychic ex- My integrity is not for sale. periences. Since the age of seven (Brown and Brown 2010, 5), she has witnessed —Joe Nickell apparitions (150, 157–58, 215–16), had prophetic dreams (127), experienced “visitations” (32, 33), communicated with spirits (32, 33, 60, 244), encoun- pernatural,” and it also touts a book by The real truth is that the stories are tered “signs” (239–45), sensed a presence another press that “introduces the reader convincing only to those who are un- (38, 61, 75, 143), felt paranormal cold to forty-four ghost-hunting groups that aware of just how little validity such an- spots (62, 147), and so on. Some of have generated interesting stories” ecdotal accounts have and of the fallacy these paranormal experiences have (Tucker 2010, xi). of arguing from ignorance. Actually, come from her “ghost-hunting activi- many of the book’s reported incidents ties” (149). In fact, Simp son Brown— “True” Versus the Truth are unexplained merely because the ev- who has an “interest in the supernatural” When Brown and Brown (2010) gush idence they offer is somewhere between (29)—exhibits several traits associated that a story “is incredible, but true” (28), nonexistent and doubtful. They are not with a fantasy-prone personality (see we are apparently supposed to under- at all unexplainable. Such phenomena Wilson and Barber 1983): she is highly stand this statement as, “Well, not true are quite easily explained as waking imaginative, has vivid dreams, receives true.” The authors disclaim: “If you are dreams, misperceptions, alternative nat- messages from otherworldly entities, looking for scientific proof that ghosts ural phenomena, electronic glitches, and has “psychic” experiences, among exist, or even an exact definition of what pranks by others, and so on (Nickell other traits. (Her late sister Fatima also they are, you will not find the answers 2001; 2004; 2006; 2007). One suspects appears to have been a fantasizer, but in this book. This is a collection of true many of the Browns’ reports are con- Brown’s co-author husband is less so.) personal experiences and stories we fabulated at best and partially or com- Some of Roberta Simpson Brown’s ex- heard as true. We will not attempt to pletely fictionalized at worst. Not a sin- periences seem consistent with common convert you to our way of thinking” (4– gle ghost has ever been validated by “waking dreams” that occur in the inter- 5). Oh, really? Much of the book is just mainstream science, and pseudoscien-

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[SPECIAL REPORT

tific ghost hunters are on a fool’s errand, all, and I agreed to take a look. Fair. I have no reason to believe that my unaware that when the brain is dead, I subsequently received from an edi- report was ever shown to the UPKY brain function ceases—and with it, tor a copy of the manuscript (although board, which must approve all books thought, speech, and motor function. it was missing several pages). After based on readers’ reports and the advice Realizing they have no “scientific reading it and seeing that it was as bad of staff. Did the board have access to all proof that ghosts exist,” the authors still as I had feared, I wrote a seven-page cri- available and relevant information? try to have it both ways, insisting, “You tique, concluding, “Surely the Press can No doubt Spookiest Stories Ever will sell more than most of my books. Wrinn is correct in noting that popular books often make possible the publishing of Pseudoscientific ghost hunters scholarly ones (Nardini 2004), although when both are at their best (thorough, are on a fool’s errand, unaware that honest, and well documented on the one when the brain is dead, brain function hand and interesting and readable on the other), there may not be so much differ- ceases—and with it, thought, ence after all. But if it takes a book cynically promoting ignorance and supersti- speech, and motor function. tion to support one advocating science and reason, I will take a pass. My integrity is not for sale. n

must decide for yourself what you be- find a more suitable collection of ghost References lieve about ghosts” (4–5). But how can tales to publish—perhaps a statewide Musick, Ruth Ann. 1977. Coffin Hollow and Other Ghost Tales. Lexington: University Press someone possibly decide when given anthology of folktales, ballads, etc.— of Kentucky. only a phony choice? For one, we are rather than try to patch and prop up Nardini, Bob. 2004. Two days in Knoxville in the presented “true” experiences of the su- the Browns’ unacceptable manuscript” year of the University Press. Available online at www.ybp.com/acad/features/1204_up.htm pernatural, and for the other, the au- (Nickell 2009). l; accessed December 17, 2010. thors’ assurance that there is no other But patch and prop they did—delet- Nickell, Joe. 2001. Real-Life X-Files: Investi gating tenable position because the ex - ing a ghost hunter’s term (“orbs”), for ex- the Paranormal. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky. periences simply “can’t be explained.” ample, and making other cosmetic ———. 2004. The Mystery Chronicles: More Real- This takes disingenuity to a new level. changes, as well as adding a foreword by Life X-Files. Lexington: University Press of That it would bear the imprimatur of a folklorist. (She mentions other collec- Kentucky. ———. 2006. Ghost hunters. SKEPTICAL IN- the University Press of Kentucky, which tions of ghost tales, some published by QUIRER 30(5) (September/October), 23–26. represents the state’s scholarly institu- UPKY, but acknowledges that “an im- ———. 2007. Adventures in Paranormal Investi - tions, is appalling. Will there be further portant difference between the present gation. Lexington: University Press of Ken - tucky. such books, perhaps “true” ex periences volume and the books just mentioned is ———. 2009. Response to Kentucky Ghosts for All with angels or encounters with extra- that the Browns tell stories from their Seasons [original title of Brown and Brown terrestrials? own family and friends.”) 2010]. Report to UPKY, June 24. Patterson, D.H. 2010. Review online at www. Meanwhile, I waited for the pub- amazon.com/Spookiest_Stories_Ever_ Messenger Shot lisher to reply to my report. An editor Seasons_Kentucky/dp/0813125952; ac cessed Because of my concerns, I talked by said Wrinn was “very interested in December 20, 2010. Simpson Brown, Roberta. 2009. Roberta’s bio. phone with the head of the press, reading it, but he’s on vacation until Available online at www.robertasimpson- Stephen Wrinn, who was defensive (to after the fourth” (of July 2009). That is brown.com/node/10; accessed June 15, 2009. say the least) and decried what he sug- the last I heard (a long vacation in- Simpson Brown, Roberta, and Lonnie E. Brown. 2010. Spookiest Stories Ever: Four Seasons of gested was my attempt at censorship. deed!). I’ve heard nothing about the Kentucky Ghosts. Lexington: University Press Of course it is not censorship to hold book, nothing about one of mine I was of Kentucky. works to standards of science and discussing with the press at the time (it Tucker, Elizabeth. 2010. Foreword to Brown and Brown 2010, ix–xiii. scholarship as befits a university press. would have been my thirteenth with University Press of Kentucky. 2010. Ghosts aren’t He did not like my use of the word them, but it is now published by just for Halloween (press release) (August ethics, and he stated that he did not in- Prometheus Books). And, although 20). Wilson, Sheryl C., and Theodore X. Barber. 1983. tend to have, financially, another year UPKY had just published my Real or The fantasy prone personality: Implications like the previous one. He insisted I look Fake: Studies in Authentication, for the for understanding imagery, hypnosis, and at the book’s manuscript, which he first such time they did not ask me to parapsychological phenomena. In Imagery, Current Theory, Research and Application. Ed. thought I would find acceptable after appear at the annual Kentucky Book Anees A. Sheikh. New York: Wiley. 340–90.

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[ INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL Joe Nickell, PhD, is CSI’s senior research fellow and author of numerous books, including Looking for a Miracle. His website is at www.joenickell.com.

The Case of the Miracle Oil

or a new television series on the they had placed it there. Oprah Winfrey Network (OWN) Soon, word of the “miracle” spread, Fcalled Miracle Detectives, I was in- and visitors—mostly the Catholic faith- vited to a home in Northern Cali fornia ful—began to come in swarms. Some left where myriad icons, statues, and other their own icons and holy figurines religious effigies were “miraculously overnight, only to retrieve them the next streaming oil”—“healing” oil, some day drizzled with oil. Claims of heal- claim. There I joined cohosts Randall ings—from headaches to rashes to Sullivan (whose book The Miracle De- arthritis—began to be reported. More tective [2004] prompted the series) and visitors came from as far away as Indone- Indre Vískontas (a neuroscientist and sia, Australia, Holland, and Nigeria. skeptic) (figure 1). Indre introduced me In 2001, the San Jose Mercury News on the show by announcing: “Joe Nickell featured the oil story but included more is one of the most prominent debunkers than a trickle of skepticism. A spokes - of purported miraculous or supernatural person for the Diocese of San Jose events in the country—maybe even the urged such claims be given “great cau- world.” As it happened, I had long ago tion.” Described as “a professional de- suggested the case was one of pious fraud bunker,” I was quoted in observing that (Fernandez 2001). What would an on- nondrying oils like olive oil could re- site investigation reveal? main fresh-looking for long periods of time. (Since they do not evaporate like Background water, such oils have become favored for The home I visited in Union City, Cali- weeping-icon trickery.) I mentioned fornia, belonged to a diminutive Philip- other cases of “miraculous” oily or

pine-American woman named Cora bloody effigies that ranged from those Figure 1. The cohost of Miracle Detectives examine effigies Lorenzo. There, in 1991, she hung by the that remain unproven and those that with trickles of “miraculously” appearing oil at a home in front door in her living room a holy- have been determined to be fraudulent. Northern California. water font she had bought on a trip to Moreover, although there were unveri- Investigating on Site Lourdes, the French healing shrine. One fied claims of the oil samples miracu- When I met Lorenzo at her home on November evening in 1995, Lorenzo no- lously increasing in quantity (rather like May 24, 2010, she hugged me and said ticed that the water had dried up. The the self-replenishing jar of oil in the she had wanted to meet me ever since I next morning, however, which happened Old Testament [2 Kings 4: 1–7]), the appeared on a Discovery Channel spe- to be the Catholic feast of the Pentecost, Mercury News reported that this did not cial on miracles some ten years before the font had mysteriously been refilled happen to the vial of oil the newspaper (figure 2). The home was filled with ef- with scented oil. Both her husband and received from Cora Lorenzo (Fernan- figies, including statues of the Virgin twenty-four-year-old son denied that dez 2001). and the children of Fatima, multiple

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above or outside the eyes of statuary for doing so, apparently, when the scene was an unconvincing “weeping” look, sepa- properly observed. As the Mercury News rately placed (not dripped from the reported nearly a decade earlier (Fer nan - eyes) onto hands, and indeed was indis- dez 2001), “During a reporter’s two visits tinguishable from careless human place- to Lorenzo’s house, oil was present on ment. In addition, Vískontas wondered the walls and statues, but did not flow on aloud why the oil would appear not only either occasion.” I showed Vískontas on religious items but also on walls, how a trickle that is already on a statue door jambs, and the like. or icon could go unnoticed from one The Miracle Detectives segment on low-light vantage point, then, as the the case, “Mysterious Oils” (the second viewer moved, catch light and glint as if part of the January 5, 2011, episode), it had suddenly appeared. (I have been featured a forensic construction expert, at sites where flickering candles placed Robert G. Cox, who has fifty years’ ex- before an oil icon could cause the trickles perience in building inspection. Cox’s to seem to be moving—flowing— findings matched my own. Demolish- al though they were actually static.) ing the idea that the oil was somehow There were no unambiguous fresh flows seeping into the room from outside— during the two days I was on site. as by Lorenzo possibly having “leaky oil Still, we agreed to test the issue using tanks in her attic” (Fernandez 2001)— video surveillance, although Sullivan was Cox pointed out that the gypsum dry- somewhat uneasy, feeling it amounted to Figure 2. The author poses with Cora Lorenzo, whose home is famous as a shrine that pilgrims visit for “healing” oil. wall was covered with enamel paint, “testing God.” However, he said to me, which he observed “is a fairly dense “That’s what you’re here to do is test copies of the image of Guada lupe and material.” Using a pocket microscope God, so, yeah.” Lorenzo gave her per- the Shroud of Turin, and other such re- he observed “dots” of oil, indicating it mission to do whatever we wanted, so productions. had been splattered onto the wall— we wiped down a large oil-exhibiting Initially puzzled by the proliferation similar to the spatter patterns I had statue of the Virgin, emptied the Lour- of oil, Vískontas nodded understand- noted here and there. Cox concluded des font, and then trained a surveillance ingly as we toured the display and I the oil was therefore appearing from in- camera on each. We also placed a small pointed out, using a magnifier, how the side the room. statue in a plastic bag, which Vískontas oil was often suspiciously placed (figure But was the oil freshly flowing as and I heat-sealed to prevent tampering, 3): it was spattered onto a mirror, placed some people believed? It was never and (although not shown on the program) I took custody of another that I monitored overnight in my hotel room. The next day the three of us reconvened at the Lorenzo home to check the re- [Oil] was spattered onto a mirror, sults of our tests. Not a single trace of fresh oil had appeared anywhere, as far placed above or outside the eyes as we could tell—certainly not on the effigies and font we had under observa- of statuary for an unconvincing tion. Things were not looking very “weeping” look, separately miraculous. Healing Oil? placed (not dripped from the Nevertheless, how do we explain the reported healings? First of all, they are just eyes) onto hands, and indeed that: reported. Besides, claims of “miraculous” healing are invariably predicated was indistinguishable from on being medically inexplicable, so claimants are simply engaging in a log- careless human placement. ical fallacy, argumentum ad ignorantiam (an “argument from ignorance”)—that is, drawing a conclusion based on a lack of knowledge.

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In fact, there are many potential ex - planations. For example, some illnesses such as multiple sclerosis are known to exhibit spontaneous remission. Other reputed cures may be attributable to such factors as misdiagnosis, prior medical treatment, psychosomatic conditions, the body’s own natural healing mechanisms, and other factors. For such reasons, the international panel of physicians appointed by the Catholic Church to identify “miracles” at Lourdes, the French “healing” shrine, announced in 2008 that it would end the practice. Now the panel will only indicate that some cases are “remarkable.” And remarkable healings may happen to anyone—inde- Figure 3. The author examines an oil-weeping Madonna on the porch of the Lorenzo home. (Photos by Joe Nickell) pendent of supposedly magical oil (Nickell 2008). enzo oil and found it to have a “spiri- kitchen drippings (Nickell 1999). Miracle Detectives examined the tual” quality. However, he did suggest With such cases in mind, I was happy claim of a woman named Marlene Al- that analysis of the oil could be signifi- the Lorenzo oil was to be tested. The berto who reported having been mirac- cant since “God’s oils are not synthetic laboratory report was instructive. While ulously healed of an eye ailment. Her by definition.” the substance was a vegetable oil, tests “symptoms suggested” that she had a Often, the testing of substances from also revealed the presence of a glycol macular hole in her left eye. Reportedly, weeping icons is of little benefit because, ether—a synthetic compound used as a doctors recommended she have sur- presumably, a deity could use any sub- fixative by the perfume industry (“in gery; she preferred not to accept the stance it wished and, anyway, it is the order,” Vískontas explained, “to keep el- risk, instead anointing her eye with oil question of how the substance got on ements together”). Sullivan agreed with from the Lorenzo home, whereupon the effigy in the first place that matters. Stewart that it was un likely God would the hole surprisingly closed. The show For example, actual “salty tears” were re- need to use a synthetic material. consulted Ronald P. Gallemore, MD, ported to flow from a plaster bas-relief With regard to the other evidence PhD, who pointed out that “sponta- in Pavia, Italy, but then the owner was (especially the placement of the oil), he neous closure” sometimes occurs in secretly observed applying the liquid said to Vískontas that although he was such cases, with the opening filling in with a water pistol (Nickell 1997). Nev- disappointed, “You and I both agree, I with scar tissue as a result of the body’s ertheless, in several cases tests have been think, that somebody’s putting that oil own healing processes. Although such revelatory. In 1913, a color print that there.” That had always seemed likely to spontaneous closures are rare, they are “bled” was exposed when the substance me, but now there was a preponderance not medically inexplicable and do not failed tests for human blood; in 1985 a of scientific evidence to that effect thanks warrant the term miracle. bleeding statue of the Virgin at a home to the Miracle Detectives investigation. n in Quebec was exposed as a hoax when A Case of Deception the blood was tested and found to be References When we emptied the Lourdes font mixed with animal fat (so that when the Fernandez, Lisa. 2001. Pilgrimage: Many doubt using a syringe, we filled some flint- mysterious oil can heal pain. San Jose Mercury room warmed from pilgrims’ body heat News (February 3). glass vials with the oil—one of which I the substance would liquefy and flow re- Nickell, Joe. 1997. Those tearful icons. Free In- kept while two others were sent to alistically); and a case in Sardinia in quiry 17(2) (Spring): 5, 7, 61. Flora Research Laboratories for testing. ———. 1999. Miracles or deception? The pathetic 1995 was solved when DNA tests case of Audrey Santo. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Meanwhile, the show consulted David showed the blood was that of the 23(5) (September/October): 16–18. Stewart, author of Healing Oils of the statue’s owner. In yet another instance, ———. 2008. Lourdes medical bureau rebels (author’s blog). Available online at http:// Bible (2002)—which is published by an involving a home with statues on which www.centerforinquiry.net/blogs/entry/ aromatherapy company and touts the oil appeared in the presence of a coma- lourdes_medical_bureau_rebels/; accessed inclusion of God and his creations (e.g., tose girl, the substance proved to be 80 April 12, 2010. Sullivan, Randall. 2004. The Miracle Detective: An oil-producing plants) in health care. percent vegetable oil and 20 percent Investigation of Holy Visions. New York: At- Stewart sniffed a sample of the Lor - chicken fat, consistent with the use of lantic Monthly Press.

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[ NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD MASSIMO POLIDORO Massimo Polidoro is an investigator of the paranormal, lecturer, and co-founder and head of CICAP, the Italian skeptics group. His website is at www.massimopolidoro.com.

I Was a Teenage Psychic

he psychic looks at us from the tel- years, now runs perfectly; another one For a few years, Geller had been able evision screen and says, “Take out has jumped ahead one hour; a Rolex to convince people (including scientists) Tyour broken watches and your cut- watch, whose whole inside mechanism that he could bend keys and forks, guess lery and bring them close to the televi- needed to be re placed at an estimated drawings in sealed enve lopes, and predict sion set: I will try to make something cost of nearly $1,000, now works per- future events with the power of his mind. happen in your own homes! Broken fectly. Over twenty-four more phone After various investigators showed that watches may start ticking again and calls from people reporting to have seen his claims had no scientific basis (Randi cutlery might bend; also, look out be - their broken watches being fixed follow! 1975; Marks and Kamman 1980; Gard- cause other strange phenomena may But that’s not all: dozens of other ner 1981), his career as a psychic super- happen: the chandelier may swing or people call to say that their spoons, star faded. the TV may go off. . . .” forks, and keys have bent; a glass of One of the most convincing perform- The psychic then attempts to cause water has begun to boil; a TV set has ances of this charismatic character was, the hands on the TV host’s watch to gone off; and much, much more (see in fact, his apparent ability to cause move backward by way of his “psychic table 1 for a description of the phenom- strange phenomena to happen directly powers.” While doing this, he invites the ena reported by TV viewers during this inside the houses of TV viewers. After viewers to concentrate on their own hour of broadcasting). this phenomenon regularly occurred (as watches, which the psychic is also trying The episode just described really took dozens of phone callers could testify each to fix. Suddenly, on the host’s watch we place in 1992 when, as a guest on a pop- time), the most obvious conclusion for see that the time has gone back two ular Italian TV show, L’Istruttoria (The most of the audience was that the phe- hours! Now is the time to check if some- Inquest), I had a chance to test a theory I nomenon had to be real because Geller thing has happened in the homes of the was rather curious about. With the com- could not possibly have had so many viewers: they are invited to call the TV plicity of the show’s host, I intended to stooges faking support for his claim. station and tell about their experiences. pose as a psychic and duplicate a demon- The paranormal, however, most likely The phones in the studio’s offices start stration that, during the 1970s, had made has nothing to do with this demonstra- ringing with miracles being reported famous a man who claimed to possess tion; the explanation in fact could lie with each call: a watch, stopped for many real psychic powers: Israel’s Uri Geller. more easily in an interesting effect of mass suggestion. It was not the first time I posed as a psychic to test this theory. In 1989, in fact, James “The Amazing” After only five minutes or so, about Randi asked me to claim psychic powers on a radio show in order to later demon- twenty people called reporting the strate, during the Exploring Psychic Pow- ers Live! TV show, how anyone could du- strangest things: a television set had plicate this phenomenon just by the turned on all by itself; a cat was behaving clever use of suggestion. I did as Randi instructed and went on the radio show strangely; a picture had fallen from and claimed that as I was talking incredible things would start to happen in the the wall; a bulb in a lamp had ex ploded... houses of the listeners. and much more. After only five minutes or so, about twenty people called reporting the strangest things: a television set had turned on all by itself; a cat was behav-

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ing strangely; a picture had fallen from gated to give what I had to say more at- Owing to the sense of compliance to- the wall; a bulb in a lamp had ex ploded; tention. ward authority, which is profoundly in- a book on spiritualism had fallen from Furthermore, in both cases my claims fused in human beings, some spectators the table; the whole computer network were not doubted by the hosts: both ex- may well have surrendered to the judg- of a lawyer’s office had gone down; and pressed their belief in their reality and ment of the hosts and undertaken the much more. pretended they were very puzzled. This same attitude of wonder that the hosts There was nothing extraordinary way, I was benefitting from the authority exhibited toward my claims. At this about those things. They happen often factor, a principle whose strength has point, the message we wanted to get but nobody pays much attention them been clearly shown by Stanley Milgram. through—namely, that I had real psychic or thinks that they must be related to some psychic phenomenon; however, after the listeners had been alerted by Table 1. Phenomena Reported by the TV Viewers of L’Istruttoria me to watch for unusual phenomena, During an Hour of Broadcasting almost any event that occurred while I was talking could easily be interpreted Italian City Phenomena Notes as evidence for my claims by the most Cesate (Province of Milan) three watches restart had been stopped for at least suggestible people. four years Let’s try, then, to understand the Arezzo watch runs briefly had been stopped for more psychological conditions that can gen- than 100 years erate and enhance a similar belief in Senago (Province of Milan) watch starts again had been stopped for two some listeners. months Perugia clock works again had been “broken” Persuasion in Action Cagliari two watches restart had been stopped for ten We are obviously dealing with some of years the major principles of persuasion, in- Cuneo watch jumps six hours ahead had been stopped at the time cluding the reciprocity principle, the Roma watch restarts had been stopped for years authority factor, the motivation and co- Milano watch restarts had been “broken” herence principle, the shortage princi- Parma clock runs an hour had been broken for two years ple, the sympathy principle, and the so- Napoli watch runs briefly had been stopped for years cial confirmation principle. Robert B. Milano clock runs backward had been stopped for twenty- Cialdini has summarized these princi- five years ples very clearly. According to Cial dini, Frosinone watch runs fast had been “broken” these principles come into play almost Milano watch restarts had been stopped for two automatically and therefore are easily years exploited by those who know how they Bari clock runs fast had been stopped for two work. Let’s see how these principles years apply to the situations described above. Alghero watch (Rolex) restarts owner saved from expensive First of all, the “psychic” sets the repairs stage: he presents himself to the public Province of Milan two spoons are misplaced stopped watch also started as a believable person. In my case, at the Fidenza watch jumps an hour ahead had been stopped for months beginning of the radio broadcast, the Napoli two watches restart had been stopped for years host told his listeners that some Italian Roma watch restarts had been “broken” universities were conducting experi- Mazzara del Vallo key bends It was not the one held in the ments on my powers; on TV, I was able hand to demonstrate my claimed powers by Catania watch hands go back and forth had been stopped for two bending and breaking a spoon, correctly years guessing a drawing sealed in an enve- Modena bent spoon straightens also the TV set went off lope, and making some radish seeds Torino Four pieces of cutlery bend germinate in my hand. In other words, Bari fork bends “by itself” Imperia glass of water “boils” had already happened I had offered something solid to the Cuneo spoon bends a watch also stopped viewers: convincing demonstrations of Trieste spoon bends had already happened extraordinary powers. The reciprocity Napoli watch restarts had been stopped for a long principle, which states that we have to time reciprocate when we’re given some- Cagliari watch breaks up thing, was then activated. In this case, Cagliari pendulum clock stops in exchange for my demonstration the TV viewer might have felt more obli-

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powers—was already appearing as a con- Conclusion can’t surrender to this without fighting. sistent hypothesis by a considerable Considering the complexity of the world The stakes are too high” (217). n number of the viewers. in which we live, it is natural that people, References For the persuasion to be effective, in making their decisions, do not take ad- Cialdini, Robert. B. 1984. Influence: How and Why however, the spectators had to feel mo- vantage of all the available data but rely People Agree to Things. New York: William tivated to participate in the experi- only on some isolated and representative Morrow and Company. Gardner, Martin. 1981. Science: Good, Bad, and ment—and what better motivation item. This “economy” strategy to proceed Bogus. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books. than the possibility of personally living by shortcuts inevitably leads us to make Harris, Ben. 1985. Gellerism Revealed. Calgary: an extraordinary experience and com- inferences on the basis of incomplete Hades International. ing face-to-face with the supernatural? data; consequently, wrong decisions are Harris, Richard Jackson. 2009. A Cognitive Psyc - hology of Mass Communication, fifth edition. This persuasion was especially effective often made. As Cialdini (1984) wrote: London: Routledge. because I was constantly repeating that “We need simple, reliable, and effective Marks, D., and R. Kamman. 1980. The Psychology these phenomena didn’t happen all the rules of conduct. But if the tricks of the of the Psychic. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books. time and didn’t happen to just anyone: sharks undermine their functionality, we Pratkanis, Anthony. Age of Propaganda. New York: only the few “chosen” ones could live loose faith in these rules; we then use A.H. Freeman and Company. this wonderful experience. This is the them less, and we find ourselves ill Randi, James. 1975. The Magic of Uri Geller. New York: Ballantine. Reprinted as The Truth shortage principle: an experience ap - equipped in facing the burden of deci- About Uri Geller (1983). Amherst, NY: Pro - pears more attractive if its availability sions that today’s life places upon us. We metheus Books. ap pears to be limited. Also, the fact that I had an unas- suming attitude (and that I apologized various times in case the demonstration failed) helped to make me more like- able: without acknowledging it, the spectators were wishing for everything to go well and were ready to act their Where can you hear the leading voices of skepticism and science on a weekly part toward achieving this aim. At this point, the spectators were basis? On Point of Inquiry, the Center for Inquiry’s podcast and radio show, ready to interpret anything happening which is now one of the most popular science programs online. in their houses (no matter how prosaic) Listen for free at www.pointofinquiry.org today! as proof of the reality of my psychic powers. There was still one more very Each week, Point of Inquiry brings you incisive interviews, important persuasive factor that played features, and commentary, focusing on the three research areas of the a role as soon as the phone calls started Center for Inquiry: pseudoscience and the paranormal; alternative medicine; arriving: the social confirmation prin- and religion, ethics, and society. ciple. “If so many people call to say that their cat is behaving strangely or that In addition to new shows every Friday, the entire archive of past episodes their watches are working again,” some can be accessed online at www.pointofinquiry.org. spectators may have wondered, “maybe I should call in to say that the light Previous popular guests include: went off for a few seconds!” RICHARD DAWKINS | SAM HARRIS The illusion created by the number NEIL DEGRASSE TYSON | ANN DRUYAN of phone calls coming in was that all the spectators tuned into that same and many more! channel were personally experiencing Hosted by some spectacular demonstration of psychic phenomena—a fact that in evitably nourished further phone calls and could have very well resulted in headlines on the following day’s newspapers had we not revealed the experiment. In reality, the small percentage of spectators call- Chris Mooney Robert M. Price Karen Stollznow ing was enough to quickly jam the switchboard of the TV station for a few www.PointofInquiry.org hours.

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[ THINKING ABOUT SCIENCE MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI Massimo Pigliucci is professor of philosophy at the City University of New York–Lehman College, a fellow of the American Association for the Advance ment of Science, and author of Nonsense on Stilts: How to Tell Science from Bunk. His essays can be found at www.rationallyspeaking.org.

The Science of Unique Events

here has been a modicum of soul- games to minors, a law that was passed that fact in and of itself is insufficient to searching and much finger-point- on the assumption that one can estab- determine causality. Several other causes Ting in the United States in the past lish a causal link between a general must have concurred, including the ac- several weeks in the aftermath of the trend (more and more young people tions of the person who was smoking Tucson shootings, in which a gunman play violent video games) and individ- said cigarette, the fire alarm that did not armed with a semiautomatic pistol ual acts of violence perpetrated by a go off, the sprinkler system that was in- killed six people and injured thirteen small subset of the target population. sufficient, the delayed re sponse of the fire more. Was the violent rhetoric recently The critics of all three purported department itself, and so on. We tend to displayed by so many politicians on the links—political rhetoric and the Arizona focus on the burning cigarette because right causally responsible for Jared Lee shooting, climate change and Katrina, from the human perspective, and partic- Loughner’s lethal rampage? Or does the and video game violence and individual ularly in terms of legal and perhaps tone of political discourse have nothing episodes of actual violence—are correct. moral responsibility, that seems to be the whatsoever to do with individual, inher- There is no way to reliably connect any crucial event. But we need to understand ently unpredictable, acts of violence? individual event to a general trend be- the very special meaning of “crucial” in I will not enter here into the merits cause we typically have what philoso- this case. of the political discourse, although as a phers call a very limited epistemic access Again, back to the Arizona tragedy: philosopher with an interest in ethics I to the complex causality that determines Suppose that the suspect, Jared Lee must mention that the kind of rhetoric individual events. Consider the classic Loughner, actually told the police that we have seen of late on prominent dis- example of a house fire. The official re- the reason he started shooting in that play by so many of our politicians is port by the fire department may say that, shopping center that morning was be- most definitely not a good thing—eth- for instance, a cigarette left accidentally cause he was convinced by radio talk burning near a mattress caused a fire. But host X or politician Y that something ically speaking, if nothing else. Still, the question remains but is—I will argue—simply impossible to answer. We do have other examples of I must mention that the kind of similar questions, however, and perhaps we can learn from those. For instance, rhetoric we have seen of late on former Vice President Al Gore has been roundly criticized, I think justifi- prominent display by so many of ably, for implying in his book and movie, An Inconvenient Truth, that we our politicians is most definitely can causally link individual disasters like Hurricane Katrina to the (in my not a good thing—ethically mind, undeniable) global trend of climate change. Similarly, on November speaking, if nothing else. 2, 2010, the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments concerning a California law prohibiting the sale of M-rated video

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had to be done in order to save Amer- mate change, sales of violent video sea surface temperatures and intense ica from the disasters caused by De- games) and another class of events in tropical cyclone activity, at least from mocrats who voted for health-care re- which we are particularly in terested 1970 on (data before then is not suffi- form. Even then we cannot really say (number of violent assaults on political ciently reliable to establish longer term that the rhetoric actually caused the targets, number of hurricanes, episodes connections). tragedy because several other factors of youth violence)? Of course, as is often the case in cur - had to enter into it—from the ready That is the sort of question that sci- rent science, none of this is even close to availability of semi-automatic weapons ence is equipped to answer, at least being settled. Some psychologists dis- to something going clearly wrong in broad ly speaking. I am not aware of agree with the above-mentioned meta- Loughner’s own brain. After all, plenty available data pertinent to a connection analyses, and our conclusions concerning of other people, including many gun between political rhetoric and violence hurricanes are tempered by the fact, for owners, heard or read the same inflam- against politicians, but we do have data instance, that there is no correlation be- matory words uttered by right-wing in the other two cases. Accord ing to a tween in creased sea surface temperatures politicians and commentators, but that review by Beth Azar for the American and the number of storms (only in their was not sufficient to make them go out Psychological Associa tion (http://goo. intensity). And then there is always the and start shooting people. gl/4p80A), a broadening consensus very tricky issue that a correlation sug- Is there therefore nothing that sci- based on meta-analyses is emerging gests (sometimes strongly) but does not ence can say about this sort of question? that yes, there indeed is a relationship establish a causal link. Still, particularly If not, then we are looking at a pretty be tween violent video games and young when it comes to important social issues serious practical limitation of the scien- peoples’ attitudes toward violence and (violence, climate change) we need to tific approach to understanding reality. the likelihood that they will engage in make decisions with the best science we I don’t think the situation is that dire. violent acts. Similarly, a report pub- have, not the best we can ideally hope for. What we can do is to ask a different but lished by the U.S. Global Change Re - This is why I am really curious to see related question: Is there a statistical search Pro gram (http://goo.gl/RDlpG) whether there are studies examining the connection be tween a certain class of confirms the existence of a statistical re- potential statistical link between political events (in crease in political rhetoric, cli- lationship between increased tropical rhetoric and violence. n

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24 Volume 35 Issue 3 | Skeptical Inquirer SI May June 11 CUT_SI new design masters 3/25/11 10:02 AM Page 25

[ PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ROBERT SHEAFFER “Psychic Vibrations” has appeared in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER for the past thirty years. Sheaffer is also author of UFO Sightings: The Evi dence (Prometheus 1998). His website is at www.debunker.com.

Abductology Implodes

bductology is the study of alleged time miniseries based on Hopkins’s derstand all that technical stuff. I thank UFO abductions. Not since the book Intruders, the same year there was you guys. That’s why we invited you A sudden demise of Marxist- an “Abduction Study Conference” at here, to help us.” Not long afterward, Leninism has any subject, real or imag- Massachusetts Institute of Technology Mack described some sort of test or sur- ined, self-destructed so suddenly and (MIT) sponsored by David Pritchard of vey he was doing with his subjects. He completely as abductology has just now the physics department. So confident ran into similar objections from the sci- managed to do. were the abductologists that they were entifically literate crowd. I was waiting Twenty years ago, abductology was ready for prime time, they invited jour- for Mack to say, “I’m sorry. I’m just a riding high, led by its troika of John nalists, academics, and even skeptics (I professor of psychiatry at Harvard Uni- Mack, a respected Harvard psychiatrist; attended for the Committee for the Sci- versity, and I don’t understand all that Budd Hopkins, artist and amateur hyp- entific Investigation of Claims of the technical stuff.” But he did not. notist; and David Jacobs, onetime UFO Paranormal, now CSI—the Com mittee So what brought down abductology? historian turned abduction guru. The for Skeptical Inquiry). How ever, MIT In a deadly one-two punch, “Emma earliest reported UFO abductions in went to extraordinary lengths using Woods,” the alias of one of Jacobs’s for- the United States—Betty and Barney “non-disclosure forms” to control how mer subjects, is now publicly accusing Hill in 1961 and a trickle of others, in- the conference was reported. him of unprofessional conduct and has cluding Travis Walton in 1975—typi- The conference, however, did not un - recordings to support her allegations. cally in volved going outside to some fold as smoothly as its organizers This was followed by Hopkins’s ex-wife lonely and deserted spot at night, where planned. Many academics, even those spilling the beans about his gullibility one allegedly encountered aliens and inclined toward UFO or paranormal be- and intellectual dishonesty. was kidnapped. It was Hopkins who lief, objected mightily to the loose “Woods” was a hypnotic subject of severed that connection completely in “methods” of Mack and his gang. In one David Jacobs from 2004 to 2007. All of the early 1980s. No longer was it nec- of Hopkins’s talks, he de scribed a survey her sessions took place over the tele- essary to be outside in some scary place he conducted of children by showing phone. She has written long and de tailed at night for a UFO abduction to occur: them pictures of unusual things to de- accounts of her complaint against Jacobs, in the new Hopkins-style abductions, termine which ones they were familiar which she has circulated widely within the aliens could come right into your with. Their answers supposedly indi- UFOlogy circles. Assum ing she can doc- bedroom and snatch you up, often pass- cated whether or not they might have ument all of her charges, Jacobs appears ing through solid walls in the process. been abducted. He was met by an ava- in a sorry light indeed. She accuses Ja- According to Hopkins, if your kid calls lanche of objections: he didn’t normal- cobs of telling her, during hypnosis ses- out “Mommy, there’s a monster under ize; he didn’t validate; etc. In other sions, that she suffers from Multiple Per- my bed,” the kid just might be right. words, his survey was worthless. Chas- sonality Disorder (MPD). She also Abductology became so credible tened, Hopkins said something like “I’m accuses him of planting false memories that CBS-TV produced a 1992 prime- sorry. I’m just an artist and I don’t un- in her of evil aliens abducting her, raping

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her, and even trying to kill her. She says us—exactly what he ordered for the she felt sick every time she saw the ocean book he was writing. How ever, it’s because she “remembered” an alien hy- anything but a typical ab ductee’s experience: violent sexual encounters brid holding her head under water. In with a human/alien hy brid; a request 2006 Jacobs wrote to her in an e-mail: “I by the good Doctor (Ph.D. in his- am in a rather severe crisis with the tory, non-medical) to send him her aliens. I will be talking to them tonight panties, unwashed, so they could be about my future and what they will or tested for alien sperm; and a proposal that she [was to] wear a chastity belt will not do to me.” The alien hybrids with nails across the vaginal opening, were using another woman’s instant mes- which he’d locate for her from (in Ja- saging account to communicate with cobs words) “a sex shop that special- him (but of course she did not type the ized in bondage/domi nance, a place messages, the hybrids did). Ap parently, that I frequented quite often.” Jacobs reached an agreement with the An experienced documentary filmmaker aliens: he would agree to check their on- in the medical field, Rainey soon real- line messages frequently, and they would ized that “what Hopkins and Jacobs agree not to abduct him to implant a claim as ‘the powerful evidence’ for alien tracking chip. Problem solved. abductions and hybrids among us is

In 2006 Jacobs wrote to [“Woods”] in an e-mail: “I am in a rather severe crisis with the aliens. I will be talking to them tonight about my future and what they will or will not do to me.”

“Emma Woods” is now considering based primarily on the powerful, hyp- legal action against Temple University, notic repetition of their own proclama- Jacobs’s employer. (Jacobs has no train- tions—and the public’s gullibility in being in medicine, psychology, or hypnosis; lieving whatever un founded theories he is a historian.) The woman even has these star paranormal investigators punt a website at www.ufoalienabductee. down the field.” She became increas- com/. ingly skeptical of one of Hopkins’s star Jacobs’s website (www.ufoabduction. abductees, James Mor tellaro: com/) has a response to what he calls the “defamation campaign” against him. Re- Several things about this case were ferring to “Emma Woods” as “Alice,” Ja- making me increasingly uneasy. It wasn’t just the pills and the pistol cobs says that she appears to suffer from [that he always kept in his boot]. Or Borderline Per sonality Disorder and has the fact that none of Jim’s claims had been experiencing an “emotional break- been checked or verified. Among his down.” more mundane statements, Jim Mor - The second punch, one I was not at tellaro had earlier told Budd that he all expecting, comes from Carol Rainey, had two Ph.D.s (Really? That’s im - the ex-wife of Hopkins. Upon reading pressive, the skeptical wife thinks the “Emma Woods” ac count, she from behind the camera. From which universities?) and that he’d been “the jumped into the fray: Marketing Director for Hitachi” be- The trusting and vulnerable patient fore retiring early. (Really? Was that delivered up to Jacobs his hoped-for Regional, National, or Inter national narrative of predatory hybrids among Market ing Director?)

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But Hopkins wasn’t curious. Later, long after he knew that Linda had lied paratopia.net/paratopia_magazine/ Hop kins received several phone mes- to him on multiple occasions,” according mag_preview_final.pdf. Her website is sages from individuals who called to to Rainey. at www.carolrainey.com/home.html. confirm key portions of Mortellaro’s Another thing we learn from Rainey In hindsight, this outcome was in- story. Hopkins may have been fooled by is that Leslie Kean, the author of the evitable. As anyone who ever tried to them but Rainey wasn’t: “I’ve spent best-selling book UFOs: Generals, Pilots, have a rational conversation with either twenty-plus years in post-production and Government Offi cials Go On the Hopkins or Jacobs can attest, the two suites, with the editor or the mixer al- Record is “Budd’s new protege, advisor, men are extraordinarily smug and self- tering voices up, down, and sideways,” and all-round organizer” (see my review righteous, even pigheaded. They are she told her husband. “It’s certainly not of her book in the March/April 2011 correct; you are wrong and probably rocket science and Jim knows electron- SKEPTICAL INQUIRER). Now we begin stupid as well. It’s as simple as that. ics. Listen, that’s his syntax, that’s the to understand why Kean is so impervi- (Apart from a quick “Hello, how are way he says ‘very concerned’ and drops ous to any facts that contradict her pub- you?” in passing, I never got a chance to his ‘gs’ on certain words.” But instead of lished position: she likely learned this chat with Mack. The circles he moved becoming suspicious of his “abductee,” modus operandi from Hop kins. Rainey in were far too rarefied for me to enter.) Hopkins be came angry with his wife. Rainey assisted her husband in ed- iting his book on the famous abduction “In our house, the words ‘debunkers’ story of Linda “Cortile” (her surname was an alias). According to Rainey: and ‘skeptics’ were used very much It was highly dramatic, paced like a in the way that devout Christians thriller—full of otherworldly treach- ery, forbidden love, UFOs over Man - use the words ‘unbelievers’ and hattan, twenty-two witnesses, a hero- ine whose red blood cells were ‘the unsaved.’”—Carol Rainey immortal, lusty and dangerous Secret Service agents, a Prince from afar, gifts of many fur coats, chases on foot, notes, “In our house, the words ‘de- In their own circles, each of these more forbidden love, an X-rayed alien implant, Linda’s abduction into a bunkers’ and ‘skeptics’ were used very three men is a god, more or less, and one spacecraft accompanied by an impor- much in the way that devout Christians doesn’t question godlike beings. There’s tant world leader, her abduction into use the words ‘unbelievers’ and ‘the un- truth in the old biblical saying that a spacecraft with other members of saved.’” Rainey observes: “Pride goeth before a fall.” When some- Budd’s abductee support group, and one smugly thinks he is invariably cor- her abduction into a spacecraft ac - The two best-known abduction in - companied by a famous Mafia don. vestigators, Budd Hopkins and David rect no matter how foolish his pro- Then, later, as the story continued to Jacobs, work almost exclusively alone nouncements (somehow Sylvia Browne unfold (long after the book’s publica- (separately, although with extensive comes to mind), sooner or later that tion), Linda’s presence in the lobby of telephone exchanges), without super- foolish factor will grow so large that the World Trade Center when the vision (and are unwilling to ac cept even many of the person’s sycophants any), and without any training in planes hit and her bloody, barefoot es- won’t be able to ignore it. cape over shards of glass. Although . . . medicine or psychiatry or neurology. not all of those events reported above A bit of comparative religion, anthro- Whither abductology? John Mack by Linda Cortile had been selected by pology, and folklore under the belt was struck by a car and killed in 2004. Budd for inclusion in the book. I wouldn’t hurt, either, in dealing with Budd Hopkins has been publicly hu- knew about them, but they weren’t in these difficult-to-interpret human ex- miliated by the shocking exposé of his the book. periences. They’re not required to get authorization for their experimenta- knavery and foolishness written by his The fact that the book was titled The tion on human beings from an Insti - ex-wife and former collaborator. As for Brooklyn Bridge Abductions did nothing tutional Review Board (IRB), a David Jacobs, if there were a contest for to enhance its credibility. This story al- clearance that’s required of every le - “stupidest and most humiliating state- gitimate institutional researcher in ready produced a huge stink in UFOlogy the country. Its peer review of a pro- ments,” he would be a strong contender. during the 1990s when some UFOlo- posed study using human subjects No doubt UFO abduction claims will gists tried to independently confirm [is] strict, and researchers are re- trickle on for a while, but it’s clear that some of Linda’s wild tales and came up quired to report back to the IRB abductology as practiced by the troika with nothing (see my “Levi tated Linda, with their findings. None of this ap- in its heyday is now considered to be an plies to UFO researchers. Ear Coning, and Arke ology,” SI, Spring embarrassing chapter in the history of 1993). Worse yet, Hopkins “continued to Carol Rainey’s long and revealing UFOlogy that should be forgotten as tout the major significance of the case article can be found online at www. quickly as possible. n

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[ THE SCIENCE OF MEDICINE STEVEN NOVELLA Steven Novella, MD, is assistant professor of neurology at Yale School of Medicine, the host of the Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe podcast, author of the NeuroLogica blog, executive editor of the Science-Based Medicine blog, and president of the New England Skeptical Society.

The Memory of Water

omeopathy is nonsense and su- It is often falsely compared to the have failed miserably. One such at tempt perstition diluted beyond all rea- body’s response to vaccines, but this is is the notion that water is capable of Hson and given as a remedy to the not an apt analogy. having memory—that it can physically grossly misinformed or scientifically il- Hahnemann’s “law of infinitessimals,” remember the chemical properties of literate. And yet there persists that very the notion that a substance be comes substances that have been diluted in it. odd creature, the modern homeo path. more potent when diluted, violates the The notion of water memory was first While the practice is indistinguishable law of mass action and every thing we raised by French homeopath Jacques from ritual and witchcraft (with all know about chemistry. Also, many Benveniste in 1988. He was not studying due apologies to witches), the modern homeopathic remedies are diluted past the water structure itself, just trying to homeo path would like to cloak himself the point where even a single molecule demonstrate that water can retain the in the respectability of science. That is of the original substance is likely to be memory of antibodies or other substances the path to acceptance, official recogni- left behind. Hahnemann believed that diluted in it. His research, however, has tion, and reimbursement. So home- the water retained the magical “essence” been completely discredited due to the opaths have added a new head to their of the substance, which makes homeop- many flaws in Ben veniste’s methods, his hydra of pseudoscience—the memory athy a vitalistic belief system. lab’s cherry-picking of data, his im proper of water. Hahnemann’s ideas are sufficiently statistics, and his recounting data points silly that even at the time, early in the that did not fit their desired results A Brief History of Homeopathy history of science, they were ridiculed (Scrimgeour 2007). Homeopathy was invented (it is not ac- and dismissed. Homeopathy remains Materials scientist Rustum Roy, who curate to say it was discovered, which utterly nonsensical, but it is now much was enamored with spiritual healing, would imply it has some basis in reality) more sophisticated nonsense. built upon Benveniste’s discredited re- by Samuel Hahnemann in the late A recent fascination with unscien- search, claiming that water molecules eighteenth century. Hahnemann devel- tific health modalities has caused a are like bricks—they can be used to oped his principles of homeopathy resurgence of interest in homeopathy, build structures that contain greater from anecdote and superstition without leading to many clinical trials of the ef- complexity and information than the any chain of scientific research, evi- fectiveness of homeopathic products for bricks themselves. Specifically, water dence, or reasoning. It is therefore no specific ailments. After hundreds of molecules can encode in their structure surprise that more than two hundred clinical studies of homeopathy, system- the chemical properties of what was di- years later, scientific progress has failed atic reviews reveal that homeopathic luted in them. to validate any of Hahnemann’s ideas remedies are indistinguishable from However, the evidence does not sup- (House of Commons 2010). placebos (another way of saying that port this claim. What has been demon- Scientific knowledge builds on itself, they do not work) (Ernst 2010). strated is that water molecules form and when someone discovers a funda- This is not even a scientific contro- transient bonds with other water mole- mental property of nature, it leads to versy—the evidence that homeopathy cules, creating a larger ultrastructure— further discoveries and a deepened un- cannot work and does not work is over- but these water structures are extremely derstanding. Homeopathy led to noth- whelming. Only ideology, wishful think- short-lived. They are not permanent. In ing. Hahnemann’s “law of similars” is ing, and scientific illiteracy keep it alive. fact, research shows that water molecules the notion that “like cures like”—that a very efficiently distribute energy from small dose of a substance will cure Water Memory these bonds, making them ex tremely whatever symptoms it would cause in a Modern defenders have desperately ephemeral. One such research paper high dose. This, however, is not based tried to justify homeopathy with scien- concludes: “Our results highlight the ef- upon anything in biology or chemistry. tific-sounding explanations, but they ficiency of energy redistribution within

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the hydrogen-bonded network, and that tures would have to survive transfer to a them to be useful as oral agents. The liquid water essentially loses the memory sugar pill (often homeopathic remedies chemicals are simply broken down by of persistent correlations in its structure are prepared by a drop of the water the digestive process. In other words, within 50 fs” (Cowan 2005). That’s fifty being placed onto a sugar pill). the ephemeral bonds of this alleged femotoseconds, or fifty quadrillionths These water structures would then water memory—if this fiction of water (10-15) of a second. Contrary to Roy’s have to be transferred to the sugar mol- memory even existed—would have a claims, water does not hold memory. In ecules because before long the water bioavailability of zero. fact it is characterized by being ex- will evaporate. This pill will then sit on tremely efficient at not holding memory. Scientists can argue about whether or not water can display ultrastructure lin- Absurd does not even begin to cover gering for longer than femtoseconds under certain conditions—but they are the leaps of logic that are being arguing over incredibly small fractions of committed here. In short, invoking a second. Recently Nobel Laureate Luc Mon- water memory as an explanation for tagnier has given a boost to the “water memory” hopes of homeopaths by pub- homeopathic effects just adds more lishing a series of experiments in which layers of magical thinking to the he claims that DNA highly diluted in water is able to generate radio signals notion of homeopathy. (Montagnier 2009). There are numerous problems with these studies, however. Prime among them is that Montagnier’s a shelf for days, months, or years before Conclusion study design is laughably sloppy (see it is finally consumed by a gullible pa- The notion that water has memory is Myers 2011). Montagnier used a crude tient. The sugar pill will be broken nothing more than a restating of Hah- signal detection device hooked up to a down in the homeopathy proponent’s nemann’s superstitious notion that sub- computer and generated worthless noise- stomach, and the sugar molecules will stances can transfer their “vital essence” ridden results. His studies proved noth- then be digested, absorbed into the to other substances. Water memory is ing (and, not surprisingly, have not been blood stream, and distributed through another fiction of homeo pathy; it is not replicated), but that has not stopped the blood to the tissues of the body. based upon any science and is implau- homeopaths from seizing upon his work Presumably, whatever molecules are sible in the extreme. n to claim vindication. retaining this alleged ultrastructure are So we are still left with no plausibil- sticking together throughout all of these References ity and no evidence that water can form processes and finding their way to the Cowan M.L., B.D. Bruner, N. Huse, et al. 2005. Ultrafast memory loss and energy redistribu- ultrastructures for a biologically mean- target organ in which they are able to tion in the hydrogen bond network of liquid ingful amount of time. It is amazing have their chemical/biological effect. H2O. Nature 434 (March 10):199–202. that Roy, Montagnier, and others so en- Absurd does not even begin to cover doi:10.1038/nature03383. Ernst, E. 2010. Homeopathy: What does the thusiastically extrapolated from the the leaps of logic that are being com- “best” evidence tell us? The Medical Journal of claim that water can hold structures mitted here. In short, invoking water Australia 192(8) (April 19): 458–60. slightly longer than previously believed memory as an explanation for homeo- House of Commons, Science, and Technology Committee. Evidence check 2: Homeopathy. (itself probably bogus) to the notion pathic effects just adds more layers of Available online at www.publications.parlia- that this can explain the biological ef- magical thinking to the notion of ho- ment.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/ fectiveness of homeopathy. Let’s take a meopathy; it wouldn’t offer a plausible 45/45.pdf. explanation even if the theory of water Myers, P.Z. 2011. It almost makes me disbelieve close look at the nontrivial steps they that HIV causes AIDS. Pharyngula ( January glossed over. memory was true, which it isn’t. 24). Available online at http://scienceblogs. If this kind of water “memory” is an Some chemical bonds are strong com/pharyngula/2011/01/it_almost_makes_ explanation for homeopathy, then these enough to survive this process intact me_disbelieve.php. Montagnier L., J. Aissa, S. Ferris, et al. 2009. structures would have to survive not and make it through the body to the Electromagnetic signals are produced by only in a sample of water but through target tissue where they can bind to re- aqueous nanostructures derived from bacterial the physical mixing of that water with ceptors or undergo their chemical reac- DNA sequences. Interdisciplinary Sciences: Computational Life Sciences 1(2): 81–90. other water. In fact, they would have to tions. Even most chemicals, however, Scrimgeour, H.J. 2007. Water memory tests all wet: transfer their structure, like a template, cannot make it through this biological A reassessment of the Benveniste experiments to surrounding water molecules. This gauntlet with their chemical activity in- by a DVM. Association for Science and Reason (August 8). Available online at www.science- would need to be reliably repeatable tact—which is why the bioavailability andreason.ca/pseudoscience/alternativemedi- over many dilutions. Then these struc- of many potential drugs is too low for cine/water-memory-tests-all-wet/.

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[ SCIENCE WATCH KENNETH W. KRAUSE Kenneth W. Krause is a contributing editor, books editor, and “The Good Book” columnist for the Humanist and a contributing editor and columnist for the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. E-mail: [email protected].

Denisovans and Human Hybrids in the Game-Changing Age of Paleogenetics

f God created man in his own image, planted other humans, by whatever (Green 2010; the subject of my “Science as the opening chapter of Genesis means, rather than mixing with them. Watch” column of September/October Idemands, he must have first created Contrarily, “classic multiregionalists” tend 2010). A paleogeneticist at the Max the carnival fun-house mirror as a refer- to follow University of Michigan’s Mil- Planck Institute in Leipzig, Germany, ence tool. Since the ancestors of chim- ford Wolpoff, who, with the minority, Pääbo revealed that 1–4 percent of the panzees and modern humans split be- contends that modern H. sapiens were modern, non-African human genome tween six and eight million years ago, conceived outside of Africa through the was derived from our burly cousins. In different species of hominin have evolved genetic intermingling of perhaps many other words, Neander tals and modern or retained bizarre muddles of seemingly human groups. humans, whose lineages split between strange and unlikely features—branch- But, to nearly everyone’s surprise, 440,000 and 270,000 years ago, likely grasping feet, sprawling pelvises, flared both paradigms were challenged on interbred in the Middle East between rib cages, chinless mandibles, protruding May 7, 2010, when an international 80,000 and 50,000 years ago. brow ridges, and, of course, ex panded team of scientists led by Svante Pääbo Unfortunately, the Neandertal Ge - brains, just to name a few. published a draft sequence of the Nean- nome Project largely obscured another But recent discoveries have compli- dertal genome in Science magazine important hominin discovery, from cated the more contemporary human narrative too. When our direct ancestors—a small but well-fated population New Hominid Joins the Family of Homo sapiens—emigrated from DNA sequencing shows new primate species that may Africa into the Near East over 50,000 have shared a common ancestor with humans years ago, the Eurasian landmass had already been inhabited by a variety of Four hominid species DNA taken from bone fragment of small humans. The Neandertals, for example, May have roamed the The Siberian child 30,000 – 48,000 flourished in the west until about earth at the same time, hominid around 40,000 years ago years old found in the 28,000 years ago, while Homo floresiensis Denisova Cave persisted in present-day Indonesia until Neanderthals around 17,000 years ago. NEW! Were there others? If so, did our an- RUSSIA cestors simply wipe them out, along Homo Altai mountains with all genetic remnants of their exis- Sapiens tence? Or did they interbreed with the other humans as their numbers swiftly expanded into both Europe and Asia? Two schools of thought have long dominated the debate. Led by Chris UNDERUTE Stringer at the National History Mu- DISPUTEDISP seum in London, disciples of the majori- Flores “hobbit” man tarian “complete replacement” model Was it a separate species? argue that our ancestors simply sup- Source: Nature 250310

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which two major papers eventually re- sia, Canada, and the United States between Denisovans and Neandertals, sulted. First, on April 8, 2010, a spare, (Reich 2010). Wasting no time, they re- Pääbo then performed a separate yet sim- seven-member team led by Pääbo and analyzed the finger bone and another in- ilar comparison between seven an cient his Leipzig colleague Johannes Krause dividual’s tooth—a second or third and modern genomes—Deniso van, Ne- published its findings vis-à-vis the mi- upper-left molar—discovered in the andertal, French, Han, Papuan, San tochondrial genome of an unfamiliar same cave by Dere vianko back in 2000. (southern Africa), and Yoruba (West human recovered from a deep forest in Pääbo’s combined results from 2010 Africa). The Denisovan and Neandertal southern Siberia (Krause 2010). might prove so profound as to forever sequences separated 9.84 percent of the In 2008, Russian archaeologist Ana- transform our conceptions of recent way back, and both of them separated toli Derevianko—who would ulti- human evolution—and thus, the relative from the sequences of present-day mately join the Pääbo-Krause team— constitution of every contemporary pop- Africans 12.38 percent of the way back. found a female child’s distal manual ulation. At the very least, we’re left with To confirm, Pääbo’s team lined up phalanx, or pinkie bone, in Denisova a fascinating yet frustratingly complex the Denisovan, Neandertal, and Yoruba Cave in the Altai Mountains of pres- web of human migrations, interactions, sequences to the chimp genome and ent-day Russia. Although the finger and colonizations following the ances- compared derived (evolved) and ances- couldn’t be tested directly, its surrounding tors’ final exodus from Africa. tral alleles. They found that the stratum was radiocarbon dated to be- Having sequenced the Denisovan Denisovan and Neandertal clustered to tween 48,000 and 30,000 years old. Re- nuclear genome to 1.9-fold coverage— the exclusion of the Yoruba and chim- luctant to grant the child a taxonomic that is, on average, identifying sequence panzee at 46,362 sites, compared with designation as a Linnaean species or sub- from nearly two DNA fragments that an average of 22,012 sites for the other species, the team would later identify the cover any given nucleotide base in the two possible patterns, Yoruba and new humans simply as the “Denisovans.” genome—Pääbo first explored the new Denisovan or Yoruba and Neandertal. The child’s mitochondrial DNA hominin’s relationship to both Nean der - The team’s conclusion: “The Denisova (mtDNA) proved exceptional, diverg- tals and modern humans. individual and Neandertals share a ing from that of modern humans and To that end, Pääbo estimated the di- common history since separating from Neandertals at 385 and 202 nucleotide vergence between the Denisovan and the ancestors of modern humans.” positions, respectively. Indeed, this pre- the human genome reference sequence So should the new humans be de- liminary study disclosed no sign of in- as a fraction of the divergence between fined geographically and morphologi- terbreeding. But Pääbo couldn’t rule it present-day H. sapiens and our last com- cally as Neandertals or as their sister out because both H. sapiens and Nean- mon ancestor with chimpanzees. The dertals had evidently inhabited the Denisovan separated 11.7 percent of the neighboring environs at the same time. way back. The point of digression for the In fact, humans had probably occupied Vindija Cave, Croatia Neandertal ge- the site beginning around 280,000 nome, by contrast, was 12.2 percent. years ago. Hypothesizing a closer relationship In any case, Pääbo’s soon-to-be-expanded squad immediately began working on the Denisovans’ unusually well-preserved nuclear genome. At about three billion letters long, the nuclear sequence promised a much more lucid account because it consisted of countless unlinked, neutrally evolving loci. The mitochondrial genome, by contrast, is inherited maternally as one unit without recombination and is subject to genetic drift. And so the latest, though certainly not the last, word on the Denisovans was published in Nature on December 23, 2010. In their genetic history of the new human specimen, Pääbo and Harvard Medical School geneticist David Reich Nature magazine led a veteran group of twenty-eight au- A researcher extracts DNA from a fossil. Inset: The mtDNA within this tooth, found in Denisova Cave, suggests thors from Germany, Spain, China, Rus- that Denisovans were distinct from both Neandertals and modern humans.

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group? Pääbo et al. evaluated more Ne- initially examined the relationship be- unaffected by the new humans. andertal sequences to find out. After tween the Denisovan sequence and the For now, the size and geographical comparing the Vindija genomes to genomes of 938 contemporary humans range of the Denisovan group must re - those of Neandertals from Russia, from 53 different populations. He found main unknown. Apparently, they made Spain, and Germany, they ascertained that with respect to Neander tals and no genetic contribution to either the that Neandertals descended from a Deniso vans, “the Melanesian popula- Han Chinese or the Mongolians—two common population that experienced a tions stand out” compared to other non- populations currently residing much drastic genetic bottleneck since diverg- African populations. closer to the Altai Mountains than the ing from the ancestors of the Deni- Following up, Pääbo compared the Melanesians, who lived a full 10,000 sovans. Thus, the authors resolved, “Ne- Denisovan genome with those of twelve kilometers away. So, whatever the Deni - sovans’ numbers at the time of admixture, they likely left their genetic mark somewhere far south of Denisova Cave. The tooth found in Denisova Cave One wonders as well why we haven’t discovered additional Denisovan re- also tended to confirm that Denisovans mains. It may be that other fossils have been misclassified. Some specimens were distinct from both Neandertals from China, for example, resemble nei- and modern humans. ther modern humans, Neander tals, nor H. erectus. And even the Denisovan finger bone was originally thought to belong to a modern human. We should remember too that H. floresiensis wasn’t andertals across a broad geographical globally diverse persons, including ad- discovered until 2004. Only time will range have a population history distinct ditional sequences from Mela nesian tell, of course, as the search for more from that of the Denisova individual.” Papua New Guinea and Bougainville fossils continues. The tooth found in Denisova Cave Island. In sum, the authors revealed the Perhaps most rousing of all is the re- also tended to confirm that Denisovans truly shocking news that “4.8 +/- 0.5% alization that some of us carry more ar- were distinct from both Neandertals and of the genomes of Melanesians derive modern humans. For one thing, analysis from Denisovans,” and, considering chaic DNA than others. Some might of the tooth’s mtDNA verified that it Pääbo’s previous study of the Neander - argue that DNA retained for almost likely belonged to an individual from the tal sequence as well, that “altogether, as 50,000 years must confer a substantial same population as the finger. For an- much as 7.4 +/- 0.8% of the genomes of advantage or at least serve some practi- other, its shape was odd, to say the Mela nesians may thus derive from re- cal purpose. Accomplished paleogeneti- least—of ample proportions overall, with cent admixture with archaic hominins.” cists like Pääbo hope to provide answers short but robustly flaring roots. The most plausible explanatory to these questions and others in the If the tooth is a third molar, its size model for these landmark data, accord- very near future. is consistent with Australopithecine ing to the Reich-Pääbo team, posits the Whatever the outcomes, as the sci- samples and falls outside the range of Denisovans as an archaic population ge- entific picture grows ever clearer, the normal variation in all known fossil netically distinct from all others rest of us will no doubt be forced to specimens of the genus Homo, save known—including their sister group, cope with new realities, including un- Homo habilis and Homo rudolfensis. If it the Neandertals, with whom they split expected forms of genetic diversity and is a second molar, it is larger than Ne- more than 200,000 years ago while in- increasingly vague conceptions of what andertal and early modern human sam- habiting the expansive Eurasian land- it means to be human. n ples and comparable to those from mass. The former migrated generally Homo erectus and H. habilis specimens. eastward as the latter broke for the west. References Although confident, Pääbo could not, As our direct ancestors departed Green, R.E., J. Krause, A.W. Briggs, et al. 2010. of course, completely rule out the pos- from Africa, they interbred first with A draft sequence of the Neandertal genome. sibility that the tooth’s primitive mor- Neandertals and, shortly thereafter, Science 328: 710–22. Krause, J., Q. Fu, J.M. Good, et al. 2010. The phology resulted from a reversion. with Denisovans. But Denisovans complete mitochondrial DNA genome of an Finally, the team broached the al- probably mixed with modern humans unknown hominin from southern Siberia. ways-provocative question of gene only as their numbers expanded along Nature 464: 894–97. flow—whether the new hominins might Asia’s southern coastal areas and into Reich, D., R.E. Green, M. Kircher, et al. 2010. Genetic history of an archaic hominin group be more closely related to some present- Oceania. Evidently, the ancestors of from Denisova Cave in Siberia. Nature 468, day populations than to others. Pääbo other non-African populations were 1053–60.

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[ SKEPTICAL INQUIREE BENJAMIN RADFORD Benjamin Radford is a research fellow at the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and author or co-author of five books, including Scientific Paranormal Investigation: How to Solve Unexplained Mysteries.

Anomaly Hunting

It seems that paranormal investigation often involves people searching for unusual or possibly paranormal events. Does anomaly hunting play : a role in legitimate science? Consider an astronomy grad student looking for odd phenomena to study for his or her thesis. Q —R. Esau

Your question is a good which is then closely analyzed. Anomaly reers sampling soils around the world one, and it is especially hunting reverses this process, essentially looking for anything unusual, and epi- relevant to ghost investi- putting the investigator in the position demiologists don’t randomly screen the gations. Ghost hunters of accepting possibly spurious new public hoping to find some unknown often search for spirits by claims, at least as the starting point of in- disease. Instead, they encounter anom- walking around a sup- vestigation. I discussed this topic in my alies in the course of their ordinary work posedly haunted location recent article “Ghost-Hunting Mis- and are usually easily able to distinguish for hours and setting up tests (or “trig- takes” (SI, November/December 2010). them as such. For example, conjoined ger items”), waiting for anything they It’s the classic paranormal fallacy of twins are an anomaly, but it would be consider unusual to happen. arguing from ignorance (or personal in - pointless for a researcher to spend his or Most amateur ghost-hunting groups credulity): “I don’t understand X, there- her time visiting hospitals around the (influenced by television shows like fore it’s an anomaly.” We see this in world looking for them; instead, the Ghost Hunters and Ghost Adven tures) everything from UFO reports to ghost anomaly will appear and then be inves- focus on anomaly hunting and mistake and Bigfoot sightings, whereby people tigated. it for investigation. Historically, writer experience something they believe is Furthermore, if the grad student in Charles Fort perhaps best personifies weird and assume it’s paranormal (or at your example did want to scan the skies anomaly hunting, doing little or no ac- least an anomaly). In science, if what looking for some new phenomenon, he tual investigation but instead scouring you’re observing contradicts known or she would presumably know what to published clippings for anomalies and facts or the accepted body of knowl- look for, that is, what characteristics strange accounts. But reports of anom- edge, the first assumption should be would make something he or she de - alies, absent rigorous investigation, are that the experiment (or the assump- tected novel or strange. Scientists, un like merely anecdotes and are not proof of tions behind it) might be flawed in ghost hunters, have an idea of how to the paranormal. some way—not that you have discov- identify a true anomaly. Scien tists edu- Anomaly hunting is a very poor in- ered some new phenomenon. cate themselves with reliable knowledge vestigation technique; it is not particu- What about anomaly hunting in sci- about the characteristics of what they’re larly useful in solving mysteries and is in ence? The example you provide, of a studying; ghost hunters cannot. Alleged fact usually counterproductive. That’s grad-student astronomer searching the ghostly phenomena are very poorly de- because scientific paranormal investiga- heavens for something new, is an inter- fined and include an im possibly wide va- tion begins with a specific claim (e.g., “A esting one. Scientists, as a rule, do not riety of “signs,” including cold, heat, ghost in my house throws plates at me” spend their time searching for anom- noise, silence, fear, and so on (Radford or “My Elvis statue is weeping blood”), alies. Geologists don’t spend their ca- 2010).

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To see the problem that anomaly There’s much more hunting poses, consider the following example: A college student reads that water freezes at thirty-two degrees Fahren heit. Skep ti cal In quir er Being a naturally skeptical and inquisitive content available on our website! fellow, he decides to try it for himself. He fills a cup with water and puts it, along Here’s just a sample of what you’ll find: with a thermometer, in a freezer and sets the freezer’s temperature. The next day he Sidestepping the Litigious Consumer opens the freezer door and finds that the Read Gretchen McCormack’s analysis of the toning shoe market. water is very cold but not frozen. This in- Can special shoes really provide “weight loss, firmer muscles, reduced formation—this anomaly—contradicts cellulite, improved circulation, and improved posture”? We're skeptical. widely accepted knowledge about the freezing temperature of water. The ther- Homeopathic Flu Remedies Learn more about the efforts by the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and the Center for Inquiry to stop Walmart’s irresponsible marketing But before he corrects and promotion of Boiron Oscillococcinum, an ineffective Wikipedia and sends homeopathic “flu medicine.” an e-mail to the Nobel Committee notifying them of his breakthrough, he should read the fine print for a better understanding of what he was looking for. For more online columns, features, and special content, visit www.csicop.org. mometer reads below thirty-two degrees, yet the water is not frozen. Science was wrong! But before he corrects Wikipedia and mained unfrozen at thirty-two degrees ferent if at least some characteristics of sends an e-mail to the Nobel Committee is not anomalous. What he perceives as ghosts had been scientifically estab- notifying them of his breakthrough, he an anomaly is in fact nothing of the lished, as this would provide some basis should read the fine print for a better un- sort. The error is not with accepted sci- for characterizing a given phenomenon derstanding of what he was looking for. Pure water freezes at thirty-two degrees ence but with his procedures and/or as either within normal variation or as Fahren heit at sea level. If the water was understanding of the phenomenon. anomalous. But there’s little if any sci- not pure, the thermometer was not exact Ghost hunters often go through an entific or investigative rationale for enough for scientific purposes, the ex- identical process: not understanding anomaly hunting. n periment was not conducted at sea level, what they are looking for and mistaking Reference or if there was a bit of oil or another con- normal variations in a room’s tempera- taminant in the cup—or if any number ture, ambient sounds, electromagnetic Radford, Benjamin. 2010. Scientific Paranormal Investigation: How to Solve Unexplained Mys- of other factors he didn’t think of were fields, or other measures for mysterious teries. Albuquerque, New Mexico: Rhom bus at play—then the fact that his sample re- anomalies. The situation might be dif- Publishing.

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A Skeptical Look at a Remarkable Case Report of ‘Overnight’ Amnesia Extraordinary Symptoms, Weak Evidence, and a Breakdown in Peer Review

A peer-reviewed article reporting a bizarre and previously unknown form of amnesia imparts valuable scientific lessons: poorly documented case reports can confuse as well as enlighten, and we should be skeptical of clinical claims modeled after Hollywood plots. It also reminds us why scientific journals need to allow for the self-correction of questionable claims.

HARALD MERCKELBACH, THOMAS MERTEN, AND SCOTT O. LILIENFELD

a “blank slate” when she awakens each ell-documented case reports have substantial value. morning. The investigators noted that As Davison and Lazarus (2007) note, case reports can FL’s symptoms mimicked the scenario of the 2004 romantic comedy raise useful questions about theories, provide prelim- 50 First W Dates, in which one of the characters, inary data to be tested in more rigorous investigations, and Lucy (portrayed by Drew Barry more), “permit the investigation, although poorly controlled, of rare suffers from overnight amnesia following a car accident. but important phenomena” (157). Soon after the publication of Smith et al.’s case study, a number of websites Nevertheless, case reports of novel lished in Neuro psychologia, one of the rushed to publicize it. The website Neuro - clinical phenomena have their limita- world’s premier outlets for neuropsycho- critic noted that Holly wood has a long tions, especially when presented with- logical articles. and checkered history of presenting out adequate documentation. As Loftus cases of amnesia that bear no resem- The Apparent Discovery of and Guyer (2002) observed in an article blance to reality, but “that isn’t true any- a Remarkable New Form of Amnesia in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, case stud- more.” The British Psycho logical Soci- ies “illuminate, but can also obscure the Smith and colleagues (2010) described ety’s Research Digest reported that truth. In many cases, they are limited by an extraordinary and unique constella- “psychologists have documented what what their reporter sees, and what their tion of memory aberrations. Their pa- they believe to be a clinical first—the reporter leaves out. . . . To the scientist, tient—a fifty-one-year-old woman re- case of an amnesic woman whose therefore, most case studies are useful ferred to as “FL”—was involved in a car memory for new material is erased each largely to generate hypotheses to be accident in 2005, during which she night that she goes to sleep.” What is tested, not as answers to questions” (26). briefly lost consciousness. FL reported notable about these and other web re- To illustrate the problems of poorly that since then she accumulates mem- ports is that they were virtually all of- documented case reports, we analyze a ories continually during the day but fered without even a hint of skepticism. recent report by Smith et al. (2010) of a then loses all of them after one night of In turn, these uncritical descriptions purportedly new and exceedingly strange sleep. That is, she experiences overnight were picked up verbatim by numerous memory disorder. This case was pub- amnesia, so she must start afresh with other websites.

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The Limitations of Still other information provided by feigning or a lack of motivation to re- Smith et al.’s Case Report the authors is uninformative. For exam- member new material (see Carone et al. As we will see, all of these reports neg- ple, the fact that the patient failed to re- 2010). In their case description, Smith lected to mention a crucial fact: the cover memories of the time after the and colleagues dismissed the possibility Smith et al. case report was marked by accident while under hypnosis (2834) of feigning by arguing that “it was the three major limitations. does not offer evidence that such mem- impression of those who worked with ories were inaccessible to her. Hypnosis, FL that she believed that she had the Limitation #1: Lack of Crucial despite popular misconception, is not a memory impairment that she de- Back ground Information dependable technique for recovering scribed” (Smith et al. 2010, 2839). Yet The level of detail regarding FL’s case de- lost memories (Lynn et al. 2003). this reassurance is unsatisfying because scription is unsatisfactory. The authors Smith et al. mentioned in passing subjective clinical impressions alone are inform us that despite FL’s severe mem- FL’s involvement with the legal system known to be grossly insufficient for de- ory impairments, “she was able to return following her accident. Nevertheless, tecting the feigning of disorders (Rosen to her previous employment after some they do not provide adequate details and Phillips 2004). accommodations were made at work” concerning this involvement. For exam- Smith et al. administered several (Smith et al. 2010, 2834). It is difficult to ple, did FL file a personal-injury claim? memory tests to FL as well as to healthy participants who were in structed to sim- ulate overnight amnesia. In many respects, the performances of the simula- tors paralleled that of FL, which should give us pause when interpreting the claim that her amnesia is genuine. The authors also administered several memory tasks that involved tests of learned materials following a delay of twenty- four hours. When they tested FL’s delayed memory covertly—in a way that was not transparent to her—there were clear indications that despite her purported memory difficulties, FL could re- produce material that was presented on the previous day. This performance pattern flies in the face of the overnight amnesia syndrome attributed to FL. Columbia Pictures/Michaels, Darren/Album/Newscom Columbia 50 First Dates depicts a case of “overnight” amnesia that has no basis in science. To their credit, Smith et al. did ad - imagine any job in which recollection of Research shows that a litigation context minister Warrington’s (1984) “Recog - all information gained after a specific is associated with symptom exaggeration nition Memory Test for Words and date (in this case, after FL’s car accident) and misrepresentation (Faust 1996; Faces” to FL. She obtained a score of 41 is inessential. Furthermore, the article Tolin et al. 2004). Indeed, Iverson (2005) on the immediate recognition test; suffers from a striking paucity of infor- found that patients involved in litigation using a cutoff score ascertained in a re- mation about FL’s work accommoda- display substantially lower neuropsycho- cent study (Kim et al. 2010), this low tions: did they involve lessened respon- logical performance (that is, lower scores score provides preliminary evidence sibility, fewer working hours, longer on standardized measures of memory, that FL exerted low levels of effort on breaks, more assistance, and so on? If so, attention, and problem-solving) than the neuropsychological tests she was such privileges might constitute an im- comparable patients who are not. This administered. Nevertheless, the authors portant motive for feigning memory im- pattern suggests that their scores on of her case description apparently over- pairments. neuropsychological tests may partly re- looked this worrisome indication. As appropriately skeptical readers, we flect attempts to persuade others (such Limitation #3: Lack of Connectivity need to know to what extent FL’s as attorneys and jurors) that they deserve with the Scientific Literature overnight amnesia adversely affects her financial compensation. everyday functioning. Nevertheless, Absence of connectivity (Stanovich Limitation #2: Failure to Exclude Smith and colleagues apparently did not 2009), a key indicator of questionable Feigning or Inadequate Motivation attempt to contact co-workers or friends science, occurs when investigators neglect to confirm that FL’s presumed memory A second limitation of Smith et al.’s the existing corpus of scientific knowl- loss has affected her daily behaviors. case report is their failure to rule out edge. Indeed, from both scientific and

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theoretical perspectives, Smith et al.’s This belief, in turn, may explain the par- other paranormal abilities. Ironically, case description is puzzling. There is no adox of FL’s reporting that she loses all Baxendale singled out 50 First Dates as known mechanism whereby memories of her memories overnight co-existing an especially egregious example of Hol- can be acquired during the course of a with her ability to retain the previous lywood’s unscientific portrayal of mem- day only to be wiped clean after a night’s day’s knowledge when demon strated on ory loss, observing that this film “main- sleep. Moreover, an abundance of litera- covert testing. tains a venerable movie tradition of ture demonstrates that certain sleep This analysis is logically confused. portraying an amnesic syndrome that stages promote memory consolidation, The term amnesia indicates a condition bears no relation to any known neuro- whereas sleep deprivation impedes it that can be objectively documented logical or psychiatric condition” (Bax- (Walker and Van der Helm 2009). Yet and goes beyond a mere belief patients endale 2004, 1480). Smith et al. inform readers that following hold about their memories (see Read a sleep-deprivation protocol, FL’s am- and Lindsay 2000). If FL only believes Avoiding Erroneous Conclusions nesic deficit somehow disappeared and that she suffers from a memory impair- in Case Reports: Thinking Bayesian that “her husband reported that she ment, and her memory actually func- Truzzi’s (1976, 1978) and Sagan’s awakens 3.5 h into each night’s sleep and tions largely within the normal range, (1995) maxim that extraordinary claims has been able to retain her memory for her condition would more accurately require extraordinary evidence makes successive days with this regimen” (Smith be described as pseudo-amnesia, not good sense from a Bayesian standpoint, et al. 2010, 2834). amnesia. a statistical and conceptual approach The authors’ sleep-deprivation protocol could have afforded them a powerful tool to falsify their hypothesis. What would have happened if the treatment team allowed FL to sleep for only If FL only believes that she three-and-a-half hours or less but in- formed her that she had slept for six suffers from a memory impair- hours or more? If FL had continued to claim a lack of memories despite sleep- ment, and her memory actually ing for only three-and-a-half hours or less, this finding would have pointed functions largely within the strongly in the direction of a persistent belief in amnesia in its absence or feign- normal range, her condition ing amnesia rather than amnesia per se. would more accurately be Hollywood and Amnesia described as pseudo-amnesia, As we have already noted, FL’s memory loss is suspiciously similar to that of not amnesia. Drew Barrymore’s character in the film 50 First Dates. Interestingly, FL saw the movie several times after her accident, and she reported that Drew Barrymore was her favorite actress. Smith et al. ac- Baxendale (2004) noted that the that takes a priori plausibility into ac- knowledged that FL’s multiple viewings overwhelming majority of films that count when evaluating the likelihood of of the film may well have shaped her portray amnesia do so in a grossly inac- claims. The base rate (prevalence) of ex- beliefs about memory and, in turn, her curate fashion—with the 2000 film traordinary phenomena is by definition amnesic symptoms. In the authors’ Memento being a noteworthy exception extremely low (Atwood 2008; Good- words: “The idea that memories can (see also Lilienfeld et al. 2010). For ex- man 1999). If a memory disorder like disappear overnight became popular- ample, many films depict people with overnight amnesia exists, its prevalence ized by a fictional film and may have amnesia following brain trauma as hav- is surely tiny relative to that of feigning, influenced FL’s concept of how mem- ing no recollection whatsoever of their especially when real-world privileges or ory could fail after a car accident” identity or past, when in fact such com- judicial outcomes are potentially at stake. (Smith et al. 2010, 2839). plete loss is exceedingly rare. Other As a consequence, the evidence needed Thus, according to Smith and col- films erroneously depict people who to conclude that such a syndrome is leagues, FL’s amnesia may reflect her be- develop amnesia as acquiring remark- present should be overwhelming. As lief that a person can lose all newly ac- able—even superhuman—powers, in- medical students learn, “When you hear quired memories after a night of sleep. cluding extrasensory perception and hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras,” an

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admonition to “think Bayesian” when able, it is at the very least incumbent on that Sybil triggered the dramatic in crease evaluating the likelihood of diagnostic authors to be circumspect in their con- in DID cases, there are good circum- possibilities (Groopman 2007). clusions. stantial reasons to believe that the film Wedding and Faust (1989) advised played at least some causal role. For ex- neuropsychologists to “not become overly Lesson 2: Widely Viewed Television ample, prior to Sybil, remarkably few in- focused on the esoteric” (258) and noted Programs and Films May Influence the dividuals with DID reported a history of Presentation of Patients’ Symptoms that clinicians’ preoccupation with un- child abuse; following Sybil, the over- common features is an obstacle to sound Psychologists and psychiatrists have long whelming majority did (Spanos 1996). clinical judgment. In the case of FL, the recognized that certain disorders are Moreover, although most cases of DID scientific guideline of Occam’s razor partly iatrogenic in origin: that is, they prior to Sybil reported only one or two urges us to assign much higher probabil- can be inadvertently induced by well- alter personalities, the mean number of DID cases in post-Sybil reports was much higher—in one study it was sixteen, precisely the number reported by Sybil (Ross et al. 1989). Clinicians who work with individu- If the existence of an entirely als who report disturbances in memory and identity must therefore be cog- new form of amnesia in [FL’s] nizant of the possibility that their pa- case were to be confirmed, tients’ symptoms can be shaped by Hol- lywood depictions (Baxendale 2004). it would not only herald the Because many of these portrayals are wildly inaccurate from a scientific discovery of a new disorder standpoint, clinicians may be duped into accepting telegenically induced but challenge existing models symptoms—which are merely modeled after Hollywood depictions—as reflect- of memory loss. ing entirely “new” disorders.

Lesson 3: Permit Researchers to Submit Critiques of Case Reports in the Peer-Reviewed Literature ity to alternative explanations for her am- meaning, but mistaken, psychological or Editors and reviewers play crucial gate- nesia than to overnight amnesia. medical treatment (Lilienfeld 2007). The keeper roles in evaluating whether case case of FL reminds us, however, that in reports of patients displaying spectacular Three Scientific Lessons Imparted today’s media-driven world, some disor- by the Smith et al. Case Report symptoms 1) provide sufficient detail, 2) ders may be what we term telegenic in rule out alternative explanations, 3) build Lesson 1: Welcome the Publication of origin: induced at least partly by televi- on existing scientific findings and theo- Case Reports, but Insist on Adequate sion, films, and news and entertainment ries, and 4) refrain from launching pre- Docu men tation media. mature diagnostic entities. Never theless, The case report of FL is certainly in- Dissociative identity disorder (DID), if journal editors elect to accept case re- triguing. If the existence of an entirely formerly called multiple personality dis- ports even when they are suboptimal in new form of amnesia in her case were order, is a likely case in point of a one or more of these respects, they must to be confirmed, it would not only her- telegenic disorder (see Byrne 2001). at the very least afford critics the oppor- ald the discovery of a new disorder but Prior to 1970, there were fewer than 80 tunity to articulate the shortcomings of challenge existing models of memory such cases reported in the world litera- those reports. loss. Nevertheless, it is difficult to justify ture. Nevertheless, following the 1976 Remarkably, the journal that pub- the publication of Smith et al.’s report made-for-television film Sybil that star - lished the Smith et al. case, Neuro - in its present form given the absence of red Sally Field, who portrayed a real-life psychologia, does not accept commen- crucial details and failure to rule out woman with a history of severe child taries on its case reports (or other plausible rival hypotheses for FL’s abuse who supposedly possessed sixteen empirical articles) and refused to even symptoms. As a general rule, journals personalities (but see Rieber et al. 2002 consider a rebuttal of Smith et al.’s case should insist on high standards of ob- for data calling the Sybil case into ques- report for publication. Compounding the jective documentation when publishing tion), the number of DID cases skyrock- problem, several other journals (perhaps case reports of rare or unusual phenom- eted into the thousands (Boor 1982). understandably) refused to consider pub- ena. If such documentation is unavail- Although this finding does not prove lishing a commentary on the Smith et al.

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case report on the grounds that it had ap- Baxendale, Sallie. 2004. Memories aren’t made of tress and the Homeless 11: 355–60. this: Amnesia at the movies. British Medical Rosen, Gerald M., and W.R. Phillips. 2004. A peared in a different journal. Journal 329: 1480–83. cautionary lesson from simulated patients. Neuropsychologia’s misguided edito- Beyerstein, Barry L. Distinguishing Science from Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry Pseudoscience. 1995. Victoria, British Colum- and Law 32: 132–33. rial policy deprives science of one of its bia: Centre for Curriculum and Professional Ross, Colin A., G. Ron Norton, and Kay A. most valuable safeguards: self-correc- Development. Wozney. 1989. Multiple personality disorder: tion (see Beyerstein 1995). When jour- Boor, Myron. 1982. The multiple personality dis- An analysis of 236 cases. Canadian Journal of order epidemic: Additional cases and infer- Psychiatry 34: 413–18. nals do not allow authors to submit cri- ences regarding diagnosis, etiology, dynamics, Sagan, Carl. 1995. The Demon-Haunted World: tiques of case reports, they short-circuit and treatment. Journal of Nervous and Mental Science As a Candle in the Dark. New York: Disease 170: 302–304. Random House. the essential role of the peer scientific Byrne, Peter B. 2001. The butler(s) did it: Disso- Smith, C.N., J.C. Frascino, D.L. Kripke, et al. community in scrutinizing remarkable ciative identity disorder in cinema. Journal of 2010. Losing memories overnight: A unique Medical Ethics: Medical Humanities 27: 26–29. form of human amnesia. Neuropsychologia 48: claims. In turn, they may permit ques- Carone, Dominic A., Grant L. Iverson, and 2833–40. tionable information to make its way Shane S. Bush. 2010. A model to approaching Spanos, Nicholas. 1996. Multiple Identities and and providing feedback to patients re garding False Memories: A Sociocognitive Perspective. into the peer-reviewed and popular lit- invalid test performance in clinical neuropsy- Washington, DC: American Psychological eratures, allowing dubious conclusions chological evaluations. The Clinical Neuropsy- Asso ciation. to be disseminated with minimal qual- chologist 24: 759–78. Stanovich, Keith. 2009. How to Think Straight Davison, Gerald C., and Arnold Lazarus. 2007. about Psychology (8th edition). Boston: Pear - ification. The result, we suspect, is often Clinical case studies are important in the sci- son. little more than scientific obfuscation. ence and practice of psychotherapy. In S.O. Tolin, David F., N. Maltby, F.W. Weathers, et al. Lilienfeld and W.T. O’Donohue. (Eds.), The 2004. The use of the MMPI-2 Infrequency– Great Ideas of Clinical Science: 17 Principles Psychopathology scale in the assessment of Postscript: Another Case of Telegenic That Every Mental Health Professional Should post-traumatic stress disorder in male veter- Amnestic Syndrome? Understand (pp. 149–62). New York: Rout - ans. Journal of Psychopathology and Behavioral ledge. Assessment 6: 23–29. Soon after we completed the initial Goodman, Steven N. 1999. Toward evidence- Truzzi, Marcello. 1976. Editorial. The Zetetic based medical statistics: 2. The Bayes Factor. (SKEPTICAL INQUIRER) 1(1): 2–6. draft of this article, co-author Thomas Annals of Internal Medicine 130: 1005–13. ———. 1978. On the extraordinary: An attempt Merten saw a patient in a hospital’s Faust, David. 1996. Assessment of brain injuries at clarification. Zetetic Scholar 1: 11. in legal cases: Neuropsychological and neu- Walker, Matthew P., and Els van der Helm. 2009. neurology ward: a twenty-three-year- ropsychiatric considerations. In B.S. Fogel, Overnight therapy? The role of sleep in emo- old male found by his girlfriend in the R.B. Schiffer, and S.M. Rao (Eds.), Neuro - tional brain processing. Psychological Bulletin 135: 731–48. bathroom following a brief period of psychiatry (973-90). Baltimore: Williams and Wilkins. Warrington, Elizabeth K. 1984. Recognition reported unconsciousness the previous Groopman, Jerome. 2007. How Doctors Think. Memory Test. Windsor, United Kingdom: week. He claimed not to recognize her Boston: Houghton-Mifflin. FER-Nelson. Iverson, Grant L. 2005. Outcome from mild trau- Wedding, Daniel, and David Faust. 1989. Clinical or anyone else and to have no recollec- matic brain injury. Current Opinion in Psychi- judgment and decision making in neuropsy- tion of his identity. Oddly, he exhibited atry 18: 301–17. chology. Archives of Clinical Neuro psychology 4: Kim, Michelle S., Kyle B. Boone, Tara Victor, et 233–65. neither signs of marked brain damage al. 2010. The Warrington Recognition Mem- on neuroimaging nor any neurological ory Test for words as a measure of re sponse bias: Total score and response time cutoffs de- or neuropsychological symptoms on veloped on “real world” credible and noncred- standardized testing. Yet the man re- ible subjects. Archives of Clinical Neuropsychol- Harald Merckelbach ported that he had lost all memories, ogy 25: 60–70. is in the Faculty of Lilienfeld, Scott O. 2007. Psychological treat- Psychology and Neuro- plus all of his learned abilities, such as ments that cause harm. Perspectives on science, Maastricht knowing how to open a can. At the Psychological Science 2: 53–70. ———. 2010. Can psychology become a science? University, the Nether- conclusion of the interview, he reported Personality and Individual Differences 49: 281– lands. that during his previous weekend at 88. Lilienfeld, Scott O., Steven J. Lynn, John Ruscio, home he had watched the movie 50 and Barry L. Beyerstein. 2010. 50 Great First Dates with his girlfriend. She in- Myths of Popular Psychology: Shattering Wide - Thomas Merten is in formed him they had seen it several spread Misconceptions about Human Behavior. the Department of Neu- Malden, MA: Wiley. rology, Klinikum im times in the past, but he claimed to Loftus, Elizabeth F., and Melvin J. Guyer. 2002. Friedrichshain, Berlin, have no memory of it. Who abused Jane Doe? The hazards of the single case history: Part I. SKEPTICAL IN- Germany. If our speculations about “telegenic QUIRER 26(3) (May/June): 24–32. amnestic syndrome” are correct, this Lynn, Steven J., Timothy Lock, Elizabeth F. Lof- tus et al. 2003. The remembrance of things postscript may end up being merely the past: Problematic memory recovery tech- pilot episode of a host of others to fol- niques in psychotherapy. In S.O. Lilien feld, S.J. Lynn, and J.M. Lohr. (Eds.). low. As they say in the television world, Science and Scott O. Lilienfeld is in Pseudoscience in Clinical Psychology (205–39). the Department of Psy- stay tuned. n New York: Guilford. Read, J. Donald, and D. Stephen Lindsay. 2000. chology, Emory Univer- References “Amnesia” for summer camps and high school sity, Atlanta (e-mail: graduation: Memory work increases reports [email protected]). Atwood, Kimball. 2008. Prior probability: The of prior periods of remembering less. Journal dirty little secret of ‘evidence-based alterna- of Traumatic Stress 13: 129–47. tive medicine.’ Science-Based Medicine blog, Rieber, Robert, Harold Takooshian, and Hum- (February 15). Available online at www.sci- berto Iglesias. 2002. The case of Sybil in the encebasedmedicine.org/?p=48. teaching of psychology. Journal of Social Dis-

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Power Lines and Cancer, Distant Healing and Health Care Magnetism Misrepresented and Misunderstood

The 1990s fear that background magnetic fields—hundreds of times weaker than Earth’s magnetic field—could cause cancer has been replaced. Twenty years later, advertisements by licensed hospitals claim that humans can be trained to emit and manipulate these same energies to initiate healing.

EUGENIE V. MIELCZAREK and DEREK C. ARAUJO 1

nowicz also appeared on the website of n the early 1990s, the New Yorker magazine published chiropractor Lynn Karew, who prac- three articles by Paul Brodeur describing claims that tices in Santa Monica, California: “We background radiation from nearby power lines caused see that human touch has the capacity I to affect even cell growth and thereby an outbreak of leukemia in children living in Denver, has a real healing potential. ... The Colorado (Brodeur 1990a, 1990b, 1992). findings also give hope to many patients who suffer from abnormal cell In 2008, the Journal of Orthopaedic which the experiments were conducted growth—in particular cancer patients. Research published a claim that thera- was shielded from background electro- By and large, energy medicine treat- peutic touch2 (TT) practitioners at the magnetic radiation. ments, in particular therapeutic touch University of Connecticut Health Cen- Both claims concerning the effects (TT), promise significant benefits for ter were able to diminish the growth of of low-level magnetic fields were widely our bodies” (Karew, n.d.). human osteosarcoma (cancer) cells by influential. Brodeur’s publications pro- In a July 2008 interview, using their hands to manipulate energy voked a widespread fear of living near Hartford fields surrounding the cells ( Jhaveri et power lines, which became such a pow- Courant reporter Hilary Waldman asked al. 2008). The cell cultures over which erful urban legend that in 1991 Con- Gronowicz, “Should somebody with os- the practitioners’ hands were placed were gress asked the National Academy of teoporosis or a broken leg go to their located in L-shaped rooms, implying Sciences (NAS) to prepare a report on Reiki practitioner?” Gronowicz replied, that some undefined radiation pattern the issue. Possible Health Effects of Ex- “We don’t know” (Waldman 2008). would not turn corners. That paper’s cor- posure to Residential Electric and Mag- “Harmful” Magnetic Fields responding author is Gloria Grono wicz, netic Fields was published by the NAS’s professor of surgery at the Uni versity of Committee on the Possible Effects of By the early 1990s, the international Con necticut Health Care Center. Electromagnetic Fields on Biologic community’s panicked reaction to al- Ironically, the reasoning behind both Systems et al. in 1997. leged harmful fields emanating from of these claims was based on the pres- Eleven years later, Jhaveri and co- power lines reached such frenzied pro- ence of a magnetic field of about two workers’ Journal of Orthopaedic Research portions that some communities sued to milligauss. The source of the “harmful” article concluded with the statement have power companies shield the lines two-milligauss field that allegedly that “therapeutic touch … increased the and bury them (Thomley 1998; Hafe- caused the leukemia outbreak in Col- growth of normal bone cells in culture meister 1996; Committee et al. 1997). orado was background radiation from dishes, but decreased the growth of Opportu nistic vendors peddled moni- power lines (Hafemeister 1996; Bro - bone cancer cells” (2008). References to tors of outdoor radiation exposure to deur 1993). The “healing” field emitted the paper and quotes from it appeared worried citizens, and “some city regula- from the hands of humans at the Uni- on the websites of wellness clinics of- tions sought to constrain B fields [i.e., versity of Connecticut was also alleged fering services in distant healing (also magnetic fields] to less than 2 milli- to be about two milligauss. But there called TT, Reiki, or qigong). Refer ences gauss” (Hafe meister 1996). was no indication that the building in to this and other publications by Gro - Yet scientific studies repeatedly de -

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monstrated that concerns about the must arise from fields that are many or- Theory,” in the Journal of the Bio- effect of extremely weak magnetic fields ders of magnitude larger than even the Electro-Magnetics Institute (BEMI). Re- on human biology are un founded. The fields used in MRI imaging.” Table 1 peated attempts to locate this paper and final NAS report examining the poten- compares the energies of the magnetic the journal in which it appeared, how- tial health hazards of power lines pre- fields produced by a variety of sources, ever, have proved futile.3 sented a comprehensive study of the including Earth’s magnetic field, fields Although citations of the Zimmer - alleged dangers. Sup porting docu men - occurring in the background environ- man paper appear in a number of arti- tation about background radiation from ment, and fields produced by magnetic cles on distant healing, the paper itself power lines included measurements by resonance imaging (MRI) equipment. appears to have vanished. Gronowicz’s engineers, calculations by scientists, and The allegedly harmful fields produced ( Jhaveri et al. 2008) re search had been a critique of epidemiological claims. by power lines are multiple orders of funded by the National Institutes of After a detailed examination of the evi- magnitude weaker than each of these Health’s (NIH) National Center for dence, the NAS concluded that there is fields. Complementary and Alternative Medi - no credible basis for believing that two- Thus, the NAS report ruled out car- cine (NCCAM). It was therefore un- milligauss fields are biologically harmful. cinogenic effects of living under power surprising that the Zimmerman paper The report’s findings were grounded lines because thermal-noise fields are was also cited on the NCCAM infor- in multiple sources of corroborative evi- far larger than the background fields mational website in their overview on dence. In addition to a lack of confidence from power lines. No adverse health ef- energy medicine. Librarians at neither in the epidemiological studies, the notion fects could be attributed to these low- George Mason University nor the NIH, that two-milligauss fields are harmful to level fields. Any biological mechanisms however, were able to locate the journal. cellular biology contradicts the most fun- that would initiate cancer must start at A web search for its author, John Zim- damental laws of physics, including the second law of thermodynamics—from which one calculates the thermal-noise Table 1. Comparison of Energies Associated with the Living State level of a cell—and the laws that govern our understanding and use of electro- Thermal noise level A human cell 1 kT* magnetic radiation. Based on these laws, Light A photon of green light 120 kT detailed calculations of the effect of ex- Biochemistry Oxidation of a glucose molecule 1,159 kT tremely low-level magnetic fields on human cells were published in a series of Alleged “healing” magnetic field 2 milligauss at molecular scale 10-15 kT articles by Robert Adair (Adair 1991, 1992, 1998) and William Bennett (Ben- *1 kT = Boltzmann’s constant × nominal body temperature = 0.025 electron volt (eV) nett 1994). The calculations demon - strated that any impact of such low-level fields would be trivial in comparison to the cellular level, and these mechanisms merman, a sleep psychologist, led to the the effects of background fields that nat- can operate only within the laws of reference “Earthing and Earth Fx Prod- urally occur within human cells. For ex- physics. The politically driven fears of ucts: A Summary of Research and ample: imagine yourself, reduced to the carcinogenic mechanisms arising from Develop ment 2/10/06” and a citation of size of a molecule, sitting inside a cell. low-level magnetic fields lost all scien- an article published in the Brain/Mind Here you will view electric charges col- tific credibility. Bulletin on September 30, 1985 (volume liding with molecules, creating fluctua- 10, issue 2). The Earth Fx Products web- tions in the electric field. These fluctua- “Healing” Magnetic Fields sites (Earthing 2006a, 2006b) advertise tions will produce thermal noise with the In contrast to the New Yorker articles a “research company focused on the de- energy of about eight orders of magni- that instigated fears about harmful velopment of the health sciences and tude, 108, greater than the energy associ- magnetic fields, corresponding author products for biological grounding.” ated with the external background elec- Gronowicz’s (Jhaveri et al. 2008) re- The librarians’ quest was fruitless in tric field. search on the alleged healing fields pro- finding the BEMI journal, but it turned The NAS report concluded that duced by TT practitioners appeared to up a footnote in the January 1997 Jour- there are no accepted theoretical mech- build upon previous scientific studies. nal of Bodywork and Movement Thera- anisms for affecting biological processes Gronowicz’s research citations for heal- pies that directed readers to contact operating at magnetic fields of such a ing fields rest on a paper by John Zim- Zimmerman directly for his article on low level. “Thus even the most subtle of merman (1999), “Laying-on-of-Hands TT. It appears Zimmer man’s paper was any field driven biological processes and Therapeutic Touch: A Test able privately published but somehow found

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its way into citations within complemen- formed above the patient’s body that “Healing” Magnets Meet the NIH tary and alternative medicine (CAM) supposedly release positive healing en- As the debate over the harmful effects journals. In an effort to locate Zimmer- ergy. A video showing these motions of the magnetic fields surrounding mann, one of this article’s authors (Eu- being used in the emergency room of power lines was winding down, science genie Mielczarek) contacted Zimmer- the University of Maryland Baltimore reporters at major newspapers (Brody mann’s colleagues at his last professional Shock Trauma Center can be seen on 2000) were popularizing claims—of address, but they were not able to con- the web (Donnell 2010). physicians writing in the medical liter- firm his whereabouts. Curiously, “negative energy” is never ature—of magnetic relief of joint pain The legend of the salubrious effects defined, leaving unanswered the ques- and neurologic symptoms (Vallbonna of biomagnetic fields finds its source in tion, “What happens if the proscribed and Richards 1999). Small 300-gauss Dolores Krieger, a nurse who was in- liturgy for healing is not followed or er- magnets began to appear on the shelves spired by a nun who claimed that her rors are made?” Jack Hitt, a journalist of drug stores. Mattress pads equipped healing properties depended on manip- writing in the New York Times Maga- with magnets were being marketed. A ulating the energy field surrounding the zine (2009), partly answered this ques- grant awarded by NCCAM resulted in body with a set of specialized hand tion. Hitt describes the distant-healing a publication in a CAM journal touting movements (Kreiger 1975). This en- culture in Serbia. Serbian protocol for the benefits of healing magnets (Alfano ergy field arises from natural processes distant healing can include props, such et al. 2001). The study of the power such as blood flow and electrical activ- as antennas that can allegedly be tuned lines was forgotten; magically, the low- ity of the heart, and it measures about to help or harm at social distances. At field magnets were marketed as cura- 0.004 milligauss (Hobbie and Roth least within the Serbian distant-healing tive. Purveyors of the products advertise 2007). A field of this strength is incred- culture, then, it is thought that the al- on the web to this day. ibly weak: three orders of magnitude legedly healing magnetic field may also Some purveyors’ rationales for the less than background radiation, four or- be used to cause harm. magnetic-therapy claims were ludi- ders of magnitude less than environ- The scientific community has paid crous. Eugenie Mielczarek, one of the mental background radiation, and an scant attention to Krieger’s claims. She authors of this article, attended one incredible eight orders of magnitude was awarded an Ig Nobel Prize (the sales pitch in which the sellers claimed less than Earth’s magnetic field (see quasi-parody award) in 1998 (Improb- their mattress magnets were superior table 2). able Research, n.d.). Until publication because they incorporated only north Krieger’s sensational claim was am- in the Journal of Ortho paedic Research, a poles. Sadly, during this time, friends plified by the nursing community after peer-reviewed medical journal, claims who were recovering from breast cancer she described touch as the “imprimatur for the success of this protocol were consulted her—hoping for confirma- of nursing” in her original article on TT limited to CAM journals. Thus, claims tion that their magnetic bracelets (Krieger 1975). In the American nurs- for distant healing initiated by fields would relieve the buildup of postoper- ing community, distant-healing proto- emitted from the hands of TT practi- ative fluid in their breasts and under- cols such as TT, Reiki, and qigong are tioners largely flew under the radar of arms. Mielczarek’s podiatrist seriously based on a set of hand motions per- the physics community. asked her if wearing magnetic shoe inserts would improve his golf game, and a friend with diabetes attended a hos- Table 2. Common Magnetic-Field Values pital clinic in Pennsylvania at which a purveyor of healing magnets was a Field generated by human body 0.004 (range) milligauss* speaker. In 2007, a lawsuit against ad- Alleged harmful fields produced by power lines 2–4 milligauss vertisers of these products, brought by the National Council Against Health Alleged healing field produced by TT practitioners 2–4 milligauss Fraud, was successfully settled. Miel- Environmental background 20–1,000 milligauss czarek was one of the persons who Human walking in Earth’s magnetic field 40 milligauss agreed to appear as an expert witness if needed. The Federal Trade Com - Earth’s magnetic field 500 milligauss mission also threatened to prosecute Commercial alleged “healing” magnets 300,000 milligauss purveyors who claimed healthful ben- MRI medical image 200,000,000 milligauss efits of these products. The NIH’s NCCAM lends a false *One milligauss equals one thousandth of a gauss. air of respectability to CAM protocols. MRI, magnetic resonance imaging; TT, therapeutic touch. NCCAM’s influence has penetrated

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the medical education system, lending to 5,000 gauss. Sadly and frustratingly, CAM, Harkin helped dramatically in- false respectability to “integrative med- the publications and well-established crease NCCAM’s annual budget (At- icine” courses in medical curricula and conclusions of scientists are ignored. wood 2003), which now stands at a programs at hospitals and clinics at es- Is this true ignorance or mere pre- staggering $128.8 million. Most re- teemed medical institutions.4 Donald tense? Does the glaring omission of a cently, Senator Harkin secured still Marcus and Laurence McCullough large body of highly relevant scientific more government funding perpetuating (2009), professors of bioethics and information reflect true ignorance on CAM by introducing language in health medicine at Baylor College of Med - the part of the NIH, or does it reflect care reform legislation requiring insur- icine, evaluated the CAM education the political influence of alternative- ers to cover any state-licensed health grants awarded by the NIH to schools medicine purveyors and their allies, care providers—including CAM prac- of medicine. They concluded that “these . . . curricula . . . fail to meet the generally accepted standards of evidence-based medicine. By tolerating this situation, health professions Mielczarek’s podiatrist seriously schools are not meeting their educational and ethical obligations to learn- asked her if wearing magnetic shoe ers, patients, or society” (Marcus and inserts would improve his golf game, McCullough 2009). In addition, NCCAM’s promotion of and a friend with diabetes attended a questionable CAM extends beyond the medical community to the public at hospital clinic in Pennsylvania at large. NCCAM maintains a website which a purveyor of healing magnets meant to inform the public about the validity of CAM treatments. The website was a speaker. leaves the mistaken impression that biochemistry and biological physics are un- developed fields of inquiry. Mislead ing qualifiers are used to maintain a false level of uncertainty regarding the legiti- who seek to maintain government titioners. A version of Senator Harkin’s macy of disproven treatments and tech- funding for mythological, non-science- provision prohibiting “discrimination” niques. For example, the NCCAM web- based protocols through NCCAM? against any state-licensed practitioners site tutorial “Magnets for Pain” survived in the Patient Protection and (NCCAM, n.d.) states that “mecha- The Future of U.S. Medicine Affordable Health Care Act (2010) that nisms by which magnets might affect If it is true ignorance that drives President Obama signed into law on the human body are not yet known”; NCCAM’s disregard for relevant scien- March 23, 2010. “scientific researchers and magnet man- tific research, then our medical structure If the scientific and fiscal integrity ufacturers propose that magnets might is in serious disarray. If the director of of our health care system is to be sal- work by . . . changing nerve cell func- the NIH and the secretary of Health vaged, this ill-advised course must be tions, balanc[ing] cell death and growth, and Human Services cannot recognize reversed. Federal funding of NCCAM increas[ing] blood flow and delivery of this ignorance, the foundations of the and of CAM practitioners under the oxygen, and increas[ing] the temperature nation’s health care system and its fiscal health care reform act should be redi- of the body.” Nowhere in NCCAM’s integrity are under threat. Over the past rected toward proven and effective (n.d.) “Backgrounder: Reiki; An Intro- decade, the U.S. government has wasted medical treatments and techniques. duction” tutorial is there any mention of billions of dollars examining non-evi- State governments face an urgent chal- the scientific calculations that settled the dence-based treatments that have no lenge in attempting to make quality controversy over “damaging” magnetic grounding in the scientific method or in health care available to those who need fields emitted from power lines. Nor is our understanding of basic scientific it, while simultaneously reining in the there any mention that the chemical re- facts. The rise in government spending ballooning cost of medical care. To actions responsible for these changes in on junk medical science was largely squander our scarce resources on al- nerve-cell functions, balances in cell pop- brought about through the efforts of leged treatments that have no basis in ulations, and increases in blood flow can- Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa. As the scientific knowledge or experience is an not be initiated by magnetic fields of 300 Senate’s most devoted champion of act of gross irresponsibility. Our politi-

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cal leaders owe it to the scientific com- ———. 1992. Reply to “Comment on ‘Con - native-medicine. Accessed August 4, 2010. straints on biological effected weak ex tremely- Krieger, Dolores. 1975. Therapeutic touch: The munity, to health care consumers, and low-frequency electromagnetic fields.’” Physical imprimatur of nursing. The American Journal to taxpayers to ensure that all govern- Review A 46: 2185–87. of Nursing 75(5): 784–87. ment-funded health care is grounded in ———. 1998. Comment on “Extremely low fre- Marcus, Donald, and Laurence McCullough. quency electromagnetic fields do not interact 2009. An evaluation of the evidence in ‘evi- science-based medical treatment. n directly with DNA.” Bioelectromagnetics 19(2): dence-based’ integrative medicine programs. 136–37. Academic Medicine 84(9): 1229–34. Acknowledgements Alfano, Alan P., Ann Gill Taylor, Pamela A. NCCAM (National Center for Complementary Foresman, et al. 2001. Static magnetic fields and Altern ative Medicine). n.d. Backgrounder: The authors wish to acknowledge the excel- for treatment of fibromyalgia: A randomized Reiki; An introduction. Available online at lent help from librarians, students, and fac- controlled trial. The Journal of Alternative and http://nccam.nih.gov/health/reiki. Accessed ulty at George Mason University. However, Complementary Medicine 7(1): 53-64. Novem ber 29, 2010. the views expressed here are solely those of the Atwood, Kimball. 2003. The ongoing problem ———. n.d. Get the facts: Magnets for pain. Avail- authors. with the national center for complementary able online at http://nccam.nih.gov/health/ma and alternative medicine. SKEPTICAL IN - gnet/magnetsforpain.htm. Ac cessed July 6, QUIRER 27(5) (September/October): 23–29. 2010. Notes Available online at www.csicop.org/si/show/ Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act: Pub. 1. Recent publications relating to this subject by ongoing_problem_with_the_national_center/. L. 111-148, 124 Stat. 119 Sec 2706. March 23, 2010. the authors include: Accessed on February 5, 2010. Bennett, William R. 1994. Cancer and power Thomley, Patsy W. 1998. EMF at home: The Na- Eugenie Mielczarek. 2010. Magnetic fields, lines. Physics Today 47(4): 23–29 tional Research Council reports on the health health care, alternative medicine and physics. Brodeur, Paul. 1990a. Annals of radiation: The effects of electric and magnetic fields. Florida Forum on Physics and Society Newsletter (April). calamity on Meadow Street. The New Yorker State University Journal of Land Use and Envi- Available online at www.aps.org/units/fps/ ( July 9). ronmental Law. Available online at www.law.f newsletters/201004/index.cfm. ———. 1990b. Department of amplification. su.edu/journals/landuse/Vol132/Thom.htm. Eugenie Mielczarek and Derek Araujo. 2009. A The New Yorker (November 19). Vallbonna, C., and T. Richards. 1999. Evolution fracture in our health care: Paying for non- ———. 1992. Annals of radiation: The cancer at of magnetic therapy from alternative to tra- evidence based medicine (September 28). Avail - Slater School. The New Yorker (December 7). ditional medicine. Physical Medicine and Re- able online at www.centerforinquiry.net/uploads/ ———. 1993. The Great Power-line Cover-Up. habilitation Clinics of North America 10(3): attachments/A_Fracture_in_our_Health_Care New York: Little, Brown and Co. 729–54. Paying_for_Non-Evidence_Based_Medicine. Brody, Jane E. 2000. Less pain: Is it in the magnets Waldman, Hilary. 2008. The right touch: A hint pdf. or the mind? New York Times (November 28). of hands-on healing. Hartford Courant ( July Eugenie Mielczarek. Fields, alternative medi- Committee on the Possible Effects of Electro- 28). Available online at http://articles. cine and physics. Available online at www. magnetic Fields on Biologic Systems, et al. courant.com/2008-07-28/news/healing- sciencebasedmedicine.org/?cat=11. 1997. Possible Health Effects of Exposure to Res- touch0728.art_1_healing-touch-therapeutic- idential Electric and Magnetic Fields. Washing- touch-therapies. 2. Previous articles examining TT include: ton, DC: National Academy Press. Zimmerman, John. 1999. Laying-on-of-hands Robert Glickman and Ed J. Gracely. 1998. Donnell, R.W. 2010. Reiki at Baltimore trauma and therapeutic touch: A testable theory. Therapeutic touch: Investigation of a practi- center (January 29). Available online at BEMI Currents, Journal of the Bio-Electro- tioner. The Scientific Review of Alternative Med- http://doctorrw.blogspot.com/2010/01/reiki- Magnetics Institute 2: 8–17. (As listed in icine 2(1): 43–47. at-baltimore-shock-trauma-center_356. Jhaveri et al. 2008). html. Accessed January 29,2010. Bela Scheiber. 1997. Therapeutic touch: Eval- uating the ‘growing body of evidence’ claim. The Earthing and EarthFx Products. 2006a. Available Scientific Review of Alternative Medicine 1(1): online at www.earthfx.net. Accessed October 13–15. 2009. Eugenie V. Mielczarek ———. 2006b. Earthing and EarthFx products: is emeritus professor George Ulett. 1997. Therapeutic touch: Tracing A summary of research and development back to Mesmer. The Scientific Review of Al tern - (February 10). Available online at www.equi- of physics at George ative Medicine 1(1): 16–18. libra.uk.com/summaryofearthingbenefits.pdf. Mason University. Her 3. In private communication with Harriet Hall, Accessed August 4, 2010. publications include MD, (Hall 2009), the authors discovered that Hafemeister, David W. 1996. Resource letter Iron, Nature’s Univer- BELFEF-1: Biological effects of low-fre- Hall’s similar efforts to locate the BEMI paper by sal Element (Rutgers Zimmermann also failed. quency electromagnetic fields. American Jour- nal of Physics 64(8): 974–81. University Press, 4. Examples of institutions that give false re - Hall, Harriet. 2009. Private communication (Sep- 2000). In 2009, she spectability to integrative medicine courses: tember 7). Hitt, Jack. 2009. Radovan Karadzic’s new-age ad- was recognized by the Washington Acad- Brigham and Women’s Hospital (affiliated with emy of Sciences for distinguished research Harvard University). www.brighamandwomens. venture. New York Times Magazine ( July 26): org/Departments_and_Services/medicine/ 24. in biological physics. Services/oshercenter Hobbie, Russell K., and Bradley J. Roth. 2007. Intermediate Physics for Medicine and Biology, Cleveland Clinic Wellness Institute. http://my. 4th ed. New York: Springer, 2007. Derek C. Araujo is vice clevelandclinic.org/departments/integrative Improbable Research. n.d. Winners of the Ig Nobel president and general medicine/default.aspx Prize. Available online at http://improbable. counsel of the Center Scripps Institute. www.scripps.org/services/ com/ig/ig-pastwinners.html#ig1998FN. Ac - integrative-medicine cessed August 5, 2010. for Inquiry and director University of Michigan. http://www.med. Jhaveri, Ankur, Stephen J. Walsh, Gloria Grono - of CFI’s legal pro- umich.edu/umim wicz, et al. 2008. Therapeutic touch affects grams. He holds an DNA synthesis and mineralization of human osteoblasts in culture. Journal of Orthopaedic AB in physics from References Research 26(11): 1541–46. Harvard College and Adair, Robert K. 1991. Constraints on biological Kerew, Lynn. n.d. Local doctor points to new find- a JD from Harvard effects of weak extremely-low-frequency elec- ings in alternative medicine. Available at Law School. tromagnetic fields. Physical Review A 43: http://lynnkerewchiropractic.com/blog/ 1039–48. local-doctor-points-to-new-findings-in-alter-

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Slaying the Vampire Solving the Chupacabra Mystery

The mysterious vampire beast el chupacabra is said to have terrorized people around the world since at least 1995. A five-year skeptical investigation reveals the surprising origin of this monster, finding that there’s more to this vampire than meets the eye.

BENJAMIN RADFORD

approximately four-feet tall that had igfoot, the mysterious creature said to roam the thin arms and legs with three fingers or North American wilderness, is named after what it toes at the end of each (Corrales 1997). leaves behind: big footprints. Bigfoot’s Hispanic It had no ears or nose but instead two B small airholes and long spikes down its cousin, el chupacabra, is also known for what it leaves behind: back (see figure 1). When the beast was dead animals mysteriously drained of blood. Goats are said later reported in other countries, it took to be its favorite prey (chupacabra means goat sucker in Span- on a very different form (see figure 2). A few were found dead (for example, in ish), and it is the world’s third best-known mystery creature Nicaragua and Texas), and the carcasses (after Bigfoot and the Loch Ness monster). turned out to be small four-legged animals from the Canidae family (such as El chupacabra first appeared in 1995 mense confusion and contradiction” dogs and coyotes). after Madelyne Tolentino, an eyewit- surrounding el chupacabra, making it The next step was identifying and ness in Puerto Rico, provided a detailed “almost impossible to distinguish fact analyzing the central claims about el description of the bloodsucker. It had a from fiction, and reality from hearsay chupacabra: Where did el chupacabra heyday of about five years, during and local lore” about the creature. Hav- originate, and why did it suddenly ap- which sightings were widely reported ing done many cryptozoological inves- pear in 1995? Why was the original in Mexico, Chile, Nicaragua, Spain, Ar- tigations—both alone and with CSI Puerto Rican chupacabra sighting so gentina, and Florida, among other Senior Research Fellow Joe Nickell different from the later canid chu- places. By 2002 el chupacabra was (himself author of the new book Track- pacabras? And what killed the victims known worldwide. As one writer noted, ing the Man-Beasts)—I took Shuker’s of the suspected chupacabra attacks? “Not since the advent of crop circles has statement as a challenge to see if I could Over the course of about five years of a strange phenomenon been so quickly be the first to definitively solve the chu- research I answered most of these ques- assimilated into popular culture…. pacabra mystery. tions. For example, the question of what Chupacabras is now equal to the Loch mysteriously drained the blood from Ness monster or Bigfoot as a cultural The Investigation Begins livestock was answered decades ago in icon” (“Chupacabras” 2002). The first step was finding out what, ex- the context of cattle mutilations (in fact Though el chupacabra is well known, actly, people believed el chupacabra to be. in the pages of SKEPTICAL INQUIRER; it has been the subject of little serious Tolentino said the beast she saw had see, for example, Stewart 1977). The or skeptical investigation. Researcher dark eyes that went up the temples and processes of natural body decay and or- Karl Shuker (2009) lamented the “im- spread around the sides; it was a biped dinary predation can mimic mysterious

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“vampiric” blood loss and mutilation to blood loss is impossible to verify without nesses saw wildly different things and the untrained ob server’s eye. Further - conducting a professional necropsy (confusingly) referred to all of them as el more, very few of the “completely blood- (Geberth 1996, Cunliffe 2009). chupacabra. Recognizing that the goat- less” chupacabra victims had actually been Through researching original sources sucker has a strong cultural aspect (for examined. I consulted forensic and vet- and accounts it also became clear why example, it is almost exclusively seen in erinary resources and interviewed a the Puerto Rican chupacabra was so dif- Spanish-speaking countries and re - forensic pathologist who confirmed that ferent from later incarnations: eyewit- gions), I researched Latin America’s Hispanic and Puerto Rican vampire folklore. This helped me understand the cultural background and social environment from which el chupacabra emerged. By paying close attention to news stories about the monster, I was able to track down each new sighting and re - port on it immediately after it occurred. In the case of the most famous beast, the “Cuero chupacabra,” I flew to San Antonio, Texas, for the television show MonsterQuest to examine the beast. I spent about a week interviewing the chupacabra’s owner, Phylis Canion, and examining the carcass (see figure 3). In 2008 I also conducted a field ex- pedition in search of el chupacabra in the jungles of Nicaragua, near the San Juan river on the border of Costa Rica (see figure 5). Two colleagues and I searched the remote rainforest for several days Figure 1. In Latin America, el chupacabra is thought to be a biped with long spikes down its back. and hired an expert tracker to seek any evidence of the beast (for more, see Radford 2010).

The Missing Piece of the Puzzle By 2009 I had answered nearly all of the central questions about el chupacabra. But one key mystery remained: Why did the goat sucker suddenly appear in 1995? No other animals in the world are claimed to have so recently (and spon- taneously) appeared; even Bigfoot and Nessie are claimed to have existed since long ago (though evidence for this is dubious; see Radford and Nickell 2007). Real creatures simply do not ap pear out of thin air. The monster’s origin had been an im- penetrable mystery for nearly fifteen years; I felt that without answering this question I’d never be able to put forth a complete explanation. I traveled to Puer - to Rico and interviewed Madelyne To- Figure 2. A second type of chupacabra in canid form, reported mostly in Texas since the mid-2000s. This animal lentino, whose de scription of el chu- was found in Blanco, Texas. Photo by Jerry Ayer. pacabra is the most important on record,

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not only because of its remarkable detail certainly possible; other monster eye- similarities, including the large, oblong but also because it is the “original” eye- witnesses have described “real-life” head; large, wraparound eye shape; black witness description upon which most monsters that they actually saw in films or red eyes; small or nonexistent nose; images of the creature are based. I inter- (see, for example, Loxton 2009). the absence of ears; the bipedal stance; viewed her (and her ex-husband) at I reviewed Tolentino’s description long, thin arms; long, thin legs; thin, length, and she showed me where her and compared it to the Species alien, clawed fingers; small, lipless mouth; sighting occurred. identifying over a dozen morphological large spikes down the spine; lack of tail; Tolentino claims to have seen the creature near the street outside her house in rural Puerto Rico during the second week of August 1995 (see figure 6). Her account appears in Scott Cor - rales’s book Chupacabras and Other Mysteries (Corrales 1997), and it’s clear that her story is riddled with im - plausible observations, contradictions, and inconsistencies. This revelation spelled real trouble for el chupacabra. If Tolentino’s account, arguably the most important eyewitness ac count, is not credible, her description—and much of the information that followed it—is ir- refutably tainted. Whether or not el chupacabra is entirely a product of culture can be de - bated, but the monster’s strong pop-culture element is undeniable. I searched for Figure 3. Texas rancher Phylis Canion displays the famous “Cuero Chupacabra” she found near her ranch in 2007. something—anything—that might have Photo by the author. appeared in Puerto Rico around the time of the first el chupacabra sighting that might explain its origin. I discovered that just before Tolentino’s re port, a new element was added to the island’s social and cultural mix—something that had not existed there before and could have credibly spawned el chupacabra sightings. The creature Tolen tino described seeing bears no resemblance to any known animal. It does, however, look almost exactly like a fictional creature seen by hundreds of thousands of people in 1995: Sil.

What Species Is el Chupacabra? Sil is the name of an alien creature played by Natasha Henstridge in the sci-fi horror film Species. Species was re - leased in Puerto Rico on July 7, 1995— just over a month before Tolen tino had her sighting. The creatures look very similar; could the original el chupacabra Figure 4. The original and best-known chupacabra image (left), based on eyewitness Madelyne Tolentino's 1995 eyewitness have simply described a account (drawing by the author from a sketch by Jorge Martin), bares an uncanny resemblance to the monster monster she had seen in a movie? It’s from the 1995 science-fiction/horror film Species (right).

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and so on. Indeed, the resemblance of Sil Sometimes truth is stranger than fic- eyewitness description—is in fact based to the Puerto Rican el chupacabra is un- tion, and sometimes fiction influences re- on a science-fiction film. El chupacabra’s mistakable (see figure 4). In fact, Tolen- ality. I discovered that the popular image origin had finally been revealed. tino herself said that “the resemblance of el chupacabra—the one appearing in This solves one of the highest-pro- [of Sil] to the chupacabra was really im- thousands of books and magazines and file “unexplained” mysteries of the past pressive” (Corrales 1997). on hundreds of websites as a credible two decades. One thing in my favor was the limited scope of evidence: because the entire mystery was only about fifteen years old, the number of claims, eyewitness reports, and news accounts to consider was manageable. The next step was completing the research and writing a book on it. (Tracking the Chupacabra: The Vampire Beast in Fact, Fiction, and Folklore was published in April by the University of New Mexico Press.) Of course, just be cause a mystery is solved doesn’t mean that everyone knows about it or that many people won’t think the mystery continues. The Ber - muda Triangle, for example, was essentially solved decades ago by researcher Larry Kusche, yet it remains in the public’s consciousness as mysterious and unexplained. The myth of el chupacabra will live on—though for skeptics and the Figure 5. The author with expert tracker Fernando Casanova searching for evidence of el chupacabra in Nicaragua’s open-minded public, surely this vampire Indio Maiz Wildlife refuge. Photo by Chris Ayles. has been slain. El chupacabra is dead; long live el chupacabra. n

References Chupacabras rides agains [sic] again. 2002. Fortean Times. April (156). Corrales, S. 1997. Chupacabras and Other Mys - teries. Greenleaf Publications. Cunliffe, C. 2009. Interview by the author, Octo - ber 27. Geberth, V. 1996. Practical Homicide Investi gation: Tactics, Procedures, and Forensic Tech niques, 3rd edition. New York: CRC Press. 216–22. Loxton, D. 2009. The shocking secret of Thetis Lake. Junior Skeptic. 35. Radford, B. 2010. Tracking the goat sucker. Fortean Times. January (257): 48–53. Radford, B., and J. Nickell. 2007. Lake Monster Mysteries: Investigating the World’s Most Elu- sive Creatures. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky. Shuker, K.P.N. 2009. The Unexplained. New York: Metro Books. Stewart, J. 1977. Cattle mutilations: An episode Figure 6. The street in Canovanas, Puerto Rico, where Madelyne Tolentino had the first—and most detailed— of collective delusion. The Zetetic (SKEPTICAL chupacabra sighting in history. Photo by the author. INQUIRER) 1(2) (Spring/Summer): 55–66.

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The Numerology of A Berlin biologist/physician and a psychology professor from Vienna found an increasingly inscrutable connection between the numbers 23 twenty-three and twenty-eight. They applied their system to explanations of nearly all events in life and nature—but it doesn’t quite add up.

MARK BENECKE

he number twenty-three may be well known to readers of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER for its supposed signifi- The German movie 23 (1998) cance, which originated with the term “23 skidoo” pop- revolves around the conspiracy T theories of Hagbard Celine (i.e., ularized in the early 1920s. Many uses of “23 skidoo” can be computer hacker Karl Koch found in newspapers as early as 1906, mostly as slang mean- [1965–1989]), who believed in ing “it’s time to leave while the getting is good.” In the Illu- the existence of the Illuminati minatus! Trilogy, written by Robert Shea and Robert Anton in today’s society, hacked for the KGB (among others), and (as Wilson, twenty-three is the number of misfortune and de- the official story goes) died by struction, as well as—of course—the alleged key to the Illu- burning himself to death. minati. Wilson describes how he came by his interest in the The German minimalist elec- number from author William Burroughs, who wrote a short tronic band Welle:Erdball, story in 1967 called “23 Skidoo”: which supposedly composes its music with the help of a Com- According to Burroughs, he had only in connection with conspiracies. modore-64 computer, devoted known a certain Captain Clark, Among other examples, one of their best-known songs, around 1960 in Tangier, who once “C=64/23,” to the conspiracy bragged that he had been sailing In the western comedy Support twenty-three years without an acci- theory connected with the num- dent. That very day, Clark’s ship had Your Local Gunfighter (1971), ber twenty-three: an accident that killed him and the hero re peatedly bets all his everybody else aboard. Furthermore, money on the number twenty- “Commodore 64, is that cor- while Bur roughs was thinking about three. He loses until at last he rect?” “Yes, 64.” this crude example of the irony of the actually breaks the bank, win- gods that evening, a bulletin on the “If one divides this by two?” radio announced the crash of an air- ning everything. “It’s . . . thirty-two.” liner in Florida. The pilot was another “And if one turns that around!?” captain Clark, and the flight was In 1980, industrial/avant-garde “Then it’s ... twenty-three!” Flight 23. Burroughs began collecting band Throbbing Gristle (Welle: Erdball 2000) odd 23s after this gruesome syn- recorded the song “The Old The significance of twenty-three chronicity, and after 1965 I also began Man Smiled,” which explicitly collecting them. (Wilson 1977) can be found in all kinds of imaginative references Burroughs’s “Captain In the course of the following number games, but the possibilities Clark,” “twenty-three days and decades, Shea and Wilson’s beautiful greatly increase if one combines it with twenty-three hours of the day,” fairytale about the secret—and yet so another number. I would like to intro- “Flight 23,” and so forth openly recognizable—number lastingly duce another dalliance with the number (Throbbing Gristle 1993). em bedded itself in popular culture, not twenty-three, because it is an impres-

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the assumed standard interval of twenty- eight days almost never oc curred. Be- cause Fliess was convinced that “a pulse courses through all of life,” he did not give up but was rather even more in- trigued. He calculated until he found that the deviations of the twenty-eight- day standard are related to another number, which renders them explain- able: twenty-three. Now Fliess scoured medical journals and personal accounts of friends and acquaintances for temporal recurrences and rhythms, which he found could always be mathematically described in conjunction with the numbers twenty- three and twenty-eight. He claimed that each and every repetitive growth or decay process in human, animal, and plant life was deconstructable and un- derstandable by means of the two num- Figure 1. Original front covers of the books of Wilhelm Fliess and Hans Schlieper (Fliess 1906; Schlieper 1929). bers. These events ranged from intervals between the births of one particular sive example of how easy it is to become rhythms subordinated to a greater one? mother’s children to the times of death obsessed with a supposition one is fond Does this all-encompassing rhythm ex- of family members. Fliess connected of, in light of perplexing yet only osten- plain growth and decay? everything with his mathematical dis- sible evidence. These questions were asked at the be- covery: the time when plants budded or Older skeptics will notice immedi- ginning of the twentieth century by the discarded their blossoms, the occur- ately that the two numbers discussed Berlin biologist and physician Wilhelm rence of hermaphroditic humans, the below are also the basis for the pseudo- Fliess, based on his observations of time at which children teethe, and even scientific concept of the biorhythm— nature. Fliess then became lost in the in- the personal histories of many genera- the idea that favorable, critical, and neg- creasingly inscrutable connections be- tions of a family. ative days in an individual’s life can be tween cause and effect of his math - A brief example illustrates his method: predicted through calculation (Gardner ematically correct but wrongly applied On four days of the year 1815, 1981). The calculation of biorhythm observations (Benecke 2002; Fliess namely on August 19th and 25th as (widespread in the 1970s but currently 1906). Herman Swoboda (1873–1963), well as on October 15th and 19th, less prominent) employs three numbers a psychology professor at the University Schubert composed an astonishing (seen here as measured “number of of Vienna, also claimed to have (indepen- amount and his best songs. The in- days”): twenty-three for the physical dently) found a natural biorhythm at the tervals between the days result in the following: rhythm, twenty-eight for the emotional same time, quite similar to Fliess’s (e.g., a rhythm, and thirty-three for the intel- spontaneous repetition of thoughts after 19 August to 19 October = 61 days = 2 times 28 plus (28 minus 23) lectual rhythm. Each rythm is said to set twenty-three hours and again after as well as out on its sinusoidal course starting at twenty-three days) (Swoboda 1904). 25 August to 15 October = 51 days = birth. This assumption, however, has According to his own report, Fliess 2 times 28 minus (28 minus 23). never been confirmed. found initial traces of the temporal (Fliess 1906) order of life in the biological fact that Only basic arithmetic operations and Rhythms of Life women usually ovulate every twenty- two numbers are necessary to correlate The underlying idea of biorhythm is eight days. He noticed this during the days of exceptional creativity. Truly as- not completely fallacious. The constant examination of a related issue: the “typ- tonishing! repetition of the seasons, as well as ical changes in sharply defined areas of Fliess documented the life cycles of many processes observed in the course the nose, the ‘genital parts of the nose,’ two amaryllis plants, which he ob served of a lifetime, gives the impression that which are located at the nasal concha for eight years, in much more detail. there are basic rhythms of nature in and the septum,” of women during One of the two plants was an offshoot which all cycles repeat. Blossoms open menstruation (Fliess 1906). of the other, so the plants were geneti- and close; animals migrate and come Fliess then asked his female patients cally identical. Fliess noted the times back. Is there a master clock that con- to record the exact dates of their men- when the plants budded, blossomed, ducts the life cycle? Are the small life strual bleeding. It became evident that and discarded their flowers. At first

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glance, there was no correlation among the numbers. Quite elegantly, Fliess then established a link with the help of an auxiliary number, as he spelled out the following equation: “The formation of buds from one year to the next is equal to the period between blossoming in the first year and blossoming in the second year plus four times 28 minus four times 23” (Fliess 1906). According to Fliess, even illness and death are subject to the numbers twenty- three and twenty-eight: “Of two times (23 plus 28) people who fall ill with St. Vitus’ dance, 28 are men. Little Wolfgang learned how to walk after twenty-four times 28 plus (28 squared) minus two times 28 times 23 days. He lived twenty- four times 23 plus (28 squared) minus (two times 23 squared) days” (Fliess 1906). Fliess also correctly calculated the Figure 2. Typical page from Fliess’s book: A person with diabetes suffers from an embolism and dies. All events ages of death of Goethe, Bismarck, can be expressed through rhythms that are composed of the numbers twenty-three and twenty-eight (Fliess 1906, 142). Kaiser Wilhelm, and Alexander von Humboldt, as well as those of many other celebrities of the time by combin- ing the numbers twenty-three and twenty-eight. How is this possible? Predictions A known death can only later The first indication of an error in Fliess’s arduous work appears if one tries to cal- be described by the two basic culate, in advance, the age at which a person will die. This calculation does not numbers; this is contrary to the work with biorhythms and number combinations. A known death can only scientific principle that one can later be described by the two basic numbers; this is contrary to the scientific predict future events (within the principle that one can predict future realms of the calculable) based events (within the realms of the calculable) based on a “natural law.” Thus, bio- on a “natural law.” rhythms as such cannot be a natural law, because they do not allow for predictions to be drawn from them. Another source of error in Fliess’s work is the fact that the numbers, which Fliess had found in works of other au- of flowering plants? Are these number “randomly” generated according to ar- thors, were not always correct. Con trary links also calculated artificially, or do bitrary rules (for example, by a computer to the above example, three times more they reflect an intrinsic property of na- program), many of these numbers will be women than men do not fall ill with St. ture? The answer is that even in the divisible by either twenty-three or Vitus’s dance (Hunting ton’s disease). If “real” cases, Fliess unwittingly suc- twenty-eight and can be matched with a Fliess was able to squeeze such false data cumbed to his basic assumption, which natural rhythm. As early as 1928, medical into his system, it is very likely that all he took for granted and therefore did doctor Jakob Aebly (1885–1934) from data can easily be incorporated into the not properly examine again (for exam- Zürich calculated that approximately biorhythm scheme. ple, by using other numbers or meth- every twelfth random number is a suit- How about calculations based on ods). If one examines any group of able “candidate” for division by either correct data, such as the budding times numbers, whether taken from nature or twenty-three or twenty-eight (Aebly

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physically!” (Schlieper 1929). Schlieper did not conceal that the wish was father to the thought in this case. From his point of view, however, his conclusions seemed to merely reflect his scientific curiosity, not his possible blindness to a false assumption: I never had doubts that, someday, one would be able to make visible the period values, and especially the space year, using living beings. In some cases, this rather unscientific wishful thinking bore rich fruit, for example in the event of Louis Pasteur’s first experiments regarding a rabies vaccination. He held tenaciously to his theory and asserted himself against the entire world. The periodicity theory, however, failed due to its circular thought. (Schlieper 1929)

Figure 3. While examining the mosaic on the armor of an armadillo, Schlieper noticed “structures, which imme- Rows, Roundels, and Rhythms diately meet the eye of the expert as infallibly true: Truly! There they were again, the intervals between the births of my own siblings, only transferred into space, represented physically!” (Schlieper 1929, 110). Unintentionally, natural science magazines like the German Bild der Wissen - schaft—which annually honors the best mathematical approaches to “calculat- 1928). Hans Schlieper, a follower of the ing” the current year solely with the help Because Fliess arbitrarily considers Fliessian periodicity theory, went even of the four numbers of which the year certain numbers as belonging together further than its creator. In 1929 he in - is made—provide elegant proof against (see the earlier example of Schubert’s vented another value, the “space year,” the periodicity theory. Readers connect songs), he artificially increases the to manipulate along with the numbers the four numbers of the year through probability of finding numbers that fit twenty-three and twenty-eight. This simple mathematical methods and cal- his rhythms. It is perfect circular rea- value not only enabled him to mathe- culate the respective year by playing sur- soning: Numbers belong together “be- matically recreate personal histories but prising games with numbers. If you look cause they simply belong together,” so also to mathematically represent the for it long enough, there will always be they are grouped together. The result is “regular” occurrence of certain dreams a meaning. But no one em braces the a rhythm that is assumed from the out- and the composition of living bodies: idea that the four digits of the year in set. Without it, the numbers would not I frequently dream of a walk through question must have magical or rhythmic have been combined and could not cre- the streets of Paris to the green of the properties, just because you can manip- ate a rhythm. Bois de Boulogne, and the recurrence ulate them mathematically to arrive at of the image made me want to write that respective year. Armadillo and Space Year down the dates. The first two inter- In short, a mathematically inclined vals already represent half the space So the rhythms derived from Fliess’s year with interconnection of the (and knowledgeable) person can connect numbers are artificial. No one has ever quadratic complex. The interval of 44 almost all numerical values to a rhythmic taken the trouble to recalculate the many days denotes a frequently occurring sequence, using similarly simple calcula- hundreds of pages of Fliessian examples circular bond (“Bindungsring”); the tions with some constant basic numbers; in a different manner or with out using interval of 139 days therefore is the or, they can simply transform and invent value of half a year, for which its form twenty-three and twenty-eight. In 1928, is correct. (Schlieper 1929) the sequence if necessary. Whether the however, Aebly showed that many bio- figures are “true” or “false” (i.e., whether rhythmic number games also work with While examining the mosaic on the they are obtained randomly or through a different set of numbers, for example armor of an armadillo, Schlieper noticed observation) is not important. Connec- with three and five. It nevertheless re- “structures, which immediately meet the tions can always be made, although with mains surprising that Fliess, with dogged eye of the expert as infallibly true: Truly! some combinations of numbers this is determination, succeeded in creating a There they were again, the intervals be- easier than with others. This strategy is view of the world that appeared correct tween the births of my own siblings, even simpler given the right amount of down to the last detail. only transferred into space, represented creativity for explaining exceptions to

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the rule by means of “circular bonds” and “excessive units,” which Schlieper invented to allow his calculations to work properly.

Conclusion The obituary that Hans Schlieper wrote for his teacher Wilhelm Fliess reads as follows: Wilhelm Fliess, born 24 October 1858, died shortly before his 70th birthday. For him too the year drew the line, the leap year, which had become a scientific experience for him through the births of his children: His son Robert, born 29 December 1895 1 1461 = 4 J His son Conrad, born 29 December 1899 8 10515 = 32J - 51 × 23 Wilhelm Fliess, died 13 October 1928 The values 1173 = 51 × 23 = 28 × 23 + 232 and 1428 = 51 × 28 = 23 × 28 + 282 are typical connection values. (Schlieper 1929) Reflecting on the dogged determination with which Fliess and Schlieper approached their subject, we might Figure 4. Development of a Limax snail, following an “independent” observation that Schlieper took from a book smile at this tragicomic swan song. But on snails. The footnote goes further, referring to Gregor Mendel’s (founder of classical genetics) original obser- Fliess would have probably considered vations: “Out of 15 plants, Mendel got 556 seeds. From those however only 529 [which equals] 232 did grow this epitaph appropriate. fruits. 27 seeds did not develop fully or at all, i.e., 282 / 2 –365 which is a pure bond” (Schlieper 1929, 309). Interest in the Fliessian doctrine of References Swoboda, Hermann. 1904. Die Perioden des Men- biorhythms, which at first glance ap - Aebly, Jakob. 1928. Die Fliess’sche Periodenlehre im schlichen Organismus in Ihrer Psycholo gischen pears to be built on a solid mathemati- Lichte der Biologischen und Mathematischen und Biologischen Bedeutung. (The Periods of the cal and empirical foundation, vanished Kritik. Ein Beitrag zur Geschichte der Zahlen - Human Organism in Their Psychological and mystik im 20 Jahrhundert (The Science of Peri- Biological Meaning). Leipzig and Vienna: mainly because it worked only in retro- Deuticke. spect: Everything can be linked to - odicity Checked against Mathematical and Bio- logical Criticism on Number Mythology in the Throbbing Gristle. 1993. “The Old Man Smiled” gether, but only after the fact; these 20th Century). Stuttgart, Leipzig and Zürich: (recorded November 1980). TG Box 1. Lon - connections are not predictable. Hippokrates-Verlag. don: The Grey Area/Mute Records Ltd. Welle:Erdball. 2000. “C=64/23.” Starfighter F- Nevertheless, these deliberations, Benecke, Mark. 2002. The Dream of Eternal Life: Biomedicine, Aging, and Immortality. New 104G. Han nover, Germany: SPV/Synthetic which only much later became known as York: Columbia University Press. Sym phony. biorhythms, contain a grain of truth: ob- Fliess, Wilhelm. 1906. Der Ablauf des Lebens: Wilson, Robert A. 1977. The 23 phenomenon. Fortean Times 23. Available online at www. viously there are other biological regular- Grundlegung zur exakten Biologie (The Course of Life: Basic Principles in Exact Biology). forteantimes.com/features/commentary/396/ ities, such as circadian rhythms (e.g., Leipzig & Vienna: Deuticke. the_23_phenomenon.html. Smith 1970; Hastings et al. 2003). Yet no Gardner, Martin. 1981. Fliess, Freud, and bio- one should prematurely laugh about the rhythm. In Science: Good, Bad and Bogus. works of Fliess and Schlieper, even if Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books, 131–40. Hastings, Michael, Akhilesh Reddy, and E.S. Mark Benecke, PhD, is a they are inaccurate. Even today it is often Maywood. 2003. A clockwork web: Circadian certified, sworn forensic timing in brain and periphery, in health and tricky—and unfortunately also tempt- biologist in Cologne, Ger- ing—for natural scientists and psychol- disease. Nature Reviews Neuroscience 4(8) (August) 649–61. many, and a member of ogists to draw strict conclusions about Schlieper, Hans. 1929. Das Raumjahr: Die Ord- the scientific advisory life and death from mathematical rela- nung des lebendigen Stoffes! (The Space Year: board of the German skep- tionships. This is particularly true if the Order of All Living Material) Jena, Ger many: tics organization GWUP. He Diederichs. earlier wrote for SI on spon- data sample—intentionally or uninten- Smith, Anthony. 1970. The Seasons: Rhythms of tionally—is small or has been preselected Life, Cycles of Change. London: Weidenfeld taneous human combustion and magnetic based on erroneous presuppositions. n and Nicolson. mountains. E-mail: [email protected].

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[FORUM

Three Types of Evidence Lacking for Paranormal Claims

JONATHAN C. SMITH

heory is a part of the never-ending debate on the para- tion. A skeptic might note that there is a difference between tolerance and par- normal. Must paranormal claims be held suspect in adigm revolution. Tthe absence of credible underlying theory? There is something interesting about Paranormal researchers protest that throughout history, this line of discussion. It quickly morphs into claims about observation and evi- observations have emerged for which we have no explana- dence. Indeed, perhaps this is where our tion. They often cite the contagious spread of disease, grav- focus should be directed. ity, and stellar combustion—all observations that were once A theory is more than an explanation; not grounded in accepted theory. Critics reply that indeed it is also a summary of observations concerning an observed phenomenon. On science is fueled by mysterious observations without close examination, three types of evidence are involved: explanation—anomalies that require a paradigm shift. However, typically these 1) Specific theory-based observations con- instances are dramatic and repeatedly cerning a concrete claim that is directly observed. There is no dispute that peo- a part of a theory. ple get sick, apples fall, and the sun 2) Implied observations not specifically Jonathan C. Smith is pro- shines. In contrast, positive paranormal predicted by a theory but nonetheless fessor of psychology at findings are very weak, at the very edge consistent with its basic assumptions; Chicago’s Roosevelt Uni- of significance, and not reliably repli- that is, they are necessary for the obser- versity (where he heads cated. Believers reply that a paranormal vations to work or permitted by the ob- the university’s Pseudo- effect may be very fleeting and subtle, a servations if they are indeed fact. Im- science and Paranormal pattern also not unknown in traditional Lab) and author of nine- plied observations are often not directly teen books. His most re- science. Consider the faint evidence for mentioned by researchers. However, cent text, Pseudoscience and Extraordinary exotic subatomic particles, black holes, they are assumed. Claims of the Paranormal: A Critical Thinker’s or claims that an extinct soft-shelled 3) Basic world-view observations concern Toolkit (Wiley-Blackwell, 2010), is rapidly turtle still lives. If we can tolerate the grounding view of the world re- emerging as a popular college textbook. E- decades of research on these topics, quired if the theory in question is valid. mail: [email protected]. His webpage: surely we can wait for evidence to fi- Once again, such observations are often www.lulu.com/stress. nally emerge for extrasensory percep- assumed without much note.

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If we wish to make a strong claim about into lizards eventually would have to is very weakly supported by our first type the nature of reality, the full spectrum of claim that fossils reveal the form and age of observation. However, ancillary evi- evidence must be considered. of ancient creatures, that the gene struc- dence is also lacking. State budgets To illustrate, the theory of evolution tures of fish and lizards determine their should be in crisis because of a horde of states that species evolve through natural living structures, and that the laws of lottery winners. At least a few slot ma- selection. The theory itself makes a num- cause and effect rule—as opposed to the chines should retroactively signal their ber of direct hypotheses, supported caprices of a currently popular deity. spin to gleeful gamblers. Fewer voyeurs through observation. For example, one Both believing and skeptical re - should be subject to arrest. Sales of should, and can, find “missing link” fos- searchers would likely agree that we pornography should drop. Finally, if Bem sils for species hypothesized to have evolved from each other (fish, walking fish, crawling land creatures). The genetic makeup of closely related species should be similar (humans and chimpanzees share up to 98 percent of their It would be a gross trivialization chromosomes). Birds confined to islands on which the primary source of food is of Bem’s work to assume that a nuts are more likely to develop tough precognitive peep-show should nut-cracking beaks, rather than pointed beaks good for fishing for worms. be the only manifestation of a Furthermore, the theory of evolution, if examined in detail, implies a number catastrophic rift in the space-time of other ancillary hypotheses outside the direct domain of evolution. For example, continuum. if evolution works, we can hypothesize that the actual living form and age of an organism can be determined from its fossil remains; the genetic makeup of an organism determines the organism’s form should accept a paranormal claim sup- has found something true about the uni- and structure; and tough, sharp, and hard ported by observational evidence. This verse, the laws of physics need not apply mouthparts are good for cracking open includes all the evidence; we can’t cherry- to all parts of our immediate world. sources of food (nuts, bones, dried meat). pick a tempting anecdotal re port or un- It would be a gross trivialization of Bem’s To the extent observations support these replicated finding of minimal signifi- work to assume that a precognitive peep- ancillary hypotheses, they also must be cance. All honest research ers, including show should be the only manifestation added to the underlying fabric of obser- those of the paranormal, must use the of a catastrophic rift in the space-time vational support for evolutionary theory. complete scorecard and consider direct continuum. At the very least, I would Finally, the theory of evolution is evidence of a paranormal claim, ancillary hope for some quantum evidence of based on a causal and materialistic view evidence, and observations of basic the gods of ancient Greece or the of the world. Natural selection works be- worldview ideas and assumptions. Flying Spa ghetti Monster (for an alter- cause objects can move, interact, and As readers of the SKEPTICAL IN- native ar gument, see venganza.org and cause movement among other objects. QUIRER recall, psychologist Daryl Bem Goo gle “God speaks! The Pasta farian The physics of fulcrum mechanics per- has claimed evidence that university stu- Quatrains”). mits small amounts of jaw force to crack dents can see into the future or that fu- In summary, a serious consideration tough shells. Such evidence for deep un- ture events can retroactively affect their of how theories work is not an abstract derlying theory can be added to our ob- choices (see James Alcock’s “Back from academic exercise. Such effort directs servational matrix. the Future: Parapsy chology and the Bem our attention to the types of observa- So, a scientist who claims that Affair” in the March/April 2011 issue of tional evidence required for a credible through natural selection fish evolved SI). As ex tensively re ported, Bem’s claim paranormal claim. n

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[REVIEWS Two Views of the War on Cancer

HARRIET HALL

he pink ribbon is a widely recognized Pink Ribbon Blues: How Breast Cancer Tsymbol of the war on breast cancer. Culture Undermines Women’s Health Pink-ribbon culture has turned breast By Gayle Sulik. Oxford University Press, New York, 2010. cancer into a consumer item: you can ISBN: 0199740453. 424 pp. Hardcover, $29.95. buy branded products or wear the brand logo. You can laugh for the cure, buy shoes for the cure, even test drive a BMW for the cure. You can feel good about yourself be cause you think you are supporting efforts that will end breast cancer. The reality is more complex, as The Emperor of All Maladies: A Biography of Cancer Gayle Sulik explains in her new book, By Siddhartha Mukherjee. Scribner, New York, 2010. Pink Ribbon Blues: How Breast Cancer ISBN: 978-1-4391-0795-9. 571 pp. Hardcover, $30. Culture Under mines Women’s Health. Pink-ribbon culture has been instru- mental in raising awareness of breast cancer, making it acceptable to talk about it and providing support to victims; but it’s not all good. The culture guilty for not conforming to pink-rib- to research on effective prevention and exaggerates the benefits of mammogra- bon ideals of heroism and optimism. treatment. phy, supports an industry that makes The tyranny of pink-ribbon culture has These issues are worth thinking huge profits, and promotes an image of usurped the voices of many diagnosed about, but Sulik’s book is repetitive and the “shero” survivor that doesn’t fit the women who don’t conform to its takes an interminable 379 pages to de- experience of many women. stereotypes. Perhaps because the bene- liver its message. I was bored and had “Mammography saves lives,” the slo- fits of mammography screening have to force myself to finish reading it. gan goes. Yes, but far fewer than most been exaggerated, research into possible Sulik concentrates on social issues, but people believe. For every 2,000 women environmental causes of cancer has I thought her understanding of the sci- who are screened for ten years, ten will lagged. Corporations have arguably ben- ence behind cancer research and treat- be treated unnecessarily and only one efited more than patients; they are mak- ment was incomplete and her expecta- will have her life prolonged. The coning big bucks from mammography tions for a victory in the war against cept of carcinoma in situ is being reeval- equipment, pharmaceuticals, and other cancer were simplistic and unrealistic. uated: it is not really cancer but only a products. Women’s issues and consum - * * * risk factor for subsequent development erism cloud clear thinking. of cancer. Many women have undergone Sulik says that “fighting the good While I was reading Sulik’s book, I hap- surgery and chemotherapy for a lesion fight” has taken precedence over win- pened upon a book that is far more that would never have caused them any ning the war. She questions the value of worthwhile and better written: The Em - harm. And the radiation from mammog- a pink-ribbon culture that limits how peror of All Maladies: A Biogra phy of Can- raphy has the potential to cause a few we talk and think about breast cancer; cer by Siddhartha Muk herjee, a cancer other cancers. disempowers, demeans, and objectifies physician and re searcher. It is a history of Mixed metaphors about “war” and women; and engages in fear-mongering cancer that explains how science gradu- “femininity” have re-framed our think- that leads to overdiagnosis and over - ally came to understand some of cancer’s ing about the fight against breast can- treatment. She suggests taking a road realities, reveals cutting-edge knowledge, cer. Women have been made to feel less pink and rethinking our approach and discusses ex citing new directions in

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NEW BOOKS]

research. It is also a riveting read with a exaggerations of normal processes es- Listing does not preclude future review. plot like a detective story and entertain- sential to our welfare. We understand ing vignettes about the successes and what processes have gone astray in the CRITICAL THINKING: The Antidote for Faith. failures, and personalities, of the people cancer cell. We are sequencing cancer Wayne R. Bartz. River’s Bend Press, Stillwater, involved—including scientists, doctors, genes just as we have sequenced the Minnesota, 2011. Softcover, $19.95. The au- activists, and patients. human genome, and instead of treat- thor, a retired clinical psychol- For example, Mukherjee’s book tells ments that damage normal cells while ogist and psychology professor, offers this lively and of how America’s foremost surgeon de - destroying cancer cells, we are devel- veloped the radical mastectomy oper- highly readable book to en- oping targeted treatments that inter- courage and celebrate critical ation based on a misconception of can- fere with the biological processes of thinking and provide some cer biology. Unfortunately, it had no individual cancer strains with little or tips to sharpen that skill. Bartz chance of helping women whose can- no harm to normal cells. strongly endorses the skepti- cer had already started to metastasize, Gleevec is a stunning example. It cal exploration of accepted belief and suggests having a sense of humor and it unnecessarily mutilated those targets a specific enzyme that is overac- whose cancer was localized and could about it. He may be right that his book “will tive in chronic myelogenous leukemia help you feel good about being a skeptic and (CML). Before Gleevec, patients with should generate even more doubts, ques- CML were told that they had a fatal tions, and, I trust, a few horselaughs.” Chap- disease that would kill half of them ters deal with such topics as “Must you ‘re- It is also a riveting spect’ other people’s beliefs?”; “psychics, within three to six years and that the seers, and other silly persons”; critical thinking read with a plot like a only available treatment had devastat- as the amiable skeptic’s toolbox; religious detective story and ing side effects; today, CML patients gurus who demand your money; and religious can be told they have a chronic disease zealots who demand your life. entertaining vignettes that will not shorten their life span as long as they take a pill for the rest of DEADLY CHOICES: How the Anti-Vaccine Move - about the successes ment Threatens Us All. Paul A. Offit, MD. Basic their lives. Books, New York, 2011. 270 pp. Hardcover, and failures, and Some mutations are caused by car- $27.50. Paul Offit, chief of infectious diseases cinogens in the environment: we can and director of the Vaccine personalities, of the hope to minimize or prevent these. Education Center at the Chil- people involved. Other mutations arise from random dren’s Hospital of Philadel- copying errors during the normal phia, has been at the forefront of doctors’ battle against the process of cell division: these may be anti-vaccination movement. an unpreventable fact of life. We may He sees the movement as a have to redefine what constitutes vic- war against science. The vic- have been treated just as effectively tory in the war against cancer. Instead tims are children, now increasingly suscepti- with a lumpectomy. One early of eliminating the beast, we may suc- ble to infectious diseases, some deadly, that chemotherapy researcher found a per- could otherwise be eliminated. The fear of vac- ceed in de-fanging it—turning it into cines, the choice to act on that fear, the con- manent cure for one type of cancer, a tame chronic disease that can be sequences of that choice, and the voices ris- choriocarcinoma, and was rewarded by controlled with medication. ing in protest are his subject. Offit’s book is being fired. One researcher’s procrasti- Although Pink Ribbon Blues has more than just a vigorous defense of vaccines nation and poor housekeeping led to a a limited message that may be of par- and a rebuttal of arguments against them. It’s serendipitous discovery on culture ticular interest to sociologists and a reminder of the power of scientific knowl- plates that he hadn’t gotten around to edge and the harm we risk, as a society, if we feminists, most readers will find give that up. discarding: it turned out the virus he The Em peror of all Maladies a far more was looking for grew far more slowly profitable and enjoyable use of their NEVER SAY DIE: The Myth and Marketing of the than he had imagined. time. n New Old Age. Susan Jacoby. Pantheon Books, Early scientific gropings gradually New York, 2011. 352 pp. Hard - bore fruit. Today we know that cancer cover, $27.95. The author of The Age of American Unrea- is not one disease but a collection of Harriet Hall, MD, (the SkepDoc) is a retired son and Freethinkers here fo- diseases characterized by uncontrolled physician who writes on medical topics and on cell growth. We know it is produced cuses her considerable ana- pseudoscience and questionable medical lytical and literary talents on by a series of mutations and by practices. She is a weekly contributor to the the marketing of the idea that changes in the expression of genes. Science-Based Medicine blog and is a SKEPTICAL We know its abnormalities are only INQUIRER contributing editor.

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there is a new kind of old age that is experienced in a radically different way from the old age of previous generations. She hopes this Fresh Voice, book about the “genuine battles of growing old” will appeal to those who draw more support from Passionate Polemic reality than from “platitudes” about defying old age. Pharmaceutical companies, lifestyle gurus, RYAN SEALS and scientific businessmen who suggest that there will soon be a “cure” for the “disease” of aging are among her targets.

THE SCIENCE AND HUMANISM OF STEPHEN cience has always existed in uneasy Tabloid Medicine: How JAY GOULD. Richard York and Brett Clark. alliance with general society. Like S the Internet Is Being Monthly Review Press, New York, 2011. 223 any meritocratic elite, scientists stand Used to Hijack Medical pp. Soft cover, $16.95. A welcome new analy- apart, admired and misunderstood in Science for Fear sis of the contributions to both science and equal degrees. humanistic values of the late and Profit Perhaps this is unsurprising. Scien- evolutionary biologist and By Robert Goldberg, tists and physicians, after all, are the writer Stephen Jay Gould. As PhD. Kaplan Publishing, the authors, both sociolo- products of intense selection—into un- New York, 2010. ISBN: gists, point out, Gould’s intel- dergraduate institutions, graduate or 1607147270. 336 pp. lectual legacy will take many medical schools, further postgraduate Hardcover, $25.99. years to assess. But theirs is training, and fiercely competitive aca- a good early step. As they demic positions. We expect these indi- say, Gould’s “remarkable success as a scholar and public intellectual was due not only to his viduals to possess expert and arcane lucid thought and keen insights about nature, knowledge: knowledge that, by defini- but also to his masterful prose and unmatched tion, the typical individual does not erudition.” Part One deals with his contribu- have. When it comes to medicine, we Though medicine tions to evolutionary theory and the history of trust these individuals to keep us commands a great life, Part Two to science and humanity. The lat- healthy and to treat us when we’re sick. ter section begins with a valuable chapter, “De- deal of respect... bunking as a Positive Science.” Gould empha- Perhaps a little friction now and then sized that we can learn a great deal in studying is inevitable. there remains a about where scholars go wrong and that de- Though medicine commands a bunking can therefore improve our under- great deal of respect—the majority of recalcitrant minority, standing of the world, including ourselves. Americans hold scientists and medical by whom we are all doctors in “high regard” (at 70 percent TRACKING THE MAN-BEASTS: Sasquatch, and 69 percent, respectively) according Vampires, Zombies, and More. Joe Nickell. held hostage, that Prometheus Books, Amherst, New York, 2011. to a 2009 Pew poll—there remains a is opposed to Softcover, $19. Joe Nickell is recalcitrant minority, by whom we are the master solver of major all held hostage, that is opposed to sci- scientific progress. popular mysteries, and here entific progress. This small, vocal mi- he directs his formidable in- nority that distrusts organized medi- vestigative and literary talents cine and sees conspiracies in every to a topic that endlessly fasci- laboratory has been prominent for nates us all—manlike monsters more or less imagined in decades and is increasingly able to af- topics ranging from psychology to so- our own image. He divides his topic of sup- fect our lives—whether through vac- ciology in his search for a coherent posed monstrous beings lurking at the very cination waivers, opposition to drug theory of why we seem to be growing fringes of science into five sections: ‘Monster’ development, or panic over consumer more distrustful of experts and why Men, Hairy Man-Beasts, The Supernaturals, products. organized medicine and public Extraterres trials, and Manimals. No one does Author Robert Goldberg finds a health—despite their historical such investigations better than Nickell, and he is to be congratulated for another superb effort cause of, or at least an accelerant for, pedestal—are increasingly being in bringing clear thinking and strong evidence these tendencies in the Internet and in viewed as just another voice in the to bear on questions usually swamped in our “insta-” information culture. In marketplace of health information. speculation and wishful thinking. Tabloid Medicine: How the Internet is Goldberg is at his best when review- Being Used to Hijack Medical Science for ing the histories of health scandals: —Kendrick Frazier Fear and Profit, Goldberg discusses Vioxx and cardiovascular disease, the

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REVIEWS]

measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine vancement carries hidden and uncertain guments to the same level of scrutiny. If and autism, and selective serotonin reup- risks that must be determined before in- we are so susceptible to unconscious bi- take inhibitors (SSRIs) and suicide. To troducing or allowing it into the envi- ases, as he convincingly argues in his damning effect, Goldberg documents the ronment.” A favorite ploy of ob - early chapters, why aren’t medical re- fraud and misinformation that led from structionists of all stripes is to de mand searchers equally at risk? Industry collab- the work of an errant scientist to a cul- “more science” and “better science” long oration is certainly needed for a vibrant tural phenomenon to a public relations after a substantial amount of creditable and productive scientific community, but disaster, culminating in public-health research has been done. Science and isn’t some concern over industry influ- consequences. He voices an eloquent de- medicine can never be 100 percent safe; ence warranted? Goldberg displays none. fense of the drugs, doctors, and patients hypothetical risks can be concocted ad In fact we may understand other of wronged in these instances. infinitum, ensuring a never-ending Goldberg’s arguments through his prior The result is a passionate polemic carousel of pseudoscientific accusation affiliation with libertarian causes—he is, against everything wrong with the and scientific refutation. at heart, a methodological individualist, media’s coverage of health issues. But finding answers to complex social issues amid the sound and fury, Goldberg in individual behaviors. He begins and tends to overreach, committing some of [Goldberg] wields the ends his book with discussions of how the same fallacies he decries in others individuals, with their myriad innate and betraying a cursory understanding public-opinion poll like heuristic biases, make irrational deci- of some of the major concepts in evi- a scalpel, displaying his sions. His advocacy of personalized dence-based medicine. He wields the medicine centers more on patient public-opinion poll like a scalpel, dis- roots in public advo- choice than medical efficacy. Personal- playing his roots in public advocacy, but cacy, but his writing on ized medicine has the potential to rev- his writing on research methodology seems stiff and didactic, as if he is trying research methodology olutionize health in tremendous ways, to convince his readers of the merits of yet Gold berg seems only to be relieved valid science on the basis of authority. seems stiff and didac- that it conforms so nicely to his individ- Goldberg falls prey to what we tic, as if he is trying to ualistic ideology. might call the “methodological fallacy,” For a book so concerned with the bi- impugning a study by virtue not of its convince his readers of ases of others, one finds a disturbing scientific content but of its research the merits of valid lack of humility in Tabloid Medicine. A methodology (a tendency one sees great deal of medical and public-health often among anti-vaccine advocates). science on the basis decision making rests at the penumbra Goldberg is right to point out, for ex- of authority. of current knowledge; Goldberg too ample, the many pitfalls in meta-ana- often conveys the advocate’s zeal for lytic techniques, but a recitation of unwarranted clarity. The recognition of methodological limitations does not a bias is a two-way street, and Goldberg scientific argument make. Meta-analy- But Goldberg is perhaps most con- would do well to turn his penetrating sis is a widely accepted component of troversial in his discussion of industry gaze on some of his own arguments. evidence-based medicine that is used to funding and conflict of interest. Prior Overall, Goldberg’s voice is unique summarize multiple studies. Gold berg to his work at the Center for Medicine and passionate; his book is a welcome twice cites John Ioannidis, MD, PhD, in the Public Interest, Goldberg was af- addition to the growing literature on for his work on improving clinical trials, filiated with the libertarian Manhat tan anti-science irrationality. Goldberg’s while omitting the facts that Ioannidis Institute, and it shows. Goldberg is un- emphasis on patient choice may appeal has done more than any other re- abashedly pro-industry, and he argues to individuals previously alienated in searcher in recent years to point out the that the risks presented by industry- this debate. Let’s hope this discussion potential biases in individual studies academia collaboration are no greater moves us toward a more fruitful discus- and that Ioannidis is a proponent of than the potential biases emanating sion of medicine and the public good— meta-analytic techniques. from other sources that res earchers face and the role of evidence in both. n However, Goldberg is right to em - every day. phasize the pernicious effects of the pre- Goldberg has an uncanny ability to Ryan Seals is a doctoral student in epidemiology cautionary principle—the idea that “any find bias where it supports his argument at the Harvard School of Public Health. He can be industrial activity or technological ad- but fails repeatedly to subject his own ar- reached at [email protected].

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The Problem with Neurosexism MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI

owadays it is commonly accepted Nknowledge that there are profound innate differences between genders. I’m Delusions of Gender: How Our Minds, Society, not talking about the obvious anatomical and Neurosexism Create Difference ones but about the allegedly (radically) By Cordelia Fine. different ways in which male and female W.W. Norton, New York, brains work. We routinely hear state- 2010. ISBN: 0393068382. 338 pp. ments to the effect that people of gender Hardcover, $25.95. XX or XY are better at, more capable of, or more attracted to a litany of tasks and behaviors—from spatial abilities to mathematics, from aptitude for science to liking the color pink. When prominent figures—like former Harvard Pres- One of the most convincing pieces of to look more at faces if they are female ident Larry Sum mers—get in trouble counter-evidence Fine brings up is the and at mobile toys if they are males?” for talking about behavioral gender dif- series of studies showing how social con- Superficially, yes, but it takes only a lit- ferences as if they were established facts text subtly but dramatically alters peo- tle bit of digging and some clever ex- that are backed by the power of neuro- ple’s performances on aptitude tests. Put perimental manipulation to again show and evolutionary biology, a chorus of de- young women taking a math test in a that these effects are the result of young fenders rises up to decry political cor- room in which they are surrounded boys’ and girls’ tendency to quickly pick rectness and present the Summerses of mostly by males, and they will not do as up and conform to ex pected gender the day as valiant fighters for rationality well as the average male. Change the en- roles that are not-so-subtly imposed by in the face of relativism and dema- vironment to a more gender-neutral one, their environment (not just parents but, goguery. and the same group of women will now more importantly, peers and school Not so fast, says Cordelia Fine in her perform just as well as the men. This is teachers). As for the toddlers, a major Delusions of Gender: How Our Minds, So- because, as several re searchers quoted by experiment allegedly showing innate ciety, and Neurosexism Create Differ ence. Fine argue, human beings are extremely differences turned out to be seriously Fine is an academic psychologist and attuned to social context, and we adapt flawed because it was conducted in a freelance writer whose book ought to be to social expectations very quickly—and way in which the experimenter could kept beside the likes of Steven Pinker’s largely subconsciously. easily influence the result (i.e., there was (antithetical) The Blank Slate to provide What psychologists call priming also no double blinding). When repeated a bit of balance to what has be come com- has a major effect because it is capable with proper protocols, most of these mon and yet largely un founded “knowl- of erasing whatever “well-known” dif- studies showed little if any difference edge” about gender differences. Let us be ferences there seem to be between gen- between genders. clear at the outset that nobody is seri- ders. Read a story to women about to Nature and nurture surely interact in ously suggesting that genetics and evo- take an aptitude test. If the story mir- complex ways, particularly in an animal lution have nothing to do with human rors common gender stereotypes, the as behaviorally flexible as a human behavior, including gendered differences. test takers will do measurably worse being. But the danger of “neurosexism” Rather, Fine’s claim is that a lot is being than if the story characterizes women (and evolutionary sexism) is that public taken as established fact these days on as equally as good as men at whatever pronouncements by scientists far out- the basis of much-too-flimsy evidence— task is being considered. pace the evidence, with the result of re- and, more importantly, that the widening “But,” the skeptics will say, “what inforcing stereotypes and negatively af- consensus among scientists and the gen- about all the literature showing that fecting millions of lives. Scientists have eral public about the innateness (and gender differences are measurable even an ethical duty, as Wittgenstein put it consequent inevitability) of gender dif- in very young babies? Don’t young girls in another context, to remember that ferences has a measurable and pernicious ‘naturally’ play with dolls while boys whereof one cannot speak thereof one effect on women. prefer fire trucks? Don’t toddlers tend must be silent. n

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[INBOX

A ‘9/11 Truth’ Letter-Writing Campaign to SI

An interesting phenomenon began the evening of January 7, 2011, almost a month after the publication of our Janu- ary/February 2011 issue with its cover article “The Conspir- acy Meme: Why Conspiracy Theories Appeal and Persist” by sociologist Ted Goertzel. At 6:41 PM ET, a column titled “Skep tical Inquirer Attacks 9/11 Truth Move ment, Avoids Vast Body of Scientific Evi- dence” was posted on the website of Architects and Engi- neers for 9/11 Truth. The column was a critical response to Goertzel’s article. It lauded SI’s “noble mission” of criticizing pseudoscience and claims of the paranormal but said in this case we’d gotten it wrong. It claimed Goert zel’s article had ignored a “vast body of evidence” that demonstrated “the controlled demolition of all three World Trade Center skyscrapers on 9/11.” As criticism, its tone was not unrea- sonable. It ended with a call for a letter-writing campaign of “polite” letters to me as editor. At 7:01 I received the first letter via e-mail. It was not polite. It referred to the web column. It called for seizure of SI’s assets and asserted that “Jews—not Arabs—did 9/11.” Other letters rapidly followed. By noon of the next day, eleven letters had arrived; over the ensuing weeks the total would exceed thirty. Some were fairly reasonable and polite, One scary outcome may be others were not. All expressed disappointment in our article. Conspiracy Thinking that when a culture becomes Yet few if any provided any indication that the writer was Thanks for the meme-based very homogeneous, any minor an SI reader or had even read our article. The first clue was analysis of conspiracy theories variation from the cultural that these complaints came so quickly after the web post- (“The Conspiracy Meme: Why norm will be seen in the light of ing and we hadn’t heard complaints like these about Go- Conspiracy Theories Appeal such memes and will be ruth- ertzel’s article before that, even though the issue had been and Persist,” SI, January/Febru- lessly stamped out. Perhaps that out for a month. The second was that none of the letter writ- ary 2011). One supposes that is what happened in twentieth- century Russia, China, and ers engaged substantively with any aspect of the article or our minds, adept at pattern find- Germany when paranoid lead- showed they understood that it dealt with the processes of ing, use disparate data either unintentionally or intentionally to ers and a terrified public coex- conspiratorial thinking (“why conspiracy theories appeal grow the meme. It may even be isted: the meme of orthodox be- and persist,” as we stated on the cover) about a number of that memes are easily spread in- lief collided with real worlds, different scientific topics; 9/11 was just one of the many side a given cultural universe or and everything became unsafe. examples discussed. Most of the writers simply asserted cultural mind. One supposes the As a conservative Christian, 9/11 truthers’ views that the World Trade Center collapse SKEPTICAL IN QUIRER and its I thank you for your publication. Although we obviously disagree had to have been accomplished by planted explosives. An cultural universe also has memes buried in it. I am reminded of a on basic assumptions about our example of these letters, selected nearly randomly from the universe, the search for truth via thirty-plus received, is Dan Noel’s on page 63. Tom Clancy novel, Rainbow 6, in which a hostage is astounded skeptical inquiry is something One exception to such shortcomings was a letter (actu- that his life might be forfeited we have in common. ally two versions of different lengths) from professional en- due to his captors’ mistaken be- John Van Egmond, gineer Wayne H. Coste. His letters dealt with several aspects lief that he possesses some cru- Egmond Associates Ltd. of what Goertzel actually wrote and resulted in several cial data. Georgetown, Ontario, somewhat constructive interactions between the two of It may be that we have to Canada them. We publish the shorter version on page 63. Goertzel live with memes and their im- responds at the end. pact because aggregation and ordering are what we do. We Ted Goertzel mischaracterized —KENDRICK FRAZIER, Editor have a fight-or-flight mecha- the content of the e-mails nism that informs our memes. stolen from climate scientists in

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LETTERS TO THE EDITOR]

his otherwise excellent article that ... qualified specialists CAL INQUIRER’s contributions may be the only one, but I think on conspiracy theories. [have] an opportunity to pres- in the field of parapsychology, that ideology is, and has been, a The e-mails don’t indicate ent alternative views. ...” where evidence is much more problem counterproductive to whether or not scientists ever Engineers who observe the subtle than in the case of the freedom and liberty. It may be a pressured editors about the pub- destruction of WTC7 as possi- Twin Towers. part of the political debate, but lication of a paper on climate. For ble only by controlled demo - I strongly encourage you to in the end it is useful only as a context, the journal the scientists lition have been stifled by the include in your next edition a means of placing power in the were e-mailing about, Climate National Institute of Standards solid article on the official 9/11 hands of those who espouse the Research, saw half its board resign and Technology’s (NIST) deci- conspiracy theory, with a sec- ideology. Ideology is apart from in protest because a rogue editor sion to suppress details of their tion on the amply demonstrated reality. It may be in part based on was publishing suspect climate WTC7 failure models. For ex- controlled demolition of the reality but has to be taken on papers without appropriate peer ample, NIST replied: “Indeed Twin Towers. Anything less will faith. review. the NIST Director has deter- establish the respectable SKEP- W.C. “Rusty” Lyon Goertzel cites an article from mined that the release of 3,370 TICAL INQUIRER as another [email protected] the American Enterprise Insti- files from the [failure] analysis agent in 9/11 censorship and an tute’s Steven Hayward. While results ... might jeopardize pub- accomplice in the fear, the wars, Ted Goertzel replies: Hayward’s article is less strident lic safety, and therefore, these the economic meltdown, and than most misinformation circu- files have been withheld.” Sup- the neglect of pressing world- Memes are everywhere, as John lated about in the e-mails, it pressing this analysis from peer wide problems that the 9/11 van Egmond observes. They can be refers to scientists as “a cabal” and review is unconscionable. Public hysteria has generated. dangerous when they become fixed passes on long-discredited criti- safety is endangered when engi- ideas, impervious to evidence and Dan Noel cisms of climate research. It was neers are precluded from study- argument. Believers in conspiracies Costa Mesa, California odd to see this piece cited in an ing how an ordinary office fire are more like lawyers or activists article about conspiracy theories. could completely and utterly de- than scientists. They eagerly collect I don’t think Goertzel did a stroy a forty-seven-story modern evidence to support their cause, ig- Goertzel states, “Opposition fair job of describing the study skyscraper such that for more noring or discounting any that con- rooted in religious or ideologi- of past climates. The statistical that 100 feet it exhibited free-fall flicts with it. Wayne Coste and his cal concerns is acceptable as methods underlying the origi- acceleration. fellow “truthers” are an example. part of the democratic political nal “hockey stick” papers have Goertzel notes, “technologi- Coste demands a peer-reviewed process, but it need not prevent been widely politicized, and I cal conspiracies often . . . [make] study of one set of files, implying scientists from reaching a con- fear that so much misinforma- bizarre claims that ... [informa- that if they were released they sensus when one is justified” (p. tion has been produced about tion is] suppressed.” In this case, would support his thesis. He makes 37). I would like the author to those papers that it is hard for it is not a bizarre claim but no mention of the extensive evi- clarify his meaning. most people to discern truth rather a bizarre reality. We wel- dence already available that does My readings of James Madi- from fiction. come Goert zel’s, and SKEPTI- not support it. He calls the suppres- son, including his Memorial and But that misinformation has CAL INQUIRER’s, public call for sion of these files “bizarre,” dismiss- Remonstrance against Religious consequences: Attorney Gen- NIST to release its suppressed ing concerns that they contain in- Assessments and his statement, eral Ken Cuccinelli of Virginia analysis. formation that could be of use to “Religion and government will is suing the University of Vir - terrorists. This argument might not Wayne H. Coste, P.E. both exist in greater purity, the ginia because he wants the doc- be true but it is plausible, not Petition Signer less they are mixed together,” uments from one of the original bizarre. What is bizarre is the the- Architects and Engineers make clear to me that the author hockey-stick re searchers. Politi- ory that explosives were secretly for 9/11 Truth of the Constitution did not in- cians harassing scientists like planted in the building in such a tend to include religious con- that is just one price of a society way as to cause a controlled demo- cerns as an acceptable part of the rife with conspiracy theories. lition. That would have involved The cover of the January/Feb- democratic process in the United dozens if not hundreds of people Aaron Huertas ruary 2011 SKEPTICAL IN- States of America. There are still pulling out walls and disrupting Press Secretary QUIRER is excellent. The draw- a few million of us citizens who everyday activities, with no one de- Union of Concerned Sci- ing and the conspiracy theory think that religion has no part to tecting them or giving them away. entists formula suit very well what is play in the political process of our Peer review takes place at schol- Washington, D.C. arguably the grandest contem- government. arly journals where the peers are ex- porary conspiracy: 9/11. Alas, Likewise, John Adams’s whole perts in a field. Readers who are the article itself gets 9/11 all term in office was essentially a de- serious about peer-reviewed re- As a registered professional en- wrong, peremptorily implying bate over whether ideological search on 9/11 could plough through gineer committed to the scien- that the official “Osama’s fanat- concerns should be the basis of Bazant and Verdure’s “Mechanics of tific method, I would like to ics brought down the Twin our government, including the Progressive Collapse: Learning echo Ted Goertzel’s support for Towers with their hijacked jets” concept of political parties. This from World Trade Center and the peer-review process. Go- theory would be an irrefutable was not concluded, nor has it Building Demolitions,” in the ertzel says, “review panels must fact. This casts an ominous been concluded since then. We March 2007 Journal of Engineer- have full access to all datasets. shadow on the whole article as have parties, and we have ideo- ing Mechanics. Bazant and Ver- ... It is especially important well as the value of the SKEPTI- logical debates (culture wars). I dure conclude that the criteria for a

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progressive collapse were met in the miss the concerns of people who do ders of religions until the more Klaus Schmeh replies: World Trade Center case with a not share their faith in the scien- scientific age saw most of these Thompson’s schizophrenia theory is margin of error of several orders of tific method. I share Rusty Lyon’s as disturbances of the mind indeed interesting, and it is one I magnitude. If this paper is too tech- strong preference for a secular po- rather then visitations by “God.” have discussed with Joe Nickell and nical, as it will be for anyone with- litical system, but that doesn’t give I have worked with many others at the European Skeptic out a background in engineering me the right to tell other people homeless and mentally ill pa- Congress. One argument against it mechanics, I recommend a readable what basis they can use for their tients and find their writings is the fact that the Voynich manu- paper by Brent Blanchard, “A Crit- judgments. We certainly don’t and drawings to be very bizarre script was written on animal ical Analysis of the Collapse of the want anything like the Soviet sys- and highly detailed cryptic skin—an expensive material in the WTC Towers,” which is easily tem, in which the government works, even when they present fifteenth century and certainly not found online. Blanchard is in the claimed to have “scientific” truth as rather contained and appear something that was generally given business of the controlled demolition “normal.” and suppressed anyone who dis- to a mentally ill person. But this is of large buildings, and his company agreed, any more than we want to David L. Thompson only an indication, not a hard fact. had instruments in place in New be ruled by a theocracy. Conspiracy [email protected] I have never heard Gilliam’s York at the time of the attack. He theories are tools used by people hypothesis put forth before, but it also happens to be my next-door with closed minds. We need to re- might be worth examining. One neighbor, so I can vouch for his in- ject them even when they are used It was only briefly that I had an interesting question is why any- tegrity. by people on our side of an issue. opportunity some years ago to body would write music in such an Dan Noel asks the SKEPTICAL see some pages of the botanical encrypted way and illustrate it INQUIRER to publish an issue on section of the Voynich manu- with strange pictures. 9/11, although the existing litera- The Voynich Manuscript script, but what struck me, a The naked women are clearly ture covers it extensively. There are farmer and nurseryman, were il- an argument in favor of Harvey’s many good references at the I enjoyed the analysis of the lustrations clearly showing graft- hypothesis. But what about the Wikipedia site on 9/11 conspiracy Voynich manuscript by Klaus ing techniques for plant propa- (nonidentifiable) plants, the star theories. An article on the “truthers” Schmeh in the January/Feb ruary gation—not a common skill. patterns, and the other illustra- movement would be of interest, but 2011 issue (“The Voynich Man - Surely the illustration on tions? It would be interesting to the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is not the u script: The Book Nobody Can page 47 is a sunflower and the see if they could have a relation to place for peer-reviewed technical Read”). I was interested in the plants on page 49 are equally fa- reproductive biology, too. research on engineering mechanics. comparison to the works of miliar. The left one, in full There is an abundance of peer- Adolf Wolfli, a diagnosed bloom, and the right are the reviewed research on climate change schiz ophrenic who lived and same with only the seed pod Kudos for ‘Hope: in scientific journals, so the conspir- died in Bern, Switzerland. A (poppy?) remaining. Faith, Atheism, acy theorists are reduced to arguing book by his psychiatrist Dr. The broad range of subjects and Agnosticism’ that the peer review process itself is Walter Morgenthaler, Madness seems to indicate an author a conspiracy. Virginia Attorney and Art, outlines many of this who was highly intelligent and Having been an avid subscriber General Cuc cinelli’s campaign strange man’s works that are educated who may have suf- to SKEPTICAL INQUIRER for against the climate scientists at the very similar to the Voynich fered, perhaps later in life, from over thirty years, I am deeply University of Virginia is looking manuscript. a degenerative mental disease moved to report that “Hope: foolish even to many of his fellow The unusual and cryptic and whose writing was to him Faith, Atheism, and Agnosti- conservatives. But the climate sci- writing and illustrations are (or her) perfectly clear. cism” by Jonathan C. Smith (in entists’ public relations and commu- very alike in many ways. Both the January/February 2011 nications skills have not matched emphasize a musical composi- R.G. Huber issue) has to be among the best their statistical legerdemain. Glo - tional idea, women in odd situ- Branchville, New Jersey five articles I’ve ever read. Never bal-warming predictions necessar- ations, and many illustrations before, anywhere, have I seen ily depend on complex statistical along with text. Wolfli’s work this age-old “division of the simulations that are very difficult was prolific with thousands of Could the Voynich manuscript minds” so clearly dissected and to understand and evaluate, and a pages, many large, produced be some sort of musical nota- delineated. It certainly helped little more humility and respect for over thirty-five years in an in- tion? Has anyone analyzed it me understand, with crystal the honest concerns of others would stitution. from that perspective? Repeti- clarity, how our normal human go a long way. Aaron Huertas’s ref- I believe that the Voynich tions and large-scale patterns affinity to “believe” can be an erence to a “rogue editor” raises a red manuscript is the work of an seem consistent with music. accepted adjunct to a skeptic’s flag in my mind. There can be hon- unnamed and unknown schizo- R. Allen Gilliam toolbox. est disagreements about what kind phrenic, as I believe the Book of Winter Park, Florida Thank you, Jonathan—and of peer review is “appropriate,” but Revelation by John of Patmos SKEPTICAL INQUIRER! can there really be a “rogue editor”? was also the hallucinations of a Wasn’t the editor selected by the paranoid schizophrenic with his Phil Kennedy As a physician my strong im- publisher or editorial board? Simi- emphasis on repeated numbers Wethersfield, Connecticut pression is that the Voynich larly, the curt dismissal of Steven of sevens, sixes, etc. A recent manuscript is a treatise on re- Hayward, a serious and thoughtful book by Daniel Smith titled productive biology. writer, is unconvincing. Muses, Madmen, and Prophets Kudos for publishing Jonathan Scientists sometimes act as if discusses the effects of auditory William C Harvey, MD C. Smith’s article. Any article their expertise entitles them to dis- hallucinations on many of foun - Dallas, Texas that makes reference to the

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Church of the Flying Spaghetti recent book Relaxation, Medita- While I share Doloff ’s con- Interview with Mon ster is a superior article in- tion and Mindfulness: Second cern about magical thinking, we a UFOlogist deed. Those who may wish to Edition (www.lulu.com/stress). must not confuse naiveté with learn more about his noodly If SKEPTICAL INQUIRER agrees, I confidence in one’s ability to With regards to the intriguing goodness (especially if you are may attempt an article in these take advantage of opportunities. interview with UFOlogist Kevin partial to beer and pirates)— pages. Doloff has a student who is both Randle (SI, January/Feb ruary and perhaps in becoming a Hispanic and a Marine, yet he 2011): Isn’t he just a bit perplexed Pastafarian—should check out only considers the student’s odds by UFO crashes? Surely it seems of success as a Hispanic. Why the Church’s website at www.ve Seeing Auras odd that alien spacecraft, of re- not consider the greater odds of ganza.org. markable design and based on Thank you for your excellent a Marine succeeding? The “door” Pat Russell technologies that enable them to article “The Aura” (SI, Janu- that the student is looking for is [email protected] travel astonishing distances at ary/February 2011). I have been opportunity. While some optimism is near (or be yond?) light speeds, seeing auras for about ten years. just “give it up” and crash in the Auras, in my case, are not the foolish and even reckless (espe- Professor Jonathan Smith ends quiet skies of our planet—not result of psychic phenomena cially when we seek nostrums his article with the question “Can rather than medical treatment), just once but several times. Just a but are the result of chromatic one be an atheist, of any kind, it can be pessimism that is fool- thought. . .. aberration in my glasses. On and live a spiritual life?” He an- ish in failing to anticipate that bright sunny days the skyscrap- swers his own question with a re- which cannot be anticipated. Arthur S. Reber, PhD ers downtown (and sometimes sounding “Of course.” What on It would be most foolish to Broeklundian Professor of people, in exactly the right earth is he talking about? And accept de spair and lock our- Psychology, Emeritus lighting conditions) have either what is a “spiritual journey?” selves into permanent recession. Brooklyn College and the blue or red auras. The aura is a These statements nullify very fine line surrounding the Bob Frankston Graduate Center of much of the foregoing content edge of the object. http://frankston.com CUNY and call for a completely new It only appears in certain article on the concept of spiri- lighting conditions and, I think, tuality. is only apparent if the object is Jim Cranwell light. Dark objects don’t show Whitby an aura. [FOR THE RECORD Ontario, Canada It makes me wonder if at least some reports of auras are Ed Whitfield is a Republican congressman from Kentucky, Jonathan C. Smith replies: some kind of natural chromatic not Tennessee, as mistakenly stated in John Mashey’s “Strange aberration in the lens or other To Phil Kennedy: Thanks. A Problems in the Wegman Report” (SI, March/April 2011). clear tissues of the eye. spaghettigram of your name is ap- We apologize to readers and the author for somehow missing propriately “Eh! Kindly Pen!” Gary Hughes-Fenchel a character in our retype of the title of Klaus Schmeh’s article To Pat Russell: You must be [email protected] “The Voynich Manuscript” (SI, January/February 2011). congratulated for consistently send- ing this exact note to whatever journal publishes work in which I Optimism and mention His Holiness, the FSM. ‘The Right Stuff’ Indeed, a Spaghettigram of your [FEEDBACK name is “Assert! Pull!” Seriously, I I am writing in response to recommend that the curious read Steven Doloff ’s criticism of op- The letters column is a forum on Henderson’s classic “The Gospel of timism (“The Right Stuff,” SI, mat ters raised in previous issues. the Flying Spaghetti Monster” and January/February 2011) for two Letters should be no longer than Jon Smith’s heretical “GOD reasons. First, to ask what Doloff 225 words. Due to the volume of SPEAKS! The Pastafarian Quat- means by “success.” Second, and letters we receive, not all can be rains.” Pat, may you be touched by more important, is that the idea published. Send letters as e-mail His Noodly Appendage! that one can predict success is at text (not attachments) to let- To Jim Cranwell: You need to odds with the engine of evolu- ters@csicop. org. In the subject know that many (including Jim tion. It is akin to adaptationism. line, provide your surname and informative identi fication, e.g.: “Smith Let- Harris) who call themselves “New We can take advantage of oppor- ter on Jones evolution art icle.” In clude your name and ad dress at the end Atheists” also refer to themselves as tunities as they arise as long as we of the letter. You may also mail your letter to Letter to the Editor, 944 Deer “Spiritual Atheists.” Some are sec- are open to them and don’t limit Dr. NE, Albuquerque, NM 87122, or fax it to 505-828-2080. ular Buddhists or even secular ourselves to what we can antici- Christians. We reject childish and pate. We can narrowly view primitive superstition, yet find Doloff ’s reasoning in terms of meaning in what fills us with probabilities, but it’s more im- awe, mystery, and reverence. For portant to look at success in more on what spiritual atheism terms of how systems evolve Cause Page: Committee for Skeptical Inquiry/SKEPTICAL INQUIRER magazine entails, you may venture into my whether biological or not. Fan Page: SKEPTICAL INQUIRER

Skeptical Inquirer | May / June 2011 65 SI May June 11 CUT_SI new design masters 3/25/11 10:03 AM Page 66

[ THE LAST LAUGH BENJAMIN RADFORD March/April 2011 Hidden Messages Puzzle Contest Winner: Barry Zimmerman. Amateur Astrologer Discovers New Constellation by J. Goodbody

The discovery of a new constellation in the night sky has created an upheaval within the astrological community, bringing notoriety to Rockford-area palm reader Debbie Williams. Unable to determine the ultimate fate of a client during an astrology reading, Williams found that the sign Aries no longer seemed to provide her with any sense of celestial foretelling. “I always had trouble making out Aries,” said Williams, who admits needing to tilt her head in a certain way Artemis and squint with one eye in order to see the constellation known as “The Ram.” According to Williams, Aries is just too small to be considered a constellation and thus can’t reasonably have any real effect on 1/12th of the entire human population. This new revelation left Williams relieved to know Using her pareidoliascope, Williams was able to observe Aries in a new light. that her own difficulties in assigning vague advice to desperate people were not her fault. “I was thrilled to realize that my recent failures weren’t because of Since the announcement, hundreds of psychic mediums and as- the impossibility to predict future events and personality traits based trologers have come forth claiming to have predicted the shakeup. upon the positions of the planets, the sun and the moon in relation Williams says, now that she thinks about it, her own psychic told her to stars that are trillions of miles away,” Williams said. “It must be that “big things were going to happen in her personal or professional because this particular constellation is flawed.” life, having something to do with the outdoors.” Seizing an opportunity, Williams first relegated the tiny Aries to “She gave me that reading so long ago, I almost forgot about it, but merely a dwarf constellation, or constelloid, removing it of its influ- she sure was spot on,” Williams said. “I mean what could be more ence over human events. ‘outdoors’ than the universe, right?” She then began to construct her own constellation by assigning the Using an instrument called a pareidoliascope, astrologers are able to stars that once made up Aries and borrowing some others from nearby perceive otherwise nonexistent patterns created by stars strewn Pisces. Williams observed that the new cluster of stars looks a lot like apart by hundreds of light years. These readings of the constella- her cat, Artemis, and so named the discovery after her dear pet. She is tions can be hugely influential with people because of psychological hopeful that her new constellation Artemis will take its rightful place in phenomena such as confirmation bias, apophenia (the tendency to the daily horoscope. see patterns in otherwise meaningless data) and subjective valida- tion. In fact, Americans spend billions of dollars per year seeking Astrology is still recovering from the recent controversy brought on advice on major life decisions. by astronomer Parke Kunkle, who pointed out that your sign might very well be wrong anyway because of precession of the equinoxes. The astrological community is in full debate over how this new constel- His competing claim is that a thirteenth constellation called Ophi- lation will influence the employment opportunities, stock market trends, uchus should be included in the zodiac calendar. This has left mil- and the love lives of over half a billion people across the world. lions concerned and angry that their lives may have been guided in In recent years, part-timers seem to be playing a larger role in the the wrong direction over all these years. field of astrology. According to Dr. Roger Flemming, a professor at But most astrologers reject Kunkle’s claims, convinced that the sci- the University of Chicago’s Astrology and Astrotherapy Department, it ence of astronomy, and the methodological naturalism it uses to de- is not uncommon for amateur astrologers to happen upon discover- rive facts from detailed observation and reliable mathematical mod- ies that significantly contribute to pseudoscience. els, can’t say anything about who should marry whom or what Professional astrologers complain that government and university-sup- lottery numbers they should play. ported astrologers are too underfunded and overwhelmed to keep track “You’re right, we can’t do that,” said each and every astronomer of the influence of all the celestial bodies. reached for comment. “That’s not the point.” “It’s great that we have part-time prognosticators contributing to the If Williams’ discovery withstands the rigorous process of peer re- field of astrology and filling in the gaps,” Flemming said. “You don’t view—which within the astrological community means that her have to be some Zodiacal professor to help people give up personal peers launch a letter writing campaign and press releases to change responsibility for the things that happen in their lives.” public sentiment—she may be the first astrologer in millennia to actually change the Zodiac itself.

J. Goodbody frequently has thoughts in his head that make him smile. Were they expressed at the moment they poof into existence without some form of structured outlet such as satire, these same thoughts would cause signiﬁcant distress among his friends, family, and cowork- ers. This is why he writes for The Chicago Dope, a satirical online newspaper, from which this article is reprinted with permission. SI May June 11 CUT_SI new design masters 3/25/11 10:03 AM Page 67

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