SI Sept. Oct 11_SI new design masters 7/26/11 1:09 PM Page 5

[ NEWS AND COMMENT Comet Elenin Will Not Destroy Earth This Year DAVID MORRISON

y r o

In the middle of the gathering Internet t a v r

fear about the doomsday of December e s b O 12, 2012, there have been two new apoc- n i a t

alyptic distractions. First there was a n u o M

widely reported prediction by fundamen- e l b

talist preacher Harold Camp ing (the a T

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founder of “family radio” in Cali fornia) J / s r

that the end of the world would begin on e m o S May 21, 2011. Camp ing claim ed that on d n a

this date the good people would be trans- , s k c ported to heaven in what is called “the i H

, n

Rapture.” It now seems clear that this did a m s

not happen or that the number of good s i e

people is vanishingly small. W In addition, there is growing fear of Comet Elenin on May 5, 2011, when it was 170 million miles from Earth. It is nothing unusual and no dramatic events are expected. newly discovered Comet Elenin, which is variously predicted to collide with Earth exerted strong gravitational or electro- Elenin. Some websites have substituted in October 2011 or to in duce massive magnetic effects on our planet. When photos of the much brighter comet Wild earthquakes and pole shifts from its grav- scientists pointed out that this little 2 and called it Elenin. In an unusual step, itational or magnetic perturbation of our comet can have no measurable gravita- NASA/JPL released a comment by Don planet. Some even claim that Elenin is tional or tidal effect, and that comets do Yeomans, NASA’s top comet scientist, not a comet at all but a massive brown not have magnetic fields, the story who de scribed Elenin as “kind of wimpy.” dwarf star. shifted. For people who are convinced the He noted that we will “probably need a What are the facts? C2010 X1 Elenin comet did cause the earthquakes, this good pair of binoculars, clear skies, and a (to give its full name) is a long-period proves that Elenin is not a comet at all dark, secluded location to see it even on comet that takes about 10,000 years but a much more massive (and danger- its brightest night.” to complete one orbit around the Sun. ous) interloper. Other websites suggest that the comet Russian amateur astron omer Leonid The fact is that Elenin fits the defini- is accompanied by a giant UFO that con- Elenin discovered it with a robotic tele- tion of a comet: It is a solar system object trols its orbit. They assert that aliens are scope in New Mexico on December 10, with an elongated (eccentric) orbit that is steering the comet into collision with 2010. It reaches peri helion (when it will outgassing a tenuous atmosphere (coma) Earth. These claims sound like the ru- be closest to the Sun) on September 10, and tail as it ap proaches the Sun. Comets mors that surrounded Comet Hale-Bopp 2011, and will be closest to Earth on Oc- are de fined operationally by the presence in 1997. It, too, was said to be accompa- tober 16 at a distance of thirty-five mil- of the visible coma and tail. It is clear that nied by a UFO, and many people bought lion kilometers, approximately one hun- Elenin cannot possibly be a massive ob- telescopes so that they could watch it. As dred times farther than the distance ject like a brown dwarf. If it were, it would we all remember, the Heaven’s Gate cult between Earth and the Moon. The comet not have a coma or tail because the gas interpreted the arrival of Hale-Bopp as a is a tiny object, roughly five kilometers in cannot escape from an object with sub- signal for their mass suicide, thinking diameter, and (like all comets) it is visible stantial gravity. In addition, if it were they would be transported to the accom- only because it outgases an extensive, ten- massive we would be seeing its gravita- panying spaceship. While there is noth- uous atmosphere as it is warmed by the tional influence on the orbits of the plan- ing to fear from Comet Elenin, perhaps Sun. Its mass is less than one-billionth ets, especially Mars and Earth, but there we should be afraid of how some people the mass of Earth. Although several am- is no change in these orbits. Finally, if it are reacting to it. were a brown dwarf it would have been ateur astronomers are regularly photo - Related Articles graphing the comet, it has remained faint easily detected in the various previous as- through June 2011, and it may never be- tronomical surveys, including the recent David Morrison’s “The Myth of Nibiru and the WISE infrared mission, even when it was End of the World in 2012” (SI, September/ come visible to the naked eye. October 2008), “Update on the Nibiru 2012 One of the frequent claims on con- still in the outer solar system. ‘Doomsday’” (SI, November/December 2009), spiracy theory websites is that this comet Ironically, the inconspicuous nature of and “The 2012 Doomsday Hoax: Update II” (SI, shifted Earth’s axis by three degrees in this comet plays into some of the conspir- July/August 2011). See also ’s acy theories. There are many claims that “2012: Peter Gersten’s ‘Leap of Faith’” (SI, February 2010, precipitating the Chile July/August 2011) and the third part of his col- earthquake. Some believe that it also NASA and the news media are suppress- umn in this issue, p. 33. caused a larger pole shift that triggered ing information about Elenin. When the Japan earthquakes of March 2011. NASA sent a video on disaster prepared- David Morrison is a planetary scientist, a NASA ness to its employees in June, I began to senior scientist, and a Committee for Skeptical Ignoring plate tectonics as the cause of Inquiry fellow. earthquakes, they suggest that the comet hear claims that this was to prepare us for

Skeptical Inquirer | September / October 2 01 1 5 SI_SI new design masters 7/21/11 12:56 PM Page 6

Power Balance, Down and Out in

RICHARD SAUNDERS

“frequencies” that can improve the bal- ceived power of the subject.) The video ance, strength, and flexibility of the has had more than one hundred thou- wearer. Many sporting stars continue to sand views, and judging by the e-mails this day to promote the band. (See Har- I have received, it has stopped many riet Hall, “Power Balance Tech nology: people from falling for the scam. Pseudoscientific Silliness Suck ers Card- Then I visited the office of CHOICE Carrying Surfers,” SI, May/June 2010.) magazine, an independent consumer In late 2009 I was asked to appear on watchdog, and suggested they consider the Australian television news show doing a report on Power Balance. I ex - Today Tonight to examine the claims of plained the tricks used and advised on the Power Balance company by putting testing. They, true to their guidelines, none other than Tom O’Dowd, the tested the product without further in- Australian distributor of the product, through a series of tests. At first, when volvement by me or the Power Balance O’Dowd demonstrated the effect of the company. Their conclusion was that the hologram by pushing down on the out- product did not perform as claimed. stretched arms of six volunteers, the vol- They awarded the Power Balance band unteers found that they had consider- their Shonky Award, given for the worst ably more strength to resist once they scams and rip-offs, in 2010. This event

had the hologram on them or near was covered by the media and sent out a

p o

l them. O’Dowd reported that he was strong message to the Australian public

n

u D

very happy with the volunteers and all (see http://tinyurl.com/5rv987a).

l

e a

h was working as he predicted. I had the With all the negative publicity and

c

a

R

:

impression that O’Dowd sincerely be- complaints, the government had to act.

o

t o

h lieved in the product. P In December 2010 the Australian Com - Then I produced one of the most petition and Consumer Commis sion Richard Saunders with Power Balance wrist bands, valuable and powerful tools in the skep- which he demonstrated don’t work. (ACCC) ordered Power Balance Aus- tical arsenal: the humble six-sided die. tralia to refund all customers who felt Out of sight of O’Dowd (and me) the they had been ripped off. ACCC chair- roll of the die decided which one of the man Graeme Samuel said in a state- We have all heard the expression “two volunteers would have the hologram ment: “Power Balance has admitted that steps forward, one step back.” This is all slipped into his or her back pocket. As there is no credible scientific basis for too often the story with skeptical ac- the national television audience saw, tivism, and it can even be a case of “two O’Dowd (and thus Power Balance) the claims and therefore no reasonable steps forward, one step to the side, three failed five out of five times to identify grounds for making representations steps back” and so on. In a strange sort the correct volunteer during his strength about the benefits of the product.” of skeptical two-step, dedicated cam- tests (see http://tinyurl.com/3yak3vo). Sales dried up, and in May 2011 Pow- paigners can find themselves right back Inspired by this adventure and with er Balance in Australia collapsed (see at the start after waltzing around for help from skeptical friends, in early http://tinyurl.com/3o7blh3). months if not years. But there are ex- 2010 I produced a ten-minute video for I am delighted to have played a small ceptions. YouTube titled “Applied Kinesi ology: part in ending this scam that raked in Over the past year, thanks in large How It’s Done” (http://tinyurl.com/ millions of dollars in Australia alone. I part to skeptical activism, the Power 2v35zs3). This video shows the three thank reporter Frank Pangallo from Balance franchise in Australia has col- primary tricks used by Power Balance Today Tonight for asking me to take part lapsed. For those who don’t know, (and its clones) to give the illusion of in the television report that started the Power Balance is a thin rubber wrist more power. (It is important to note ball rolling. band with two embedded holographic that even the person demonstrating the disks. In Australia the band cost $64 Power Balance can fall victim to the Richard Saunders is a CSI fellow, Life Member of AUD (~$68 USD). It was, and still is, ideomotor effect and thus not realize , and producer of the Skeptic claimed that the holograms contain that he or she in fact controls the per- Zone podcast.

6 Volume 35 Issue 5 | SI_SI new design masters 7/21/11 2:56 PM Page 7

[ NEWS AND COMMENT

Loftus, Stollznow Join CSI Executive Council

The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry faces on places other than heads), reli- (CSI) has elected two new executive gion, haunted houses, and more. council members, Elizabeth Loftus and Stollznow is a researcher at the Uni- Karen Stollznow. As members, they versity of California, Berkeley, and re- will also serve on the SKEPTICAL IN- ceived her PhD in linguistics from the QUIRER editorial board. University of New England. A prolific Elizabeth Loftus is a world-re - writer about skepticism, she is the nowned psychologist with an expertise “Naked Skeptic” columnist for CSI and in human memory. She has conducted the “Bad Language” columnist for extensive research on the misinformation Skeptic magazine. In addition, she is a effect and the nature of false memories. host of the Point of Inquiry podcast and In 20 02 she was ranked number 58 (the a cohost of the Monster Talk podcast.

“We are pleased to have both of these distinguished scholars fighting for science and reason in the trenches as part of their daily lives and professions on the executive council.” — Barry Karr, CSI executive director Elizabeth Loftus

highest-rank ed woman) on a list of the She is a SKEPTICAL INQUIRER con- 100 most influential researchers in psy- tributing editor and managing editor of chology in the twentieth century. the ’s peer-reviewed At the University of California, journal the Scientific Review of Mental Irvine, Loftus is a distinguished profes- Health Practice. She is also a research sor in the Department of Psy chology fellow of the Educational and Social Behavior; the Department Founda tion and a former director of of Criminology, Law, and Society; and the San Francisco Bay Area Skeptics. the Department of Cognitive Sciences, “We are pleased to have both of and she is also a fellow of the Center these distinguished scholars fighting for the Neu ro biology of Learning and for science and reason in the trenches Memory and a professor of law. as part of their daily lives and profes- Karen Stollznow has spent more sions on the executive council,” says than a decade investigating pseudosci- Barry Karr, executive director of CSI entific and paranormal beliefs and prac- and a CSI fellow. “With Karen’s hu- tices, including ghosts, aura reading, psy- morous and stimulating contributions chics, medical intuitives, alternative to skepticism and Elizabeth’s achieve- therapies, mediums, faith healing, con- ments in academia, they are welcome spiracy theories, cults, pareidolia (seeing additions.”

Karen Stollznow

Skeptical Inquirer | September / October 2011 7 SI_SI new design masters 7/21/11 12:56 PM Page 8

Play It Again, Sylvia: Failed Predictions on bin Laden, Aliens

BRYAN FARHA

The failed predictions of Sylvia Browne cruelty of Browne telling the parents of bin Laden and alien visitation. have long been chronicled by several then-missing child Shawn Hornbeck On December 28, 2005, I was a skeptics, including this writer. Aside that their son was dead—only to have guest on CNN’s Larry King Live along from the benign daily failed predictions him found alive in 2007 (see “Sylvia with a few alleged psychics, including of relative unimportance, lately Browne Browne’s Biggest Blunder,” SI, May/June Sylvia Browne. Regarding the subject has missed the mark on “the big ones.” 2007). Now we can add the failure of of Osama bin Laden, Browne and I For example, we know about the 2004 her missed predictions about Osama had this brief exchange (from the CNN transcript): FARHA: Well, first of all, let’s put this in perspective here. Last year on Casten Elected a Fellow of CSI The Montel Williams Show, Sylvia predicted that Osama bin Laden is dead. I don’t know if Sylvia still mally wasted and turns it into electricity thinks that or not but I’d sure like and heat. He had earlier founded two to know. other energy cogeneration and recycling BROWNE: Yes, I do. companies. Casten is author of the FARHA: My whole take on this book Turning Off the Heat (Pro me theus is—Okay, very good, well, we’ll Books, 1998) and numerous journal and find out sometime, Sylvia. We’ll magazine articles. He was lead author of find out. the 2009 American Scien tist cover article “Getting the Most from Energy.” He Well, Sylvia, we found out. Bin has won many national awards and has Laden was clearly alive in 2005 and been profiled in science journals and na- lived until May 1, 2011. Another tional magazines. He also serves on the “big” prediction of Browne’s failed. boards of several energy organizations, Then, in 2006, again on The Mon- the Cli mate Insti tute, and the Oregon tel Williams Show, Sylvia made this Climate Trust. prediction: “Aliens will begin to show Casten has long been an outspoken themselves in the year 2010, they advocate of increasing energy efficien- will not harm us, they simply want to cies by reducing energy waste in the see what we are doing to this planet. production of electricity, both to save They will teach us how to use anti- energy and to reduce global greenhouse gravity devices again, such as they did gases that cause global warming. Re - for the pyramids” (from www.sylviabro duc ing emissions this way, he argues, wne.com). can be not only highly beneficial but Now that we are in 2011, we know also economical (see his SI cover article this was yet another “big” prediction “Critical Thinking About Energy,” that failed. In light of repeated failed January/February 2005). The newest fellow of the Committee predictions, do you think Browne’s He is a longtime supporter of the for Skeptical Inquiry is nationally followers will abandon her? We know , having served for the answer to that. Play it again, known energy expert and entrepreneur many years on the executive council and Thomas R. Casten. the board of directors of the Committee Sylvia. Casten has devoted more than three for Skeptical Inquiry and on the board Bryan Farha is professor of behavioral stud- decades to developing decentralized en- of the Center for Inquiry. His concerns ies in education at Oklahoma City University. ergy recycling projects. He is founder include the need for critical thinking He is a CSI scientific and technical consult- and chairman of Recycled Energy De - and greater scientific literacy on scien- ant and is editor of Paranormal Claims: A Crit- velopment, a Westmont, Illinois, com- tific and technological issues essential ical Analysis. pany that captures energy that is nor- to the world’s future.

8 Volume 35 Issue 5 | Skeptical Inquirer SI_SI new design masters 7/21/11 12:56 PM Page 9

[ NEWS AND COMMENT [ FROM THE EDITOR (Continued from page 4) Holly Bobo Still Missing; Psychics Hurt Investigation Insecurity!” (“The Perennial Fringe,” Benjamin Radford Spring 1986; reprinted in the SI anthol- ogy The Hundredth Monkey [Prome - theus Books, 1991]). Holly Bobo, a young nursing student bly ex-military. He might own a black Fact-oriented, evidence-seeking, from Decatur, Tennessee, was ab- leather wallet, and his name might science-loving people like us—who ducted April 13, 2011; she was last contain one or more of the following are very comfortable in the uncer- seen being led into the woods near letters: B, A, J, R, W, or M; his last name tainty and insecurity of fact-based re- her home by an individual wearing might be Glenn. Bobo might be (or liable and reputable information even camouflage. Despite national media might have been at one point) in or if it doesn’t provide us a thumb to suck coverage, extensive police searches near a place that has the number seven or a skirt to hold—are in the minority. and investigation, and an $80,000 re- associated with it, indicating an ad- (And none of us is perfect in this re- ward, neither Bobo nor her abductor dress, a highway number, or possibly gard either.) Most people, and again have been found. Police are no longer the distance from some landmark. One few will admit it, really want that actively searching for her and have no psychic said she believed that the lyrics comforting stuff: Yes, there must be suspects, though the investigation re- of the Neil Diamond song “September life after death. Yes, we can get well mains open and ongoing. Morning” contained important clues to from simple off-the-shelf remedies, The Bobo case was plagued by mis - finding Bobo. untested or not, without resorting to information from the start; early re- It’s not clear how police are sup- complicated modern medicine. Sure, ports falsely suggested that Bobo’s posed to use this jumble of random as- we can continue pumping 30.6 billion brother Clint was a suspect in her dis- sociations, images, numbers, letters, and metric tons of carbon dioxide green- appearance. Police have complained feelings provided by psychics. This in- house gas into the atmosphere per that well-meaning individuals have formation is so vague, general, and con- year (the recently announced record been disseminating misinformation tradictory that it is completely useless. figure for 2010) without changing it. and false leads about the case, making The case even attracted the attention No, we’re not really part of the animal their job much more difficult and of TV psychic Carla Baron, who said kingdom descended from any of those doing far more harm than good. that a friend of the Bobo family had ugly, old, apelike creatures, and, no, we contacted her on their behalf. Baron don’t have any DNA in common with One psychic said she was part of the TruTV show Haunting slime mold. We’re more special than Evi dence, in which she and two other that. Yes, yes, we must really be in some believed that the lyrics of way the center of the universe. There the Neil Diamond song investigators tackled real-life unsolved murders. The show was cancelled after has to be some great, essential cosmic “September Morning” twenty-two episodes without any of meaning! It’s all about us, isn’t it? contained important the cases having been solved; two were We crave information that reinforces clues to finding Bobo. later closed through police work (see our beliefs. All other information takes Rad ford, “New Psy chic Detective (Un) - a back seat or even gets tossed in the trunk. Research about the brain has pro- Reality Series: Haunting Evidence,” SI, duced a litany of new studies showing Sep tember/October 2006). Baron has why that is so. Dozens of self-proclaimed psychics said that the Bobo family later chose So, unless we find a way to overcome have offered hundreds of incorrect, not to seek her information on Holly’s our very human tendencies to seek out vague, and often contradictory tips. death on the advice of the police, who and find information that supports our Here’s just a sample of information and Baron be lieves were “terrified to hear deep-seated beliefs wh ile disregarding leads offered by psychics on this case: what I might have to say” about the ab- Bobo’s abductor might have a scar on all information to the contrary, the duction. The fact that psychic detec- his forehead, a rash on his elbow, or a question of how to filter through the tives have a zero percent track record bite mark on his hand. He might work exa- and zettabytes of “information” out of success locating missing persons from home as a graphic designer and there to find reliable facts is more of might also have something to do with long for the 1950s. His hair might be a secondary information-processing it. (For more on Baron, see “Carla dark brown, blond, or salt-and-pepper. prob lem. The primary problem is that Baron, Psychic Detective? Not Quite,” He might be clean shaven, or he might one core, incontestably human fact SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Sep tem ber have a moustache. He might be a Scor- about ourselves. /October 2006.) pio. He is either scrawny, of medium KENDRICK FRAZIER build, or stocky and muscular—possi- —Benjamin Radford

Skeptical Inquirer | September / October 2011 9