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Comet Elenin Will Not Destroy Earth This Year DAVID MORRISON

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Comet Elenin Will Not Destroy Earth This Year DAVID MORRISON SI Sept. Oct 11_SI new design masters 7/26/11 1:09 PM Page 5 [ NEWS AND COMMENT Comet Elenin Will Not Destroy Earth This Year DAVID MORRISON y r o In the middle of the gathering Internet t a v r fear about the doomsday of December e s b O 12, 2012, there have been two new apoc- n i a t alyptic distractions. First there was a n u o M widely reported prediction by fundamen- e l b talist preacher Harold Camp ing (the a T L P founder of “family radio” in Cali fornia) J / s r that the end of the world would begin on e m o S May 21, 2011. Camp ing claim ed that on d n a this date the good people would be trans- , s k c ported to heaven in what is called “the i H , n Rapture.” It now seems clear that this did a m s not happen or that the number of good s i e people is vanishingly small. W In addition, there is growing fear of Comet Elenin on May 5, 2011, when it was 170 million miles from Earth. It is nothing unusual and no dramatic events are expected. newly discovered Comet Elenin, which is variously predicted to collide with Earth exerted strong gravitational or electro- Elenin. Some websites have substituted in October 2011 or to in duce massive magnetic effects on our planet. When photos of the much brighter comet Wild earthquakes and pole shifts from its grav- scientists pointed out that this little 2 and called it Elenin. In an unusual step, itational or magnetic perturbation of our comet can have no measurable gravita- NASA/JPL released a comment by Don planet. Some even claim that Elenin is tional or tidal effect, and that comets do Yeomans, NASA’s top comet scientist, not a comet at all but a massive brown not have magnetic fields, the story who de scribed Elenin as “kind of wimpy.” dwarf star. shifted. For people who are convinced the He noted that we will “probably need a What are the facts? C2010 X1 Elenin comet did cause the earthquakes, this good pair of binoculars, clear skies, and a (to give its full name) is a long-period proves that Elenin is not a comet at all dark, secluded location to see it even on comet that takes about 10,000 years but a much more massive (and danger- its brightest night.” to complete one orbit around the Sun. ous) interloper. Other websites suggest that the comet Russian amateur astron omer Leonid The fact is that Elenin fits the defini- is accompanied by a giant UFO that con- Elenin discovered it with a robotic tele- tion of a comet: It is a solar system object trols its orbit. They assert that aliens are scope in New Mexico on December 10, with an elongated (eccentric) orbit that is steering the comet into collision with 2010. It reaches peri helion (when it will outgassing a tenuous atmosphere (coma) Earth. These claims sound like the ru- be closest to the Sun) on September 10, and tail as it ap proaches the Sun. Comets mors that surrounded Comet Hale-Bopp 2011, and will be closest to Earth on Oc- are de fined operationally by the presence in 1997. It, too, was said to be accompa- tober 16 at a distance of thirty-five mil- of the visible coma and tail. It is clear that nied by a UFO, and many people bought lion kilometers, approximately one hun- Elenin cannot possibly be a massive ob- telescopes so that they could watch it. As dred times farther than the distance ject like a brown dwarf. If it were, it would we all remember, the Heaven’s Gate cult between Earth and the Moon. The comet not have a coma or tail because the gas interpreted the arrival of Hale-Bopp as a is a tiny object, roughly five kilometers in cannot escape from an object with sub- signal for their mass suicide, thinking diameter, and (like all comets) it is visible stantial gravity. In addition, if it were they would be transported to the accom- only because it outgases an extensive, ten- massive we would be seeing its gravita- panying spaceship. While there is noth- uous atmosphere as it is warmed by the tional influence on the orbits of the plan- ing to fear from Comet Elenin, perhaps Sun. Its mass is less than one-billionth ets, especially Mars and Earth, but there we should be afraid of how some people the mass of Earth. Although several am- is no change in these orbits. Finally, if it are reacting to it. were a brown dwarf it would have been ateur astronomers are regularly photo - Related Articles graphing the comet, it has remained faint easily detected in the various previous as- through June 2011, and it may never be- tronomical surveys, including the recent David Morrison’s “The Myth of Nibiru and the WISE infrared mission, even when it was End of the World in 2012” (SI, September/ come visible to the naked eye. October 2008), “Update on the Nibiru 2012 One of the frequent claims on con- still in the outer solar system. ‘Doomsday’” (SI, November/December 2009), spiracy theory websites is that this comet Ironically, the inconspicuous nature of and “The 2012 Doomsday Hoax: Update II” (SI, shifted Earth’s axis by three degrees in this comet plays into some of the conspir- July/August 2011). See also Robert Sheaffer’s acy theories. There are many claims that “2012: Peter Gersten’s ‘Leap of Faith’” (SI, February 2010, precipitating the Chile July/August 2011) and the third part of his col- earthquake. Some believe that it also NASA and the news media are suppress- umn in this issue, p. 33. caused a larger pole shift that triggered ing information about Elenin. When the Japan earthquakes of March 2011. NASA sent a video on disaster prepared- David Morrison is a planetary scientist, a NASA ness to its employees in June, I began to senior scientist, and a Committee for Skeptical Ignoring plate tectonics as the cause of Inquiry fellow. earthquakes, they suggest that the comet hear claims that this was to prepare us for Skeptical Inquirer | September / October 2 01 1 5 SI_SI new design masters 7/21/11 12:56 PM Page 6 Power Balance, Down and Out in Australia RICHARD SAUNDERS “frequencies” that can improve the bal- ceived power of the subject.) The video ance, strength, and flexibility of the has had more than one hundred thou- wearer. Many sporting stars continue to sand views, and judging by the e-mails this day to promote the band. (See Har- I have received, it has stopped many riet Hall, “Power Balance Tech nology: people from falling for the scam. Pseudoscientific Silliness Suck ers Card- Then I visited the office of CHOICE Carrying Surfers,” SI, May/June 2010.) magazine, an independent consumer In late 2009 I was asked to appear on watchdog, and suggested they consider the Australian television news show doing a report on Power Balance. I ex - Today Tonight to examine the claims of plained the tricks used and advised on the Power Balance company by putting testing. They, true to their guidelines, none other than Tom O’Dowd, the tested the product without further in - Australian distributor of the product, through a series of tests. At first, when volvement by me or the Power Balance O’Dowd demonstrated the effect of the company. Their conclusion was that the hologram by pushing down on the out- product did not perform as claimed. stretched arms of six volunteers, the vol- They awarded the Power Balance band unteers found that they had consider- their Shonky Award, given for the worst ably more strength to resist once they scams and rip-offs, in 2010. This event had the hologram on them or near was covered by the media and sent out a p o l them. O’Dowd reported that he was strong message to the Australian public n u D very happy with the volunteers and all (see http://tinyurl.com/5rv987a). l e a h was working as he predicted. I had the With all the negative publicity and c a R : impression that O’Dowd sincerely be- complaints, the government had to act. o t o h lieved in the product. P In December 2010 the Australian Com - Then I produced one of the most petition and Consumer Commis sion Richard Saunders with Power Balance wrist bands, valuable and powerful tools in the skep- which he demonstrated don’t work. (ACCC) ordered Power Balance Aus- tical arsenal: the humble six-sided die. tralia to refund all customers who felt Out of sight of O’Dowd (and me) the they had been ripped off. ACCC chair- roll of the die decided which one of the man Graeme Samuel said in a state- We have all heard the expression “two volunteers would have the hologram ment: “Power Balance has admitted that steps forward, one step back.” This is all slipped into his or her back pocket. As there is no credible scientific basis for too often the story with skeptical ac- the national television audience saw, tivism, and it can even be a case of “two O’Dowd (and thus Power Balance) the claims and therefore no reasonable steps forward, one step to the side, three failed five out of five times to identify grounds for making representations steps back” and so on.
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