STEVEN PINKER Published by the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry on Violence Decline C I –T

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Mind Over Metal? | Psychic Failures in Boston Bombing | Degrees of Impossibility | Conspiracy Beliefs

the Magazine for Science and Reason Vol. 37 No. 4 | July/August 2013

Acupuncture Advocacy: Faulty Thinking and Self-Delusion

The Queen Mary ‘Ghost’ Charade

Plagiarism in New Age Books

The ‘Psychology Is Science, Not Witchcraft’ Campaign

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STEVEN PINKER Published by the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry on Violence Decline C I –T

Ronald A. Lindsay, President and CEO Massimo Polidoro, Research Fellow Bar ry Karr, Ex ec u tive Di rect or Benjamin Radford, Research Fellow Joe Nickell, Senior Research Fellow Richard Wiseman, Research Fellow www.csicop.org

James E. Alcock*, psychol ogist, York Univ., Toron to Thomas Gilov ich, psychol ogist, Cornell Univ. Jay M. Pasachoff, Field Memorial Professor of Marcia Angell, MD, former ed itor-in-chief, David H. Gorski, cancer surgeon and researcher at Astronomy and director of the Hopkins New England Journal of Med icine Barbara Ann Karmanos Cancer Institute and chief Observatory, Williams College Kimball Atwood IV, MD, physician; author; of breast surgery section, Wayne State Univer- John Paulos, math e mati cian, Temple Univ. Newton, MA sity School of Medicine. Clifford A. Pickover, scientist, author, editor, Stephen Barrett, MD, psychi atrist; author; consum er Wendy M. Grossman, writer; founder and first editor, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center. advo cate, Allen town, PA The Skeptic magazine (UK) Massimo Pigliucci, professor of philosophy, Willem Betz, MD, professor of medicine, Univ. of Susan Haack, Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts and City Univ. of New York–Lehman College Brussels Scien ces, professor of philos ophy and professor Steven Pinker, cogni tive scien tist, Harvard Univ. of Law, Univ. of Miami Irving Bieder man, psychol ogist, Univ. of Philip Plait, astronomer; lecturer; writer Harriet Hall*, MD, family physician; investigator, Southern CA Massi mo Polid oro, science writer; author; exec utive Puyallup, WA Sandra Blakeslee, science writer; author; New York direct or of CICAP, It aly Times science correspondent C.E.M. Hansel, psychol ogist, Univ. of Wales Anthony R. Pratkanis, professor of psychology, David J. Helfand, professor of astronomy, Susan Blackmore, visit ing lectur er, Univ. of the West Univ. of CA, Santa Cruz of England, Bristol Columbia Univ. Terence M. Hines, prof. of psychology, Pace Univ., Benjamin Radford, investigator; research fellow, Mark Boslough, physicist, Sandia National Laborato- Committee for Skeptical Inquiry ries, Albuquerque, NM Pleasantville, NY. James “The Amazing” Randi, magician; CSICOP Henri Broch, phys icist, Univ. of Nice, France Douglas R. Hofstad ter, profes sor of human under stand ing and cogni tive science, Indi ana Univ. founding member; founder, James Randi Jan Harold Brunvand, folklor ist; profes sor emer itus Educational Foundation of English, Univ. of Utah Gerald Holton, Mallinc krodt Profes sor of Physics and Milton Rosen berg, psychol ogist, Univ. of Chica go Mario Bunge, philos opher, McGill Univ., Montreal profes sor of histo ry of science, Harvard Univ. Ray Hyman*, psychol ogist, Univ. of Or egon Walla ce Sampson, MD, clin ical profes sor of med i cine, Robert T. Carroll, emeritus professor of philoso- Stanford Univ.; edi tor, Scien tif ic Review of phy, Sacramento City College; writer Stuart D. Jordan, NASA astrophysicist emeritus; Alter na tive Med icine Sean B. Carroll, molecular geneticist; vice president science advisor to Center for Inquiry Office of for science education, Howard Hughes Medical Public Policy, Washington, DC Amar deo Sarma* , chairman, GWUP, Germa ny Institute, Madison, WI Barry Karr, executive director, Committee for Richard Saunders, president, Australian Thomas R. Casten, energy expert; founder and Skeptical Inquiry, Amherst, New York Skeptics; educator; investigator; podcaster; chairman, Recycled Energy Development, Law rence M. Krauss, foundation professor, School Sydney, Australia Westmont, IL of Earth and Space Exploration and Physics Dept.; Joe Schwarcz, director, McGill Office for Science John R. Cole, anthro pol ogist; ed itor, Nation al director, Origins Initiative, Arizona State Univ. and Society Center for Science Ed uca tion Harry Kroto, professor of chemistry and Euge nie C. Scott*, physi cal anthro pol ogist; exec utive K.C. Cole, science writer; author; professor, biochemistry, Florida State Univ.; Nobel laureate direct or, Nation al Center for Science Ed uca tion Univ. of Southern California’s Annenberg Edwin C. Krupp, astron omer; direct or, Robert Sheaffer, science writer School of Journalism Griffith Obser va to ry, Los Angeles, CA Elie A. Shneour, bi ochem ist; author; president and Freder ick Crews, liter ary and cultur al critic; profes sor Lawrence Kusche, science writer research director, Bios ys tems Research Insti tute, emer itus of English, Univ. of CA, Berkeley Leon Leder man, emer itus direct or, Fermi lab; La Jolla, CA Richard Dawkins, zool ogist, Oxford Univ. Nobel laure ate in physics Seth Shostak, senior astronomer, SETI Institute, Geof frey Dean, techni cal ed itor, Perth, Austral ia Scott O. Lil ien feld*, psychol ogist, Emory Univ., Mountain View, CA Cornel is de Jager , profes sor of astro phys ics, Atlanta, GA Simon Singh, science writer; broadcaster; UK Univ. of Utrecht, the Nether lands Lin Zixin, former ed itor, Science and Dick Smith, film pro duc er; pub lish er; Ter rey Hills, Dan i el C. Den nett, Aus tin B. Fletch er Pro fes sor Technol ogy Daily (China) N.S.W., Aus tral ia of Phi los o phy and di rect or of Cen ter for Cog nitive Jere Lipps, Muse um of Pale on tol ogy, Univ. of CA, Stud ies, Tufts Uni v. Keith E. Stanovich, cognitive psychologist; Berke ley professor of human development and applied Ann Druyan, writer and producer; CEO, Eliz abeth Loftus*, profes sor of psychol ogy, psychology, Univ. of Toronto Cosmos Studios, Ithaca, NY Univ. of CA, Irvine Vic tor J. Sten ger, emer i tus pro fes sor of phys ics Sanal Edamaruku, president, Indian Rationalist David Marks, psychol ogist, City Univ., London and as tron o my, Univ. of Ha waii; ad junct pro fes- Association and Rationalist International Mario Mendez-Acos ta, journal ist and science writer, sor of phi los o phy, Univ. of CO Edzard Ernst, professor, Complementary Medicine, Mex ico City Karen Stollznow*, linguist; skeptical investigator; Peninsula Medical School, Universities of Exeter Kenneth R. Miller, professor of biology, writer; podcaster and Plymouth, Exeter, UK Brown Univ. Kenneth Feder, profes sor of anthro pol ogy, Jill Cor nell Tar ter, as tron o mer, SE TI In sti tute, Marvin Minsky, profes sor of media arts and scien - Moun tain View, CA Central Connec ti cut State Univ. ces, M.I.T. Car ol Tav ris, psy chol o gist and au thor, Los Ange les, CA Barbara Forrest, professor of philosophy, David Morri son, space scien tist, NASA Ames Re- SE Louisiana Univ. search Center David E. Thomas*, phys i cist and mathe mati cian, Socorro, NM Andrew Fraknoi, astron omer, Foothill College, Richard A. Muller, profes sor of physics, Univ. of CA, Los Altos Hills, CA Berkeley Neil deGras se Tyson, astro phys icist and direct or, Hayden Plan etar ium, New York City Kend rick Fra zi er*, sci ence writer; ed i tor, Joe Nickell, senior research fellow, CSI S I Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician, Waalre, Indre Viskontas, cognitive neuroscientist, tv and pod- Christopher C. French, professor, Department The Netherlands cast host, and opera singer, San Francisco, CA of Psychology, and head of the Anomalistic Lee Nisbet, philos opher, Medaille College Mari lyn vos Savant, Parade mag azine Psychology Research Unit, Goldsmiths contrib ut ing ed itor College, Univ. of London Steven Novella*, MD, assistant professor of neurology, Yale Univ. School of Medicine Steven Weinberg, profes sor of physics and astron - Yv es Gal i fret, executive secretary, o my, Univ. of Texas at Austin; Nobel laure ate l’Union Rationaliste Bill Nye, sci ence ed u ca tor and tele vi sion host, Nye Labs E.O. Wilson, Univ. profes sor emer itus, organismic and Luigi Garlaschelli, chemist, Università di Pavia evolutionary biology, Harvard Univ. (Italy); research fellow of CICAP, James E. Oberg, science writer the Italian skeptics group Irm gard Oe pen, pro fes sor of med i cine (re tired), Richard Wis eman, psychol ogist, Univ. Maryanne Garry, professor, School of Psychol- Mar burg, Ger ma ny of Hertford shire, England ogy, Victoria Univ. of Wellington, New Zealand Loren Pankratz, psychol ogist, Or egon Health Benjamin Wolozin*, professor, Department of Murray Gell-Mann, profes sor of physics, Santa Fe Scien ces Univ. Pharmacology, Boston Univ. School of Medicine Insti tute; Nobel laure ate Robert L. Park, professor of physics, Univ. of Maryland Marvin Zelen, statis ti cian, Harvard Univ. * Mem ber, CSI Ex ec u tive Coun cil (Af fil i a tions giv en for iden ti fi ca tion on ly.) Skep ti cal In quir er July/August 2013 | Vol. 37, No. 4 ARTICLES COLUMNS 27 The Chelyabinsk Event FROM THE EDITOR of February 15, 2013 Violence, Here and Above ...... 4 DAVID MORRISON, ALAN HARRIS, NEWS AND COMMENT AND MARK BOSLOUGH Do You Believe That? Poll Zeroes in on Conspiracy Beliefs/Goat Sacrificed for Chicago Cubs Curse/Sylvia Browne 32 Blunders Again, Telling Mother of Kidnap Down the Garden Path: Faulty Victim Amanda Barry She Was Dead/ Thinking and Self-Delusion British Businessman Sentenced in Bogus ‘Bomb Detector’ Scam ...... 5 HARRIET HALL SKEPTICAL INQUIREE 36 Psychic Failure and the Boston Steven Pinker on Violence Marathon Bombing BENJAMIN RADFORD ...... 9 AN INTERVIEW BY INDRE VISKONTAS AND CHRIS MOONEY INVES TI GA TIVE FILES Mind Over Metal 42 JOE NICK ELL ...... 12 The Queen Mary THINKING ABOUT SCIENCE Is Not Haunted Mathematical Explanations (But I Understand Why and Degrees of Impossibility MAS SI MO PI GLI UC CI ...... 15 You Think She Is) JOHN CHAMPION NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD The Mystery of the Sicilian Avengers 45 MASSIMO POLIDORO ...... 17 Investigating Plagiarism PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS in New Age Books UFOs in the Desert, 2013 ROBERT SHEAFFER ...... 20 BENJAMIN RADFORD SCIENCE WATCH 50 Why Gay and Lesbian? The ‘Psychology Is A New Proposal KENNETH W. KRAUSE...... 24 Science, Not Witchcraft’ Campaign NEW AND NOTABLE BOOKS ...... 58 TOMASZ WITKOWSKI LET TERS TO THE ED I TOR ...... 62 AND MACIEJ ZATONSKI THE LAST LAUGH ...... 66

FORUM 54 Bringing Bayes into Predictions PAUL G. BROWN...... 59 Grumble Grumble The Signal and the Noise: Why KEITH TAYLOR So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don’t FOLLOW-UP by Nate Silver

55 BOOK REVIEWS The Biography of America’s Vindication of My Lake Monster Notorious ‘Insulting’ Do You Believe in Magic? BENJAMIN RADFORD...... 61 HARRIET HALL...... 57 Letter to UFOlogist The Untold Story of Champ: A Social J. Allen Hynek Do You Believe in Magic? The Sense History of America’s Loch Ness Monster GARY P. POSNER and Nonsense of Alternative Medicine by Robert E. Bartholomew by Paul Offit, MD [ FROM THE EDITOR Skep ti cal In quir er™ THE MAG A ZINE FOR SCI ENCE AND REA SON

EDI TOR Kend rick Fra zi er EDI TO RI AL BOARD James E. Al cock, Violence, Here and Above Harriet Hall, Ray Hyman, Scott O. Lilienfeld, Elizabeth Loftus, Joe Nickell, Steven Novella, Am ar deo Sar ma, Eugenie C. Scott, Karen Stollznow, David E. Thomas, teven Pinker is one of our nation’s most illustrious public intellectuals. Leonard Tramiel, Benjamin Wolozin In an insightful interview in this issue he eloquently explores the almost CONSULT ING EDI TORS Sus an J. Black more, counterintuitive notion that despite all the violent news that bombards us Ken neth L. Fed er, Barry Karr, E.C. Krupp, S Da vid F. Marks, Jay M. Pasachoff, daily, rates of violence worldwide are actually at historic lows. Rich ard Wis e man I’ve been fascinated by this argument and its implications ever since Pinker’s CONTRIB UT ING EDI TORS Austin Dacey, D.J. Grothe, Kenneth W. Krause, Chris Moon ey, David Morrison, book The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined came out, but James E. Oberg, Rob ert Sheaf fer, Karen Stollznow this is our first opportunity to deal with it in our pages and in his words. I think DEPUTY EDI TOR Ben ja min Rad ford you’ll find it provocative reading. Pinker is a longtime Fellow of our Committee MANA GING EDI TOR Julia Lavarnway for Skeptical Inquiry. We published an adaptation from his book The Blank ART DIRECT OR Christo pher Fix Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature in our March/April 2003 issue. PRODUC TION Paul E. Loynes ASSISTANT EDITOR Sean Lachut Pinker, neuroscientist and CSI Fellow Indre Viskontas, and science jour- WEBMASTER Matthew Licata nalist and SI contributing editor Chris Mooney conducted the interview be- PUBLISH ER’S REPRE SENT A TIVE Bar ry Karr fore a live audience at the 2013 annual meeting of the American Association CORPO RATE COUNSEL Brenton N. VerPloeg for the Advancement of Science. It was originally for our Center for Inquiry’s BUSINESS MANA GER Pa tri cia Beau champ Point of Inquiry podcast and is downloadable there. For this published version FISCAL OFFI CER Paul Pau lin in SI, Pinker, a careful, conscientious writer, made many small improvements SUBSCRIPTION DATA MANAGER Jacalyn Mohr STAFF Melissa Braun, Cheryl Catania, for added clarity. Roe Giambrone, Antho ny San ta Lu cia, * * * Diane Tobin, Vance Vi grass COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR Paul Fidalgo The half-megaton explosion caused by a sixty-foot-wide mass from the asteroid INQUIRY MEDIA PRODUC TIONS Thom as Flynn belt violently slamming into the atmosphere over Chelyabinsk, Russia, in Febru- DIRECT OR OF LIBRAR IES Tim o thy S. Binga ary was an extraordinary, once-in-a-century event. Nothing else like it has been DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR Alan Kinniburgh experienced since the Tunguska event of 1908, over Siberia. But this one was The SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER is the offi cial journal of the widely witnessed and videotaped. In this issue three prominent scientists whose Com mittee for Skeptical Inquiry, specialties include such cosmic impacts describe what happened and consider the an in ter na tion al or gan i za tion. The S I (ISSN 0194-6730) is pub lished lessons and probabilities of its coincidental, but not connected, relationship in time bimonth ly by the Commit tee for Skeptical Inquiry, 3965 with the nearby passage of asteroid 2012 DA14. David Morrison, Alan Harris, Rensch Road, Amherst, NY 14228. Printed in U.S.A. Peri od- i cals post age paid at Buf fa lo, NY, and at ad dition al mail ing and Mark Boslough (all frequent SI contributors) drafted this article shortly after offi ces. Subscrip tion prices: one year (six issues), $35; two years, $60; three years, $84; sin gle is sue, $4.95. the historic event. By the time it got to us, Boslough was already in Chelyabinsk, Cana di an and foreign orders: Payment in U.S. funds drawn where he served as the main scientist-on-the-ground for a superb special one-hour on a U.S. bank must accom pa ny orders; please add US$10 per year for shipping. Cana di an and foreign custom ers are NOVA documentary about the meteor strike that aired March 27. encour aged to use Visa or Master Card. Canada Publications Mail Agreement No. 41153509. Return undeliverable Ca- * * * nadian addresses to: IMEX, P.O. Box 4332, Station Rd., I want to call your attention to a welcome statement issued by twenty-two sec- Toronto, ON M5W 3J4. In quir ies from the me dia and the pub lic about the work of ular and humanist organizations, including the Center for Inquiry. Titled “An the Com mit tee should be made to Barry Karr, Executive Director, CSI, P.O. Box 703, Amherst, NY 14226-0703. 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Do You Believe That? Poll Zeroes in on Conspiracy Beliefs

K F

Conspiracy thinking seems almost endemic today. People who see con- spiracies everywhere seem to have out- of-whack information filters, allowing Q1 Do you believe global warming is a hoax, or not? Q9 Do you believe the Bush administration in- ideas of conspiracy to easily enter their Do...... 37% tentionally misled the public about the possibil- minds but keeping critical analysis of Do not ...... 51% ity of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq to Not sure ...... 12% promote the Iraq War, or not? those same ideas out. We’ve even recently Do...... 44% seen that a paper by psychologists about Q2 Do you believe Osama bin Laden is still alive, Do not ...... 45% conspiracy thinking can cause respon- or not? Not sure ...... 12% dents to engage in still more of it (SI, Do...... 6% Do not ...... 83% Q10 Do you believe aliens exist, or not? May/June 2013, pp. 7–9). Not sure ...... 11% Do...... 29% Do not ...... 47% Q3 Do you believe a UFO crashed at Roswell, Not sure ...... 24% New Mexico, in 1947, and the US government covered it up, or not? Q11 Do you believe the CIA was instrumental A new nationwide poll finds Do...... 21% in distributing crack cocaine into America’s Do not ...... 47% inner cities in the 1980s, or not? some interesting insights into Not sure ...... 32% Do...... 14% the acceptance of different Do not ...... 55% Q4 Do you believe that a secretive power elite Not sure ...... 30% conspiracy theories. Some with a globalist agenda is conspiring to eventually rule the world through an authoritarian world Q12 Do you believe the government adds fluoride ideas are much more widely government, or New World Order, or not? to our water supply, not for dental health rea- Do...... 28% sons, but for other, more sinister reasons, or not? believed than others. Do not ...... 46% Do...... 9% Not sure ...... 25% Do not ...... 74% Not sure ...... 17% Q5 Do you believe Saddam Hussein was involved in the September 11th, 2001, Q13 Do you believe that shape-shifting reptilian attacks on America, or not? people control our world by taking on human A new nationwide poll finds some Do...... 28% form and gaining political power to manipulate interesting insights into the acceptance Do not ...... 51% our societies, or not? Not sure ...... 22% Do...... 4% of different conspiracy theories. Some Do not ...... 88% ideas are much more widely believed Q6 Do you believe there is a link between Not sure ...... 7% than others. In some cases—as with childhood vaccines and autism, or not? the Iraq war or global warming—the Do...... 20% Q14 Do you believe that Lee Harvey Oswald Do not ...... 46% acted alone in killing President Kennedy, or was differences fall along partisan political Not sure ...... 34% there some larger conspiracy at work? lines, but some of the more bizarre Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone...... 25% ideas provoke bipartisan skepticism. Q7 Do you believe the moon landing There was some larger conspiracy at work..... 51% The poll by Public Policy Polling was faked, or not? Not sure ...... 24% Do...... 7% (www.publicpolicypolling.com) of Do not ...... 84% Q15 Do you believe in Bigfoot or Sasquatch, or not? 1,247 registered American voters at Not sure ...... 9% Do...... 14% the end of March 2013 found that 28 Do not ...... 72% Q8 Do you believe President Barack Obama Not sure ...... 14% percent of voters believe that a secretive is the anti-Christ, or not? power elite with a globalist agenda is Do...... 13% Q16 Do you believe media or the government conspiring to eventually rule the world Do not ...... 73% adds secret mind-controlling technology to through an authoritarian world gov- Not sure ...... 13% television broadcast signals, or not? Do...... 15% ernment, or New World Order. That Do not ...... 70% idea was believed by 34 percent of Not sure ...... 15% Republicans and 35 percent of inde- pendents, compared with just 15 per-

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 5 cent of Democrats. cross-tabulated by political affiliation Goat Sacrificed for Not surprisingly, the poll found shows interesting variations. For many Chicago Cubs Curse there is an intense partisan divide conspiracy ideas political affiliation B R on whether or not global warm- doesn’t affect the results. This is true, ing is a hoax. Fifty-eight percent of for example, with the Roswell crashed Republicans agreed that it is a conspir- saucer claim, the fake moon landing acy; 77 percent of Democrats disagree. belief, belief in Bigfoot, and the belief Fifty-one percent of Americans that vaccines cause autism. But belief in believe a larger conspiracy was at work in the John F. Kennedy assassination a New World Order is held by 45 per- fifty years ago this November; just cent of those who describe themselves 25 percent think Lee Harvey Oswald as “very conservative” but only 12 per- acted alone. cent of those who describe themselves as “very liberal.” On the other side, the idea that the government allowed the September 11, 2001, attacks to happen is believed by only 8 percent of Repub- licans but is believed by 14 percent of Do you find the results as Democrats. bad or worse than expected? Gender differences show up on a Or do you perhaps find some few questions. Thirty-nine percent of In early April, an unknown man deliv- comfort that at least some men—but a slightly smaller proportion ered a smelly box addressed to Tom of women (35 percent)—believe global Ricketts, the owner of the Chicago bizarre beliefs are disbelieved warming is a hoax. Twenty-four per- Cubs baseball team. Inside was a de- by large margins? cent of men and 19 percent of women caying goat’s head. Who would send believe a UFO crashed at Roswell. a severed goat’s head to Wrigley Stadium? A confused Satanist? An Thirty-five percent of men but just 21 angry mobster trying to send a threat percent of women believe in the New but unable to find a horse? World Order. Men and women are No, it was a response to a sup- equal in the belief that vaccines cause posed “Billy Goat” curse that dates Twenty-nine percent believe aliens autism (20 percent of both genders be- back to 1945 when a man named Bill exist, and 21 percent believe a UFO lieve that is true, but women are a little “Billy Goat” Sianis had a pet goat crashed at Roswell in 1947. But just 5 less certain about the truth; 30 percent (named Murphy) that was refused percent believe that Paul McCartney of men but 38 percent of women are entry to a Cubs game. Offended by the died and was secretly replaced by the “not sure”). affront, according to legend he cursed Beatles in 1966, and just 7 percent of Do you find the results as bad or the club with the words, “The Cubs voters think the moon landing was worse than expected? Or do you per- ain’t gonna win no more!” faked. haps find some comfort that at least Sure enough, the Cubs lost the next game and have not won a World “Even crazy conspiracy theories are some bizarre beliefs are disbelieved by subject to partisan polarization, espe- Series in over a century despite many large margins? In either case, conspir- cially when there are political overtones fan attempts over the years to lift the acy thinking seems likely to continue involved,” said Dean Debnam, pres- curse (some of them involving goats). ident of Public Policy Polling. “But to taint our public discourse and to stay While some regard the curse as merely most Americans reject the wackier a big part of the misinformation and a silly superstition, many longtime ideas out there about fake moon land- pseudoscience that skeptics deal with fans take it very seriously. Belief in the ings and shape-shifting lizards.” for a long time to come. Billy Goat curse set the stage for what The accompanying box shows some happened in 2003 when a Cubs fan Kendrick Frazier of the specific results of the poll. is editor of the S- named Steve Bartman reached for— A look at the more detailed data  I. and deflected—a foul ball in Game 6

6 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT

of the National League Championship Series that might have been caught by an outfielder. Bartman, who was widely blamed for the Cubs loss by both fans and the news media, received harassment and death threats. In an ESPN documentary film about that incident titled Catching Hell, Yale Professor Benjamin Polak, who analyzed the Cubs’s chances of winning at each stage of the game, points out that Bartman’s catch only decreased the team’s chance of winning by 3 percent; far worse errors were made by the Cubs players themselves throughout that game. Yet many players and fans had been looking for a bad omen, some superstitious sign that their dreams of a long-awaited vic- tory would be spoiled—and Bartman Thomas Barrat / Shutterstock.com was it. As Polak notes, any team of their success must have something to are important to athletic success, and professional athletes should be able do with circumstances beyond their if a player loses confidence for any to easily overcome a 3 percent deficit abilities. Some poker players will wear reason—including a real or imagined introduced by a random event like fan the same “lucky” shirts they were wear- interference. curse—it can affect their performance Superstitions are common in ing when they hit it big, and so on. in very real ways. Either way, the sports and competitions; for example, However, the Billy Goat curse might sooner the Cubs win a championship, some professional tennis players eat be real in one way: Curses some- the sooner goats can rest easier. exactly the same meals and stay in times work because people believe in the same rooms at the same hotels them—the same reason that placebos Benjamin Radford is the deputy editor following a big win. They think that sometimes work. Confidence and focus of the S I. Sylvia Browne Blunders Again, Telling Mother of Kidnap Victim Amanda Barry She Was Dead B R

Amanda Berry, who was sixteen-years- ance Amanda Berry’s mother, Louwana old when she went missing in 2003, Miller, held out hope that her daugh- was rescued on May 6 from an unas- ter would be found alive and returned suming house in Cleveland where she to her: Maybe Amanda ran away from and others are believed to have been home and would come back some day held captive for up to a decade. Berry or was in an accident and somehow lost broke through a door and called for her memory. Miller endured the terri- help and two other missing women, ble limbo of not knowing, holding out Gina DeJesus and Michele Knight, hope against the odds but not wanting were also rescued from the home. The to believe the worst. home’s owner, Ariel Castro, and his As Plain Dealer writer Stephan two brothers were arrested in connec- Hudak noted, “Desperate for any clue tion with the case. as to Amanda Berry’s whereabouts, and Tragically, a high-profile psychic tired of unanswered questions from au- told Berry’s mother that she was dead. thorities, Miller turned to a psychic on

Randy Miramontez / Shutterstock.com For nearly two years after her disappear- Montel Williams’ nationally syndicated

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 7 television show. The psychic said what that their son was dead, also on Montel abducted at the age of eleven in 1991 the FBI, police and Miller hadn’t. ‘She’s Williams’s show. His body, she said, and discovered living in a virtual prison not alive, honey,’ Sylvia Browne told would be found in a wooded area near in the backyard of a couple’s home in her matter-of-factly. ‘Your daughter’s two large boulders, and he had been Antioch, California, eighteen years not the kind who wouldn’t call.’ With kidnapped by a very tall, “dark-skinned later. She had been confined, horrif- those blunt words, Browne persuaded man” with dreadlocks. ically abused, and raped, even giving Miller to accept a grim probability that In fact, Hornbeck and another boy birth to her captor’s children, who has become more likely with each pass- were found very much alive five years were also kept prisoner and isolated. ing day.” Miller returned home dev- later on January 16, 2007, in the home Hundreds of psychics gave informa- astated, and she died two years later, of a Caucasian, non-dreadlocked Mis- believing that her daughter was dead. souri man named Michael Devlin who tion about Dugard’s location while she Sylvia Browne was horribly wrong, had kidnapped them. Every detail of was missing—and every one turned telling a grieving mother that her child Browne’s psychic vision was wrong, out to be completely wrong. Psychics was dead when she was not. And it’s including the most important: that make many claims of success, but they not the first time. In an eerily similar Shawn was dead. are conspicuously unable to find miss- situation in 2002, Browne told the par- This horrific case also has many ing persons and rescue innocent women ents of missing child Shawn Hornbeck similarities to Jaycee Dugard, the girl from years of torture and imprisonment.

British Businessman Sentenced in Bogus ‘Bomb Detector’ Scam

Bogus bomb detectors have been places, claiming they could detect a re curring international problem, bombs, drugs, currency, and ivory a collision of defense needs with and track objects up to 3,280 feet pseudoscience. A number of such below ground. devices have been exposed (SI, The devices, marketed under January/February 1997 and January/ the brand ADE, sold for up to February 2003). In 2010 the director $40,000 each, had no working of a British company that supplied electronics, and were completely bogus bomb detectors to Iraq was useless. They were widely used at arrested on fraud charges ( Jay M. checkpoints in Iraq, giving a false

Pasachoff, “Pseudoscience and the sense of security. The Iraqi general Nick Edwards Iraq War: Bogus ‘Bomb Detectors’ who promoted the devices, Jihad Businessman James McCormick arrives at the Old Bailey in Central London on the day of his conviction. Cost Money and Lives,” SI, May/ al-Jabiri, then head of the Iraqi June 2010). Ministry of Interior’s General Di- Now the head of that com- rectorate for Combatting Explo- pany has been convicted of fraud sives, has been jailed in the scam, and sentenced to ten years in jail. along with other police officials. On May 2, 2013, Judge Richard As McCormick sat impassively Hone of Britain’s central crimi- nal court sentenced British busi- at his sentencing Judge Hone nessman James McCormick, age chastised him: “Your fraudulent fifty-seven, to the ten-year term. conduct in selling so many useless Sentencing followed his convic- devices for simply enormous profit tion on April 23 of fraud in the promoted a false sense of security sale of more than 6,000 fake bomb and in all probability materially detectors based on $20 golf ball contributed to causing death and finders bought from the United injury to innocent individuals. States. Court documents said he “The device was useless, the had made more than $75 million profit outrageous, and your culpa- from sales of the fake devices in bility as a fraudster has to be placed A soldier at a checkpoint using an ADE 651 I Iraq and Georgia, among other in the highest category.”

8 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer [SKEPTICAL INQUIREE BENJAMIN RADFORD Benjamin Radford is a research fellow at the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and author or coauthor of six books, including Tracking the Chupacabra: The Vampire Beast in Fact, Fiction, and Folklore.

Psychic Failure and the Boston Marathon Bombing

You wrote a short Facebook post after the Boston marathon bombing noting that psychics failed to predict the attack. Fair : enough, but one question: Say a psychic did foresee the event. Q Would telling anyone have changed anything? —C. Morrison

I indeed pointed out in a try to identify suspects, and put them lice routinely dismiss information com- two-sentence post that psy- under surveillance to thwart the attack. ing from psychics as unreliable, but in :chic powers had once again If it’s a one-time, vague prediction, I fact police must follow up on all cred- failed to warn the world don’t think anyone should take it se- ible tips about crimes, including those A about life-and-death trag- riously because random events and co- from dubious sources. They routinely edies and acts of terrorism incidences happen all the time (simply deal with liars, hoaxers, jailhouse in- whose consequences could by random chance, thousands of peo- formants with dubious motives, people have been prevented or mitigated. Since ple every day have seemingly prophetic with drug habits and mental illnesses, no psychics came forward in the days, dreams about events that happen the and so on. Police cannot simply ignore weeks, or months before the April 15, following day or week). But if there’s a lead or tip even when it comes from 2013, Boston attacks to warn authori- some reason to think someone has a real a psychic—after all, just because a per- ties, we will never know how the situa- predictive ability (whether explained or son claims to be psychic doesn’t mean tion might have been different. unexplained), then it absolutely should that he or she may not have some real It’s a valid question, and one echoed be taken seriously. knowledge of a crime (Radford 2010). by several others, including British Of course it depends on what, ex- skeptic Hayley Stevens, who wrote: Psychics and Police actly, our hypothetically accurate psy- “Psychics are damned if they do and This is not merely an academic exercise chic told police: Did she or he say, damned if they don’t. If they’d pre- or abstract thought experiment; we “There will be a bombing in Boston in dicted bombs would explode in Boston have enough information from real- 2013,” or “There will be a bomb at the during the Marathon we’d berate them world cases to have a pretty good idea Boston marathon finish line, and the for scaremongering. If they don’t pre- of what would have happened to a name Tsarnaev is somehow connected,” dict it we berate them for not warning psychic’s legitimate information about or something else? Psychics and psy- people.” the Boston bombing. chic detectives often claim to give the My answer is that if one or more The claim that police ignore psychics names, detailed physical descriptions, psychics did foresee the event, and it not only plays into the hands of these ethnicities, and countless other “spe- could be demonstrated that they had a psychics (“the problem is not that we cific” descriptors of wanted murderers, proven track record of accuracy in pre- give bad or vague information, but in- terrorists, and abductors to police. It is vious cases (that is, it’s not a random, stead that we’re ignored by the police”), not unreasonable to assume that, out one-time guess that anyone could do), but it is also factually wrong. Those of the tens of thousands of self-pro- then I would be the first person to try who aren’t familiar with the history of claimed psychics in North America and (Continued on page 11) to help the psychics alert the police, psychic detectives may assume that po-

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 9 Take action with us.

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Donate today. When you make a donation to CFI, you become a member of a worldwide movement of humanists, skeptics, atheists, and freethinkers—all working together to promote the secular worldview and give voice to your values. Our major goals include: I Protecting the rights of nonbelievers I Advocating for science-based medicine I Sustaining and expanding the secular movement Make your most generous gift today, or request information on planned giving or making a bequest. To receive a brochure elaborating on what we are doing to achieve our important goals and how you can help, please complete and return the attached card or contact us at: Center for Inquiry Development Office PO Box 741 Amherst, NY 14226 1.800.818.7071 [email protected] www.centerforinquiry.net/donate BENJAMIN RADFORD SKEPTICAL INQUIREE]

around the world, one or more of them Tsarnaev, the two accused Boston been flagged. This is especially true with genuine precognitive psychic abil- bombers? Quite a bit: In October 2011, given that the information would have ities would provide useful information America’s main counterterrorism agency, been passed along to the FBI counter- about the bombers. the National Counterterrorism Center, terrorism unit in Boston—the same In fact, I’ve encountered dozens of added Tamerlan Tsarnaev’s name to agency that had previously investigated cases where police have followed up on two different government watch lists, Tsarnaev only a year earlier, and whose even vague information from psychics. also alerting other agencies including agents were familiar with his profile. For example, in March 2004 a psychic the FBI and its Terrorist Screening Any actionable information would al- told the Transportation Security Ad- Database, the State Department, the most certainly have been at least briefly ministration (TSA) that a bomb was TSA, and the Homeland Security checked. And the information need aboard an American Airlines flight Department. We know that Tsarnaev’s not have been made public, avoiding leaving Florida and bound for Dal- name was still on a watch list as of the issue of scaremongering. So it’s unlikely that a psychic who (correctly or incorrectly) predicted a terrorist attack would be ignored or dismissed—especially if he or she could I respectfully disagree that psychics point to a history of verified, accurate are damned if they do make accurate predictions. If the information is vague (such as “a bomb might go off in Bos- predictions and damned if they don’t. ton around mid-April”), then of course it’s likely that the information will be The problem is that they don’t. ignored. But if the information is specific enough to follow up on (what’s called “actionable intelligence,” such as names, dates, locations, and profiles), then it’s very likely that the informa- las, Texas. The psychic’s bomb report January 12, 2012, when his flight reser- tion would indeed be taken seriously resulted in a pre-boarding search by vation to Russia flagged a security alert and investigated. the TSA and Port Authority police; (Schmitt and Schmidt 2013a). My answer is yes: I think that in this despite a thorough examination with In fact, the FBI dispatched two case, and many others, if police had both equipment and bomb-sniffing counterterrorism agents to interview been given useful information about dogs, nothing suspicious was found. Tsarnaev and his family in 2011 but the Boston attacks by psychics, it likely The delay forced cancellation of the found no evidence of terrorist activ- could have been prevented. I respect- flight. Doug Perkins, local administra- ity, leaving the case dormant. “At that fully disagree that psychics are damned tor for the TSA, said that the psychic’s point, [an FBI] official said, ‘you would if they do make accurate predictions information was taken seriously be- need additional information, like a fol- and damned if they don’t. The problem cause “…we can’t ignore anything. We low-up request’” (Schmitt and Schmidt is that they don’t—and if they did I’d want to take the appropriate measures.” 2013b) for information or some other be the first person encouraging law en- In 2011, the Texas police, FBI, and reason to look again at Tsarnaev as a forcement to use them to solve crimes possible threat. and prevent terrorism. Anything else is Texas Rangers mobilized the massive I search of a remote farm based on a tip Which brings us back to the ques- simply making excuses for failure. tion of whether or not information from a psychic that mass graves would References be found there. There have even been from a psychic would have been taken Radford, Benjamin. 1999. FBI enlisted psy- cases where the FBI has actually en- seriously by authorities and investigated—possibly preventing the attack chic in TWA 800 investigation. S listed psychics in their investigations, I (July/August). in the first place. It seems almost cer- such as in the 1996 crash of TWA ———. 2010. The psychic and the serial killer: tain that if police had been given rea- Investigating the ‘best case’ for psychic Flight 800 near Long Island (see Rad- sonably specific, accurate information detectives. S I (March/ ford 1999). April). about one or both of the Tsarnaev Schmitt, Eric, and Michael S. Schmidt. 2013a. brothers (by a self-proclaimed psychic Slain Boston bombing suspect was placed Boston Bombing Suspects or anyone else) that someone would on two federal watch lists in 2011. The New With that background, what do we have taken a few seconds to enter that York Times (April 24): A16. ———. 2013b. Officials say they didn’t have know about law enforcement’s knowl- information in a computer system authority to monitor suspect. The New York edge about Tamerlan and Dzhokhar where the information had already Times (April 23): A13.

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 11 [ INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL Joe Nickell, CSI’s senior research fellow, has worked professionally as a stage magician, mentalist, private investigator, and scholar. His latest book is The Science of Miracles (Prometheus Books, 2013).

Mind Over Metal

an people move or alter physical Amazing” Randi once observed Geller objects simply by using a hidden up close. Posing as an editor when Cpower of the mind called psy- Geller performed in the offices of Time chokinesis? I have encountered many magazine, Randi saw the simple tricks claims of such powers in the course of behind Geller’s wonderworking. For my work (since 1969) as a paranormal example, while Geller pretended to investigator. And I have pretended to cover his eyes as a secretary made a have such ability myself—both as a simple drawing, he actually peeked, professional stage magician and men- thus enabling him to appear to read talist (a magician specializing in appar- her mind and reproduce the draw- ent psychic feats). In the fall of 2012, I ing. Again, while supposedly bending attended a workshop that enabled me a key “by concentration,” Geller had

to investigate the latest popular expres- Figure 1. Uri Geller seemed able to bend keys and cutlery instead bent it against a table when he sion of psychokinetic metal bending. with his thoughts. (Drawing by Joe Nickell) thought he was unobserved. (For more on Geller’s methods, see Randi 1982.) Psychokinesis chokinetic metal bending is another alleged macro-PK phenomenon. The term psychokinesis (formerly teleki- More Benders nesis), or PK, derives from the Greek Geller was soon imitated by other “psy- Geller the PK Marvel words for “mind” and “motion.” Together chics” who discovered that they, too, with extrasensory perception (ESP), it It appears that the first major per- could bend keys and spoons. One was constitutes what parapsychologists refer former of apparent PK metal bending Judy Knowles, who impressed London to as “psi” to describe the two seemingly (PK-MB) was Israeli-born former fash- physics professor and parapsychologist closely related phenomena. However, the ion model and nightclub magician, Uri John Hasted with her apparent ability. existence of psi has never been proven Geller (b. 1946) (Figure 1). Claiming to Hasted invited James Randi to observe and, indeed, according to a sympathetic be guided by super beings from a distant tests of Knowles in a lab at Bath. Randi source: “Despite decades of research, planet, Geller appeared to read minds, arrived with colleagues and his check- psi continues to elude physical and bend keys and cutlery with PK, see book, offering Ms. Knowles $10,000 if quasi-physical theories of how it func- while blindfolded, and perform other she successfully passed the test, which tions; it operates outside the bounds of feats—all of which skilled magicians was designed by Harry Collins of the time and space” (Guiley 1991, 468). easily duplicate. (I, for example, have University of Bath. Collins had tested PK describes the alleged power of driven a car while blindfolded [Nickell other spoon benders, but none had mind over matter, including such “mi- with Fischer 1992, 77].) He typically been successful, and some children had cro-PK” acts as subtly influencing how refused to perform when magicians been caught cheating. thrown dice will land, or “macro-PK” were observing but, nevertheless, was Briefly, the test involved Knowles feats like levitating a table or producing occasionally caught cheating. holding the spoon in a single hand so-called “poltergeist” effects (actually, Renowned American magician rested on a table before a two-way mir- typically the tricks of children1). Psy- and psychic investigator James “The ror. Observers, equipped with a video

12 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer camera, were on the opposite, see- mysteriously bent in their pockets or escapable inference was that perhaps through side of the mirror. A candle purses. In fact keys may become acci- the “real” effects were accomplished was used to blacken the bowl of the dentally bent in various ways (as by the by tricks also. Among various shared test spoon so that, if one attempted to key being used in haste so that the par- secrets, some were sold through magic cheat—using the thumb to press against tially inserted key is turned in the lock supply houses, including Mark Walk- the bowl and so cause bending—the at- prematurely). Such an already bent key er’s book Key Bending (which also gave tempt would be revealed by the result- may go unnoticed until the performer secrets to bending cutlery) (Abbott’s ing smudging. Knowles tried unsuc- calls attention to it (Shaw 1996, 619). 1987, 337). Top-flight demonstrators cessfully to bend the spoon using PK, Major claimants of PK-MB were of the magic art of pseudo PK-MB are but after nearly two hours, she quit the —in addition to Uri Geller—Jean- James Randi and Banachek. test. Randi and colleagues concluded Pierre Girard (France), Masuaki Riyota Later, laypeople began to try their Knowles had been unsuccessful, while (Japan), and Stephen North (England), hand, quite literally. Beginning in the Hasted and associates called the results 1980s, at metal-bending parties and “inconclusive” (Randi 1978, 36–39). workshops attendees began surpris- In the early 1980s, two young Amer- ing themselves with their newfound icans, Steve Shaw and Mike Edwards, PK-MB abilities. They typically bent convinced parapsychologists at a psy- spoons with their hands while insisting chical research laboratory in St. Louis, they did not exert sufficient force to Missouri, that they could use their PK cause the extent of bending achieved. powers to move objects and bend metal What was going on? under test conditions. In 1983, however, the duo revealed that they had Hands-On perpetrated a hoax—now known as On the evening of August 23, 2012, Figure 1. Scotland’s ancient Stirling Castle, crowning a massive volcanic crag, is allegedly haunted Project Alpha. Having worked secretly my wife, Diana, and I showed up at a by “The Green Lady.” with James Randi, they demonstrated workshop in Lily Dale, a tiny village that credulous scientists could be fooled in Western New York that represents like anyone else (Shaw 1996, 617–18; the world’s largest spiritualist com- Randi 1995, 253–54). Shaw has gone munity. The session was conducted on to become the internationally ac- by Ron Nagy, curator of the Lily Dale claimed mentalist Banachek. Museum and an old friend (Figure 2). As a colleague and friend of Bana- In the spirit of openness he had invited chek, I have seen his metal-bending Figure 2. Ron Nagy teaches well-attended workshops in me to attend, and we mutually agreed effects firsthand many times, especially “PK” spoon bending at Lily Dale spiritualist village. (Photo by Joe Nickell) not to be adversarial. That is, he would at one of his workshops for fellow ma- not “out” me as a notorious skeptic, and gicians and mentalists (Amherst, New I would not be troublesome. York, June 16, 2009). His remarkable as well as another Israeli, Ronni The ad for the workshop defined fork bend, whereby the tine of the Marcus. (In 1994, Unsolved Mysteries psychokinesis as “the movement of fork is seen to visibly bend without asked me to observe Marcus’s act at a objects without physical contact,” then being touched, is superior to any of Uri conference. However, a producer subse- went on to promise: Geller’s effects—according to no less an quently called to say that the conference authority than the late skeptic and magi- This workshop will explain the basic organizers had refused to allow me to mind over matter aspects of bending cian Martin Gardner (Shaw 1996, 615). participate, and the TV show there- metal objects and also explain how fore withdrew its interest. I attended the mind and body can react together Evolutionary Phenomenon anyway, undercover, but Marcus was a and cause harmonious health conditions. This workshop is intended to PK metal bending has evolved over no-show amid revelations he had been be fun and also provide experiences time. As we have seen, performers caught cheating in California and had previously believed to be impossi- ap peared to bend metal by simply look- returned to Israel [Randi 1994].) ble that should reduce some of the ing at it or stroking it lightly. Some- Soon, honest magicians and men- artificial limits we have placed in our lives. It may seem remarkable that times they even allegedly bent metal talists got into the act, demonstrating with very little training one might be remotely. The performer might suggest, that very convincing PK-MB effects able to accomplish this extraordinary for instance, that people’s keys have could be produced by trickery. The in- proof that belief in spirit and mind over

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 13 the spoon. . . . If you kept watching the spoon, worrying over it, it was less likely to bend” (“Spoon Bending” 2013). The ad for our workshop defined PK as occurring “without physical contact”; this means that PK was not demonstrated by the participants, since they had held the cutlery in both hands in the very way one would in order to deliberately bend it. But this workshop did not involve trickery. The only deception that seemed involved was I self-deception. Acknowledgments CFI Librarian Lisa Nolan helped with the research on PK parties and Library Director Tim Binga provided other assistance. Note For a discussion, see Nickell 2012, 325–31, 333–41. References Figure 3. Cutlery was bent by the author at a Lily Dale workshop. (Photo by Joe Nickell) Abbott’s Catalog 23. 1987. Colon, Michigan: matter is more powerful than certain was even able to put spiral twists into Abbott’s Magic Manufacturing Co. realities. (“Spoon Bending” 2012) the handle—again see Figure 3) while Guiley, Rosemary Ellen. 1991. Encyclopedia of the Strange, Mystical & Unexplained. New York: being somewhat distracted from the For the next two hours, we held Gramercy Books. process. An ability to dissociate (to sep- Nickell, Joe. 2012. The Science of Ghosts: Searching spoons (and occasionally forks) in our arate a mental activity from the main for Spirits of the Dead. Amherst, NY: hands as we implored them to respond stream of consciousness) seems a defi- Prometheus Books. to our thoughts. To free our minds, Nickell, Joe, with John F. Fischer. 1992. nite asset, because the bending relies Ron had us—acting in unison—jump Mysterious Realms: Probing Paranormal, heavily on the ideomotor effect (the psy- in the air and turn around twice, while Historical, and Forensic Enigmas. Amherst, chological phenomenon in which, un- NY: Prometheus Books. thinking the metal was bending. Sure consciously, one moves his or her hand Randi, James. 1978. Special report: Tests and enough, for all but one or two of the investigations of three psychics. S sufficiently to affect dowsing rods, Oui- thirty or so participants, we achieved I 2(2) (Spring/Summer): 25–26. ja-board planchettes, and the like [Nic- bending. I had especially good results. ———. 1982. The Truth About Uri Geller. kell 2012, 348–49]). Buffalo, NY: Prometheus Books. (See Figure 3.) Some participants PK-MB partygoers have inadver- ———. 1994. Ronnie at Berkeley. Online at seemed quite mystified. www.mindspring.com/~anson/randi-ho- tently described the very processes I tline/1994/0010.html; accessed April 26, have explained. One wrote, “. . . we Revelation 2013. needed to create an atmosphere of ex- ———. 1995. The Supernatural A-Z. London: However, I could see early on that a citement and emotional arousal.” The Brockhampton Press. positive attitude was helpful: Being party host, an engineer named Jack Shaw, Steve. 1996. In Stein 1996, 613–19. Spoon Bending. 2012. Ad for workshop, Lily confident that the spoon would easily Houck, “encouraged us to be noisy and Dale Assembly 2012 Program: Legacy of Love, bend helped overcome the negative first excited.” The writer added, “The only 47. impression that the metal was resistant. thing I noticed is that spoon bending Spoon Bending. 2013. Online at http://www. Such is the power of positive thinking. seemed to require a focused attention. uri-geller.com/mct27.htm; accessed February 12, 2013. What I think really happens in such You had to try to get it to bend, and Stein, Gordon, ed. 1996. The Encyclopedia of situations is that one simply exerts suf- then you had to forget about it. Maybe the Paranormal. Amherst, NY: Prometheus ficient strength to cause the bending (I talk to someone else while you rubbed Books.

14 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer [THINKING ABOUT SCIENCE MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI Massimo Pigliucci is professor of philosophy at the City University of New York, a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and author of Answers for Aristotle: How Science and Philosophy Can Lead Us to a More Meaningful Life. His essays can be found at rationallyspeaking.org.

Mathematical Explanations and Degrees of Impossibility

uppose you are the mother of Again, the explanation for the fail- know a priori that they must be false three children. You are having ure is distinctively mathematical, not because of the strong modality of the Sa nice picnic with them and physical. law of conservation of energy. wish to divide up the strawberries in The reason I am bringing this up is The idea that some philosophers your basket equally, without cutting because skeptics are very aware of what have put forth, and that Lange nicely them (because you don’t want to be philosophers refer to as the “modality” explores in the paper I’ve mentioned, messy). The problem is: there are twen- of science, but they tend to be some- is that there is a range of increasingly ty-three strawberries in your basket, what more oblivious to other forms of stronger modalities, where the phys- which means that you cannot actually ical one is, perhaps to the chagrin of accomplish the feat you intended to “fundamental” physicists, actually the accomplish. Why not? The explana- weakest. We have seen two examples tion is mathematical, not just physical, of mathematical modality, in which the and in some sense more fundamental explanation of the physical impossibil- than a physical explanation would be. ity of two tasks transcends physics itself, Or take another well-known problem, since under any set of laws of physics it at least in philosophical circles. The would still be impossible to evenly dis- formerly Prussian town of Königsberg tribute the twenty-three uncut straw- (where Immanuel Kant was born and berries among the three children, or to lived) has a number of bridges that Figure 1. The bridges of Königsberg. cross all of the bridges of Königsberg go over a river and its fork in several exactly once. Consider now Newton’s places. Now, nobody has been able so second law of motion, another example far (nor is there any expectation that modality, such as logical or mathemat- brought up by Lange. The law is sum- anyone will be able in the future) to ical. Modality, in philosophy, refers to marized by the simple mathematical cross all bridges in Königsberg exactly the necessity of certain things. So for equation F = ma, where F is the force once while remaining either on land or instance, the law of conservation of en- acting on a body, m is its mass, and a is on a bridge (i.e., without using boats) ergy makes perpetual motion machines its acceleration. The interesting thing is and while always completing the cross- physically (modally) impossible. That that the law is independent of the spe- ing of a given bridge once he started is, there is no way to build perpetual cific causal framework within which a to walk on it. Why not? Because—as motion machines without violating a given force acts (it would hold, for in- philosopher Marc Lange explains in a fundamental law of physics. This is why stance, even if gravity followed an in- 2012 paper that appeared in the British the U.S. Patent Office long ago stopped verse cube, rather than an inverse square Journal for the Philosophy of Science—the even considering applications for such decay curve), which means that the mo- bridges of Königsberg are arranged as a machines, and it is also why the skeptic dality (i.e., the necessity) of Newton’s particular type of network that makes doesn’t really have to empirically inves- second law is stronger than that of other it impossible to accomplish that feat. tigate claims of perpetual motion: we physical facts about our universe.

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 15 Or consider the principle of natural material of earthly organisms happens stronger than physical ones). selection in biology. Its original Dar- to be a type of nucleic acid). So, the next time we tell a purveyor winian formulation was famously re- The idea that Lange develops in his of pseudoscientific notions that what he stated by geneticist Richard Lewontin paper, then, is that there are different is proposing is “impossible,” we would in the 1970s in a way that transcends degrees of modality that we can use to be well served by specifying which type the specific substrate of biological or- understand why some things are pos- of impossibility we are referring to. ganisms: any system characterized by sible and others impossible. That is, The higher we can reasonably go along random variation of its attributes, a “possibility” and “impossibility” need to Lange’s sliding scale of modality, the correlation between those attributes be qualified: something can be mathe- more confident we can be of the impos- and whatever measure of fitness applies, matically possible but physically impossibility of the extranormal phenomenon and a mechanism of inheritance of the sible because the laws of physics of our in question. Conversely, we need to be fitness-related attributes across genera- universe just happen not to be struc- careful about throwing the word impos- tions must evolve according to Darwin- tured in a causally conducive way. But sible around too casually, since it may ian principles. That is, the modality of if something is mathematically, or logi- turn out that a given phenomenon is Darwinian evolution is stronger than cally, impossible, then no set of physical merely contingently not true but doesn’t the one imposed by more contingent laws could make it possible (i.e., math- rise to the lofty metaphysical level of I biological facts (such as that the genetic ematical and logical impossibilities are being impossible.

There’s much more Skep ti cal In q uir er available on our website!

Here’s just a sample of what you’ll find: “Magnet People: How Do They Work?” The first in a fun and informative series of columns titled Reductio Ad Absurdum by Kyle Hill kicks off with a look at so-called “magnetic people.” “Bigfoot Club Skeptic” Kitty Mervine explains how she became the token “skeptic” member of a local Bigfoot group: almost by chance—and with a nod to the “reality” TV show Finding Bigfoot.

For more online columns, features, and special content, visit www.csicop.org.

16 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer [NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD MASSIMO POLIDORO Massimo Polidoro is an investigator of the paranormal, lecturer, and cofounder and head of CICAP, the Italian skeptics group. His website is at www.massimopolidoro.com.

The Mystery of the Sicilian Avengers

n eighteenth-century Sicily, there was believed the sect would meet—Na- the first to discuss the Beati Paoli in once was a group of mysterious men. toli’s novel became almost a sacred text, writing. In his Opuscoli palermitani, IBy day, they would care for their read aloud every evening by the head the first text to mention the sect, he businesses, but at night they would of the family for relatives who listened explains how in his days the Beati Paoli transform into a terrible sect, avengers to it in rapt silence. According to the “were already a lost seed.” That is, no of injustice and rectifiers of wrongs. historian Rosario La Duca: “In Sicily, one remembered them. Aristocratic and wealthy, they would the Beati Paoli is still the only book that It was Gaetani who reconstructed protect the poor commoners and bring a lot of ordinary people ever read in the their story, calling them first and fore- oppressors and tyrants to justice. They course of their life.” Yet very few out- most a “sect of wicked and capricious would wear black hoods and their people called avengers” and tracing identities were a mystery, even to each their origins back to 1185. From the other. Their meeting point was in a Middle Ages, the sect would be contin- place called “Cuncuma,” an under- ually renewed up until one of the most ground grotto in Palermo, where caves turbulent periods in the history of Sic- and tunnels could lead their vengeance ily, the one that in Natoli’s novel spans everywhere it was needed. They were from 1698 to 1719. known as the Beati Paoli (“Blessed It was an age of great contrasts, Pauls”), and whoever was found guilty shaken by years of war and strong dis- of some infraction would tremble upon agreements between church and state. hearing their name. Suffice it to say that during those twenty years, Sicily saw a succession The ‘Sacred’ Novel of three monarchies. First the Span- ish, with the accession to the throne These are, broadly speaking, the char- of Philip V, the first Bourbon king of acteristics of the legendary sect of Spain, then with Vittorio Amedeo II the Beati Paoli. It was a long history of Savoy, and finally with the Austrian

handed down in Sicily and told only Photo Credit: photos from the blog of Tommaso Aiello (http://tommasoaiello.com) Charles VI of Habsburg. orally until it was published in the A portrait of Luigi Natoli by F. Camarda, 1934. In this climate, it was inevitable that form of a serialized novel in 1909. The the noble and powerful abused their author of the novel was Luigi Natoli, side Sicily have ever heard of it. But, powers at the expense of the weakest. who signed with the pseudonym of above all, it is reasonable to ask whether The Justice of the State, where it was William Galt and told the story in the history of the Beati Paoli is just a not absent altogether, was almost al- 239 episodes published daily by the legend or has any real historical basis. ways at the service of the strongest; in Giornale di Sicilia. addition, the same nobles often made Even before then, the story was told use of thugs to quickly resolve those A Sect of the Wicked and repeated with such passion and care cases that they preferred not to subject by the Sicilians that it became widely A historian of ancient Palermo, Fran- even to the courts. known among both the poor and the cesco Maria Emanuele Gaetani, Here, then, according to Gaetani, bourgeoisie. For the inhabitants of the Marquis of Villabianca, who lived at the reason that gave birth to the Beati Capo—the Palermo district where it the end of the eighteenth century, was Paoli: “Poor people, not being able to

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 17 pay for a killer, summoned the pride to After the murder of Police Lieu- as it was later considered, being suf- do wickedly for themselves with their tenant Joe Petrosino, the enemy of ficiently known both the character of own hands.” It was not simply a form Italian crime transplanted in the United political-military faction and the era in of personal justice but was managed States, who was killed in Palermo on which it acted.” by a body acting in the shadows and, March 12, 1909, the investigation therefore, by its nature elusive and in brought to light that the mafia killers, The Extant Secret Lair turn powerful. responsible for the death of the Ital- Was it ever known who the Beati Paoli ian-American policeman, not only had really were and where exactly they Ancestors of the Mafia? already appropriated the myth of the gathered? In his essay, Gaetani iden- For the masses, the Beati Paoli were Beati Paoli but had started to meet in a tifies only three members of the sect. heroes and defenders of the oppressed, basement, just like in the legend of the About the first, Giuseppe Amatore, and Natoli paints them as such in his ancient cult. we only know that he was a “master scopettiere,” that is a manufacturer of rifles, that he was called “u Russu” (the Red one) and that he was hanged in Palermo on December 17, 1704, at the age of twenty-seven. The second, Girolamo Ammirata, “rational by pro- fession” (an accountant), was hanged on the Piazza del Carmine in 1723 for killing a man “with a stroke of carrubina.” Regarding the third one, Gaetani tells us that he had been able to meet him in person. He was a famous coach driver in Palermo, Vito Vituzzu, that Gaetani knew as a child and called “The last ruffian of the Compagnia de’ Beati Paoli.” Once he escaped the

Photo Credit: photos from the blog of Tommaso Aiello (http://tommasoaiello.com) Backboard of a Sicilian cart illustrating two episodes from the Beati Paoli stories. gallows, and with the cult dissolved, he was reduced to be the “church farmer,” novel. Others, however, such as the But this is just “embezzlement,” ac- i.e., the sacristan, at St. Matteo al Cas- nineteenth-century journalist Vincent cording to historians. “The Mafia” says saro. Linares, considered them “wicked kill- La Duca, “has its roots in the disinte- As for the cave of their mysterious ers” who often acted for personal ven- gration of the agrarian feudal structure get-togethers, it was called the Cun- dettas or to perform other common of the island, which took place in the cuma because in dialect “keep con- crimes. Also, according to Linares, the early nineteenth century, by which time cùmiu” means “take counsel together, sect was eventually vanquished and the sect of the Beati Paoli had long conspire.” scattered. gone.” Natoli’s book, therefore, would Natoli describes the lair: “It was a There are those who want to see a have unwittingly contributed to the sort of cave, dug into the tuff, with a link between the Beati Paoli and the apologetic feelings for the mafia. “The circular dome on top; in the middle of modern mafia, seen here as a secret citizen of Palermo,” says the scholar the room there was a stone table; the society. During a deposition, Mob re- Francesco Paolo Castiglione, “is cer- man who gave orders would sit behind pentant Tommaso Buscetta, a great ad- tain that in an unspecified age—as is the table, his black hood was large and mirer of Natoli’s book, declared: “The always the case with historical refer- fully closed as the hooded brethren and mafia was not born today, it comes ences among common people—the op- would reach down to the middle of his from the past. First there were the Beati pressed had reached a precise awareness chest.” Paoli, struggling with the poor against of their rights and were able to avenge According to Gaetani, the meeting the rich…we have the same oath, the the violence that they were forced to place of the Beati Paoli was identified same duties.” Another “pentito,” To- suffer. But clear indications show that, in an underground cavity in the neigh- tuccio Contorno, called himself “Co- as long as the novelists did not start to borhood of the Capo, near the church riolanus Floresta,” just as the hero of build fanciful tales about literary Beati of S. Mary of Jesus. Accessible through Natoli’s novel did. Paoli, the sect was not as mysterious it, Gaetani wrote, was the home of the

18 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer MASSIMO POLIDORO NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD]

lawyer Giovanbattista Baldi: “From the first floor of the entrance of the house, through a door, you arrive in a small open court in which there is a low tree, and the floor on which you walk is nothing else than the layer covering the cave below. In the center of the vault is an eye with an iron grate that serves as a crack and gives light to the underground cave.” It then went down five stone steps and there you were in a room that overlooked the main cave, complete with seats carved into the rock and shelves “in which they placed their iron firearms.” The existence of this cave was confirmed in the late nineteenth century by the visit of a Palermo scholar, Vincenzo Di Giovanni, who found it, stating that in 1889 it was possible to access it through “the house of Baron Biandano in the Via Beati Paoli at no. 35.” Today the Cuncuma is no longer accessible because the inputs were walled up, but after his visit Di Giovanni had a marble plaque put up on the building facade, which, in order to avoid any possible

doubt, read: “The old headquarters of Photo Credit: photos from the blog of Tommaso Aiello (http://tommasoaiello.com) the Beati Paoli.” A 1940s tableau used to illustrate in public the story of the Beati Paoli. Caves and tunnels, in fact, are well known in the area and are part of a Giuseppe Pitrè, a nineteenth-century to take a lot of beating, today in Sicily Christian cemetery complex developed anthropologist who lived in Palermo, the phrase is another way of saying that in the fourth century , the natural wrote: “Particularly lucky were consid- one is a survivor. It seems, in fact, that bed of the river Papireto. “But popular ered those born on the night of St. Paul during the day, the Beati Paoli went imagination,” says La Duca, who is also ( June 29–30), as it was widely believed into churches pretending to pray the an expert on the topography of Pal- that they possessed supernatural virtues Rosary dressed as monks of St. Fran- ermo, “believed and still believes that not shared by any other mortal. They cesco di Paola (another possible origin each cavity present in the underground are strong and prosperous, can handle for the name). It was actually a ploy in of the city or his neighbor’s territory snakes, vipers, and venomous reptiles of order to better learn the facts that hap- has been used by members of the secret all kinds with impunity . . . can face the pened in the town, and then, at night, society. The most unthinkable legends werewolves . . . know how to predict they would plot and implement their have then emerged and find a justifiable the future and are considered infallible revenges based on what they had heard. support in the presence, in the north- oracles. It is likely, then, that since they That is why, even today, in order to western area of the vast territory of Pal- were considered almost supernatural indicate a dangerous person who only ermo, of stone quarries in tunnels that incarnations of the Apostle Paul, they appears to be good on the surface, you are mostly empty and make the subsoil gave the name to the sect of the Beati can hear in Palermo and the surround- viable.” Paoli, whose members were also con- ing area the people say: “He is just like a I sidered supernatural beings, both for Beato Paolo.” Myth and Reality the aura of mystery that surrounded The story of the Beati Paoli inevitably them and the secrecy of their actions.” Acknowledgment moves between myth and reality. The True or false, the Beati Paoli also en- Many thanks to Fara Di Maio for helping same name of the sect, whose origins tered common language. And if “having in the research of material in the archives are not clear, is an example in itself. as much as the Beati Paoli” once meant of Palermo.

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 19 [ PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ROBERT SHEAFFER Sheaffer’s “Psychic Vibrations” column has appeared in the S I for more than thirty years; its highlights have now been published as a book (Create Space 2011). Sheaffer blogs at www.BadUFOs.com, and his website is www.debunker.com.

UFOs in the Desert, 2013

or the second year in a row, I attended the International UFO FCongress near Phoenix, Arizona, the largest UFO conference in the world. What follows are some of the highlights of the conference. A much longer, five-part version of this report can be found on my blog at www. BadUFOs.com. Ben Hansen, host of the Fact or Faked show on the SyFy Channel, strate credibility, the video is dubious He then saw, looking out the window, spoke on “Profiling the Hoaxers.” He since a real UFO video would be taken four aliens walking around with flash- explained that his background in law without preparation or warning. Also, lights. The Rangers also received re- enforcement prepared him well for certain technical errors in the creation ports of Bigfoot sightings and tracks, evaluating forensic evidence of UFOs of a video reveal a hoax. Bigfoot videos witchcraft, and Shapeshifters (similar and other “paranormal” evidence. He tend to show the creature moving left- to werewolves). Such beliefs, they ex- describes himself as neither a believer to-right much more than the opposite. plained, are prevalent on the reserva- nor a skeptic but a “verifier.” He ex- Either Bigfoot walks in circles, or else tion. plains that hoaxes abound in UFOl- it is staged to look this way. But Han- Grant Cameron, who has been ac- ogy, and that there can be big money sen believes that some Bigfoot sightings tive in UFO and paranormal research in making bogus ET claims, although are valid, as he believes are some UFO for almost forty years, spoke on “Con- he refused to name any names. He set sightings. sciousness and UFOs.” He is convinced forth several “Hoaxer Subtypes,” in- Stanley Milford and John Dover, that no real progress in knowledge cluding the charismatic Clinical Con who are current and retired (respec- about UFOs will be made until we suc- Artist; Legendizers who seek fame tively) law enforcement for the Na- cessfully contact the beings involved. and/or financial gain; Commercial vajo Nation, spoke on “UFOs Over Cameron’s argument is basically that if Campaigners with publicity stunts; Native American Land” (the Congress you can show that the idea of mental Self-Amused Pranksters motivated by itself takes place on an Indian reserva- contact with UFOs predates the earli- the challenge of pulling it off; and Dis- tion). These two officers headed up the est contactee, George Adamski, then information Agents—the rarest type Rangers’ Special Projects Unit, which you have shown that it is not deriva- and a category that sounds rather du- “managed the investigation of those tive from that case. This argument is bious to me. cases that would be deemed ‘paranor- quite correct, even ingenious. But the Claims of persecution by federal mal,’ such as witchcraft, Bigfoot sight- problem is that even then you still ha- agencies is a red flag of a charismatic ings, hauntings, and UFO sightings,” ven’t proven that the “contact” is real; hoaxer. When a story or a video is although these are only about one to all you’ve proven is that Adamski wasn’t crafted to capture emotion, this is a two percent of the cases of Special Proj- the first to make it up. sign of a hoax. You have to think like a ects. In one incident, an elderly Navajo Micah Hanks, an author and re- movie director: if the crafting of a video claimed that a brilliantly illuminated searcher, talked about “The UFO appears to be planned out to demon- UFO circled his remote desert house. Singu larity.” As our machines’ artificial

20 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer intelligence continues to increase, fu- Later in his own talk, Dantonio the man’s house in full Ghost Hunter turists speculate that for precisely one showed photos and videos that depict mode, with radio frequency scanners, moment of time their intelligence will lens flares, aircraft operation, solar bal- magnetometers, and radiation detec- equal ours—and then forever afterward, loons, the blinking lights on a vehicle, tors. Many anomalies were discovered, theirs will be greater. This, of course, a reflection on a windshield, blowing including a magnetic monopole (some- has nothing to do with UFOs. Or does snow, a flock of geese, digital skywrit- thing sought more eagerly even than it? Hanks suggests that UFOs may rep- ing, a butterfly, and views of a tower unicorns), and magnetized wood and resent a “post-singularity technology,” from Google Earth. “The purpose is plastic. However, the man’s wife was probably originating here on Earth, that not primarily to debunk the footage but in a “constant state of denial” about all somehow “transcends temporality.” to illustrate that we must be very hard this alien activity. Steve Colbern talked The venerable Leo Sprinkle, psy- on the data in order to find the holy about the supposed alien implant re- chologist and pioneering UFO abduc- grail of UFOlogy.” Amen, brother! moved during that surgery. It is sim- tionist, spoke on “Memories of an ET But the reason he is not a total skep- ilar in appearance to a meteorite and Experiencer and Spiritual Pigtailer.” tic, he explained, is that about fifteen consists of carbon fiber nanotubes, a Sprinkle has been hypnotically regress- years ago he had a traumatic encounter manufactured nanotechnology device ing supposed ET experiencers for over forty years and still looks vigorous and spry at age eighty-two. Only in recent While Dantonio believes that some UFO cases years did Sprinkle reveal that he believes he is an ET experiencer himself. are authentic, he is actually very skeptical of He also talked about reincarnation and photos and videos. “We must remove all of the his past lives. The panel “Investigating UFOs” possible ‘knowns,’” he said, and if it’s a close featured James Fox, Nick Pope, and correlation to something we already know, Marc Dantonio and was hosted by Lee Speigel. If you have been reading Spei- he concludes it is that. gel’s articles in The Huffington Post, you know that he has been receiving many purported UFO photos and videos, and he has been sending them to Dan- event in which he awoke at night, par- of unknown purpose. Thirty-two trace tonio for analysis. Marc Dantonio is alyzed, and was menaced by terrifying elements were detected, including irid- MUFON’s chief photo/video analyst creatures. Dantonio appears not to be ium, and meteoric iron. One magnetic and president of FX Models, a mod- familiar with the well-known phenom- pole of the object is stronger than the el-making and special effects company. enon of sleep disorders known as hyp- other (which I think makes it a mag- Because he is an expert in special ef- nagogic and hypnopompic hallucina- netic monopole, as well). fects, it would be extremely difficult for tions, which account for a large number On Friday evening there was a free a hoaxer to fool him. While Dantonio of “alien abduction” reports. skywatch hosted by Ben Hansen and believes that some UFO cases are au- Roger Leir and Steven Colbern sponsored by Night Optics USA, a thentic, he is actually very skeptical of spoke on “Alien Implants: The Tip Bushnell company. Their hope was to photos and videos. “We must remove of the Iceberg.” Leir has performed sell some very expensive night-vision all of the possible ‘knowns,’” he said, sixteen surgeries to remove implants equipment to UFO enthusiasts. People and if it’s a close correlation to some- from alleged alien abductees. He says stood in line for their turn to personally thing we already know, he concludes his Alien & Scalpel Research (A&S) is look through the different night-vision it is that. Then he said something that incorporated as a 501(c)(3) company, devices. Meanwhile UFO skeptic James amazed me: “Lee, you haven’t yet given and does not charge for any of the sur- McGaha and I had brought our porta- me anything ‘unknown.’” He says, “I am geries. During his fifteenth surgery Leir ble telescopes and offered views of Jupi- harsh on the data.” Even when a wit- says that the implant kept moving away ter, the Pleiades, and the Orion nebula. ness insists “I know what I saw!” Dan- from the scalpel. It broke into twelve On the big screen, a satellite or some- tonio tells them that his comments are pieces and one disappeared. Two days thing was briefly noted, but nothing of directed toward the data—the photo or after removal, the remaining pieces re- UFOlogical significance was seen all video—not toward what they saw. assembled themselves. A&S went to night.

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 21 [PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ROBERT SHEAFFER

John Rao, the founder of Open dreadful Chasing UFOs, which, I am Fox explained that he had arranged to Minds (sponsor of the UFO Con- happy to report, will not be renewed interview Buzz Aldrin about the UFOs gress) drove his UFO spotting vehicle for another season. He has a spaceflight that supposedly followed him to the to the evening skywatch. This ATV consulting company. McGee described moon, but Aldrin backed out at the last has been customized with dual cam- the history of life on Earth in terms minute because he feared losing fund- eras in the back. However, these are of “galactic years,” the time required ing from Paul Allen for SETI. Fox an- not astronomical cameras but instead for one full rotation of our galaxy (220 nounced that his next UFO documen- are security cameras like those used million years). Hence “deep time” is tary project was under way: 701—The by the Border Patrol to look for illegal important to think about in terms of Movie. This, he says, is the number border crossers; they do not have the the prevalence of ETI. Earth has had that the government does not want you resolution that is typical of astronom- five major extinction events in the last to know—the number of Project Blue ical cameras. The cameras picked up a 2.5 galactic years, and two within the Book “unknowns.” What Fox does not round object that Rao suggested was an last galactic year. So how long would a realize is that this number has already “orb.” It slowly drifted from left to right civilization last in our galaxy? If dras- shrunk upon further analysis and is set across the screen, and he would repeat- tic extinction events are common, then to shrink still further (see Tim Printy’s Sunlite at tinyurl.com/bqqp5py). Of course there was the inevitable talk by Stanton T. Friedman, who promised “A New Look at the Cos- Fox explained that he had arranged to interview mos,” although very little in his talk was Buzz Aldrin about the UFOs that supposedly new. He began talking about scientific mistakes of the past. To Friedman, followed him to the moon, but Aldrin backed out rejecting UFOs is another of science’s at the last minute because he feared great mistakes. He presented the equations of fusion, without working out losing funding from Paul Allen for SETI. the actual results of those equations as did Edward M. Purcell, proving that interstellar travel using nuclear fusion is preposterous. He termed SETI the “silly effort to investigate.” After all, why look all across the cosmos for ETI edly move it back to the left side again. an estimated 325 million planets would when they’re here right now? It was obviously an out-of-focus star contain not an actual civilization but the People say that if the government image, moving from east to west be- ruins of one. Hence, xenoarchaeology, had UFO secrets, they would have cause the camera does not have celestial the study of artifacts from extraterres- leaked out by now. Friedman claims tracking to compensate for the rotation trial civilizations, which would require that governments can keep secrets, and of Earth. I had a green laser pointer, different methods than conventional for his example he cites the Corona spy and laid it against the edge of the cam- archaeology. satellite program of the early 1960s, era. The beam pointed exactly to Ep- The documentary film director that supposedly was unknown until it silon Canis Majoris (Adhara), a star of James Fox, who was also on Chasing was declassified in 1995. BZZZZT— magnitude 1.5 (brighter than the stars UFOs as “the believer” to Ben’s “skep- wrong answer! In 1971, Friedman’s in the Big Dipper) due south about 25 tic,” described his work as a UFO good buddy UFO skeptic Philip J. degrees up. This was the orb. McGaha documentary film producer (Out of the Klass, drawing upon what he learned came by and figured out how to focus Blue, I Know What I Saw) as promot- in his work as senior avionics editor the image. When that was done, the ing the fulfillment of the public’s “right at Aviation Week magazine, wrote Se- “orb” shrank down to a pinpoint size. to know” what is going on. Fox spent cret Sentries in Space (Random House), Ben McGee spoke on “Galactic a great deal of time talking about and which contains a detailed description of Deep Time, Xenoarchaeology, and the illustrating the news coverage that he the then top-secret classified Corona case for Physical Artifacts as ‘First Con- has received, and he showed some ex- program, explaining exactly what it is tact.’” He is best known as the skeptic amples of his “gorilla marketing” of his and how it works. Klass always insisted guy on National Geographic Channel’s films (I suspect he meant “guerilla”). that if there were any government se-

22 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer crets about UFOs, he would have haps we should applaud Friedman for talked about foo fighters, the Battle picked up on them long ago through having taken baby steps in the direction of Los Angeles, and some pre-Arnold his extensive network of sources. Fried- of truth. sightings in the Pacific before mov- man says that at least three out of over The talk by Alain Boudier was po- ing on to Roswell, which he accepts 100 supposedly leaked MJ-12 govern- tentially the most significant and news- as a genuine alien crash. The report’s ment UFO documents are authentic, worthy of the entire Congress. Boudier conclusions were that the U.S. mili- meaning he concedes that some en- said that his Aeronautical & Astro- ergetic hoaxer has produced the other nomical Association of France (3AF) is tary made its first UFO crash retrievals 97 percent. I say it’s 100 percent. We the most prestigious organization of its in 1941 (by the Navy, off the coast of almost agree. kind. It is not a government body but San Diego), and on February 26, 1942 Interestingly, Friedman did not equivalent to the American Institute of (by the Army, in the San Bernardino mention the Fish Map (a supposed Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA, Mountains). Supposedly a document extraterrestrial star map sketched by which had its own flirtation with UFOs from FDR mentions the retrievals. The Betty Hill), but did go on about Zeta1 over forty years ago, and thankfully not U.S. formed an “Interplanetary Phe- and Zeta2 Reticuli, the supposed home since). The UFO report of the 3AF nomena Unit” to manage these retriev- stars of the UFOnauts, according to Sigma Commission is set to be released als. This allowed the development of that map. For reasons that make no in a few months. This report, he prom- otherwise-unknown technology, which sense, he still clings to Zeta1 and Zeta2 ised, will be different than the “official” as the alleged home stars of the UFOn- history of UFOs. It appears that the in- he suggested was used to defeat Japan. auts. Once you concede that the Fish tent of the report is to push the entire You heard it right, folks: reverse-en- Map pattern means nothing, then the UFO chronology back, before Arnold, gineered alien technology was used to I Zetas mean nothing as well. Still, per- to include the World War II–era. He build the atomic bomb.

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Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 23 [ SCIENCE WATCH KENNETH W. KRAUSE Kenneth W. Krause is a contributing editor and “Science Watch” columnist for the S I. He may be contacted at [email protected].

Why Gay and Lesbian? A New Proposal

he persistence of homosexuality Consider “kin selection,” for exam- A former faculty member at Harvard among certain animal species, ple. As E.O. Wilson first suggested Medical and the Salk Institute, British Tincluding humans, has bewildered in 1975, maybe human homosexuals neuroscientist Simon LeVay favors in- scientists at least since the time of are like sterile female worker bees that stead evidence suggesting a suite of sev- Darwin. Why should same-sex attrac- assist the queen in reproduction. One eral “feminizing” genes (LeVay 2011). tion persist when evolution assumes study of homosexual men, known in In- The inheritance of a limited number of reproductive success? Does homosex- dependent Samoa as fa’afafine, revealed these genes, LeVay suggests, will make uality—especially among humans— that gays are significantly more likely males, for instance, more attractive to facilitate the intergenerational transfer than straight men to help their siblings females—and thus presumably more of genetic material in some other way? raise children. successful in terms of reproduction— Or perhaps it advances an entirely dif- But statistical significance isn’t the by rendering them less aggressive and ferent objective that justifies its more standard here. To satisfy the kin se- more empathetic, for example. obvious procreative disadvantage. Such lection hypothesis, each gay must ac- But nature makes mistakes, of count for the survival of at least two course. A few men in the family tree questions have long attracted gene- sibling-born children for every one he will inevitably receive “too many” fem- based explanations. fails to reproduce—no doubt, a difficult inizing genes and, as a result, be born benchmark to attain. In any event, rel- gay. Indeed, one Australian study dis- evant studies in the United States and covered that gender-atypical traits do United Kingdom have so far failed to tend to enhance reproduction. In this provide such evidence. sample, heterosexuals with homosexual As a possible explanation for male twins claimed to achieve more oppo- homosexuality, other researchers have site-sex partnerships than heterosexuals offered the “fertile female” hypothe- without homosexual twins—though sis. Here, a genetic tendency toward statistical significance was observed androphilia, or attraction to males— only among females. though problematic for men from an Even so, most contemporary expla- evolutionary perspective—is thought nations are not based solely in genetics. to enhance the reproductive success of Evidence suggests as well, for example, their straight, opposite-sex relatives by that a variety of mental gender traits rendering them hypersexual. are shaped during fetal life by varying At least two studies have claimed levels of circulating sex hormones. Es- results in support of the fertile female pecially during certain critical periods of model, which some researchers find ap- development, testosterone (T) levels pealing for a second reason. It is also ca- in particular are thought to cause the pable of explaining why homosexuality brain to organize in a more masculine persists at a constant but low frequency or feminine direction and, later in life, of no more than 8 percent in the general to influence a broad spectrum of gender global population. traits, including sexual preference.

24 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer For instance, women suffering from At the new model’s heart are sexual orientation, for example—but congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) sex-specific epigenetic modifications, not others. due to elevated levels of prenatal T and or epi-marks. Generally speaking, epi- According to the group’s model, other androgens are known to possess marks can be characterized as molecu- however, when sex-specific epi-marks gender traits significantly shifted to- lar regulatory switches attached to the manage to escape intergenerational ward masculinity, including lesbianism. backbones of genes that direct how, erasure and transfer to opposite-sex Importantly, female fetuses most se- when, and to what degree genetic in- offspring, they become sexually antag- verely affected by CAH and, thus, most structions are carried out during an or- onistic (SA) and thus capable of guiding heavily exposed to prenatal androgens ganism’s development. They are created the development of sexual phenotypes are the most likely to experience same- anew during each generation and are in a gonad-discordant direction. As sex attraction later in life. almost always “erased” between gener- such, Rice hypothesizes, “homosexu- Similarly, the bodies of male fetuses ations. ality occurs when stronger-than-aver- afflicted with androgen insensitivity syndrome—a condition in which the gene coding for the androgen receptor has mutated—fail to react normally to circulating T. As a result, these XY Although a number of other factors could be, fetuses will later appear as girls and, as adults, share an attraction to men. To and likely are, at play, it is now fairly well summarize, although a number of other established that prenatal androgen levels factors could be, and likely are, at play, it is now fairly well established that pre- have a substantial impact on sexual natal androgen levels have a substantial impact on sexual orientation in both orientation in both men and women. men and women. But three researchers working through the National Institute for Math- ematical and Biological Synthesis have recently combined evolutionary theory But because epi-marks are produced age SA-epi-marks (influencing sexual with the rapidly advancing science of at the embryonic stem cell stage of de- preference) from an opposite-sex par- both androgen-dependent sexual devel- velopment—prior to division between ent escape erasure and are then paired opment and molecular regulation of gene soma and germline—they can, in the- with weaker-than-average de novo expression to propose a new and provoc- ory, be transmitted across generations. sex-specific epi-marks produced in op- ative epigenetic model to explain both Indeed, some empirical evidence does posite-sex offspring.” male and female homosexuality (Rice et suggest that on rare occasions (though To summarize, Rice’s team argues al. 2012). not at scientifically trivial rates) they that differences in the sensitivity of XY According to lead author William will indeed carry over and thus mimic and XX fetuses to the same levels of T Rice at the University of California, the hereditary effect of genes. might be caused by epigenetic mech- Santa Barbara, his group’s hypothesis Under typical circumstances, Rice anisms. Normally, such mechanisms succeeds not only in squaring homosex- instructs, sex-specific epi-marks serve would render male fetuses compara- uality with natural selection but also ex- our species’ evolutionary objectives tively more sensitive and female fetuses plains why same-sex attraction has been quite well by canalizing subsequent relatively less sensitive to exposure. But proven substantially heritable despite sexual development. In other words, if such epigenetic labels pass between two powerful and confounding facts. they protect sexually essential develop- generations, they can influence the One, numerous molecular studies have mental endpoints by buffering XX fe- progeny’s sexual development as well. so far failed to locate associated DNA tuses from the masculinizing effects and And if they pass from mother to son markers and, two, concordance between XY fetuses from the feminizing effects or from father to daughter, sexual de- identical twins—about twenty percent— of fluctuating in utero androgen levels. velopment can proceed in an atypical is far lower than genetic causation might Significantly, each epi-mark will influ- manner. In those very exceptional cases, predict. ence some sexually dimorphic traits— offspring brain development can prog-

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 25 [SCIENCE WATCH KENNETH W. KRAUSE

ress in a fashion more likely to result in Finally, LeVay continues to favor eration, both sex-specific behavior and homosexuality. genetic explanations. The incidence of gene expression in the brain.” Rice’s observations and insights are homosexuality in some family trees, he The authors contend as well that fascinating, to say the least. Indeed, says, is more consistent with DNA in- their hypothesis can be rapidly falsified popular news reports have described heritance than with any known epigen- because it makes “two unambiguous a scientific community highly appre- etic mechanism. Moreover, he warns, predictions that are testable with cur- ciative of the new model’s theoretical we should never underestimate the rent technology.” Prediction one: Fu- power. But of course a great deal of difficulty of identifying genetic influ- ture large-scale association studies will criticism has been tendered as well. ences—especially with regard to mental not identify genetic markers correlated LeVay, for example, describes the traits. In such cases, complex polygenic with most homosexuality. Any such as- authors’ hypothesis generally as “a rea- origins are far more likely to be at play sonable one that deserves to be tested— than any single, magic genetic bullet. sociations found, they say, will be weak. for example by actual measurement Other neuroscientists have posed Prediction two: Future genome-wide epigenetic profiles will distinguish differences between homosexuals and non-homosexuals, but only at genes LeVay continues to favor genetic explanations. associated with androgen signaling or in brain regions controlling sexual The incidence of homosexuality in some family trees, orientation. Testing this second pre- he says, is more consistent with DNA inheritance diction, they confess, can proceed only with regard to lesbianism by comparing than with any known epigenetic mechanism. profiles of sperm from fathers with and without homosexual daughters. To my knowledge, Rice and his colleagues have never squarely addressed the question of whether, for philosoph- of the epigenetic labeling of relevant equally important questions. How ical or sociological reasons, we should genes in gay people and their parents.” can we test whether the appropri- Nevertheless, the new model is in fact ate epi-marks—probably situated in refrain from delving further into the “pure speculation,” LeVay told me, and the brain—have been erased? Is it too dicey subject of same-sex attraction. it never should have been reported—as simplistic to suggest identical or even Negative responses, I would argue, ex- some media have done—so grandiosely similar mechanisms for both male and pose both a tendency toward communal as “the cause” (or even as “a cause”) of female homosexuality? Why is it im- repression of individual thought and a homosexuality. portant to isolate the specific biological fundamental disrespect for the scien- More specifically, LeVay offers three causes of same-sex attraction? By doing tific enterprise. Such decisions should points of caution. First, he warns that so, do we run the risk of further stig- always be left to the scientists and those an epigenetic explanation is not to any matizing an already beleaguered popu- who fund them. After all, it was sci- degree implied from the current data lation? ence—not social concern—that con- on fetal T levels. When based on single Rice doesn’t deny his new model’s firmed the predominance of biology as measurements, he concedes, male and data deficit. Nor does he portray the the basis of homosexuality in the first I female fetuses may indeed show some epigenetic influence on same-sex at- place. overlap. But because T levels fluctuate traction as an exclusive one. His team throughout development in both males does, however, insist that epigenetics is References and females, allegedly anomalous indi- “a probable agent contributing to ho- LeVay, Simon. 2011. Gay, Straight, and the viduals might easily average completely mosexuality.” We now have “clear evi- Reason Why: The Science of Sexual Orientation. sex-typical T levels over time. dence,” they maintain, that “epigenetic New York: Oxford University Press. Second, LeVay sees “little or no ev- changes to gene promoters . . . can be Rice, W., U. Friberg, and S. Gavrilets. 2012. Homosexuality as a consequence of epige- idence” that epi-marks ever escape era- transmitted across generations and . . . netically canalized sexual development. The sure in humans. can strongly influence, in the next gen- Quarterly Review of Biology 87(4): 343–368.

26 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer The Chelyabinsk Event of February 15, 2013 On February 15, 2013, the million inhabitants of the central Russian city of Chelyabinsk experienced a half-megaton explosion from a disintegrating space rock. What happened, and how did the people of Chelyabinsk react?

DAVID MORRISON, ALAN HARRIS, and MARK BOSLOUGH Xinhua News Agency

Shortly after sunrise on condensation across the sky as it vapor- windows and injuring about 1,500 peo- February 15, a projectile entered the ized in the atmosphere. Its terminal ex- ple from flying glass and other debris. atmosphere over the Ural Mountains plosion, at an altitude of twenty-three There was no advance warning of travelling at more than eighteen kilo- kilometers, released energy equivalent this asteroid strike. With a diameter meters per second. It was about twenty to a couple dozen Hiroshima-sized of twenty meters (twenty meters is the meters (sixty feet) in diameter, or half atom bombs. When it exploded, the bo- best current estimate of the diameter, the diameter of the famous Tunguska lide (a very bright meteor that explodes based on the mass that would produce impact of 1908, which flattened a thou- in the atmosphere) was for a few sec- the ~0.5 MT energy of the bolide), sand square miles of Siberian forest. onds brighter than the sun. About two the Chelyabinsk impactor was smaller The rocky projectile, which came from minutes later the shock wave reached than most asteroids that have been de- the asteroid belt, left a trail of smoky the ground in Chelyabinsk, breaking tected by the telescopes of the NASA

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 27 The Chelyabinsk Event

Spaceguard Survey, which focuses on unexpected cosmic impact might be build nuclear weapons and rocket deliv- finding asteroids of about one hundred misinterpreted as an attack and trigger a ery systems. Those with long memories meters or larger. Furthermore, since nuclear exchange. This fear has hovered may remember that this area was the it approached Earth from very near over all subsequent studies of the impact target of the 1960 U-2 flight of Gary the direction of the sun, it could not hazard. Perhaps it was a legitimate con- Powers that was shot down by a Soviet have been seen by a ground-based op- cern during the Cold War, and maybe missile. Yet apparently neither the Rus- tical telescope of any size. It therefore this is still a danger if a cosmic impact sian military nor the public associated struck without warning, although the took place over the disputed territory the event of February 15 with a nuclear atmospheric explosion was measured of nuclear-armed antagonists such as attack. For this we can all breathe eas- by down-looking surveillance satellites. India and Pakistan. Chelyabinsk is near ier. The Chelyabinsk bolide had about a the heart of the Soviet defense industry, The people of Chelyabinsk initially tenth of the energy, and exploded more surrounded by facilities that design and did not know what hit their city. Vid- Nikulin Vyacheslav Itar-Tass Photos/Newscom

than twice as high, as Tunguska. The eos show that the brilliant light pass- blast energy was directed more sideways ing across the sky was ignored by most that downward. These factors resulted, people, with traffic flow unaffected. thankfully, in much less damage on the We would have expected drivers to pull ground. Perhaps most to the side of the road and get out to The explosion also produced a look at the trail of the bolide stretching shower of stony meteorites, of a type surprising is what across the sky, but this is not what the common among the asteroids (ordinary videos show. When the shock wave hit chondrite). These meteorites, distrib- did not happen: it was unexpected. Many people were uted over an impact region more than injured because they went to the win- one hundred kilometers long, were There was no panic dows to see what was happening. In at easily collected by local people because least one case a teacher initially told her most fell on snow, leaving obvious little reaction that this students to “duck and cover,” the old “entry wounds.” Cold War–drill. They hid under their Perhaps most surprising is what did was a nuclear attack. desks, but when nothing happened they not happen: There was no panic reac- got up and went to the window just in tion that this was a nuclear attack. As time for the shock wave. Photos of the far back as 1981, geologist Gene Shoe- damage showed that in many office maker and others had warned that an and apartment buildings, only a few

28 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer windows were blown out, while most and location, with measurements of the jects were traveling together in space or remained intact. Many of the videos bolide track and its altitude (about 23 were somehow related. The question of of the fireball posted on the Internet km) and velocity (more than 18 km/s) whether a “coincidence” is the result of were taken from automatic auto dash- at peak brightness. truly correlated events or just chance is board cameras, or dashcams, installed Fortunately, there seem to have a familiar theme to skeptics. by drivers in Russia to defend against been few suggestions that this was an Nature has provided us with several insurance fraud or police corruption in unnatural event such as a UFO, or the lines of evidence that the two events case of an accident. product of some secret weapons sys- were not related. Immediately following The response from the scientific tem. Such stories continue to circulate the event, meteor expert Peter Brown community was quick. Scientists have about Tunguska, even a century after of the University of Western Ontario been studying the impact hazard for it happened. For a couple of days there checked radar meteor data to see if the two decades, and they are well con- were claims that the object was a comet Earth had experienced unusual meteor KRT/Newscom Coauthor Mark Boslough (at right), visiting the lab of Prof. Viktor Grokhovsky at Ural Federal University in central Russia, displays one of the largest recovered pieces of the Chelyabinsk meteor explosion. Boslough, a noted impact physics expert from Sandia National Laboratories (and a CSI Fellow), flew to Chelyabinsk shortly after the bolide explosion and participated in a PBS NOVA documentary, “Meteor Strike,” about the historic event. It aired March 27, 2013, less than six weeks after the blast. Photo courtesy of Mark Boslough. Left photo, a resident cleans up some of the damage from the explosion. nected by the Internet. In addition, rather than an asteroid. In part these activity due to passage through a stream many residents of Chelyabinsk began came from the misunderstanding that of debris associated with either 2012 posting YouTube videos within an the white trail left by the impactor was DA14 or the Chelyabinsk bolide, and hour after the event. Within a few made of water droplets analogous to an found none. Richard Binzel of MIT, hours, the cause of the explosion was airplane contrail, rather than ablation who studies physical characteristics of identified as the stratospheric disinte- from the rocky object. Also, for the past asteroids, noted that the spectrum of gration of an incoming rocky object. century many Russian scientists have 2012 DA14 implies a composition of The initial Russian news reports spec- persisted in claiming that the Tunguska the asteroid radically different from the ulated that the asteroid was only a few impactor was a comet, even after most composition of the recovered meteorites meters in diameter and the energy was other scientists abandoned that idea in from the Chelyabinsk event. William only a few tens of kilotons. However, favor of a rocky asteroid. Bottke of the Southwest Research Insti- the data from a worldwide network of A curious aspect is the fact that Feb- tute in Boulder, an expert on the evolu- atmospheric pressure sensors and seis- ruary 15 was also the date of the clos- tion of asteroid orbits, noted that 2012 mic stations quickly established the est passage by Earth of a 30–40 meter DA14’s orbit is probably the result of energy of the explosion as between 300 asteroid called 2012 DA14. It flew just numerous close encounters with Earth and 500 kilotons. The response from 28,000 km above the Earth’s surface. and other inner planets, whereas the the U.S. orbital monitoring system was This remarkable coincidence seemed orbit of the Chelyabinsk asteroid was also remarkably fast. Three days after to call for an explanation, and many a relatively “fresh” transfer orbit from the event they released the exact time press stories suggested that the two ob- the main belt. Last and perhaps most

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 29 The Chelyabinsk Event

How big were these objects? Rocks from space The Russian rock, the mysterious Tunguska On Feb 15, two of the Solar System’s myriad rocky objects visited object of 1908 and DA14, in scale to a Earth the same day. One guest was expected – astronomers spotted football field it last year, but the meteor that fragmented over Russia was a surprise, one that caused hundreds of injuries from flying glass and Russian Tunguska debris. It rattled nerves and damaged buildings as well. rock object DA14 Boeing 747 49 ft. 130 ft. 150 ft. 232 ft. (15 m) (40 m) (46 m) (71 m) Chelyabinsk, Russia Tunguska site • The meteor that burned Can we protect the Earth from these things? DA14 up, then blew up, over Some say yes, with infrared telescopes to detect objects southern Russia was 49 and lasers to deflect them ft.(15 m) wide and massed up to 10,000 tons when it hit air; its speed was estimated to be at least 33,000 mph (52,108 kph) • It created a sonic boom and was brighter than the sun for a brief time • The Russian government said 270 buildings were DE-STAR Asteroid 2012 DA14, as predicted, sped past Earth above the damaged and at least Would take our sun’s Indian Ocean, moving from south to north in relation to Earth’s 1,000 people injured Sentinel proposal orbital plane; it made the closest pass of any large near-Earth rays, convert them into object since 1908, 17,150 mi. (27,600 km), at 17,400 mph Space-based telescope directed energy; deflect (28,003 kph) specifically designed to catalog or evaporate objects dangerous objects

Where have some 1 2 3 of the biggest, or 3 2 most infamous 1 objects struck the Earth? Chicxulub 66 million years ago Barringer 50,000 years ago Tunguska 1908

Source: NASA, Russian Federal Space Agency, Sky & Telescope, Space.com, B612 Foundation, UC Santa Barbara, AP Graphic: Robert Dorrell © 2013 MCT Note: This graphic is from another source and contains several relatively minor inaccuracies, but we nevertheless felt it useful. —Editor compelling, the direction of arrival of To NASA’s credit, this speculation was the two objects was radically different. immediately countered in a February 2012 DA14 approached Earth from Humans are 15 early-morning press conference, in an extremely southerly direction, and it hardwired to see which Planetary Science Director Jim would be impossible for another object Green stated unequivocally that there in a similar orbit to hit Earth in the far patterns and causal was no connection. Unfortunately, the northern hemisphere over Russia. The usual suspects are now accusing NASA Chelyabinsk asteroid approached from relationships, of a cover-up. Blogs dedicated to bash- the east. ing climate researchers and scientists Humans are hardwired to see pat- and when we who don’t accept neocatastrophism now terns and causal relationships, and witness such an have another pseudoscientific conspir- when we witness such an unlikely co- acy theory to promote. incidence it can be hard to accept it as unlikely coincidence We are left to ask just how unlikely is such. Within a few hours of the Rus- the coincidence of the two events hap- sian event, there was speculation on it can be hard to pening on the same day? Is the improb- Facebook that NASA was at fault, that ability of that coincidence sufficient to 2012 DA14 had undiscovered compan- accept it as such. overwhelm the strong observational ions, and that as the Earth rotated we evidence that they are unrelated? As is could expect more impacts in Europe. often the case in assessing the chances

30 Volume 37 Issue 4 | SKEPTICAL INQUIRER of such coincidences, the estimate of the events in question, we radically affect is “expected”; even one in a thousand probability depends to a great degree the apparent coincidence of the events. is a rare event. But on any given day, on how one frames the question. One As a final example, consider case 3 one can make an advance list of many can imagine three ways the question above. Given one of the events, again thousands of possible events, each of might be asked: (1) What is the chance take Chelyabinsk, we can ask, “What which has a one-in-a-thousand chance that these two events would occur on is the chance of another newsworthy of happening. With that many chances, a specific day, say Valentine’s Day or event of a kind that might plausibly be it is virtually certain that some of them some other specific “predicted” day, like related, occurring on the same day?” An will occur. So raising the question of the peak of a known meteor shower? event “that might plausibly be related” correlation is not frivolous, but the odds (2) What is the chance that two such could include another actual impact, events would occur within a day of one or the close fly-by of the Earth by an- are not so rare as to seek extreme explanations rather than conclude that it was another, on whatever day one or the other small asteroid, or perhaps a major n other chanced to occur? (3) What is the earthquake. Looking ten or fifteen years no more than a curious coincidence. chance that on the same day that one into the past or future, there have been of these events occurred, say the Chely- a number of real or imagined events. David Morrison is a planetary abinsk bolide, another uncommon and There was a very large bolide over In- scientist and astrobiologist who after a long career at newsworthy event also happened? Each donesia in 2009, a large meteorite that NASA is now director of the Carl of these probabilities can be estimated, notoriously failed to break up and ac- Sagan Center for the Study of and the numbers are radically different. tually hit the ground whole in Peru in Life in the Universe at the SETI The flyby of an asteroid like 2012 2007, and the asteroid 2008 TC3, that Institute. One of his areas of study is the risks DA14 has about the same probability was discovered in space before it hit the of asteroids and other near-Earth objects. He has been active in helping the public sift fact as the Chelyabinsk impact to within our Earth in October 2008. Although the from sensationalism about these and other uncertainties, which are at least a factor 2012 DA14 close flyby is claimed to be planetary science topics. He is a Committee of two. An impact somewhere on Earth roughly a once-per-century event, the for Skeptical Inquiry Fellow and a contribut- of an object the size of the Chelyabinsk much larger asteroid (99942) Apophis ing editor of the S I. Asteroid 2410 Morrison was named after him. projectile, like the pass of an asteroid will make a similarly close flyby in only of the size and at the distance of 2012 sixteen years, in 2029. Still other asteroids Alan Harris is a senior research DA14, happens about once every cen- flew by that failed to make headlines be- scientist retired from JPL, still tury on average, or about once in 40,000 cause they were discovered only after their pursuing research on aster- days, to one significant digit. If you start close flybys, but presumably would have oids, especially near-Earth asteroids. He has advised by selecting a specific date, like Febru- raised a question of correlation if they NASA and other government ary 15, 2013 (case 1 above), the chances had occurred on the same day as another agencies on the design of as- of both events happening are extraor- event. In the same time frame, we have teroid surveys and in assessing the progress dinarily small, one chance in 40,000 experienced two of the most destructive in inventorying the population of potentially hazardous asteroids. He also has a longtime squared, or about one in a billion. But earthquakes in history (Indian Ocean in interest in skeptical investigations, previously a more realistic question to ask is, as 2004 and Japan in 2011). publishing, along with Clark Chapman, “A Skep- in case 2 above, given that one of the Thus some newsworthy event, such tical Look at 9/11” in the September/October events, say the Chelyabinsk event, did as an actual atmospheric entry, a close 2002 S I and its follow-up, happen, what is the chance of the other asteroid flyby, or a major earthquake, “9/11: Perspectives from a Decade Later” in the November/December 2011 SI. Asteroid event, the 2012 DA14 flyby, occurring occurs every few years, say about once 2929 Harris was named after him. on the same day? The answer to that is, in a thousand days. So the answer to of course, just the chance of the other case 3 appears to be about one chance Mark Boslough is a physicist event on any given day, or 1 in 40,000. in a thousand that a second event, of a at Sandia National Laborato- ries, adjunct professor at the Even this estimate is highly “framed” kind that could raise a question of cor- University of New Mexico, and by the specifics of the particular events. relation, might occur within a day of the a Committee for Skeptical In- Suppose we asked what are the odds of event in question. quiry Fellow. His work on comet a fifty meter diameter asteroid passing The probability of the coincidence and asteroid impacts has been within 30,000 km of the Earth the same of the two events can range from one in widely recognized and been the subject of many recent TV documentaries. He is a vocal day, or of a 20 meter diameter asteroid a billion to one in a thousand, depend- critic of pseudoscience and antiscience, espe- passing within 15,000 km? The answers ing on how we frame the question. It cially global warming denial. Asteroid 73520 would be “Who cares? They didn’t.” By is noteworthy that no reasonable anal- Boslough was named after him. The opinions sizing a “box” specifically to just include ysis suggests that such a coincidence expressed here are his own.

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 31 Down the Garden Path: Faulty Thinking and Self-Delusion A Navy neurologist’s credulous venture into acupuncture advocacy serves as a useful case study. Here are twelve mistakes he made rambling down the garden path of self-delusion.

HARRIET HALL

uacks sell snake oil, and some of them really believe this training was being offered by the their products work. Medieval doctors who used blood- Navy, lending it the imprimatur of authority. His prior impression of acu- Qletting to balance the humors were convinced that it puncture was that it was a “mysterious worked. But would you expect an intelligent, highly edu- tool” that seemed to work, and instead of asking the critical questions, he said cated twenty-first-century medical doctor to be fooled (or he was looking for “a fundamental sci- to delude himself) into believing that a placebo was actually entific understanding of acupuncture” a highly effective treatment? Doctors ought to know better. and asking to see the supporting research and data. They’re supposedly trained to figure out what really works. Mistake #1: Prior prejudice. It sounds But they’re only human; they’re not exempt from the kind of like he already had a favorable opinion cognitive errors we are all prone to. of acupuncture and was predisposed to Curiously, people who accept it. make foolish mistakes are usually so sure of themselves that Mistake #2: Confirmation bias. He was they’re not at all shy about revealing their foolishness to looking only for confirmation rather the scrutiny of others. A Navy neurologist, Capt. Elwood than also looking for any disconfirming Hopkins, has conveniently described for us, in great detail, research. He wanted to understand how it worked; he was not asking whether it the process by which his faulty thinking led him into error. worked. He says his intellect was actively He posted a three-part article on field acupuncture” (Gorski 2008) based on the faulty evidence of one Air engaged by the teacher, a “charismatic “The Power of Acupuncture” (Hopkins master acupuncturist,” who laid a neu- 2011–2012) on Navy Medicine Live, the Force doctor, Col. Richard Niemtzow. The Army is using it to treat PTSD. rophysiologic foundation for how acu- official blog of Navy and Marine Corps puncture works. Health Care. It is a prime example of The Navy offers it too. Hopkins says that after forty years of Mistake #3: Getting information from a how even the most intelligent, educated biased source. person can ramble step by step down practicing neurology, “It was only nat- A master acupuncturist the garden path into self-delusion. Dr. ural to begin thinking about something is hardly likely to present a balanced Hopkins’s story can serve as a useful les- else.” (Why? Boredom? And why pick picture of the evidence for and against son to all of us. acupuncture?) When he got an email the source of his livelihood. In calling from his Specialty Leader announcing the teacher “charismatic,” he might Background the opportunity for Navy doctors to have suspected that he could be influ- Acupuncture has been increasingly learn how to do acupuncture, he sub- enced by that charisma to accept things accepted in military circles. The Air mitted his application that same day. he would not have accepted as readily Force is teaching its doctors “battle- He was undoubtedly impressed that from a dry, objective presentation of

32 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer scientific evidence about acupuncture’s to do: plenty of low-quality studies of works. It’s true that personal experience validity. acupuncture have been published. is the best way to convince someone Hopkins was told about local phys- In Part Two of his article, Hopkins there is an effect, but it’s useless for iologic changes in tissues stimulated by actually asks if the clinical effects might determining whether there really is an needles. He was not told that non-nee- be due to placebo. He wonders how we effect. To correct his statement: There dle “acupuncture” (with electrical stim- would know, since there is “no honest is nothing like solid scientific evidence ulation through intact skin or with sim- way” to do a properly controlled dou- to convince a scientist who knows bet- ple touching with toothpicks) had been ble-blind study. His teacher says it is ter than to accept personal experience shown equally effective, even when better to go by the functional outcome as evidence. acupuncture points were avoided. He rather than by patient reports of pain Mistake #5: Not understanding why sci- was told that needles caused reversal of levels. So far, so good. But then Hop- ence is necessary. It’s hard to believe tissue acidosis. (This is a claim I don’t kins throws science out the window that was written by someone who has remember hearing before, and I think it and never mentions placebo again. He gone through medical school and resi- is based on a couple of Chinese studies actually writes, “There is nothing like dency training. It’s a sad indictment of on animals. Even if true, its clinical rel- personal experience to convince one our educational system. evance would be questionable.) He was of an effect. It is a bit like not requir- told about the “gate control” hypothesis but was not told that after half a century of investigation it has not been accepted as the explanation for acupuncture’s effects. He was told about brain MRI We don’t need to do controlled trials to find findings and endorphin release but was not told that those same findings can out if it is effective to stop hemorrhages be elicited by placebo pills. I see them or set broken bones, but we do require as evidence of the mechanism for acu- controlled trials to find out if puncture’s placebo effects; he interprets them as evidence that acupuncture acupuncture works. “resets normal controls within the au- tonomic nervous system and maintains CNS homeostasis,” though it’s not clear what that even means; it sounds to me like typical alternative medicine pseudoscientific doublespeak. ing a double blind placebo controlled The instructor asks for volunteers Mistake #4: Cherry-picking the litera- cross-over study to establish that an and Hopkins offers himself as a guinea ture. The charismatic master acupunc- open parachute is more effective than pig. The instructor treats him for his turist snowed Hopkins with every shred a closed one.” Raynaud’s disease, telling him he be- of data that might possibly support a This sounds like it was written by lieves it is due to prior cervical injury. physiologic mechanism for acupunc- someone ignorant of science and logic As a neurologist, Hopkins should know ture, even providing “an extensive refer- rather than by a neurologist. His anal- that the term “Raynaud’s disease” refers ence library.” Did he include the studies ogy is a clichéd fallacy: We don’t accept only to idiopathic cases and if the con- showing that it doesn’t matter where the effectiveness of parachutes because dition is secondary to some instigat- you put the needles? Did he list the we have had personal experience jump- ing factor, it is called “Raynaud’s syn- high-quality trials showing that sham ing out of planes. I think he meant to drome.” Also, while repetitive trauma acupuncture works just as well? Did he say that not every claim requires proof from vibrating tools like jackhammers list all the negative systematic reviews by placebo-controlled trials, which is and prior injuries to the hands or feet or Edzard Ernst’s recent systematic true but irrelevant here. We don’t need have been recognized as causes of Ray- review of systematic reviews (Ernst et to do controlled trials to find out if it naud’s, “cervical injury” has not. There al. 2011) of acupuncture for pain? It is is effective to stop hemorrhages or set are studies showing that acupuncture is obvious that he cherry-picked the liter- broken bones, but we do require con- more effective for Raynaud’s than drugs ature to support his claims. This is easy trolled trials to find out if acupuncture or than no treatment, but they are not

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 33 convincing because they didn’t use pla- for even the quackiest of quack treat- and hypertension, less need for medi- cebo control groups. After the treatments. No matter how many anecdotes cation, better sleep, etc. He concludes ment, Hopkins’s symptoms resolved, we manage to accumulate, the plural of that “It is now evident to me that there and he became a believer. anecdote is not data; that’s why we do truly is a great benefit to acupuncture.” Mistake #6: Relying on his personal expe- science. He says it is safe (although the Ernst study [2011] documented rare but seri- rience. True believers ask us to “try it Mistake #9: The ancient wisdom fal- ous adverse effects including death). He yourself ” and they say, “I saw it with lacy. Hopkins is completely wrong says there are no contraindications, but my own eyes.” We have ample evidence about acupuncture being several thou- numerous lists of contraindications can that seeing something with our own sand years old (Kavoussi 2010), and be found on the Internet both on acu- eyes is often misleading, and that trying even if it were that old, length of use puncture websites and on mainstream something for yourself can interfere is no indication of truth. Astrology medical websites. He says the only time with your ability to objectively assess has been around for longer than acu- he would not use it was if the patient the evidence. puncture; does he think its validity has didn’t want it. He recommends that anyone caring for patients should consider adding this tool to his or her kit. Mistake #10: Relying on uncontrolled observations. His patients improved, but how many of them would have Astrology has been around for longer improved without any treatment or with a credible placebo that offered than acupuncture; does he think its some of the nonspecific treatment validity has been proven because it has effects of acupuncture? Mistake #11: Proselytizing on the basis of been “time-tested”? his own uncontrolled observations. Now that Hopkins has convinced himself, he wants to persuade others by simple assertions and by the same kind of unreliable “evidence” that convinced him in the first place. Mistake #12: Not doing his own research. Mistake #7: The post hoc ergo propter been proven because it has been “time- Hopkins might have checked tested”? Bloodletting to balance imag- PubMed and found a neat new study hoc fallacy. Hopkins assumes that inary bodily humors was “time-tested” (White et al. 2012) confirming previous because his symptoms improved after the for many centuries, but it turned out to evidence that acupuncture is no more treatment, they improved because of the do more harm than good. effective than placebo. It showed that treatment. He doesn’t consider that there Hopkins devotes Part Three of his patients were more likely to improve might be alternative explanations or con- article to recounting how he has imple- if they believed in acupuncture and founding factors. (For example, emotional mented acupuncture in his practice. He believed they got the real thing rather stress is a known trigger for Raynaud’s has given over one thousand acupunc- than a placebo, regardless of which symptoms.) ture treatments for everything from one they actually got. He might have His classmates were treated for var- headaches to prostatitis. (One wonders read what Yale neurologist and CSI ious conditions including nerve abnor- why a neurologist would be treating Fellow Steven Novella (2007) wrote malities and bladder inflammation, and prostatitis.) He claims a 90 percent after independently researching the they all “benefited.” He calls acupunc- success rate with many spectacular re- literature on acupuncture for himself ture a “safe and inexpensive tool that sponses, and even uses the word “mira- [see also Novella’s column, “What Is has been time-tested for several thou- cle.” He admits that some patients don’t Acupuncture?” S I, sand years.” respond, saying it is “never clear why.” July/August 2011]. He might have read Mistake #8: Relying on the personal expe- (I think I can guess why!) He reports the many negative systematic reviews, rience of others. Testimonials abound improvements in control of diabetes such as the one (Madsen et al. 2009)

34 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer showing that a “small analgesic effect have learned to recognize the common (December 15). Available at http://www. of acupuncture was found, which seems logical fallacies and the pitfalls. sciencebasedmedicine.org/index.php/acu puncture-invades-the-military/. to lack clinical relevance and cannot The One Big Mistake: Not Following the Hall, Harriet. 2012. Acupuncture, the Navy, and be clearly distinguished from bias” or SkepDoc’s Rule of Thumb. My rule, which faulty thinking (blog entry). Science-Based the systematic review of systematic Medicine (January 10). Available at http:// applies to critical thinking in every reviews by Edzard Ernst and others www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/index.php/ sphere: before accepting any claim, find (2011) showing “numerous contradic- acupuncture-the-navy-and-faulty-thinking/. out who disagrees with it and why. Once Hopkins, Elwood. 2011–2012. The power of tions and caveats.” He might have read you fully understand the arguments on acupuncture (blog entry in three parts). Navy the many skeptical articles on science both sides, only then are you qualified Medicine Live (December 22, December 29, blogs. He might have read The Skeptic’s and January 5). Available at http://navy- to judge whether the claim is credible Dictionary entry on acupuncture. He medicine.navylive.dodlive.mil/archives/1550; (and it will usually be glaringly obvious http://navymedicine.navylive.dodlive.mil/ might have consulted Quackwatch’s which side makes more sense). What if archives/1577; http://navymedicine.navylive. affiliate Acupuncture Watch. Even a jury listened to the prosecution but dodlive.mil/archives/1604. just reading the acupuncture article not to the defense? Ioannidis, J.P.A. 2005. Why most published research findings are false. PLoS Medicine on Wikipedia might have raised some When examined as a whole, the doubts in his mind. 2(8):e124. Available at http://www.plos available evidence fits the hypothesis medicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/jour- At this point, even if he were willing that acupuncture is an elaborate placebo nal.pmed.0020124. to look at the great mass of disconfirm- system. Using placebos on patients is Kavoussi, Ben. 2010. Acupuncture and history: ing evidence, he would probably not be unethical. As a retired Air Force colo- The “ancient” therapy that’s been around for several decades (blog entry). Science-Based capable of judging it objectively. Once nel and as a physician, I am saddened someone has become a true believer on Medicine (October 18). Available at http:// to see acupuncture infiltrate the military www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/index.php/ the basis of personal experience there is health care system. And I am saddened acupuncture-and-history-the-ancient-thera- rarely any hope, especially when belief is to see how Dr. Hopkins’s faulty think- py-thats-been-around-for-several-decades/. reinforced by social support and grateful ing led him astray. Madsen, M.V., P.C. Götzsche, and A. Hrób- jartsson. 2009. Acupuncture treatment for patient feedback. Let’s hope he doesn’t Our brains evolved for success in go on to seek training from a charis- pain: Systematic review of randomized clin- survival as hunter-gatherers on the ical trials with acupuncture, placebo acu- matic homeopath or a reiki master. plains of Africa, not for a modern world puncture, and no acupuncture groups. British I can understand why many doctors of science and computers. We prefer Medical Journal 338:a3115. Available at are less skeptical than they should be stories to statistics, personal anecdotes http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/ about most of the alternative medicine PMC2769056/. to scientific studies. System 1 thinking Novella, Steven. 2007. Does acupuncture work information they encounter: they are (fast, emotional, and intuitive) is the or not? (blog entry) Neurologica (September used to having predigested, accurate default mode; it comes more naturally 25). Available at http://theness.com/neuro scientific information presented to to us and requires much less effort than logicablog/index.php/does-acupuncture- them by experts. They were (sadly) not System 2 thinking (slow, deliberative, work-or-not/. taught to question what their teachers White, P., F.L. Bishop, C. Scott, et al. 2012. and logical). Not everyone reads the Practice, practitioner, or placebo? A multifac- said in medical school and residency. S I. Not everyone torial, mixed-methods randomized controlled They were taught about evidence-based can overcome the natural tendencies of trial of acupuncture. Pain 153(2): 455–62. medicine, but they were not taught to our flawed brains. Not everyone wants take prior probability into account: to try. But those who do can learn from I they are willing to accept the results of Dr. Hopkins’s bad example. controlled studies even when they are Harriet Hall, MD, a retired Air Force physician and incompatible with the rest of scientific Note flight surgeon, writes and knowledge. They rely on published in- This is adapted from an article originally educates about pseudosci- formation in medical journals, but they posted on the Science-Based Medicine blog under entific and so-called alter- a different title (Hall 2012). may not realize that half of the studies native medicine. She is a References contributing editor and fre- they read are wrong (Ioannidis 2005). quent contributor to the S I Even if they are good at critically eval- Ernst, Edzard, Mysong Soo Lee, and Tae- and contributes to the blog Science-Based uating scientific medical information, Young Choi. 2011. Acupuncture: Does it Medicine. She is author of Women Aren’t Sup- they may not be used to critically an- alleviate pain and are there serious risks? A posed to Fly: Memoirs of a Female Flight Sur- review of reviews. Pain 152(4): 755–64. alyzing information from the realm of geon and coauthor of the 2012 textbook Con- Gorski, David. 2008. Battlefield acupunc- sumer Health: A Guide to Intelligent Decisions. alternative medicine. They may not ture? (blog entry). Science-Based Medicine

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 35 An Interview by Indre Viskontas ON VIOLENCE and Chris Mooney Acclaimed Harvard psychologist and best-selling author Steven Pinker was interviewed by Indre Vis- kontas and Chris Mooney in a rare live edition of Point of Inquiry, the flagship podcast of our Center for Inquiry. This special episode was recorded before a live audience as part of the 2013 annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). Pinker, a longtime Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Fellow, is the author of eight books, including How the Mind Works, The Blank Slate, The Language Instinct, and most recently The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence has Declined. The interview focuses on the premise of his latest book: that we now live in the least violent and most peaceful period of human history, particularly surprising in light of tragic recent events in Newtown, Connecticut, and Boston. Here is the majority of that interview.

[See Pinker, “The Blank lence, we also have systems that our ancestors presum- Slate: The Modern Denial that can inhibit our urges ably lived—a foraging life- of Human Nature, S- toward violence. Whether style, without a government  I, March/April we behave violently depends and police force—the rates 2003]. We have urges like on which part of human of death in tribal warfare I V : What in- revenge and dominance that nature prevails, and this were really, really high— spired you to write a book can erupt in violence. I had balance can change with the higher than even in the about violence? to anticipate an objection I circumstances. twentieth century with our knew would come: If we do In any case, there can’t world wars. It’s a natural topic for any- have these tendencies, does be a theoretical debate over I made these observa- one interested in human that mean that we also have whether we’re doomed to tions, and I noted that there nature. The question, “Is to have a fatalistic attitude a constant rate of violence, can be no a priori debate our species innately violent toward war, peace, and because when you open about whether rates of vio- and war-loving, or innately violence? The worry is: if up the history books you lence can change. History peaceful and cooperative?” violence is in the genes—if find that rates of violence tells us that they can change. goes back literally hundreds we’re killer apes and we change. I gave a few exam- A few years later, John of years, maybe thousands. have homicidal DNA— ples of cases that I knew of Brockman, my literary agent So it naturally falls under then there’s nothing you can at the time (this was in the and the proprietor of Edge. the category of psychology. do about it. 1990s), of how rates of vio- org, asked 150 scientists, In my case, it began But this is a non sequi- lence had come down. For philosophers, and writers for How the Mind with my books tur. The answer is no, we example, from the Middle a couple of paragraphs on Works The Blank Slate and don’t have to be fatalistic. Ages to the present, at least the question, “What are you where I advocated the idea For one thing, human in England, there has been optimistic about?” I tweaked that there is such a thing as nature is a complicated a thirty-five-fold decrease in those relevant sections of human nature—some parts system. Even if we do have the rate of homicide. Or if previous work and posted of which can be rather nasty urges that can result in vio- you look at the kind of life them online.

36 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer photo credit: Henry Leutwyler Then I got a slew of cor- could have added that rates I think the first and Yes, that’s right, although respondence from experts of child abuse, approval foremost is government— the rational incentives and on violence who said, “You of spanking, domestic vi- Hobbes’s Theory of the the emotional reactions really understated the case. olence—all of them are Leviathan. A state with a can play off each other. If There are many other cases down.” I realized that no monopoly on violence can you live in a society where where there have been dra- one knew about all of these penalize incentives for ag- there is a rule of law for matic declines in violence.” facts and they’re pretty im- gression and exploitation by long enough, it changes These were from scattered portant. imposing penalties that can- your emotions. You become scholarly communities that The arithmetic trend cel out the anticipated gain. less likely to react with rage had nothing to do with each of violence, positive or If you are likely to be thrown if someone gives you the other. For example, scholars negative, is a basic fact. Ev- in jail after robbing a liquor finger or calls you a nasty in international relations eryone thinks it’s gone up. store, then you think twice name. You don’t challenge who study war and peace But in fact, it’s gone down. about doing it. That circum- them to a knife fight; you said things like, “Gee, you It also posed two delicious stance makes everyone more walk away. In the book, I know, it used to be that challenges to a psychologist. peaceful, because not only talk about the interplay be- countries in Europe would One is to understand why are you disincentivized from tween these rational calcu- start two new wars a year has there been so much vi- committing aggressive acts, lations and what you do and for 500 years. As of 1945, olence in the past; the other but you know that your ene- don’t do intuitively. why that went to zero.” Military is to understand it has mies are too. V : One thing I love about your book is how you couch a lot of these issues within the prisoner’s dilemma “The arithmetic trend of violence, framework. Describe how we might apply it to issues positive or negative, is a basic fact. such as gun control. There is Everyone thinks it’s gone up. a vocal set of people saying, “I need a gun because every- But in fact, it’s gone down.” body else has a gun; so don’t take away my right to have a gun.” But this then leads to more guns and potentially more violence. historians have just been as- come down. These are the It has a reverberating tonished at the fact that war two psychological questions effect: you no longer have In the book, I allude to a between developed coun- that got me going. to maintain a belligerent version of the prisoner’s tries has pretty much ceased C M : You paint the macho stance to deter your dilemma—I call it the to exist. past as a world characterized enemies, because the gov- “pacifist’s dilemma.” It has Other scholars said, “It’s by brutal violence. What is the ernment is doing it for you. the same structure but with not just England where causal reason for some kind You no longer have to pur- different labels in the cells. I the homicide rate plunged of change? sue vengeance after the fact use it as a way of answering since the Middle Ages. at all costs, because again, the somewhat mysterious

It’s also Italy, Germany, There are a number of rea- you can outsource that to question of why multiple Switzerland, and Scandi- sons, in part, because there the government. So, expla- historical forces all seem to navia.” Others said, “It’s are a number of causes of nation number one would be pushing rates of violence not just war between rich violence. Neurobiologists be the Leviathan. We see down. countries that has declined. and neuroethologists have that the remaining zones Chris asked, “What are If you look at statistics on long known that there’s no of violence in the world are some of the causes?” and war worldwide, since 1990, single thing called “aggres- also zones of anarchy. I explained one of them. they have been going down, sion”; there are multiple Among the others are trade M : But that’s assuming down, down; fewer people systems in the brain that and commerce, which, everyone’s being rational: are killed in war than ever make organisms, including in terms of game theory, before.” Homo sapiens, aggressive. that they are calculating has people playing more Finally, one of my col- So you’d expect there to be costs and benefits to some positive-sum games and leagues in the psychology multiple causes that would extent. But isn’t violence few zero- or negative-sum department said, “Well, you drive them down. largely emotional? games. If you have networks

38 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer STEVEN PINKER INTERVIEW]

melt their assault rifles and of trade and exchange, it beneficial to the aggressor. violent than other West- turn them into iPads? becomes cheaper to buy Now over the long run, ern democracies. Our rate stuff than to steal it; and since aggressors can become of homicide is two to five I don’t have an easy answer other people become more victims and vice-versa— times higher than that of to that question, because as valuable to you alive than empires rise and fall—ob- other Western democra- you point out, the guns are dead. If you have a rise of jectively everyone would cies. We start more wars, out there. The gun lobby, commerce and trade, the in- be better off if everyone and thirty-three of the fifty having created the situation centives change and people could forswear violence. It states have capital pun- now says, “Well, there’s get less violent. really is a better way to live ishment, which has been nothing we can do about A third cause is the than to blow things up and abolished everywhere else. it and so let’s make it even expanding circle of sympa- destroy flesh, and life, and The answer, I think, goes worse by having even more thy. As we consume more suffer all the other nasty back to settlement patterns people get guns to defend fiction, history, and jour- consequences of war. The in American history. themselves against all those nalism, and engage in more dilemma is: How do you The United States isn’t people with guns.” person-to-person contact, get the other guy to renounce a country; it’s at least two V : I’m no expert on it becomes a little harder to violence at the same time countries. The rates of vi- the statistics behind gun use dehumanize other people. as you do? This is where olence in the northern and and gun violence in the U.S., They expand your sense of the game-theoretic calcula- coastal states are still higher but I’ve noted that there are empathy and decrease your tion comes in. If I beat my than those of Europe, but different ways of looking at taste for cruelty. swords into plowshares, and not as high as those in the these statistics. For example, I think the empower- the other guy keeps his as West and South. It’s also if you look at the number of ment of women has been a swords, I could find myself the blue states that have gun owners in the U.S. versus, factor. Societies and eras in at the wrong end of a rather abolished capital punish- say, Canada, the numbers which women have more unpleasant confrontation. So ment and which tend to are pretty equivalent. But the rights, and more of a voice, how do we both be sure to be more dovish in foreign number of guns per owner, tend to have less macho beat our swords into plow- policy. well, there’s a huge difference. violence. And reason and shares at the same time? So in part, this is a science have played a role; That is the human di- question about the Amer- That’s an important point as people intellectualize the lemma. It’s like disease or ican South and West. The that’s absolutely correct. human condition, they look hunger. It’s a part of the simplest answer is that they Moreover, consistent with at violence as a problem to human condition that sucks. lived in a condition of an- your statistic is that the be solved rather than as a Fortunately, we are smart, archy until fairly recently, number of households with game to be won. we can gradually, in bits historically speaking. The guns in the United States I list these different rea- and pieces, try to improve cliché, “The closing of the has gone down, even though sons that violence has gone our condition. One of the American frontier,” refers to the number of guns has down. It’s not a reduction- ways that we do it is to try an event that took place as gone up. There are a smaller istic, simplistic theory. But to incentivize everyone to recently as in the 1890s. and smaller number of why have different forces all forswear violence at the Often in anarchic soci- people who own bigger and pushed in the same direc- same time. The common eties, you see a culture of bigger arsenals. tion? Is there some kind of denominator between these honor developing. You have V : This makes me mysterious arc that bends pacifying forces, I suggest, is to avenge any insult, regard- nervous because, of course, toward justice? that they all jigger with the less of the cost to you, and our weapons are getting more The answer is no. payoffs in the matrix and adopt a belligerent stance, sophisticated. So even if the There’s a more mundane turn the pacifist’s dilemma because it’s your only pro- overall number of violent peo- explanation—and now into more of a rational actor tection. This stance got em- ple in the population declines, we get to the pacifist’s circumstance in which we bedded into southern and it takes fewer and fewer to dilemma—which is that all opt for the mutual non- western American culture, inflict more and more damage violence is, in an objective violence cell. whereas the Europeans were as we saw in some of these sense, a really bad thing. It’s M : Why does the U.S. beaten into submission by recent mass shootings. How a nuisance; it’s a plague; it’s seem to be such a violent their autocratic kings many do we fight that growth and a pestilence. Because even place compared to other centuries ago. these outliers of people who though it’s always tempting countries? are particularly violent? to an aggressor to exploit a V : How do we get the victim, it’s far more damag- By a number of criteria, South or the areas in which I think guns themselves ing to the victim than it is the United States is more there are the most guns to probably aren’t the main

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 39 place to look for an answer; round-the-clock coverage ery? Forget that. Compete the interests of that country, although of course there are of Sandy Hook, the cable on American Idol? Uh-uh. including waging war when many common-sense gun news networks didn’t say, There is only one guaran- that’s the rational thing to control measures that any “Oh, and by the way, we’ve teed way to become famous, do. That’s the category of sane person would agree had another Sandy Hook and that is to kill a lot of “violence as a means to an should be implemented. But and-a-half today,” and then innocent people. end”; I don’t expect a sex the U.S.-Europe difference on Thursday, “We’ve had We’ve set up that incen- difference. is not just a difference in the another Sandy Hook and-a- tive structure. It’s hard to But when it comes to availability of guns. If you half today again,” and every know how to reverse it. stupid, macho violence— subtract out all the gun ho- single day since then. V : Is that an argu- knife fights over a parking micides in the United States Two categories of vio- ment for the media not cover- space, road rage, fights over and you just look at the lence are peculiar in that ing these mass shootings or a pool table, wars over na- homicides committed with, they generate a massive these sorts of large events? tional honor where nothing say ropes, candlesticks, and amount of publicity, dis- Or people not paying for the is at stake except national daggers, we still kill people cussion, and concern while coverage? honor, campaigns of blood- at a higher rate. inflicting relatively little thirsty conquests, and I don’t want to endorse damage. One is rampage I think it is an argument for insane wars of aggression— anything that the NRA shootings, and the other making news coverage and that’s more of a guy thing. says, but there is some truth is terrorism. The worst policy discussion more in In non-state societies, to the idea that it really terrorist attack in history, line with those statistics— anthropologists have doc- is people who kill people the September 11, 2001, both the round-the-clock umented a correlation between competition between societies and the state of “In general, when you have anarchy, women’s rights. Societies that are more egalitarian you have high rates of violence, tend to be less warlike. It’s hard to know what’s cause so if you precipitously remove government, and effect, but there is a correlation. you end up with violent chaos.” The societies that control women, control their reproduction by selling them off as brides, by protecting their rather than guns that kill attacks, killed 3,000 people; coverage of rampage shoot- chastity, by forcing them people. That’s why I think and in the United States ings, and the response to to become round-the-clock the psychology and so- every year, 16,000 people terrorism. Our society was baby factories tend to have ciology of violence is more are killed in homicides. turned upside-down, and more violence. important than just the It’s not a coincidence. we started two foreign wars Also, in societies where weaponry. Why do people blow them- as a response to terrorism. women have more auton- In talking about ram- selves up? Why do people omy, the first place they ex- M : Why do more rights page shooters, there’s not shoot up a school and then for women mean less aggres- ercise that autonomy is their much you can do; but to be shoot themselves? Well, it’s sion in society? own sexuality, their own honest, as far as violence the only guaranteed way to reproduction. In places with goes, it’s not that much get the world’s attention. There are several motives women’s rights, women of a problem in the seem- As Adam Lankford, who for violence, and in some have fewer babies, they have ingly callous sense of raw just wrote a book on suicide there’s not much of a sex them later, and as a result, numbers. The Sandy Hook terrorism, points out, let’s difference. If you’re the those places are less likely shooter killed, what, twen- say you wanted to become head of state, you’re defend- to have youth bulges, which ty-six people altogether? famous nationwide, even ing your country’s interests are a risk factor for violence. But every day in the United worldwide, what could you among other hostile states. Another thing that goes States, more than forty peo- do to guarantee it? Make Any woman running a along with women’s em- ple get killed. After all that a great scientific discov- country is going to act in powerment is that societies

40 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer STEVEN PINKER INTERVIEW]

media we engage in so much are less likely to murder prove the rules. In general, something a wee bit wrong now—say, Twitter—put a female newborns or abort when you have anarchy, you personality onto people from with slavery after all, even female fetuses. If you’ve have high rates of violence, around the world. I connect though we’ve been doing it got lots of babies coming so if you precipitously re- with people on Facebook who for thousands of years”? out, and lots of them are move government, you end are in Africa whom I would The most plausible boys—well, that leads to up with violent chaos. In never have a personal rela- candidate is that the sec- trouble down the line. You Iraq, just toppling Saddam tionship with, but on Face- get youth bulges of unem- Hussein’s regime and not ond half of the eighteenth book, I see pictures of their ployed, unattached young putting an effective govern- century saw the rise of kids and pictures of their life. men; and that means trou- ment in its place opened the affordable printed media And on Twitter, I hear their ble. Societies where women ground for a lot of internal and the rise of literacy. If witty, pithy remarks. Do you control their reproduction violence. Likewise, when think that some of these so- you look at what happened are societies that have fewer the often oppressive, but at cial media technologies might before that era—you can’t of these youth bulges. least minimally competent be pacifying in the end? do experiments, so you do V : Are there ex- colonial governments gave the next best thing and you way to utterly incompetent I suspect over the long-term ceptions to the decline in at least try to identify some kleptocracies and tribal fa- they might be, because sim- violence, for example, in exogenous, putative cause countries in Africa? And do voritist regimes, you ended ilar things have happened that occurs prior in time those cases help explain the up with a lot of violence in in the past. One of the puz- to the punitive effect—the decrease? countries in the developing zles I take up in the book world. is why in the second half only one that I was able to There are exceptions. It’s M : What do you think of the eighteenth century, find is a massive increase in not a monotonic [stable, about Jared Diamond’s char- the world made a quantum technologies of cosmopoli- neither increasing nor acterization of tribal societies leap in humanity. That was tanism. decreasing] nor uniform as in a state of perpetual the era in which countries You had national and worldwide phenomenon. stopped disemboweling warfare? international post offices— One example is the huge people for criticizing the the email and Twitter of increase in violent crime in Perpetual warfare is a bit king and stopped having the United States and most of an exaggeration, but the public executions. The first the time. You had a huge other Western countries observation that the rates movements to abolish slav- increase in the economic ef- starting in the 1960s. An- of death and warfare are ery got traction, debtors’ ficiency of publishing books other is the heyday of geno- very high is correct. I have prisons were abolished, and pamphlets; you had an cidal totalitarian regimes a chapter in the book where and they stopped burning expansion of the press. It in the middle decades of I go over every quantitative heretics at the stake. Blood was cheaper to travel from the twentieth century—the estimate I could find from sports like dog fighting city to city. These cosmo- glory days of Hitler, Stalin, were abolished. You had the the ethnographic literature, politan forces back then, I and Mao. A third is the and also from the archaeo- first articulate statements of think, led to increasing hu- rise in civil wars following logical literature, on rates of women’s rights, of children’s manitarian sensibilities. decolonization in much of violence in non-state societ- rights, of gay rights, all in the developing world. And ies. They span a range; not the eighteenth century. Our There was a second wave even though rates of war all of the societies are at war own prohibition of cruel of that in the 1950s with in Africa have gone way all the time; some are more and unusual punishment in the rise of television and down over the last couple of violent than others. But if the eighth amendment to electronic media. The Viet- decades, many sub-Saharan you look at the average, it’s the Constitution occurred nam War was the first war African countries still have very high. So Diamond is smack-dab in the middle of to be brought into people’s high rates of homicide. this process. right. And Napoleon Cha- living rooms in real time; This is not some myste- So what happened in gnon, another person who’s and it was the first war that rious force that just brought been attacked for making the second half of the had a substantial antiwar violence down monotoni- such claims, also has the eighteenth century? Why movement as it was pro- cally everywhere. But at numbers on his side. did the world wake up and least some of these excep- suddenly realize, “Hey, gressing—which I suspect I tions are exceptions that V : Some of the social you know, there might be was not a coincidence.

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 41 The Queen Mary Is Not Haunted (But I Understand Why You Think She Is) The RMS Queen Mary, a ship of enormous historical import, has been transformed into a roadside attraction whose owners profit off the allure of “ghosts.” Her glorious factual history has been brushed aside in a bid to pander to eager ghost-hunting tourists who aren’t thinking critically about the claims.

JOHN CHAMPION

“For me, it is far better to grasp the universe as it really is I would call that a “hypothesis.” Once than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.” there is a hypothesis or a working model explaining the properties of ghosts, —Carl Sagan, e Demon Haunted World then one could go about controlled experimentation. No one is at that stage ’ve had a fascination with classic ocean liners for most though—because, again, ghosts have no known properties. So, no, the things that of my life. In particular, I have had a sincere awe for the are claimed as “evidence” of ghosts (orbs IRMS Queen Mary (QM) since I first stayed on board in photos, mysterious sounds on a tape, in the early 1980s—well after her retirement in 1967 a creaky door) can’t hold up as scientific and subsequent conversion into a hotel. She is a thing of evidence until a working hypothesis is established. beauty—a near-perfect expression of the industrial design Furthermore, of course, anecdotes are aesthetics of the era (conceived in 1929, launched in 1934, not evidence. An anecdote is a personal maiden voyage in 1936). To say that we don’t make them story of a personal experience. It’s not a reliable way to make a judgment about like we used to is an insulting understatement. the validity of a claim. Our minds are What Is a Haunting? Anytime in the last few years that I subject to bias, misunderstanding, mis- have even mentioned the Queen Mary, I suppose the first thing to do is to interpretation, and conflation. e more the immediate reaction from people make a concise case for the problem anecdotes that accumulate don’t lead to within earshot is, “Ooh! I’ve heard that of claiming that anything is “haunted.” the credence that the claim is true; it’s she’s really haunted!” My first reaction is a No, I do not believe in ghosts, and at simply more “noise.” Personal experience kind of amusement: how could one even the same time a truly skeptical position is usually the absolute worst way to tell the difference between something must concede that this is not an outright make a judgment about the veracity of being really haunted as opposed to fakely rejection of the possibility that ghosts any claim. haunted? My next reaction is usually a might exist, only that they haven’t been So that’s a little taste of why I don’t buy sigh of, “Here we go again,” and my final discovered yet. e problem is that there it when people make the “ghost” claim, reaction more recently has been a kind is no agreement among ghost believers but there are far better sources to brush of offense taken on behalf of the ship. I as to what they actually are. If I had up on your scientific understanding, such suppose that since an entire generation to aggregate just from popular ghost- as Carl Sagan’s e Demon-Haunted has passed since the Queen Mary was hunting stories, I could paint a picture World, Michael Shermer’s Why People in service, the popular understanding of that ghosts are: sound-producing, light- Believe Weird ings, and 50 Popular her has morphed into something a little producing, simultaneously corporeal and Beliefs at People ink Are True by Guy weird and otherworldly rather than noncorporeal representations of “energy” P. Harrison. While you’re at it, check something that was a practical means (Electric? Chemical? Nuclear? Magnetic?) out Brian Dunning’s excellent (and of (elegant) travel. I write this article to that can manipulate electronic devices, short!) dismantling of ghost claims in express my own dismay but also to try temperature, and phys ical bodies— “Do Ghosts Exist?” on his blog at www. to piece together why the QM has this except for when they don’t. ere are so skepticblog.org/2012/08/30/do-ghosts- persistent aura as the “haunted ship” and many definitions and assumed qualities exist. ere’s much more that can be said to make a plea to emphasize the real of ghosts that it is impossible to come here, but I want to get back to the Queen history of the ship as part of her future. up with a working definition. In science, Mary.

42 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer History some low-rent special effects. Tourists e Queen Mary was one of the crowning see the magnificent first-class pool area achievements of the art and industry of but not in any state resembling its days shipbuilding. She was created and sailed at sea. is version is fading, cracking in an era after the Edwardian opulence and filled with fog. e real-life of ships like the Titanic and Lusitania accident with the Curacao—in which and just before the jet age had arrived. 239 sailors perished—is played out for She’s a blend of old hand-craftsmanship maudlin drama in a former mail hold with the speed and technology of that plays the part of the “bow.” modern industrial achievement. To put it in twenty-first-century terms, she was The Problem with the “Haunting” a marvel of art and design in the way On any night at the Queen Mary, groups that the space shuttle amazed onlookers of tourists who are interested can also thirty years ago or the 787 Dreamliner take a guided tour from a “paranormal” and Airbus 380 do today. She held the expert guide. ey bump around wav- speed record for crossing the Atlantic ing electronics of dubious utility in the for nearly two decades and carried more air hoping for some “evidence” of an troops at a single time than any other apparition. ey can explore otherwise vessel during World War II. off limits sections of the ship and really After an exceptional service history take their time exploring while asking (and with the speed and economy of each other, “Did you hear something?” air travel relegating ocean travel to If you’re more interested in learning vacation cruising), the QM was set for the true history of the ship, your retirement in Long Beach as a hotel/ options are a bit more limited. ere is conference center/tourist attraction. a “behind the scenes tour” (which seems Since 1967, tourists have visited her to be confused at various times with the in dry dock and gotten a small taste of “Golden Age” tour and others) as well what travel was like when the “Queens” as a self-guided audio tour, which is ruled the seas. in desperate need of renovation itself. Retirement, sadly, would be anything Depending on the guide you have for but peaceful. As soon as she pulled into the “behind the scenes” tour, you may port for the last time, the Queen Mary have a dramatic interpretation of events was subjected to numerous “renovations” on board or a rote telling of facts and and conversions that would forever figures. Much of this can be gleaned by mar her interior. Entire sections have a read of any Queen Mary books or the been gutted, rooms and artifacts lost to Wikipedia page about her. history, artwork destroyed, and other So let’s think about this. e Queen blunders of huge proportion. e ship’s Mary is actively promoted as a “haunted” operations and ownership have changed attraction (and I’m sure they are making hands numerous times in the years since, a decent amount of money from that), and she has struggled economically. In but a serious, concerted effort to many respects, the experience has been preserve her factual history is somehow “dumbed down” with subpar restaurants pushed to the wayside. At best, it’s an (with some notable exceptions), chintzy annoyance to those of us who want to events, and history taking a backseat to understand and appreciate this vessel exploitative tours—the most prominent from her service and the stories of the and most egregious of which is the people on board. At worst (and this is “ghost” tour. what is happening more often than not) In the early 2000s, the “Ghosts and the “haunting” is such a priority that it Legends Tour” was installed. It makes leads to actual damage of those historic use of some very interesting (and areas, preventing further and future otherwise off limits) spaces of the ship. preservation. One historian points out Fantastical tales of the paranormal are that on this massive vessel only about woven into the ship’s actual history and six public rooms remain intact (though presented with a theatrical flair and without much of their original art or

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 43 the hundreds of thousands who occupied the same space years, decades before. She makes great noises, even sitting still, as the metal skin holding her together expands and contracts and pieces jostle around after seventy-five-plus years of settling. We don’t get that in our daily experience in the interactions we have with architecture. We don’t stop to think about who came before us when walking into a conventional building lit up by fluorescent glare. I really get it. When I’m on board, my imagination is firing at full steam. If I’m quiet, I can’t help but hear what the ship must have been like when Mirrorpix/Newscom operating on the Atlantic. If I look Queen Mary ship swimming pool in the 1930s, “ground zero” for supposed paranormal activity. closely enough, I can see the throngs of people who populated her decks during furnishings). Others were ripped out consuming. is, to me, is why we decades of heroic crossings. entirely, reconfigured or converted for can’t get enough of those ghost stories I draw a line, though. It’s a priority for other vaguely defined uses. and why people are utterly convinced me to draw a sharp distinction between e First Class Pool is “ground zero” that their own experiences (anecdotes fact and fantasy. I want to honor the for the alleged paranormal activity so based on misinterpretation, strongly people who built and sailed on this many ghost enthusiasts are seeking. held predisposition, and the excitement magnificent vessel by remembering ( e Second Class Pool has been of fantasy) are proof positive of the who they really were and what they utterly destroyed in one of the many supernatural. really did. ere are plenty of stories “conversion” episodes.) At the time, e Queen Mary was built to be in there to entertain and educate. I don’t the pool was a stunning room at sea motion. She feels like she is in motion want to taint that memory by confusing with gleaming tiles and art deco style. even when she is standing perfectly their actual lives with a creepy “ghost” Today, the ghost tour trades on the still in dry dock. e extreme shear of story traded for the value of a ticket to a pool’s decrepitude, profiting off of the the decks (the curve that is apparent in roadside tourist attraction. “creepy” allure of cracked tiles, warped the longest stretches of corridor) plays I’m disappointed to think that the floors, and broken fixtures. What is the with your normal perception of space. Queen Mary presents an either/or incentive to restore this magnificent We’re not accustomed these days to proposition. rough mismanagement space to its original condition when a being inside structures with such tight and the chase after a quick buck, the quick buck can be made off of ghost compartments, such detail in wood fantasy-prone among us have won out tours? When the pool finally falls and metal constructed with an artistic with the tourist attraction to the demise through (the lower supports have been eye but, underneath, all machine. Its of historic preservation. Ghost stories removed), maybe that will just add to power—even with the engines now are fine when they are presented as such. the narrative for the cynical exploitation long dormant—is palpable through the e confusion of science and history with of the space. deck plating. Every rivet, every section fiction, though, gets us further and further of carpet, every porthole was witness to away from the ability to relish in and truly I But I Get It... the widest variety of intensely human explore our own recent history. I can’t get enough of the Queen Mary. I’ll experience. From the builders who put John Champion is a video stay on board at every opportunity and her together to the crew who stayed producer in Los Angeles and sign up for any tour, event, or promotion with her in extreme circumstances supporter of CFI–Los Ange- les and IIG West. He is the they have. Unlike so many other historic to the celebrating passengers, every cohost/producer of Mission relics, the Queen Mary feels very much square centimeter has been a part of Log: A Roddenberry Star Trek alive, not like a stuffy museum piece that a pageant of history. One can’t help Podcast, which explores the can only be experienced at a distance. but stand in a room onboard and morals, ethics, and philosophies presented in Star Trek. It is immersive, impressive, and totally immediately conjure up the images of

44 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer Investigating Plagiarism in New Age Books Shoddy research is almost expected in New Age books, but an investigation of a supposed reference work on vampires found and documented something even worse—rampant plagiarism.

BENJAMIN RADFORD

n early 2011 I published a book titled Tracking the about 200 hits. The top hit was from Chupacabra: The Vampire Beast in Fact, Fiction, and Folk- a website called UnknownExplorers. com. There was no other information Ilore. A few weeks after it was released, I happened to be in on Espinoza; the same set of sentences a local store looking for books to add to my skeptical library. appeared on each site, with no variation, which struck me as odd. Surely One particular tome caught my eye: tence on page 137: “In 2005, Isaac Es- Espinoza would at least have his own The Element Encyclopedia of Vampires: pinoza spent millions of his own money website, or have appeared in media arti- An A–Z of the Undead. As an aficionado trying to hunt down the chupacabra. cles by one of the many researchers and (and investigator) of monsters, vam- He lived in the jungles of South Amer- journalists who accompanied him. pires, zombies, and the like, I’m always ica for eight months with a team of re- Not only that, but there was another interested in seeing new books, espe- searchers, video and print journalists, clue that something wasn’t right: The cially if they offer some new informa- and local guides.” poor grammar was identical. “Isaac tion on the topic. The book was about I was puzzled by this. In my five Espinoza spent millions of his own 650 pages long and would surely con- years of thorough research into the money” doesn’t make sense; Espinoza tain something new, so I picked it up. chupacabra I’d never heard of this may have spent millions of dollars of When I see a new book on the Isaac Espinoza researcher. If he spent his own money, but “money” is an paranormal or unexplained I often flip millions of dollars and eight months unquantified noun; one cannot spend through to find a discussion or two of in the jungles of South America, he millions of “moneys.” Had both the topics with which I am familiar, so that definitely seemed like someone who original author (whoever it was) and I can get an idea of how well-researched I’d have heard of (and probably should Cheung written an identically incorrect the book is. If it’s fairly accurate I’ll buy have interviewed!). The author, The- sentence? Or was there more involved? it, but if I see many obvious factual and resa Cheung, surely hadn’t just made My skeptical sense was tingling.1 logical errors I know the book is gar- him up in a reference work published It seemed clear that Cheung had bage. by HarperCollins. I began to ques- simply cut and pasted the information So I naturally first turned to a topic tion my own research and scholarship: about Espinoza from the web into the I am intimately familiar with, a sub- How could I have missed Espinoza’s chupacabra entry in the encyclopedia ject that I am, for better or worse, the research? she was writing. If she was so indiffer- world’s top expert on: the vampire beast I knew I hadn’t come across Espi- ent to factual accuracy in her book that el chupacabra. I found a significant entry noza in the dozens of books and articles she would use someone else’s words on it spanning four pages. Some of the and interviews I’d done; perhaps an In- without bothering to check to see if information was right, much of it was ternet search would solve the mystery. the information was true (much less wrong or misleading, but there was one I did a Google search for “Isaac Es- “credit” them), then what did that say thing that jumped out at me—this sen- pinoza” and “chupacabra” and found about her other research?

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 45 I photocopied the chupacabra entry in citations as that author’s words. (under “Reported Attacks,” p. 137) and skimmed it with different colored Specific citation and reference styles was paraphrased (with some ver- highlighting pens. Using my own ch- of course vary from house to house batim passages) from http://weird (and sometimes project to project), sciences.net/weird-sciences- upacabra notes, books from my library, but all of them are designed explic- home-page/aliens-ufo-and- and the Internet, after several hours I itly to avoid plagiarism. I am not extraterrestrials/chupacbras/: identified no less than four different only the author of five books and “The legend of cipi chupacabra sources from which Cheung had taken columnist (Discovery News and began in about 1992, when her words, often verbatim. LiveScience.com) but also have been Puerto Rican newspapers El a magazine editor for 12 years, and I Vocero and El Nuevo Dia began I was shocked that the plagiarism am familiar with the standards and re porting the killings of many was so obvious and so rampant. Fur- practices of both book and magazine different types of animals, such thermore, I realized that it was very un- publishing. as birds, horses, and as its name likely that the one subject entry in the As I’m sure you are aware, pla- implies, goats. However, it is pre- encyclopedia that I happened to fact- giarism is a serious issue. In fact just dated by El Vampiro de Moca last month Germany’s defense min- (The Vampire of Moca), a crea- check was the only one that had such ister, Karl-Theodore zu Guttenberg, ture blamed for similar killings a problem. I contacted a colleague, Josh was forced to resign from his post that occurred in the small town Hunt, to assist with my investigation, because he was found to have pla- of Moca in the 1970s.” and together we worked on and off for giarized parts of his doctoral disser- 3) The second half of the para- several weeks spot-checking other ran- tation. Exposed cases of plagiarism graph under “Reported Attacks,” have damaged author’s careers and beginning with “For a time the dom entries in the encyclopedia. raised questions about the credibility carnage” and ending with “Baja, Plagiarism is a serious accusation, and professionalism of their editors California” was copied verbatim and I did not want to publicly accuse and publishers. and in its entirety from page 49 Cheung unless my case was airtight. The first example I uncovered is of Bob Curran’s book Vampires: A Any author can make a few forgivable, in Cheung’s entry on Chupacabra Field Guide to the Creatures That (page 136). From my research, over Stalk the Night (2005, New Page careless mistakes in forgetting (or fail- 80% of her entry was taken, uncred- Books); see attached scan. ing) to adequately reference other writ- ited, from other sources—principally 4) The following four paragraphs, er’s works; it happens. However, as the the Web sites www.weirdsciences. beginning with “In July 2004” (p. weeks passed it became clear that the net, www.unknownexplorers.com, 137) and ending with “wolf in the plagiarism in The Element Encyclopedia and www.weird-encyclopedia. area” (p. 138) were copied verbatim com, as well as Bob Curran’s book from http://weirdsciences.net/ of Vampires was both unmistakable and Vampires: A Field Guide to the weird-sciences-home-page/ rampant. This was not an isolated in- Creatures That Stalk the Night (2005, aliens-ufo-and-extraterrestrials/ cident. New Page Books). One of the sites, chupacabras/. Finally after hours of meticulous www.unknownexplorers.com, is no 5) The following paragraph, begin- research I contacted a HarperCollins longer online, but I have attached an ning with “On January 11, 2008” archived screen shot of the relevant and ending with “long back legs” representative in the United Kingdom, Web page, and it can also be found was taken nearly verbatim from where the book was published. My by searching www.waybackmachine. Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia. email is printed below. com. org/wiki/Chupacabra. 6) The next paragraph, beginning Dear Siobhan Kenny, For example: with “Among the hill people” and Our research has found numerous 1) The last third of the first paragraph, ending with “it needs blood to instances of material apparently pla- beginning with “Some autopsy survive” was copied nearly verba- giarized by HarperCollins author re ports” and ending with “drained tim from page 50 of Bob Curran’s Theresa Cheung in her book The of blood” (p. 137) was taken ver- book Vampires: A Field Guide to Element Encyclopedia of Vampires. batim from http://www.weird- the Creatures That Stalk the Night Plagiarism, as you know, is the encyclopedia.com/chupacabras. (2005, New Page Books); see appropriation of another person’s php: “Some autopsy reports show at tached scan. ideas, results, or words without giv- damage to internal organs such 7) The following two paragraphs, ing appropriate credit. It is not lim- as the liver, without any local beginning with “an alternative ited to verbatim copying of anoth- exterior damage. Mutilations are explanation” and ending with er’s work, but includes paraphrasing. performed with surgical preci- “strange characteristics” were Any words written by another author sion. One report speaks of a cow, taken largely verbatim from www. must be correctly cited and quoted. completely skinned from head to unknownexplorers.com. Material that is taken directly and hoof, and drained of blood.” 8) The next paragraph, from “There verbatim from another author’s 2) The next paragraph is merely a is of course” to “a cow dry” was taken work must appear either in quota- collection of generic descriptions from http://www.weird-encyclo- tion marks or block quotes, and be that could have come from any- pedia.com/chupacabras.php, with clearly identified either in text or where, but the third paragraph the ex ception of the third and

46 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer fourth sentences, which were instead copied from www.weirdsciences.net. According to our analysis, there are approximately fifteen sentences (out of four pages of copy) on this Plagiarism in ‘Estrie’ entry (p. 212) : particular entry that may be Cheung’s own words and that did not appear Cheung seems to have heavily plagiarized most of this entry in her in works by previous authors. Most of these fifteen “original” sentences book from Joshua Trachtenberg’s book Jewish Magic and Superstition: are so generic in content that it’s A Study in Folk Religion (2008). difficult or impossible to trace a specific source. (I might also add that 1A: “It is difficult to determine whether the estrie was regarded as a much of this information is not only true demon, or as a witch; it was described, sometimes in the same plagiarized, but inaccurate as well. source, as both. Included among the incorporeal spirits, it was none If Cheung is going to take other the less also a woman, a flesh-and-blood member of the community. people’s work and claim it as her In either guise her character was that of the vampire, whose partic- own, at least she could use correct ular prey was little children, though she did not disdain at times to information.) Once we knew what to look for, include grown-ups in her diet. The sense of these passages appears to it became clear how Cheung “wrote” be that she is an evil spirit who adopts woman’s form and spends her those entries of her book; she merely life among men, the more readily to satisfy her gory appetites. The typed a subject name into the Google equation of the estrie with the broxa leads one to believe that she was search engine and then cut and pasted best known in her human form.” (Trachtenberg 2008, 43) paragraphs from the top three or four hits, changed a few words, and then 1B: “It is difficult to determine whether the estrie was regarded as submitted it as her own work. a true demon or as a witch, as it was described, sometimes in the Had Cheung done this but cred- same source, as both. Included among the incorporeal spirits, it was ited the writers and sources she copied from, this would merely nonetheless always a woman, a flesh-and-blood member of the com- demonstrate that she is a poor writer munity. In either guise her character was that of the vampire whose and lazy researcher. However, since particular prey was little children, though she did not disdain at times in most cases the words are taken to include grown-ups in her diet. The sense of surviving descriptions directly and unmistakably from other about the estrie appears to be that she was an entity who adopted a sources, it seems she has indeed engaged in plagiarism. woman’s form and spent her life among men, the more readily to I note that Cheung provides a satisfy her gory appetites, and that she was best known in her human “Select Bibliography” at the end of form.” (Cheung 2010, 212) her book with a few dozen sources. As I’m sure you’re aware, this does not 2A: “If an estrie was wounded by a human being, or was seen by him absolve Cheung (nor HarperCollins) (in her demonic state), she must die unless she could procure and from the charges of plagiarism. Any consume some of his bread and salt. A man who was attacked by an words taken from other sources and estrie in the shape of a cat and beat her off, was approached by the written by other authors and used witch the next day and asked for some of his bread and salt. When he without proper attribution constitute plagiarism. was innocently about to grant her request an old man intervened and Given how flagrant the plagia- scolded him sharply for his generosity. ‘If you enable her to remain rism was, with Cheung apparently alive, she will only harm other men.’” (Trachtenberg 2008, 43) lifting well over three-quarters of other peoples’ material for that one 2B: “If an estrie was wounded by a human being, or was seen by entry, it seemed unlikely that this one (in her demonic state), she would die unless she could procure was the only example in the book. So and consume some of the person’s bread and salt. According to one we continued the investigation, and report, a man who was attacked by an estrie in the shape of a cat and selected entries at random to see if we could find evidence of plagiarism beat her off, was approached by the witch in the form of a woman elsewhere. Indeed, it is apparently the next day and asked for some of his bread and salt. When he was rampant in Cheung’s book. innocently about to grant her request, an old man intervened and [I then provided five other exam- scolded him sharply for his generosity: ‘If you enable her to remain ples of plagiarism in the book (see alive, she will only harm other men.’” (Cheung 2010, 212) sidebars). Space does not permit a full elaboration of the plagiarism, but a full comparison between Cheung’s

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 47 of plagiarism by this author to go forward with the investigation and bring it to your attention. Plagiarism in ‘Vampire Myth: Rational Perspectives’ I note that Cheung is the author entry (p. 410) of at least three other HarperCollins titles; this could be the tip of a very big, very embarrassing iceberg if pla- Cheung seems to have plagiarized more than a few lines in her “Ratio- giarism plagues those other books nal perspectives” subsection for her “Myth, Vampire” entry from Karen as well. If HarperCollins chooses Thomp son and her piece “The Mythology of the Vampire” found here: not to investigate Cheung’s other http://kekrops.tripod.com/Mythology_Vampire.html (accessed March titles (and perhaps those by other 3, 2011). authors in the Element series), we just might do so ourselves. My advice, 1A: “He certainly cannot be viewed only as a mythological phenome- for what it’s worth, is to do a thor- non.” (Karen Thompson) ough investigation and get ahead of the problem. I also note that 1B: “it is a creature that cannot be viewed entirely from a mythological Ms. Cheung thanks Jeannine Dillon, perspective . . .” (Cheung 2010, 410). senior editor at HarperCollins, in the Acknowledgements. 2A: “at the time when vampires were truly feared, people in coma or As I’m sure you agree, plagiarism shock were often buried alive; those who managed to escape their pre- in HarperCollins titles is a serious mature graves were looked upon with awe because they had ‘returned.’” issue that strikes at the reputation and credibility of the company, its (Karen Thompson) authors, and imprints. Not only has 2B: “At the time when vampires were truly feared, people in coma or Cheung apparently engaged in plagiarism, but HarperCollins may have shock were often buried alive; those who managed to escape their pre- violated laws by using copyrighted mature graves were therefore regarded as vampires.” (Cheung 2010, 410) material in your books—likely from dozens of other authors. I have not 3A: “Another facet was the coincidence of plagues and the onset of yet contacted any of the various vampire attacks. The vampire attacks were always considered an epi- copyright holders to let them know demic because anyone killed by a vampire became one, and the numbers about this issue. increased in a rapid mathematical progression as did the victims of a The apparent plagiarism has plague. The vampire, then, is at least partially scientifically explainable.” other implications as well, such as for factual accuracy. If Cheung has (Karen Thompson) simply cut and pasted other peo- 3B: “Another facet of the story is the coincidence of plagues and the onset ple’s work, then she obviously cannot vouch for the factual accuracy of of vampire attacks. The vampire attacks were always considered an epi- the material in her book. If a writer demic because anyone killed by a vampire became one and the numbers presents a book as his or her own, increased in a rapid mathematical progression, as did the victims of a there is an expectation that the work plague. The vampire, then, is at least partially scientifically explainable.” was written by that person, and that (Cheung 2010, 410) the information has been examined and found credible by that author. If For more examples, see Online Extras on our website at Cheung simply uses other people’s csicop.org/extras word and work (with or without credit, and with little or no original research), how can HarperCollins work and the works she used is (p. 350)—compare with informa- ensure the factual accuracy of your available on the CSI website at www. tion at http://morbidhistory.tumblr. books? csicop.org/extras.] com/post/1182250736/lastovo- This case also raises questions There are likely more (many island-vampires.) about editorial competence. With more) entries that may have been Whether the majority of this such a diversity of writing styles from copied from other sources, but we book was written by other authors a variety of other sources supposedly stopped after finding evidence of (as I suspect), or just these, I cannot having been written by Cheung, it’s plagiarism in a stunning eight out say. Ultimately, of course, the respon- hard to see how experienced proof ten randomly-selected entries sibility for the accuracy of what is fessional editors could have failed we spot-checked. (For other sus- printed lies with the author and the to detect the plagiarism. Of course, picious entries you might want to publisher. We have satisfied our- some author writing styles are more start with Lastovo Island Vampires selves that there is enough evidence prominent than others, but it’s curi-

48 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer ous that no one in the editorial The fact that over half of Cheung’s bothering to do any basic research to find out department at HarperCollins appar- if it’s true. The fact that 200 websites report his book may not have been written by her existence and activities as fact should be pro- ently noted Cheung’s broad range of was apparently all just a little mistake, styles. It is Theresa Cheung’s name foundly embarrassing, and reveals the incredibly “an understandable level of human sloppy (or nonexistent) scholarship of these sites. on the cover, Jeannine Dillon’s name This incident also provides insight into how in the Acknowledgements as her error.” Having written six books myself, dubious information can make the easy transi- primary editor, and HarperCollins’s I would be mortified if anyone found tion from unchecked, pure fiction of the Internet name throughout. this level of human error in my writing. to the printed word published in a supposedly You noted in your previous email I replied, authoritative encyclopedia and endorsed by a that HarperCollins “investigates any reputable international publisher. Many people claims that are asserted against our Thank you for your response, I know enough to be skeptical about information books,” and I will be happy to assist appreciate you getting back to me on the web but assume that information in a in that investigation in any way I can. fixed, printed form is likely to be more accurate promptly. I do have a very few fol- and reliable because it has presumably been seen I look forward to seeing the results low-up questions, as your previous and fact-checked by editors—not to mention of that HarperCollins internal inves- response was not entirely clear that an author would take pride in his or her tigation, and would appreciate being work and be careful not to mislead or misinform kept updated on the progress of that 1) In the majority of the entries we readers. investigation. found problems with, Cheung simply did a Google search for a given I look forward to hearing from Benjamin Radford is deputy you, and hope we can schedule a topic, and then cut and pasted the material (often verbatim) into her editor of the S I- time for an interview regarding this , a research fellow with matter. own work. Is this normal and accept- able research and writing practice for the Committee for Skeptical In- All best, HarperCollins nonfiction authors? quiry, and he carefully follows proper reference citation in his Ben Radford 2) Since Cheung often used other authors’ words and work (with or books. I eventually got the following re- without credit, and with little or sponse back: no original research), how can HarperCollins ensure the factual HarperCollins adheres to the high- accuracy of this and other titles? est editorial standards and we take 3) Did Cheung state whether or not any allegations of plagiarism very her other books were researched and seriously indeed. . . . We have inves- written with the same “highest stan- tigated the issues you have raised dard of care”? Join the below in relation to the “Element Investigation! Encyclopedia of Vampires” by Ther esa Thanks, and I look forward to Cheung and published by Harper hearing from you. If you would like to join this Collins Publishers Limited (the I never did get an answer to these “Encyclopedia”) and have discussed investigation, get a copy of questions, and HarperCollins refused them with Theresa. In the creation I The Element Encyclopedia of of the “Element Encyclopedia of further comment. Vampires: An A–Z of the Undead Vampires” the author conducted a (either used or from a library vast amount of research using a wide range of different source materials. Acknowledgements if you wish), and choose three This was a huge undertaking con- or four random entries. Pick ducted over a long period of time I would like to thank Josh Hunt for his a dozen potentially unique or and, whilst the author assures us the assistance in researching this case. Seeking the sources for plagiarized material can be rare phrases or short sentences highest standard of care was used, an from the entry, and then enter understandable level of human error a tedious and time-consuming effort. It occurred and some source materials may take an author mere seconds to cut them in a Google search. If you were not correctly credited. Neither and paste (or re-type) material from a given find a match, see if the words HarperCollins nor Theresa would source, but re-locating that original source and sentences before and after wish to deny credit to the authors and identifying what specific material was used may take hours of time. it were also copied, and if they of this source material and these will are, carefully note the source be referenced in all future print-runs of the Encyclopedia. We are also Note and URL. Participants can satisfied that the uses of the works 1. As far as I can tell, Isaac Espinoza doesn’t email me at bradford@centerfor in question are not a breach of copy- even exist and is likely a figment of someone’s inquiry.net with their findings. right. We hope that this addresses imagination in a snippet of fiction that got cop- your concerns. ied from one place to another without anyone

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 49 The ‘Psychology Is Science, Not Witchcraft’ Campaign A report of the campaign led by the Polish Skeptics Club to eliminate invalid and discredited pseudoscientific tests from clinical and forensic psychology in Poland.

TOMASZ WITKOWSKI and MACIEJ ZATONSKI

he expansion of information technologies has resulted in Avogadro—the Italian scientist most a virtual arms race between pseudoscientists and skeptics noted for his contributions to molecular theory. In tribute to him, the number trying to expose false claims. The Internet, Facebook, of elementary entities in one mole of a T 23 Twitter, and other social media and mobile technologies help substance (6.02×10 ) is known as Avo- gadro’s constant. Homeopathic “reme- us to reach thousands of people quickly. Nowadays, spreading dies” (or “homeopathic confectionary” myths is much easier than it was in the previous century— as we prefer to call them) claim to but so is exposing them. However, the fundamental prob- contain active ingredients in dilutions exceeding 1:10200. This means that ho- lem (how to appeal to a wide audience with proper scientific meopathic bottles of sugar pills (sold as evidence) still remains, and it cannot be easily overcome by medicines) do not contain even a single technology. Skeptics struggle with how to engage the public molecule of the substance they claim to contain. in critical thinking. Critical thinking can be difficult, and The 10:23 Campaign turned out to many people believe in myths that cannot be easily disproved. be a major success of skeptics worldwide. Homeopathic sales dropped sig- How do we put doubt in minds indoctrinated for decades? nificantly in some countries, legislative How do we break through the wall of propaganda raised by changes were introduced in others, and commercialized pseudoscience? one French manufacturer of popular homeopathic products is facing a $30 One of the most efficient ways to cebo) treatments unethically sold to the million class action lawsuit in Can- overcome this problem is to present public as real medicines—specifically ada. The suit alleges that sales of Os- critical thoughts in catchy, fresh, cre- explaining to the public how doctors cillococcinum, a homeopathic product ative, and simple forms that appeal to and scientists know that homeopathic marketed for flu-like symptoms, vio- many and force individuals to reflect on “remedies” are just empty sugar pills. late consumer protection laws by mis- the subject. An extraordinary, striking This international campaign, organized informing them about the contents of thought presented in an appropriate by skeptical organizations around the the supposed medication. way can easily reach the media and the world and coordinated by Merseyside The three qualities that helped public—just as viral videos (or Internet Skeptics Society in the United King- David defeat Goliath were accuracy, memes) spread around the world. dom, was launched February 6, 2011, wit, and intelligence. Since skeptics A good example of such a skeptical at 10:23  in more than seventy cities around the world are usually David to “viral meme” was the “Overdose Event” across thirty countries on all continents. pseudoscience’s Goliath, it is necessary during the 10:23 Campaign, carried The launch date of the campaign (6.02 to organize events like the 10:23 Cam- out to raise awareness about sham (pla- at 10:23) was chosen to honor Amedeo paign.

50 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer The main logo of the campaign Participants in the campaign

Polish skeptics have used similar and the majority of its indices have not (Mihura et al. 2012) suggest caution in tactics during a nationwide campaign been empirically supported. (See Wood, using this method and encourage clini- against myths deeply rooted in the psy- Nezworski, Lilienfeld, and Garb, “The cians to use multi-method assessments chological sciences. To attract public Rorschach Inkblot Test, Fortune Tell- rather than basing conclusions on the and media attention to the problem ers, and Cold Reading,” S Rorschach test alone. The problems of pseudoscientific claims and urban I, July/August 2003.) The described above are not atypical, nor legends, we have chosen one myth Rorschach norms are problematic and are they limited to Poland. Underwager strongly connected to clinical and fo- tend to identify non-existent pathology and Wakefield (1993) described many rensic psychology in Poland—the Ror- in many normal people. The evidence “horrible examples” related to the use of schach inkblot test. for the validity of Rorschach tests in projective tests. Lilienfield (1999) and Many clinicians believe that if we allow a person to respond to ambiguous stimuli, we can reveal their hidden emotions and/or internal conflicts. Many psychologists are strongly convinced that inkblots, unclear (blurry) photos, The belief in the diagnostic power of—as we or even drawings made by patients are “secret passageways” to hidden per- call them—“projective techniques” remains sonality traits. This somehow allows popular among psychologists despite them to make an accurate diagnosis of numerous psychological disorders. the evidence showing otherwise. Some of them even believe that they can penetrate the deepest and dark- est parts of unconscious minds. The belief in the diagnostic power of—as we call them—“projective techniques” remains popular among psychologists despite the evidence showing other- detecting thought disorder, and prom- Lilienfeld et al. (2000) wrote detailed wise. Unfortunately, not just clinical ising evidence for Rorschach indices for reviews about problems caused by ap- psychologists share these beliefs. Many dependency, psychotherapy outcome, plying projective techniques in clinical forensic psychologists use these tests and a few other characteristics do not diagnosis. alone during their expert testimonials justify its overuse—especially in legal The aim of this article is not to pres- in court. settings. Even the authors of the recent, ent problems caused by the use of poor In fact, the Rorschach inkblot test more sanguine meta-analysis on the va- methods of diagnosis, nor to present is an extremely problematic instrument, lidity of individual Rorschach variables numerous research results. Instead,

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 51 we want to show the impact of a cam- tent-related materials providing proper Polish version of Wikipedia and on paign planned, prepared, organized, scientific evidence (such as research numerous public and private Internet and coordinated by the Polish Skeptic results). We created a list of public and portals and blogs. Since they were orig- Club (KSP) in Poland in March 2012. private institutions that widely pro- inally published on the English version The campaign was called “Psychology mote and use projective techniques in of Wikipedia (after the copyrights ex- Is Science, Not Witchcraft,” and its Poland and edited a list of frequently pired), they were translated into thirteen aim was to raise awareness to prob- asked questions (FAQs). We also did different languages. This fact remained lems caused by overusing projective an extensive literature search and pre- unknown to many Polish psychologists. techniques (the Rorschach inkblot test pared a list of all available evidence That’s why publication of Rorschach’s on projective tests. Having prepared being an excellent example) that are inkblot tests together with their inter- the theoretical framework, we created pretation in the Polish language trig- widely recognized (or even respected) graphics and artwork (pictures, draw- gered a wave of wrath and indignation among the public. among many clinicians. This led to a nationwide public discussion. Just before the launch of our campaign we prepared a website, Twitter feed, and Facebook fan page dedicated to our campaign. At the very end we issued a press release to journalists and We—as skeptics and as psychologists—can the media. either help people with our knowledge or seduce them with unrealistic empty The Campaign The following message was released promises. It is our choice, but also to the media: “Over one hundred aca- our responsibility. demics, scientists, students, and psychologists will protest against using invalid methods of psychological diagnosis.” And it worked: Information about our campaign was published in major influential nationwide journals, newspapers, radio stations, and on the largest Polish Internet portals. Over 140 people from nine large nongov- The “Psychology Is Science, Not ings, banners, slideshows, T-shirts). We ernmental organizations took part in Witchcraft” campaign had three goals: made ten banners, one for each ink- the protest. Scientists, lecturers, and To explain to the public that many pro- blot from the original Rorschach test, students wore the T-shirts for four jective tests have poor or no validity; to describing potential dangers caused days at universities, in their workplaces, raise concerns among professional psy- by projective tests. Most of them were and on the streets. chologists who still use such tests alone focused on using projective techniques We issued an open letter to the Pol- in clinical diagnosis or in legal proceed- in court proceedings. Other artwork ish Psychological Association (PPA)— ings; and to initiate public and scientific criticized the use of projective tests the largest association of psychologists discussion about the use of projective during job interviews (still performed in Poland—with a request to stop techniques. in armed forces, national security agen- selling projective tests and using them cies, and numerous private corporations in legal proceedings. The association Preparations when employing staff ). Some banners directly supervises Laboratory of Psy- pointed out the problem of spending chological Tests Ltd. (LPT)—the main Before the campaign, we obtained the public research money on inkblots. distributor of psychological tests in support of some well-known academics We also designed several T-shirts with Poland. PPA has significant influence and authorities in Polish psychology. As different slogans. over diagnostic practices in Poland, be- the second step, we brought together One of the important elements of cause the Polish Ministry of Justice cer- nongovernmental organizations and our campaign was the publication of tifies all methods offered by LPT Ltd. individuals interested in supporting Rorschach’s original inkblot tables to- for the purpose of legal proceedings. our campaign. Next, we prepared con- gether with typical answers on the Unfortunately LPT sells and promotes

52 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer the use of many discredited projective motion against campaign organizers We invite everybody interested in tests, such as the Color Pyramid Test, appeared, as expected. carrying out a “Psychology Is Science, the Szondi’s Test, and others. Foren- Despite the months since we sent Not Witchcraft” campaign in your coun- the letter to the PPA, we have received sic psychologists in Poland are also al- try to please contact Polish Skeptics Club. lowed to use Minnesota Multi-phasic no reply from this largest psychological We will provide you with all artwork and Personality Inventory (MMPI) offered organization. There may be lots of rea- by LPT Ltd., despite the fact that the sons why this happened, but so far 457 graphic materials, and we will answer all copyright owner allowed its use for re- psychologists deeply interested in the the questions you might possibly have. search purposes only (not for clinical quality of psychological diagnosis were You can count on our help, experience, I diagnosis). ignored by the largest Polish associa- expertise, and advice. Supporters of our campaign were tion of psychologists. References collecting signatures under the letter. To sum it all up—despite a few The culmination of our campaign was glitches we consider our campaign a Mihura, Joni L., Gregory J. Meyer, Nicolae on the fourth day, when we organized success. You can certainly see a shared Dumitrascu, et al. 2012. The validity of open lectures, debates, and discussions pattern and resemblance to the 10:23 individual Rorschach variables: Systematic in Warsaw and Wroclaw—two major Campaign that turned out to be a sig- reviews and meta-analyses of the com- Polish cities and main academic centers. nificant worldwide success for skeptical prehensive system. Psychological Bulletin thinkers. We were strongly inspired by (August 27).doi: 10.1037/a0029406. its authors and we thank them for this Lilienfeld, Scott O. 1999. Projective measures Effects of the Campaign of personality and psychopathology. How inspiration. There are a few differences well do they work? S I 23 Information about our campaign ap- between those two undertakings. The peared in all mainstream media in Poland. (September/October): 32–39. main message of our campaign was not Lilienfeld, Scott O., James M. Wood, and It was broadcast on public radio stations, as clear and simple as the famous “Ho- Howard N. Garb. 2000. The scientific status reported on nationwide TV news, in meopathy, there’s nothing in it,” and it of projective techniques. Psychological Science several newspapers, and on many web- was much more difficult to catch the in the Public Interest 1: 27–66. sites. We collected 457 signatures (mostly attention of the media and the public Underwager, R., and H. Wakefield. 1993. from psychologists and academics) for with our message. To our satisfaction, Misuse of psychological tests in forensic our letter and sent it to the president of we succeeded in attaining this goal in settings: Some horrible examples. American Journal of Forensic Psychology 11: 55–75. the Polish Psychological Association, Dr. Poland. We realize that we did not Malgorzata Teoplitz-Winiewska. stop the use of projective techniques Tomasz Witkowski is a re- There were also events organized by psychologists, and that we still have searcher and science writer independently as an effect of our cam- a lot of hard work to do. But we also with a PhD in psychology. He is paign (such as local debates, invited strongly believe that skeptical organi- the founder of the Polish Skep- lectures, and conferences). Discussions zations can repeat our success in their tics Club and specializes in de- were held at major universities for over countries. Learning from our mistakes bunking pseudoscience, par- three months. The issues were dis- can help us prepare better events in ticularly in the fields of social cussed not only by psychologists but the future. A worldwide network of science, psychotherapy, and diagnosis. He is also by lawyers or people who were engaged skeptics is fully capable of fo- the author of many books, including Forbidden diagnosed by expert witnesses with in- cusing public attention on pseudosci- Psychology: Between Charlatanry and Science. valid tests. As a result a large national entific claims in all areas of our lives. Visit his website at www.tomaszwitkowski.pl conference took place in November One of the greatest philosophers and reach him by email at witkowski@moder- 2012, where renowned Polish scien- of science, Karl Popper, said: “Science ator.wroc.pl. tists met with advocates of projective must begin with myths and with the tests to discuss “Conditions for the use criticism of myths.” Psychology seems Dr. Maciej Zatonski is a surgeon of projection tests in psychological and to be an infinite source of unverified and a researcher working at Im- forensic diagnosis.” The PPA was one myths and claims. There are many perial College Healthcare NHS of the organizers of this conference. widely held beliefs that “everyone Trust in London. He is a founder There were also some side-effects knows are true.” These popular beliefs of Polish Skeptics Club and spe- of our campaign. Some university stu- are usually contradicted by psycholog- cializes in debunking unscien- dents participating in our campaign ical research, but they are still taught at tific therapies and claims in medicine. He is were harassed by university lecturers, many universities. We—as skeptics and a leader in public understanding of science in and some of the researchers and lec- as psychologists—can either help peo- Poland and is actively engaged in promoting turers involved in our actions suffered ple with our knowledge or seduce them evolution and evolutionary sciences. Visit his ostracism from their academic commu- with unrealistic empty promises. It is website at www.zatonski.com and reach him nities. Several accusations of self-pro- our choice, but also our responsibility. by email at [email protected].

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2013 53 [FORUM

GrumbleKEITH TAYLOR Grumble

“I disagree with what you say but I’ll defend to the death your right to say it.” —Voltaire

f Voltaire were alive today he’d have a hard time selling that idea, and it was such an impressive idea too. A radio Iprogram of the 1940s, Mr. District Attorney, appropriated the line for a stirring lead-in. I knew what Voltaire said before I knew who he was. Sadly the brightest light of the Enlightenment is out of date.

In today’s cyberspace age he might knocked for a loop. ings to everybody on your mailing list. feel the need to modify: I may disagree We need some rules of discourse. I 6. Claims of the paranormal are en- with what you say, but I’ll defend unto the have written ten; I hope they help. couraged as long as they are accompa- death your right to forward it incessantly 1. If you don’t want your ideas chal- nied by proof of the paranormal. even if it’s nonsense. lenged, don’t send them to people who 7. Believing is not science. Do not Veracity is taking a beating nowa- think. treat something as if it is, even if it days. With the immense traffic jam on 2. Don’t be surprised if your recipi- comes from a preacher . . . or a politi- the electronic information superhigh- ent ignores such admonitions as “If you cian. way most folks just give up and choose don’t agree with this, delete it.” He or 8. Sending an email telling a dis- what they want to believe. she may just keep it just as a reminder senter to “sit down and shut up” is not Then they send it around via Twit- of how arrogant you are. the best use of the First Amendment. ter, IM, Facebook, or the now increas- 3. Keep in mind that “Don’t send 9. The wisest thing a person can say ingly obsolescent email. Discoveries are me that crap” means little if you’re is “I don’t know.” breathlessly passed on at the speed of sending crap yourself. 10. Or, it might be “I was wrong.” I I light. And so are disagreements. Old 4. Don’t claim things without proof don’t know. friends send me things they know will as fact unless it is something so obvious Keith Taylor is a longtime upset me and then get upset if I dis- it cannot be disputed. “God wants you member of the San Diego agree. Superstitions and impossible re- to vote Republican” does not fit that Association for Rational ligious nonsense must be protected. description. Inquiry. He served as president It’s rough for a geezer like me. Many 5. If you don’t care enough about and/or program chair for many years. He can be reached at relationships built up over decades have what you send to check out its accuracy, [email protected]. become strained. Quite a few have been I’ll be glad to do so and send the find-

54 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer FOLLOW UP]

Vindication of My Notorious ‘Insulting’

LetterGARY P. POSNER to UFOlogist J. Allen Hynek

ohn Franch’s article “The Secret ter to Allen Hynek) that proponents are Life of J. Allen Hynek” (SI, irrational, money-grubbing publicity JJanuary/February 2013) has re- seekers.” kindled memories of my correspon- I first wrote to Hynek (two pages) dences of yesteryear with several prom- in 1976, while still a UFO believer. His inent UFOlogists, among them Jerome two-page June 1 response (see gpposner. Clark and Hynek. Clark, author of com/Hynek-1976.pdf) begins, “This such books as The UFO Encyclopedia, is in reply to your kind letter of May for many years edited the International 18th” and ends, “Thank you again for UFO Reporter, which until its discon- your letter. It is always a pleasure to tinuation in 2012 was the bimonthly correspond with someone who has his magazine of the J. Allen Hynek Center head screwed on straight. . . .” I next for UFO Studies (CUFOS). wrote to him (three pages) at the end Some of my exchanges with Clark of 1977, shortly after reading his latest were quite testy. One round of letters in book, The Hynek UFO Report. His two- 1992 revolved around a defamatory ac- page January 11, 1978, response (see cusation he made in IUR about people gpposner.com/Hynek-1978.pdf) be- affiliated with CSI that ultimately led gins, “Thank you for your most excel- to my hiring an attorney (see gpposner. com/loathsome.html). But a comment Clark had made to me years earlier came to mind as I read Franch’s piece. Allan Hendry (not to be confused with Allen Hynek) was the main inves- “Hendry once told me, by the way, that in tigator at CUFOS in the 1970s. In one the course of his employment at CUFOS of Clark’s 1985 letters to me, he said, “Hendry once told me, by the way, the single rudest letter that organization that in the course of his employment received was written by you.” at CUFOS the single rudest letter that organization received was written by —UFOlogist Jerome Clark you.” A couple weeks later, his next letter again made reference to “the more frequent assertion (made, for example, in especially insulting fashion in the last paragraph of your January 26, 1978, let-

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 55 [FOLLOW UP

lent letter of December 27th. Because my thanks. persons such as myself. If you con- you have taken the time to write in con- Soon after I entered the “Strange tinue to pursue your present course, siderable detail, I am putting your letter Land of UFOria,” I realized that I your personal finances may remain had undertaken a largely thankless ahead of the stack to acknowledge it.” sound, and you may even eventually task. That for most people, who get your own TV show, but I assure And his stack nearly reached to the stars, think the whole issue is nonsense, you that your credibility among the as a result of his involvement as a consul- I was on a fool’s errand, while for “logical” segment of the population those who are interested and who tant with the movie Close Encounters of (no matter how few of us there may generally are “believers,” my efforts the Third Kind. (Hynek had coined the be left) will erode to zero, if it has would evoke only harsh criticism. “close encounter” classifications.) But your letter of Jan. 23 [to not already done so. Had I known then about Hynek’s “secret life,” I might have found myself much less vexed by the man. Incorpo- rating information revealed in Hynek’s Thanks to my new awareness of Dr. Hynek’s close friend and colleague Jacques Vallee’s 1996 book, Franch tells of “secret life,” any subconscious guilt that how Hynek “had been an enthusiastic I may have been harboring for decades over though closeted student of the occult [and], for example, believed that there my notorious “insulting” letter has now were planes of existence beyond the certainly been vanquished. physical, and he even endorsed alleged instances of ‘psychic surgery’ and ‘psychic photography.’” Moving on from the “irrational” to the “money-grubbing publicity seeker” (as Clark interpreted my letter), Franch quotes a Vallee journal entry: “Media My metamorphosis from UFO Hynek] is ample reward for all my efforts—truly. What you have dared men hire Allen as they would hire a gui- believer to skeptic was chronicled in to say to the “Galileo of UFOlogy” tar player. He rushes wherever he sees a the chapter (posted at gpposner.com) [as Hynek had been dubbed in that I contributed to Skeptical Odysseys a recent issue of Newsweek] has spotlight, and if the spotlight moves, he (Prometheus Books, 2001). As I detail long needed to be said. . . . You are moves with it.” And in a 1978 letter to there, my next missive to Hynek was the first, to my knowledge, to bra- a friend, Hynek boasted that “each one zenly comment that the Emperor is of my [UFO] lectures brings me more four pages in which, having just dis- NAKED! covered and devoured Philip Klass’s than my monthly pay from Northwest- UFOs Explained, I rebutted Hynek’s I didn’t think to mention in my ern [University].” Franch also quotes letter point by point. Klass (who died chapter the two-page addendum (see Vallee as having noted back in 1968 in 2005), senior avionics editor of Avi- gpposner.com/Posner-1978.pdf) I sent that “[Hynek] is no longer taken seri- ation Week magazine and one of the Hynek three days later after seeing him ously among astronomers.” founders of CSI, soon thereafter wrote on a national television program the Thanks to my new awareness of Dr. night before. This “rudest” letter’s “in- to me of this letter: Hynek’s “secret life,” any subconscious sulting” closing paragraph reads: It was 7 p.m. before I left the office, guilt that I may have been harboring for exhausted from a hard day probing a Thanks to TV Guide, I have been decades over my notorious “insulting” let- very controversial international avia- able to view many of your recent I tion issue, and by a cold and hacking TV appearances, as you well know, ter has now certainly been vanquished. cough that should have sent me to and have found them to be quite Gary Posner, MD, is founder bed but for the press of Aviation distressing. Even if UFOs do repre- of Tampa Bay Skeptics and a Week business. sent a “quantum jump” phenomenon CSI scientific consultant. His But your letter [to Hynek] has (and as I’ve said before, I hope they website can be found at www. moved me almost to tears and so I do), your illogical statements only gpposner.com. must respond tonight and express serve to alienate (no pun intended)

56 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer BOOK REVIEWS]

Do You Believe in Magic?

HARRIET HALL

r. Paul Offit, a pediatrician and Do You Believe in Magic? The Sense and Nonsense professor of vaccinology at the of Alternative Medicine. By Paul Offit, MD. DUniversity of Pennsylvania, Harper Collins, New York, 2013. codeveloped a rotavirus vaccine that ISBN: 978-0-06-222296-1. has saved hundreds of lives. His pre- 336 pp. Hardcover, $26.99. vious books Autism’s False Prophets and Deadly Choices examined the misinformation spread by the anti-vaccine movement following Andrew Wakefield’s infamous vaccine/autism study. Now he turns his attention to the field of alternative medicine with a new book, Do You Believe in Magic? The Sense and Nonsense of Alternative courts they put him under the care of safety or efficacy. He eviscerates Su- Medicine. a psychiatrist who gave him Laetrile, zanne Somers for her anti-aging regi- He explains why alternative thera- coffee enemas, a “witch doctor’s diet,” men and Jenny McCarthy for her cru- pies are popular: mainstream doctors and a mixture of other nonsensical sade against vaccines. He reveals how are perceived as uncaring and dictato- treatments. Joey died riddled with can- a nonexistent disease, Chronic Lyme rial, offering unnatural remedies with cer, and yet the psychiatrist went on to Disease, was invented and popularized intolerable side effects, while alternative treat other patients the same way. and how the myth continues to harm healers provide natural remedies, com- patients. He builds on Steve Jobs’s flir- fort, and individual attention. But he tation with alternative treatments for warns that “natural” remedies mustn’t Unless we hold all his pancreatic cancer to cover the larger be given a free pass. Unless we hold all therapies to the same story of bogus cancer cures, from shark therapies to the same high standard of high standard of scientific cartilage to Krebiozen to Gerson ther- scientific proof, we risk being hood- proof, we risk being apy. A separate chapter is devoted to winked by healers who believe in magic. Stanislaw Burzynski, the “anti-neoplas- Being a scientist, Offit’s approach hoodwinked by healers ton” cancer doctor who charges patients was to review studies of various alter- who believe in magic. exorbitantly to be subjects in experi- native treatments to see what worked. ments that never seem to get published He found that most of them didn’t, and who claims huge success rates that and when they did work, it was how have never been confirmed when inde- they worked that was surprising. pendent reviewers have looked at his Offit is a wonderful storyteller who One chapter features Dr. Oz, de- cases. And then there’s Rashid Buttar, makes his message come alive. Each scribing some of the believers in magic who mistreated thousands of autistic chapter is a story that grabs the read- featured on his show. Another chap- children and cancer patients with use- er’s interest and holds it. In the intro- ter tells the story of Linus Pauling’s less (and potentially harmful) chelation duction, he tells us that when seven- unfortunate infatuation with vitamin therapy; and all the medical board did year-old Joey Hofbauer was diagnosed C. Another tells how diet supplement was order him to provide a consent with Hodgkin’s lymphoma, he had a industry lobbyists and colluding pol- form advising patients that his treat- 95 percent probability of cure with ra- iticians neutered the FDA by passing ments were unproven. diation and chemotherapy. His parents the Diet Supplement Health and Ed- Offit explains why alternative med- rejected the oncologist’s recommen- ucation Act, allowing the marketing of icine is so seductive and how patients dations, and with the collusion of the products without any prior testing for and doctors can be misled by the pla-

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 57 [NEW AND NOTABLE Listing does not preclude future review.

AMERICA BEWITCHED: The Story of Witchcraft after Salem. Owen cebo effect and can misinterpret the Davies. Davies, a professor of social history at the University of Hertfordshire, follows up his previous book (Grimoires: A History meaning of their observations. Instead of of Magic Books) with this fascinating survey of belief in witch- railing against alternative medicine as a craft in the three centuries since the Salem witch trials. Accord- whole, he thinks some of it has a certain ing to Davies, more people have been killed as witches in America value as “placebo medicine.” He draws a since the last witch trials officially ended than were killed before line where alternative medicine crosses that time. Oxford University Press, 2013, 384 pp., $35.95. over into quackery: Phil • Recommending against conven- EXTRAORDINARY BELIEFS: A Historical Approach to a Psycholog- tional therapies that are helpful. (He ical Problem. Peter Lamont. The author (School of Philosophy, mentions Andrew Weil, Joe Mercola, Psychology, and Language Sciences, University of Edinburgh) takes a historical approach to a continuing psychological prob- chiropractors, Deepak Chopra, and oth- lem: Why do people believe in extraordinary phenomena? Taking ers as guilty of that sin.) in turn mesmerism, spiritualism, psychical research, and para- • Promoting potentially harmful ther- psychology, he analyzes how each phenomenon has been made apies without adequate warning. to seem convincing, and then disputed endlessly. Throughout, • Draining patients’ bank accounts. his emphasis is to go beyond simple explanations of why people believe—ignorance and wishful thinking, for example—to a more • Promoting magical thinking. It isn’t complex, realistic understanding. Cambridge University Press, harmless, and it encourages scientific il- 2013, 250 pp., $29.99. literacy. The subject is one I know a lot about, THE REALITY OF ESP: A Physicist’s Proof of Psychic Abilities. so I didn’t expect any surprises. Never- Russell Targ. In a book that Deepak Chopra says “provides convincing evidence” of psychic powers, laser physicist Targ spends theless, he surprised me with back stories nearly 200 pages rehashing old (and often discredited) claims of and intriguing details I had not known. I ESP (while routinely omitting skeptical rebuttals) before finally knew Suzanne Somers used bioidentical getting around to attempting to explain how psi might work. In a hormones, but I didn’t know about all of section titled “The Physics of Psi” (beginning with an admiring the forty-seven other remedies she uses, mention of mystic Madame Blavatsky), Targ eventually invokes quantum physics (a subject outside his field of expertise) before or that she rubs glutathione into the skin finally admitting that “No one presently knows how ESP works” over her liver to stimulate it. His explana- (p. 204). Despite its subtitle, the book is more of a meandering tion of the political machinations behind memoir than any sort of scientific proof of ESP. Quest Books, the FDA and diet supplement laws is the 2013, 305 pp., $17.95. best I have read. He gives a wealth of THE SCIENCE OF MIRACLES: Investigating the Incredible. Joe Nic- interesting information while providing kell. Veteran investigator Nickell uses on-site examinations, lab incisive insights into why patients and experiments, and other detective methods to uncover the facts doctors do what they do. about incredible claims in six major categories: miraculous im- Those who are put off by the hostility ages (such as “weeping” icons), magical relics (like the Shroud of other authors toward alternative medi- of Turin and the Holy Grail), miracle healings (Lourdes and others), visionary experiences (including near-death experiences), cine may be receptive to Offit’s approach, saintly powers (such as stigmata), and “the devil’s work” (such since he thinks there is a place for alter- as demonic possession). A comprehensive, science-based study native medicine (if only as placebo med- of miracle claims. Prometheus Books, 2013, 375 pp., $18.00. icine). The book is well worth reading, whether you know a little or a lot about TALES OF PREHISTORIC LIFE: Pterosaur Trouble and Ankylosaur alternative medicine and whether you be- Attack. Daniel Loxton. Loxton—writer and editor of the kid- n friendly Junior Skeptic magazine—puts his considerable illustra- lieve in magic or not. tion talents to work on a follow-up to his award-winning children’s book Evolution in a new series of books for Kids Can Press titled Tales of Prehistoric Life. The two titles so far are Pterosaur Trou- Harriet Hall, MD, writes and educates about ble and Ankylosaur Attack, each focusing on a vignette in the life pseudoscientific and so-called alternative of a different prehistoric beast or dinosaur. The vibrant, photore- medicine. She is a Fellow and member of the alistic illustrations are top-notch, paired with scientifically and Executive Council of the Committee for Skep- historically accurate descriptions that are sure to feed interest in prehistoric life in kids and adults alike. Kids Can Press Books, tical Inquiry, a S I contribut- 2013, 28 pp., $16.95. ing editor, and regular contributor to the blog —Kendrick Frazier and Benjamin Radford Science-Based Medicine.

58 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer Bringing Bayes into Predictions

PAUL G. BROWN

ate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise is about the mathemat- The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Nics of an uncertain universe. It’s Fail—but Some Don’t. By Nate Silver. about the predictions that are possible Penguin Press HC, 2012. ISBN-13: 978-1594204111. playing dice or poker or betting on 544 pp. Hardcover, $27.95. basketball games. But it’s also about elections, the weather, earthquakes, the future of the planet’s climate, diagnos- ing diseases, or mitigating floods. The book is a useful addition to a skeptic’s bookshelf because the procedure it describes—known as Bayesian reasoning—is a basic building block of critical thinking. That said, there are better odds would entice you to bet against signal from noise. Silver also explains books out there on the subject, and the your belief? Silver doesn’t mention it, the perils of “over-fitting,” where inad- flaws in this one are instructive. but Bayesian thinking is what under- equate data chases over-precise models. Silver’s work on the 2008, 2010, and 2012 U.S. elections made fools of the pins an axiom Carl Sagan popularized: So far, so good. But The Signal and entire cacophony of “horse race” TV “Extraordinary claims require extraor- the Noise isn’t perfect. For starters, Sil- pundits. To predict which candidate dinary evidence.” If the probability of ver’s formal treatment of the mathe- will win, Silver starts with an educated your prior is very low, then the improb- matics is idiosyncratic. His presentation guess about the likely outcome based ability of your observation must be ex- meets his minimal obligation to rigor, on the broad sociopolitical climate: traordinarily high to compensate. and because it lacks the daunting mess unemployment, income growth, candi- Next, you observe the phenomenon of letters, lines, and parentheses, it’s date quality, and so on. Then he com- you’re interested in, measuring it in a probably easier to use in simple cases. bines this initial guess with polling data way that tells you whether you won or Unfortunately, readers will have a lot from multiple sources, calibrating each lost your bet. By applying some basic to relearn in the next book about Bayes pollster according to how well (or how algebra, you combine the information they pick up. Most textbooks introduce badly) they performed in the past. But in your prior with the evidence from Bayes using the notation of conditional rather than treating each new round of your observation to arrive at a new level probability, and they traditionally con- polling data as an exciting revelation of of belief called the posterior. But you vey the underlying intuition using Venn what is to come, he uses it instead to don’t stop there. In turn, this posterior diagrams or a lattice showing all possi- slightly adjust his guess. Then he waits becomes the prior for another round of ble outcomes. Not Silver. for more polls. betting and observation. And then an- Being an ardent Bayesian, Silver This method is quintessential Bayes. other. . . . also rejects frequentism and all of its The idea is to start with a general im- One of the strengths of Silver’s book works because of weaknesses inherent pression about what’s probably the is the way he demonstrates the limits of in its methods. Perhaps the best known case. For best results, use contextually this kind of reasoning. It is unreason- of these involves “p values” and what relevant information. But even a wild able to ask geologists to predict immi- they tell us about rejecting or accepting stab (50/50) or an educated guess (an nent, destructive earthquakes, Silver ex- some hypothesis. Most students learn expert’s 80/20 opinion) will do for plains, because destructive earthquakes standard experimental technique. Di- starters. We refer to the strength of are extremely rare, and the earth’s con- vide your subjects into control and test this belief as the prior. It’s useful to stant movement makes it hard to dis- groups (being careful to get the sizes think about the prior as a kind of bet, tinguish something significant from the right). Perform some procedure on the with a potential loss or payoff. Just how crust’s everyday flexing. In other words, test group. Then observe the control and much do you believe X is true? What prediction depends on distinguishing test groups’ outcomes. If the outcome

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 59 [REVIEWS

of the two groups differs, and if this atmospheric temperature should reduce he was familiar with doesn’t allow him difference is very unlikely to have oc- our subjective belief in the likelihood to consider the totality of the evidence. curred by chance alone, reject the “null” of anthropocentric climate change. He (Even his choice of decade was instruc- hypothesis that your procedure has no points out that the average global tem- tive. Temperatures were sharply up over effect. perature in 2011 was pretty much the the decade ending in 2009.) The rub lies in the phrase “by chance same as it was in 2001, where climate Bayesians can be subjective about alone.” Unlikely things happen all the their priors, but they must be ruth- time. By convention, we reject the null lessly objective about their evidence. A hypothesis when p < 0.05, which means Bayesian who fails to consider all the that a falsehood has a 1 in 20 chance of evidence is no better than a gambler being accepted. Bad enough. But what’s The rub lies in the who doesn’t pay up on losing bets. Fre- worse is the way this “false positive” ef- phrase “by chance quentists sometimes joke that a Bayes- fect can be exploited. Repeat the same ian is someone who expects a duck, sees experiment enough times and you’re alone.” Unlikely things a beaver, and concludes a platypus. To almost certain to eventually achieve any happen all the time. use Bayes as well as Sil ver’s basketball result you want, “by chance alone.” gambler it’s first necessary to immerse Silver is on solid ground here. But yourself in the minutia of whatever frequentist methods also provide tools you’re trying to understand. Silver for analyzing such data sets where failed to do that on the topic of climate Bayes is much harder to apply. In The change, and in doing so, demonstrates Signal and the Noise we learn that Silver change theories suggest that we should precisely how not to apply Bayes. What has made several careers with numbers. bet on an increase. makes Silver’s mistake even more in- He’s been a financial analyst, profes- In selecting temperature as his proxy structive is that the Intergovernmental sional poker player, and he’s written for climate change, Silver ignores a Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses perhaps the world’s best software for host of other indicators that experts in Bayesian techniques to integrate these predicting how well baseball pitch- the field also consider. If increases in multiple lines of evidence. ers will perform. But he’s never been atmospheric greenhouse gas levels are Silver’s book reads like it is fumbling a working scientist. And it shows. It’s increasing the amount of solar energy around the edges of a great problem. true that frequentist methods can be trapped by Earth’s atmosphere, then in Useful and mostly true, but not the last misapplied, but Bayes is no panacea. addition to temperature changes, scien- word. n Silver’s chapter on climate change tists predict a host of other effects: bi- is a good example of how not to do it. ological habitat changes, reduced polar After several pages of throat clearing ice, ocean acidification, reduced glacia- Paul G. Brown has spent twenty years about how strident the (nonscientific) tion, increases in the number and sever- putting bugs into software intended by its debate is, Silver explains how recent ity of “extreme weather” events, and so creators to play a useful role in large-scale moderation in the rate of increase in on. Silver’s selection of a single measure data analysis. He’s still at it. Guide for Authors

The S I appreciates editorial submissions from knowledgeable scientists, scholars, writers, and investigators.

But before submitting a manuscript (feature article, review, commentary, column, or special report), please read our updated and expanded Guide for Authors. It is on our website at: www.csicop.org/publications/guide.

It provides guidelines on length, form, style, and references and gives submittal instructions.

—The Editors

60 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer REVIEWS]

The Biography of America’s Lake Monster

BENJAMIN RADFORD

obert Bartholomew and his brother Paul grew up near the shores Rof Lake Champlain, which not The Untold Story of Champ: A Social History of America’s only sparked an early interest in the Loch Ness Monster. By Robert E. Bartholomew. lake monster said to dwell within the State University of New York Press, lake but also steeped them in the social Albany, New York, 2012. ISBN: 978-1-4384-4484-0. and cultural context of the mysterious 253 pp. Paperback, $24.95. beastie. In his new book, The Untold Story of Champ: A Social History of America’s Loch Ness Monster, Robert, a sociologist, Fortean investigator, and former broadcast journalist, takes a fresh look at Champ, long dubbed “America’s Loch Ness Monster.” Roy Mackal, and others who con- the Mansi photo, “New Information There have only been a handful of vened a 1981 conference titled, “Does Surfaces on ‘World’s Best Lake Mon- other books dealing in any depth or Champ Exist? A Scientific Seminar.” ster Photo,’ Raising Questions,” May/ scholarship with Champ, among them The intrigue between and among these June 2013.) Joe Zarzynski’s Champ: Beyond the Leg- researchers is interesting enough to fill Like virtually all “unexplained” phe- end, and of course Lake Monster Mys- several chapters. nomena, the history of Champ is in teries: Investigating the World’s Most There are several good books about part a history of hoaxes, and the book Elusive Creatures, coauthored by Joe the people involved in the search for examines several of them in detail, in- Nickell and myself. The Untold Story of Bigfoot, including Anatomy of a Beast: cluding a similar story from nearby Champ builds on these books and oth- Obsession and Myth on the Trail of Big- Lake George, which had its own lake ers, correcting some mistakes and put- foot by Michael McLeod, Bigfoot: The monster—and, of course, its own lake ting the information in its social and Life and Times of a Legend by Joshua monster hoax. Bartholomew’s book is, historical context—which, as I have Blu Buhs, and Searching for Sasquatch: at its heart, a skeptical book, but its goal often argued, is vitally important for Crackpots, Eggheads, and Cryptozoology is not to prove or disprove the creature’s truly understanding mysterious phe- by Brian Regal. But there has been existence. It is instead exactly what the nomena. Along the way, Bartholomew comparatively little insight into the subtitle announces: an objective social fills in fascinating gaps and details in motivations and personalities of those history of the creature covering nearly the story of Champ. searching for lake monsters, and this a century and half of sightings, discus- But Bartholomew does something book nicely fills that gap. sion, and debate, informed by folklore, that no other author has, taking us be- The book exhaustively reviews cryptozoology, Fortean studies, local hind the scenes for a glimpse at the Champ sightings, both early and mod- Vermont history, skepticism, and the colorful personalities that have gath- ern. Bartholomew uncovers common inevitable crackpot. ered over the years (and especially in myths along the way, such as that the Of interest to skeptics and believers the early 1980s when Champ fever was beast was first sighted by the explorer alike (and accessible to both the casual at its peak). The story of those who after whom the lake was named, Sam- mystery enthusiast and the academic re- looked for Champ is just as interesting uel de Champlain. The best evidence searcher), The Untold Story of Champ is as the story of Champ itself. Famed for Champ, the famous 1977 photo- one of the best books on the subject, and showman and huckster P.T. Barnum graph by Sandra Mansi, is presented it is especially recommended for those makes an important appearance (offer- in some detail, and the book offers with an interest in cryptozoology. n ing $50,000 for the monster’s carcass new, tantalizing revelations about the in 1873), as do many prominent cryp- circumstances of Mansi’s sighting and Benjamin Radford is deputy editor of the tozoologists, including Philip Reines, the publication of her photograph. (See S I and a member of the Loren Coleman, J. Richard Greenwell, also Bartholomew’s recent SI article on American Folklore Society.

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 61 [INBOX

were ignorant of the distance of also self-defeating: if one of the stars and planets from Earth and goals of the skeptic community equally ignorant of the effect of is to get believers to learn and light on humans. Similarly they accept science in various areas, are ignorant of constellations. then condescension and den- Indian astrology was chal- igration will not only serve to lenged by scientists like Pushpa “drive them deeper into their P. Bhargava in the Indian Su- mindset” (as a general matter), preme Court. The Court ex- but will also cause them to re- pressed the view that since ject both science and scientists astrologers wish to study from as “the enemy.” There are many a scientific point of view, they believers who accept science in may be given opportunity to do various areas (including a thir- so (March 2004). It was never teen-billion-year-old universe implemented, of course. and evolution) and might well People like Abraham Kovoor, be willing to accept more (over Dr. Narasimhaiah, vice chancel- time)—if they are approached lor of Bangalore University, and with respect and, yes, humility. humanist philosopher M.N. But the so-called “New Atheists” Roy (1887–1955) challenged refuse, seemingly on principle, the claims of Indian astrologers, to show any humility or respect which go unanswered, of course. whatsoever. Although Mr. Walker almost Innaiah Narisetti undermines his otherwise even- Former Chairman, handed tone with occasional CFI–India broad-brush and paternalistic Brookeville, Maryland asides, his overall approach is far more likely to find converts (or at least open minds) from the Respect and Humility “flat-Earth” mindset than the scorched-earth approach of Mr. Dawkins et al. Invisible Beings James Walker (“Understanding Believers’ Cognitive Dis sonance,” (Rev.) Ian Alterman New York, New York In the discussion of invisible Indian Astrology SI, March/April 2013) makes beings in the March/April a statement that is both highly The writer is pastor of Spirit Fel- 2013 issue (“Treatise on Invis- Jayant V. Narlikar’s article “An laudable and extremely critical lowship Ministries. ible Beings” by Joe Nickell and Indian Test of Indian Astrology” to the interaction between many (if not most) believers on the one James McGaha), one import- in your March/April 2013 issue hand, and the scientific and skep- ant consequence of invisibility exposed the unscientific nature Reading the March/April issue tic communities on the other: “If was ignored. A person such as of the populistic ancient belief. of the S I, I we merely mock or make light of H.G. Wells’s Invisible Man There are certain vital points to was struck by the breadth of a believer’s beliefs, without also would be blind! be noted which were missed in subjects to which skeptics apply We may first consider that the article. expressing our respect for their their critical thinking. Some are if the lens in each eye of the in- Indian astrology is based on right to hold those beliefs . . . curious and interesting, such visible person had the same re- nine planets—of which four are we will most likely drive them as “Invisible Beings,” “Ancient fractive index as air, it would not not planets. Rahu and Ketu are deeper into their mindset. While Aliens,” the “Perpetual [Motion] focus the image to the retina. At the mythological planets based we say that we want others to re- Discussion,” and the “Denver the very least, the person would on Hindu tradition. They are spect our beliefs, what we really Fly,” but are unlikely to affect see a blurred image. But we may nonexistent. The Sun is a star mean is that we want them to most of us directly. We are more go even further. We are able to and not a planet and yet it is respect us as individuals.” likely to be directly affected by see because the photons impact included as one of nine planets. Herein lies the problem with herbal medicine, as discussed the photoreceptors in the retina. The Moon is not a planet but is “fundamentalist” atheists such as by Steven Novella in “Herbs If all components of the eye are categorized as a planet. When Richard Dawkins, Sam Harris, Are Drugs” and in the long run Bill Maher, and the late Chris- totally transparent, there will be the major premises are wrong, by “Quackademic Medicine” topher Hitchens: their attitudes no impact and no signals will be naturally the conclusions cannot reported by Kendrick Frazier be right. and approaches are condescend- to be infiltrating our medical sent to the brain. Indian astrology never stud- ing, denigrating, and dismissive. schools. Even more common Ed Wysocki ied nor compared its system Even setting aside the mean-spir- are the telemarketing frauds Orlando, Florida with astronomy. The astrologers itedness of such an attitude, it is discussed by Anthony Pratkanis

62 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer (and reported by Frazier). I hope beliefs for nonrational reasons. so or not is a different and en- tance of the hoax. British scientists that these frauds and the mea- Rather, I see this episode in the tirely nonscientific question. were all too happy to show that sures to counteract them may relatively new field of anthro- In summary, I certainly ac- the dawn of humanity happened be discussed in detail in a future pology as an example of science cept Pigliucci’s point that sci- on British soil, for instance. So it issue of the S I. working as it should. entists often believe things for is not accurate to say that scientists Extending further into the There was no reason to sus- nonrational reasons; I just don’t accepted the findings for entirely marketplace from outright pect this discovery was a forgery believe the examples he used rational reasons. frauds are the even more com- designed to lead scientists to a were apt. Perhaps two better ex- The eugenics case is more common deceptions that we all are different trail of hominid evolu- amples might be Freudian psy- plex, and it is of course true that it aware of and that may be used tion. Anthropologists did their chology and N-rays. is possible, in principle, to geneti- best to fit it into the framework to sharpen our critical-thinking Randy Raymond cally “improve” the human species. of genuine hominid fossils they axes. Gambling in the form of Augusta, Georgia But I encourage interested readers lotteries, slot machines, and had at that time (1912). For to get acquainted with the history casinos plays upon our wish- reasons obvious to us now, they of eugenics, which did include ful thinking, although we may were never very successful at this In his column on the role of quite a number of pseudoscientific know that the chances of losing and usually showed Piltdown as sociology of science, Massimo notions, for instance related to race are greater than winning. Gam- an offshoot of the family tree Pigliucci criticizes the “strong genetics. bling has become a major in- they were trying to construct. program” of SSK (sociology of Don Martin’s comments are dustry, sanctioned by states and Their difficulties eventually led scientific knowledge) for want- interesting, but the fact remains providing from the “sucker tax” them to look at the fossil more ing a style of explanation that is that—quite apart from “feelings a major source of state revenue. critically and only then did they “symmetrical” so that the same of knowing”—it is not possible find it to be a clever hoax. causes would explain true and David W. Briggs to understand the scientific enter- false beliefs. James Alcock in Marion, Massachusetts Don Keith prise if one does not include epis- Waterloo, Ontario, Kendrick Frazier’s account of temological considerations along Canada the CSICon conference (same with the sociological and psycho- Rooting Out a Number issue), however, noted in a ses- logical approaches. Otherwise we sion on Belief and Memory, would have no way to tell science I enjoyed Massimo Pigliucci’s that “The ‘feeling of knowing’ I want to point out what is apart from any pseudo-claim to column “The Proper Role of So- is an emotion and is not tied to surely the least significant error knowledge. ciology of Science,” and agreed knowledge and may have noth- in the history of the S heartily with nearly every word ing to do with reality.” To this I. In the article on the of it. However, I believe the ex- reader it seems that the SSK Velikovsky and the Bible Elberfeld horses in the March/ amples he used to illustrate sci- program wants to understand April 2013 issue, the example entists holding beliefs for non- the social contributions to our It has long bemused me that problem given should contain rational reasons (Piltdown Man “feeling of knowing” and so the the critiques of Immanuel Veli- the number 4356 rather than and eugenics) did not illustrate symmetry the program looks for kovsky’s work (David Morrison’s 4536, since the former is a per- his point very well. First, scien- does not seem necessarily wrong. review of The Pseudoscience Wars, fect square while the latter is not, tists accepted the Piltdown fos- Everyone, whether committed to SI, March/April 2013) have con- and so no horse, however clever, sils for perfectly rational reasons. the methods of science or not, centrated almost exclusively on could tap out its square root. They were specifically treated believes numerous assertions his bizarre celestial mechanics, Thomas Pickett to look old, they were planted to be true, and some of every- rather than on his equally bizarre Evansville, Indiana with other fossils to give proper one’s beliefs are almost certainly use of the sources that allowed context, and the fossils were de- false. Finding the social (or the him to posit the Venus incident. Stefano Vezzani replies: signed to corroborate the then neurological, for that matter) It is well known that Veli- current hypothesis of what an contributions to that “feeling of kovsky’s primary aim was to val- Thank you. I will correct the mis- early human fossil would look knowing” does not seem an un- idate biblical accounts of such take in the book I’m writing on like. reasonable undertaking. events as the parting of the Red the topic. Second, eugenics cannot be Sea and the collapse of the walls Don Martin said to be a belief that is held of Jericho. Doing this would, he Toronto, Ontario, Canada for nonrational reasons. Scien- thought, encourage his readers Piltdown and Science tifically, it would be quite sur- to accept the remainder of the Sociology prising if it turned out that we Massimo Pigliucci replies: Bible as equally “true.” could not modify the characteris- Don Keith and Randy Raymond Beyond this, his modus ope- In his discussion of how science tics of human populations using are correct that the Piltdown randi was simply to apply the works (“The Proper Role of So- selective breeding techniques, episode is a good example of the same treatment to completely ciology of Science,” SI, March/ therefore it is perfectly rational (long-term) self-correcting mech- random ransackings of ancient April 2013), Massimo Pigliucci to believe that eugenics could anism of science. But sociological and modern myths that could be offers Piltdown Man as an exam- be applied for this purpose. factors were definitely not extra- construed as speaking of celestial ple of scientists holding untrue Whether we should actually do neous to the quick initial accep- and terrestrial events and that

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 63 [LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

are as different from one another use of such ahistorical sources is second paragraph. I have never same category as a crankshaft as they are alike. To do this, he sufficient of itself to undermine seen evidence that this was Ve- converting reciprocating motion further presumed that all these his further allegations that have likovsky’s motive or intent. I am to rotary motion. The drawing myths—however and wherever attracted so much attention. contacting Michael Gordin to ask itself shows a power input shaft collected—refer to the same At its source, it’s really nothing if he agrees. Velikovsky was a sec- on the right (20-21-22). event, which he then dated to more than another pedestrian ular Zionist in the European tra- I remember the Dean-ma- conform to his biblical chronol- demonstration of the Garbage dition. And he certainly was not chine story well. John Camp- ogy. Thus, whether they realize In, Garbage Out theorem. a Christian, so it seems weird to bell, the legendary editor of it or not, all Velikovskians are at Analog (maybe it was still called David Henige think that he accepted the remain- the same time Christian funda- Astounding then) featured it Madison, Wisconsin der of the Bible as “true.” mentalists as well. prominently, and proposed it Any sensible (i.e., evi- Michael D. Gordin, author of as a spaceship drive. I think it David Morrison replies: dence-driven) interpretations The Pseudoscience Wars, even got a cover illustration that of myth recognize that their I agree with much of Henige’s replies: month. Dean’s demonstration evidence is—at best—multiple letter. But Gordin in his book, model used an electric drill as a I agree completely with David. reified accounts that change dra- and I in my review, emphasized power source for rotary motion, Not only was Velikovsky not a matically, but undetectably, over pseudoscience, with Velikovsky as as I recall. Christian fundamentalist, he was time and that they can have no an example. So many people focus A high-school friend and rather hostile to Christian funda- probative value when treated as solely on Velikovsky and ignore I mocked up a crude model of mentalists, and one can easily ob- historical. the larger picture. the device and found that it did Velikovsky’s wildly uncritical I do disagree with Henige’s serve this in his engagement with produce some detectable output creationists, which I detail in thrust, as Dean described, but Chapter 5 of my book. The larger the spinning weights that pro- point, however, is about whether duced the thrust (14 and 16) Velikovsky thought that his pur- had to be of the same order of pose was to get people to accept the magnitude (mass) as the load the Bible as true. Although it is clear device was to lift, which would that for him the biblical evidence have made the whole thing im- was extremely important, both his practically heavy and bulky for own narratives and those avail- the heavy lifting that Dean and able from his reading notes, mar- Campbell proposed. ginalia, etc., show that part of the Dead-end device though it reason he found specific episodes may have been, it does not be- in the Bible to be credible is that long in the swamp of perpetual-motion gadgets, and Dean Point of Inquiry, named a top-ten podcast by they correlated with other ancient mythological evidence. The let- deserves an apology. Business Insider, is where the brightest minds of ter-writer might just as well have our time sound off on all the things you’re not Ken Moses said that Velikovsky’s goal was to Stillwater, Minnesota supposed to talk about at the dinner table: sci- substantiate the Vedas, which I ence, religion, society, and politics. doubt is the direction he would go. Chris Mooney, author of The Republican Brain Whatever else N.L. Dean may and The Republican War on Science, and neuro- have intended in his “Con- scientist (and opera singer) Indre Viskontas Perpetual Motion verting Rotary Motion into Uni- directional Motion” machine, it engage in pointed and critical conversations Re: “Perpetual Discussion!” by had nothing to do with “Perpet- with leading scientists, philosophers, social Mark Levy (Forum, SI, March/ ual Motion.” Mr. Levy should critics, and entertainers. April 2013). do a bit more research next time. While the gist of his article Paul Weber Previous guests include Brian Greene, properly denounced perpetual Albuquerque, New Mexico Susan Jacoby, Richard Dawkins, motion as pseudoscience, Mark Ann Druyan, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Levy committed what Terence Eugenie Scott, Adam Savage, Bill Nye, Hines, two articles later, calls Mark Levy’s excellent article was “one howling error.” The Dean Lawrence Krauss, and many more! slightly marred by a small error patent had nothing whatever in the explanation of the perpet- to say about perpetual motion ual motor. It is quite possible or running without an energy that the error lay in the patent input. It was entirely a method rather than Mark’s explanation. www.pointofinquiry.org of converting mechanical mo- Points: 1) the bellows cannot tion from one form to another remove “all the air” from the as the patent’s title says, in the bulb. Not even a good vacuum

64 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer pump could do that. 2) The to a simple typo (“Sandy Hook my story, delivered herself of a derstanding of the issues. I’m so buoyancy of the bulb is due School Shooting: The Adam few choice opinions on medical glad I watched that episode of Is difference to the in its “den- Lanza Death Certificate Con- records staffs, called the hospi- it Real . . . which led me to this sity” and the density of water. spiracy,” SI, May/June 2013) tal, identified herself, made a A vacuum-filled bulb would rang very true with me. Here’s few pointed comments, hung publication. be less dense and have greater why. up, and turned to me with a Marshall Wayne Lee buoyancy. Forcing compressed My son was born April smile, “Their internal records marshall_w_lee@ymail. air into the bulb would make 7, 1989, in King’s Daugh- have the birth in three separate it sink. The bellows compress ters Hospital, Temple, Texas. places, all showing April 7,” she com the air. When we received his birth said. Google for Cartesian diver certificate, however, it listed the The city changed the date. experiment. date of birth as April 4. Well, So did the state. I wrote a col- [FEEDBACK that’s easily explained; someone umn about the lady, who was Robert R. “bz” Zinn The letters column is a forum on wrote down the correct 4-7-89 about to retire, and at the next Programmer (retired) matters raised in previous issues. at some point and when it was city council meeting, the City Department of Chemistry, Letters should be no longer than re-entered they just entered a 4 of Temple honored her for her LSU followed by another 4 instead of dedication to public service. 225 words. Due to the volume Baton Rouge, Louisiana the correct 7. Occam’s Razor indeed. of letters we receive, not all can Like your example with the be published. Send letters as Mike Brown email text (not attachments) to Herbs as Food daughter of a friend, three days Editor was no big deal, but who knew [email protected]. In the subject what problems might come Rockdale Reporter line, provide your surname and in- Steven Novella (“Herbs Are Rockdale, Texas along in the next week or in formative identi fication, e.g.: “Smith Drugs,” SI, March/April 2013) Letter on Jones evolution article.” In- says that “Herbs have . . . the twenty or forty years. So I de- clude your name and address at the same potential for side effects cided I’d get it changed to the These Wonderful Articles end of the letter. You may also mail and toxicity as any drug.” But correct date. your letter to the editor to 944 Deer this is not true in the case where • We called the hospital, I’ve finally gotten a moment Dr. NE, Albuquerque, NM 87122. the herb in question is in wide- which informed us we’d have to spend with my first SI, and spread use as an herb. If I eat to get it changed by the state what a waste my waiting time a certain quantity of garlic be- because it was now part of their has been. Why did I wait so cause I think it provides some records. So I drove to Austin long to sit down and read these health benefit, I’m no more and went to the appropriate wonderful articles? Why did I likely to experience an adverse state agency. not stop everything right away effect than if I eat that same • They told me it was a and give the magazine a good quantity of garlic because I like county or city records issue and reading? I don’t know, but it the taste. Since we don’t ad- I would need to go to the Bell will not happen again. The ar- vise people to avoid garlic as a County Clerk in Belton or the ticles were all so well written, flavoring for fear of adverse ef- City of Temple. So, I drove to and all very interesting. I en- fects, we shouldn’t advise them Temple and went to City Hall. joyed how well researched the to avoid it as a remedy for that • Where I was told the city topics were. I loved the refer- reason. (We might tell them it’s did indeed have the birth certif- ence section, and all the APA useless as a remedy, but that’s icate for my son who was born style in-text citations. Nothing a different issue.) I would find on April 4. I told them that says upfront, honest, and care- the rest of what Dr. Novella was what I was there to correct. fully examined like in-text cita- says more credible if he would They said I needed to go to the tions and a reference page. distinguish between common hospital. Which I did. I enjoyed “Indignation Is Not foodstuffs and unusual and po- • At the hospital I was told Righteous” a great deal. The writ- tentially dangerous plants. they couldn’t change an official ing was great—the authors clearly government document, and defined the terms that leave no Ken Olum they suggested I contact the reader confused. Of course short Sharon, Massachusetts city. At this point I was pretty articles like the “Bees” held great frustrated (as you can imagine) appeal to me as well. Brevity is but I did decide to go back to not only the soul of wit but the When Certificates Temple City Hall one more mark of a clear argument. Get Dates Wrong time. Thank you so much for • Where I lucked out, met your work, and all the work of Ben Radford’s S I- one of these competent long- the authors—they spend many  column on the Adam time employees without whom hours reading, researching, and Lanza birth certificate, and the nothing would ever get done in documenting so that we can have likelihood its wrong date is due a bureaucracy. She listened to better articles and a better un-

Skeptical Inquirer | July/August 2013 65 [ THE LAST LAUGH BENJAMIN RADFORD, EDITOR

SKEPTICAL ANNIVERSARIES by Tim Farley

July 8, 1913: A St. Louis woman claims to begin communicating with a Pilgrim woman named “Patience Worth” via Ouija board.

July 20, 1993: Deputy White House Counsel Vince Foster’s suicide later spawns many political conspiracy theories.

July 22, 1933: George Spicer and his wife claim to see “a most extraordinary form of animal” near Loch Ness.

August 6, 1983: Michael Shermer has a “skeptic epiphany” during a bicycle race. He recounts the story in the first chapter of Why People Believe Weird Things.

August 15, 1978: A Federal Grand Jury indicts MarySue Hubbard and other top Scientologists as a result of “Operation Snow White.”

August 15, 2008: Two Georgia men hold a news conference with Bigfoot hunter Tom Biscardi regarding a frozen sasquatch corpse. It later turns out to be a Hal- loween costume stuffed with animal remains.

August 27, 2008: The television program Mythbusters airs an episode debunking Apollo moon landing hoaxes, later nominated for an Emmy award.

Tim Farley is a research fellow with the James Randi Educational Foundation and created the website whats- theharm.net.

66 Volume 37 Issue 4 | Skeptical Inquirer Scientific and Technical Consultants CENTERS FOR INQUIRY Gary Bauslaugh, John F. Fischer, Richard H. Lange, Daisie Radner, www.centerforinquiry.net/about/branches writer and editor, forensic analyst, Orlando, FL MD, Mohawk Valley Physician prof. of philosophy, SUNY Buffalo TRANSNATIONAL Victoria, B.C., Canada Eileen Gambrill, Health Plan, Schenectady, NY Robert H. Romer, Richard E. Berendzen, prof. of social welfare, Gerald A. Larue, prof. of physics, Amherst College 3965 Rensch Road, Amherst, NY 14228 Univ. of California at Berkeley Tel.: (716) 636-4869 astronomer, Washington, DC prof. of biblical history and Karl Sabbagh, archaeology, Univ. of So. California AUSTIN Martin Bridgstock, Luis Alfonso Gámez, journalist, Richmond, Surrey, England PO Box 202164, Austin, TX 78720-2164 science journalist, Bilbao, Spain senior lecturer, School of Science, William M. London, Robert J. Samp, Griffith Univ., Brisbane, Australia California State Univ., Los Angeles Tel.: (512) 919-4115 Sylvio Garattini, assistant prof. of education and CHICAGO Richard Busch, director, Mario Negri Pharma cology Rebecca Long, medicine, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison [email protected] magician/mentalist, Pittsburgh, PA Institute, Milan, Italy nuclear engineer, president of Geor gia Steven D. Schafersman, INDIANAPOLIS Council Against Health Fraud, Atlanta, GA Shawn Carlson, Laurie Godfrey, asst. prof. of geology, Miami Univ., OH 350 Canal Walk, Suite A, Indianapolis, IN 46202 anthropologist, Univ. of Massachusetts Society for Amateur Scientists, Thomas R. McDonough, Chris Scott, Tel.: (317) 423-0710 East Greenwich, RI lecturer in engineering, Caltech, and SETI Gerald Goldin, statistician, London, England LOS ANGELES mathematician, Rutgers Univ., NJ Coordinator of the Planetary Society 4773 Hollywood Blvd., Hollywood, CA 90027 Roger B. Culver, Stuart D. Scott Jr., prof. of astronomy, Colorado State Univ. Donald Goldsmith, James E. McGaha, associate prof. of anthropology, Tel.: (323) 666-9797 astronomer, USAF pilot (ret.) Felix Ares de Blas, astronomer; president, Interstellar Media SUNY Buffalo MICHIGAN 3777 44th Street SE, Grand Rapids, MI 49512 prof. of computer science, Alan Hale, Chris Mooney, Erwin M. Segal, Tel.: (616) 698-2342 Univ. of Basque, San Sebastian, Spain astronomer, Southwest Institute for Space journalist, author, host of Point of Inquiry prof. of psychology, SUNY Buffalo Research, Alamogordo, NM NEW YORK CITY J. Dommanget, Joel A. Moskowitz, Carla Selby, astronomer, Royale Observatory, director of medical psychiatry, Calabasas PO Box 26241, Brooklyn, NY 11202 Clyde F. Herreid, anthropologist /archaeologist Tel.: (347) 699-0234 Brussels, Belgium prof. of biology, SUNY Buffalo Mental Health Services, Los Angeles Steven N. Shore, SAN FRANCISCO

Nahum J. Duker, Matthew C. Nisbet, prof. of astrophysics, Univ. of Pisa, Italy assistant prof. of pathology, Sharon Hill, assistant professor, School of email: [email protected] Temple Univ. geologist, writer, researcher, creator and Communication, American Univ. Waclaw Szybalski, TAMPA BAY editor of the Doubful News blog professor, McArdle Laboratory, Univ. 4011 S. Manhattan Ave. #139, Tampa, FL 33611-1277 Taner Edis, John W. Patterson, of Wisconsin–Madison Tel.: (813) 505-7013 Division of Science/Physics Michael Hutchinson, prof. of materials science and WASHINGTON, DC Truman State Univ. author; SKEPTICAL INQUIRER en gineering, Iowa State Univ. Sarah G. Thomason, representative, Europe prof. of linguistics, Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA 921 Pennsylvania Ave. SE, Washington, DC 20003 Barbara Eisenstadt, James R. Pomerantz, Tel.: (202) 543-0960 psychologist, educator, clinician, Philip A. Ianna, prof. of psychology, Rice Univ. Tim Trachet, ARGENTINA East Greenbush, NY assoc. prof. of astronomy, journalist and science writer, honorary Tim Printy, Buenos Aires, Argentina Univ. of Virginia chairman of SKEPP, Belgium William Evans, amateur astronomer, UFO skeptic, former Tel.: +54-11-4704-9437 prof. of communication, William Jarvis, Navy nuclear reactor operator/division chief, David Willey, www.cfiargentina.org physics instructor, Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA Center for Creative Media prof. of health promotion and public health, Manchester, NH CANADA Bryan Farha, Loma Linda Univ., School of Public Health Gary P. Posner, 2 College Street, Suite 214 Toronto, Ontario, prof. of behavioral studies in I.W. Kelly, MD, Tampa, FL M5G 1K3, Canada education, Oklahoma City Univ. prof. of psychology, Univ. of Saskatch ewan, CHINA Canada China Research Institute for Science Popularization, NO. 86, Xueyuan Nanlu Haidian Dist., Beijing, 100081 China Affiliated Organizations | United States Tel.: +86-10-62170515 EGYPT ALABAMA D.C./MARYLAND MINNESOTA South Shore Skeptics (SSS) Cleveland 44 Gol Gamal St., Agouza, Giza, Egypt Alabama Skeptics, Alabama. Emory National Capital Area Skeptics NCAS, St. Kloud Extraordinary Claim Psychic and counties. Jim Kutz. Tel.: 440 942- FRANCE Kimbrough. Tel.: 205-759-2624. 3550 Maryland, D.C., Virginia. D.W. “Chip” Teaching Investigating Community 5543; Email: [email protected]. PO Dr. Henri Broch, Universite of Nice, Faculte des Water melon Road, Apt. 28A, Northport, Denman. Tel.: 301-587-3827. Email: (SKEPTIC) St. Cloud, Minne sota. Jerry Box 5083, Cleveland, OH 44101 www. Sciences, Parc Valrose, 06108, Nice cedex 2, AL 35476 [email protected]. PO Box 8428, Silver Spring, Mertens. Tel.: 320-255-2138; Email: southshoreskeptics.org France Tel.: +33-492-07-63-12 MD 20907-8428 [email protected]. Jerry Mer- ARIZONA Association for Rational Thought (ART) GERMANY http://www.ncas.org tens, Psychology Department, 720 4th Tucson Skeptics Inc. Tucson, AZ. James Cincinnati. Roy Auerbach, president. Ave. S, St. Cloud State Univ., St. Cloud, Arheilger Weg 11, 64380 Rossdorf, Germany Mc Gaha. Email:[email protected]. FLORIDA Tel: (513)-731-2774, Email: raa@cinci. MN 56301 Tel.: +49-6154-695023 5100 N. Sabino Foot hills Dr., Tucson, Tampa Bay Skeptics (TBS) Tampa Bay, rr.com. PO Box 12896, INDIA AZ 85715 Florida. Gary Posner, Executive Director. MISSOURI Cin cinnati, OH 45212. www.cincinnati 46 Masi garh, New Friends Colony Tel.: 813-505-7013; Email: Skeptical Society of St. Louis (SSSL) skeptics.org Phoenix Area Skeptics Society (PASS) New Delhi 110025 [email protected]. c/o O’Keefe, St. Louis, Missouri. Michael Blanford, http://phoenixskeptics.org OREGON 4011 S. Manhattan Ave. #139, Tampa, President. Email: [email protected]. Tel.: 91-9868010950 Email: [email protected] Oregonians for Science and Reason LONDON FL 33611-1277. www.tampabayskept 2729 Ann Ave., St. Louis, MO 63104 (O4SR) Oregon. Jeanine DeNoma, Phoenix Skeptics, Phoenix, AZ. Michael Conway Hall, 25 Red Lion Square, ics.org www.skepticalstl.org president. Tel.: (541) 745-5026; Email: Stack pole, P.O. Box 60333, Phoenix, London WC1R 4RL, England The James Randi Educational St. Joseph Skeptics [email protected]; 39105 Military Rd., AZ 85082 Foun dation. James Randi, Director. Tel: P.O. Box 8908 Monmouth, OR 97361. www.04SR.org NEPAL CALIFORNIA Humanist Association of Nepal, (954)467-1112; Email [email protected]. St. Joseph MO, 64508-8908 PENNSYLVANIA Sacramento Organization for Rational PO Box 5284, Kathmandu Nepal 201 S.E. 12th St. (E. Davie Blvd.), Fort NEVADA Philadelphia Association for Critical Thinking (SORT) Sacramento, CA. Ray Tel.: +977-1-4413-345 Lauderdale, FL 33316-1815. www. Reno Skeptical Society, Inc., Think ing (PhACT), much of Pennsylvania. Spangenburg, co-founder. Tel.: 916-978- randi.org Brad Lutts, President. Bob Glickman, Presi dent. Tel.: 215-885- NEW ZEALAND 0321; ILLINOIS Tel.: (775) 335-5505; 2089; Email: [email protected]. email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]. PO Box 2215, Rational Examination Association Email: [email protected]. 18124 By mail c/o Ray Haupt, 639 W. Ellet St., NIGERIA Carmichael, CA 95609-2215 http://home. of Lincoln Land (REALL) Illinois. Bob Wedge Parkway #1052 Reno, Nevada Philadelphia PA 19119, phactpublicity@ PO Box 25269, Mapo, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria comcast.net/~kitray2/site/ Ladendorf, Chairman. Tel.: 217-546- 89511. www.RenoSkeptics.org aol.com Tel.: +234-2-2313699 Bay Area Skeptics (BAS) San Fran- 3475; Email: [email protected]. PO NEW MEXICO TENNESSEE PERU cisco—Bay Area. Eugenie C. Scott, Box 20302, Springfield, IL 62708 www. New Mexicans for Science and Reason Rationalists of East Tennessee, East D. Casanova 430, Lima 14, Peru President. 1218 Miluia St., Berkeley, CA reall.org (NMSR) New Mexico. David E. Thomas, Ten nessee. Carl Ledenbecker. Tel.: email: [email protected] 94709. Email: [email protected]. www. Chicago Skeptics Jennifer Newport, President. Tel.: 505-869-9250; Email: (865)-982-8687; Email: Aletall@aol. POLAND BASkeptics.org contact person. Email: chicagoskeptics@ [email protected]. PO Box 1017, com. 2123 Stony brook Rd., Louis ville, Lokal Biurowy No. 8, 8 Sapiezynska Sr., Independent Investigations Group (IIG), gmail.com. www.chicagoskeptics.com Peralta, NM 87042. www.nmsr.org TN 37777 00-215, Warsaw, Poland Center for In quiry–West, 4773 Hollywood LOUISIANA NEW YORK TEXAS ROMANIA Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90027. Tel.: 323- Baton Rouge Proponents of Rational New York City Skeptics Michael Feldman, North Texas Skeptics NTS Dallas/Ft Fundatia Centrul pentru Constiinta Critica 666-9797. www.iigwest.com Inquiry and Scientific Methods president. PO Box 5122 New York, NY Worth area, John Blanton, Secretary. Tel.: (40)-(O)744-67-67-94 Sacramento Skeptics Society, Sacra- (BR-PRISM) Louisiana. Marge Schroth. 10185. www.nycskeptics.org Tel.: (972)-306-3187; Email: skeptic@ email: [email protected] mento. Terry Sandbek, President. 4300 Tel.: 225-766-4747. 425 Carriage Way, ntskeptics.org. PO Box 111794, Carroll- RUSSIA Central New York Skeptics (CNY Skeptics) Auburn Blvd. Suite 206, Sacramento CA Baton Rouge, LA 70808 ton, TX 75011-1794. Dr. Valerii A. Kuvakin, 119899 Russia, Moscow, Vo- 95841. Tel.: 916 489-1774. Email: terry@ Syracuse. Lisa Goodlin, President. Tel: www.ntskeptics.org MICHIGAN sandbek.com (315) 636-6533; Email: info@cnyskeptics. robevy Gory, Moscow State Univ., VIRGINIA Great Lakes Skeptics (GLS) SE Michi- org, cnyskeptics.org PO Box 417, Fayett- Philosophy Department San Diego Asso ciation for Rational Inquiry Science & Reason, Hampton Rds., gan. Lorna J. Simmons, Contact person. ville, NY 13066 SENEGAL (SDARI) President: Paul Wenger. Tel.: 858- Tel.: 734-525-5731; Email: Skeptic31 Virginia. Lawrence Weinstein, Old PO Box 15376, Dakar – Fann, Senegal 292-5635. Program/general information OHIO Dominion Univ.-Physics Dept., Norfolk, @aol.com. 31710 Cowan Road, Apt. Tel.: +221-501-13-00 619-421-5844. www.sdari.org. 103, West land, MI 48185-2366 Central Ohioans for Rational Inquiry VA 23529 Postal ad dress: PO Box 623, La Jolla, CA (CORI) Central Ohio. Charlie Hazlett, Tri-Cities Skeptics, Michi gan. Gary WASHINGTON 92038-0623 President. Tel.: 614-878-2742; Email: Seattle Skeptics Barker. Tel.: 517-799-4502; Email: bark- [email protected]. PO Box 282069, CONNECTICUT www.seattleskeptics.com [email protected]. 3596 Butternut St., Columbus, OH 43228 New England Skeptical Society (NESS) Saginaw, MI 48604 New England. Steven Novella M.D., Presi- Cleveland Skeptics Joshua Hunt, dent. Tel.: 203-281-6277; Email: board@ Co-Organizer, www.clevelandskeptics.org

theness.com. 64 Cobblestone Dr., Ham-

den, CT 06518 www.theness.com

C Y E The organizations listed above have aims similar to those of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry but are independent and autonomous. N I R T U E Q Representatives of these organizations cannot speak on behalf of CSI. Please send updates to Barry Karr, P.O. Box 703, Amherst NY 14226-0703. R F O R I N International affiliated organizations listed at www.csicop.org.

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