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2013.11.12 2256 Draft National Security Amicus Brief USCA Case #13-5192 Document #1465846 Filed: 11/12/2013 Page 1 of 39 ! ORAL ARGUMENT NOT YET SCHEDULED No. 13-5192 UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT _____________________________ ALEC L., et al., Plaintiffs – Appellants, v. GINA McCARTHY, et al., Defendants – Appellees, and THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MANUFACTURERS, et al., Intervenors for Defendants – Appellees _____________________________ On Appeal from the Unites States District Court for the District of Columbia (No. 11-cv-02235 (RLW)) _____________________________ BRIEF OF NATIONAL SECURITY EXPERTS AS AMICI CURIAE IN SUPPORT OF PLAINTIFFS-APPELLANTS SEEKING REVERSAL _____________________________ Matthew E. Miller Cuneo Gilbert & LaDuca, LLP 507 C Street NE Washington, DC 20002 ph: 202-789-3960 fax: 202-789-1813 Counsel for Amici Curiae ! USCA Case #13-5192 Document #1465846 Filed: 11/12/2013 Page 2 of 39 STATEMENT REGARDING SEPARATE BRIEFING Under D.C. Circuit Rule 29(d), amici curiae certify that it would not be practicable to file a joint brief with interests not related to national security and that a separate brief is necessary. To their knowledge, amici certify that no other amicus curiae brief supporting appellants addresses the various threats climate change poses for U.S. national security. Amici represent venerable, retired military officers who are experts on the national security implications of climate change and in a unique position to offer information to the Court on their area of expertise. ! i! USCA Case #13-5192 Document #1465846 Filed: 11/12/2013 Page 3 of 39 CERTIFICATE OF INTERESTED PARTIES, RULINGS, AND RELATED CASES A. Parties and Amici. Except for the following, all parties, intervenors, and amici appearing before the district court and in this Court are listed in the Brief for Plaintiffs-Appellants: Brigadier General Steve Anderson, USA (ret.), Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (Ret.), and Rear Admiral David W. Titley, USN (ret.) are amici curiae in this appeal. B. Rulings under Review. References to the rulings at issue appear in the Brief for Plaintiffs-Appellants. C. Related Cases. References to related cases appear in the Brief for Plaintiffs- Appellants. Respectfully submitted, Dated: November 12, 2013 /s/ Matthew E. Miller Matthew E. Miller Counsel for Amici Curiae ! ii! USCA Case #13-5192 Document #1465846 Filed: 11/12/2013 Page 4 of 39 TABLE OF CONTENTS STATEMENT REGARDING SEPARATE BRIEFING………………………….i CERTIFICATE OF INTERESTED PARTIES, RULINGS, AND RELATED CASES……………………………………………………………….ii TABLE OF CONTENTS……………………………………………………..….iii TABLE OF AUTHORITIES…………………………………………………...…v GLOSSARY……………………………………………………………………...ix IDENTITIES AND INTERESTS OF AMICI CURIAE…………............................1 SUMMARY OF ARGUMENT……………………….............................................4 ARGUMENT………….............................................................................................5 I. Climate Change Threatens Economic and Human Security in the U.S………………………………………………………….....7 II. Climate Change Threatens U.S. Soldiers, Military Installations, and Military Operations……………………………………………..8 III. Climate Change Provides Conditions Ripe for Terrorism and Extremism…………………………………………………………..11 IV. Regional Impacts of Climate Change Adversely Impact American Interests and Security…………………………………….13 A. Water Scarcity and Food Security……………………………14 B. Region-Specific Climate Change Impacts Important for U.S………………………………………………………...17 1. Africa…………………………………………………..17 ! iii! USCA Case #13-5192 Document #1465846 Filed: 11/12/2013 Page 5 of 39 2. Greater Middle East……………………………………19 3. Asia…………………………………………………….20 V. U.S. Military Recognizes National Security Threats of Climate Change and Calls on Other Parts of Government to Act…..24 CONCLUSION …………………………………………………………………..26 CERTIFICATE OF COMPLIANCE WITH RULE 32(a) ……………………….28 CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE……………………………………………………29 ! iv! USCA Case #13-5192 Document #1465846 Filed: 11/12/2013 Page 6 of 39 TABLE OF AUTHORITIES1 OTHER AUTHORITIES A perfect desert storm: Political extremism, Libyan weapons and changing weather patterns are causing turmoil in the Sahel, ECONOMIST (May 17, 2012) http://www.economist.com/node/21550324/ ................................................ 13, 14 Army Environmental Policy Report, Sustain the Mission Project: Casualty Factors for Fuel and Water Resupply Convoys (2009), http://www.aepi.army.mil/docs/ whatsnew/SMP_Casualty_Cost_Factors_Final1-09.pdf ................................. 9, 10 Bruce W. Jentleson, et al., Strategic Adaptation: Toward a New U.S. Strategy in the Middle East (2012), http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/ CNAS_StrategicAdaptation_JentlesonExum_0.pdf............................................ 19 Bryan Bender, Chief of US Pacific Forces Calls Climate Biggest Worry, BOSTON GLOBE (Mar. 9, 2013), http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/03/09/ admiral-samuel-locklear-commander-pacific-forces-warns-that-climate-change- top-threat/BHdPVCLrWEMxRe9IXJZcHL/story.html ...................................... 22 Caitlin E. Werrell & Francesco Femia, The Arab Spring and Climate Change (2013), http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/ ClimateChangeArabSpring.pdf ........................................................................... 20 Central Intelligence Agency, News & Information, CIA Opens Center on Climate Change and National Security (Sept. 25, 2009), https://www.cia.gov/news- information/press-releases-statements/center-on-climate-change-and-national- security.html........................................................................................................ 25 Climate Change and African Political Stability, THE ROBERT S. STRAUSS CENTER, https://www.strausscenter.org/ccaps/ (last visited Oct. 17, 2013) ...................... 25 Deloitte, Energy Security—America’s Best Defense: A study of increasing dependence on fossil fuels in wartime, and its contribution to ever higher casualty rates (2009), http://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-UnitedStates/ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 Authorities upon which we chiefly rely are marked with asterisks. ! v! USCA Case #13-5192 Document #1465846 Filed: 11/12/2013 Page 7 of 39 Local%20Assets/Documents/AD/us_ad_EnergySecurity052010.pdf............. 9, 10 Envtl. Prot. Agency, Technical Support Document for Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act (Dec. 9, 2009), http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/ endangerment/Endangerment_TSD.pdf ................................................................ 8 Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, Climate Change, Water, and Food Security (2011), http://www.fao.org/docrep/014/ i2096e/i2096e.pdf.......................................................................................... 16, 17 Francesco Femia & Caitlin Werrell, Climate and Security 101: Why the U.S. National Security Establishment Takes Climate Change Seriously (2012), http://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/climate-and-security- 101_why-the-u-s-national-security-establishment-takes-climate-change- seriously1.pdf ........................................................................................................ 7 Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA), Global Water Security, ICA 2012-08 (2012), http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Special Report_ICA Global Water Security.pdf ............................................................................................. 15, 17, 25 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Adaptation (2012) http://ipcc- wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-All_FINAL.pdf.................................... 17 James R. Clapper, Dir. of Nat’l Intelligence, Statement of Record: Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community (Mar. 12, 2013), http://www.intelligence.senate.gov/130312/clapper.pdf..................................... 17 James R. Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community (2013), http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ Intelligence Reports/2013 ATA SFR for SSCI 12 Mar 2013.pdf....................... 25 Lauren Ploc, Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, Africa Command: U.S. Strategic Interests and the Role of the U.S. Military in Africa (2011), http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL34003.pdf.................................... 18 *Michael McElroy & D. James Baker, Climate Extremes: Recent Trends with Implications for National Security (2012), http://environment.harvard.edu/sites/ ! vi! USCA Case #13-5192 Document #1465846 Filed: 11/12/2013 Page 8 of 39 default/files/climate_extremes_report_2012-12-04.pdf ......... 7, 8, 11, 13, 14, 23, 24 NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES, NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR U.S. NAVAL FORCES (2011) ....................................................................................................................... 15, 25 NOAA, Billion Dollar U.S. Weather/Climate Disasters 1980-2012 (2013) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events.pdf.................................................. 8, 9 Office of Naval Research & Naval Ice Center, Naval Operations in an Ice-Free Arctic, Report from Symposium (2001), http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/star/ documents/2007IceSymp/FinalArcticReport_2001.pdf...................................... 11 *The CNA Corporation, Military Advisory Board,
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