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National Security and the Threat of Climate Change

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SecurityAndClimate.cna.org To the reader, MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD During our decades of experience in the U.S. military, we have addressed many national security challenges, from containment and deterrence of the Soviet General Gordon R. Sullivan, USA (Ret.) Chairman, Military Advisory Board nuclear threat during the Cold War to terrorism and extremism in recent years. Global climate change presents a new and very different type of national Admiral Frank “Skip” Bowman, USN (Ret.) security challenge. The CNA Corporation is a nonprofit institution that conducts in-depth, independent research and Over many months and meetings, we met with some of the world’s leading analysis. For more than 60 years we have helped bring creative solutions to a vast array of complex Lieutenant General Lawrence P. Farrell Jr., USAF (Ret.) climate scientists, business leaders, and others studying climate change. We public-interest challenges. For more information, visit www.cna.org. Vice Admiral Paul G. Gaffney II, USN (Ret.) viewed their work through the lens of our military experience as warfighters, General Paul J. Kern, USA (Ret.) planners, and leaders. Our discussions have been lively, informative, and very sobering. Admiral T. Joseph Lopez, USN (Ret.) Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are greater now than at any time in CONTACT INFORMATION: Admiral Donald L. “Don” Pilling, USN (Ret.) the past 650,000 years, and average global temperature has continued a steady Noel L. Gerson rise. This rise presents the prospect of significant climate change, and while Admiral Joseph W. Prueher, USN (Ret.) Vice President, Communications and Public Affairs uncertainty exists and debate continues regarding the science and future extent The CNA Corporation Vice Admiral Richard H. Truly, USN (Ret.) of projected climate changes, the trends are clear. 4825 Mark Center Drive • Alexandria, Virginia 22311 The nature and pace of climate changes being observed today and the General Charles F. “Chuck” Wald, USAF (Ret.) (703) 824-2758 • [email protected] consequences projected by the consensus scientific opinion are grave and pose General Anthony C. “Tony” Zinni, USMC (Ret.) equally grave implications for our national security. Moving beyond the arguments of cause and effect, it is important that the U.S. military begin planning to address APPROVED FOR DISTRIBUTION: these potentially devastating effects. The consequences of climate change can affect the organization, training, equipping, and planning of the military services. The U.S. military has a clear obligation to determine the potential impacts of climate change on its ability to execute its missions in support of national security objectives. Sherri Goodman Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the Executive Director, Military Advisory Board most volatile regions of the world, and it presents significant national security General Counsel, The CNA Corporation challenges for the United States. Accordingly, it is appropriate to start now to help mitigate the severity of some of these emergent challenges. The decision This document represents the best opinion of The CNA Corporation at the time of issue. to act should be made soon in order to plan prudently for the nation’s security. The increasing risks from climate change should be addressed now because they will almost certainly get worse if we delay. Copyright 2007 The CNA Corporation LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL • SecurityAndClimate.cna.org 3 THE MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD GENERAL GORDON R. SULLIVAN, USA (Ret.) Former Chief of Staff, U.S. Army Chairman, Military Advisory Board ADMIRAL FRANK “SKIP” BOWMAN, USN (Ret.) Former Director, Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program; Former Deputy Administrator-Naval Reactors, National Nuclear Security Administration LIEUTENANT GENERAL LAWRENCE P. FARRELL JR., USAF (Ret.) Former Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs, Headquarters U.S. Air Force VICE ADMIRAL PAUL G. GAFFNEY II, USN (Ret.) Former President, National Defense University; Former Chief of Naval Research and Commander, Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Command GENERAL PAUL J. KERN, USA (Ret.) Former Commanding General, U.S. Army Materiel Command ADMIRAL T. JOSEPH LOPEZ, USN (Ret.) Former Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Naval Forces Europe and of Allied Forces, Southern Europe ADMIRAL DONALD L. “DON” PILLING, USN (Ret.) Former Vice Chief of Naval Operations ADMIRAL JOSEPH W. PRUEHER, USN (Ret.) Former Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) and Former U.S. Ambassador to China VICE ADMIRAL RICHARD H. TRULY, USN (Ret.) Former NASA Administrator, Shuttle Astronaut and the first Commander of the Naval Space Command GENERAL CHARLES F. “CHUCK” WALD, USAF (Ret.) Former Deputy Commander, Headquarters U.S. European Command (USEUCOM) GENERAL ANTHONY C. “TONY” ZINNI, USMC (Ret.) Former Commander-in-Chief of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) SHERRI W. GOODMAN Executive Director, Military Advisory Board The CNA Corporation Study Team David M. Catarious Jr. Ronald Filadelfo Henry Gaffney Sean Maybee Thomas Morehouse THE MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD • SecurityAndClimate.cna.org 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS We are thankful to several people for their support of this effort. Rear Adm. THE MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD 3 Richard Pittenger, USN (Ret.) of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institu- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 tion, and Dr. Fiona Horsfall of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric ABOUT THE REPORT 9 Administration provided many valuable insights into climate science and Voice of Experience: General Gordon Sullivan (Ret.) on Risk 10 reviewed our draft report. Dr. Robert Frosch, former assistant secretary of GEO-STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 12 the Navy for research and development and former NASA administrator, Voice of Experience: Vice Admiral Richard H. Truly (Ret.) on Drawing 14 currently at Harvard University, also reviewed our draft report and provided His Own Conclusions suggestions for improvement regarding the science of climate change. Dr. Kent Voice of Experience: Admiral T. Joseph Lopez (Ret.) on Climate Change 17 Butts of the Army War College, Dr. Geoffrey D. Dabelko of the Woodrow and the Conditions for Terrorism Wilson International Center for Scholars, and Franklin D. Kramer, former REGIONAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 19 assistant secretary of defense, reviewed our report and provided valuable Voice of Experience: General Charles F. “Chuck” Wald (Ret.) on Climate Change in Africa 21 Voice of Experience: Vice Admiral Paul G. Gaffney II (Ret.) on Military Research 23 comments on sources of conflict and security issues related to climate change. and Climate Science We thank the following persons for briefing the Military Advisory Board: Voice of Experience: Admiral Joseph W. Prueher (Ret.) on Climate Change in the Pacific 25 Dr. James Hansen, lead climate scientist and director, NASA Goddard Voice of Experience: Lieutenant General Lawrence P. Farrell Jr. (Ret.) on Climate, 26 Institute for Space Studies; Dr. Anthony Janetos of the H. John Heinz III Energy and Battlefield Readiness Center for Science, Economics and the Environment; Dr. Richard Moss, Voice of Experience: General Anthony C. “Tony” Zinni (Ret.) on Climate Change, 31 Instability and Terrorism senior director, Climate and Energy, United Nations Foundation, formerly Voice of Experience: Admiral Donald L. Pilling (Ret.) on Operational Challenges 33 director of the U.S. Global Change Research Program Office; Mr. Justin of Climate Change Mundy, senior advisor to the Special Representative on Climate Change, UK Voice of Experience: General Paul J. Kern (Ret.) on Weather, Logistics, 35 Foreign and Commonwealth Office; Maj. Gen. Richard Engel, USAF (Ret.), and the Causes of War deputy national intelligence officer for science and technology, National DIRECT IMPACTS ON MILITARY SYSTEMS, INFRASTRUCTURE, 36 Intelligence Council; Mr. Randy Overbey, former president, Alcoa Primary AND OPERATIONS Voice of Experience: Admiral Frank “Skip” Bowman (Ret.) on Climate Change, Energy, 41 Metals Development; Mr. Kenneth Colburn, of the Center for Climate and National Security Strategies; and Dr. Robert Socolow of Princeton University. FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 43 APPENDIX 1: BIOGRAPHIES, MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD MEMBERS 50 APPENDIX 2: CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE—A BRIEF OVERVIEW 56 References 61 4 SecurityAndClimate.cna.org TABLE OF CONTENTS • SecurityAndClimate.cna.org 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Projected climate change will add to Defense Strategy should include appropriate tensions even in stable regions of the world. guidance to military planners to assess risks to The U.S. and Europe may experience mounting current and future missions caused by projected pressure to accept large numbers of immigrant climate change. The next Quadrennial Defense The purpose of this study is to examine the In the national and international security and refugee populations as drought increases Review should examine the capabilities of the U.S. national security consequences of climate environment, climate change threatens to add and food production declines in Latin America military to respond to the consequences of climate change. A dozen of the nation’s most respected new hostile and stressing factors. On the and Africa. Extreme weather events and natural change, in particular, preparedness for natural retired admirals and generals have served as a simplest level, it has the potential to create disasters, as the U.S. experienced with Hurricane disasters from extreme weather events, pandemic Military Advisory Board to study how climate sustained
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