Climate Adaptation and the Department of Defense John Conger Director, The Center for Climate and Security 10/30/2019 All About the Mission

• DoD’s approach to climate change has, in some ways, insulated it from political winds. • In general, emissions have not been a focus. Energy efficiency that drives down costs or renewable projects that either lower costs or improve resiliency have been pursued, but emissions reductions have always been a co-benefit, not the goal. • For DoD, the early acceptance of climate change has been driven by the recognition that it would impact mission. Center for Naval Analyses - 2007

• If you want to read only ONE climate document, read the 2007 CNA report: National Security and the Threat of Climate Change • This report, authored by a remarkable group of retired generals and admirals, brought together the security concerns about climate change and put them in a single place with an unassailable set of messengers. Three DoD Concerns about Climate

1. How it affects current missions, operations and readiness • Infrastructure impacts from flooding and sea-level rise, drought and wildfire, permafrost thaw, increased precipitation, extreme weather. • More than $10B in damage in the last year from extreme weather • Readiness constraints and training impacts • Recent reports on increased health impacts from extreme heat, more black flag days, limits to live-fire exercises for fear of causing wildfire 2. How it Drives Future Missions • Arctic ice receding – creating a whole new ocean and new tensions with Russia and China • More humanitarian assistance and disaster response requirements – will impact readiness Three DoD Concerns about Climate (cont)

• 3. Impacts on geopolitics – “Threat Multiplier” • Key is not to rank climate change against other threats, but rather to look at how it changes, shapes and drives them. • Climate drives instability – doesn’t create conflict per se, but it makes it more likely. • Example: Syrian civil war – record drought from 2007-10 created significant displacement of rural population – helped create the conditions that led to conflict • Water scarcity, food insecurity, displacement and migration, existential threat to some island nations, some parts of the Middle East and India will become uninhabitable • Resource conflict – control over fresh water supplies (e.g. India/Pakistan) Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap – 2014

• While the Quadrennial Defense Review in 2010 (and again in 2014) was a critical document in that it included climate change as a key strategic concern, the Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap in 2014 laid out the DoD strategy on climate. (If you read TWO documents on DoD and climate, read this one after the CNA report.) • Goal 1: Identify and assess the effects of climate change on the Department • Goal 2: Integrate climate change considerations across the Department and manage associated risks. • Goal 3: Collaborate with internal and external stakeholders on climate change challenges. DoD Adaptation Process: Four Key Ingredients

• Acknowledge the problem. • Promulgate guidance on how to perform adaptation – particularly for implementation • Perform localized assessment and planning to understand vulnerabilities and impacts. • Projects!

(Not pretending this list is complete, but these are four key ingredients in the process.) Acknowledge the Problem

• “I agree that the effects of a changing climate — such as increased maritime access to the Arctic, rising sea levels, desertification, among others — impact our security situation. I will ensure that the department continues to be prepared to conduct operations today and in the future, and that we are prepared to address the effects of a changing climate on our threat assessments, resources, and readiness.” - Former Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, 3/14/2017 • “[C]limate change is a direct threat to the national security of the United States and is impacting stability in areas of the world both where the United States Armed Forces are operating today, and where strategic implications for future conflict exist…” Public Law 115-91 (FY18 Defense Authorization Act), Signed by President Donald J. Trump, 12/12/2017

Click here for more quotes. Promulgate Guidance

• Cannot manage millions of people without guidance documents – cannot assume people are aware of direction from HQ – need to formalize. Cannot assume anyone has a Twitter account, so tweets can’t count as instructions. • DoD Directive 4715.21: Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience (1/14/2016) • Unified Facilities Criteria (multiple references) • Climate Adaptation for DoD Natural Resource Managers • Naval Facilities Command Installation Adaptation and Resilience Planning Handbook • Congressional Direction – e.g. milcon rules for floodplains (must be 2-3 feet above flood level), expanded existing authorities to include climate resilience (REPI, OEA, DAR) Installation Assessments

• Largely nonexistent – much work to be done. • Initial DoD work (Screening Level Vulnerability Assessment Survey) too broad, and results quality variable. • Need installation by installation assessments – both House and Senate versions of the FY20 National Defense Authorization Act have versions of a requirement for Military Installation Resilience Plans. • Need to understand community vulnerabilities to fully understand installation vulnerabilities. (see Hampton Roads JLUS) Resilience Projects

• Spend existing budget with an eye toward resilience • $10 billion in annual military construction ($1T real property portfolio) • More than $10B in recovery costs from recent hurricanes, floods – they’re looking to build resiliently to reduce damage from the next storm Difference between two key $1B projects (Offutt AFB and Kwajalein) and the consequences • Floodplain rules to reduce future damage • “For Langley Air Force Base (AFB) which is in that same region, we’ve already raised the elevations of our new construction. We’ve already moved mechanical rooms and things like that from basements to higher elevations. So part of it’s just – as you said – prudent planning and I think that’s being done, both on the Navy side but certainly on the Air Force side. We are already altering how we do the engineering work to protect our facilities and our missions.” - Maj Gen Tim Green, AF Civil Engineer, 4/12/2018 • Small number of new resilience projects: • Energy Resilience and Conservation Investment Program ($150M request) – shift from conservation to resilience in portfolio • $49M to increase floodwall height of drydock at Norfolk Naval Shipyard • REPI Challenge grant at Kings Bay, GA (first of these encroachment grants to incorporate protections from storm surge) • Cape Lisburne ($47M for a sea-wall to protect long range radar site in Alaska, threatened by ice melt and consequent coastal erosion) • DoD will need a resource strategy as it thinks about how to manage requirements it identifies. Key Takeaways

• For DoD, this is still all about mission. Mission is driving a focus on resilience.

• Climate change is affecting DoD missions today.

• DoD is still in the middle of this process: working through assessments and planning processes.

• Funding is a challenge, but is more likely for response than prevention. However, adaptation and resilience rules are being applied to new construction – including response funding. Backup Slides When Did the Security Community Start Paying Attention?

Sampling of Significant Climate Security Reports/Actions •1990s: CIA Environmental Task Force, MEDEA 2003: DoD International Security” Office of Net Assessment, An Abrupt Climate Change •2012: U.S. DoD Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap Scenario & Its Implications for US National Security •2014: U.S. DoD, Quadrennial Defense Review •2007: CNA Military Advisory Board Report: National •2015: G7, A New Climate for Peace: Taking Action on Security & the Threat of Climate Change Climate and Fragility Risks report •2008: National Intelligence Assessment on the National •2015: U.S. National Security Strategy Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 •2016: DoD Dir. Climate Adaptation & Resilience •2009: Establishment of the U.S. Navy Task Force Climate •2016: Sea Level Rise and the U.S. Military’s Mission: Change Center for Climate and Security •2010: U.S. DoD, Quadrennial Defense Review •2017: Statements by SECDEF Mattis, VCJCS Selva, •2011: Defense Science Board Report, “Trends and SECNAV Spencer, ASD Niemeyer Implications of Climate Change for National and Risks to Critical Military Infrastructure

Virginia (Hampton Roads) Risks to Military Infrastructure

Storm surge projections in cm for 1774 coastal U.S. military sites worldwide – yr. 2065

Source: SERDP 2015

Projected average storm surge in 50yrs (2065) for U.S. military sites: centimeters Risks to Critical Military Infrastructure

Indo-Asia-Pacific • USPACOM Area of Responsibility (AOR) encompasses half of the earth’s area and includes 49 major bases across multiple Pacific nations (excluding those in the U.S.) • Significant coastal military infrastructure on low-lying sites • Sea level rise and storm surge a significant threat: By 2100, a realistic low-end projection is an additional 1 foot of sea level rise globally, with an upper end projection of 4 feet or higher. • Likely dramatic increase in HA/DR missions in 21st century, including cascading disasters Locations of OCONUS DoD Buildings in the Pacific14 (Samaras, 2015, in “The U.S. Asia-Pacific Rebalance, National Security and Climate Change,” The Center for Climate and Security) Sources

Geographies of risk Key U.S. military documents 2017: Epicenters of Climate and Security: The New Geostrategic 2016: DoD Directive 4715.21: Climate Change Adaptation and Landscape of the Anthropocene, Center for Climate and Security Resilience. U.S. Department of Defense 2016: Military Expert Panel Report: Sea Level Rise and the U.S. Military’s 2014: Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap, U.S. Department of Mission, Center for Climate and Security Defense 2015: The U.S. Asia-Pacific Rebalance, National Security and Climate 2014: National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change, Femia F. and Werrell C., foreword by Admiral Samuel J. Locklear, Change, CNA Corporation III, USN (ret), former U.S. Pacific Commander, Center for Climate and 2014: Quadrennial Defense Review, U.S. Department of Defense Security, November 2015 2013: The Arab Spring and Climate Change. Werrell, C. and Femia, F. 2014: US Navy Arctic Roadmap: U.S. Department of the Navy Center for Climate and Security, Center for American Porgress, The 2011: Defense Science Board Task Force Report: Trends and Stimson Center. Implications of Climate Change for National and International 2012: Cooperation from Strength: The United States, China and the Security: Department of Defense South China Sea. Cronin, P. et al., Center for a New American Security (CNAS)

Conflict What can be done? 2015: Werrell, Femia and Sternberg, “Did We See it Coming? State Fragility, 2016: Climate and Security Advisory Group Briefing Book, Center for Climate Vulnerability, and the Uprisings in Syria and Egypt,” SAIS Review of Climate and Security International Affairs, Volume 35, Number 1, Winter-Spring 2015, pp. 29-46 2015: Climate Change as Threat Multiplier: Understanding the Broader 2014: USAID: Climate Change and Conflict, Findings and Lessons Learned Nature of the Risk, Center for Climate and Security from Five Case Studies in Seven Countries 2014: “National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change,” 2012: Syria: Climate Change, Drought and Social Unrest. Femia, F. and CNA Corporation Werrel, C. Center for Climate and Security 2012: Protecting Americans in the 21st Century: Communicating Priorities 2012: Special Issue: Climate Change and Conflict. Journal of Peace Research. for 2012 and Beyond. National Homeland Security Consortium. 2011: Degrees of Risk: Defining a Risk Management Framework for Climate Security. Mabey, N. et al. E3G Read More

• The Center for Climate and Security: www.climateandsecurity.org

• Climate and Security Resource Hub: www.climateandsecurity.org/resources

• Climate Security 101: www.climatesecurity101.org