A SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HOW LIKELY WARMING SCENARIOS INDICATE A CATASTROPHIC SECURITY FUTURE PRODUCED BY THE NATIONAL SECURITY, MILITARY, AND INTELLIGENCE PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (NSMIP) FEBRUARY 2020 AN INSTITUTE OF THE Front cover image: Soldiers from the Florida National Guard's Alpha Battery, 1-265th Air Defense Artillery, perform high water search and rescue with members of the Coast Guard, St. Johns Fire Rescue, first responders, in Flagler Estates, Florida. (Photo by Ching Oettel/The National Guard/Flickr). The National Security, Military, and Intelligence Panel on Climate Change is a project of the Center for Climate and Security, representing senior U.S. leaders across all three sectors. With generous support from the Henry M. Jackson Foundation. This report should be cited as: Guy, Kate at al. “A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change: How Likely Warming Scenarios Indicate a Catastrophic Security Future.” Product of the National Security, Military, and Intelligence Panel on Climate Change. Edited by Femia, Francesco and Werrell, Caitlin. The Center for Climate and Security, an institute of the Council on Strategic Risks. Washington, DC. February 2020. © 2020 The Center for Climate and Security, an institute of The Council on Strategic Risks The Center for Climate and Security, an institute of The Council on Strategic Risks 1025 Connecticut Ave., NW ∙ Suite 1000 ∙ Washington, DC 20036 www.climateandsecurity.org - www.councilonstrategicrisks.org AN INSTITUTE OF THE A SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HOW LIKELY WARMING SCENARIOS INDICATE A CATASTROPHIC SECURITY FUTURE An International Security Threat Assessment of Two Warming Scenarios Conducted by U.S. National Security, Military and Intelligence Professionals FEBRUARY 2020 The Center for Climate and Security, an institute of The Council on Strategic Risks 1025 Connecticut Ave., NW ∙ Suite 1000 ∙ Washington, DC 20036 www.climateandsecurity.org - www.councilonstrategicrisks.org 3 THE NATIONAL SECURITY, MILITARY, AND INTELLIGENCE PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (NSMIP) Hon. John Conger General Ronald Keys, USAF (Ret.) Director, Center for Climate and Security Advisory Board Member, Center for Climate and Security Former Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Former Commander, Air Combat Command (Comptroller), U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Chairman, CNA Military Advisory Board Francesco Femia Dr. Marcus D. King Co-Founder, The Center for Climate and Security Senior Fellow and Advisory Board Member, Center for Research Director, The Council on Strategic Risks Climate and Security John O Rankin Associate Professor, and Director of the Hon. Sherri Goodman Master of Arts in International Affairs Program (MAIA), Senior Strategist and Advisory Board Member, Center Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington for Climate and Security University Secretary General, International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) Dr. Rod Schoonover Former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense Advisory Board Member, Center for Climate and Security (Environmental Security), U.S. Department of Defense Founder and CEO, Ecological Futures Group Former Senior Analyst and Senior Scientist, Bureau of Kate A. Guy Intelligence and Research, U.S. Department of State and Senior Research Fellow, Center for Climate and Security as Former Director of Environment and Natural Resources Panel Chair and Principal Investigator at the National Intelligence Council (NIC) Rear Admiral Leendert “Len” Hering Sr., USN (Ret.) Joan D.B. VanDervort Advisory Board Member, Center for Climate and Advisory Board Member, Center for Climate and Security Security Former Deputy Director for Ranges, Sea and Airspace, Former Commander, Naval Surface Group Pacific Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Northwest, Navy Region Northwest, and Navy Region (Readiness) Southwest Swathi Veeravalli Alice C. Hill Advisory Board Member, Center for Climate and Security Advisory Board Member, Center for Climate and Interdisciplinary Research Scientist, Geospatial Research Security Laboratory, Engineer Research and Development Center, Former Special Assistant to the President and Senior US Army Corps of Engineers Director for Resilience, National Security Council Caitlin E. Werrell Lieutenant General Arlen D. Jameson, USAF (Ret.) Co-Founder, The Center for Climate and Security Advisory Board Member, Center for Climate and Research Director, The Council on Strategic Risks Security Vice Chairman of the Air Force Academy’s Board of Admiral Paul Zukunft, USCG (Ret.) Visitors Advisory Board Member, Center for Climate and Security Former Deputy Commander-in-Chief of U.S. Strategic Former Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard Command Ambassador Richard D. Kauzlarich Distinguished Visiting Professor, George Mason University Former National Intelligence Officer for Europe, and former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan and Bosnia and Herzegovina The Center for Climate and Security, an institute of The Council on Strategic Risks 1025 Connecticut Ave., NW ∙ Suite 1000 ∙ Washington, DC 20036 www.climateandsecurity.org - www.councilonstrategicrisks.org 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 INTRODUCTION 14 THE CLIMATE SECURITY NEXUS 18 REGIONAL CLIMATE SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENTS 24 AFRICOM: AFRICA 29 CENTCOM: MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA 35 EUCOM: EUROPE AND RUSSIA 40 INDOPACOM: INDO-ASIA-PACIFIC 46 NORTHCOM: NORTH AMERICA AND POLAR REGIONS 52 SOUTHCOM: SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 58 GLOBAL CLIMATE SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT 64 GLOBAL CLIMATE SECURITY THREAT PROFILE 71 CONCLUSION 72 ANNEX: SCENARIO METHODOLOGY 73 REFERENCES 75 The Center for Climate and Security, an institute of The Council on Strategic Risks 1025 Connecticut Ave., NW ∙ Suite 1000 ∙ Washington, DC 20036 5 www.climateandsecurity.org - www.councilonstrategicrisks.org EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As national security, military and intelligence professionals with decades of experience, we have dedicated our careers to anticipating, analyzing and addressing security threats to the United States, with the goal of protecting all citizens from harm. That includes threats ranging from the proliferation and use of nuclear weapons, to the likelihood of terrorist attacks striking our shores. With this report, we set out together to fully assess one of the most pressing threats to both national and global security in the 21st Century - climate change. Climate change is an evolving and multidimensional threat, caused by no single actor, but perpetuated by current human systems of energy, transportation, agriculture, and resource use. According to the world’s top empirical research, the impacts of climate change have the potential to destabilize human life at all levels. Using our unique expertise in the national security, military and intelligence fields, we assess the risks posed by climate change through a security lens. Based on our research, we have determined that even at scenarios of low warming, each region of the world will face severe risks to national and global security in the next three decades. Higher levels of warming will pose catastrophic, and likely irreversible, global security risks over the course of the 21st century. KEY FINDINGS • If global emissions are not reigned in, the world will experience destabilizing changes in both the near and medium-to-long terms which pose significant threats to security environments, infrastructure, and institutions. • At low levels of warming, the areas hit the hardest are those that are already the most vulnerable: dry and arid regions, least-developed countries, small island states, and the Arctic polar region. These are areas of significant military engagement, and climate impacts threaten to further destabilize these fragile regions. • Northern, industrialized regions will also face significant threats at all levels of warming. In longer term, high emissions warming scenarios, these countries could experience catastrophic security risks, including high levels of migration and a breakdown of key infrastructure and security institutions. • The world is currently on track for a high level of global average warming, and our emission trajectory is proceeding. Even proposed international commitments, like those made under the Paris Climate Agreement, are not nearly commensurate to contain the threat. • Without concerted efforts at both climate change mitigation and adaptation, we risk high- impact and catastrophic threats to our collective and national security. The Center for Climate and Security, an institute of The Council on Strategic Risks 1025 Connecticut Ave., NW ∙ Suite 1000 ∙ Washington, DC 20036 www.climateandsecurity.org - www.councilonstrategicrisks.org 6 On current, high-end emissions trajectories, warming levels could reach between 2.3 and 4.1°C / 5.0 and 7.4°F above pre-industrial temperature levels by the end of the century. Even if all existing climate policies are implemented, we are on track to increase global temperatures by as high as 3.2°C/5.8°F by the end of the century.1 2 3 These ranges represent a wide span of potential climate futures, in which humans could mitigate emissions to contain warming to the lower end of the threat spectrum or allow relatively unabated actions to warm the planet to even more dangerous thresholds. On current emissions trajectories, global warming levels could reach 2°C/3.6°F as soon as mid-century and 4°C/7.2°F as soon as the end of the century.4 5 Climate change will have significant impacts on security across