Mediterranean Politics Middle East The Israeli Palestinian conflict: the Chances for Peace, the Road Map

Riad Malki occupation of Palestinian territories, the world community in general to take Director the expulsion of the Palestinian popu- or lead any action beyond slogans and Panorama: the Mediterranean Year Panorama, Center for the lation and forcing them to become a dialogue. Such a situation was advan- Dissemination of Democracy nation of refugees, and their replace- tageous for Israel because the US was and Community Development, ment with Israeli settlers, eliminated the in the forefront, and will continue to be Jerusalem Palestinians, or even eliminated the in- there, to the detriment of Palestinian ternationality of their cause. rights and needs.

It was only in the last decade that we Agreements that have been reached, 2003 The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is becom- started to see serious international in- starting with the Oslo agreement, were ing one of the oldest conflicts in mod- terest in finding an end to the conflict. either not implemented or not adhered Med. ern times. It contains multiple layers It was the second gulf war that promp- to by both parties, thus adding to alrea- of complexity, including the most pro- ted the conservative American admi- dy existing human suffering and further found elements of both humanity and nistration to seek the assembly of an complicating the possible achieve- religion, transforming it into the most international effort to impose an official ment of peace. Ten years after the Oslo unique conflict of its kind. It has been dialogue in Madrid and negotiations in agreement was signed in the While the source of regional instability and Washington, with the intention of find- House, the situation in the field is even world concern; it has shaped the face ing an agreed formula for peace. The worse. The guarantors of the Oslo 110-111 of the Middle East in the most dramatic US administration had realised the in- agreement failed the very signatories of way, forcing a sense of regression fluence that the conflict has on Arabs the agreement, failed the peoples of against modernity, progress and re- and Muslims alike, and has under- Palestine and Israel, and thus failed forms; it engulfs the majority of the stood the influence that such conflict themselves. In the aftermath of the Arab countries in its blazing fire, forc- can have on the stability in the Middle failure of Oslo, the US administration ing a collective solidarity among the East and on the need for a secured tried on different occasions to over- Arabs and elevating the conflict into flow of oil to the West. come the failure through a set of ma- higher dimensions. All countries in the It was always clear from our point of rathon meetings between the Pales- world see themselves as stakeholders view that without serious US interven- tinians and the Israelis, which resulted in such a conflict for a variety of rea- tion in the conflict there would be no in the total collapse of discussions, and sons, and either for being Arab, Mus- real and lasting peace, and the idea of confirmed the need for an imposed lim, non-allied, neighbouring nations, bringing the Americans to play the fa- solution on the parties or an active and Mediterranean, or as a result of strate- cilitator was considered by many ob- fair third party role with international gic assets, and whether the point of servers as an impossible task due to presence in the field to act as an inter- view be religious, historical, humanist- the support Israel receives from the US mediary between the two parties and ic, anti-colonial, Zionist, from solidarity administration. While pushing for to put an end to the human suffering, or Jewish lobbies, or simply to satisfy stronger involvement from the EU, the as a first step toward a permanent the US administration. Palestinians realised that the Europe- solution. It is more than fifty-five years since the ans do prefer to follow the path set by Unfortunately the US administration Palestinian Nakba and the Israeli liber- the US rather than to establish one of was vehemently against direct involve- ation, and the conflict is only growing their own. The Palestinians thus found ment in the conflict due to the Israeli worse, at least in terms of human suf- themselves trapped in a catch-22 sit- rejection of the idea, and also seemed fering, and extending its complexity uation: unable to reject the exclusive reluctant to exhort any pressure on Is- through the creation of new fundamen- American role in any peace efforts de- rael in order to force them to accept tal facts, favouring the conviction that spite its protection of Israel and its pro- the implementation of previously agre- the conflict is unsolvable. All the war- vision of unconditional support, and on ed measures. In this way the US dam- ring over the last fifty years has not eli- the other hand also lacking any willing- aged further its reputation as a fair me- minated Israel. Neither have the total ness from the Europeans, the Arabs or diator, and in the process forced both the Palestinians and the Arabs to ques- expected pressure and the involvement tinian land, thus leaving only forty-two tion the whole theory of US super- of human resources. percent, just as proposed both in the vision. It took the US administration The first stage of the plan calls for the Road Map and in Sharon’s strategy, the more than six months to declare the abolition of the existing circumstances, fears of the Palestinian people are only proposed peace plan, eventually given including a range of issues from violence further fuelled. Palestinians are calling the name of the Road Map. The Bush to settlement activities, reforms and for the emission of the second phase administration was not willing to force negotiation, to the withdrawal of Israeli of the plan, in the fear that they will be Israel into an undesired negotiating po- troops and the collection of illegal weap- forced to accept the second phase as sition, and even when it finally declared ons. Such expected actions are in es- permanent, and with less than half the its plan, the US automatically elimi- sence the issues that prevent either land they feel they are owed. nated the role of its partners in the side from reaching any compromise, Despite Palestinian fears, they do be- Quartet, and only allowed a virtual role and without direct and extensive US in- lieve that the Road Map offers them the of consultation based on distance meet- tervention there will be no desire on only opportunity for progress through a ings. While the Palestinian leadership either side to fulfil its part. To agree to process of negotiations. The Road Map agreed to the unconditional accept- send between only eight and twelve offers the Palestinians, for the first time ance of the plan, the Israeli government US office observers to the field was not in history, the chance to have their own was granted the advantage of being the response expected in the Palestin- independent state by the year 2005. permitted to lobby the American admi- ian camp, but it was the Israeli demand The Palestinian people have been ask- nistration for certain changes before its which was ultimately the factor that ing for more rigorous US and interna- publication, and went as far as to make forced the US to operate accordingly. tional intervention and involvement, their approval of the plan conditional to Eight to twelve observers, sitting in always fearing that if left to Israeli con- the introduction of fourteen basic their offices in Jerusalem, will not lead trol, no progress will ever be made. For changes, which if implemented would to any progress on the ground, as was the first time in history we have achie- undermine the entire structure of the somehow expected to take place. ved a world consensus on a peace plan and transform it into a completely The plan’s second phase calls for the plan, and for the first time, despite its different document. creation of a Palestinian state with virtual role, the Quartet represents The continuation of the Palestinian Inti- temporary borders, a concept that has the major players in world policy and fada, the Israeli incursions into the Pal- neither any legal interpretation nor his- contains the necessary components estinian territories and the re-occupa- torical precedent. The fear among the for any required success, which must tion of the Palestinian land, as well as Palestinians that what is temporary always be based on serious commit- the closure and the sieges, the total might become permanent is a firm ap- ment from third parties, and a serious destruction of the Palestinian infra- prehension. Sharon never hid his strat- determination to implement measures structure, not to mention the civilians egy to offer the Palestinians only forty- on the part of the main parties involved killed on both sides, have dealt a detri- two percent of the land of the West in the conflict. The resolve of the main mental blow to the Road Map plan, and Bank and the Gaza Strip for a self-gov- parties is not sufficient for any prog- forced the US to rethink its direct inter- erning entity, which is not far removed ress, which requires the direct and vention. Still, the US involvement did from the proposed idea in the second profound involvement of the third party. not follow the expected procedure, and phase of the Road Map. When added So far, the Road Map has lacked both. the US administration, which was al- to the proposed construction of the se- However, if the present holds any ways acting with the next presidential paration wall, which will swallow more chance at all for peace it is to be found elections in mind, failed to maintain the than fifty-eight percent of the Pales- in the Road Map.