Welsh Language Impact Assessment for Wylfa Newydd: Supplementary Planning Guidance
Assessment Report Welsh Language Impact Assessment
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Contents
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Purpose of this Report 1 1.2 Context 1 1.3 Welsh Language Impact Assessment 4 1.4 Report Structure 5
2. The Draft Wylfa Newydd SPG 7
2.1 Introduction 7 2.2 Vision and Objectives 7 2.3 Project-Wide Guidance 8 2.4 Broad Locational Guidance 10 2.5 Applying WLIA to the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG 12
3. Methodology 13
3.1 Introduction 13 3.2 Review of Relevant Plans and Programmes 13 3.3 Collation and Analysis of Baseline Data 13 3.4 Assessment of the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG 14 3.5 Technical Difficulties 16
4. National and Local Policy Context for the Welsh Language 17
4.1 Introduction 17 4.2 UK Wide National Policy Statements 17 4.3 National Policy and Guidance 18 4.4 Local Policy and Guidance 20 4.5 Summary 23
5 Overview of the Welsh Language on Anglesey 24
5.1 Introduction 24 5.2 Welsh Language Skills 24 5.3 Distribution of Welsh Speakers 25
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5.4 Change in Welsh Language Skills 26 5.5 Age and the Welsh Language 29 5.6 Demographic Change and the Welsh Language 29 5.7 Summary 34
6. Impact Assessment 35
6.1 Introduction 35 6.2 Population 35 6.3 Quality of Life 43 6.4 Economy 51 6.5 Infrastructure 59 6.6 Summary of Key Findings 67
7 Monitoring and Next Steps 70
7.1 Monitoring 70
Appendix A Levels of Welsh Language Skills on Anglesey, 2011 71
Appendix B Baseline Information for the WLIA Criteria, by electoral division, 2016 73
Appendix C Welsh Language Skills by Industry, 2011 75
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1 Introduction
1.1 Purpose of this Report
1.1.1 The New Nuclear Build at Wylfa: Supplementary Planning Guidance (Wylfa NNB SPG) was adopted by the County Council in July 2014. Since its adoption, there have been a number of important changes that have prompted a need to revise the adopted SPG.
1.1.2 As a result of these changes, the County Council has determined that the adopted Wylfa NNB SPG should be revised in order to ensure that it continues to provide a sound basis for guiding decisions on the Wylfa Newydd Project. The County Council therefore consulted on the revised guidance and the Wylfa Newydd: Supplementary Planning Guidance (SPG) was formally adopted on the 15th May 2018.
1.1.3 This report presents the findings of the Welsh Language Impact Assessment (WLIA) of the Wylfa Newydd SPG.
1.1.4 This report wasissued alongside Wylfa Newydd SPG for public consultation.
1.2 Context
Wylfa Newydd Project 1.2.1 A site beside the existing operational Magnox nuclear power plant on the Wylfa Peninsula (which totals 300 hectares) has been identified by the UK Government in the National Policy Statement (NPS) for Nuclear Power Generation – EN-6 as a possible site for a new nuclear power station. Horizon Nuclear Power have developed plans to deliver at two UK Advanced Boiling Water Reactors (ABWRs), generating 2,700 MW at Wylfa.
1.2.2 Construction of the new nuclear power station is a Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project (NSIP) under the Planning Act 2008. Legislation provides that projects like the Wylfa Newydd project are of such potential importance to the UK that a different consenting process to the “normal” grant of planning permission by the local planning authority applies. Under this process, Horizon proposes to submit an application for a Development Consent Order (DCO) for the power station to the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. The application will be made through the Planning Inspectorate who, following examination, will recommend to the Secretary of State whether development consent should be granted or not. The final decision on whether to grant or refuse development consent rests with the Secretary of State.
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1.2.3 Although the County Council is not the consenting authority for the NSIP, it will seek to ensure that development has regard to the strategic policies and principles of the Development Plan (the Anglesey and Gwynedd Joint Local Development Plan (JLDP) adopted on 31st July 2017), the relevant NPSs, national (Wales) planning policy and guidance and supplementary planning guidance.
1.2.4 The Wales Act 2017 has had important implications for the process by which the Wylfa Newydd project promoter could seek consent for the range of associated development to support the construction and operation of Wylfa Newydd. The Act enables associated development for Welsh energy Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects (NSIPs) with a generating capacity of more than 350MW (like Wylfa Newydd) to be determined by the relevant Secretary of State as part of a Development Consent Order (DCO) application. Previously, associated development was not covered by the Planning Act 2008 in Wales and would therefore have been determined by the County Council (unless ‘called-in’ by Welsh Ministers). However, Horizon and any other third parties promoting projects related to Wylfa Newydd (for example, enabling works in advance of the approval of a DCO and proposals by other parties to help meet the needs related to Wylfa Newydd) will require consent through the Town and Country Planning Act 1990 (as amended).
1.2.5 The project promoter has revised the likely associated / related development required as part of the Wylfa Newydd Project during three stages of formal Pre-Application Consultation (in 2014, 2016 and 2017) relating to the proposals as well an informal ‘Project Update’ consultation in January 2016. Horizon’s third Stage Pre-Application Consultation (PAC 3), consulted on between May and July 2017, set out a number of proposals which included:
On-site campus providing temporary workers’ accommodation (Site Campus) for up to 4,000 workers;
A temporary Park and Ride facility at Dalar Hir for construction workers;
A temporary Logistics Centre at Parc Cybi;
A5025 off-line highway improvements; and
An electrical connection to the National Grid substation.
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Wylfa Newydd: Supplementary Planning Guidance 1.2.6 Supplementary planning guidance is a means of setting out detailed thematic or site specific guidance on the way in which development plan policies will be applied in particular circumstances or areas. The purpose of the Wylfa Newydd SPG is to provide supplementary advice on important local direct or indirect matters and to set out the County Council’s interpretation of national and local policy in the context of the Wylfa Newydd project.
1.2.7 More specifically, the SPG is intended to:
Inform the position which will be adopted by the County Council in its Local Impact Report1 and relevant sections of the Statement of Common Ground2;
Provide a planning framework (alongside the Development Plan and other planning policy guidance) that helps guide the applicant(s) and influences the design and development of the Wylfa Newydd Project elements to ensure sustainable outcomes, with a focus on associated development and related development;
Inform pre-application discussions related to the main site and associated developments and related development;
Offer supplementary local level guidance, consistent with the relevant NPSs, which the Planning Inspectorate and the Secretary of State may consider both important and relevant to the decision-making process; and
Form a material consideration in the assessment of any Wylfa Newydd Project related Town and Country planning applications submitted by Horizon or other development promoters and businesses who may have, or wish to pursue, an interest in the project.
1.2.8 The Wylfa Newydd SPG is the subject of this WLIA and comprises the following core elements:
The County Council’s vision and associated objectives for the Wylfa Newydd project and SPG;
Project-wide guidance related to the main potential impacts associated with the project and which is designed to help ensure that associated development is
1 As part of the Planning Act 2008 process, the County Council will be invited to submit a Local Impact Report giving details of the likely impact of the proposed Wylfa Newydd Project on Anglesey. Further information on the preparation of local impact reports is available via the Planning Inspectorate’s website: http://infrastructure.planningportal.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Advice-note-1v2.pdf. 2 A statement of common ground is a written statement prepared jointly by the applicant and another party or parties such as the County Council, setting out any matters on which they agree. Statements of common ground help focus on the examination of the material differences between the main parties.
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sustainably located, taking account of the existing and emerging evidence base and national and local planning policy; and
locational guidance with respect to development at the main Wylfa Newydd Project site and areas of search to help direct associated developments.
1.3 Welsh Language Impact Assessment
1.3.1 The Welsh language, alongside Welsh culture and heritage, are integral elements of the social fabric of Anglesey’s communities and are central to many people’s sense of identity. The 2011 Census showed that approximately 57% of people in Anglesey speak Welsh which is substantially greater than the average across Wales (19%).
1.3.2 The Welsh Language (Wales) Measure 2011 confirms the official status of the Welsh language in Wales and creates a new legislative framework for the Welsh language. The Measure makes a number of provisions in respect of the language, including:
Creating a new system of placing duties on bodies to provide services through the medium of Welsh;
Creating a Welsh Language Commissioner with strong enforcement powers to protect the rights of Welsh speakers to access services through the medium of Welsh; and
Establishes a Welsh Language Tribunal.
1.3.3 Technical Advice Note (TAN) 20: Planning and the Welsh Language (October 2017) provides guidance on how the planning system considers the implications of the Welsh language when Local Development Plans (LDPs) are prepared. At paragraph 2.1.5 it sets out that; “When producing LDPs it is possible to assess the potential cumulative effects of development on the Welsh language across the plan area. This provides an opportunity to consider effects on local communities and the wider plan area together. Furthermore, one of the key benefits of a plan-led system is to give certainty and confidence to developers and to communities; the best way of doing this is to consider the use of the Welsh language during the preparation of LDPs.”
1.3.4 TAN 20 does not set out an explicit expectation for the consideration of impacts on Welsh language as part of the preparation of SPG. However, taking into account the importance of Welsh language to the Island’s communities, the scale and nature of development to which the revised Wylfa Newydd SPG relates and its potential impacts on Welsh language and culture on Anglesey, it is considered appropriate to consider the implications of the implementation of the Wylfa Newydd SPG on the Welsh language.
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1.3.5 In this context, this WLIA is intended to help determine the impact of the Wylfa Newydd SPG on the Welsh language on Anglesey. The WLIA is also an important tool in ensuring that the SPG is compliant with the provisions of the Equality Act 2010 and the requirements of the Wellbeing of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. The assessment has utilised the same approach to that in the WLIA of the Joint Local Development Plan in order to ensure consistency in approach.
Other Assessments 1.3.6 It should be noted that the WLIA of the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG was undertaken alongside a number of other assessments. Those of particular relevance to Welsh language include the Equality Impact Assessment and Sustainability Appraisal (SA).
1.3.7 The duty to undertake an Equality Impact Assessment arises from the Race Relations (Amendment) Act 2000, the Disability Discrimination Act 2005, and the Equality Act 2010. The Equality Impact Assessment should consider effects with respect to all members of the community whatever their race, age, disability, gender, sexual orientation, and religion or beliefs thus helping to ensure social inclusion and community cohesion. In this context, the Equality Impact Assessment of the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG has also considered the potential impacts on Welsh language.
1.3.8 SA is a means of ensuring that the likely social, economic and environmental effects of a plan or programme are identified, described and assessed. SA also incorporates a process set out under a European Directive called Strategic Environment Assessment (SEA) which requires the assessment of the effects of certain plans and programmes on the environment. SA was undertaken to support the development of the SPG adopted in 2014. The amendments to the adopted SPG have been screened to determine whether the revised SPG should be subject to SEA and the County Council has determined that, as the revisions would not result in significant adverse environmental effects, the revised SPG does not require additional SEA. This was confirmed by Natural Resources Wales.
1.3.9 The findings of the Equality Impact Assessment, together with this WLIA, was reviewed by the County Council in developing the final SPG with a view to ensuring that the implementation of the guidance will not have an adverse impact on equality and, where appropriate, benefits are maximised.
1.4 Report Structure
1.4.1 The remainder of this report is structured as follows:
Section 2: The Wylfa Newydd SPG – Summarises the content of the Wylfa Newydd SPG that is the subject of the WLIA;
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Section 3: Methodology – Provides an overview of the approach taken to the assessment of the Wylfa Newydd SPG;
Section 4: National and Local Policy Context - Summarises the planning policy context in respect of Welsh language;
Section 5: Overview of the Welsh Language on Anglesey – Presents the baseline information that has been used to inform the assessment;
Section 6: Impact Assessment– Presents the assessment of the anticipated impacts of the Wylfa Newydd SPG on Welsh language in Anglesey; and
Section 7: Monitoring and Next Steps - Presents views on implementation and monitoring and outlines the next steps in the preparation of the Wylfa Newydd SPG and the WLIA process.
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2. The Wylfa Newydd SPG
2.1 Introduction
2.1.1 This section of the report provides an overview of the Wylfa Newydd SPG that is the subject of the WLIA. It summarises, in-turn, the main components of the document as listed in Section 1.2, namely:
The vision and associated objectives for the Wylfa Newydd project and SPG;
Project-wide guidance; and
Broad locational guidance.
2.2 Vision and Objectives
2.2.1 The construction and operation of the Wylfa Newydd Project are substantial activities with the potential to deliver investment and wider benefits to the Island and its communities. However, development of the scale envisaged could also generate adverse socio-economic and environmental effects. In response, the County Council has developed a vision for the Wylfa Newydd Project. This vision sets out the County Council’s aspirations for the project, which are underpinned by a set of objectives outlining how this vision is to be delivered.
Vision 2.2.2 The County Council’s vision for the Wylfa Newydd project aligns with its wider socio-economic and legacy aspirations in relation to all major developments on the Island. The vision is:
The New Nuclear Build at Wylfa is a positive driver for the transformation of the economy and communities on Anglesey, providing sustainable employment opportunities, improving the quality of life for existing and future generations and enhancing local identity and distinctiveness.
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Objectives 2.2.3 The County Council expects that the vision outlined above will be achieved through the following seven objectives:
1. To ensure that the Wylfa Newydd project contributes to the delivery of the Anglesey Energy Island Programme, and the Anglesey Enterprise Zone, placing the Island at the forefront of energy research and development, production and servicing;
2. To ensure that the Wylfa Newydd project drives the transformation of the Anglesey and North Wales economies and maximises opportunities for the employment and up-skilling of local people;
3. To ensure that the Wylfa Newydd project delivers significant and enduring infrastructure benefits to the Island’s communities;
4. To ensure that the Wylfa Newydd project supports improvements to the quality of life (including, health, housing, well-being and amenity) of the Island’s residents, visitors and workers during its construction and operation;
5. To ensure that the Wylfa Newydd project recognises and strengthens the unique identity of the Island and its communities;
6. To ensure that the Wylfa Newydd project promotes the sustainable movement of people and materials and provides resilient transportation infrastructure capable of attracting and sustaining economic growth and creating sustainable communities; and
7. To ensure that the Wylfa Newydd project conserves and enhances the Island’s distinctive environment and resources, taking into account climate change.
2.3 Project-Wide Guidance
2.3.1 Project-wide guidance broadly seeks to avoid, or minimise, adverse effects and enhance benefits associated with the Wylfa Newydd project. The guidance is set out as a series of ‘Guiding Principles’ (GPs) which together seek to support the delivery of the vision and objectives set out in Section 2.2 above.
Table 2.1 lists the project-wide guidance by topic.
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Table 2.1 Wylfa Newydd SPG Project-Wide Guidance
Topic Guiding Principle(s) Economic Development GP 1: Supporting the Anglesey Energy Island Programme and Anglesey Enterprise Zone GP 2: Local Job Creation and Skills Development GP 3: Supporting Employment, Logistics and Transport Uses GP 4: Supporting the Local Supply Chain and Service Businesses
Tourism GP 5: Supporting the Visitor Economy
Population and GP 6: Maintaining and Enhancing Community Facilities and Community Services GP 7: Protecting Health GP 8: Promoting Healthy Lifestyles GP 9a: Maintaining and Creating Cohesive Communities GP 9b: Maintaining and Creating Cohesive Communities – Campus Style Temporary Accommodation for Construction Workers
Construction Worker GP 10a: Permanent Housing Accommodation and GP 10b: Campus Style Temporary Construction Worker Anglesey’s Housing Market Accommodation GP 11: Latent Supply GP 12: Tourism Accommodation GP 13a: New Caravan or Other Forms of Non-permanent Accommodation Sites for Temporary Residential Use GP13b: Use of Existing Holiday Caravans or Other Form of Non-Permanent Accommodation Welsh Language and GP 14: Maintaining and Strengthening Welsh Language and Culture Culture
Transport GP 15: Transport Utilities GP 16: Utilities Provision Waste GP 17: Managing Waste Sustainably GP 18: Nuclear Waste Storage Facilities
Climate Change GP 19: Mitigating Climate Change GP 20: Adapting to Climate Change
Natural Environment GP 21: Conserving and Enhancing the Natural Environment GP 22: Conserving the Water Environment
Historic Environment GP 23: Conserving and Enhancing the Historic Environment
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Topic Guiding Principle(s) Facilitating Development GP 24: Planning Obligations GP 25: Use of Council Powers
Implementation and GP 26: Implementation and Monitoring Monitoring
2.4 Broad Locational Guidance
2.4.1 Alongside the project-wide guidance, the Wylfa Newydd SPG sets out the County Council’s key development principles in relation to the construction and operation of a new nuclear power station at the main Newydd site at Wylfa. It also provides locational guidance that is designed to help inform and guide proposals for off-site associated development, in accordance with the County Council’s spatial strategy for future growth on Anglesey set out in the JLDP.
2.4.2 To guide the broad location of associated development, the following seven areas of search (AoS) have been identified:
North Anglesey:
o Main Wylfa Newydd Site;
o Amlwch and Environs;
o Cemaes and Environs; and
o A5025 Corridor.
Rest of Anglesey:
o Holyhead and Environs;
o Llangefni and Environs;
o A55/A5 Corridor; and
o Anglesey Coast and Rural Hinterland.
2.4.3 The AoS are shown in Figure 2.1 together with the main Newydd site (as defined in NPS EN 6).
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Figure 2.1 Wylfa Newydd Main Site and SPG Areas of Search
2.4.4 The AoS identified in Figure 2.1 above correspond to the following locational guidance:
GP 27: North Anglesey – Key Development Principles;
GP 28a: Wylfa Newydd Main Site – Key Development Principles;
GP 28b: Wylfa Newydd Main Site Campus Style Temporary Construction Worker Accommodation – Key Development Principles;
GP 29: Amlwch and Environs;
GP 30: Cemaes and Environs;
GP 31: A5025 Corridor;
GP 32: The Rest of Anglesey – Key Development Principles;
GP 33: Holyhead and Environs;
GP 34: Llangefni and Environs;
GP 35: A55/A5 Corridor; and
GP 36: Coast and Rural Hinterland.
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2.5 Applying WLIA to the Wylfa Newydd SPG
2.5.1 Following a review of the scope and content of the Wylfa Newydd SPG, this WLIA has considered the following document components:
Vision and Objectives;
Project-wide guidance; and
Broad locational guidance.
2.5.2 The findings of the WLIA are documented in Section 6 of this report.
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3. Methodology
3.1 Introduction
3.1.1 This section outlines the approach to the WLIA of the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG. It has drawn on that adopted in the assessment of the Joint Local Development Plan (JLDP) in order to ensure that a consistent approach to the assessment of the Welsh language impacts of County Council planning policy and guidance is being applied. The WLIA of the draft SPG has comprised the following key stages:
Stage 1: Review of relevant plans and programmes;
Stage 2: Collation and analysis of baseline data; and
Stage 3: Assessment of the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG.
3.1.2 Each stage is discussed in-turn in the sections that follow together with the technical difficulties encountered during the assessment.
3.2 Review of Relevant Plans and Programmes
3.2.1 Prior to undertaking the assessment, it was important to review national and local policy guidance in respect of the Welsh language. This review focused on:
Relevant NPSs;
National (Wales) planning and Welsh language policy; and
Local (Anglesey) planning policy and guidance.
3.2.2 The review, which is presented in Section 4, sought to identify the key policy messages relevant to the WLIA of the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG. This information was subsequently used to inform the assessment of the draft document.
3.3 Collation and Analysis of Baseline Data
3.3.1 In order to fully assess the language impact of the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG, it was important to understand the nature of Welsh language use in the communities of Anglesey. Baseline data on the Welsh language was therefore collated and analysed. This data is presented in Section 5 (alongside Appendices A to C).
3.3.2 Based on the findings of the baseline analysis, a number of key issues pertinent to the Wylfa Newydd SPG were identified which informed the subsequent analysis of the
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draft document. This has helped to ensure that the assessment findings are based on robust, informed and accurate baseline data.
3.3.3 Data on a range of variables that are considered important in terms of influencing the use of the Welsh language (for example, economic activity and health), were also collated and used to inform the assessment. This is presented in the assessment section of this report (see Section 6).
3.4 Assessment of the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG
3.4.1 As noted in Section 2.5, the WLIA has appraised the following components of the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG:
Vision and Objectives;
Project-wide guidance; and
Broad locational guidance.
3.4.2 Consideration has been given to the most appropriate methodology to undertake the WLIA. TAN 20 (2017) provides guidance on how the Welsh language may be given appropriate consideration in the planning system and on compliance with the requirements of planning and other relevant legislation. More specifically, TAN 20 provides guidance on how local authorities should meet their requirement to assess the effect of their local plans, as opposed to SPGs, on the Welsh Language as a part of a SA under Section 62 of the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 (as amended by the Planning (Wales) Act 2015). TAN 20 is not, therefore directly applicable to the assessment of the Wylfa Newydd SPG.
3.4.3 Whilst TAN 20 is not directly applicable, an SA was undertaken for the Wylfa Newydd SPG in 2014, which included an assessment of the effects of the plan on the Welsh language under objective 4 of the SA. The objective was:
‘To conserve, promote and enhance the Welsh Language’
3.4.4 As a part of updating the Wylfa Newydd SPG it has been screened under the Environmental Assessment of Plans and Programmes (Wales) Regulations (2004) to identify whether and SEA, and in turn an updated SA, is required. The screening was subject to statutory consultation with Natural Resources Wales. The exercise identified that an SEA is not required because, among other reasons, it was considered by Natural Resources Wales that amendments to the SPG would not add new impacts not already assessed, nor would there be additional options for consideration in SEA. It was therefore considered unlikely that an additional SEA would appraise any new information and therefore reach any different conclusions.
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As such, the approach to assessment set out in TAN 20 was broadly followed as a part the SA and it is not necessary to undertake an SA of the amended Wylfa Newydd SPG.
3.4.5 The WLIA assessment presented here is a stand-alone assessment in recognition of the importance of the Welsh language to the Isle of Anglesey. The assessment has been undertaken in accordance with the 18 questions contained in Appendix C of “Planning and the Welsh Language: The Way Ahead (2005)”, which were also used to undertake the WLIA of the Joint Local Development Plan. The assessment questions are listed in Box 3.1.
3.4.6 Consideration has also been given to Anglesey County Council’s SPG on planning and the Welsh language. Central to the methodology of the SPG is completion of the ‘Checklist Questions on Community and Language Impacts’. These questions are aligned with the 18 questions contained in Appendix C of “Planning and the Welsh Language: The Way Ahead (2005)”, however they have been slightly amended to be suitable for use in support of planning applications. As such, this application-focused approach has not been specifically followed, but the information provided in this WLIA is in line with the requirements of the SPG.
Box 3.1: Assessment Questions
1. Is the SPG likely to lead to a population increase/decrease that might i) affect the balance of English / Welsh speakers or ii) lead to a decline in the number of Welsh speakers? 2. Is the SPG likely to lead to increased in-migration? 3. Is the SPG likely to lead to increased out-migration? 4. Is the process of out-migration likely to result in a loss of Welsh speaking households? Is the policy / plan / programme / project likely to lead to a changing age structure of the community? 5. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on the health of local people? 6. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on the amenity of the local area? 7. Is the SPG likely to lead to the threat of increased crime or violence in the community? 8. Is the SPG likely to have a detrimental impact on local businesses? 9. Is the SPG likely to have a detrimental impact on local jobs? 10. Is the SPG likely to lead to greater economic diversity? 11. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on local wage/salary levels? 12. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on the average cost of housing? 13. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on local schools?
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14. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on health care provision? 15. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on the provision of local services? 16. Will the SPG potentially lead to social tensions, conflict or serious divisions within the Welsh speaking community? 17. Will the SPG potentially lead to changes in local Welsh traditions / culture? 18. Is the SPG likely to have a potential impact on local voluntary / activity / youth groups?
3.4.7 The findings of the assessment of the draft SPG are presented in Section 6. For each question, background/contextual information is provided together with a summary of baseline conditions. An assessment of the document’s impact on the Welsh language is then provided prior to consideration of the implications for the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG. For each question, the assessment awarded a score to reflect the potential impacts of the draft SPG, based on the following:
Positive impact;
Neutral impact;
Negative impact; and
Uncertain impact.
3.4.8 Where appropriate, mitigation measures were identified to address any potential adverse impacts of the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG on Welsh language and enhance positive impacts.
3.5 Technical Difficulties
3.5.1 Undertaking a WLIA of a SPG can be problematic because of the lack of specific details contained in the document. Allied to this, reflecting the scope of the SPG, the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG does not set out the quantum of Wylfa Newydd-related development to be accommodated across the Island nor does it allocate specific sites.
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4. National and Local Policy Context for the Welsh Language
4.1 Introduction
4.1.1 This section of the report provides a high level summary of the key UK wide national policy statements, followed by national and local policies as they relate to the Welsh language. The objectives of the plans and programmes identified in this section have been used to inform the assessment of the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG contained in Section 6.
4.2 UK wide National Policy Statements
Overarching National Policy Statement for Energy EN-1 (2011) 4.2.1 This National Policy Statement (NPS) sets out the criteria by which applications for nationally significant energy infrastructure projects including the Newydd at Wylfa will be determined and the recommended focus of analysis of the accompanying Environmental Statement. The NPS requires (at para 5.12.3) that Environmental Statements should consider:
“all relevant socio-economic impacts, which may include:
The creation of jobs and training opportunities;
The provision of additional local services and improvements to local infrastructure, including the provision of educational and visitor facilities;
Effects on tourism;
The impact of a changing influx of workers during the different construction, operation and decommissioning phases of the energy infrastructure. This could change the local population dynamics and could alter the demand for services and facilities in the settlements nearest to the construction work (including community facilities and physical infrastructure such as energy, water, transport and waste). There could also be effects on social cohesion depending on how populations and service provision change as a result of the development; and
Cumulative effects – if development consent were to be granted for a number of projects within a region and these were developed in a similar timeframe, there could be some short-term negative effects, for example a potential shortage of construction workers to meet the needs of other industries and major projects within the region.”
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National Policy Statement for Nuclear Power Generation (EN-6) (2011) 4.2.2 With specific regard to the Newydd at Wylfa, Volume II of the NPS highlights that concerns have been expressed with respect to impacts of the influx of workers into the area on language, culture and welfare.
4.3 National Policy and Guidance
The Wales Spatial Plan (Update, 2008) 4.3.1 The Wales Spatial Plan provides a framework for directing development and policy interventions in Wales for the future. Anglesey is part of the North-West Wales Area named ‘Eryri a Môn’ in the spatial plan. The vision for the North-West Wales Area highlights the importance of the Welsh language:
“A high-quality natural and physical environment supporting a cultural and knowledge-based economy that will help the area to maintain and enhance its distinctive character, retain and attract back young people and sustain the Welsh language”.
4.3.2 It is therefore noted that the strong sense of place is evident across North-West Wales in terms of the landscape and the high number of Welsh language communities. Nevertheless, the Plan highlights that this cultural identity faces a challenge of global cultural pressure and demographic change, especially as sense of place is one of the main factors that makes the Area desirable to visitors and to people who move there on a permanent basis. Therefore, the challenge is to retain and improve the sense of place and proceed at the same time with the necessary change to sustain employment and services thereby supporting local communities.
The Welsh Language (Wales) Measure 2011 4.3.3 The Welsh Language (Wales) Measure 2011 made provision for the official status of the Welsh language in Wales and created a new legislative framework for the Welsh language. The Measure introduced Welsh Language Standards, which specify how the language should be used by public organisations in service delivery, operations and policy making.
A Living Language: A Language for Living – Welsh Language Strategy 2012-2017 (2012) 4.3.4 The national Welsh Language Strategy comprises the Welsh Government’s strategic direction for developing the language across Wales.
4.3.5 The Strategy sets out a vision “to see the Welsh language thriving in Wales. The Welsh Government will take the lead on delivering that vision. We will work with a wide range of
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partners who will play a full part in ensuring that it is realised”. This vision is underpinned by the following aims:
An increase in the number of people who both speak and use the language;
More opportunities for people to use Welsh;
An increase in people’s confidence and fluency in the language;
An increase in people’s awareness of the value of Welsh, both as part of our national heritage and as a useful skill in modern life;
The strengthening of the position of the Welsh language in our communities; and
Strong representation of the Welsh language throughout the digital media.
4.3.6 The Strategy provides guidance on implementing measures to enable and encourage people to acquire the language and to use the language and focuses efforts in six strategic areas: the family, children and young people, the community, the workplace, Welsh-language services and infrastructure.
The Wellbeing of Future Generation (Wales) Act 2015 4.3.7 The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 seeks to improve the social, economic, environmental and cultural well-being of Wales. It contains seven well- being goals which certain public bodies (including local authorities and National Park authorities) must seek to achieve in order to improve well-being both now and in the future. One of the well-being goals is: A Wales of vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language. This well-being goal will be achieved through “a society that promotes and protects culture, heritage and the Welsh language, and which encourages people to participate in the arts, and sports and recreation”.
Planning Policy Wales (Edition 9 2016) 4.3.8 Planning Policy Wales (PPW) sets out the land use planning policies of the Welsh Government. Section 4.13 deals explicitly with the Welsh language and states:
“Local planning authorities must consider the likely effects of their development plans on the use of the Welsh language in the Sustainability Appraisal of their plans, and should keep their evidence up to date. All local planning authorities should include in the reasoned justifications to their development plans a statement on how they have taken the needs and interests of the Welsh language into account in plan preparation, and how any policies relating to the Welsh language interact with other plan policies .”
4.3.9 Additionally, Section 4.13 states that planning authorities should consider the capacity of areas in terms of Welsh language when considering growth options and
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where possible, the planning system should seek to create conditions which are conducive to the use of the Welsh language.
Technical Advice Note (TAN) 20: Planning and the Welsh Language (2017)
4.3.10 TAN20 provide guidance on how the Welsh language may be given appropriate consideration in the planning system and on compliance with the requirements of planning and other relevant legislation.
4.3.11 The TAN identifies a number of potential measures for mitigating impacts on Welsh language. These include:
Phasing policies complementing the LDP’s housing delivery trajectory;
Providing adequate affordable housing;
Allocating sites for 100% affordable housing for local needs; and
The provision of employment opportunities and social infrastructure to sustain local communities.
4.3.12 To ensure that these mitigation measures are applied, TAN 20 notes that the Community Infrastructure Levy or Section 106 agreements may be used where an up to date adopted plan is in place.
4.4 Local Policy and Guidance
Development Plan 4.4.1 The current Development Plan is The Anglesey and Gwynedd Joint Local Development Plan (JLDP) which was adopted by the County Council on 31 July 2017, and replaces the Gwynedd Structure Plan (1993), the Ynys Môn Local Plan (1996) and the Anglesey Unitary Development Plan (stopped 2005). The JLDP includes Strategic Objective SO1, setting out the overarching aim to:
SO1: Safeguard and strengthen the Welsh language and culture and promote its use as an essential part of community life.
4.4.2 The further Strategic Objectives underpinning the JLDP will potentially be relevant to the Welsh language. Specifically, Strategic Objective SO9 refers to the Wylfa Newydd Project and aims to:
SO9: Support and capitalise on the development of the Wylfa Newydd Project and associated development to maximise socio-economic opportunities for local business and sustainable employment opportunities for local people, including
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facilitating a suitable network of Wylfa Newydd Project-related associated development sites while ensuring that adverse effects of the Wylfa Newydd Project on the local communities are appropriately avoided, or mitigated and where appropriate legacy benefits are provided.
4.4.3 Strategic Policy PS1: Welsh Language and Culture sets out the policy approach to ensure the Welsh language is promoted and supported in the plan area. The policy sets out a requirement to provide a Welsh Language Statement, aimed at protecting, promoting and enhancing the Welsh language, where the proposed development falls into one of the relevant categories which are:
Retail, industrial or commercial development employing more than 50 employees and/or with an area of 1,000 sq. m. or more;
Residential development which will individually or cumulatively provide more than the indicative housing provision set out for the settlement in Policies TAI 1 – TAI 6; and
Residential development of 5 or more housing units on allocated or windfall sites within development boundaries that doesn’t address evidence of need and demand for housing recorded in a Housing Market Assessments and other relevant local sources of evidence.
4.4.4 Strategic Policy PS1, also requires a WLIA to be undertaken for unexpected windfall sites for large scale housing or employment development that would lead to a significant workforce flow. Proposals will be refused where they would cause significant harm to the character and language balance of a community that cannot be avoided or suitably mitigated, and bilingual signage will be in place and there is an expectation that Welsh names are used for new developments.
4.4.5 Strategic Policy PS 10, which relates specifically to the Wylfa Newydd project, sets out that the requirements of construction workers should be met in a way that minimises impact on the Welsh language.
Supplementary Planning Guidance: Planning and the Welsh Language (2007) 4.4.6 This SPG provides advice on important issues relating to planning and the Welsh language. It provides guidance on how the County Council will take into account the wellbeing of the Welsh language in the development management process and the supporting information that may be required to allow an adequate assessment of individual planning applications.
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Isle of Anglesey and Gwynedd Single Integrated Plan (2013-2017)
4.4.7 The Isle of Anglesey and Gwynedd Single Integrated Plan (SIP) incorporates the vision and action plan of the joint Local Services Board for both counties. The Board is responsible for setting the ambition and strategic direction for the SIP and for the collaborative work within the area; it consists of leaders from various public, private and third sector organisations. The SIP focuses attention on improving the quality of life of local people and communities by enhancing economic, social and environmental well-being through:
Ensuring that reducing public service resources are used for the greatest benefit;
Helping individuals and communities to become strong and resilient and increasingly less dependent on public services;
Improving economic performance and skills to create / maintain jobs, emphasising lifelong learning opportunities, in particular the EIP;
Enabling communities and individuals to maintain and develop their independence;
Ensuring that opportunities are available for young people;
Reducing poverty and providing effective services that meet the needs of vulnerable groups;
Promoting and sustaining our environment; and
Promoting and maintaining our rich culture including the Welsh language.
4.4.8 The Plan identifies the potential for the Energy Island Programme to have an effect on the Welsh language within communities. The Plan seeks to increase the number of Welsh speakers, use of the Welsh language and visits to places of historical interest.
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4.5 Summary
4.5.1 Box 4.1 identifies the key policy messages in respect of the Welsh language from the review of relevant plans and programmes.
Box 4.1: Summary of Key Policy Messages The future well-being of the Welsh language depends on a number of factors, in particular: education, demographic changes, community activities and economic development; Consideration needs to be given to the capacity of different communities to accommodate Newydd-related development, especially construction worker accommodation; It must be ensured that the guidance contained in the Wylfa Newydd SPG does not discriminate between individuals on their linguistic ability; The Wylfa Newydd SPG should ensure that proposals demonstrate in a relevant assessment, where there is any possibility of damage to the well-being of the Welsh language, that the impact can be avoided or alleviated; There is a need to appreciate, promote and strengthen the Welsh language and culture and embrace the diversity in society through the guidance contained in the Wylfa Newydd SPG.
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5 Overview of the Welsh Language on Anglesey
5.1 Introduction
5.1.1 This section summarises the baseline information collated and analysed relating to the use of the Welsh language on Anglesey as a precursor to the assessment of the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG (see Section 6). More detailed baseline data is presented at Appendix A, Appendix B and Appendix C.
5.2 Welsh Language Skills
5.2.1 The 2011 Census showed that 57.2% of the people on Anglesey spoke Welsh which is nearly three times the average across Wales (19.2%) (see Table 5.1). For this reason, Anglesey (like Gwynedd and parts of Conwy) is considered to be one of the Welsh language’s main strongholds in North Wales, and Wales overall.
Table 5.1 Skills in Welsh Language (2011) Population Speaks Speaks Speaks, Other No Aged 3 but does and reads reads and combination knowledge and over not read but does writes of skills of Welsh or write not write Welsh Welsh Welsh % % % % % Anglesey 67, 403 7 4.3 45.6 1.9 30.4 Wales 2, 955, 841 2.7 1.5 14.6 2.5 73.3
Source: StatsWales
5.2.2 Figure 5.1 illustrates the high percentage of Welsh speakers living on the Island compared to other Welsh local authorities.
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Figure 5.1 Proportion of people aged 3 and over able to speak Welsh by local authority, 2011
5.3 Distribution of Welsh Speakers
5.3.1 The proportion of Welsh speakers varies within Anglesey itself. The highest proportions of Welsh speakers are to be found in the more rural central areas of
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Anglesey, whilst the proportion of Welsh speakers tends to be lower towards the west of the Island and in particular around the Holyhead area (see Figure 5.2).
Figure 5.2 Distribution of Welsh Speakers (2011)
5.3.2 Appendix B provides further detail in respect of Welsh language skills across Anglesey (by electoral division).
5.4 Change in Welsh Language Skills
5.4.1 The number of Welsh speakers in Anglesey decreased over the period 2001 to 2011 by 2.9%, greater than the decrease at the national level (1.7%). Figure 5.3 shows
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the change in the proportion of people able to speak Welsh by local authority over the same period.
Figure 5.3 Change in proportion of residents able to speak Welsh by local authority, 2001 to 2011
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5.4.2 Figure 5.4 compares the changes seen within individual communities on the Island between 2001 and 2011. They highlight the following trends:
The greatest fall, of 13.4%, was in the ward of Rhosneigr although this is a small community and therefore a small change in numbers can have a major impact on the percentages;
Only five of the 40 wards saw an increase in the proportion of Welsh speakers. Cwm Cadnant saw the greatest increase of 3.44%;
A further three wards (Llangoed, Brynteg and Cadnant) fell to under 50% of Welsh speakers, which means that there are now 13 wards in this category;
In 2011, there were eight wards on the Island with over 70% of Welsh speakers in them. The majority of these are communities in the centre of the Island; and
On average, there was a decline of 1.5% in the number of Welsh speakers on the Island between 2001 and 2011.
Figure 5.4 Change in % of Welsh speakers in Anglesey wards from 2001 to 2011
5.4.3 Linguistic experts, among them Professor Harold Carter3, have noted that a threshold of 80% of any language is essential in order to secure sustainability and a
3 Editor of the National Atlas of Wales and publisher of books on Welsh language data.
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future for that language because any threshold beneath this level is insufficient to ensure the ‘critical mass’ of speaker necessary to support it. In 2011, three wards (out of a total of 40) on Anglesey achieved this criterion.
5.4.4 Conversely, linguistic experts have concluded that deterioration is very likely in communities where a minimum of 25% or less of the community speaks Welsh. In such a situation, it would no longer be a community language, although spoken by some individuals occasionally. No areas fell within this category. The lowest was Rhosneigr at 36% (see Appendix B).
5.5 Age and the Welsh Language
5.5.1 Figure 5.5 distributes the resident population by age and on the basis of their declared level of Welsh language skills. There is a marked difference in Welsh language ability according to age, with younger people demonstrating the strongest skillset and the elder groups the lowest. This observation may reflect Welsh education policies in schools which has established Welsh as a mandatory subject for pupils aged 5-16 in Wales (apart from some exempt schools).
Figure 5.5 Welsh language skills by age group
Source: 2011 Census
5.6 Demographic Change and the Welsh Language
5.6.1 There is substantial variation in the proportion of in-migrants who do not speak Welsh into different areas. Figure 5.6 shows those wards that are within the lower quartile in terms of the proportion of the population that speaks Welsh as well as being in the upper quartile in terms of the proportion being migrants. Wards with the lowest percentage of Welsh speakers and highest percentage of in-migrants include Beaumaris and some wards in Holyhead and the vicinity.
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Figure 5.6 Wards in Anglesey that are within the lower quartile in terms of the proportion of the population that speaks Welsh as well as being in the upper quartile in terms of the proportion being migrants
Source: Anglesey and Gwynedd Joint Local Development Plan Topic Paper 10: Welsh Language and Culture
5.6.2 Table 5.2 identifies the change in age demographic for residents in Anglesey from 2011 to 2016. Key trends to note are the increase in the 65+ age group and the decline in economically active age groups, most notably those aged 30-444.
4 Welsh Government (2016) Age distribution by gender and year. Available online: https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Population-and- Migration/Population/Distributions/agedistributionofpopulation-by-gender-year
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Table 5.2 Age and distribution of population by gender and year Mid- Mid- Mid- Mid- Mid- Mid- year year year year year year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
All ages 100 100 100 100 100 100
Aged All 0 to Persons 15.9 16 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.2 ages 14
Persons Male 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.8
Female 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.4 15.6
Aged 15 Persons 16.2 16.1 16.1 15.9 15.7 15.4 to 29
Persons Male 17.1 16.8 16.8 16.6 16.5 16.3
Female 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.2 15 14.5
Aged 30 Persons 17.2 16.9 16.6 16.2 16 15.5 to 44
Persons Male 17.5 17.2 16.9 16.7 16.3 15.7
Female 16.9 16.6 16.2 15.8 15.7 15.4
Aged 45 Persons 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.7 to 64
Persons Male 28.2 28 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.7
Female 28.1 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7
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Aged 65 Persons 12.3 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.2 to 74
Persons Male 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.3 13.7 14
Female 12.3 13 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.3
Aged over Persons 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 11 75
Persons Male 8.2 8.5 8.7 9 9.2 9.5
Female 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.5
Source: StatsWales
5.6.3 2014-based projections to 2039 indicate a long term decline in population. This overall figure masks some variation between age groups, with aged 65 and over expected to increase from 16,693 to 22,530. Those aged under 15 are expected to remain relatively static, with a long term decline, rising from 12,065 to a peak of 12,555 in 2023 before declining to 11,393 in 2039. The working age population of 16 to 64 year olds are expected to undergo a continuous decline from 41,141 in 2014 to 34,426 in 20395 (see Figure 5.6).
5 Welsh Government (2016) Population projections by local authority and year. Available online: https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Population-and-Migration/Population/Projections/Local-Authority/2014- based
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Figure 5.6 Population Change to 2039
Isle of Anglesey 70,500
70,000
69,500
69,000
68,500 Population 68,000
67,500
67,000
2023 2039 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 Year
Source: StatsWales
5.6.4 It can be assumed that many of the younger people who migrate out of Anglesey possess Welsh language skills, given Welsh educational policy. Conversely, older in- migrants are likely to possess fewer Welsh language skills (although there is no evidence to confirm this).
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5.7 Summary
5.7.1 Box 5.1 identifies the key issues in respect of Welsh language from the baseline analysis.
Box 5.1: Summary of Key Issues Anglesey has one of the highest proportions of Welsh speakers in Wales; There has been a decline of 4.8% in the percentage of Welsh speakers in Anglesey between 2001 and 2011; Some areas have seen a more dramatic decline in the proportion of Welsh speakers than others. The greatest decrease in Anglesey has been in Rhosneigr (-13.4%); The proportion of Welsh speakers varies between coastal communities popular as retirement centres for inward migration and other communities with over 70% of the population able to speak Welsh; Out-migration from Anglesey is highest within the 0-19 and 20-34 age groups respectively; In Anglesey, the highest proportion of migrants reside in the Holyhead area and in extensive areas of the north eastern parts of the Island.
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6. Impact Assessment
6.1 Introduction
6.1.1 This section of the report presents the findings of the assessment of the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG on the Welsh language. It is structured according to the 18 assessment questions outlined in Box 3.1 (see Section 3) and grouped under the following four thematic headings:
Population;
Quality of Life;
Economy; and
Infrastructure.
6.1.2 For each question, background/contextual information is provided together with a summary of baseline conditions. An assessment of the document’s impact on the Welsh language is then provided prior to consideration of the implications for draft SPG going forward. For each question, the assessment has awarded a score to reflect the potential impacts of the draft SPG, based on the following approach:
Positive impact;
Neutral impact;
Negative impact; and
Uncertain impact.
6.1.3 Where appropriate, mitigation measures have been identified to address any potential adverse impacts of the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG on the Welsh language and enhance positive impacts.
6.2 Population
Q1. Is the SPG likely to lead to a population increase or decrease that might: - Affect the balance of non-Welsh / Welsh speakers in a negative / positive way? - Lead to an absolute or proportional decline in the number of Welsh speakers?
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Background 6.2.1 New development can influence population movement in an area. It may impact positively through stabilising populations or promoting growth through in-migration however, significant levels of migration, in or out, can have an adverse impact on the social balance of an area and as a result, influence key characteristics of a community such as the use of the Welsh language.
Baseline analysis 6.2.2 On the basis of Welsh Government projections6, the population of Anglesey is forecast to peak in during 2017/18/19 at 70,176 ±1, a negligible increase from the 2014 population of 70,169. The population is then forecast to decline to 68,348 by 2039. This represents a total decline over the period 2014 to 2039 of 2.6%.
6.2.3 The population of Anglesey is ageing. The Island is a key attraction for older people wishing to retire, whilst there is an outflow of younger people. As set out in the baseline analysis contained in Section 5, this may serve to reduce the proportion of the Island’s residents with Welsh language skills.
6.2.4 The draft Wylfa Newydd SPG highlights that the proposed Newydd project would lead to an increase in the population of Anglesey as a result of the influx of construction workers and, to a lesser extent, operational workers. Workers from outside the area may not possess Welsh language skills which could have an adverse impact on the Island’s Welsh language and culture. In this regard, construction employment is currently expected to peak at 9,000 jobs7 with around 2,000 expected to be home based8.
Language impact assessment 6.2.5 GP14: Maintaining and Strengthening Welsh Language and Culture clearly sets out that the project promoter should undertake linguistic assessments of proposals. The guidance also identifies a range of mitigation measures to address adverse impact on, and strengthen, the Welsh language and culture. This includes the development of Welsh learning actions plans for non-Welsh speaking members of the project workforce, measures and agreed targets related to the use of the Welsh language in the workplace, the funded provision of specialist Welsh 2nd Language Immersion
6 StatsWales (2016) Population Projections. Available online: https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Population-and-Migration/Population/Projections/Local-Authority/2014- based
7 Wylfa Newydd Project Pre-application Consultation Stage 3 Main Consultation Document, Horizon Nuclear Power 8 Existing residents already living within the Travel to Work Area of Approximately 90 minutes.
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teachers and support for the provision of school places in Welsh medium schools and in pre-school nurseries. This is expected to help ensure that the Wylfa Newydd project does not have an adverse impact on the balance between non-Welsh and Welsh speakers.
6.2.6 GP2: Local Job Creation and Skills Development identifies a range of mechanisms that seek to ensure that the Island’s residents are able to benefit from the employment opportunities presented by the Wylfa Newydd project. Further, the guidance sets out the County Council’s expectation for the on-going training of Newydd workers and their families in respect of the Welsh language. Together with other guidance contained in the SPG that is designed to ensure that the Newydd project does not have an adverse impact on the Island’s communities (for example, guidance in relation to the local housing market), this is expected to help reduce the out- migration of the Island’s existing resident population and particularly young people (many of whom possess Welsh Language skills) and ensure that incoming workers possess some Welsh language skills.
Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG 6.2.7 Overall, the Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a positive impact on Question 1, although positive impacts could be enhanced. More specifically, the SPG could:
Acknowledge that the success of initiatives designed to promote the use of the Welsh language needs the full support of non-Welsh speakers. The role of Welsh culture induction courses and short training programmes to raise the awareness of non-Welsh speakers about the language should enhance the entire workforce’s understanding on the unique social fabric of the Island.
Q2. Is the SPG likely to lead to an increase in in-migration: - Might this result in a permanent increase in the proportion of non- Welsh speaking households? - Will the change be permanent or temporary?
Background 6.2.8 Migration patterns are a key component of population change and a largely determined by economic conditions.
Baseline analysis 6.2.9 According to internal migration statistics provided by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the net difference between people moving in and out of Anglesey during the period 2002-2012 has been marginally positive, meaning more people
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moving in than out. Interestingly, however, this trend has reversed notably in the last two years of the dataset (see Table 6.1).
Table 6.1 Number of people in-migrating and out-migrating, 2003-2016.
2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 - 2014 - 2015 -
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Net 220 400 230 150 80 -20 -10 -60 70 50 10 -110 -190 migration Inward 2390 2410 2310 2440 2180 2270 2310 2220 2330 2360 2380 2270 2200 migration Outward 2160 2020 2080 2280 2100 2290 2320 2280 2250 2310 2370 2380 2390 migration Source: Stats Wales
6.2.10 Migration figures for Anglesey show that for the period 2015 to 2016 a net migration outward for those aged from 0-44, compared to a net inward migration for those aged 45 and over.. This concurs with other demographic trends that show Anglesey as a popular location for retirement9.
6.2.11 Table 6.2 shows that 34.6% of the Island’s population were born outside Wales as at the 2011 Census. As expected, the Welsh language skills of people born outside Wales are very weak compared to the population born in Wales. Unless mitigation steps are taken, net in-migration may therefore weaken the use of the Welsh language on the Island.
Table 6.2 Welsh language skills on Anglesey based on place of birth, 2011 All categories: Country of Not born in Welsh Language Skills Birth Born in Wales Wales All categories: Welsh language skills 67, 403 44, 088 23, 315 No skills in Welsh 20, 524 4, 333 16, 191 Can understand spoken Welsh only 7, 215 4, 601 2, 614 Can speak Welsh: Total 38, 568 34, 465 4, 103 Can speak but cannot read or write Welsh 4, 726 3, 909 817 Can speak and read bur cannot write Welsh 2, 905 2, 395 510 Can speak, read and write Welsh 30, 756 28, 012 2, 744
9 Welsh Government (2016) Population and Migration. Available online: https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Population-and-Migration
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Can speak and other combinations of skills in Welsh 181 149 32 Other combinations of skills in Welsh 1, 096 689 407 Source: Census 2011
6.2.12 As noted above, the proposed Wylfa Newydd project would result in an influx of construction workers and, to a lesser extent, operational workers. It is expected that a large majority of the workers during the construction phase will be non-Welsh speakers, which will therefore reduce the proportion of Welsh language speakers residing on the Island. The impact at its most intense is expected to be temporary, however mitigation action will be required to ensure that there is no residual long- term negative impact on the Welsh language in the Island’s communities.
Language impact assessment
6.2.13 The Wylfa Newydd SPG recognises that there will be a substantial increase in in- migration as a result of the Newydd project and it makes a strong statement of intent about the need to conserve the Island’s distinctive culture which includes, at its heart, the Welsh language. The guidance includes a range of direct and indirect measures through the guiding principles (GPs) that broadly seek to ensure that adverse impacts on Welsh language are avoided. Further, locational guidance seeks to direct associated development including construction worker accommodation towards the Island’s larger settlements where the linguistic capacity to accommodate growth is considered to be greater (relative to the Island’s smaller settlements and rural areas).
6.2.14 Notwithstanding the above mitigation measures, however, the SPG’s emphasis on the promotion of inward investment associated with the Wylfa Newydd project (and as part of the wider Energy Island Programme) may result in an increased rate of in- migration which could have an adverse impact on the Welsh language.
Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG
6.2.15 Overall, the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a mixed positive and negative impact in respect of in-migration. The SPG could be enhanced by:
Stipulating the need for the project promoter to prepare, adopt and implement a Welsh language policy, in liaison with the County Council.
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Q3. Is the SPG likely to lead to out-migration? - Is the process of out-migration likely to result in a loss of Welsh- speaking households? - Will any changes be permanent or temporary?
Background
6.2.16 Out-migration is often linked to economic trends. Anglesey has seen a steady net out-migration of young people between 16-24 years old over the last decade, largely due to young people moving away to study and, secondly, due to limited employment and career opportunities on the Island.
Baseline analysis
6.2.17 The same baseline analysis as for Q2 is applicable.
Language impact assessment
6.2.18 The Wylfa Newydd SPG places strong emphasis on delivering benefits associated with the Newydd project to the Island’s communities. Importantly (given the baseline analysis presented above), the SPG contains a number of GPs which encourage the project promoter to maximise local economic benefits. In particular, GP2: Local Job Creation and Skills Development sets out that the County Council will expect the project promoter to prepare and implement an Employment and Skills Strategy designed to, inter-alia, provide jobs and training opportunities for local residents including young people. This should increase employment opportunities for local people and help to retain a greater proportion of the working age population on the Island, reducing the out-migration of local Welsh speakers.
6.2.19 More broadly, by minimising the impacts of the Newydd project (e.g. on the local housing market), and maximising benefits to the Island’s communities and environment, the SPG is expected to help reduce the out-migration of the Island’s existing resident population.
Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG
6.2.20 The Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a positive impact on reducing out- migration.
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Q4. Is the SPG likely to lead to a changing age structure of the community? Will it lead to young / middle-aged / older Welsh speaking people leaving / moving into the area leading to: - Changes in traditional activity patterns, resulting in an increasing desire to move away? - Social tensions / break-up of traditional social networks?
Background
6.2.21 Any major development has the potential to influence the structure of a population in any given area. The type and scale of a development may mean a particular age group is more or less likely to migrate in to, or out of, an area. Large scale development in particular can also lead to social tensions as a result of, for example, the influx of new residents.
Baseline analysis
6.2.22 The proportion of the Island’s population in the 45 to 64 age category is currently the largest proportion of the overall population, with those aged 65 to 74 and 75 and over the two smallest age groups (see Table 6.3). Compared to 2001, those aged 30 to 44 have declined by 3.6%, the largest drop. Those aged 65 to 74 and 75 and over have both seen an approximately 4% increase.
Table 6.3 Anglesey population by age and gender.
Mid-Year 2001 Mid-Year 2016 Isle of Anglesey (%) (%) Aged 0 to 14 Persons 18.3 16.2 Persons Male 19.4 16.8
Female 17.2 15.6 Aged 15 to 29 Persons 16 15.4 Persons Male 16.5 16.3
Female 15.5 14.5 Aged 30 to 44 Persons 19.3 15.5 Persons Male 19.6 15.7
Female 19 15.4 Aged 45 to 64 Persons 27.5 27.7 Persons Male 28 27.7
Female 27.1 27.7 Aged 65 to 74 Persons 10.1 14.2 Persons Male 9.8 14
Female 10.4 14.3
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Aged over 75 Persons 8.8 11 Persons Male 6.6 9.5
Female 10.8 12.5 Source: Stats Wales
Language impact assessment
6.2.24 Given the Island’s ageing population, it is considered that the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG’s focus on promoting and creating the right conditions for improving the opportunities for young people to stay and develop a career on Anglesey is likely to have a positive impact on this aspect of the assessment. Moreover, as noted above, the emphasis of the draft SPG on avoiding adverse impacts on the Island’s communities, and in particular in respect of the local housing market (see, for example, the provisions contained in GP10a: Construction Worker Accommodation and Anglesey’s Housing Market) may help to retain young people.
6.2.25 GP9a: Maintaining and Creative Cohesive Communities relates specifically to community cohesion and should reduce the potential for social tensions to occur as a result of the relatively large construction worker population in particular. It sets out that the County Council will expect the project promoter to:
Avoid large concentrations of construction worker accommodation unless socio- economic benefits can be delivered to the host community;
Take full account of the potential impacts on Welsh language and culture;
Incorporate high standards of design which reduce crime, antisocial behaviour and the fear of crime whilst protecting and enhancing the Island’s built and natural environment;
Be located and designed so as to maximise accessibility for all, including those with disabilities;
Be supported by the preparation and enforcement of a Construction Worker Code of Conduct and Community Safety Management Plans; and
Avoid or mitigate adverse impacts on emergency services provision, (including Police, Ambulance, Fire Brigade and Coastguard).
6.2.26 In addition to the above, the locational guidance contained in the SPG seeks to direct associated development (including construction worker accommodation) towards the Island’s larger settlements where the linguistic capacity to accommodate growth is considered to be greater.
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6.2.27 Taken together, these measures are expected to help alleviate social tensions associated with, in particular, the influx of construction workers related to the Newydd project.
Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG
6.2.28 Overall, the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a positive impact on this question. The SPG could be enhanced by:
Highlighting Welsh-speaking teenagers as a key group for the future of the Welsh language on Anglesey. Guidance could be set out requiring that the project promoter set aside funding for supporting youth services, in particular sport and cultural services for teenagers, with the emphasis on activities undertaken through the medium of the Welsh language.
6.3 Quality of Life
Q5. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on the health of the local people? Will it: - Increase the risk of illness, therefore reducing the desirability to live in the community? - Potentially make life more expensive, therefore increasing the risk of financial problems / stress of the local Welsh speaking population.
Background 6.3.1 People’s health and the community in which they live are directly linked. Health deterioration can be linked to a wide range of determinants including, for example, poor housing stock, inadequate housing space, poor transport links, limited opportunities for physical exercise, lack of open space and a downturn in financial circumstances. If development leads to a reduction in quality of life, community stability may be threatened as those who can afford to move out of an area. In the context of Anglesey, this could have a negative impact on the Welsh language.
Baseline analysis 6.3.2 In 2011, 48% of Anglesey’s residents rated their health as ‘very good’; 30.6% as ‘good’, 15.1% as ‘fair’, 4.9% as ‘bad’ and 1.4% as ‘very bad’ (2011 Census). Additionally, the latest health survey for Wales10 highlights the following key findings for 2012:
10 Welsh Government (2012) Welsh Health Survey. Available online: http://wales.gov.uk/docs/statistics/2013/130911-welsh-health-survey-2012-en.pdf
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20% of adults reported currently being treated for high blood pressure, 14% for a respiratory illness, 12% for arthritis, 11% for a mental illness, 9% for a heart condition, and 7% for diabetes;
34% of adults reported that their day-to-day activities were limited because of a health problem/disability, including 16% who were limited a lot;
Anglesey has a higher cancer rate than the national average (424.2 and 418 per 100,000 respectively, compared to 410 in Wales between 2004 and 2006).
6.3.3 According to the 2011 Census, 7,970 residents had severely limiting long term illnesses or disabilities whilst a further 8,142 people had less severe long term illnesses or disabilities. This equates to nearly a quarter of the population (23.1%) which is similar to the national (Wales) average of 22.8%.
6.3.4 The National Survey for Wales – Adult health and reported illnesses (2016-17)11 identifies the health profile of the Welsh population at the local authority level based on National Survey interviews with adults aged 16+ carried out between April 2016 and March 2017. Key statistics for the Isle of Anglesey, alongside overall statistics for Wales, are identified in Table 6.4.
Table 6.4 Health of adults aged 16+ (observed)
Anglesey Wales Health Status (%) (%)
Health in general - Good or Very 72 Good 76
Health in general - Fair 18 20
Health in general - Bad or Very Bad 6 8
Any longstanding illnesses? 39 67
6.3.5 Table 6.4 identifies that in broad terms, residents of Anglesey are healthier than the Welsh average. This is most noticeable with regardless to longstanding illnesses, where the proportion of residents effected is 38% lower than the Welsh average.
11 Welsh government (2017) The National Survey for Wales – Adult health and reported illnesses (2016-17). Available online: http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/national-survey/?tab=el_home&topic=population_health&lang=en
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The most common illnesses reported for residents of Anglesey were musculoskeletal problems (13%), heart and circulatory complaints (8%) and endocrine and metabolic diseases (7%).
6.3.6 The construction and operation of the Wylfa Newydd project may have a range of direct impacts on health including in respect of increased traffic, air or water pollution, dust, hazardous substances and waste and noise. There may also be a range of indirect impacts including in respect of the provision of health care and open space, sports and recreation facilities.
Language impact assessment 6.3.7 GP7: Protecting Health, requires the project promoter to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the health impacts of the construction and operation of the Newydd and, where appropriate, associated developments. This may help ensure that existing health issues on the Island are not exacerbated. GP8: Promoting Healthy Lifestyles, meanwhile, seeks to ensure that sports and recreational facilities are maintained and enhanced. This could help improve the health of those people with certain longer term illnesses and disabilities (such as forms of mental health disability) and promote the health of the wider population.
6.3.8 More broadly (and reflecting the wider range of health determinants), the avoidance of adverse impacts on the local housing market and the maximisation of economic benefits related to the Newydd project for the Island’s communities, coupled with the conservation and enhancement of the Island’s built and natural environments, may indirectly protect and enhance people’s health.
6.3.9 Guidance contained in the draft SPG also seeks to maintain and enhance physical accessibility to development and infrastructure associated with Newydd project whilst GP15: Transport promotes the enhancement of existing transport infrastructure (including in respect of walking and cycling). This could help avoid adverse impacts on health associated with transport movements and promote walking and cycling.
Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG 6.3.10 The draft Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a positive impact on health.
Q6. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on the amenity of the local area? Could it lead to the deterioration in the quality of the environment and make the area less desirable to live in?
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Background
6.3.11 The balance between Welsh and non-Welsh speakers may be affected if a deterioration takes place in the quality of the built and natural environment or in the existing levels of general amenity (quality of life). Households with greater spending power could decide to out-migrate if this occurred.
Baseline analysis
6.3.12 Anglesey has a rich and varied natural environment. Assets of particular importance include the Anglesey Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB) and Heritage Coast, a large number of European designated nature conservation sites in addition to four National Nature Reserves and 60 Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI). Anglesey also has a rich heritage including a range of designated historic assets.
6.3.13 The construction and operation of the Wylfa Newydd project are significant activities with the potential to generate a wide range of environmental and amenity impacts. Impacts may be direct (for example, the loss of green space) or indirect (e.g. disturbance during construction or operation).
Language impact assessment
6.3.14 GP21: Conserving and Enhancing the Natural Environment, GP22: Conserving the Water Environment and GP23: Conserving and Enhancing the Historic Environment, together with the locational guidance, seek to avoid adverse impacts on the Island’s built and natural environments and, where possible, deliver enhancements. This is expected to prevent the deterioration in the quality of these assets as a result of the Wylfa Newydd project.
6.3.15 With specific regard to amenity, as noted above, GP7: Protecting Health requires the project promoter to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the health impacts of the construction and operation of the Newydd project where appropriate, associated and related developments. Such assessments are expected to include consideration of those factors that can affect amenity including, for example, noise, air quality and light pollution impacts. Other guidance contained in the draft SPG (for example, GP9a: Maintaining and Creating Cohesive Communities, GP9b: Maintaining and Creating Cohesive Communities – Campus Style Temporary Accommodation for Construction Workers and GP10a: Construction Worker Accommodation and Anglesey’s Housing Market) promote high quality design which may enhance the public realm and improve local amenity as a result of new development.
Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG
6.3.16 The draft Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a positive impact on amenity.
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Q7. Is the SPG likely to lead to the threat of increased crime or violence in the community? Will it increase the risk of crime or violence, therefore reducing the desirability to live in the community?
Background
6.3.17 The Welsh language relies on thriving, sustainable communities, especially in those areas where 70% of the population or more speaks the language. An increase in crime or heightened fear of violence may upset the balance of a community and lead to an increased rate of out-migration.
Baseline analysis
6.3.18 Estimates from the Crime Survey England and Wales (CSEW) indicate that theft offences fell by 10%, and vehicle related theft fell by 9% between 2015 and 2016. However, violent crime increased by 4% over the same period. All CSEW crime fell by 5% (see Table 6.5).
Table 6.5 Number of Crimes Recorded by the Police in England and Wales12 % Change compared 2016 with 2015 Type of Crime Number of Offences (Thousands) Criminal Damage 1,182 -2 Theft Offences 3,436 -10 Vehicle-related theft 796 -9 Bicycle theft 297 -10 Other household theft 608 -13 Domestic Burglary 664 -7 Robbery 126 2 Theft from the person 367 -9 Other theft of personal property 704 -11
12 Office for National Statistics, Crime in England and Wales (2016) https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/crimeinenglandandwalesbullet intables
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% Change compared 2016 with 2015 Type of Crime Number of Offences (Thousands) All violence 1,336 4 Violence with injury 647 5 Violence without injury 689 3 All CSEW (Crime Survey England 6,080 -5 & Wales) Crime
6.3.19 Anglesey is within the administrative area of the Office of the Police and Crime Commissioner North Wales13. Figure 6.1 identifies the key crime statistics against the 2011/12 baseline against the four police and crime objectives for the 2015/16 period.
Figure 6.1 Performance against police and crime plan measures
13 Office of the Police and Crime Commissioner North Wales (2016) Annual Report 2015/16. Available online: http://www.northwales-pcc.gov.uk/Document-Library/Information/Publication-Scheme/What-are-priorities-are- and-how-we-are-doing/Annual-Reports/Annual-Report-2015-16.pdf
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6.3.20 Figure 6.2 illustrates the progressive fall in the rate of crime in Wales, mirroring the decline in England and Wales generally14.
14 http://gov.wales/docs/statistics/2011/110705crimeen.pdf
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Figure 6.2 Crime Trends in England and Wales
Language impact assessment
6.3.21 GP9a: Maintaining and Creating Cohesive Communities sets out a range of measures (to be considered by the project promoter as part of an assessment of socio-cultural impacts) that are expected to help ensure that the Wylfa Newydd project does not result in increased instances of crime and disorder. These measures include, inter- alia, designing out crime and the preparation of a Code of Conduct for construction workers.
6.3.22 Social deprivation is directly correlated with crime. A stronger local economy with better job prospects and services provision should help reduce crime rates. The focus of the SPG on the delivery of benefits to the Island’s communities through the Wylfa Newydd project is therefore expected to have an indirect positive impact on crime across the Island. In this respect, it is noted that the locational guidance contained in the SPG seeks to focus development and associated investment opportunities in those areas of the Island that are most deprived including communities in Holyhead and Llangefni.
Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG
6.3.23 The Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a positive impact on crime.
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6.4 Economy
Q8. Is the SPG likely to have a detrimental impact on local businesses? Could it potentially lead to local, Welsh speaking businesses closing down, due to: - A decline in overall local population? - An increase of non-Welsh speaking residents? - An increase in harmful / helpful competition?
Background 6.4.1 A poorly planned or unsuitable development can potentially have a negative impact on established local businesses. For example, it may limit the scope for a business to grow in the future, reduce its customer base or hamper the business from operating as usual. Customers as well as the business owners can be affected and in some circumstances this may promote the out-migration of Welsh speakers in search of better business conditions or better choice as consumers. Similarly, new businesses can bring competition which can lead to the closure of potentially long established local enterprises.
Baseline analysis 6.4.2 Appendix C provides an overview of the Welsh language skills in various industries on Anglesey as well as highlighting the number employed in each industry in 2011.
6.4.3 A large proportion of Anglesey’s workforce is employed in the public sector whilst retail and accommodation & food services account for the greatest proportions of service sector based employees. This is partially a reflection of the importance of tourism activity to the Island’s economy.
6.4.4 Anglesey is highly reliant on micro businesses employing four or less people. Approximate 70% of the businesses on Anglesey fall into this category with less than 5% employing 20 or more people.
Language impact assessment 6.4.5 The draft Wylfa Newydd SPG recognises the importance of protecting established local businesses and enhancing the opportunities they have to capitalise on the opportunities presented by the Wylfa Newydd project. In this context, GP4: Supporting the Local Supply Chain and Service Businesses sets out that the County Council will support the development of new, or the expansion of existing, local supply chain and service businesses not directly connected with the Wylfa Newydd project but which may gain from related activities during construction and operation. Guidance contained in the draft SPG also seeks to ensure that any potentially adverse
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impacts on existing businesses arising from the Newydd project are addressed. In this respect, GP5: Supporting the Visitor Economy sets out that the project promoter should ensure that the construction and operation of the Newydd and any associated developments do not adversely affect the tourism potential of the Island.
Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG 6.4.6 The draft Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a positive impact on local businesses. Positive impacts could be enhanced by:
Providing guidance on the requirement for the project promoter to measure and review the flow and circulation of money from the Wylfa Newydd project in the local economy. Carrying out such reviews could help the project promoter to better understand how exactly expenditure flows circulate within the local economy, and equip it to make more locally beneficial expenditure decisions.
Q9. Is the SPG likely to have a detrimental effect on local jobs? Will it: - Create jobs for the local, Welsh speaking, population (perhaps by virtue of local Welsh speaking people having the right skills)? - Threaten jobs of the local, Welsh speaking, population (perhaps by causing the closure of local businesses)?
Background 6.4.7 New development can influence the number, type and quality of local jobs available, and therefore influence migration rates.
Baseline analysis 6.4.8 Anglesey’s rate of economic activity is better than the average for Wales. Figure 6.3 shows the economic activity of the Island’s population and serves to highlight the relatively high level of self-employment, probably due to the nature of the rural area.
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Figure 6.3 Economic Activity (2011)
Source: 2011 Census
6.4.9 Through the Wylfa Newydd project, there is the potential for the generation of a significant number of employment and training opportunities that could benefit the residents of Anglesey.
Language impact assessment
6.4.10 As set out above, GP2: Local Job Creation and Skills Development includes a range of mechanisms that seek to ensure that the Island’s residents are able to benefit from the employment opportunities presented by the Wylfa Newydd project. The guidance also seeks to support existing businesses on the Island, including those within the tourism sector, so that they are also able to benefit from the opportunities presented by the Newydd project. GP14: Maintaining and Strengthening Welsh Language and Culture includes a recommendation of establishing a labour market for Welsh speakers and local labour contracts.
6.4.11 Longer-term, there are provisions within the SPG to work with other initiatives to secure long-term benefits, for example by working with the Energy Island Programme so that the skills developed on the Island are transferrable and that further opportunities are available for people to develop a sustainable career in their chosen field of interest.
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Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG
6.4.12 The draft Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a positive impact on local jobs.
Q10. Is the SPG likely to lead to greater economic diversity? Will it: - Potentially lead to a greater number of different jobs for the local, Welsh speaking population due to economic diversification? - Lead to increased in-migration of non-Welsh speakers?
Background
6.4.13 New development may create employment opportunities in an area which bring a requirement for specific skills. The new skills required may suit Welsh speakers or may attract the in-migration of non-Welsh speakers.
Baseline analysis
6.4.14 As highlighted at Appendix C, there are some economic sectors where the proportion of employees with Welsh language skills is more prevalent than others. Similarly, the ability to speak Welsh is greater in some employment classifications than others (see Table 6.6).
Table 6.6 Ability to speak Welsh by Socio-Economic employment classification
NS-SeC Total Can speak Cannot Welsh Speak Welsh All categories: NS-SeC 57,890 31,347 26,543 1. Higher managerial, administrative and 4,685 1,994 2,691 professional occupations 2. Lower managerial, administrative and 11,643 6,275 5,368 professional occupations 3. Intermediate occupations 6,491 3,639 2,852 4. Small employers and own account 6,996 3,524 3,472 workers 5. Lower supervisory and technical 5,092 2,773 2,319 occupations 6. Semi-routine occupations 9,295 5,165 4,130 7. Routine occupations 6,839 3,976 2,863 8. Never worked long-term unemployed 3,408 1,716 1,692
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NS-SeC Total Can speak Cannot Welsh Speak Welsh L15 Full-time students 3,441 2,285 1,156 Source: 2011 Census
Language impact assessment
6.4.15 As highlighted above, the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to promote the generation of local employment opportunities, promote skills and education, inward investment and the expansion of local businesses. Opportunities are likely to span a number of sectors including construction, the service sector and energy. Through the document’s strong support for the Anglesey Energy Island Programme in particular (see GP1: Supporting the Anglesey Energy Island Programme and Anglesey Enterprise Zone), the draft SPG is expected to help diversify the local economy with a focus towards the low carbon energy sector.
6.4.16 An increase in the number of employment opportunities is likely to attract non- Welsh speakers to the Island. It will therefore be important for the skills and education programmes to commence in advance of the economic opportunities so that the local population is ready and available to respond to the jobs as soon as they become available. This should reduce the potential for an adverse impact arising in respect of this aspect of the assessment.
Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG
6.4.17 On balance, the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a mixed positive and negative impact on economic diversification. Potential adverse impacts could be mitigated by:
Requiring that re-skilling and local training initiatives are established in advance of the requirement for jobs associated with the construction phase so that a locally- based, skilled pool of labour is available at the start of the Wylfa Newydd project.
Q11. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on local wage / salary levels? Will it potentially increase / decrease wage / salary levels due to increase work force / business competition?
Background
6.4.18 The decision on where to locate employment can be influenced by the level of competition within a sector or the perceived quality of the employees, skills and
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salary levels. In an increasingly global market, communities heavily reliant on a small number of employers can be vulnerable to relocation.
Baseline analysis
6.4.19 Resident and workplace weekly earnings in Anglesey have consistently been lower than in the UK between 2013 and 2017, and predominantly lower than in Wales as well (see Table 6.7). With weekly resident and workplace earnings in Anglesey at £498.30 and £466.50 in 2017, this is an underperformance compared to the UK (£552.70 and £552.30) and the rest of Wales (£505.90 and £498.40 respectively).
Table 6.7 Weekly Resident and Workplace Earnings 2013 to 2017
Area Earnings 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Anglesey Resident 446.70 445.90 481.90 472.60 498.30 Workplace 450.20 475.30 516.60 508.20 466.50 Wales Resident 475.30 480.00 487.60 499.20 505.90 Workplace 470.50 473.90 478.60 493.70 498.40 United Resident 517.90 521.10 529.00 540.90 552.70 Kingdom Workplace 517.60 520.40 528.50 540.10 552.30 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings – NOMIS 2017
Language impact assessment
6.4.20 The higher value earnings profile of the energy sector and supply chain could help to increase the overall value of the weekly and annual earnings for residents in Anglesey. In this context, the Wylfa Newydd SPG’s emphasis on maximising local employment opportunities generated by the Newydd project is expected to have a positive impact on this aspect of the assessment. Notwithstanding, it is acknowledged that it is difficult to accurately forecast the likely impact of the SPG on increasing the wage levels locally. With modern workforces spanning different countries, there is sufficient room to doubt whether market forces will allow income levels to increase significantly higher. New job opportunities in a wider range of sectors will, however, provide a wider market for local job-seekers, making them less dependent upon a small number of employers.
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Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG
6.4.21 On balance, the Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a positive impact on wage levels, providing a wider range of jobs and a potential for higher salaries.
Q12. Is the SPG likely to have an impact of the average cost of housing? Will it: - Force local, Welsh speaking people to leave the community? - Potentially lead to an increase in homelessness /housing stress amongst local Welsh speaking households? - Prevent local Welsh speaking people from returning to the area / community?
Background
6.4.22 Development can influence house prices in a given area. The changes to prices can impact different sections of the community disproportionately. It can also lead to either in-migration or out-migration that in turn can impact on the extent of Welsh language use within a community.
Baseline analysis
6.4.23 Figure 6.4 identifies property values in Anglesey from 2011 to 2015.
Figure 6.4 Price change by price level in Anglesey since 2011
Source: Land Registry
6.4.24 The average affordability ratio on Anglesey in 2011 was 3.65, which means that the average house price on the Island was 3.65 times more than the median income. However, a number of electoral wards have affordability ratios over 5, which is
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considered to be out of reach for most people and will have an impact on the social fabric of that community by restricting the ability of local people to afford to live there.
6.4.25 The construction and operation of the Wylfa Newydd project will attract a significant workforce to the Island, a large proportion of which will require accommodation. If not properly planned, the demand generated by the influx of workers could have an adverse impact on the local housing market by displacing existing households and increasing problems of affordability.
Language impact assessment
6.4.26 GP10a: Permanent Housing seeks to ensure that increased demand for housing as a result of the anticipated influx of Wylfa Newydd workers does not have an adverse impact on the local housing market. Potential mitigation measures identified in the SPG include the provision of affordable housing and the promotion of permanent accommodation that addresses local needs beyond the construction period. The SPG also supports initiatives to encourage local residents to accommodate construction workers, bringing incomes into their households and potentially enabling them to continue to live in a property that might be otherwise increasingly unaffordable due to changes in housing benefit payments and general increases in the cost of living. GP10b Campus Style Temporary Construction Worker Accommodation also supports the creation of purpose-built campus style worker accommodation, which accords with the JLDP,in order to reduce demand for existing properties on the Island and where appropriate, ensure a legacy benefit for future residential development remains.
Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG
6.4.27 The Wylfa Newydd SPG will have a positive impact on the local housing market. Positive impacts could be enhanced by:
Reference to the potential for the project promoter to put in place a scheme designed to specifically support first-time buyers from the Island to purchase their own home. This could be in the form of a grant scheme or similar to current scheme run by the UK Government at the moment. By assisting local people to take their first step on the property ladder, it would go a certain way to mitigating the potential impact of the Newydd project on affordability in the local housing market.
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6.5 Infrastructure
Q13. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on local schools? Will it: - Threaten / secure local schools due to an increase/ decrease student rolls? - Alter the balance between Welsh-speaking and non-Welsh speaking schools?
Background 6.5.1 Development can influence the number of children attending a school. A school could benefit from an increased intake associated with an influx of residents thereby making previously unviable schools viable. However, new development could also give rise to increased pressure on school places if provision is not adequately planned and surplus places are not available.
6.5.2 New development can also lead to an influx of non-Welsh speakers that can disturb the linguistic balance of a school and potentially contribute toward social tension within a community.
Baseline analysis 6.5.3 There are 47 primary schools, five secondary schools and one special needs school on Anglesey15. The County Council undertakes ongoing reviews of its schools to modernise education and to provide the best possible learning environment and facilities. In 2017 the County Council consulted on potential revisions to its schools’ estate to address a number of pressures. These include addressing the surplus in school places, to address budgetary pressures, to raise educational standards and to ensure modern facilities. The outcomes of these reviews are still subject to a final decision. Figure 6.5 shows the number of surplus primary school places in Anglesey at both primary and secondary level in 2011 and 201616.
Figure 6.5 Surplus School Places
15 Isle of Anglesey. Available online at: http://www.anglesey.gov.uk/education/schools/primary-secondary-and- special-schools/ 16 Isle of Anglesey County Council (2017) Non-statutory consultation – Seiriol area. Available online: http://www.anglesey.gov.uk/Journals/g/s/k/Composite-consultation-document---SAESNEG-f4.pdf
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6.5.4 Several options for the modernisation of provision in South East Anglesey considered the continued maintenance of three existing schools, the closure of either one of two schools or both with extension to the third, or the federation of all three.
6.5.5 In Holyhead, prompted by a high percentage of surplus places (27.7% in January 2011) the Welsh Government is to contribute to the cost of a new £10.3 million primary school (Ysgol Cybi) opened in 2017. This has led to the closure of three primary schools (Ysgol Llaingoch, Ysgol y Parc and Ysgol Parchedig Thomas Elis) in the Holyhead area.
6.5.6 As a proportion of the Wylfa Newydd project’s temporary and permanent workforce is expected to relocate their permanent household into the area, a proportion of these households will include children requiring school provision. However, it is very difficult to gauge the likely effect of the Newydd project on local schools in the absence of further information on the number of children likely to be attracted to the Island due to a parent working directly or indirectly on the project. The likely distribution of such families will also have an effect as some schools will be more suited for welcoming children with no understanding of the Welsh language. Provision is available on the Island to send in-migrating children with no Welsh language skills to a specialist language unit for intense Welsh learning before returning to the school serving their community.
6.5.7 The Welsh language policy of schools aims to ensure that all pupils are taught skills to have a balanced, age related ability in bilingualism and therefore allow them to become full members of the bilingual society of which they are part when living on the Island. As noted in Section 5.5, Welsh education policies in schools has established Welsh as a mandatory subject for pupils aged 5-16 in Wales (apart from
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some exempt schools). The majority of schools on the Island introduce English formally at the end of Key Stage 1.
Language impact assessment 6.5.8 Guidance contained in the Wylfa Newydd SPG including in particular GP6: Maintaining and Enhancing Community Facilities and Services, sets out the County Council’s expectation that the project promoter should ensure that key community services and facilities, including education, are in place to accommodate the construction and operational phases of the Newydd project. This is expected to help ensure that potential adverse impacts on schools provision as a result of the Newydd project are avoided. Further, the guidance sets out that any new provision should provide a lasting legacy benefit to the Island’s communities. GP14: Maintaining and Strengthening Welsh Language and Culture includes a recommendation that there be support for the provision of school places in Welsh medium schools and in pre- school nurseries This is expected to have a positive impact on this aspect of the assessment.
6.5.9 The language dynamics of schools will vary from one area to another. Whilst the SPG contains clear guidance in respect of maintaining and enhancing Welsh language and culture, it is considered that guidance could be provided to ensure that the impact of the Newydd project on the Island’s schools is not to the detriment of the current students and to the schools’ culture which is based on the Welsh language.
Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG 6.5.10 The Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a positive impact on school provision, although it is considered that positive impacts could be enhanced.
Q14. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on health care provision? Will it Threaten /secure local, Welsh medium facilities / services?
Background
6.5.11 The availability and quality of health care is an important consideration for people deciding to remain in an area or move to an area for the first time. This is especially true for older people, where health centres have become social gathering places, supporting Welsh-speaking networks.
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Baseline analysis
6.5.12 Anglesey is relatively well serviced through a network of primary care providers across the Island. According to data from the Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board17, the Island is served by 20 GP practices, 12 dental practices (includes non- NHS practices,) 13 pharmacies and six opticians.
6.5.13 Secondary care is predominantly provided by Ysbyty Gwynedd in Bangor which is also the main administration centre. Ysbyty Llandudno, Ysbyty Maelor (Wrexham) and Ysbyty Bronglais (Aberystwyth) also provide elements of secondary care.
6.5.14 There are two community hospitals on Anglesey – Ysbyty Cefni, Llangefni and Ysbyty Penrhos Stanley, Holyhead.
Language impact assessment
6.5.15 As noted above, guidance contained in the Wylfa Newydd SPG (including in particular GP6: Maintaining and Enhancing Community Facilities and Services) sets out the County Council’s expectation that the project promoter should ensure that key community services and facilities are in place to accommodate Newydd-related development. This includes health care provision. Further, the guidance also sets out that any new provision should be accessible and, where possible, provide a lasting legacy benefit to the Island’s communities. This is expected to have a positive impact on this aspect of the assessment.
Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG
6.5.16 The Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a positive impact on health care provision.
Q15. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on the provisions of local services, such as shops? Will it: - Threaten /secure local shops /post offices / banks / pubs in Welsh speaking communities, therefore forcing certain sections of the population out of the area /community e.g. elderly or disabled or the young?
17 Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board (2017) Local health services. Available online: http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sitesplus/861/home
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Background
6.5.17 The availability and choice of local services and facilities influences a community’s vitality and sustainability. It helps to retain the existing population in the community or even attract people with local connections to return to the area.
Baseline analysis
6.5.18 The Joint Local Development Plan (JLDP) includes a settlement hierarchy based on the availability of key services and facilities including retail and leisure facilities. The findings highlight that Holyhead, Llangefni and Amlwch are the mostwell-served settlements on the Island and are identified as Urban Service Centres. Beaumaris, Benllech, Bodedern, Cemaes, Gaerwen, Llanfair Pwllgwyngyll, Menai Bridge, Pentraeth, Rhosneigr and Valley, meanwhile, are categorised as Local Service Centres, providing for the essential service needs of their own population and immediate catchment areas. The Island’s remaining settlements, meanwhile, are considered to be lower order centres with a limited range of services and facilities. The JLDP also includes a retail hierarchy, which identifies Holyhead and Llangefni and urban retail centres and Amlwch, Benllech, Beaumaris, Cemaes, Llanfairpwll, Menai Bridge, Rhosneigr and Valley as local retail centres.
6.5.19 The provision of shops and local services has changed dramatically in the last 20 years, with a number of village and town shops closed due to competition from larger retailers, improved population mobility due to cars and public transport and, more recently, the switch to online facilities.
Language impact assessment
6.5.20 The locational guidance set out in the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG reflects the spatial strategy of the JLDP and seeks to direct the majority of associated development including construction worker accommodation and employment uses to the Island’s main settlements. This is expected to help maintain and enhance the viability of existing services and facilities in these communities. The draft SPG also recognises the potential need for more limited growth, commensurate with settlement size, in lower order centres which may support their sustainability.
6.5.21 As noted above, guidance contained within the draft SPG, including in particular GP6: Maintaining and Enhancing Community Facilities and Services, sets out the County Council’s expectation that the project promoter should ensure that key community services and facilities are in place to support Newydd-related development. Further, the guidance also sets out that any new provision should be accessible and provide a lasting legacy benefit to the Island’s communities. This is expected to have a positive impact on this aspect of the assessment.
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Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG
6.5.22 The Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a positive impact on local service provision.
Q16. Will the SPG potentially lead to social tensions, conflict or serious divisions within the Welsh speaking community? Will it: - Have a significant, uneven effect on different parts of the local community, potentially advantaging some groups and disadvantaging others? - Violate traditional values of certain parts of the community?
Background
6.5.23 Some developments can have adverse effects on a community leading to social tensions or conflict. Such conflicts can lead people to conclude that cultural concerns are not being considered, which in turn can have a demoralising effect in Welsh speaking communities.
Baseline analysis
6.5.24 Social isolation is an issue in some parts of the Island. Some areas are very rural and suffer from a lack of shops and other local services together with poor accessibility. Conversely, there are clusters in more built up areas of the Island with high levels of deprivation.
6.5.25 The Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) can be used to measure the level of deprivation on Anglesey. The 2014 WIMD highlights that out of the 44 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) on Anglesey, 1 LSOA (Morawelon) falls within the 10% most deprived LSOAs in Wales, 7 are within the 20% most deprived, 8 are within the 30% most deprived and 20 within the 50% most deprived. Considering the measures comprising the WIMD, Anglesey had the following numbers of its LSOAs in the 10% most deprived in Wales:
Income (3);
Employment (2);
Health (0);
Education (1);
Housing (1);
Physical Environment (0);
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Access to Services (11); and
Community Safety (2).
6.5.26 Figure 6.5 maps the relative deprivation of LSOAs across Anglesey and serves to highlight that there is a concentration of deprivation in Holyhead.
Figure 6.5 Deprivation Status by Anglesey LSOA
6.5.27 Menter Iaith Môn was established in 1997 in order to “promote and facilitate the Welsh language on the island”. It offers support to communities on the island to increase and develop their use of the Welsh language. Advice and assistance is available to individuals, organisations and businesses, and activities are also arranged to raise the profile of the Welsh language. Ynys Môn one of the strongholds of the Welsh language with over 60% of the population bilingual, which increases to 73% among children and young people. The language is used in the home, in the workplace, in schools and in the community.
6.5.28 North Wales police now record crime figures relating to language hatred, with incidents taking place regularly in different parts of North Wales.
Language impact assessment
6.5.29 One of the key aims of the Wylfa Newydd SPG is to maximise benefits associated with the Newydd project for the Island’s communities. More specifically, the locational guidance contained in the SPG seeks to focus development in those areas of the Island that are most deprived (such as communities in Holyhead and Llangefni) and in consequence, it is anticipated that related opportunities will be accessible to these communities, potentially helping to address deprivation. This is expected to
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help reduce potential social tensions that could arise as result of the Newydd project and also maximise related benefits for the Island’s most deprived communities.
6.5.30 GP9a: Maintaining and Creative Cohesive Communities relates specifically to community cohesion. It sets out that the County Council will expect the project promoter to consider a range of measures to promote community cohesion and avoid social tensions whilst GP10a and GP10b specifically relates to the need to maintain and strengthen Welsh language and culture in the Island’s communities.
Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG
6.5.31 Overall, the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a positive impact on community cohesion.
Q17. Will the SPG potentially lead to changes in local Welsh traditions / cultures? Will it: - Result in local Welsh speaking households moving away from the area? - Lead to significant increase of non-local, non-Welsh speaking households? - Lead to an erosion of family ties or other social networks? - Lead to significant changes to the economic or social context, threatening traditional lifestyles? - Impact on local, Welsh speaking households by introducing / accelerating social change?
Background
6.5.32 Some development can lead to the removal of Welsh speakers from a community and/or the introduction of non-Welsh speakers to a predominantly Welsh speaking community as a result of the job opportunities now on offer.
Baseline analysis
6.5.33 Relevant baseline data can be found under analysis for criteria 1, 2, 3, and 10, and further baseline information is provided at Appendix B.
Language impact assessment
6.5.34 The draft Wylfa Newydd SPG recognises the unique social fabric of the Island and the role of the Welsh language in sustaining the way of life for the majority of its residents. Further, by minimising the impacts of the Newydd project, and maximising benefits to the Island’s communities and environment, this is expected to help reduce the out-migration of the Island’s existing resident population.
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Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG
6.5.35 The Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a positive impact on this aspect of the assessment.
Q18. Is the SPG likely to have a potential impact on the local voluntary / activity / youth groups? Will it force local people active in local groups to move out of the community, due to: - An increase in unemployment / economic stress? - An increase in house prices / housing stress?
Background
6.5.36 Local voluntary and youth groups play an influential part in maintaining and promoting the Welsh language through activities and support to residents.
Baseline analysis
6.5.37 Baseline data presented for criteria 9 and 12 are applicable for this question.
Language impact assessment
6.5.38 Previous discussion on other criteria indicate that the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG should have a positive impact on Anglesey’s economy and help to avoid adverse impacts associated with the Newydd project on the local housing market. The guidance contained in GP9a: Maintaining and Creating Cohesive Communities also sets out the County Council’s expectations that the project promoter will work with other relevant organisations (which may include local community groups) to enhance community cohesion.
Implications for the Wylfa Newydd SPG
6.5.39 The draft Wylfa Newydd SPG is expected to have a positive impact on this aspect of the assessment.
6.6 Summary of Key Findings
6.6.1 Table 6.8 summarises the findings of the assessment of the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG against the 18 assessment questions.
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Table 6.8 Summary of the Assessment Findings Assessment Questions Score 1. 1.Is the SPG likely to lead to a population increase / decrease? + 2. Is the SPG likely to lead to an increase in in-migration? +/- 3. Is the SPG likely to lead to lead to out-migration? + 4. Is the SPG likely to lead to a changing age structure of the community? + 5. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on the health of people? + 6. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on the amenity of the local area? + 7. 7. Is the SPG likely to lead to the threat of increased crime or violence in the community? + 8. Is the SPG likely to have a detrimental impact on local businesses? + 9. Is the SPG likely to have a detrimental effect on local jobs? + 10. Is the SPG likely to lead to greater economic diversity? +/- 11. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on local wage / salary levels? + 12. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on the average cost of housing? + 13. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on local schools? + 14. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on health care provision? + 15. 15. Is the SPG likely to have an impact on the provision of local services such as shops? + 16. 16. Will the SPG potentially lead to social tensions, conflict or serious divisions within the Welsh speaking communities? + 17. 17. Will the SPG potentially lead to changes in local Welsh traditions / cultures? + 18. Is the SPG likely to have a potential impact on local voluntary / activity / youth groups? +
Key Predicted Impact Explanation Symbol + Positive Impact 0 Neutral Impact ? Unknown Impact +/- A range of possible positive and negative impacts - Minor Negative Impact
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6.6.2 The findings of the assessment suggest that the guidance contained in the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG is likely to have a broadly positive impact on Welsh language. This principally reflects the document’s specific emphasis on ensuring that the Newydd project maintains and enhances the Welsh language and culture and also, indirectly, the expectation that it will help to ensure that the Newydd project does not have an adverse impact on the Island’s communities and environment but delivers employment opportunities and lasting legacy benefits that will help retain the local, Welsh-speaking population.
6.6.3 No potentially significant adverse impacts have been identified during the assessment. However, the draft SPG’s emphasis on the promotion of inward investment associated with the Wylfa Newydd project may result in an increased rate of in- migration (related to, for example, associated employment generation) which could have an adverse impact on Welsh language. In this context, the assessment has identified a number of areas where the positive impacts of the draft Wylfa Newydd SPG on the Welsh language could be enhanced and such negative impacts avoided.
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7 Monitoring and Next Steps
7.1 Monitoring
7.1.1 The implementation of the Wylfa Newydd SPG will be monitored as part of the Sustainability Appraisal (SA) process. The associated monitoring framework, presented in the Joint Local Development Plan (JLDP), includes indicators related to Welsh language issues. Through these indicators, the County Council will monitor the Welsh language impacts of the implementation of the SPG.
7.1.2 It should be noted that GP26: Implementation and Monitoring of the SPG sets out that the County Council will work with the project promoter to develop arrangements for monitoring the impacts of the Wylfa Newydd project and the outcomes of related mitigation. It is recommended that the County Council works with the project promoter to identify a framework for monitoring the impacts of the Wylfa Newydd project on Welsh language.
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Appendix A Levels of Welsh Language Skills on Anglesey, 2011
The following figures were provided by the Welsh Language Commissioner, and are subject to Crown Copyright.
Proportion of people (aged 3 and over) with no Welsh language skills
%, Census 2011
below 17
17 i 26
26 i 32
32 i 39
39 i 47
47 i 56
over 56
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Proportion of people (aged 3 and over) who can only understand Welsh verbally, 2011 %, Census 2011
below 6
6 i 8
8 i 11
11 i 14
14 i 17
17 i 21
over 21
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Appendix B Baseline Information for the WLIA Criteria, by electoral division, 2016
Welsh speakers Isle of Anglesey (electoral divisions) age 3+ (%)
W05000001: Aberffraw 60.4
W05000002: Amlwch Port 64.5
W05000003: Amlwch Rural 54.3
W05000004: Beaumaris 39.5
W05000005: Bodffordd 73.3
W05000006: Bodorgan 68.3
W05000007: Braint 73.2
W05000008: Bryngwran 71.2
W05000009: Brynteg 48.7
W05000010: Cadnant 47.4
W05000011: Cefni 80.5
W05000882: Cwm Cadnant 57.5
W05000013: Cyngar 80.8
W05000014: Gwyngyll 70.5
W05000015: Holyhead Town 39.1
W05000883: Kingsland 42.9
W05000017: Llanbadrig 52.4
W05000884: Llanbedrgoch 43.9
W05000019: Llanddyfnan 64.7
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W05000020: Llaneilian 58.9
W05000021: Llanfaethlu 64.4
W05000022: Llanfair-yn-Neubwll 50.5
W05000885: Llanfihangel Ysgeifiog 75.8
W05000024: Llangoed 48.4
W05000025: Llanidan 65.1
W05000026: Llannerch-y-medd 69.9
W05000886: London Road 45.3
W05000028: Maeshyfryd 40.6
W05000029: Mechell 61.1
W05000030: Moelfre 52.3
W05000031: Morawelon 40.4
W05000032: Parc a'r Mynydd 50.4
W05000887: Pentraeth 54.8
W05000034: Porthyfelin 39.7
W05000035: Rhosneigr 36
W05000036: Rhosyr 59.3
W05000888: Trearddur 38.1
W05000038: Tudur 80.7
W05000039: Tysilio 59.2
W05000040: Valley 54.7
Isle of Anglesey (average) 57.2
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Appendix C Welsh Language Skills by Industry, 2011
Source: Census 2011