North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) London International Model United Nations 21St Session | 2020

North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) London International Model United Nations 21st Session | 2020

London International NATO Model United Nations 2020

Table of Contents

Introduction Letter 3

TOPIC A: Redefining the Security Alliance 7

Definitions 9

Timeline of Events 11

Discussion 12

Bloc Positions 16

Conclusion 17

Questions a Resolution should answer 17

Further Readings 34

Bibliography 35

London International NATO Model United Nations 2020

Introduction Letter

Welcome to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation's simulation at LIMUN 2020! As your chairs, we are excited to see a diverse range of backgrounds and ideas mix at the committee, which is what we have come to expect of LIMUN - the largest and most prestigious Model UN Conference in Europe.

For this year’s discussion, we wanted to bring you close to the Janus-faced struggle within the existing organisation: whether to stick close to their original mandate and expand membership throughout Europe alongside traditional security lines, or expand the mandate of the alliance through new dimensions of safety for its states and citizens.

This is sure to be a stimulating weekend for all involved, and we truly hope that you will engage with these topics and use these few days in a manner that makes the best use of such precious time to set aside one’s daily business and grapple with the issues of our day which have left the brightest minds at a loss for a solution.

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Director - Sharif Kazemi

Hello delegates and welcome to NATO at LIMUN 2020!

My name is Sharif and I hail from sunny Iran. For the past nine years, I've been calling (not- so-sunny) London my home and I'm in my last year of undergraduate studying International Relations and History at the LSE. LIMUN has always been one of my most beloved conferences and it's a real treat to get to chair once again at such a prestigious committee discussing so many intellectually stimulating topics.

Model UN in general, has led me to meet some fascinating people and build lasting relationships, I hope that you will take the same opportunity to meet and mingle with your fellow delegates. For example, my social life was made quite vibrant thanks to the #TeamLSE Model UN team of which I’ve been a proud member.

I adore meeting new people and would be delighted to chat at any point throughout the weekend, so feel free to hit me up!

Hope you all have a pleasant weekend and see you in LIMUN 2020!

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Assistant Director - Amy Blaettler

Hi everyone, my name is Amy and I’m delighted to be chairing the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation for you at LIMUN 2020, together with Sharif!

I am currently doing my master’s in Philosophy at King’s College London, before that I studied Political Science and Philosophy at the University of Zurich in Switzerland. I was born and raised in Switzerland but am also British and Portuguese by blood. I was lucky to discover two of my passions while I was doing my bachelor’s in Zurich: Firstly, I love Philosophy, and you will probably not escape me going on about how fascinated I am of some philosophical paradox while talking to me over a glass of wine at a MUN social. However, while I love Philosophy, please refrain from asking me what I intend to do with my degree, not because I do not have an answer, but because I find it a horribly annoying question.

Secondly, I genuinely enjoy meeting new people. And that is what brought me to MUN. By attending MUN conferences all around Europe I have met so many fantastic new people that I now consider some of my closest friends. I think that the fact that you can participate in MUN at almost any university in the world, and even at many high schools, is so important and brings so many people together, all while living in a multipolar world, like the one we live in today.

To be a part of such a big family has provided me with so much happiness throughout my studies, and I hope that I will be able to pass on some of it to you at LIMUN 2020.

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Introduction to the Committee: NATO

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation – or ‘NATO’ for short – is first and foremost a collective security and defence alliance, with (currently) 29 member states from the Euro-Atlantic sphere. It was founded in the aftermath of the Second World War, as tensions between the West and East grew, and in particular fear of the Soviet ideology spreading amongst Europe grew. The founding members Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the United States signed the Washington Treaty in 1949, which outlines the foundation and framework for the organisation, and thus, creating the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. At the heart of the organisation lies Article 5 of the Washington Treaty:

“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all [...] will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of

the North Atlantic area.”1.

The alliance outlines two approaches to maintaining peace: a political approach, by promoting and enforcing democratic values, as well as a military approach, by resolving conflicts and disputes by, for example, engaging in crisis-management. Every decision in NATO symbolises the collective will of all 29 member states, as the organisation operates under consensus.

Therefore, any resolution passed must satisfy all existing members.

1 NATO, The North Atlantic Treaty.

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TOPIC A: Redefining the Security Alliance

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Introduction

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was founded in 1949 with a clear and unswerving purpose: to protect from Soviet expansion and aggression. However, since the fall of the USSR, many have been wondering what NATO’s purpose is now. This uncertainty has most recently been voiced by the current President of the United States. As an organisation, NATO claims to promote democratic values and, as manifested in Article 5, protect and aid its member states in times of crisis. But perhaps it is time to discuss what these member states need protection from.

This topic ought to explore and redefine what exactly ‘security’ means, and what types of threats NATO wants to protect from. New security threats are on the rise, such as the Climate Disaster, the Migrant Crisis (as viewed by some members to be a security risk), and more. Furthermore, with the United States, arguably NATO’s most valuable contributor to the alliance, doubts regarding the alliance, it is of utmost importance that NATO reaffirms its commitments to serve member states’ interests, or they might risk losing its most important ally.

This discussion is open to a great deal more innovation and bold proposals and we encourage all delegates to engage with this subject on such grounds whilst still acknowledging present concerns of the alliance.

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Definitions Human Security Human security is a comprehensive, prevention orientated, people-centred vision of security which seeks to address a broad range of threats faced by individuals and communities.2

Environmental Security Environmental security is a multi-faceted conceptualisation of security which acknowledges the circular effect of climate change and security situations on one another, ultimately guiding discourse towards policies of disaster prevention, resilience, and response.3 Examples of such environmental security concerns are centred on an awareness of lack of readiness in the event of events such as rapid flooding and wildfires, and climate change’s warming of the planet leading to worsening ecological conditions.

Hybrid Warfare NATO defines this term as ‘adversaries with the ability to simultaneously employ conventional and non-conventional means adaptively in pursuit of their objectives’.4 Cyber warfare and other methods not privy to conventional warfare are considered to be facets of Hybrid Warfare.

Cyber Warfare Cyber warfare refers to the actions by of a nation-state, or international entity, or non-state actor to attack and attempt to damage a nation's computers or information networks. NATO has reaffirmed Cyber defence as a ‘part of [the alliance’s] core task of collective defence.’ Recently focusing

2 LSE IDEAS, Human Security. 3 Campbell, National Security Implications of Climate Change. 4 Jasper and Moreland, The Islamic State is a Hybrid Threat.

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on improving the resilience of the cyber-network of the alliance, NATO Allies agreed to set up a new Cyberspace Operations Centre as part of NATO’s strengthened Command Structure at the Brussels Summit in 2018.5

Non-State Terrorism Non-state terrorism refers to the actions of groups or individuals not enjoying the backing of nation-states which undertake violent actions intended to achieve political results, most often through spreading terror; NATO’s current guidelines focus on awareness, resilience, and engagement as the three pillars of its counter-terrorism policy.6

Crisis Management As part of NATO’s ‘collective readiness’ goal, it aims to have a robust and rapid response to any emerging crises which threaten the security of its member states. A crisis is an event which has the potential to escalate into, or has been already, a conflict situation. NATO’s current Crisis Management Strategy focuses on de-escalating violent situations in order to achieve conflict resolution; however, the current model is not as relevant for new security threats as traditional conflict situations.7

5 NATO, Cyber Defence. 6 NATO, Countering Terrorism. 7 Marinov, NATO Crisis Management.

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Timeline of Events The below outlines key stages in the development of non-traditional security policies.8

2003 JUNE - Streamlining and overhauling military structure of NATO. Command structure streamlined to enable deployment of lighter, more flexible forces, a precedent for future reform.

2008 MAY - NATO Cyber defence centre opens, signalling the first expansion of security operations to cyber-space after an alleged Russian attack on Estonia’s internet structure.

2011 MARCH - NATO takes on the responsibility for enforcing a no- fly zone over Libya after the UN Security Council approves this measure to protect civilians from Col Gaddafi's forces, not for an explicit security threat to the states of NATO themselves.

2013 OCTOBER - NATO adopts a definition of the environment in order to pursue targeted protection policies; the first alliance-wide parameters for responding to climate and environmental disasters

2015 DECEMBER - NATO adopts a comprehensive strategy on countering Hybrid Warfare, particularly aimed at responding to new techniques used by Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine

2017 AUGUST - NATO opens The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats in Helsinki for coordinating their civil- military capabilities and resilience against Hybrid Threats

8 NATO, Environmental Protection; Countering Terrorism; NATO’s response to hybrid threats.

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Discussion

Historic account of ‘Security’ NATO was founded in 1949 after the Second World War, with its main purpose to protect states from intimidation or risks posed by communist countries, particularly by the USSR at the time.9 Europe at the time was still very much shook from the threats of nationalism. Thus, aiding and protecting European countries, particularly those weakened from the war, in re-establishing and stabilising their economy was one of NATO’s chief focuses at the time.

Once the Cold War commenced, and the Warsaw Pact was formed as NATO’s ‘communist’ or ‘Eastern’ counterpart, NATO went on to include the threat of nuclear war, should any member state of the Warsaw Pact threaten to attack a NATO state member.10 This shows, NATO’s main goal was to protect their member states by any means necessary, from aggression and threats arising in the East.

However, when the USSR collapsed, and the Cold War ended, NATO’s relationship with Russia took a turn. Indeed, while Russia seemed to be less of a problem for the time being, the political unrest caused in the former Soviet states from the collapse of the union was now NATO’s main focus. Moreover, NATO was committed to their involvement in the civil war in Yugoslavia in the late 1990s.11 There had been a shift in NATO’s concerns from the threat of Russia to the post-collapse effects of the USSR. In fact, since the collapse of the USSR, many former satellite states, such as the Baltic states, have since joined the security alliance. Thus, after the collapse of the USSR, NATO seemingly reorganised itself by making

9 Amadeo, NATO, Its Purpose, History, and Members. 10 Ibid. 11 Ibid.

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expansion a main goal, consequently spreading democratic and liberal values in Europe, fostering stability and peace.

Revised account of ‘Security’ The collapse of the USSR has raised questions over the obsolescence of NATO. What do the member states need protection from if their main enemy, the USSR, no longer exists?

Despite these concerns, Russia’s recent activities show that they have somewhat recovered from the collapse of the USSR, and they have been demonstrating aggressive military presence ever since.12 Indeed, in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, it seemed that NATO re-focussed their attention towards the East, compiling various measures to contain the threat from Russia. Albeit, Ukraine was and still is not a member of NATO, NATO highly condemned Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine, declaring it an illegal action, and considered it a potential threat towards other former satellite states of the USSR. In response to the illegal annexation of Crimea, increased their presence in the East – particularly in their member states Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland – to deter Russian aggression and protect its member states. And even more recently, in 2018, NATO agreed in a meeting to design further steps to curb Russian aggression and maintain it.13

While recent activities in Eastern Europe, particularly in Ukraine, still show that Russia should not to be underestimated, many consider there to be new security issues that should be addressed. Most notably, President Trump of the United States has, ever since he was elected, voiced at various times their withdrawal from the security alliance, should NATO fail to

12 Rice, NATO's New Order. 13 Amadeo, NATO, Its Purpose, History, and Members.

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recognise the US’ interests. While it seems that the main issue for the United States is the seemingly uneven contributions of the individual member states, Trump too has claimed that the security alliance fails to incorporate newer ‘security threats’, as they still largely focus their attention on deterring Russia.14

But even prior to Trump, it seems that new threats have been arising, that ought to be included by the organisation. Most notably, the September 11 Terrorist Attacks made the deterrence and fight against terrorism a priority for one of its member states: the USA. NATO’s invocation of article 5 in response to the attacks, and subsequent support for the US in their fight against terrorism, led to the security alliance categorising terrorism as a security issue. For example, NATO’s Counter Terrorism Policy Guidlines outlines the alliance’s commitment to fight terrorism (found here).

This leads to question of expanding security to cover environmental matters. Take for example Iceland, which, as a result of Global Warming, suffers from its land rising 3.5cm each year.15 Undoubtedly, even for some of the United States’ island territories, such as the Marshall Islands, the

14 Amadeo, NATO, Its Purpose, History, and Members. 15 Worland, Climate Change Is Making the Land in Iceland Rise.

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impact of Climate Change poses immediate threats to the population. However, it seems that NATO still today lacks to formulate a strategy to combat these particular security issues, and indeed, it is unclear as to whether NATO considers the security threats arising from Climate Change as central to their organisation at all.

The issues do not stop with environmental security. Indeed, new forms of warfare, such as cybercrime and hybrid warfare have emerged and are being used not only by non-state actors, such as terrorist groups, but also by states themselves. NATO, indeed, has recognised cyber threats as a key issue and has designed various policies to counter the threats; most recently, NATO has set up a Cyberspace Operations Center as part of

NATO’s organisation, showing that they take the threats seriously.16 Furthermore, NATO seems to experience these forms of security issues in combination with their original security concern, Russia, and has formulated measures to combat both simultaneously. For example, NATO agreed to take further measures to fight against Russian aggression, including new measures regarding cyberwarfare and terrorism.17

Nonetheless, it remains questionable as to whether NATO has successfully repositioned themselves after the collapse of the Soviet Union, as it remains somewhat unclear where their priorities lie. Undoubtedly, the organisation ought to discuss what types of issues should be recognised as security threats (see the section on ‘Definitions’). If they fail to do so, they might risk losing its most valuable contributor. Or, perhaps more importantly, the alliance’s main reason for existence may be called into question if it fails to protect member states from new, and more prescient, security threats.

16 NATO, Cyber Defence 17 Amadeo, NATO, Its Purpose, History, and Members.

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Bloc Positions

Drives for Innovation: Germany, France, UK A distaste for direct military intervention, coupled with an increased view of their security concerns emanating from collective problems (such as mass movement of peoples from unstable regions beyond NATO) has opened up the possibility of innovation in security.18 However, this opening within traditionally leading nations in NATO must be balanced against an increasing isolationism from international organisations, seen most clearly in the UK and USA.

NATO’s Immigration Frontline Spain, Turkey, Greece, and Italy, amongst many others, have seen an influx of migrants as one of their chief security concerns. Italy has even gone as far as requesting NATO’s aid in dealing with this matter.19 Humanitarian concerns, coupled with the disproportionate burden carried by these nations mean that they are eager to include migrant issues into any innovation in a manner that improves their security.

NATO’s Eastern Frontline Having seen a recent surge of Russian aggression and interference, those nations most at risk if the Russian tanks rolled Westwards are eager to ensure that NATO’s traditional mission is not forgotten amidst all the excitement, and that protections against Hybrid and Cyber Warfare are improved.20

18 Kfir, NATO & the Need for a Human Security Agenda. 19 The Local, Italy seeks help from Nato to tackle migrant crisis. 20 Agenda, Russian FM Lavrov supports resumption of flights to Georgia as Georgians ‘realised consequences’ of June 20.

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Conclusion The international world has changed ever since NATO was formed in 1949. The security alliance, once with a fixed and clear purpose, seems today to struggle with defining its priorities and, most importantly, seemingly fails to recognise new security threats; particularly since Russia’s recent resurgence and aggressive behaviour. The future of the organisation hangs on the answer to these questions: what does security mean for the alliance? What does the alliance want to protect from? And what issues are seen as central threats to its member states?

Without addressing these questions, NATO could indeed, as president Trump himself doubts, become obsolete.

Questions a Resolution should answer:

❖ Which new security parameters should the alliance seek to include in its mission? (Scope)

• What issues ought to be recognised as NATO’s main security issues?

• Is the threat from Russia still real, or misconstrued?

❖ How heavily invested should the alliance’s resources and focus be on each of these parameters? (Scale)

• Where are the alliances priorities?

❖ How will these changes be different from, or building on, existing reforms noted in the latest Secretary-General’s annual report?

❖ Through what measures will existing security concerns and commitments continue to be addressed?

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Further Reading

On the topic in General: Daalder, Ivo H. (1999, 01 Apr). NATO in the 21st Century: What Purpose? What Missions?. Brookings. Retrieved from: https://www.brookings.edu/research/nato-in-the-21st-century- what-purpose-what-missions/. 25.10.2019.

United Nations Climate Change (2014, 14 Oct). Climate Change Threatens National Security Says Pentagon. Retrieved from: https://unfccc.int/news/climate-change-threatens-national-security-says- pentagon. 25.10.2019.

On NATO’s former concept of security and purpose: Rice, Mark J. (2016, Apr). NATO's New Order: The Alliance After the Cold War. Origins. http://origins.osu.edu/article/natos-new-order-alliance-after- cold-war. 25.10.2019.

On Trump’s recent doubts: Stewart, Emily (2019, 15 Jan). Trump has reportedly discussed withdrawing from NATO. That would be great for Russia. Vox. Retrieved from: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/1/15/18183759/trump- pull-out-of-nato-nyt-mattis. 25.10.2019. Barnes, Julian E. and Cooper, Helene (2019, 14 Jan). Trump Discussed Pulling U.S. From NATO, Aides Say Amid New Concerns Over Russia. New York Times. Retrieved from: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/politics/nato-president- trump.html. 25.10.2019.

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Bibliography

• Agenda. (2019, October). Russian FM Lavrov supports resumption of flights to Georgia as Georgians ‘realised consequences’ of June 20. Retrieved from: https://agenda.ge/en/news/2019/2582

• Amadeo, Kimberly (2018, 12 Dec). NATO, Its Purpose, History, and Members. The Balance. Retrieved from: https://www.thebalance.com/nato-purpose-history-members-and- alliances-3306116.

• BBC News (2012, February). Timeline: NATO. Retrieved from http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/country_profiles/1543000 .stm

• Campbell, J. (2017, July). National Security Implications of Climate Change. Retrieved from: https://www.cfr.org/blog/national- security-implications-climate-change

• Jasper, S., and Scott Moreland. (2014, December). The Islamic State is a Hybrid Threat: Why Does That Matter? Retrieved from: https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-islamic-state-is-a-hybrid- threat-why-does-that-matter

• Kfir, I. (2014, June). NATO & the Need for a Human Security Agenda. Retrieved from: http://insct.syr.edu/nato-need-human- security-agenda/

• LSE IDEAS. Human Security: An approach and methodology for business contributions to peace and sustainable development. Retrieved from: http://www.lse.ac.uk/ideas/Assets/Documents/project-docs/LSE- IDEAS-Human-Security-Background.pdf

• Marinov, I. (2007). NATO Crisis Management. Retrieved from: https://www.cmdrcoe.org/download.php?id=288 • NATO (1949, Apr 04): The North Atlantic Treaty Washington D.C. - 4 April 1949. Retrieved from: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm. 19

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• NATO. (2013, October). Environmental Protection: Home. Retrieved from: http://www.natolibguides.info/Environment

• NATO. (2014, May). Energy insecurity: what can NATO do? Retrieved from: https://www.nato.int/docu/review/2014/NATO- Energy-security-running-on-empty/Energy-insecurity- nato/EN/index.htm

• NATO (2017, 17 Jul). Countering Terrorism. Retrieved from: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_77646.htm

• NATO. (2019, August). NATO’s response to hybrid threats. Retrieved from: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_156338.htm

• NATO (2019, 06 Sep). Cyber Defence. Retrieved from: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_78170.htm.

• Rice, Mark J. (2016, Apr). NATO's New Order: The Alliance After the Cold War. Origins. http://origins.osu.edu/article/natos-new-order- alliance-after-cold-war. 25.10.2019.

• The Local. (June 2018). Italy seeks help from Nato to tackle migrant crisis. Retrieved from: https://www.thelocal.it/20180611/italy-seeks-help-from-nato-to- tackle-migrant-crisis

• United Nations Trust Fund for Human Security. (2009, September). Human Security in Theory and Practice. Retrieved from: https://www.unocha.org/sites/dms/HSU/Publications%20and%20Pr oducts/Human%20Security%20Tools/Human%20Security%20in%2 0Theory%20and%20Practice%20English.pdf

• Worland, Justin (2015, 02 Feb). Climate Change Is Making the Land in Iceland Rise. Time. Retrieved from: https://time.com/3691920/climate-change-iceland/

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TOPIC B: Ukraine Accession

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Introduction At the Bucharest Summit in 2008, both NATO and Ukraine agreed that Ukraine would become a member of NATO.21 With the Ukraine being one of the largest countries bordering Russia, NATO has valued and maintained close relationships with Ukraine in order to ensure stability and peace in Europe.

The question of Ukraine’s addition to the security alliance is a particularly tricky one, given the context of the creation of NATO. NATO was founded in 1949 with the aim of sustaining peace and stability in Europe after the second world war. This meant, largely, the deterrence of Soviet aggression and expansion. It thus goes without much contemplation that maintaining a stable Ukraine is key in order to sustaining peace in Europe, as well as the broader Euro-Atlantic region. With the annexation of Crimea, Russia’s intentions are becoming more questionable and stability in the region of Eastern Europe is becoming uncertain. This in turn creates tension regarding the question and urgency of Ukraine’s membership to NATO. This topic ought to discuss the accession of Ukraine and its potential to enhance stability and peace in Europe, in particular in Eastern Europe, and what the next steps are in order to complete Ukraine’s membership to NATO.22

21 NATO, Relations with Ukraine. 22 Ibid.

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Definitions This section includes descriptions of many current treaties which frame the relationship between Ukraine and NATO. Any resolutions reached during the committee session must build on, or at least acknowledge, these works.

Charter on a Distinctive Partnership

The Charter on a Distinctive Partnership between NATO and Ukraine, signed in 1997, remains until today the most important framework for the relationship between the security alliance and Ukraine.23 The Charter details the foundation and basis of the cooperation between NATO and Ukraine, containing clauses that reaffirm the United Nations Charter, to the specific areas NATO will assist the Ukraine with, as well as the Ukraine’s commitment to ensure and pursue larger security of Europe alongside NATO’s member states. The full Charter can be found here.

The Declaration to Complement the Charter (2009) followed the Charter on a Distinctive Partnership and is seen as an extension to the original Charter, thus deepening and strengthening the relationship between NATO and

Ukraine.24 The most important part of the Declaration was the creation/implementation of the Annual National Program (see below).25 The Declaration to Complement the Charter can be found here.

Annual National Program (ANP) The ANP is a program designed to promote Ukraine’s political, economic and defense related reforms in order to ensure cooperation with NATO and the potential for membership.26 The ANP can be found here.

23 NATO, Charter on a Distinctive Partnership between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Ukraine. 24 NATO, Declaration to Complement the Charter on a Distinctive Partnership. 25 Ibid. 26 NATO-Ukraine Commission, Annual National Programme.

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NATO-Ukraine Commission (NUC) The NUC is a body created by NATO dedicated to anything concerning the relationship of the Ukraine and NATO. The activities range from consultations regarding cooperation, to security topics. For example, a special meeting was held in the NUC regarding the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. The NUC also reviews Ukraine’s commitment and activities in the PfP program.27

The North Atlantic Cooperation Council (NACC) The NACC is a former council of NATO dedicated to creating and maintaining dialogues with Eastern European states, in particular the ex-Soviet states and former Warsaw Pact states. Founded after the Soviet Union dissolved, NATO invited the ex-Soviet states to participate. The aim of the council, or more accurately of the discussions held by the council, was to enhance and create peace in the former satellite states. With the dissolution of the USSR, the region faced varying instability, and at times even the potential of a war (Yugoslavia for example). This council was later replaced by the Euro- Atlantic Partnership Council in 1997 in order to include not only Eastern

European states, but also Western states and members of the alliance.28

Partnership for Peace (PfP) The Partnership for Peace program is a program dedicated to the establishment of peace and stability and increasing relationships and dialogues between NATO members and non-member countries in the Euro- Atlantic area. Joining the program offers states the opportunity of building a bilateral relationship with NATO and NATO member states and allows the states the flexibility of deciding their own priorities in terms of cooperation with the alliance.29

27 NATO, NATO-Ukraine Commission. 28 NATO, North Atlantic Cooperation Council (NACC). 29 NATO, Partnership for Peace Programme.

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Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP) Following the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, the NUC drew up the CAP which contains various steps and measures to support the Ukraine and make it more resistant to (in particular Russian) aggression. NATO will assist in various aspects, ranging from political (strengthening democratic institutions like the parliament), to military (assisting Ukraine’s defense strategies, training of officials with exercises and military operations), as well as topics such as Cyber Defense, Hybrid warfare, and more.30

Membership Action Plan (MAP) The MAP is a program designed by NATO to aid countries whose goal is becoming part of the security alliance. Currently Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republic of North Macedonia are members of the program, while other countries (particularly Eastern European countries) such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have demonstrated success of the program. Ukraine is not currently part of the program.31

30 NATO, Comprehensive Assistance Package for Ukraine. 31 NATO, Membership Action Plan (MAP).

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Timeline of Events

1955 - The Soviet Union and its eastern European satellites form the Warsaw Pact after West Germany formally joins NATO

2002 NOVEMBER - Seven countries invited to join alliance at a summit in Prague: Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.

2004 MARCH - Seven former Communist nations join NATO: Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia formally welcomed as new members

2009 APRIL - Albania and Croatia are formally inducted, increasing membership to 28.

2014 MARCH - The North Atlantic Council calls the annexation referendum held in Ukraine to be illegal and illegitimate and urges Russia to de-escalate by ceasing all military activities against Ukraine.

2014 DECEMBER - Ukraine cancels the neutrality status of Ukraine and announces that Ukraine will start a process to achieve the criteria needed for NATO membership

2019 JUNE - Ukraine President Zelensky reaffirms commitment to integrating to both EU and NATO during a visit to Brussels

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Discussion

Concerns regarding Russia While it seems that Ukraine and NATO have taken all steps necessary to ensure future membership for NATO, with the illegal annexation of Crimea, the question is not as simple anymore. Moreover, ever since the illegal annexation, NATO has suspended their relationship and dialogue with Russia. How exactly does Russia’s recent flare-up of aggression impact Ukraine’s accession to NATO?

The question here is whether adding the Ukraine as a member to NATO will strengthen or destabilise the region. Hence, questions on the severity of the Russian threat must be raised. Ever since the annexation of Crimea, tensions have been high between the two states, especially over the Donetsk region. Two years after the annexation, Russia claimed Ukraine to allegedly have committed acts of terrorism in Crimea. Furthermore, in 2016, Russia was said to be executing military exercises in Crimea and deploying S-400 air defence missiles there.32

32 BBC News, Ukraine crisis.

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Tensions between the two countries seem to be growing, with Ukraine in 2018 successfully managing to pass ships through from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov – demonstrating that Ukraine had not forgotten that the seas are to be treated as shared territory, according to treaties both Russia and Ukraine have signed.33 However, Russia seized Ukrainian ships that attempted to complete the same journey, claiming they had not asked for permission this time. Russia imprisoned the crew and denied their release to the Ukraine. This incident again shows that Russia is unwilling to reverse the annexation of Crimea, and that perhaps they are not so afraid of going to war with Ukraine after all. However, access to the Sea of Azov is of the utmost importance to Ukraine, as the sea serves as an important strategic and economic advantage.34

These incidents are all of great concern to Ukraine and even give rise to the question of a potential war between the two states. In fact, president- at-the-time Petro Poroshenko even went so far as to claim that there already is a war between Ukraine and Russia, it had simply been unnoticed up until Russia had seized the two boats, an act which Poroshenko claimed to be an “open act of aggression”.35 These acts of aggression thus give rise to two questions (a) How severe is the threat of Russia really, or more bluntly, how real is the threat of war? and (b) would the addition of Ukraine to NATO increase or decrease stability in the region or, one can ask conversely, will the addition of Ukraine lessen the likelihood of an outbreak of war?

33 Perrigo, Tensions Between Russia and Ukraine Are Flaring After a Sea Battle. 34 Kim, Why The Crisis Between Ukraine And Russia Has Taken To The Sea. 35 Ibid.

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Instability in the Region Ukraine, unfortunately, has not been singled out by Russia regarding Russia’s recent aggressive attitude and actions. Russia has been very active in other regions, such as the Baltic states, as well as states bordering the

Black Sea, such as Romania and Bulgaria.36 For example, Romania was one of the first countries to express their interest in having Ukraine join NATO after the illegal annexation.37 This shows that there is a general belief that adding Ukraine to NATO will potentially deter future aggressive acts by Russia. Countries such as Georgia and Moldova have also been victims of Russian aggression, with examples such as Russia illegally (and somewhat secretly) claiming the Georgian region of South Ossetia as theirs or Russia meddling in Moldovan politics in 2014.38 However, both Moldova and Georgia are currently not member states. The question thus remains somewhat open as to whether (for them too) NATO membership will increase or decrease stability in the region.

Interestingly enough, however, many scholars agree that it is unlikely that Russia will exert any aggression towards its former satellite states in the Baltic region – i.e. Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia – precisely because they are NATO members.39 Nonetheless, according to the newspaper Newsweek, statistics show that in the Baltic states, the majority of the population still fears a war with Russia.40 Nevertheless, the Baltic states do indicate a success in deterring Russian aggression, thus leaving the question open for the case of Ukraine. The threat of Russia thus seems to still be very real for most of the former USSR states. Therefore, Ukraine’s addition might be particularly of strategic interest in order to further deter Russian aggression.

36 NATO, Relations with Ukraine. 37 Solodkyy and Racheru, Ukraine and Romania – friends through a common enemy? 38 Otarashvili, Georgia and Moldova Remain Fragile as Russian Aggression Continues. 39 Bosoni, The Baltic Nations Look Abroad And See Problems. 40 Sharkov, Fearing Russia, Poland Boosts Army By 50 Percent.

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Article 5 of the Washington Treaty It is important for NATO to gauge whether the threat of war between Ukraine and Russia is likely to escalate. For if Ukraine does end up joining the security alliance and war breaks out, article 5 of the Washington Treaty can be invoked and member states will be requested to aid Ukraine in the war. Thus, adding a state that finds itself in a particularly precarious situation with the Ukraine at this point ought definitely to be discussed more in depth by the member states of NATO. Once Ukraine is a member, an attack on Ukraine will be considered an attack against all members of NATO. The worry of having a member state in the alliance that is at risk of war with Russia might be of greater importance than we think. For example, the USA has recently voiced its discontentment with NATO, claiming the US’ contributions to the alliance are disproportional to the rest. This raises the question as to whether, in the event of a war between Ukraine and Russia while Ukraine is a member of NATO, the US will be expected to carry a vast amount of the costs of war?

However, stepping away from the commitment NATO has given to Ukraine would be sending very wrong signals to Ukraine, and also possibly to its member states, as they might take it as an indication of NATO’s unwillingness to aid in times of urgency. After all, both NATO and Ukraine have expressed their intentions and commitment to making Ukraine a member of NATO in the future.

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Bloc Positions

France and Germany (Normandy Format’s EU Members) Following the recent leaks of a conversation between the Ukranian and American Presidents in which the former showed his interest in trading political favours for support against Russia, the EU’s foreign policy chiefs have redoubled their efforts to seek a negotiated end to the Ukraine hostilities.41 It is unclear for how long this new spirit of diplomatic spurring will last, or how deeply these pivotal nations will lean on their closest diplomatic allies to do the same.

Former Eastern Bloc Recent additions to the NATO alliance have differing views on Ukraine’s Accession but can be split into two groups, depending on which interest is most important: security or economic. The Baltic states, which are most at risk if the Russian tanks rolled Westwards, they prioritise the

41 Euronews, Conférence de presse conjointe d'Angela Merkel et Emmanuel Macron à Toulouse.

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security of the existing nations of NATO.42 However, many nations in the East (with the notable addition of the Netherlands) are still economically tied to Russia, and would be hesitant to act in such a manner that would enforce further sanctions, particularly Hungary.

Ukraine’s Backers Despite possible economic and security threats to themselves, some nations have still voluntarily (i.e. not part of a NATO-wide initiative) donated military aid to Ukraine. These include the U.S., Canada, Poland, Slovakia, the Baltics and the U.K. But, calls for other nations to donate military aid are met with concerns of raising tensions.43

42 Agenda, Russian FM Lavrov supports resumption of flights to Georgia as Georgians ‘realised consequences’ of June 20 43 Roach, Breaking Down the Complicated Relationship Between Russia and NATO.

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Conclusion To summarise, the question of Ukraine’s addition to the security alliance is not a simple one, in-spite of all the efforts NATO and Ukraine have taken to ensure future NATO membership.

Ukraine’s precarious relationship with Russia is perhaps the biggest obstacle standing in the way of Ukraine’s accession to NATO. For it is unknown as to whether Ukraine’s membership will further stir up aggression and destabilise the region, or whether it will in fact deter Russian aggression in the future, and increase stability. Taking a look at the previous ex-Soviet NATO member states cases might be helpful in answering this question. For example, it seems that the Baltic states show success in their addition to NATO, as Russian interference has since their membership decreased. Yet, NATO members must be aware that while their deliberations are between allied nations, there are far larger players to contend with which are not represented in the committee room.

Questions a Resolution should answer:

❖ What benefits will Ukraine’s membership bring to NATO?

❖ What are the next steps NATO & Ukraine must take to achieve NATO membership?

• What must NATO specifically ensure / which steps must NATO take?

• Which steps must Ukraine take?

• Which criteria must Ukraine fulfill in order to achieve membership?

❖ Suggested timeline for NATO membership:

• Will Ukraine’s membership to NATO now increase or decrease stability?

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• Might it be safer to consider membership in the future when the region has stabilised?

❖ Will Ukraine membership deter Russian aggression? Or will it facilitate it?