Opinion Poll Nairobi, Machakos and Kiambu Counties
August 2016
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4 Opinion Poll Nairobi County
August 2016
5 Study Objectives
The objectives of the study were as follows;
• To assess if residents feel that the county is moving in the right direction
• To identify the most popular candidates for the • Gubernatorial, • Senatorial and • Women Representative
6 Methodology
Dates 28th to 31st July 2016
Location Nairobi County
Sub-counties All the 16 sub–counties covered
Both males and females aged 18 - 60 years Target Registered as a voter
Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from Data households collection
Sample Size A total of 719 adults living in Nairobi
Margin of Error +/- 4%
Funding TIFA Research Funded the survey Nairobi County Analysis
8 County Direction
50%
40% 36% 33% 30% 23% 20%
10% 7%
0% Wrong direction Right direction Neither right nor wrong Don’t know/ not direction sure/refused
Q. Generally speaking do you think that Nairobi County as a whole is heading in the right or wrong direction?
10 Political Party Affiliation
11 Political Party Affiliation
Political Party Affiliation
50%
40% CORD COALITION - 38% JUBILEE COALITION - 38%
30% 25% 21% 19% 20% 14% 10% 10% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% JUBILEE ODM None CORD TNA WIPER Don’t URP PNU Others know Specify Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?
Base =719
12 Governor Candidates Popularity
13 Governor Preference – Nairobi
Jimnah Mbaru, Miguna Miguna, Ferdinand Waititu, and others
Base = 719
14 Governor Preference – Trend
Governance preference
April 2016 July 2016 50%
40% 36% 30% 30% 28% 28% 24% 20% 17%
9% 10% 7% 8% 3% 3% 3% 3% 0% 1% 1% 0% Evans Kidero Mike Sonko Undecided Anne Dennis Margaret Johnstone Others Waiguru Waweru Wanjiru Sakaja
15 Governor: By Age
Governor Preference by Age 100% 90% Evans Kidero Mike Sonko 80% 70% 60% 56% 50% 40% 36% 37% 30% 31% 30% 28% 30% 21% 20% 10% 0% Total 18-30 Yrs 31-45 Yrs 46+ Yrs
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Nairobi? Base = 719
16 Governor: By Gender
50% Male Female
40% 37% 35% 32% 30% 27%
20%
10%
0% Evans Kidero Mike Sonko
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Nairobi Base = 719
17 Governor: Reason for Choice
Reasons for choice
Evans Kidero Mike Sonko 100% 90% 79% 80% 70% 64% 62% 64% 60% 50% 40% 33% 30% 20% 20% 10% 0% A track record of good Brought development to Belongs to the political party I performance Nairobi support
Q. Why would you vote for…?
18 Why Support Kidero
“Good at representing “Contributes to churches wanainchi in case of “Contributes to churches” can offer more if given a disaster” second terms” 18-24 years 18-24 years 18-24 years
“He needs another term “He is good in terns of “Clean streets” so as to finish the projects development” he started” 25-30 years 18-24 years 25-30 years
19 Why Support Mike Sonko
“has helped the youth, “has a development “A man of the people under privileged not he is tracks which are very take part in a lot of humbled not relates to the crucial to the common community citizens well” mwanainchi” developments”
25-30 years 31-35 years 31-35 years
“He interact so much with the common mwanainchi “He understands the low and has a good track “Sonko rescue team” income earners welfare” record in terms of development” 25-30 years 25-30 years 40-45 years
20 Senator Candidates Popularity
21 Senator Preference – Nairobi
Senator Preference 50% 39% 40% 31% 30%
20% 13% 9% 10% 8%
0% Mike Sonko Undecided Elizabeth Ongoro Beth Mugo Others
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator of Nairobi
Base = 719
22 Senator Preference – Trend
Senator Preference
April 2016 July 2016 50% 41% 39% 40% 34% 31% 30%
20% 12% 13% 8% 9% 8% 10% 5%
0% Mike Sonko Undecided Elizabeth Ongoro Beth Mugo Others
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator of Nairobi
23 Governor: Reason for Choice
Reason for voting...
Mike Sonko Elizabeth Ongoro Beth Mugo
100% 90% 80% 73% 72% 71% 70% 60% 54% 48% 50% 47% 40% 40% 30% 19% 20% 10% 10% 0% Has helped brought development Has a track record of good Belongs to the political party I to Nairobi performance support
24 Women Representative Candidates Popularity
25 Women Rep. Preference – Nairobi
Women representative preference
50% 43% 40%
30% 28%
20% 20%
10% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 0% Undecided Esther Rachel Millicent Wangui B Karen Sylvia Others Pasaris Shebesh Omanga Nganga Nyamu Ming'ala
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative of Nairobi Base = 719
26 Women Rep Preference – Trend
Women rep preference
April 2016 July 2016 50% 43% 40% 36%
29%28% 30% 26% 20% 20% 10% 10% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 0% Undecided Esther Rachel Millicent Wangui B Karen Sylvia Others Pasaris Shebesh Omanga Nganga Nyamu Ming'ala
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative of Nairobi
27 Reasons For Choice
Reason for Voting...
Esther Pasaris Rachel Shebesh 100% 90% 80% 70% 70% 59% 60% 54% 54% 50% 40% 30% 20% 16% 8% 10% 0% Has helped brought development Has a track record of good Belongs to the political party I to Nairobi performance support
Q. Why would you vote for
28 Machakos County Opinion Poll
August 2016
29 Methodology
Dates 28th to 31st July 2016
Location Machakos County Only
Sub-counties All the 8 sub–counties covered
Target • Both males and females aged 18+ years • Registered as a voter
Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from Data households collection
Sample Size A total of 538 adults living in Machakos
Margin of Error +/- 4%
Funding TIFA Research Funded the survey County Direction
Status of Machakos County 100% 90% 80% 70% 66% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 20% 14% 10% 1% 0% Right direction Neither right nor Wrong direction Don’t know/ not wrong direction sure/refused
Q. Generally speaking do you think that Machakos County as a whole is heading in the right or wrong direction?
32 Political Party Affiliation
33 Political Party Affiliation
Political party affiliation
50% 42% 40% CORD COALITION - 56% JUBILEE COALITION - 15% 30% MAENDELEO CHAP CHAP – 15% UNDECIDED/NONE – 12% 20% 15% 11% 10% 7% 7% 5% 5% 3% 3% 1% 0% WIPER Maendelo ODM JUBILEE Undecided TNA None JAP CORD Others Chap Chap Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?
Base =538
34 Governor Candidates Popularity
35 Governor Preference – Machakos
Governor candidate preference 100% 90% 81% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 8% 10% 5% 3% 2% 1% 0% Alfred Mutua Johnstone Muthama Wavinya Ndeti Bernard Kiala Peter Mutuku Undecided Mathuki
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Machakos?
Base = 538
36 Governor Choice: Gender
Support Levels: Gender and Age
100% 89% 90% 84% 81% 79% 79% 80% 74% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Male Female 18-30 Yrs 31-45 Yrs 46+ Yrs Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Machakos?
Base = 538
37 Governor: Reason for Choice
Reasons for choice 100% 90% Alfred Mutua Johnstone Muthama 80% 70% 60% 49% 50% 45% 40% 32% 30% 20% 9% 10% 10% 7% 0% Has helped brought development Has a track record of good Belongs to the political party I to Machakos performance support Q. Why would you vote for….?
38 Why Support Mutua
“he loves development “to continue with his “to give him a second more than politics” projects that he chance to complete the promised” projects” 25-30 years 18-24 years 40-45 years
“He has brought “Because no one is good “have done good and ambulance for the enough to beat him, and new things” patience of Machakos” he has done many things for Machakos” 18-24 years 18-24 years 18-24 years
39 Senator Candidates Popularity
40 Senator Preference – Machakos
Senator candidate preference
50%
40% 35% 34%
30%
20% 13% 10% 7% 7% 4%
0% undecided Johnstone Wavinya Ndeti Boniface Carlos Kioko Other Muthama Mutinda Kabaka
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator of Machakos?
Base = 538
41 Reasons for voting for…
Reason for choice
100% Johnstone Muthama Wavinya Ndeti
90%
80% 70% 70%
60% 50% 50%
40% 36% 30% 22% 20% 17% 10% 10%
0% Has a track record of good Has helped brought development Belongs to the political party I performance to Machakos support
Q. Why would you vote for…?
42 Women Representative Candidates Popularity
43 Women Rep. Preference – Machakos
Women representative candidate preference
50% 44%
40% 36%
30%
20%
9% 10% 8% 3% 0% Undecided Dr Susan Musyoka Joyce Kameme Francisca Mutie Others Kasimi Q10.If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative of Machakos?
Base 538
44 Reasons for voting for…
Reasons for voting 100% Dr Susan Musyoka (195) Joyce Kameme Kasimi (46) 90% 80% 70% 66% 60% 57% 50% 46% 44% 40% 30% 19% 20% 17% 10% 0% Belongs to the political party I Has helped brought development Has a track record of good support to Machakos performance
Q. Why would you vote for
45 Kiambu County Opinion Poll Methodology
Dates 28th to 31st July 2016
Location Kiambu County
Sub-counties All the 12 sub–counties covered
Both males and females aged 18+ years Target Registered voters
Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from Data households collection
Sample Size 620
Margin of Error +/- 4%
Funding TIFA Research Funded the survey Kiambu County Opinion Poll
August 2016
48 Direction County is Heading
50%
40% 36% 34%
30% 26%
20%
10% 3% 0% Wrong direction Right direction Neither right nor wrong Don’t know/ not direction sure/refused
Q. Generally speaking do you think that Kiambu County as a whole is heading in the right or wrong direction?
50 Political Party Affiliation
51 Political Party Affiliation
Political party closest to 50%
JUBILEE COALITION - 81% 40% 35% CORD COALITION - 3% 30% UNDECIDED – 16% 23% 22% 20% 16%
10% 2% 1% 1% 0% JUBILEE JAP TNA Undecided ODM PNU CORD
Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?
Base = 620
52 Governor Candidates’ Popularity
53 Governor Preference – Kiambu
Governance Preference 49% 50%
40%
30% 22% 20% 18%
10% 8% 1% 1% 2% 0% Ferdinand William Undecided James Nyoro Eng Gakuru David Githii Others Waititu Kabogo Kanyingi
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Kiambu?
54 Kiambu Governor Preference: By Age
Governor preference: Age William Kabogo Ferdinand Waititu
50% 44% 40% 30% 30% 25% 24% 19% 20% 20%
10%
0% 18-30 Yrs 31-45 Yrs 46+ Yrs Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Kiambu?
55 Kiambu Governor Preference: By Gender
Male Female
40% 37% 36%
30% 25% 20% 20%
10%
0% William Kabogo Ferdinand Waititu
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Kiambu?
56 Reasons for voting for …
100% William Kabogo Ferdinand Waititu 90% 80% 70% 60% 57% 54% 48% 50% 40% 33% 30% 23% 18% 20% 10% 0% Has a track record of good Has helped brought development Belongs to the political party I performance to Kiambu support
Q. Why would you vote for….?
57 Why Support Waititu
“when he was in “We want to experiment “To test whether his Embakasi his work could with another person for a leadership can change be seen thus he is good change and he is our county” promising” suited best” 18-24 years 18-24 years 36-40 years
“if he is called in case of “he is not a dictator he is “I need anew leader for problems he is quick to open minded to peoples change” respond” opinion” 18-24 years 18-24 years 40-45 years
“He fought illegal brewing ,he builts roads, he helps the youths and disciplines people” 18-24 years
58 Why Support Kabogo
“he is a development “He needs to complete initiated person and he “He is the one who can his work” looks forward to helping bring change to Kiambu” his people” 36-40 years 31-35 years 36-40 years
“He doesn’t fear the “Has done a lot in terms threats he gets from rich “He cares for local of improving the county” people who are avoiding citizens” to pay tax return” 36-40 years 25-30 years 18-24 years
59 Senatorial Candidates’ Popularity
60 Senator Preference – Kiambu
Senator Preference
50% 46% 44%
40%
30%
20%
10% 3% 2% 1% 0% Undecided Kimani Wamatangi Stanley Githunguri George Nyanja Terry Kairu
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator of Kiambu?
61 Reasons for voting for …
Has a track record of good 61% performance
Kimani Wamtangi Has helped brought 42% development to Kiambu
Belongs to the political 22% party I support
Q. Why would you vote for
62 Women Representative Candidates’ Popularity
63 Women Rep. Preference – Kiambu
Women Representative Preference 100% 90% 80% 70% 62% 60% 50% 40% 28% 30% 20% 10% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Undecided Annah Ann Wahinga Angela Aquiline Njoki Caroline Catherine Nyokabi Kanini Katumbu Gathigira Wambui Wanjiru Gathecha Musili Nganga Ndungu
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative of Kiambu?
64 Reasons for voting for …
Annah Nyokabi Gathecha (172)
Has helped brought development 34% to Kiambu
Annah Nyokabi Has a track record of good 56% performance
Belongs to the political party I 21% support
Q. Why would you vote for
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