Opinion Poll , Machakos and Kiambu Counties

August 2016

1 About us

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4 Opinion Poll

August 2016

5 Study Objectives

The objectives of the study were as follows;

• To assess if residents feel that the county is moving in the right direction

• To identify the most popular candidates for the • Gubernatorial, • Senatorial and • Women Representative

6 Methodology

Dates 28th to 31st July 2016

Location Nairobi County

Sub-counties All the 16 sub–counties covered

Both males and females aged 18 - 60 years Target Registered as a voter

Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from Data households collection

Sample Size A total of 719 adults living in Nairobi

Margin of Error +/- 4%

Funding TIFA Research Funded the survey Nairobi County Analysis

8 County Direction

50%

40% 36% 33% 30% 23% 20%

10% 7%

0% Wrong direction Right direction Neither right nor wrong Don’t know/ not direction sure/refused

Q. Generally speaking do you think that Nairobi County as a whole is heading in the right or wrong direction?

10 Political Party Affiliation

11 Political Party Affiliation

Political Party Affiliation

50%

40% CORD COALITION - 38% JUBILEE COALITION - 38%

30% 25% 21% 19% 20% 14% 10% 10% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% JUBILEE ODM None CORD TNA WIPER Don’t URP PNU Others know Specify Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?

Base =719

12 Governor Candidates Popularity

13 Governor Preference – Nairobi

Jimnah Mbaru, Miguna Miguna, Ferdinand Waititu, and others

Base = 719

14 Governor Preference – Trend

Governance preference

April 2016 July 2016 50%

40% 36% 30% 30% 28% 28% 24% 20% 17%

9% 10% 7% 8% 3% 3% 3% 3% 0% 1% 1% 0% Undecided Anne Dennis Margaret Johnstone Others Waiguru Waweru Wanjiru Sakaja

15 Governor: By Age

Governor Preference by Age 100% 90% Evans Kidero Mike Sonko 80% 70% 60% 56% 50% 40% 36% 37% 30% 31% 30% 28% 30% 21% 20% 10% 0% Total 18-30 Yrs 31-45 Yrs 46+ Yrs

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Nairobi? Base = 719

16 Governor: By Gender

50% Male Female

40% 37% 35% 32% 30% 27%

20%

10%

0% Evans Kidero Mike Sonko

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Nairobi Base = 719

17 Governor: Reason for Choice

Reasons for choice

Evans Kidero Mike Sonko 100% 90% 79% 80% 70% 64% 62% 64% 60% 50% 40% 33% 30% 20% 20% 10% 0% A track record of good Brought development to Belongs to the political party I performance Nairobi support

Q. Why would you vote for…?

18 Why Support Kidero

“Good at representing “Contributes to churches wanainchi in case of “Contributes to churches” can offer more if given a disaster” second terms” 18-24 years 18-24 years 18-24 years

“He needs another term “He is good in terns of “Clean streets” so as to finish the projects development” he started” 25-30 years 18-24 years 25-30 years

19 Why Support Mike Sonko

“has helped the youth, “has a development “A man of the people under privileged not he is tracks which are very take part in a lot of humbled not relates to the crucial to the common community citizens well” mwanainchi” developments”

25-30 years 31-35 years 31-35 years

“He interact so much with the common mwanainchi “He understands the low and has a good track “Sonko rescue team” income earners welfare” record in terms of development” 25-30 years 25-30 years 40-45 years

20 Senator Candidates Popularity

21 Senator Preference – Nairobi

Senator Preference 50% 39% 40% 31% 30%

20% 13% 9% 10% 8%

0% Mike Sonko Undecided Elizabeth Ongoro Beth Mugo Others

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator of Nairobi

Base = 719

22 Senator Preference – Trend

Senator Preference

April 2016 July 2016 50% 41% 39% 40% 34% 31% 30%

20% 12% 13% 8% 9% 8% 10% 5%

0% Mike Sonko Undecided Elizabeth Ongoro Beth Mugo Others

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator of Nairobi

23 Governor: Reason for Choice

Reason for voting...

Mike Sonko Elizabeth Ongoro Beth Mugo

100% 90% 80% 73% 72% 71% 70% 60% 54% 48% 50% 47% 40% 40% 30% 19% 20% 10% 10% 0% Has helped brought development Has a track record of good Belongs to the political party I to Nairobi performance support

24 Women Representative Candidates Popularity

25 Women Rep. Preference – Nairobi

Women representative preference

50% 43% 40%

30% 28%

20% 20%

10% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 0% Undecided Esther Rachel Millicent Wangui B Karen Sylvia Others Pasaris Shebesh Omanga Nganga Nyamu Ming'ala

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative of Nairobi Base = 719

26 Women Rep Preference – Trend

Women rep preference

April 2016 July 2016 50% 43% 40% 36%

29%28% 30% 26% 20% 20% 10% 10% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 0% Undecided Esther Rachel Millicent Wangui B Karen Sylvia Others Pasaris Shebesh Omanga Nganga Nyamu Ming'ala

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative of Nairobi

27 Reasons For Choice

Reason for Voting...

Esther Pasaris Rachel Shebesh 100% 90% 80% 70% 70% 59% 60% 54% 54% 50% 40% 30% 20% 16% 8% 10% 0% Has helped brought development Has a track record of good Belongs to the political party I to Nairobi performance support

Q. Why would you vote for

28 Opinion Poll

August 2016

29 Methodology

Dates 28th to 31st July 2016

Location Machakos County Only

Sub-counties All the 8 sub–counties covered

Target • Both males and females aged 18+ years • Registered as a voter

Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from Data households collection

Sample Size A total of 538 adults living in Machakos

Margin of Error +/- 4%

Funding TIFA Research Funded the survey County Direction

Status of Machakos County 100% 90% 80% 70% 66% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 20% 14% 10% 1% 0% Right direction Neither right nor Wrong direction Don’t know/ not wrong direction sure/refused

Q. Generally speaking do you think that Machakos County as a whole is heading in the right or wrong direction?

32 Political Party Affiliation

33 Political Party Affiliation

Political party affiliation

50% 42% 40% CORD COALITION - 56% JUBILEE COALITION - 15% 30% MAENDELEO CHAP CHAP – 15% UNDECIDED/NONE – 12% 20% 15% 11% 10% 7% 7% 5% 5% 3% 3% 1% 0% WIPER Maendelo ODM JUBILEE Undecided TNA None JAP CORD Others Chap Chap Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?

Base =538

34 Governor Candidates Popularity

35 Governor Preference – Machakos

Governor candidate preference 100% 90% 81% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 8% 10% 5% 3% 2% 1% 0% Johnstone Muthama Bernard Kiala Peter Mutuku Undecided Mathuki

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Machakos?

Base = 538

36 Governor Choice: Gender

Support Levels: Gender and Age

100% 89% 90% 84% 81% 79% 79% 80% 74% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Male Female 18-30 Yrs 31-45 Yrs 46+ Yrs Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Machakos?

Base = 538

37 Governor: Reason for Choice

Reasons for choice 100% 90% Alfred Mutua Johnstone Muthama 80% 70% 60% 49% 50% 45% 40% 32% 30% 20% 9% 10% 10% 7% 0% Has helped brought development Has a track record of good Belongs to the political party I to Machakos performance support Q. Why would you vote for….?

38 Why Support Mutua

“he loves development “to continue with his “to give him a second more than politics” projects that he chance to complete the promised” projects” 25-30 years 18-24 years 40-45 years

“He has brought “Because no one is good “have done good and ambulance for the enough to beat him, and new things” patience of Machakos” he has done many things for Machakos” 18-24 years 18-24 years 18-24 years

39 Senator Candidates Popularity

40 Senator Preference – Machakos

Senator candidate preference

50%

40% 35% 34%

30%

20% 13% 10% 7% 7% 4%

0% undecided Johnstone Wavinya Ndeti Boniface Carlos Kioko Other Muthama Mutinda Kabaka

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator of Machakos?

Base = 538

41 Reasons for voting for…

Reason for choice

100% Johnstone Muthama Wavinya Ndeti

90%

80% 70% 70%

60% 50% 50%

40% 36% 30% 22% 20% 17% 10% 10%

0% Has a track record of good Has helped brought development Belongs to the political party I performance to Machakos support

Q. Why would you vote for…?

42 Women Representative Candidates Popularity

43 Women Rep. Preference – Machakos

Women representative candidate preference

50% 44%

40% 36%

30%

20%

9% 10% 8% 3% 0% Undecided Dr Susan Musyoka Joyce Kameme Francisca Mutie Others Kasimi Q10.If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative of Machakos?

Base 538

44 Reasons for voting for…

Reasons for voting 100% Dr Susan Musyoka (195) Joyce Kameme Kasimi (46) 90% 80% 70% 66% 60% 57% 50% 46% 44% 40% 30% 19% 20% 17% 10% 0% Belongs to the political party I Has helped brought development Has a track record of good support to Machakos performance

Q. Why would you vote for

45 Kiambu County Opinion Poll Methodology

Dates 28th to 31st July 2016

Location Kiambu County

Sub-counties All the 12 sub–counties covered

Both males and females aged 18+ years Target Registered voters

Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from Data households collection

Sample Size 620

Margin of Error +/- 4%

Funding TIFA Research Funded the survey Kiambu County Opinion Poll

August 2016

48 Direction County is Heading

50%

40% 36% 34%

30% 26%

20%

10% 3% 0% Wrong direction Right direction Neither right nor wrong Don’t know/ not direction sure/refused

Q. Generally speaking do you think that Kiambu County as a whole is heading in the right or wrong direction?

50 Political Party Affiliation

51 Political Party Affiliation

Political party closest to 50%

JUBILEE COALITION - 81% 40% 35% CORD COALITION - 3% 30% UNDECIDED – 16% 23% 22% 20% 16%

10% 2% 1% 1% 0% JUBILEE JAP TNA Undecided ODM PNU CORD

Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?

Base = 620

52 Governor Candidates’ Popularity

53 Governor Preference – Kiambu

Governance Preference 49% 50%

40%

30% 22% 20% 18%

10% 8% 1% 1% 2% 0% Ferdinand William Undecided James Nyoro Eng Gakuru David Githii Others Waititu Kabogo Kanyingi

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Kiambu?

54 Kiambu Governor Preference: By Age

Governor preference: Age William Kabogo Ferdinand Waititu

50% 44% 40% 30% 30% 25% 24% 19% 20% 20%

10%

0% 18-30 Yrs 31-45 Yrs 46+ Yrs Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Kiambu?

55 Kiambu Governor Preference: By Gender

Male Female

40% 37% 36%

30% 25% 20% 20%

10%

0% William Kabogo Ferdinand Waititu

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Kiambu?

56 Reasons for voting for …

100% William Kabogo Ferdinand Waititu 90% 80% 70% 60% 57% 54% 48% 50% 40% 33% 30% 23% 18% 20% 10% 0% Has a track record of good Has helped brought development Belongs to the political party I performance to Kiambu support

Q. Why would you vote for….?

57 Why Support Waititu

“when he was in “We want to experiment “To test whether his Embakasi his work could with another person for a leadership can change be seen thus he is good change and he is our county” promising” suited best” 18-24 years 18-24 years 36-40 years

“if he is called in case of “he is not a dictator he is “I need anew leader for problems he is quick to open minded to peoples change” respond” opinion” 18-24 years 18-24 years 40-45 years

“He fought illegal brewing ,he builts roads, he helps the youths and disciplines people” 18-24 years

58 Why Support Kabogo

“he is a development “He needs to complete initiated person and he “He is the one who can his work” looks forward to helping bring change to Kiambu” his people” 36-40 years 31-35 years 36-40 years

“He doesn’t fear the “Has done a lot in terms threats he gets from rich “He cares for local of improving the county” people who are avoiding citizens” to pay tax return” 36-40 years 25-30 years 18-24 years

59 Senatorial Candidates’ Popularity

60 Senator Preference – Kiambu

Senator Preference

50% 46% 44%

40%

30%

20%

10% 3% 2% 1% 0% Undecided Kimani Wamatangi Stanley Githunguri George Nyanja Terry Kairu

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator of Kiambu?

61 Reasons for voting for …

Has a track record of good 61% performance

Kimani Wamtangi Has helped brought 42% development to Kiambu

Belongs to the political 22% party I support

Q. Why would you vote for

62 Women Representative Candidates’ Popularity

63 Women Rep. Preference – Kiambu

Women Representative Preference 100% 90% 80% 70% 62% 60% 50% 40% 28% 30% 20% 10% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Undecided Annah Ann Wahinga Angela Aquiline Njoki Caroline Catherine Nyokabi Kanini Katumbu Gathigira Wambui Wanjiru Gathecha Musili Nganga Ndungu

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative of Kiambu?

64 Reasons for voting for …

Annah Nyokabi Gathecha (172)

Has helped brought development 34% to Kiambu

Annah Nyokabi Has a track record of good 56% performance

Belongs to the political party I 21% support

Q. Why would you vote for

65 Maggie Ireri Director [email protected]

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