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NATIONAL POLL Report July 2020

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NATIONAL POLL Report July 2020 National Opinion Poll Survey Report July 2020 Contents 01 Survey Objectives 02 Methodology Overview 03 Demographics 04 Key Findings 2 Survey Objectives The study sought to establish the following ; – MOST pressing issues among Kenyans – Political party preference; – Presidential candidate preference – Best working Governor; – Governor would you vote for to be President – Support for Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) 3 Methodology Overview Data collection dates : 10th July to 15th July 2020 Location All counties in Kenya Data collection methodology : Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from households Target respondents : Kenyan Citizens Both males and females aged 18+ years Sample size : 4,224 respondents Margin of error +/- 2% 95% confidence level 4 Region County Sample North Eastern Garissa 69 Covered Counties Mandera 55 Wajir 45 North Eastern Total 169 Region County Sample Nyanza Homabay 73 Central Kiambu 256 Kisii 122 Kirinyaga 79 Kisumu 99 Muranga 94 Migori 91 Nyamira 53 Nyandarua 60 Siaya 81 Nyeri 77 Nyanza Total 519 Central Total 566 Riftvalley Baringo 54 Coast Kilifi 103 Bomet 73 Kwale 71 Elgeyo-Marakwet 39 Lamu 12 Kajiado 94 Mombasa 118 Kericho 93 Taita-Taveta 42 Laikipia 48 Nakuru 188 Tana River 20 Nandi 74 Coast Total 366 Narok 86 Eastern Embu 60 Samburu 16 Isiolo 21 Trans-Nzoia 79 Kitui 96 Turkana 56 Machakos 192 Uasin Gishu 102 Makueni 95 West Pokot 21 Marsabit 37 Riftvalley Total 1023 Meru 160 Western Bungoma 132 Busia 81 Tharaka Nithi 42 Kakamega 152 Eastern Total 703 Vihiga 58 Nairobi Nairobi 455 Western Total 423 Nairobi Total 455 Grand Total 4224 5 Demographics Age Regions 55+ years 4% Education Level 50% 40% Refused to answer 2% 51 – 55 years 3% 30% 24% 17% 20% 9% 13% 10% 12% 11% 10% 4% Graduate and above 13% 0% 46-50 years 4% College 25% 40 – 45 years 9% Competed secondary 31% 36 – 40 years 13% Gender Some secondary 9% 31 – 35 years 19% Completed primary Female 12% 41% 25 – 30 years 30% Male Some primary 7% 59% 18-24 years 18% 0% 10%20%30%40%50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Base = 4224 respondents 6 Most Pressing Problems - Overall ❑ Unemployment, Corruption and High cost of living are the top most pressing issues among Kenyans Most pressing Problems Unemployment/Lack of job opportunities 66% Corruption 58% High cost of living 48% Poor roads 23% Poor health care 22% Food insecurity 21% Poverty/Rich-Poor gap 18% Water shortage 15% Security: Increased crime 10% Poor quality education 8% Inequality in youth rights 5% Drought 5% Gender Inequality 4% Devolution 4% Ethnic tension 4% Land issues (title deeds) 4% Security: terrorism 4% Poor maternal and reproductive health care 4% Inequality for the marginalized groups 3% Inequality for the disabled 2% Foreign relations 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Base = 4224 respondents Q. What are the THREE MOST pressing problems facing this country that the elected leaders should address? 7 Most Pressing Problems – By Region Problem TOTAL Coast North Eastern Eastern Central Riftvalley Western Nyanza Nairobi Unemployment/Lack of job opportunities 66% 63% 60% 63% 60% 68% 57% 73% 79% Corruption 58% 36% 69% 61% 57% 61% 54% 57% 64% High cost of living 48% 46% 44% 41% 50% 47% 44% 62% 50% Poor roads 23% 22% 46% 30% 26% 23% 21% 18% 8% Poor health care 22% 18% 41% 23% 24% 22% 24% 23% 12% Food insecurity 21% 20% 21% 20% 21% 24% 17% 22% 15% Poverty/Rich-Poor gap 18% 14% 9% 10% 19% 15% 28% 32% 16% Water shortage 15% 25% 32% 26% 11% 9% 6% 14% 15% Security: Increased crime 10% 12% 18% 7% 7% 10% 11% 13% 8% Poor quality education 8% 6% 23% 4% 7% 8% 8% 17% 3% Drought 5% 3% 34% 5% 3% 6% 1% 3% 1% Inequality in youth rights 5% 4% 3% 6% 3% 4% 1% 10% 1% Poor maternal and reproductive health care 4% 1% 14% 3% 2% 5% 2% 6% 3% Security: terrorism 4% 2% 37% 2% 1% 3% 1% 6% 1% Land issues (title deeds) 4% 4% 2% 4% 5% 4% 2% 8% 4% Ethnic tension 4% 2% 14% 5% 4% 2% 5% 6% 2% Devolution 4% 5% 10% 2% 3% 4% 5% 4% 2% Gender Inequality 4% 2% 18% 3% 3% 3% 2% 9% 1% Inequality for the marginalized groups 3% 5% 4% 1% 2% 2% 3% 10% 1% Inequality for the disabled 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 10% 1% Foreign relations 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 3% 0% Q. What are the THREE MOST pressing problems facing this country that the elected leaders should address? 8 Most Pressing Problems – By Gender & Age Problem Total Male Female 18-24 years 25 – 30 years 31 – 35 years 36 – 40 years 40 – 45 years 46-50 years 51 – 55 years 55+ years Unemployment/Lack of job 66% 68% 64% 71% 71% 70% 63% 57% 57% 53% 42% opportunities Corruption 58% 60% 55% 58% 60% 59% 60% 58% 46% 46% 44% High cost of living 48% 46% 51% 42% 47% 49% 54% 51% 55% 53% 45% Poor roads 23% 24% 22% 21% 22% 22% 27% 22% 25% 25% 28% Poor health care 22% 22% 23% 20% 21% 22% 23% 25% 20% 23% 35% Food insecurity 21% 20% 22% 16% 18% 23% 23% 23% 24% 19% 30% Poverty/Rich-Poor gap 18% 17% 19% 17% 17% 16% 18% 19% 22% 33% 21% Water shortage 15% 16% 15% 15% 14% 15% 16% 13% 17% 22% 24% Security: Increased crime 10% 10% 9% 12% 10% 9% 8% 9% 12% 8% 6% Poor quality education 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 10% 11% 12% 4% Drought 5% 5% 4% 6% 5% 4% 5% 4% 10% 3% 4% Inequality in youth rights 5% 5% 4% 6% 6% 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% 2% Poor maternal and reprodu 4% 3% 5% 4% 4% 3% 5% 5% 5% 3% 2% ctive health care Security: terrorism 4% 4% 3% 5% 3% 3% 4% 5% 6% 1% 0% Land issues (title deeds) 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 5% 3% 7% 8% 6% 5% Ethnic tension 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 6% 3% 10% 1% Devolution 4% 5% 2% 2% 4% 4% 5% 4% 7% 5% 1% Gender Inequality 4% 3% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 0% Inequality for the marginali 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 8% 3% zed groups Inequality for the disabled 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 4% 4% 7% 1% Base = 4224 respondents ForeignQ. What relations are the THREE MOST pressing1% problems1% facing this1% country that the1% elected leaders1% should address? 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 0% 9 Political Party Popularity ❑ Jubilee party is the most popular party Political party close to 50% 45% 42% 40% 35% 30% 25% 25% 20% 15% 13% 10% 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% Jubilee ODM None NASA Wiper Maendeleo ANC KANU Ford Kenya Jubilee Asili Dont Know chap Base = 4224 respondents Q. Which political party do you feel closest to? 10 Political PartyPopularity 100% Q. Which political party do you feel closest to? closest feel you do party politicalQ. Which 80% 90% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 42% 25% 13% Total 5% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% Jubilee 40% 27% 14% Coast 5% 2% 1% ODM 1% 1% 2% 3% None 49% North Eastern North 28% 7% 2% 3% NASA 1% 2% 4% 1% 3% Wiper 44% 24% 13% Eastern 4% 6% chap Maendeleo 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 40% 28% 11% Central 5% 4% 3% ANC 2% 1% - 4% KANU 43% By Region 25% Riftvalley 14% 4% 4% Kenya Ford 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 39% 23% 13% Asili Jubilee Western 6% 4% 1% 3% 2% 3% 3% Know Dont 39% 28% 13% Nyanza 5% 4% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% 43% 25% 13% Nairobi 5% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 11 3% Political Party Popularity- By Gender & Age ❑ Jubilee party is the most popular party Political Party support 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Male Female 18-24 years 25 – 30 years 31 – 35 years 36 – 40 years 40 – 45 years 46-50 years 51 – 55 years 55+ years Jubilee 42% 42% 41% 40% 43% 45% 40% 41% 45% 38% 39% ODM 25% 25% 26% 27% 25% 24% 27% 27% 25% 28% 24% NASA 5% 5% 5% 6% 4% 5% 4% 4% 2% 9% 5% Wiper 4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 4% 5% 2% 6% 4% 3% Maendeleo chap 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% ANC 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% KANU 2% 2% 1% 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% 2% Ford Kenya 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% Jubilee Asili 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% None 13% 12% 13% 12% 13% 13% 14% 15% 10% 8% 14% Dont Know 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% Q. Which political party do you feel closest to? 12 2022 Presidential Popularity For the true reflection of the view by Kenyans, we asked respondents two questions: ✓ Who will you vote for in 2022 and. ✓ Apart from your main choice, who else Would you vote for? A combination of the results provide a better perspective of who is who and an accurate ranking of who Kenyans are choosing.” 2022 Presidential Popularity ➢ William Ruto continues to be the front runner with Raila Odinga following him. A Governor and one who has not run before, Alfred Mutua, appears to be gaining popularity.
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