Opinion Poll Nairobi, Machakos and Kiambu Counties August 2016 1 About us Our Passion Is Research Full service research company Market research Social research Opinion Polling Sports Research TIFA’s Membership TIFA Got it Right in Malindi 4 Opinion Poll Nairobi County August 2016 5 Study Objectives The objectives of the study were as follows; • To assess if residents feel that the county is moving in the right direction • To identify the most popular candidates for the • Gubernatorial, • Senatorial and • Women Representative 6 Methodology Dates 28th to 31st July 2016 Location Nairobi County Sub-counties All the 16 sub–counties covered Both males and females aged 18 - 60 years Target Registered as a voter Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from Data households collection Sample Size A total of 719 adults living in Nairobi Margin of Error +/- 4% Funding TIFA Research Funded the survey Nairobi County Analysis 8 County Direction 50% 40% 36% 33% 30% 23% 20% 10% 7% 0% Wrong direction Right direction Neither right nor wrong Don’t know/ not direction sure/refused Q. Generally speaking do you think that Nairobi County as a whole is heading in the right or wrong direction? 10 Political Party Affiliation 11 Political Party Affiliation Political Party Affiliation 50% 40% CORD COALITION - 38% JUBILEE COALITION - 38% 30% 25% 21% 19% 20% 14% 10% 10% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% JUBILEE ODM None CORD TNA WIPER Don’t URP PNU Others know Specify Q. Which political party do you feel closest to? Base =719 12 Governor Candidates Popularity 13 Governor Preference – Nairobi Jimnah Mbaru, Miguna Miguna, Ferdinand Waititu, and others Base = 719 14 Governor Preference – Trend Governance preference April 2016 July 2016 50% 40% 36% 30% 30% 28% 28% 24% 20% 17% 9% 10% 7% 8% 3% 3% 3% 3% 0% 1% 1% 0% Evans Kidero Mike Sonko Undecided Anne Dennis Margaret Johnstone Others Waiguru Waweru Wanjiru Sakaja 15 Governor: By Age Governor Preference by Age 100% 90% Evans Kidero Mike Sonko 80% 70% 60% 56% 50% 40% 36% 37% 30% 31% 30% 28% 30% 21% 20% 10% 0% Total 18-30 Yrs 31-45 Yrs 46+ Yrs Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Nairobi? Base = 719 16 Governor: By Gender 50% Male Female 40% 37% 35% 32% 30% 27% 20% 10% 0% Evans Kidero Mike Sonko Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Nairobi Base = 719 17 Governor: Reason for Choice Reasons for choice Evans Kidero Mike Sonko 100% 90% 79% 80% 70% 64% 62% 64% 60% 50% 40% 33% 30% 20% 20% 10% 0% A track record of good Brought development to Belongs to the political party I performance Nairobi support Q. Why would you vote for…? 18 Why Support Kidero “Good at representing “Contributes to churches wanainchi in case of “Contributes to churches” can offer more if given a disaster” second terms” 18-24 years 18-24 years 18-24 years “He needs another term “He is good in terns of “Clean streets” so as to finish the projects development” he started” 25-30 years 18-24 years 25-30 years 19 Why Support Mike Sonko “has helped the youth, “has a development “A man of the people under privileged not he is tracks which are very take part in a lot of humbled not relates to the crucial to the common community citizens well” mwanainchi” developments” 25-30 years 31-35 years 31-35 years “He interact so much with the common mwanainchi “He understands the low and has a good track “Sonko rescue team” income earners welfare” record in terms of development” 25-30 years 25-30 years 40-45 years 20 Senator Candidates Popularity 21 Senator Preference – Nairobi Senator Preference 50% 39% 40% 31% 30% 20% 13% 9% 10% 8% 0% Mike Sonko Undecided Elizabeth Ongoro Beth Mugo Others Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator of Nairobi Base = 719 22 Senator Preference – Trend Senator Preference April 2016 July 2016 50% 41% 39% 40% 34% 31% 30% 20% 12% 13% 8% 9% 8% 10% 5% 0% Mike Sonko Undecided Elizabeth Ongoro Beth Mugo Others Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator of Nairobi 23 Governor: Reason for Choice Reason for voting... Mike Sonko Elizabeth Ongoro Beth Mugo 100% 90% 80% 73% 72% 71% 70% 60% 54% 48% 50% 47% 40% 40% 30% 19% 20% 10% 10% 0% Has helped brought development Has a track record of good Belongs to the political party I to Nairobi performance support 24 Women Representative Candidates Popularity 25 Women Rep. Preference – Nairobi Women representative preference 50% 43% 40% 30% 28% 20% 20% 10% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 0% Undecided Esther Rachel Millicent Wangui B Karen Sylvia Others Pasaris Shebesh Omanga Nganga Nyamu Ming'ala Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative of Nairobi Base = 719 26 Women Rep Preference – Trend Women rep preference April 2016 July 2016 50% 43% 40% 36% 29%28% 30% 26% 20% 20% 10% 10% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 0% Undecided Esther Rachel Millicent Wangui B Karen Sylvia Others Pasaris Shebesh Omanga Nganga Nyamu Ming'ala Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative of Nairobi 27 Reasons For Choice Reason for Voting... Esther Pasaris Rachel Shebesh 100% 90% 80% 70% 70% 59% 60% 54% 54% 50% 40% 30% 20% 16% 8% 10% 0% Has helped brought development Has a track record of good Belongs to the political party I to Nairobi performance support Q. Why would you vote for 28 Machakos County Opinion Poll August 2016 29 Methodology Dates 28th to 31st July 2016 Location Machakos County Only Sub-counties All the 8 sub–counties covered Target • Both males and females aged 18+ years • Registered as a voter Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from Data households collection Sample Size A total of 538 adults living in Machakos Margin of Error +/- 4% Funding TIFA Research Funded the survey County Direction Status of Machakos County 100% 90% 80% 70% 66% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 20% 14% 10% 1% 0% Right direction Neither right nor Wrong direction Don’t know/ not wrong direction sure/refused Q. Generally speaking do you think that Machakos County as a whole is heading in the right or wrong direction? 32 Political Party Affiliation 33 Political Party Affiliation Political party affiliation 50% 42% 40% CORD COALITION - 56% JUBILEE COALITION - 15% 30% MAENDELEO CHAP CHAP – 15% UNDECIDED/NONE – 12% 20% 15% 11% 10% 7% 7% 5% 5% 3% 3% 1% 0% WIPER Maendelo ODM JUBILEE Undecided TNA None JAP CORD Others Chap Chap Q. Which political party do you feel closest to? Base =538 34 Governor Candidates Popularity 35 Governor Preference – Machakos Governor candidate preference 100% 90% 81% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 8% 10% 5% 3% 2% 1% 0% Alfred Mutua Johnstone Muthama Wavinya Ndeti Bernard Kiala Peter Mutuku Undecided Mathuki Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Machakos? Base = 538 36 Governor Choice: Gender Support Levels: Gender and Age 100% 89% 90% 84% 81% 79% 79% 80% 74% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Male Female 18-30 Yrs 31-45 Yrs 46+ Yrs Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Machakos? Base = 538 37 Governor: Reason for Choice Reasons for choice 100% 90% Alfred Mutua Johnstone Muthama 80% 70% 60% 49% 50% 45% 40% 32% 30% 20% 9% 10% 10% 7% 0% Has helped brought development Has a track record of good Belongs to the political party I to Machakos performance support Q. Why would you vote for….? 38 Why Support Mutua “he loves development “to continue with his “to give him a second more than politics” projects that he chance to complete the promised” projects” 25-30 years 18-24 years 40-45 years “He has brought “Because no one is good “have done good and ambulance for the enough to beat him, and new things” patience of Machakos” he has done many things for Machakos” 18-24 years 18-24 years 18-24 years 39 Senator Candidates Popularity 40 Senator Preference – Machakos Senator candidate preference 50% 40% 35% 34% 30% 20% 13% 10% 7% 7% 4% 0% undecided Johnstone Wavinya Ndeti Boniface Carlos Kioko Other Muthama Mutinda Kabaka Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator of Machakos? Base = 538 41 Reasons for voting for… Reason for choice 100% Johnstone Muthama Wavinya Ndeti 90% 80% 70% 70% 60% 50% 50% 40% 36% 30% 22% 20% 17% 10% 10% 0% Has a track record of good Has helped brought development Belongs to the political party I performance to Machakos support Q. Why would you vote for…? 42 Women Representative Candidates Popularity 43 Women Rep. Preference – Machakos Women representative candidate preference 50% 44% 40% 36% 30% 20% 9% 10% 8% 3% 0% Undecided Dr Susan Musyoka Joyce Kameme Francisca Mutie Others Kasimi Q10.If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative of Machakos? Base 538 44 Reasons for voting for… Reasons for voting 100% Dr Susan Musyoka (195) Joyce Kameme Kasimi (46) 90% 80% 70% 66% 60% 57% 50% 46% 44% 40% 30% 19% 20% 17% 10% 0% Belongs to the political party I Has helped brought development Has a track record of good support to Machakos performance Q.