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A Climate for Change

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A Climate for Change HumanHuman Development Development Report Report - Croatia 2008 1 Croatia 2008 A Climate for Change Climate change and its impacts on society and economy in Croatia United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is the UN’s global development network, advocating for change and connecting countries to knowledge, experience and resources to help people build a better life. We are on the ground in 166 countries, working with them on their own solutions to global and national development challenges. As they develop local capacity, they draw on the people of UNDP and our wide range of partners. Short extracts from this publication may be reproduced unaltered without authorisation, on condition that the source is indicated. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of UNDP. Copyright © 2008 By the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Croatia, Radnička cesta 41/8, 10000 Zagreb, Hrvatska Editors (in alphabetical order): Seth Landau, Susan Legro, Sandra Vlašić Authors (in alphabetical order): Branković, Čedo – Croatian climate (Ch 3); Bray, John – Public opinion (Ch 2); Callaway, John – Vulnerability assessment (Ch 4 – 11); Dulčić, Jakov – Vulnerability in fisheries/ mariculture (Ch 8); Gajić-Čapka, Marjana – Croatian climate (Ch 3); Glamuzina, Branko – Vulnerability in fisheries/ mariculture (Ch 8); Heim, Inge – Health impacts (Ch 9); Japec, Lidija – Vulnerable groups (Ch 10); Kalinski, Vladimir – Croatian climate (Ch 3); Vulnerability in tourism (Ch 6); Vulnerability in the coastal zone (Ch 7); Landau, Seth – General coordination, Mitigation costs (Ch 12), Mitigation activities (Ch 13); Legro, Susan – Team Leader, Vulnerable groups (Ch 10), Conclusions (Ch 14); OIKON Ltd. Institute for Applied Ecology – Vulnerability in the coastal zone (Ch 7); Ortl, Friderik – Statistical annex; Patarčić, Mirta – Croatian climate (Ch 3); Srnec, Lidija – Croatian climate (Ch 3); Šimleša, Dražen – Public opinion (Ch 2); Zaninović, Ksenija – Croatian climate (Ch 3); Health impacts (Ch 9); Znaor, Darko – Vulnerability in agriculture (Ch 4); Vulnerability in water (Ch 5); Mitigation costs (Ch 12) Peer reviewers (in alphabetical order): Lay Vladimir, Levina Ellina, Markandya Anil, Strukova Elena Translation into English: Kuzmanović, Tomislav; Stipac, Martina Proofreading (English): Bray, Tara Proofreading (Croatian): Kuzmanović, Tomislav Cover and design: Kraljević, Krešimir Print: Tiskara Zelina d.d. Printed in Zagreb, Croatia First edition 2009 ISSN: 1332-3989 This publication is printed on paper produced from 100% recycled fibres. Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Foreword 3 FOREWORD Dear Reader, I have great pleasure in presenting to you one of the first UNDP National Human Development Reports concern- ing the most prominent challenge of our time – climate change and its impact on our society and economy. It is a breakthrough report for Croatia and the first of its kind following the new analysis released by the Interna- tional Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). More reports from other countries will follow in the coming years and will highlight the vulnerability of individual countries and the issues that the South and Central European region face because of climate change. Climate change is not only about polar bears and glaciers and it does not happen just because somebody else is burning more fossil fuel than we are, meaning that they should act first and we can follow later. It is not only about complying with the Kyoto Protocol or new European Union targets. It has far more to do with the qual- ity of life and with the choices of every Croatian citizen. Its impacts will be felt in Croatia even though Croatia’s greenhouse gas emissions account for only about 0.1% of global emissions. The impacts of climate change bring significant risks for the future and perhaps some opportunities for each of us. We have a responsibility to do something about it, to manage that risk and to mitigate the damage in the most effective way. It is a scientifically proven fact, recognised by a Nobel Prize last year, that the climate is changing and humans are at least in part responsible. It is obvious that the consequences of that change and of climate variability are already being felt all over the globe. Croatia is not an exception. With this Report, we have accounted for and quantified the damages in several sectors of the Croatian economy over the past several years as a result of climate variability. Agriculture, fisheries, health, hydropower, tourism and the coastal zone - the sectors we have analysed - represent 25% of the Croatian economy, employ almost half the working population and represent a total annual GDP of 9 billion Euro. Because climate change is such a broad-based and multi-sectoral issue, the Government, business and civil society will need to be engaged in the discussion on what Croatia does to address it. Our aim is to inform those involved in this discussion, to break the silence and to illustrate the linkages between climate change and hu- man development, ranging from health impacts to economic damage. The potential exists to influence new thinking about adaptation and mitigation of climate effects in Croatia. First, agriculture and coastal tourism are important to the economy. Both sectors are vulnerable to climate change and low-income Croatians in these sectors would be more vulnerable to the negative effects and to the rising costs of adapting to them. Second, the country is at a crossroads: emissions of greenhouse gases have rebounded to 1990 levels and are increasing. While Croatia is on target to meet its obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol (with its promised 5% reduction from 1990 levels), it will need to pursue emissions reductions measures in the post-Kyoto period. This is especially true given the EU-wide target of a 20% cut in emissions from 1990 levels by 2020. How the Government chooses to reduce emissions will affect the economy as a whole. 4 Foreword Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Both the Government and citizens are concerned and interested in the climate change issue. The Government is already pursuing several strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thus allowing the Human Develop- ment Report to focus on identifying key gaps and to provide specific recommendations on “climate-proofing” human development strategies. In addition, the Report can help to address public concerns: in a recent survey, 8 out of 10 Croatians felt that climate change was really happening, and of that group, 4 out of 10 thought it worse than experts were saying. While this Report is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change, it does reflect the breadth and depth of research that has been done in many sectors to date, and it provides a link between a global phenomenon and the everyday human development issues facing Croatia. The research and analysis in this Human Development Report indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to human devel- opment in Croatia, it also has the potential to bring several beneficial opportunities. The “climate for change” that currently exists in Croatia will provide the country with the motivation it needs to rise to the challenge. Yuri Afanasiev Resident Representative UNDP Croatia Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Acknowledgements 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This Report could not have been prepared without the kind and valuable contribution of the many individu- als and organisations listed below. Many other individuals contributed to the Report either directly through background papers, comments on draft text, discussions, or indirectly through their research. Many colleagues within UNDP Croatia and the global UNDP system were generous in sharing their time, expertise, ideas and re- sources. We are particularly grateful to BRC and BDP for their financial support for the preparation of this Report. The National Human Development Report team received valuable guidance and helpful advice from the UNDP Resident Representative, Yuri Afanasiev and Deputy Resident Representative, Alessandro Fracassetti. We thank all those involved directly or indirectly in guiding our efforts, while acknowledging sole responsibility for errors of omission and commission. Contributors AUDEO – polling company; Bjelica, Aleksandar; Berlengi, Gojko; Bukovec, Dragan; Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; CROME- TEO; Ćurić, Ante; Dejanović, Jasminka; Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia (DHMZ); Filipović, Mira; GfK in Croatia; Grbec, Branka; Grgasović, Višnja; Hatić, Dalibor; Institute for Physical Planning (MEPPPC); Jelavić, Vladimir; JRC – PESETA Project; Kaić-Rak, Antoinette; Kušan, Vladimir; Maddison, David; Morović, Mira; Ozimec, Siniša; Papa-Stubbs, Jasmina; Pisak, Ana; Radović, Jasminka; Raguzin, Igor; Schneider, Daniel Rolf; Singer, Davorin; Sišul-Jurković, Sanja; Skalsky, Rastislav; State Geodetical Directorate; Šenčar, Damir; Tomašić, Krešimir; Trninić, Boris; Trošelj Stanišić, Sandra; Vešligaj, Davor; Vlahović, Tatjana; Vranaričić, Marijo; Vučetić, Višnja Those who provided comments, literature, and members of the Advisory Panel Afanasiev, Yuri; Alerić Ivana; Alexandrov, Vesselin; Antolić, Jasmina; Arlović, Branka; Barić, Ante; Belošević, Blan- ka; Borzić, Jasna; Bostjančić, Iris; Brdar, Fran; Bruci, Eglantina; Čačić, Ivan; Ćurko, Tonko; Došen, Melita; Fadljević, Dunja; Fracassetti, Alessandro; Frangen, Tihomir; Graovac, Goran; Grgić,
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