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Planning for Resilient Coastal Communities

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Planning for Resilient Coastal Communities Planning for Resilient Coastal Communities WELCOME Tip of the Mitt Watershed Council • Nonprofit formed in 1979 • Over 2,300 members The Watershed Council is dedicated to protecting our lakes, rivers, wetlands, and groundwater through respected advocacy, innovative education, technically sound water quality monitoring, and thorough research. Funding Provided By This workshop is funded in part by the Michigan Coastal Zone Management Program, Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. Department of Commerce. Housekeeping All lines are To ask a question, We are muted during type your question recording the webinar. into the Q&A box. this webinar. Today’s Presenters • Dr. Drew Gronewold, Professor, University of Michigan • Dr. Guy Meadows, Professor, Michigan Technological University • Dr. Richard Norton, Professor, University of Michigan Purpose of Today’s Webinar • How to use scenario planning and climate futures • Understanding coastal dynamics and Great Lake water levels • Understanding high-risk areas and management options • Community vulnerability assessments • Shoreline regulation and the Public Trust Building Resiliency In Coastal Communities Funding Provided By Michigan Coastal Zone Management Program The PURPOSE of this program: • Study and analyze the potential coastal hazards along the Great Lakes • Engage citizens, public officials and community stakeholders • Help inform local land use policy and future master planning efforts • Create hazard-ready coastal communities What is Community Resilience? The ability of a community to anticipate, accommodate and positively adapt to or thrive amidst changing climate conditions or hazard events and enhance quality of life, reliable systems, economic vitality and conservation or resources for present and future generations. Urban Sustainability Directors Network Matching Grant Opportunities Full Master Plan This service option is for communities that either do not have an existing Master Plan or have a plan that they wish to update in accordance with the Michigan Planning Enabling Act (2008) Coastal Resilience Master Plan Chapter For communities only wanting to amend their Master Plan to address coastal resilience, LIAA can create a plan addendum that would include flood risk mapping, shoreline erosion mapping, and best practices to improve sustainability as it pertains to Michigan’s dynamic coasts. Action Strategy LIAA will facilitate a discussion(s) with key stakeholders and decision makers in the community to build consensus around coastal land use management. Similar to the Master Plan Chapter option, LIAA will compile flood scenario data and mapping to inform the discussion. Visit resilientmichigan.org for more information Introduction Historical variability Water balance Forecasting Final thoughts The Science Behind Great Lakes Water Level Fluctuations Andrew Gronewold, Ph.D., P.E. [email protected] University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Tip of the Mitt Watershed Council July 2020 1/9 Introduction Historical variability Water balance Forecasting Final thoughts Outline 1 Introduction 2 Historical water level variability 3 The Great Lakes water balance 4 Water level forecasting 5 Final thoughts 2/9 Lisi Pei Joe Smith Tim Hunter Lindsay Fitzpatrick Lacey Mason Anne Clites Ayumi Manome Brent Lofgren Eric Anderson Kaye LaFond Greg Lang Chuliang Xiao Ron Muzzi Steve Ruberg Steve Constant Introduction Historical variability Water balance Forecasting Final thoughts Outline 1 Introduction 2 Historical water level variability 3 The Great Lakes water balance 4 Water level forecasting 5 Final thoughts 3/9 14 Introduction Water abundance Drivers of variability Final thoughts Name Country Surface area Volume (km2) (mi2) (km3) (mi3) Michigan–Huron U.S.andCanada 117,702 45,445 8,458 2,029 Superior U.S.andCanada 82,414 31,820 12,100 2,900 Victoria Multiple 69,485 26,828 2,750 660 Tanganyika Multiple 32,893 12,700 18,900 4,500 Baikal Russia 31,500 12,200 23,600 5,700 GreatBear Lake Canada 31,080 12,000 2,236 536 Malawi Multiple 30,044 11,600 8,400 2,000 Great Slave Lake Canada 28,930 11,170 2,090 500 Erie U.S.andCanada 25,719 9,930 489 117 Winnipeg Canada 23,553 9,094 283 68 Ontario U.S.andCanada 19,477 7,520 1,639 393 Table: Water volume and surface area of Earth’s largest (ranked by surface area) fresh surface waters. From: Gronewold, Fortin, Lofgren, Clites, Stow, and Quinn (2013). Climatic Change. 10 / 22 Introduction Water abundance Drivers of variability Final thoughts Name Country Surface area Volume (km2) (mi2) (km3) (mi3) Michigan–Huron U.S. and Canada 117,702 45,445 8,458 2,029 Superior U.S. and Canada 82,414 31,820 12,100 2,900 Victoria Multiple 69,485 26,828 2,750 660 Tanganyika Multiple 32,893 12,700 18,900 4,500 Baikal Russia 31,500 12,200 23,600 5,700 GreatBear Lake Canada 31,080 12,000 2,236 536 Malawi Multiple 30,044 11,600 8,400 2,000 Great Slave Lake Canada 28,930 11,170 2,090 500 Erie U.S. and Canada 25,719 9,930 489 117 Winnipeg Canada 23,553 9,094 283 68 Ontario U.S. and Canada 19,477 7,520 1,639 393 Table: Water volume and surface area of Earth’s largest (ranked by surface area) fresh surface waters. From: Gronewold, Fortin, Lofgren, Clites, Stow, and Quinn (2013). Climatic Change. 11 / 22 Introduction Challenges Forecasting systems Ogoki Diversion Statute Miles 50 0 50 100 150 200 Nipigon Kilometers Long Lac Diversion River 100 0 100 200 300 MINNESOTA SUP AKE ERIO L R O N T A R Duluth I O St. Marys River Ottawa River MICHIGAN Sault Ste. Marie St. Lawrence River GEORGIAN L BAY Cornwall A QUEBEC Straits of K E Massena WISCONSIN Mackinac H U Green Bay N R O A N G I H C I NTAR Toronto E O IO M K LA Milwaukee E MICHIGAN K Welland A Canal Buffalo L NEW YORK St. Clair River Niagara River Detroit Chicago Detroit River ILLINOIS LAKE ERIE Chicago Sanitary Cleveland and Ship Canal INDIANA PENNSYLVANIA OHIO 6 / 42 Niagara Great Lakes System Profile Ri er St. Lawrence River Elevation: 20 ft. Elevation: 0 ft. Elevation: 0 ft. Depth Gulf of Atlantic 750 ft. Lake St. Lawrence Ocean Depth Michigan 925 ft. NOTTO SCALE. Vertical elevations are exaggerated. Surface elevations are Chart Datum values above MSL, and depths are maximum of each lake. 379 Miles 60 223 Miles 89 Miles 236 Miles 35 150 Miles 77 89 Miles 350 Miles 500 Miles l+--------------•l+---+l+---------+l+--------+l+--------+1+,+1+------+l+----+l+-----+l+-----------<►l+--------------+I Total Distance Along Floor Path 2,212 Miles Modified from Michigan Sea Grant Introduction Historical variability Water balance Forecasting Final thoughts Outline 1 Introduction 2 Historical water level variability 3 The Great Lakes water balance 4 Water level forecasting 5 Final thoughts 5/9 Introduction Historical levels Drivers Models From: NOAA National Ocean Service (CO-OPs) and NOAA-GLERL. 11 / 38 Hydrologic cycle Water levels Channel flows Conclusions From: NOAA National Ocean Service (CO-OPs) and NOAA-GLERL. 7 / 16 abundant, clean water. In contrast, extremely high water levels often lead to extensive shoreline damage, erosion, and loss of both beaches and shorefront property (Rasid et al., 1992). At the same time, high water levels can be a benefit to the shipping industry. 185 Lake Superior ● ●● ● ● 184 ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●●●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●●● ●● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ●●●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●●●● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ●● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●●●● ● ●●● ● ● ●● ●● ●● ●
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