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National Committee on United States-China Relations NCUSCR Newsletter 2013_gr2:Newsletter May 2009 8/6/2013 12:22 PM Page 1 National Committee on United States-China Relations U.S.-China Public Nationwide Track II Intellectuals CHINA Town Econommic Program Hall program Dialogue features Ambassador Gary Locke 4 8 19 ______________________________________ _________________________ _________________________ NOTES America and China’s Dream 2 Spring / Summer 2013 Volume 40, Number 1 NCUSCR Newsletter 2013_gr2:Newsletter May 2009 8/6/2013 12:23 PM Page 2 A Message from the President America and China’s Dream 2 Forty five years ago as a high school senior, I stood drive, all combine to demonstrate his commitment to on street corners handing out literature for Senator reform. Robert F. Kennedy’s run for president. I listened to him Internationally, China is becoming the responsible quote Shaw and say, “Some see things as they are and stakeholder that Robert Zoellick called for in his speech say why, I dream things that never were and say why before our National Committee in 2005. Unequivocal not.” I believed that his vision would bring a prosper- statements that a denuclearized Korean peninsula is ous and peaceful America. China’s first priority, vastly improved military-to- Last February I stood with Chinese President Xi military relations between our countries, commitment Jinping - he was then vice president - at a luncheon and to establish standards for cyber hacking and progress I experienced a new kind of Chinese leader. I presented on long-stalled discussions regarding diligence by him with a photo album of his father’s 1980 American auditors on Chinese listed companies show progress NOTES visit hosted by our organization. The photos showed a on issues long stalled. Chinese delegation of provincial governors and party Xi’s dream is about reform, and Obama should do secretaries, led by his father, visiting the United States all that he can do to help him achieve the reform he right after the historic “opening” of China and eager to seeks. As a first step, Obama and Xi should announce understand the American dream as they met with lead- the commencement of negotiations for a free trade Cover: ers and ordinary Americans across the United States. agreement with a three-year deadline for conclusion. NCUSCR Rather than simply saying thanks and putting the Just as WTO accession helped Jiang Zemin and Zhu President book aside, he opened it and we discussed each Rongji reform China, a free trade pact would do the Stephen Orlins picture. He told me who each Chinese leader was, same, as well as add jobs here in America. with then Vice asked where the pictures were taken and who each They should also enliven the negotiations for a President Xi American was. It was unscripted, human, extended far bilateral investment treaty and set a one-year deadline Jinping at a beyond the allocated time and showed a Chinese for completion. Bilateral investment will play an National leader willing to expose his human side. Today when increasingly important role in this new great power Committee co- President Xi speaks of his “Chinese dream,” I’m relationship. To jump start a major Chinese investment hosted event in reminded of that time 45 years ago when RFK talked in the U.S., Obama should also pledge to authorize Washington, about that dream. Like RFK, President Xi dreams of exports of shale gas to China. Construction of the D.C. in poverty alleviation, national rejuvenation, and freedom terminals and extraction of the gas will create January 2012 from corruption. American jobs, reduce China’s reliance on imported His message is to not repeat the mistakes of history, energy and coal, reduce China’s CO2 emissions, and Photo: to not allow historic great power rivalries to dictate our improve its environment. Kaveh Sardari future. This weekend, when President Obama meets The protection of intellectual property must be a top President Xi in California, they will have the first priority in a new great power relationship because both opportunity to define that concept together and see if sides require it. In order to achieve an innovation soci- they can dream things that never were and ask why ety, China knows it must protect intellectual property. not. For the United States, theft of its citizen’s intellectual We have already begun to see the outlines of Xi’s property makes it difficult to believe that China is China dream. On the domestic front, Premier Li committed to a truly new relationship. The presidents Keqiang, in a speech delivered to senior party leaders, should establish a bilateral task force to agree on committed to an aggressive agenda for economic specific policies that will ensure greater protection for reform, pledging to reduce government involvement intellectual property. in the economy and allowing market forces to play a Finally, the presidents should announce that greater role in guiding economic growth and increas- Obama will visit China within the next twelve months ing investment and innovation. and during that visit he will directly address the The National Development and Reform Chinese people about his vision of the future for Commission proposed an absolute cap on greenhouse America and U.S.-China relations. Let the two presi- gas emissions, as well as a cap on coal consumption. dents lay the foundation for this new great power Additionally, Xi’s elevation of substance over form, his relationship and dream things that never were and ask decision to follow in the footsteps of Deng Xiaoping’s why not. n 1992 Southern trip by visiting Shenzhen (which Adapted from an op-ed published in POLITICO on relaunched economic reform), and his anti-corruption June 7, 2013 NCUSCR­Newsletter­2013_gr2:Newsletter­May­2009­­8/6/2013­­12:23­PM­­Page­3 Forum on China’s Economy at NYSE Forecast for 2013 from China’s Leading Economists 3 The National Committee’s fourth annual forum on China’s economy in the coming year brought some of NOTES China’s leading economists to a capacity audience of 300, including nearly 50 journalists, at the New York Stock Exchange on January 7. Conducted in cooper- ation with Peking University’s China Center for Economic Research (CCER), the program’s speakers included Dr. Justin Yifu Lin, former chief economist and senior vice president of the World Bank; Dr. Qin Xiao, former chair of China Merchants Bank and current chair of the Boyuan Foundation; as well as CCER Director Yao Yang and economist Huang Yiping, among others. The visiting economists, as well as other leading specialists and business leaders Justin Yifu Lin, Professor and Honorary Dean, were in New York for this event and to participate in National School of Development, Peking University the National Committee’s U.S.-China Track II Economic Dialogue (see page 4). The forum was introduced by NYSE Euronext CEO Duncan Niederauer and included keynotes on long-term growth in China by Dr. Lin and on China’s new leadership and reform agenda by Dr. Qin. Panel discussions featured analyses of China’s capital markets and investment strategy, financial markets and monetary policy and projections for financial reform and real estate in China. Video of the full program and presentation slides are available on the National Committee’s web site. Forum attendees at the New York Stock Exchange The National Committee is grateful for the gener- ous support from Xcoal Energy & Resources, Van Eck Global, The Starr Foundation and NYSE Euronext that made this year’s forum possible. n ­­­­­­­­­­____________________________ Yao Yang, Director, China Center for Economic National Committee President Stephen Orlins and Research (CCER), Peking University (left); Qin Xiao, Wang Jianye, Chief Economist, the Export-Import Chairman of the Board, Boyuan Foundation; former Bank of China Chairman, China Merchants Group NCUSCR Newsletter 2013_g:Newsletter May 2009 7/26/2013 11:58 AM Page 4 U.S.-China Track II Economic Dialogue Leading Economists Develop Consensus View 4 The U.S.-China Track II Economic Dialogue Foundation for their support of the dialogue. provides opportunities for leading economists from both sides of the Pacific to collaborate in developing Consensus View of the Sixth suggestions to inform policy decisions. The sixth U.S.-China Track II Economic Dialogue round of the dialogue was held in New York City January 8-9, 2013. The frank and productive meetings January 8-9, 2013 — New York produced a consensus document of recommendations This year, a leadership transition in China and the (see below) that was delivered to senior U.S. and reelection of Obama in the United States present both Chinese leaders. new opportunities and challenges in improving the The Track II initiative was launched by the economic relationship and building trust between the NOTES National Committee in 2010 in partnership with two countries. Chinese economic growth stabilized in Peking University’s China Center for Economic late 2012 and will likely improve modestly in 2013. Research (CCER); five prior meetings have been However, three favorable economic factors that drove conducted in China and the United states since its growth in the past – unlimited labor supply, low inception. Many dialogue participants (see page 5) production costs and rapid export expansion – are have been involved from the start of this initiative and diminishing rapidly. Future growth in China will the talks have remained substantive, open and depend more on reforms, innovation and industrial productive. In 2013 the dialogue focused on risks and upgrading. The U.S. economy narrowly escaped the challenges faced by both countries, reforms needed fiscal cliff at the start of 2013, but near-term legislative on both sides to address these challenges and recom- deadlines on key fiscal issues still pose significant mendations for collaborative efforts to improve trust risks that could disrupt markets.
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