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Shcherbytskyi, Ukraine, and Kremlin Politics By Yaroslav Bilinsky n May 28, 1982, there took place the festive the ceremonies in Kiev, therefore, would have been celebration of the 1,500th anniversary of the most desirable from the viewpoint of Shcherbytskyi, founding of Kiev, the capital of the Ukrainian who certainly tried to have Brezhnev take part.4 By Soviet Socialist Republic, deliberately planned to coin- traveling to Kiev, Brezhnev would have symbolically cide with the 60th anniversary of the formation of the expressed confidence in Shcherbytskyi, which might 1 Soviet Union. The Central Committee of the Commu- have boosted the latter's career. Shcherbytskyi must nist Party of the Soviet Union (CC CPSU), the Presidi- have felt that the outlook for him was not very bright. um of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR, and the Coun- Not only had Yuriy Andropov preempted the post in cil of Ministers of the USSR awarded the city an Order the CC CPSU Secretariat left vacant by Mikhail of Friendship of Peoples and sent a congratulatory Suslov's death, but Ukrainian KGB Chief Vitalii message. The festivities were attended by "delega- Fedorchuk was advanced to a job in Moscow while tions of the capital of our Fatherland, Moscow, of Shcherbytskyi was not.5 Thus, in May 1982 Leningrad, of the Russian Federation, of the Byelorus- sian SSR, of the capitals of the fraternal union repub- lics, of the hero-cities of Volgograd, Sevastopol', 'The connection between the two events had been explicitly made by Volodymyr Shcherbytskyi, First Secretary of the Communist Party of Ukraine, in a speech to Odessa, Novorossiysk, Kerch, Tula, of the hero- party secretaries on June 8, 1981: "Next year we will celebrate the 60th anniversary fortress of Brest, of all oblasts of Ukraine. Present of the establishment of the USSR. A significant event will be the 1,500th anniversary were the heads of the general consulates of socialist of the city of Kiev. The preparation for and the celebration of the USSR anniversary 2 and of Kiev's jubilee as well will undoubtedly result in a striking demonstration of the countries in Kiev." Volodymyr Shcherbytskyi, First triumph of the Leninist nationality policy of the CPSU, of the friendship of peoples in Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist our country, of the ideas of Soviet patriotism and Socialist internationalism." See V. V. Shcherbytskyi, "To Heighten the Activity of Ideological Work," Kommunist Party of Ukraine, gave the keynote address. But Leo- Ukrainy (Kiev), July 1981, p. 7. nid Brezhnev, General Secretary of the CPSU, was This is not to say that Shcherbytskyi was responsible for first linking the two conspicuously absent from the festivities. events, nor that the decision had been made in 1981. See Omeljan Pritsak, "Behind the Scenes of the Proclamation of Kiev's 1,500th Anniversary," Suchasnist' While Shcherbytskyi was of course aware that for (Munich), September 1981, pp. 46-54; and Roman Solchanyk, "Kiev's 1500th several months Brezhnev's physical—and possibly his Anniversary and Soviet Nationality Policy," Radio Liberty Research (Munich), political—health had not been good,3 he also knew RL 186/82, May 5, 1982. 'Radyans'ka Ukraina (Kiev), May 29, 1982. that Brezhnev had resumed his activities in May and 'In late March-early April 1982, Brezhnev suffered a serious physical setback, was still General Secretary. Brezhnev's attendance at provoking widespread speculations in the West that he might resign at the next Central Committee meeting of the CPSU, which was eventually held on May 24, 1982. For a typical story in the West of Brezhnev's illness and its effect on Soviet Mr. Bilinsky is Professor of Political Science, Universi- politics, see "Brezhnev: The Final Days," Newsweek, (New York, NY), Apr. 12, 1982, pp. 30ff. There were also rumors that Brezhnev's daugther Galina ty of Delaware (Newark). He is author of The Second Churbanov was implicated in a corruption scandal. See Soviet Analyst (Richmond, Soviet Republic: The Ukraine after World War II Surrey), Mar. 10, 1982, pp. 2-3. (1964) and of many articles on Soviet politics. Mr. 'Brezhnev was given the first medal commemorating Kiev's establishment and was made Honorary Citizen of Kiev. Brezhnev's greeting—in Russian—adorned the Bilinsky would like to thank Werner G. Hahn, Nina backdrop behind the speaker's podium in the Ukrainian capital. Pravda (Moscow), Strokata-Karavansky, Sviatoslav Karavansky, Leonid May 17, 1982; and Radyans'ka Ukraina, May 26, May 27, and the photograph May Lyman, Petro Odarchenko, John S. Reshetar, Nadia 29, 1982. Svitlychny, and Jan Zaprudnik for their kind help on •Suslov died on Jan. 25, 1982. See Pravda, Jan. 27, 1982. Andropov was selected as a secretary of the CPSU Secretariat at the May 24, 1982, plenum. See ibid., May various aspects of this article. 25, 1982. On May 26, Fedorchuk was appointed all-Union KGB head. 1 PRODUCED 2004 BY UNZ.ORG ELECTRONIC REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED Shcherbytskyi, Ukraine, and Kremlin Politics Brezhnev's Dnipropetrovsk clan.6 A graduate of the Dnipropetrovsk Institute of Chemical Engineering, Shcherbytskyi had been second, then first secretary of the party city committee of Dniprodzerzhinsk, Brezhnev's native town (from 1948 to 1954). In 1954, he became second and in 1955, first secretary of the Dnipropetrovsk obkom (a position held by Brezhnev from 1947 until 1950, and by Brezhnev's associate Andrey Kirilenko until 1955.) After Shcherbytskyi suf- fered a setback in 1963—loss of the premiership in Ukraine and of his candidate membership on the CPSU Presidium (Politburo) — it was evidently Brezhnev who helped him to regain his old positions both in Kiev and Moscow in 1965, after Nikita Khrushchev's fall. Furthermore, Shcherbytskyi was promoted to full CPSU Politburo member already in April of 1966, again undoubtedly thanks to Brezhnev's influence. Most important, on May 19, 1972, Brezhnev dismissed Petro Shelest and pro- moted Shcherbytskyi to First Secretary of the Commu- nist Party of Ukraine.7 In 1976, the two leaders apparently had good rap- port. In his closing remarks to the 1976 congress of the Ukrainian party, Shcherbytskyi boasted to the del- egates that he had summarized its proceedings to Brezhnev by telephone, saying: Soloists of the Dance and Song company of the We stressed the exceptionally business-like, warm, Ukrainian SSR at May 1982 observances of the and we can say, friendly atmosphere in which our 1,500th anniversary of the Ukrainian capital Kiev. Congress has proceeded. Leonid H'ich said that no- —TASS trim Swfot*. body could doubt that the Congress of Ukrainian Communists would proceed exactly like that." Shcherbytskyi was being overlooked in Moscow and snubbed in Kiev. Reviewing his accomplishments and The following year, 1977, was a very good one for weaknesses then, with an eye to possible advance- Shcherbytskyi. Ukrainian farmers harvested more ment to higher political office in Moscow, grain than called for by the annual plan. Brezhnev Shcherbytskyi must have concluded that—despite his congratulated Shcherbytskyi, and Shcherbytskyi was efforts over the previous ten years to run the Ukraine handsomely decorated. On September 13, 1977, the to Brezhnev's liking—he nevertheless had three vul- Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet awarded him nerable points: (1) a worsening relationship with an Order of Lenin and his second Gold Medal with Brezhnev and probably with Brezhnev's closest prote- Hammer and Sickle of Hero of Socialist Labor. The or- ge, Konstantin Chernenko; (2) his less than complete ders were pinned on him by Brezhnev himself on Sep- command over the Ukrainian Communist Party; and tember 29, 1977, at a festive ceremony in the Kremlin (3) the diminished weight of Ukrainians among the attended by all full and candidate members of the Po- full (voting) members of the CC CPSU, who formally litburo and all CC CPSU secretaries with the sole ex- elect the top leaders in the Soviet Union. ception of Kirilenko.9 In his remarks, Brezhnev •The fullest and best account Is Joel C. Moses, "Regional Cohorts and Political Shcherbytskyi and Brezhnev Mobility in the USSR: The Case of Dnepropetrovsk," Soviet Union/Union Soviitique (Tempe, A2), Vol. 3, No. 1, 1976, pp. 63-89. TSee the officially unconfirmed but very plausible account in "Ethnocide of the Shcherbytskyi's relationship to Brezhnev had not al- Ukrainians in the USR," in The Ukrainian Herald, Issue 7-8. Baltimore, MD, Smoloskyp, 1976, pp. 127-28. ways been as distant as it appeared to be in May 'Radyans'ka Ukraina, Feb. 14, 1976. 1982. Shcherbytskyi had long been a member of 'Pravda, Sept. 30, 1977. PRODUCED 2004 BY UNZ.ORG ELECTRONIC REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED Problems of Communism July-August 1983 stressed his personal links with Shcherbytskyi: All of us, and I perhaps more than many other com- rades, are well aware how much energy, will power, and Bolshevist ardor you have given to the cause of the development and flourishing of Soviet Ukraine. I remember well your work at the plant where I also once worked. Since then you have covered a great and, I should say, glorious road of a party and state leader.'" Yet in 1978, and especially in 1979, Shcherbytskyi was dealt several rebuffs by Brezhnev. In February 1978 three Soviet leaders became 60 years old: full Politburo member and Secretary Fedor Kulakov, Polit- buro candidate member and First Secretary of the Byelorussian CP Piatr Masherov, and Shcherbytskyi. The official message congratulating Kulakov was a lit- tle longer and much warmer than those addressed to Ukrainian party chief Volodymyr Shcherbytskyi ap- Masherov and Shcherbytskyi.11 Kulakov and Masherov plauds as Soviet Premier Nikolay Tikhonov delivers were each awarded the title of Hero of Socialist Labor the report on "The Main Guidelines for the Economic with the Order of Lenin and the Hammer and Sickle Development of the USSR for 1981-85 and the Peri- Gold Medal, but Shcherbytskyi had to make do with od Ending in 1990" at the 26th Congress of the Com- an Order of the October Revolution.
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  • 2018 Sartorius Christopher Ma

    2018 Sartorius Christopher Ma

    UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA GRADUATE COLLEGE WARNING INTELLIGENCE IN NUCLEAR CRISIS MANAGEMENT: AVOIDING CATASTROPHIC MISCALCULATION A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE FACULTY in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY By CHRISTOPHER M. SARTORIUS Norman, OK 2018 WARNING INTELLIGENCE IN NUCLEAR CRISIS MANAGMENT: AVOIDING CATASTROPHIC MISCALCULATION A DISSERTATION APPROVED FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE BY ___________________________ Dr. Ronald K. Gaddie, Chair ___________________________ Dr. Colin M. Barry ___________________________ Dr. Deven E. Carlson ___________________________ Dr. Jorge L. Mendoza ___________________________ Dr. Shad B. Satterthwaite © Copyright by CHRISTOPHER M. SARTORIUS 2018 All Rights Reserved. This dissertation is dedicated to my family and all intelligence professionals, military and civilian, past and present, who have dedicated their lives to protecting our great nation and our allies. Acknowledgements Working on this doctoral dissertation has been both a joy and a challenge. This work would not have been possible without the support and encouragement of countless individuals. At the most personal level, I would like to thank my wife, Fulvia, for her support over the past three years of this doctoral program and for her care and love over the past 25 years. I wish to thank my son, Konrad, for providing inspiration, much needed breaks in my work routine, and for sharing lunch together at the OU cafeteria followed by our fun table tennis matches. I also would like to thank my parents, Tim and Wanda Sartorius, for instilling in me the value of a great education. I would also like to thank Dr. Shad Satterthwaite, always friendly, open, and upbeat for enthusiastically encouraging me to pursue a doctoral degree at OU and Dr.