Peak Oil & Global Sustainability Strategies
David Bell Sydney Convenor ASPO Australia Business as Usual is Over • Every week there is a crisis • Energy crisis is under the radar but it is there • Financial crises can be fixed with dollars unlike an energy crisis • Google energy shortages or fuel shortages in news around the world • Car & Airline Industry fighting for their survival • US$70 oil is still high & markets are still tight • Economists cannot predict what the ASX will be at end of the year. In July 08 one predicts 6500 Energy is the New Currency • USD is a currency backed by oil • OPEC producers are tied to USD • US imports 15 million barrels of oil a day • Rising prices make petrodollar recycling and trade balances worse • Oil producers cannot invest cash in US banking and financial system except T Bills • Russia’s Georgian conquest was about asserting control over energy flows • Food prices have also risen-food is energy Nigeria’s Offshore Platform Bonga attacked in June 2008
120 kms off Nigerian Coast MEND now can go offshore Daily Prices in USD- Year to Year Daily Prices in USD
WTI 2004-2008 in USD
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20
0
5/01/2004 5/04/2004 5/07/2004 5/10/2004 5/01/2005 5/04/2005 5/07/2005 5/10/2005 5/01/2006 5/04/2006 5/07/2006 5/10/2006 5/01/2007 5/04/2007 5/07/2007 5/10/2007 5/01/2008 5/04/2008 5/07/2008 5/10/2008 Average Prices in USD 2004-2008
Source: EIA Data & CIBC World Markets Are we at Peak Yet? World Net Exports Top 20 Oil exporters –93% of all exporters 2012- Mexico No Longer Exports to US Future World Net Exports CIBC World Markets Forecast What is this telling us?
• Oil demand will occur in Brazil, Russia, India & China (BRIC’s) at expense of OECD • China - 4 million new vehicles a year • US - 3 million vehicles off the road by 2010 Australia is running a Petroleum Deficit- adds to Foreign Debt
Australian Oil and Refined Products Imports
0 Jul-07 Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- -500 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 -1000
-1500
-2000
-2500
-3000
-3500 Competition for remaining oil could get nasty One way to Avoid Previous Slide
• Fair allocations for remaining supplies • Countries work together to solve problem • Collapse of systems is averted • Everyone agrees to consume less This involves a paradigm shift • Current situation is unsustainable • Financial Markets crashing is proof we have problems • Current OECD World cannot handle US$140 oil • Consumers to conservers and producers • Passenger numbers on Public transport up! • Change is already happening No Silver Bullets only Silver Buckshot
• ELP- Economise, Localise & Produce • Grow food locally • Rail not roads • Ship goods by water • Pay people for productivity not hours • Small is the new big • Smart urban design is essential • Technology will not save us we need strategies The World is not Flat! High Oil changes long supply lines
Source: CIBC World Markets Small is the new big • Horizons shrink • The best energy to find is conservation • Conservation starts with shortening supply lines • Energy and food production comes home • We rebuild local communities • Co-operation and pooling of resources A new currency for a new era?
“We have it in our power to build the world anew”. Thomas Paine Why a Local Currency?
• To build resilience in the local economy by keeping money circulating in the community and building new relationships • To get people thinking and talking about how they spend their money • To encourage more local trade and thus reduce food and trade miles • To encourage tourists to use local businesses (source: Totnes Pound Project) Role of Engineers in PO Economy • Develop low energy solutions – Peak Oil & Global Warming • Teaching and retraining of service industry workforce • Creative reuse of resources • Engineers understand energy and numbers • EROEI is key to the future • Bringing back rail • Measure energy used in communities • Building new energy infrastructure This is no longer acceptable PO Engineers at Work Is this safe? Answer:
Consult an Engineer Thank You
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