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Energy Prices, Business Cycles, and Financial Crises the Argument for Cycle Attenuation
Business and Financial Cycles Post-Bretton-Woods Problems Energy Prices, Business Cycles, and Financial Crises The Argument for Cycle Attenuation Mahmoud A. El-Gamal & Amy M. JaVe Rice University & Baker Institute for Public Policy October 2008 Mahmoud A. El-Gamal & Amy M. JaVe – London, October 27, 2008 Energy Prices, Business Cycles, and Financial Crises Business and Financial Cycles Financial Crises and Energy Prices Post-Bretton-Woods Problems The Role of Recycled Petrodollars Frequency and Causes of Crises Globalizations Past and Present Reckless Lending Era 1850s–1870s: Major currency and banking crises Gold Standard Era 1880–1913: Some currency and banking crises Between Wars 1919–1939: Numerous currency and banking crises Bretton Woods 1945–1971: Many currency crises but no banking crises Dollar Era 1973–present: Numerous currency & many banking crises Trade surpluses, Reckless Lending, and Recent Crises 1980–present: 1980s Scandinavia & Latin America: Reckless lending fueled bubbles that collapsed with oil prices, leading to currency and banking crises 1990s Japan, Asia: Supporting the Dollar and reckless lending fueled bubbles, which burst with tightened monetary policy, banking crisis 2000s Contagion + record U.S. debt pose substantial global-systemic risk Mahmoud A. El-Gamal & Amy M. JaVe – London, October 27, 2008 Energy Prices, Business Cycles, and Financial Crises Business and Financial Cycles Financial Crises and Energy Prices Post-Bretton-Woods Problems The Role of Recycled Petrodollars Coincidence of High Oil Prices with Financial Crises Crises Severest 1850s-70s (before gold standard), and 1970s– (after Bretton Woods) 120 100 80 60 Brent Oil Price in 2006 Dollars 40 20 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Mahmoud A. -
Negotiating Energy Diplomacy and Its Relationship with Foreign Policy and National Security
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy ISSN: 2146-4553 available at http: www.econjournals.com International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2020, 10(2), 1-6. Negotiating Energy Diplomacy and its Relationship with Foreign Policy and National Security Ana Bovan1, Tamara Vučenović1, Nenad Perić2* 1Metropolitan University, Faculty of Management, Belgrade, Serbia, 2Faculty for Diplomacy and Security, Belgrade, Serbia. *Email: [email protected] Received: 19 September 2019 Accepted: 01 December 2019 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.8754 ABSTRACT Energy diplomacy is a complex field of international relations, closely linked to its principal, foreign policy and overall national security. We observe the relationship of issues that belong to the three concepts and how they are intertwined in the geopolitical reality. Despite the ontological hierarchy of the three concepts, where national security is on the highest level of generality, and energy diplomacy on the lowest, it is a recurring theme for them to continuously meet and intersect in realpolitik in a dynamic relationship. The article specifically looks at the integration of energy diplomacy into foreign policy. We discuss two pathways that energy diplomacy has taken on its integration course into foreign policy, namely the path marked by national security topics and the path that is dominantly an economic one. The article also observes the nexus of national security, foreign policy, economic security and economic diplomacy, which is termed the energy security paradox. It exemplifies the inconsistencies in the general state of affairs in which resource riches of a country result in a stable exporter status and consequentially, stable exporting energy diplomacy. -
Climate Diplomacy
2014 Edition NEW PATHS FOR CLIMATE DIPLOMACY leGal notice NEW PATHS FOR The climate diplomacy initiative is a collaborative effort of the Federal Foreign Office in partnership with adelphi, a leading Berlin-based think tank for applied research, policy analysis, and consultancy on global change issues. CLIMATE DIPLOMACY This publication by adelphi research gemeinnützige GmbH is supported by a grant from the German Federal Foreign Office. www.adelphi.de www.auswaertiges-amt.de Authors Paola Adriázola Alexander Carius Laura Griestop Lena Ruthner Dennis Tänzler Joe Thwaites Stephan Wolters Design stoffers/steinicke www.stoffers-steinicke.de © adelphi, 2014 Foreword Climate Diplomacy – a Foreign Policy Challenge for the 21st Century limate change is one of the most important chal- organisations. In reaching out to partners around the world, we seek to raise awareness lenges that humanity collectively faces in the 21st and explore new ideas on how to best mitigate the effects of climate change in interna- C century. As the recently published Fifth Assess- tional relations. At the initiative’s core is the conviction that we require a new, preventive ment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate foreign policy approach: an approach that anticipates climate-induced conflicts of the Change shows, with greater certainty than ever, global future, builds trust now between the stakeholders of those future conflicts, strengthens warming is taking place and is caused by greenhouse the institutions and governance structures needed to address them or develops new forums gas emissions deriving from human activity. The effects for dialogue where they will be needed in future, but where none exist at present. -
GCC Oil Exporters and the Future of the Dollar Forthcoming in New Political Economy
Title: GCC Oil Exporters and the Future of the Dollar Forthcoming in New Political Economy Author: Bessma Momani- Assistant Professor University of Waterloo and Senior Fellow, Centre for International Governance and Innovation Bio: Dr. Bessma Momani is Assistant Professor at the University of Waterloo and a Senior Fellow at the Centre for International Governance and Innovation. Dr. Momani has written on the US Middle East Free Trade Area, Euro-Med initiative, economic integration of the GCC, EU-GCC free trade agreement, economic liberalization in Egypt, and extensively on the International Monetary Fund. In addition to three monographs, her articles have appeared in World Economics, International Journal, Review of International Political Economy, Review of International Organizations, World Economy, Global Society, Middle East Review of International Affairs, New Political Economy, Canadian Journal of Political Science, and Asian Affairs. Abstract: Since the early 1970s, the oil-exporting states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) led by Saudi Arabia, have played a key role in supporting the value of the US dollar by invoicing oil trade oil in dollars and by investing in US dollar reserves and securities. However, the United States‟ negative fiscal and current account positions have made many nervous about the sustainability of the US dollar as an international reserve currency. This article asks whether the GCC oil exporters will undermine the future of the dollar. Three factors are considered: the GCC‟s influence in changing the dollar-based invoicing of oil; emerging patterns in petrodollar recycling; and, the potential for diversification of GCC official reserves. The findings of this article suggest that despite some economic rationales in favour of loosening ties to the dollar, in the short term at least, the GCC will remain loyal to the dollar for political and security reasons. -
Britain, British Petroleum, Shell and the Remaking of the International Oil Industry, 1957-1979
Empires of Energy: Britain, British Petroleum, Shell and the Remaking of the International Oil Industry, 1957-1979 Author: Jonathan Robert Kuiken Persistent link: http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:104079 This work is posted on eScholarship@BC, Boston College University Libraries. Boston College Electronic Thesis or Dissertation, 2013 Copyright is held by the author, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise noted. Boston College The Graduate School of Arts and Sciences Department of History EMPIRES OF ENERGY: BRITAIN, BRITISH PETROLEUM, SHELL AND THE REMAKING OF THE INTERNATIONAL OIL INDUSTRY, 1957-1979 [A dissertation by] JONATHAN R. KUIKEN submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy August, 2013 © copyright by JONATHAN ROBERT KUIKEN 2013 Empires of Energy: Britain, British Petroleum, Shell and the remaking of the international oil industry, 1957-1979 Jonathan R. Kuiken Dissertation Advisor - James E. Cronin Dissertation Abstract This dissertation examines British oil policy from the aftermath of the Suez Crisis in 1956-1957 until the Iranian Revolution and the electoral victory of Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative Party in 1979. It was a period marked by major transitions within Britain’s oil policy as well as broader changes within the international oil market. It argues that the story of Britain, and Britain’s two domestically-based oil companies, BP and Shell, offers a valuable case study in the development of competing ideas about the reorganization of the international oil industry in the wake of the rise of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries and the companies’ losing control over the production of oil. -
Journal of Diplomacy
Seton Hall Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations 400 South Orange Avenue, McQuaid Hall, South Orange, NJ 07079 Tel: 973-275-2515 Fax: 973-275-2519 Email: [email protected] http://www.journalofdiplomacy.org Seton Hall Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations is the official semi- Editor-in-Chief annual publication of the Seton Hall School Dennis Meaney of Diplomacy and International Relations at Seton Hall University. The Journal provides Deputy Editor-in-Chief a unique forum for international leaders in Michael Curtin government, the private sector, academia, and nongovernmental organizations to Executive Editor analyze and comment on international Ruthly Cadestin affairs. Editorial Media Manager Indexing: The Journal is indexed by Sajedeh Goudarzi Columbia International Affairs Online, Public Affairs Information Service, Social Media Associates International Political Science Abstracts, Patricia Zanini Graca, Juan C Garcia, America: History and Life and Historical Abstracts: International Relations and Security Network, and Ulrich’s Periodical Senior Editors Directory. Zehra Khan, Kevin Hill, Chiazam T Onyenso Manuscripts: Address all submissions to the Editor-in-Chief. We accept both hard Associate Editors copies and electronic versions. Submissions Maliheh Bitaraf, Meagan Torello, Erick may not exceed 6,000 words in length and Agbleke, Oluwagbemiga D Oyeneye, Edder must follow the Chicago manual of style. A Zarate, Emanuel Hernandez, Katherine M Submission deadlines are posted on our Landes, Troy L Dorch, Kendra Brock, Alex website. Miller, Devynn N Nolan, Lynn Wassenaar, Morgan McMichen, Eleanor Baldenweck Back Issues: Available upon request. Faculty Adviser Dr. Ann Marie Murphy The opinions expressed in the Journal are those of the contributors and should not be construed as representing those of Seton Hall University, the Seton Hall School of Diplomacy and International Relations, or the editors of the Journal. -
The Debt Crisis
CHAPTER 12 The Debt Crisis The simultaneous emergence of debt-servicing difficulties in a number of major borrowing countries, and a consequent threat to the solvency of many international banks, was the most traumatic international financial experience of the 1980s. The debt crisis also acted as a more general signal of misadjustments within the international system as a whole, as well as within individual national economies. It slowed or even halted growth in many developing countries. It brought home the consequences of the interna- tionalization of finance: the vulnerability of producers in Latin America (and elsewhere) to interest changes decided by the Federal Reserve System in Washington and to alterations in sentiment in the banking community. But it also showed that bank depositors, bank customers, and, indeed, whole national economies in advanced industrial countries could be affected by policy shifts in Mexico City or Manila or Warsaw. For a time, a major banking crisis appeared imminent in industrial countries. The debt crisis placed the IMF back at the center of the international financial system, first as a coordinator in a crisis, and then in a larger sense, as a source of information, advice, and warning on the mutual consistency of national economic policies. The imminent threat of a collapse of the world financial system demonstrated the dangers to national and individual welfare caused by the existence of large global imbalances. Tackling the debt question involved addressing the larger problems in the international order that had given rise to it. Sound national policies inevitably played a part in the search for a solution, but so too did an alteration of views about international movements of capital and the nature of risk. -
Energy Diplomacy Beyond Pipelines: Navigating Risks and Opportunities
REPORT December 2020 ENERGY DIPLOMACY BEYOND PIPELINES: NAVIGATING RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES PIETER DE POUS, LISA FISCHER & FELIX HEILMANN About E3G Copyright E3G is an independent climate change think This work is licensed under the Creative tank accelerating the transition to a climate Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- safe world. E3G builds cross-sectoral coalitions ShareAlike 2.0 License. to achieve carefully defined outcomes, chosen for their capacity to leverage change. You are free to: E3G works closely with like-minded partners > Copy, distribute, display, and perform in government, politics, business, civil the work. society, science, the media, public interest foundations and elsewhere. > Make derivative works. www.e3g.org Under the following conditions: Berlin > You must attribute the work in the Neue Promenade 6 manner specified by the author Berlin, 10178 or licensor. Germany +49 (0)30 2887 3405 > You may not use this work for commercial purposes. Brussels Rue du Commerce 124 > If you alter, transform, or build upon Brussels, 1000 this work, you may distribute the Belgium resulting work only under a license +32 (0)2 5800 737 identical to this one. > For any reuse or distribution, London you must make clear to others the license 47 Great Guildford Street terms of this work. London SE1 0ES United Kingdom > Any of these conditions can be waived +44 (0)20 7593 2020 if you get permission from the copyright holder. Washington 2101 L St NW Your fair use and other rights are Suite 400 in no way affected by the above. Washington DC, 20037 United States +1 202 466 0573 © E3G 2020 Cover image Photo by qimono on Pixabay 2 ENERGY DIPLOMACY CHOICE S : NAV IGATING R I S K S A N D OPPORTUNITIES REPORT DECEMBER 2020 ENERGY DIPLOMACY BEYOND PIPELINES: NAVIGATING RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES PIETER DE POUS, FELIX HEILMANN & LISA FISCHER 3 ENERGY DIPLOMACY CHOICE S : NAV IGATING R I S K S A N D OPPORTUNITIES Acknowledgements This project has received funding from the European Commission through a LIFE grant. -
The Arabian Peninsula in Modern Times: a Historiographical Survey of Recent Publications J.E
Journal of Arabian Studies 4.2 (December 2014) pp. 244–74 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21534764.2014.979080 The Arabian Peninsula in Modern Times: A Historiographical Survey of Recent Publications J.E. PETERSON Abstract: Writing on the history of the Arabian Peninsula has grown considerably in recent years and this survey — an updating of an earlier examination — cites and describes the publications in Western languages since 1990 that deal with the Peninsula’s history, historiography, and related subjects. It loosely categorizes the literature according to subject and assesses the state of the art during this time period. It also includes some personal observations of the author on the progress and direction of writing on the Arabian Peninsula. Keywords: Arabian Peninsula, Gulf, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, history, historiography, country studies, biography, boundaries, military, economic history, social history, cultural history, diplomatic history, foreign policy, Britain, USA, Islam, Wahhabism, Islamic sects, Indian Ocean studies, Hadramawt, Jews in Yemen 1 Introduction In an article published in 1991, I wrote that “The outlines of Arabia’s modern history are well known. It is the underlying firmament that remains terra incognita.”1 To be sure, much of the ter- ritory still remains unknown or unexplored, but, on the positive side, significant inroads have been made over the two decades since then. This survey is an update of that earlier article. The review of recent literature not only reflects an augmentation of publications but a (seemingly paradoxical) broadening and narrowing of focus. I remarked in the earlier essay that much of the literature was descriptive or narrative. -
View and Download the End of the Present Here
THE END OF THE PRESENT T This publication draws together critical H reflection, speculative fiction, and collective E research to consider the ‘long crises’ of capitalism and the environment. It explores E the different forms of time in which N financial and environmental crises are D located, and how we as humans experience these massive events. O F Curator and artist Angela Chan and artist, writer and lecturer Emily Rosamond present T their own takes on time and crises, each H in response to the question ‘when does a E crisis begin and end?’ Emily Rosamond’s essay, Swarm Signals, connects astrophysics P to financial markets to question causality R and influence. Angela Chan’s short story, E Blurred Events, takes us to a near future in S which pandemic time blurs world politics. E N Jumping off from The End of the Present, T an online residency with Arts Catalyst, our quasi factual writing runs throughout this publication. Each narrative develops research undertaken by participants in public online co-research workshops where we collectively mapped events across recent and deep timescales. Our texts are a time(un)line of connections, which attempt to unravel cause and effect, and undo linear readings of history. Ruth Beale & Amy Feneck, The Alternative School of Economics 2 T H E E N D O F T H E P R E TIME(UN)LINE S E N The Alternative School T of Economics 3 T PINK ICE H E The Antarctic Treaty System, the post- colonial promise to ‘continue forever to E be used exclusively for peaceful purposes’ A N ends in 2048. -
Before the 'Locomotive' Runs: the Impact of the – Oil Shock on Japan and the International Financi
Financial History Review . (), pp. –. © The Author(s), . Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of European Association for Banking and Financial History. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/./), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. doi:./S Before the ‘locomotive’ runs: the impact of the – oil shock on Japan and the international financial system KAZUHIKO YAGO Waseda University This article offers a Japanese perspective on the debate about the international financial system immedi- ately after the first oil shock of –. Using archival records from the OECD and Bank of Japan, I analyze the three key policy issues discussed at the meetings of Working Party (WP) of the OECD: petrodollar recycling, balance-of-payments adjustments, and the management of global growth. Documents show that the Japanese approach to capital controls, exchange rate management, state-led growth orientation and international banking strategies was rather strengthened by the impact of the oil shock. By the OECD viewed Japan, together with Germany and the United States, as one of the ‘locomotives’ that would trigger a revival of economic growth in the industrialized West. Keywords: petrodollars, recycling, balance-of-payment adjustment, OECD, Japan JEL codes: F,F,N,N,N I The oil shock of the s is considered one of the most momentous events in the transformation of the world economy, along with the Nixon shock (Maier ). The fourfold increase in the oil price (from $. to $. per barrel between October and January ) caused by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shook the foundations of capitalist economies, which until then had enjoyed a plentiful supply of cheap oil under a fixed exchange rate regime. -
Origins and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks
Department of Economics and Finance – Chair of Money and Banking ORIGINS AND CONSEQUENCES OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS SUPERVISOR Prof. Paolo Paesani CANDIDATE Riccardo Ambrogi Matr. 184651 ACADEMIC YEAR 2015 / 2016 Index Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 4 Chapter 1: The Macroeconomic Reactions to Oil Price Shocks ................................................ 5 1. Oil prices over time .................................................................................................................... 5 2. Oil Shocks Propagation Channels ............................................................................................ 8 2.1 Oil Price Shocks and Recession ............................................................................................. 9 2.1.1 Effects of an Oil Price Decrease on Output Growth .................................................... 12 2.2 Oil Price Shock and Inflation ............................................................................................... 13 2.3 Modelling the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Price Shocks ............................................ 14 2.3.1 First Round Effects........................................................................................................ 15 2.3.2 Second Round Effects .................................................................................................... 16 3. Different Effects of Oil Price Shocks Over time ...................................................................