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Investment Ideas Cox & Kings Ltd. 21 April 2016

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Investment Ideas Cox & Kings Ltd. 21 April 2016 INITIATING COVERAGE CMP: `190.45/- st 21 April, 2016 SECTOR: TRAVEL & TOURISM ACCUMULATE COX & KINGS LTD. Shivani V. Vishwanathan Tel: +9122-66638956 [email protected] Pooja Doshi Tel: +9122-66638959 [email protected] Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (CIN U67120KA2000PTC027628) SEBI Rgn. No. : INH200002739 No. 14, Frontline Granduer, Walton Road, Bangalore-560001; Website: www.way2wealth.com Email: [email protected] Way2wealth Research is also available on Bloomberg WTWL <GO> KEY STOCK DATA CMP `190.45 Market Cap (` Crs.) 3218.6 52W High/Low `331.2/140.5 Shares o/s (crs.) 16.9 3-m daily average vol 643713 Bloomberg COXK:IN NSE Code COX&KINGS BSE Code 533144 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN Promoters 48.73% FIIs & DIIs 37.38% Public & Others 13.89% Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (CIN U67120KA2000PTC027628) SEBI Rgn. No. : INH200002739 No. 14, Frontline Granduer, Walton Road, Bangalore-560001; Website: www.way2wealth.com Email: [email protected] 21 April 2016 Way2wealth Research is also available on Bloomberg WTWL <GO> 2 Cox & Kings Ltd. INVESTMENT THEME Over the years the stock has been de-rated on account of investor perception about the company’s aggressive acquisition strategy; which has not paid the requisite dividends. All the acquisitions were in developed economies which are now victims of the ongoing financial crisis. We concede to the market opinion and concerns regarding the debt on the books; but we believe that there is a perception – valuation mismatch with similar companies having operations in these geographies. Agreeably the market is granting a discount to valuations from comparables on account of the above stated concerns, but we believe these valuations are a deep discount to a deserved multiple given the positive triggers over the next few years. The company has the following positive triggers going for it: The recent acquisition of LateRooms and subsequent sell off along with SuperBreak to Malvern Enterprises is a positive step in the restructuring of the business. The company’s strategy when they acquired LateRooms was to add synergistic value to the existing online business in UK and Europe, SuperBreak, in terms of cross selling as well as margin improvement as there would be an increase in the B2C business in lieu of existing mix of higher B2B business. But with the sale of these two businesses to the private equity the company wanted to reap the benefits of the merger and hence acquired 49% in the same private equity. Hence assuring that it would enjoy the benefits of these two business combined in the future. Apart from the online business gaining traction, India outbound is witnessing healthy growth in the range of 12-15%. Meininger, the company’s budget lodging offerings, is expected to double capacity by FY19 and hence contribute to the growth of the company. On the balance sheet front, the management is focused on improving its working capital cycle in India coupled with debt reduction targets of `300-500crs. yearly for the next few years. We expect profitability to improve on account of higher capacity utilization as well as lower interest costs. Keeping in mind these positive triggers for the company we believe that the stock is available at cheap valuations. At the CMP of `190.5/-the stock trades at an EV/EBIDTA of 7x and 6.3x its estimated EBIDTA of `894crs & `910 crs for FY16E& FY17E respectively. We believe this stock holds good long term potential and hence advise investors with a 2 to 3 year investment horizon to ACCUMULATE the stock. Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (CIN U67120KA2000PTC027628) SEBI Rgn. No. : INH200002739 No. 14, Frontline Granduer, Walton Road, Bangalore-560001; Website: www.way2wealth.com Email: [email protected] 21 April 2016 Way2wealth Research is also available on Bloomberg WTWL <GO> 3 Cox & Kings Ltd. COMPANY OVERVIEW Cox & Kings is one of the largest established travel company in the world, with legacy dating back to 1758 in UK. Bound by strong ties to India, the company stayed on and flourished even after independence. The Indian business started as a franchisee of the then parent company. Its primary business was Air Ticketing. Post this, it ventured into inbound tour operations and then outbound and lastly Foreign Exchange. In 2004, Cox & Kings acquired ETN a destination management company in Europe in order to capture the back-end destination management services enabling it to backward integrate its operations. In 2007, Cox & Kings India reversed acquired its parent company in UK. Two years post the company became a publically listed company by launching its IPO in the securities market. Today, Cox & Kings is a premium brand in all travel related services in the Indian subcontinent, employing over 5000 trained professionals. Its India operations are headquartered in Mumbai It has over 12 fully owned offices in India across key areas and offices worldwide located in UK, USA, Japan, Russia, Singapore and Dubai. It has associate offices in Germany, Italy, Spain, South Africa, Sweden and Australia. The company works on a franchisee model in India and currently has a distribution strength of 142 Franchisee, 12 owned stores & 90 preferred sales agents. The mix between principal business segments are: REVENUE MIX Others EBITDA MIX Others Meininger Meininger 4% -3% Leisure India 14% 16% 22% Education 29% India Leisure Leisure 26% Education International International 29% 29% Leisure 26% Source: Company, Way2Wealth Research Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (CIN U67120KA2000PTC027628) SEBI Rgn. No. : INH200002739 No. 14, Frontline Granduer, Walton Road, Bangalore-560001; Website: www.way2wealth.com Email: [email protected] 21 April 2016 Way2wealth Research is also available on Bloomberg WTWL <GO> 4 Cox & Kings Ltd. TIMELINE Acquisition of Acquisition of Cox & Acquisition of Tempo IPO `591.9crs Clearmine Ltd and Kings Ltd. (UK) - Holidays Pty Ltd FY2008 FY2010 FY2006 ETN (UK) - `39.0crs FY2009 Australia $27mn Acquisition of East India `15.6crs Quoprro Global Travel Company Inc. Acquisition of Cox & Services Pvt. Ltd. - (USA) - $22mn Kings (Japan) - `0.2crs `2.0crs Acquisition of MyPlanet Australia Pty Ltd. (Australia) Acquisition of Holidaybreak Ltd. Acquisition of LateRooms for GBP8.5mn (UK) - GBP323.4mn Sale of Explore Worldwide Ltd. for FY2012 FY2016 GBP25.8mn Sale of LateRooms for GBP20mn and Super Break for GBP9.25mn to Malvern PE. 49% stake buy in Malvern PE for GBP6.37mn. Source: Company, Way2Wealth Research Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (CIN U67120KA2000PTC027628) SEBI Rgn. No. : INH200002739 No. 14, Frontline Granduer, Walton Road, Bangalore-560001; Website: www.way2wealth.com Email: [email protected] 21 April 2016 Way2wealth Research is also available on Bloomberg WTWL <GO> 5 Cox & Kings Ltd. INVESTMENT RATIONALE Leisure India is the fastest growing business for the company, clocking 12-15% growth consistently over the last few years. The company is very positive on maintaining this growth rate on account of increasing number of outbound travellers. Outbound travel constitutes 3/4th of this business and is growing at a faster rate. Approximately 55-60% of the business in India is through corporates hence entailing heavy working capital requirements. Currently at the ~50% EBIDTA margins the company is clocking a 17% ROCE with `700crs of working capital. The company intends to bring this down by `100crs. To `600crs. hence improve ROCE in the India operations to 20%. Company is working on bringing down its working capital cycle to a month from its current 45-50 days. We believe the business growth will ride on the back of outbound travel as awareness and aspirations rise amongst the bourgeoning middle class and the youth backed by better affordability and increasing disposable income. Leisure International which constitutes 30% of the revenues encompasses the inherited ultra luxury travel consultancy business of the parent company which the Indian business reversed acquired back in 2007. It also includes the online website businesses of SuperBreak & LateRooms (both of which were recently sold). The mix between the online and offline business is 50:50 and 10:90 in terms of EBIDTA contribution. With an aim to restructure its online business the company had acquired LateRooms in Oct 2015 so as to re-organise the online business to create a common platform for both the sites with an aim to cross-sell. But recently the company got an exciting offer from a private equity player Malvern. The company sold Both LateRooms & SuperBreak for a net consideration of GBP22mn and reversed acquired 49% in the private equity firm. Hence ensuring to enjoy the future positives arising out of the synergies of both the websites. Historically this segment contributed~20% to the operating profits of the company with margins in the range of 25-30%. The continuing business is expected to grow at a steady rate of 3-4% over the next few years with margins moving up to ~40%+ over the next few years. Education Experiential Travel is ~26% of the revenues and contributes a third to the operating profits while clocking 40- 41% EBIDTA margins. This is a niche travel segment targeted at students. There are 2 offerings under this segment PGL & NST. PGL is the larger business targeted at mid school students and has 25 campuses spread across 1262 acres in UK, France and the recent foray in Australia. Majority of the business is driven by the UK markets where PGL has 40% market share. it has 10,200 beds to which the company plans to add 500 beads yearly. Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd. (CIN U67120KA2000PTC027628) SEBI Rgn. No. : INH200002739 No. 14, Frontline Granduer, Walton Road, Bangalore-560001; Website: www.way2wealth.com Email: [email protected] 21 April 2016 Way2wealth Research is also available on Bloomberg WTWL <GO> 6 Cox & Kings Ltd. INVESTMENT RATIONALE Education Experiential Travel (Cont.) It is a cash upfront business and is currently working at 33% capacity utilisation which is up from 27% in 2011 when the company was acquired.
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