ON THE HORIZON THE 21ST CENTURY’S HORSELESS BUGGIES How New Ways of Getting Around Change Society OTH IN BRIEF • Each time a new mode of transportation has been introduced and becomes popular, there have been battles on how to share the roads and walkways with the existing transportation. • Dedicated lanes by transportation time may alleviate some of the conflict. • Artificial intelligence, AI, is piloting everything from drones to delivery robots and cars. • AI is still buggy and can cause confusion or put people at risk when the AI tries to interact with the real Online Bicycle Museum world. • Human jobs will be displaced by AI Always Innovating vehicles, this will change the types of crimes seen. he first wheel and the first time a horse was ridden both occurred sometime around 3500 • AI vehicles rely on cameras to operate, B.C.99 By the late 1800s Britain had one creating a wide surveillance network horse for every ten people, America had one and raising privacy concerns. horse for every four people, and Australia Thad one horse for every two people.100 As the century wore on, new methods of travel began to emerge. With travel by car resulting in only 20 fatalities per terameter (1,000,000,000,000 meters), compared to the 180 fatalities per terameter for horseback riding, maybe it was no surprise that horses and horse-drawn vehicles found themselves banned from streets where cars were now free to roam, especially as the cost to own and operate a vehicle dropped below the cost of the equine models.101 20 | NCSC 2020 But before the car took over, another mode of transportation demanded some attention. On June 6, 1842, Kirkpatrick MacMillan, the gentleman son of a blacksmith and inventor of the modern pedal driven bicycle, mounted his geared dandy horse and set out for Glasgow, Scotland.102 Two days later, MacMillan reached Glasgow, where, upon maneuvering his bicycle through a crowd on the pavement, MacMillan was involved in the first bike accident.103 Sixty years later in 1901, “the first modern car in all essentials,” the Mercedes, had yet to turn its first corner when two modes of transportation once again faced off.104 On the streets of New York City, Henry Wells, behind his horseless wagon, came head to head with YouTube bicyclist Ebeling Thomas. This time the bicyclist was innovative way to avoid street traffic and the difficulty the loser, and Thomas was left with a broken leg.105 of finding a parking spot. While Segway struggled to These early battles resulted in disputes over access, gain traction with individuals, it has effectively been right of way, and liability for damages, disputes integrated into the tour industry. that were often settled in court. Over the decades these disputes settled into well-worn routines with The Segway is not the only advance in bi- predictable outcomes and fault established by the wheeled transportation. Electric scooters, like those numerous similar cases that came before them, but manufactured by Lime, Bird, Uber, and Lyft, have technology is interrupting those precedents. been taking over metropolitan areas across the world. A Baltimore newspaper called a new mode of transportation “a curious two-wheeled device... which is propelled by jackasses” while a New Haven, Connecticut, newspaper encouraged people to “seize, break, destroy, or convert to their own use as good prize, all such machines found running on the sidewalks.”106 Those Baltimore and New Haven newspaper articles are from over a hundred years ago when people were decrying the swarm of bicycles invading their towns.107 This same sentiment has been expressed about electric scooters. Although these vehicles are easy to access and ride, they have created many obstacles for both cars and pedestrians. Scooters are meant to be parked on sidewalks where people can easily find them, but this YouTube can be problematic for pedestrians when pathways are overcrowded. Some cities banned rental scooters New vehicles are once again being introduced entirely because they are so controversial.108 They to streets and sidewalks, changing the way traffic take up space, disrupt the regular flow of traffic, flows in cities and bustling suburban areas. One of and are difficult to regulate. Just as they did with the early advances as we moved into this new age MacMillan in the first days of the bike, courts are of vehicles and getting around was the Segway, a being called upon to step in and resolve disputes. two wheeled, self-propelled machine proposed as an OTH | 21 ON THE HORIZON New lanes, regulations, and legislation will take time, but self-driving cars are already being tested on the roadways, drones are delivering medical supplies by night, and grocery robots are approved to hit the streets in Houston.109 In other cities autonomous delivery vehicles have been fighting pedestrians for sidewalk space or elbowing their way into FAA-controlled airspace.110 YouTube In the U.S. and abroad, as new modes of transportation were developed and adopted authorities were forced to grapple with a way for multiple modes of transportation to coexist. One solution was the advent of a designated lane for bikes, a sidewalk for pedestrians, driving lanes for cars, HOV and HOT lanes, and even lanes specifically YouTube designated for commuters who take the bus. Another way was to limit the area types of transport are The coronavirus is giving us a glimpse into permitted to operate within, such as prohibiting how autonomous vehicles may be integrated into commercial trucks on some roads or banning our everyday lives. As U.S. cities have implemented bicycles on superhighways. Horses are limited to stay-at-home orders, autonomous vehicles stepped certain streets and roadways as appropriate for that in to transport groceries and medical supplies in a community. Electric scooters, bicycles, and walking sanitary, contact-free manner, and were even rolled are banned on super-highways. Electric scooters and out to help medical personnel. In Los Angeles people bike-share programs are further limited to certain could have their Chick-fil-a craving satisfied without regions within cities. Or where various modes of ever leaving the house.111 In China, autonomous transportation are permitted to share a roadway, vehicles were used to deliver food and medical rules define permissible behavior for each mode supplies to infected areas without risking human of transportation. Pedestrians have right of way in exposure.112 The quick switch to the new mode of a roadway, but only when crossing at a crosswalk transport revealed some of the hurdles still present with the light. Bicycles traveling outside of bicycle with the technology. lanes must obey the rules of the road as established for cars. One hurdle for autonomous vehicles is AI vehicles require complex mapping and determining how can they coexist with existing video systems to function, but this software is prone modes of transportation. If automated vehicles to making mistakes. AI is often used to transport humans and products, but it relies on preestablished become more mainstream municipalities may need maps to do so. Unfortunately, maps are not always to consider a new AI only lane, which permits the correct, and this could cause all kinds of issues for vehicles to operate without interference from human- consumers. Without direct human involvement it controlled modes of transportation. may be difficult or even impossible to correct AI gone awry in real time. For example, one woman found out 22 | NCSC 2020 that her home address showed up as two different The transition from human to AI is locations on Google maps.113 This created problems characterized by some as a new industrial revolution. for her Uber rides, deliveries, and even friends and As history teaches us, industrial revolutions change family. Or that Chick-fil-a autonomous delivery pod, the type and number of jobs available as machines it glitched, causing one hungry California to chase take over jobs from people. There is debate about his chicken for half an hour before finally conceding whether this brings an increase in crime. One area defeat.114 Imagine a scenario where a machine where historians agree is that the types of crimes or series of machines are solely responsible for change. During the late 1800s industrial revolution ensuring a delivery reaches its destination without in Britain, as people moved to the cities, trains the aid or oversight of a human. What happens if started crisscrossing the nation, goods were stored medical supplies never make it to their intended in abundance, fortunes were made and lost, and destination or if an autonomous vehicle brings a new workforce and standards were set. New crimes litigant or witness to the wrong address across town, and criminal patterns emerged requiring the police, causing them to miss a hearing? Is the passenger and the courts to determine how to protect, deter, to blame or will the court hold the AI vehicle in and punish in the face of these new crimes.118 For contempt, giving it personhood and barring it from example, today courts are well versed in dealing with accepting rides to the court? hiring and employment discrimination litigation when it is perpetrated by humans, but what happens if Integrating AI transportation into our lives machines are making the decisions?119 has impacts that reach far beyond the roadway. With the introduction of autonomous vehicles comes the replacement of many human jobs. If cars become fully driverless, then taxi, Uber, and Lyft drivers become obsolete. Similarly, over two million people who are employed in the truck transportation industry may lose their jobs.115 City and school bus drivers potentially could be replaced as well as train conductors, subway operators, and others.