Instrumental Variables and Causal Mechanisms: Unpacking the Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES AND CAUSAL MECHANISMS: UNPACKING THE EFFECT OF TRADE ON WORKERS AND VOTERS Christian Dippel Robert Gold Stephan Heblich Rodrigo Pinto Working Paper 23209 http://www.nber.org/papers/w23209 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 March 2017, Revised April 2017 We thank David Autor, Sascha Becker, Gilles Duranton, Jon Eguia, Andreas Ferrara, Paola Giuliano, Tarek Hassan, Kosuke Imai, Ralf Meisenzahl, Ralph Ossa, Anne Otto, David Pacini, Nicola Persico, Giacomo Ponzetto, Daniel Sturm, Peter Schott, Dan Trefler, Dan Treisman, Nico Voigtländer, Wouter Vermeulen, Till von Wachter, Romain Wacziarg, Frank Windmeijer, Yanos Zylberberg, and seminar participants at Bristol, Kiel, the LMU, the LSE, Toronto, UCLA,Warwick, the 2013 Urban Economics Association and German Economists Abroad Meetings, the 2015 Quebec Political Economy conference, and the 2016 EEA conference for valuable comments and discussions. We thank Wolfgang Dauth for sharing the crosswalk from product classifications to industry classifications in the German IAB data. Dippel acknowledges financial support from UCLA’s Center for Global Management. This paper builds on an earlier working paper titled “Globalization and its (Dis-)Content.” The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2017 by Christian Dippel, Robert Gold, Stephan Heblich, and Rodrigo Pinto. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source.
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