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ECONOMIC BULLETIN Short Term Has No Future ECONOMIC BULLETIN Short term has no future 1/28/2011 № DEB-2011.01-03 Economic News • Russia's unemployment hit its highest in seven-months in December but remained well below 2009 highs and looked unlikely to deter the central bank from raising interest rates to fight inflation. The number of unemployed in Russia was 5.39 mln at the end of December, taking the jobless rate to 7.2% from November's 6.7% the previous month, exceeding analysts' forecasts of a 6.8% rate. The data underscores the fragility of the Russian economy's recovery since it suffered its deepest recession in 15 years, hit by the slump in the prices of key exports metals and oil in the wake of the global economic crisis. But, despite blips, the recovery continues. For 2010 as a whole, unemployment averaged 7.5%, higher than the 7% percent forecast by analysts but a definite improvement on the six-year peak of 8.6% recorded in 2009. As such, analysts said the CBR would likely continue to focus more on containing runaway inflation and follow up December's hike in deposit rates with further monetary tightening as soon as its end-January meeting. "It (unemployment spike) is a short-term trend ... and it does not mean that the recovery will deteriorate further," analysts said. "Trade and industrial output data show that the fourth quarter will be better after the 'burnt-out' third quarter due to the weather. "There is a very high chance that the interest rates will continue to be raised... Will it happen in January? Most likely. Inflation has deteriorated (since the last meeting)". Consumer prices rose 1.4% in the first 17 days of January, faster than the 1.2% increase seen a year ago. PRICE WORRIES. Officials from the CBR and the EconMin have acknowledged that it will be tough to meet the 2011 inflation target of 6-7%. Inflation is also cited as a top popular concern in opinion polls and the government is likely to want to get prices under control before Russians go to parliamentary polls in December. One glimmer of hope though comes from producer prices, which rose just 1%, month-on-month, in December against forecasts of 2.5%. "PPI is a forward-looking indicator for consumer prices, we estimate the lag between them at 6 months. Therefore inflation should slow down in the middle of 2011, if you do not take into account other external risks," analysts said. In year-on-year terms though their inflation accelerated to 16.7% from the 16% seen in November. / Thomson Reuters Russian inflation may exceed 8% in 2011, surpassing the government forecast of 6 to 7%, RIA news agency quoted a deputy EM as saying on Monday (24 Jan), raising pressure for interest- rate hikes. Russia's consumer prices have grown rapidly since the start of the year after the government failed to meet its inflation target for 2010, building up more pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy. Russian inflation was 8.8% in 2010 versus initial expectations of a 6 to 7% increase. "There is a risk that inflation this year will be higher than the estimate included in the (government) forecast and budget and go beyond 7-8%," RIA quoted Andrei Klepach as saying on Tuesday. Klepach said prices would stop growing and possibly even fall in early summer once the inflationary effects of last summer's drought and poor harvest have faded. "But this will only happen after the effect of the drought ends and the new harvest comes to the market. It is difficult to predict now how global prices will behave," Klepach was quoted as saying. The CBR first deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said last week that the 6 to 7% inflation target would be "very difficult" to meet, saying inflation risks in the first half of 2011 were higher than risks to the country's growth rate. Analysts expect the CBR to use a combination of reserve requirements, interest rates and other tools to curb inflation. The CBR, which raised deposit rates by 25 bps in December to 2.75%, is due to meet before the end of the month. Last week, Russia's EM Elvira Nabiullina said inflation in January would be 2.1 to 2.3%. Traditionally, an inflation spike occurs in January due to one-time annual increases in the cost of services like transport, water and heating. / Thomson Reuters 1 ECONOMIC BULLETIN Short term has no future 1/28/2011 • Russia's December industrial output rose 6.3% compared with a year ago, and was up 4.3% in month-on-month terms, the FSS said on Monday (24 Jan). Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 6.2% increase in output in December, year-on-year. For 2010 as a whole, industrial output rose 8.2% after a fall of 9.3% in 2009. / Thomson Reuters • Russia may impose a maximum price level for some foods, such as potatoes, as it faces elevating inflationary pressure after a summer draught ruined a third of the country's harvest, a senior official said on Monday (24 Jan). "This is a tool that can be used and I do not exclude that this kind of constraint could be necessary to use this year for potatoes, for fruit and vegetables," deputy EM Andrei Klepach was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency. He said, however, that such proposals have not been discussed yet by the government. "I just do not exclude this, and it is envisaged by the legislation that we can use this kind of means," Klepach said. Parliamentary elections are due in December, and high prices are cited by voters as a top concern in opinion polls. Capital investment, meanwhile, rose 5.9% in 2010, in line with latest government forecasts and twice as fast as officials had initially expected, EM Elvira Nabiullina told President Dmitry Medvedev. / Thomson Reuters • The IMF has revised its 2011 outlook for Russia, expecting GDP to grow 4.5 pct vs 4.3 pct predicted in Oct last year, which tops the government forecast of 4.2 pct. After weathering the most rapid contraction in a decade in 2009, when GDP fell 7.9 pct, Russia is recovering, and thus giving the c.bank room to hike interest rates to curb inflationary risks. A hike in rates, widely expected by end of Jan., should boost the rouble, raising its appeal for carry trade. / Thomson Reuters Global Economy • The EBRD revised up its emerging Europe 2011 growth forecast to 4.2% on Monday (24 Jan), but said downside risks to the region had increased. The bank forecast 4.1% growth for 2011 in October. The EBRD kept its estimates for 2010 growth unchanged at 4.2%. "Stronger than anticipated growth in the core euro zone, fiscal and monetary stimuli in the U.S., and rising commodity prices are likely to boost growth across the region in an increasingly private sector-led recovery," the EBRD said in a statement. "Risks could emerge if loose monetary policies fuel persistently higher inflation in advanced countries, leading in turn to an earlier than anticipated monetary tightening by major central banks." Emerging Europe was also at risk from a rise in risk aversion due to the euro zone debt crisis, from policies in eastern Europe such as cutting back private pension funds or increasing bank taxes and from the possibility of trade wars, the EBRD said. Hungary and Poland have unnerved investors in recent months with the use of unorthodox measures to rein in budget deficits. The bank sees 3.2% growth in 2011 in Central Europe and the Baltics, 4% in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, 5% in Turkey, 4.6% in Russia, 6.6% in Central Asia but only 1.9% in Southeastern Europe. Russia is the largest economy in which the EBRD operates. "The outlook for growth in Russia is good, but remains highly dependent on oil and other commodity price developments, as well as on global sentiment affecting capital flows to emerging markets," the EBRD said. The EBRD supports the transition of mainly former communist countries in eastern Europe to market economies, largely through investments in the private sector. It invested a record EUR 9 bln in the region last year. / Thomson Reuters • People in emerging economies are far more confident about the financial outlook than those in older economies, with 78% of Brazilians optimistic compared with just 4% of French people, a survey shows. Of the 24 countries polled by Ipsos, people in Brazil were clearly the most confident that the economy will be stronger in the next six months. India came in second, with 61%, followed by Saudi Arabia at 47% and China at 44%, according to 'The Economic Pulse of the World' poll, carried out in December. After France, the least optimistic countries were Japan, Hungary and Britain, raising questions about long-term spending habits there. "People are not in the 2 ECONOMIC BULLETIN Short term has no future 1/28/2011 doldrums like they were in 2009. But there's only tepid confidence at this point," said Cliff Young, pollster at Ipsos Public Affairs, referring to overall global sentiment. The outlook for the global economy will be top of the agenda at the World Economic Forum in Davos, which runs from 26-30 Jan. Germany, whose economy grew last year at its fastest pace since reunification, was the most optimistic country in Europe. Even so, just 27% of Germans thought the economy would strengthen further. Despite the country's 2010 bounceback from recession, consumer spending has stayed modest.
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