WE MAKE T HERE GRAND ERIE
Local Labour Market Plan Update 2020-2021 RECALIBRATING: BUILDING A ROBUST WORKFORCE IN GRAND ERIE OUR VISION A skilled, resilient workforce contributing to dynamic communities and their economies
This project is funded in part by the Government of Canada and the Government of Ontario. The views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Ontario. The material in this report has been prepared by WPBGE and is drawn from a variety of sources considered to be reliable. We make no representations or warranty, expressed or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. In providing this material, WPBGE does not assume any responsibility or liability.
Prepared by: Danette Dalton, Executive Director, Workforce Planning Board of Grand Erie; Wynona Mendes, Labour Market Analyst, Workforce Planning Board of Grand Erie; Bob Seguin, Advisor, Workforce Planning Board of Grand Erie; Mark Skeffington, Editor, Workforce Planning Board of Grand Erie.
Graphic Design: Cath Strung, Strung Design House Inc. Translation: Lisette Martineau, Translations Paris Traductions Cover photograph: Courtesy Haldimand County; Page 4 photograph courtesy Norfolk County CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 EMPLOYMENT SERVICES 38 Introduction and Methodology 6 Grand Erie 38 TRANSPORTATION 39 The Grand Erie Labour Force Grand Erie 39 Year in Review 2020-2021 8 MIGRATION 41 ABOUT THE LABOUR FORCE 8 Migration Patterns 41 Population 8 HOUSING 42 EMPLOYMENT 9 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) 42 Grand Erie Labour force characteristics 9 Western Ontario Wardens Caucus (WOWC) 43 Demographic Trends: Gender 10 A Place to Grow 43 Demographic Trends: Age 11 Brantford-Brant Mayors’ Housing Partnerships Task Force . . . . . 44 GRAND ERIE COVID-19 RECOVERY 12 Scenario Planning (OLMP) 12 Workforce Planning Board of Grand Erie WPBGE Worker Impact Survey Results 14 Project Review 2020-2021 45 HEALTH AND WELLNESS 16 Marketing and Communications 45 Grand Erie COVID-19 Case Profiles 16 Skilled Trade Awareness 46 Made in Grand Erie Wellness 17 Workforce Transportation 46 Skills2Advance: Manufacturing and Warehousing 47 GRAND ERIE RECOVERY TASK FORCE PRIORITIES 18 Business Supports Working Group 18 Workforce Planning Board of Grand Erie Economic Development Working Group 19 Action Plan 2021-2022 48 Skills Development Working Group 19 Education Working Group 20 WORKFORCE SUPPORT 49 Work/Life Balance in Grand Erie 49 EDUCATION, SKILLS & TRAINING 21 Educational Attainment by Gender 21 WORKFORCE SKILLS 49 Skills Composition of Grand Erie’s Workforce 21 Grand Erie Workforce Succession Strategy 49 Training in Grand Erie 23 WORKFORCE RESOURCES 50 INDUSTRY 24 Grand Erie Workforce Hub 50 General Industry Trends in Brantford CMA 24 WPBGE LOCAL LABOUR MARKET PLAN 50 Top Sectors in Grand Erie by Employment 24 Employment Planning Advisory Committee 50 Top Sectors in Grand Erie by Business Count 25 Partnership Project Review 50 Spotlight on Manufacturing in Grand Erie 27 Spotlight on Healthcare & Social Assistance in Grand Erie 28 Appendices 51 Spotlight on Wholesale & Retail Trade in Grand Erie 29 APPENDIX A 51 Spotlight on Construction in Grand Erie 30 Employment Planning Advisory Committee 51 Spotlight on Educational Services in Grand Erie 31 Spotlight on Accommodation & Food Services Grand Erie 32 APPENDIX B 52 Spotlight on Agriculture in Grand Erie 33 Grand Erie COVID-19 Recovery Task Force Members 52 OCCUPATIONS 35 APPENDIX C 53 2020 Employment by Occupations in Brantford CMA 35 Grand Erie Recovery Task Force Priorities 53 Trends in Key Occupations 35 APPENDIX D 58 Top Occupational Groups in Growth 36 Grand Erie Area Schools and Continuing Education 58 Top Occupational Groups in Decline 36 Top Occupations in Demand 37 5-Year Income Trends 37 Income by Gender 37 3 2020-2021 LOCAL LABOUR MARKET PLAN UPDATE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Wow, 2020 was quite a year! It’s been a year of great Six Nations of the Grand River and Mississaugas of the Credit challenge for all of us. And for some, it has been First Nation communities have a unique relationship with a time of reprieve and rest the land, its resources and the workforce, which continues to as the world around us slowed shape the history and economy of the area today. The WPBGE down. No matter how it has recognizes the unique role that Indigenous peoples have had affected you, we all find and will continue to have in the growth and development of ourselves recalibrating. the Grand Erie area.
The Workforce Planning From across our great nation from Signal Hill, to Ellesmere Board of Grand Erie (WPBGE) Island to Victoria Island, and right across the globe, the Board of Directors and Staff pandemic that began in 2020 brought new rituals to all of us. are proud to serve the communities of Six Nations of the From how we run our businesses, and households and conduct Grand River, Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation, Brant, our classrooms, and everything in between we all continue Haldimand and Norfolk counties and the City of Brantford, in to adapt. However you view or perceive the pandemic, there the Province of Ontario, Canada. has been a huge impact on people’s lives, livelihood, work and job market. We have lost loved ones, we have lost jobs and businesses. We have lost a life we once knew.
Through all of this we have shared the experience…no one is immune. We have shared the same news feeds and have relied more than ever on that “little” invention by Alexander Graham Bell.
WE MAKE T HERE GRAND ERIE 4 RECALIBRATING: BUILDING A ROBUST WORKFORCE IN GRAND ERIE Even with advanced technology and telephones, the As a result of the pandemic, businesses are reporting pandemic has reminded us of how important the essentials that many of the soft skills such as good communication of life truly are, such as our loved ones, healthcare, the food skills and digital literacy are still in-demand. As businesses chain and employment to support ourselves and the needs recalibrate, they are also identifying skills in-demand that of our families. have increased significantly to adapt to the future of work. Some of these skills are: adaptability/flexibility; resilience; Public health data indicates that COVID-19 cases within teamwork/interpersonal skills; and customer relations. the Grand Erie area in 2020 were not as widespread as in Parents, workforce, educators and trainers, must continue surrounding regions such as Hamilton, Waterloo Region to work together holistically to pass on the skills and and Guelph. Case counts, however, have been on the rise, knowledge that is required to keep the foundation of our in long term care homes, hospitals and schools. Our local communities strong and healthy. healthcare institutions find themselves recalibrating every minute of every day as the virus changes and develops. Thank you to our Provincial and Federal leaders for your tireless efforts this year, and for all the support you have Many of the healthcare job postings in 2020 took particularly given us in 2020. None of this is easy. long to fill. The healthcare system is under great pressure, and it points to the fragility of human life and the To all of the communities we serve, the local governments importance that must be placed on health and well-being. and staff, partner agencies and educational institutions that We all have a role to play in taking a holistic approach to keep our communities safe and operational, thank you for health and well-being, and the value of work in healthcare your partnership and support this year with everything we do. cannot be understated. To all essential workers, in all sectors we thank you for Agriculture is one of the largest sectors in Grand Erie. your courage and hard work! To all members of the Grand Ontario’s Garden is a place that many Norfolk residents Erie Workforce, thank you. Thank you for looking after the call home. Grand Erie’s Agriculture industry is robust in community, your families and yourself. Brant, Haldimand and Norfolk counties. This industry was My hope for all of Grand Erie in 2021 is health and prosperity. hit hard this year as much of their workforce comes from Take some time to discover all the amazing things we have away each spring. With less foreign workers travelling and make, right here in Grand Erie. Support local. from other countries, many Grand Erie residents rolled up their sleeves and helped out on many local farms in On behalf of the WPBGE Board of Directors and team of staff, 2020… experience or no, people wanted to help and learn. take care. Look after yourselves. Look after each other. We A crash course for some members of the workforce and are all the future. When all else is lost, the future still remains. farm operators, but the shining light here is that people Tomorrow is a new day. Let’s take it one day at a time. We responded to the call for help. And not only were new skills have the flexibility and tenacity to bounce back from this. developed, but a new appreciation was also formed for skills they may not have known or understood before. We are surrounded by the farms that feed and fuel us every day. Danette Dalton Local investment in agricultural resources and technology Danette Dalton, Executive Director and skill development is essential to our future prosperity 519 -756 -1116 x227 [email protected] and wellness.
Grand Erie has many learning and training opportunities that are becoming more informed with local business data, and skill development opportunities to better prepare the workforce. More and more organizations are recalibrating The #LightItBlue initiative originated in the United Kingdom (early spring 2020) when over and partnering on educational, skill development and 100 landmarks were lit with blue light. The blue job creation projects. All these efforts benefit the local font used throughout this document recognizes economy and promote a greater quality of life. the “Light it Blue” campaign of 2020 and beyond as a colourful thank you to frontline and essential workers. Monotone photography is used throughout the document in memory of 2020. 8 QEW 5 ANCASTER-DUNDAS- 401 24 HAMILTON FLAMBOROUGH- WESTDALE 8
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INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Background The Grand Erie Local Labour Market Plan is an annual systematic process that involves all community stakeholders document that is funded by the Province of Ontario, and to proactively plan to avoid gaps in talent, develop training the Government of Canada and provides an overview of the programs, and align with other community priorities to ensure state of the current workforce in Grand Erie and aims to plan a synergistic approach. for the future workforce. The area referred to as Grand Erie Forecasting and planning for talent needs will help ensure includes the communities of Six Nations of the Grand River, communities and businesses can maintain future success. Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation, Counties of Brant, Simply reacting to events is not a recipe for success. Preparing Haldimand and Norfolk and the City of Brantford. The Grand for the inevitable helps mitigate negative impacts on Erie Local Labour Market Plan is one of 26 Local Labour Market communities, businesses, and workforce. Planning in this way Plans produced annually in the Province of Ontario. ultimately results in lower turnover rates, lower labour costs, Workforce planning is key to community building, quality of less need for layoffs, smoother shift schedules, and helps life and economic development. Workforce data provides to maintain workforce morale and productivity. It can help Return-on-Investment (ROI) evidence for workforce and explain why the workforce is not engaged, performing at their workforce training related decisions; it also offers insight on best and what factors are impacting productivity. All of this future workforce planning. Workforce planning is not just the leads to a better quality of life for all. responsibility of any one human resource department, it is a 6 RECALIBRATING: BUILDING A ROBUST WORKFORCE IN GRAND ERIE This Local Labour Market Plan will present a snapshot of Consultations Grand Erie’s labour market in 2020 and look ahead to 2021. The Grand Erie Employment Planning Advisory Committee The Grand Erie area is home to a diverse set of employers, (EPAC) is comprised of individuals representing education, and employees, all of whom were impacted in many ways by community services, economic development, local the global coronavirus pandemic. This report delves into the government, and local businesses across the Grand Erie area. many labour market shifts that took place leading up to, and Collectively, these individuals work together to prioritize during, 2020. key issues and develop solutions. In addition to the EPAC consultations, the following working groups were established Labour Market Statistics to help inform workforce priorities and concerns: A variety of recognized data sources are used to inform our • The Grand Erie COVID-19 Recovery Task Force Meetings knowledge about industry trends, occupational demand, (A sub committee of the LLMP EPAC) including two population, migration and labour force supply conditions. community surveys These sources include, but are not limited to: • The Grand Erie Agricultural Task Force • Labour Force Survey Data • The WPBGE Marketing Strategy Project • Grand Erie Jobs – Job Demand and Job Search Data • The Grand Erie Job Fair and Skills Exploration Event • Canadian Business Counts Data • The WPBGE Transportation Survey • Census 2016 Data • Employment Ontario Annual Data • Vicinity • EMSI • Regional Economic Development Strategies
Photo courtesy Norfolk County
WE MAKE T HERE GRAND ERIE 7 2020-2021 LOCAL LABOUR MARKET PLAN UPDATE The Grand Erie Labour Force Year in Review 2020-2021
The Year of the Coronavirus Pandemic ABOUT THE LABOUR FORCE
POPULATION
Grand Erie is home to more than 270,000 residents according Regionally, the City of Brantford and Six Nations has a to 2019 population estimates, with a slightly higher proportion significantly younger population when compared to the rest of females (51%). of Grand Erie.
Grand Erie’s population is aging. As of 2019, the average age Population Changes in Grand Erie of Brant CD’s residents was 41, and that of Haldimand-Norfolk According to StatCan’s population estimates1, between was 43.5. Across all regions, younger core-working age adults 2016-2020, the population of Grand Erie grew by (aged 25 to 44) make up the smallest proportion of the approximately 6%, or 15,000 residents. population, while older adults (aged 50 to 65) make up the largest population group. 300,000 Brant 0 to 4 years Haldimand-Norfolk 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 250,000 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years Male 200,000 Female 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 150,000 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 100,000 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years
65 to 69 years 50,000 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 85 years and over
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 1 Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0139-01 Population estimates, July 1, by census division, 2016 8 Source: 2016 Census Custom Tables boundaries (https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710013901) RECALIBRATING: BUILDING A ROBUST WORKFORCE IN GRAND ERIE EMPLOYMENT
GRAND ERIE LABOUR FORCE CHARACTERISTICS
The tables below present an overview of Grand Erie’s labour market between 2016 and 2020. The last two columns provide an indication of how our labour market has changed over the last five years, and how much of that is attributable to COVID-19 related changes in the employment landscape.
Brantford census metropolitan area (CMA)* Change Change 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 since 2016 since 2019 Persons Labour force participation 74,700 76,000 74,600 82,200 79,400 + 4,700 - 2,800 Employment 70,200 72,300 70,000 78,700 72,800 + 2,600 - 5,900 Full time employment 56,700 58,700 57,600 63,900 59,500 + 2,800 - 4,400 Part time employment 13,500 13,600 12,400 14,800 13,400 -100 -1,400 Unemployment 4,500 3,700 4,600 3,500 6,500 + 2,000 + 3,000 Not in labour force 38,400 38,600 41,800 36,000 40,200 +1,800 + 4,200 Percentage Unemployment rate 6.0 4.9 6.2 4.3 8.2 Up 2.2 Up 3.9 Participation rate 66.0 66.3 64.1 69.5 66.4 Up 0.4 Down 3.1 Employment rate 62.1 63.1 60.1 66.6 60.9 Down 1.2 Down 5.7
* Excludes data for Haldimand-Norfolk census area
Norfolk CA Change Change 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 since 2016 since 2019 Persons Labour force participation 31,900 31,600 31,900 32,700 32,500 +600 -200 Employment 29,600 30,000 30,000 30,700 29,600 0 -1100 Unemployment 2,300 1,500 1,900 2,000 2,900 +600 +900 Not in labour force 20,200 19,900 19,600 23,600 25,200 +5,000 +1,600 Percentage Unemployment rate 7.2 4.7 6.0 6.1 8.9 Up 1.7 Up 2.8 Participation rate 61.2 61.5 61.9 58.2 56.3 Down 4.9 Down 1.9 Employment rate 56.8 58.4 58.3 54.6 51.3 Down 5.5 Down 3.3
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0391-01 Labour force characteristics, annual
In November 2019, Brantford CMA hit a record low sector and among manufacturing and construction jobs. unemployment rate of 3.1%. Within the same timeframe, the Meanwhile, occupations in health and education increased number of jobs in Norfolk CA dropped by around 700, raising slightly. In June 2020, pandemic related business closures the unemployment rate to 6% (+ 0.3% since 2018). brought the unemployment rate up to 12.7% in Brantford CMA and 10.2% in Norfolk CA. During the early months of COVID-19, employment dropped significantly across almost all sectors in Brantford CMA. Businesses began to recover during the summer and fall Between January and May 2020, almost 9,000 jobs were lost of 2020, with employment almost at January 2020 levels in the Grand Erie area, much of which were within our service according to StatCan’s December LFS data. The Workforce 9 2020-2021 LOCAL LABOUR MARKET PLAN UPDATE Planning Board of Grand Erie highlighted just some of the of the pandemic in 2020 to help drive the relatively strong resilient businesses and their workforce in a January 2021 gains in Grand Erie employment throughout 2020. However, local news feature called “Workforce Heroes”. Apotex many of these job gains were not in the same sectors or Pharmachem, Battlefield International, Brooks Signs, occupations as the jobs lost. These will be examined in Hometown Brew and Six Nations of the Grand River greater detail in the following sections. Development Corporation quickly pivoted at the beginning
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: GENDER
Males Females In 2019, males made up 59% of all full-time workers and 29% More part-time work within Brantford CMA was taken up by of all part-time workers. While male part time work increased females, who made up 71% of the part-time workforce and slightly in 2020, male full-time employment remained 41% of the full-time workforce. stagnant. This uneven distribution of work has been amplified by the While male employment is beginning to plateau, recent LFS pandemic; female part-time employment grew in 2020 at a data indicates that male participation may be on the rise, fairly steep rate. Meanwhile, many females in full-time work mirroring national trends. lost their jobs.
LFS data suggests that some male-dominated industries Female employment has been on the increase because of – such as manufacturing, construction and transportation these part-time workers, but the participation rate appears and warehousing – are on the decline, as a result of which to be trending downwards, signaling that some women are some males – namely tradespeople – have lost work. Given leaving the labour force because of difficulties finding suitable the seasonal nature of male-dominated industries like employment or challenges balancing other responsibilities construction and agriculture, some males may struggle to like childcare. find suitable work in the winter months of 2020-2021. Some female-dominated industries – such as education and accommodation and food services – grew in 2020, and with it, so has female employment. That said, much of this employment is within part-time work, and in lower-skilled jobs, despite the fact that our female workforce is more highly educated.
Photo: Vandenberg Farms courtesy Brant County
WE MAKE T HERE GRAND ERIE 10 RECALIBRATING: BUILDING A ROBUST WORKFORCE IN GRAND ERIE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE
Youth The number of seniors employed moved in the opposite While it is typical for unemployment among youth (aged 15 direction, with labour force trends highlighting small, but to 24) to drop in the summer months, a significantly larger consistent declines since April 2020. Given the higher proportion of youth remained unemployed during the likelihood of COVID-19 affecting those 65+, it is likely that summer of 2020; the Labour Force Survey estimated that this there exists some reluctance in the labour market, both year’s local youth unemployment rate was almost double among employers who are hesitant about hiring from an that of 2019. at-risk group, and among laid-off seniors, who have been advised to take public health precautions seriously. As of late 2020, our region’s youth have begun reentering the labour market. Many continue to be absent from the labour Future Trends/Challenges force, but others are starting to look for work again and many An examination of sex and age related labour force survey have been successful in this endeavor. Both participation trends reveal, quite clearly, that COVID-19 has affected some and employment increased, but these continue to remain groups more than others. It is integral that the most impacted below pre-pandemic levels as of December 2020. It is worth groups: such as part-time female workers, youth, and males noting, however, that almost all of these employment gains in low-skilled occupations are given the support they need amongst youth have been in part-time work. While full-time to re-skill for emerging jobs and are successfully re-integrated employment among young males is gradually increasing again into the labour market in the coming months. This is reliant – due in large part to gains in wholesale and retail trade sectors on a thorough understanding of industry and occupational – full-time employment among young females has stagnated. trends, occupations typically held by marginalized groups and the obstacles they face to alternate opportunities. Core-Working Age Adults Local unemployment drops in the core working age Gap Analysis group have been fairly low throughout the course of 2020. There are many reskilling opportunities available in the Brantford CMA’s unemployment rate grew less drastically community that cater to prominent business sectors in when compared to surrounding regions, and has decreased Grand Erie. What remains a struggle for most members of the consistently after peaking in May. In December 2020, full-time workforce is their ability to participate in the training. Either and part time employment within this group appeared similar time, finances and/or family commitments will stand in the to the same month in 2019. Gender data, however, reveals way of educational opportunities. some differences. Many men lost their full-time jobs in sectors like manufacturing and construction, as a result of COVID-19 Reskilling opportunities will provide an increased knowledge related closures. Meanwhile, among women, part-time and understanding of a skill set, but time and experience is workers were disproportionately affected. Two (2) of every also required to gain the confidence that most employers three (3) females that lost their jobs in March were previously seek when hiring. Businesses would benefit from a robust employed in part-time work, presumably in sectors where this orientation and training program within their facility and/or type of work is more common – like accommodations, food partnering with local skill development programs and post- services and retail. Sectoral employment changes are further secondary institutions to provide more experiential training examined in the section below. and learning opportunities. Care and support is something all members of the Older Adults and Seniors workforce need. Some people have a strong support Among adults aged 55 to 64, employment grew following system to rely on. Others have few options. Where there a dip in the spring. While not as many older adults have are few options, there is a weak foundation. Cracks in the returned to part time work, full-time older workers increased foundation leave the workforce and the community unwell, in the final months of 2020, surpassing employment levels at and it potentially leaves those they care for in the same the same time last year. Older females, in particular, took on circumstance. Prioritizing well-being, and self-care must be many new jobs from June onwards. This may be indicative of at the foundation of everything we do. The most vulnerable underlying financial needs among our older adults and their members of our community depend on it. families, coupled with a hiring climate that prefers experience, and the soft skills that come with it. 11 2020-2021 LOCAL LABOUR MARKET PLAN UPDATE GRAND ERIE COVID-19 RECOVERY
SCENARIO PLANNING (OLMP)
In the months leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, the COVID-19 Economic Recovery Plans will be robust, Grand Erie’s labour force was faced with a complex set of comprehensive, and capable of withstanding all future challenges. As a result of skills mismatches and growing scenarios. barriers to employment, certain businesses and labour force Between March and June 2020, over 2,500 jobs were segments were strained. These pre-existing conditions, lost in Brantford CMA alone, primarily in manufacturing, coupled with the drastic shifts to employment triggered construction, and transportation and warehousing. Many by the pandemic, will have lasting impacts on the region’s of these individuals were core-working age adults in full- employment landscape and its economy. time jobs. To provide context, Ontario lost around 108,500 Scenario planning allows us to examine the potential employees in those sectors between March and June. impacts that may be faced by various labour market groups Meanwhile, some industries gained jobs during this period and to prepare for these changes by developing the including the agricultural sector, healthcare, the finance appropriate supports. sector and public administration. Benefits of scenario-based planning: From an occupational perspective, the majority of job • Provides framework for managing the unprecedented losses during the first few months of the pandemic were uncertainty posed by COVID-19. within intermediate (Skill level C) occupations. Meanwhile, managerial/professional (Skill level A) and labouring • Supports proactive decision-making by identifying occupations (Skill level D) grew in the early months of the challenges, opportunities, and potential actions well in pandemic. advance. • Encourages a holistic and collaborative approach to As of December 2020, both Brantford’s employment and planning that manages system complexity and ensures participation rates have returned to pre-pandemic levels, and
WE MAKE T HERE GRAND ERIE 12 RECALIBRATING: BUILDING A ROBUST WORKFORCE IN GRAND ERIE Skill Level A Management and Professional Occupations remain higher than the provincial rates, signalling that the EMPLOYMENT SHIFTS BY SKILL LEVEL IN region is recovering faster than surrounding communities. BRANTFORD CMA However, the impact that the pandemic has had on certain sectors and populations remains significant. Skill Level B
As lock-down restrictions were lifted during the summer and fall months, the external drivers of employment in Technical, Paraprofessional and Skilled Occupations Grand Erie became more apparent. While employment in the service sector bounced back, employment in the goods-producing sector continued to drop. Skill Level C
EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR IN BRANTFORD CMA Intermediate Occupations
Services-producing sector Skill Level D Skill Level A Management and Professional Occupations DEC AN FEB AR A R A UN Skill UL AUGLevel SE B OCT NO DEC Labouring and Elemental Occupations Technical, Paraprofessional and Skilled Occupations