’S POLITICS: THE SUNNI COMMUNITY AND HARIRI’S FUTURE CURRENT

Middle East Report N°96 – 26 May 2010

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... i

I. INTRODUCTION ...... 1

II. THE SUNNI COMMUNITY IN THE AGE OF THE FUTURE CURRENT ...... 2 A. : THE GENESIS OF A CURRENT AND A PROJECT ...... 2 B. AND THE SUNNI COMMUNITY’S REPOSITIONING...... 5 1. Breaking with ...... 5 2. Turning inward...... 7 3. Turning toward the West ...... 7 4. Joining the “moderate” axis ...... 9 5. Sectarian divisions ...... 10 C. A PARADOXICAL NEW BALANCE OF POWER ...... 13 D. THE FUTURE CURRENT’S POLITICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL WEAKNESSES ...... 17

III. THE SCOPE AND LIMITS OF SUNNI POLITICAL DIVERSITY ...... 19 A. LOCAL PERSONALITIES ...... 19 B. SUNNI ...... 21 1. Dar al-Fatwa (House of Religious Edicts) ...... 22 2. Jamaa Islamiyya ...... 23 3. Salafis ...... 24

IV. CONCLUSION ...... 30 APPENDICES A. MAP OF LEBANON ...... 31 B. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP ...... 32 C. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON AND NORTH AFRICA SINCE 2007 ...... 33 D. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES ...... 34

Middle East Report N°96 26 May 2010

LEBANON’S POLITICS: THE SUNNI COMMUNITY AND HARIRI’S FUTURE CURRENT

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The June 2009 swearing in as prime minister of Saad ability. The result was a massive, overwhelming instinct Hariri, leader of the Sunni Future Current movement, of communal solidarity among Sunnis, who rallied around marks a turning point, the end of a period of exceptional Rafic’s son and dramatically shifted national, regional domestic political turbulence and regional tensions that and international alliances. The community joined forces began with the 2005 murder of his father, Rafic; led to with its historical foes, anti-Syrian Christian parties. It institutional paralysis; and culminated with the violent turned against a traditional ally, , now seeing its May 2008 showdown between government and opposi- struggle with Syria as a conflict between two incompati- tion. It also presents the new leader with a host of novel ble visions for the country. And, for the first time in its challenges. The man who took the helm of a once deeply history, it turned toward the West, partners in a perceived divided Sunni community must discard much of what life-or-death battle against Syria, Hizbollah and . enabled his rise, if he is to succeed now that he is in power. With Hizbollah, the principal Shiite movement, he Of all, the most striking transformation in Sunni attitudes must move away from the sectarianism that has become since 2005 has been the exacerbation of sectarian feelings Lebanon’s political stock-and-trade. The Future Current and hostility toward Shiites, nurtured by deepened re- should initiate the process of becoming a more genuine, gional sectarian divisions following the fall of the Iraqi institutionalised party, breaking from the clientelism that regime. Tensions existed in the past, but for the most part will otherwise inhibit the prime minister’s transition from they had remained dormant or, if expressed, quickly con- community leader to statesman. And Hariri must continue tained. There were several turning points: Hariri’s assas- to navigate the difficult normalisation with Syria, over- sination; subsequent expressions of pro-Syrian sentiment coming deep mistrust among his constituency toward by Hizbollah and Amal; the 2006 war with , which Damascus. many Sunnis blamed on Hizbollah and which highlighted the Shiite movement’s troublesome military might; and, Upon his father’s