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Issue 12 The Headlines of Today. The Battles of Tomorrow. Est – 2016 ‘ Homeland’ vs. ‘Greek Lake’

A HAF Mirage 2000 BGM.

Long simmering tensions buzzing a carrying encounter and perhaps even A long history between Greece and the country’s defence minister unwritten ‘rules’ to reduce the This latest encounter over now threaten to explode - which had been flying over risk of an accidental. These aer- the Aegean thus has long his- into outright conflict in the Greek islands in the eastern ial provocations have resulted tory as the location of territo- Aegean. Aegean. in several dogfights between rial disputes between Greece In early May 2020 a video While the HUD tape may ap- Greek and Turkish fighters over and Turkey, which twice in 1987 surfaced of an aerial engage- pear these aircraft were engaged the years, beginning from 1974 and 1996 has almost resulted ment over the - with in a real dogfight, at least one during the Turkish invasion of in outright conflict between the a Turkish F-16 caught analyst noted that the lack of a Cyprus when two Turkish F-102s two countries. In particular, the in a Greek Air Force Mirage radar lock on the Turkish F-16, were destroyed by two Greek claims and counter-claims are 2000 gunsights. The Mirages had along with it popping no flares F-5s with several losses - includ- exacerbated by the geography of reportedly intervened as these trying to escape, indicated a ing a midair collision in 2006. Turkish F-16s had allegedly been lower level of aggression in this Continued on page 2 è 2

Standing NATO Mine Countermeasures Group 2 Flagship Greek Frigate HS Spetsai in the Red Sea . the region, where a multitude of tensions. In fact it is a testament NATO has stood with the US in NATO. Greece, meanwhile, is still small islands make for a highly to NATO that its structure has al- the global war on terror since dealing with the aftermath of the complex issue in how sovereign lowed both countries - when in- 9/11, the winding down of the 2008 financial crisis and almost air and sea borders are defined siders speak of meetings where war in Afghanistan and the US had its own ‘Grexit’ from the EU by international rules. Turkey for one or the other will walk out if focusing on domestic politics and in 2015. The human tragedy in its part, sees Greek islands close the other is present, or language a retreat from internationalist has also added an extra ele- to its coastline as encroaching in official statements has to be has allowed a power vacuum to ment - that of refugees wanting on its territory, some less then very carefully chosen to avoid develop - with Russian and to head for Europe via the EU’s 3miles away, while Greece fears ruffling feathers - to both remain only to happy to step in and sow southern states. This has given that Turkey will extend its sphere valued members of this military discord. Turkey extra leverage in control- of influence into the centre of the alliance. The signs have been pre- ling the flow of migrants. Aegean, cutting off these islands. However, in recent times sent since the civil war in Syria What this means then, is that What is difficult for perhaps these arrangements are in dan- erupted - after interventions in for any potential Greek-Turkish outsiders to grasp, is that both ger of breaking down as geopo- Afghanistan and Iraq, the West confrontation in the near future, countries are members of NATO litical shifts upend traditional was reluctant to be dragged into there is no longer the strong in- and therefore allies - despite this alliances and assumptions. While any new ‘regime change’ adven- ternational leadership provided ture. It was only the emergence by the US to exert pressure to of ISIS and and ’s inter- solve crises at the diplomatic vention to propping up Assad’s level before they spiral out of regime, that prompted the US control. The global worldwide and West to finally take action - pandemic of 2020, also means although this fell short of actual that the US and other countries regime change. are mainly concerned about na- Since then, the geopolitical sit- tional health issues, rather than uation has become even messier - on picking up signals of an im- with the US, having defeated ISIS, pending military clash - especial- pulling out to leave its Kurdish ly between two NATO partners. allies in northern Iraq and Syria In the latter part of 2019 there to their fate. Turkey, meanwhile, Turkey stepped up its campaign has gone from shooting down a to claim to some of these islands Russian Su-24 Fencer in 2015, to as its ‘Blue Homeland’ - aiming cosying up to Moscow in order to to divide the Aegean in half. In secure an advanced S-400 SAM November 2019 lodged Eastern Mediterranean EEZ conflicts. system in defiance of the US and official claims of Exclusive 3

Greece continues to field modern and sophisticated air and sea forces - including OUT NOW over 150 F-16s, Mirage 2000s and a handful ofF-4E Phantoms upgraded to PI- GET YOUR COPY AT “ MATRIXGAMES.COM 2000 standard - as well as four Embraer E99 AEW aircraft. You need the Command Economic Zones (EEZ) with the not needed. The Greek Air Force UN in these contested waters. also boasts an impressive line-up base game to play This is not just a case of ob- of precision weapons, including” Aegean in Flames. scure legal wrangling over the the Scalp cruise missile, Exocet national ownership of continen- and US JSOW to give it stand-off tal shelves – but rights to exploit strike capabilities. The Air Force vast natural resources oil and also operates the country’s SAM gas in the region – which could network, which is an odd mix of transform the fortunes of the western mainstays like HAWK, first country to claim them. Oil Patriot, Crotale-NG and vehicle- crisis has put a dent into mod- vast . and gas fields in the vicinity of mounted Stingers as well as ernisation plans. Uniquely too The boasts Cyprus, for example, have the some eastern-origin hardware for a NATO nation, the Navy also 245 F-16s - the third largest op- potential to provide all of Israel’s such as mobile SA-8s and, most operations four large Russian- erator of the Viper after the US gas needs for the next 40 years. interestingly, a lone S-300PMU-1 designed Zubr assault hovercraft and Israel, as well as around 32 Meanwhile in 2019, Greece itself battery - the latter inherited from for amphibious operations. In F-4E Phantom ‘Terminator 2020.’ licensed oil exploration south the Greek Cypriot Government in air assets the Navy also operates - which are able to carry a wide east of Crete. the 1990s. S-70B Aegean Hawks and for P-3 range of US precision weapons. For this region of scattered Despite its financial con- Orion maritime patrol aircraft. The Air Force has an impressive smaller islands, if conflict did straints, Greece is still aiming to Finally, while the Greek Army EW and ISR capability with over erupt, it would primarily be a air acquire Lockheed Martin F-35 is likely to play a supporting role 100 MALE UAVs, along with four and sea clash. Let’s take a look at stealth fighters at some point in to air and sea forces, it does con- 737 AEW&C and two the forces available. the future in a $4bn deal for 24 tribute Apache attack platforms assigned to EW. The fighters. With Turkey currently as well as Kiowa Warriors. These air force has a substantial tacti- Greek order of cut off from F-35 deliveries, helicopters would be certain cal airlift fleet with nine A400Ms battle Athens sees the acquisition of to be useful in defending small and also operates seven KC-135 - F-35s as necessary to keep the islands. tankers for power projection. cial and debt crisis of 2008-10, balance of power with Turkey - Turkey has also worked to Although hard hit by the finan especially after the acquisition of Turkish firepower develop its own indigenous and sophisticated air and sea the deadly S-400 SAM system. aerospace and defence industry - forcesGreece - continuesincluding overto field 150 modern F-16s, Its Navy relies on German- Turkey is one of the strongest developing its own precision mu- Mirage 2000s and a handful of supplied diesel submarines, NATO powers in terms on troops nitions like the SOM air-launched F-4E Phantoms upgraded to PI- frigates and fast attack boats - under arms and sheer numbers, cruise missile, UAVs, trainer 2000 standard - as well as four configured for operations in the with a strong and capable air aircraft and attack helicopters. Embraer E99 AEW aircraft. For littoral waters. However the last force. In the Cold War, its role It is also pushing ahead with the short ranges involved in this large surface combatant was de- would have been to have protect- development of its own stealth theatre, air-to-air refuelling is livered in 1998 and the financial ed southern flank with its fighter. This gives it a degree of

F-4E Phantom ‘Terminator 2020’. 4

construction at the moment is the Anadolu, which is set to be an amphibious warfare/helicopter carrier. In air assets, the Turkish Navy operates S-70 Sea Hawks, AB212 helicopters as well as six fixed- maritime patrol aircraft. Aviation assets fielded by its army includes drones, the T-129 ATAK and the Isreali-built Harpy loitering munition. Summary

Until now then, these disputes over territory integrity in the Aegean Sea have simmered along at a low-level, despite the occa-

than turns deadly - in a stable sional alarming mock dogfight SOM cruise missile mockup on MSPO 2014. balance of power. A degree of risk that accidents will happen self-reliance in arms -as well as imprisoned for their part in the Since then, news reports have has been accepted by both sides bringing in cash through the ex- coup. Indeed, some analysts linked Turkey with a possible with each probing each others port of these weapons. speculate that the controversial purchase of Russian Su-57 reactions and readiness. In early 2020 it also pioneered acquisition of a Russian S-400 stealth fighters - an acquisition However, the abdication of what might be thought of as the SAM system, in defiance of the that is likely to strain relations the US in its traditional global first-ever close air support cam- US, has more to do with protect- with the US even further. leadership role, means that there paign by drones - using armed ing the President from an inter- In naval forces, Turkeys navy is now more potential for the es- UAVs against Syrian ground nal coup from the air force, than (like Greece’s) is equipped with calation of these minor incidents forces in response to a Syrian Greek air strikes. German-built diesel submarines into major flashpoints. Absent air attack that killed 34 Turkish This decision to press ahead for the shallow waters in which US international pressure, there soldiers. with the Russian S-400 has also they operate. Its also fields 16 is also the scope today for the However, the attempted disrupted Turkish Air Force frigates, (half of these being ‘weaponisation’ of social media coup in 2016 against President fighter modernisation plans, modernised ex-US Oliver Hazard and ‘fake news’ by external ac- Erdogan has reportedly had with deliveries of the F-35 being Perry class), ten corvettes and tors hoping to drive a wedge negative effects on Turkish air halted by the US and the country 19 fast attack craft as its main between and split the NATO alli- power - with air force officers kicked out of the programme. surface combatants. Under ance wide open. The final factor assessing the likelihood of sabre-rattling turn- ing hot is the absence of mean- ingful stakes - or a big enough prize that would persuade each side to go to war. That there are islands in in the Aegean are disputed and represent national sovereignty is not in doubt - but there are also ‘grey zones’ of undetermined sovereignty for uninhabited outcrops and islets. Where exactly is the threshold for conflict for these claims? What therefore, could not be ignored is something like the invasion of a populated island, a strike on a military facility, a massacre of refugees or discovery of natural resources (oil, gas) in contested areas that would threaten to upset this balance of power and provide the trigger for conflict.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.