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Spotlight UK Student Housing 2017

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Spotlight UK Student Housing 2017 Savills World Research Student Housing Spotlight UK Student Housing 2017 SUMMARY Investors continue to pay premiums to aggregate greater student bed numbers ■ 68,000 beds traded last year ■ Investment from Singapore has ■ Brexit may have intensified with a total value of £4.5bn. In 2017 grown massively, with GIC and appetite for UK student housing. we expect this to rise to 75,000 beds Mapletree spending almost £1.2bn We saw over £2.1bn transacted after trading for £5.3bn, a rise of 17% year on UK student housing in 2016. the referendum, compared to £1.9bn on year. earlier in the year. ■ The General Election presents an ■ Investors are willing to pay opportunity for policy to become ■ Development prospects are premiums for larger portfolios, more welcoming to international stronger this year in prime markets driven by their need to allocate students. If students are removed from such as Exeter, Guildford and Leeds. their investment capital and build migration targets, growth of overseas They are weaker in cities such as scale quickly. students in the UK could exceed Aberdeen and Liverpool. worldwide growth of 6% per year. savills.co.uk/research 01 Spotlight | UK Student Housing Investment However, the volume traded in 2016 was still 54% higher than the average for the last five years. UNIVErsITY Many more of these deals took place in the second half of the year, as investors opted to wait for any CHALLENGE market movement following the outcome of the EU referendum. The UK’s decision to leave the EU does not seem to have affected investment appetite – in fact, it may have intensified it. With sterling The UK student housing market nvestors traded 68,000 now worth less relative to many performed well in 2016 despite student beds worth £4.5bn other international currencies, last year in the face of severe deals are highly attractive to a difficult set of circumstances headwinds. We expect overseas investors. £5.3bn to trade in 2017, The appetite for student housing Ior 75,000 beds. assets has outgrown the supply of Words: This represents 17% more available stock. Of the £4.5bn Jacqui Daly money changing hands for just traded in 2016, £1.1bn (25%) 10% more stock. There are some involved forward funding very large portfolios to come to developments while £223m (5%) market this year, which will trade at were development sites. Existing a premium to reflect their size. On stock made up 69% of trades, the the opposite page Brook Burton lowest proportion on record. explains the portfolio premium in We expect this higher level of more detail. investment in development to 2016’s performance was slightly continue this year. lower than the record set in 2015, The trend towards consolidation which saw over £6bn worth of has continued. This has had a student housing change hands. striking effect on our rankings of student housing investors. Two of our Top Ten investors by number of beds are new entrants to the “We expect investment volumes to reach list, having not invested in the UK £5.3bn in 2017 as investor confidence student market at all until last year. This shows how student housing returns after the EU referendum. This is has established itself as an attractive a 17% increase on 2016” Jacqui Daly, Savills Research asset class worldwide, even in the face of political risk. ■ FIGURE 1 FIGURE 2 2017 Initial Yields UK Student Housing Investment Activity ■ Forecast value ■ Total value of deals ■ Value in the first quarter Nomination Number of beds Forecast beds Lease Direct Let Agreement £7 90,000 80,000 £6 Prime London 3.75% 4.25% 4.25% 70,000 £5 60,000 Super Prime 4.25% 4.75% 5.25% £4 Regional 50,000 £3 40,000 Prime Regional 4.50% 5.00% 5.50% 30,000 £2 Number of beds traded Total value invested (£billions) Total 20,000 £1 Secondary 10,000 5.00% 5.75% 6.50% Regional £0 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research 02 2017 VIEW FROM VALuaTIONS Words: Brook Burton, Investors pay portfolio premiums to secure scale at speed Director, Valuations Several larger investors have demonstrated they’re willing to pay a premium on larger portfolios. This premium is driven by their need to allocate investment capital, achieve target scale / returns and secure an income stream quickly and efficiently. Average blended Value-weighted Average Our tracking of deals suggests yield on large average portfolio cap value that these premiums tend to kick in on deals over £150m. The portfolios was premium is per bed of precise geography, location and composition of the portfolio 5.23% 38 bps £95,300 appears to be less important. We have observed premiums on regional, London, and recently even development funding deals where investors want to assemble a large- scale pipeline quickly. FIGURE 3 Largest Private Sector Owners by Number of Beds Blended yields paid for portfolios ranged from 4.6% to 5.8% over Investor Beds 2016 Rank 2015 Rank the last two years, based on our analysis of all major portfolio trades. Unite Students plc 49,000 1 1 The portfolio premium in these deals UPP 31,500 2 2 represents a yield shift of 10 to 85 basis points relative to how those CPPIB / Liberty Living 27,000 3 4 schemes would be valued individually, or 38 bps on average. Premiums are iQ 23,500 4 3 particularly high for stabilised stock 13,500 5 New with a well-established cash flow. Brookfield SRE Campus Living Villages 11,600 6 6 This is because investors tend to value portfolios on an IRR Sanctuary Student Housing 10,000 7 5 basis, targeting ungeared returns of 6-7% and geared returns of Empiric Student Property plc 9,000 8 9 11-12%. Acquiring a portfolio Curlew Student Trust 7,500 9 8 quickly, even at a premium, allows investors to meet these targets much Mapletree 6,000 10 New faster than through many years of organic growth. Source: Savills Research FIGURE 4 Relative Sizes of the Top Private Sector Owners Campus Sanctuary UPP Living Student iQ Villages Housing Unite Students plc Empiric Student Property CPPIB / Liberty Living Brookfield SRE Curlew Student Trust Mapletree Source: Savills Research savills.co.uk/research 03 Spotlight | UK Student Housing International FIGURE 5 GLObaL Global Investment into UK Student Housing UK 2015 2016 2017 INVESTMENT Value £1,670m £1,490m £300m Beds 28,000 27,000 6,000 FLOws Deals 108 93 24 The Far East leads the way in UK student investment Words: Paul Tostevin ast year we saw UK student housing £1,380m continue its evolution into a global investment market. The proportion of international investment flowing into the market has almost doubled in the last Ltwo years. Foreign investment grew from 35% of transactions in 2014 to 64% in 2016. There was a huge increase in Singaporean investment in 2016, up to almost £1.2 billion from just £35 million the year before. Almost two thirds of this came from just one investor: a JV between Singaporean sovereign wealth North America 2015 2016 2017 fund GIC and GSA, who acquired over 7,000 beds. Value £3,370m £1,380m £320m Beds 39,000 18,000 5,000 “GIC’s £700 million investment Deals 18 17 2 in UK student housing is a vote of confidence in the sector from one of its most experienced investors” Paul Tostevin, Savills Research Another Singaporean fund, Mapletree, also invested heavily in UK student last year. They acquired over 6,000 beds. We expect to see continued high transaction volumes from this part of the globe. North America was the second largest source of capital into UK student housing in 2016, investing over £1.3 billion. The vast majority of that came from two Canadian investors: Brookfield SRE and CPPIB. The effect of the EU referendum has been mixed. Although the decision to leave the EU may affect universities’ ability to secure valuable overseas students, the falling value of sterling makes the UK more attractive to international investors and students. We saw over £2.1 billion transacted after the referendum compared to £1.9 billion in the earlier part of the year. ■ Source: Savills Research 04 2017 FIGURE 5 Global Investment into UK Student Housing Europe 2015 2016 2017 Russia 2015 2016 2017 Value £30m £110m - Value £720m £10m £10m Beds 400 900 - Beds 4,000 100 200 Deals 4 2 - Deals 4 1 1 £1,490m £10m £110m £1,180m £30m Middle East 2015 2016 2017 Asia 2015 2016 2017 Value £160m £300m £30m Value £40m £1,180m £230m Beds 3,000 6,000 200 Beds 600 14,000 3,000 Deals 11 15 1 Deals 2 5 2 ■ UK ■ North America ■ Asia ■ Europe ■ Russia ■ Middle East ■ Other £7 £6 £5 £4 £3 £2 Total value invested (£billions) Total £1 £0 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research savills.co.uk/research 05 Spotlight | UK Student Housing Development & Finance Our analysis takes account of a range of factors such as current and future supply, demand, IN A LEAGUE affordability and the potential for rental growth. We combine this with our OF THEIR OWN knowledge of advising in these markets to create a single, simple indicator of each city’s development potential (see Figure 6). Best in class In a highly competitive market, ur student housing Each of our top cities is developers will have to be careful development league attractive for development because table has changed of strong demand characteristics, when selecting sites substantially since high occupancy levels, strong rents last year.
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