Promoting a More Transparent and Accountable NATO

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Promoting a More Transparent and Accountable NATO Issue 46: December 2017 Promoting a more transparent and accountable NATO www.natowatch.org NATO Watch Observatory In this edition: No. 46 (October- December NATO Watch Essay: 2017) - Patriot Games: misinformation, exaggeration and military exercises 3 Published by News, Commentary & Reports: NATO Watch - Arms Control & Disarmament 11 - Artificial Intelligence 12 Gairloch, Scotland - Climate Change 12 IV212DS - Collective Defence 12 Email: - Counter Terrorism 12 - Cyber Security and Information Editor: Dr. Ian Davis Warfare 13 - Defence Budgets and Welcome to NATO Watch’s quarterly Procurement 14 Observatory: the only online publication - Demographic Trends and dedicated entirely to news and independent Security 15 commentary on NATO policy-making and - Enlargement & Partnerships 16 operational activities. The clips are drawn - Armenia; Azerbaijan; Bosnia from a wide range of subscriptions, feeds Herzegovina; China-NATO relations; EU- and alerts covering a substantial part of the NATO relations; Finland; Georgia; Iraq; Israel; Japan; Jordan; Macedonia; major English language newspapers and Mediterranean Dialogue; Moldova; OSCE- other periodicals worldwide. NATO relations; Policy; Science for Peace and Security Programme; Serbia; South NATO Watch Korea; Sweden; UAE; Ukraine; UN-NATO conducts independent monitoring and relations analysis of NATO and aims to increase - History 23 transparency, stimulate parliamentary - Institutional Reform 23 engagement and broaden public awareness - Intelligence 24 and participation in a progressive reform - Maritime Security 24 agenda within NATO. - Military Exercises 24 - Missile Defence 25 - NATO Defence Ministers Meeting 26 - NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting 27 - NATO Parliamentary Assembly 28 - Nuclear Weapons and North Korea 28 - Operations and Missions 30 - Afghanistan; Kosovo; Libya - Responsibility to Protect 32 - Russia-NATO relations 33 - Secretary General 35 - Strategic Concept 35 Copyright © NATO Watch, 2018. Some rights reserved. - Summits 35 This publication is made available under a Creative - Technology 35 Commons BY-NC-ND 3.0 licence, which allows copy - Transparency, Accountability and and distribution for non-profit use, provided the authors and NATO Watch are attributed properly and Good Governance 35 the text is not altered in any way. All citations must be - Women, Peace and Security 36 credited to NATO Watch and/or the original sources. Security News from NATO Member States 36 New Research Projects 46 2 Zapad 2017 NATO Watch Essay: While Russia’s military exercises often Patriot Games: provoke widespread media and expert interest in the West, the bilateral misinformation, Belarus-Russia Zapad 2017 (which ran exaggeration and military from 14 to 20 September and took exercises place across Kaliningrad, Belarus and Russia’s Northwest Military District) By Dr Ian Davis saw unprecedented attention and feverish conjecture concerning “…[This nation is] aiming at the Moscow’s goals. This was not a ‘snap exclusive domination of the [world], lost exercise’, since Zapad (meaning ‘west’ in corruption, [characterized by] deep- in Russian) has taken place every four rooted hatred towards us, hostile to years since 2009 and is announced well liberty wherever it endeavours to show in advance. Russia holds at least one its head, and the eternal disturber of major military exercise every year on a the peace of the world”. rotating basis in four different regions—Zapad (‘west’ 2017), Kavkaz Consider the above quote. Who do you (‘Caucasus’ 2016) Tsentr (‘center’ think said that and to what nation was 2015) and Vostok (‘east’ 2014)— he or she referring? (The answer is suggesting that Russian strategists provided in the conclusion to this believe their armed forces need to be essay). prepared for a major conflict from any ------------ direction and not just from NATO in the West. Major military exercises are being On this occasion, the main Western conducted with increasing frequency in concerns were that Zapad 2017 could Europe and since 2013 on the Russian be used as cover to launch a military side, often without prior notification attack against one or more of Belarus’ (so-called ‘snap exercises’). This year, neighbouring states, or even to leave both Russia and NATO have been troops behind to destabilize Belarus. holding large Cold War-style war Predictably, this did not come to pass. games. Both sides claim the exercises, which involve mainly conventional air, Much of the excitement in Western sea and land assets, but also cyber and media stemmed from the issue of how potentially nuclear warfare simulations, many Russian military personnel would are purely defensive in nature. But it is arrive in Belarus for the exercise. The clear the exercises are also meant to figure of 100,000 Russian troops was showcase new capabilities and widely reported, including by the technologies, and display not only the Washington Post, New York Times and strength of their respective alliances, the Economist (see the wider sample of but how quickly troops and heavy press coverage in the previous NATO equipment can move to defeat a Watch Observatory), as well as by territorial incursion at the frontier. Both several US generals and western Russia and NATO have been testing politicians, but was always highly their strategic deterrence and coercive unlikely. Moscow claimed that it would capabilities, but only one side tends to stay within the ceilings provided by the be criticised in the West for doing so. Organization for Security and The ideological confrontation of the Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Vienna Cold War may be over, and Russia may Document, whereby any military be a shadow of the former Soviet Union, exercise involving more than 9,000 but an anti-Russian drumbeat troops requires advance notification of continues to beat loud and clear. 3 at least 42 days; and any exercise Western analysts allege, with some involving more than 13,000 troops justification, that Russian military must be preceded by an invitation to exercises often work around the two the other 56 OSCE participating states Vienna Document ceilings. So, on this to send two observers. occasion, did the real number of Russian troops in Zapad 2017 exceed The latest iteration of the Vienna the official figure of 12,700 soldiers, Document was agreed in 2011 and supported by 680 armoured vehicles builds on several previous agreements and 200 artillery systems? While (the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, the Western estimates—ranging between Document of the Stockholm 100,00-60,000—appear to be inflated, Conference of 1986, the 1992 Helsinki the real numbers are still unconfirmed: Document, and the Vienna Documents “We don’t know the exact numbers and of 1990, 1992, 1994 and 1999). It is probably never will” a NATO source said part of an interlocking web of mutually on the 29 September, adding “There enforcing agreements, including the were ground, air, Treaties on and paratrooper Conventional Arms forces as well as Control in Europe homeland defence (CFE) and Open participants, so Skies, which form getting a final the current European accurate count will conventional arms be difficult”. control framework. Nevertheless, by 2 This framework aims October, US Army to increase military Europe commander transparency Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges (especially when it was confident comes to military enough to “guess” exercises) and that Zapad 2017 augment mutual involved around security by 40,000 Russian diminishing the risks troops. of miscalculation and misperception. From NATO’s security posters collection. Over However, one study the years, the posters, cards, and calendars records more than reproduced in this 60 seriousness edition of the NATO incidents across the Watch Observatory have Euro-Atlantic area adorned the walls and involving NATO and/or its partners and the desks inside the alliance headquarters, reminding NATO employees of the importance Russia between 2014 and 2016, of discretion and internal security. As NATO including airspace violations of NATO says, “These cultural artefacts are testimonials countries (Estonia and Lithuania) and to the preoccupations of our times” – credit: their partners (Sweden and Finland); NATO. two near collisions between civilian However, missing from many of the airliners and military aircraft; NATO reports of Zapad 2017 is the fact that warships being harried by Russian 14 observers from seven countries— aircraft; and several pursuits of Russian Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, submarines suspected to be operating Poland, Sweden and Ukraine—were in the territorial waters of another invited on voluntary basis by Belarus to state. This increased number of military observe the Belarus part of the incidents has added to rising tensions. exercise. (No invitations were 4 forthcoming from Russia). NATO also counting full units as having sent two experts, but rightly participated when only parts of units complained that the access given fell were involved. (For a detailed short of a fully-fledged observation breakdown of all Russia's military mission under the Vienna Document, manoeuvres during the exercises, see which would get briefings, interviews Michael Kofman's blog on Zapad-2017; with soldiers and overflights. and for a historical comparison of the Nonetheless, one of those observers, large gap between official Russian Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Möller from numbers and Western assessments of Sweden, apparently witnessed enough Russian military exercises since 2008, to confirm in an interview on 27 see Table 3 in
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