Promoting a More Transparent and Accountable NATO

Issue 46: December 2017

Promoting a more transparent and accountable NATO

www.natowatch.org

NATO Watch Observatory In this edition:

No. 46 (October- December NATO Watch Essay: 2017) - Patriot Games: misinformation, exaggeration and military exercises 3 Published by News, Commentary & Reports: NATO Watch - Arms Control & Disarmament 11 - Artificial Intelligence 12 Gairloch, Scotland - Climate Change 12 IV212DS - Collective Defence 12 Email: - Counter Terrorism 12 - Cyber Security and Information Editor: Dr. Ian Davis Warfare 13 - Defence Budgets and Welcome to NATO Watch’s quarterly Procurement 14 Observatory: the only online publication - Demographic Trends and dedicated entirely to news and independent Security 15 commentary on NATO policy-making and - Enlargement & Partnerships 16 operational activities. The clips are drawn - Armenia; Azerbaijan; Bosnia from a wide range of subscriptions, feeds Herzegovina; China-NATO relations; EU- and alerts covering a substantial part of the NATO relations; Finland; Georgia; Iraq; Israel; Japan; Jordan; Macedonia; major English language newspapers and Mediterranean Dialogue; Moldova; OSCE- other periodicals worldwide. NATO relations; Policy; Science for Peace and Security Programme; Serbia; South NATO Watch Korea; Sweden; UAE; Ukraine; UN-NATO conducts independent monitoring and relations analysis of NATO and aims to increase - History 23 transparency, stimulate parliamentary - Institutional Reform 23 engagement and broaden public awareness - Intelligence 24 and participation in a progressive reform - Maritime Security 24 agenda within NATO. - Military Exercises 24 - Missile Defence 25 - NATO Defence Ministers Meeting 26 - NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting 27 - NATO Parliamentary Assembly 28 - Nuclear Weapons and North Korea 28 - Operations and Missions 30 - Afghanistan; Kosovo; Libya - Responsibility to Protect 32 - Russia-NATO relations 33 - Secretary General 35 - Strategic Concept 35 Copyright © NATO Watch, 2018. Some rights reserved. - Summits 35 This publication is made available under a Creative - Technology 35 Commons BY-NC-ND 3.0 licence, which allows copy - Transparency, Accountability and and distribution for non-profit use, provided the authors and NATO Watch are attributed properly and Good Governance 35 the text is not altered in any way. All citations must be - Women, Peace and Security 36 credited to NATO Watch and/or the original sources. Security News from NATO

Member States 36 New Research Projects 46

Zapad 2017 NATO Watch Essay: While Russia’s military exercises often Patriot Games: provoke widespread media and expert interest in the West, the bilateral misinformation, Belarus-Russia Zapad 2017 (which ran exaggeration and military from 14 to 20 September and took exercises place across Kaliningrad, Belarus and Russia’s Northwest Military District) By Dr Ian Davis saw unprecedented attention and feverish conjecture concerning “…[This nation is] aiming at the Moscow’s goals. This was not a ‘snap exclusive domination of the [world], lost exercise’, since Zapad (meaning ‘west’ in corruption, [characterized by] deep- in Russian) has taken place every four rooted hatred towards us, hostile to years since 2009 and is announced well liberty wherever it endeavours to show in advance. Russia holds at least one its head, and the eternal disturber of major military exercise every year on a the peace of the world”. rotating basis in four different regions—Zapad (‘west’ 2017), Kavkaz Consider the above quote. Who do you (‘Caucasus’ 2016) Tsentr (‘center’ think said that and to what nation was 2015) and Vostok (‘east’ 2014)— he or she referring? (The answer is suggesting that Russian strategists provided in the conclusion to this believe their armed forces need to be essay). prepared for a major conflict from any ------direction and not just from NATO in the West.

Major military exercises are being On this occasion, the main Western conducted with increasing frequency in concerns were that Zapad 2017 could Europe and since 2013 on the Russian be used as cover to launch a military side, often without prior notification attack against one or more of Belarus’ (so-called ‘snap exercises’). This year, neighbouring states, or even to leave both Russia and NATO have been troops behind to destabilize Belarus. holding large Cold War-style war Predictably, this did not come to pass. games. Both sides claim the exercises, which involve mainly conventional air, Much of the excitement in Western sea and land assets, but also cyber and media stemmed from the issue of how potentially nuclear warfare simulations, many Russian military personnel would are purely defensive in nature. But it is arrive in Belarus for the exercise. The clear the exercises are also meant to figure of 100,000 Russian troops was showcase new capabilities and widely reported, including by the technologies, and display not only the Washington Post, New York Times and strength of their respective alliances, the Economist (see the wider sample of but how quickly troops and heavy press coverage in the previous NATO equipment can move to defeat a Watch Observatory), as well as by territorial incursion at the frontier. Both several US generals and western Russia and NATO have been testing politicians, but was always highly their strategic deterrence and coercive unlikely. Moscow claimed that it would capabilities, but only one side tends to stay within the ceilings provided by the be criticised in the West for doing so. Organization for Security and The ideological confrontation of the Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Vienna Cold War may be over, and Russia may Document, whereby any military be a shadow of the former Soviet Union, exercise involving more than 9,000 but an anti-Russian drumbeat troops requires advance notification of continues to beat loud and clear.

3 at least 42 days; and any exercise Western analysts allege, with some involving more than 13,000 troops justification, that Russian military must be preceded by an invitation to exercises often work around the two the other 56 OSCE participating states Vienna Document ceilings. So, on this to send two observers. occasion, did the real number of Russian troops in Zapad 2017 exceed The latest iteration of the Vienna the official figure of 12,700 soldiers, Document was agreed in 2011 and supported by 680 armoured vehicles builds on several previous agreements and 200 artillery systems? While (the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, the Western estimates—ranging between Document of the Stockholm 100,00-60,000—appear to be inflated, Conference of 1986, the 1992 Helsinki the real numbers are still unconfirmed: Document, and the Vienna Documents “We don’t know the exact numbers and of 1990, 1992, 1994 and 1999). It is probably never will” a NATO source said part of an interlocking web of mutually on the 29 September, adding “There enforcing agreements, including the were ground, air, Treaties on and paratrooper Conventional Arms forces as well as Control in Europe homeland defence (CFE) and Open participants, so Skies, which form getting a final the current European accurate count will conventional arms be difficult”. control framework. Nevertheless, by 2 This framework aims October, US Army to increase military Europe commander transparency Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges (especially when it was confident comes to military enough to “guess” exercises) and that Zapad 2017 augment mutual involved around security by 40,000 Russian diminishing the risks troops. of miscalculation and misperception. From NATO’s security posters collection. Over However, one study the years, the posters, cards, and calendars records more than reproduced in this 60 seriousness edition of the NATO incidents across the Watch Observatory have Euro-Atlantic area adorned the walls and involving NATO and/or its partners and the desks inside the alliance headquarters, reminding NATO employees of the importance Russia between 2014 and 2016, of discretion and internal security. As NATO including airspace violations of NATO says, “These cultural artefacts are testimonials countries (Estonia and Lithuania) and to the preoccupations of our times” – credit: their partners (Sweden and Finland); NATO. two near collisions between civilian However, missing from many of the airliners and military aircraft; NATO reports of Zapad 2017 is the fact that warships being harried by Russian 14 observers from seven countries— aircraft; and several pursuits of Russian Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, submarines suspected to be operating Poland, Sweden and Ukraine—were in the territorial waters of another invited on voluntary basis by Belarus to state. This increased number of military observe the Belarus part of the incidents has added to rising tensions. exercise. (No invitations were

4 forthcoming from Russia). NATO also counting full units as having sent two experts, but rightly participated when only parts of units complained that the access given fell were involved. (For a detailed short of a fully-fledged observation breakdown of all Russia's military mission under the Vienna Document, manoeuvres during the exercises, see which would get briefings, interviews Michael Kofman's blog on Zapad-2017; with soldiers and overflights. and for a historical comparison of the Nonetheless, one of those observers, large gap between official Russian Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Möller from numbers and Western assessments of Sweden, apparently witnessed enough Russian military exercises since 2008, to confirm in an interview on 27 see Table 3 in this article by Simon September in Deutsche Welle that the Saradzhyan). official figure of 12,700 was probably correct, adding: “The scenario for the The main source of the speculative Belarus part of the exercise is like any 100,000 figure was a report that the other exercise. A small part of Belarus Russian Defence Ministry contracted was marked out as a fictive country. 4,162 rail cars for military Belarus and Russia stopped the attack transportation for Zapad 2017, which from this ‘country’. They met the seemed to imply a particularly large attack, stopped it and made a counter movement of troops and equipment. attack. I would not say that Despite a few analysts (see, for they were enacting a battle “NATO example, Pavel Kovalev, article between two major highly- countries are in Russian) debunking such an equipped countries”. counting all the extrapolation, the ‘100,000+ military troop exercise’ was given legs Yet after the October meeting activities that by almost all of the country of the NATO-Russia Council took place in leaders and heads of foreign (NRC), NATO Secretary General the Russian and defence ministries of the Jens Stoltenberg told reporters Baltic states, Poland and “The number of troops Federation and Ukraine, along with several US participating in the exercises counting them and NATO generals in Europe, significantly exceeded the as part of and remained the main number announced before the Zapad.” narrative in Western media. exercise, the scenario was a - Aleksandr NATO itself did little to provide different one and the Grushko a more measured assessment, geographical scope was larger with the head of NATO's than previously announced”. In a military committee Gen. Petr Pavel separate press conference, Russian suggesting that the war games could envoy to the NRC Aleksandr Grushko be "a serious preparation for a big war". said NATO’s assessment was wrong and that the alliance was incorrect to In December, this particular take on lump all the exercises going on in Zapad 2017 was resurrected in an Russia in September under the Zapad article in the German newspaper Bild— name: “NATO countries are counting all and widely reported in other European the military activities that took place in media—in which two unnamed Western the Russian Federation and counting intelligence analysts claimed that the them as part of Zapad”, he said. exercises were essentially a practice run of a “full-scale conventional war The conflicting estimates appear to against NATO in Europe”. While stating reflect differences in the ways Russian that the figure of 12,700 ground forces planners and some Western analysts that participated in the Belarus exercise count personnel, for example, by was correct, the two sources claimed including or excluding official that another 12,000 Russian soldiers exercises taking place nearby or in

5 took part in the Leningrad and Pskov perpetual truth, but some encourage regions and almost 10,000 were cooperation and security, while others involved on the Kola peninsula. Adding foster only insecurity, disinformation in a “high number of naval personnel, and fake news. In broad terms, the air force staff, and support forces”, they competing narratives between Russia again managed to push the total force and NATO can be set out as follows level participating in Zapad 2017 to (although a proper review would also “more than 100,000 Russian troops”, highlight the competing intra-NATO together with an additional 20,000 narratives that have always been a Russian National Guard troops and feature of alliance politics). further FSB units and Ministry of Emergency Situation personnel, NATO’s main narrative, and especially pushing the overall number even its worries about Zapad 2017, are higher. partly focused on allegations of precedent and partly based on its own The overblown western estimates along underlying threat perceptions of with the fear of occupations and Russia. Most US military leaders point invasions produced by the Zapad 2017 to Russia as their top national security exercise are partly a reflection of the concern—the Trump administration is deterioration in Russia-NATO relations more equivocal given that the White since the annexation of House remains embroiled in Crimea in 2014 and the …there was scandals related to allegations ongoing Ukraine crisis. little or no of Russian meddling in the However, they are also in line effort to see 2016 presidential election— with a rich tradition of threat the exercises and it is a view echoed across inflation about Russia/Soviet from a Russian most of European NATO, and Union, as captured by Andrew perspective or most vociferously on its Cockburn’s, The Threat: Inside to critically eastern border. Russian the Soviet Military Machine analysis the exercises in the Caucasus in (1982). Hence, with a few numerous 2008 are cited as a prelude to notable exceptions—such as military the Russian-Georgian war Simon Saradzhyan’s article exercises that (although it is often forgotten noted above and a series of that Georgia started the war NATO has been articles by Roger McDermott a with Russia), while a major Senior Fellow in Eurasian conducting. 2014 exercise on the Military Studies at the Ukrainian border was taking Jamestown Foundation—there place as war erupted in the was little or no effort to see the Donbass. The Soviet invasion of exercises from a Russian perspective or Czechoslovakia in 1968 is also often to critically analysis the numerous cited to confirm a long-standing military exercises that NATO has been tradition of Russia/the Soviets using conducting. military manoeuvres to hide an impending attack. NATO and Russian threat perceptions: two sides of the Beyond concerns about recent Russian same coin? military exercises, NATO’s broader concerns focus on the potential for Understanding European security Russian escalation at NATO’s eastern requires an insight into competing and flank and especially limited ‘land grabs’ contradictory narratives about threat in the Baltic States using a mix of perceptions: narratives about heritages conventional forces and ‘hybrid and identity, versions of good and evil, strategies’. Hence, at NATO’s Warsaw the past and the future. None of these Summit in 2016 it was agreed to deploy narratives represent the outright and four multinational battalions (~4,000 troops) as an Enhanced Forward

Presence (eFP) in the three Baltic States freedom and democracy following the and Poland and to concurrently collapse of the Soviet Union in the strengthen the alliance’s language on 1990s. From this starting point, deterrence, including nuclear Russian leaders (and especially Putin) deterrence. see NATO expansion and hybrid interventions by the West as a On the Russian side, Zapad 2017 is fundamental cause of instability within largely described as a defensive Russia. exercise rehearsing the defence of Belarus against a NATO intervention in Moreover, Russia’s current defiant which Russia responds with counter- geopolitical stance can also be traced offensives and tries to prevent conflict to the belief that the West broke its escalation. McDermott, for example, promises not to expand NATO at the states: “The first bilateral Zapad end of the Cold War. NATO has called exercise was staged in 1999, in the any such promise a ‘myth’ and experts context of the NATO bombing of Serbia have been divided as to exactly what and with Moscow on the brink of assurances were given. However, newly renewing combat operations in declassified documents published in Chechnya. The purported possibility of December by George Washington a NATO-led intervention in Belarus University reveal that the assurances rooted in humanitarian reasons drove were fairly explicit: most of the political the exercise and still leaders at that time from the influences thinking within Russia’s current United States, Germany and the Russian General Staff. defiant the UK offered assurances to Moscow’s security concerns geopolitical stance President Gorbachev and about ‘colour revolution’ can also be traced Foreign Minister Eduard close to its borders are taken to the belief that Shevardnadze that NATO seriously among the security the West broke its would not expand towards elite and help shape the Russian borders. These planning for Zapad”. promises not to revelations have received expand NATO at little or no coverage in the Similarly, Mathieu Boulègue, the end of the mainstream Western media. a research fellow at Chatham Cold War House, concludes that One analyst who has sought Zapad-2017 “became a drill to understand the thoughts about a limited conventional operation of Russian military professionals is against an equally conventional and Timothy Thomas, and in Thinking Like advanced enemy” and ”looked like a a Russian Officer (April 2016), he states dress rehearsal for defending against a that “Russian military officers have NATO intervention”. described hybrid war as a tactic the West has used against it for some time”. While from a Western perspective, the threat of a NATO or US military Similarly, as Rod Thornton argues, intervention in Russia sounds like having been called into action to target paranoia, two key historical narratives NATO and, in particular, its principal feed this Russian fear of outside actor, the United States, in the same intervention: the German invasion of way that Moscow feels that it has been the Soviet Union in 1941 (and although targeted, the senior ranks of the the exact numbers are disputed, led to Russian military now see ‘asymmetric more than 20 million civilian and means and methods’ as their new ‘main military Soviet casualties); and the deep emphasis’ in seeking to impose scars left on the country’s psyche by Moscow’s will on other states. Thus, Russia’s exposure to Western-style the Russian narrative about Zapad-

2017 is that it reminds the West that allies (249 in total). Some involved Russia is not only reacting to a large-scale troop and equipment perceived threat, but that any army deployments, while others were smaller seeking to burst Russia’s anti- command post exercises with a handful access/area-denial (A2/AD) ‘bubbles’ of personnel. would bear a high enough cost as to be effectively deterred. Eighteen exercises took place last summer in the Black Sea region and the NATO’s military exercises largest, Saber Guardian (11-20 July) which took place across Hungary, The underlying tendency in the Western Romania and Bulgaria, had 14,000 US media and among many pundits to soldiers participating with 21 other inflate the Russian threat around the countries providing 11,000 troops Zapad exercise, can be contrasted with (Armenia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, the laissez faire approach to NATO’s Germany, Croatia, Georgia, Greece, own military exercises. During NATO's Hungary, Lithuania, Macedonia, Wales Summit in 2014, the alliance Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, agreed to periodically conduct a so- Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Serbia, called high-visibility exercise starting in Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine and 2015. The first such event— the United Kingdom). A The underlying Trident Juncture 2015—took ‘separate’ naval exercise, Sea place in Spain, Portugal and tendency in the Breeze (10-22 July) co-hosted Italy in October-November Western media by the United States and 2015. The 2018 iteration will and among many Ukraine, involved air, land, be hosted by Norway. In pundits to inflate sea and amphibious forces addition, NATO conducts the Russian from 17 nations simulating regular exercises and threat around maritime interdiction training, as described on the the Zapad operations, air defence, anti- website of NATO's exercise, can be submarine warfare, search headquarters for all military contrasted with and rescue and amphibious plans and operations, known warfare. as SHAPE (Supreme the laissez faire Headquarters Allied Powers approach to Similarly, the wider Baltic Europe), which includes lists NATO’s own region has witnessed several of NATO exercises (where the military major NATO and partner exercise is initiated by NATO exercises. military exercises in the and is under its command) summer and autumn: Saber and allied national exercises Strike (28 May-24 June) was a (where the state organizing the series of US-led combined land and air exercise is in command, but NATO force exercises involving the eFP battle structures are involved) due to take groups in multiple locations place over the next six months. throughout Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland—and included the Iron Wolf In 2016, a total of 242 NATO (107) and exercise (12–23 June) involving 5,300 allied (135) exercises took place. The soldiers from ten NATO countries in largest one—the Polish national which the Lithuania-led battle group exercise Anakonda 2016—took place in practiced defending the so-called June 2016 in Poland and included air Suwalki Gap (a narrow land connection and land forces. Despite around 31,000 between Poland and Lithuania); the US troops from more than 23 nations Air Force sent B-1 and B-52 bombers to participating, this was not designated a Europe to participate in the BALTOPs high-visibility exercise. In 2017, around exercise (1-16 June)—held annually 100 NATO exercises were planned, as since 1972 and one of the largest well as 149 national exercises led by maritime exercises held under US

8 guidance—which included 4,000 that their overall picture or impact troops, 50 allied ships and submarines appears smaller than those conducted and more than 50 aircraft from 14 by Russia. The reality appears to be that NATO and partner countries—the US, NATO (especially when partner Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, France, exercises are included) is conducting Latvia, the United Kingdom, Lithuania, military exercises of at least equivalent the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, scale to Russia. There are now calls for Germany, as well as Finland and even larger NATO exercises and in Sweden; and Patriot anti-missile 2019, the alliance will go from one batteries were deployed in Lithuania for large-scale joint annual military the Tobruk Legacy exercise (11-22 exercise to three. July), which focused on long-range anti- aircraft and missile defence. Conclusions: The need for greater transparency and a In addition, the Swedish-led Aurora return to arms control 2017 exercise (11-29 September) took place in the Baltics, and was One of the main conclusions to be Stockholm's largest and most drawn is that Russian and NATO expensive (at an estimated cost of $73 military exercises have become a million) in 25 years, and incorporated dangerous tool, politically and Swedish sea, land and air militarily. Another is that there units, with about 20,000 The reality is strong evidence of threat troops taking part, including appears to be inflation in relation to Russian military exercises and a some 1,500 soldiers from the that NATO US, 270 from Finland, 120 systematic downplaying of (especially from France and between 40 NATO exercises. This is to 60 from Denmark, Norway, when partner particularly pronounced in the Lithuania and Estonia. exercises are Western media, where counter However, since this was a included) is narratives that show Russia in national exercise by a non- conducting a positive light are rare (but member state (albeit one that military see here and here). It is invited some NATO allies to exercises of at unclear the extent to which join in their national capacity), least equivalent this thinking is also reflected it was not required to be scale to Russia. within or propagated by NATO reported by NATO. itself, although the pronouncements of senior One of the criticisms levelled at Russia alliance officials suggest that it is. is that in order to keep below the Vienna Document disclosure limits it While Russian propaganda operations artificially divides its exercise into are well known, the fact that Western separate parts—for example, by public discourse about Russia is specifying a gap of a few days between coloured by militaristic and dangerous events or holding them in different terms should also be a cause for training areas simultaneously under concern, as two British-based joint command. General Ben Hodges academics, Anna Matveeva and Richard asserts that Russia split up the Zapad- Sakwa wrote in a letter to The Guardian 2017 drills in this way, “But in fact from in 2016: “The continual perception of a professional military standpoint these threat accelerates a military and were all connected,” he said. However, ideological escalation… Warnings of the same or similar practices clearly ‘Russian aggression’ fail to take into occur within NATO, and while the account its defensive posture. We need alliance is seemingly more forthcoming a precautionary but critical assessment with details of its respective exercises, of present realities”. the net result of the disaggregation is

Returning to the quote at the Rather than always interpreting the introduction to this essay, it could quite actions of the Russian government in clearly have been any recent US the worst possible light and seeking to President or leader of one of the NATO hold Moscow to higher standards than allies speaking about Russia. In fact, it sometimes operate in the West, there was US President Thomas Jefferson, in needs to be more discussion and 1815, describing Great Britain. Fast analysis of what Russians really think. forward 200 years and the political, And especially of what the Russian diplomatic, cultural, economic, military military thinks. By evaluating Russian and historical relations between the military debates—and this recent United Kingdom and the United States analysis by the NATO Defense College are regarded as ‘special’. is a step in the right direction—more nuanced engagement and, where So, when the Dalai Lama recently spoke appropriate, deterrence policies can be of his dream of NATO’s new advanced, as well as unplanned headquarters being in Moscow rather provocations avoided. than Brussels, is this any less fanciful than the UK-US ‘Special Relationship’ Second, resolution of the conflict in seemed in 1815? Some of the steps southeastern Ukraine is another clear needed for such a scenario to priority for better NATO- move from the realm of …when the Dalai Russian relations, but with no fantasy to becoming a Lama recently sense of a halt in the violence, reasonable proposition are as spoke of his a full-scale peacekeeping follows. dream of NATO’s operation authorized by the UN Security Council is First, a quarter of a century new probably needed. after the end of the Cold War, headquarters a new mindset is needed on being in Moscow Third, both sides—and both sides, but particularly rather than especially Russia—need to among Western nations. Brussels, is this improve their transparency of When Western media and any less fanciful major military exercises, by politicians speak about ‘the than the UK-US honouring both the letter and Russians’, negative adjectives ‘Special spirit of the Vienna are invariably part of the Relationship’ Document. While Minsk dialogue. In the field of arms downplayed the control, for example, much of seemed in 1815? confrontational aspects of the agenda in Washington DC Zapad 2017, Moscow seemed and Brussels appears to be about to relish making the exercise less showing the Russians as treaty transparent and thus more threatening violators, partly to justify a military than it really was. Such thinking is build-up and partly to spike existing counterproductive. Instead, Moscow and any future arms control treaties. should take up the German The focus on allegations of Russian government’s recent push for the non-compliance with the Intermediate- renewal of a dialogue about Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and conventional force limitations and the widespread view that arms control transparency, including a revision to is worthless unless Russia is confronted the Vienna Document to strengthen the with this head on is the most clear and notification process. obvious example. Moreover, positive stories, such as Russia completing the Some of the proposals previously on destruction of its chemical weapons the table could be revisited, including stockpiles, receive relatively little greater transparency regarding snap coverage. exercises, lower notification thresholds, risk reduction mechanisms

10 and incident prevention efforts. But Finally, enforcement of arms control there also need to be broader talks on treaties should be viewed as a means a new security architecture for Eastern towards strengthening treaties, and not Europe. Rather than flexing their used to simply discredit treaty conventional military muscles in a partners. The narrative in Russia about series of face-off exercises, Russia and US arms control behaviour is just as NATO need to be cooperating to negative, so there needs to be room for address a range of 21st-century threats more venues that discuss complaints in from radicalisation to cyber-attacks to a less heated and more technical climate change and mass migration. manner.

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News, Commentary and Aegis Ashore missile defence systems to Japan, which Russia says violates the Reports: INF Treaty.

Arms Control & Disarmament Another US-Russia treaty straining under the weight of recent tensions is Moscow and Washington continued to the Open Skies Treaty, which allows accuse each other of violating the both countries to carry out periodic Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces surveillance overflights of each other’s (INF) Treaty—a cornerstone arms territory. In late December, Russia control pact between the US and Russia sought to limit the number of airfields that halted a destabilizing buildup of the US could use for overflights under intermediate-range nuclear missiles in the Treaty. Russia is said to be limiting Europe during the 1980s. The US has the US’ ability to overfly its enclave in been pressing NATO to back its Kaliningrad after Washington put limits criticism of Russia on this matter. At on Russia’s flights over US missile the NAC meeting in early December, defence locations in Alaska. Germany reportedly took the lead in ensuring that the alliance did not adopt Russia accuses US of violating arms control treaty, The Hill, 28 December 2017 an official position on the issue. German Foreign Minister Sigmar Russia to Limit U.S. Military Flyovers in Tit- Gabriel warned that Russia and the for-Tat Response, Bloomberg, 27 United States are in the process of December 2017 undermining the disarmament Putin accuses U.S. of plotting to break successes of the 1980s, and “we could landmark arms control pact, Reuters, 22 be facing the immediate danger of December 2017 another, perhaps even nuclear, arms Must Read: Karl-Heinz Kamp und Wolfgang race”, he said. Rudischhauser, The INF Treaty as a

However, on 15 December, NATO Cornerstone of Nuclear Arms Control – Doomed to Fail? Federal Academy for finally echoed the concerns expressed Security Policy, Security Policy Working by the Pentagon. In a statement, the Paper, No. 30/2017 alliance said: “NATO urges Russia to address these concerns in a substantial Dave Majumdar, Russia and NATO: Headed and transparent way, and actively for a Missile Arms Race in Europe?, The National Interest, 17 December 2017 engage in a technical dialogue with the United States”. NATO concerned Russian missile system breaks Cold War pact, Tampa Bay Times, 15 In late December, Moscow objected to December 2017 the recently announced sale of two

NATO sounds alarm on banned Russian Alliance’s response to Russia’s use of missile system, Reuters, 15 December force against its neighbours and its 2017 military build-up in the Baltic region Statement by the North Atlantic Council on and beyond”. the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, NATO Press Release, 15 Dec. NATO is also strengthening its 2017 multinational presence in the Black Sea region, based around a Romanian-led US, Russia missile treaty in jeopardy as tensions escalate, Deutsche Welle, 9 multinational framework brigade. The December 2017 alliance has also tripled the size of the NATO Response Force to 40,000—with Must Read: U.S. Demands NATO Action on a high-readiness Spearhead Force at its Russian Missiles, Spiegel Online, 8 core—and set up eight small December 2017 headquarters (NATO Force Integration Trump approves new Russia sanctions for Units) to facilitate training and violating Cold War arms pact, Politico, 8 reinforcements. December 2017

As Russia Subverts Missile Treaty, U.S. Sinan Ülgen, NATO’s Southern Strategy at a Looking at New Weapons. Foreign Policy, 8 Crossroads, Carnegie Europe, 11 December December 2017 2017

Nikolai Sokov, Are Arms Control Zviad Adzinbaia, NATO in the Black Sea: Agreements Losing Their Value? The What to expect next? NATO Defense National Interest, 6 December 2017 College, Report No. 141, November 2017

NATO Allies brief Russian arms control Vasile Rotaru and Andreas Umland, How inspectors, NATO News Release, 9 Romania and Poland Can Strengthen NATO November 2017 and the EU, Foreign Affairs, 10 November 2017 Ian Anthony, The forgotten science of cooperative threat reduction, SIPRI Expert Hans Binnendijk and Anika Binnendijk, Comment, 3 October 2017 Deterring the unthinkable: NATO’s role along the Eastern flank, Defense News, 3 November 2017 Artificial Intelligence NATO reinforcement capabilities hampered NATO urged to rapidly absorb AI into its by infrastructure and transport limitations, command and control, IHS Jane’s Defence IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, 1 November Weekly, 22 October 2017 2017

Anthony Cordesman, NATO’s Emerging

Challenges: Speech to 11th Allied Land Climate Change Command Corps Commanders’ Amar Causevic, NATO and Climate Change: Conference, Valencia, Spain, 24 October The Need for a More Coherent Approach, 2017

Stratfor, 13 October 2017 John Deni, NATO’s Shaky Return to Collective Defense, Carnegie Europe, 26

October 2017 Collective Defence NATO Inaugurates New Black Sea Force in At the Warsaw Summit in 2016, NATO Romania, Balkan Insight, 9 October 2017 leaders had decided to enhance NATO’s military presence in the eastern part of NATO launches Black Sea force as latest counter to Russia, Reuters, 9 October 2017 the alliance. Since then, four multinational battlegroups totalling approximately 4,500 troops have Counter Terrorism deployed to the Baltic nations and Poland. According to NATO, the four NATO training missions have focused battlegroups “are one part of the on counter terrorism capabilities in in the Middle East and North Africa,

12 including in Egypt, Jordan, Mauritania, commandos to stop it and seize servers Morocco and Tunisia. NATO onboard. surveillance planes support the anti-ISIS coalition, and at the NATO summit in "There's a change in the (NATO) mindset to May 2017, the alliance announced it accept that computers, just like aircraft and would become a full member of ships, have an offensive capability”. the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. US Navy Commander Michael Widmann at

Alan Kearney, Preparing commanders to the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence counter marauding terrorist attacks, NATO Centre of Excellence. Cited in NATO Mulls Review, 22 November 2017 'Offensive Defense' With Cyber Warfare Rules, US News, 30 November 2017 NATO to Increase Counterterrorism Funding in Line with Trump Agenda, Wall Street Journal, 5 October 2017 - France was Here's How Europe Is Practicing Going On holdout on increasing common budget The Counterattack In The Event Of funding over audit concerns Cyberwar, Buzzfeed News, 19 December 2017 - Talking about cyberweapons that From NATO’s security can be used to go on posters collection – the attack was once credit: NATO taboo in Europe. But as Russia flexes its Cyber Security muscles online, more countries are and Information becoming willing to Warfare talk about just what

they can do NATO now considers Could Russia cut off cyberspace to be a internet to NATO conflict domain countries? Euronews, 16 December 2017 alongside that of air, sea and land. Bruno Lété and Piret NATO is reported Pernik, EU–NATO to be working on a Cybersecurity and ‘special doctrine’ Defense Cooperation: for cyber From Common operations and Threats to Common taking steps to help Solutions, German Marshall Fund, Policy member states Brief No.38, 15 enhance their cyber December 2017 defences. Some reports suggest NATO made one of its that this may biggest policy shifts in decades to send a message to Russia, include offensive cyber capabilities. Business Insider 13 December 2017

In December, NATO carried out a series U.S. Military and NATO may now Target of cyber exercises—Locked Shields and Russia with Cyberweapons, Marking Huge Crossed Swords—that included Policy Change, Newsweek, 13 December 2017 offensive tasks. Teams gathered at the NATO centre of excellence in Tallinn NATO centre draws up social media practiced not just how to keep exploitation goals, Jane’s International adversaries out of allied networks, but Defence Review, 8 December 2017 how to penetrate and defeat enemy Must Read: Thomas Ricks, NATO’s Little systems, working in tandem with Noticed but Important New Aggressive special operations teams to simulate Stance on Cyber Weapons, Foreign Policy, 7 hacking a moving train to allow December 2017 - Not many people noticed

13 it, but last month, NATO made a dramatic NATO explores internet of things’ change in its cyber policy. situational awareness, IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, 10 October 2017 Why the world needs a NATO for cyberwarfare, CNN, 6 December 2017 Baltics battle Russia in online disinformation war, Deutsche Welle, 8 NATO considers a more aggressive cyber October 2017 - From the hacking attack on defense strategy, Data Center Dynamics, 1 Estonia in 2007 to the fake news targeting December 2017 the NATO battalions on the alliance's NATO’s flagship cyber exercise begins in eastern border in 2017 — the Baltic states Estonia, NATO News Release, 28 November have been the bull's-eye of Russian-backed 2017 digital warfare

Tomáš Minárik and Siim Alatalu, EU Cybersecurity Package: New Potential for Defence Budgets and EU to Cooperate with NATO, CCDCOE News, Procurement 20 November 2017

NATO just added cyber weapons to its Each NATO member state was meant to armoury - Military alliance wants to be following a 2% of GDP defence encompass member countries' spending guideline agreed in 2006, but cyberwarfare capabilities into its options, not all states were doing so. At the ZD Net, 9 November 2017 2014 NATO summit in Wales, members

NATO STRATCOM center identifies pledged to stop cutting their defence ''robotrolling" threat, LSM.LV, 8 November expenditure and “move toward” that 2% 2017 guideline within 10 years. Since then,

NATO pressing forward on cyber defense, member states’ defence expenditures official says, The Hill, 6 November 2017 have increased steadily.

How NATO is preparing to fight tomorrow’s Saab announced in October that it will information wars, Defense One, 26 October upgrade the Sindre 1 air surveillance 2017 radars in Norway under a contract NATO says priority is to strengthen cyber received from the NATO Support and defenses as BadRabbit ransomware hits Procurement Agency. The radars have Ukraine, The Defense Post, 26 October been in operation in Norway since the 2017 early 1990s and are part of NATO's

NATO chief says allies concerned about chain of radar systems. The value of the Russian phone jamming, Washington Post, contract was not disclosed. 26 October 2017 NATO Next Steps: Upgrade the Role of Hackers targeting NATO and U.S. military Finance Ministers, The National Interest, 27 cyber-experts, Digital Journal, 23 October December 2017 2017 Europe’s East Flank May Have NATO to NATO’s cyber security hampered by old- Thank for Investment Jump, Bloomberg, 21 style cost models and acquisition delays, December 2017 IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, 20 October 2017 MDA to provide maritime command and control solution to NATO, prnewswire, 21 Leonardo Completes NATO Cyber Defense December 2017 System Installation, Defense World, 19 October 2017 Elbit Systems Gets $46 Million NATO Contract for Aircraft Protection Systems, Jan Neutze, NATO’s fifth domain: Shoring- Haaretz.com, 20 December 2017 up cyber defense needs public-private partnerships, EU Policy Blog, 16 October For NATO, True Interoperability Is No 2017 Longer Optional, Defense One, 18 December 2017 Cyber threats are among top dangers, says Nato, Computer Weekly, 11 October 2017 NATO retires second E-3A to ‘boneyard’, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 15 December 2017

Distorted NATO Funding Figure, Elisabeth Braw, The 2% benchmark is FactCheck.org, 14 December 2017 blinding us to NATO members’ actual contributions, Defense One, 12 October NATO signs ELGTR follow-on agreement 2017 with Lockheed Martin, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 14 December 2017 Saab upgrading Norwegian radars under NATO contract, UPI, 11 October 2017 Lockheed to supply ELGTRs to Nato member countries, Air Force Technology, 11 December 2017 Demographic Trends and NATO’s Stoltenberg: Preserving peace by Security spending more, and better, on defense, Defense News, 11 December 2017 Abstract: Russia, cyberterrorism, Da’esh are among the most quoted Natalia Utrero-González, Jana Hromcová challenges to NATO mentioned in the and Francisco J. Callado-Muñoz, Defence Spending, Institutional Environment and organizations’ documents, specialized Economic Growth: Case of NATO, Defence literature and newspaper articles. How and Peace Economics, 2017 about a subtler, less striking but real challenge like demographic change? Rainer Glatz and Martin Zapfe, NATO’s Demographic trends are increasingly Framework Nations Concept, CSS Analyses in Security Policy, No. 218, December 2017 recognized as relevant in understanding international politics John Dowdy, More tooth, less tail: Getting and particularly international security, beyond NATO’s 2 percent rule, McKinsey, but only seldom taken into November 2017 consideration when dealing with Valbona Zeneli, Why NATO's European NATO’s future challenges. NATO, Members Can No Longer Expect America to hence, suffers from the limits of a Pick Up the Bill, National Interest, 26 political–military institution designed November 2017 for a post-Second World War Ministerial meeting on Airbus A400M demographic and security context that delayed until February: sources, Reuters, is changing drastically – and is 10 November 2017 expected to change even more in the

NATO allies battle for spoils of big foreseeable future. The aim of this spending, Politico, 10 November 2017 article is to explore the current and projected demographic trends at the Assegai aims to squeeze more reach out of NATO howitzers, IHS Jane’s Defence global level, evaluate their security Weekly, 10 November 2017 implications and then draw inferences for the challenges and opportunities Three more nations join Danish-led NATO that will arise for NATO out of the group to bulk purchase PGMs, IHS Jane’s sketched scenarios. Based on this Defence Weekly, 9 November 2017 analysis, we posit that the Alliance is Michael O’Hanlon, NATO Procurement and facing a demographic paradox, Modernisation: Towards an Innovative whereby it is increasingly unable to Alliance with Much More Deployable cope with external demographic Combat Capability, Supporting Paper of the challenges because internal GLOBSEC NATO Adaptation Initiative, October 2017 demographic changes are weakening the cohesion needed to provide an National Armaments Directors discuss effective response. multinational cooperation, counterterrorism and innovation, NATO News Michela Ceccorulli, Enrico Fassi and Sonia Release, 26 October 2017 Lucarelli, NATO’s demographic paradox,

Rex Tillerson overstates Donald Trump's Global Change, Peace & Security, 29:3, effect on increased NATO defense 2017, pp. 249-271 spending, PolitiFact, 15 October 2017

Enlargement & Statement by the Partnerships NATO Secretary General on the From NATO’s security verdict against Ratko posters collection – Mladic, NATO Press credit: NATO Release, 22 November 2017 Armenia NATO Military Armenia Committee’s visit contributes to shows continued NATO-led support for Bosnia and Herzegovina, operations and NATO News Release, cooperates with 17 November 2017 NATO and other partner countries in Bosnia Making many other areas. Military Progress in NATO Bid - Alliance Support for General, US News/ Armenia’s reform Reuters, 14 efforts is a priority November 2017 for NATO. NATO Secretary NATO Deputy General: Bosnia and Secretary General Herzegovina is a visits Yerevan and highly valued NATO thanks Armenia for partner, NATO News contributions to NATO missions, NATO Release, 24 October 2017

News Release, 18 December 2017 Bosnia's Serb region declares neutrality in

bid to block NATO membership, Reuters, 18 October 2017 Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan joined Partnership for Peace Bosnian Serbs pass resolution against NATO membership, Miami Herald, 18 in 1994 and contributes to NATO-led October 2017 operations and cooperates with the alliance and other partner countries in EU force helps Bosnian agencies fight many other areas. NATO supports the terrorists in NATO-backed drill, Reuters, 13 country’s defence reform efforts. October 2017

Secretary General welcomes President of Azerbaijan to NATO Headquarters, NATO China-NATO relations

News Release, 23 November 2017 NATO has maintained a dialogue with NATO Chief, Azerbaijani President Discuss countries that are not part of its Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, Radio Free partnership frameworks, on an ad-hoc Europe/ Radio Libert, 23 November 2017 basis, since the 1990s. One such country is China.

Bosnia Herzegovina Panel urges NATO to step up dialogue with Bosnia and Herzegovina joined China, Politico, 27 November 2017 Partnership for Peace in 2006 and since 2009 has contributed to the NATO-led Chinese navy visits London in show of power and persuasion, Financial Times, 4 mission in Afghanistan. NATO supports October 2017 democratic, institutional, security sector and defence reforms in the country, as part of an anticipated future EU-NATO Relations membership of the alliance. Following the signature of the Joint Declaration on NATO-EU cooperation in

Warsaw in July 2016, NATO and the EU called Permanent Structured have been discussing how to expand Cooperation (PESCO) involves 23 of the their joint work, including by bringing EU’s 28 member states. Ireland and more coherence in their respective Portugal are expected to join later. defence capability development Denmark, Malta and the UK will priorities and output. probably stay out. All EU countries in Central and Eastern Europe have signed At the December NATO Foreign up, despite their wariness of weakening Ministers meeting it was agreed to step defence ties with the United States. The up cooperation with the EU on a effort is backed by a €5-billion defence ‘common set of proposals’, including in fund launched by the European three new areas: military mobility, Commission this summer. information sharing in the fight against terrorism, and promoting women’s role in peace and security. (EU-NATO Joint Declaration: implementation - infographic – credit European Council) Earlier in November, European countries agreed to deepen defence cooperation outside NATO. The so-

Sarwar Kashmeri, A Chance to Make NATO country’s leading newspaper, Great Again, US News, 20 December 2017 Helsingin, on 5 November.

NATO Secretary General welcomes stronger European defence, stresses need for In October, the EU and NATO teamed complementarity, NATO News Release, 14 up to open a new hybrid threat ‘centre December 2017 of excellence’ in Finland. The centre is designed to fight hybrid threats from Christine Nissen, Forged in Crisis - The EU’S ‘tweets to tanks’. Common Security and Defence Policy after Brexit, Danish Institute for International Yle poll: Only a fifth of Finns back NATO Studies, DIIS Report 2017: 12, December membership, YLE, 13 December 2017 2017 Russia-NATO Cold War leads Finland to NATO and the European Union deepen build military 100 years after cooperation on cyber defence, NATO News independence, Newsweek, 7 December Release, 8 December 2017 2017

NATO IMS and EUMS Senior Military Joining NATO Would Help Finland's Security Officials discuss enhanced EU-NATO but Unlikely for Now: Finance Minister, US cooperation, NATO News Release, 1 News, 29 November 2017 December 2017 Study: Interest in NATO waning, faith in EU NATO Doesn't Need a European Rival, stable, YLE, 29 November 2017 Bloomberg editorial, 30 November 2017 Director General of the NATO International NATO Secretary General welcomes PESCO, Military Staff visits Finland, NATO News stresses need for complementarity, Release, 27 November 2017 European Western Balkans, 14 November 2017 Majority Finns oppose to joining Nato, New Europe, 6 November 2017 EU Countries Deepen Defense Cooperation Outside NATO, Atlantic Sentinel, 13 In Finland, Mattis backs creation of a hybrid November 2017 - Countries agree to raise warfare center focused on Russia, military spending, pool procurement and Washington Post, 6 November 2017 avoid competition between European Finland’s presidential hopefuls debate Nato defence contractors membership, New Europe, 1 November Emile Fabre, NATO is obsolete, how 2017

European defence will extinct the Atlantic Finnish President Says Joining NATO Would dinosaur, Poliheor, 3 October 2017 Require Referendum, US News, 30 October EU gears up to boost cyber defences and 2017 co-operation with NATO, IHS Jane’s Defence Wary of Russia, Finns take another look at Weekly, 3 October 2017 NATO, Politico, 30 October 2017

Finland debates joining NATO despite Finland Russian warnings, Deutsche Welle, 9 October 2017 Finland joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace in 1994 and became a member EU-NATO hybrid threat center launched in of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council Finland, Deutsche Welle, 3 October 2017 in 1997. Finland is one of NATO’s most Hybrid threats are real, but they should not active partners and has contributed to be exaggerated, says Niinistö, Helsinki NATO-led operations and missions in Times, 3 October 2017 the Balkans and Afghanistan. It is one Secretary General participates in Hybrid of five countries that has enhanced Centre of Excellence inauguration with opportunities for dialogue and Finnish leaders and EU High cooperation with NATO. However, a Representative, NATO News Release, 2 majority of Finns (59%) are opposed to October 2017 Finland joining NATO, according to a new opinion poll published by the

Georgia Israel

Georgia joined Partnership for Peace in Israel is a member of NATO’s 1994 and aspires to join NATO. The Mediterranean Dialogue (see below), NATO-Georgia Commission established but has also been developing stronger in 2008 provides the framework for bilateral relationships with the alliance. close political dialogue and For example, Israel is now being invited cooperation in support of the country’s to take part in NATO naval drills and is reform efforts and its Euro-Atlantic developing maritime partnerships with aspirations. NATO countries.

In November, NATO successfully Yaakov Lappin, Israeli and NATO Navies completed a three-year project to clear Ramp Up Ties, BESA Perspectives, Paper No. 686, 17 December 2017 unexploded ordnance from an ammunition depot in central Georgia. Israeli and NATO Navies Ramp Up Working Relationship, Algemeiner, 1 December Patrick Buchanan, The Loose Canon the 2017 Neocons Wanted in NATO, The American NATO and Israel sign agreement on the Conservative, 8 December 2017 protection of exchanged classified NATO successfully finishes clearing information, NATO News Release, 28 unexploded ordnance at site in Georgia, November 2017 NATO Support and Procurement Agency, IDF chief makes secret trip to Brussels to 15 November 2017 meet NATO head, The Times of Israel, 12 NATO fleet visits Georgia's Black Sea port, November 2017 Xinhua Nt,4 November 2017 Israel Growing in Strategic Importance for President Margvelashvili: Georgia Believes NATO, Jerusalem Post, 7 October 2017 that NATO, Effective Security Organization, Ensures Its Members' Stability and Peace, Japan The Financial, 18 October 2017

OCC E&F conference: Georgia hosts Japan is the longest-standing of NATO’s prestigious NATO event for first time, ‘partners across the globe’. Building on Agend.ge, 4 October 2017 initial contacts in the early 1990s, dialogue on common security interests has become more regular and Iraq structured. NATO and Japan signalled NATO and Iraq are engaged in political their commitment to strengthen dialogue and practical cooperation cooperation in a joint political aimed at developing the capacity of declaration signed in April 2013. Iraq’s security forces, its defence and security institutions, and its national During his visit to Japan in October, the defence academies. NATO secretary general said he was looking to strengthen and broaden the NATO trains Iraqi Security Forces to partnership between NATO and Japan strengthen demining skills, NATO News to address North Korean threats to Release, 21 December 2017 regional stability and global issues NATO trains Iraqi medical officers in including cyberattacks. cooperation with Serbia, NATO News Release, 11 December 2017 Secretary General: NATO stands in solidarity with Asia-Pacific region, NATO NATO continues to build Iraqi security News Release, 31 October 2017 capacity through vehicles maintenance training in Iraq, NATO News Release, 2 Secretary General: NATO and Japan are October 2017 natural partners, NATO News Release, 31 , October 2017

Joint press point by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the Prime

Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, 31 October Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia. The 2017 MD aims to contribute to regional

Abe notes North Korean threat to Europe as security and stability, achieve better Japan and NATO agree on need for boosted mutual understanding, and dispel any pressure, The Japan Times, 31 October misconceptions about NATO among 2017 Dialogue countries.

NATO Secretary General outlines new NATO defence education experts visit ''Geography of Danger'', NATO News Tunisia, NATO News Release, 12 December Release, 31 October 2017 2017

The geography of danger has shifted - NATO trains Egyptian experts in improvised Speech by NATO Secretary General Jens explosive devices investigation, NATO Stoltenberg at the Japan National Press News Release, 4 December 2017 Club, 31 October 2017 NATO and Algeria hold workshop on critical NATO Secretary General arrives in Japan, energy infrastructure security, NATO News NATO News Release, 30 October 2017 Release, 20 November 2017

NATO chief seeks stronger, broader NATO and MD partners meet in Mauritania partnership with Japan, Kyodo News, 28 for the Fifth Mediterranean Dialogue Policy October 2017 Advisory Group (MD PAG), NATO News

Release, 5 October 2017 Jordan

Jordan is a member of NATO’s Moldova

Mediterranean Dialogue (see below), Moldova contributes to the NATO-led and the alliance supports the country in operation in Kosovo and cooperates the areas of cyber defence, border with the alliance and other partner security and counter improvised countries in many other areas. NATO explosive devices (C-IED). supports the country’s reform efforts

Trust Fund to help Jordan destroy and and especially capacity-building in the recycle ammunition enters fourth phase, defence and security sector. In NATO News Release, 22 November 2017 December NATO opened a new liaison office in Moldova.

Macedonia What Moldova's new NATO office means for Russia—and the EU, EuroNews, 26 The former Yugoslav Republic of December 2017 Macedonia joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace in 1995 and agreed a NATO opens new Moldova office, Emerging Europe, 10 December 2017 Membership Action Plan in 1999. Beyond the need to make progress on NATO Deputy Secretary General reforms, the country must find a inaugurates new NATO Liaison Office in mutually acceptable solution with Moldova, NATO News Release, 8 December 2017 Greece to the issue over its name before it can be invited to join NATO. Secretary General: NATO supports a stable,

NATO discusses defence and security secure and neutral Moldova, NATO News sector reforms in Skopje, NATO News Release, 23 November 2017

Release, 9 November 2017 OSCE-NATO relations

Mediterranean Dialogue NATO and the OSCE cooperate at both

NATO’s Mediterranean Dialogue (MD) the political and operational levels in was initiated in 1994 by the North conflict prevention and resolution, Atlantic Council and currently involves post-conflict rehabilitation, border seven non-NATO countries in the security, small arms and light weapons, region: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and arms control, as well as in

20 addressing emerging security geopolitical flashpoints and limits for challenges expansion, Defense & Security Analysis, 33:4, 2017, pp. 366-379., NATO Deputy Secretary General discusses deterrence and dialogue at OSCE Ministerial Roger Boyes, Nato must stop growing if it Council, NATO News Release, 7 December wants to survive, The Times, 15 November 2017 2017

James Carden, Is now the time to consider Policy expanding NATO? The Nation, 31 October 2017 Publication in December of documents Stephen Cohen, Have 20 Years of NATO from the George Washington Expansion Made Anyone Safer? The Nation, University’s National Security Archives 18 October 2017 -Since 1997, the world’s reveal the extent to which promises perhaps most powerful corporation and made to Mikhail Gorbachev about lobbyist has created more insecurity than NATO expansion were simply ignored. security

John Dobson, The Perfidious West: Why Putin’s suspicion is justified, Sunday Science for Peace and Security Guardian, 23 December 2017 Programme

“In today’s Washington, where NATO’s Science for Peace and Security Russophobia runs rampant, it has Programme promotes dialogue and become fashionable to speak of a New practical cooperation between NATO Cold War, provoked by Putin’s member states and partner nations aggressive actions. Yet if we are indeed based on scientific research, embarking upon a new age of technological innovation and brinksmanship, we can trace its origins knowledge exchange. to 1990 when Putin was merely a NATO supports Mauritania in enhancing its disgruntled KGB colonel and we were crisis management system, NATO News playing the Soviets for suckers”. Release, 12 December 2017

Andrew Bacevich, When Washington NATO launches first scientific cooperation Assured Russia NATO Would Not Expand, initiative with Algeria, NATO News Release, The American Conservative, 20 December 26 October 2017 2017

Eric Margolis, No to Eastward NATO Serbia

Expansion? 'Sorry Chump, You Didn't Have Unlike other Western Balkan partners, It in Writing', Common Dreams, 17 Serbia does not aspire to join NATO. December 2017 - Is it any wonder after this bait and switch diplomacy that Russia has However, the country is deepening its no trust in the Western powers? political dialogue and cooperation with the alliance on issues of common Leonid Bershidsky, The Story Behind Putin's interest, such as defence reforms. Mistrust of the West, Bloomberg, 13 December 2017 Public diplomacy – The weakest link in

Newly Declassified Documents: Gorbachev Serbia-NATO relations, European Western Balkans, 28 December 2017 Told NATO Wouldn't Move Past East German Border, National Interest, 12 Cyber security: New area of cooperation December 2017 between Serbia and NATO? European

Must Read Western Balkans, 25 December 2017 : Svetlana Savranskaya and Tom Blanton, NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Serbia and NATO: Assistance in developing Heard, National Security Archive, 12 capabilities for multinational peace December 2017 operations, European Western Balkans, 18

Paul Antonopoulos, Renato Velez and Drew December 2017 Cottle, NATO’s push into the Caucasus:

[EWB Interview] Filipović: Cooperation with Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council in NATO not against Serbia’s military 1997. Sweden is one of five countries neutrality, European Western Balkans, 12 that has enhanced opportunities for

December 2017 dialogue and cooperation with NATO. NATO trains Serbian civil servants in cyber defence, NATO News Release, 24 NATO should defend Sweden, Finland if November 2017 attacked: NATO official, Reuters, 29 November 2017 Secretary General: NATO is committed to building a strong partnership with Serbia, Major NATO Exercise with Sweden NATO News Release, 15 November 2017 Highlights Ability to Deter Russian Aggression, Daily Signal, 3 November 2017 Vuk Velebit, Serbia and NATO: From hostility to close cooperation, European Western Balkans, 15 November 2017 UAE

NATO "accepts Serbia's determination to be NATO and the UAE reinforced their neutral", B92, 13 October 2017 partnership and set out their priorities

NATO Deputy Secretary General discusses for future cooperation in Individual partnership between Serbia and NATO in Partnership and Cooperation Belgrade, NATO News Release, 12 October Programme in October 2016. 2017 UAE and NATO discuss increased military cooperation, DubaiEye, 14 November 2017 South Korea

NATO and South Korea are currently Ukraine strengthening relations to address There are 10 diverse NATO-Ukraine shared security challenges, building on ‘trust funds’. One of these focuses on dialogue and cooperation that have boosting Ukraine’s cyber defences; been developing since 2005. under Romanian leadership it is ‘NATO, Korea partners in universal providing equipment, training and peacemaking’, Korea Herald, 6 November expertise to build computer emergency 2016 response teams for the government

Emmanuele Scimia, Military alliance looks and security services. In October, the to the Far East, Asia Times, 6 November US pledged $5 million to Ukraine’s 2017 cyber security effort and discussed “ways to protect critical infrastructure President seeks better relationship with and military systems”. NATO, Korea Daily, 3 November 2017

Secretary General stresses value of NATO In late October, Hungary vetoed a partnerships in visit to Republic of Korea, planned December meeting of the NATO News Release, 2 November 2017 NATO-Ukraine Commission, because it

Press point by NATO Secretary General Jens considered that a law on education Stoltenberg at ASAN Institute for Policy recently passed by the Ukrainian Studies, Seoul, Repubic of Korea, 2 parliament threatens to deprive the November 2017 Hungarian-speaking minority there of educational opportunities in their

Sweden native language.

NATO and Sweden actively cooperate in In late December, the Trump peace and security operations, and the administration approved the first ever country has been a major contributor to US commercial sale of lethal defensive NATO-led operations and missions in weapons to Ukraine, in what amounts the Balkans and Afghanistan. Sweden to a clear break from the de facto ban joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace in on arms sales dating back to the 1994 and became a member of the Obama administration. The US State

Department approved the export of Ex-NATO Chief says Putin's UN Peacekeeper Model M107A1 Sniper Systems, Proposal for Ukraine needs 'Reshaping', ammunition, and associated parts and Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, 11 October 2017 accessories to Ukraine, a sale valued at $41.5 million. The US Congress Ukraine and Nato team up to learn lessons authorized such sales with the Ukraine from Russia's hybrid war, Irish Times, 7 Freedom Support Act in 2014. October 2017 - West helps Kiev change how it fights on the battlefield and in John Deni, Tie Lethal Aid for Ukraine to an cyberspace Admission that NATO made a Mistake, War NATO supported idea of UN peacekeepers on the Rocks, 22 December 2017 throughout territory of ORDLO, Front News, Trump administration approves lethal arms 5 October 2017 sales to Ukraine, The Washington Post, 20

December 2017 UN-NATO Relations Ukraine's Poroshenko says NATO, EU referendums to be held soon, Radio Free NATO and the UN have been Europe/ Radio Liberty, 1 December 2017 cooperating since the early 1990s on peace-support and crisis-management Ukraine’s Defense Ministry says about pragmatism in cooperation with NATO, Kyiv operations. At the 2015 Leaders’ Post, 30 November 2017 Summit on Peacekeeping, the NATO Secretary General pledged to enhance Klympush-Tsintsadze says most Ukrainians support to the UN, in particular in the support Ukraine’s accession to NATO, Kyiv areas of countering improvised Post, 20 November 2017 explosive devices, training and Inside a pro-Russia propaganda machine in preparedness, supporting the UN’s Ukraine, BBC News, 13 November 2017 efforts to deploy more rapidly and NATO says Ukraine lags with working more closely on capacity implementation of annual action plan, building in countries at risk. Unian, 9 November 2017 NATO building capacity against drug Hungary blocking effective development of trafficking, NATO News Release, 28 further Ukraine-NATO meetings – Ukraine November 2017 Vice PM, Unian, 9 November 2017 NATO participates in UN Peacekeeping Why NATO is not ready to engage with Ministerial in Vancouver, NATO News Ukraine on MAP, Unian, 7 November 2017 Release, 16 November 2017 Is NATO doing enough to pressure Russia over Ukraine? Deutsche Welle, 7 November History 2017

Ukrainian Armed Forces must switch to The Crisis of NATO Political Consultation, NATO standards today – Poroshenko, 1973–1974: From DEFCON III to the Interfax, 3 November 2017 Atlantic Declaration, H-Diplo Article Review 733, 22 December 2017 Hungary vetoes Ukraine-NATO Commission meeting in Dec, Interfax Ukraine, 28 Institutional Reform October 2017

Vadym Prystaiko, Head of Ukraine's Mission Command structure reforms to enable to NATO - NATO's position remains the more rapid deployment of forces in unchanged: Russia has to get out of Europe were agreed when NATO Ukraine, Ukrinform, 24 October 2017—In defence ministers met in November an interview, Ambassador Vadym Prystaiko (see below). Measures agreed included spoke about ambitious plans for political establishing two new headquarters— and diplomatic partnership between one focused on securing transit routes Ukraine and NATO by sea and another to deal with Ukraine will definitely join NATO – guarding supply lines across land in president, Ukrinform, 14 October 2017 Europe. NATO member states are also

23 adapting national legislation to allow NATO opened a counter intelligence military equipment to transit faster hub in Poland in October aimed at across borders and are working on expanding the alliance’s intelligence- improving national infrastructure. This gathering capabilities. return to similar command structures used by the alliance during the Cold NATO opens counterespionage hub in Krakow as Russia tensions heat up, Japan War was outlined in a ‘secret’ report, Times, 20 October 2017 details of which were published in a German newspaper in October. NATO opens counter-espionage hub in Poland, Digital Journal, 19 October 2017 U.S. general backs Germany to host new NATO operations command, Reuters, 28 November 2017 Maritime Security

Echoes of Cold War as NATO Mulls New NATO: Current maritime environment North Atlantic Command, US News, 6 poses threats to us, New Europe, 27 November 2017 October 2017

Eyeing Russia, NATO ministers to consider new Atlantic and logistics commands, IHS Military Exercises Jane’s Defence Weekly, 25 October 2017

Russia has world's 'Most Powerful Army' The fallout from the Russian Zapad and will respond to NATO Expansion, 2017 exercise in September continued Lawmaker Says, Newsweek, 25 October into the last quarter of 2017 (see the 2017 essay above and NATO Watch

Mattis, allies eye faster military movement Observatory No. 45). In December, a across Europe, Stars and Stripes, 24 German newspaper reported unnamed October 2017 intelligence sources as claiming that the exercise rehearsed the capture of Fear of war with Russia prompts NATO to the Baltic States, bombing raids on reorganize, Newsweek, 24 October 2017 Germany and other NATO members, as Internal NATO report reveals weaknesses in well as attacks on neutral countries. defence, Euractiv, 24 October 2017

NATO Plans to Create Two New Commands In 2019, NATO will go from one large- Amid Russia Tensions, Wall Street Journal, scale joint annual drill to three, as part 24 October 2017 of a broader effort by NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander, Gen. Curtis M. Must Read: NATO Grapples with Serious Scaparrotti, to add a sharper edge to its Organizational Shortcomings, Der Spiegel, 20 October 2017 command and control structures.

Putin's Zapad 2017 simulated a war against NATO, Bild, 19 December 2017 Intelligence Dave Johnson, ZAPAD 2017 and Euro- On 21 October 2016, NATO appointed Atlantic security, NATO Review, 14 its first Assistant Secretary General for December 2017 Intelligence and Security (ASG-I&S) and earlier in 2017 opened its new Joint After Russia’s Ukraine incursion, NATO Intelligence and Security Division (JISD). troops drill for war on a Cold-War scale, PBS, 11 December 2017 In response to the challenging threat environment posed by an assertive Lee Litzenberger, Beyond Zapad 2017: Russia and the rise of terrorism and Russia’s Destabilizing Approach to Military instability in the south, the member Exercises, War on the Rocks, 28 November 2017 states are fundamentally adapting how NATO organises and analyses Lessons from Zapad – jamming, NATO and intelligence. the future of Belarus, Navy Times, 23 November 2017

Finnish expert: Russia's Zapad 2017 war Navy Submarine Rescue Unit Participates games were not anti-Nato drills, YLE, 15 in NATO Exercise, US Department of November 2017 Defense, 2 October 2017

R.G. Gidadhubli, Russia’s Military Exercise US Army lt. gen. says Russian war games ‘Zapad 2017’ is causing Heartburn in the broke observer rules, ABC News, 2 October West, Mainstream, VOL LV No 45 New 2017 Delhi, 28 October 2017 Vast Exercise Demonstrated Russia’s NATO puts pressure on Russia to be more Growing Military Prowess, New York Times, transparent about military exercises, 1 October 2017 Brussels Times, 28 October 2017

US to question Zapad war games at NATO- Missile Defence Russia meet, Washington Post, 24 October 2017 Since 2002, the Aegis Ballistic Missile

NATO Practices Delicate Task of Submarine Defence (BMD) system has reportedly Rescue, Wall Street Journal, 22 October achieved 36 successful missile 2016 intercepts out of 44 attempts. Under the European Phased Adaptive #NATO-#Russia relations: Messages from Zapad 2017, EU Observer, 18 October 2017 Approach (EPAA) for European BMD operations, BMD-capable Aegis ships NATO Shows Its Maritime Strength During are operating in European waters to Ex Brilliant Mariner, Forces Network, 16 defend Europe from potential ballistic October 2017 missile attacks, supposedly from PHOTOS: NATO navies hold massive missile countries such as Iran and North Korea. defense drill in Scotland as tensions with Two Aegis Ashore sites in Poland and North Korea continues to mount, Business Romania are also part of the EPAA. Insider, 13 October 2017

US, NATO grappling with intelligence rules In November, it was reported that the in bid for more war games, Stars and Trump administration is expanding its Stripes, 11 October 2017 strategy to defend the United States against North Korean missiles with an Must Read: Guillaume Lasconjarias and Lukáš Dyčka, Dealing with the Russian Bear: emergency request to Congress for $4 Improving NATO’s Response to Moscow’s billion. The request envisions the Military Exercise Zapad 2017, Instituto stepped-up use of cyber weapons to Affari Internazionali, 12 October 2017 interfere with North Korea’s control systems before missiles are launched, Ihor Kabanenko, Zapad 2017: Lessons as well as drones and combat aircraft to Learned by Russia and Implications for NATO, Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 shoot them down moments after Issue: 125, 6 October 2017 launch. The missile defence network on the US West Coast would also be 40,000 took part in Russia war games, expanded for use if everything else Japan News, 4 October 2017 fails. US, NATO allies showcase fighting capabilities during Exercise Bayonet Shield, In December, Poland’s Defence Minister US Army, 4 October 2017 Bartosz Kownacki said the cost of the

U.S., NATO Allies Showcase Fighting Patriot missile defence system that it is Capabilities at Bayonet Shield Exercise, US buying from the US “came as a surprise Department of Defense, 3 October 2017 for us”. The $10.5 billion price tag for two batteries was nearly $2 billion Brilliant Mariner: Showcasing NATO more than Polish officials had Maritime Strength, Allied Maritime Command, 2 October 2017 expected.

"Falcon Defence 2017" brings Portuguese F- Poland has sticker shock over 16s to Romania, Allied Air Command, 2 ‘unacceptable’ price tag for Patriot buy, October 2017 Defense News, 7 December 2017

Downing North Korean missiles is hard. So NATO Defence Ministers Meeting the U.S. is experimenting, New York Times, Brussels, 8-9 November 2017 16 November 2017 The two-day meeting was focused on White House requests $4B for missile four main issues: an update on NATO’s defense to counter North Korea, The Hill, 6 November 2017 nuclear weapons policy (as part of a regular discussion held under the Katarzyna Kubiak, A strategic culture Nuclear Planning Group); a review of analysis of German ballistic missile defense NATO’s Command Structure and cyber policy, Comparative Strategy, 36:4, 2017, defences; a discussion of global pp.333-353 threats, including North Korea; and a Must Read: Tytti Erästö, Time for Europe to review of the mission in Afghanistan. put Iran’s missile programme in context, There was also a side meeting of the SIPRI Commentary, 30 October 2017 Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS hosted Aerojet Rocketdyne Propulsion Supports by the US defence Secretary. Key NATO’s “Formidable Shield” Missile decisions taken: Defense Test, Business Insider 18 October • An outline decision was taken to 2017 adapt the NATO Command Raytheon Tests SM-3 Missile System During Structure, with two new NATO-led Exercise, Defense World, 18 commands—an Atlantic October 2017 Command and a Logistics US, allies practice shooting down ballistic Command—to improve the missiles amid global tensions, Stars and movement of troops across the Stripes, 18 October 2017 Atlantic and within Europe (final

Raytheon systems support complex decisions are expected at the international ballistic missile defense February 2018 ministerial). exercise, Markets Insider, 17 October 2017 • It was agreed to create a new

Aegis Combat System Successfully Cyber Operations Centre as part Completes Series of Air and Missile Defense of the outline design for the Tests During NATO Exercise, PR Newswire, adapted NATO Command 17 October 2017 Structure.

Must Read: Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang, • The number of NATO troops in Deadly Overconfidence: Trump Thinks Afghanistan will be increased Missile Defenses Work Against North from about 13,000 to 16,000 in Korea, And That Should Scare You, War on 2018 to strengthen the Resolute the Rocks, 16 October 2017 Support Mission (to train, assist

Navy, NATO Forces Conduct Integrated Air and advise Afghan Security and Missile Defense Exercise Off Scotland, Forces). It was also agreed to US Naval Institute, 16 October 2017 continue funding Afghan Security Forces until at least 2020. U.S. Warship Shoots Down Ballistic Missile Finland, Hungary and the United Over Scotland in NATO Live Fire Drills, • Newsweek, 16 October 2017 Kingdom joined a long-standing multinational effort to acquire Air- NATO Chief Concerned About Iran Missile to-Ground Precision Guided Programme, NDTV/ AFP, 13 October 2017 Munitions. Army missile defense chief: We are prepared to counter North Korean threat, Mattis Says NATO Seeks Russia's Defense News, 9 October 2017 Compliance with Nuclear Treaty After 'Violations', Radio Free Europe/ Radio ‘Formidable Shield 2017’ exercises NATO Liberty, 10 November 2017 integrated air and missile defence capabilities, IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, 2 NATO Defence Ministers agree to adapt October 2017 command structure, boost Afghanistan troop levels, NATO News Release, 9 November 2017

NATO Ministers boost troops for Afghan a commitment to the country’s training mission, NATO News Release, 9 eventual membership of NATO. November 2017 • NATO’s ‘Open Door’ policy was Trump added troops in Afghanistan. But also reaffirmed, and progress of NATO is still short of meeting its goal, each aspirant country will be Washington Post, 9 November 2017 reviewed at the next Foreign

11 NATO Allies and Finland united in Ministers meeting in April 2018. buying Precision Guided Munitions, NATO • NATO’s role in ‘projecting News Release, 9 November 2017 stability and fighting terrorism’

Press conference by NATO Secretary was discussed, but no new General Jens Stoltenberg following the measures were adopted. meeting of the North Atlantic Council at the NATO, EU agree a new round of co- level of Defence Ministers, 8 November 2017 operation goals, although many remain abstract, Janes Defence Weekly, 8 NATO to Boost Command Sites, Cyber December 2017 Policy with Eye on Russia, Bloomberg, 8 Turkey’s foreign minister clears air with November 2017 NATO allies, Frontier Post, 7 December NATO agrees new military commands to 2017 protect Europe, Reuters, 8 November 2017 Stoltenberg: Partnership with Georgia Very NATO looks to seize momentum in Important for NATO, Georgia Today, 7 Afghanistan conflict, Digital Journal, 8 December 2017 November 2017 Ukraine concerned over intensification of NATO Defence Ministers meet to continue NATO-Russia contacts amid Moscow’s the Alliance’s adaptation for the 21st ongoing aggression in Ukraine: Envoy, Century, NATO News Release, 7 November Unian, 6 December 2017 2017 Tillerson takes tough line on Russia, open to peacekeepers, Reuters, 6 December 2017 NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting Brussels, 5-6 December 2017 Press Conference at NATO, Rex W. Tillerson, US Secretary of State, NATO Headquarters, Brussels, 6 December 2017 The two-day meeting was focused on five main issues: expanding Stoltenberg expresses NATO support for cooperation between NATO and the EU; Georgia, urges Russian troop pullout, Radio a discussion of global threats, Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, 6 December including North Korea and Russia; 2017

NATO’s role in ‘projecting stability’ and Stoltenberg stresses NATO’s ‘Defense and counter-terrorism, including a review of Dialogue’ approach to Russia, Radio Free the training mission in Afghanistan and Europe/ Radio Liberty, 6 December 2017

NATO’s role in the Global Coalition to NATO Ministers affirm support for Georgia, Defeat ISIS; a meeting of the NATO- NATO News Release, 6 December 2017 Georgia Commission; and a discussion on NATO’s ‘Open Door’ policy. Key NATO Foreign Ministers meeting wraps up decisions taken: in Brussels, NATO News Release, 6 December 2017 • It was agreed to step up cooperation with the EU on a Foreign Ministers agree new areas of NATO- EU cooperation, NATO News Release, 5 ‘common set of proposals’, December 2017 including in three new areas: military mobility, information NATO, EU agree mobilizing troops faster is sharing in the fight against a priority, Stars and Stripes, 5 December terrorism, and promoting 2017 women’s role in peace and security. • Practical and political support for Georgia was reaffirmed, as well as 27

NATO Foreign Ministers prepare for the In late October, the US Congressional Brussels Summit, NATO News release, 5 Budget Office (CBO) estimated that it December 2017 would cost about $1.2 trillion over the Secretary General: Alliance to further boost next 30 years to modernize the US cooperation with EU, NATO News Release, nuclear arsenal, and includes the 4 December 2017 replacement of nuclear-capable submarines, ICBMs, and new aircraft for the Air Force. The CBO warned that this NATO Parliamentary Assembly would impact on conventional weapons The NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s programmes in the coming years 63rd Annual Session took place in unless either the Pentagon’s budget is Bucharest, Romania, on 6-9 October. increased substantially or cost savings Some 300 MPs from the 29 NATO are made to the nuclear plans. For member countries, as well as delegates example, the Pentagon could save from partner countries and observers, $139 billion if it delayed production of assessed challenges facing the alliance, a new ICBM, stalled a secretive new including tense relations with Russia, nuclear-capable bomber called the B- security around the Black Sea, terror 21, and reduced the number of ICBMs threats emanating from Middle East and missile-carrying nuclear conflict zones, and new trends in submarines. All those plans are carry- information warfare. overs from the Obama administration, as the Trump administration has yet to NATO PA President in Cairo to strengthen articulate a nuclear weapons strategy. cooperation with Egypt, Arab institutions, NATO PA News, 26 October 2017 US military commanders would refuse

Secretary General addresses the NATO to carry out a presidential order to carry Parliamentary Assembly in Bucharest, out a nuclear first strike that they NATO News Release, 9 October 2017 thought was illegal, US senators were

Bucharest hosts NATO Parliamentary told in November. The assurances came Assembly, Radio Romania, 9 October 2017 at the first congressional hearings since 1976 on presidential authority to NATO PA voted for security resolution in order the use of the US nuclear arsenal, Black Sea, Front News, 9 October 2017 against a background of mounting NATO PA's draft resolution against concern over North Korea’s nuclear weaponization of information foresees programme and Donald Trump’s assistance to Ukraine, UNIAN, 9 October emotional stability. 2017

Bucharest hosts annual session of the More than 200 Italian Members of NATO Parliamentary Assembly, Romania Parliament from most parties have Insider, 6 October 2017 signed an ICAN parliamentary pledge and thereby committed themselves “to work for the signature and ratification” Nuclear Weapons and North of the nuclear ban by the Italian Korea Government. Italy is now well-

In October, NATO’s annual nuclear drill positioned to advance the conversation called ‘Steadfast Noon’, took place at on the Treaty on the Prohibition of two bases in Western Europe: Kleine Nuclear Weapons within NATO.

Brogel in Belgium and Buchel in On 10 December, the International Germany. Details of the exercise were Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons not made public but NATO officials (ICAN) received the 2017 Nobel Peace privately said it was the military Prize in Oslo. The Norwegian Nobel alliance's primary nuclear deterrent Committee, in awarding this year’s drill. prize to ICAN, also challenged the

Norwegian government’s history of Russia's Defense Minister Says, Newsweek, opposing a ban on nuclear weapons 10 November 2017 because it is a member of NATO. Several ambassadors from NATO The entanglement of non-nuclear member states, including France and weapons with nuclear weapons and the UK, snubbed the ceremony by their enabling capabilities is sending lower-level diplomats. exacerbating the risk of inadvertent escalation. The debate about the Rebecca Davis Gibbons, The 2017 Nobel severity of this risk has almost Peace Prize winner wants to ban nuclear exclusively involved US participants. In weapons. Here’s why the U.S. is opposed, Washington Post, 11 December 2017 this report, Carnegie teams from Russia and China set out to examine the issue Peace Prize puts squeeze on Norway, News and answer two questions: How serious in English, Norway, 10 December 2017 are the escalation risks arising from Solberg calls Nobel ceremony ‘difficult’, entanglement? And, how do the News in English, Norway, 10 December authors’ views compare to those of 2017 their countries’ strategic communities?

Must Read: Maxwell Dowwman, Changing Must Read: James Action (ed.), Nuclear Weapons Policy in the Trump Era, Entanglement: Russian and Chinese BASIC-ELN, December 2017 Perspectives on Non-Nuclear Weapons and

Jon Wolfsthal, Say No to New, Smaller Nuclear Risks, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2017 Nuclear Weapons, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 22 November 2017 Stephen J. Cimbala, Nuclear Crisis Must Read: Michael Klare, The Trump Management and Deterrence: America, Doctrine: Making Nuclear Weapons Usable Russia, and the Shadow of Cyber War, The Again, TomDispatch, 19 November 2017 Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 30:4, Flight tests help qualify nuclear bomb for 2017, pp.487-505

US, NATO aircraft, Kiertland Air Force Base, Kingston Reif, U.S. Nuclear Weapons in 14 November 2017 Turkey Raise Alarm, Arms Control Today,

Lawmakers, US allies seek assurance that November 2017

Trump won't rashly launch nuclear strike, NATO chief calls for increased pressure on CNN, 14 November 2017 N. Korea, The Korea Herald, 2 November

Nato country 'worried about Trump's 2017 control of nuclear weapons', The NATO chief calls on UN to uphold North Independent, 14 November 2017 Korea sanctions, Deutsche Welle, 1

US military leaders would reject illegal November 2017 order for nuclear strike, senators told, The North Korea accuses NATO chief of 'aping' Guardian, 14 November 2017 Trump, UPI, 1 November 2017

Deputy Secretary General stresses NATO’s Trump Plans for Nuclear Arsenal Require commitment to nuclear disarmament, $1.2 Trillion, Congressional Review States, NATO News Release, 10 November 2017 New York Times, 31 October 2017

Remarks by NATO Deputy Secretary NATO chief urges full implementation of General Rose Gottemoeller during a panel North Korean sanctions to counter global discussion on Perspectives for a World Free threat, Reuters, 31 October from Nuclear Weapons at Vatican city, 10 November 2017 North Korea could drop Nuclear Bombs on Europe, NATO warns, Newsweek, 30 NATO defends opposition to UN nuclear October 2017 ban treaty, Washington Post, 10 November 2017 NATO chief calls North Korea 'global threat', News 24, 30 October 2017 U.S. and Europe are developing Nuclear Weapons Use Procedures at Russian Border, Must Read: Douglas Roche, Will Trudeau’s nuclear stance be swayed by Setsuko

Thurlow? The Globe and Mail, 30 October advance disarmament, War on the Rocks, 4 2017 October 2017

NATO leader urges more pressure on N. Use of small tactical nuclear weapons Korea, The Japan News, 29 October 2017 proposed in U.S. policy review, Kyodo News, 1 October 2017 Italy’s parliamentarians spearhead efforts to ratify ban treaty, ICAN News, 25 October 2017 Operations and Missions Joseph Trevithick, NATO Members Train to Nuke a "Fictional" Enemy After Major Afghanistan Russian Drills, The Drive/ The War Zone, 18 October 2017 The Pentagon's new Afghanistan strategy comes with a new acronym: Must Read: Hans Kristensen, NATO Nuclear Exercise Underway with Czech and Polish R4+S. Testifying before the Senate Participation, Federation of American Armed Services Committee in October, Scientists, 17 October 2017 US Defense Secretary James Mattis characterized the Trump NATO conducts annual nuclear defense administration's Afghanistan strategy drill in Western Europe, UPI.com, 16 October 2017 as "R4+S" or "regionalize, realign, reinforce, reconcile and sustain". NATO Launches its Main Nuclear Drill, Secretary Mattis also testified that the Showcasing Its Defenses, Wall Street Pentagon will no longer disclose the Journal, 16 October 2017 numbers or destinations of troops NATO Says Countries Must Find a headed to Afghanistan, because he said Diplomatic Solution on North Korea, detailing specific numbers would help Bloomberg, 13 October 2017 the Taliban. Senator John McCain, the Trump Wanted Tenfold Increase in Nuclear chairman of the Senate Armed Services Arsenal, Surprising Military, NBC News, 11 Committee, criticised him for failing to October 2017 provide details on the administration’s

Ulrich Kühn and Tristan Volpe, Germany's Afghanistan strategy to Congress. At Nuclear Education. Why a Few Elites Are the end of October it was confirmed Testing a Taboo, The Washington that the Defense Department is also Quarterly, 40, no. 3, Fall 2017, pp. 7-27— classifying basic and formerly public Days after the 2016 US election, a small information about the size of Afghan group of German experts began to publicly forces, the number of casualties and debate whether Berlin should pursue one of the state of their equipment at the three nuclear options. Although the shallow request of the Afghan government. debate was short-lived, there is evidence that the proponents attempted to bring one or more verboten topics about nuclear “The Afghans know what’s going on; weapons and military strategy out of the the Taliban knows what’s going on; the shadows. Over time, this effort may turn U.S. military knows what’s going on. out to be a bellwether of fundamental The only people who don’t know what’s change in Germany’s national identity going on are the people paying for it.”

NATO gives frosty reception to ICAN Nobel John F. Sopko, the special inspector general win, AFP, 6 October 2017 for Afghanistan, Afghan War Data, Once NATO chief criticizes treaty pushed by Public, Is Censored in U.S. Military Report, Nobel Peace Prize winner, Politico, 6 New York Times, 30 October 2017

October 2017

NATO, Kremlin defend nuclear deterrence The latest report from the after ICAN Nobel win, The Times of Israel, congressionally-mandated Special 6 October 2017 Inspector General for Afghanistan

Jon Wolfsthal, More than paper: How Reconstruction states that the Afghan nuclear ban-treaty advocates can really government is losing control of more and more territory to the Taliban, and

30 that civilian casualties from coalition of NATO’s military committee and Afghan air strikes spiked by 52% in subsequently said that he has not seen the first nine months of 2017 "hard" evidence that Russia is supplying compared with 2016. arms to the Taliban.

US military aircraft dropped more Taliban attacks in October were bombs in Afghanistan in September widespread and included two separate than at any point since 2012, attacking assaults in which a least 46 Afghan the Taliban and the Islamic State with police officers and a senior general 751 munitions: a 50% increase from were killed in Paktia and Ghazni August. The US Air Force command in provinces; in another attack a small the Middle East said in a statement that Afghan army base in Kandahar was the increase “can be attributed to the destroyed killing 43 of 60 Afghan president’s strategy to more soldiers. proactively target extremist groups that threaten the stability and security In November, a joint US-Afghan military of the Afghan people”. The bombing operation reportedly killed the top al- campaign has been aided by the recent Qaeda leader in Afghanistan. A series of addition of six F-16s to Bagram Air air and ground operations in several Base, and more B-52s dedicated to Afghan provinces led to the death of Afghanistan. Omar bin Khatab and over 80 other al- Qaeda operatives. In addition, the A key target of the airstrikes will be the NATO Special Operations Component Afghan opium economy, which almost Command, Afghanistan announced in doubled in 2016, to about $3 billion, early December that the Taliban “Red and amounted to around 16% of the Unit” (special operations) commander country’s GDP, according to the UN in Helmand province, Mullah Shah Wali, Office on Drugs and Crime. The effort alias “Haji Nasir”, was killed in a to bomb the 400 to 500 opium coalition air strike. laboratories across Afghanistan began in late November. Wojciech Lorenz and Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski, Military Dimension of the New The US Air Force has ordered six more U.S. and NATO Afghanistan Strategy, Polish A-29 Super Tucano prop planes for the Institute of International Affairs, 27 December 2017 Afghan Air Force. The US had already purchased 20 A-29s to be delivered by Must Read: Marty Skovlund, The Longest 2018. The planes are made by US- War: 8 Years After My Last Deployment, I based Sierra Nevada Corp. and Brazil- Returned to Afghanistan as a Reporter. based Embraer S.A. Here’s What I Found, Task and Purpose, 20 December 2017

After 30 years of medical work in Deadly Taliban Attacks on NATO Convoy Afghanistan, the International and Police in Afghanistan, New York Times, Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) 17 December 2017 announced in October that it was Hunting Taliban and Islamic State Fighters, drastically reducing its presence in the From 20,000 Feet, New York Times, 11 country after a series of attacks on its December 2017 staff. The ICRC said that the violence was simply too high to continue to U.S. Bombing of Afghan Drug Labs Won't Crush the Taliban, International Crisis operate in some provinces. Group Commentary, 11 December 2017

Russia is allegedly funding Taliban NATO Special Operations Command: military operations against NATO in Taliban “Red Unit” Commander Killed in Air Afghanistan through a covert Strike, The Aviationist, 7 December 2017 programme of laundered fuel sales, according to The Times. The chairman

NATO: Upgrading Afghan Army Base, Not Taliban attacks kill at least 69 across Building New One, Voice of America, 6 Afghanistan, Reuters, 16 October 2017 December 2017 Russia funds Taliban in war against Nato Top al-Qaeda leader reported killed in forces, The Times, 16 October 2017 Afghanistan in U.S.-Afghan operation, Red Cross Reduces Presence in Afghanistan Washington Post, 5 December 2017 After Staff Is Attacked, New York Times, 9 Victory or failure in Afghanistan: 2018 will October 2017 be the deciding year, US News, 27 Afghan Army and Special Forces a new November 2017 batch of weapons and ammunition, The U.S. begins bombing Taliban drug labs Khaama Press, 9 October 2017 as Trump’s Afghanistan strategy takes US wants NATO to send in 1,000 more hold, Washington Post, 20 November 2017 troops, Tolo News, 7 October 2017 Must Read: Judy Asks: Is NATO Stuck in Mattis Discloses Part of Afghanistan Battle Afghanistan?, Carnegie Europe, 15 Plan, but It Hasn’t Yet Been Carried Out, November 2017 New York Times, 6 October 2017 Must Read: Alfred McCoy, Into the Afghan Trump wants 1,000 soldiers from NATO Abyss (Again): How a Failed Drug War Will allies for Afghanistan, Politico, 5 October Defeat Trump’s Afghan Adventure, 2017 TomDispatch, 12 November 2017 The Pentagon has a new acronym for Bahrami Reports On NATO Meeting, Says Afghanistan. Can it win the war? Defense Insurgent Attacks Up By 13%, Tolo News, 12 News, 3 October 2017 November 2017

NATO Plus-Up Will Give Afghan Forces an Kosovo Offensive Boost, Nicholson Says, US Department of Defense News Release, 11 North Atlantic Council visits KFOR, November 2017 confirming NATO’s commitment to Kosovo, NATO News Release, 27 October NATO to agree to send more troops to 2017 Afghanistan, Reuters, 7 November 2017 Must Read: Alicja Stańco-Wawrzyńska, U.S., Afghanistan Investigating Reports Of Book Review, Media Lies and the Conquest Civilian Casualties In Kunduz, Radio Free of Kosovo: NATO’s Prototype for the Next Europe/ Radio Liberty, 5 November 2017 Wars of Globalization, by Michel Collon,

NATO backs intra-Afghan dialogue, timely Terrorism and Political Violence, 29:6, elections, Pajhwok, 3 November 2017 2017, pp. 1159-1160

Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Libya Reconstruction, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, 30 October 2017 NATO helped destroy Libya -- Now slave auctions thrive, Black Star News, 26 Afghan War Data, Once Public, Is Censored November 2017 in U.S. Military Report, New York Times, 30 October 2017

Afghan Taliban Awash in Heroin Cash, a Responsibility to Protect

Troubling Turn for War, New York Times, Abstract: One of the most challenging 29 October 2017 issues concerning the doctrine of the Violence is so bad in parts of Afghanistan Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is ‘who that Red Cross clinics are shutting their should intervene’ in case of gross doors, Washington Post, 26 October 2017 violations of human rights. After the

Afghan Air Force to Get More A-29 Super intervention in Kosovo in 1999, NATO Tucanos, DodBuzz, 26 October 2017 has been increasingly considered a legitimate actor to fulfil the duty to Top NATO general says he hasn't seen evidence of Russia arming Taliban, The Hill, intervene for humanitarian reasons. In 25 October 2017 2011, the first military intervention inspired by the R2P in Libya reinforced the appreciation of NATO as a viable

32 enforcer of the doctrine. This paper activities. US soldiers among NATO problematizes the idea that NATO contingents in the Baltic states could be a straightforward solution to reported that their mobile phones were the problem of who should intervene. compromised and that hackers were NATO’s constitutive nature comprises trying to geolocate them. Western aspects that are at odds with R2P as a military officials said the equipment normative scheme. In this regard, the involved in the hacks, including drones paper delves into three aspects: (a) the armed with surveillance electronics, controversial issue of ‘delegated indicated state-level coordination. authority’ from the UN to NATO; (b) the tension between the universalistic The NATO-Russia Council met in character of the R2P and the October for the third time in 2017, but particularistic nature of NATO and (c) despite “frank and open discussions” the military nature of the alliance and failed to bridge key differences on its consequent focus on several important issues, including security/military considerations that Ukraine, Afghanistan, and transparency rarely, or just occasionally, match with and risk reduction. humanitarian From NATO’s security concerns. Finally, posters collection – the paper analyses credit: NATO the intervention in Libya assessing the NATO Secretary General expects incongruities increased dialogue between NATO’s with Russia in 2018, military operations Brussels Times, 29 and the normative December 2017 framework of R2P. NATO official: Catalina Devanda, Russian submarine Shantha Rau Barriga, activity highest 'since Gerard Quinn and the cold war', The Janet E. Lord, Hill, 23 December 2017 Protecting civilians with disabilities in Russia Has a Missile conflicts, NATO to Kill NATO Tanks If Review, 1 December War Ever Comes, 2017 National Interest, 23

December 2017 Andrea Carati, Responsibility to Russian submarines protect, NATO and are prowling around the problem of who should intervene: vital undersea cables. It’s making NATO reassessing the intervention in Libya, nervous, Washington Post, 22 December Global Change, Peace & Security, 29:3, 2017 2017, pp. 293-309 NATO tripled military presence on Russia's Rosa Shindler, An analysis of the success of borders in just 5 years – Moscow, RT, 22 the Responsibility to Protect in the Libyan December 2017 crisis, Academic Paper, Nov 2017 Russia could cut off internet to Nato countries, British military chief warns, Msn.com, 14 December 2017 Russia-NATO relations Steven Keil and Martin Michelot, Drawing In October, Western officials said that Red Lines in Gray Areas: Deterring Russia’s Russia carried out a campaign to target Challenge to Transatlantic Security Today, NATO soldiers’ smartphones to obtain German Marshall Fund, Security and operational information about NATO Defense Policy Paper No. 36, November 2017

Can Kasapoglu, Russian Forward Military U.S. Military Sends Troops to Russian Basing in Armenia and Moscow’s Influence Border, Officials Say They Want ‘Peace, Not in the South Caucasus, NATO Defense War’ With Russia, Newsweek, 12 October College, Research Paper No.143, November 2017 2017 Russia mulls boosting missile capabilities Ian Anthony, European Security after the on NATO border, Deutsche Welle, 12 INF Treaty, Survival, 59:6, 2017, pp.61-76. October 2017

Petar Kurečić, The “New Cold Warriors” Improve NATO Radios, Intel-Sharing to and the “Pragmatics”: The Differences in Meet Russian Threat: General, Military.com, Foreign Policy Attitudes towards Russia and 11 October 2017 the Eastern Partnership States among the Bryan Frederick, Matthew Povlock, Stephen NATO Member States from Central and Watts, Miranda Priebe and Edward Geist, South-Eastern Europe, Croatian Assessing Russian Reactions to U.S. and International Relations Review – CIRR XXIII NATO Posture Enhancements, RAND (80) 2017, pp.61-96 – This paper argues Research Report 2017 that due to the difference in stances towards Russia, the “New Cold Warriors” NATO, Latvia Claim More Russian Cyber- (Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Attacks, Transitions Online, 6 October Romania) and the “Pragmatics” (Hungary, 2017

Slovakia, Slovenia and Bulgaria), will Russia is hacking and harassing NATO maintain a mostly common course towards soldiers, report says, Deutsche Welle, 6 Russia and the Eastern Partnership states October 2017 Marek Menkiszak, The Russian Challenge: Łukasz Wenerski, New Hope? Russian youth Its nature and the right response to it, between protest and conformity, German Federal Academy for Security Bertelsmann Stiftung, Policy Brief 09/2017 Policy, Security Policy Working Paper, No. 27/2017 Alexander Yakovenko, Road to nowhere: NATO increased military presence in Andrew Radin, How NATO Could Europe, RT, 5 October 2017 Accidentally Trigger a War with Russia, The National Interest, 11 November 2017 Abstract: The nature of the Russian military Russian defense minister raises concern threat to Western interests needs to be about NATO buildup, Washington Post, 10 reassessed. An examination of articles in November 2017 Russian military journals shows that its

Jyri Raitasalo, Why NATO Isn't Ready to senior ranks now see ‘asymmetric means Take on Russia, The National Interest, 5 and methods’ as their new ‘main emphasis’ November 2017 in modern peer state wars. Rod Thornton explains that for them, winning such wars 'Fundamental Differences' Remain After through asymmetric means has become a NATO-Russia Council Meeting, Radio Free key way to impose Moscow’s will on other Europe, Radio Liberty, 26 October 2017 states. Remarkably, they seek to avoid the use of military violence Press point by the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following the meeting of Must Read: Rod Thornton, The Russian the NATO-Russia Council, NATO, 26 Military’s New ‘Main Emphasis’, The RUSI October 2017 Journal, 162:4, 18-28, published online 5 October 2017 Russia says U.S. Drones are Spying on its Bridge to Annexed Crimea, Newsweek, 24 October 2017 Troops in Europe are jumping in lakes and wrapping their phones in condoms to Judy Dempsey, NATO’s Eastern Flank and thwart Russian hackers, Business Insider, 5 Its Future Relationship with Russia, October 2017 Carnegie Europe, October 2017 Russia Targets NATO Soldier Smartphones, Dave Majumdar, Why Europe's Greatest Western Officials Say, Wall Street Journal, 4 Risk for War Is in the Baltics, Scout.com, 19 October 2017 October 2017

Secretary From NATO’s security General posters collection – credit: NATO On the 12 December 2017, Technology

NATO extended The technology Secretary General company Indra has Jens Stoltenberg’s been developing a tenure for two system, known as more years, setting InShield, for him up to be its protecting aircraft longest-serving from infrared- civilian leader since guided missiles the end of the Cold fired by War. manportable air-

North Atlantic defence systems. In Council statement on October, the the extension of the company Secretary General’s announced that mandate, NATO Press InShield had passed Release, 12 its NATO trials. December 2017

NATO prolongs chief Charlie Gao, NATO Is Stoltenberg’s term Building a 'Silver for 2 more years, Bullet' to Destroy Washington Post, 12 Russia's New Tanks, Scout.com, 20 October 2017 February 2017 Indra InShield passes NATO test, IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, 5 October 2017 Strategic Concept

General (Ret.d) John Allen, General (Ret.d) Philip Breedlove, Julian Lindley-French, and Transparency, Accountability and Admiral (Ret.d) George Zambellas, Future Good Governance

War NATO? From Hybrid War to Hyper War via Cyber War, Supporting Paper of the The cynical nature of our times and GLOBSEC NATO Adaptation Initiative, 2017 politics makes it easy to criticize an - If a war was to break out tomorrow, how organization like NATO, whose day-to- would NATO really fare? There are two day work does not translate readily to scenarios: the alliance is defeated because the masses…. it did not prepare for future war; or it prevails because it adapted. This paper At its core, NATO is a culture of argues that NATO needs a new Future War intensive, banal cooperation. It is a Strategic Concept if the Alliance and its swanky headquarters building with nations are to maintain credible deterrence Euro-looking conference rooms and and defence in the twenty-first century passable coffee where mundane Next NATO summit to shy away from new meeting after mundane meeting takes strategic concept, say officials, Jane’s place on logistics, standardization, and Defence Weekly, 14 December 2017 capability development.

Must Read: Christopher Skaluba, In Praise Summits of NATO’s Dysfunctional, Bureaucratic

NATO’s next Summit: 11-12 July 2018 Tedium, War on The Rocks, 7 November 2017 in Brussels

NATO Secretary General announces dates for 2018 Brussels Summit, NATO Press Release, 20 October 2017

Women, Peace and Security Jens Stoltenberg and Angelina Jolie, Why Nato must defend women's rights, The NATO and partners in the Euro-Atlantic Guardian, 10 December 2017 Partnership Council (EAPC) are committed to removing barriers for NATO Deputy Secretary General stresses the importance of Women, Peace and women’s participation in peace and Security, NATO News Release, 5 December security matters, and in 2007 adopted 2017 a specific policy to support implementation of UNSCR 1325. At the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg 2014 Wales Summit, it was announces appointment of new Special Representative for Women, Peace and acknowledged that the integration of Security, News Release, 22 November 2017 gender perspectives throughout NATO’s core tasks would contribute to NATO participates in UN Security Council a more modern, ready and responsive debates on Women, Peace and Security and NATO. The NATO Secretary General has Children in Armed Conflict, NATO News, 31 October 2017 appointed a Special Representative to serve as the high-level focal point on all Must Read: Sine Vorland Holen and Lotte aspects of NATO’s contributions to the Vermeij, Combating Conflict-Related Women, Peace and Security agenda. Sexual Violence, NATO Review, 26 October 2017

In November, Clare Hutchinson of NATO Deputy Secretary General discusses Canada was appointed as NATO’s new women’s rights with Afghan First Lady, Special Representative for Women, NATO News Release, 11 October 2017

Peace and Security. Civil Society Advisory Panel on Women,

NATO Annual Report on Gender Peace and Security holds second annual Perspectives in Allied Armed Forces: meeting, NATO News Release, 2 October progress made in pre-deployment training 2017 and work-life balance, NATO News Release, 15 December 2017

======

Bulgarian Defence Ministry: Permanent Security News from NATO Naval Presence in Black Sea Is Not NATO Member States: Planned, BTA, 11 October 2017

Albania Canada

NATO Allies and partners help Albania cope In October, Canadian Special Forces with flood disaster, NATO News Release, 7 December 2017 halted their ‘advise-and-assist’ cooperation with Iraqi and Kurdish troops Albania completes destruction of pre-NATO under Operation Impact, the US-led ammunition, Fox News, 10 November 2017 multinational coalition against the

Islamic State. Canada had been Bulgaria providing this support for the last three years. Neither is Canada currently Chairman of the Military Committee planning to send military personnel to commends Bulgaria for being a reliable the NATO Resolute Support mission in Ally, NATO News Release, 4 December Afghanistan. 2017

Gen. Petr Pavel Praises Bulgaria's In December, Canada opened the door Contribution to NATO, BTA, 1 December to future small arms exports to Ukraine 2017 by adding the country to its arms sales ‘whitelist’

Ottawa opens doors for Canadian arms France exports to Ukraine, The Star, 13 December 2017 In October, the lower house of the French Parliament passed a sweeping Canada scraps plan to buy Boeing fighters counterterrorism law that would make amid trade dispute: sources, Reuters, 5 December 2017 permanent some of the emergency measures put in place after the 2015 Yan Cimon, Perspectives for the terror attacks. French President development of key industrial capabilities Emmanuel Macron advanced the law to for Canada’s defence sector, Defense & codify expanded police powers to Security Analysis, 33:4, 2017, pp. 333-346 investigate and prosecute suspects that Canada Should Be Vigilant About Russian the president argued were necessary to Cyberwarfare, NATO Head Warns, lift the state of emergency imposed in Huffington Post, 19 November 2017 2015. Critics say the measures lack NATO Secretary General accepts Halifax judicial oversight. Builder Award, hails transatlantic bond, NATO News Release, 18 November 2017 Also in October, it was reported that the French military killed 15 Islamic Head of NATO tells Canada to gear itself up for Russian cyber threats, CBC, 18 militants in Mali near the Niger border November 2017 using a combination of Mirage aircraft, attack helicopters and troops on the NATO head praises Canada's support for ground. France has around 4,000 peace missions, The Star, 17 November troops in the region as part of 2017 Operation Barkhane, where they work As Canada rejects NATO's invite, alongside 10,000 UN peacekeepers in Afghanistan slips further into chaos, CBC Mali. News, 3 November 2017

Canadian special forces freeze training and In November, French parliamentarians assist program in Iraq, Ottawa Citizen, 27 approved an increase of nearly two October 2017 billion euros in defence spending in 2018, reversing cuts to the 2017 Canada suspends military aid to Iraqi, Kurdish forces amid outbreak of hostilities, budget that triggered a major The Star, 27 October 2017 disagreement between President Emmanuel Macron and a top general. Scott Taylor, Canada may have to answer The 1.8 billion euros in additional for its role in Libya, Herald, 22 October spending approved by the National 2017 Assembly takes the defence budget to 32.4 billion euros, or 1.82 percent of Czech Republic GDP.

The Next NATO Ally Russia Is Trying to Several analysts suggested that France Disrupt, Daily Beast, 1 December 2017 is committed to taking on more responsibility for the defence of Europe without alienating or competing with Estonia NATO. Chairman of NATO Military Committee visits Estonia affirming NATO’s NATO Secretary General discusses commitment to collective defence, NATO Alliance’s continued adaptation with News Release, 20 December 2017 President Macron, NATO News Release, 19 December 2017 NATO Secretary General praises Estonia’s strong commitment to NATO, NATO News Félix Arteaga, The Strategic Review of Release, 23 November 2017 French National Defence and Security in 2017, Real Instituto Elcano, 12 December Marina Kaljurand, Neighbors and 2017 Principles: Estonia and Russia, Moscow Times, 20 October 2017

Two years after Bataclan, France ponders Italy how to fight terrorism, The Economist, 9 November 2017 New ammunition agreement strengthens NATO partnership, DVIDS, 3 October 2017 France hikes defence spending, inches towards NATO goal, Expatica, 8 November 2017 Latvia

Islamist militants 'taken out of action' in In November, it was announced that Mali: French military, Reuters, 26 October Latvia will become one of the few NATO 2017 member states that spends 2% of GDP Tomáš Valášek, Macron, the Atlanticist, on defence after implementation of the Carnegie Europe, 5 October 2017 2018 defence budget. Defence

French Parliament Advances a Sweeping spending will reach EUR 576.34 million Counterterrorism Bill, New York Times, 3 or EUR 126.8 million more compared to October 2017 the previous year.

Secretary General discusses Baltic security Germany with Latvian President, NATO News Release, 24 November 2017

Germany has been in political limbo Latvia to become one of few NATO member since elections in September, which states spending 2% of GDP on defense, saw heavy losses for the centrist 'grand Latvia Information Agency, 23 November coalition'. A new government has yet to 2017 be formed. Latvia to increase number of soldiers in Berlin is under increasing pressure NATO training operation in Afghanistan – from NATO allies, European partners Bergmanis, Latvia Information Agency, 14 November 2017 and global economic players to take greater responsibility in international Latvian diplomat says NATO deployment security. In October, a group of may have to stay for 10 years to counter German foreign-policy experts Russia, The Globe and Mail, 1 November 2017 published a manifesto titled ‘In Spite of it all, America’ that urges Germany to maintain close ties with the United Lithuania States. In October, Lithuania agree a $128 Trump policies starting to ‘crumble’ million deal to buy surface-to-air traditional U.S.-Europe ties, German foreign missile systems from the Norwegian minister warns, Washington Post, 5 defence contractor Kongsberg. The December 2017 deal follows Moscow's build-up of Evelyn Douek, Germany’s Bold Gambit to ballistic missile systems in the Russian Prevent Online Hate Crimes and Fake News enclave of Kaliningrad bordering Takes Effect, Lawfare, 31 October 2017 Lithuania to the west.

Paul Taylor, Jumping Over Its Shadow Lithuania Expects NATO to Reach Deal on Germany and the Future of European Baltic Air Shield, US News, 7 November Defence, Friends of Europe, Autumn 2017 2017

Russia's neighbor Lithuania gets missile Hungary system, ABC News, 26 October 2017

Hungary vetoes NATO-Ukraine Commission meeting, The Budapest Beacon, 28 October Montenegro 2017 On 5 June 2017, Montenegro became the 29th member of NATO.

“Extermination of nation is underway in Portugal. The delivery was part of Montenegro”, EurAsia Daily, 1 November Romania's programme to replace its 2017 – Interview with Marko Milačić, a ageing fleet of Soviet-era MiG fighter Montenegrin politician, leader of the Otpor jets with aircraft that comply with Beznadju (Resistance to Hopelessness) NATO standards. Last year, the country movement, and one of the founders of received the first nine F-16 fighter jets Movement for Military Neutrality of Montenegro from Portugal under the programme. The total cost of the squadron of F-16 jets is 628 million euro ($740 million). Netherlands Launch of the public communication NATO ill-equipped to defend members: campaign “We are NATO”. ForMin Dutch advisory council, Digital Journal, 10 Melescanu: We are truly NATO’s reliable November 2017 ally, NineO’Clock, 8 December 2017

Talks at NATO headquarters in preparation Norway of December's Foreign Affairs Ministers' meeting, Investing Romania, 24 November Norway’s defense minister: The path to the 2017 next NATO summit, Defense News, 11 December 2017 Romania takes key role as NATO prepares to face off with Russia, EuroNews, 17 October 2017

Poland Secretary General meets with Romanian

In October, Poland's President Andrzej President and Prime Minister, visits NATO Duda signed a law that will eventually troops, NATO News Release, 9 October 2017 increase the country's spending on defence to at least 2.5% of GDP, well Romania receives last three F-16 fighter jets from Portugal, SeeNews, 6 October 2017 above the 2% required by membership in NATO. It is part of an effort by ''Falcon Defence 2017'' brings Portuguese Poland's conservative government to F-16s to Romania, NATO News Release, 4 improve the nation's defences in October 2017 reaction to Russian security concerns.

Russia and NATO: Poland Talks Security at Slovakia Warsaw Forum, Hromadske, 29 November 2017 Slovakia promotes the benefits of its membership in NATO and the EU, Slovak Russia ‘ready for war,’ NATO ‘needs to be’ Spectator, 30 November 2017 too: Polish defence minister, Poland Radio, 15 November 2017 Spain Poland’s Defense Minister Answers the Question: What Does Putin Want? Observer, The showdown between the central 14 November 2017 Spanish Government and Catalonia was Poland Commits to Spend 2.5 Percent of Its the biggest political crisis in decades to GDP on Defense, US News, 24 October hit Spain. 2017 Fearing Russia, Poland boosts army by 50 Spanish authorities called for Catalan Percent, Newsweek, 24 October 2017 police officials and politicians to testify

Jerzy M. Nowak, What kind of NATO do we in a sedition investigation following need? A Polish view, ELF, 4 October 2017 Catalonia’s chaotic independence referendum on 1 October. The vote had been declared illegal on 6 September Romania 2017 and suspended by the

In October, Romania received the last Constitutional Court of Spain. After the three US-made F-16 fighter jets from vote, Spain’s National Court ordered the head of Catalonia’s police force and

39 two separatist leaders to give testimony trying to establish a de-escalation zone about attempts to prevent the arrest of in Syria's Idlib province by reaching organizers of the referendum. In a rare deals with moderate rebel groups who address to the nation, King Felipe VI of were thought to be more amenable to Spain denounced the government of reconciliation than the al-Qaeda Catalonia as acting “totally outside the affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), law and democracy”. which runs the province. Reuters reported that Turkey was carrying out On October 26, the region declared "intelligence operations" to undermine independence and shortly afterwards popular support for HTS and the Spanish Senate voted 214-47 to considering assassinations of the invoke a provision of the Spanish group's members. The Turkish constitution that gave the government deployment aims to enforce an authority to remove the regional agreement reached between Turkey, leadership. The Spanish Government Russia and Iran in September during then dissolved the Catalonia the sixth round of Astana talks on Syria. Government and ordered new The three states agreed to create a elections. fourth de-escalation zone, or safe zone, in the province, marking Turkey’s first Catalonia’s three pro-independence such participation in Syria’s territory. parties, JuntxCat, ERC and CUP, declared victory after winning a narrow In Observatory 45 Turkey’s majority of 70 seats in the 135-seat deteriorating relations with Germany regional parliament in elections held on were outlined; similarly, the United 21 December. States’ relations with Turkey have sunk to their lowest point in over four

"Spain is a committed ally, which makes decades. In 2016 President Erdogan important contributions to our shared sought to implicate Washington in a security. The Catalonia issue is a domestic failed coup and used a post-coup matter which should be resolved within roundup of alleged enemies to jail Spain's constitutional order." about a dozen Americans, some Turks NATO Official, 27 October 2017 who work at US diplomatic missions in

NATO Says Catalonia Issue Domestic Matter Turkey, foreign nationals and more to Be Resolved by Spain, Reuters, 27 than 50,000 other Turks. October 2017 In October, the arrest of a Turkish

Sacked Catalan leader Puigdemont says citizen employed by the American accepts snap election, not seeking asylum, consulate in Istanbul heightened Reuters, 31 October 2017 tensions, leading both sides to stop

Spain Dismisses Catalonia Government issuing non-immigrant visas and to After Region Declares Independence, New curtail travel between the two York Times, 27 October 2017 countries. The New York Times in an editorial called on the Trump Spanish court opens sedition probe of administration to give serious Catalonia officials for independence bid, Washington Post, 4 October 2017 consideration to removing US nuclear weapons from Turkey. Judy Asks: Can Spain Keep Together? Carnegie Europe, 4 October 2017 – a In November, Turkey withdrew 40 selection of experts answer this question troops from a NATO military exercise in Norway after the image of the country’s

Turkey founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk was displayed as a target. NATO Secretary In October, according to Foreign General Jens Stoltenberg apologized to Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, Turkey was Turkey over the incident.

After months of conjecture, Turkish Turkey's S-400 purchase not a message to media reported in late December that NATO: official, Al Jazeera, 12 November 2017 Turkish and Russian officials have signed a financing agreement for the Stephen Kinzer, NATO is headed for a very purchase of the Russian-made S-400 messy break-up, Boston Globe, 11 anti-missile system worth $2.5 billion. November 2017

The agreement has unsettled some NATO shown how arms given to SDF end up NATO allies, who are uneasy over in PKK hands, Daily Sabah, 9 November Russian military equipment being 2017 placed in a NATO country. Alon Ben-Meir, Time to Kick Turkey Out Of NATO, Huffington Post, 8 November 2017 Turkey and Russia finalize deal on anti- missile defense system, Los Angeles Times, Turkey Launches Maneuvers East of the 29 December 2017 Mediterranean Under NATO’s Umbrella,

Asharq Al-Awsat, 8 November 2017 Turkey, Russia finalize deal on anti-missile defense system, Washington Times, 29 Drone wars: Turkey ups homegrown December 2017 options, Defense News, 3 November 2017

Ünal Çeviköz, What could Turkey, NATO Turkey's plan to acquire Russia's S-400 air- and Russia do together? Hurriyet Daily defense system may never happen, News, 28 November 2017 analysts say, CNBC, 3 November 2017

Following missile deal, NATO forced to NATO Warns Turkey of ‘Consequences’ for shrug off Turkey’s closer ties with Russia, Buying Russian S-400 Missiles, Defense US News, 27 November 2017 Tech, 27 October 2017

Kilic B. Kanat, NATO with or without Kadri Tastan, A New Crack in An Old Turkey? Daily Sabah, 26 November 2017 Alliance, German Marshal Fund, 16 October

2017 Nearly 70 pct of public believe Turkey can handle security without NATO, Daily Sabah, Daniel Pipes, Saving NATO from Turkey: 26 November 2017 Member states must break with Erdogan’s

Turkey has removed Gülenists from NATO Islamic extremism, Washington Times, 16 October 2017 posts: NATO Assistant Secretary General, Hurriyet Daily News, 26 November 2017 Ties between Turkey and America are near

NATO chief says drill incident will not breaking point, The Economist, 14 October 2017 happen again, Hurriyet Daily News, 23 November 2017 Some Urgent Questions About Turkey, New

York Times, 13 October 2017 Turkey says NATO allies reluctant to supply weapons, AA.com, 23 November 2017 Frida Ghitis, Turkey faces a fateful choice,

Washington Post, 12 October 2017 NATO chief officers should be investigated for the biggest scandal in its history, No angst over Turkey's air defense deal Deputy PM says, Daily Sabah, 20 November with Russia, says NATO chief, Reuters, 10 2017 October 2017

Turkey abandons Nato drill over portrayal Relations between Turkey and America are as the enemy, BBC News, 17 November near breaking point, The Economist, 9 2017 October 2017

NATO apologizes to Turkey over reports NATO partners adrift: USA and Turkey, Erdogan shown as foe, Washington Post, 17 Deutsche Welle, 9 October 2017 November 2017 Turkey seeks to isolate Syria Idlib jihadists Turkey withdraws 40 troops from NATO opposing truce, Reuters, 3 October 2017 drill in Norway after ‘enemy table’ scandal, Hurriyet Daily News, 17 November 2017

Barçin Yinanç, Turkey and NATO dropouts, Hurriyet Daily News, 16 November 2017

United Kingdom by the Russian navy. The vulnerability of the cables, which carry 95 percent of In October, UK Defence Secretary the world’s daily communications and Michael Fallon said he was pushing for over $10 trillion in daily transactions, an increase in defence spending to take are a “new risk to our way of life,” it further above the NATO 2% GDP according to Peach. target, as part of the ongoing National Security Capability Review. Fallon said Almost All of the UK's Surface Combatants the review would be “shorter and Are in Port While Germany Has No Working sharper” than the 2015 Strategic Subs, The Warzone, 20 December 2017

Defence and Security Review (SDSR). MS Queen Elizabeth, UK's newest and

biggest aircraft carrier, springs a leak, The Also in October, Britain’s biggest Guardian, 19 December 2017 defence contractor, BAE Systems, announced that it is to cut nearly 2,000 MoD failure to provide F-35 cost estimate is jobs (up to 1,400 at its military unacceptable, say MPs, The Guardian, 19 December 2017 aerospace business over the next three years, along with a further 375 in Britain says West must defend undersea maritime services and 150 at its cyber- cables from Russian navy, Reuters, 15 December 2017 intelligence business); MI5 Director General Andrew Parker estimated that Britons who join Islamic State should be there were over 3,000 extremists in the hunted and killed: defence minister, UK; and the Royal Navy relieved nine Reuters, 7 December 2017 sailors serving aboard a nuclear-armed Defence minister Tobias Ellwood 'prepared submarine after they tested positive for to resign if army cuts are imposed', The cocaine. Telegraph, 25 November 2017

Despite the commitment made by the British forces no longer fit for purpose, then UK Defence Secretary in October former UK service chiefs warn, The Guardian, 14 November 2017 to raise defence spending, there was disquiet in the ruling Tory party when a The indispensable ally? US, NATO and UK senior British defence minister Tobias Defence relations, UK Defence Committee, UK Parliament, 31 October 2017 Ellwood hinted in November that he might resign over a proposed 12,000- The International Relations Committee troop cut to the British army. The takes evidence on NATO engagement in the House of Commons Defence Western Balkans, and the experience of Committee was told that Britain’s British SME's operating in the region, UK Parliament, 30 October 2017 armed forces were near breaking point with the navy underfunded and an air Scrapping assault ships risks Nato role, force at the edge of its capacity. military told, The Times, 30 October 2017

In early December, Britain’s new British navy sacks nuclear submariners over cocaine use, Reuters, 28 October 2017 Defence Minister Gavin Williamson said that the remaining 270 British citizens Hayley Evans, The United Kingdom and still in Syria after joining the Islamic Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: A Summary of State should be killed, stating that Joint Doctrine Publication 0-30.2, Lawfare, 17 October 2017 “Quite simply my view is a dead terrorist can’t cause any harm to BAE Systems to cut nearly 2,000 UK jobs, Britain”. The Guardian, 10 October 2017

The UK’s Chief of Defence Staff Air UK defence secretary wants to grow budget above NATO 2% GDP target, IHS Jane’s Chief Marshal Stuart Peach warned in Defence Weekly, 4 October 2017 late December that Britain and its NATO allies must defend deep-sea cables UK defence spending should increase against potentially disastrous attacks above 2% of GDP - Michael Fallon, BBC News, 3 October 2017

United States according to an annual analysis from Brown University’s Watson Institute for Iran: In October, President Trump International and Public Affairs, combat announced that he would not certify operations and related homeland Iran’s compliance with the Joint security operations since 2001 have Comprehensive Plan of Action (JC POA) cost the United States an estimated based on his assessment that the $4.3 trillion, which will. rise to $5.6 agreement's costs outweigh its trillion in 2018. benefits. This decision in the words of the International Crisis Group, In October, the reported deaths of four “seriously, unnecessarily and recklessly US Special Forces soldiers in Niger undermines it” and resuscitate the highlighted a seemingly growing US spectre of military confrontation and counter-terrorism strategy in Africa. significantly compromises any Senator John McCain, the chairman of prospect of a diplomatic settlement of the Senate Armed Forces Committee, the far more acute and perilous North called for a new congressional Korean nuclear crisis. authorization for the use of military force for US military operations North Korea: With regard to North overseas, given the extent of such Korea, testifying before the Senate operations. Foreign Relations Committee in late October, Defense Secretary James In Niger, Washington has deployed Mattis and Secretary of State Rex around 800 soldiers, runs a drone base Tillerson said that President Trump in the capital Niamey, and is building a does not have authority to use military second in Agadez at a cost of around force in North Korea outside of an $100 million. The US Government now imminent threat. But they declined to provides logistical and intelligence define what they consider an imminent support to a 4,000-troop French threat to be. counter-terrorism operation in the Sahel region. Russia: The Pentagon is preparing to spend $14 million to restore an air base US airstrikes in Somalia and Libya in in Iceland to better accommodate its P- November killed over 100 Shabab 8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft, which militants, according to the US Africa are used to track Russian nuclear and Command. Also in November, the conventional submarines. The United Nigerien government gave the US States and Iceland have agreed to permission to fly and use armed drones increase rotations of the US to target al Qaeda, Islamic State, and surveillance planes to Iceland in 2018. Boko Haram fighters.

War on terror: In addition to strategic- The Pentagon confirmed for the first level Cold War style conflicts with Iran, time in December that “multiple ground North Korea and increasingly Russia, operations” involving US troops have the United States continues to be more taken place in Yemen, noting that the or less permanently engaged in Islamic State’s presence there has hostilities in at least seven countries— doubled. Before the announcement, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, information on counterterrorism Somalia and Syria—as part of the ‘war operations in Yemen under the Trump on terror’, although accurate numbers administration was sporadic, with the for deployed troops are difficult to administration acknowledging very few discern. The Department of Defense operations. has spent more than $1.46 trillion for direct war-related costs since 9/11, New US Army War Plan: For the first according to the latest Pentagon time in six years, the US Army has tabulation of war costs. However, published its plan for how it would fight

43 advanced enemies like Russia and change the global status quo, and China. The new document, FM 3 paints a stark picture of the world, Operations, represents a major rejecting cooperation in favour of overhaul for the service after 16 years competition. of battling relatively unsophisticated insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan, and The United States has to “rethink the places far more emphasis on cyber policies of the past two decades — operations, long-range artillery, missile policies based on the assumption that defence and on working with allies. engagement with rivals and their inclusion in international institutions Exports of drones: In October, it was and global commerce would turn them reported that the Trump administration into benign actors and trustworthy is working to relax export rules on partners,” the document says. It sensitive US drone technology to reorients US strategy toward Trump’s increase competition with rivals China “America First” doctrine while claiming and Israel in the global military drone to balance the need to work with US market. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has allies. earmarked almost $7 billion for spending on drones and related The new US National Defence Strategy technologies in its 2018 fiscal year is expected to be revealed in January, budget (90% more than the Pentagon with major reviews of the US’ nuclear predicted in 2013 it would be spending and missile defence capabilities to on such technology in 2018). follow in February. The defence strategy is updated every ten years, The revolving door: During a Senate with the last one coming in 2008 under Armed Services Committee hearing in the presidency of George W. Bush. November to vet several Trump administration nominees for top Trump's Relationship With NATO, 1 Year Pentagon jobs, Sen. John McCain said into his Presidency, NPR, 28 December 2017 he was tired of seeing defence industry executives go to work in the Pentagon. Top Marine general: 'There's a war coming', The Hill, 22 December 2017 But he indicated his support for Mark Esper, chief lobbyist for Raytheon as Pentagon confirms U.S. ground operations secretary of the Army. John C. Rood, in Yemen, NBC News, 20 December 2017 senior vice president for Lockheed Judy Dempsey, Trump’s message to Martin International was also expected Europe, Carnegie Europe, 19 December to get the position of under secretary of 2019 defence, the third highest position in the Defense Department. The Senate Danny Sjursen, America’s Wars: Yet More of More of the Same? TomDispatch, 19 had already approved former Boeing December 2017 executive Patrick Shanahan to be deputy defense secretary and Ellen Trump Delivers a Mixed Message on His Lord, the former chief executive officer National Security Approach, New York Times, 18 December 2017 of Textron Systems, to be undersecretary of defense for Must Read: Nick Turse, Donald Trump’s acquisition. First Year Sets Record for U.S. Special Ops: Elite Commandos Deployed to 149 New US National Security Strategy: Countries in 2017, TomDispatch, 14 The new US National Security Strategy December 2017 document unveiled by President Trump The U.S. Has Way Too Many Secrets, in December framed China and Russia Bloomberg, 9 December 2017 as potential competitors on the global In Return to Cold War Posture, U.S. Sending stage. The document calls Russia and Sub-Hunting Planes to Iceland, Foreign China “revisionist powers” seeking to Policy, 4 December 2017

European Reassurance Initiative: DOD Dan Gettinger, Drones in the Defense Needs to Prioritize Posture Initiatives and Budget: Navigating the Fiscal Year 2018 Plan for and Report Their Future Cost, US Budget Request, Center for the Study of the Government Accountability Office, Report Drone at Bard College, 24 October 2017 to Congressional Committee, December McCain calls for war powers debate after 2017 Niger attack, Politico, 23 October 2017 The Pentagon struggles to provide accurate Karen Greenberg, "Enemy Combatants" numbers for deployed troops, Washington Again? - Will Washington Never Learn? Post, 27 November 2017 TomDispatch, 15 October 2017 William Hartung, Massive Overkill - Brought Instances of Use of United States Armed to You by the Nuclear-Industrial Complex, Forces Abroad, 1798-2017, Barbara Salazar Tom Dispatch, 14 November 2017 Torreon Senior Research Librarian, Danny Sjursen, Congress’s Romance with Congressional Research Service, 12 Cowardice - War Without War Powers (the October 2017 Not-So-New American Way), TomDispatch, Game of Drones: U.S. poised to boost 5 November 2017 unmanned aircraft McCain Says No More exports, Reuters, 11 Defense Industry October 2017 Execs for Top DOD Arms Sales in the Posts, US News, 2 Middle East: Trends November 2017 and Analytical Terror Attack Kills 8 Perspectives for U.S. and Injures 11 in Policy, Clayton Manhattan, New York Thomas Analyst in Times, 31 October Middle Eastern 2017 Affairs, Congressional U.S. Pledges $60 Research Service, 11 Million for October 2017 Antiterrorism Force in Africa, New York Must Read: Times, 30 October America’s Forever 2017 Wars, New York

From NATO’s security Times, Editorial, 22 October 2017 posters collection – credit: NATO Army Chief of Staff: It’s ‘Forever Train Mattis, Tillerson: No And Advise,’ Not authority for military ‘Forever War’, Task action in North Korea and Purpose, 9 outside 'imminent October 2017 threat', The Hill, 30 October 2017 US Army Africa turns focus to Lake Chad Basin, increases Effort to repeal, replace president’s war exercises to deter emerging extremist powers gains traction, Stars and Stripes, 30 groups, Defense News, 9 October 2017 October 2017 William Hartung, The Scandal of Pentagon Tillerson and Mattis tell Senate panel no Spending: Your Tax Dollars Support Troops need for new war authorization, of Defense Contractor CEOs, TomDispatch, Washington Post, 30 October 2017 8 October 2017

Must Read: Nick Turse, From America With U.S. deaths in Niger highlight Africa military Love: U.S. Commandos Are a “Persistent mission creep, Reuters, 6 October 2017 Presence” on Russia’s Doorstep, TomDispatch, 27 October 2017

DoD Pushing New Missile Defenses as Existing Technologies Age, Foreign Policy, 26 October 2017

Andrew Bacevich, Autopilot Wars: Sixteen • in order to achieve a strengthened Years, But Who’s Counting? Tom’s NATO role in counter-terrorism, Dispatch, 5 October 2017 striking a new balanced Katrina vanden Heuvel, Congress’s war engagement with Russia powers must be made a reality, Washington • without sacrificing NATO´s Post, 3 October 2017 cooperative security-related ambitions across the Middle East,

“As for the U.S.: in 2016, we dropped North Africa and beyond 12,192 bombs on Syria although we are • and embarking on a mutually not officially at war with that country. beneficial partnership with the That’s more than the 12,095 bombs we European Union dropped that same year on Iraq, with GLOBSEC NATO Adaptation Initiative, One which we are no longer at war, and Alliance: The Future Tasks of the Adapted more than we have dropped on any Alliance, 27 November 2017 country since the war in Vietnam. It’s all about the unlimited license the war on NATO visionaries: Artificial intelligence has huge potential for future military capacity, terror has given the U.S. military. We Euractiv, 28 November 2017 now bomb ‘terrorists’ wherever we ‘see’ them (often among civilians), and NATO sees growing Russia, China currently not just in Syria and Iraq but challenge; higher risk of war, Reuters, 28 November 2017 also in Afghanistan, Yemen, Pakistan, Libya, and Somalia. Donald Trump, during his first six months in office, set an all-time presidential record, dropping 20,650 bombs on seven Muslim countries for reasons he did not IDEAS, FEEDBACK, explain, even as he nearly doubled the SUGGESTIONS? number of civilians being killed. And he’s just getting started”. Ideas, feedback, suggestions? We want to hear from you. Please contact us at NATO Ann Jones, TomDispatch, 5 October Watch with any news and stories for the 2017 Observatory, as well as feedback or

suggestions.

DONATE NOW PLEASE New Research Projects: NATO Watch is a small non-profit organisation GLOBSEC NATO Adaptation that provides independent oversight and analysis of an ever-growing NATO. But with Initiative (GNAI) tightly stretched resources we struggle to consistently and continually function as an The GLOBSEC NATO Adaptation effective ‘watchdog’. Initiative is a prominent policy-oriented project that seeks to positively shape If you share our vision for a transparent and accountable NATO please donate whatever you the future strength, resourcefulness can afford to help NATO Watch thrive. Click on and interoperability of the alliance. On the picture below to find out how you can make the occasion of the 50th Anniversary of a donation. the Harmel Report, the presented its recommendations for NATO adaptation, namely: • to strengthen NATO’s deterrence and defence posture • by increasing the level of NATO

military ambition – concentrating

on all NATO’s non-nuclear conventional forces