Issue 51: October 2019 Promoting a more transparent and accountable NATO www.natowatch.org NATO Watch Observatory In this edition: No. 51 (June - September NATO Watch Essay: If the United 2019) States has become a rogue state, how should NATO allies respond? News, Commentary & Reports: Published by - Arctic Security 6 NATO Watch - Arms Control & Disarmament: the Gairloch, Scotland INF Treaty 6 - Climate Change 7 IV212DS - Collective Defence 8 - Cyber Security, Information Warfare & Hybrid Threats 9 Editor: Dr. Ian Davis - Defence Budgets & Procurement 9 - Energy Security 10 Welcome to NATO Watch’s quarterly - Enlargement & Partnerships 11 Observatory: the only online publication - Australia; Bosnia Herzegovina; China- dedicated entirely to news and independent NATO relations; Colombia; EU-NATO relations; Georgia; Ireland; Israel; Japan; commentary on NATO policy-making and Moldova; Morocco, New Zealand; North operational activities. 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In 17 of the surveyed countries, people who lacked If the United States has confidence in him were also most likely to consider the United States the become a rogue state, how world’s top threat, a fact most should NATO allies respond? pronounced among traditional A panel of security and diplomatic Washington allies like Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. experts meeting in Washington in June warned that the rise of populist Similarly, an Ipsos Mori poll in June in authoritarian governments eschewing 24 countries on behalf of the Policy democratic values posed more of a Institute at Kings College London, threat to NATO than an aggressive included the United States among five Russia on its borders or an countries (the others being Iran, Israel, expansionist China. Charles Kupchan, Russia and Saudi Arabia) seen as less from the Council of Foreign Relations, likely to use their influence for good said that member states such as than they were 10 years ago. Turkey, Poland, Hungary and Italy needed to be called out by other President Trump’s willingness to alliance “members when they see … offend close US allies is well-known: backsliding” on defending democratic Denmark being the latest NATO ally on values domestically. the receiving end of a Trumpian backlash after rejecting his unsolicited It hard to argue with such sentiments, and ludicrous offer to buy Greenland. but what of the growing Of course, fissures in Atlanticism—the authoritarianism closer to home? While partnership between Europeans and the Atlantic Council panel apparently Americans—are not new. Trump’s had nothing to say about the behaviour ‘America First’ agenda, his rudeness of the Trump administration, two and arrogance are aggressive and recent global polls show that a growing dangerous, but they have precursors in number of people now include the earlier strains of American United States in a rogue’s gallery of exceptionalism. But while the countries that are perceived as likely to transatlantic partnership has overcome use their influence for illiberal ends. many hurdles in the past 50 years, the A survey released by the Pew Research words and deeds of the current Group in February 2019 found that 45% incumbent of the White House are of the people polled in 26 nations felt increasingly inimical to the interests that US power and influence posed “a and values of most of the other NATO major threat to our country”, while 36% member states. Examples of ‘rogue offered the same response on Russia, state’ behaviour can be cited in the and 35% on China. A similar poll in fields of nuclear arms control, cyber 2013 showed only 25% of global security and climate change. respondents holding a negative view of Nuclear threats the United States. In Germany, which has been on the receiving end of The unravelling of the Intermediate- President Trump’s hostile rhetoric, the Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and percentage of Germans who consider the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action the United States a greater threat than (JCPOA) primarily result from a that of China or Russia rose from 19% Washington playbook, despite attempts in 2013 to 49% in 2018. Figures for to pin responsibility on Moscow and Tehran respectively. France were similar. Only 27% of global respondents had After signalling its intention to do so confidence in Trump doing the right over 12 months ago, the United States thing in world affairs, while 70% feared finally withdrew from the INF Treaty on 3 2 August after accusing Russia of ‘Grey zone’ conflicts with Russia and violating it—a claim Moscow denies. Iran (and an 18-year war on terror) And with undue haste, on 20 August The US government has also increased Washington tested a medium-range and strengthened its cyber incursions cruise missile of the type that was into both Iran and Russia. It was previously banned under the treaty. In reported in the New York Times that US the case of the JCPOA—an agreement Cyber Command (CYBERCOM) has between seven states (China, France, established the ability to disrupt the Germany, Iran, Russia, the United operations of at least some parts of the Kingdom and the United States) and the Russian electric power grid, in response EU, signed in 2015, and often known as to ongoing efforts by the Russians to the Iran nuclear deal—the United States do the same to the United States. While withdrew from the agreement despite there is a plausible case for the International Atomic Energy Agency categorizing the CYBERCOM action as a declaring that Iran was in full countermeasure responding compliance. Hence, US withdrawal was proportionally to Russia’s activities in politically motivated, rather than an US energy systems, it also represents a evidence-based technical objection to major escalation in the ongoing cyber the agreement or its implementation. conflict between the two countries. Moreover, this highly dangerous Similarly, CYBERCOM carried out mindset of breaking these cyberattacks against an Iranian painstakingly negotiated agreements is intelligence organization believed to be coupled with an apparent return in US responsible for recent attacks on oil military thinking towards the idea of tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, and fighting and winning a nuclear war. partly as a response to the earlier Trump recently claimed he could shooting down of a US drone. The achieve victory in the almost 18-year- Trump administration came close to old Afghan War “in a week” by wiping ordering airstrikes but ultimately chose that country “off the face of the Earth” to conduct operations against Iran in and killing “10 million people”. the cyber domain—CYBERCOM’s first While not explicitly stated, this had to major, publicly known offensive actions mean the use of nuclear weapons. after being elevated to the status of a While this might be dismissed as full combatant command in May 2018. merely the ultimate form of social Iran and the United States have been media trolling—threatening nuclear engaged in intense political, economic, war online (Trump initially made similar informational and military competition threats towards Kim Jong-un and for a long time, but the reckless drift remarkably about a third of Americans towards war with Iran has gathered support the idea of preemptive war pace following Washington’s wrecking against North Korea)—in reality it is in of the JCPOA. With Iran being blamed keeping with both longstanding US by Washington hawks for every nuclear planning as well as a new misdeed in the Middle East, sometimes nuclear doctrine adopted in June. with remarkably little evidence, the last “Using nuclear weapons could create thing the region needs is another ill- conditions for decisive results and the conceived, unjustifiable and illegal restoration of strategic stability”, the armed conflict. joint chiefs’ document says. In addition, the so-called ‘war on terror’ “Specifically, the use of a nuclear is now 18 years old and retired US Army weapon will fundamentally change the major and former history instructor at scope of a battle and create conditions West Point, Danny Sjursen, provides a that affect how commanders will first-hand account of the myriad ways prevail in conflict”. that this has gone pear-shaped, not 4 least in increasing resentment and Crawford suggests that a reduction of terrorist threats against the West. fossil fuel use by the military would have "enormous positive implications Climate change denial and more for the climate”, save huge amounts of President Trump is also part of a money, help prevent climate change- rogue’s gallery of political leaders who related threats, and reduce the need for reject the very idea of human-induced US military forces to be in the Middle climate change.