Issue 51: October 2019

Promoting a more transparent and accountable NATO

www.natowatch.org NATO Watch Observatory In this edition: No. 51 (June - September NATO Watch Essay: If the United 2019) States has become a rogue state, how should NATO allies respond?

News, Commentary & Reports: Published by - Arctic Security 6 NATO Watch - Arms Control & Disarmament: the Gairloch, Scotland INF Treaty 6 - Climate Change 7 IV212DS - Collective Defence 8

- Cyber Security, Information Warfare & Hybrid Threats 9 Editor: Dr. Ian Davis - Defence Budgets & Procurement 9 - Energy Security 10 Welcome to NATO Watch’s quarterly - Enlargement & Partnerships 11 Observatory: the only online publication - Australia; Bosnia Herzegovina; China- dedicated entirely to news and independent NATO relations; Colombia; EU-NATO relations; Georgia; Ireland; Israel; Japan; commentary on NATO policy-making and Moldova; Morocco, New Zealand; North operational activities. The clips are drawn Macedonia; Pakistan; Policy; Serbia; from a wide range of subscriptions, feeds Sweden; UAE; Ukraine and alerts covering a substantial part of the - History 16 major English language newspapers and - Intelligence 17 other periodicals worldwide. - Iran 17 - Maritime Security 17 NATO Watch - Military Exercises 18 conducts independent monitoring and - Missile Defence 19 analysis of NATO and aims to increase - NATO @ 70 19 transparency, stimulate parliamentary - NATO Defence Ministers Meeting 19 engagement and broaden public awareness - NATO Military Committee – new and participation in a progressive reform Military Strategy 20 agenda within NATO. - NATO Parliamentary Assembly 21 - NATO Summit 21 - Nuclear Weapons 21 - Operations and Missions 22 - Afghanistan; Iraq; Kosovo - President Trump and the Transatlantic Bond 25 - Russia-NATO Relations 26 - Special Forces 26 - Space Policy 27 - Women, Peace and Security 28 Security News from NATO

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NATO Watch Essay: he would not. In 17 of the surveyed countries, people who lacked If the United States has confidence in him were also most likely to consider the United States the become a rogue state, how world’s top threat, a fact most should NATO allies respond? pronounced among traditional

A panel of security and diplomatic Washington allies like Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. experts meeting in Washington in June warned that the rise of populist Similarly, an Ipsos Mori poll in June in authoritarian governments eschewing 24 countries on behalf of the Policy democratic values posed more of a Institute at Kings College London, threat to NATO than an aggressive included the United States among five Russia on its borders or an countries (the others being Iran, Israel, expansionist China. Charles Kupchan, Russia and Saudi Arabia) seen as less from the Council of Foreign Relations, likely to use their influence for good said that member states such as than they were 10 years ago. Turkey, Poland, Hungary and Italy needed to be called out by other President Trump’s willingness to alliance “members when they see … offend close US allies is well-known: backsliding” on defending democratic Denmark being the latest NATO ally on values domestically. the receiving end of a Trumpian backlash after rejecting his unsolicited It hard to argue with such sentiments, and ludicrous offer to buy Greenland. but what of the growing Of course, fissures in Atlanticism—the authoritarianism closer to home? While partnership between Europeans and the Atlantic Council panel apparently Americans—are not new. Trump’s had nothing to say about the behaviour ‘America First’ agenda, his rudeness of the Trump administration, two and arrogance are aggressive and recent global polls show that a growing dangerous, but they have precursors in number of people now include the earlier strains of American United States in a rogue’s gallery of exceptionalism. But while the countries that are perceived as likely to transatlantic partnership has overcome use their influence for illiberal ends. many hurdles in the past 50 years, the

A survey released by the Pew Research words and deeds of the current Group in February 2019 found that 45% incumbent of the White House are of the people polled in 26 nations felt increasingly inimical to the interests that US power and influence posed “a and values of most of the other NATO major threat to our country”, while 36% member states. Examples of ‘rogue offered the same response on Russia, state’ behaviour can be cited in the and 35% on China. A similar poll in fields of nuclear arms control, cyber 2013 showed only 25% of global security and climate change. respondents holding a negative view of Nuclear threats the United States. In Germany, which has been on the receiving end of The unravelling of the Intermediate- President Trump’s hostile rhetoric, the Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and percentage of Germans who consider the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action the United States a greater threat than (JCPOA) primarily result from a that of China or Russia rose from 19% Washington playbook, despite attempts in 2013 to 49% in 2018. Figures for to pin responsibility on Moscow and Tehran respectively. France were similar.

Only 27% of global respondents had After signalling its intention to do so confidence in Trump doing the right over 12 months ago, the United States thing in world affairs, while 70% feared finally withdrew from the INF Treaty on

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2 August after accusing Russia of ‘Grey zone’ conflicts with Russia and violating it—a claim Moscow denies. Iran (and an 18-year war on terror) And with undue haste, on 20 August The US government has also increased Washington tested a medium-range and strengthened its cyber incursions cruise missile of the type that was into both Iran and Russia. It was previously banned under the treaty. In reported in the New York Times that US the case of the JCPOA—an agreement Cyber Command (CYBERCOM) has between seven states (China, France, established the ability to disrupt the Germany, Iran, Russia, the United operations of at least some parts of the Kingdom and the United States) and the Russian electric power grid, in response EU, signed in 2015, and often known as to ongoing efforts by the Russians to the Iran nuclear deal—the United States do the same to the United States. While withdrew from the agreement despite there is a plausible case for the International Atomic Energy Agency categorizing the CYBERCOM action as a declaring that Iran was in full countermeasure responding compliance. Hence, US withdrawal was proportionally to Russia’s activities in politically motivated, rather than an US energy systems, it also represents a evidence-based technical objection to major escalation in the ongoing cyber the agreement or its implementation. conflict between the two countries.

Moreover, this highly dangerous Similarly, CYBERCOM carried out mindset of breaking these cyberattacks against an Iranian painstakingly negotiated agreements is intelligence organization believed to be coupled with an apparent return in US responsible for recent attacks on oil military thinking towards the idea of tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, and fighting and winning a nuclear war. partly as a response to the earlier Trump recently claimed he could shooting down of a US drone. The achieve victory in the almost 18-year- Trump administration came close to old Afghan War “in a week” by wiping ordering airstrikes but ultimately chose that country “off the face of the Earth” to conduct operations against Iran in and killing “10 million people”. the cyber domain—CYBERCOM’s first

While not explicitly stated, this had to major, publicly known offensive actions mean the use of nuclear weapons. after being elevated to the status of a While this might be dismissed as full combatant command in May 2018. merely the ultimate form of social Iran and the United States have been media trolling—threatening nuclear engaged in intense political, economic, war online (Trump initially made similar informational and military competition threats towards Kim Jong-un and for a long time, but the reckless drift remarkably about a third of Americans towards war with Iran has gathered support the idea of preemptive war pace following Washington’s wrecking against North Korea)—in reality it is in of the JCPOA. With Iran being blamed keeping with both longstanding US by Washington hawks for every nuclear planning as well as a new misdeed in the Middle East, sometimes nuclear doctrine adopted in June. with remarkably little evidence, the last

“Using nuclear weapons could create thing the region needs is another ill- conditions for decisive results and the conceived, unjustifiable and illegal restoration of strategic stability”, the armed conflict. joint chiefs’ document says. In addition, the so-called ‘war on terror’ “Specifically, the use of a nuclear is now 18 years old and retired US Army weapon will fundamentally change the major and former history instructor at scope of a battle and create conditions West Point, Danny Sjursen, provides a that affect how commanders will first-hand account of the myriad ways prevail in conflict”. that this has gone pear-shaped, not

4 least in increasing resentment and Crawford suggests that a reduction of terrorist threats against the West. fossil fuel use by the military would have "enormous positive implications Climate change denial and more for the climate”, save huge amounts of President Trump is also part of a money, help prevent climate change- rogue’s gallery of political leaders who related threats, and reduce the need for reject the very idea of human-induced US military forces to be in the Middle climate change. (Others can be found in East. Australia, Brazil, Poland, Russia and Saudi Arabia). Not only does he dismiss Calling out rogue state behaviour in the climate crisis—calling it a “niche” Washington issue at the recent G7 Summit—but Notwithstanding all the evidence actually contributes to its intensity above, is it still not hyperbolic to through policies that are encouraging consider the United States a rogue greater use of fossil fuels and by state? Ironically, it is the US government reversing climate change rules and that has been the most active user of regulations. the expression, applying it to at least 11 states in the past 30 years. Only In addition, the United States produces rarely has the term been applied to the more greenhouse gas emissions United States, and usually by critics of through its military operations than US foreign policy such as Noam several individual European countries. Chomsky and William Blum. In many According to the study published by ways it is an unhelpful term: a crude Brown University, since the 2001 rhetorical device for pitting ‘us’ against intervention in Afghanistan, the US ‘them’, the ‘good’ against the ‘bad’. military has emitted 1,212 million metric tons of greenhouse gasses. This The United States is clearly acting well includes 400 million tons of directly outside the accepted norms of war-related emissions in Afghanistan, international relations that have Pakistan, Iraq and Syria. In 2017, the qualified other countries as rogue last year for which data is available, the states. However, it serves little purpose Pentagon emitted 58.4 million metric to simply tar the United States with the tons of CO2 equivalent. "If it were a same brush. Instead, Washington country, it would’ve been the world’s needs to demonstrate some ability for 55th largest CO2 emitter—with national reflection and introversion in emissions larger than Portugal, its dealings with the rest of the world. Sweden, or Denmark”, said the study’s In other words, NATO allies should be author Professor Neta Crawford. encouraging the US government to analyse its own behaviour in the same One of the long-standing stated goals terms as it analyses others. of the US military has been to keep the world oil supply stable. Ironically, this It is also clear that the challenge other means that it is using huge amounts of leaders will be most focused on at the oil, in part to make sure that the supply London NATO Summit in December will of oil remains secure. Professor be the President of the United States. Crawford argues that the United States He remains the biggest obstacle to has an important public policy decision crafting policies that can foster global to make: “Do we continue to orient our peace and uphold democratic values. If foreign policy and military force the alliance and its cheerleaders in posture toward ensuring access to Washington think-tanks continue to fossil fuels? Or do we dramatically ignore this reality then there seems reduce the use of fossil fuels, including little point in holding a summit. the military's own dependency, and thus reduce the perceived need to preserve access to oil resources?".

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News, Commentary and Arms Control & Disarmament: the INF Treaty Reports: The US withdrew from the Intermediate- Arctic Security Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty on 2 August after accusing Russia of The Arctic region, or High North, violating it, a claim Moscow denies. The strategically important during the Cold United States announced in February War became less significant after the that it had started the process to end of the confrontation between withdraw from the treaty. NATO and the Warsaw Pact. However, Talks in July between NATO allies and due to both the warming climate in the the Russian government about the Arctic and the re-emergence of treaty ended without any progress geopolitical competition in the region, being made. In a statement, on 2 the Arctic is once again of growing August US Secretary of State Mike strategic importance. Climate change is Pompeo said, "Russia is solely reportedly occurring at a faster rate responsible for the treaty's demise”, than previously thought, which will and that "Russia failed to return to full have a significant impact on the Arctic and verified compliance through the and on the security of Arctic littoral destruction of its noncompliant missile states. system”.

At the Arctic Council meeting in May US The collapse of the INF Treaty could Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said “In spark a new arms race and the United its first two decades, the Arctic Council States wasted little time in testing a has had the luxury of focusing almost medium-range cruise missile (that exclusively on scientific collaboration, would have violated the treaty had it on cultural matters, on environmental still been in force) only 16 days after research…… But no longer do we have pulling out of the treaty. Moscow that luxury. We’re entering a new age accused the US of "escalating military of strategic engagement in the Arctic, tensions". complete with new threats to the Arctic and its real estate, and to all of our The INF Treaty banned all missiles with interests in that region”. a range between 500 and 5,500 kilometres. It protected the European Anna Wieslander, It’s Time for NATO to continent from those weapons, and Engage in the Arctic, Defense One, 16 also banned US Pershing cruise September 2019 missiles, which had been deployed by

Michael T. Klare, The Pompeo Doctrine: the US and Germany. Since 2014, the How to Seize the Arctic’s Resources, Now United States has accused Russia of Accessible Due to Climate Change (Just violating the treaty, and Washington Don’t Mention Those Words!), imposed sanctions intended to TomDispatch, 10 September 2019 pressure Russia into compliance.

Ekaterina Klimenko, Annika E. Nilsson and Russia denied violating the treaty but Miyase Christensen, Narratives in the accused Washington of doing so with a Russian media of conflict and cooperation missile defence system deployed in in the Arctic, SIPRI Insights on Peace and Europe. Security, No. 2019/5, August 2019 Joelien Pretorius and Tom Sauer, Is it time Michael Byers, Northern exposure: As the to ditch the NPT? Bulletin of the Atomic sea ice melts, paranoia grows, The Globe Scientists, 6 September 2019 and Mail, 4 July 2019

Marc Lanteigne, The changing shape of Arctic security, NATO Review, 28 June 2019

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Stephen Blank, After the INF: Russia’s Must Read: Daryl Kimball, NATO Secretary- Propaganda and Real Threats, Eurasia Daily General Stoltenberg's INF Response Is Monitor, Volume: 16 Issue: 120, 6 Inadequate, Arms Control Association, 15 September 2019 July 2019

Must Read: Russia Approaches a Post-INF Igor Istomin, Russia-NATO Council as the Arms Race in Europe With Caution, Stratfor, Last (Almost) Sacrament for INF Treaty, 2 September 2019 Valdai Club, 12 July 2019

INF nuclear treaty: US tests medium-range 'Time running out to save INF treaty,' says cruise missile, BBC News, 20 August 2019 NATO secretary general, Euro News, 5 July 2019 Tom Countryman and Kingston Reif, Intermediate-Range Missiles are the wrong NATO-Russia Council to discuss INF Treaty, weapon for today’s security challenges, TASS, 5 July 2019 War on the Rocks, 13 August 2019 With Treaty Set to Expire, NATO Scrambles Guillaume Lasconiarias, Are Russia and to Counter Russian Missile Threat, Defense NATO Getting Ready for a New Euromissile One, 30 June 2019 Crisis? Fair Observer, 8 August 2019 NATO weighs boosting air defenses over Nick Witney, Nothing to see here: Europe Russia missile system, PBS, 26 June 2019 and the INF treaty, ECFR Commentary, 5 Must Read: Pierce S. Corden, A not so August 2019 modest proposal: Maintain the INF, extend End of Missile Treaty Leaves a Major New START, and involve new actors in arms Vacuum in NATO Defense, New York Times, control, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 26 2 August 2019 June 2019

Douglas Barrie and Timothy Wright, NATO chief leaves options open to counter Doomsday clock chimes for INF Treaty, IISS Russia missile, Stars and Stripes, 26 June Military Balance Blog, 2 August 2019 2019

Nato and Russia trade barbs after collapse NATO chief threatens response if Russia of nuclear arms treaty, The Guardian, 2 doesn’t comply with nuclear treaty, August 2019 Defense News, 25 June 2019

NATO says ready with measured response NATO calls on Russia to destroy new to Russia missile breach, Reuters, 2 August missile, warns of response, Reuters, 25 2019 June 2019

Statement by the North Atlantic Council on NATO says it will act unless Russia destroys the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces nuclear-ready missile, CNBC, 25 June 2019 Treaty, NATO News Release, 2 August 2019 Will the nuclear threat return to Europe if US, NATO say they’re prepared for demise Russia scraps INF treaty? Euronews, 18 June of nuclear arms treaty with Russia, Stars 2019 and Stripes, 2 August 2019 Ian Anthony, Reducing Military Risk in Svetlana Savranskaya and Tom Blanton, The Europe, SIPRI Policy Paper No. 51, June INF Treaty, 1987-2019, Historic Reagan- 2019 Gorbachev arms control agreement expires Alexey Arbatov, Mad Momentum Redux? today. Declassified documents show major The Rise and Fall of Nuclear Arms Control, advances on verification, missed Survival, Vol. 61 No.3, 2019, pp. 7-38 opportunities for conventional and strategic arms cuts, National Security Ulrich Kühn, Between a rock and a hard Archive, 2 August 2019 place: Europe in a post-INF world, The Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 26, No.1-2, Nato chief calls on Russia to save INF 2019, pp.155-166. nuclear missile treaty, BBC News, 18 July 2019

Bruno Lete, Europe Has No Attractive Climate Change

Options in the Post-INF World, Defense A study published in June showed how One, 16 July 2019 the US military is the largest

7 institutional emitter of greenhouse Ulm is already home to Germany’s gasses in the world. These emissions Multinational Joint Headquarters, which come from both combat and non- plans and exercises command and combat operations. Moreover, the use control of crisis management of some of the fossil fuels the military operations for NATO, the EU and the burns to protect the supply of oil UN. In peacetime, the new Joint Support creates a thought-provoking paradox. and Enabling Command will have 160 personnel in total and is expected to be At an informal meeting of EU Defence fully staffed by 2021. During a crisis, Ministers in August, NATO Deputy the command will be able to draw on as Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller many as 600 personnel. outlined five ways in which NATO is tackling climate change: through New NATO command declared operational, strategic analysis; support for scientific NATO News Release, 17 September 2019 cooperation; enhancing energy Steven Pifer, I Just Returned from NATO's efficiency and environmental Front Lines in the Baltics (And Russia Was protection in the military; building On Everyone's Mind), National Interest, 25 resilience to natural disasters; and June 2019 capability planning. Without a NATO-wide effort, the skies along the northeastern flank could be in peril, NATO Deputy Secretary General discusses Defense News, 17 June 2019 climate change and defence in Helsinki, NATO News Release, 29 August 2019 Michael O’Hanlon, A Report from NATO's Front Lines, National Interest, 10 June 2019 Benjamin Neimark, Oliver Belcher and Patrick Bigger, US military is a bigger NATO Spearhead Force deploys to test polluter than as many as 140 countries – readiness, NATO News Release, 6 June shrinking this war machine is a must, The 2019

Conversation, 24 June 2019

Scotty Hendricks, The U.S. military emits Today … we face not only an more greenhouse gases than Sweden and increasingly militarized world, but even Denmark, The Big Think, 17 June 2019 a resumption of the nuclear arms race, as nuclear powers brazenly scrap Must Read: Neta C. Crawford, Pentagon Fuel Use, Climate Change, and the Costs of nuclear arms control and disarmament War, Watson Institute, Brown University, 12 treaties and threaten one another, as June 2019 well as non-nuclear nations, with nuclear war.

Collective Defence Perhaps it’s time to revive the demand for more thoroughgoing global A new NATO command focused on disarmament. Why not wage a peace speeding up the movement of allied race instead of an arms race―one troops and tanks around Europe bringing an end to the immense reached “initial operating capability” in dangers and vast waste of resources September. The new Joint Support and caused by massive preparations for Enabling Command based in Ulm, war? In the initial stage of this race, how Germany, the formation of which NATO about an immediate cut of 10 percent approved last year, is one of two new in every nation’s military budget, thus headquarters focused on ensuring retaining the current military balance military hardware and forces can while freeing up $182 billion for the quickly move across national borders in things that make life worth living? the event of a crisis. The other command, based in Norfolk, Va. (USA), Must Read: Lawrence Wittner, How About a will help ensure maritime lines of Peace Race Instead of an Arms Race? Counterpunch, 29 May 2019 communication between North America and Europe remain open.

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Cyber Security, Information Cyberattack Could Trigger NATO Response, Silicon, 28 August 2019 Warfare & Hybrid Threats

While NATO does not have its own Nato: Cyber-attack on one nation is attack on all, BBC News, 27 August 2019 cyber weapons, the alliance established an operations centre in August 2018 at Cyber attack on NHS would trigger full Nato its military hub in Mons, Belgium. response, says alliance's general secretary, The Telegraph, 27 August 2019 Several member states have since offered their cyber capabilities. The Nato chief: serious cyberattack could new NATO cyber operations centre trigger collective defence commitment, (CYOC) is expected to be fully staffed Prospect, 27 August 2019 by 2023 and able to mount its own Jens Stoltenberg, Nato will defend itself, cyber attacks. Although the alliance is Prospect, 27 August 2019 still grappling with ground rules for Natalia Utrero-González, Jana Hromcová doing so, it appears to be adopting a and Francisco J. Callado-Muñoz, Defence tough posture. Spending, Institutional Environment and Economic Growth: Case of NATO, Defence In June, four new member nations— and Peace Economics, Vol. 30 No.5, 2019, Bulgaria, Denmark, Norway, and pp.525-548 Romania —joined the Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence Sandor Fabian, The Russian hybrid warfare (CCDCOE), which is a NATO-accredited strategy – neither Russian nor strategy, Defense & Security Analysis, Vol. 35 No.3, international military organization that 2019, pp. 308-325 specializes in cyber defence in technology, strategy, operations and NATO seeks next-gen electronic warfare law. Founded in 2008, the organization database, Jane’s International Defence Review, 17 July 2019 now has 25 members and expects to expand further, with Japan, Croatia, Germany & Netherlands agree to create Montenegro, Slovenia and Switzerland joint ‘military’ internet as NATO eyes all in the process of joining. unified network, RT, 29 June 2019

DoD, NATO turn to collective defense NATO’s largest cyber security against cyber attacks, Federal News conference will see its 15th edition in Network, 28 June 2019 October. The NATO Communications and Information (NCI) Agency will host 4 new members for NATO cyber defense organization, Fifth Domain, 14 June 2019 the NATO Information Assurance Symposium (NIAS) in Mons, Belgium on NATO supports groundbreaking cyber 15-17 October 2019. exercise at GLOBSEC 2019 Forum, NATO News Release, 8 June 2019 U.S. Secretary of Defense urges NATO allies to block Chinese-built 5G tech, Cyber Scoop, 20 September 2019 Defence Budgets, Procurement and Burden Sharing Susan DAVIS (United States), NATO in the Cyber Age: Strenghtening Security and The burden-sharing debate that Defence, Stabilising Deterrence - Revised dominated the NATO Summit in July Draft Report, NATO Parliamentary 2018 (see NATO Watch Observatory No. Assembly, Science and Technology 48) has continued to be a key Committee, 12 September 2019 background issue in 2019. NATO and national experts to share ideas at cyber security symposium, NATO News In June NATO released its annual report Release, 3 September 2019 on defence expenditure data for member states, showing that European Gareth Corfield, NATO sharpens its cyber- lances, prepares for war games with virtual countries would average 1.58 per cent jousting tournament, The Register, 3 of gross domestic product this year on September 2019 defence (an increase from 1.53 per cent

9 in 2018, 1.48 per cent in 2017 and 1.46 4 questions on NATO’s capability per cent in 2016). Six European investments, Defense News, 16 July 2019 nations—Greece (2.24%), UK (2.13%), NATO AWACS base to trial digital tower Estonia (2.13%), Romania (2.04%), technology, Flight Global, 3 July 2019 Latvia (2.01%) and Poland (2.01%)—will NATO Nations Strive to Standardize spend at least 2 per cent on defence in Training Systems, National Defense, 1 July 2019 compared with three in 2014. In 2019 comparison, the United States tops the list at 3.42 per cent with an estimated Dario Leone, Could NATO Turn to the E-7 $752 billion in spending, while in 2014 As Its Newest Plane? National Interest, 1 July 2019 it was 3.73 percent at $654 billion. The United States accounts for more than Nato multinational munition projects two-thirds of NATO's defence attract new participants, Army Technology, 1 July 2019 expenditure of $1.04 trillion. Over the last seven years—2012 to 2018—the NATO could buy E-7 to replace E-3, Aviation alliance spent a total of around $6.6 Geek Club, 29 June 2019 trillion. NATO marks 10th anniversary of airlift fleet, NATO News Release, 28 June 2019 NATO faces significant costs if it does not act soon to choose a successor for European NATO members to boost its ageing fleet of 14 Boeing E-3A spending this year, UPI, 25 June 2019

Airborne Warning & Control System Israeli laser defense system to protect (AWACS) surveillance aircraft, often NATO tanker transport aircraft, JNS, 21 called the alliance’s “eyes in the sky”, June 2019 senior officials said in June. A $750 Eurofighter, NATO launch studies on long- million contract with Boeing Co to term evolution of fighter, Reuters, 19 June extend the life of the aircraft through 2019 2035, with $250 million more France signs a Letter of Intent with Belgium, earmarked for design, spare parts and Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands testing, is expected to be agreed before and Norway for cooperation on strategic the end of the year. The AWACS are airlift, air refuelling, NATO News Release, among the few military assets owned 18 June 2019 and operated by NATO, rather than NATO faces big bill if it does not pick individual states. They are used to AWACS successor soon: officials, Reuters, conduct missions such as air policing, 15 June 2019 support for counter-terrorism operations, evacuations, and crisis Keeping AWACS at the heart of NATO, Flight Global, 12 June 2019 response. Thomas-Durell Young, What are Pentagon suggests NATO allies pick up tab Governments in Central and Eastern Europe for shelved MILCON projects, Jane’s not Buying with their Defence Budgets? The Defence Weekly, 10 September 2019 Readiness Clue, The RUSI Journal, Vol. 164

Budget spat puts Boeing contract for No.2, 2019, pp. 36-55

AWACS upgrades at risk: sources, Reuters, 23 August 2019 Energy Security Dakota Wood, In Military Affairs, Quantity Really Does Matter, The Daily Signal, 18 According to the 2018 Brussels Summit August 2019 Declaration, energy security plays an important role in NATO’s common Operators of NATO’s surveillance plane security. A stable and reliable energy reveal what they want in its replacement, supply increases the alliance’s Defense News, 8 August 2019 resilience against political and Anthony H. Cordesman, ’Burden-sharing’ economic pressure (para 76). While and the 2 percent of GDP Solution: A Study acknowledging these issues are in Military Absurdity, CSIS, 31 July 2019 10 primarily the responsibility of national Australia, Nato renew defence agreement authorities, NATO “will continue regular with focus on Pacific region, The Straits Times, 7 August 2019 allied consultations on issues related to energy security” and “refine NATO’s NATO Secretary General signs partnership role in energy security in accordance plan, welcomes deepening cooperation with established principles and with Australia, NATO News Release, 7 guidelines, and continue to develop August 2019

NATO’s capacity to support national Australia to sign NATO partnership, AAP, 6 authorities in protecting critical August 2019 infrastructure”.

Bosnia Herzegovina

“If it happens, this war [in Iran], like the Bosnia and Herzegovina has been a wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, will cost NATO partner, through the NATO untold lives, most of them civilian. It Partnership for Peace programme, will also, like those conflicts, cost since 2006. The country was invited to trillions of dollars. Imagine if we had join the Membership Action Plan (MAP) spent those trillions of dollars not on in 2010, but it was only in 2018 that cruise missiles and up-armoured NATO Foreign Ministers agreed to Humvees, but on solar farms and accept the submission of Bosnia and offshore wind turbines. Imagine if we’d Herzegovina’s first Annual National stuck insulation in the walls of every Programme (ANP)—a precondition for building in the US, and built a robust activation of the MAP. network of electric vehicle chargers”.

Must Read: Bill Mckibben, If the world ran However, disagreements over the on sun, it wouldn’t fight over oil, The submission of the ANP has prevented Guardian, 18 September 2019 the formation of a government

following the 2018 Bosnian general NATO must not forget Central Europe's election. The main Bosniak and Croat energy needs in countering Russian parties support the ANP, but the influence, U.S. Senator says, Radio Free Bosnian Serbs do not. With no solution Europe/Radio Liberty, 17 July 2019 in sight over the vexed issue of NATO NATO tests smart energy technologies at integration, the country remains in exercise in Poland, NATO News Release, 13 political deadlock. June 2019 Jasmin Mujanovic, Bosnia Must Not Abandon its NATO Aspirations, Balkan Enlargement & Partnerships Insight, 27 August 2019

Bosnian Presidency Fails to Break NATO, Australia Govt Deadlock, Balkan Insight, 20 August NATO and Australia are strengthening 2019 relations, building on dialogue and 24 years on: former NATO spokesperson cooperation that have been developing reflects on Srebrenica massacre, Euronews, since 2005. In a joint political 11 July 2019 declaration in June 2012, NATO and Bosnia as the new 'battleground' between Australia signalled their commitment to NATO and Russia, Al Jazeera, 7 July 2019 strengthen cooperation, and since February 2013, work is being taken Disagreements over NATO blocking the formation of BiH’s government, European forward through an Individual Western Balkans, 3 June 2019 Partnership and Cooperation Programme. On the 7 August 2019, China-NATO relations Australia and NATO signed a new "enhanced partnership agreement" with NATO has maintained a dialogue with a greater focus on the Pacific region. countries that are not part of its partnership frameworks, on an ad-hoc

11 basis, since the 1990s. One such priorities and output. The European country is China. While there was no Council Conclusions of June 2018 mention of China in the 2018 Brussels called for further deepening of NATO- Summit Declaration, the 2018 US EU cooperation. And in July 2018 a new National Defense Strategy cites China Brussels Joint Declaration was signed as a strategic competitor. by the NATO Secretary General, the President of the European Council, and The Trump administration continues to the President of the European push NATO to address potential threats Commission. from China in its day-to-day work in Brussels, as part of a shift in US NATO and the EU signed a further priorities away from fighting Islamist agreement on 10 December 2018 to terrorists and towards a so-called era of cooperate in promoting good great power competition. governance in the defence and security sector. As part of this agreement, the Barry Pavel and Ian Brzezinski, It’s time for EU will contribute 2 million EUR to the a NATO-China Council, Defense One, 21 NATO Building Integrity Trust Fund for August 2019 2019-2022. James Jay Carafano, NATO's China problem, The Hill, 8 August 2019 Shane Quinn, NATO And the EU Are Closely Tied on The Most Important Issues, Eurasia NATO needs to address China's rise, says Future, 2 September 2019 Stoltenberg, Reuters, 7 August 2019

Helena Legarda and Meia Nouwens, NATO Georgia Needs a China Policy, The Diplomat, 18 July 2019 A 2008 Bucharest Summit Declaration promised eventual NATO membership As US Raises Pressure on Huawei, NATO for Georgia—a position reiterated at Steps up Assessment of Security Risks, several NATO summits since, and most Radio Free Asia, 3 July 2019 recently in July 2018. Douglas Lute, Protecting Europe from China will strengthen the future of NATO, In July, Georgia hosted a two-week Euractiv, 19 June 2019 international military exercise, Agile

China-operated ports raise security fears Spirit 2019, which involved more than for US, NATO, Asia Times, 2 June 2019 3,000 soldiers from 14 NATO members and allies, including: US, UK, Latvia, Colombia Lithuania, Poland, Norway, Belgium, Bulgaria, Greece, Montenegro, In May 2018 Colombia became the Romania, Turkey and Ukraine. latest NATO ‘partner across the globe’. NATO Secretary General’s Special Joint NATO-Colombia workshop on Representative for the Caucasus and counter-terrorism at sea, Safety at Sea, 13 June 2019 Central Asia, James Appathurai, commenting on parliamentary NATO works with Colombia on counter- elections held on 25 August in terrorism at sea, NATO News Release, 7 Georgia’s breakaway region of June 2019 Abkhazia, said that NATO does not

recognise the elections and continues EU-NATO Relations to support the sovereignty and Following the signature of the Joint territorial integrity of Georgia. Declaration on NATO-EU cooperation in Warsaw in July 2016, NATO and the EU NATO PA President Madeleine Moon have been discussing how to expand reiterates support for Georgia’s aspiration their joint work, including by bringing to NATO membership, NATO PA News Release, 18 September 2019 more coherence in their respective defence capability development 12

Former NATO Sec-Gen: Georgia should Senior NATO Official visits Israel to discuss consider joining NATO without Article 5 current and future cooperation, NATO applying to disputed regions, JAM News, 11 News Release, 5 September 2019 September 2019 Israel Navy, NATO Forces Conduct Exercise NATO Does Not Recognize "Elections" in Simulating High-casualty Earthquake, Occupied Abkhazia, Georgia Today, 26 Haaretz, 12 August 2019 August 2019 Japan Defence Minister Izoria praises Georgia- NATO relations as Agile Spirit drills close, Japan is the longest-standing of NATO’s Agenda.Ge, 9 August 2019 ‘partners across the globe’. Builiding

Agile Spirit multinational exercise kicks off on initial contacts in the early 1990s, in Georgia today, hosting 14 NATO dialogue on common security interests members, allies, Agenda.Ge, 27 July 2019 has become more regular and structured. NATO and Japan signalled Ireland their commitment to strengthen

Ireland has a longstanding policy of cooperation in a joint political military neutrality, which allows for its declaration signed in April 2013. armed forces to be used for The Chairman of the NATO Military peacekeeping and crisis management Committee commends Japan for long-term operations where there is a UN Partnership, NATO News Release, 4 June mandate, a government decision and 2019 parliamentary approval. In 1999, Ireland joined NATO’s Partnership for Moldova Peace programme and the Euro-Atlantic Moldova contributes to the NATO-led Partnership Council, a multilateral operation in Kosovo and cooperates forum for dialogue which brings with the alliance and other partner together all Allies and partner countries countries in many other areas. NATO in the Euro-Atlantic area. Ireland supports the country’s reform efforts cooperates with NATO in a variety of and especially capacity-building in the areas, including peace-support defence and security sector. operations. A political crisis in Moldova in June and Deputy Secretary General in Dublin: NATO is committed to partnership with Ireland, July had regional and transatlantic NATO News Release, 20 September 2019 implications. On the 9 June, NATO declared it was following "with concern" the developments in Moldova, and Israel called on all parties to "exercise calm

Israel has been a member of NATO’s and restraint”. The Democratic Party of Mediterranean Dialogue since it was Moldova (DPM) unexpectedly lost initiated in 1994 and is developing power when two opposition parties – closer cooperation with the alliance, the pro-Russian Socialist Party of including maritime partnerships. Most Moldova (PSM) and pro-EU bloc ACUM – recently, the Israeli navy took part in announced their surprising partnership ‘Mighty Waves 2019’ training exercise, and formed a government. The which saw NATO members including partnership’s quick recognition by the United States, UK, France, Germany, Russia, the EU, and the United States Greece, Italy, Cyprus and Canada, and led to the eventual resolution of the non-alliance member Chile, take part in crisis. naval exercises that simulated sea- NATO fully supports Moldova's neutrality, based search and rescue operations off independence, AA, 5 September 2019 the northern Israeli coast.

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Secretary General: The Republic of Moldova Skopje and Athens dates back to 1991, is a close partner to NATO, NATO News when Macedonia peacefully broke away Release, 5 September 2019 from Yugoslavia, declaring its

Secretary General: the Republic of Moldova independence under the name Republic is a close NATO partner, NATO News of Macedonia. Greece had objected to Release, 3 July 2019 the name Macedonia, saying it implied

Alina Inayeh, Moldova’s Latest Political territorial claims on the northern Greek Crisis Has Wider Implications, GMF region with the same name. Transatlantic Take, 10 June 2019 North Macedonia expects NATO Statement by the NATO Spokesperson on membership, EU talks date by year-end, the situation in the Republic of Moldova, Reuters, 15 July 2019 NATO News Release, 9 June 2019 NATO works with North Macedonia to Morocco improve disaster response, NATO News Release, 12 July 2019

In June, NATO’s Political Affairs and Stoltenberg: I hope North Macedonia Security Policy Division received a high- becomes a NATO member by December, level delegation of military officers European Western Balkans, 25 June 2019 from the Moroccan Royal Armed Forces. This was the first visit of NATO 'Ready to Welcome' North Macedonia as 30th Member, Radio Free Europe/ Radio military officers from Morocco to NATO Liberty, 3 June 2019 headquarters conducted in the framework of the alliance’s public Secretary General in North Macedonia: We diplomacy activities with Morocco. are ready to welcome you into the NATO family, NATO News Release, 3 June 2019 Moroccan Royal Armed Forces Officers visit NATO Headquarters in the framework of Pakistan

NATO-Morocco partnership, NATO News In recent years NATO and Pakistan have Release, 18 June 2019 gradually increased their practical New Zealand cooperation. Activities include annual military-to-military staff talks and NATO and New Zealand have been Pakistani military officers’ participation engaged in dialogue and cooperation in around 50 military training activities since 2001. New Zealand is one of a with NATO. In June, the NATO Secretary range of countries beyond the Euro- General and Foreign Minister of Atlantic area—often referred to as Pakistan Shah Mahmood Qureshi met at “partners across the globe”—with NATO Headquarters to discuss a range which NATO is developing relations. of issues of mutual concern, including Since 2012 work has been taken the peace-building effort in forward through an Individual Afghanistan. Partnership and Cooperation Programme. FM Shah Mehmood Qureshi briefs NATO on India-Pak tensions, Business Standard, 25 NATO Secretary General begins visit to New June 2019 Zealand, NATO News Release, 5 August NATO Secretary General and Pakistan’s 2019 Foreign Minister share views on NATO-

Pakistan partnership, regional security and North Macedonia the peace process in Afghanistan, NATO Macedonia is set to join NATO as the News Release, 24 June 2019 alliance’s 30th member after changing its name to the Republic of North Policy

Macedonia. Agreement on the name Stephen Delaney, Strategy through change was reached with Greece in Partnership Is Key to NATO’s Future, 2018. The name dispute between Geopolitical Monitor, 3 June 2019

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Serbia Ukraine

Unlike other Western Balkan partners, The election of Volodymyr Zelenskyy Serbia does not aspire to join NATO. has brought a complete newcomer to However, the country is deepening its power in Ukraine. While it remains to be political dialogue and cooperation with seen what kind of politics he will the alliance on issues of common practice, he has already appointed a interest, such as defence reforms. presidential team that includes only Dačić and Peach in favour of enhancing men. This is a missed opportunity for Serbia-NATO partnership, Western Balkans, Ukraine. Putting together a diverse 19 September 2019 governing team would have allowed

Chairman of the NATO Military Committee him to demonstrate inclusive visits Serbia, NATO News Release, 19 leadership by recognizing that the September 2019 security issues Ukraine is facing are best addressed with a diverse team Pszczel: Serbia-NATO relations are good, with different perspectives and life NATO is proud of KFOR, European Western Balkans, 21 June 2019 experiences. That would have been a new holistic approach that could have Cooperation between Serbia and NATO produced new solutions. stronger, media reports more negative, European Western Balkans, 13 June 2019 Corinna Horst and Sofia Shevchuk, Ukraine’s Security Sector—Between Sweden Western Gender Standards and Eastern Traditions, GMF Blog, 7 June 2019 NATO and Sweden actively cooperate in peace and security operations, and the It has been 25 years since Ukraine country has been a major contributor to joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace NATO-led operations and missions in programme and Since 2014, in the the Balkans and Afghanistan. Sweden wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace in cooperation has been intensified. 1994 and became a member of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council in In June, Ukraine's newly elected 1997. Sweden is one of five countries president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he that has enhanced opportunities for is ready to negotiate with Russia to end dialogue and cooperation with NATO. the war in eastern Ukraine, but he also reaffirmed his country’s course toward Deputy Secretary General welcomes NATO membership—a move strongly NATO’s strong partnership with Sweden, opposed by Moscow. Zelenskiy has NATO News, 11 September 2019 promised to hold a referendum on Petri Mäkelä, Why Russia Was Watching NATO membership. These Wargames, National Interest, 14 July 2019 According to an opinion poll conducted in May and released in July, 62 per cent UAE of Ukrainians support their country's

NATO and the UAE reinforced their accession to NATO, while 21 per cent partnership and set out their priorities are opposed. Support is greatest in the for future cooperation in Individual Western regions of the country (76%) Partnership and Cooperation and lowest in the Donbas region (37%). Programme in October 2016. According to the results of the survey, 57 per cent of Ukrainians consider UAE participates in NATO meetings in NATO membership a fundamental Brussels, Emirates 24/7, 29 June 2019 guarantee of Ukraine's security, 8 per cent believe that a military alliance with Russia and other CIS countries could be such a guarantee, and 18 per cent say

15 that only a non-aligned status can Support for Ukraine's accession to NATO provide such security guarantees. grows by 46% over seven years, UKRINFORM, 10 July 2019

In June, NATO and Ukraine signed a Despite Not Being A Member, Ukraine joint memorandum to significantly Makes Steps To Join Upcoming Nato increase sharing of intelligence Missions, Newsweek, 27 June 2019 information, and for the first time in NATO’s 70-year history, a unit from a Ukrainian special forces unit approved to serve in NATO’s response force, Foreign non-member state has been certified as Brief, 27 June 2019 a Special Operations unit. Ukraine’s 140th Special Operations Forces Centre Intelligence agencies of Ukraine and NATO now has the right to be involved in the members sign memorandum to counter Russian aggression, MenaFN, 21 June 2019 NATO Response Force—the alliance’s high readiness response units. Patrick Tucker, US Intelligence Officials and Satellite Photos Detail Russian Military In September, Kyiv and Moscow each Buildup on Crimea, Defense One, 12 June exchanged 35 prisoners, including 24 2019

Ukrainian sailors taken captive by Steven Pifer, NATO’s Ukraine challenge, Russia in November 2018, as well as a Brookings, 6 June 2019 potential suspect and key witness in the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight Ukraine's President Promises NATO Referendum as Part of Path to West, Radio MH17. It was the first prisoner Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, 5 June 2019 exchange since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine. "We NATO welcomes recent ruling by welcome that the Ukrainian sailors International Tribunal on release of Ukrainian sailors in Russia, UNIAN, 4 June seized by Russia last November are 2019 finally back home, as well as the film- maker Oleg Sentsov. This is a step in Secretary General praises Ukraine’s the right direction," Spokesperson for partnership with NATO, calls for continuing reform, NATO News Release, 4 June 2019 NATO Oana Lungescu said in a statement on 7 September. Ukrainian President Says He's Open To Peace Talks With Russia, Commits To NATO Ukraine, NATO to enhance cooperation in Membership, Radio Free Europe/ Radio tackling hybrid threats, security challenges, Liberty, 4 June 2019 UNIAN, 10 September 2019

NATO welcomes prisoner swap between History Ukraine and Russia, UNIAN, 8 September 2019 Rachel Tausendfreund (ed.), Reassessing 1989: Lessons for the Future of Democracy, Candace Rondeaux, Can Zelensky, Riding German Marshall Fund, September 2019 High, Negotiate an End to the War in Eastern Ukraine? World Politics Review, 23 Diego A. Ruiz Palmer, A Strategic Odyssey: August 2019 Constancy of Purpose and Strategy-Making in NATO, 1949-2019, NATO Defense Poll: Ukrainians divided over need for College, NDC Research Paper 3, June 2019 Ukraine to join NATO, Kyiv Post, 22 August 2019 Is the future of Nato under threat?, History Extra, 4 June 2019 - US president Donald Alya Shandra and Robert Seely, The Surkov Trump's 2017 comment that NATO is Leaks The Inner Workings of Russia’s "obsolete" caused alarm across Europe. In Hybrid War in Ukraine, RUSI Occasional this interview from the April/May 2017 Paper, July 2019 issue of BBC World Histories Magazine, Ewan Lawson, Roundtable Discussion on Chris Bowlby quizzes historians Helen Parr Disinformation in Ukraine, RUSI Conference and James J Sheehan on the purpose and Report, July 2019 objectives of this strategic alliance

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Intelligence during a visit to NATO’s Iraq Training Mission in Baghdad. Stoltenberg urged In recent years, NATO has stepped up all parties to prevent further such its efforts in Intelligence by creating an incidents, which he said pose a "serious Assistant Secretary General position threat" to regional security. and a NATO Intelligence Division to better understand the security threats. NATO concerned by attacks on Saudi oil facilities, NATO Watch News Brief, 18 Diana Stacey Correll, Why the US needs to September 2019 improve intelligence sharing on Russian military activities with NATO allies, Military Saudi oil attacks: Nato chief 'extremely Times, 11 September 2019 concerned' about escalation, BBC News, 16 September 2019

Iran SNMG1 Carries Out Maritime Express 2019, US Navy News Service, 29 August 2019

Tensions between Tehran and US seeks NATO help in anti-Iran coalition, Washington have increased since May Space War, 27 June 2019 2018, when the United States withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal (between U.S. tells NATO it wants to avoid war with Iran: diplomats, Reuters, 27 June 2019 Iran and the P5+1 group of world powers—the US, UK, France, China and U.S. defense chief tries to rally NATO allies Russia plus Germany—and the EU) and on Iran as tensions simmer, Reuters, 27 reinstated sanctions with the aim of June 2019 forcing the country to renegotiate the In NATO debut, new Pentagon chief aims to accord. 'internationalize' Iran effort, Reuters, 25 June 2019 In June, President Trump approved military retaliation for the shooting down of a US surveillance drone over Maritime Security the Strait of Hormuz but revoked the NATO’s Maritime Strategy, agreed in order at the last minute. Iran says the 2011, sets out a series of activities that aircraft violated its airspace; while the includes collective defence, crisis United States insists it was shot down management, cooperative security and over international waters. The United maritime security. States also accused Iran of being responsible for attacks on oil tankers in Around 8,600 US and European troops the region. Iran has rejected the from 18 nations took part in the annual accusation. The US is assembling a BALTOPS naval exercise in June in maritime ‘coalition of the willing’ to Germany’s Baltic Sea port of Kiel. The protect freedom of navigation through 47th BALTOPS exercise involved the strait of Hormuz. So far, NATO has maritime, air and ground forces with focused on seeking to de-escalate the about 50 ships and submarines. The conflict between Washington and exercise was used to demonstrate a Tehran. new amphibious command-and-control (C2) construct to support larger, more NATO is observing developments in the complex amphibious operations. wake of the 14 September armed drone attacks on two facilities of Saudi NATO allies unleash their drones in the Arabia’s state-owned oil company waters off Portugal, Defense News, 19 September 2019 Aramco. "Any disruption to global energy supplies is clearly of concern to Why is it important to safeguard free access NATO Allies. We are monitoring to the seas? Discover the role of a NATO developments carefully and with maritime expert, NATO News Release, 17 concern," NATO Secretary-General Jens September 2019 Stoltenberg said on 16 September,

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Jared Samuelson, Roll for Initiative: NATO’s including artillery, air defence and Navies need a Wargaming Series, War on reconnaissance. the Rocks, 12 August 2019 BALTOPS (Poland and Baltic Sea: 3-22 Dov S. Zakheim, NATO's disappearing June) - Annual US-led maritime navies invite trouble in the Baltic Sea, The exercise, which included Denmark, Hill, 23 July 2019 Estonia, France, Germany, Latvia, NATO ships exercise in the Black Sea, NATO Lithuania, Netherlands and Poland, as News Release, 19 July 2019 well as partners Finland and Sweden.

U.S. Leading NATO Maritime Group Amid SABER GUARDIAN (Bulgaria; Romania; Renewed Focus on Northern Europe, USNI Hungary: 3-24 June) - A bi-annual US News, 10 July 2019 Army Europe-led, multinational Gene Germanovich, J.D. Williams, Stacie L. exercise involving around 27,000 Pettyjohn, David A. Shlapak, Anthony Atler people. and Bradley Martin, NATO's Amphibious Forces: Command and Control of a TOBRUQ LEGACY 19 (Poland; 3-19 June) Multibrigade Alliance Task Force, Rand, - This exercise set up, trained and 2019 exercised multinational Surface-Based

‘BALTOPS 2019’ tests new amphibious Air and Missile Defence. It involved command construct for US, NATO forces, roughly 3500 personnel from 19 allies.

Jane’s Navy International, 21 June 2019 DYNAMIC MONGOOSE (Norway: 22 June

NATO navies test readiness in Baltic Sea, – 11 July) - Annual NATO exercise to NATO News Release, 8 June 2019 train submarine warfare and antisubmarine warfare for submarines, NATO Trains with Commercial Shipping in anti-submarine surface units and the Baltic Sea, Allied Maritime Command, 5 maritime patrol aircraft. June 2019 TRIDENT JACKAL (Norway; Spain: 23

Military Exercises September – 10 October) - A table-top exercise that will train, evaluate and Key NATO and allied multilateral support the certification of the NATO exercises June-Sep 2019 Rapid Deployable Corps Spain as a Joint

NOBLE JUMP 19 (NATO HQs; Poland: 24 Task Force Headquarters to plan and May- 14 June) – a table-top phase of conduct small, non-Article 5 operations tested the activation, deployment against insurgents, mainly on land and in the cyber domain. planning and readiness of the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force 19. It STEADFAST FLOW 19 (Turkey: 23-27 activated the overall NRF and forces September) - This exercise will train moving from their home stations to movement (logistics) planning staff their points of embarkation. The throughout NATO and from potential second, live portion, tested the Partnership for Peace troop deployment of elements of the VJTF contributing nations. and the role of NATO Force Integration Units. An exercise in the land, maritime NATO nations hone anti-submarine warfare and air domains, Noble Jump tested skills during Cutlass Fury 2019, Allied interoperability and command and Maritime Command News Release, 20 September 2019 control. NATO Allies wrap up exercise Engineer SUMMER SHIELD (Latvia: 2-15 June) - Thunder 2019, NATO News Release, 18 this annual multinational training September 2019 exercise led by Latvia and involving around 2500 troops tested a broad US and NATO partners use exercise to better protect waters where Russia range of combat support elements, operates, Stars and Stripes, 16 September 2019

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Lara Martinho (Portugal), NATO Exercises – Deverrick Holmes, Congress is not asking Evolution and Lessons Learned, Revised the right questions about missile defense, Draft Report, NATO Parliamentary Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 25 June Assembly, Defence And Security 2019 Committee (DSC), Sub-Committee on Future Security and Defence Capabilities (DSCFC) 137 DSCFC 19 E, 25 July 2019 NATO @ 70

Over 40 ships begin exercise Northern The occasion of NATO’s 70th birthday Coasts in the Baltic Sea, NATO News was modest: a gathering of foreign Release, 6 September 2019 ministers in Washington DC in April

Two Russian armies launch military (see NATO Watch Observatory No.50). exercise ahead of NATO maneuvers in The anniversary took place amidst Georgia, TASS, 24 July 2019 public rifts between the United States and several of the other 28 members on SNMG1 group participates in Nato exercise Dynamic Mongoose, Naval Technology, 8 security and trade issues.

July 2019 Lindsay Lloyd, NATO — Still Relevant in a NATO exercise helps Allies to operate and Dangerous World, Inside Sources, 14 innovate together, NATO News Release, 27 August 2019

June 2019 Luz Paola Garcia, NATO: 70 Years On,

MerionWest, 11 July 2019

Missile Defence

Major components of NATO missile NATO Defence Ministers Meeting: defence currently include US Navy 26-27 June destroyers fitted with the Aegis missile Key activities and decisions taken: defence system based in Rota, Spain; and a US-operated land-based system (a) Russia’s ‘violation’ of the INF Treaty in Romania and Poland known as Aegis was discussed (see section on INF Ashore. Other major components Treaty above). While continuing to urge include an early warning radar in Russia to return to compliance, NATO Turkey. NATO's air command in is preparing a response should Russia Ramstein, Germany is the responsible fail to do so. Some options were command. outlined, but the exact nature of that response was not disclosed; See Ya THAAD: Aegis Ashore Is Up and deployment of new land-based nuclear Running in Romania (And Russia Is Angry), missiles in Europe was ruled out, National Interest, 12 August 2019 however.

U.S. missile shield site in Poland taking (b) A new overarching space policy was shape, Defence Blog, 12 August 2019 approved (see section on ‘Space Policy’

NATO completes upgrade of missile below). Few details were provided and defense system in Romania, Romania the document remains classified. Insider, 12 August 2019 (c) There appeared to be no discussion

Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defence of NATO’s new Military Strategy (also system in Romania completes scheduled classified) that was approved by update, NATO News Release, 9 August NATO’s Chiefs of Defence in May 2019 (see NATO Watch Observatory No.50

Ian Williams, Adapting NATO missile and below). defense to survive enemy contact, Defense (d) The US Defense Secretary briefed News, 2 August 2019 the meeting on the conflict with Iran.

NATO Considers Missile Defense Upgrade, The Defence Ministers discussed the Risking Further Tensions With Russia, New importance of keeping the strait of York Times, 5 July 2019 Hormuz open and the need to deescalate the situation, but made no

19 commitment to act in the matter (see NATO Defence Ministers approve new ‘Iran’ section above). space policy, discuss readiness and mission in Afghanistan, NATO News (e) It was confirmed that by 2020, 30 Release, 27 June 2019 combat ships, 30 land battalions and 30 air squadrons will be ready and Russia Threats Take Center Stage at NATO available within 30 days under Defense Chiefs’ Meeting, Bloomberg, 26 June 2019 the Readiness Initiative (known as the ‘Four Thirties’). Around three-quarters NATO Defence Ministers meet in Brussels, of the forces required have already NATO News Release, 26 June 2019 been generated. NATO Ministers Gather In Brussels To (f) Full support was given to US efforts Address Security Challenges, Radio Free to achieve a political settlement Europe/ Radio Liberty, 25 June 2019 in Afghanistan and financial support Allied spending up, Russian weapons on for the Afghan security forces was agenda as Esper meets NATO defense confirmed until the end of 2024 (see ministers, Stars and Stripes, 25 June 2019

Afghanistan sub-section below). NATO Defence Ministers to address key (g) After five consecutive years of real security challenges, NATO News Release, growth in military spending, European 25 June 2019 member states and Canada will, by the end of 2020, have added a cumulative NATO Military Committee – new total of well over one hundred billion Military Strategy dollars. Total NATO military spending will reach $1.04 trillion this year (see In May the Chiefs of Defence signed-off ‘Defence Budgets’ section above). on NATO’s new Military Strategy, which (h) Seven NATO member states is not publicly available (see essay in (Belgium, France, Italy, the NATO Watch Observatory No.50). Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and The NATO Military Committee meeting Spain) and one partner nation (Finland) in Ljubljana in September, the third and agreed to cooperate to final meeting of the year, took place in acquire maritime munitions, including the aftermath of the collapse of Afghan surface-to-air and surface-to-surface peace talks. US Air Force Gen. Tod missiles, torpedoes, and gun shells. Wolters, NATO’s Supreme Allied (i) Two ongoing multinational munition Commander Europe (SACEUR), said that initiatives each incorporated two he expects increased violence in additional participants: Croatia and the Afghanistan in the lead-up to the UK (land munitions); and Italy and presidential election later this month Slovakia (air-to-ground precision (see ‘Afghanistan’ section below). The guided munitions). meeting had four key sessions:

Read NATO Watch Briefing No.68 to (a) NATO operations, missions and find out more. activities, with a focus on Afghanistan; (b) Deterrence and defence of the Euro- Esper Reassures NATO Allies of American Atlantic area and NATO’s “warfighting Constancy, US Department of Defense, 27 capstone concept”; June 2019 (c) Military Instrument of Power; and Remarks by Acting Secretary Esper in a Press Conference at NATO HQ, Brussels, (d) A plenary session. Belgium, US Department of Defense, 27 June 2019 Read NATO Watch Briefing No.69 to find out more. Allies cooperate on acquiring maritime munitions through new multinational NATO Chiefs Look to Alliance's Future, US framework, NATO News Release, 27 June Department of Defense, 17 September 2019 2019

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NATO Chiefs Support Afghanistan Resolute arrangements” are fully consistent with Support Mission, Look to Future, US the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty Department of Defense, 14 September (NPT), while rejecting the 2017 Treaty 2019 on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons NATO Defense Chiefs Look to Build on 70 (TPNW) as being “inconsistent with the Years of Peace, US Department of Defense, alliance’s nuclear deterrence policy”. 14 September 2019 Both questionable claims.

Allied Chiefs of Defence - NATO remains a pillar of stability in an uncertain world, In June, the US Joint Chiefs of Staff NATO News Release, 14 September 2019 briefly published and then removed from public access a new edition of NATO Commander Expects Violence, to their official doctrine on the use of Work for Safe Afghan Elections, VoA, 13 nuclear weapons. But a public copy was September 2019 preserved by the Federation of Lieutenant General Hans-Werner Wiermann, American Scientists. The document Director General of the NATO International includes the following Strangelovian Military Staff, starts his tenure, NATO News passage: "Using nuclear weapons could Release, 15 July 2019 create conditions for decisive results and the restoration of strategic NATO Parliamentary Assembly stability. Specifically, the use of a nuclear weapon will fundamentally The 2019 annual session of the NATO change the scope of a battle and create Parliamentary Assembly will take place conditions that affect how commanders in London from 11-14 October, hosted will prevail in conflict". by the UK Parliament. A draft report, ‘A new era for nuclear Summary of the Meeting of the Science and deterrence? Modernisation, arms Technology Committee, 1 June 2019, control and allied nuclear forces’, Bratislava, Slovakia, 128 STC 19 E, 13 June published online in April—and 2019 subsequently deleted—written by the Support for the Alliance remains as strong rapporteur of a committee of the NATO as ever, NATO Parliamentarians heard Parliamentary Assembly (PA), caused during visit to the United States, NATO headlines in Europe by confirming a Parliamentary Assembly News Release, 20 long-held open secret: US nuclear June 2019 weapons are being stored in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and NATO Summit Turkey. Written by a Canadian senator for the Defence and Security The next NATO summit will be held in Committee of the NATO PA, the report London on December 3 and 4 as the assessed the future of the alliance marks its 70th anniversary. The organization’s nuclear deterrence December summit will be a chance to policy. It included a passing reference "address current and emerging security that appeared to reveal the location of challenges and how NATO continues to roughly 150 US nuclear weapons being invest and adapt to ensure it will remain stored in Europe. a pillar of stability in the years ahead", Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement. According to a copy of the document

published by Belgian Newspaper De Nuclear Weapons Morgen in mid-July, a section on the nuclear arsenal read: “These bombs are NATO’s collective defence strategy is stored at six US and European bases— based on a mix of nuclear, conventional Kleine Brogel in Belgium, Büchel in and missile defence capabilities. At the Germany, Aviano and Ghedi-Torre in 2018 NATO Summit, the alliance Italy, Volkel in The Netherlands, and continued to argue that its “nuclear Incirlik in Turkey”. The draft report was 21 discussed at a meeting of NATO PA in Canadian senator's NATO report Bratislava in June, and a final version of accidentally reveals location of U.S. nuclear the report was published online in July. weapons in Europe, National Post, 16 July 2019 This final version omits the specific reference to where the nuclear Location of US nuclear weapons in Europe weapons are stored. Instead, the report accidentally revealed in report from NATO refers vaguely to aircraft that could body, Stars and Stripes, 16 July 2019 carry nuclear weapons. Joseph A. Day (Canada) General Rapporteur, A New Era for Nuclear Over the years there have been a Deterrence? Modernisation, Arms Control, number of clear indications of the and Allied Nuclear Forces, NATO presence of US nuclear weapons in Parliamentary Assembly Defence and Europe, which derived from an Security Committee (DSC), 075 DSC 19 E agreement reached in the 1960s and is rev. 1, 11 July 2019 a relic of the Cold War era. Rupal N. Mehta, Extended deterrence and assurance in an emerging technology Although NATO member states remain environment, Journal of Strategic Studies, opposed to the nuclear ban treaty—the 2019 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW)—citizens, cities, Luca Ratti and Alessandro Leonardi, counties and federal governments Reviving Flexible Response: An Assessment of NATO’s Russian Strategy on the within the alliance continue to stress Alliance’s 70th Anniversary, The Journal of the urgency of nuclear disarmament. Slavic Military Studies, Vol. 32 No.2, 2019, Paris and Oslo, as well as the cities of pp.135-158 Saanich and Victoria in Canada recently joined the ICAN Cities Appeal, following other transatlantic cities such Operations and Missions as Berlin, Toronto, Los Angeles and Washington DC. In the United States, Afghanistan resolutions passed by the Oregon NATO’s current main operational effort Senate and the New Jersey Assembly is the Resolute Support Mission in express their staunch support for the Afghanistan to train, advise and assist nuclear ban treaty. In Scotland, the the Afghan security forces. NATO West Dunbartonshire Council became ended its combat mission in the fourth UK Council to formally Afghanistan in 2014, handing security support the TPNW. The Council also responsibility over to the Afghans, but called for its pension fund to divest maintains up to 16,000 troops on the from nuclear weapons (see the report ground as part of the Resolute Support by PAX and ICAN showing how banks Mission. and pension funds are financing the companies involved in the production At the Afghan National Army Trust of nuclear weapons). Fund board meeting in June, NATO reaffirmed its commitment to extend Officials discuss NATO’s nuclear deterrence financial support for the Afghan following demise of key arms treaty, New security forces until 2024. The decision Europe, 9 September 2019 was initially made at the 2017 NATO NATO diplomats and experts meet in Riga Brussels summit. Afghan forces need to discuss NATO’s nuclear deterrence, more than $5 billion. Also in June, the NATO News Release, 6 September 2019 Pentagon warned that a “robust” Marco Overhaus, A Matter of Credibility: counter-terrorism capability must Conventional and Nuclear Security remain in Afghanistan against groups Commitments of the United States in including al-Qaida, even if a peace deal Europe, German Institute for International with the Taliban is secured. “Even if a and Security Affairs, SWP Research Paper successful political settlement with the No. 10, August 2019 22

Taliban emerges from ongoing talks, Zalmay Khalilzad said on Twitter that AQ, ISIS-K, and some unknown number the parties had made “excellent of Taliban hardliners will constitute a progress” and that he expected a final substantial threat to the Afghan agreement by 1 September that would government and its citizens, as well as allow US and NATO forces to leave to the United States and its coalition Afghanistan. partners” the Pentagon report said. However, on the 8 September President Increases in civilian casualties Trump cancelled the planned meeting In July, the UN urged forces in at Camp David and declared the peace Afghanistan to immediately "reduce the talks “dead” after a car bombing in terrible harm being inflicted" on Kabul on 5 September killed dozens, civilians. The US and allied forces in including a US soldier. The negotiations Afghanistan killed 717 civilians during were controversial given the lack of the first half of the year, more than by participation by the Afghan the Taliban and other militant groups. government. The decision to end talks has increased concerns about One of the problems is that Afghan escalating violence. In recent weeks, ground controllers trained by the US the Taliban has killed dozens of Afghan and NATO are unable to direct airdrops civilians in Kabul in suicide attacks and and lack the ability to properly launched offensives on provincial coordinate attack missions by the capitals, as well as killing several US Afghan Air Force, increasing the risk of soldiers. In turn, Afghan and US forces civilian casualties, according to the have been attacking the Taliban with Pentagon's Office of Inspector General. special forces raids and airstrikes. The Taliban has threatened to disrupt the Afghanistan also ranks as one of the upcoming presidential election on 28 most landmine- and unexploded September. ordnance-impacted countries in the world. According to a September report Must Read: Stephanie Savell, The Imperial by the Costs of War project, at least Debris of War: Why Ending the Afghan War 5,442 people have been killed and Won’t End the Killing, TomDispatch, 19 September 2019 14,693 people have been injured by devices embedded in or left on the US General for NATO: Afghan Violence Will ground since 2001. Rise Before Vote, Military.com, 14 September 2019 The collapse of the peace talks Must Read: On 18th Anniversary of 9/11, In August, the United States and the Media Worry About ‘Premature’ End to Taliban had appeared to be close to Afghan War, Fair, 11 September 2019 reaching an agreement to end the 18- Stephen Walt, We Lost the War in year war and start talks between the Afghanistan. Get Over It, Foreign Policy, 11 insurgent group and the Afghan September 2019 government. Despite the peace talks, the Taliban declared the Afghan Andrew J. Bacevich, Reflections on “Peace” elections scheduled for 28 September a in Afghanistan: Leaving a Misguided War and Choosing Not to Look Back, “sham” and warned that campaign TomDispatch, 10 September 2019 rallies and polling locations could be the targets of attacks, casting doubt Tareq Kakar, Why Pulling Out of over whether the elections would go Afghanistan Makes Sense, International Policy Digest, 9 September 2019 ahead. Nonetheless, it was also reported that the United States and the After Trump cancels secret Taliban talks, Taliban had resolved differences in what’s next for peace in Afghanistan? PBSO their peace negotiations. The US envoy News Hour, 9 September 2019

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Was Khalilzad kept unaware by Trump Danny Sjursen, How America’s Wars End about calling off peace talks? The News, 9 (Messily): And the Afghan War Will Be No September 2019 Exception, TomDispatch, 28 July 2019

Elias Groll and Lara Seligman, Taliban Peace Pentagon: ‘Robust’ counter-terrorism Talks Scrapped, Foreign Policy, 9 efforts in Afghanistan must continue — September 2019 even if peace deal is reached, Military Times, 14 July 2019 U.S. military likely to ramp up operations against Taliban: U.S. general, Reuters, 9 What Would the U.S. Do if Russia Attacked September 2019 with Nuclear Weapons? The National Interest, 3 July 2019 Why did President Donald Trump call off Taliban talks? Deutsche Welle, 8 September NATO Secretary General: We Will Stay in 2019 Afghanistan As Long as Necessary, Air Force Magazine, 24 June 2019 U.S. Recalls Special Envoy After Trump Cancels Secret Afghan Peace Talks, Radio U.S. Special Forces Battle Against ISIS Turns Fre Europe/ Radio Liberty, 8 September to Containment, and Concern, New York 2019 Times, 14 June 2019

Trump cancels secret U.S.-Taliban meeting, Kabul welcomes NATO's reaffirmed pledge Politico, 8 September 2019 to extend funding for Afghan Forces until 2024, Urdu Point, 9 June 2019 Taliban suicide bomber kills at least 10 civilians, two NATO troops in Kabul, NATO Has Commended Reforms in Afghan Reuters, 5 September 2019 Institutions: Qayumi, Tolo News, 9 June 2019 NATO backs US Afghan peace efforts, Shepherd Media, 4 September 2019 American troops won't leave Afghanistan before NATO allies, says U.S. envoy, NATO Identifies Soldiers Killed In Afghan Washington Times, 5 June 2019 Combat As U.S. Special Operations Forces, Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, 23 NATO Allies and partners reaffirm their firm August 2019 support to Ambassador Khalilzad’s continued efforts towards lasting peace in Jim Golby and Peter Feaver, It Matters If Afghanistan, NATO News Release, 5 June Americans Call Afghanistan a Defeat, The 2019 Atlantic, 17 August 2019 NATO Allies and partners reaffirm their Must Read: Michael E. O’Hanlon, Is the commitment to the financial sustainment Afghanistan deal a good one? Brookings of the Afghan security forces and the (Blog), 16 August 2019 importance of strong security forces to IG Finds Major Shortcomings in US, NATO peace in Afghanistan, NATO News Release, Close-Air Support Training for Afghans, 4 June 2019 Military.com, 12 August 2019 Iraq Afghan leader rejects foreign interference as talks advance, Stars and Stripes, 11 On the request of the Iraqi government, August 2019 NATO agreed to establish a training NATO insists on ‘preserving gains’ as U.S.- and capacity-building mission in Iraq in Taliban peace talks gain momentum, October 2018. NATO Mission Iraq (NMI) Khaama Press, 2 August 2019 is helping to strengthen Iraqi security

NATO Chief Reiterates Support To Intra- forces and Iraqi military education Afghan Talks, Tolo News, 2 August 2019 institutions so that Iraqi forces can prevent the return of the Islamic State. Afghan government and Nato killing more civilians than the Taliban, The Guardian, 30 Speech by NATO Secretary General Jens July 2019 Stoltenberg at the Iraqi Defence University,

UN: US, allies killed more civilians than 17 September 2019

Taliban in Afghanistan in first half of 2019, NATO Secretary General arrives in Iraq with Deutsche Welle, 30 July 2019 Supreme Allied Commander Europe, NATO News Release, 16 September 2019

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NATO general insists Iraq mission Dan Sabbagh, 'Still needed': Nato marks 20 uninterrupted by US-Iran tensions, years in Kosovo, The Guardian, 12 June Kurdistan24, 6 June 2019 2019

Kosovo President Trump and the Two decades after the withdrawal of Transatlantic Bond Serbian forces, Kosovo's security is still guaranteed by 4,000 NATO troops, The NATO Secretary General Jens known as KFOR. In December 2018, Stoltenberg and many government Kosovo’s parliament voted to turn its officials and commentators across the lightly-armed emergency response alliance have articulated the force into a 5,000-strong professional importance of the ‘transatlantic bond’ military. Serbia views this decision as a and how it has been strengthened in threat to Kosovo's 120,000-strong NATO. However, President Trump’s ethnic-Serb minority. While NATO nationalistic ‘America first’ agenda and expressed concerns with this decision, ‘shaking of the NATO tree’ suggests the United States backed the formation that such a bond may only be skin deep of a Kosovan army. and close to breaking point.

Five NATO members, Germany, France, Deborah Hanagan, NATO, what is it good for? Washington Times, 16 September Italy, the UK and the United States 2019 issued a joint statement on 13 August calling on Serbia and Kosovo to “restart Donald Trump's NATO attacks are EU-led dialogue with urgency”. The five 'Dangerous' and could tempt Putin to test NATO members said that they were the Alliance, former Secretary General warns, Newsweek, 16 September 2019 prepared to play a part in new talks but only if “you both signal a willingness to Marco Overhaus, What Divides NATO? compromise, remove obstacles and Project Syndicate, 29 August 2019 resume discussions”. John M. Schuessler and Joshua R. Shifrinson, The Shadow of Exit from NATO, Talks are unlikely to recommence until Strategic Studies Quarterly, Fall 2019 Kosovo holds parliamentary elections on 6 October. The election was called Tal Axelrod, Here are the US allies that have been caught in Trump's crosshairs, The following the resignation of prime Hill, 24 August 2019 minister Ramush Haradinaj to face a special war crimes tribunal in The Mira Rapp-Hooper and Matthew C. Hague. Waxman, Presidential Alliance Powers, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 42 No.2, 2019, Kosovo jails six for plans to attack NATO pp. 67-83 troops, other countries, WTVB, 5 Stephanie Griffith, The existential threat September 2019 Trump poses to the world political order is Serbia, Kosovo urged to ease tensions by a major 2020 campaign issue, Think NATO countries, Deutsche Welle, 13 Progress, 6 July 2019 August 2019 If America leaves NATO- Europe alone: July Thorsten Gromes, A Humanitarian 2024, The Economist, 6 July 2019

Milestone? NATO’s 1999 Intervention in Nicholas Waller, NATO needs unity, New Kosovo and Trends in Military Responses to Europe, 1 July 2019 Mass Violence, PRIF Report 2/2019 Samo Burja and Matt Ellison, Why America Kosovo Albanians welcome Clinton, Prefers a Weak and Peaceful Europe, Albright 20 years after NATO intervention, National Interest, 30 June 2019 Reuters, 12 June 2019 Panel: Rise of Authoritarian Governments Serbeze Haxhiaj, NATO General Recalls Pose Biggest Threat to NATO, USNI News, Kosovo Mission’s Hopes and Horrors, 28 June 2019 Balkan Insight, 12 June 2019

25

Anne Applebaum, ‘America First’ has NATO NATO spending increase is an 'aggressive feeling uneasy, The Spokesman Review, 8 anti-Russian' move 'without any June 2019 justification,' Russia claims, Newsweek, 18 July 2019

Russia-NATO relations Top Russian, NATO generals meet in Baku to discuss security issues, RT, 11 July 2019 Relations between Russia and NATO have deteriorated to record post-Cold Moscow concerned about US pulling neutral European states into NATO drills – War lows. Both sides have competing Lavrov, RT, 9 July 2019 explanations for this. Within the alliance, there remain disagreements NATO-Russia Council meets in Brussels, NATO News Release, 5 July 2019 about the nature of the Russian threat and how to respond to it. NATO mum on post-Soviet security bloc’s offer to set up security consultations According to the Russian news agency mechanism, TASS, 4 July 2019 TASS, the Collective Security Treaty Russian Kilo-class sails surfaced through Organization (CSTO) has received no NATO anti-submarine exercise, Barents response from NATO to its proposal to Observer, 1 July 2019 establish a mechanism of regular consultations on security matters NATO and Russia: Maneuvers and between their secretariats. countermaneuvers on the Baltic Sea, Deutsche Welle, 14 June 2019

A radioactive explosion in Nyonoksa, Jan Oberg, Can Russia invade Europe? Northern Russia on 8 August, is Transnational, 11 June 2019 thought to have been a botched test of Jonathan Power, Russia is bitter about the a nuclear-powered cruise missile. West, Transnational, 11 June 2019

David Axe, Russia's Kaliningrad Territory Is Asya Metodieva, Russian Narrative Proxies Armed to The Teeth. NATO Wants to Crush in the Western Balkans, GMF Policy Paper, It in a War, The National Interest, 19 No.16, June 2019 September 2019 Jonathan Power, To St Petersburg with Putin is the greatest gift to NATO since the Love, Transnational, 4 June 2019 end of the Cold War, ex-CIA chief says, Russia’s Chief of General Staff, NATO CNBC, 6 September 2019 Supreme Allied Commander speak over Richard Caroll, Russia And the West, How phone, TASS, 3 June 2019 the West Won the Cold War but Lost the Russian intelligence operations shifting Peace, International Policy Digest, 1 tactics not goals, Mark Galeotti, NATO September 2019 Review, 26 April 2019 Mitch Prothero, Russia's nuclear weapons tests were linked to a radioactive explosion. Trump's friendliness with Putin Special Forces makes it hard for NATO to do anything The Chief of the General Staff of the about it, Business Insider, 29 August 2019 Azerbaijani Armed Forces met with a Russian, NATO top brass discuss bilateral delegation led by the Commander of relations, Tass, 28 August 2019 NATO Special Operations

Keir Giles, Time to Shed More Light on Headquarters, Vice Admiral Colin J. Russian Harassment of NATO Forces’ Kilrain in early July. During the meeting, Families, Chatham House Comment, 14 the sides reportedly exchanged views August 2019 on the development of further

Russia fighter wards off NATO jet nearing cooperation between the Special Forces defense minister's plane, Stars and Stripes, of Azerbaijan and NATO and other 13 August 2019 issues of mutual interest.

Nordic countries see Russia flex its missile Approximately 1,400 special muscles, Defense News, 5 August 2019 operations and armed forces from 10 26 nations deployed across host nations the Pentagon to establish a Space Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania in June Force, describing it as a sixth branch of for US Special Operations Command the US military. In August, Vice Europe’s (SOCEUR) exercise Trojan President Mike Pence outlined some of Footprint 19—an annual SOCEUR-led the concrete steps needed to create the exercise that brings together US, allied US Space Force, which is expected to be and partner special operations forces vaguely modelled on the US Special across Europe. SOF and the armed Operations Command. There will also forces of Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, be a Space Development Agency to the Republic of North Macedonia, streamline hardware procurement and Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, innovation. the UK and the United States took part in this year’s exercise. While NATO owns ground-based infrastructure, it does not have its own 1400 NATO, Partner SOF in Black Sea space-based assets. Instead, it requires Region for Trojan Footprint 19, DVIDS, 25 permission to access member states’ July 2019 satellites (which make up about 65 per

How NATO’s special operations can take cent of the global total of satellites) advantage of the tech boom, Military before they can be used. However, Times, 25 July 2019 given that NATO and member states’

Chief of General Staff of Azerbaijani Armed capabilities—including GPS Forces meets Commander of NATO Special capabilities, intelligence and Operations Headquarters, MenaFM, 3 July surveillance operations, missile 2019 defence, communications, space situational awareness and

environmental monitoring—could be Space Policy weakened or lost by an adversary At the NATO Defence Ministers meeting compromising satellites NATO uses to in June (see above) a new policy or “a conduct military operations, it is clearly common NATO framework” was agreed prudent for the alliance to amend its to “guide our approach to space, the policy and doctrine to include opportunities and the challenges”. provisions on the use of space systems. While the substance of the policy remains secret, the NATO Secretary Indeed, this was recommended in a General argued that it was “not about recent report by the UK think-tank militarizing space”, but rather NATO Chatham House, which warned that playing an important role “as a forum that the space-based assets of NATO to share information, increase member states are vulnerable to interoperability, and ensure that our cyberattacks. The report argues that missions and operations can call on the Russian and China space capabilities support they need”. According to and their cyber technologies pose reports, further details may emerge at particular threats to NATO because the NATO Summit in London in both have their own satellite systems, December, including a possible rather than relying on the US-provided declaration of space as an operational GPS or the EU’s Galileo system. To domain alongside land, air and sea. protect alliance space-based assets This would allow space to be used for from cyberattacks, the report said military operations during times of war. NATO should focus on minimizing risk through “preparedness, resilience, and The timing of the new NATO space continuity” to create a more pre- policy suggests that this is, at least in emptive cybersecurity strategy. part, a reaction to US-led developments. In June 2018, President NATO Watch Comment: The extent to Trump announced that he had directed which NATO becomes an independent

27 actor in space and the policy framework NATO aims to make space new frontier in for addressing space challenges and defense, Defence Web, 24 June 2019 cyber warfare are issues that should be NATO Prepares for Space Warfare by more widely debated within member Militarizing Low Earth Orbit, International states’ parliaments and by independent Business Times, 24 June 2019 experts in the public domain. To this NATO aims to make space new frontier in end, NATO should publish its new defense, Reuters, 21 June 2019 space policy. Despite Stoltenberg’s insistence, it may only be a matter of Nato considering declaring space a domain of warfare, The Telegraph, 21 June 2019 time before weaponized systems are deployed in orbit, with the United States taking the lead, and China, Women, Peace and Security Russia and India almost certainly NATO first published an action plan in following. 2007 to advance the Women, Peace and Another sensitive issue will be deciding Security agenda. In July 2018 a new if an attack on an allied satellite NATO/EAPC Policy and Action Plan was constitutes an assault on the alliance endorsed by Heads of State and and whether it triggers NATO’s Article Government at the NATO Summit, and 5 collective defence clause. As the in September 2018 the plan was made recent special edition of the Bulletin of public. the Atomic Scientists asks, is space the In June, approximately 150 participants next military frontier or an arms control from 24 NATO member states, North opportunity? The focus of NATO Macedonia and 11 partner nations military efforts in outer space should gathered to participate in the 43rd be on the latter, and to ensure that they NATO Committee on Gender are, greater transparency in the policy- Perspectives (NCGP) Annual making process is essential. Conference. NEWS FROM DSEI: NATO Must Beg Members to Access Space Capabilities, National Since mid-June, Commodore Josee Defense, 13 September 2019 Kurtz has been in charge of Standing NATO Maritime Group Two, which Andrei Kadomtsev, NATO’s “space includes vessels from Britain, Turkey strategy”: What is it all about?, Modern Diplomacy, 3 August 2019 and Romania. SAs the first woman to be given such a NATO Command, she said Alexey Arbatov, Arms control in outer “I do think it sends a really strong signal space: The Russian angle, and a possible to the newer generation of young way forward, Bulletin of the Atomic people who want to do a military Scientists, 27 June 2019 career, and I say that whether they are Report Suggests Cyber Strategies for NATO women or men, or any minority group. Space-Based Assets, Merit Talk.com, 2 July 2019 A tremendous opportunity': Canadian officer becomes first woman to command Report: Pentagon Should Assume U.S. standing NATO fleet, National Post, 31 July Satellites Are Already Hacked, 2019 Nextgov.com, 2 July 2019 Clare Hutchinson - What is NATO’s Cyberwarfare in space: Satellites at risk of commitment to gender equality? NATO hacker attacks, ZD Net, 2 July 2019 News Release, 26 July 2019 Beyza Unal, Cybersecurity of NATO’s Space- Integrating Gender Perspective and based Strategic Assets, Research Paper, Accountability - 43rd NATO Committee on Chatham House, July 2019 Gender Perspectives (NCGP) Annual Countdown to NATO space strategy, France Conference, NATO News Release, 24 June 24, 25 June 2019 2019

28

Bulgaria approves $1.26 billion deal with Security News from US to buy F-16 aircraft, Economic Times, 10 NATO Member States: July 2019

Albania Canada

A NATO team is looking at how to Canadian Special Forces will receive invest around $50m in a first phase of three new Beechcraft King Air 350ER upgrading Albania’s Kucova air base. twin-turboprop aircraft in 2022. The The plan is not for the alliance to have aircraft will be based at CFB Trenton, jets based there permanently, but for it Ontario, and will be utilized for to be an operational base for refuelling intelligence, surveillance and and for ammunition to be stored in its reconnaissance missions both overseas communist-era tunnels, originally built and domestically. Canada finalized an to house 100 military aircraft. agreement with the US government in April for $142.4 million. The total Once part of the Warsaw Pact, Albania will soon host a NATO air base, The Economist, programme cost is estimated to be 19 September 2019 $187 million, which includes acquisition of the aircraft and mission Secretary General praises Albania’s equipment and an initial allotment of commitment to NATO, calls for political funding for in-service support. dialogue, NATO News Release, 2 June 2019

In June, Canada’s defence minister Bulgaria announced that the country would extend its current NATO training Bulgaria's government agreed with the mission in Iraq until November 2020. United States in early July to buy eight Canada has 850 military personnel in new Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters for Iraq, including 250 as part of the NATO its air force for $1.256 billion, the mission. defence ministry said, its biggest military purchase since the fall of On 19 June, Canada ratified the Arms Communism. The country, is looking to Trade Treaty (ATT), becoming the replace its ageing Soviet-made MiG-29s 104th state party to the ATT. Chrystia and improve compliance with NATO Freeland, Canada’s Minister of Foreign standards. The decision still requires Affairs, sad that Canada is “taking a parliamentary approval. stronger and more rigorous approach to the export of Canadian arms. In July, Bulgaria hosted the United Today’s announcement is a significant States and 11 NATO allies in the nine- milestone in Canada’s contributions to day Breeze 19, a maritime exercise that international efforts to combat the included three US Navy P-8A Poseidon illicit trade of weapons”. However, the patrol aircraft. The annual exercise, led Canadian government has been by the Bulgarian navy, also included criticised for its sales of light-armoured units from Albania, Belgium, Greece, vehicles to Saudi Arabia. Italy, Poland, Romania, Turkey and Allied Maritime Command NATO. The largest Canadian-led naval exercise to take place off Canada’s east coast in Michael Peck, How One Country's Politicans decades took place in September. are Literally Going to War over the F-16, The Around 2,800 sailors and airmen from National Interest, 1 September 2019 eight nations took part in Cutlass Fury U.S. joins 11 NATO allies for Breeze 2019 2019, an eleven-day exercise that maritime exercise in Bulgaria, SpaceWar, 15 brought together 20 ships and 36 July 2019 aircraft in the waters off Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

29

Nicole J. Jackson, Deterrence, Resilience denounced President Trump for his and Hybrid Wars: The Case of Canada and critical comments about the nation's NATO, Journal of Military and Strategic defence spending, saying that Denmark Studies, Vol.19, Issue No.4, 2019 will "not accept that our defence NATO navies arrive in Halifax for Cutlass willingness is only about percentages” Fury, largest such naval exercise in and cited the country’s military decades, NATO News Release, 6 September commitment in Afghanistan. 2019

Trudeau urged to increase military In September, citing global instability spending during NATO secretary-general and its duties as a member of NATO, visit to Ottawa, Montreal Gazette, 15 July the Danish government announced 2019 plans to increase its military contributions to a number of missions NATO secretary general OKs Canada’s defence spending during visit with around the world, including the Global Trudeau, Global News, 15 July 2019 Coalition against Islamic State in northeast Syria, the UN peacekeeping NATO Secretary General: Canada makes mission in Mali, France’s mission in the essential contributions to international Sahel, and a US aircraft carrier group in peace and security, NATO News Release, 15 July 2019 the north Atlantic and Mediterranean, in addition to increasing its Canada extends command of Nato training contribution to NATO. mission in Iraq, Army Technology, 1 July 2019 Denmark plans to boost military

Defence Minister Sajjan attends NATO contributions to Syria, the Sahel and NATO, Defense Post, 7 September 2019 Defence Ministers’ Meeting, Mirage News, 29 June 2019 Former Danish leader fires back at Trump

Canadian Special Forces King Air 350ER ISR over defense spending comments, The Hill, 22 August 2019 Aircraft Arriving in 2022, Defence and Security Monitor, 28 June 2019 Trump Notes Denmark Isn’t Meeting NATO

Canada will extend its NATO mission in Iraq Commitment as Spat Over Greenland to 2020: Defense Minister, Kurdistan24, 26 Intensifies, The Epoch Times, 21 August June 2019 2019

Canada extends leadership of NATO training mission in Iraq to November 2020, Estonia Edmonton Journal, 26 June 2019 In September, Estonia and 16 NATO Canadian special forces will receive three allies participated in the annual new surveillance aircraft - aircraft expected Northern Coasts military exercise near 2022, Ottawa Citizen, 24 June 2019 the Danish straights connecting the

Baltic Sea to the North Sea, as well as Denmark between Kiel, Germany, and Bornholm, Denmark. Around 3,000 troops and In August, tensions arose between the over 40 vessels took part. United States and Denmark after President Trump postponed his visit Estonia, together with 17 allies, to the country after Denmark's prime participates in the Northern Coasts military minister, Mette Frederiksen, called his exercise, Estonian World, 16 September 2019 interest in purchasing Greenland "absurd". Trump then asserted that Outgoing Estonian air chief: NATO needs to Denmark was not spending enough on improve its response time, Defense News, NATO, tweeting, "For the record, 17 July 2019 Denmark is only at 1.35% of GDP for NATO spending”. Former Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen

30

France offensive to assume that the US taxpayers continue to pay for more France has officially acknowledged for than 50,000 Americans in Germany but the first time that French Polynesians the Germans get to spend their were forced into accepting almost 200 (budget) surplus on domestic nuclear tests conducted over a 30-year programmes,” Grenell said. Germany’s period in a bill issued by the French fiscal plans foresee the defence budget parliament reforming the collectivity of rising to 1.37% of GDP next year before 118 islands in the South Pacific. The bill falling to 1.24% in 2023. also makes it easier for the local population to request compensation In September, the German government for cancer and other illnesses linked to agreed to continue to halt arms exports radioactivity. to Saudi Arabia because of the war in Yemen and the Social Democrats’ France's Suffren reinforces NATO power, Washington Examiner, 15 July 2019 refusal to drop opposition to lifting the moratorium. The halt on arms exports France seeks more European special forces was last extended at the end of March. to tackle rising Sahel violence, RT, 13 June Without another extension, it would 2019 have expired on 30 September. 56 France acknowledges Polynesian islands German and international NGOs 'strong-armed' into dangerous nuclear published an open letter calling on the tests, The Telegraph, 24 May 2019 German government to convert the

moratorium into a ban on arms exports Germany to the Saudi-UAE-led coalition.

In June, the US State Department New NATO command in Germany will move approved the sale to Germany of up to troops and tanks to hot spots, Stars and 91 AGM-88E Advanced Anti-Radiation Stripes, 18 September 2019

Guided Missile (AARGM) Tactical Germany warns against early NATO Missiles, and up to 8 AGM-88E AARGM withdrawal from Afghanistan, Reuters, 14 Captive Air Training Missiles (CATM) September 2019 through the NATO Support and Anne Gearan and Michael Birnbaum, Trump Procurement Agency. The Notification may score symbolic victory in long fight to Congress values this Major Defense with Germany over NATO spending, Stars Equipment portion of the proposed sale and Stripes, 3 September 2019 at $105.23 million. Daniel Depetris, It’s High Time for Germany

In July, it was reported that Defense to Fund, and Fix, Its Military, Defense One, 14 August 2019 Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is calling for Berlin to take steps by Spend more on defense or we move troops 2024 to raise German military spending to Poland, U.S. envoy tells Germany, Reuters, 9 August 2019 to the NATO target of 2% of GDP, which would mean an increase in spending in Leonid Bershidsky, Germany Should Just the double-digit billions of euros. She Drop NATO’s 2% Spending Goal - The target said the government would attempt to is irrelevant to the specific military needs of meet NATO's target, but added it would the country and the alliance, Bloomberg, 25 July 2019 "not be achieved overnight”. CDU's AKK aims to boost Bundeswehr In August, the US ambassador to budget to NATO target, Deutsche Welle, 22 Germany, Richard Grenell, suggested July 2019 that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s New German defence chief pledges to unwillingness to boost defence speed up race to Nato 2pc spending target, spending might give the United States The Telegraph, 21 July 2019 no choice but to move US troops stationed in Germany to Poland. “It is 31

Potential pitfalls for Germany's new 70 Years of NATO and Iceland: a strong defense minister, Deutsche Welle, 17 July transatlantic bond in an uncertain world, 2019 Speech by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the Nordic House, Reykjavik Charlie Gao, Meet the Powerful German G3 (Iceland), 11 June 2019 Assault Rifle, National Interest, 14 July 2019

Marcus Colla, The burden of friendship: Latvia

Germany, Trump and NATO, The Two large-scale international military Interpreter, The Lowy Institute, 5 July 2019 exercises will be held in Latvia in the US approves anti-radar missile sale to autumn: Silver Bullet (26 September to Germany via NATO procurement agency, 6 October) will involve troops from Defense Post, 3 July 2019 Estonia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia,

Germany approved for $122M guided as well as troops from the Canadian led missile purchase through U.S., NATO, UPI, NATO battle group; and Furious Axe 1 July 2019 (28 October to 10 November) will

Germany to ban exports of side-arms to involve military units from Latvia and non-allies, Reuters, 24 June 2019 Estonia, as well as soldiers from the Canadian led NATO battle group in Tomáš Weiss, Between NATO and a hard Latvia and the British led NATO battle place: defence spending debate in Germany and Czechia, European Security, Vol. 28, group in Estonia.

No.2, 2019, pp.193-211 NATO’s enhanced Forward Presence

battlegroup uparmours in Latvia, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 19 August 2019 Iceland

Iceland is one of the founding members Two large-scale international military exercises to be held in Latvia in the of NATO, and despite not having a autumn, The Baltic Times, 12 August 2019 defence budget, contributes to the alliance in a number of ways. These include maritime and air surveillance Netherlands from the Keflavik air base and civilian The Royal Netherlands Air Force will contributions to different NATO soon buy another eight or nine F-35 missions and operations. combat aircraft, defence minister Ank

Planned US military investment of $91 Bijleveld said in a July 2019 interview. million in Iceland, mostly to expand the The additional F-35s will help the Dutch Keflavik air base, has received a mixed air force to reequip an additional front- response in the country—especially line fighter squadron. Today the RNLAF among Prime Minister Katrin operates around 60 F-16s in three Jakobsdottir’s Left-Green Movement, front-line squadrons and one training which has historically opposed unit. In 2013, the Dutch government Iceland’s membership of NATO. agreed to buy 37 F-35s for $6 billion and the first operational aircraft were Mike Pence heads into potential new Nordic delivered in January 2019. The RNLAF storm with Iceland visit, Stars and Stripes, is now looking to operate 52 F-35s in 4 September 2019 three front-line squadrons as early as

US, NATO allies team up for Icelandic Air the mid-2020s. Surveillance exercise, US Air Force, 16 August 2019 The Dutch Government is apparently considering ending the nuclear task Iceland rift over NATO membership once the F-16 is replaced by the F-35. sidelined in Arctic security talks, Stars and The nuclear task is currently assigned Stripes, 11 June 2019 to a squadron of fighter pilots allegedly NATO Secretary General visits Iceland, hosting about 20 B61 nuclear bombs. NATO News Release, 11 June 2019

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More F-35s Are Headed to This NATO the build-up of cyber warfare Member, National Interest, 21 July 2019 capacities.

Dutch government sets a (qualified) Poland Gets All-Clear to Buy US F-35 Joint timeline to end the nuclear task, PAX No Strike Fighters, Military.com, 11 September Nukes, 8 July 2019 2019

Dan Goure, Poland: The Most Important Poland Member of NATO (Thanks to the Russia

By 2026, the Polish Ministry of Defence Threat)? The National Interest, 6 September 2019 plans to allocate about 185 billion zloty (US $47 billion) toward acquiring new Jaroslaw Adamowski, How Poland plans to weapons and military equipment, with land an F-35 deal and ‘Fort Trump’, Defense News, 29 August 2019 fifth-generation combat aircraft a top priority. For 2019, the Polish MoD set a Grant Turnbull, From Russia to Nato: the record budget, at more than 44 billion logic behind Poland’s military zloty, in order to raise defence modernisation, Army Technology, 8 July spending to 2.1 per cent of GDP in 2019

2020 (and 2.5% in 2030). Artur Kacprzyk, Increased US Presence in Poland is a Good Deal for NATO, ELN Warsaw is also seeking a permanent US Commentary, 21 June 2019 military presence in Poland, dubbed ‘Fort Trump’, and offered to allocate at Russia warns NATO over US-Poland troop move, Deutsche Welle, 13 June 2019 least $2 billion towards the project. On 12 June, Polish President Andrzej Duda Russia concerned about growing US met US President Donald Trump in military presence in Poland, TASS, 13 June 2019 Washington and agreed a joint declaration on defence cooperation. James Stavridis, Poland Isn’t Getting Its “The United States plans to enhance its ‘Fort Trump’ – Yet, Bloomberg, 13 June current military presence of 2019 approximately 4,500 rotational US Bartosz Dudek, Chief US salesman strikes a military personnel in Poland. This deal with Poland, Deutsche Welle, 13 June enduring presence is expected to grow 2019 by about 1,000 additional US military Elias Groll and Lara Seligman, Trump’s personnel in the near-term, and would Polish Message to NATO, Foreign Policy, 13 focus on providing additional defence June 2019 and deterrence capabilities in Poland” the joint declaration read. Lara Seligman and Robbie Gramer, ‘Fort Trump’ for Poland? Not Quite, Foreign Policy, 12 June 2019 In September, the US government cleared the sale of 32 Lockheed Martin- NATO greets Trump’s Poland troop plan made F-35A Lightning II aircraft to warmly; effect on US bases in Germany Poland at an estimated cost of $6.5 uncertain, Stars and Stripes, 12 June 2019 billion. Despite the country’s rising Trump to announce US troop increase in defence expenditure, some observers Poland, The Hill, 11 June 2019 doubt Poland’s capacity to finance the NATO Secretary General: Poland makes F-35 acquisition alongside other major contributions to our shared security, ambitious military procurements. In NATO News Release, 4 June 2019 March 2018, Poland agreed to purchase Raytheon’s medium-range Patriot Grzegorz Kuczyński, Krzysztof Kamiński, system with deliveries expected by the Glen E. Howard, Laurynas Kasčiūnas and end of 2022. Warsaw’s other Iulian Chifu, U.S. Permanent Military Base in Poland: Favorable Solution for the NATO procurement plans include, short- Alliance, Warsaw Institute, 2019 range air defence systems, combat helicopters, new submarines, UAVs and

33

Portugal The US and Romania Will Work to Strengthen Defense in NATO's Eastern Dozens of unmanned underwater, Flank, Novinite, 21 August 2019 surface and air vehicles from NATO countries gathered in Portugal in NATO Secretary General appoints Mircea Geoana as next Deputy Secretary General, September to test new technological NATO News, 17 July 2019 advances in unmanned maritime systems networks. The exercise was Romania's Former Top Diplomat Appointed held in the Sesimbra and Troia Deputy Secretary-General Of NATO, Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, 17 July 2019 Peninsula area in the south of Lisbon. Around 800 personnel from the Portuguese Navy, as well as from Slovakia Belgium, Italy, Poland, Turkey, UK, Slovakia will increase its military United States and the NATO Centre for budget to the NATO target of 2 per cent Maritime Research and of GDP by 2022, two years earlier than Experimentation contributed to the planned, President Zuzana Caputova exercise, which was also supported by told NATO officials in Brussels in June. academia and industry. Slovakia to meet NATO defence budget Portugal hosts maritime exercise in support target by 2022: president, Space War, 25 of NATO’s Maritime Unmanned Systems June 2019 Initiative, NATO News Release, 17 September 2019 NATO Secretary General: Slovakia makes many contributions to our shared security, Country is 'available' to reinforce NATO NATO News Release, 25 June 2019 submarine capacity, Portugal News, 6 June 2019 Turkey

Romania Turkey’s acquisition of the S-400 anti-

In July, NATO Secretary General Jens aircraft missile system from Russia (at Stoltenberg appointed Mircea Geoana a cost of $2.5 billion) had been from Romania as the next Deputy straining an already tense relationship Secretary General. He will replace Rose with the United States. In June, Turkey’s Gottemoeller from the United States. foreign minister said that the country He is the first official from the former would proceed with the purchase of the Soviet-dominated eastern bloc to rise to Russian system, despite US warnings such a position in the alliance. that it could lead to the country’s exclusion from the F-35 programme. In Romania is planning to rebuild the July, Turkey accepted delivery of the Mihail Kogalniceanu military base, system, and the United States which is located close to the Black Sea responded by removing Turkey from coast, according to NATO standards the F-35 joint strike fighter and increase its capacity. The cost of programme. Turkey will lose its the project are estimated at RON 12 production work on the F-35 by March billion (over EUR 2.5 billion) over a 2020. Turkish President Recep Tayyip period of 20 years. The base is Erdogan suggested his country may expected to accommodate Romania’s buy Russian-made Su-35 and Su-57 fleet of F-16 combat aircraft (and F-35s combat aircraft instead. in the future), as well as accommodating Romanian and NATO In August, the Turkish Defence Ministry troops. stated that units of the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) Romania plans to spend EUR 2.5 bln to attacked a Turkish military base in rebuild military base at NATO standards, northeastern Syria, wounding two Romanian Insider, 24 September 2019 Turkish soldiers. The incident followed

34 an announcement that the United Turkey’s row with America over Russian States and Turkey would establish a military hardware, The Economist, 26 July joint centre to patrol the proposed 2019

“safe zone” in northeastern Syria, which Turkey's 67 years of valuable membership would provide a buffer between the in NATO, Daily Sabah, 25 July 2019

Turkish border and Syrian Kurdish Neville Teller, Turkey invites the Russians forces allied with the United States. into NATO, Eurasia Review, 24 July 2019

The delivery of a second battery of Jim Townsend and Rachel Ellehuus, The tale Russian S-400 missiles to Turkey was of Turkey and the Patriots, War on the completed in mid-September and the Rocks, 22 July 2019 system is expected to become fully Ellen Mitchell, Five things to know about active in April 2020. Turkey's rift with Trump, The Hill, 21 July 2019 Turkey says S-400 system will be active in April as it receives second battery from Nicholas Danforth, Frustration, Fear, and Russia, Middle East Eye, 15 September the Fate of U.S.-Turkish Relations, GMF On 2019 Turkey, No. 11, 19 July 2019

Turkey: Russian S-400 missile system NATO Secretary General: Alliance, Turkey operational in April 2020, Al Jazeera, 15 Still Friends Despite S-400, Defense One, September 2019 17 July 2019

Turkey: President Erdogan Says Russian Turkey officially kicked out of F-35 Fighter-Jet Purchase Under Consideration, program, costing US half a billion dollars, Eurasia Review, 31 August 2019 Defense News, 17 July 2019

Aykan Erdemir, Erdogan’s Russian Pipe Turkey can't have both American F-35s and Dreams, The Globalist, 31 August 2019 Russia's S-400s: US, Al Jazeera, 16 July 2019 Soner Kistak, There is no better alternative to NATO: Analysis, Hurriyet Daily News, 30 Elias Groll and Lara Seligman, Trump Set to August 2019 Sanction Turkey, Foreign Policy, 15 July 2019 Turkey's Erdogan eyes Russian fighter jets amid US standoff, Al Jazeera, 29 August Turkish S-400s Create ‘New Order’ In Mid 2019 East Airspace, Breaking Defense, 15 July 2019 Turkey Shopping for Russian Fighters as Russia Claims Ankara as an Ally, Air Force NATO warns Turkey about Russia missile Magazine, 28 August 2019 system, Middle East Monitor, 13 July 2019

Peter Roberts and Seth Newkirk, Turkey, Pentagon quiet after NATO ally Turkey the US and the S-400: A Counter-Narrative, receives Russian missile system, The Hill, RUSI Commentary, 15 August 2019 12 July 2019

Alessandro Gagaridis, Point Counterpoint: Turkey begins receiving Russian missiles in Turkey Should Be Expelled from NATO, challenge to U.S. and NATO, Reuters, 12 Geopolitical Monitor, 6 August 2019 July 2019

Delivery of second batch of S-400s to be Simon Waldman, Ticking timebomb of completed in 2020: Official, Hurriyet Daily Cypriot-Turkish feud poses a headache for News, 1 August 2019 Nato and Europe, The National, 7 July 2019

Şaban Kardaş, Uncertainty, Power, and Despite Turkey's assurances, U.S. still eyes sanctions, F-35 exit, Reuters, 3 July 2019 Rethinking Turkish-U.S. Relations after S- 400 Debacle, GMF On Turkey Brief No.12, 1 Klaudio Llusko, Is Trump Too Cool for August 2019 Istanbul? National Interest, 2 July 2019

Trump seeks to avoid slapping Turkey with NATO ally Turkey rebuffs US, poised to sanctions over missile deal, Aran News, 27 receive Russian weapons system, Stars and July 2019 Stripes, 1 July 2019

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Mehmet Yegin, Turkey between NATO and United Kingdom Russia: The Failed Balance - Turkey’s S-400 Purchase and Implications for Turkish Drone Wars published a report Relations with NATO, SWP Comment, No. reviewing over 250 large military 30, June 2019 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) crashes

New Pentagon Chief Confronts Turkey on globally over the past decade. Amidst NATO Debut, Military.com, 26 June 2019 plans to open UK airspace to drones, the report warns against the rise of Yasar Yakis, Turkey’s history of disputes UAVs and calls for public debate about with NATO allies, Arab News, 23 June 2019 the scope of uses of military UAVs in Ali Demirdas, Why is Turkey so Insistent on the UK. Buying Russian Missiles (And Missing Out on the F-35)? National Interest, 21 June It was reported that UK Special Forces 2019 are poised to receive a new mission

Turkey didn’t turn away from NATO by countering Russian and other forces purchasing Russian S-400s - Defence around the world. The plan is called Minister, Ahval, 21 June 2019 'Special Operations Concept' and has been drawn up by the senior officer in Semih Idiz, How will S-400 affair affect Turkish-NATO ties? Al Monitor, 20 June charge of the special forces, the 2019 Director Special Forces. The plan is currently being considered by military Is NATO's future at risk over US-Turkey rift?, chiefs, before being sent to ministers Deutsche Welle, 14 June 2019 for approval. Turkey Rejects U.S. Ultimatums, Vows Not To Back Down On Russia Missile Deal, Radio It was reported that the RAF's new Free Europe/ Radio liberty, 13 June 2019 £2.6billion transporter planes were

Nicholas Danforth, Containing the US- suffering from engine problems that Turkish Crisis After the S-400s, GMF On meant just two of the 20-strong fleet Turkey, 13 June 2019 are able to fly at any one time. The delay in bringing into service the new Muhittin Ataman, NATO lacks a rational A400M plane for the RAF and other outlook, Daily Sabah, 11 June 2019 partner nations led to a major Turkey and U.S. Defense Chiefs May Talk disagreement between Airbus, the Missiles at NATO Summit, Bloomberg, 10 aircraft manufacturer, and NATO June 2019 Ministers. US gives Turkey ultimatum on Russian missiles, BBC News, 9 June 2019 A Special Report by the Defence Select Committee claimed that Britain's Sebastien Roblin, This NATO Country Might defence spending has fallen below 2 Buy Russia's Stealth Fighter and S-400 System, National Interest, 8 June 2019 per cent and the MoD is using pension contributions to mask its true figure. Michael Johns and James Phillips, Turkey’s Although the government says it Arms Deal with Russia is an Affront to spends 2.1 per cent of GDP on defence, NATO, The Daily Signal. 6 June 2019 the new figures suggest Britain first Erdogan: No step back from S-400 deal with dipped below 2 per cent in 2014-15 Russia, Al Jazeera, 4 June 2019 and has not recovered since.

How U.S. Sanctions Over Russia’s S-400 Missile System Could Badly Rattle Turkey, The UK's new special cyber operations Haaretz, 3 June 2019 unit, 6th Division, will move beyond the typical cyber capabilities within the Turkey wary of NATO, U.S. plans for military sphere into full-blown social increased bases on Greece’s Aegean media "information warfare". Much of islands – expert, Ahval, 1 June 2019 the work of the new unit will be relatively traditional signals activities— jamming and intercepting enemy

36 comms, supporting the field world of The UK and Norway Shape Enhanced allied intelligence agencies. But the new Cooperation for ASW Operations in the unit also has an offensive and defensive North Atlantic, SLDinfo, 17 August 2019 propaganda remit—taking the social U.K. and Norway Reinforce Anti-Submarine media fight to Russia as well as state- Operations, The Maritime Executive, 17 sponsored terrorist groups. August 2019

A future independent Scotland could Faslane could yield £1.1bn a year for indy Scotland, expert claims, The National, 13 raise £1.1 billion a year by renting out August 2019 the Faslane nuclear base to NATO, according to a leading defence analyst. Cyber Warfare: Army Deploys 'Social Media Scotland could follow Iceland which Warfare' Division To Fight Russia, Forbes, 1 August 2019 leased its air force base to the United States from 1949 to 2006 to generate Army fights fake news with propagandists revenue in the first decades of and hackers in one unit, The Guardian, 31 becoming independent from Denmark. July 2019

Defence spending fell below Nato minimum In September, the UK Secretary of State four years ago says new report, The for International Trade said her Telegraph, 16 July 2019 department had “inadvertently” illegally approved two licences for the sale of Michael Peck, The UK Is Prepping Its Special Forces to Fight Russia's “Little Green Men”, military equipment to Saudi Arabia. The National Interest, 13 July 2019 transfers came only weeks after a verdict from the Court of Appeal, which RAF Nato row after 'totally unacceptable' concluded that the government had engine problems keep £2.6bn fleet on the ground, The Telegraph, 10 July 2019 acted “irrationally” and “unlawfully” by continuing to arm the ongoing Saudi- Royal Navy Type 45 destroyer arrives in led bombardment of Yemen. As a result Ukraine for Nato exercises, Naval of the verdict, the government was Technology, 8 July 2019 ordered not to approve any new UK Defense Secretary: We Need a Stronger licences to Saudi for use in Yemen and NATO Now More Than Ever, Defense One, 5 to retake all the decisions on existing July 2019 licences in a legally compliant manner. Conrad Prince and James Sullivan, The UK Cyber Strategy: Challenges for the Next Andrew Smith, How is it possible for the Phase, RUSI Briefing Paper, June 2019 government to claim it sold military equipment to Saudi Arabia ‘accidentally’?, The Independent, 18 September 2019 “We all know this is a great country. Sadly, it’s one currently very poorly led Liz Truss apologises for 'inadvertent' by a political elite, some masquerading breaches of ban on Saudi arms sales, Sky as non-elite, which has great difficulties News, 17 September 2019 discerning and telling the truth. I am David Larter, As Britain lurches toward discouraged by just how badly Brexit Brexit, how will European security fare? has been handled to date, and currently Defense News, 9 September 2019 pessimistic that this is going to get any British-Based Submarine Rescue System To better any time soon.” - Ivan Rogers, Be Tested In NATO Exercise, Forces former UK ambassador to the EU Network, 4 September 2019 UK led towards no-deal Brexit by untruthful The Royal Edinburgh Military Tattoo elite, says ex-EU envoy, The Guardian, 18 celebrates NATO’s 70th Anniversary, NATO June 2019 News Release, 27 August 2019

Billions of pounds worth of weapons have UK's special forces set for new Russia been licensed by the UK to Saudi Arabia mission, BBC News, 13 June 2019 since start of Yemen war, The Independent, 21 August 2019

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British special forces to get new mission to Russia 25%, Saudi Arabia 25% and the counter state actors, The Guardian, 13 US 22%. June 2019

Wyn Rees and Lance Davies, The Anglo- An article in the Bulletin of the Atomic American military relationship: Institutional Scientists found that most Americans rules, practices, and narratives, do not support pre-emptive war against Contemporary Security Policy, Vol. 40 North Korea. But about a third do, even No.3, 2019, pp.312-334 when US use of nuclear weapons could be expected to kill 1 million North Korean civilians. Based on the results of United States a public opinion survey conducted this An opinion poll from the Center for year the findings also suggested that International Security Studies at the Americans are deeply misinformed University in May found that vast about US offensive and defensive majority expressed support for the military capabilities, including the extension of the New START Treaty that ability to find and destroy North Korean limits the number of strategic nuclear nuclear weapons without a ground weapons that the US and Russia can invasion and whether missile defence deploy, and the preservation of the would be certain to protect against Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces North Korean nuclear missiles. Treaty (INF Treaty). There are only nineteen years since The Pentagon believes using nuclear 1789 when the United States did not weapons could “create conditions for have armed forces engaged in military decisive results and the restoration of operations abroad, according to a July strategic stability”, according to a new report from the Congressional nuclear doctrine adopted by the US Research Service: Instances of Use of joint chiefs of staff in June. The United States Armed Forces Abroad, document, entitled Nuclear Operations, 1798-2019. The most recent year in is the first such doctrine paper for 14 which US military forces were not used years. Arms control experts say it in a foreign conflict was 1979, marks a shift in US military thinking according to the report. The CRS towards the idea of fighting and account does not reflect covert action, winning a nuclear war. The document disaster relief or training activities was taken down from the Pentagon involving US forces abroad. online site after a week, and is now only available through a restricted access In August, the head of the Pentagon’s electronic library. But before it was Special Operations Command, Gen. withdrawn it was downloaded by the Richard D. Clarke, ordered a wide- Federation of American Scientists. ranging review into the culture and ethics of the elite military forces, after The United States has joined Russia, several reports of drug use, violence Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran in a and other misconduct. “Recent rogue’s gallery of countries perceived incidents have called our culture and as likely to use their influence for bad. ethics into question and threaten the All five countries are also seen as less trust placed in us”, General Clarke said likely to use their influence for good in a letter to all Special Operations than they were 10 years ago, according forces. “This trust is paramount and to an opinion poll conducted amongst must never be compromised”, he 17,000 adults in 24 countries on behalf added. of Policy Institute at Kings College London. It shows Iran as the country NATO’s Not Ready For Saudi-Style Drone seen as most likely to use its influence Attacks; ‘It’s A Serious Problem’, Breaking Defense, 23 September 2019 for bad, 31% followed by Israel 24%,

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Must Read: Danny Sjursen, Just When I Must Read: William J. Astore, The Riptide Thought It Couldn't Get Any Worse…A of American Militarism: Lessons from the Veteran in a World of Never-Ending Wars Natural World on Washington’s Unnatural and Improvised Explosive Devices, Wars, TomDispatch, 9 July 2019 TomDispatch, 22 September 2019 Biden warns 'there will be no NATO' if William Astore, The Ultra-Costly, Trump wins re-election, Politico, 5 July Underwhelming F-35 Fighter: Lockheed 2019 Martin Remains Top Gun in the Pentagon's Jan Techau, Trump Calls Off Airstrikes Cockpit, TomDispatch, 15 September 2019 Against Iran…For Now?, GMF Commentary, Survey finds American support strong for 2 July 2019 NATO, mixed on overseas bases, Stars and Tom Engelhardt, We’re Not the Good Guys: Stripes, 10 September 2019 Why Is American Aggression Missing in US-Iran Dispute Brings Attention to Military Action?, TomDispatch, 2 July 2019 Bases in Middle East, VOA, 6 September Geoffrey S. Corn, The Aborted Iran Strike: 2019 The Fine Line Between Necessity and Mattis details differences with Trump over Revenge, Lawfare, 25 June 2019 Nato allies and torture in new book, The Alida R. Haworth, Scott D. Sagan & Guardian, 28 August 2019 Benjamin A. Valentino, What do Americans Mattis warns of 'storm clouds gathering' really think about conflict with nuclear without commitment to allies, The Hill, 28 North Korea? The answer is both reassuring August 2019 and disturbing, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 75 No.4, 2019, pp. 179-186 Commandos’ Behavior Prompts Pentagon Review of Special Operations Culture, New US joins four rogue countries seen as likely York Times, 12 August 2019 forces for bad, poll finds, The Guardian, 20 June 2019 NATO says it’s not preparing for an unlikely US withdrawal, Military Times, 8 August Nuclear weapons: experts alarmed by new 2019 Pentagon 'war-fighting' doctrine, The Guardian, 19 June 2019 Nia Harris, Cassandra Stimpson and Ben Freeman, More Money, Fewer Jobs: The John Mecklin, US-Iran standoff: almost too Stubborn Truth About Employment and the worrisome for words, Bulletin of the Atomic Defense, Industry, TomDispatch, 4 August Scientists, 17 June 17, 2019 2019 Robert Chesney, U.S. Cyber Command and American to Lead NATO Intelligence as the Russian Grid: Proportional Iraq-War-Era Concerns About U.S. Linger, Countermeasures, Statutory Authorities New York Times, 18 July 2019 and Presidential Notification, Lawfare, 17 June 2019 Secretary General Cites NATO Unity as Alliance's Best Deterrent, US Department of Asha C. Castleberry and Ashley D. Burrell, Defense, 18 July 2019 U.S. Leadership on Foreign Policy: Establish a Caucus on NATO and Transatlantic William Hartung, Merger Mania: The Security, National Interest, 8 June 2019 Military-Industrial Complex on Steroids, TomDispatch, 16 July 2019 FY2020 National Security Space Budget Request: An Overview, Congressional American Commandos Gear Up for New Research Service, 7 June 2019 Shadow War with Russia, New York Times, 12 July 2019 William J. Astore, The American Cult of Bombing and Endless War: Ten Tenets of Michael T. Klare, The Missing Three-Letter Air Power That I Didn’t Learn in the Air Word in the Iran Crisis: Oil’s Enduring Sway Force, TomDispatch, 4 June 2019 in U.S. Policy in the Middle East, TomDispatch, 11 July 2019 Transatlantic Relations: U.S. Interests and Key Issues, Congressional Research Vishnu Kannan, What Really Happened in Service, 31 May 2019 the Cyber Command Action Against Iran? Lawfare, 11 July 2019

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Current US nuclear weapons industry civilian Climate change is a life-threatening jobs v. potential US renewable energy emergency on a global scale. It requires industry jobs under a Green New Deal an immediate and comprehensive response commensurate with the threat it poses to human civilization and to the planet. The same is no less true of the global, life-threatening emergency posed by the continued existence of nuclear weapons. Inequality is also a life-threatening global emergency that must be addressed as we address these other two emergencies.

A Green New Deal would set in motion a national mobilization in the United States to completely turn an economy based on fossil fuels into one based on renewable forms of energy.

That means a massive effort to transform things in the next 10 years, followed by steady progress towards the end goal of net-zero carbon emissions globally by 2050. Source: nuclear ban.US 2019

The United States can and should move swiftly toward this very ambitious but necessary target. This will require: IDEAS, FEEDBACK,

SUGGESTIONS? 1. Major investment from the federal government on the order of $3 trillion Ideas, feedback, suggestions? We want to over the next 30 years, or $100 billion hear from you. Please contact us at NATO Watch with any news and stories for the per year. Observatory, as well as feedback or

2. Massive transfer of skills, expertise, suggestions. technologies and infrastructure from the nuclear weapons industry to green DONATE NOW PLEASE technologies. NATO Watch is a small non-profit organisation 3. A complete shift in our relations with that provides independent oversight and analysis of an ever-growing NATO. But with the rest of the world and in the way we tightly stretched resources we struggle to treat other countries. consistently and continually function as an effective ‘watchdog’. The obvious places to find the money If you share our vision for a transparent and and the skills needed for a GND are in accountable NATO please donate whatever you the military industrial complex, and can afford to help NATO Watch thrive. Click on especially in the nuclear weapons the picture below to find out how you can make industry. Eliminating nuclear weapons a donation. would also radically change our relationship with the rest of the world.

Timmon Wallis, Warheads to Windmills: How to pay for a Green New Deal, Nuclear Ban US, 2019

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