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Euro/Atlantica (USA-NATO-Partners) Gianluca Pastori

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Euro/Atlantica (USA-NATO-Partners) Gianluca Pastori Euro/Atlantica (USA-NATO-Partners) Gianluca Pastori NATO at seventy: the challenges for 2019 The Atlantic Alliance approaches the seventieth anniversary of the Treaty of Washington (April 4, 2019) coming from a troublesome period. The summit of the Heads of State and Government held in Brussels on June 11-12, 2018, seems not having been able to dissipate the doubts that in the last two years have emerged on NATO’s future. During the summit, the press and the analysts expressed in different forms the same concern: that the organization was on the path of a quick decline (if not of disappearance) due to the US will to reduce its engagement. The summit led to several results. The new Republic of North Macedonia (FYROM) was officially invited to start the accession talks, although the failure on the non-binding referendum on the country’s name could make things difficult. The commitment in Afghanistan and Iraq was reaffirmed, extending operation Resolute Support to 2024 and announcing the starting of a mission in support of Baghdad’s authorities. Measures were announced to face the new hybrid challenges (including propaganda, disinformation and malicious cyber activities) and to increase force readiness through the so-called “four-thirty” program. Finally, three new commands have been established: a Cyber Operations Center (CYOC) in Mons (Belgium), a Joint Force Command for the Atlantic in Norfolk (Virginia, US) and a Joint Support and Enabling Command (JSEC) in Ulm (Germany)1. In the following months, rumors on a possible US withdrawal from Afghanistan have been a source of tension within the Alliance. However, Washington has remarked that «any potential U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan» (also connected to the talks currently undergoing to reach an agreement with the insurgent forces operating in the country) «would be “coordinated” with other NATO members», and that from Afghanistan (which, according to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg «remains a [NATO] top priority»2) «there will be no unilateral troop reduction»3. The “Trident Juncture 2018” exercise (TJ18, October 25-November 23, in two parts, the first one, on the ground, until November 7, the second one, computer assisted, since November 14) was another important moment, due to both the quality and quantity of the assets that the thirty-one participating countries deployed, and its overall political value. TJ18’s political relevance was enhanced by the participation of two neutral countries (although increasingly close to the Atlantic Alliance) such as Sweden and Finland. According to Admiral James G. Foggo III, US Commander of the Allied Joint Force Command Naples and Commander of the exercise, the aim of TJ18 was to «show the world that NATO is relevant, united and ready to defend itself in this Article 5 scenario, testing our collective defence»4. An almost similar position was expressed – soon before the opening of the exercise – by Secretary General Stoltenberg, who labelled TJ18 a response to the deterioration of the current European security environment and a message sent «to any potential 1 Brussels Summit Declaration. Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Brussels 11-12 July 2018, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_156624.htm. 2 Opening remarks by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the North Atlantic Council meeting on NATO's operations at the level of Defence Ministers, [Brussels], Feb. 14, 2019, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_ 163392.htm?selectedLocale=en 3 U.S. Vows ‘No Unilateral’ Troop Reduction In Afghanistan, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Feb. 14, 2019, https://www. rferl.org/a/nato-allies-discuss-afghan-mission-s-future-after-proposed-u-s-withdrawal/29769700.html. On the European fears of a possible US disengagement, see J. Marson - J. Donati, As Allies Grapple with U.S. Pressure on NATO, Europe Pleads for Caution in Afghanistan, “The Wall Street Journal”, Feb. 19, 2019, https://www.wsj. com/articles/as-allies-grapple-with-trumps-nato-insults-europe-pleads-for-caution-in-afghanistan-11550582842. 4 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/157833.htm. Osservatorio Strategico 2018– Year XX issue III 8 Euro/Atlantica (USA-NATO-Partners) adversary» regarding the Alliance's determination in protecting the North Atlantic territory from any possible aggression5. Perceived by Moscow as another proof of NATO’s hostile attitude towards Russia, the exercise has been, from many points of view, a demonstration of the Alliance’s unity around its core business, i.e. the principle of collective security. Collective security has always been at the foundations of NATO and has never been abandoned, not event in early 1990s, when, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Alliance started its transformation process. What have changed during the years have been the ways in which this principle was applied. The Strategic concepts adopted in 1991 (Rome), 1999 (Washington), and 2010 (Lisbon) have been the tools of such an evolution. However, behind them, the real engine of the change has been the members’ common will; a will that, in most recent years, seems lacking. It has been widely pointed out the role that the perception of a Russian threat on the Alliance’s eastern border has had in fueling this process. The pressure that Moscow exerts along the borders of its former “external empire” increases the demand for security expressed by the neighboring NATO countries, pushing the Alliance to (re)assume a “cold war” posture which, in its turn, Russia exploits to legitimate its initiatives. The consequence is a growing attention – on both sides – to hard security, as attested by the freezing of all NATO-Russia Council activities with the exception of the ones related to «a periodic, focused and meaningful political dialogue with Russia on the basis of reciprocity, as agreed at the NATO Summit in Warsaw in July 2016»6. On the need to re-focus on a Russian threat perceived as growing a relatively strong consensus is emerging, at least in Europe. This idea is behind the words of the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), General Curtis Scaparrotti, on the need to improve collective defense and NATO’s ability to deter adversaries, or behind the words of NATO’s current Deputy Secretary General, Ambassador Rose Gottemoeller, on the «unacceptable pattern of behavior» held by Moscow in recent years7. More difficult is dealing with the other priorities that, during the time, NATO have piled up, due partly to the changes of the international system, partly as a heritage of its previous activities. There is an inherent tension between the NATO “projected out of area” existing until the beginning of the Ukraine crisis and its return, since 2014, to a posture “vigilant and prepared”, following what the Alliance, in its statements, regularly calls the «illegal and illegitimate annexation of Crimea by Russia»8. This tension emerges at different levels and is strengthened by the need to keep a watchful eye on the evolution of the security environment and on the new emerging threats. In face of limited (although increasing) resources, the proliferation of new missions and tasks can only heighten rivalries, in a process that, in its turns, over-emphasizes the issue of burden sharing. The Trump administration has made the issue of burden sharing one of its battle horses. In 2014, at the end of the summit held in Celtic Manor, the Allies formalized the (previously informal) commitment to devote 2 percent of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defense expenditure and to devote 20 percent of the sum to the acquisition of new equipment. In Celtic Manor, it was also agreed a “convergence commitment”, binding the countries below the threshold to reach it in a ten years period9. 5 NATO Secretary General briefs on exercise Trident Juncture, Oct. 24, 2018, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_ 159663.htm. 6 https://www.nato.int/cps/fr/natohq/topics_50091.htm?selectedLocale=en. 7 Speech by NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller at the conference “Resourcing a Coherent and Credible Alliance” at l’École Militaire in Paris, Oct. 16, 2018, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_159471.htm; on General Scaparrotti’s position, see A. Shahlal, U.S. top commander in Europe wants more resources, forces to deter Russia, “Reuters”, May 24, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-security/us-top-commander-in-europe- wants -more-resources-forces-to-deter-russia-idUSKCN1IP3IG. 8 See, for example, NATO Allies and partners discuss Ukraine crisis, Mar. 11, 2015, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/ news_118114.htm. 9 Wales Summit Declaration. Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Wales, Sept. 5, 2014, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_112964.htm Osservatorio Strategico 2018– Year XX issue III 9 NATO at seventy: the challenges for 2019 Five out of the then twenty-eight NATO members reached the target in 2015. In 2018, of present day twenty-nine members (Parliament of Montenegro ratified the country’s entry into NATO on April 28, 2017), eight are about to reach it, while six others have adopted measures to do it by 2024, in most of the cases by implementing large-scale procurement programs10. However, it has been recently pointed out that reaching the 2/20 quantitative target “in itself” could be misleading if not framed into a wider effort «to make efficient and effective use of […] resources rather than seek random increases in spending, or unplanned acquisition of a military weapon system that does not contribute to increased national defense capability»11. The adoption of the Brussels Summit Declaration seems following this path. The Declaration not only starts the above-mentioned “four-thirty” program (“NATO Readiness Initiative”) aimed at having, by 2020, 30 battalions; 30 air squadrons; and 30 naval combat vessels ready to use within 30 days or less.
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