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Burundi Economic Outlook 2016 the Story Behind the Numbers

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Burundi Economic Outlook 2016 the Story Behind the Numbers Burundi Economic Outlook 2016 The Story Behind the Numbers Disclaimer This publication contains general information only, and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or its and their affiliates are, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services. This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your finances or your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your finances or your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. None of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or its and their respective affiliates shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this publication. 2 | Economic Outlook 2016 Preamble The Burundi Economic Outlook 2016 report provides an overview of Burundi’s economic environment and key sectors. The report also highlights significant allocations from the 2016/17 budget to various sectors in the country. June 2016 Economic Outlook 2016 | 3 Burundi Economic Review Political overview from 1.1% of GDP in 2014 as foreign donors suspend support to the The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) projects political instability in country due to the current political instability. The Burundi government Burundi to continue throughout 2016 and 2017. Civil unrest broke out indicated through its draft budget passed in December 2015 that it in the country since the re-election of Pierre Nkurunziza as President in anticipated a 44% decline in aid grants over 2016. According to the July 2015 for a third consecutive five-year term in office. The unrest is BMI, donor aid represents approximately 50% of the country’s budget. led by armed opposition groups who claim the President’s re-election contravenes the two-term presidential limit that was introduced as The Bank of the Republic of Burundi (BRB)’s main objective is to part of the Arusha Accords which ended the country’s 1993-2005 civil maintain price stability and to contributed towards the stability of the war. According to the EIU, violence will escalate in 2016 as the armed country’s financial system. The EIU predicts that BRB will maintain a opposition groups become better organised. restrictive policy stance in 2016 despite a weakness in economic activity so as to contain inflation and reduce excessive exchange rate volatility. The EIU notes that Burundi’s relations with Western donors who play a key role in financing its budget and public investment programme have BMI predicts that the current account deficit in Burundi will increase deteriorated in light of the country’s civil unrest. The European Union to 20.8% of GDP in 2016 from 18.1% in 2015 due to suspension of (EU), the country’s largest foreign aid donor, announced in March 2016 foreign donor aid and the country’s weak export base. According to that it would suspended the direct financial support it gives to Burundi. BMI, goods and services exports in Burundi will constitute 10.7% of In April 2016, the permanent council of the International Organisation GDP on average per year over 2016 and 2017 due to an undiversified of La Francophonie (IOF) also suspended aid to the country. The BMI export offering. The country’s goods and services exports are therefore however notes that suspension of donor aid will not necessarily bring unlikely to boost its declining current account the unrest in the country to a stop. Economic overview According to the EIU, agriculture is the largest contributor to Burundi’s economy, making a contributing 40% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and employing more than 80% of Burundians. The EIU notes that political disruption will negatively affect the sector’s growth in 2016 but improving security conditions in 2017 could lead to an increase Burundi’s overall agricultural output. The EIU anticipates industrial growth in Burundi to be supported by nickel production at the Musongati mine but undermined by cuts in donor aid that will reduce construction activity since many of the country’s infrastructure projects are dependent on foreign aid. BMI forecasts the country’s fiscal deficit to rise to 5.6% of GDP in 2016 4 | Economic Outlook 2016 Chart 1: Real GDP growth rates (%) GDP According to the BMI, Burundi will post an economic growth of 1.1% in 2016 and a growth of 1.5% in 2017 5% due to subdued private consumption and contraction of fixed investment in the country. Burundi’s economic growth 3% contracted by an estimated 7% in 2015 due to the political disruption that affected all sectors of the country’s economy. 1% Given that private consumption in Burundi constitutes 0% an estimated 75% of GDP, BMI projects that economic growth in the country will be weighed down by low private -2% consumption that will average of 2.3% in 2016 and 2017 as domestic unrest will reduce employment opportunities of -4% Real GDP growth (%) Burundians. BMI forecasts that fixed investment in Burundi will contract -6% on average by 1.0% per year over 2016 and 2017 as unrest discourages investment by both the public sector and -8% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 foreign investors. According to the BMI, the government‘s involvement in the domestic unrest during 2015 and 2016 highlights its stance on opposition and expect it to continue Source: Business Monitor International (BMI) redirecting funds towards recurrent spending in order to maintain control. 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Inflation rate 1% Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 20% Economic Outlook 2016 5 | 15% 10% 5% 0% Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Lending rates 91 day T-bill rates Deposit rates 2000 BIF/USD BIF/USD 1800 BIF/USD 1600 BIF/USD 1400 BIF/USD 2014 2015 2016 2017 5% 3% 5% 1% 3%0% 1%-2% 0% -4% Real GDP growth (%) -2% -6% -4% Real GDP growth (%) -8% -6% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -8% Inflation Chart2013 2: Annual2014 2015consumer2016 price2017 inflation2018 rates2019 (%) 2020 Trading Economics reported that Burundi had single digit inflation rates in 2015. Inflation reduced from 4.7% in March 8% 2015 to 4.3% in March 2016. 7% According to BMI, food, housing and utilities constitute 8% 6% 61.0% of the total consumption basket used in computing Burundi’s consumer price index. BMI expect inflation in Bu- 7% 5% rundi to average 7% per year for the next four years as rising 6% 4% food prices stabilise and as low international oil prices keep 5% 3% fuel prices subdued. 4% 2% Inflation rate BMI anticipates that the low inflationary conditions in Burundi 3% 1% will facilitate an environment in which the BRB will strength- Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 en its policy effectiveness through improved data collection. 2% Inflation rate According to BMI, these improvements will strengthen policy 1% Source: Trading Economics effectiveness but the transmission mechanism will however Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 remain weak due to low banking penetration, thin financial markets and a weak private sector. 20% Interest rates Chart 3: Interest rates in Burundi (%) 15% According to data released by BRB, lending rates in Burundi 20% remained relatively stable between October 2014 and October 2015 averaging 17%. Deposit rates also remained 15%10% relatively stable in the period averaging 9%. The 91 day T-bill rates on the other hand averaged 5% 10% 5% between October 2014 and April 2015 before increasing to 12% in October 2015. BMI notes that this increase is 0% consistent with the increase in BRB’s operational target of M2 5% Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 money supply which acts as the its operational target that grew by 6.3% year-on-year in September 2015. BRB makes Lending rates 91 day T-bill rates Deposit rates 0% use of indirect instruments such as T-bills to control money Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 supply within the economy as a means to control inflation. Lending rates 91 day T-bill rates Deposit rates Source: Bank of the Republic of Burundi 2000 BIF/USD BIF/USD 6 Economic Outlook 2016 | 2000 BIF/USD 1800 BIF/USD BIF/USD 1800 BIF/USD 1600 BIF/USD 1600 BIF/USD 1400 BIF/USD 2014 2015 2016 2017 1400 BIF/USD 2014 2015 2016 2017 5% 3% 1% 0% -2% -4% Real GDP growth (%) -6% -8% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Inflation rate 1% Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Exchange20% rates The EIU projects the Burundi franc (BIF) to depreciate by 9% against the US dollar (USD) between 2015 and 2017. EIU anticipates the BIF will weaken15% to BIF 1,709 against the dollar in 2017 from BIF 1,572 in 2015. The EIU notes that pressure on the BIF reflects Burundi’s twin fiscal and current10% account deficits and the country’s reducing foreign aid inflows caused by the ongoing civil strife and political instability. According5% to the EIU, the BIF has not depreciated sharply between 2015 and 2016 due to the ability of BRB to smooth exchange rate variations with foreign reserves. EIU however notes that the country’s 0% foreign reservesOct-14 that Dec-provide14 1.5Feb- months15 importApr-15 coverJun- are15 not sufficientAug-15 Oct-15 to smooth the country’s exchange rates going forward given that the International MonetaryLending r atesFund (IMF)91 recommends day T-bill rates countriesDeposit to have rates a minimum of 3 months of import cover.
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