Statistical Bulletin September 2021
2020 Mid-Year Population Estimates: Ward level population in Kent Related This bulletin presents the 2020 Mid-Year documents Population Estimates at ward level as The Population and published by the Office for National Census web page Statistics on 16 September 2021. contains more information which you may find useful. Summary of findings
Population forecasts • The average population size of a ward in Kent in presents the latest 2020 was 5,860 people. thinking about future population levels. • The ward with the largest population is Barton in Canterbury with 14,2700 people. The ward with 2011 Census provides the smallest population is Ebbsfleet in Dartford information of the with 1,120 people. characteristics of the population. • In Kent, 153 wards (56%) have seen a growth in population in the past 12 months. The remaining NOTE: within this bulletin ’Kent’ refers to the Kent 44% have all experienced a reduction in County Council (KCC) area population. which excludes Medway • Greenhithe & Knockhall ward in Dartford has Further Information seen the highest increase in absolute terms with an additional 828 people. Ebbsfleet saw the Kent Analytics Kent County Council largest percentage increase in population with Invicta House 11.9% (119 people) Maidstone Kent • Park Farm South ward in Ashford experienced ME14 1XX the greatest decrease in population in absolute and percentage terms with a loss of 169 people (5.8%) Email: [email protected] • 73% of the Kent population live in urban areas but they only occupy 21% of the total land area. Tel: 03000 417444 The remaining 27% of the population live in rural areas but occupy 79% of the land in Kent.
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Introduction
Mid-Year Population Estimates, or MYPE are produced by the Office for National Statistics and are derived from a census population count and each year are rolled forward (people aged by one year) allowing for changes recorded for births, deaths and migration. Additional allowances are made to model the transient population such as students and personnel from the armed forces. This modelling process provides fairly robust data for larger areas of geography but the margin for error is larger for small areas, which is why these ward level MYPE are classed as ‘experimental statistics’.
Note on the data
It is ONS policy to present all estimates rounded to the nearest hundred at local authority level and to the nearest ten at ward level. Within this bulletin all mid-year estimates have been individually rounded and therefore may not sum. Percentages have been calculated using unrounded numbers.
The data in this bulletin will be updated in Autumn 2022 when the 2021 Mid-Year Population Estimates will be released.
Rural and urban classification
The ‘2011 Rural Urban Classification for Small Area Geographies’ or RUC for short was released in August 2013.
The RUC was developed for a consortium of government agencies for use with the 2001 Census and revised following the 2011 Census for a similar consortium including the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG), the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), the Office of National Statistics (ONS) and the Welsh Government (WG).
The wards which came into effect in May 2015 in Canterbury, Folkestone & Hythe, Swale and Tonbridge & Malling, and the wards which came into effect in May 2019 in Ashford, Dartford and Dover have been categorised by matching the new boundaries with the 2011 boundaries on a best fit basis by Strategic Commissioning - Analytics at Kent County Council.
There are eight separate classifications for wards which are grouped into either Urban or Rural types as illustrated in Figure1:
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Figure 1: 2011 rural-urban classification of 2011 electoral wards in England and Wales A1 = Urban major conurbation B1 = Urban minor conurbation Urban C1 = Urban city and town C2 = Urban city and town in a sparse setting D1 = Rural town and fringe D2 = Rural town and fringe in a sparse setting Rural E1 = Rural village and dispersed E2 = Rural village and dispersed in a sparse setting
Urban totals are created from all wards classified as A1, B1, C1 and C2 and rural totals are created by adding together data for wards classified as D1, D2, (town and fringe) and E1 and E2 (rural village). Kent and Medway wards are categorised as A1, C1, D1 and E1. These are illustrated in Map 1.
Within this bulletin and in the ward profiles we group the wards into urban and rural areas and identify individual towns such as Maidstone, Tonbridge and Canterbury plus smaller rural settlements such as Tenterden, Pembury and Sandwich. For further information on the Rural Urban Classification (RUC) 2011 please visit the Office for National Statistics website. www.statistics.gov.uk
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Rural and urban area population
The number of people living in urban areas within Kent in 2020 was just over 1.1million. This is a rise of +4,200 people (+0.4%) since 2019. In 2020 the population living in rural areas was 433,400 people. This is a rise of +3,300 people, (+0.8%) since 2019.
People living in urban areas make up 73% of the Kent population but they only occupy 21% of the total land area. The remaining 27% of the population live in rural areas but occupy 79% of the land in Kent.
See Tables 1, 2 and 3 for more detail
Table 1: Kent's urban and rural population 2019 MYPE 2020 MYPE change
% of total 2020 MYPE Population % of Kent Population % of Kent number % Area (Ha) land area Density Total Urban Areas 1,151,400 73% 1,155,600 73% 4,200 0.4% 75,896 21% 15.23 Total Rural Areas 430,100 27% 433,400 27% 3,300 0.8% 278,543 79% 1.56
Total Kent 1,581,600 1,589,100 7,500 0.5% 354,494 4.48 Table 2: Urban population of each Kent local authority district 2019 MYPE 2020 MYPE change
Number of Urban % of Total Urban % of Total 2020 MYPE Kent Urban Areas wards Population population Population population number % Area (Ha) Density Ashford 23 82,140 63% 82,510 63% 370 0.5% 5,262 15.68 Canterbury 16 136,960 83% 137,890 83% 930 0.7% 9,843 14.01 Dartford 17 99,060 88% 100,550 88% 1,500 1.5% 5,258 19.13 Dover 11 75,880 64% 75,960 64% 80 0.1% 6,142 12.37 Gravesham 13 86,740 77% 86,740 81% 0 0.0% 2,317 37.43 Maidstone 18 128,110 120% 128,710 74% 600 0.5% 10,313 12.48 Sevenoaks 12 63,160 37% 63,500 52% 340 0.5% 5,042 12.59 Folkestone & Hythe 8 71,480 59% 71,750 63% 270 0.4% 4,855 14.78 Swale 16 105,560 70% 106,160 70% 600 0.6% 7,320 14.50 Thanet 22 134,330 95% 133,730 95% -600 -0.4% 4,529 29.53 Tonbridge & Malling 17 92,870 70% 92,860 70% -10 -0.0% 8,416 11.03 Tunbridge Wells 11 75,140 63% 75,270 63% 130 0.2% 5,597 13.45
Kent Urban Total 184 1,151,400 73% 1,155,600 73% 4,200 0.4% 74,893 15.43 Table 3: Rural population of each Kent local authority district 2019 MYPE 2020 MYPE change
Number of Urban % of Total Urban % of Total 2020 MYPE Kent Rural Areas wards Population population Population population number % Area (Ha) Density Ashford 16 47,890 37% 48,510 37% 610 1.3% 52,799 0.92 Canterbury 5 28,430 17% 28,880 17% 440 1.6% 21,032 1.37 Dartford 3 13,550 12% 13,500 12% -50 -0.4% 2,015 6.70 Dover 6 42,250 36% 42,560 36% 310 0.7% 25,392 1.68 Gravesham 5 20,200 18% 20,150 19% -50 -0.3% 7,582 2.66 Maidstone 8 43,720 41% 44,420 26% 700 1.6% 29,020 1.53 Sevenoaks 14 57,590 34% 57,890 48% 300 0.5% 30,878 1.87 Folkestone & Hythe 5 41,520 34% 41,570 37% 60 0.1% 30,837 1.35 Swale 8 44,520 30% 44,860 30% 330 0.8% 30,024 1.49 Thanet 1 7,590 5% 7,730 5% 140 1.8% 5,832 1.32 Tonbridge & Malling 7 39,280 30% 39,710 30% 430 1.1% 15,595 2.55 Tunbridge Wells 9 43,590 37% 43,670 37% 80 0.2% 27,536 1.59 Kent Rural Total 87 430,100 27% 433,400 27% 3,300 0.8% 278,543 1.56 Source: 2020 MYPE for wards, (experimental statistics released 16 September 2020):Office for National Statistics (ONS), © Crown Copyright Presented by Kent Analytics, Kent County Council Density is the number of persons per hectare which is calculated by dividing the population by the area. All district estimates have been individually rounded to the nearest 100 for presentation so may not sum when added. The Rural Urban Classification (RUC 2011): DCLG, DEFRA, ONS, and the Welsh Government
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Data for individual wards is grouped into other useful geographies such as urban and rural settlements. The population of these individual areas are presented in the relevant local authority tables throughout this bulletin.
However, Table 4 ranks the settlements from the most populated through to the least, to give an indication of the settlement hierarchy in Kent. Figures for Medway are presented separately on page 19.
Table 4: Urban Area and Rural Settlement Summary Ranked in order of most populated as at 2020 change 2020 MYPE 2019 MYPE 2020 MYPE number % Area (Ha) Density
Maidstone Urban Area 128,110 128,710 600 0.5% 10,313 12.48 Dartford Urban Area 99,060 100,550 1,500 1.5% 5,258 19.13 Gravesend/Northfleet Urban Area 86,740 86,740 0 0.0% 2,317 37.43 Ashford Urban Area 82,140 82,510 370 0.5% 5,262 15.68 Tunbridge Wells/Southborough Urban Area 75,140 75,270 130 0.2% 5,597 13.45
Canterbury Urban Area 64,460 65,330 870 1.4% 4,472 14.61 Folkestone Urban Area 53,950 54,130 180 0.3% 1,626 33.29 Margate Urban Area 54,450 54,130 -330 -0.6% 1,423 38.03 Medway Gap Urban Area 50,110 50,110 10 0.0% 4,816 10.41 Sittingbourne Urban Area 47,230 47,420 200 0.4% 1,661 28.56 Dover Urban Area 46,090 46,210 120 0.3% 4,902 9.43 West Sheppey Urban Area 45,560 45,790 220 0.5% 9,096 5.03 Ramsgate Urban Area 43,800 43,660 -140 -0.3% 1,240 35.20 Tonbridge Urban Area 42,760 42,750 -20 -0.0% 3,600 11.87 Herne Bay Urban Area 38,370 38,560 190 0.5% 2,347 16.43 Whitstable Urban Area 34,130 34,000 -140 -0.4% 3,024 11.24 Deal Urban Area 29,790 29,740 -50 -0.2% 1,240 23.99 Sevenoaks Urban Area 27,730 28,060 330 1.2% 2,151 13.05 Broadstairs Urban Area 25,830 25,710 -110 -0.4% 1,133 22.70 Swanley Urban Area 23,440 23,540 100 0.4% 913 25.77 Faversham Urban Area 20,110 20,200 100 0.5% 1,115 18.13 Hythe Urban Area 17,530 17,620 80 0.5% 3,229 5.46 Hartley & New Ash Green 11,990 11,900 -90 -0.7% 1,978 6.02 Aylesham Rural Settlement 10,820 11,080 260 2.4% 3,647 3.04 Birchington Urban Area 10,260 10,240 -20 -0.2% 733 13.97 Edenbridge Rural Settlement 9,770 9,960 200 2.0% 2,203 4.52 Paddock Wood Rural Settlement 8,120 8,170 50 0.6% 983 8.32 Benenden & Cranbrook Rural Settlement 7,940 7,950 20 0.2% 5,409 1.47 New Romney Rural Settlement 7,380 7,360 -20 -0.3% 647 11.37 Dymchurch and St.Mary's bay 7,380 7,340 -30 -0.4% 5,284 1.39 Tenterden Rural Settlement 6,970 6,990 20 0.2% 2,053 3.41 Sandwich Rural Settlement 6,640 6,620 -20 -0.3% 3,028 2.19 Staplehurst Rural Settlement 6,240 6,350 110 1.8% 2,387 2.66 Pembury Rural Settlement 6,040 6,030 -10 -0.1% 1,435 4.20 Total Population - Urban Areas & Rural Settlements 1,236,050 1,240,730 4,690 0.4% 106,520 11.65 Total Population - Kent 1,581,560 1,589,060 7,500 0.5% 354,494 4.48
Source: 2020 MYPE for wards, (experimental statistics released 16 September 2020):Office for National Statistics (ONS), © Crown Copyright Presented by Kent Analytics, Kent County Council All ward estimates have been individually rounded to the nearest 10 for presentation so may not sum when added. All district estimates have been individually rounded to the nearest 100 for presentation so may not sum when added. The Rural Urban Classification (RUC 2011): DCLG, DEFRA, ONS, and the Welsh Government
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Map 2 illustrates the percentage population change of all wards in Kent and Medway between Mid-2019 and Mid-2020.
Map 3 illustrates the population density of each Kent and Medway ward based on the 2020 Mid-year population estimates
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2020 Mid-year Ward level population estimates change
2019 2020 2020 MYPE Ashford Borough Council MYPE MYPE number % Area (Ha) Density Total 39 Wards 130,000 131,000 1,000 0.8% 58,062 2.26 Urban population 82,140 82,510 370 0.5% 5,262 15.68 Rural population 47,890 48,510 610 1.3% 52,799 0.92
change 2019 2020 2020 MYPE Ashford Urban Area MYPE MYPE number % Area (Ha) Density Total 22 Wards 82,140 82,510 370 0.5% 5,262 15.68 C1 Aylesford & East Stour 6,990 6,960 -30 -0.4% 213 32.65 C1 Beaver 6,880 6,980 90 1.4% 120 58.12 C1 Bockhanger 3,010 3,020 10 0.4% 173 17.50 C1 Bybrook 3,300 3,340 40 1.1% 124 26.98 C1 Conningbrook & Little Burton Farm 1,820 1,790 -30 -1.4% 130 13.80 C1 Furley 6,810 6,810 10 0.1% 222 30.66 C1 Goat Lees 2,710 2,590 -120 -4.4% 90 28.66 C1 Godinton 4,080 4,340 270 6.5% 81 53.57 C1 Highfield 2,450 2,460 10 0.4% 74 33.19 C1 Kennington 2,280 2,270 -10 -0.4% 272 8.36 C1 Norman 3,150 3,140 -10 -0.2% 169 18.56 C1 Park Farm North 2,560 2,610 50 1.9% 95 27.61 C1 Park Farm South 2,900 2,730 -170 -5.8% 77 35.34 C1 Repton 2,800 2,740 -60 -2.0% 192 14.32 C1 Roman 2,990 2,980 -20 -0.5% 84 35.38 C1 Singleton East 2,760 2,700 -60 -2.1% 75 36.01 C1 Singleton West 3,060 3,050 -10 -0.4% 53 57.80 C1 Stanhope 3,630 3,740 120 3.2% 47 79.15 C1 Victoria 6,340 6,400 60 0.9% 265 24.19 C1 Washford 2,820 2,880 70 2.5% 49 59.00 C1 Willesborough 6,250 6,370 130 2.0% 282 22.62 C1 Wye with Hinxhill 2,580 2,600 20 0.9% 2,377 1.09
change 2019 2020 2020 MYPE Tenterden Rural Settlement MYPE MYPE number % Area (Ha) Density Total 3 Wards 6,970 6,990 20 0.2% 2,053 3.41 D1 Tenterden North 2,150 2,130 -10 -0.6% 103 20.63 D1 Tenterden South 2,150 2,180 40 1.7% 1,177 1.86 D1 Tenterden St Michael's 2,680 2,670 -10 -0.3% 773 3.46
change 2019 2020 2020 MYPE Ashford Rural Area MYPE MYPE number % Area (Ha) Density Total 14 Wards 40,920 41,520 600 1.5% 50,747 0.82
E1 Biddenden 2,590 2,600 10 0.5% 2,988 0.87 E1 Bircholt 2,780 2,850 70 2.5% 3,369 0.85 D1 Charing 2,630 2,610 -10 -0.5% 2,040 1.28 E1 Downs North 2,570 2,580 10 0.5% 4,634 0.56 E1 Downs West 2,600 2,640 40 1.4% 3,964 0.66
E1 Isle of Oxney 2,670 2,690 20 0.6% 5,377 0.50 E1 Kingsnorth Village & Bridgefield 2,630 2,660 30 1.2% 752 3.53 E1 Mersham, Sevington South with Finberry 1,950 2,140 190 9.6% 1,448 1.48 E1 Rolvenden & Tenterden West 2,560 2,680 120 4.6% 4,317 0.62 E1 Saxon Shore 2,590 2,630 40 1.5% 4,325 0.61
E1 Upper Weald 2,680 2,700 20 0.7% 3,280 0.82 E1 Weald Central 4,870 4,940 70 1.5% 5,401 0.91 E1 Weald North 2,440 2,450 10 0.3% 3,422 0.72 E1 Weald South 5,370 5,350 -10 -0.2% 5,429 0.99 C1 Urban city and town D1 Rural town and fringe E1 Rural village and dispersed Source: 2020 MYPE for wards, (experimental statistics released 16 September 2020):Office for National Statistics (ONS), © Crown Copyright Presented by Kent Analytics, Kent County Council Density is the number of persons per hectare which is calculated by dividing the population by the area. All ward estimates have been individually rounded to the nearest 10 for presentation so may not sum when added. All district estimates have been individually rounded to the nearest 100 for presentation so may not sum when added. The Rural Urban Classification (RUC 2011): DCLG, DEFRA, ONS, and the Welsh Government
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2020 Mid-year Ward level population estimates change
2019 2020 2020 MYPE Canterbury City Council MYPE MYPE number % Area (Ha) Density Total 21 Wards 165,400 166,800 1,400 0.8% 30,888 5.40 Urban population 136,960 137,890 930 0.01 9,843 14.01 Rural population 28,430 28,880 440 0.02 21,032 1.37
change 2019 2020 2020 MYPE Canterbury Urban Area MYPE MYPE number % Area (Ha) Density Total 6 Wards 64,460 65,330 870 1.4% 4,472 14.61 C1 Barton 13,920 14,270 350 2.5% 1,018 14.02 C1 Blean Forest 11,040 11,130 100 0.9% 2,118 5.25 C1 Northgate 8,330 8,500 170 2.0% 185 45.98 C1 St Stephen's 10,620 10,670 50 0.5% 232 46.08 C1 Westgate 10,620 10,710 90 0.9% 183 58.63 C1 Wincheap