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Seeinfocus 1 2019 Russia.Pdf © Südosteuropa-Gesellschaft, October 2019 Widenmayerstr. 49 80538 Muenchen Email: [email protected] URL: www.sogde.org All rights reserved Southeast Europe in Focus 1 / 2019 Editor: Johanna Deimel, independent analyst, Munich Published by Südosteuropa-Gesellschaft e.V. / Southeast Europe Association, September 2019, Munich This publication is written within the framework of the project “Reality Check Series: Sources, Tools and Impact of External Non-EU-Engagement in Southeast Europe” led by the Südosteuropa-Gesellschaft (SOG) with the support of the German Federal Foreign Office (Stability Pact for Southeast Europe sponsored by Germany). About the project Recently, the Western Balkans region (and Southeast Europe in the following) has developed into a showcase of superior power interests. In particular, the actors Russia, Turkey, and China / Arab countries as increasingly committed external actors (in addition to the European Union and the USA) are coming to the fore. Nevertheless, there are differences in the motivations and goals of the actors concerned. The project of the Südosteuropa-Gesellschaft / Southeast Europe Association aims to take a closer look at the motives, instruments, and effects of the influence of Russia, Turkey, and China. The geostrategic, security policy, and systemically relevant dimensions will be examined through a political science approach. On the other hand, however, the economic, cultural, social and societal processes (certainly from a historical perspective) in the entire region of Southeast Europe will be examined. The contributions contained in this publication present the most important results on Russia's footprint in Southeast Europe as presented and discussed at an international conference held by the Südosteuropa- Gesellschaft / Southeast Europe Association at the German Federal Foreign Office in Berlin on 22-23 January 2019: Reality Check Series: Sources, Tools and Impact of Non-EU-Engagement in Southeast Europe. Part I: Russia. The editor is grateful to the authors of the publication for making their contributions to the conference available in a revised version and considering the discussion as well as current developments. Disclaimer The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Südosteuropa-Gesellschaft / Southeast Europe Association and the editor Johanna Deimel. About the SOG: The Southeast Europe Association (Südosteuropa-Gesellschaft – SOG) is an organisation that seeks to bridge political debate with scientific dialogue and socio-cultural exchange about Southeast Europe. The SOG is based on individual membership and is being supported institutionally by the German Federal Foreign Office in Berlin. Since its establishment in 1952, the SOG is an important liaison organisation for German foreign policy. For more information: WWW.sogde.org Layout: Johanna Deimel / Christian Hagemann Proofreading: Anders Michael Nielsen, M.Sc. & Ph.D. Graphic Design: Johanna Deimel / Christian Hagemann Photograph on cover and chapters: Johanna Deimel (chapter 6 see reference) Design chapters: Johanna Deimel 1 SOUTHEAST EUROPE IN FOCUS l REALITY CHECK SERIES: RUSSIA TABLE OF CONTENTS Abbreviations INTRODUCTION / NOTE BY THE EDITOR Johanna Deimel ....................................................................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER 1 FRAMING THE CONTEXT: RUSSIA AND SOUTHEAST EUROPE The Western Balkans and its Big Brother. On Russia's Policy in Southeast Europe Gernot Erler ........................................................................................................................................... 11 Russia in Southeast Europe Dimitar Bechev ...................................................................................................................................... 15 CHAPTER 2 FACTS, MYTHS, PERCEPTIONS, NARRATIVES, IDENTITY LINKS Mysterious Mixture of Russian Attitude towards Balkanese Rubik's Cube: Between Orthodox Mysticism and State-Bureaucratic Rationality Andrey Edemskiy ................................................................................................................................... 24 The Role of Symbolic Resources in the Relations of Bulgaria, Serbia and Greece with Russia Kyril Drezov ............................................................................................................................................ 33 CHAPTER 3 CHESSBOARD SOUTHEAST EUROPE? Southeast Europe in Russia’s Current Foreign Policy Ekaterina Entina .................................................................................................................................... 42 Russian Presence in Southeast Europe / Balkans – An Overview Maja Bjeloš ............................................................................................................................................ 50 CHAPTER 4 TOOLS AND ACTORS – DIPLOMACY AND SECURITY POLICY EU and Russia: Kosovo-Serbia Negotiations Veton Surroi ........................................................................................................................................... 61 Why is Russia Hooked on the Kosovo Conflict? Maxim Samorukov ................................................................................................................................. 67 Russia’s Soft and Sharp Power in Southeast Europe – The Russian Hybrid Influence Operation in Montenegro Vesko Garčević ....................................................................................................................................... 71 CHAPTER 5 TOOLS AND ACTORS – ENERGY Greek-Russian Relations Constantinos Filis ................................................................................................................................... 83 Russia in the Balkans: Focus on Energy Igor Tomberg ......................................................................................................................................... 88 2 SOUTHEAST EUROPE IN FOCUS l REALITY CHECK SERIES: RUSSIA Russia’s Influence in the Energy Sectors of Southeast Europe – the Case of the “South Stream Lite” Pipeline in Serbia Dirk Buschle ........................................................................................................................................... 92 Russian Energy to Europe: Western Balkans as the Security of Demand Device Aleksandar Kovačević ............................................................................................................................ 98 CHAPTER 6 SOFT POWER-INSTRUMENTS Russia’s Toxification of Civil Society in the Western Balkans Jasmin Mujanović ................................................................................................................................ 119 How Russia influences Media in Serbia and consequently Public Opinion Thomas Brey ........................................................................................................................................ 124 Bosnia Faces Growing Russian Influence Srečko Latal ......................................................................................................................................... 130 Night Wolves in sheep’s clothing: PR asset or a paramilitary tool? Péter Krekó and Patrik Szicherle .......................................................................................................... 133 Notes on the Contributors .................................................................................................................. 138 3 SOUTHEAST EUROPE IN FOCUS l REALITY CHECK SERIES: RUSSIA Abbreviations AERS - Energy Agency of the Republic of Serbia IMF - International Monetary Fund BiH – Bosnia, and Herzegovina KAP – Podgorica Aluminium Plant CEAC - Central European Aluminium Company KRIK - Crime and Corruption Reporting Network CEE- Central and Eastern Europe LNG - Liquefied Natural Gas CESEC - European Commission’s Central East South MAP - Membership Action Plan (NATO) Europe Gas Connectivity MWe - Megawatt-hour (electric e or thermal th) CFSP – Common Foreign and Security Policy of the EU NGO – Non-Governmental Organisation CSTO - Collective Security Treaty Organization NIS – Naftna Industrija Srbije EAEU - Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) OCCRP - Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting EEAS – European External Action Service Project EnCT - Energy Community Treaty OHR – Office of the High Representative EULEX - European Union Rule of Law Mission in PIC - Peace Implementation Council Kosovo RS – Republika Srpska EUR - Euro SNS – Serbian Radical Party FDI - Foreign Direct Investment SoEs - State-owned Enterprises FSB - Federal Security Service in Russia TANAP – Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline FYROM – Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia TAP – Trans-Adriatic Pipeline GDP – Gross Domestic Product UN – United Nations GRU - Russian Military Intelligence Agency UNCITRAL - UN Commission on International Trade HFO - Heavy Fuel Oil Law HPP - Hydroelectric Power Plant UNMIK – United Nations Mission in Kosovo ICJ - International Court of Justice UNOSEK - United Nations Office of the Special Envoy for Kosovo, Vienna ICSID - International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes UNSC – United Nations Security Council ICTY – International Criminal Tribunal for the former USD – United States Dollar Yugoslavia USSR – Union of Soviet Socialist Republics IGB – Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria WTO – World Trade Organisation 4 SOUTHEAST EUROPE IN FOCUS
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