BP Energy Outlook 2030
Washington, DC 26 April 2011 Outline
Global trends US particulars What can bend the trend?
Energy Outlook 2030 2 © BP 2011 Non-OECD economies drive consumption growth
Billion toe Billion toe 18 18
16 16 * 14 14 Renewables
12 12 Hydro
10 10 Nuclear 8 8 Non-OECD Coal 6 6 Gas 4 4 OECD Oil 2 2
0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 * Includes biofuels
Energy Outlook 2030 3 © BP 2011 Gas and renewables win as fuel shares converge
Shares of world primary energy Contributions to growth
50% Oil 2.5% Renewables* 40% 2.0% Hydro
Coal Nuclear 30% 1.5% Coal 20% 1.0% Gas Gas
10% Hydro 0.5% Oil
Nuclear Renewables* 0% 0.0% 1970 1990 2010 2030 1970- 1990- 2010- 1990 2010 2030 * Includes biofuels
Energy Outlook 2030 4 © BP 2011 Industry and power generation dominate energy growth
Growth of world energy consumption 2010-30 by sector and region by sector and fuel Billion toe Billion toe
3.0 3.0 2.5 Other 2.5 Hydro Non-OECD Nuclear 2.0 2.0 Middle Renew. 1.5 East 1.5 Electricity 1.0 China & 1.0 Gas India Biofuels 0.5 0.5 OECD Oil 0.0 0.0 Coal -0.5 -0.5 Other Other Industry Industry Transport Transport Final energy use Inputs to power Final energy use Inputs to power
Energy Outlook 2030 5 © BP 2011 Liquids balance – demand and supply
Mb/d Demand Supply 105 2030 level Other Other 100 S&C Am Iraq Mid East 95 Oil Sands Saudi Other Asia Biofuels NGLs 90 Brazil China FSU 85
80
75 2010 OECD Non- 2010 Non- Non- OPEC Declines OECD OPEC OPEC Growth Growth Growth Declines
Energy Outlook 2030 6 © BP 2011 Policies to constrain carbon emissions gradually tighten
Global CO 2 emissions from energy use by region by fuel vs GDP and energy
Billion tonnes CO 2 Billion tonnes CO 2 Index (1990=100) 40 40 400
350 GDP 30 30 Coal 300
20 20 250 Non-OECD Energy Gas 200 10 10 CO 150 2 OECD Oil
0 0 100 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030
Energy Outlook 2030 7 © BP 2011 US consumption flat, natural gas & renewables gain share
Shares of primary energy Primary energy consumption Billion toe 2.5 50% Oil 2.0 Renewables * 40%
Gas Hydro 1.5 30% Nuclear
Non-OECD Coal 20% 1.0 Coal Gas Renewables* 10% 0.5 NuclearOECD Oil Hydro
0% 0.0 1970 1990 2010 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 * Includes biofuels
Energy Outlook 2030 8 © BP 2011 US power generation grows while transport declines
Change in US energy consumption 2010-30 by sector and fuel Million toe
250 200 Hydro 150 Nuclear 100 Renew. Electricity 50 Gas 0 Biofuels -50 Oil -100 Coal -150 Transport Industry Other
Final energy use Inputs to power
Energy Outlook 2030 9 © BP 2011 US transport demand contracts despite biofuels growth
Energy in transport Passenger car fuel economy
Mtoe Miles/gallon* 70 700 US 600 China 60 Electricity Japan 500 OECD Europe 50 400 Gas
300 40 Biofuels 200 Oil 30 100
0 20 1990 2010 2030 2010 2020 2030 * New sales average
Energy Outlook 2030 10 © BP 2011 Unconventional gas will play a growing role
Sources of gas supply, by region
North America Europe China Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d 100 100 100 Net imports: Pipeline 80 80 80 LNG 60 60 60 DomesticColumn 4 production: 40 40 40 Syngas from coal Shale gas and 20 20 20 CBM Conventional 0 0 0 (inc tight gas) 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030
Energy Outlook 2030 11 © BP 2011 Alternative case: Stronger policy action on climate change
CO 2 emissions from energy use Sources of carbon abatement versus Base Case, 2030 Billion tonnes CO 2 40 2030 Base Case 2020 Iraq 5.4 billion tonnes 35 reduction CCS
Policy Fuel Case 30 switching
25 IEA “450 Scenario” * Energy efficiency
20 2000 2010 2020 2030
* a back-cast which illustrates what is required to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm from IEA,World Energy Outlook 2010
Energy Outlook 2030 12 © BP 2011 US: Impact of climate policy case
Primary energy consumption Differences from Base Case, 2030 Billion toe Mtoe 2.5 100 Primary Energy Oil 50 +6% +31% 2.3 Base Case +6% Gas Climate 0 2.1 Policy Case +10% Coal -50 -7%
1.9 Nuclear -100 -4.4% 1.7 Hydro -150 -38% Renewables 1.5 -200 in power 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Energy Outlook 2030 13 © BP 2011 Implications for energy security
Mtoe OECD Europe US China 1500 100%
1250 Oil & gas consumption 75% 1000
750 50%
500 Oil & gas production 25% 250
0 0% 19901990 2010 – 2030 2030 1990 1990 2010 – 2030 2030 1990 1990 2010 – 2030 2030 Net imports as % of consumption (rhs): Oil Gas
Energy Outlook 2030 14 © BP 2011 Conclusion
Energy consumption driven by non-OECD; US flat Fuel mix – diversifying Carbon emissions – too high globally; falling in the US Regional and policy trends – mixed; positive for US import dependence
Energy Outlook 2030 15 © BP 2011 Q & A
www.bp.com/energyoutlook2030
Also: www.bp.com/statisticalreview
Energy Outlook 2030 16 © BP 2011 BP Energy Outlook 2030
Washington, DC 26 April 2011