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2018 AES Climate Scenario Report

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2018 AES Climate Scenario Report AES CLIMATE SCENARIO REPORT 1 | © 2018 The AES Corporation Legal Disclaimer This report was prepared in 2018, and the results are based on specific on reasonable assumption, or, as noted in the report, expectations assumptions and estimates made in the context of the scenarios provided by third-parties such as the International Energy Agency (IEA). modeled in the report. Given the inherent uncertainty in predicting These assumptions include, but are not limited to, continued normal and modeling future conditions, caution should be exercised when levels of operating performance and electricity volume at our distribution STOCK interpreting the information provided. The results are not indicative companies and operational performance at our generation businesses of, and this report does not represent, a preferred or expected consistent with historical levels, as well as achievements of planned outcome of the future. productivity improvements and execution of AES’ corporate strategy. The scenarios modeled in this report are largely derived from Actual results could differ materially from those projected in our assumptions contained in the International Energy Agency’s forward-looking statements due to risks, uncertainties and other (IEA) 2017 World Energy Outlook (WEO) and the Representative factors. Important factors that could affect actual results are discussed Concentration Pathways (RCPs) established by the Intergovernmental in AES’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). including, but not limited to, the risks discussed under Item 1A “Risk These scenarios should not be mistaken for forecasts or predictions. Factors” and Item 7 “Management’s Discussion & Analysis” in AES’ Accordingly, there can be no assurance that the scenario modeling 2017 Annual Report on Form 10-K and in subsequent reports filed with or assessments presented in this report are a reliable indicator of the the SEC. Readers are encouraged to read AES’ filings to learn more actual impact of climate change on AES’ portfolio or businesses. about the risk factors associated with AES’ business. AES undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, This report contains forward-looking statements within the meaning whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. of the Securities Act of 1933 and of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited Any Stockholder who desires a copy of the Company’s 2017 Annual to, those related to future energy demand, future power prices, the Report on Form 10-K dated on or about February 26, 2018 with the SEC availability and cost of natural gas, the growth of solar and other may obtain a copy (excluding Exhibits) without charge by addressing a renewable forms of electricity generation and energy storage, future request to the Office of the Corporate Secretary, The AES Corporation, carbon taxes or regulations, potential rates of reduction in coal-fired 4300 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, Virginia 22203. Exhibits also may electricity generation, the expected operating life of existing coal-fired be requested, but a charge equal to the reproduction cost thereof will electricity generation plants, the level of energy efficiency investments, be made. A copy of the Form 10-K may also be obtained by visiting the the impact of demand-side management and AES’ corporate strategy. Company’s website at www.aes.com. Forward-looking statements are not intended to be a guarantee of future results, but instead constitute AES’ current expectations based 2 | © 2018 The AES Corporation Table of Contents A LETTER FROM THE CEO 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 OUR MISSION AND STRATEGY 9 STOCK OUR APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT 16 STRESS TESTING OUR PORTFOLIO 18 BUILDING THE SCENARIOS 20 THE STRENGTH OF OUR PORTFOLIO 25 3 | © 2018 The AES Corporation A Letter from the CEO The AES Corporation (AES) scenarios. Four Clean Energy Growth Platforms are core to our strategy: strives every day to improve our renewables, energy storage solutions, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and customers’ lives by providing energy efficiency. These platforms focus on deploying new technologies reliable and affordable access and providing clean, affordable electricity by: to power while setting the bar • Continuing our growth from renewables such as wind and solar. for innovation in the industry. • Deploying energy storage solutions alongside intermittent Our actions are guided by the generation sources to provide innovative grid reliability and objective to build a sustainable flexibility support. energy future while meeting the ever-changing energy needs of the • Providing clean, affordable LNG to regions traditionally reliant on markets in which we operate. Put oil-fired or diesel power with high emissions. simply, AES’ mission is to improve • Promoting energy efficiency to help electricity customers save lives by accelerating a safer and money and enable AES and other utilities to better manage the grid. greener energy future. The impacts of climate change and policy responses are dynamic. As The desire to limit climate-related impacts is driving change in a company with operations in 15 countries, we have developed a our industry, and I am proud to say we are leading the way. AES is portfolio and growth strategy that is resilient across a number of committed to a corporate strategy that aims to lower our greenhouse possible scenarios pertaining to both physical and transition climate- gas emissions and create a clean energy future. Pivoting our strategy related risks. This report implements recommendations of the Task toward renewables and low-carbon technologies allows us to capture Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and provides greater opportunities while serving our customers for years to come. additional analysis for stakeholders into the strength and resilience Proven technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including of our portfolio – whether we are navigating policies that limit global solar, wind and energy storage, are completely aligned with AES’ warming to 2°C or withstanding the possible physical impacts of a mission of improving lives. Our renewable energy projects are world that fails to achieve that goal. providing low-cost, emissions-free energy for our customers, while We believe there is immense opportunity for companies that can play improving air quality and protecting the environment for future a critical role in tackling climate change. With our global presence and generations. AES is leading innovation in the integration of renewable leading platforms across renewables, energy storage and LNG, AES is energy and storage solutions, and we believe this is one of the most uniquely positioned to be such a company. We are fully committed promising opportunities in our industry. to executing on our strategy and delivering attractive returns for our We are fundamentally shifting our portfolio in a manner that both shareholders while being one of the world’s leading global sustainable reduces our carbon intensity and our exposure to carbon price risk. energy companies for years to come. With the publication of this report, we are pleased to announce that we are increasing our 2030 target from 50% to a 70% reduction of carbon intensity from 2016 levels. Through 2020, we expect to add two to three gigawatts (GW) of new capacity in renewables annually. Andrés Gluski 70% reduction in President and Chief Executive Officer carbon intensity by 2030. As we highlight throughout this report, our work over the past several years has positioned AES for what many are referring to as “transition readiness”. Our investments in renewable energy and flexible power generating units, supported by robust commercial structures, provide significant value and resiliency across multiple climate change 4 | © 2018 The AES Corporation Executive Summary Our objective in publishing this report is to provide stakeholders with CAPITALIZING ON THE LOW-CARBON ECONOMY an understanding of the strength and resilience of our portfolio under TREND AND DRIVING MAXIMUM VALUE FOR various climate change scenarios using recommendations issued by OUR CUSTOMERS AND SHAREHOLDERS the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). We Future growth across our company is heavily weighted toward less have included a discussion about our strategy and risk management carbon-intensive sources of energy and related innovations that are approaches for managing risks and opportunities related to climate critical to limiting the impacts of climate change. We are pursuing these change and have presented the results of our portfolio stress test opportunities through four Clean Energy Growth Platforms: across three primary reference scenarios. • Renewable Energy: In 2017, we partnered with the Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo) to jointly acquire sPower, the leading independent solar operator and developer in the United States. With a portfolio of 1.3 GW of solar and wind projects in operation, another 1.3 GW of signed Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) and a development pipeline of more than 10 GW of renewables, sPower positions us to significantly grow our renewables portfolio in the coming years. The addition of sPower to the portfolio built on a prior acquisition that established AES Distributed Energy – our fast-growing pioneers of solar-plus- storage and community solar solutions. • Energy
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