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World Energy Outlook 2010 World Energy Outlook 2010 Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist 11 November 2010 © OECD/IEA 2010 The context: A time of unprecedented uncertainty The worst of the global economic crisis appears to be over – but is the recovery sustainable? Oil demand & supply are becoming less sensitive to price – what does this mean for future price movements? Natural gas markets are in the midst of a revolution – will it herald a golden era for gas? Copenhagen Accord & G-20 subsidy reforms are key advances – but do they go far enough & will they be fully implemented? China & other emerging economies will shape the global energy future – where will their policy decisions lead us? © OECD/IEA 2010 International oil price assumptions 140 Current Policies Scenario 120 New Policies Scenario 100 450 Scenario 80 Dollars perbarrel(2009) Dollars 60 40 20 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035 The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices than would otherwise be the case © OECD/IEA 2010 Recent policy commitments, if implemented, would make a difference World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 18 000 Rest of world Mtoe 16 000 China 14 000 OECD 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Global energy use grows by 36%, with non-OECD countries – led by China, where demand surges by 75% – accounting for almost all of the increase © OECD/IEA 2010 Emerging economies dominate the growth in demand for all fuels Incremental primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario, 2008-2035 OECD Coal China Oil Rest of world Gas Nuclear Hydro Other renewables - 600 - 300 0 300 600 900 1 200 1 500 Mtoe Demand for all types of energy increases in non-OECD countries, while demand for coal & oil declines in the OECD © OECD/IEA 2010 Fossil-fuel subsidies are distorting price signals Economic value of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies by country, 2009 70 Electricity (generated from 60 fossil fuels) Gas 50 Billion dollars Billion Oil Coal 40 30 20 10 0 Iran Iraq UAE India Libya Egypt China Qatar Russia Kuwait Mexico Algeria Ukraine Pakistan Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Argentina Venezuela Uzbekistan Bangladesh Kazakhstan South Africa South Saudi Arabia Saudi Turkmenistan Fossil-fuel consumption subsidies amounted to $312 billion in 2009, down from $558 billion in 2008, with the bulk of the fall due to lower international prices © OECD/IEA 2010 Booming demand for mobility in the emerging economies drives up oil use Passenger vehicles in the New Policies Scenario 1 600 China Million 1 400 Other non-OECD 1 200 United States 1 000 Other OECD 800 600 400 200 0 1980 1990 2000 2008 2020 2035 The global car fleet will continue to surge as more & more people in China & other emerging economies buy a car, overshadowing modest growth in the OECD © OECD/IEA 2010 Oil production becomes less crude World oil production by type in the New Policies Scenario 100 Unconventional oil mb/d 80 Natural gas liquids Crude oil - fields yet 60 to be developed or found Crude oil – currently 40 producing fields Total crude oil 20 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Global oil production reaches 96 mb/d in 2035 on the back of rising output of natural gas liquids & unconventional oil, as crude oil production plateaus © OECD/IEA 2010 More oil from fewer producers Incremental oil production by key country in the New Policies Scenario, 2009-2035 Saudi Arabia OPEC Iraq Non-OPEC Brazil Kazakhstan Canada Venezuela UAE Kuwait Iran Qatar Nigeria Libya Algeria 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 mb/d Production rises most in Saudi Arabia & Iraq, helping to push OPEC’s market share from 41% today to 52% by 2035, a level last seen prior to the first oil shock of 1973-1974 © OECD/IEA 2010 A golden age for gas? Gas is set to play a key role in meeting the world’s energy needs > demand rises by 44%, led by China & Middle East Unconventional gas accounts for 35% of the increase in global supply to 2035, with new non-US producers emerging Gas glut will peak soon, but may dissipate only very slowly The glut will keep pressure on gas exporters to move away from oil-price indexation, notably in Europe Lower prices could lead to stronger demand for gas, backing out renewables & coal in power generation © OECD/IEA 2010 Coal remains the backbone of global electricity generation Coal-fired electricity generation by region in the New Policies Scenario 12 000 China TWh 10 000 India Other non-OECD 8 000 OECD 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035 A drop in coal-fired generation in the OECD is offset by big increases elsewhere, especially China, where 600 GW of new capacity exceeds the current capacity of the US, EU & Japan © OECD/IEA 2010 Renewables enter the mainstream…. Renewable primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario OECD Pacific 2008 2035 Africa India Brazil China United States European Union 0 100 200 300 400 500 Mtoe The use of renewable energy triples between 2008 & 2035, driven by the power sector where their share in electricity supply rises from 19% in 2008 to 32% in 2035 © OECD/IEA 2010 ….but only if there is enough government support Annual global support for renewables in the New Policies Scenario 210 Biofuels 180 Renewables-based electricity 150 120 Billion dollars (2009) dollars Billion 90 60 30 0 2007 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Government support remains the key driver – rising from $57 billion in 2009 to $205 billion in 2035 – but higher fossil-fuel prices & declining investment costs also spur growth © OECD/IEA 2010 China becomes the market leader in low-carbon technologies China’s share of cumulative global additions to 2035 for selected technologies 30% Capacity additions 105 GW Passenger car sales 335 GW 20% 8.5 million 85 GW vehicles 10% 0% Solar PV Wind Nuclear Electric & plug-in hybrids Given the sheer scale of China’s market, its push to expand the role of low-carbon energy technologies is poised to play a key role in driving down costs, to the benefit of all countries © OECD/IEA 2010 Caspian energy riches could enhance global energy security Caspian oil & gas outlook in the New Policies Scenario 6 350 bcm mb/d 5 300 250 4 200 3 150 2 100 1 50 0 0 2000 2009 2020 2035 2000 2009 2020 2035 Oil net exports Inland oil consumption Gas net exports Inland gas consumption Kazakhstan drives an increase in Caspian oil production to 5.2 mb/d by 2035, while Turkmenistan & Azerbaijan push up gas production to over 310 bcm © OECD/IEA 2010 The 450 Scenario: A roadmap from 3.5C to 2C The 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with limiting the increase in temperature to 2C Assumes vigorous implementation of Copenhagen Accord pledges to 2020 & much stronger action thereafter The failure of the Copenhagen Accord pledges: > As many lack transparency, there is 3.9 Gt of uncertainty over the level of abatement pledged to 2020 > As many lack ambition, the cost of achieving the 2 C goal has increased by $1 trillion in 2010-2030 compared with WEO-2009 © OECD/IEA 2010 The 450 Scenario: How do we get there now? World energy-related CO2 emission savings by country in the 450 Scenario 38 Gt 35.4 Gt Share of cumulative abatement 36 New Policies Scenario between 2010-2035 34 China 32% 32 United States 18% 30 European Union 8% 13.7 Gt 28 India 7% 26 Middle East 4% 24 Russia 4% 450 Scenario 22 Rest of world 27% 21.7 Gt 20 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 In the 450 Scenario, China & the US together account for 50% of the cumulative emission abatement that is needed in 2010-2035 © OECD/IEA 2010 Achieving the 2°C goal will require rapid decarbonisation of global energy Average annual change in CO2 intensity in the 450 scenario 6% 5% A four-fold 4% increase needed 3% 2% 1% 0% 1990-2008 2008-2020 2020-2035 Carbon intensity would have to fall at twice the rate of 1990-2008 in the period 2008-2020 & almost four times faster in 2020-2035 © OECD/IEA 2010 A fundamental change is needed in power generation Share of world electricity generation by type and scenario 100% Low-carbon generation in the NPS 80% Additional low-carbon generation in the 450 Scenario 60% Fossil-fuel fired generation in the 450 Scenario 40% 20% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Low-carbon technologies account for over three-quarters of global power generation by 2035 in the 450 Scenario, a four-fold increase on today © OECD/IEA 2010 … and also in transport Sales of plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles in the 450 Scenario & CO2 intensity of the power sector 70 700 Plug-in hybrids 60 600 Electric vehicles Million 50 500 CO2 intensity in power generation 40 400 (right axis) 30 300 per kWh Grammes 20 200 10 100 0 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Plug-in hybrids & electric vehicles reach 39% of new sales by 2035, making a big contribution to emissions abatement, thanks to a major decarbonisation of the power sector © OECD/IEA 2010 Will peak oil be a guest or the spectre at the feast? Oil demand in the 450 Scenario 100 16 World demand in mb/d mb/d 96 12 450 Scenario 92 8 Right axis: 88 4 Inter-regional 84 0 (bunkers) Other non-OECD 80 -4 India 76 -8 China 72 -12 OECD 68 -16 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Oil demand peaks at 88 mb/d before 2020 & falls to 81 mb/d in 2035, with a plunge in OECD demand more than offsetting continuing growth in non-OECD demand © OECD/IEA 2010 Combating climate change will bring economic benefits as well as costs Oil-import bills as share of GDP in selected countries 5% 2009 2035: New Policies Scenario 4% 2035: 450 Scenario 3% 2% 1% 0% European United Japan China India Union States In the 450
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