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World Energy Investment 2020 World Energy Investment 2020 Abstract World Energy Investment 2020 World Energy Investment 2020 Abstract Abstract The worldwide economic shock caused by the Covid-19 pandemic is having widespread and often dramatic effects on investments in the energy sector. Based on the latest available data, the International Energy Agency's World Energy Investment 2020 provides a unique and comprehensive perspective on how energy capital flows are being reshaped by the crisis, including full-year estimates for global energy investment in 2020. Now in its fifth edition, the World Energy Investment report is theannual IEA benchmark analysis of investment and financing across all areas of fuel and electricity supply, efficiency, and research and development. In addition to a full review of the 2019 trends that preceded the crisis, this year’s analysis highlights how companies are now reassessing strategies – and investors repricing risks – in response to today’s profound uncertainties and financial strains. The energy industry that emerges from this crisis will be significantly different from the one that came before. The vulnerabilities and implications vary among companies, depending on whether they are investing in fossil fuels or low-carbon technologies, as well as across different countries. The new report assesses which areas are most exposed and which are proving to be more resilient. The analysis also provides crucial insights for governments, investors and other stakeholders on new risks to energy security and sustainability, and what can be done to mitigate them. Page | 2 IEA. All reserved. rights World Energy Investment 2020 Table of contents Sectoral trends in energy finance ............................................... 140 Table of contents Role of institutional investors in energy investment .................... 159 Introduction ......................................................................................... 4 Sustainable finance and energy investment ................................ 172 Overview and key findings .................................................................. 7 R&D and technology innovation ...................................................... 181 Fuel supply ......................................................................................... 22 Investment in energy R&D ............................................................ 182 Overview and 2020 update ........................................................... 23 Trends in investment for technology innovation ......................... 187 Upstream oil and gas investment .................................................. 38 Annex ................................................................................................ 197 Midstream and downstream oil and gas investment .................... 45 Biofuels investment ........................................................................ 58 Coal supply investment .................................................................. 61 Power sector ...................................................................................... 66 Overview of power investment ...................................................... 67 Final investment decisions ............................................................. 77 Implications of power investment ................................................. 85 Trends in renewable power costs and investments ...................... 91 Networks and battery storage ....................................................... 97 Energy end use and efficiency ........................................................ 107 Overview of energy efficiency investment trends ...................... 108 Trends in end-use markets ............................................................ 113 Energy financing and funding ......................................................... 128 Cross-sector trends in energy finance ........................................ 129 Page | 3 IEA. All reserved. rights World Energy Investment 2020 Executive summary Introduction Page | 4 IEA. All reserved. rights World Energy Investment 2020 Introduction Introduction The worldwide shock caused by the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic The effects on energy investment in this scenario come from two has drastically altered the course of the global economy and energy directions. First, spending cuts due to lower aggregate demand and markets. In response, this year’s World Energy Investment (WEI) has reduced earnings; these cuts have been particularly severe in the oil expanded its coverage to integrate the latest data and insights on the industry, where prices have collapsed. Second, the practical unfolding crisis in 2020, in addition to a full review of 2019. disruption to investment activity caused by lockdowns and restrictions on the movement of people and goods. As the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) annual benchmark for tracking energy capital flows, the focus in this report is on investment Our assessment of 2020 trends is based the latest available and financing trends across all areas of energy supply, efficiency, and investment data and announcements by governments and companies, research and development (R&D). Our aim is to provide timely and as of mid-May (including first-quarter company reporting), tracking of authoritative data and analysis to policy makers, investors and other progress with individual projects, interviews with leading industry stakeholders, as well as insights on risks to energy security and figures, and incorporates also the latest insights and analysis from sustainability, and what can be done to mitigate them. across IEA work. Our estimates for 2020 then quantify the possible implications for full-year spending, based on assumptions about the Broadening the scope of the World Energy Investment to include a duration of lockdowns and the shape of the eventual recovery. perspective on 2020 requires a view on the severity and duration of the ongoing public health crisis and economic slowdown, and There is some potential upside to this assessment if medical and recognition of the huge uncertainty that surrounds these factors. The macroeconomic crisis management efforts are more successful than assumptions that underpin this analysis follow those of the IEA Global in our base case, allowing for a more rapid V-shaped economic Energy Review 2020, released in April (IEA, 2020a), which assessed recovery and a more pronounced pickup in investment activity in the energy and emissions trends for the year. latter part of the year. The baseline expectation for 2020 is a widespread global recession By the same token, there is also the distinct possibility of an even caused by prolonged restrictions on mobility and social and economic more profound slump in investment spending, especially in the event activity. With a gradual opening up of economies currently under that a second wave of infections later in the year prompts renewed lockdown, the recovery is U-shaped and accompanied by a substantial restrictions and lockdowns. Whichever ways events unfold, policy permanent loss of economic activity. Global gross domestic product responses – whether targeting energy or the economy at large – will (GDP) is assumed to decline by 6% in 2020, an outlook broadly have a major impact on the outcome. consistent with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) longer outbreak case (IMF, 2020). Page | 5 IEA. All reserved. rights World Energy Investment 2020 Introduction Introduction: The global energy and emissions picture in 2020 The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on energy demand and emissions much further across the full year than in the first quarter, with reduced provide an essential backdrop to this World Energy Investment report. demand in power and industry applications. The most pertinent elements of this picture are summarised here, and In the electricity sector, demand has been significantly reduced as a described in more detail in the IEA Global Energy Review 2020. result of lockdown measures, with knock-on effects on the power mix. A key insight from the analysis of daily data (through mid-April) is that Electricity demand has been depressed by 20% or more during countries in full lockdown are experiencing an average 25% decline in periods of full lockdown in several countries, as upticks for residential energy demand relative to typical levels and countries in partial demand are far outweighed by reductions in commercial and lockdown an average 18% decline. industrial operations. Demand reductions have lifted the share of renewables in the electricity supply, as their output is largely Oil is bearing the brunt of this shock because of the curtailment in unaffected by demand. Demand has fallen for all other sources of mobility and aviation, which represent nearly 60% of global oil electricity, including coal, gas and nuclear power. demand. At the height of the lockdowns in April, when more than 4 billion people worldwide were subject to some form of confinement, For the year as a whole, output from renewable sources is expected to year-on-year demand for oil was down by around 25 mb/d. For the increase because of low operating costs and preferential access to year as a whole, oil demand could drop by 9 mb/d on average, many power systems. Nuclear power is expected to decline somewhat returning oil consumption to 2012 levels. in response to lower electricity demand. In aggregate, this would mean that low-carbon sources far outstrip coal-fired generation After oil, the fuel most affected by the crisis is set to be coal.
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