BP Energy Outlook 2030 Washington, DC 26 April 2011 Outline Global trends US particulars What can bend the trend? Energy Outlook 2030 2 © BP 2011 Non-OECD economies drive consumption growth Billion toe Billion toe 18 18 16 16 * 14 14 Renewables 12 12 Hydro 10 10 Nuclear 8 8 Non-OECD Coal 6 6 Gas 4 4 OECD Oil 2 2 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 * Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 2030 3 © BP 2011 Gas and renewables win as fuel shares converge Shares of world primary energy Contributions to growth 50% Oil 2.5% Renewables* 40% 2.0% Hydro Coal Nuclear 30% 1.5% Coal 20% 1.0% Gas Gas 10% Hydro 0.5% Oil Nuclear Renewables* 0% 0.0% 1970 1990 2010 2030 1970- 1990- 2010- 1990 2010 2030 * Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 2030 4 © BP 2011 Industry and power generation dominate energy growth Growth of world energy consumption 2010-30 by sector and region by sector and fuel Billion toe Billion toe 3.0 3.0 2.5 Other 2.5 Hydro Non-OECD Nuclear 2.0 2.0 Middle Renew. 1.5 East 1.5 Electricity 1.0 China & 1.0 Gas India Biofuels 0.5 0.5 OECD Oil 0.0 0.0 Coal -0.5 -0.5 Other Other Industry Industry Transport Transport Final energy use Inputs to power Final energy use Inputs to power Energy Outlook 2030 5 © BP 2011 Liquids balance – demand and supply Mb/d Demand Supply 105 2030 level Other Other 100 S&C Am Iraq Mid East 95 Oil Sands Saudi Other Asia Biofuels NGLs 90 Brazil China FSU 85 80 75 2010 OECD Non- 2010 Non- Non- OPEC Declines OECD OPEC OPEC Growth Growth Growth Declines Energy Outlook 2030 6 © BP 2011 Policies to constrain carbon emissions gradually tighten Global CO 2 emissions from energy use by region by fuel vs GDP and energy Billion tonnes CO 2 Billion tonnes CO 2 Index (1990=100) 40 40 400 350 GDP 30 30 Coal 300 20 20 250 Non-OECD Energy Gas 200 10 10 CO 150 2 OECD Oil 0 0 100 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 7 © BP 2011 US consumption flat, natural gas & renewables gain share Shares of primary energy Primary energy consumption Billion toe 2.5 50% Oil 2.0 Renewables * 40% Gas Hydro 1.5 30% Nuclear Non-OECD Coal 20% 1.0 Coal Gas Renewables* 10% 0.5 NuclearOECD Oil Hydro 0% 0.0 1970 1990 2010 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 * Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 2030 8 © BP 2011 US power generation grows while transport declines Change in US energy consumption 2010-30 by sector and fuel Million toe 250 200 Hydro 150 Nuclear 100 Renew. Electricity 50 Gas 0 Biofuels -50 Oil -100 Coal -150 Transport Industry Other Final energy use Inputs to power Energy Outlook 2030 9 © BP 2011 US transport demand contracts despite biofuels growth Energy in transport Passenger car fuel economy Mtoe Miles/gallon* 70 700 US 600 China 60 Electricity Japan 500 OECD Europe 50 400 Gas 300 40 Biofuels 200 Oil 30 100 0 20 1990 2010 2030 2010 2020 2030 * New sales average Energy Outlook 2030 10 © BP 2011 Unconventional gas will play a growing role Sources of gas supply, by region North America Europe China Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d 100 100 100 Net imports: Pipeline 80 80 80 LNG 60 60 60 DomesticColumn 4 production: 40 40 40 Syngas from coal Shale gas and 20 20 20 CBM Conventional 0 0 0 (inc tight gas) 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 11 © BP 2011 Alternative case: Stronger policy action on climate change CO 2 emissions from energy use Sources of carbon abatement versus Base Case, 2030 Billion tonnes CO 2 40 2030 Base Case 2020 Iraq 5.4 billion tonnes 35 reduction CCS Policy Fuel Case 30 switching 25 IEA “450 Scenario” * Energy efficiency 20 2000 2010 2020 2030 * a back-cast which illustrates what is required to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010 Energy Outlook 2030 12 © BP 2011 US: Impact of climate policy case Primary energy consumption Differences from Base Case, 2030 Billion toe Mtoe 2.5 100 Primary Energy Oil 50 +6% +31% 2.3 Base Case +6% Gas Climate 0 2.1 Policy Case +10% Coal -50 -7% 1.9 Nuclear -100 -4.4% 1.7 Hydro -150 -38% Renewables 1.5 -200 in power 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 13 © BP 2011 Implications for energy security Mtoe OECD Europe US China 1500 100% 1250 Oil & gas consumption 75% 1000 750 50% 500 Oil & gas production 25% 250 0 0% 19901990 2010 – 2030 2030 1990 1990 2010 – 2030 2030 1990 1990 2010 – 2030 2030 Net imports as % of consumption (rhs): Oil Gas Energy Outlook 2030 14 © BP 2011 Conclusion Energy consumption driven by non-OECD; US flat Fuel mix – diversifying Carbon emissions – too high globally; falling in the US Regional and policy trends – mixed; positive for US import dependence Energy Outlook 2030 15 © BP 2011 Q & A www.bp.com/energyoutlook2030 Also: www.bp.com/statisticalreview Energy Outlook 2030 16 © BP 2011 BP Energy Outlook 2030 Washington, DC 26 April 2011.