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Foreword – Decision 2020

Dear Reader,

As we approach election day, the Elections Daily staff and I want to take a moment to thank you all for being such dedicated readers of our content. You are enormously important to the fabric of our organization, and your consistent support is appreciated by everyone at Elections Daily. We hope you enjoy this review of our race ratings for this election, and we look forward to seeing you again on election day as we complete our coverage of the 2020 election cycle.

Happy election season,

Harrison W. Lavelle Head of the Elections Team

Eric Cunningham Founder and Editor in Chief

Joe Szymanski Deputy Head of the Elections Team

Kraz Greinetz Editor

Adam Trencher Editor

Johanna Rowling Editor

And All Contributing Members

© 2020 Elections Daily

Biden 335 Trump 203

Safe DEM Likely DEM Leans DEM Leans REP Likely REP Safe REP (212) (0) (123) (91) (18) (94) MA (11) ME2 (1) OH (18) SC (9) WV (5) ME (3) NH (4) GA (16) KS (6) IN (11) VT (3) PA (20) IA (6) SC (9) KY (8) RI (4) MI (16) MO (10) AK (3) TN (11) CT (7) WI (10) TX (38) AL (9) NY (29) MN (10) MT (3) MS (6) NJ (14) NC (15) AR (6) DE (3) FL (29) LA (8) NE2 (1) OK (7) MD (10) AZ (11) NE (4) DC (3) NV (6) SD (3) VA (13) ND (3) IL (20) WY (3) CO (9) UT (4) NM (5) ID (4) HI (4) WA (12) OR (7) CA (55)

*includes two independents caucusing Democratic, one runoff DEM* 50 GOP 49

Safe DEM Likely DEM Leans DEM Leans REP Likely REP Safe REP (8) (3) (4) (3) (4) (12) OR - Merkley MN – Smith ME – Collins IA – Ernst SC – Graham WV – Capito IL – Durbin CO - Gardner MI – Peters GA – Perdue* KS – Open KY – McConnell VA – Warner TN – Open DE – Coons NM - Open NC – Tillis MT - Daines TX – Cornyn MS – H-Smith NJ – Booker AZ – McSally AK - Sullivan AR – Cotton RI – Reed AL - Jones MA – Markey LA – Cassidy NH – Shaheen OK – Inhofe NE – Sasse SD – Rounds WY – Open ID - Risch

*In the Georgia Regular we consider Perdue to be favored, but the likelihood of a runoff or an Ossoff victory is greater than 50%.

Safe Runoff GA - Loeffler

Democrats 242

Republicans 193

Democratic Republican

Likely DEM Lean DEM Lean REP Likely REP (20) (27) (22) (14) AZ-1 CA-21 AK-AL CA-1 O’Halleran Cox Young LaMalfa IL-14 CA-39 AR-2 CA-4 Underwood Cisneros Hill McClintock IL-17 CA-48 AZ-6 FL-16 Bustos Rouda Schweikert Buchanan ME-2 GA-6 CA-25 KS-2 Golden McBath Garcia Open MI-8 GA-7 CA-50 KY-6 Slotkin Open Open Barr MI-11 IA-1 CO-3 NC-9 Stevens Finkenauer Open Bishop MN-2 IA-2 FL-15 NC-11 Craig Open Open Open NH-1 IA-3 IL-13 OH-12 Pappas Axne Davis Balderson NH-2 IN-5 MI-3 PA-16 Kuster Open Open Kelly NJ-3 MO-2 MI-6 TX-2 Kim Wagner Upton Crenshaw NV-3 NJ-2 MN-1 TX-3 Lee Van Drew Hagedorn Taylor

NV-4 NJ-7 MN-7 TX-6 Horsford Malinowski Peterson Wright NY-19 NM-2 MT-AL TX-25 Delgado Small Open Williams PA-7 NY-2 NC-8 TX-31 Wild Open Hudson Carter PA-8 NY-22 NE-2 WA-3 Cartwright Brindisi Bacon Beutler TX-7 NY-24 NY-1 Fletcher Katko Zeldin TX-23 OR-4 NY-11 Open DeFazio Rose TX-32 PA-10 OH-1 Allred Perry Cabot WA-8 PA-17 OK-5 Schrier Lamb Horn WI-3 SC-1 PA-1 Kind Cunningham Fitzpatrick TX-24 SC-2 Open Wilson UT-4 TX-10 McAdams McCaul VA -2 TX-21 Luria Roy VA -5 TX-22 Open Open VA -7 Spanberger FL-26 M-Powell FL-27 Shalala

Seats flipping Republican Minnesota-7 (D) Collin Peterson (R) (Leans Republican) incumbent Oklahoma-5 (D) Kendra Horn (R) (Leans Republican) incumbent New York-11 (D) Max Rose (R) (Leans Republican) incumbent

Seats flipping Democratic North Carolina-2 (D) Deborah Ross (R) Alan Swain (Safe Democratic – Open) North Carolina-6 (D) (R) Lee Haywood (Safe Democratic – Open) Texas-23 (D) Gina Ortiz-Jones (R) (Likely Dem – Open) Texas-24 (D) C. Valenzuela (R) (Leans Dem – Open) Georgia-7 (D) Carolyn Bordeaux (R) Rich McCormick (Leans Dem – Open) Indiana-5 (D) Christina Hale (R) (Leans Dem – Open) Missouri-2 (D) Jill Schupp (R) (Leans Democratic) incumbent New Jersey-2 (D) Amy Kennedy (R) (Leans Democratic) incumbent New York-2 (D) Jackie Gordon (R) (Leans Democratic) New York-24 (D) Dana Balter (R) (Leans Democratic) incumbent Pennsylvania-10 (D) E. DePasquale (R) (Leans Democratic) -5 (D) Cameron Webb (R) Bob Good (Leans Democratic)

Safe DEM Likely DEM Leans DEM Leans REP Likely REP Safe REP (2) (1) (0) (2) (0) (5) WA - Inslee NC - Cooper MT – Open NH – Sununu DE - Carney MO – Parson VT – Scott WV – Justice ND – Burgum UT – Open