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Foreword – Decision 2020
Dear Reader,
As we approach election day, the Elections Daily staff and I want to take a moment to thank you all for being such dedicated readers of our content. You are enormously important to the fabric of our organization, and your consistent support is appreciated by everyone at Elections Daily. We hope you enjoy this review of our race ratings for this election, and we look forward to seeing you again on election day as we complete our coverage of the 2020 election cycle.
Happy election season,
Harrison W. Lavelle Head of the Elections Team
Eric Cunningham Founder and Editor in Chief
Joe Szymanski Deputy Head of the Elections Team
Kraz Greinetz Editor
Adam Trencher Editor
Johanna Rowling Editor
And All Contributing Members
© 2020 Elections Daily
Biden 335 Trump 203
Safe DEM Likely DEM Leans DEM Leans REP Likely REP Safe REP (212) (0) (123) (91) (18) (94) MA (11) ME2 (1) OH (18) SC (9) WV (5) ME (3) NH (4) GA (16) KS (6) IN (11) VT (3) PA (20) IA (6) SC (9) KY (8) RI (4) MI (16) MO (10) AK (3) TN (11) CT (7) WI (10) TX (38) AL (9) NY (29) MN (10) MT (3) MS (6) NJ (14) NC (15) AR (6) DE (3) FL (29) LA (8) NE2 (1) OK (7) MD (10) AZ (11) NE (4) DC (3) NV (6) SD (3) VA (13) ND (3) IL (20) WY (3) CO (9) UT (4) NM (5) ID (4) HI (4) WA (12) OR (7) CA (55)
*includes two independents caucusing Democratic, one runoff DEM* 50 GOP 49
Safe DEM Likely DEM Leans DEM Leans REP Likely REP Safe REP (8) (3) (4) (3) (4) (12) OR - Merkley MN – Smith ME – Collins IA – Ernst SC – Graham WV – Capito IL – Durbin CO - Gardner MI – Peters GA – Perdue* KS – Open KY – McConnell VA – Warner TN – Open DE – Coons NM - Open NC – Tillis MT - Daines TX – Cornyn MS – H-Smith NJ – Booker AZ – McSally AK - Sullivan AR – Cotton RI – Reed AL - Jones MA – Markey LA – Cassidy NH – Shaheen OK – Inhofe NE – Sasse SD – Rounds WY – Open ID - Risch
*In the Georgia Regular we consider Perdue to be favored, but the likelihood of a runoff or an Ossoff victory is greater than 50%.
Safe Runoff GA - Loeffler
Democrats 242
Republicans 193
Democratic Republican
Likely DEM Lean DEM Lean REP Likely REP (20) (27) (22) (14) AZ-1 CA-21 AK-AL CA-1 O’Halleran Cox Young LaMalfa IL-14 CA-39 AR-2 CA-4 Underwood Cisneros Hill McClintock IL-17 CA-48 AZ-6 FL-16 Bustos Rouda Schweikert Buchanan ME-2 GA-6 CA-25 KS-2 Golden McBath Garcia Open MI-8 GA-7 CA-50 KY-6 Slotkin Open Open Barr MI-11 IA-1 CO-3 NC-9 Stevens Finkenauer Open Bishop MN-2 IA-2 FL-15 NC-11 Craig Open Open Open NH-1 IA-3 IL-13 OH-12 Pappas Axne Davis Balderson NH-2 IN-5 MI-3 PA-16 Kuster Open Open Kelly NJ-3 MO-2 MI-6 TX-2 Kim Wagner Upton Crenshaw NV-3 NJ-2 MN-1 TX-3 Lee Van Drew Hagedorn Taylor
NV-4 NJ-7 MN-7 TX-6 Horsford Malinowski Peterson Wright NY-19 NM-2 MT-AL TX-25 Delgado Small Open Williams PA-7 NY-2 NC-8 TX-31 Wild Open Hudson Carter PA-8 NY-22 NE-2 WA-3 Cartwright Brindisi Bacon Beutler TX-7 NY-24 NY-1 Fletcher Katko Zeldin TX-23 OR-4 NY-11 Open DeFazio Rose TX-32 PA-10 OH-1 Allred Perry Cabot WA-8 PA-17 OK-5 Schrier Lamb Horn WI-3 SC-1 PA-1 Kind Cunningham Fitzpatrick TX-24 SC-2 Open Wilson UT-4 TX-10 McAdams McCaul VA -2 TX-21 Luria Roy VA -5 TX-22 Open Open VA -7 Spanberger FL-26 M-Powell FL-27 Shalala
Seats flipping Republican Minnesota-7 (D) Collin Peterson (R) Michelle Fischbach (Leans Republican) incumbent Oklahoma-5 (D) Kendra Horn (R) Stephanie Bice (Leans Republican) incumbent New York-11 (D) Max Rose (R) Nicole Malliotakis (Leans Republican) incumbent
Seats flipping Democratic North Carolina-2 (D) Deborah Ross (R) Alan Swain (Safe Democratic – Open) North Carolina-6 (D) Kathy Manning (R) Lee Haywood (Safe Democratic – Open) Texas-23 (D) Gina Ortiz-Jones (R) Tony Gonzales (Likely Dem – Open) Texas-24 (D) C. Valenzuela (R) Beth Van Duyne (Leans Dem – Open) Georgia-7 (D) Carolyn Bordeaux (R) Rich McCormick (Leans Dem – Open) Indiana-5 (D) Christina Hale (R) Victoria Spartz (Leans Dem – Open) Missouri-2 (D) Jill Schupp (R) Ann Wagner (Leans Democratic) incumbent New Jersey-2 (D) Amy Kennedy (R) Jeff Van Drew (Leans Democratic) incumbent New York-2 (D) Jackie Gordon (R) Andrew Garbarino (Leans Democratic) New York-24 (D) Dana Balter (R) John Katko (Leans Democratic) incumbent Pennsylvania-10 (D) E. DePasquale (R) Scott Perry (Leans Democratic) Virginia-5 (D) Cameron Webb (R) Bob Good (Leans Democratic)
Safe DEM Likely DEM Leans DEM Leans REP Likely REP Safe REP (2) (1) (0) (2) (0) (5) WA - Inslee NC - Cooper MT – Open NH – Sununu DE - Carney MO – Parson VT – Scott WV – Justice ND – Burgum UT – Open