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Negotiating with North Korea Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 20:25 09 May 2016 Negotiating with North Korea North Korea’s nuclear weapons program has provoked much apprehension in the international community in recent years. The Six Party Talks were convened in 2003 to prevent North Korea from developing nuclear weapons. They brought together the US, China, Russia, Japan as well as North and South Korea in the effort to negotiate a multilateral resolution of North Korea’s nuclear program but the parties had widely different views and approaches. This book will examine the Six Party Talks as a study in multilateral nego- tiation highlighting the expectations vested in them and their inability to develop a common approach to the issue. It holds out some important lessons for multilateral negotiation, diplomacy and dealing with North Korea. Leszek Buszynski is a Visiting Fellow with the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre and the National Security College at the Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. He is also co-series editor of the Routledge Security in Asia Pacific Series. Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 20:25 09 May 2016 Routledge Security in Asia Pacific Series Series Editors Leszek Buszynski, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, the Australian National University, and William Tow, Australian National University Security issues have become more prominent in the Asia Pacific region because of the presence of global players, rising great powers, and confident middle powers, which intersect in complicated ways. This series puts forward important new work on key security issues in the region. It embraces the roles of the major actors, their defense policies and postures and their security interaction over the key issues of the region. It includes coverage of the United States, China, Japan, Russia, the Koreas, as well as the middle powers of ASEAN and South Asia. It also covers issues relating to environmental and economic security as well as transnational actors and regional groupings. 1 Bush and Asia 7 Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons America’s evolving relations with Bhumitra Chakma East Asia Edited by Mark Beeson 8 Human Security in East Asia Challenges for collaborative action 2 Japan, Australia and Asia-Pacific Edited by Sorpong Peou Security Edited by Brad Williams and 9 Security and International Politics Andrew Newman in the South China Sea Towards a co-operative 3 Regional Cooperation and Its management regime Enemies in Northeast Asia Edited by Sam Bateman and The impact of domestic forces Ralf Emmers Edited by Edward Friedman and Sung Chull Kim 10 Japan’s Peace Building Diplomacy in Asia 4 Energy Security in Asia Seeking a more active political role Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 20:25 09 May 2016 Edited by Michael Wesley Lam Peng Er 5 Australia as an Asia Pacific 11 Geopolitics and Maritime Regional Power Territorial Disputes in East Asia Friendships in flux? Ralf Emmers Edited by Brendan Taylor 12 North Korea’s Military- 6 Securing Southeast Asia Diplomatic Campaigns, 1966–2008 The politics of security sector reform Narushige Michishita Mark Beeson and Alex J. Bellamy 13 Political Change, Democratic 20 Nuclear Power and Energy Transitions and Security in Security in Asia Southeast Asia Edited by Rajesh Basrur and Mely Caballero-Anthony Koh Swee Lean Collin 14 American Sanctions in the 21 Human Security and Climate Asia-Pacific Change in Southeast Asia Brendan Taylor Managing risk and resilience Edited by Lorraine Elliott and 15 Southeast Asia and the Rise of Mely Caballero-Anthony Chinese and Indian Naval Power Between rising naval powers 22 Maritime Challenges and Edited by Sam Bateman and Priorities in Asia Joshua Ho Implications for regional security Edited by Joshua Ho and 16 Human Security in Southeast Asia Sam Bateman Yukiko Nishikawa 23 Ten Years After 9/11 – 17 ASEAN and the Rethinking the Jihadist Threat Institutionalization of East Asia Arabinda Acharya Ralf Emmers 24 Bilateralism, Multilateralism and 18 India as an Asia Pacific Power Asia-Pacific Security David Brewster Contending cooperation Edited by William T. Tow and 19 ASEAN Regionalism Brendan Taylor Cooperation, values and institutionalisation 25 Negotiating with North Korea Christopher B. Roberts The Six Party Talks and the nuclear issue Leszek Buszynski Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 20:25 09 May 2016 This page intentionally left blank Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 20:25 09 May 2016 Negotiating with North Korea The Six Party Talks and the nuclear issue Leszek Buszynski Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 20:25 09 May 2016 I~ ~~o~:~~n~~:up LONDON AND NEW YORK First published 2013 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2013 Leszek Buszynski The right of Leszek Buszynski to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patent Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Buszynski, Leszek. Negotiating with North Korea : the six party talks and the nuclear issue / Leszek Buszynski. pages cm. – (Routledge Security in Asia Pacific ; 23) Summary: "The North Korean nuclear threat has created an enormous amount of apprehension in the international community in recent years. In 2003, the Six Party Talks brought together the US, China, Russia, Japan as well as South and North Korea to negotiate a multilateral resolution of this nuclear issue. This book examines this multilateral attempt, and will look at the Six Party Talks as a study of multilateralism, differentiating it from empirical studies on the Korean peninsula"– Provided by publisher. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Nuclear arms control–Korea (North) 2. Nuclear nonproliferation– International cooperation. I. Title. JZ6009.K7B87 2013 327.1'747095193–dc23 2012047863 ISBN: 978-0-415-68273-2 (hbk) ISBN: 978-0-203-69419-0 (ebk) Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 20:25 09 May 2016 Typeset in Times New Roman by Taylor & Francis Books Contents Acknowledgements viii Abbreviations ix Introduction 1 1 Bargaining and negotiation theory 5 2 Strategies and bargaining positions of the players 18 3 The formation of the Six Party Talks 53 4 South Korea and China and the September 2005 agreement 78 5 The nuclear test and the February 2007 agreement 111 6 From the February agreement to the end of the Six Party Talks 140 7Efforts to revive the Six Party Talks 164 Conclusion 184 Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 20:25 09 May 2016 Bibliography 197 Index 205 Acknowledgements In a book of this nature which deals with great complexity and diplomatic nuance there are many acknowledgements to make, not all of which can be recorded here. I would like to thank Charles Pritchard for sitting down with me over coffee in Seoul and Stockholm and sharing his experiences of the Bush Administration’s dealings with the Six Party Talks. Ambassador Cho Tae-yong was a member of the South Korea delegation to the Six Party Talks and his experiences were invaluable and fascinating. Others deserving thanks include Ambassador Lim Sung-nam, who is South Korea’s present envoy to the Six Party Talks, Hideshi Takesada, who explained the Japanese position, Viktor Larin for arranging interviews with Russian scholars in his institute in Vladivostok, Shin Chang-hoon and Bong Young-shik of the Asian Institute in Seoul, Shin Beom-chul and Lee Ho-ryung of the Korean Institute of Defense Analysis. There are many others to whom I am grateful for their ideas and insights on the topic. Some I met at academic conferences, others at various receptions. Most had clear views when the subject of North Korea turned up and in view of their official status would prefer not to be named in any case. I also want to thank Yonas Tariku Metafaria for his diligence in acting as research assistant in the formative stages of the project, and Russell Mcaskie for carefully reading the text and for his comments and very helpful sugges- tions. Needless to say, any errors of fact or interpretation are my own. Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 20:25 09 May 2016 Abbreviations ABM Anti ballistic missile APEC Asia Pacific Economic cooperation BDA Banco Delta Asia CBM Confidence Building Measure CVID Complete, Verifiable and Irreversible Dismantlement DMZ Demilitarized Zone DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea GNP Grand National Party HEU Highly Enriched Uranium IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency KCNA Korean Central News Agency KEDO Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization LDP Liberal Democratic Party LWR Light water reactor MW Megawatts NPT Non-Proliferation Treaty NSC National Security Council PSI Proliferation Security Initiative WMD Weapons of mass destruction Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 20:25 09 May 2016 This page intentionally left blank Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 20:25 09 May 2016 Introduction This is a study of bargaining and negotiation, though it does examine other issues related to the security of the Korean Peninsula. It analyzes the conduct of negotiations with North Korea and shows how the process of negotiation shapes the outcome. The conceptual literature on negotiation has been a useful starting point for this study and in particular I.
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