The Parliamentary Elections in : Lukashenka’s Dress Rehearsal?

Uladzimir Padhol and David R. Marples

n 16 October 2000 the Advisory and Wieck, which has maintained that the opposition Monitoring Group of the OSCE in should gain a foothold in the official structures and Odeclared that the parliamentary elections, advocated a mass turnout at the polling booths as a which took place in the of Belarus on 15 form of public . The role of the OSCE AMB October, did not meet international standards for has itself caused dissension among the opposition,1 democratic elections. In addition the US some of whom have maintained that the Department of State has also refused to recognize organization is in this way promoting the the validity of the elections and will continue to government’s cause. At issue are the results of an regard the Parliament of the 13th Session, dissolved agreement made between President Alyaksander by President Lukashenka in late 1996, as the Lukashenka and the OSCE at a summit in Istanbul, legitimate parliament of Belarus. The chairman of Turkey, in November 1999, during which that parliament, Semyon Sharetsky, left Belarus in Lukashenka agreed to develop a serious “dialogue” the summer of 1999, fearing for his safety. A second with the opposition, thereby (it was hoped) bringing round of the elections took place on 29 October, to an end the impasse between the two sides, which resulting in the election of 97 deputies in the 110- dates back to the November 1996 referendum by seat assembly. It may take a further three months which the president amended the 1994 Constitution for the remaining thirteen seats to be filled. to enhance his own powers and conversely to The elections have been the subject of reduce that of the Supreme Soviet. Though Western considerable debate among all factions of the states in general did not recognize the validity of the in Belarus since they were changes made by Lukashenka, or the legality of the announced last summer. A division occurred among referendum through which he engineered them, the the opposition between those who felt that the only OSCE AMG in Minsk worked steadily to encourage logical step was to boycott the elections—led by Lukashenka to open the dialogue with the politicians such as Anatolii Lebedka, the chairman opposition. of the United , and Vintsuk Vyachorka, The agreement made in Istanbul obliged the leader of the Belarusian —and Lukashenka to fulfill four conditions: those who have maintained that it was important for opposition leaders to gain a foothold in state • To allow the opposition access to the structures by means of the assembly—such as official media; Nikolay Statkevich, the leader of the Social • To give legislative authority to the Democratic Party, and Henadz Hrushavy, the parliament; chairman of the largest NGO in Minsk, “For the • To provide a democratic election code; Children of Chernobyl.” These leaders planned to • To end political repression that has seen run as independent candidates, without official the arrest and detention of many activists, backing from their respective parties, believing that in addition to the disappearance of several the elections might orient the populace to prominent oppositionists. democratic values.

The OSCE and the Dialogue The decision of Statkevich and Hrushavy was Most notably the Conservative Christian Part)' of supported by the OSCE’s Advisory and Monitoring the , led by the former BPF leader, Zyanon Paznyak. Paznyak has been in exile from Belarus since Group in Minsk, led by Ambassador Hans Georg 1996.

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Lukashenka accepted the notion of consultation and registration of over 60 democratic candidates on the appointed M. Sazonov as the negotiator for the grounds that some of the signatures they had government side. The opposition leaders discovered collected were invaHd, or else they had given in practice that it was impossible for the disparate incorrect information about their financial situation. political leaders to sit at the same table. They Those rejected included virtually all the prominent included, for example, the chairman of the Liberal candidates from the wing of the opposition Democratic Party, Haydukevich, the chairman of movement that supported the elections (Statkevich the Communist Party, Kalyakin, and the leaders of and former Prime Minister MikhaE Chyhir were the the United Civic Party and the Belarusian Popular notable exceptions). Supporters of Hrushavy, for Front (BPF), which itself divided into two branches example, had reportedly collected more than 40 in 1999. Kalyakin’s Communists supported times the required number of signatures for their integration with whereas the other parties candidate. Further, another 200 candidates were not were anxious to protect Belarusian statehood. permitted to run by local election commissions. Haydukevich’s party was virtually a branch of the Those de-registered took their case to the Supreme Russian party of the same name led by Zhirinovsky. Court, which subsequently upheld the decisions of On Lukashenka’s side there was also some cause for the central and local commissions. Those poEticians concern. The logical outcome of the Dialogue was excluded in this fashion then joined in the general the emergence of a group of democratic leaders, boycott caUed for by the opposition. with access to the official media, who might Opposition leaders reported more evidence of eventually be elected to parliament and form a electoral indiscretions. The opposition sent strong enough bloc to prevent the ratification of a observers into most of the electoral districts in the Union Treaty with Russia. Thus the president period 10-15 October. According to Viachorka, 20 resolved to limit the discussions to a few leaders percent of the ballots in the Hrodna region were with whom he could deal adequately or who in cast before 15 October and in Enproper fashion. general supported the same long-term goals as the Students from the Belarusian State Economic government. These included the Yabloko party run University and the Belarusian University of Culture by Olga Abramova and the Liberal Democrats. reported that their faculties were under acute Sazonov was eventually dismissed from his post as pressure to halt classes and force the students to the government spokesman and the talks broke vote. Many professors beEeved that they would lose down. their jobs otherwise. The Vyasna human rights Under these circumstances, and with the political center—s chairman, Ales Belyatsky, noted that the situation at an impasse, the opposition had to make electoral commissions indiscriminately removed a decision whether to participate in the names from the register and aUowed numerous parliamentary elections. An important marker in people to vote without showing identification. The reaching a decision was the All-Belarusian Congress, Electoral Commission itself was formed by the held in Minsk in the summer of 2000. The OSCE’s government and included very few members from Office for Democratic Institutions and Human opposition groups. Notably, despite what appeared Rights sent a small technical group to Belarus to to be obvious falsifications of the election results in observe the elections, while pointing out that this several constituencies, not a single member of the group did not constitute official recognition of the Commission ever admitted to such in the validity of the elections. The Lukashenka independent press or before the courts. government, however, purported to believe According to Yarmoshyna, the official electoral otherwise, choosing to regard the delegation as ipso turnout was 60.6 percent, thus weU above the facto recognition of the electoral process. The minimum requirement of 50 percent, and this , which recently held Senate hearings despite a decision by the more radical opposition about the political repressions in Belarus, took a members to boycott the elections. Official figures hostile stance from the outset and dechned to send indicate that the 50 percent total was reached or any observers. exceeded in 96 out of 110 electoral districts, with 14 Prior to the election, on 15 September, the districts declared invaEd because of insufficient Central Electoral Commission, under the voters. Of these 14 districts, 5 were in the Brest chairmanship of Lidziya Yarmoshyna, rejected the region, 4 in Vitsebsk, and 3 in the city of Minsk. THE HARRIMAN REVIEW

Notably, whereas the 43 candidates who received an A Prelude to the Presidential Elections outright majority in the first round included 22 of 2001 members of the former parliament (Lukashenka The run-off elections on 29 October saw 53 version) and leaders of the KGB and Union of ridings contested and an alleged turnout of just over Patriotic Youth, those with invalidated ballots 50 percent. Prior to the 15 October vote, the included Statkevich of the Social Democratic Party opposition organized protest marches in cities and Serhy Haydukevych, leader of the Liberal across Belarus. Generally, however, the number of Democratic Party of Belarus. those who marched was relatively' small—averaging None of the prominent opposition candidates around 2,000-except in the more politicized city of (with the exception of Abramova) fared very well. Minsk, where an estimated 4,000 demonstrated Chyhir received 23 percent of the vote, well behind against the elections. The opposition held a press Natalia Masherova, daughter of the former conference on 16 October, declaring that the Communist Party leader of Belarus (Petr boycott represented a victory', citing the statement Masherov), who received 48 percent. According to of the US Department of State. The new parliament the authorities, Haydukevich received 10 percent of is a strange collection of deputies. Only' 16 are the vote in his riding, which left him in last place. affiliated with any political party (mostly Kalyakin’s total was 15 percent. The Communists as Communists) and only one major opposition leader a whole, who ran in 71 ridings, won only four seats. has a seat—Olga Abramova, the leader of the The opposition observers dispute the official figures Belarusian branch of the Yabloko faction, which in and particularly those for the percentage of voters: Russia, despite its democratic basis, supports the they maintain that the turnout was about 30-40 integration of Belarus into Russia. percent of the electorate in the towns and up to 45 In some respects, the elections might be written percent in rural areas. In short, they believe that the off as a non-event. The process was controlled by results were falsified. the government, which ensured that very few strong The US assessment of the elections concurs with oppositionists would be able to stand for office. that of the so-called European parliamentary'’ troika: The ultimate result will be another powerless the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, the European assembly, while the president will continue to Parliament, and the Parliamentary Assembly of the control the upper house that he established in late Council of Europe, all of whom resolved to put on 1996. Thus the question arises why' the process was hold any decision to normalize relations with conducted at all, what possible benefits might be Belarus. The representatives acknowledged that the derived from the elections from the government government had made some improvements, but perspective? that overall the elections still fell short of the First and foremost, the elections are widely' standards required. In contrast, Russian president perceived as a foretaste of the presidential election Vladimir Putin—according to Lukashenka—had that must take place by November 2001, according telephoned his congratulations to his Belarusian to the revised Constitution. Those oppositionists counterpart on the conducting of democratic who insisted on running as independent candidates elections. There has, however, been no public often stressed this point, i.e., that if they' abandoned, statement from President Putin to this effect, the electoral process, the electorate would perceive though the Russian Foreign Ministry' praised the them as neglecting its interests and its willingness to elections and the way' in which they were conducted adopt more democratic practices. Hrushavy’s on 18 October. In addition, the Russian parliament comment was that “The people will vote, and they sent a delegation to observe the elections, which will vote for someone.”2 Moreover this school of reported that that they' maintained a high thought maintained that the chances of electoral democratic standard. success in a presidential election if the elections were boycotted would be minimal. The aftermath of the elections sees a variety of groups that are

Authors’ interview with Henadz Hrushavy, Minsk, Belarus, 2 August 2000.

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anticipating the presidential elections a year ahead of the elections. time. These are as follows: 9. A group around former Prune Minister Mikhail Chyhir, who ran in the October elections 1. The OSCE AMG led by Wieck will continue but was defeated in the run-offs. Chyhir and his to play an important role in its efforts to encourage family have suffered repeated harassment and debate between the various opposition centers and detentions from the government, creating the intransigent government. considerable sympathy on his behalf from the 2. A new group called “Citizens’ Committee pubEc. ‘Elections-2001'” has been established It includes 10. The Conservative Christian Party of Zyanon politicians, such as Hrushavy, who are democrats, Paznyak, which has taken the position of non­ but who were denied registration in the October cooperation in any sphere with the government. 2000 elections, and it seeks a leader who can unite 11. Stanislau Shushkevich, the former Speaker of the various opposition sectors and run against parEament and the leader of Belarus in the period Lukashenka. Enmediately after independence. Shushkevich 3. The Supreme Soviet of the 13th Session led by recently appeared on Television’s Vremya Sharetsky has received recognition from the United and announced that he had gathered 700,000 States, which renders it a continuing player in the signatures in support of his candidacy for president. light of the violations of democratic procedure Both he and Paznyak ran for president in the during the elections. On 17 October, Sharetsky, elections of 1994, gaining between them about 22% evidently emboldened by international recognition, of the total vote. called for a “Temporary Government of National 12. The intelEgentsia and poEticians who held Unity,” indicating his likely participation in the the AE-Belarusian Congress in the summer of 2000, process of electing a new president. which accepted resolutions supporting the 4. The democrats on the Right have formed an continued independence of Belarus. There is some umbrella group called New Freedom, which is led overlap between this group and the AElections by Anatoly Lebedka of the United Civic Party and 2001" committee. Vintsuk Vyachorka of the Belarusian Popular Front, 13. A coaEtion of youth organizations, which two politicians who were at the forefront of the includes the Youth Front, the Youth Society, and boycott movement. Lebedka has not commented on the Young Christians Social Union, in addition to speculation that he will run for president, but he has the youth structure of the United Civic Party. created an association of young politicians and appears to be assembling a team in support of his Can the opposition unite its forces to put candidacy. Lebedka has close Enks with several forward a credible candidate to run against American poEticians and has received some Lukashenka? The process of the OSCE Dialogue financial support from such quarters. OfficiaUy, and the parEamentary elections has indicated yet however, Lebedka supports the notion of a single again that there are serious divisions among the candidate from the opposition. opposition, which serve only to bewilder the fragile 5. Haydukevich’s Liberal-Democratic Party will electorate. It seems unEkely that a single candidate continue to play a role. While it is unEkely to acquire might emerge from the plethora of poEtical parties mass popularity, Haydukevich is one of the few and different interest groups described above. The poEticians that have been acceptable to Lukashenka president has already dismissed the possible in the Dialogue process. candidacy of Chyhir, noting that since his former 6. The Communist Party of Kalyakin, which has Premier could not win a seat in the parEament, it is representation, however minEnal, in the new highly unEkely that voters would accept him as a parEament. candidate for the office of president. PoEticians 7. The Social Democratic Hramada led by such as Sharetsky and Paznyak have the perhaps Statkevich, a poEtician who has widespread insurmountable problem of operating from outside recognition from , the European country the country. Paznyak already ran into serious that appears most committed to Belarus problems in this regard in the mock presidential 8. Yabloko led by Abramova, whose standing elections held by the opposition in the spring of has been enhanced despite the lack of credibiEty of 1999. Opinion poUs over the past three years have

4 THE HARRIMAN REVIEW not suggested that the electorate supports strongly must take into account the views of the United any of the various candidates for president, potential States and the countries of Europe, none of which or actual. would support the elimination of Belarusian Is it likely that the government will permit a independence unilaterally by Russia. The decision democratic election for president? Lukashenka may must be seen to come from within Belarus. The take one of two routes: either the “one against all” most democratic route would therefore be a route that was demonstrated effectively by national referendum. However, sociological surveys Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma in October conducted in 1999 revealed that only a minority of 1999, when he successfully ran for re-election in those polled supported the union with Russia, that country; or else the prevention of registration whereas a clear majority favored the continuing for candidate of opposition leaders. Lukashenka independence of the Belarusian state. already appears to be confident of success, and The second possibility is the legitimization of the declared that journalists could anticipate Union by the leadership organs of Belarus. congratulating him on his future victory.3 More However, the situation is complex. Lukashenka’s ominously, however, he has also stated that if the official term as president, according to the 1994 opposition wishes to take part in the presidential Constitution, ended on 20July 1999. The European elections, then it must start to work “constructively” states and the United States have never recogiized with the president.4 the validity of the November 1996 Referendum The parliamentary elections also demonstrated through which Lukashenka expanded his powers that however flawed the process may have been, the and extended his term in office until November Belarusian government is not immune to 2001. Similarly, the smaller version of the parliament international opinion and criticism. This is evident (120 seats rather than 260) that. replaced the from the sharp comments emanating from the Parliament of the 13th Session also lacks Belarusian Foreign Ministry dissenting from the international recognition. For Russia, an act of views of the representative from Europe. union between the two states decreed by the Lukashenka has also been sharply critical of the existing state organs would be unsatisfactory in an Western views on the elections, particularly those of international climate that does not perceive these the United States. Belarus is in an acute economic organs as legitimate. The parliamentary elections of and social crisis and the government is finding it October 2000, however, presented a new possibility increasingly hard to divorce itself from these of making the Union a reality, providing that the problems. Both wages and pensions have fallen to deputies elected were supportive of such an event. an all-time low in dollar values (around $32 and $17 As a result, Russia took a profound interest in the per month respectively). Polls indicate that while procedures and candidates. there is as yet no credible alternative political Lukashenka’s attitude toward the Russia-Belarus candidate to Lukashenka, the population is anxious Union is currently ambiguous. In the Yeltsin era to see measures in place to improve the standard of there seemed to be a realistic hope for the living. Belarusian president that he might ultimately assume the presidency of such a Union. Under Putin, this The Russian Perspective hope has faded. The new Russian president appears The elections illustrated the critical role of more inclined to favor a single territory, i.e., to Russia in the future of Belarus. Though the Russia- incorporate Belarus into Russia as a western Belarus Union, which has gone through several province, without any corresponding body to stages, has run into difficulties, Russia is today the administer the amalgamated state. In such a Russia, only country that provides substantial economic and there would clearly be no role for Lukashenka. political support to the . Consequently, some of Lukashenka’s speeches, Though a majority of Russians favor the paradoxically, have sounded patriotic. He is incorporation of Belarus, the Putin government unwilling, publicly, to give up independence if Belarus is not to be treated as an equal partner. The Putin administration, however, must remain a major player in Belarus and perceives for itself a significant Belarusian Television, 15 October 2000. 4 role now that the United States has so publicly Sovetskaya Beiomssiya, 20 October 2000.

5 THE HARRIMAN REVIEW distanced itself from the authoritarian republic. long been on friendly terms. It is a comparison that The new US ambassador to Belarus, Michael the Belarusian president can ill afford to ignore, Kozak, caused much anger in Minsk official circles though for the moment his position remains secure. with his comment that Belarus today is the “Cuba of Europe.” However, the republic appears to be increasingly isolated, almost a backwater of Soviet- Uladzimir Padhol is Chairman of the Department of style repression amid a sea of general change. With Political Psychology at the Belarusian People’s University in the fall of Slobodan Milosevic in Yugoslav, Minsk. Alyaksander Lukashenka is the only remaining David Marples is Professor of Plistoty at the University dictator of the old Communist style remaining in of Alberta, Canada, and the author of Belarus: A Europe. Opposition demonstrations have frequently Denationalised Nation (1999). made an analogy between the two leaders, who have

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