State repression, nonviolence, and protest mobilization

Alexei I. Anisin

A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy

Department of Government

University of Essex

November 2015

Abstract of dissertation

This four article journal-based dissertation builds on Gene Sharp's framework of nonviolent direct action, along with Hess and Martin's repression backfire, in order to deepen our understanding of how state repression impacts protest mobilization and historical processes of social change. After initially problematizing Gene Sharp’s notions of power and consent with aid of political discourse theory, and two case studies of the 1905 Russian Bloody Sunday Massacre and the South African 1976 Massacre, the dissertation moves onto specifically explain the conditions under which protest mobilization is likely to continue after severe state repression.

A causal process model underpins the logic of the dissertation. It identifies generalizable antecedent factors and conditions under which repression backfire is most likely to occur.

Numerous mechanisms are also introduced that help explain the operation of this process across different historical eras and political systems. After applying this process model and its mechanisms to the 2013 Turkish Gezi protests, a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis of 44 different historical massacres is presented in which repression backfired and increased protest in some cases, but not others. Repression backfire is a highly asymmetrical and nonlinear causal phenomenon. I conclude that nonviolent protest strategy has been a salient factor in historical cases of repression backfire and is also vital for the ability of protests to withstand state repression. However, the role of nonviolence is partial and to some degree inadequate in explaining repression backfire if it is not linked to other general factors which include protest diversity, protest threat level, and geographic terrain.

Table of contents

Introductory section p. 2

The Russian Bloody Sunday Massacre of 1905: A Discursive

Account of Nonviolent Transformation p. 80

Repression and Identity Under : the 1976 Soweto Massacre p. 122

Repression, Spontaneity, and Collective Action: the 2013 Turkish Gezi protests p. 164

The Repression-mobilization Puzzle: a Configurational Analysis of Political Massacres p. 203

Appendix p. 248

Conclusion p. 298

Acknowledgements

Writing a doctoral dissertation is a task that once appeared to be office-based, sedentary and laborious. However, after my first year of conducting research in the Department of Government at the University of Essex, I realized that the years ahead would be full of excitement and a wide encompassing intellectual journey. The intellectual journey, I realized, would not be limited to the time spent writing draft papers or crafting bibliographies. Rather, this journey turned out to be one that included teaching, debating with colleagues, getting advice and critique from

Professors, taking complex analytical training seminars, and going on long trips across Europe and the Atlantic to present research at international conferences. Throughout this journey, I received a great amount of advice from my supervisors, Professor Ward and Professor Howarth, both of whom I would like to thank for their consistent feedback and bold recommendations. I am grateful for the acceptance of two of the four papers of this dissertation for publication at academic journals. Above all, I am thankful for the personal and professional development that I gained during my time at Essex.

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Introductory section

The central topic of this dissertation intersects between three main themes, those of state repression, nonviolence, and protest mobilization. Protest movements have repeatedly brought about transformative events in an array of