THORPEX RESEARCH AND THE SCIENCE OF PREDICTION

D. B. Parsons, M. Beland, D. Burridge, P. Bougeault, G. Brunet, J. Caughey, S. M. Cavallo, M. Charron, H. C. Davies, A. Diongue Niang, V. Ducrocq, P. Gauthier, T. M. Hamill, P. A. Harr, S. C. Jones, R. H. Langland, S. J. Majumdar, B. N. Mills, M. Moncrieff, T. Nakazawa, T. Paccagnella, F. Rabier, J.-L. Redelsperger, C. Riedel, R. W. Saunders, M. A. Shapiro, R. Swinbank, I. Szunyogh, C. Thorncroft, A. J. Thorpe; X. Wang, D. Waliser, H. Wernli, and Z. Toth

THORPEX was a 10-yr international research program designed to accelerate the rate of improvement in the accuracy of predictions of high-impact weather.

he Observing System Research and Predictability Highway Administration (2014) estimates that over Experiment (THORPEX) was designed to 1.3 million weather-related traffic crashes occur T accelerate the rate of improvement in the annually in the United States, injuring more than accuracy of predictions of high-impact weather 480,000 people and causing 6,250 fatalities. from 1 day to 2 weeks for the benefit of society, THORPEX was also motivated by the rapidly the economy, and the environment (Shapiro and growing economic impacts of weather events. For Thorpe 2004). This goal was largely motivated by the example, the United Nation’s Global Assessment desire to reduce fatalities and human suffering from Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (United Nations devastating weather events, which occur worldwide 2013) estimates that the direct economic impact of and include, for example, disasters such as 1) the Black disasters worldwide has exceeded $100 billion per Saturday bushfires in the state of Victoria, Australia, year over the past three years without the inclusion in 1999; 2) the flood and debris flow tragedy brought of uninsured losses. Significant economic impacts about by torrential rains in state of Vargas, Venezuela, from weather also occur apart from major disasters in 1999; 3) Hurricane Katrina in the Gulf Coast of the as the influence of day-to-day weather variability on United States in 2005; 4) the great southern China the U.S. economy was estimated to be approximately ice storm of 2008; 5) Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 3.4% of the gross domestic product (Lazo et al. 2011) 2008; 6) the tornado outbreaks in Joplin, Missouri, or almost $600 billion of annual weather sensitivity and across central Alabama in 2011; 7) Superstorm using the seasonally adjusted numbers for the first Sandy in the eastern United States in 2012; 8) the quarter of 2014. While the improved utilization of widespread flooding in Mozambique in 2000 and weather products will certainly increase economic South Africa in 2010 and early 2011; 9) the central efficiency and reduce casualties, accurate forecasts European floods of June 2013; and 10) Typhoon remain the critical and essential foundation for Hiyan in the Philippines and Southeast Asia in 2014. obtaining these desirable outcomes. One critical path Weather events that are not classified as disasters and, forward is advancing the skill of medium-range (from as such, do not receive widespread media attention 3 days to 10–15 days) forecasts from global numerical are also major sources of injuries and fatalities. For weather prediction (NWP) systems, as such forecasts example, using statistics from 2002–12, the Federal provide early warnings of major hydrometeorological

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY APRIL 2017 | 807 disasters. Advancements in global NWP will also HISTORY OF THE PROGRAM. The earliest foster improvements in forecast skill across a wide THORPEX planning was focused on the concept that range of time scales. For example, global models typi- predictive skill could be improved through employing cally provide the boundary conditions and, in some additional measurements, such as aircraft-deployed cases, the initial state for high-resolution regional dropsondes, in regions where forecast simulations simulations. Thus, advances in global forecast were particularly sensitive to errors in the initial systems will likely lead to improved predictions on state. This adaptive approach was first demonstrated time scales as short as hours. The potential benefits utilizing the datasets collected during the Fronts and of advancing global NWP also extend to weeks and Atlantic Storm Track Experiment (FASTEX) project even months as seasonal forecast models are based, in 1997 (Joly et al. 1997, 1999), the 1999 and 2000 in large part, on NWP systems. Thus, advancing Winter Storm Reconnaissance programs (Szunyogh medium-range prediction provides the potential et al. 2000, 2002), and the North Pacific Experiment for a wide variety of users of weather information (Langland et al. 1999). In an editorial accompanying to obtain a greater range of economic benefits from the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological improved prediction. Society special issue on FASTEX (1999, Vol. 125, No. In response to these challenges, THORPEX 561; Thorpe 1999), Dr. Alan Thorpe called for the was established as a 10-yr program of the World continuation of research to improve the prediction of Weather Research Program (WWRP) of the World damaging extratropical cyclones and for the extension Meteorological Organization (WMO) under the of FASTEX adaptive measurement techniques to the Commission for the Atmospheric Sciences (CAS). Pacific storm track. Subsequently, Dr. Rolf Langland THORPEX established a framework for international was the lead author of an early vision document for cooperation involving networks of researchers from the program in the United States, again urging data operational centers, research institutes, and the impacts studies over the Pacific, which would address academic community as well as the users of forecast North American forecast needs (R. Langland and M. information. THORPEX was the first extensive Shapiro 1999, unpublished manuscript). Community international research effort focused on advancing input from an international workshop in 2000, the the prediction of high-impact weather across the formation of the International Core Steering Com- time scale from one day to two weeks since the mittee (ICSC) in early 2002, an international plan- Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP), ning workshop in March 2002, and a U.S. Tiger Team which began in 1967 and concluded with the Alpine meeting and a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Experiment (ALPEX) field campaign in 1982. Administration (NOAA) planning meeting later

AFFILIATIONS: Parsons, Cavallo, Riedel, and Wang—School and Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada; of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma; Moncrieff—National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Beland—Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Colorado; Paccagnella and Thorpe—Servizio Idro-Meteo-Clima, Canada; Burridge, Caughey, and Nakazawa—World Weather ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy; Rabier—European Centre Research Program, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Switzerland; Bougeault and Ducrocq—Météo-France/CNRS, Redelsperger—Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans, Brest, France; CNRM/GAME, Toulouse, France; Brunet, Saunders, and Swinbank— Shapiro—NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, and National Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Charron—Meteorological Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Szunyogh— Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas; Thorncroft— Quebec, Canada; Davies and Wernli—Institute for Atmospheric and Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Science, University at Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Diongue Niang— Physical Sciences Division, Agence nationale de l’aviation civile et Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York; Waliser— de la météorologie, Dakar-Yoff, Senegal; Gauthier—Département NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California des sciences de la Terre et de l’atmosphère, Université du Québec CORRESPONDING AUTHOR E-MAIL: David B. Parsons, à Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; Hamill and Toth—NOAA/ [email protected]

Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado; Harr— The abstract for this article can be found in this issue, following the table of Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, contents. California; Jones—Deutsche Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany; DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00025.1 Langland—Marine Meteorology Division, Naval Research Laboratory, A supplement to this article is available online (10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00025.2) Monterey, California; Majumdar—Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida; Mills— In final form 26 May 2016 Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, ©2017 American Meteorological Society

808 | APRIL 2017 that same year broadened THORPEX into a major atmospheric research pro- gram with goals that ex- tended well beyond the early focus on adaptive measurements. Drs. Melvyn Shapiro and Alan Thorpe served as the visionary lead authors for the International Science Plan, seeking input from numerous contributing authors and others in the research and operational communities (Shapiro and Thorpe 2004). The Science Plan was completed in 2002 and THORPEX was officially recognized with the establishment of the THORPEX ICSC by the CAS in 2002, with the first meeting of the ICSC in Oslo, Norway, on 15–16 October 2002 (Fig. 1, top; see sidebar “Naming of the program” for a discussion of the THORPEX name). Subsequently in 2003, the 14th Congress of the WMO established “THORPEX: A Global Atmospheric Research Program” as a 10-yr-long international research and development Fig. 1. (top) The first meeting of the ICSC for the WWRP/THORPEX program program with the goal of in Oslo, Norway, on 15–16 Oct 2002. (bottom) The first full meeting of the THORPEX ICSC and the chairs and co-chairs of the Science Advisory Board, accelerating improvements the working groups, and the regional committees was held in Montreal, in the forecasting of high- Canada, on 16–17 Dec 2003. impact weather events. To establish a framework for implementing these broad scientific goals, Dr. David nations, the donations for the trust fund were typically Rogers led a writing team that developed the imple- generated through the national meteorological and mentation plan (Rogers et al. 2005). This plan set mile- hydrometeorological services. Representatives of stones and time lines for specific activities, while also these donor nations, along with representatives from adding to the scientific vision. To provide the funding Australia, Brazil, India, Morocco, Russia, and South for the coordination activities of THORPEX within Africa, comprised the ICSC. The implementation plan the WMO, such as the drafting of the implementation was approved in 2003, leading to THORPEX formally plan and other meetings, workshops, and symposia, commencing on 1 January 2005 with the founding of the THORPEX Trust Fund was also established in the THORPEX International Project Office within 2003. The donor nations included Canada, China, the WWRP. Dr. David Burridge was the founding France, Germany, Japan, Norway, South Korea, the Director of the Project Office, a position that he con- United Kingdom, and the United States. Within these tinued to hold through 2011. Dr. Jim Caughey worked

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY APRIL 2017 | 809 in the Project Office during the entire duration of the to improve forecast skill; 3) data assimilation and program. observing strategies, including a better representation of flow-dependent background error covariances in SCIENTIFIC FOCI AND THE ORGANIZA- the assimilation process; and 4) societal and economic TION OF THE PROGRAM. The Science Plan and applications of improved forecasts, including the im- the presentations to the CAS a