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Natural Disasters Data and Methods Documentation Characterizing National Exposures to Infrastructure from Natural Disasters Data and Methods Documentation Anu Narayanan, Henry H. Willis, Jordan R. Fischbach, Drake Warren, Edmundo Molina-Perez, Chuck Stelzner, Kathleen Loa, Lauren Kendrick, Paul Sorensen, Tom LaTourrette C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/rr1453z1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data ISBN: 978-0-8330-9500-8 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2016 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark Cover Image: © Fotolia/kentoh Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The Department of Homeland Security, National Preparedness and Programs Directorate, Office of Infrastructure Protection, has asked the RAND Corporation to analyze exposures of national infrastructure systems to natural hazards and how these exposures are expected to evolve in response to climate change. RAND’s analysis, which is documented in additional forthcoming reports, takes into account 11 hazards and five infrastructure sectors. This report describes the data and methods used by the RAND team to complete the analysis. The RAND Homeland Security and Defense Center The research in this report was conducted in the Homeland Security and Defense Center (HSDC), which performs analysis to prepare and protect communities and critical infra- structure from natural disasters and terrorism. HSDC projects examine a wide range of risk- management problems, including coastal and border security, emergency preparedness and response, defense support to civil authorities, transportation security, domestic intelligence, and technology acquisition. HSDC clients include the U.S. Department of Homeland Secu- rity, the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Department of Justice, and other organizations charged with security and disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. HSDC is a joint center of two research divisions: RAND Justice, Infrastructure, and Environment and the RAND National Security Research Division. RAND Justice, Infra- structure, and Environment is dedicated to improving policy and decisionmaking in a wide range of policy domains, including civil and criminal justice, infrastructure protection and homeland security, transportation and energy policy, and environmental and natural resource policy. The RAND National Security Research Division conducts research and analysis for all national security sponsors other than the U.S. Air Force and the Army. The division includes the National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center whose sponsors include the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the defense agencies, and the U.S. Department of the Navy. The National Security Research Division also conducts research for the U.S. intelligence commu- nity and the ministries of defense of U.S. allies and partners. Questions or comments about this report should be sent to the project leader, Henry Willis ([email protected]). For more information about HSDC, see www.rand.org/hsdc or contact the director at [email protected]. iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures ...........................................................................................................vii Tables ...........................................................................................................viii Summary ........................................................................................................ ix Acknowledgments ............................................................................................xiii Abbreviations ...................................................................................................xv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1. References ....................................................................................................................................5 CHAPTER TWO Climate-Adjusted Hazards .................................................................................... 7 2.1. Coastal Flooding ............................................................................................ 9 2.1.1. Data Sources ...........................................................................................................................12 2.1.2. Analysis Methods ...................................................................................................................13 2.1.3. References ..............................................................................................................................17 2.2. Extreme Temperature .................................................................................... 20 2.2.1. Data Sources ..........................................................................................................................21 2.2.2. Analysis Methods ..................................................................................................................21 2.2.3. References ..............................................................................................................................24 2.3. Meteorological Drought ..................................................................................25 2.3.1. Data Sources ..........................................................................................................................25 2.3.2. Analysis Methods ..................................................................................................................26 2.3.3. References ..............................................................................................................................30 2.4. Wildfires ....................................................................................................32 2.4.1. Data Sources ..........................................................................................................................32 2.4.2. Analysis Methods ..................................................................................................................32 2.4.3. References ..............................................................................................................................37 v vi Characterizing National Exposures to Infrastructure from Natural Disasters: Data and Documentation CHAPTER THREE Hazards Without Climate Adjustment ....................................................................39 3.1. Earthquakes .................................................................................................39 3.1.1. Data Sources ...........................................................................................................................40 3.1.2. Analysis Methods ...................................................................................................................40 3.1.3. References ...............................................................................................................................41 3.2. Hurricane Winds ......................................................................................... 43 3.2.1. Data Sources ..........................................................................................................................43 3.2.2. Analysis Methods ...................................................................................................................43 3.2.3. References ..............................................................................................................................44 3.3. Ice Storms ...................................................................................................45 3.3.1. Data Sources...........................................................................................................................45 3.3.2. Analysis Methods ...................................................................................................................45 3.3.3. References ..............................................................................................................................47 3.4. Riverine Flooding ......................................................................................... 48 3.4.1. Data Sources...........................................................................................................................49
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