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Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report Impact Forecasting — 2011 Contents

Executive Summary: 2011’s Natural Disaster Events 3

2011 Climate Review 7 2011 Season Review 9 2011 Eastern Season Review 10 2011 Western Pacific Season Review 11 2011 Indian and Southern Pacific Season Review 12 2011 Season Review 13 2011 United States Brushfire Season Review 14

2012 Climate and Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts 15 Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: January – March 2012 16 Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: March – May 2012 17 Historical Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions 18 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks 20

2011 Monthly Catastrophe Review 21 United States 21 Remainder of (, , Bermuda, Islands) 34 America 40 45 50 53 (, and the South Pacific Islands) 68

Appendix A: Tropical System Frequency Correlations 72 Basin (ENSO) 72 Eastern Basin (ENSO) 73 Western Pacific Ocean Basin (ENSO) 74 (ENSO) 75

Appendix B: Historic Global Natural Disaster Events (1980-2011) 76 Top 10 Economic Loss Events 76 Top 10 Insured Loss Events 76 Top 10 Fatality Events 77

Contacts 78

About Impact Forecasting 79

About Aon Benfield 79 Impact Forecasting

Executive Summary: 2011’s Natural Disaster Events

The world endured a very active year in 2011, marked by a series of devastating natural disaster events. suffered from a historic earthquake and tsunami that left nearly 16,000 people dead. The greater Christchurch metropolitan in New Zealand faced a major rebuilding effort after being struck by two separate earthquakes. Extraordinary severe weather outbreaks in the United States spawned a record number of tornadoes, damaging winds and destructive hail. Major flooding covered vast areas of , while floods also impacted parts of Australia, North America and . made in the United States, the first U.S. landfalling hurricane since 2008. Ten additional occurred worldwide. 2011 was the eleventh warmest year in since temperature data began being recorded in 1880.

Global natural disaster activity in 2011 produced 253 separate events that caused significant impacts to various parts of the world. The 253 events (defined as natural meteorological or climatological occurrences that caused noteworthy insurance losses, economic losses, human casualties or a large humanitarian impact) aggregated to an economic loss of USD435 billion and insured losses of USD107 billion. The economic losses in 2011 make it the costliest natural disaster year on record. The insured losses incurred in 2011 make it the second costliest year on record – second only to 2005’s USD120 billion, which was dominated by the USD90 billion in losses causedby major hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

Asia, the United States and Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific Islands) endured the majority of insured losses in 2011 due to historic earthquakes in Asia and Oceania, widespread springtime U.S. severe weather, and flooding in Asia and Oceania. The economic losses were dominated by the Japan earthquake and tsunami, which became the costliest economic natural disaster event on record. Extensive flooding in , two earthquake strikes in New Zealand and numerous severe weather outbreaks in the United States each led to significant economic losses as well.

Of the top 10 insured natural catastrophe events in 2011, four were severe weather events (tornadoes, hail or damaging winds), three were earthquake events, two were flood events and one was a tropical cyclone event. The costliest insured loss and economic loss event of the year was the Japan earthquake and tsunami, which caused an estimated USD35 billion in insured losses and approximately USD210 billion in economic losses. The magnitude-9.0 earthquake and subsequent tsunami occurred on March 11th, and led to the deaths of at least 15,844 people in Japan alone.

Exhibit 1 shows the Top 10 Insured Loss Events in 2011 that caused a combined USD86.25 billion in losses, or nearly 81 percent of the year’s insured loss total. The remaining USD20.90 billion was a combination of losses from winter weather, severe weather, flooding, tropical , earthquakes, , volcano eruptions and wildfires.

3 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Exhibit 1: Top 10 Insured Loss Events in 2011

# Of # Of Structures/ Economic Loss Insured Loss Event Date Event Name Or Type Event Location Deaths Claims Estimates (USD) Estimates (USD)

3/11 Earthquake Japan 15,844 1,100,000 210.00 billion 35.00 billion

2/22 Earthquake New Zealand 182 156,313 *30.00 billion 13.50 billion

7/25-11/30 Flooding Thailand 790 4,000,000 45.00 billion 10.78 billion

4/22-4/28 Severe Weather U.S. (Southeast, Plains, Midwest) 344 700,000 10.20 billion 7.30 billion

5/21-5/27 Severe Weather U.S. (Plains, Midwest, Southeast) 181 750,000 9.10 billion 6.75 billion

8/22-8/30 HU Irene U.S., Bahamas, Caribbean Isl. 46 835,000 8.55 billion 5.00 billion

12/21-1/14 Flooding Australia () 36 58,463 30.00 billion 2.42 billion

4/3-4/5 Severe Weather U.S. (Midwest, Southeast, Plains) 9 225,000 2.80 billion 2.00 billion

6/13 Earthquake New Zealand 1 53,963 *30.00 billion 1.80 billion

4/14-4/16 Severe Weather U.S. (Plains, Southeast, Midwest) 48 150,000 2.50 billion 1.70 billion

All Other Events 86.69 billion 20.90 billion

Totals 434.84 billion 107.15 billion

*The New Zealand government has only released a combined USD30 billion economic loss total for the September 2010, February 2011 and June 2011 EQ events.

Exhibit 2: Top 10 Human Fatality Events in 2011

# Of Structures/ Economic Loss Event Date Event Name Or Type Event Location # Of Deaths Claims Estimates (USD)

3/11 Earthquake Japan 15,844 1,100,000 210.00 billion 12/16-12/17 TS Washi 1,257 48,499 31.70 million 1/10-1/14 Flooding Brazil 903 21,500 1.20 billion 7/29-11/30 Flooding Thailand 790 4,000,000 45.00 billion 10/23 Earthquake 604 15,000 750.00 million 8/12-9/30 Flooding Pakistan 520 1,600,000 2.00 billion 4/22-4/28 Severe Weather Southeast, Plains, Midwest 344 700,000 10.20 billion 9/10-10/31 Flooding Cambodia 250 250,000 521.00 million 6/1-6/24 Flooding 239 500,000 6.65 billion 10/19-10/21 TS 02B 215 8,000 1.70 million

The overall number of fatalities recorded in 2011 as a result of The most deadly event in 2011 was the March 11th Japan natural disasters was approximately 24,500, with at least eight earthquake and tsunami event. The main tremor and subsequent separate events killing a minimum of 250 people. The 2011 total tsunami killed at least 15,844 people in Japan (3,451 others was well below the number seen in 2010, when an estimated officially remained listed as missing) and also caused dozens of 303,000 people lost their lives. The 2010 number was elevated additional fatalities elsewhere around the outer rim of the Pacific due to the roughly 230,000 people that were killed in the Haiti Ocean. This event became the fifth deadliest earthquake event in earthquake and an additional 56,000 people who died in Russia Japan’s recorded history, only surpassed by temblors which struck as a result of a dangerous heat wave and wildfires. in 1923, 1896, 1707 and 1293. Exhibit 2 shows the top 10 human fatality events in 2011, as caused by natural disasters.

4 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 3: Top 10 Structural Damage and Filed Claim Events in 2011

# Of Structures/ Economic Loss Event Date Event Name Or Type Event Location # Of Deaths Claims Estimates (USD)

7/29-11/30 Flooding Thailand 790 4,000,000 45.00 billion

8/12-9/30 Flooding Pakistan 520 1,600,000 2.00 billion

3/11 Earthquake Japan 15,844 1,100,000 210.00 billion

8/22-8/30 HU Irene U.S., Bahamas, Caribbean Isl. 46 835,000 8.55 billion

5/21-5/27 Severe Weather Plains, Midwest, Southeast 181 750,000 9.10 billion

4/22-4/28 Severe Weather Southeast, Plains, Midwest 344 700,000 10.20 billion

3/21-4/8 Flooding Thailand 61 609,967 880.00 million

6/1-6/24 Flooding China 239 500,000 6.65 billion

1/1-5/31 Flooding Colombia 116 375,000 5.85 billion

7/27-7/30 TY Nock-ten Philippines, China, 94 340,000 126.00 million

Exhibit 3 shows the top 10 catastrophe events in terms of structures damaged or destroyed in 2011.

The most destructive and damaging event in 2011 was the The United States set an official record for the number of billion- widespread flooding that affected much of Thailand between dollar economic loss events in 2011. According to the National July and November. The floods left at least 790 people dead Climatic Data Center (NCDC), at least 12 events officially broke and damaged or destroyed more than four million homes, the billion-dollar threshold — surpassing the previous record (9) manufacturing facilities, businesses and other structures. The set in 2008. However, it should be noted that data collected for economic and insured losses sustained during the floods made this report suggests that as many as 17 events surpassed USD1 this the costliest natural disaster event in Southeast Asia’s billion in economic losses during 2011 in the U.S. Of the 17 history. Other substantial events which led to more than one events in 2011, more than half (9) were severe weather-related. million structures sustaining damage or more than one million The other eight were caused by flooding (3), winter weather (2), claims being filed was a flood event in Pakistan and the Japan tropical cyclones (2) and drought/wildfires (1). earthquake and tsunami. In Pakistan, this marks the second year in a row where more than one million homes were damaged or Outside of the United States, the 20 other billion-dollar destroyed as a result of catastrophic flooding. economic loss events were found in Asia (10), Oceania (4), Europe (2) and South America (2). Two additional events 2011 produced 37 separate global natural disaster events that had occurred in North America. economic losses that exceeded USD1 billion. Of the 37 billion- dollar economic loss events, at least 10 were in excess of USD5 The costliest individual global economic events by natural billion. When comparing to 2010, the number of billion-dollar disaster type in 2011 were: events in 2011 was actually 16 percent less than the 43 seen • Earthquake: Japan (March 11) — USD210 billion the year before. However, the ten events with economic losses • Flooding: Thailand (July - November) — USD45 billion beyond USD5 billion was one more than the nine seen in 2010. • Severe Weather: United States (April 22-28) — USD10.2 billion • Tropical Cyclone: United States, Bahamas, Caribbean Islands (August 22-30) — USD8.55 billion • Winter Weather: United States (October 28-30) — USD3 billion • Drought/Wildfires: United States (January – December) — USD10 billion

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Exhibit 4: Total Economic and Insured Losses by Percentage in 2011

2% 0% 1% 0% 3% Earthquake 3% 4% 8% Flooding 8% Severe Weather Tropical Cyclone Drought/Wildfire 24% 48% Winter Weather 24% 59% Other

16%

Economic Losses Insured Losses

Exhibit 4 shows the breakdown of economic and insured losses (by percentage) as separated by natural disaster type.

Of the 37 global economic loss events, 17 had insured losses Outside of the United States, the eight other billion-dollar greater than USD1 billion in 2011, representing a 70 percent insured loss events included four in Oceania, three in Asia and increase from the 10 events that occurred at or above the one in Europe. The losses outside of the U.S. were dominated USD1 billion threshold in 2010. Of the 17 billion-dollar insured by the Japan earthquake and tsunami event, which became the loss events in 2011, at least five were above USD5 billion. There second costliest insured loss event in world history (second was only one such insured loss event in 2010, which was the only to ). New Zealand sustained its costliest Chile earthquake. 2005 remains the world’s costliest year from insured loss events in history when two earthquakes struck the perspective of insured losses, primarily due to the United the greater Christchurch metropolitan region in February and States enduring three landfalling major hurricanes (Katrina, June. The other five billion-dollar insured loss events were Rita and Wilma). Cyclone Yasi’s landfall in Queensland, Australia, a flooding event in Queensland, Australia, the historic flooding in Thailand, The United States saw nine separate billion-dollar insured loss ’s landfall in Japan and significant flooding in events in 2011, more than doubling the four experienced during southern and northern . 2010. Of the nine events, six alone were caused by severe weather. The overall total amount of insured losses that were attributed to convective storms set an all-time record in the U.S. The other three billion-dollar insured events in the U.S. included Hurricane Irene, flooding along the River Basin and a late-January/early-February winter storm.

6 Impact Forecasting

2011 Climate Review

2011 was the 34th consecutive year of above average global temperatures. Using data provided by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) through November, 2011 combined land and ocean temperatures for the averaged nearly 0.52°C (0.94°F) above the long-term mean, making 2011 the eleventh warmest year ever recorded since official data on global temperatures began being kept back in 1880. The year 2010 remains the warmest year on record, when the combined global temperature reached 0.64°C (1.15°F) above average. The last below-average year for the globe was recorded in 1976, when global temperatures registered 0.09°C (0.16°F) below average.

Exhibit 5: Global Land and Ocean Temperature Anomalies: 1900-2011

1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7

Temperature Departure from Average ( º C) Departure Average from Temperature -0.8 -0.9 -1.0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Various ocean oscillations often influence the amount of 2011 was the sixth consecutive year with below average tropical warming or cooling that takes place in a given year. The El Niño/ cyclone development across all global basins, with only 39 Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is a warming or cooling of the total hurricanes, and cyclones (sustained winds of at waters across the central Pacific, leading to a drastic change in least 74 mph (119 kph)), 21 major storms (Category 3 or higher the orientation of the upper atmospheric storm track. Warming with sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) and 11 periods are noted as El Niño cycles, while cooling periods are landfalling hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones. Based on the known as La Niña cycles. 2011 started with a moderate La Niña 25-year average, approximately 47 hurricanes, typhoons and phase that developed in July 2010. The La Niña phase gradually cyclones typically develop—24 of which strengthen to at or weakened during the first few months of 2011 after reaching above Category 3 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind peak intensity during the months of October, November and Scale. On average, approximately 18 hurricanes, typhoons December 2010. As the weakening continued, a transition to and cyclones make landfall across the world. 2011 tied 1988 as an ENSO-neutral phase occurred in May. The neutral phase having the third-lowest total of named storms over the last 25 maintained for the majority of the summer, before signs of a years with 76. The 25-year average is approximately 87. return to La Niña began in September. NOAA officially declared the return of La Niña in early September, while forecasting the cycle to strengthen and maintain through the upcoming winter season. The Niño-3.4 Index, which measures the temperature of the ocean waters in the central Pacific, is used to determine ENSO cycles.

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Exhibit 6: Global Tropical System Activity (>74 mph) over the Last 25 Years

80 Global Tropical Systems (>74 mph) Average = 47.4 70

60

50

40

30 Tropical Systems Tropical

20

10

0

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

Exhibit 7: 2011 Regional Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Activity Frequency Compared to 25-Year Average Values

Region All Named Storms All Tropical Activity Category 3+ Tropical Activity Landfalling Tropical Activity (>39 mph) (>74 mph) (>111 mph) (>74 mph)

Average 2011 % Average 2011 % Average 2011 % Average 2011 %

Atlantic/Caribbean 13.2 19 44% 6.9 7 2% 3.0 3 0% 3.0 1 -67%

East Pacific 15.5 11 -29% 8.5 10 18% 4.2 6 43% 1.3 1 -22%

West Pacific 26.0 20 -23% 16.6 10 -40% 9.2 7 -24% 9.2 6 -35%

Indian/South Pacific 32.4 26 -20% 15.4 12 -22% 7.8 5 -36% 4.2 3 -29%

Global 87.1 76 -13% 47.4 39 -18% 24.2 21 -13% 17.7 11 -38%

The following sections detail each region’s tropical system production in 2011 compared to normal and the notable storms that developed and adversely affected countries bordered by these .

8 Impact Forecasting

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review

2011’s Atlantic Hurricane Season was very active, tying 1887, The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season began with eight consecutive 1995 and 2010 as the third-busiest year on record in terms of tropical storms, becoming the first year in history (since official the number of named storms that developed. When compared records began in 1851) to see that many systems develop without to a 25-year average of 13.2 named storms, 2011 produced 44 reaching hurricane-strength. Irene became the first hurricane percent more than normal, with 19 named storms occurring of the season, passing through the eastern Caribbean before between June and November. Of these 19 named storms, 7 affecting the Bahamas as a Category 3 storm. The hurricane hurricanes developed during the season which was right on weakened before making the first of three U.S. landfalls in North par with the average of 6.9 hurricanes. 2005 remains the year Carolina. Katia was the season’s strongest storm, reaching with the most hurricanes when 15 occurred. Three hurricanes Category 4 strength but it never posed any threat to land. became major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher), which fell Hurricanes Maria and Ophelia affected parts of the Canadian directly in line with the 25-year average of 3.0. Only one Maritimes, but lost tropical characteristics upon their arrival. hurricane made landfall across the Caribbean and the United reached Category 2 strength but weakened to a States, which is below the average of 3.0. 2011 marks the tropical storm before making landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. In sixth consecutive year in which the United States did not see a its post-season analysis, the National Hurricane Center upgraded landfalling major hurricane. Tropical Storm Nate to hurricane status.

2011’s Atlantic Hurricane Season was influenced by neutral conditions from the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and also the late season return of a weak La Niña. La Niña promotes favorable conditions in the upper atmosphere for tropical development. Warm ocean surface temperatures also promoted development of tropical systems across the Atlantic Ocean Basin. See Appendix A for information on hurricane frequency as it relates to the ENSO cycle.

Exhibit 8: Atlantic Hurricanes over the Last 25 Years

20 Atlantic Hurricanes Average = 6.9

15

10 Hurricanes

5

0

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

9 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

2011 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Review 2011’s Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season was rather quiet, with The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season started with the formation only 11 named storms or 29 percent below the average of 15.5 of five consecutive hurricanes, with three of the five reaching named storms. However, of the 11 named storms, 10 became Category 4 strength. Of the five hurricanes, only Beatriz (with hurricanes. This is 19 percent above the 25-year average of 8.4. Category 1 winds) grazed the Mexican coast but did not officially The total is also the highest number of hurricanes produced in come ashore. Hurricane Dora, which developed in late July, was the Eastern Pacific Ocean Basin since 2006, when 11 developed. the basin’s strongest of the season with maximum sustained Six of 2011’s hurricanes strengthened to major hurricane status, winds reaching just below Category 5 strength at 155 mph (250 43 percent above the 25-year average of 4.2. Only one hurricane kph). The system remained in the open waters of the Pacific. made landfall during the season. Hurricanes Greg, Hillary, Irwin and Kenneth also developed but remained well offshore. The lone landfalling hurricane of The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) again played a role in the season was Hurricane Jova, which came ashore in western this year’s activity. Because of increased upwelling of cold waters Mexico as a Category 2 system in early October. The most in the western and central Pacific waters due to a transition from notable tropical system of the season, however, was Tropical neutral conditions to a La Niña phase of ENSO, tropical system Depression 12-E. The cyclone came ashore in southern Mexico production was adversely affected during the latter half of the with minimal sustained winds, but the system’s slow-moving season. See Appendix A for information on hurricane frequency remnants brought torrential rains that led to a large number of as it relates to the ENSO cycle. casualties across .

Exhibit 9: Eastern Pacific Hurricanes over the Last 25 Years

20 Eastern Pacific Hurricanes Average = 8.5

15

10 Hurricanes

5

0

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

10 Impact Forecasting

2011 Western Review Typhoon activity across the Western Pacific Ocean Basin was storm with maximum sustained winds of 250 kph (155 mph), below the long-term average for the sixth consecutive year in which later made a final landfall in . The Philippines’ 2011. A total of 20 named storms developed during the season, most devastating cyclone of the season was , 23 percent below the 25-year average of 26.0. Of those storms, a Category 3 typhoon that struck in late September and was 10 typhoons formed, which is 37 percent below the 25-year quickly followed by Super less than one week average of 16.6. Seven of the 10 typhoons reached Category later. Both systems would make landfall in China, but with much 3 (or higher) strength, approximately 23 percent below the weaker strength. 25-year average of 9.1. Of the 10 typhoons that developed, six made landfall, or 35 percent below the 25-year average of 9.2. The two strongest typhoons of the season in the Western Pacific Basin (Super Typhoons Muifa and Songda) were both Category The Philippines experienced another active season, with four 5 systems with maximum sustained winds of 260 kph (160 mph). typhoons making landfall (in addition to one near landfall) in Both weakened considerably prior to landfall in South 2011. The first typhoon to come ashore in the archipelago was (Muifa) and Japan (Songda) at tropical storm-strength. Another Nock-ten, a Category 1 typhoon that moved across northern notable typhoon this season was Typhoon Roke, at one time a Island in late July. This typhoon would eventually cross Category 4 cyclone, which struck Japan in late September with China’s Island and northern Vietnam before its remnants 170 kph (105 mph) winds. Typhoon Ma-on also made landfall(s) combined with seasonal rains to trigger extensive in Japan with Category 1 strength. flooding in Thailand. The strongest storm to make landfall in the Philippines was Super , a Category 4

Exhibit 10: Western Pacific Typhoons over the Last 25 Years

40 Western Pacific Hurricanes Average = 16.6 35

30

25

20 Typhoons 15

10

5

0

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

11 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

2011 and Southern Pacific Cyclone Season Review

For the fourth consecutive year, the Indian Ocean and the the tropical activity in the South Pacific and South Indian Ocean Southern Pacific Ocean basins saw below average tropical basins surrounding Australia generally remained over open cyclone activity. A total of 26 named storms developed in the waters and did not have any direct impacts. Cyclones Carlos and region, 20 percent below the 25-year average of 32.4. Of those Dianne brought periods of heavy rainfall to in storms, 12 cyclones formed, or 22 percent below the 25-year late February but only had tropical storm-strength winds at the average of 15.4. Five of these cyclones reached Category 3 or time of impact. higher strength, which is approximately 36 percent below the 25-year average of 7.8. Out of the cyclones, only two made Outside of Australia, two notable tropical systems occurred landfall, or 52 percent below the 25-year average of 4.2. in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean basins in 2011. Cyclone Wilma, at one time a Category 4 storm with 215 kph (135 mph) Only one system made landfall in Australia in 2011, though it winds, affected both and the of New Zealand became the second costliest tropical cyclone on record to strike in late January. The system, a tropical storm at the time in both the country (second only to 1974’s Cyclone Tracy). Cyclone Yasi, occurrences, brought heavy rains. In , Cyclone the basin’s strongest system of the season, officially made landfall Bingiza made landfall in mid-February as a Category 3 storm with in early February at peak intensity with maximum sustained 185 kph (115 mph) winds. The third (and last) landfalling cyclone winds of 250 kph (155 mph). The storm quickly weakened over of the year in the basin came in late December, when Cyclone northern Queensland though its remnants later trekked across Thane came ashore in southern India as a Category 1 storm. parts of the and . The rest of

Exhibit 11: Indian Ocean & South Pacific Cyclones over the Last 25 Years

30 Indian Ocean & South Pacific Cyclones Average = 15.4

25

20

15 Cyclones

10

5

0

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

12 Impact Forecasting

2011 United States Tornado Season Review

2011 was one of the most active tornado years on record in the overall since unofficial tallies began in 1875. The vast majority United States. The (SPC) in Norman, of the fatalities occurred in the months of April and May (540), counted approximately 1,718 tornadoes through following a series of historic tornado outbreaks that ravaged late-December, compared to 1,282 in 2010, 1,156 in 2009 and central and eastern sections of the country. a 25-year average of 1,203. 2011’s count was 43 percent above the 25-year average. There were six EF-5 tornadoes in 2011, tying In a year with dozens of killer tornadoes, the single-deadliest 1974 for most F5 or EF-5 tornadoes on record in a single year. came in Joplin, on May 22nd. At least 162 fatalities 2011 became the first year since 1998 that the U.S. saw more were blamed directly and indirectly on the EF-5 twister as winds than one EF-5 tornado touch down. reached 250 mph (405 kph) at their peak, causing catastrophic damage throughout the city. Joplin was the deadliest U.S. A total of 59 killer tornadoes (tornadoes that caused fatalities) tornado since 1947 and also the costliest single tornado in world occurred across the United States in 2011. This total represents a history. The deadliest day in 2011 came on April 27th when no substantial increase from 2010, when 21 were recorded, and an fewer than eight tornadoes left a minimum of 10 people dead. In even greater disparity when comparing to 2009’s nine. The killer , the Hackleburg EF-5 tornado, with 210 mph (340 kph) tornadoes of 2011 caused 553 fatalities, which is tremendously winds, killed 72 people over a 106.9-mile (172.0-kilometer) path higher than the 25-year average of approximately 75. The that covered five counties; while the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham number of tornado-related fatalities in 2011 marks the deadliest EF-4 twister with 190 mph (305 kph) winds killed 64. year since official records began being kept by the in 1950, and tied for the second deadliest year

Exhibit 12: United States Tornadoes over the Last 25 Years

2000 U.S. Tornadoes Average = 1,203

1500

1000 Tornadoes

500

0

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

13 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

2011 United States Brushfire Season Review In 2011, the number of brushfires across the United States was The year began with below average wildfire incidents and below the 25-year average, while the number of acres burned below average acreage burned in January before activity began per fire was above average. The National Interagency Fire Center to steadily increase in February and March. In April, while (NIFC) in Boise, reported approximately 73,484 wildfires the number of incidents was slightly below average, the total burning 8,706,852 acres (3,526,275 hectares) through late- number of acres burned far outpaced the long-term average December, compared to 71,971 fires burning 3,422,724 acres due to significant fires burning across the southern half of the (1,386,203 hectares) in 2010 and a 25-year average of 76,134 country – particularly in parts of , Oklahoma, New Mexico fires burning 4,950,942 acres (2,005,132 hectares). Exhibit 13 and Arizona. The fires were aided by a lengthy drought which shows that the 2011 wildfire season burned an average of 118.48 persisted across the region, in combination with above average acres (47.99 hectares) per fire, significantly above the 25-year temperatures, low humidity, gusty winds and extremely low soil average of 64.66 acres (26.19 hectares) per fire. This is the largest moisture levels. By May, heightened fire activity and coverage burn rate since 2005, when an average of 130.17 acres (52.72 remained as the Wallow Fire in Arizona became the largest fire in hectares) burned with each fire. The lowest burn rate occurred state history. Between June and August, the total number of fires in 1998, when an average of 16.41 acres (6.64 hectares) burned stayed slightly below average though the acres burned were within each fire, mainly due to excessive precipitation across well above average. early in the year caused by a strong El Niño cycle. The focus shifted to Texas in early September, as the Bastrop Complex Fire destroyed 1,645 homes and became the costliest and most destructive wildfire in state history. The last quarter of the year (October, November and early December) saw near normal numbers of fires and acres burned.

Exhibit 13: United States Acreage per Brushfire over the Last 25 Years

140 Acres Per Fire Average = 64.66 120

100

80

Acres 60

40

20

0

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

14 Impact Forecasting

2012 Climate and Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts

Exhibit 14: Phases of the El Niño / Southern Oscillation

Normal Conditions El Niño Conditions La Niña Conditions

One of the main influential factors for the globe’s annual During La Niña conditions, the surface winds will climate conditions is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), strengthen, promoting additional cooler water to be upwelled an anomalous warming or cooling of the central Pacific Ocean from the depths of the Pacific Ocean up to the surface and waters that generally occurs every three to seven years, mainly forced westward. This forces activity across during the months of August through February. the Pacific Ocean westward and often brings fewer tropical systems to the central and eastern Pacific regions. Because of During neutral conditions, surface trade winds blow from the the waters’ influence of the upper atmospheric jet stream, La east and force cooler waters that are upwelled from the deeper Niña’s effects, like El Niño’s effects, are experienced worldwide. depths of the Pacific Ocean to the surface across the western The main effects are usually noted across the western Pacific coast of South America. Because of the displacement of water regions, where wetter conditions are expected, especially during flowing to the west, the ocean is up to 60 centimeters (two feet) the beginning months of the year. Wet and cool conditions higher in the western Pacific Ocean as it is in the eastern Pacific are typical across and eastern South America Ocean. The warmer waters are forced into the western portions between December and February. With the polar jet stream of the ocean, allowing thunderstorm activity to occur across the displaced further south, cool and wet conditions occur across western half of the Pacific Ocean. the northern half of the North America West Coast, while dry During El Niño conditions, the surface trade winds that normally and mild conditions are experienced for the southern half of the blow from east to west weaken and sometimes even reverse United States into . If La Niña’s cycle continues direction. This allows the warmer waters to remain or even into June, July and August, warm and wet conditions often occur traverse eastward, bringing more frequent thunderstorm activity across and the southern half of Asia, while cool and to the central and eastern portions of the Pacific Ocean. Warm wet conditions are found across the southern portions of the and very wet conditions typically occur across Peru, Ecuador, Caribbean Ocean. Brazil and from December through April. Portions of The following pages contain maps that depict the most likely Central America, Colombia and the Amazon River Basin are dry, occurrences of above and below average temperatures and as are southeastern Asia and most of Australia. In Africa, El Niño’s precipitation from January through May across the world. See effects range from wetter-than-average conditions across eastern the appendix for El Niño’s and La Niña’s effects on tropical portions to warmer and drier-than-average conditions across system frequency for the Pacific and Atlantic . southern portions. In North America, the polar jet stream (the jet stream that is responsible for outbreaks) is usually pushed northward, keeping cold Arctic air across the northern portions of Canada. Warmer-than-average temperatures typically occur across the and southern Canada. The subtropical jet stream, which usually sinks southward during the winter months, will drift northward and bring a succession of storm systems across the southern tier of the U.S. and northern Mexico.

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Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: January – March 2012

Exhibit 15: Temperature Outlook: January – March 2012

Temperature Legend

Much Above Normal Above Normal Below Normal Much Below Normal

Exhibit 16: Precipitation Outlook: January – March 2012

Temperature Legend

Much Above Normal Above Normal Below Normal Much Below Normal

As of December 2011, weak La Niña conditions continued across the central Pacific Ocean. These conditions are expected to persist through the first few months of 2012. However, after January, the computer climate models have begun to indicate that the current La Niña phase may start to weaken in February. Despite the possibility of La Niña gradually weakening, it is expected to remain through March.

16 Impact Forecasting

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: March – May 2012

Exhibit 17: Temperature Outlook: March – May 2012

Temperature Legend

Much Above Normal Above Normal Below Normal Much Below Normal

Exhibit 18: Precipitation Outlook: March – May 2012

Temperature Legend

Much Above Normal Above Normal Below Normal Much Below Normal

As the La Niña phase continues to weaken and transition towards ENSO-neutral conditions, its effects will likely persist through March, April and May. Typical conditions associated with La Niña will be found across the southern Plains in the United States as warmer than average temperatures and well below normal precipitation will occur. Warmer temperatures will also be likely for parts of , Europe and northern Africa. On the other extreme, there is a possibility for a return of wetter than average and cooler conditions across parts of Southeast Asia. Cooler conditions may also be found in parts of northern Australia, South America and southern Canada.

17 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Historical Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions Abundant media coverage is given to various organizations Some of these entities disclose in detail the parameters being across the world that issue hurricane season predictions for the used to derive these forecasts, while others cite general Atlantic Ocean Basin. These organizations utilize meteorological factors for the reasoning of their predictions. CSU and TSR and climatic data obtained, in some instances, up to six months provide specific numbers for each year’s forecasts, while NOAA in advance to determine how active or inactive the Atlantic provides a range of values. Hurricane Season will be in the upcoming year. Several different professional entities issue these forecasts, ranging from The forecasts for the last five years made between the period governmental agencies to universities to private companies. of May 1st and June 10th along with the actual total number of Three organizations which consistently make their forecasts named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes are shown in available to the public are: the following tables. The May/June forecast was chosen due to the availability of forecasts from each organization. Additionally, • Colorado State University (CSU), a forecast group sponsored a five-year cumulative forecast is shown to emphasize that by Colorado State University and private companies that is long-term forecasting may yield more information on general led by Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray frequency shifts than short-term forecasting.

• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United States’ official governmental climatological and meteorological office

• Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), an Aon Benfield-sponsored forecast group based in London, England led by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr. Adam Lea

Exhibit 19: 2011 Forecast

May / June Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Forecast Parameter 25-Year Average CSU NOAA TSR Season Total

Named Storms 13.1 16 12-18 14 19

Hurricanes 6.8 9 6-10 8 7

Major Hurricanes 3.0 5 3-6 4 3

Exhibit 20: 2010 Forecast

May / June Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Forecast Parameter 25-Year Average CSU NOAA TSR Season Total

Named Storms 13.1 18 14-23 18 19

Hurricanes 6.8 10 8-14 10 12

Major Hurricanes 3.0 5 3-7 4 5

18 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 21: 2009 Forecast

May / June Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Forecast Parameter 25-Year Average CSU NOAA TSR Season Total

Named Storms 13.1 11 9-14 11 9

Hurricanes 6.8 5 4-7 5 3

Major Hurricanes 3.0 2 1-3 2 2

Exhibit 22: 2008 Forecast

May / June Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Forecast Parameter 25-Year Average CSU NOAA TSR Season Total

Named Storms 13.1 15 12-16 14 16

Hurricanes 6.8 8 6-9 8 8

Major Hurricanes 3.0 4 2-5 3 5

Exhibit 23: 2007 Forecast

May / June Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Forecast Parameter 25-Year Average CSU NOAA TSR Season Total

Named Storms 13.1 17 13-17 16 15

Hurricanes 6.8 9 7-10 9 6

Major Hurricanes 3.0 5 3-5 4 2

Exhibit 24: 5-Year Cumulative Forecast

May / June Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

25-Year Total CSU NOAA TSR 5-Year Forecast Parameter Season Total

Named Storms 66 77 60-88 73 78

Hurricanes 34 41 31-50 40 36

Major Hurricanes 15 21 12-26 17 17

19 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks CSU and TSR release forecasts for the following year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season in early December, and these forecasts are shown below in the following exhibits.

Exhibit 25: CSU 2012 Atlantic Basin Climatology (issued December 7th)

Forecast Parameter CSU Average Year

Named Storms 12.0

Named Storm Days 60.1

Hurricanes 6.5

Hurricane Days 21.3

Major Hurricanes 2.0

Major Hurricane Days 3.9

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 103%

*Please note that beginning in December 2011, CSU has decided to suspend providing quantitative outlooks for specific numbers of named storms, hurricanes and major (Category 3+) hurricanes in their December analysis.

Exhibit 26: TSR 2012 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Forecast (issued December 7th)

Forecast Parameter TSR Average Year TSR Forecast

Named Storms 10.6 (±4.2) 14.1 (±4.2)

Hurricanes 6.2 (±2.7 6.7 (±3.0)

Major Hurricanes 2.7 (±1.9) 3.3 (±1.6)

Exhibit 27: TSR 2012 Hurricane Landfall Forecast (issued December 7th)

Forecast Parameter TSR Average Year TSR Forecast

U.S. Named Storms 3.1 (±2.0) 4.3 (±2.2)

U.S. Hurricanes 1.5 (±1.3 1.8 (±1.5)

20 Impact Forecasting

2011 Monthly Catastrophe Review

United States

• Historic April and May severe weather outbreaks cause catastrophic damage and large loss of life

• Hurricane Irene becomes first landfalling U.S. hurricane since 2008

• Flooding across the Mississippi and Basins cause billions (USD) in damage

Exhibit 28: United States January Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Event Date Event Name Or Type Event Location # Of Deaths Claims Estimates (USD)

12/31-1/1 Severe Weather Midwest, Southeast 8+ 10,000+ Millions+

1/7-1/12 Winter Weather Midwest, Southeast, Notheast 11+ Thousands+ Millions+

1/17-1/24 Winter Weather Plains, Midwest, Northeast, Valley 0 Thousands+ Millions+

A powerful storm system spawned a severe weather outbreak Two winter storms in the eastern U.S. between the 17th and across parts of the Midwest, Southeast and the Mississippi Valley the 24th left at least 10 people dead. The first storm brought on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. At least eight people rain, snow and ice to the Northeast on the 17th and 18th; were killed and dozens more were injured during the event. while a more potent second storm crossed the Plains, Midwest, Dozens of tornadoes (including at least seven EF-3 twisters) Tennessee Valley and the Atlantic Seaboard between the 19th touched down in parts of , Missouri, Oklahoma, , and the 21st. Arctic air behind the second system led to the and Mississippi along with additional reports of damaging winds closure of schools, businesses and Amtrak service throughout the and large hail. Total economic losses were in the tens of millions Midwest and Northeast. of dollars (USD). The third record-setting major winter storm of the 2010-2011 Winter weather affected the eastern half of the U.S. between the winter season brought excessive wintry precipitation and severe 7th and the 12th. A first system brought a wave of heavy snowfall weather to the eastern U.S. between the 24th and the 26th. As to parts of the Great Lakes on the 7th and 8th, before the focus the storm organized, it spawned at least six tornado touchdowns shifted into the Southeast on the 8th and 9th as a secondary storm in central and southern which damaged hundreds of system developed along the Gulf Coast. That storm brought homes, buildings and other structures. By the 25th and 26th, the widespread snow and ice throughout the region, where at least main area of low pressure crossed into the Northeast 11 people were killed. On the 11th and 12th, the two systems as the Nor’easter brought heavy snowfall to Washington, D.C., combined to become a powerful Nor’easter that brought snow , City, and Boston. Severe travel accumulations ranging from 6 to 30 inches (15 to 76 centimeters) disruption ensued. throughout coastal . Total economic losses were listed in the tens of millions of dollars (USD).

21 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Exhibit 29: United States February Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

1/31-2/12 Winter Weather Midwest, Southeast, Northeast 36+ 100,000+ 2+ billion

2/2-2/6 Winter Weather Plains, Southeast, Southwest 4+ 45,000+ 650+ million

2/20-2/21 Winter Weather Midwest, Valley, Northeast 1+ 4,000+ Millions+

2/24-2/25 Winter Weather Midwest, Southeast, Northeast 4+ 20,000+ 225+ million

2/27-3/4 Wildfires Texas 1+ 241+ 14.5+ million

2/27-2/28 Severe Weather Southeast, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic 4+ 45,000+ 250+ million

A major winter storm brought record amounts of snow, ice of the Great Lakes seeing a mixed precipitation and gusty winds and severe across a more than 2,000-mile that snapped trees and power lines. Thousands of structures and (3,218-kilometer) stretch of the United States from Colorado to vehicles were damaged. between January 31st and February 2nd, leaving at least 36 people dead. Twenty-two separate states received snow Another winter storm affected much of the eastern half of the totals of 5 inches (13 centimeters) or more, and accumulations U.S. on the 24th and 25th, with heavy snow and freezing rain of more than 18 inches (45 centimeters) were recorded in seven occurring from to Maine and severe weather impacting other states. In , the city sustained the third-biggest the Southeast. At least four fatalities were attributed to the snowfall in its history. More than 18,000 flights were cancelled system. A raced through parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, across the country due to the inclement weather, which also , , Mississippi, Alabama and , which included bitter cold that damaged crops in the southern Plains. caused widespread damage. Total economic losses were Severe weather occurred in the Southeast and the Mississippi estimated at USD225 million, while insurers received more than Valley along the southern branch of the main frontal boundary 20,000 claims with losses exceeding USD125 million. on the 1st. Total economic losses were at least USD2 billion, The combination of very dry conditions and high winds led while insurers received more than 115,000 claims with losses to several wildfires across between February 27th exceeding USD1.1 billion. and March 4th. At least 241 homes and other structures were Record snow and bitter cold temperatures engulfed parts of the damaged or destroyed in Potter, Randall and Mitchell counties southern Plains, the Desert Southwest and the Southeast between after winds gusting to nearly 70 mph (110 kph) helped the fires the 2nd and the 6th. At least four fatalities were attributed char more than 140,000 acres (56,600 hectares) of land. At least to the storm, which directly impacted 14 states. Following a one traffic fatality was blamed on heavy smoke. Total economic stretch of very heavy snowfall, arctic air sunk over the region as damages were listed at USD14.5 million. unprecedented cold covered much of the southern Plains and the A strong storm system spawned both severe weather and Lower Mississippi Valley. According to the Texas AgriLife Extension flooding across parts of the Plains, Midwest, Southeast, Ohio Service, the hard freeze affected agricultural operations by halting Valley and the Northeast on the 27th and 28th, killing four fieldwork and damaging crops. Total economic losses were listed people. According to the SPC, reports of tornadoes, damaging at USD650 million, while insurers received more than 45,000 winds and large hail were recorded damage occurred from claims with losses exceeding USD400 million. Oklahoma to . In Ohio, heavy rains sparked flooding A winter storm affected parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley and throughout the state as multiple rivers exceeded flood stage. the Northeast on the 20th and the 21st, leaving at least one Total economic losses were estimated at USD250 million, while person dead. Heavy snow totals fell in the , the insurers received more than 45,000 claims with losses exceeding Dakotas, , and Pennsylvania, with some parts USD150 million.

22 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 30: United States March Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

3/5-3/7 Winter Weather Southeast, Midwest, Northeast 1+ Thousands+ Millions+

3/7-3/9 Wildfires New Mexico 0 60+ Unknown

3/8-3/11 Winter Weather Southeast, Midwest, Northeast 4+ 20,000+ 200+ million

3/11 Tsunami West Coast, 1+ Hundreds+ 88.4+ million

3/12-3/13 Wildfires Oklahoma, Texas 0 67+ 3+ million

3/20-3/23 Severe Weather West, Southeast, Northeast 3+ Thousands+ 27+ million

3/26-3/28 Severe Weather Southeast 0 25,000+ 225+ million

3/29-3/31 Severe Weather Southeast 0 37,50 0+ 350+ million

A winter storm brought heavy snow, rain and rounds of Areas along the west coast of the U.S. and Hawaii were affected severe weather across parts of the Midwest, Mississippi Valley, by the magnitude-9.0 earthquake that struck Japan on the 11th. Southeast and the Northeast between the 5th and 7th. A squall The triggered tsunami led to widespread damage in parts of line spawned at least 10 tornado touchdowns in Louisiana on California and Hawaii. Total damages in California from the the 5th, where an EF-2 twister in the town of Rayne damaged or tsunami were listed at more than USD50 million, primarily to destroyed nearly 150 homes and killed one person. Additional docks, harbors and boats. In Hawaii, the state estimated that damage and injuries were reported in parts of Mississippi more than USD8.5 million in damages to while and Alabama. On the 6th, tornadoes touched down in North direct damage to personal property and local businesses was Carolina, while straight-line winds caused damage in parts of USD29.9 million. eastern . In New England, heavy snow and gusty winds led power poles and tree branches being snapped. Dozens of grass fires burned across parts of Oklahoma and Texas on the 12th and 13th. At least 15 injuries were reported. A large wildfire burned across parts of New Mexico between the In Oklahoma, the most affected areas came in Oklahoma County 7th and 9th, charring nearly 1,800 acres (728 hectares) of land where at least 37 homes were damaged or destroyed. Total near Silver City. According to local firefighters, the Quail Ridge damages in the county were listed at USD3 million. A total of 49 Fire led to the destruction of at least 60 structures (including 13 homes were destroyed state-wide. In Texas, at least 8 homes homes). No injuries or fatalities were reported. were destroyed in the towns of Jacksboro and Granbury.

A strong storm system brought additional rounds of heavy A strong storm system crossed the United States between the snow, rain and severe weather across parts of the Midwest, 20th and the 23rd, leaving at least three people dead. The Mississippi Valley, Southeast and Northeast between the 8th system came ashore in California on the 20th and brought and 11th. At least four people were killed. The most significant heavy rain and blizzard conditions to the Sierras. Damage effects were due to severe weather that impacted areas from occurred to hundreds of homes and businesses due to Texas to the . Dozens of tornadoes touched down and flash flooding, with costs listed at USD17 million. on the 8th and 9th in parts of Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana and As the main area of low pressure crossed the country from the Tennessee, which led to structural damage. On the 10th and Plains to New England, it spawned both heavy snow and severe 11th, heavy rains fell across already oversaturated regions of weather reports. Total economic losses were listed in the tens of the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic States which prompted millions (USD). both and river flooding. Total economic losses were estimated at USD200 million, while insurers received at least 20,000 claims with payouts totaling in excess of USD120 million.

23 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Severe weather caused widespread damage to parts of the boundary. In Louisiana, at least five tornadoes touched between the 26th and the 28th. The states of down, while at least four counties in Mississippi sustained Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia were primarily affected as major damage. On the 30th and 31st, the focus shifted into hail ranging from nickel to golfball-size was blamed for the as a nearly persistent band of showers and majority of inflicted damage. Total economic losses were listed severe thunderstorms occurred over a 36-hour span. Damage at USD225 million, while insurers received more than 25,000 to homes, airplane hangars, businesses and vehicles was claims with payouts exceeding USD150 million. widespread throughout the greater Tampa Bay area. Total economic losses were listed at USD350 million, while various Another round of severe weather impacted the Southeast insurers received more than 37,500 claims with payouts between the 29th and 31st, as an area of low pressure exceeding USD200 million. developed along the remnants of the stationary frontal

Exhibit 31: United States April Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

4/3-4/5 Severe Weather Midwest, Southeast, Plains 9+ 275,000+ 2.8+ billion

4/8-4/11 Severe Weather Midwest, Southeast, Plains 0 290,000+ 2.25+ billion

4/8-4/14 Flooding Red River Valley 3+ Hundreds+ 20+ million

4/9-4/30 Wildfires Texas 2+ 310+ 183+ million

4/14-4/16 Severe Weather Plains, Southeast, Midwest 48+ 150,000+ 2.5+ billion

4/19-4/21 Severe Weather Plains, Southeast, Midwest 0 150,000+ 1.25+ billion

4/22-4/28 Severe Weather Southeast, Plains, Midwest 344+ 700,000+ 10.2+ billion

A powerful spring storm system affected the eastern U.S. Another storm system brought widespread severe weather between the 3rd and 5th, which led to at least nine fatalities. On across parts of the Midwest, Plains and the Southeast between the 3rd, squall lines caused widespread damage across parts of the 8th and the 11th. In Oklahoma and Kansas, strong Kansas, Missouri, and Wisconsin. By the 4th into early on thunderstorms triggered ball and baseball-sized hail. the 5th, the system began to traverse through the Mississippi Additional damage was reported in seven other states on the Valley, the Southeast, the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic 8th and 9th. On the 9th and 10th, a cluster of thunderstorms States. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) recorded 1,476 storm crossed the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast. The Carolinas reports, which set a one-day record dating to 2000. Georgia were particularly affected. On the 10th and 11th, the focus shifted was particularly affected, where at least seven fatalities occurred. back into the Great Lakes as several tornadoes touched down in Additional tornadoes led to structural damage in Kentucky, Wisconsin. Later on the 10th and the 11th, severe weather brought Louisiana, Tennessee and Mississippi. Later on the 5th, parts significant hail damage across the Mississippi Valley and the of , Virginia and Florida sustained additional southern Plains. Total economic losses were listed at approximately damage from the storms. Total economic losses were listed at USD2.25 billion, while various insurers received more than approximately USD2.8 billion, while various insurers received 290,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD1.5 billion. more than 275,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD2 billion.

24 Impact Forecasting

The Red River Valley saw flooding after rain events caused Another powerful storm system spawned additional widespread excessive water run-off into rivers and streams in North Dakota severe weather across parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Minnesota. Outside of the Red River, other rivers and streams Midwest, Ohio Valley and the Southeast between the 19th and draining into the basin saw water levels above flood stage. The 21st. On the 19th, damage was recorded from northern Texas Red River officially crested in Fargo on the 9th at 38.75 feet northeastward into Ohio as storms occurred in association (11.81 meters), which was the fourth highest ever recorded in with a dangerous squall line. On the 20th, the hardest hit areas Fargo. Structural damage was minimal in the cities of Fargo, included parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. In Moorhead, Casselton and Harwood. Most damage came to the the days that followed, flash flood watches and warnings were transportation infrastructure after dozens of roads covering at issued throughout the Midwest and the Southeast as recent least 60 miles (95 kilometers) were submerged and severely heavy rains caused several rivers to swell to flood stage. Total eroded. Total economic losses were listed at USD20 million. economic losses were listed at in excess of USD1.25 billion, while various insurers received more than 150,000 claims with The combination of very dry air and gusty winds led to dozens payouts in excess of USD800 million. of wildfires breaking out across Texas between the 9th and the 30th, killing at least two firefighters. The Texas Forest Service An active weather pattern spawned a series of powerful storm reported that the fires charred more than 1.5 million acres systems across the central and eastern U.S. between the 22nd (607,000 hectares) of land and at least 310 homes, businesses and and the 28th, including a historic tornado event on the 27th. At churches. The Insurance Council of Texas listed insured losses in least a combined 344 people died and more than 2,000 others excess of USD150 million. Additional damage to fencing, pipelines were injured. The first wave spawned tornadic activity in the St. and other farm assets were listed at USD33 million. Louis, Missouri metropolitan area. The most destructive tornado was an EF-4 that caused extensive damage to thousands of A deadly multi-day affected central and eastern homes and the international airport. By the 25th and 26th, sections of the country between the 14th and 16th. At least 48 fresh rounds of severe weather affected the southern Plains, people were killed (24 in North Carolina alone) as hundreds of Mississippi Valley, Midwest and New England. A historic wave tornado touchdowns were recorded with thousands of other of severe weather developed on the 26th and the 27th while reports of large hail and damaging winds. The system initially affecting an area from the southern Plains to the Northeast. At impacted parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and Arkansas on the 14th, least 322 people (238 in Alabama) were killed after hundreds with major damage reported in each state. On the 15th, the of tornadoes touched down over a 48-hour stretch. Parts of severe weather shifted into the Southeast (particularly Mississippi Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee were decimated by the and Alabama) and the Midwest where in excess of 100 tornadoes outbreak. The National Weather Service determined that touched down. By the 16th, violent supercell thunderstorms three EF-5 tornadoes touched down (Hackleburg, Alabama, developed in advance of a main squall line across the Carolinas Rainsville, Alabama and Smithville, Mississippi) during the event into the Mid-Atlantic. In North Carolina, dozens of tornadoes in addition to at least 11 other high end EF-4 twisters. The NWS touched down and caused significant damage throughout the also reported that an estimated 312 tornadoes touched down state. Total economic losses were listed at approximately USD2.5 on the 27th, setting an all-time 24-hour record. The city of billion, while various insurers received more than 150,000 claims Tuscaloosa, Alabama was devastated by an EF-4 tornado with with payouts in excess of USD1.7 billion. winds of 190 mph (305 kph). Total economic losses were listed at USD10.2 billion, while various insurers received more than 700,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD7.3 billion.

25 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Exhibit 32: United States May Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

4/15-5/15 Flooding New England 0 2,000+ 75+ million

4/25-6/15 Flooding Mississippi Valley 9+ 25,000+ 4+ billion

5/10-5/13 Severe Weather Midwest, Southeast 2+ 50,000+ 300+ million

5/15-6/30 Flooding Missouri River Basin 1+ 5,000+ 1+ billion

5/21-5/27 Severe Weather Plains, Midwest, Southeast 185+ 750,000+ 9.1+ billion

5/28-5/30 Wildfires Texas 0 12+ Unknown

5/28-6/1 Severe Weather Plains, Midwest, Northeast 3+ 30,000+ 500+ million

After an active winter season and a record snowpack, recent Areas in the Missouri River Basin (including parts of Montana, the heavy rains and snowmelt led to flooding from New York Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa and Missouri) endured rounds of river to Maine between the middle of April through mid-May. In flooding during May and extending well into June. The U.S. Army , the state government reported that at least 500 Corp of Engineers enacted several controlled water releases to homes had been destroyed or severely damaged around help ease record water levels being recorded at some reservoir Lake Champlain. In New York, more than 1,000 homes were sites. These releases only added additional water downstream, damaged by the floods. Total damages were estimated at a where multiple levees were either breached or were on the verge combined USD75 million. of failure throughout the region. The floods caused at least USD1 billion in damages and reconstruction costs. Persistent heavy rains combined with snowmelt to bring major flooding throughout the Mississippi and Valleys A series of storm systems spawned another wave of historic between April 25th and the end of May, prompting a federal severe weather across parts of the U.S. between the 21st and disaster declaration in three states. At least nine people were the 27th, killing at least 185 people and injuring 1,300 others. killed in flood-related incidents. Flood damage was reported At least 162 fatalities, 1,150 injuries and catastrophic damage from southern Canada and through Illinois, , occurred in the city of Joplin, Missouri alone from the deadliest Missouri, Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee, Mississippi and single U.S. tornado to occur since the National Weather Service Louisiana. The American Farm Bureau Federation reported that started keeping official statistics in 1950. The twister was rated as over 3.6 million acres (1.45 million hectares) of farmland had an EF-5 with winds in excess of 200 mph (325 kph). A second EF-5 been damaged. The flooding, in combination with intentional was confirmed in Oklahoma during the period as an area from levee explosions and the opening of spillways, led to damages southern Texas to New England sustained major damage due of at least USD4 billion (primarily due to agricultural losses) up to the severe weather. The SPC confirmed at least 180 tornado and down the Valley. The government’s Risk touchdowns. Total economic losses from the event were listed at Management Agency noted that publicly and privately insured USD9.1 billion, while various insurers received at least 750,000 crop losses would be at least USD1.1 billion. claims with payouts totaling in excess of USD6.75 billion.

Severe weather swept across parts of the central and eastern Extremely dry conditions and winds gusting to 50 mph (85 kph) U.S. between the 10th and the 13th, leaving at least two people sparked additional wildfires across parts of Texas between the dead. The most notable damage locations came in Minnesota, 28th and the 30th. Two fires just outside the greater Amarillo the Carolinas and parts of the Mississippi Valley primarily due to area combined to destroy at least 12 homes and more than hail (up to baseball-size) and straight-line winds. Total economic 1,400 acres (557 hectares) of land. losses were listed at USD300 million, while various insurers reported having received more than 50,000 claims with payouts listed in excess of USD200 million.

26 Impact Forecasting

Fresh rounds of severe weather impacted central and eastern central on June 1st as at least 18 separate sections of the country between May 28th and June 1st, leaving communities reported widespread damage from multiple at least three people dead. The powerful thunderstorms tornado touchdowns. Total economic losses were listed at spawned tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds that USD500 million with various insurers received at least 30,000 affected parts of the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and the claims with payouts totaling in excess of USD300 million. Northeast. The most notable effects came in western and

Exhibit 33: United States June Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

5/25-7/5 Flooding Souris River Basin 0 5,000+ 1+ billion

5/29-6/23 Wildfires Arizona, New Mexico, Texas 2+ 300+ 160+ million

6/1-6/2 Severe Weather Central Plains 0 10,000+ 75+ million

6/8-6/10 Severe Weather Midwest, Northeast, Plains 0 35,000+ 300+ million

6/14-6/15 Severe Weather Southern Plains 0 20,000+ 125+ million

6/16-6/22 Severe Weather Midwest, Plains, Southeast 0 200,000+ 1.5+ billion

6/26-6/30 Wildfires New Mexico, Texas 0 100+ 512+ million

Areas in the Souris River Basin, primarily in North Dakota, Scattered severe weather occurred across multiple sections of endured rounds of flooding throughout the month of June after the country between the 8th and the 10th. The most notable beginning in late May. In Minot, the Souris River set an all-time damage came in parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley and the record crest and flooded at least 4,200 homes in the city and Northeast as the SPC recorded nearly 1,000 reports of large hail hundreds of other businesses. The transportation infrastructure and damaging winds. Total economic losses were estimated at also sustained major damage. Total economic losses were listed USD300 million, while various insurers received at least 35,000 at USD1 billion. claims with payouts listed at approximately USD200 million.

Wildfires burned across parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Texas and Clusters of severe thunderstorms crossed parts of the southern Florida during the month, which led to two fatalities. In Arizona, Plains on the 14th into early on the 15th, causing major damage the main blaze was the Wallow Fire which charred more than in Oklahoma. Total economic losses were listed at USD125 538,000 acres (218,000 hectares) and destroyed at least 78 million, while various insurers received at least 20,000 claims structures. In New Mexico, the Track Fire destroyed at least 19 with payouts listed at approximately USD85 million. structures. In Texas, the East Texas Complex charred 29,002 acres (11,700 hectares) of land and at least 40 structures. In Florida, at An active eight-day stretch of severe weather occurred across least two firefighters were killed while fighting the Blue Ribbon much of the eastern two-thirds of the country between the 16th Fire. Overall costs to fight the fires was at least USD160 million. and the 22nd. With a stationary frontal boundary draped across an area from the Carolinas back into the central Plains, several A storm system developed and spawned severe weather areas of low pressure developed. Of the more than 3,000 storm (including nearly a dozen tornadoes, large hail and damaging reports recorded by the SPC during this timeframe, the vast winds) across parts of the Central Plains on the 1st and 2nd. majority were damaging winds and large hail. Notable damage Parts of central and northern Kansas were particularly affected, locations during the period came in the greater Chicago, Illinois primarily due to large hail – up to softball-sized in some metropolitan region and at the famed in locations. Total economic losses were estimated at USD75 Kentucky. Total economic losses were listed at USD1.5 billion, million, while various insurers received at least 10,000 claims while various insurers reported having received at least 200,000 with payouts listed at approximately USD50 million. claims with payouts totaling in excess of USD1.15 billion.

27 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

New wildfires burned across the Desert Southwest through the in and around Los Alamos. In Texas, the Forest Service reported end of June, with the most notable fire being the Las Conchas that two large fires (the Dyer Mill Fire and the Bearing Fire) wildfire in New Mexico. The blaze burn more than 124,000 destroyed at least USD15 million in timber — resulting in a acres (50,100 hectares) of land. At least 95 structures were list possible USD500 million economic loss.

Exhibit 34: United States July Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

6/30-7/4 Severe Weather Midwest 2+ 90,000+ 800+ million

7/10-7/14 Severe Weather Midwest, Rockies, Plains 0 160,000+ 1.4+ billion

7/22-7/24 Severe Weather Midwest 0 25,000+ 200+ million

7/29 TS Don Texas 0 Unknown Unknown

7/29-8/1 Severe Weather Plains, Midwest, Northeast 0 50,000+ 300+ million

Several days of severe weather between June 30th and July 4th Rounds of heavy rains inundated the greater Chicago brought widespread damage throughout the Midwest, killing metropolitan area between the 22nd and the 24th. The rains at least two people. In the greater Chicago, Illinois metropolitan prompted significant flooding in some areas, where thousands region, extremely gusty winds and hail as large as baseballs of homes sustained inundation in basements. The transportation caused damage in the city. Additional damage occurred in parts infrastructure was also impacted, where nearly every main of Minnesota and Wisconsin as tornadoes, large hail and straight- highway corridor was affected with floodwaters. Total economic line winds occurred. Two fatalities occurred in Burnett County, losses were estimated at USD200 million, while various insurers Wisconsin. Total economic losses were listed at USD800 million, received more than 25,000 claims with payouts in excess of with various insurers receiving at least 90,000 claims with USD125 million. payouts in excess of USD600 million. Tropical Storm Don developed in the southern Clusters of strong thunderstorms led to widespread damage and made landfall in southern Texas on the 29th. The weak storm across parts of the Midwest, Rockies and the Plains between dissipated while coming ashore and brought minimal amounts of the 10th and the 14th. Notable damage locations came in the rainfall to the state. Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin on the 10th before shifting into the Great Lakes on the 11th as a powerful crossed Rounds of severe thunderstorms accompanied a frontal the region. In the greater Chicago metropolitan area, winds boundary which traversed through parts of the northern Plains, gusting to 80 mph (130 kph) led to widespread damage as trees Midwest and the Northeast between July 29th and August 1st. were downed and power lines snapped. Also during the period, Large hail (up to golf ball and baseball-sized) and damaging severe storms spawned golf ball-sized hail in the greater Denver, straight-line winds were found in some of the most severe Colorado area which led to widespread damage. Total economic storm cells. Torrential rains also spawned flash flooding in some losses were estimated at USD1.4 billion, while various insurers locations. Total economic losses were listed at approximately have recorded more than 160,000 claims with payouts in excess USD300 million, while various insurers received more than of USD925 million. 50,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD200 million.

28 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 35: United States August Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

7/27-8/9 Wildfires Oklahoma 2+ 136+ 20+ million

8/7-8/10 Severe Weather Plains, Midwest, Northeast 1+ Thousands+ Millions+

8/13-8/14 Severe Weather Midwest, Mid-Atlantic 7+ Thousands+ Millions+

8/13-8/14 Flooding Northeast, Ohio Valley 0 Thousands+ 20+ million

8/18-8/19 Severe Weather Plains 0 100,000+ 750+ million

8/22 Earthquake Colorado, New Mexico 0 Hundreds+ Unknown

8/23 Earthquake Mid-Atlantic States 0 1,500+ 250+ million

8/23-8/24 Severe Weather Midwest, Ohio Valley 0 Thousands+ Millions+

8/26-8/28 HU Irene Mid-Atlantic, Northeast 46+ 835,000+ 7.3+ billion

8/30-9/1 Wildfires Texas, Oklahoma 0 77+ Millions+

The combination of a lingering drought and tremendous Torrential rains spawned flooding in parts of the Ohio Valley heat led to ideal wildfire conditions across parts of Oklahoma and New England on the 13th and 14th. Notable damage came between July 27th and August 9th that sparked multiple blazes. in , where as much as 11 inches (280 millimeters) The most notable wildfire occurred in Pawnee County, where of rain caused extensive damage in Cumberland County. Total at least 123 structures (including 46 homes) were destroyed. infrastructure damages in the county were listed at USD20 Total economic losses were listed at USD20 million. Another million. Parts of Ohio also sustained major effects, particularly fire destroyed at least 13 homes in addition to other barns and in the community of Port Clinton. Additional flood damage was sheds in the town of Edmond. recorded in parts of New York, Pennsylvania and . Total damages were estimated in excess of USD50 million. Rounds of severe weather impacted parts of the Plains, Midwest and the Northeast between the 7th and the 10th as a stationary Powerful thunderstorms spawned widespread large hail and frontal boundary draped across the region. At least one fatality straight-line wind damage throughout parts of the Plains on and multiple injuries were reported. The most notable damage the 18th and 19th. The greater Omaha, Nebraska region was came in the Plains, particularly in Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska particularly affected as baseball-sized hail caused extensive and Missouri. Additional storm damage was reported in parts of damage. At the local airport, numerous airplanes and the main the Great Lakes and New England as well. terminal sustained severe hail damage. Additional damage was reported in southwest Iowa, northwest Missouri and eastern An advancing spawned severe weather in the Midwest, Kansas. Total economic losses were listed at USD1.1 billion, the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and the Mid-Atlantic on the 13th while various insurers received more than 110,000 claims with and 14th. The Chicago, Illinois metropolitan region reported golf total payouts in excess of USD800 million. ball-sized hail and straight-line winds before the storms continued to strengthen while entering central Indiana. A wind gust of 70 A magnitude-5.3 earthquake struck southern Colorado late mph (110 kph) caused a concert stage to collapse at the Indiana on the 22nd, causing widespread minor damage. The tremor, State Fair, leading to seven fatalities. Elsewhere, additional with an epicenter 9 miles (15 kilometers) west-southwest of damage from the activity was recorded in parts of Michigan, Trinidad, Colorado or 180 miles (290 kilometers) south of Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia, and the Carolinas. Denver, Colorado, damaged some homes and other structures in the state as well as northern New Mexico. The most common

29 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

damage type was toppled chimneys and cracked walls. Minor Hurricane Irene made three separate landfalls along the East rockslides also left debris on several roadways. According to the Coast of the U.S. between the 26th and the 28th, bringing USGS, this was the strongest earthquake to strike this region in torrential rains and very gusty winds from the Carolinas to at least 40 years. Maine. At least 46 people were killed and dozens more were injured as Irene prompted a dangerous in addition A magnitude-5.8 earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic region to flash floods and river flooding. Nearly eight million power on the 23rd, causing sporadic reports of damage and forcing outages were recorded, in addition to more than 13,000 flight temporary evacuations. No serious injuries or fatalities were cancellations. Widespread damage was recorded to tens of reported. The tremor occurred at 1:51 PM local time (17:51 thousands of homes, businesses, other structures and vehicles in UTC) with an epicenter 5 miles (8 kilometers) south-southwest North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Washington D.C., Delaware, of Mineral, Virginia at a depth of 3.7 miles (6 kilometers). The Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, , , tremor was widely felt throughout the eastern seaboard, Vermont, , Massachusetts and Maine. Total including in Washington, D.C., where three pinnacles in the economic losses were in excess of USD7.3 billion, with various central tower of the National Cathedral broke off in addition to insurers recording more than 835,000 claims with payouts at other minor structural damage. The U.S. Park Service reported least USD4.3 billion. that cracks were found in the Washington Monument and the Smithsonian Castle. Additional minor damage and isolated Dozens of wildfires were sparked at the end of August in parts incidents of broken gas and water pipes were confirmed in parts of Texas and Oklahoma, as the combination of an extreme of New York, Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania drought, triple-digit temperatures and high winds created ideal and . Closer to the epicenter in Virginia, sporadic fire conditions. The most notable fire came in Texas, where the damage was reported in the greater Richmond area. Economic 101 Ranch Fire in Palo Pinto County destroyed at least 39 homes losses were listed at approximately USD250 million, with various near the town of Brad. In Oklahoma, fires were reported in insurers noted insured losses around USD100 million. central sections of the state just to the northeast of . One particular fire charred more than 4,000 acres (1,620 An advancing storm system across parts of the Great Lakes and hectares) of land and destroyed at least 30 homes. the Ohio Valley spawned reports of severe weather damage on the 23rd and the 24th. An EF-2 tornado with 130 mph (210 kph) winds in Clark County, Wisconsin left at least one person dead. Elsewhere, hail and straight-line wind damage was prevalent throughout parts of Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

30 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 36: United States September Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

9/1-9/15 Wildfires Texas 4+ 7,50 0+ 525+ million

9/1-9/3 Severe Weather Great Lakes 0 15,000+ 125+ million

9/4-9/8 TS Lee Southeast, Northeast 13+ 80,000+ 1+ billion

Dozens of wildfires were ignited across much of central Texas Tropical Storm Lee made landfall in south-central Louisiana on during the first two weeks of September, destroying more the 4th, before its remnants shifted into the Mid-Atlantic and than 2,000 homes and structures. At least four fatalities were New England. At least 13 fatalities were blamed on the system. recorded. The most destructive fire was the Bastrop County The storm brought excessive rains (and isolated severe weather) Complex Fire, which was triggered on the 4th just northeast of to many southern and northeastern states, including several the city of Bastrop. The blaze charred more than 34,068 acres still recovering from Hurricane Irene. Heavy rains prompted (13,786 hectares) of land and destroyed at least 1,673 homes. It several rivers in Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey to is the single most destructive wildfire on record in Texas. Other overflow their banks and flood thousands of homes, businesses fires destroyed an additional 385 homes. According to the and vehicles. Infrastructure damage was widespread as well. Insurance Council of Texas, in excess of 7,500 claims had already Economic flood losses in Pennsylvania alone were estimated at been filed and payouts were anticipated to exceed USD525 USD1 billion. In terms of insured losses, there were in excess million – including USD325 million alone from at least 1,500 of 100,000 claims filed to various insurers and the Federal claims from the Bastrop fire. Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Total insured losses topped USD500 million. Rounds of severe weather crossed parts of the Great Lakes between the 1st and the 3rd as a storm system slowly moved through the region. The SPC recorded hundreds of reports of hail and damaging winds during the event, which particularly affected parts of Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Total economic losses were approximately USD125 million, while various insurers received at least 15,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD75 million.

31 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Exhibit 37: United States October Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

10/19 Severe Weather Florida 0 80+ Unknown

10/28-10/30 Winter Weather Northeast 29+ 150,000+ 3+ billion

Two tornadoes struck portions of South Florida on the 19th, for the deaths of at least 29 people, caused widespread damage with multiple minor injuries occurring. According to the as upwards of two feet (61 centimeters) of heavy, wet snow National Weather Service, an EF-2 twister with winds up to 120 snapped trees, power lines, power poles and cell phone towers mph (195 kph) tore through a 1.11-mile (1.79-kilometer) path onto homes, businesses and vehicles. Additional damage was in the greater Sunrise/ area near . At least 50 reported to the transportation infrastructure from Maryland homes were damaged or destroyed. to Maine. At the height of the event, more than three million power outages were recorded. Total economic losses were A strong, early season Nor’easter brought heavy snow and estimated to reach USD3 billion, while various insurers received gusty winds across parts of New England and the Mid-Atlantic at least 150,000 claims with total insured losses at approximately between the 28th and the 30th. The system, which was blamed USD890 million.

32 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 38: United States November Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

11/5 Earthquake Oklahoma 0 Dozens+ Unknown

11/10 -11/11 Winter Weather 0 Hundreds+ 1.8+ million

11/15-11/16 Severe Weather Mississippi Valley, Southeast 6+ Thousands+ Millions+

11/30 -12/1 High Winds Southwest 0 45,000+ 225+ million

A rare earthquake struck the state of Oklahoma on the 5th, A strong storm system spawned waves of severe weather across causing isolated reports of damage and minor injuries. The the southern United States on the 15th and 16th, leaving at magnitude-5.6 tremor occurred at 10:53 PM (3:53 UTC on the least six people dead and dozens of others injured. Widespread 6th) with an epicenter eight kilometers (five miles) northwest damage to thousands of homes and structures was prevalent from Prague, Oklahoma at a shallow depth of 5 kilometers in several states as the storms triggered tornadoes, damaging (3.1 miles). According to state officials, the earthquake caused winds and large hail. Tornado touchdowns occurred in parts façade damage at more than a dozen homes in Lincoln and of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Pottawatomie counties and four spires on top of Benedictine Hall Carolinas. Total economic losses were estimated in the millions of at St. Gregory’s University. This was the strongest earthquake dollars (USD). ever recorded in Oklahoma’s history. A slow-moving area of low pressure in the Southwest spawned One of the most powerful storms to affect western Alaska in at fierce winds on November 30th into December 1st. The system least 37 years pummeled the state on the 10th and the 11th. prompted National Weather Service offices to issue high wind No injuries or fatalities were recorded, though flood and wind warnings across parts of California, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, New damage was prevalent in some areas. According to National Mexico and Wyoming. In California, Santa Ana winds gusting Weather Service officials, the system sparked wind gusts in in excess of 80 mph (130 kph) downed trees, cut electricity excess of 85 mph (140 kph) with blizzard conditions. A storm and caused flight delays. Total economic losses were estimated surge up to 7 feet (2.13 meters) in height inundated the coastline at USD225 million, while various insurers received more than and left damage in the town of Nome and 36 other native village 45,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD175 million. communities. Total economic losses were listed at more than USD1.8 million.

Exhibit 39: United States December Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

12/19-12/21 Winter Weather Southwest, Plains, Midwest 6+ Thousands+ Millions+

A powerful winter storm brought heavy snow and blizzard closed in New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Fallen conditions across parts of the Southwest and the Plains between trees, snapped power lines and downed power poles led to the 19th and the 21st, killing at least six people. The system, widespread damage and power outages across the region as which dumped as much as 18 inches (45 centimeters) of snow well before later crossing the Midwest. in some locations, led to several interstates and highways being

33 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Remainder of North America (Canada, Mexico, Bermuda, Caribbean Islands)

• Hurricane Irene leaves trail of damage and fatalities throughout the Caribbean and the Bahamas

• River flooding in Canada causes more than USD1 billion in economic damages; minimal insured loss

• Major wildfire in Slave Lake, Canada becomes second costliest insured event in nation’s history

Exhibit 40: Remainder of North America January Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

1/10-1/13 Winter Weather Canada 0 Hundreds+ Unknown

1/11-1/15 Winter Weather Mexico 16+ Unknown Unknown

1/27-1/28 Winter Weather Canada 0 Hundreds+ Unknown

A Nor’easter spawned winter weather warnings across much of A pocket of cold air in Mexico between the 11th and the 15th led Nova Scotia and New Brunswick between the 10th and the 13th. to the deaths of at least 16 people. The fatalities were blamed on According to Environment Canada, the system dumped upwards hypothermia in the states of Chihuahua, Coahuila and Puebla. of 25 centimeters (10 inches) of snow in each region before later shifting into the Canadian Maritimes. No injuries or fatalities A strong winter storm affected the Canadian Maritimes and were reported, though treacherous driving conditions led to the on the 27th and 28th. At least 30 centimeters (12 closure of schools and businesses. inches) of snow fell across the region, which led to thousands of residents losing electricity as the heavy snow and gusty winds snapped power lines. The system also forced the cancellation of hundreds of flights at airports in .

Exhibit 41: Remainder of North America February Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

2/1-2/2 Winter Weather Canada 0 Dozens+ Unknown

2/15-2/16 Winter Weather Canada 0 Dozens+ Unknown

A major winter storm in the U.S. entered eastern Canada on A strong winter storm brought gusty winds and heavy snows to the 1st and 2nd, bringing additional heavy snow to the region. much of and Nova Scotia in Canada on the 15th Parts of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Ontario and Quebec and 16th. The high winds caused high snow drifts on roads, saw snowfall totals ranging between 10 to 30 centimeters (4 resulting in the closure of several main highways – including to 12 inches) and winds gusting to 50 kph (31 mph), which led a 30-kilometer (19-mile) stretch of the Trans-Canada Highway to dozens of reports of roof collapses. The storm also caused between Grand Falls-Windsor and Badger and the Canso schools and businesses to be closed and hundreds of flights in Causeway connecting Cape Breton to the Canadian mainland. the region to be cancelled. Due to the extreme driving conditions, schools and several businesses were closed for consecutive days.

34 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 42: Remainder of North America March Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

3/7 Winter Weather Canada 0 Hundreds+ 20.6+ million

A strong winter system affected parts of eastern Canada on the 7th. According to Environment Canada, the province of Quebec saw snow accumulations ranging from 25 to 75 centimeters (10 to 30 inches). The city of Sherbrooke was particularly affected, where snowbound streets paralyzed travel and caused schools and businesses to close. In Montreal, heavy snows cost the city at least CAD20 million (USD20.6 million) to clean-up. No injuries or fatalities were reported.

Exhibit 43: Remainder of North America April Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

4/7 Earthquake Mexico 0 Unknown Unknown

A magnitude-6.5 earthquake shook a wide section of southern Mexico on the 7th. The tremor struck at 8:11 AM local time (13:11 UTC) with an epicenter near Las Choapas in the state of Veracruz and was felt as far away as Mexico City. Only minor cracks were reported to local schools and homes near the epicenter primarily due to its deep depth of 167.4 kilometers (104 miles). All refineries and the regional nuclear power plant were all unaffected.

Exhibit 44: Remainder of North America May Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

4/14-5/31 Flooding Canada 5+ 10,000+ 1.03+ billion

5/15-5/18 Wildfires Canada 0 522+ 800+ million

River flooding in and Quebec provinces in Canada Dozens of wildfires broke out across Alberta, Canada between throughout the month led to widespread damage and killed at the 15th and the 18th, following a period of very dry conditions least five people. In Manitoba, the Red and Assiniboine rivers with gusty winds. One particular wildfire in Slave Lake led to both crested at record levels across western and southern nearly 40 percent of the town being completely destroyed, sections of the province – which led to a 1-in-300 year flood including at least 374 homes (57 others severely damaged) and event. Nearly 4,000 homes were affected in the province by the town’s city hall, library, radio station and numerous other the floods and provincial officials reported that total damages businesses. According to the Insurance Bureau of Canada, total to property, and the transportation infrastructure insured losses were listed at CAD700 million (USD695 million), surpassed CAD1 billion (USD1.03 billion). In Quebec, the making this the second costliest natural disaster event in Richelieu River saw its worst floods in at least 140 years as more Canadian history. Total economic losses were even higher. than 3,000 homes were damaged in 20 separate municipalities. The floods along the Richelieu River were also enhanced by a swollen Lake Champlain. Both of these events resulted in limited insured loss as flood is not typically an insured peril for Personal Lines Property in Canada.

35 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Exhibit 45: Remainder of North America June Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

6/1-6/10 Flooding , Jamaica 40+ Hundreds+ Unknown

6/8 Severe Weather Canada 1+ Thousands+ Unknown

6/20-6/21 HU Beatriz Mexico 3+ 100+ Unknown

6/21-6/30 Flooding Canada 0 Hundreds+ Unknown

6/30 TS Arlene Mexico 25+ 50,000+ Millions+

Nearly ten consecutive days of heavy rains from a tropical Hurricane Beatriz developed and skirted the Mexican coastline disturbance in the western Caribbean led to at least 40 fatalities from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes on the 20th and the 21st. (34 in Haiti, 5 in the Dominican Republic, 1 in Jamaica) between According to Mexican officials, Beatriz spawned heavy rains and the 1st and the 10th. In Haiti, the rains led to flash flooding and periods of gusty winds across the states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, mudslides destroyed hundreds of homes and shanties in Port-au- Guerrero, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán. At least three fatalities Prince. Additional damage occurred in the Dominican Republic, were blamed on the storm. Damage was generally minimal, Jamaica, and the U.S. . though dozens of properties reported lost roofs.

A strong storm system crossed Ontario, Canada on the 8th, Areas along the Souris River in south-central sections of triggering severe weather which led to widespread property Canada saw flood inundation between the 21st through the damage throughout the greater Toronto metropolitan region. At 30th. At least 44 homes were damaged or destroyed by the least one tornado touchdown was reported, though most of the floods in southeastern Saskatchewan. As the high water levels damage was blamed on hail and high winds. strikes flowed northward out of North Dakota and into southwestern triggered 15 fires that damaged multiple homes. More than Manitoba, cresting occurred in early July. 150,000 Hydro One customers lost electricity during the height of the event as the storm caused extensive damage to parts of the Tropical Storm Arlene developed in the before electrical infrastructure. One storm-related fatality was reported. making landfall as a 65 mph (100 kph) cyclone near Cabo Rojo, Mexico early on the 30th. Following landfall, the storm caused flooding and damage across the states of Veracruz, and San Luis Potosi. At least 25 storm-related fatalities occurred in addition to 50,000 homes being damaged. Total damages were listed in the millions of dollars (USD).

36 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 46: Remainder of North America July Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

7/5-7/7 Flooding Dominican Republic 0 1,900+ Unknown

7/15-7/17 Flooding Mexico, Guatemala 5+ 40,000+ Unknown

7/17-7/19 Severe Weather Canada 2+ 1,000+ Millions+

Tropical rains in the spawned flooding 570 municipalities. Flash floods and landslides were the largest throughout the Dominican Republic between the 5th and 7th. culprit of the damage and fatalities, though several rivers and At least one person was killed after the heavy rains spawned streams overflowed their banks in the flash flooding and mudslides. More than 1,900 homes in region. As many as 40,000 homes were affected. central and southern sections of the country were damaged or destroyed. Rounds of severe weather affected four Canadian provinces between the 17th and the 19th, leaving at least two people Remnant moisture from what would become Major Hurricane dead. The storms brought damaging winds in excess of 120 kph Dora in the Pacific Ocean brought heavy rainfall between (75 mph) and large hail (up to baseball-sized) to parts of eastern the 15th and the 17th to southern sections of Mexico and Ontario, western Quebec, eastern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Guatemala. At least five people were killed and dozens more According to provincial insurers in Saskatchewan, more than were injured. The Mexican state of Oaxaca was heavily impacted 1,000 home and auto claims were filed with total losses well into as an emergency declaration was made for 42 of the state’s the millions of dollars (USD).

Exhibit 47: Remainder of North America August Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

8/3-8/7 TS Emily Hispaniola, Puerto Rico 5+ 10,000+ 60+ million

8/9 Flooding Canada 0 405+ 8.03+ million

8/21-8/24 Severe Weather Canada 1+ 2,000+ 250+ million

8/22-8/26 HU Irene Caribbean, Bahamas, Canada 9+ Thousands+ 1.25+ billion

Tropical Storm Emily affected the eastern and central Caribbean A powerful storm system spawned torrential rainfall that Islands between the 3rd and the 7th, leaving at least five flooded hundreds of homes in the town of Amherstburg, people dead. Minor damage was reported in Martinique and Ontario on the 9th. According to multiple insurers, at least 405 , though more notable effects were felt in Puerto homes sustained flood inundation with losses topping CAD8 Rico. The storm caused at least USD5 million in infrastructure million (USD8.03 million). damage and forced a two-day work suspension that prompted an additional USD55 million loss to the economy. Hispaniola was Rounds of severe weather swept across parts of eastern Canada also impacted, where five fatalities were reported in addition to between the 21st and the 24th, highlighted by the strongest nearly 8,000 homes being damaged. tornado to touch down in the country in 15 years. The twister struck the town of Goderich in Ontario, Canada with winds up

37 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

to 240 kph (150 mph) – an EF-3 on the . sectors. Similar damage was reported in Hispaniola, where Significant damage occurred across a nearly 1.5-kilometer-wide more than 37,700 homes were affected across 88 separate (0.93-mile) path throughout the town as hundreds of homes were communities in the Dominican Republic. At least four people directly impacted, in addition to 150 other businesses, churches were killed and economic losses were listed at DOP1 billion and the town’s port and historic downtown. At least one fatality (USD26.3 million). In Haiti, the torrential rains led to three and 37 minor injuries were blamed on the twister. Total economic fatalities. Reports out of Martinique, Guadeloupe, the Virgin losses were listed in excess of CAD252 million (USD250 million), Islands, St. Thomas and St. Croix noted that damage was largely while the Insurance Bureau of Canada listed insured losses from minimal. As the system headed into the Bahamas, major damage the Goderich tornado alone at CAD75 million (USD73 million). occurred on Cat, Mayaguana, Acklins and Crooked Islands. Aon Benfield Canada estimated total insured losses from the Government reports noted that upwards of 90 percent of all entire event at CAD200 million (USD198 million). homes and structures on the islands were damaged. On the islands of Grand Turk, New Providence and Grand Bahama, Major Hurricane Irene developed and impacted parts of the damage was limited though still notable. Total Caribbean Caribbean and the Bahamas between the 22nd and the 26th, economic losses were estimated at nearly USD1.25 billion, with leaving at least eight people dead. Puerto Rico sustained combined insured losses listed around USD1 billion. According widespread damage throughout the island, where at least one to Aon Benfield Canada, at least USD148 million of the insured fatality was reported. The Puerto Rican government estimated losses occurred in Canada, with the rest primarily coming from that damages would exceed USD500 million, with an additional damage in the Bahamas. USD149.4 million in lost productivity to the public and private

Exhibit 48: Remainder of North America September Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

9/19 Earthquakes Guatemala 3+ 388+ Unknown

Six separate earthquakes struck southwestern Guatemala near Santa Rosa during a 10-hour span on the 19th. At least three people were killed and 13 others were injured as 400 homes were damaged. Windows were shattered in highrise buildings and the transportation infrastructure was impacted, including several points on the Pan American Highway blocked by landslides.

38 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 49: Remainder of North America October Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

10/11-10/12 HU Jova Mexico 6+ Hundreds+ 27.7+ million

10/11-10/21 TD 12-E Central America 115+ 25,000+ Unknown

Hurricane Jova developed and made landfall in west-central Ten days of rainfall from the remnants of Tropical Depression Mexico late on the 11th, coming ashore near the town of Chamela 12-E and additional tropical moisture led to the deaths of at in Jalisco state as a Category 2 storm with 100 mph (160 kph) least 115 people across much of Central America and southern winds. The storm dumped heavy rains across the Mexican states Mexico between the 11th and the 21st. Fatalities were recorded of Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán as flash floods and landslides in Guatemala (38), El Salvador (34), (15), Nicaragua led to the deaths of at least seven people. Damage (primarily (13), Mexico (10) and Costa Rica (5), in addition to widespread due to flood inundation) was reported to homes, businesses, damage to property, infrastructure and agriculture. Tens of agriculture and the transportation infrastructure after several thousands of homes and businesses were damaged by flash rivers overflowed their banks. Total economic losses were listed at floods and dozens of rivers overflowing their banks. More than 1 MXN370 million (USD27.7 million). million people were directly impacted by the event.

November

There were no significant natural disaster events during the month of November.

Exhibit 50: Remainder of North America December Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

12/10 Earthquake Mexico 2+ Hundreds+ Unknown

A strong earthquake rattled parts of Mexico on the 10th, causing (40.3 miles). Reports of damage were largely isolated and isolated reports of damage and leading to the deaths of at least confined to areas closed to the epicenter in the coastal state of three people. The magnitude-6.5 tremor struck at 7:47 PM local Guerrero. Some roof collapses and facade damage were noted, time (1:47 UTC Sunday) with an epicenter 42 kilometers (26 though widespread significant structural impacts did not occur. miles) southwest of Iguala, Mexico or 166 kilometers (103 miles) In Mexico City itself, highrise buildings swayed but no damage south-southwest of Mexico City at a depth of 64.9 kilometers was reported.

39 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

South America

• Significant flooding and landslides in Colombia leave billions (USD) in damage

• Deadliest natural disaster event in Brazil’s history leaves more than 900 dead due series of mudslides

• Severe weather activity in Brazil spawns hundreds of millions (USD) in economic losses

Exhibit 51: South America January Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

12/25-1/6 Flooding Brazil 35+ 30,000+ Unknown

1/1-3/5 Flooding Bolivia 52+ 25,000+ 20+ million

1/1-5/31 Flooding Colombia 116+ 375,000+ 5.85+ billion

1/10-1/14 Flooding Brazil 903+ 21,500+ 1.2+ billion

1/20-1/31 Flooding Brazil 6+ 21,000+ Unknown

Two weeks of torrential rains (which fell between December The most deadly natural disaster in Brazilian history occurred 25, 2010 and January 6, 2011) triggered landslides and flooding between the 10th and 14th after a series of massive mudslides that left at least 35 people dead. The most affected state was occurred in the Serrano mountain region. The flooding and Minas Gerais, though the states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro slides were blamed on days of torrential rains that oversaturated and Espirito Santo also reported damage. More than 30,000 the soil. The most affected states were Sao Paolo and Rio de homes were damaged or destroyed, along with wide swaths of Janeiro, where at least 903 people died. A total of 405 people agricultural crops and infrastructure. died in Nova Friburgo, 344 in Teresopolis, 67 in Petropolis and 22 in Sumiduoro in Sao Paolo state. According to government An extended period of heavy rainfall and flooding affected officials, more than 21,500 homes, businesses and other much of Bolivia between the start of the new year through structures were destroyed. Total economic losses were listed at early March. At least 52 people died due river flooding. More BRL2 billion (USD1.2 billion). than 68,000 people were affected in the departments of La Paz, Cochabamba, Chuquisaca, Oruro, Potosi and Beni. The Two weeks of torrential rains led to at least six fatalities in government allocated BOB140 million (USD20 million) for Brazil’s Santa Catarina state between the 20th and the 31st. recovery efforts. More than 21,000 homes in 71 separate cities were damaged by floods and landslides.

Exhibit 52: South America February Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

2/27- 4/11 Landslides Bolivia 56+ 20,000+ Unknown

Heavy rainfall between the end of February and early April led to a mudslides and flooding throughout Bolivia, including capital of La Paz. According to the government, at least 20,000 homes and long stretches of roads were destroyed during the timeframe.

40 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 53: South America March Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

3/10-3/14 Flooding Brazil 10+ 25,000+ Millions+

3/11 Tsunami Chile, Peru 0 500+ Unknown

Consecutive days of heavy rain led to renewed flooding across over 1,000 farms (primarily growing tobacco, corn and parts of southern Brazil between the 10th and the 14th. At crops) were damaged by floods. Landslides and floods also least 10 people were killed and more than 31,000 others blocked highways and damaged more than 40 bridges. were left homeless in the states of do Sul, Santa Catarina, Espirito Santo and Parana. Widespread damage to Areas along the west coast of South America were affected by tens of thousands of homes was prevalent, and the agricultural, the massive magnitude-9.0 earthquake that struck Japan on the transportation and electrical all sustained 11th. Reports indicated that 300 homes were damaged in the significant effects as well. In the town of Sao Lourenco do Sul, towns of Pueblo Nuevo de Colan and Pisco in Peru, and 200 additional coastal homes were destroyed Chile.

Exhibit 54: South America April Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

4/3-21 Flooding Peru 9+ 5,500+ Unknown

4/25-4/26 Severe Weather Brazil 1+ 5,000+ 255+ million

Several weeks of torrential rains led to flooding and landslides Severe weather on the 25th and 26th occurred in the city of throughout Peru. In the southern city of Cusco, a large landslide Rio, Brazil, killing at least one person and injuring dozens of struck on the 3rd that left at least nine people dead. The others. Flooding was widespread throughout the city, with the landslide occurred after the rains caused soils on Ayahuyco Hill to neighborhoods of Maracana and Praca de Bandeira sustaining loosen, which triggered the collapse which fell on the Villa Maria the brunt of the damage. Reports indicated that the floods and region of the city. Floods damaged nearly 5,500 homes across landslides caused significant damage to homes, businesses and the the country. transportation infrastructure. The Brazilian government released BRL400 million (USD255 million) for relief and recovery efforts.

41 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Exhibit 55: South America May Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

1/1-5/31 Flooding Colombia 116+ 375,000+ 5.85+ billion

Major ongoing flooding continued to affect Colombia, which damaged. Tens of thousands of additional schools, businesses, was inundated with persistent rainfall that began in April 2010. medical facilities and other structures were directly impacted. At least 1,027 out of 1,100 municipalities within 28 of the The transportation infrastructure was also decimated by nation’s 32 provinces sustained significant flood and landslide landslides that covered national roads and municipal highways, damage. According to official government statistics, at least 116 and swollen rivers destroyed dozens of major bridges and fatalities were recorded in 2011. More than 1.06 million hectares levee/dyke systems. The Colombian government noted that the (2.5 million acres) of land were submerged, and more than floods from 2011 alone had a COP10.44 trillion (USD5.85 billion) 12,000 homes were destroyed and nearly 360,000 others were economic impact.

Exhibit 56: South America June Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

6/1-6/6 Flooding Brazil 0 1,000+ 9.4+ million

6/4-6/15 Volcano Chile 0 Unknown Unknown

6/7 Severe Weather Chile 0 100+ Unknown

Six consecutive days of heavy rains between the 1st and the Chile’s Cordon Caulle volcano erupted for the first time since 6th led to the worst floods since 1976 in the northern Brazilian 1960 on the 4th, sending a 10-kilometer-high (six-mile) plume state of Roraima. According to government officials, a state of ash that affected parts of South America and even areas as far of emergency was declared after several rivers overflowed away as Australia and New Zealand. The volcano covered the their banks. The Branco River, which rose to a record-high Chilean resorts of San Carlos de Bariloche and Villa la Angostura 10.02 meters (32.87 feet), flooded many areas in Roraima – with ash, which was measured at up to 50 centimeters (29 including the capital of Boa Vista, which saw 80 percent of its inches) deep on some nearby roads and farms. Outside of Chile, neighborhoods inundated. The flood also submerged several ash from Cordon Caulle led to the cancellation of domestic and main roads and federal highways. Total damages were listed at international flights throughout . BRL15 million (USD9.4 million). A powerful thunderstorm ripped through a Chilean resort town on the 7th, injuring dozens of people. At least 100 homes were damaged in the town of Villarrica after large hail pelted the area and a suspected tornado with 200 kph (125 mph) winds touched down.

42 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 57: South America July Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

7/16-7/18 Flooding Brazil 10+ 1,000+ Unknown

7/23-7/28 Flooding Brazil 3+ Thousands+ Unknown

Persistent heavy rains between the 16th and the 18th led to Heavy rainfall between the 23rd and the 28th in Brazil’s Rio widespread flooding in northeastern Brazil, leaving at least 10 Grande do Sul state led to the deaths of at least three people. people dead in the states of Pernambuco and Paraiba. A state At least 27 towns within 16 municipalities declared a was declared in 28 separate towns as more than of emergency and damage during the event. State officials 1,000 homes were damaged from flooding and mudslides. A reported that more than 123,000 residents were affected, water supply station and 16 dams were also severely damaged. particularly after six rivers had breached flood stage. In terms of the transportation infrastructure, high water levels and debris led to the closure of several main roadways.

August

There were no significant natural disaster events in South America during the month of August.

Exhibit 58: South America September Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

9/6-9/9 Flooding Brazil 3+ 48,000+ Millions+

Brazil’s Santa Catarina state declared a state of emergency after four days of rain ending on the 9th caused significant flooding in 15 separate towns. At least three people were killed after several rivers (including the Itajai-Acu River) overflowed their banks. More than 680,000 residents were left homeless after 48,000 homes were inundated. Landslides also closed several state highways.

Exhibit 59: South America October Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

10/28 Earthquake Peru 0 200+ Unknown

A magnitude-6.9 earthquake rattled the central coast of Peru on the 28th, leaving at least 103 people injured. The offshore tremor destroyed more than 134 homes and damaged several businesses and churches near the city of Ica.

43 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Exhibit 60: South America November Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

11/5-11/6 Flooding Colombia 55+ 100+ Unknown

Days of heavy rainfall led to a massive mudslide in the Colombian city of Manizales on the 5th, killing at least 48 people and injuring dozens of others. The slide destroyed at least 14 homes in the Cervantes neighborhood. On the 6th, at least seven additional people were killed in the city of Cali after a swollen river burst its banks. Widespread damage was reported to dozens of homes in the region.

Exhibit 61: South America December Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

12/5-12/16 Flooding Colombia 21+ 10,000+ Unknown

12/6-12/8 Flooding Venezuela 8+ 4,800+ 15.8+ million

12/16-12/18 Flooding Brazil 2+ 1,520+ Unknown

Consecutive days of rain across central and eastern sections million (USD15.8 million) had been released for disaster relief. of Colombia between the 5th and the 16th triggered a series Widespread damage from the floods and mudslides were of landslides and river flooding. In Herveo municipality in reported across multiple states, including Miranda, Zulia, Merida, Tolima Province, a large landslide crushed a home and killed at Tachira, Caracas and Trujillo. More than 4,800 homes sustained least seven people; while six additional people were killed in flood inundation and at least 1,096 of those homes were listed as Santander Province. The most significant impacts came in Bogota destroyed. In addition to the structural damage, it was reported after the Bogota River overflowed its banks and damaged at least that significant impacts had occurred to the transportation and 10,000 homes. More than 700 farms were also submerged, and electrical infrastructures. the region’s sewer system collapsed. Eight additional fatalities occurred in Caldas after a large landslide struck. At least two people were killed in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais after consecutive days of heavy rains between the 16th Persistent heavy rains spawned flooding and mudslides across and the 18th inundated 19 separate towns. Local Civil Defense parts of Venezuela between the 6th and the 8th, killing at officials reported that more than 1,500 homes and 14 bridges least eight people. The government reported that VEB60 were damaged or destroyed.

44 Impact Forecasting

Europe

• Early November floods inundate parts of France and Italy; insured losses in excess of USD1 billion

• Magnitude-7.2 earthquake kills at least 604 people in eastern Turkey

• Major flash flood and river flood event in early July strikes

Exhibit 62: Europe January Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

1/9-1/14 Flooding , , 5+ Thousands+ Millions+

1/29 Earthquake Hungary 0 17,000+ 15+ million

The combination of warming temperatures and rainfall led to A magnitude-4.3 earthquake rattled parts of Hungary on the melting of a large snowpack across parts of Germany, Poland 29th. The tremor struck in the seismic zone known as the and the Czech Republic. The most notable floods occurred in Bend. According to the National Disaster Management Germany, where at least five people were killed. Thousands of Agency, minor damage to buildings occurred (mostly small homes, businesses, agriculture and other personal property were cracks in facades) primarily near the epicenter in the town of damaged across nearly every section of the country. The floods Oroszlany. Insurers received 17,000 claims, with payouts totaling also inundated large swaths of the transportation infrastructure. HUF2.1 billion (USD9.4 million). Total economic losses were The high river waters forced several main ports to temporarily slightly higher. shut down shipping routes, including a 140-kilometer (90-mile) stretch between Cologne and Bingen. Total economic losses were well into the millions of dollars (USD).

Exhibit 63: Europe February Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

2/1-2/28 Winter Weather Poland 29+ Unknown Unknown

An extended severe cold spell affected Poland as the death toll rose to 29, with the majority of the deaths blamed on hypothermia as temperatures fell to -20°C (-4°F) in the cities of Warsaw and Bialystok. The cold also led to transportation effects as 25 separate train services were cancelled across the country due to extreme levels of frost.

March

There were no significant natural disaster events in Europe during the month of March.

45 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Exhibit 64: Europe April Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

4/8-4/10 Severe Weather , 0 500+ Unknown

A storm system brought heavy rain, snow and very gusty winds blown off roofs and downed trees. At the Keflavik International across parts of between the 8th and the 10th. Airport, a large hole was ripped at the Icelandair hangar which In Norway, high winds tore the roofs off of homes and other forced passengers to remain on their aircraft. Several main structures, with insurance companies noting a large number of roads were forced to close due to the excessive wind and claims having been filed. In Iceland, emergency rescue officials precipitation. responded to more than 400 damage reports – primarily due to

Exhibit 65: Europe May Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

5/12 Earthquakes 9+ 33,000+ 400+ million

5/19 Earthquake Turkey 3+ 2,500+ 260+ million

5/21-5/25 Volcano Western & 0 Unknown 50+ million

5/23 Severe Weather 1+ Hundreds+ 6.5+ million

Two earthquakes rattled southern Spain on the 12th, leaving at sustained structural effects. Most of Simav lost electricity and least nine people dead and 400 others injured in the town of telecommunications in the hours that followed. Total economic Lorca. According to the United States Geological Survey, the first losses were estimated at TRY460 million (USD260 million), with tremor (a magnitude-4.5) struck at 5:05 PM local time (15:05 insured losses only TRY7.86 million (USD4.3 million). UTC) with an epicenter 55 kilometers (34 miles) southwest of Murcia, Spain. The second temblor, a stronger magnitude-5.1, Iceland’s Grímsvötn volcano erupted on the 21st, sending ash struck shortly after at 6:47 PM local time (16:47 UTC) with an and steam as high as 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) into the air. In epicenter 50 kilometers (31 miles) southwest of Murcia, Spain. the four days that followed, the ash plume crossed the Atlantic At least 20,000 homes and other structures sustained various into western and central Europe. Parts of Scotland, northern levels of damage (approximately 10 percent of all homes). The England, Germany, Poland, Russia and Scandinavia reported transportation infrastructure was also affected, with numerous volcanic ash, which led to temporary flight cancellations and roads showing large cracks. Additional damage was reported in airport closures. Approximately 1,600 flights were cancelled the areas of Totana, Albacete and Velez-Rubio in Almeria. Insured (mostly in Scotland and airports in Hamburg, Bremen and losses were listed at EUR259 million (USD359 million), with total Berlin in Germany) before the ash began to clear. Airlines noted economic losses in excess of EUR 289 million (USD400 million). that total business interruption losses were approximately EUR35 million (USD50 million). A moderate earthquake rattled western sections of Turkey on the 19th, leaving at least three people dead and more than A powerful storm brought winds gusting to nearly 115 mph (185 125 others injured. The magnitude-5.8 tremor struck at 11:15 kph) across parts of Scotland on the 23rd, killing at least one pm local time (20:15 UTC) with an epicenter 80 kilometers (50 person. According to government officials, the storm tore the miles) west-southwest from Kutahya, Turkey at a depth of 9.1 roofs off of hundreds of homes and businesses. In addition to kilometers (5.7 miles). Widespread significant damage was not property damage, farmers noted crop damage at GBP4 million reported, though upwards of 2,500 buildings in the town of Simav (USD6.5 million).

46 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 66: Europe June Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

6/28 Severe Weather Netherlands 0 Hundreds+ Millions+

Strong thunderstorms ripped through parts of the Netherlands led to downed trees, flooding and the rupturing of some gas on the 28th, causing localized damage primarily in the southern lines. Debris covered railways also caused delays on Dutch Rail. province of North Brabant. Local media in the towns of Boxmeer The Dutch Association of Insurers reported that damages were and Vught reported that torrential rains, hail and damaging winds anticipated to reach into the millions of .

Exhibit 67: Europe July Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

7/2-7/3 Flooding Denmark 0 60,000+ 1+ billion

7/8 Flooding Scotland 0 100+ 1+ million

Some of the heaviest rains in at least 25 years fell in the Denmark A torrential rainstorm on the 8th led to widespread flooding capital of Copenhagen and surrounding areas on the 2nd and 3rd. in southern and western sections of Edinburgh in Scotland. At least 1,700 separate residential homes and hundreds of other According to officials from Lothian and Borders Fire and Rescue, businesses reported flood inundation, with Danish police forced the flash floods damaged at least 40 homes and flooded dozens to close four major highways surrounding Copenhagen. Thecity’s of cars. Multiple businesses were damaged as well. The Edinburgh main train station, Hovedbanegården, was closed due to downed Chamber of Commerce reported that damage costs were switching signals, muddy tracks and washed out roads. The anticipated to reach at least USD1 million. Danish Insurance Association reported having received 60,000 claims with total payouts exceeding DKK4.75 billion (USD880 million). Total economic losses were slightly higher.

Exhibit 68: Europe August Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

8/18 Severe Weather Belgium 5+ Unknown 105+ million

A severe thunderstorm brought extremely gusty winds and large hail to the town of Hasselt, Belgium on the 18th. At least five people were killed and 71 others were injured at an outdoor music festival after major damage occurred to the main stage area. Total economic losses were listed at EUR76 million (USD105 million).

47 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Exhibit 69: Europe September Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

9/12-9/13 PT Katia 1+ Hundreds+ 158+ million

The post-tropical remnants of quickly crossed the Wales and . The majority of the damage was torn off roofs, Atlantic, and came ashore in the United Kingdom on the 12th. downed trees and flooding. The Association of British Insurers At least one person was killed as the system brought periods (ABI) reported that the combination of damage, clean-up costs of very gusty winds, high surf and heavy rains. Widespread and business interruptions were at least GBP100 million (USD158 damage was reported in northern sections of Britain, Scotland, million).

Exhibit 70: Europe October Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

10/23 Earthquake Turkey 604+ 15,000+ 750+ million

10/23-10/26 Flooding Italy, Ireland, Spain 10+ Hundreds+ 92+ million

A powerful earthquake struck eastern Turkey on the 23rd, killing A strong storm system spawned torrential rains, flooding and at least 604 people and leaving more than 4,152 others injured. mudslides across parts of Europe between the 23rd and the 26th. The magnitude-7.2 earthquake struck at 1:41 PM local time (10:41 At least 10 fatalities were recorded. In Italy, the worst affected UTC) with an epicenter 16 kilometers (9 miles) north-northeast areas came in the regions of Tuscany and , with the of Van, Turkey at a relatively shallow depth of 20 kilometers (12.4 villages of Cinque Terre, Spezia, Aulla, Five Lands and Borghetto miles). Widespread substantial damage occurred throughout Vara sustaining the most significant damage. The floods swept Van Province, with at least 11,232 buildings listed as destroyed away roads and bridges, and damaged hundreds of homes and or having sustained severe effects. Multi-level buildings, hotels, businesses. The government released EUR65 million (USD92 businesses and dormitories were all impacted. Dozens of villages million) for recovery efforts. Both Ireland and Spain saw inundation near the epicenter, where construction was poor, saw thousands as well after several rivers overflowed their banks and damaged of additional homes collapse. Economic loss estimates were at homes, businesses and infrastructure. least TRY1.33 trillion (USD750 million), with insured losses listed at approximately TRY54.8 million (USD30 million).

48 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 71: Europe November Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

11/3-11/7 Flooding Italy, France 10+ Thousands+ 1.25+ billion

11/9 Earthquake Turkey 40+ Hundreds+ Unknown

A slow-moving extratropical area of low pressure (named ‘Rolf’) France’s state-owned CCR Group noted that total insured losses in the brought consecutive days of torrential in the country alone were EUR800 million (USD1.09 billion). Total rains and gusty winds across portions of France and Italy between economic losses were slightly higher. the 3rd and the 7th. French officials noted that 16 southern departments sustained impacts as several rivers overflowed their A magnitude-5.6 aftershock rattled eastern Turkey on the 9th, banks and inundated homes, businesses and vehicles. Some of killing at least 40 people and injuring dozens more. The tremor the notable affected cities were Vallerague, Sablières, Loubaresse, struck at 9:23 PM local time (19:23 UTC) with an epicenter 16 , and . At least three fatalities were kilometers (9 miles) south of Van, Turkey. According to Turkish recorded. In Italy, several cities (including , , officials, at least 25 buildings collapsed in the city of Van with and ) sustained various levels of flood inundation to hundreds of others sustaining cracking. The tremor was an hundreds of properties and vehicles. At least seven people died. aftershock of the magnitude-7.2 earthquake which struck on October 23rd.

Exhibit 72: Europe December Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

12/8-12/10 WS Friedhelm United Kingdom, Scandinavia 0 1,000+ 156+ million

12/15-12/17 WS Joachim France, Germany, 0 Thousands+ 325+ million

12/25-12/27 WS Dagmar Norway, , 1+ 7,000+ 177+ million

Windstorm Friedhelm developed and swept across parts of the 973 millibars (28.81 inches of mercury). At least 600,000 power United Kingdom and Scandinavia between the 8th and the 10th, outages were reported throughout the country, in addition to bringing extremely gusty winds, heavy rainfall and flooding that severe travel disruptions. A cargo ship ran aground in the caused widespread damage. Scotland was the most affected region, which resulted in the leakage of fuel. The system later as winds gusting in excess of 170 kph (105 mph) prompted the moved inland before affecting parts of Germany, Switzerland, closure of schools, businesses and public transport services. In the Belgium and other countries in the region, where additional town of Strathclyde, at least 500 weather-related incidents were travel impacts and damage was reported. The French Federation recorded; while additional damage reports came in Glasgow, of Insurance Companies estimated losses from the event at up to Campbeltown, Falkirk, Stirling, Dalry, Ardrossan and Aberdeen. EUR250 million (USD325 million). Outside of Scotland, isolated reports of river flooding and wind damage were recorded in parts of Ireland, England, Wales, Windstorm Dagmar developed and swept across parts of the Finland and Sweden. Total economic losses have been estimated between the 25th and the 27th, leaving at least one person dead. by professional services firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) at In terms of damage and effects, the most significant impacts came approximately GBP100 million (USD156 million). The loss estimate in Norway – where at least 6,000 claims had been filed. Total includes business interruption and electricity restoration costs. insured losses were anticipated to exceed NOK275 million (USD46 Insured losses were listed as minimal. million). In Finland, the Federation of Finnish Financial Services reported that insured losses may exceed EUR100 million (USD131 Windstorm Joachim came ashore across the northwest coast of million) due to excessive damage being prevalent in some areas. France on the 15th while triggering wind gusts in excess of 150 Similar impacts were felt in Sweden after hurricane-force winds kph (90 mph). According to France’s weather service, Météo- engulfed parts of the country. Fallen trees and debris damaged France, Joachim came ashore with a minimum central pressure of hundreds of homes and covered local roads. 49 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Africa

• January floods inundate parts of southern Africa; more than 135 people killed

• Cyclone Bingiza comes ashore in Madagascar

• Extensive flooding in Nigeria leaves more than 100 people dead

Exhibit 73: Africa January Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

1/1-1/31 Flooding , Mozambique 136+ 38,000+ 495+ million

At least 123 people died across the South African provinces of homes were destroyed in floods in neighboring Mozambique Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal after consecutive weeks of after the Zambezi River overflowed. Parts of Botswana, Namibia, flooding and severe weather inundated the region. Disaster Zambia and Zimbabwe also reported widespread flood damage. zones were declared in 33 separate areas, including in parts of Total economic losses to property and agriculture in South Africa Johannesburg. More than 25,000 homes were damaged along were listed at ZAR3.55 billion (USD495 million). Local insurers with thousands of hectares (acres) of crops after the Orange River received at least 1,300 claims with payouts totaling ZAR30 million overflowed its banks. An additional 13 people died and 13,000 (USD4.13 million).

Exhibit 74: Africa February Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

2/14-2/16 CY Bingiza Madagascar, Mozambique 35+ 35,729+ Unknown

Tropical Cyclone Bingiza made separate landfalls in Madagascar and other structures were destroyed by the storm’s winds and on the 14th and the 16th, causing damage and leaving at least 35 flooding rains. Agriculture and the transportation infrastructure people dead. The first landfall occurred after the cyclone tracked were also heavily damaged. In Mozambique, at least 9,600 homes across the Masoala Peninsula and skirted Antongil Bay. The three sustained flood damage in the Zambezi Valley from heavy rains most affected districts were Maroantsetra, Mananara North and triggered by Bingiza. Mandritsara as assessments indicated that at least 26,129 homes,

Exhibit 75: Africa March Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

3/1-4/12 Flooding Namibia 65+ 30,000+ 15+ million

Heavy rains fell across northern sections of Namibia between the early March and mid-April, leading to the deaths of at least 65 people in the village of Oshakati. The regions of Oshana, Ohangwena, Caprivi and Omusati were the most affected with 30,000 homes and structures damaged. Total economic damages were NAD100 million (USD15 million).

50 Impact Forecasting

April / May

There were no significant natural disaster events in Africa during the month of April or May.

Exhibit 76: Africa June Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

6/21-6/22 Flooding Nigeria 24+ 1,000+ 4.5+ million

Torrential rains in northern Nigeria on the 21st and 22nd the flash floods damaged hundreds of homes and other prompted major flooding in the towns of Kano, Lagos and other commercial properties. Additional damage was reported to the nearby cities. At least 24 people were killed and more than transportation infrastructure and vehicles. Economic costs were 150 others were injured after the floods inundated numerous at least NIO100 million (USD4.5 million). neighborhoods. According to the News Agency of Nigeria,

Exhibit 77: Africa July Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

7/22-7/29 Flooding Benin 0 1,000+ Unknown

Excessive rainfall spawned major flooding across the communities of Lokossa, Athiémé Bopa and Cotonou Littoral in Benin between the 22nd and the 29th. The local Red Cross reported that at least 1,000 homes were destroyed and several roads were submerged. There were no reports of fatalities or injuries.

Exhibit 78: Africa August Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

8/10-8/31 Flooding Uganda 43+ 30,000+ Unknown

8/20-8/31 Flooding Nigeria 102+ 10,000+ Unknown

Excessive rains, which fell persistently throughout the month of Weeks of heavy rains between the 20th and the 31st led to the August, prompted significant flooding in eastern, western and deaths of at least 102 people across nearly every section of southwestern sections of Uganda. Red Cross officials reported Nigeria. Officials from the National Emergency Management that more than 30,000 homes had been damaged or destroyed Agency reported that the rains spawned flash flooding and by floodwaters, which impacted at least 150,000 people. Tens of also caused rivers and streams to overflow their banks. The thousands of hectares (acres) of crops were also submerged by states of Bauchi and Oyo were affected most severely, where the floods. At least 43 fatalities were recorded as separate large at least 10,000 homes were destroyed and tens of thousands landslides in Bulambuli district crushed dozens of homes at the of hectares (acres) of cropland were submerged. Hundreds of foothills of the Elgon Mountains. livestock also perished.

51 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Exhibit 79: Africa September Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

9/30-10/1 Flooding Algeria 10+ Thousands+ 803+ million

Several days of torrential rains in the El-Bayadh region of Algeria agricultural infrastructures after both flash flood and river at the end of September into early October led to the deaths of flooding swept through the region. Total economic losses were at least 10 people. Significant damage occurred to thousands listed at DZD59.7 billion (USD803 million). of homes and vehicles, in addition to the transportation and

Exhibit 80: Africa October Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

10/2 Severe Weather South Africa 1+ 1,000+ Unknown

10/20-10/28 Flooding Nigeria 10+ 25,000+ Unknown

Rounds of severe weather impacted parts of South Africa on the Nearly 10 days of heavy rainfall (beginning on October 20th) 2nd, spawning multiple tornado touchdowns. At least one person spawned widespread flooding across southern and central was killed after tornadoes damaged or destroyed nearly 1,000 sections of Nigeria. At least 10 people died and 25,000 homes homes in the towns of Ficksburg and Duduza. More than 285 were submerged in areas around the city of Lagos and villages in people were injured. Imo State after rivers overflowed their banks.

November

There were no significant natural disaster events in Africa during the month of November.

Exhibit 81: Africa December Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

12/3 Flooding Tanzania 9+ 6,776+ Unknown

12/31 Severe Weather South Africa 5+ Hundreds+ 9.71+ million

Torrential rainfall and high winds affected parts of the Kilimanjaro, A powerful thunderstorm ripped through the KwaZulu-Natal Arusha and Mbeya regions of Tanzania on the 3rd, spawning flash midlands areas of uMsinga and uMvoti in South Africa on the floods and landslides. At least nine people were killed as the storm 31st, killing at least five people and leaving more than 22 others damaged or destroyed more than 6,776 homes. Floodwaters also injured. According to local government officials, the storm caused submerged large swaths of cropland and drowned livestock. significant damage to hundreds of homes, businesses, schools and other structures in addition to wide swaths of the transportation and electrical infrastructures. Total economic losses were listed at ZAR78 million (USD9.71 million).

52 Impact Forecasting

Asia

• Magnitude-9.0 earthquake and subsequent tsunami cause extensive damage and fatalities in Japan

• Historic flooding in Thailand kills more than 790 people; damage costs in the tens of billions (USD)

• Flooding spawns widespread damage and loss of life in China, Pakistan and Southeast Asia

Exhibit 82: Asia January Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

1/1-6/30 Drought China 0 Unknown 2.67+ billion

1/1-1/28 Flooding Philippines 75+ 5,729+ 46.6+ million

1/1-1/24 Winter Weather China 2+ 150,000+ 1.17+ billion

1/2-1/15 Flooding Sri Lanka 43+ 50,000+ 500+ million

1/19 Earthquake Pakistan 0 200+ Unknown

1/29-1/31 Flooding 5+ 25,000+ 50+ million

A severe drought gripped parts of China from January through Consecutive weeks of heavy rains brought extensive flooding the end of June, particularly the provinces of , Hebei, to much of Sri Lanka between the 2nd and the 15th. At least 43 Henan, , Shanxi and . More than 6.96 million people died and 51 more were injured in floods that inundated hectares (17.2 million acres) of land were damaged after many Northern, Eastern, Central and North Central provinces in areas saw less than 20 percent of its normal rainfall. Total the country. According to the National Disaster Management economic losses across all six affected provinces were listed at Center, at least 50,000 homes, businesses and other structures CNY17 billion (USD2.67 billion). were damaged along with 244,000 hectares (603,000 acres) of rice fields, and large swaths of the transportation and The Northeast Monsoon combined with additional moisture electrical infrastructures. More than 240,000 livestock were also to spawn consecutive weeks of heavy rain across 25 separate killed during the event. Total economic losses were listed by provinces in Southern Luzon, and in the government officials at LKR55.4 billion (USD500 million). Philippines. At least 75 people died following floods and landslides that occurred between December 29, 2010 and A strong magnitude-7.2 earthquake struck southwest Pakistan January 28, 2011. According to the National Disaster Coordinating on the 19th, causing minor damage near the epicenter. The main Council, at least 5,729 homes were damaged or destroyed and tremor occurred at 1:23 AM local time (20:23 UTC on the 18th) more than two million people were affected. Total economic approximately 45 kilometers (30 miles) west of Dalbandin, Pakistan. losses were listed at PHP2.06 billion (USD46.6 million) after According to government officials, more than 200 mud homes damage to agricultural crops, infrastructure and personal were destroyed along with offices of Chagai District managers property occurred. in the Dalbandin area. Additional minor damage was reported throughout the province. No injuries or fatalities occurred. Wintry weather affected much of southern and eastern China between the 1st and the 24th. According to the Ministry of Flooding rains between the 29th and the 31st led to inundation Civil Affairs, the provinces of Yunnan, Hunan, Sichuan, , across parts of Malaysia. At least five people died in the states Guizhou, , Chongqing and Guangxi were most affected by of Johor, southern Malacca, central Negri Sembilan, eastern the heavy snow and freezing rain. At least two people died in the Pahang and state on Island. Widespread damage event, more than 150,000 homes were destroyed and 142,400 was reported throughout the affected areas, particularly to the hectares (352,000 acres) of crops were affected. Economic losses agricultural and electrical infrastructures. Transportation was also were listed at CNY7.4 billion (USD1.17 billion). hampered, including the suspension of the Malaysian Railway that connects to neighboring . Total economic losses were estimated at MYR158 million (USD50 million). 53 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Exhibit 83: Asia February Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

1/31-2/7 Flooding Philippines 22+ 2,598+ 12.3+ million

2/1-2/10 Flooding Sri Lanka 18+ 27,497+ 450+ million

2/1 Earthquake China 0 678+ Unknown

2/3-2/17 Winter Weather Afghanistan 25+ 3,000+ Unknown

2/11-2/13 Winter Weather 0 1,000+ 70+ million

The combination of severe weather and flooding rains led to Two weeks of heavy snowfall and flash floods affected multiple the deaths of at least 22 people across parts of the Philippines sections of Afghanistan between the 3rd and the 17th. According between January 31st and February 7th. Local officials reported to the Afghanistan National Disasters Management Authority, at that flash floods, river flooding, landslides, and tornadoes all least 20 people died and 53 more were injured in the provinces caused damage across the affected areas. The National Disaster of Parwan, Heart, Wardak and Daykundi due to flooding rains. Coordinating Council indicated that 2,598 homes were damaged More than 3,000 homes were damaged during the event. The or destroyed with widespread impacts to agriculture and additional five fatalities occurred in the northeastern province of the transportation infrastructure. Total economic losses were . estimated at PHP539 million (USD12.3 million). Eastern sections of South Korea sustained the heaviest snowfall Fresh rounds of torrential rains between the 1st and the 10th totals in 100 years between the 11th and the 13th. The provinces led to renewed flooding across north, north central and eastern of Gangwon, North Gyeongsang and South Gyeongsang sections of Sri Lanka. At least 18 people were killed and more were most affected by the event. According to the Gangwon than 26,761 homes were damaged or destroyed across 18 Regional Meteorological Administration, an all-time South Korean separate districts after persistent monsoonal rains continued to one-day record of 77.7 centimeters (30.6 inches) was recorded in fall over the country. Total economic losses were listed at LKR50 Gangneung. Widespread damage was reported, with hundreds billion (USD450 million). of homes, businesses, livestock sheds and greenhouses sustaining roof collapses. The snow also led to travel chaos, with several A magnitude-4.8 earthquake struck southwest China’s Yunnan primary highways being closed and flights also being cancelled. Province on the 1st, affecting over 80,000 people. The tremor The Disaster and Safety Management Office reported that total struck at 3:11 PM Tuesday afternoon (7:11 UTC) with an epicenter economic losses were KRW77.7 billion (USD69.9 million). 245 kilometers (150 miles) west-southwest of the city of Dali at a depth of 39.6 kilometers (24.6 miles). According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the earthquake had damaged or destroyed at least 678 homes.

54 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 84: Asia March Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

3/10 Earthquake China 26+ 68,000+ 290+ million

3/11 Earthquake Japan 15,844+ 1.1+ million 210+ billion

3/17-3/31 Flooding Indonesia 13+ 5,000+ Unknown

3/21-4/8 Flooding Thailand 61+ 609,679+ 880+ million

3/24 Earthquake Myanmar, Thailand 75+ 3,194+ 3.6+ million

A moderate earthquake rattled parts of southwest China near Persistent heavy rains fell between the 17th and the 31st in Papua, the border with Myanmar on the 10th. The magnitude-5.4 Indonesia, which spawned floods that left at least 13 people tremor occurred at 11:28 AM local time (4:58 UTC) with an dead. More than 5,000 homes were destroyed as floodwaters epicenter in Yingjiang County, Yunnan Province, China. At least rose as high as 2 meters (6.6 feet) in several districts after the Aga 26 people were killed and 313 others were injured. According River overflowed its banks. Thousands of hectares (acres) of crops to officials from China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs, the earthquake sustained inundation. An unspecified number of livestock also damaged or destroyed at least 68,000 homes in Yingjiang perished during the event. County. Supermarkets, apartments and hotels also collapsed in areas closest to the epicenter. The Chinese government allocated Torrential monsoonal rains inundated southern sections of CNY1.84 billion (USD290 million) for relief and recovery costs. Thailand between late March and early April, leaving at least 61 people dead. Ten provinces were listed as disaster zones after A massive mega-earthquake and tsunami struck the more than a year’s worth of rain fell during a six-day span. At least northeastern coast of Japan on the 11th, killing at least 602,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, 6,600 main roads 15,844 people, injuring 5,890, leaving 3,500 others missing and bridges were washed away or damaged, 1,367 schools and and causing damage to at least 1.1 million homes and other hospitals were damaged, 269,000 hectares (664,000 acres) of structures. The main magnitude-9.0 earthquake struck at 2:46 farmland were submerged, power poles snapped and thousands PM local time (5:46 UTC) with an epicenter 130 kilometers of residents and tourists were left stranded. Transportation via (80 miles) east of Sendai, Japan and 373 kilometers (231 miles) airports and railways were also suspended due to flooding. northeast of at a depth of 24.4 kilometers (15.2 miles). Thailand’s Economic and Business Forecasting Center anticipated Ground shaking from the temblor reportedly lasted for two economic damages at THB26.5 billion (USD880 million). full minutes. Following the main tremor, more than 1,000 aftershocks rattled the region with at least 70 shocks registering A strong, magnitude-6.8 earthquake rattled northeast Myanmar above magnitude-6.0. The tremor spawned a significant on the 24th, causing widespread damage and leaving at least tsunami (in excess of 15 meters (49.2 feet)) that swept across 75 people dead. According to the USGS, the main tremor struck the coastlines of Miyagi, Iwate and Fukushima prefectures. Many at 8:25 PM local time (13:55 UTC) with an epicenter located 89 towns were completely washed away. In the days that followed kilometers (55 miles) north of Chiang Rai, Thailand. Myanmar’s the earthquake and tsunami, the attention shifted to several official state media reported that at least 700 homes, 14 Buddhist nuclear reactor failures at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power monasteries and nine government buildings were destroyed. A plant facility. The Japanese government listed total economic small hospital and a main bridge were also severely damaged. In losses to at JPY16.3 trillion (USD210 billion); while total insured Thailand, one woman was killed after a wall collapsed; though losses were anticipated to exceed JPY2.7 trillion (USD35 billion). damage elsewhere was not extensive. Total damages were listed at MMK23.5 million (USD3.6 million).

55 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Exhibit 85: Asia April Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

4/4 Severe Weather 17+ 500+ Unknown

4/9-4/15 Flooding 2+ 9,000+ 135.2+ million

4/11 Earthquake China 0 5,900+ 6.1+ million

4/17 Flooding Indonesia 10+ Dozens+ Unknown

4/17-4/18 Severe Weather China 0 3,200+ 26.2+ million

4/22 Flooding Philippines 14+ 50+ Unknown

4/28-4/30 Sandstorm China 0 21,000+ Unknown

A deadly tornado tore through northern towns in Bangladesh At least 10 people were killed and seven others were injured on the 4th, killing at least 17 people and injuring more than on the 17th in Indonesia’s East Java province after heavy rains 150 others. The districts of Jamalpur, Thakurgaon, Sherpur, prompted a large landslide. An 80-meter (260-foot) cliff in Mymensingh, Gaibandha, Joypurhat and Bogra were the most Malang district collapsed, causing the deaths. affected areas where hundreds of homes were destroyed, along with wide swaths of crop and trees. A series of severe thunderstorms spawned large hail throughout southwestern China on the 17th and 18th, killing at least 21 Days of heavy rain between the 9th and the 15th combined with people and injuring 155 others. The provinces of , melting snow to spawn widespread flooding across western Guizhou and Hainan were primarily affected, with the Ministry Kazakhstan. At least two people died and more than 9,000 of Civil Affairs noting that more than 3,200 homes and homes and commercial buildings were damaged. According to thousands of hectares (acres) of farmland were damaged by the government officials, at least 300 kilometers (186 miles) of roads hailstones. Total economic losses were listed at CNY171 million and thousands of hectares (acres) of crops were also destroyed (USD26.2 million). along with additional damage to dams, bridges, power lines, telephone lines and gas pipelines. Total economic damages were In the Philippines, at least 14 people were killed after a landslide listed at KZT20 billion (USD135.2 million). struck a small mining area in Compostela Province on the 22nd. Dozens of homes were also destroyed in the event. A magnitude-5.1 temblor struck China’s Sichuan Province at 5:02 PM local time (9:02 UTC) on the 11th with an epicenter in Luhuo Sandstorms swept across ten Chinese provinces between the County. More than 5,900 homes were severely damaged across 28th and the 30th, damaging or destroying at least 21,000 18 separate townships in the county. Total economic losses were homes. Local government officials reported that the sandstorms listed at CNY40 million (USD6.1 million). also damaged thousands of hectares (acres) of crops.

56 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 86: Asia May Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

4/30-5/2 Severe Weather China 0 5,000+ 20.5+ million

5/7-5/9 Flooding China 19+ 1,000+ Millions+

5/8-5/9 TS Aere Philippines 35+ 9,420+ 31.6+ million

5/15-7/15 Flooding Nepal 75+ 500+ Millions+

5/26-5/29 STY Songda Philippines, Japan 17+ 1,000+ 3+ million

Strong thunderstorms affected China’s Guizhou and Guangdong the cyclone caused widespread flooding and landslides that provinces between April 30th and May 2nd. The combination submerged roads and bridges. More than 9,420 homes were of torrential rains and golf ball-sized hail damaged or destroyed damaged or destroyed and the agricultural infrastructure saw thousands of homes and also more than 10,500 hectares (26,000 nearly 10,000 hectares (24,700 acres) of crops damaged. Total acres) of farmland. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, total economic losses were listed at PHP1.37 billion (USD31.6 million). economic losses were listed at CNY134 million (USD20.5 million). Super became the first Category 5 cyclone of Flooding and landslides were recorded in southern sections 2011 prior to weakening and skirting parts of the Philippines and of China between the 7th and the 9th, killing at least 19 Japan between the 26th and 29th. In the Philippines, Songda people. Heavy rains led to a series of large landslides in the left at least four people dead, more than 131 homes damaged Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, causing the fatalities. In or destroyed and caused widespread damage to agriculture and neighboring Guangdong Province, heavy rains damaged nearly other infrastructure. As the cyclone impacted Japan, it brought 1,000 homes, bridges and roadways. Thousands of hectares torrential rains that spawned flooding and landslides to several (acres) of cropland were also submerged. southern prefectures. At least 13 people were killed, hundreds of homes, businesses and schools were damaged and more than Tropical Storm Aere made separate landfalls in parts of the 219 roads and bridges were swept away across the country. Philippines on the 8th and 9th, bringing torrential rains and Economic losses in the Philippines were listed at PHP130 million flooding. At least 35 people were killed. Aere made its first (USD3 million). landfall over northern Catanduanes before making a second, and final, landfall over northern Casiguran, Luzon Island. According to the Philippines’ National Disaster Coordinating Council,

57 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Exhibit 87: Asia June Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

6/1-6/24 Flooding China 239+ 500,000+ 6.65+ billion

6/1-6/19 Flooding Philippines 10+ 1,000+ 9.4+ million

6/4-6/11 TS Sarika Philippines, China 32+ 15,000+ 248+ million

6/5 Flooding Singapore 0 Dozens+ Unknown

6/11-6/12 Flooding Tajikistan 0 500+ Unknown

6/19-6/24 TS Haima China, Philippines, Vietnam 23+ 5,000+ 50+ million

6/20 Earthquake China 0 12,094+ 9.2+ million

6/25-6/30 TS Meari Philippines, China, Korea 17+ 5,000+ 44+ million

6/27-6/28 Flooding India 31+ 25,750+ Unknown

6/28 Flooding Philippines 30+ 500+ Unknown

Persistent rounds of heavy rains fell between the 1st and 24th Flash floods occurred in western and central sections of across at least 13 central and southern provinces in China, Singapore on the 5th after a powerful storm brought 124 including the parched River Basin. At least 239 people millimeters (4.88 inches) of rain in just a few hours’ time. Damage died. Nationwide, at least 37 million people were directly was widespread in some areas, with ankle-deep floodwater impacted by the floods, with more than 500,000 homes heights in some locations. Additional floods came in Bukit Timah damaged or destroyed and hundreds of roads, bridges and after a canal burst its banks. railways submerged. The Ministry of Civil Affairs noted that nearly one million hectares (2.47 million acres) of farmland were affected Torrential rains on the 11th and 12th in Tajikistan caused as well. Direct economic losses were listed at CNY42.3 billion widespread flooding and mudslides throughout the northern (USD6.65 billion). province of Sughd. Separate large mudslides impacted the villages of Bobodarhon and Saro, where at least 213 homes were Torrential monsoonal rains battered nine separate provinces in damaged or destroyed. The floods also damaged 11 kilometers the Philippines between the 1st and the 19th, leaving at least 10 (seven miles) of roads, thousands of hectares (acres) of crops, people dead. The province of Maguindanao was most affected, irrigation channels and electricity supply lines. where floodwaters from the swollen Rio Grande de Mindanao River swamped the region. More than 75 percent of the town Tropical Storm Haima developed and brought heavy rains and of Cotabato was underwater. Widespread damage occurred gusty winds to parts of the northern Philippines, southern China to personal and commercial property and the electrical and and central and northern Vietnam between the 19th and the agricultural infrastructures. Economic losses were listed at PHP411 24th. In the Philippines, at least two people died after floods million (USD9.4 million). and landslides affected Luzon. Damage was generally listed as minimal throughout the country. In China, Haima damaged At least 32 people died in China (23) and the Philippines (9) hundreds of homes, farmland and caused total economic losses of after torrential rains from Tropical Storm Sarika brought floods CNY9.4 million (USD1.45 million). As the system reached Vietnam, and landslides the 4th and the 11th. South China’s Guangdong torrential rains spawned flooding that left at least 22 people dead Province was particularly affected, where thousands of homes and 81 more injured. More than 2,600 homes were destroyed. were damaged in addition to wide swaths of crops. According Total damages were listed at VND1 trillion (USD49 million). to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, economic damages were CNY1.6 billion (USD248 million).

58 Impact Forecasting

A moderate earthquake rattled southwest China’s Yunnan Monsoonal rains in India on the 27th and 28th led to the deaths Province on the 20th. According to the United States Geological of at least 31 people. The northern and eastern states of Uttar Survey, the magnitude-5.3 tremor struck at 6:16 PM local time Pradesh, Uttarakhand and West were particularly affected (10:16 UTC) with an epicenter 163 kilometers (101 miles) west- by the heavy rainfall. Local officials reported that at least 25,750 southwest of Dali, China at a depth of 35.2 kilometers (21.9 miles). homes were washed away. The Ministry of Civil Affairs reported that the earthquake caused the majority of the damage in Tengchong County, where at least Torrential monsoonal rains spawned both river and flash flooding 12,094 homes were damaged or destroyed. Total economic across Davao City in the Philippines on the 28th. At least 30 losses were listed at CNY60 million (USD9.2 million). people were killed throughout six villages after the Pangi River overflowed its banks and caused water to reach upwards of Tropical Storm Meari traversed through the and 3 meters (10 feet) in some locations of the city. At least 409 the in the Western Pacific Ocean before making homes were damaged or destroyed in addition to parts of the its sole landfall in Shinujiu, on the 26th. The first transportation infrastructure. areas to feel impacts from Meari came in the Philippines, where at least eight people were killed following torrential rains and flooding. The storm damaged or destroyed at least 1,380 homes and caused PHP564 million (USD13.1 million) in damages to agriculture and infrastructure. In eastern China, the provinces of , Zhejiang and Shandong reported that at least 400 homes were destroyed and more than 33,000 hectares (81,500 acres) of farmland was submerged. Total economic losses were listed at CNY200 million (USD30.9 million). As a weakened Meari made landfall in Korea, the system damaged numerous bridges, roads and farmland. At least nine people were killed in South Korea.

59 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Exhibit 88: Asia July Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

6/1-8/12 Drought China 0 Unknown 923+ million

7/1-7/8 Flooding China 49+ 100,000+ 989+ million

7/9-7/11 Flooding South Korea 9+ 500+ Millions+

7/11-7/14 Flooding China 6+ 5,000+ 54.1+ million

7/18-7/20 TY Ma-on Japan 5+ Hundreds+ 50+ million

7/19 Earthquake Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan 14+ 1,500+ 9.3+ million

7/25-7/27 Flooding China 54+ 150,000+ 632+ million

7/26-7/29 Flooding South Korea, North Korea 100+ 20,000+ 200+ million

7/27-7/30 TY Nock-ten Philippines, China, Vietnam 94+ 340,000+ 126+ million

7/27-7/31 Flooding Japan 3+ 3,000+ Millions+

7/28-8/2 Flooding China 13+ 25,000+ 52.7+ million

7/31 Severe Weather Russia 1+ 250+ 3+ million

A severe drought persisted in southwest China throughout the Three consecutive days of heavy monsoonal rains across South month of July after starting in early June. Government officials Korea between the 9th and the 11th left at least nine people dead reported that the drought had damaged 550,000 hectares (1.35 and several others injured. The country’s National Emergency million acres) of crops and left 2.2 million residents without Management Agency reported that the provinces of South plentiful drinking water. Total economic losses were listed at Gyeongsang, Chungcheong and Jeolla saw flash flooding. In CNY6 billion (USD923 million). Seoul, isolated reports of flooding were prevalent. Damage was reported to hundreds of homes in addition to bridges and In Nepal, persistent rainfall led to widespread flooding and roads being destroyed. The floods also submerged thousands of landslides across most sections of the country. According to the hectares (acres) of farmland and forced the suspension of some National Emergency Operation Center, at least 75 people died train services. and more than 80 others were injured in the flooding. More than 500 homes were destroyed. Heavy rainfall between the 11th and the 14th led to flooding and landslides across eight separate provinces in China. At least Fresh rounds of torrential rainfall between the 1st and the 8th six people were killed and thousands of homes were damaged brought renewed flooding to 20 separate Chinese provincial or destroyed by the inclement weather. Farmland was also regions. At least 49 people were killed and many others were submerged. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, direct injured as the heavy rains prompted flooding and landslides. economic losses were listed at CNY350 million (USD54.1 million). Damage was widespread as more than 100,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in addition to hundreds of schools and Typhoon Ma-on made a brief landfall on Japan’s Shikoku Island on other structures. The transportation infrastructure was seriously the 19th while spreading heavy rains and gusty winds throughout impacted as several state and national highways and bridges much of the country. At least five people were killed and dozens were washed away. Wide swaths of cropland were submerged more were injured. Heavy rains and gusty winds from the cyclone as well. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, direct economic forced airlines and express trains to cancel hundreds of flights losses were listed at CNY6.39 billion (USD989 million). and routes. The storm damaged a centuries-old castle in Kyoto, and submerged agricultural areas. Total economic losses were estimated at JPY3.9 billion (USD50 million).

60 Impact Forecasting

A magnitude-6.1 earthquake struck the southern portions of Typhoon Nock-ten developed and made landfall in the Kyrgyzstan on the 19th. The tremor struck with an epicenter Philippines, China and Vietnam between the 27th and the 30th, 404 kilometers (251 miles) southwest of Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan bringing torrential rains and gusty winds. At least 94 people were at a depth of 16 kilometers (9.9 miles). At least 14 deaths were killed, with most of the casualties coming in the Philippines. Nock- reported near the epicenter, which was near the intersection of ten’s arrival in the Philippines in Province on the 27th the borders of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Government prompted flash floods and landslides. More than 16,974 homes statistics indicated that more than 1,500 homes and buildings were damaged or destroyed in the country, with economic losses were damaged or destroyed throughout the region. Total listed at PHP2.77 billion (USD65.3 million). In southern China’s economic losses were KSG414 million (USD9.3 million). Hainan province, the storm killed at least two people as heavy rains spawned isolated reports of flooding. Direct economic Torrential rains and strong thunderstorms pelted 267 counties losses were listed at CNY377 million (USD58 million). In Vietnam, in 18 separate provincial regions in China between the 25th a weakened Nock-ten made its third and final landfall while and the 27th. At least 54 people were killed and dozens more coming ashore in Thanh Hoa and Nghe An provinces and shifting were injured as flooding, landslides, damaging winds and hail all into Laos and Thailand (USD3 million in damages). At least 23 contributed to the casualties. According to the Ministry of Civil people (20 in Thailand alone) were killed and nearly 315,000 Affairs, at least 150,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in homes were damaged in Thailand. addition to tens of thousands of hectares (acres) of crops being submerged. The transportation infrastructure was also affected Four consecutive days of torrential rainfall in Japan prompted during the event. Direct economic losses were listed at CNY4.01 widespread flooding across central Island between billion (USD632 million). the 27th and the 31st, leaving at least three people dead. The prefectures of Niigata and Fukushima were particularly affected, At least 62 people were killed and dozens more were injured in where the Japanese Meteorological Agency recorded upwards of central sections of South Korea after excessive rains between the 1,186 millimeters (47 inches) of rainfall. More than 3,000 homes 26th and 29th prompted widespread flooding and landslides. were damaged. According to the National Emergency Management Agency, at least 11,000 homes were inundated in addition to thousands Persistent rains fell across China’s Autonomous of additional buildings, schools and vehicles. Severe damage Region and Shaanxi province between the 28th and August 2nd, was also evident to main roads, subway stations, rail lines and prompting flooding that killed at least 13 people. According underground walkways. Total economic losses were estimated to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, more than 25,000 homes were well into the hundreds of millions of dollars (USD). South Korea’s damaged or destroyed during the event in addition to nearly Financial Supervisory Service noted that at least 5,839 auto 75,000 hectares (185,000 acres) of crops being submerged. claims had been filed, with payouts exceeding KRW40.3 billion Combined direct economic losses were listed at CNY1.6 billion (USD38.3 million). (USD52.7 million).

A rare tornado touched down in Russia’s region on the 31st, killing at least one person and injuring 30 more. The twister, which struck the city of Blagoveshchensk, damaged or destroyed at least 250 homes and vehicles. Total economic losses were listed at RUB80 million (USD3 million).

61 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Exhibit 89: Asia August Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

8/8-8/10 TY Muifa China, Philippines, Korea 22+ 20,000+ 658+ million

8/9 Earthquake China 0 22,800+ Millions+

8/12-10/15 Flooding Pakistan 520+ 1.6 million+ 2+ billion

8/13-8/17 Flooding China 10+ Thousands+ 323+ million

8/20-8/29 Flooding India 47+ Thousands+ 275+ million

8/22 Flooding China 0 300+ 9.22+ million

8/27-8/31 TY Nanmadol Philippines, Taiwan, China 37+ 10,000+ 250+ million

Typhoon Muifa made landfall near the China/North Korea Gansu and Qinghai provinces sustaining the worst effects. Direct border on the 8th. Prior to landfall in the Philippines, the cyclone economic losses were listed at CNY2.07 billion (USD323 million). spawned flash floods and landslides throughout several regions on Luzon Island. At least eight people were killed. In Japan’s Okinawa Heavy rains in India’s West Bengal region spawned flooding that prefecture, at least 37 people were injured in flash floods. As the killed at least 47 people across 81 municipalities between the storm brushed eastern China, damage was widespread to more 20th and the 29th. State government officials noted that all of the than 14,300 homes and swaths of agricultural land. According fatalities occurred along the Damodar, Kangsabati and Mayurakshi to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, direct economic losses were listed rivers, which burst their banks and also led to intentional water at CNY4.24 billion (USD658 million). The cyclone also impacted releases to prevent even more catastrophic flooding. Total North and South Korea, where a combined 14 people were killed. economic losses were listed at INR12.7 billion (USD275 million). More than 1,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in addition Excessive rainfall in China’s Hubei Province triggered widespread to thousands of hectares (acres) of crops. flooding and landslides on the 22nd. At least 42,000 people were A magnitude-5.0 struck at 7:50 PM local time (11:50 UTC) on the directly impacted as the floods destroyed 294 homes and more 9th with an epicenter 168 kilometers (104 miles) west-southwest than 15.5 kilometers (9.63 miles) of roads. Direct economic losses of Dali, China in Yunnan Province, China. According to the China were listed at CNY59 million (USD9.22 million). Earthquake Networks Center, at least six people were injured after Typhoon Nanmadol churned through the Northwest Pacific more than 22,800 homes and other infrastructure facilities were Basin and made three separate landfalls in the Philippines, Taiwan damaged throughout the hardest hit areas in Tengchong County. and China between the 27th and the 31st. In the Philippines, Torrential monsoonal rains struck southern sections of Pakistan Nanmadol’s torrential rains and high winds led to widespread from August 12th through the middle of October, leaving at damage across 17 separate provinces on Luzon. At least 35 people least 520 people dead and 756 others injured. According to the were killed. According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction National Disaster Management Authority, the provinces of Sindh, and Management Council, the system affected nearly 3,000 and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were worst affected as more homes and caused extensive damage to the agricultural and than 1.6 million homes were damaged or destroyed and at least transportation infrastructures. Economic losses were estimated at 1.8 million hectares (4.5 million acres) of rice, sugarcane and PHP1.46 billion (USD34.4 million). In Taiwan, the system’s heavy cotton crops were submerged. Total economic losses were listed rains triggered knee-high flooding in many locations as the most at PKR174 billion (USD2 billion). significant impacts came after the floods inundated vast areas of cropland and damaged more than 2,000 homes. A weakened A wave of heavy rains between the 13th and the 17th led to Nanmadol made its final landfall in southeast China, where it the deaths of at least 10 people in China. The Ministry of Civil damaged or destroyed thousands of homes in and Zhejiang Affairs reported that flooding and landslides were recorded in provinces. Direct economic losses were at least CNY440 million 138 counties across 16 provinces during the period, with Hubei, (USD68.9 million).

62 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 90: Asia September Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

9/1-9/22 Flooding China 101+ 250,000+ 4.25+ billion

9/2-9/4 TS Talas Japan 68+ 25,117+ 500+ million

9/5-9/15 Flooding India 42+ 25,000+ 432+ million

9/6 Earthquake Indonesia 10+ 1,000+ 5.85+ million

9/18 Earthquake India, Bhutan, 116+ 140,000+ 1.89+ billion

9/21-9/22 TY Roke Japan 13+ 5,000+ 1.25+ billion

9/23-9/28 Flooding India 51+ 50,000+ 568+ million

9/23-9/25 Flooding Turkey 1+ Hundreds+ Unknown

9/27-9/30 TY Nesat Philippines, China, Vietnam 88+ 65,000+ 1.57+ billion

Consecutive weeks of heavy rain (beginning on September A magnitude-6.6 earthquake rattled Indonesia’s Aceh province 1st) affected nine separate Chinese provincial regions with flash on the 6th, leaving at least 10 people dead. The tremor, which floods, river flooding and landslides during the month. At least struck 100 kilometers (62 miles) southwest of Medan, Indonesia 101 people were killed. According to China’s Ministry of Civil at 12:55 AM local time (17:55 UTC Monday), caused widespread Affairs, hundreds of thousands of homes were damaged or structural damage. Indonesia’s Regional Disaster Mitigation destroyed in addition to nearly 1 million hectares (2.47 million Agency reported that economic losses would reach IDR50 billion acres) of crops submerged. Total economic losses were CNY27.21 (USD5.85 million). billion (USD4.25 billion). A strong earthquake struck northeastern India on the 18th, Tropical Storm Talas made landfall in southern Japan on the leading to the deaths of at least 116 people. At least 500 others 2nd, leaving at least 68 people dead and dozens more missing. were injured as more than 140,000 homes and structures The system brought record rains to multiple prefectures, which were damaged or destroyed. The magnitude-6.9 earthquake spawned flooding and landslides. According to government occurred at 6:10 PM local time (12:40 UTC) with an epicenter 68 officials, widespread damage was prevalent in southern sections kilometers (42 miles) northwest of Gangtok, India at a depth of of the country, particularly Kii Peninsula on Honshu Island. Japan’s 19.7 kilometers (12.2 miles). The Indian state of Sikkim sustained Fire and Disaster Management Agency reported that 25,117 the most substantial impacts, with the most extensive damage structures were damaged by wind or inundated by flash floods coming in a stretch between Gangtok and Chung Thang. In and rivers overflowing their banks. Thousands more vehicles Nepal, government officials reported at least 11 fatalities and 89 were also impacted. Total economic losses were estimated at injuries in addition to major infrastructure damage occurring. In JPY38.5 billion (USD500 million), with the General Insurance China’s Tibet Autonomous Region, at least seven people died and Association of Japan recording at least JPY33.1 (USD430.9 million) 136 others were injured in 17 counties after at least 17,500 homes in insured losses. were damaged or destroyed. In Bhutan, at least one fatality was recorded after the temblor left structural damage. Total economic Monsoonal rains severely impacted India’s eastern state of Orissa costs (including damage and reconstruction) in India were listed between the 5th and the 15th. The rains caused several rivers at INR100 billion (USD1.89 billion). (including the Mahanadi) to burst their banks, leading to at least 42 people being killed. State officials reported that more than 25,000 homes had been damaged, in addition to a significant amount of crop acreage. Additional flood damage was reported in the northern states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Total economic losses were listed at INR21 billion (USD432 million).

63 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Typhoon Roke made landfall in southern portions of Japan on the Heavy rains in Turkey between the 23rd and the 25th led 21st, killing at least 13 people and injuring 308 others. The storm to the death of at least one person. The rains, which were brought torrential rains and gusty winds, leading to downed prevalent in the northern province of Rize (located along the trees, infrastructure damage and rivers overflowing their banks ), prompted flash flooding that damaged hundreds of and inundating nearby structures in 12 prefectures. Official homes and businesses. data noted that 5,000 properties suffered damage from flood inundation and wind damage. Flights and bullet train service was Typhoon Nesat made separate landfalls in the Philippines, China disrupted, in addition to several global companies being forced and Vietnam between the 27th and the 30th, leaving dozens to temporarily suspend plant production. The General Insurance of people dead. In the Philippines, effects were widespread as Association of Japan noted JPY88.5 billion (USD1.15 billion) in government officials noted at least 83 fatalities, 91 injuries and insured losses. Economic losses were slightly higher. more than 53,343 homes damaged or destroyed. Damage was also prevalent throughout , where the city’s financial Monsoonal rains brought renewed flooding to parts of the Indian district was impacted. Economic losses were listed at PHP15 states of Orissa, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh between the 23rd and billion (USD346 million). In China, the storm killed four people, the 28th. In Orissa, at least 42 people died in floods that occurred damaged 12,000 homes and submerged crops on Hainan Island after several rivers overflowed their banks and submerged at and other southern provinces. Total economic losses were listed least 3,569 villages. More than 46,936 homes were destroyed at CNY7.9 billion (USD1.24 billion). In Vietnam, one person by the floods in addition to 220,000 hectares (544,000 acres) of was killed and more than 1,000 homes and wide swaths of cropland. At least 13 additional fatalities were recorded in Bihar. crops were destroyed. Total losses were listed at VND50 billion Total economic losses in the region were listed at a combined (USD2.4 million). INR28 billion (USD568 million).

64 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 91: Asia October Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

6/29-10/31 Flooding Laos 34+ 140,000+ 174+ million

7/25-11/30 Flooding Thailand 790+ 4+ million 45+ billion

9/10-10/31 Flooding Cambodia 250+ 250,000+ 521+ million

9/10-11/15 Flooding Vietnam 100+ 175,000+ 135+ million

9/30-10/6 STY Nalgae Philippines, China, Vietnam 13+ 20,000+ Millions+

10/8-10/11 Flooding Turkey 7+ 500+ Unknown

10/11-10/12 TS Banyan Philippines 10+ Hundreds+ Unknown

10/13 Earthquake Indonesia 0 Hundreds+ Unknown

10/19-10/21 TS 02B Myanmar 215+ 8,000+ 1.7+ million

Laos sustained several months of extensive flooding as high million people were impacted in 19 separate cities and provinces water levels in the Mekong River Delta occurred in response across the country. At least 250,000 homes, schools and religious to an active monsoon season and the arrival of several tropical sanctuaries were damaged or destroyed, in addition to more cyclones. The floods, which began in June, left at least 34 than 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles) of roads. The agricultural people dead and upwards of 140,000 homes destroyed. More infrastructure saw at least 400,000 hectares (988,000 acres) of than 64,400 hectares (160,000 acres) of rice paddy fields were rice paddy fields submerged as well. Total economic losses were submerged. Total economic losses were estimated at LAK1.4 estimated at KHR660 billion (USD161 million). trillion (USD174 million). In Vietnam, several months of severe flooding in the Mekong The worst flooding in decades affected Thailand between late River Delta caused the deaths of at least 100 people. The Central July and the end of November, as the death toll reached at Committee for Storm and Flood Control reported that more than least 790. In total, more than 13.4 million people were affected 175,000 homes were destroyed and 99,000 hectares (245,000 in at least 65 of Thailand’s 77 provinces. Substantial damage acres) of rice and other crops were submerged. At least 1,455 was reported to personal and commercial property, with kilometers (904 miles) of dykes and 1,300 kilometers (808 miles) approximately four million homes and thousands of additional of roads were damaged as well. Total economic losses were businesses sustaining various levels of flood inundation. estimated at VND2.85 trillion (USD135 million). The hardest-hit industries were to electrical appliances and equipment, medical equipment, automobiles and food and Super Typhoon Nalgae made multiple landfalls in the Philippines, beverage manufacturers. The agricultural infrastructure was also China and Vietnam between September 30th and October 6th, impacted with more than 1.92 million hectares (4.74 million acres) leading to at least 13 fatalities. In the Philippines, the typhoon of land having been damaged. According to the World Bank, total brought torrential rainfall and extremely gusty winds throughout economic losses were THB1.41 trillion (USD45 billion) – including Luzon Island. According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction THB661 billion (USD21.11 billion) in property damages and and Management Council, Nalgae damaged or destroyed at least THB689 billion (USD22 billion) in lost productivity. The Office of 18,241 homes in addition to vast agricultural areas. Economic Insurance Commission (OIC) released an insured loss projection losses were listed at PHP115 million (USD2.6 million). In China, of THB337 billion (USD10.78 billion). the Ministry of Civil Affairs noted that heavy rains led to renewed flooding in multiple southern provinces. The final landfall in The Cambodian government reported multiple months of severe Vietnam saw a weakened Nalgae losing most of its wind speeds, flooding as flash floods and inundation along the Mekong River though heavy rains brought fresh flooding to central and leading to the deaths of at least 250 people. More than 1.2 southern sections of the country.

65 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Persistent heavy rains and gusty winds in Turkey between the 8th A magnitude-6.1 earthquake rattled parts of Indonesia on the and the 11th led to the deaths of at least seven people. Western 13th, injuring dozens of people and causing widespread damage. and southern sections of the country in the Mediterranean and The tremor struck at 11:16 AM (3:16 UTC) with an epicenter Aegean regions were particularly affected, where the inclement 100 kilometers (62 miles) southwest of Denpasar, Indonesia. weather left serious damage to hundreds of homes and wide According to reports from the region, the tremor damaged a swaths of agricultural land. The transportation infrastructure significant number of structures though the damage was not was also impacted as numerous roads and bridges were either severe. Ceilings reportedly collapsed at multiple schools, hotels submerged or washed away. and at ancient Hindu temples, while homes and other structures saw various levels of façade damage or cracking as well. Tropical Storm Banyan came ashore across central and southern sections of the Philippines on the 11th and 12th, leaving at least Tropical Cyclone 02B came ashore in Bangladesh on the 19th, 10 people dead. According to the Philippines’ National Disaster though its remnants led to extensive flooding across Myanmar. Risk Reduction and Management Council, Banyan dumped At least 215 people were killed as flash floods and river flooding excessive rainfall that led to flash flooding and swollen rivers. in central and southern sections of the country damaged or Property damage was listed as minimal, though several main destroyed more than 8,000 homes. The transportation and highways were closed due to flood damage. agricultural infrastructures were also impacted. Total economic losses were listed at MMK11 million (USD1.7 million).

Exhibit 92: Asia November Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

11/1 Earthquake China 0 63,600+ 56.4+ million

11/23-11/28 Flooding Vietnam 3+ 9,500+ Unknown

11/26 -11/27 Flooding Sri Lanka 22+ 7,137+ Millions+

A magnitude-5.4 earthquake struck the northwestern province Heavy rains and high winds impacted southern sections of Sri of Xinjiang in China at 8:21 AM local time (00:21 UTC) on the Lanka on the 26th and 27th, killing at least 22 people and injuring 1st, with an epicenter 27.9 kilometers (17.3 miles) east-southeast 41 others. The storm system particularly affected the coastal of the city of Yining. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, areas of Galle and Matara, where more than 7,137 homes were the tremor damaged or destroyed at least 63,600 homes and damaged or destroyed by flooding and gale-force winds. caused CNY358 million (USD56.4 million) in economic losses. No fatalities were recorded.

Five consecutive days of heavy rains between the 23rd and the 28th led to three fatalities in central Vietnam. According to the Flood and Storm Control Center, flooding affected multiple provinces (including Quang Ngai and Binh Dinh) that destroyed more than 9,500 homes. The transportation infrastructure was also impacted.

66 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 93: Asia December Events

Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 # Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Claims2,3 (USD)

12/2 Earthquake China 0 2,256+ Unknown

12/3-12/5 Flooding Indonesia 5+ 250+ Unknown

12/16-12/17 TS Washi Philippines 1,257+ 48,499+ 31.7+ million

12/17-12/19 Winter Weather India 26+ Unknown Unknown

12/18 Flooding Indonesia 11+ 672+ Unknown

12/21-12/24 Flooding Sri Lanka 1+ 7,50 0+ Unknown

12/29-12/30 CY Thane India 48+ 200,000+ 377+ million

A magnitude-5.3 earthquake rattled China’s Xinjiang Province At least 26 people were killed across northern India between the on the 2nd, causing widespread damage. The tremor struck at 17th and the 19th after cold temperatures affected the state of 8:48 PM local time (12:48 UTC) with an epicenter 32 kilometers Uttar Pradesh. In addition to the fatalities, the cold weather led to (19 miles) west-southwest of the city of Shache. The Ministry of air and rail service disruptions. Civil Affairs reported that at least 2,256 homes were damaged or destroyed. A torrential rainstorm on the 18th in the Indonesian province of Central Java triggered flash flooding and landslides – killing at Heavy rains between the 3rd and the 5th spawned flash floods least 11 people. The town of Wonosobo sustained the majority of across Indonesia’s Central Sulawesi Province, killing at least the damage, where 627 households were impacted. five people. According to officials from the National Agency of Disaster Management, the floods were most prevalent in Multiple days of heavy rains in Sri Lanka between the 21st and the Bolapapu village where all of the fatalities occurred and more 24th prompted flooding in northern, eastern and central sections than 250 homes, schools and other buildings were damaged of the country. At least one person was killed after the floods or destroyed. damaged or destroyed at least 7,500 homes.

Torrential rains from prompted flash floods Cyclone Thane made landfall in southern India’s Tamil Nadu and river flooding across central and southern sections of the state on the 29th and 30th, bringing torrential rains and gusty Philippines on the 16th and 17th, killing at least 1,257 people winds. At least 48 people were killed after the Category 1 storm and injuring 4,663 more. The two cities which saw the most left widespread damage to more than 200,000 homes and fatalities were de Oro and in the Mindanao structures. The transportation and electrical infrastructures were region after 200 millimeters (7.879 inches) of rain fell during a also severely impacted. Local government officials reported 12-hour period. Washi’s impacts included significant damage economic losses in excess of INR20 billion (USD377 million). to homes, vehicles, churches, businesses, other structures and the transportation and electrical infrastructures. Outside of Mindanao, the Visayas region saw substantial damage and fatalities as well. According to the NDRRMC, more than 8,499 homes were damaged or destroyed and total economic losses were listed at PHP1.39 billion (USD31.7 million).

67 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific Islands)

• Earthquakes devastate New Zealand’s greater Christchurch metropolitan region

• Historic flooding causes upwards of USD30 billion in economic damage in Australia’s Queensland

• Cyclone Yasi becomes second costliest tropical system in Australian history

Exhibit 94: Oceania January Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

12/21-1/14 Flooding Australia (Queensland) 36+ 58,463+ 30+ billion

1/13-1/18 Flooding Australia () 1+ 7,952+ 150+ million

1/23-1/24 Flooding New Zealand 0 500+ 11.4+ million

1/25-1/29 CY Wilma Tonga, New Zealand 3+ 1,000+ 22+ million

Persistent waves of heavy rains brought several weeks of Rounds of heavy rain inundated parts of New Zealand’s Mid- major flooding across eastern Australia throughout the month Upper North Island on the 23rd and 24th, causing widespread of January (after beginning in December 2010). At least 36 flood damage throughout the region. and the Bay people died and dozens more were injured in what became of Plenty were particularly affected, along with North Shore, in economic terms, the costliest natural disaster in Australian Eastern Suburbs and Maraetai after roads were submerged and history. The most affected areas were Queensland, Victoria hundreds of homes were inundated. Total economic losses and Wales, though Queensland bore the majority were estimated at NZD15 million (USD11.4 million), while of the damage. More than 2.1 million people were affected by the Insurance Council of New Zealand listed insured losses at the floods, which were caused by dozens of major rivers and NZD6.6 million (USD5 million). tributaries overflowing their banks and flash flooding. Hundreds of cities, towns and villages were affected, including Brisbane. Tropical Cyclone Wilma swept across parts of Oceania between Extensive damage occurred to property, the transportation the 25th and the 29th, leaving at least three people dead. infrastructure, the coal mining industry, agriculture and other According to local governments and International Red Cross notable industries and businesses. Total economic losses were agencies, Wilma caused considerable damage on the islands listed at AUD30 billion (USD29.6 billion). The Insurance Council of American and four islands in the Ha’apai Island group of Australia declared four separate catastrophes (three in on the 25th and 26th. Hundreds of homes and structures Queensland) during the floods, with more than 58,463 claims were affected by the combination of high winds and flooding being filed in Queensland (including Brisbane, Lockyer Valley that coincided with a high . The cyclone also caused and Toowoomba) with an estimated value of AUD2.4 billion significant damage to the islands’ root crops, fruit trees and the (USD2.42billion). For Victoria, the ICA reported 7,952 claims transportation infrastructure. A weakened Wilma quickly raced with payouts totaling AUD122 million (USD123 million). by New Zealand’s North Island on the 28th and 29th while bringing record rains, flooding and landslides to the region. Damage to the transportation infrastructure and sewage plants was reported. Total economic losses in New Zealand were listed in excess of NZD25 million (USD19 million), while damages in Tonga were USD3 million. The Insurance Council of New Zealand reported NZD19.8 million (USD15.9 million) in insured losses.

68 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 95: Oceania February Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

2/3 STC Yasi Australia 1+ 72,203+ 3+ billion

2/4-2/6 Severe Weather Australia 0 49,396+ 425+ million

2/5-2/6 Bushfire Australia 0 410+ 50+ million

2/16-2/22 STC Carlos Australia 0 4,000+ 15+ million

2/22 Earthquake New Zealand 182+ 156,473+ See text below

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi made landfall near Mission Beach in occurred to the electrical network within the fire perimeter. The Queensland, Australia just after midnight on the 3rd, bringing Insurance Council of Australia reported total payouts at AUD35 extremely gusty winds, storm surge (including a 5-meter million (USD34 million). Economic losses were slightly higher. (16-feet) reading at Cardwell) and torrential rains. The storm damaged hundreds of homes close to the coastline in parts Severe Tropical Cyclone Carlos slowly meandered across the of Hinchinbrook Channel, Cardell, Tully Heads and Mission of Australia’s Northern Territory before later tracking Beach. The Queensland State Emergency Service reported along the Western Australian coastline between the 16th and more than 4,000 damage incidents in the days following the 22nd. The cyclone triggered heavy rainfall and periods landfall. Infrastructure was significantly affected, including the of gusty winds. Damage reports indicated that homes and agricultural and transportation industry. An estimated 90 percent businesses were inundated by floodwaters and several main of Australia’s banana crop was destroyed and hundreds of roads were submerged. At least 3,700 calls were received by the hectares (acres) of sugar were also inundated. The Australian State Emergency Service. The Northern Territory Chamber of government noted total economic losses at AUD3 billion Commerce reported that Carlos cost businesses at least AUD15 (USD2.98 billion). The Insurance Council of Australia reported million (USD15.3 million); while the Territory Insurance Office at least 72,203 claims being filed, with total payouts listed at reported having received nearly 1,000 claims with losses topping AUD1.33 billion (USD1.34 billion). AUD4.5 million (USD4.6 million). In Western Australia, Carlos affected major iron-ore projects in the region and also Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms inundated parts of Victoria spawned a tornado in Karratha that damaged at least 40 homes. in Australia between the 4th and the 6th, causing widespread damage to homes, businesses and other property. The most A magnitude-6.3 earthquake struck New Zealand’s significant effects occurred in and its surrounding on the 22nd, causing significant widespread damage, fatalities suburbs. The Insurance Council of Australia reported at least and injuries. At least 182 people were killed and more than 49,396 claims having been filed, with total payouts of AUD412.3 2,000 others were injured. The tremor occurred at 12:51 PM million (USD416 million). Economic losses were estimated at over on the 22nd (23:51 UTC on the 21st) with an epicenter near the AUD422 million (USD425 million). suburb of Lyttleton in Christchurch, New Zealand at a shallow depth of 5 kilometers (3.1 miles). Extensive damage occurred A bushfire damaged or destroyed suburban homes around the throughout Christchurch as buildings collapsed into roads, greater Perth metropolitan area on the 5th and 6th. No fatalities parked cars were buried under rubble, water, sewer and gas lines were reported, though one firefighter was injured. The bushfire were ruptured, streets and sidewalks split, bridges collapsed began at approximately 11:45 AM local time (3:45 UTC) on the and several buildings were affected by fires in the city. More 5th by sparks from an angle grinder igniting dry grass at a time than 1,000 central city commercial buildings and 10,000 homes of extremely high winds. The fire charred at least 440 hectares were destroyed. The New Zealand Earthquake Commission (1,087 acres). The Perth Hills communities of Roleystone, reported having received at least 156,522 claims. Insured losses Kelmscott and Red Hill were declared disaster zones after were estimated at NZD18 billion (USD13.5 billion). According sustaining the majority of the damage with 71 homes destroyed to the New Zealand government, the total combined economic and 39 more sustaining various degrees of damage. During post- impact from the September 2010, February 2011 and June 2011 event assessments, it was noted that significant damage had earthquakes was at least NZD40.5 billion (USD30 billion).

69 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

March

There were no significant natural disaster events in Oceania during the month of March.

Exhibit 96: Oceania April Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

4/26-4/27 Flooding New Zealand 0 Hundreds+ 8.3+ million

Heavy rain across parts of New Zealand caused widespread losses were listed at NZD6.4 million (USD5.3 million). Total property damage in the Hawkes Bay region on the 26th and 27th. economic losses were approximately NZD10 million (USD8.3 According to the New Zealand Insurance Council, total insured million).

May

There were no significant natural disaster events in Oceania during the month of May.

Exhibit 97: Oceania June Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

6/13 Earthquake New Zealand 1+ 54,247+ See text below

The greater Christchurch, New Zealand region was struck by north-northeast of Christchurch at a depth of nine kilometers two aftershocks on the 13th, leaving at least one person dead, (5.6 miles). Damage was reported throughout Christchurch 46 more injured and causing widespread damage. According and its eastern suburbs due to the shaking itself and also from to the United States Geological Survey, the first tremor (a liquefaction and rockslides. The New Zealand Earthquake magnitude-5.2) struck at 1:00 PM local time (01:00 UTC) with Commission received at least 54,247 claims with payouts beyond an epicenter nine kilometers (five miles) east-southeast of NZD2.4 billion (USD1.8 billion). According to the New Zealand Christchurch at a depth of 11 kilometers (6.8 miles). The second, government, the total combined economic impact from the and stronger, temblor (a magnitude-6.0) struck approximately September 2010, February 2011 and June 2011 earthquakes was 80 minutes later with an epicenter 13 kilometers (eight miles) at least NZD40.5 billion (USD30 billion).

July, August, September and October

There were no significant natural disaster events in Oceania during the months of July, August, September or October.

70 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 98: Oceania November Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

11/9 Severe Weather Australia (Victoria) 0 1,200+ Millions+

11/22-11/30 Flooding Australia () 2+ 1,034+ 20+ million

11/23-11/24 Bushfire Australia (Western Australia) 0 392+ 52.7+ million

A strong frontal boundary passed through the Australian state 1,034 damage reports were received in areas including Wee of Victoria on the 9th, triggering golf ball-sized hail, gusty Waa, Moree, Garah, Bingara and Wagga Wagga after the Mehi winds and flooding rains. Widespread damage was reported and Namoi rivers burst their banks. At least two fatalities were across the greater Melbourne metropolitan area, though no recorded. Total damages in Moree alone were listed in excess of injuries or fatalities were recorded. According to the Victoria AUD20 million (USD20 million). State Emergency Service, more than 1,200 calls for help were recorded. In Melbourne, at least 340 calls were received for A bushfire destroyed dozens of homes and structures in Western flood and wind damage; while another 200 were recorded in Australia on the 23rd and 24th. The fire was spawned after a Frankston. The suburbs of Brimbank, Doncaster and Narre Warren prescribed burn spread out of control in the Margaret River region. also sustained damage as well. According to the Department of Environment and Conservation, 32 homes, nine holiday chalets and four sheds were destroyed in Consecutive days of heavy rainfall impacted the Australia’s New the fire, while 16 houses and a shop were damaged at Prevelly, South Wales, spawning both flash floods and river flooding Gnarabup and Redgate. The Insurance Council of Australia in several communities between the 22nd and the 30th. declared the event a catastrophe after receiving 392 claims with According to the NSW State Emergency Service, more than payouts listed at AUD52.3 million (USD52.7 million).

Exhibit 99: Oceania December Events

# Of Structures/ Damage Estimates2,4 Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 Claims2,3 (USD)

12/23 Earthquakes New Zealand 0 Unknown Unknown

12/25 Severe Weather Australia (Victoria) 0 48,000+ 256+ million

A trio of moderate earthquakes rattled the greater Christchurch Strong thunderstorms crossed the Australian state of Victoria region in New Zealand on the 23rd, triggering additional damage on the 25th, spawning golf ball-sized hail, damaging winds, caused by ground shaking and also liquefaction. At least 60 minor torrential rains and flooding. No serious injuries or fatalities were injuries were recorded. The first moderate earthquake to strike recorded, though damage was evident in the greater Melbourne on Friday was a magnitude-5.8 that occurred at 1:58 PM local metropolitan region. The Victoria State Emergency Service time (0:58 UTC) with an epicenter 26 kilometers (16 miles) east- reported having received nearly 4,000 calls for help. Besides the northeast from Christchurch at a shallow depth of 4.7 kilometers city of Melbourne itself, areas to the north and west of the city (2.9 miles). Less than ten minutes later, an even shallower (including Taylors Lakes, Brimbank, Greensborough, Bundoora, magnitude-5.3 temblor struck the same region. The third strong Eltham, Broadmeadows and Keilor) sustained the brunt of the earthquake became the most powerful jolt (a magnitude-5.9), damage. The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) declared the which occurred at 3:18 PM local time (2:18 UTC) with an epicenter event a catastrophe, after more than 48,000 claims had been filed. 15 kilometers (9 miles) east-northeast of Christchurch at a depth Total insured losses were estimated at more than AUD250 million of 4.9 kilometers (3 miles). According to reports, the earthquakes (USD256 million). caused additional damage throughout Christchurch and its suburbs though the scope of the damage was largely minimal.

71 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Appendix A: Tropical System Frequency Correlations The following shows how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects tropical system production in tropical basins using historical National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center data.

Atlantic Ocean Basin (ENSO)

Exhibit 100: 25-Year Atlantic Hurricane Frequency By ENSO Phase

10 Cool (La Niña) Neutral Warm (El Niño) 8 25-Year Average

6

4 Hurricanes Per Year

2

0 Hurricane Frequency Category 3+ Hurricane Frequency Landfalling Hurricane Frequency

During El Niño Phases

• Overall hurricane frequency is below average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) hurricane frequency is below average

• Landfalling hurricane frequency is below average

During La Niña Phases

• Overall hurricane frequency is above average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) hurricane frequency is above average

• Landfalling hurricane frequency is above average

During Neutral Phases

• Overall hurricane frequency is slightly above average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) hurricane frequency is near average

• Landfalling hurricane frequency is near average

72 Impact Forecasting

Eastern Pacific Ocean Basin (ENSO)

Exhibit 101: 25-Year Eastern Pacific Hurricane Frequency By ENSO Phase

10 Cool (La Niña) Neutral Warm (El Niño) 8 25-Year Average

6

4 Hurricanes Per Year

2

0 Hurricane Frequency Category 3+ Hurricane Frequency Landfalling Hurricane Frequency

During El Niño Phases

• Overall hurricane frequency is slightly above average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) hurricane frequency is above average

• Landfalling hurricane frequency is slightly below average

During La Niña Phases

• Overall hurricane frequency is below average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) hurricane frequency is below average

• Landfalling hurricane frequency is below average

During Neutral Phases

• Overall hurricane frequency is above average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of 111 mph (179 kph) or greater) hurricane frequency is slightly above average

• Landfalling hurricane frequency is above average

73 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Western Pacific Ocean Basin (ENSO)

Exhibit 102: 25-Year Western Pacific Typhoon Frequency By ENSO Phase

20 Cool (La Niña) Neutral Warm (El Niño) 25-Year Average 15

10 Typhoons Per Year Typhoons

5

0 Hurricane Frequency Category 3+ Hurricane Frequency Landfalling Hurricane Frequency

During El Niño Phases

• Overall typhoon frequency is above average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) typhoon frequency is above average

• Landfalling typhoon frequency is near average

During La Niña Phases

• Overall typhoon frequency is below average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) typhoon frequency is below average

• Landfalling typhoon frequency is below average

During Neutral Phases

• Overall typhoon frequency is above average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) typhoon frequency is slightly above average

• Landfalling typhoon frequency is above average

74 Impact Forecasting

Southern Hemisphere (ENSO)

Exhibit 103: 25-Year Southern Hemisphere Cyclone Frequency By ENSO Phase

20 Cool (La Niña) Neutral Warm (El Niño) 25-Year Average 15

10 Cyclones Per Year

5

0 Hurricane Frequency Category 3+ Hurricane Frequency Landfalling Hurricane Frequency

During El Niño Phases

• Overall cyclone frequency is slightly below average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) cyclone frequency is near average

• Landfalling cyclone frequency is below average

During La Niña Phases

• Overall cyclone frequency is near average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) cyclone frequency is near average

• Landfalling cyclone frequency is slightly above average

During Neutral Phases

• Overall cyclone frequency is slightly above average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) cyclone frequency is near average

• Landfalling cyclone frequency is slightly above average

75 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Appendix B: Historic Global Natural Disaster Events

The following tables provide a glimpse at historical global natural disaster data for events from 1980 to 2011.

Please note that the provided loss figures are the actual losses at the time of occurrence and have not been adjusted for inflation.

Exhibit 104: Top 10 Economic Loss Events (1980-2011)

Economic Loss Insured Loss Date Event Country/Region (USD Millions) (USD Millions) Fatalities

Mar. 11, 2011 EQ/Tsunami Japan 210,000 35,000 15,844

Aug. 25-30, 2005 Hurricane Katrina United States 125,000 66,900 1,833

Jan. 17, 1995 Earthquake Japan 102,500 3,075 6,434

May 12, 2008 Earthquake China 85,000 425 87,000

Jul-Nov. 2011 Flooding Thailand 45,000 10,789 790

Jan. 17, 1994 Earthquake United States 41,800 15,300 57

Sep. 6-14, 2008 Hurricane Ike U.S.; Caribbean Islands 37,60 0 15,000 195

May-Sep. 1998 Floods China 32,000 1,000 3,656

Feb. 27, 2010 EQ/Tsunami Chile 30,000 8,500 525

Dec. 2010 - Jan. 2011 Floods Australia (Queensland) 30,000 2,420 36

Sources: Impact Forecasting, Insurance Information Institute, National Hurricane Center, National Climatic Data Center, USGS

Exhibit 105: Top 10 Insured Loss Events (1980-2011)

Economic Loss Insured Loss Date Event Country/Region (USD Millions) (USD Millions) Fatalities

Aug. 25-30,2005 Hurricane Katrina United States 125,000 66,900 1,833

Mar. 11, 2011 EQ/Tsunami Japan 210,000 35,000 15,844

Aug. 23-27, 1992 Hurricane Andrew United States 26,750 17,000 60

Sep. 6-14, 2008 Hurricane Ike United States; Caribbean 37,60 0 15,000 195

Jan. 17, 1994 Earthquake United States 41,800 15,300 57

Sep. 7-21, 2004 Hurricane Ivan U.S.; Caribbean 18,800 13,800 130

Feb. 22, 2011 Earthquake New Zealand *30,000 13,500 182

Oct. 19-24, 2005 Hurricane Wilma U.S.; Mexico; Bahamas; Caribbean 21,000 12,500 40

July-Nov. 2011 Flooding Thailand 45,000 10,789 790

Sep. 20-24, 2005 United States 12,037 10,200 10

*The New Zealand gov’t has only released a combined USD30 billion economic loss total for the Sept. 2010, Feb. 2011 and June 2011 EQ events Sources: Impact Forecasting, Insurance Information Institute, National Hurricane Center, National Climatic Data Center, USGS

76 Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 106: Top 10 Fatality Events (1980-2011)

Economic Loss Insured Loss Date Event Country/Region (USD Millions) (USD Millions) Fatalities

Jan. 12, 2010 Earthquake Haiti 8,000 200 230,000

Dec. 26, 2004 EQ/Tsunami Southeast Asia 15,000 2,000 227,898

Apr. 29-30, 1991 Tropical Cyclone Bangladesh 1,700 100 138,866

May 2-5, 2008 Cyclone Nargis Myanmar 10,000 N/A 138,366

Oct. 8, 2005 Earthquake Pakistan; India; Afghanistan 5,200 5 88,000

May 12, 2008 Earthquake China 85,000 425 87,000

Jul.-Aug. 2003 Heat Wave Western and 13,800 20 70,000

Jul.-Sep. 2010 Heat Wave Russia 15,000 20 56,000

Jun. 6, 1990 Earthquake Iran 7,10 0 100 40,000

Dec. 8-19, 1999 Floods Venezuela; Colombia 3,200 220 30,000

Sources: Impact Forecasting, Insurance Information Institute, National Hurricane Center, National Climatic Data Center, USGS

1 TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone 2 As reported by public news media sources and government agencies 3 Structures defined as any building — including barns, outbuildings, mobile homes, single or multiple family dwellings, and commercial facilities — that is damaged or destroyed by winds, earthquakes, hail, flood, tornadoes, hurricanes or any other natural-occurring phenomenon. Claims defined as the number of claims (which could be a combination of homeowners, commercial, auto and others) reported by various insurance companies through press releases or various public media outlets.

4 Damage estimates obtained from various public media sources, including news websites, publications from insurance companies and financial institution press releases. These estimates can include insured or economic losses except for the United States (insured losses only).

77 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

Contact Information

Bryon Ehrhart Stephen Mildenhall Chairman of Aon Benfield Analytics Chief Executive Officer Chairman of Aon Benfield Securities Aon Benfield Analytics +1 312 381 5350 +1 312 381 5880 [email protected] [email protected]

Kevin Campion Steve Jakubowski Chief Operating Officer President Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting LLC +1 952 886 8090 +1 312 381 5890 [email protected] [email protected]

Adam Podlaha Steve Bowen Head of International Sr. Scientist/Meteorologist Impact Forecasting LLC Impact Forecasting LLC + 44 (0)20 7522 3820 +1 312.381.5883 [email protected] [email protected]

This report use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® LLC summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® LLC and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at www.impactforecasting.com.

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78 About Impact Forecasting Impact Forecasting LLC is a catastrophe model development center of excellence within Aon Benfield whose seismologists, meteorologists, hydrologists, engineers, mathematicians, GIS experts, finance, risk management and insurance professionals analyze the financial implications of natural and man-made catastrophes around the world. Impact Forecasting’s experts develop software tools and models that help clients understand underlying risks from hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, wildfires and terrorist attacks on property, casualty and crop insurers and reinsurers. Impact Forecasting is the only catastrophe model development firm integrated into a reinsurance intermediary. To find out more about Impact Forecasting® LLC, visit www.impactforecasting.com.

About Aon Benfield Aon Benfield, a division of Aon Corporation (NYSE: AON), is the world’s leading reinsurance intermediary and full-service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world’s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals’ expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com.

© Impact Forecasting® LLC. No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® LLC has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® LLC does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. ©Aon Corporation. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting® is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon Corporation. Impact Forecasting 200 E. Randolph Street Chicago, Illinois 60601 t +1.312.381.5300 f +1.312.381.0160 impactforecasting.com

© Impact Forecasting LLC, 2011. All rights reserved. This document is intended for general information purposes only and should not be construed as advice or opinions on any specific facts or circumstances. The comments in this summary are based upon Aon Benfield’s preliminary analysis of publicly available information. The content of this document is made available on an “as is” basis, without warranty of any kind. Aon Benfield disclaims any legal liability to any person or organization for loss or damage caused by or resulting from any reliance placed on that content. Aon Benfield reserves all rights to the content of this document. #8042 - 12/2011