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VARIABILITY, CHANGE, IMPACTS, AND VULNERABILITY
Edited by:
Keith T. Ingram
Kirstin Dow
Lynne Carter
Julie Anderson
Climate of the Southeast United States
Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability © 2013 Southeast Climate Consortium All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. Reproduction of this report by electronic means for personal and noncommercial purposes ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱǯ
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Keywords:ȱȬĴȬȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱ climate impacts, climate modeling, climate variability, coastal, drought, education, electric ȱǰȱ¡ȱ ǰȱĚǰȱȱǰȱ£ǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱǰȱȬȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱęǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȬ ȱ intrusion, sea level rise, silviculture, social vulnerability, Southeast, storm surge, tropical ǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǰȱȬȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ ǰȱ ę
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This report is published as one of a series of technical inputs to the Third National ȱȱǻǼȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ and Congress every four years on the status of climate change science and impacts. The NCA informs the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future. The NCA report process integrates ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȂȱǯ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȬȱ£- ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ input reports highlighting past climate trends, projected climate change, and impacts ȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ing this technical input. The lead authors for related chapters in the Third NCA report, ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱDZ
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Climate of the Southeast United States
Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability
EDITORS
Keith T. Ingram (University of Florida)
Kirstin Dow (University of South Carolina)
Lynne Carter (Louisiana State University)
Julie Anderson (Louisiana State University)
EDITORIAL ASSISTANCE
Eleanor K. Sommer (Gainesville, Florida)
ȱȩȱȱȩȱ
Acknowledgements
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Editor's Note: Access to color maps and graphs for this document are avail- ȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱDZȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ Disclaimer: ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǯ
ix
Contents
Acknowledgements ix
CHAPTER 1 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1.1 Diversity and Vulnerabilities 3 1.2 Time-scales of Interest to Southeast Decision Makers 5 1.3 Future Scenarios 5 1.4 Process for Developing this Book 6 1.5 Report Organization 7 1.6 References 7
CHAPTER 2 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST USA: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE 8 2.1 General Description 9 2.2 Extreme Events 14 2.3 Trends 18 2.4 Future Projections 26 2.5 References 36
CHAPTER 3 HUMAN HEALTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 43 3.1 Climate Change and Human Health 44 3.2 Heat and Cold 45 3.3 Air Quality Effects on Respiratory and Airway Diseases 46 3.4 Storms, Extreme Weather, and Sea Level Rise 47 3.5 Harmful Algal Blooms and Marine Toxins 48 3.6 Vector-borne and Zoonotic Disease 51 3.7 Water Quality and Quantity 52 3.8 Human Migration and Displacement and Healthcare Disruption 54 3.9 References 55 CHAPTER 4 ENERGY PRODUCTION, USE, AND VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 62 4.1 Status and Outlook for Energy Production and Use in the Southeast 63 4.2 Impact of Climate Change on Energy Supply and Demand in the Southeast 74 4.3 Key Issues and Uncertainties 81 4.4 References 82 CHAPTER 5 CLIMATE INTERACTIONS WITH THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 86 5.1 Background 87 5.2 Air Quality 89 5.3 The Urban Heat Island Effect 90 5.4 Effects on Precipitation 92 5.5 Effects on the Wild Land-Urban Interface (WUI) 96 5.6 Vulnerability and Risks to Tourism 97 5.7 Impacts on Energy, Poverty, and Socioeconomic Vulnerability 99 5.8 Impacts on National Security 101 5.9 Impacts on Urban Migration 101 5.10 Impacts on Coastal Environments 102 5.11 Summary of Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment 102 5.12 References 103
CHAPTER 6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND TRANSPORTATION IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 109 6.1 Evaluation of Southeast Transportation Systems 110 6.2 Climate Change and Transportation Infrastructure 111 6.3 Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation Systems 112 6.4 Conclusions 124 6.5 References 126
CHAPTER 7 AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 128 7.1 Agriculture in the Southeast USA 130 7.2 Climate Sensitivities and Vulnerabilities 133 7.3 Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in the Southeast USA 143 7.4 Assessment and Research Needs 151 7.5 References 155 CHAPTER 8 FORESTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 165 8.1 Historical Perspective 166 8.2 Southeastern Forest Types 167 8.3 Changes in Forest Type Across the South 172 8.4 Current and Projected Forest Stresses 173 8.5 Ecosystem Services 177 8.6 Adaptation and Mitigation Options 180 8.7 Conclusions 183 8.8 References 183 CHAPTER 9 EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 190 9.1 Background 191 9.2 Climate Change Effects 193 9.3 Complicating Factors 200 9.4 Adaptation and Mitigation 201 9.5 Research Needs 203 9.6 References 204
CHAPTER 10 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 210 10.1 Water Resources in the Southeast 212 10.2 Key Constraints to Water Resources in the Southeast 212 10.3 Historical Climate Trends 215 10.4 Uncertainty in Predicting Future Climate and Hydrologic Impacts 215 10.5 Water Resources Impacts of Climate Change 216 10.6 Mitigation and Adaptation Options 229 10.7 References 230
CHAPTER 11 THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS OF THE SOUTHEAST USA 237 11.1 Background 240 11.2 Southeastern Freshwater Aquatic Ecosystems 240 11.3 Southeastern Savannas 244 11.4 Southeastern Freshwater Marshes and Swamps 246 11.5 Southeastern Tidal Marshes and Swamps 250 11.6 Coral Reefs of the Southeast USA 254 11.7 Summary 257 11.8 References 259
CHAPTER 12 MITIGATION OF GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 271 12.1 Definitions 272 12.2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks in the Southeast 273 12.3 GHG Emission Reduction Activities 278 12.4 Research Needs and Uncertainties 290 12.5 References 291 CHAPTER 13 CLIMATE ADAPTATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 295 13.1 Definition of Adaptation 297 13.2 Major Stresses on the Southeast 299 13.3 Adaptation in the Southeast 302 13.4 Supporting Adaptive Capacity 314 13.5 Summary 316 13.6 References 316
CHAPTER 14 SOUTHEAST USA REGIONAL CLIMATE EXTENSION, OUTREACH, EDUCATION, AND TRAINING 321 14.1 Why Climate Education Is an Essential Part of Climate Science 323 14.2 A Starting Point for Climate Education: Climate versus Weather 324 14.3 Context for Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training 325 14.4 Delivery Methods 333 14.5 Program Integration 334 14.6 Barriers to Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training Regarding Climate Change 335 14.7 Ongoing Education, Outreach, Extension, and Training Programs 335 14.8 Conclusions 339 14.9 References 339 Chapter 1
Climate Change in the Southeast USA: Executive Summary
LEAD AUTHORS Keith T. Ingram ([email protected]; Southeast Climate Consortium, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Lynne Carter (Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) Kirstin Dow (Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments; Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina)
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Julie Anderson (School of Renewable Natural Resources, Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) Senthold Asseng (Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Charles Hopkinson (Department of Marine Sciences, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Charles Konrad (Southeast Regional Climate Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina) Steven McNulty (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) Kenneth Mitchell (Region IV, US Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Kevin Moody (Region IV, US Department of Transportation, Atlanta, Georgia) Dale Quattrochi (Marshall Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Huntsville, Alabama) Paul Schramm (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia) Ge Sun (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) LaDon Swann (Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium and Auburn University Marine Extension and Research Center, Mobile, Alabama)
1 2 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşDzȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱŗŗȱ ȱȱǻȱŗǯŗǼǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱěȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ
Figure 1.1 Map of the states in the Southeast region for the US National Climate Assessment. Note that the region and report also covers Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Climate Change in the Southeast USA: Executive Summary 3
1.1 Diversity and Vulnerabilities
ȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱĴǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱěȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ dominate during the spring and summer, tropical systems that are important during ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǰȱȱ ǰȱĚǰȱ ȱǰȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǻȱśǼȱȱ¢ȱǻȱşȱȱŗŗǼǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱęȱȱǻȱŝǼȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱŞǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱęǰȱȱ ȱǻȱşǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱřȱȱŝǼǯ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¡- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŖȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŞǯşȱ ȱǰȱȱȱŗřƖȱǻȱŗǯŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻŗŞǯśƖǼǰȱ ȱǻŗŞǯřƖǼǰȱȱǻŗŝǯŜƖǼǰȱȱȱȱǻŗśǯřƖǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻȬȱŘǯŘȱȱ ȬŘȱȱ¢ǼȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŗŖǼȱ ȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŚǼǰȱȱǻȱŝǼǰȱęȱȱȱǻȱ şǼǰȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱǻȱśǼȱǯ The diversity of people, natural and managed ecosystems, and resources of the ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŗŘǼȱ ȱȱęȱ¢ȱǻȱşǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ 4 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǻȱŜǼǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŗřǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŞǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ǻȱŗŘǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱ ȱȱǻȱŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŚǼȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ natural resources and the industries that depend on them. Thus, it is not surprising that ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŗŘȱȱŗřǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŗŚǼǯ
Table 1.1 Population of the Southeast USA and Puerto Rico in 2000 and 2010
State/Territory 2000 2010 Change (%)
Alabama ŚǰŚŚŝǰŗŖŖ ŚǰŝŝşǰŝřŜ ŝǯś ŘǰŜŝřǰŚŖŖ ŘǰşŗśǰşŗŞ 9.1
ŗśǰşŞŘǰřŝŞ ŗŞǰŞŖŗǰřŗŖ ŗŝǯŜ
Georgia ŞǰŗŞŜǰŚśř şǰŜŞŝǰŜśř ŗŞǯř
¢ ŚǰŖŚŗǰŝŜş ŚǰřřşǰřŝŜ ŝǯŚ
Louisiana ŚǰŚŜŞǰşŝŜ ŚǰśřřǰřŝŘ 1.4
Mississippi ŘǰŞŚŚǰŜśŞ ŘǰşŜŝǰŘşŝ 4.3
North Carolina ŞǰŖŚşǰřŗř şǰśřśǰŚŞř ŗŞǯś
South Carolina 4,012,012 ŚǰŜŘśǰřŜŚ ŗśǯř
Tennessee śǰŜŞşǰŘŞř ŜǰřŚŜǰŗŖś ŗŗǯś
ŝǰŖŝŞǰśŗś ŞǰŖŖŗǰŖŘŚ 13.0
Puerto Rico řǰŞŖŞǰŜŗŖ řǰŝŘśǰŝŞş -2.2
ȱȱ ŗŖŞǰŜŗŘ ŗŖŜǰŚŖś -2.0
Total 67,473,856 76,350,620 13.2
DZȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǰȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǯ Climate Change in the Southeast USA: Executive Summary 5
1.2 Time-scales of Interest to Southeast Decision Makers
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢¢ǰȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱ the science community can provide useful information at these shorter timescales, as ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ An advantage to providing climate information at shorter time-scales in the SE is ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱ ÛȬȱȱȱǻȱŘǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱÛȱ- ȱ¢¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱÛȱȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱÛȬȱȱ signal.
1.3 Future Scenarios
ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȃȄȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱĴǰȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱŘȱȱŗǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱ- ment alternatives. ȱŘȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ Řȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȃȱȱǯȄ ȱŗȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬĜȱǯȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱŗȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŗǯŘǼǯȱ ȱȱŘȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŗŖŖȱ ȱȱȱŗȱǰȱȱȱȱȬȱ 6 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ŗȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ adaptation and mitigation. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ - ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ
Figure 1.2 Population projections for the Southeast USA for the A2 (greatest climate change) and B1 (least climate change) scenarios.
1.4 Process for Developing this Book
This document has been produced through collaboration among three Regional Inte- ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ǼDZȱȱȱȱDzȱ ȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱDzȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȬȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ Ȭ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱşŖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ Climate Change in the Southeast USA: Executive Summary 7
ŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱȱŗŖŖȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗǰȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱŘřǰȱŘŖŗŘȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱ ȱ ȱ£ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ[email protected]Ǽȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
1.5 Report Organization
ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱDZȱǻŗǼȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱDzȱǻŘǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱ ǻřǼȱȬȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ and outreach.
1.6 References
ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ- ȱ¢DZȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǭȱ ȱȱȱŗŘȬŖŖŗDZȱŗȬśŜǯ ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦȦȦȏȏǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ DZȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱ¡ȱŚŝȱǻŘǼǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦŘŖŖşȦşǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ- Ȧȏȏȏȏ ȏŝȬŘřȬŗŘǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱDZȱŘŖŖŖȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ- ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŘŖŗŖȦȦŘŖŗŖȬŖŗǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱǰȱǰȱȱ- ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦĚ- ǯȦȦȦŘŖŗŗŖŞȏǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱĚȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ- ȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ £ȱŜŘȱǻřǼDZȱŞŝŝȬŞŞśǯȱ Chapter 2
Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future
LEAD AUTHORS Charles E. Konrad II ([email protected]; Southeast Regional Climate Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, North Carolina) Christopher M. Fuhrmann ([email protected]; Southeast Regional Climate Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, North Carolina)
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Amanda Billiot (Louisiana State Climate Office, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) Barry D. Keim (Louisiana State Climate Office, Louisiana State University, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) Michael C. Kruk (NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina) Kenneth E. Kunkel (NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina) Hal Needham (Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) Mark Shafer (Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Norman, Oklahoma) Laura Stevens (NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina)
Acknowledgements ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜǰȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǯ 8 Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 9
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ
Key Findings f ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱĚǰȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and tropical cyclones. These events have ȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱŗşŝŖǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŗȱȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȃȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¡¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ǯ f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ the SE, including the Caribbean, and increase across the northern tier through ȱęȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¡ȱȱȱǼǯȱȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Řŗȱ ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ degree days, the number of consecutive hot days, and interannual temperature variability are projected through the end of the 21st century. f There is much uncertainty regarding future projections of drought, severe ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ cyclones is projected to decrease through the end of the 21st century. Mean rela- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱŘŖȱȱŘŖŖȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱǼǯ
2.1 General Description
ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ topography of the region is diverse. In the southern and eastern portions of the region, ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ 10 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 2.1 Map of average daily January minimum temperature. Source: Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model, or PRISM; http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/.
ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ȱȱ£ȱȱȱǻŗǰśŖŖȱȱřǰŖŖŖȱǼȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻŘǰŖŖŖȱȱŜǰŜŖŖȱǼǯȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ Ȭȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ region for relocation and tourism. ȱȬȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢¢ȱ ȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ- ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȬȬ¢ȱȱ ȬȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱĴǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǰȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 11
ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱ¢¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢- ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȬȬ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȬȱǯȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻřśǚȱȱ ȱǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǯȱ ȱ the spring, the sharp contrast in temperature and humidity in the vicinity of the jet stream can promote the development of severe thunderstorms that produce damaging ǰȱȱǰȱȱǯȱ
Figure 2.2 Map of average daily July maximum temperature. Source: Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model, or PRISM; http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/. 12 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱŜŖǚȱȱȱȱȱŘŖǚȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱŘǯŗǼǯȱ ȱǰȱ- ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱşśǚȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱŝśǚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŘǯŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ across the Caribbean due to its tropical climate. In Puerto Rico, these variations relate to ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱśŖǚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŚǰŖŖŖȱǼǰȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱşśǚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǼȱȱ ȱĚȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǼȱǻȱŘǯřǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŜŖȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱŚŖȱȱśŖȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱ
Figure 2.3 Map of annual average precipitation. Source: Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model, or PRISM; http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/. Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 13
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ Ǽȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱŗŖŖȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱśȱȱŘśȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘǯŚǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŖȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻřśǚȱȱȱ Ǽȱ¡ȱĴȱ ȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ ȱŗȱȱȱ¢Ǽȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŜȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ
Figure 2.4 Annual average snowfall from 1981 to 2010. Source: Global Historical Climatology Network, or GHCN; http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/ghcn-daily/. 14 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
¡ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȬȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŗşşŜǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱǻ ȱŗşŞŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ȱŗşşŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȬȱȱǻǼȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡£ȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ totals across the Caribbean in the summer and fall seasons.
2.2 Extreme Events ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱǯȱȱŗşŞŖǰȱȱȱȱ¡- ȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ
Heavy Rainfall and Floods ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱĚȱĚȱȱȬȱȱĚȱȱ have enormous impacts on property and human life. These events result from a variety ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱ Ȭȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱĚȬȱȱȱȱĚȱĚȱȱ ȱ ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 15
ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱŗşŝŖȱȱŗşşşǰȱ¢ȱŜŖƖȱȱȱȱ ȱĚȱǻȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱĚȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ
Droughts ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱ ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¡ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱŗşşŞȬŘŖŖŘȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱŘŖŖŝȬŘŖŖŞȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǞŗȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ Ěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱ ǻȱ¡ȱŘǯŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ
Extreme Heat and Cold ȱȱȱȬȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱ ȱŝȱȱŞȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱ- ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱęȱȬȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬ£ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱȱǞŘŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ŗŘƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱȱ£Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşşŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ£ȱ 16 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Box 2.1 Extreme Drought amongst a Record Flood
ȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱ Ûȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱ climate-related conditions. In the early summer Las Niñas tend to dry out the Gulf Coast region ȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ something unusual, the simultaneous occurrence ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ¢- ȱȱȱȱȱĚ ǰȱȱȱ ȱ¡ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ- £ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ sippi, leaving them high and dry and producing ȱęȱȱȱŗşŝřȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ǰȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ Ȭ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱĚȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǻĴDZȦȦ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ǯǯǼǯȱ Louisiana.
On May 14, 2011, the US Army Corps of Engineers opened the first gate on the Morganza Floodway in Louisiana to relieve flooding on the Mississippi River. Source: US Army Corps of Engineers; http://www.flickr. com/photos/30539067@N04/5722952407). Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 17
ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱŗşşŚȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬřŝǚȱȱ ¢ǯȱ
Winter Storms ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ- ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¡ȱŜȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¡ȱŜȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ŗŖŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢- ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǻǼȱ Ȭȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱŗŖȱ¢ȱȱǼȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱŗşşŚǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǞřȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ December 2002 produced more than 1 in of ice accretion across parts of the Carolinas. ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱŗşşŚȱǰȱȱȱŗǯŞȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱŗşŞşȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯ
Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱǰȱ ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¡ȱȱśŞȱǰȱȱȱȱŗȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŘȱȱǼȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȃȱ¢Ȅȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖŝǼȱǻȱȱşȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱ¢ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ¢ȱȱ 18 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ¡ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȬȬȱȱȱȱȱęȱ£ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ ȱȬȱȱȱŗşśşȱȱŘŖŖŜȱǻ¢ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȬȬ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ęǯ
Tropical Cyclones ȱŗşŞŖǰȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŚȱȱŘŖŖśȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŖȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱŗşŖŖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ Ěǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱ¡ȱŘǯŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǰȱęȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¡ȱŝśȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱŗŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱśŖȱȱŝśȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĚǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢Ǽǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢Ǽȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱřȱȱśǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱ¢ȱŗśȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱ¢ȱŘŖȱ ¢Ǽȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ
2.3 Trends
This section provides analyses of climatic trends for the SE region. These include trends ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȂȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŞşśǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡- treme events, sea level rise, and Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
Precipitation No long-term trends are revealed in the time series of annual or summer season pre- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŖȱ¢ǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘǯśȱȱȱȱŗŚȱȱŗśȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 19
Box 2.2 Gulf Coast Storm Surge Database
ȱȱȱ Ȃȱȱȱ the largest surges have generally occurred in ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ large surges have also impacted the Mid-Atlantic ȱȱȱśśŖȱȱ¢Ȭȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŞŞŖǯȱȱ The complete dataset and map are hosted by to the creation of this dataset, such information ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴDZȦȦ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ surge.srcc.lsu.edu. Points on the map are interac- ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ and obtain information about that surge event. ȱ£ȱȬ ȱęȱȱȱǰȱ These data are supported by robust metadata ȱȱȬęȱȱȱ£ȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- storm surge levels. ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ compares active and historic cyclones, incorpo- ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ rating historic surge observations into a discus- surge activity, in terms of both surge magnitudes sion about surge potential in an active cyclone. ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- Such discourse brings storm surge history to life, ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱ potentially enhancing surge forecasts, hurricane Ȃȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ǯ to the Everglades, has generally observed less ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ
This map depicts 195 peak storm surges along the U.S. Gulf Coast since 1880. Each circle represents a unique storm surge event. Larger, darker circles depict higher magnitude storm surge levels. Source: Hal Needham and Barry Keim, Louisiana State University 20 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 2.5 Annual (black/dotted line) and summer season (red/grey) precipitation anomalies for the SE. Source: Cooperative Observer data from the National Climatic Data Center.
ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǯȱȱęȱȱ - ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱĚȱȱĴȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£Ȭȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻǯǯǰȱȱęȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȬȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱÛȬ- ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 21
ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱĚȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱę¢ǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱǻȱÛǼȱȱȱ ȱ Ĵȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱÛǼȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱĚ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱǼȱ ȱȱÛȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱĴǯȱȱȱȱȱÛȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱÛȱȱȱŗşşŝȬŗşşŞǯȱȱ ǰȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǻȱŗşşşǼǯȱ The severity of recent droughts across the southeastern region raises the possibility ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŗşşŘǰȱŗşşŚǰȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ prominent 20th and early 21st century droughts are not unusual in the longer-term con- ¡ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŗǰŖŖŖȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŜȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŝȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȯȱŗŜȱ¢ȱȃ- ȄȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŞȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ ȱŗşşŚǼȱȱ¢ȬȬȱŗşȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱ ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯ ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŞŖŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǼȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ǻ ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȬȱȱĴȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯ
Heavy Rainfall and Floods ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘǯŜǼǯȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱŘŘȱȱŘřȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 22 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱĚȱȱ¡Ȭǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚȱȱȱȇȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȬȱǰȱ ȱĚȱȱ ŘŖŖşǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ DZȱĴDZȦȦǯǯǯȦȦǯ
Temperature ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ- ȱǻȱŘǯŝǼǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŜŖȱȱŗşŝŖǯȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŗȱȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŗŜȱȱŗŝȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ is also related at least partially to increasing daily minimum temperatures due to hu- ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ£ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖŘǰȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯ
Figure 2.6 Time series of the extreme precipitation index (using a 5-year running average) for the SE for the occurrence of 1-day, 1 in 5 year extreme precipitation events (red/grey line) and 5-day, 1 in 5 year events (black/dashed line). Source: Cooperative observer data from the National Climatic Data Center and updated from Kunkel et al. (2003). Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 23
Figure 2.7 Annual (black/dotted line) and summer season (red/grey) temperature anomalies for the SE. Source: Cooperative observer data from the National Climatic Data Center.
ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱȃ ȱǰȄȱȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱęȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȬȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȬŗŞȱȱȱȬŘŖȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱęȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱ- ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ÛȱǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǼǯ
Extreme Heat and Cold ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱşśǚȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱŗřȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşřŖȱȱŗşśŖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱ¢ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱŗşŜŖȱȱŗşŝŖǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱŝśǚȱȱ¢ȱȱ 24 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
increasing across most of the SE region. This increase is most pronounced over the past ȱȱǻȱȱŗŚȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼȱȱȱȱĴȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖŘǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ DZȱĴDZȦȦǯǯǯȦȦǯ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ- ally been declining across most locations in the SE, though there is much decadal and ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱŗşȱȱŘŖȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗşȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŝŖȱȱȱȱŗşŞŖȱǻȱȱȱŗşşŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǼȱĴȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱǻǼȱǻ ȱȱȱŗşşřǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻ ȬȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ- ning in the 19th century have gradually forced the citrus industry and other industries, ȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ and converted to agricultural land, reducing the moisture in the atmosphere above ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯ
Winter Storms ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŗƖȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗşřŖȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ¡ȱŜȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşŜŖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǻȱȱŘǯŚǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ - ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ- ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱ Ǽȱȱȱ ĴȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱ change since the middle of the 20th century but more interdecadal variability relative ȱ ȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱ
Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱśŖȱ¢Dzȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ much-improved ability to identify and record storm damage. In the case of tornadoes, ȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻŗȱȱǼȱȱȱ¢ȱ- Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 25
ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱśŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱŗşřŖȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ increased in tornado-prone areas.
Hurricanes ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱřȱȱǼȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗŖŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼDzȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ĵȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱǻ ĵȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ŗşřŖȱȱŗşśŖǰȱȱŘŝȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱŗřȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşŝŖȱȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ ȱȱŗŖȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱ ȱȱȱÛȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ĵȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱ ȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱŗşŖŖȱȱŗŞŞŖǰȱ¢ǯȱȱǻŘŖŖŝǼǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻȱȱȱȱŗşŜŖǼȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬŗşŚŖǯȱȱȱȱŗşŚŖǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȦȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ in the number of short-lived storms detected since the introduction of satellites that ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŞŝŞȱ ȱŘŖŖŞȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻǼȱ ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻ ȱǼȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŖŜȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ŗşŝŖǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ĵȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŖŖȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ǻŘŖŖśǼȱȱ ĵȱǻŘŖŖŜǼȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŚȱȱśȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱĴȱ increasing trends in ACE and major Atlantic basin hurricanes to anthropogenic global ǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŗǰśŖŖȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 26 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗǰŖŖŖȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ an overall declining trend into the mid-20th century. This result is also supported by ¢ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŝǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬŗŞȱ¢ȱ to the early 1990s.
Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperatures ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱǼȱȱ ȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱśŖŖǰŖŖŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ records indicate variations in global sea level of as much as 100 meters that correspond ȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬŗşȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŗǯŝȱȱȱ¢ȱǻƸȦȬȱŖǯŘȱȱȱ¢ǼȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱřǯŖȱȱřǯśȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşşŖǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ- less, higher mean sea levels threaten the security of critical infrastructure and coastal ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŜȱȱ ŘŖŗŗȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱǻŗşŝřȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱ ȱęȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Trends in SSTs during the 20th century reveal a cooling over the North Atlantic near ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻŗǯŜǚȱȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱDzȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ
2.4 Future Projections This section provides a summary of future climate projections for the southeastern ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢¢ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 27
ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱřȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱǻ řǼȱȱ ȱȱ¢- ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗřǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ uncertainty and agreement.
Precipitation ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱŘȱȱŗȱȱ- narios from the IPCC AR4 reveal both increases and decreases in precipitation across the SE by the mid-21st century. Average annual precipitation is projected to decrease ¢ȱŘƖȱȱŚƖȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŜƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘǯŞǼǯȱȱȱ¡- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŚȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ Ȭȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ¢ȱŘŖřśǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ the SE that are smaller than typical year-to-year variations seen in the observed record ǻȱȱřŝȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗŘƖȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŜƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȬȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖȱ¢ǯȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŞśȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱŗşŝŗȬŘŖŖŖȱȱ period, indicating much uncertainty in precipitation projections by the end of the 21st ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ most of the region by the mid-21st century, particularly along the southern Appala- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱŘǯşǼǯȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŚȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ĴȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ projected increases in atmospheric stability and decreases in convection. These trends ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱ¢ȱ 28 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 2.8 Annual and seasonal difference in precipitation (percent) between projections for 2041– 2070 and the baseline of 1971–2000. Source: North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP).
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻĴȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱȬ£ȱǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǰȱǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱŘǯŗŖȱ ȱȱ observed and simulated mean decadal average precipitation changes for the SE from Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 29
Figure 2.9 Mean change in annual number of days with precipitation exceeding 1 inch (projections for 2041–2070 minus the baseline of 1971–2000). Source: North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP).
ŗşŖŖȱȱŘŗŖŖǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱŗşŖŗȱȱŘŖŖŖȱǯȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ- ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗśȱěȱ řȱ- ȱȱȱȱǻŘǼȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱŘŖȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ 2.10, the observed trends and variations in decadal average precipitation are small and ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ the 21st century indicate increased decadal variability in precipitation compared to the ŘŖȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱǼȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ 21st century portions of the time series indicate an overall increase in precipitation in ȱȱ¡ȱȱǻȱȱŚŜȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯ 30 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 2.10 Observed decadal mean annual precipitation change (percent change from the 1901 to 2000 average) for the southeastern US (black lines) and the 20th and 21st century simulations from 15 CMIP3 models for the high (A2) emissions scenario (gray lines). Source: Kunkel et al. (2013), Figure 45.
Temperature Mean annual temperatures are projected to increase across the SE through the 21st ¢ǯȱ¢ȱŘŖśŖǰȱȱȱȱǻřǚȱȱśǚǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘǯŗŗǼǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ şǚȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘǚȱȱŚǚȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱǻĴȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ řȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱŘŜȱȱŘŝȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŘǯŗŗǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ- ability than the mean annual temperature change. It is important to note that the range of temperatures across the model simulations is large, particularly through the middle ȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ ĴȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ¡ȱȱ¡ȱşśǚȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǻřśȱȱ¢ȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȬŘŗȱ¢ȱǻȱŘǯŗŘǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱȱ¢ȱŘŗȱȱǻěȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱşśǚǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱşŝƖȱȱŘŖŝƖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱśȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱǻĴȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 31
Figure 2.11 Annual and seasonal difference in temperature (°F) (projections for 2041–2070 minus the baseline of 1971–2000). Source: North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP).
ȱŗŖǚȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬŘŗȱ¢ȱǻȱŘǯŗřǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£Ȭȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱřŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȬŘŗȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ£Ȭȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱřŘǚǰȱȱęȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱ 32 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 2.12 Mean change in annual number of days with a maximum temperature exceeding 95°F (projections for 2041–2070 and baseline of 1980–2000). Areas with hatching indicate more than 50% of the models show a statistically significant change in the number of days with a maximum temperature exceeding 95°F, and more than 67% of the models agree on the sign of the change (see Kunkel et al. 2013). Source: North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP).
ȱȱśŖǚǼȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŘśƖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşƖȱȱ ŘřƖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱŚŘƖȱȱŚşƖȱ ¢ȱȱȬŘŗȱ¢ȱǻȱȱśȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǯȱ Projections of mean annual and seasonal temperature variability across the SE ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŘŖřśǰȱŘŖśśǰȱȱŘŖŞśǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ řȱȱȱȱǻŘǼȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ture. Secular changes in the temperature variability are calculated as a percent change Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 33
Figure 2.13 Mean change in annual number of days with minimum temperatures below 10°F (projections for 2041–2070 and baseline of 1980–2000). Areas with hatching indicate more than 50% of the models show a statistically significant change in the number of days with a maximum temperature exceeding 95°F, and more than 67% of the models agree on the sign of the change (see Kunkel et al. 2013). Source: North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP).
ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŝŗȱȱŘŖŖŖȱȱǯȱ The models reveal a trend of increasing annual variability of temperature across all ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱĴȱŘŗȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱśƖȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ- ability of 24% by the end of the 21st century. ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱŗşŜŖǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱę¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗşŖŖȱȱȱŗşřŖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗşřŖȱȱȱŗşŜŖȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ řȱȱ 34 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǻȱŘǯŗŚǼǯȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşŜŖȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşřŖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱŗşŜŖȱȱŗşŝŖȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ǯ
Droughts ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱǻ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǻ£ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ there is much uncertainty because of variations in the projections of future precipita- ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ
Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻěȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ is projected to increase throughout the 21st century, thereby providing additional ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ
Figure 2.14 Observed decadal mean annual temperature change (percent change from the 1901 to 2000 average) for the southeastern USA (black lines) and the 20th and 21st century simulations from 15 CMIP3 models for the high (A2) emissions scenario (gray lines). Kunkel et al. (2013), Figure 43. Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 35
ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȬȱȱȱǻěȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ
Hurricanes ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱřȱ ȱśǼȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻĴȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖśǼǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖśǰȱ- ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ
Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperatures ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ vulnerable to sea level rise. As the sea level rises, storm surge and coastal erosion from ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ report on sea level rise describes several global scenarios that project a mean rise of ȱŘŖȱȱŘŖŖȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ ȱǻŗŘŖȱȱŘŖŖȱǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱǻŘŖȱȱŜŖȱǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŚȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱ- ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻ- ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŘǼȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ Řŗȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǻřǚǼȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǻĴȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱę- 36 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱ model errors and biases in the IPCC AR4 projections, for instance, a cold bias in sea ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ
Air Quality ȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȯ such as increased temperatures, increased solar radiation, reduced precipitation, in- ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȯȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬŘŗȱ¢ȱǻȱ ȱ ȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȬŘŗȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȬȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŚǯśȱȱŝǯśȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŘȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱĴȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ by changes in atmospheric conditions.
2.5 References
¢ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱŗŞŞŖȬ ŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱŘŘȱǻŜǼDZȱŗŘŗŚȬŗŘŘŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŚŝȱǻřǼDZȱŞŖśȬŞŗŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱşŖȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŗśŖŗȬŗśŗŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ȱȱȱŘřȱǻśǼDZȱŝşśȬŞŖŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱřŘŝȱǻśşŜŚǼDZȱŚśŚȬŚśŞǯ Ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ of the Gulf Coast and Caribbean. Climatic ChangeȱŗŗŘDZȱŞŗşȬŞŚśǯǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ŗŞśŗȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȬŜǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦ ȬȬŜǯ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱ ȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱęǯȱȱȱśŜȱǻ ¢ǼDZȱŗşŗȬŘŖŗǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱŗŞȱǻŚǼDZȱŜŘŜȬŜŚŖǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱřŝȱǻŗǼDZȱřȬŗŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ Caribbean from a regional climate model. ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱřŗȱǻŗŘǼDZȱŗŞŜŜȬŗŞŝŞǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ££ǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ Carolinas. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŞşȱǻŗǼDZȱŘŖȬŘŞǯ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 37
ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşşǯȱ ȱȱŗşşŝȬşŞȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŞŖȱǻşǼDZȱŗŞŗşȬŗŞŘŞǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱDZȱŗşŚŞȬŘŖŖŖǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŚŘȱǻşǼDZȱŗřŖŘȬŗřŗśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŚśȱǻŞǼDZȱŗŗŚŗȬŗŗśśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ hurricanes. ȱȱȱřŗȱǻŜǼDZȱŗŖşŞȬŗŗŗŜǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱ ȱȱĴȱǵȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŞřȱǻśǼDZȱŝŘřȬŝřŚǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȬȱȱǵȱ ȱȱȱŗşȱǻŚǼDZȱśŚŞȬśŜřǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱěǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱ ǯȱ Ĵǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȬȱȱ ȱ¢DZȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱȱȱǯǯȱǰȱŚŖŘȬŚŗşǯȱDZȱ ¢Ȭ ȱǯ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱŗşȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŗȱ¢ǯȱ- ¢ȱȱ ¢ǰȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŖŝȦŗŖŝŗŘȬŖŗŗȬşŗŗşȬŗǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱřŖȱǻŚǼDZȱřŚřȬřśŗǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱ DZȱȱ ChangeȱŘǻŗǼDZȱŚśȬŜśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŗśȱǻŘŘǼDZȱřŗŞŞȬřŘŖśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ trends revisited. ¢ȱȱĴȱřŝǰȱŗŖŝŖŗDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖ ŖŚřřŘŗǯ ěǰȱǯǯǰȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ęȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǯȱ - ¢ȱȱĴȱřŝǰȱŗśŝŖŗDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖ ŖŚřŞŞŞǯ ěǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ ȱĚȱȱ¢ǵȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱŞşȱǻśřǼDZȱśśřȬśŜŖǯ ¡ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȮȱ ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ¡- ȱȱȱ¢ǵȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱşŘȱǻŚǼDZȱŚřřȬŚŚŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȬȱȬȱǯȱȱ ŚśřȱǻŝŗşŞǼDZȱŗŖşŖȬŗŖşřǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ States. ¢ȱ ¢ȱŘşȱǻŗǼDZȱřȬŗŞǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ DZȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱĴǯȱ ȱȱȱŜȱǻŘǼDZȱřŜŚȬřŝŘǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱşŚȱǻŗȬŘǼDZȱśŗȬŜśǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱěȱȬȱ ȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ Change śŖȱǻŗȬŘǼDZȱŜřȬŞŘǯ 38 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱŘşȱǻŚǼDZȱŘŞşȬřŖśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝȱȱ ȱȱ ȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱřŘȱǻřǼDZȱŘŗŝȬŘŚŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŞŚȱǻŝǼDZȱşŖŗȬşŖşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱ drought and relation to the North Atlantic high circulation. ȱ ȱȱ- ¢ȱŘŞȱǻřǼDZȱřŚřȬřśŖǯ Ȭǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱȂǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ model and climate indices. ¢ȱȱĴȱřśǰȱŗŗŝŖřDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŞ ŖřřŝŘŖǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ DZȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŖȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱŘŗȱǻşǼDZȱŗŞśŖȬŗŞŜŘǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- tions. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱşŖȱǻŞǼDZȱŗŖşśȬŗŗŖŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȂȱȱ - ȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦęȦȦȏȦȏȏȏȏǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱŘȱǵȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱśŝȱǻŗǼDZȱŗȬşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ Ĝǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ - ¢ȱȱŗŖşǰȱŘŘřŖŗDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŚ ŖŖŚŜşŖǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱDZȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǵȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢Ȭ- ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱřŜśȱǻŗŞŜŖǼDZȱŘŜşśȬŘŝŗŜǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝDZȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ. Ed. S. Solomon, D. ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱěǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱĚȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱřŞȱǻşǼDZȱŘŖŖřȬŘŖŗřǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŘȱ£Ȭȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱŗřŘȱǻŝǼDZȱŗŜřŖȬŗŜŚŚǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱClimatic Change şşȱǻŗȬŘǼDZȱŘŚŝȬŘśşǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱŗŗŘǰȱŗŜŗŖŝDzȱ DZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŜ ŖŖŝśŚŗǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ- lution spatial dataset. ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŝȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŗřŖřȬŗřŘśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşŜǯȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱĴȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱŗŝȱǻŚǼDZȱřŗřȬřŘŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŘŖȱǻŗŚǼDZȱřŚşŞȬřśŖşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱ under global climate change scenarios. ¢ȱ ¢ȱřŘȱǻŜǼDZȱśŜŗȬśŞŘǯ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 39
ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŝśŗDZȱȱȱȱȱ and multidecadal variability. ¢ȱŘřǰȱřŘŘŖDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŞŖŖŗśşŞǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŚŝşǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ¢- ǰȱ ¢ȱŗŗȱǻŗŖǼDZȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖ ŖŖřŗŝŗǯ ĵǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŜDZȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱǻŗşŞŜȬ ŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴȱřřDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŜ ŖŘśŞŞŗǯ ĵǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȬȱȂȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ landfalls. ȱȱȱŘŚȱǻŚǼDZȱŗŘśŘȬŗŘŜřǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱŘŞȱǻŘǼDZȱŗŘŜȬŗŚŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȬ 114, D23102. ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ A.K. Srivastava, M. Sugi. 2010. Tropical cyclones and climate change. ȱ 3 ǻ¢ǼDZȱŗśŝȬŗŜřǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱřŖȱǻŚǼDZȱśŘŘȬśřŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ ŚşȱǻŝǼDZȱŗśřŞȬŗśŚŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ- peratures and precipitation over land and oceans. ȱȱȱŗŝȱǻřǼDZȱŜśřȬŜŜŚǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱDZȱŗŞşśȬŘŖŖŖǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴȱřŖDzȱDZȱ ŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖř ŖŗŞŖśŘǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȃ - ȱȄȱȱȱȱȱǵȱ ȱȱȱŗşȱǻŗŝǼDZȱŚŗřŝȬŚŗśřǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱǯǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢Ȭȱǯȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŜȱǻŗǼDZȱřřȬŚŚǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱ ǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗřǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱǯȱȱŘDZȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱŗŚŘȬŘǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŗşŖŖǯȱǰȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱŞŞȱǻŗŞǼDZȱŗşŝȬŘŖŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ£Ȭǰȱǯȱ - ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȬ¢ȱDZȱ ȱȱŗŞśŗȬŗşŗŖȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱ - ȱȱ¢DZȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯ ǯȱȱȱ Ȭȱǯȱ ȱDZȱ- ȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ Atlantic tropical cyclone counts.ȱ ȱȱȱŘřȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŘśŖŞȬŘśŗşǯ ǰȱȬ ǰȱǯǯȱęǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ Atlantic hurricanes. ȱȱȱŘŚȱǻŚǼDZȱŗŘŜŚȬŗŘŝśǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǵȱ ¢ȱȱĴȱřŜǰȱŗŚŞŖŘDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖş ŖřŞŜŖşǯ 40 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴȱřŘǰȱŗŜŝŗŗDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖś ŖŘŘşŗŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǯȱȱ¢ DZŗŖǯŗŖŖŝȦŖŖřŞŘȬŖŗŗȬŗŘŗŚȬ¢ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱȬ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ¡ ǰȱǯȱĴǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǯȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȬ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴǯȱȱȱŜȱǻŞǼȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ- cillation control of climate in Puerto Rico. ȱȱȱŗŗȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŘŝŗřȬŘŝŗŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱŞŝȱǻŘŚǼDZȱŗşŝȬŘŖŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱěǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗǰśŖŖȱ¢ǯȱȱŚŜŖȱǻŝŘśŝǼDZȱŞŞŖȬŞŞśǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱŗŗŜȱǻŚǼDZȱŗŜŞȬŗŝŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ North America simulated by a global climate model. ȱȱĴȱŞȱǻŚǼDZȱŗŖŖȬŗŖŜǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱǵȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱŗřŘȱǻşǼDZȱŘŘŚřȬŘŘśŞǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱŗřŘȱǻŗǼDZȱŘŞȬśŘǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱ ¢ȱȱ- ȱřŞǰȱŗŚŞŖřDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŗ ŖŚŝŝŗŗǯ ¡ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱŗşśŖȬŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱŗŖŘȱǻŘǼDZȱŗȬŗŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȬȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱȱȱŚŚřǰȱŗȬŗŗǯȱ DZȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴȱřŜǰȱŗśŝŖŘDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖş ŖřŞśŘśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱȂǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱ ŗŗŜDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖ ŖŗśřŜŝǯ ǰȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȮȱǰȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǯǯȦ ȦŘŖŗŗŖŞȏǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱęǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- mates from tide gauges and altimeters. In ȱȬȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱȱȱǯǯȱǯȱDZȱ¢Ȭ ȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ Ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŘŘȱǻŘŘǼDZȱśşŜŘȬśşŞŘǯ ȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȦȱȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦ£ǯ Climate of the Southeast USA: Past, Present, and Future 41
ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŖŘȦǯŘŚŘśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŗȱǻŗśǼDZȱŗŞŞşȬŗşŘŘǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŗşŝŖȱȱŗşŞŖȱȱȱȱȱŘŝŖȱ¢ǯȱȱŚŚŝȱǻŝŗŚśǼDZȱ ŜşŞȬŝŖŗǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ¡ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȬȱ Ěȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱ Ȭȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱśŖȱǻŜǼDZȱŗŗŝŝȬŗŗŞŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȃ ȱȄǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴ 31, ŗŝŗŖşDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŚ ŖŘŖśŘŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱǰȱǯȱǻȱǼǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ĵǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱǯȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱřŗȱǻŘǼDZȱŗśŜȬŗŝŗǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ęǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŞŜȱǻŗŗǼDZȱŗśŝŗȬŗśŝśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŖŜȱǻŗŞǼDZȱŝřŘŚȬŝřŘşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǵȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŗşşřȬŘŖŖŝǯȱ ¢ȱ ȱĴȱřŜǰȱŖśŜŖŘDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖş ŖřŜśŜŚ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. ȱŚŜŗȱǻŝŘŜŜǼDZȱşŝŗȬşŝśǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȮȱŗŗśDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖ ŖŗŚŗŘŘǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢- clones. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŞŗȱǻşǼDZȱŘŖŜśȬŘŖŝŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱěǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ¡ȱȱęȱȱȱȬ ȱȬȱȱȱȱ ¢Ȭęȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱřŗȱǻśǼDZȱśśŗȬśŝŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱęǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ the drying of Meso-America in future climate projections. ȱȱȱŘŚȱǻŝǼDZȱŘŖŖřȬŘŖŗŜǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- tion models. ȱ¢ȱřŗȱǻśǼDZȱśŞŝȬśşŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȮȱŗŖŝȱ ǻŚŝŚŞǼDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŗ ŖŖŗśŝŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŗǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŚȱǻŗŗǼDZȱŗŗŖřȬŗŗŗřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ DZȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖşȦŗŖǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴȱřŝǰȱŗŚŝŖřDzȱ DZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖ ŖŚřŞřŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱǰȱ variability over the last millennium, and the potential for future hydroclimate change. - ȱȱȱŘŘȱǻŗşǼDZȱśŖŘŗȬśŖŚśǯ 42 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¡ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱşŘȱǻŝǼDZȱŞŜŗȬŞŝŖǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşŘǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯǯȱȱȱȱŗŖŖŖȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŝřȱ ǻŗŘǼDZȱŗşŚŝȬŗşŜŗǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşŚǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱ ȱǯȱClimatic ChangeȱŘŜȱǻŘǼDZȱŗşşȬŘŗŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱŘŞŖȱǻśřŜřǼDZȱśŜŚȬśŜŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ Ȭ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȬȱȱȱŗŜȱ¢ȱȱȱ North America. ǰȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱŞŗȱǻŗŘǼDZȱŗŘŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ĜǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȬȱȱȱȱ North America since A.D. 1300. Climatic ChangeȱŞřȱǻŗȬŘǼDZȱŗřřȬŗŚşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ Ĝǰȱ ǯ ǯȱȂǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȬ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱ¢¢ȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱřŞȱǻŗŗȬŗŘǼDZȱŘŚŚşȬŘŚŜŜǯ £ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱĴȱśȱǻŚǼDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŞŞȦȱ ŗŝŚŞȬşřŘŜȦśȦŚȦŖŚŚŖŗŘǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯǯȱǯȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ¡ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯǯȱȱȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǻȱǼȱ - land ice sheet. In State of the Climate in 2011. ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ 93 ǻŝǼDZȱŗřŚȬŗřŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ North Atlantic. ȱȱȱŘŘȱǻŜǼDZȱŗŚŜşȬŗŚŞŗǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ- genically enhanced global radiative forcing. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ 104 ǻśǼDZȱŗşŝŗşȬŗşŝŘřǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱřŖŞȱǻśŝŘşǼDZȱŗŝśřȬŗŝśŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĵǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- DZȱŗşśŚȬŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŗǼDZȱŞŜȬşřǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢¢ȱŗŗȱǻŚǼDZȱŗŖŖŝȬŗŖŗŞǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȬȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱřŖşȱǻśŝŚŘǼDZȱŗŞŚŚȬŗŞŚŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱ ¢- ¢ȱŗŘDZȱŗřśşȬŗřŝŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱŞŖŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Puerto Rican speleothem. ȱȱ¢ȱȱĴȱřŖŞȱǻŗȬŘǼDZȱŘřȬŘŞǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- sity. ȱ¢ȱřŜȱǻşȬŗŖǼDZȱŗŞśŗȬŗŞŜŚǯ Chapter 3
Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA
COORDINATING AUTHOR Paul J. Schramm ([email protected]; Climate and Health Program, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia)
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Carina G.M. Blackmore (Department of Environmental and Global Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) William Crosson (Universities Space Research Association, Huntsville, Alabama) Christopher T. Emrich (Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute, Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina) Maury Estes (NASA, Huntsville, Alabama) Michael Goodman (NASA, Huntsville, Alabama) Erin K. Lipp (Department of Environmental Health Science, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Yang Liu (Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia) Glenn Morris (Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Richard P. Stumpf (National Ocean Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland) Lauren Thie (Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, Division of Public Health, North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services, Raleigh, North Carolina) Michelle C. Tomlinson (National Ocean Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland)
Acknowledgements ȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱ ȱǯ
43 44 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǻǼDZȱȱȱDzȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢Ȧ ¢ȱDzȱǰȱ¡ȱ ǰȱȱȬȱDzȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡DzȱȬȱȱ£ȱDzȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ- ¢DzȱȱȱȦȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ other areas, such as mental health and food security may also occur, but more research ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯ
Key Findings
f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱęǯ f ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ǯ f ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěǯ f Sea-level rise could impact human health by increasing storm surges and disrupting infrastructure and ecosystems. f Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱĴ f ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ
3.1 Climate Change and Human Health
ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ Ĵǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡- ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ the assessment of climate-related health issues in the region. ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ events through improved monitoring, prediction, education, communication, engage- ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- mation into a form that is useful for public health can also help in managing and reduc- ȱ¢ǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 45
ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǼǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǼȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ£Ȭȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ
3.2 Heat and Cold
As a result of global climate change, global mean temperatures have been rising and ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘǚȱȱŗşŝŖǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŚǯśǚȱȱȱȱȱ şǚȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŞŖǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ through the end of this century. Summer temperatures alone could rise by as much as ŗŖǯśǚȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱǻĴȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ- ¢ȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȂȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ negative impact on human health. Despite the increase in average temperatures in the SE over the past several decades, heat-related mortality overall has been decreasing. Improvements in health care and ȱȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ£- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖřǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȬŗşşŖȱȱȱȬŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȬ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱŜŞȱȬȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱŗşşŘȱȱŘŖŖŜȱȱȱȱȱȱřŖƖȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱŗřȱȱȱȱȱŜȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱ Ǽȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ŗşȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ 46 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ on the public health system. Improving education and communication, particularly ȱȬȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĜǯȱ¢ǰȱȱěȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ collaboration and connect climate data to health data. Moreover, designing and uti- £ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ heat-related threats. ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ¡ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ the optimal temperature range for major crops including corn, peanuts, soy, rice, and ȱǻ ęȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȬŗşŝŖǰȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱęȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ cold temperatures is much less pronounced than the response to high temperatures, ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱĜȱȱ- ȱǻ ȱȱ ĵ¢ȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ
3.3 Air Quality Effects on Respiratory and Airway Diseases
ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱDzȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ Dzȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡Ȭȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱěȱȱǰȱȱ higher temperatures leading to higher fossil fuel consumption. In turn, atmospheric ¢ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱĴǰȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱĴȱǻŘǯśǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱ
PMŘǯśȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȬ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 47
ŞȬȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŚŖȱȱ ŘŖśŖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŖŖǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ǰȱȱȱȱŗȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱřȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱŞȬȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŘǯśȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ £Ȭȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡- ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱ£ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ
There is less consensus in the estimated PMŘǯś concentration trends in the SE. A small ȱȱŗȱȦ3 has been reported in one study, as increased future emissions un- ȱȱȬȬȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- crease of PMŘǯśȱȱ¢ȱŘŖśŖǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱȱŘǯś by as ȱȱřŖƖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ 3 PMŘǯśȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǀȱŗȱȦ ǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ęǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱĴȱǻǼȱĴȱ¢ȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ę¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻ- Ĵȱȱ ĵȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ęȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ that the incidence of allergies and other respiratory illnesses related to airborne pollens ȱȱȱǯȱ
3.4 Storms, Extreme Weather, and Sea Level Rise
ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱĚǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŖŗǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢Ȃȱȱ 48 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘǚȱȱŗŖǚȱǻȱȱ - ȱŘŖŖŞDzȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱŘŖřŖǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ North Carolina, and Georgia are projected to have some of the largest numbers of older ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱ- tential of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin, based on longer storm lifetimes ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȬŗşŝŖȱǻȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ also impeded transportation and prevented many people from obtaining emergency ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱřřƖȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¡ȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱęǰȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŝȱ- ȱȱǰȱĚȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱĚǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęǰȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱȱȱŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ level rise have the potential to protect public health by supporting emergency response ȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ
3.5 Harmful Algal Blooms and Marine Toxins
ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱ¡Ȭȱȱȱȱȱ¢- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŘǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 49
ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱ ¢ȱ ŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢- ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚȱ¢ȱȱĴDzȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱ řǯŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱěȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ěȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
Table 3.1 Summary of Potential Climate Impacts on Marine Toxins in the Southeast.
Organism Location Trend Citation(s)
¢- ȱȱȱ Moving up the Eastern ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝ ȱ in the 1990s Dzȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ
ȱ ȱȱȱ Tester et al. 1991, ȱDzȱ- ȱ ȱȱǯȱ ance in Mississippi and ŘŖŖŜ Louisiana
¢ ȱȱ¡ ȱȱȱȱȱ Campbell et al. 2010 ȱȱŘŖŖŞ
¢ȱ ȱȱȱ Landsberg et al. from the mid-1990s ŘŖŖŜ
ȱ South Carolina, ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŖDzȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖ ȱȱ observed
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱęȱȱǻǼȱȱ¡ȱęȱȱǻǼǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱǻǼȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱǻǼȱ ¡ȱǻȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱ¡ǰȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ǯȱȱȱ¡ȱ 50 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱęȱȱǻȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱǼǰȱ- ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęǰȱěȱȱȱ śŖǰŖŖŖȱȱśŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȬȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱĚȱ ȱ and some related species. ǯȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱȃȱȄȱȱǯȱ- ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ humans. During a bloom, hospital admissions for respiratory illness increase, and asth- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ byproduct of red tide is changes in tourism plans that can lead to millions of dollars in ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŝDzȱȱȱśǼǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŘǼȱȱȱ ¡ȱ¢ǯȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ to humans. ¢ȱȱis a cyanobacterium of subtropical origin that ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşşŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢- blooms. ȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞDzȱ ěȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱŗşŞŝǰȱ ȱȱǻȱȃȱ ȄǼȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşŞŞȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŗǼǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ of tropical ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¡¡ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱęȱȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŗşşşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ temperatures favors development of ȱspp. ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȬȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡Ȧȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 51
ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŜȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱŘŖŖśȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ these storms have contributed to the spread or relocation of blooms in the past and it is ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ
3.6 Vector-borne and Zoonotic Disease
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱȱ include malaria, vectored by ȱsp. Dzȱȱ¢ ȱǰȱ- nya, and dengue fever vectored by ȱ¢ and ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŗşśŖǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ screens help interrupt transmission by separating the vectors from susceptible hosts. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ - ǰȱȱȱŘŖŖřȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŚǼȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱ ŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¡ȱȱĚȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱǯȱŗşŞŝǼǯȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ susceptible vertebrate hosts to propagate the disease transmission cycle. Regardless ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱ£ȱ ȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱ £ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ- Dzȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ these diseases in the region. The greatest climate change related vector-borne disease concerns are associated ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢. The hu- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ high host densities. As energy prices increase, the cost of running air-conditioning may ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ 52 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
addition, climate change is predicted to increase the severity of tropical storms and hur- ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ and susceptible human hosts, and it is possible that any climate-associated ecological ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǯȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ £ȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ȱŘŖśśǰȱȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱǻ£ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯ
3.7 Water Quality and Quantity ǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŖƖȱ¢ȱŘŖřŖȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢Dzȱ¡ȱĴȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱǻ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱ¡ȱȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱDzȱȱȱȱ Dzȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ ǯȱȱęǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ¢ȱȱȬ ȱȱǻȱǰȱȱȱ£Ǽȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢- ȱǻȱȱ£Ǽǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱĚȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱ- sion, or virulence. Changing climate or environments could alter or facilitate transmis- ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȦȱȱȱ£ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ¡¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ǰȱȱ£ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¡ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ- ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŗǼȱ¡ȱȱȱǻǼȱ ranges of certain disease and pathogens related to moderate changes in temperature, ǻŘǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǻřǼȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱ Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 53
ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ- ȱȱǼȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱserovars continue to be ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȂ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǰȱ¢ȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ of ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ - ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱinfections that are currently driving regional and national trends in increasing disease incidence ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯ Naturally occurring pathogens, including the marine bacteria ȱsppǯǰȱare ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱDZ ǯȱ¢, ǯȱę, ǯȱȱȬŗȱȱǯȱ¢. ȱspp. are ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱillnesses are common in the coastal ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱęȱarise ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ Pathogenic ȱspp.ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱŗśoȱǻ£Ȭ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ states and southeastern Atlantic states include a greater overall diversity of spp. ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱinfections as- ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ£Ȭ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ temperature is greater than 20oǯȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşşŝȱȱŘŖŖŝȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱŗşŞŝȱȱŗşşŝǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ than 20oȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱřŖŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱęȱill- ȱǻ£Ȭ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱspp. infections have ȱ¢ȱȱȱŗŗśƖȱȱŗşşŜȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬ ȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşŚŞȱȱŗşşŚȱȱȱśŗƖȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱşŖȱȱȱŜŞƖȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱŞŖȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱ- 54 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ spp.ǰȱ spp., spp., ¢ȱspp., and a range of enteric viruses, such as noroviruses, hepatitis A viruses, and enteric viruses. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢DZȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱĚ ǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡- ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱęȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱÛȬȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ ȱȱÛȱȱ ȱę- ly higher levels of fecal contamination that are measured using fecal coliform bacteria ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱǰȱęȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ ȱ ȱȱÛȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱę¢ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ - ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ for ȱspp. ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ŘŖŖśȱǰȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱspp. infection increased ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱŘŘȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱŗşşşǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ Ěȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĵȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ
3.8 Human Migration and Displacement and Healthcare Disruption
ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşřǰȱ - ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱĴȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ řǯŗȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ understood aspects of this additional need is related to medical surge and the need to create accurate plans for the accommodation of increased patient volumes both inside ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǰȱĴȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱ Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 55
ȱ ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ
Figure 3.1 Disaster diaspora populations from Mississippi by evacuation location.
3.9 References
ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȏȦȏ Ȧȏ ǯ¡Ǜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱŞŗȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢¢ȱ ĚȂȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱŗŝŘȱǻŘǼDZȱŗşşȬŘŖŗǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱĴȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ£ȱȱŘǯś concentrations to global changes. ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱşȱǻŚǼDZȱŗŗŗŗȬŗŗŘŚǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ ǼDZȱȱȱȱ health response. ȱȱȱȱŗŞȱǻŗǼDZȱŘŖȬřŗǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱȬ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱ ȱDZȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŗȬŘŗŞȱǻȱŗŖǼǯ 56 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ oceanography and human health. ¢ȱŗşȱǻŘǼDZȱşŚȬŗŖŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȬȱŗşşşDZȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱŖŖȬŚŖşřǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱĴDZȦȦǯ ǯȦ Ȧ ŖŖŚŖşřȦ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ¢DZȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱŗřȱǻŗŗǼDZȱŗŖşŞȬŗŗŖŘǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱśśȱǻŘǼDZȱŘřȬŗřŘǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȯ ȱǰȱŘŖŖŗȬŘŖŖŘǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱśřȱǻŞǼDZȱŘřȮŚśǯȱ Ĵǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱ ŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ¢DZȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱŘśȱǻřǼDZȱŘşŝȬřŖŜǯ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯ ǯȱǯȱ
ŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ of several globally important crops. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱŜŖȱǻśǼDZȱŚŜşȬŚŝŚǯ ¡ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ȱ ȱȱŗŗŝȱǻŚǼDZȱśŖŞȬśŗŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱǰȱǯǯȱęǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ǰȱ ǰȱȱ¡¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱśȱǻŘǼDZȱŗşşȬŘŗŘǯ Ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱȂǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱŗřŝȬŗŜśǯȱDZȱ ȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ¢Ĵǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ¢ǰȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱĚ ȱ¢¢ǯȱ ȱȱ¢¢ȱŚŜǻŗǼDZȱŜŜȬŝśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȬȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱŘşȱǻŘǼDZȱŚŚśȬŚśśǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱĴȱ¢ȱȱȯŗŖȱǰȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱśşȱǻŗŚǼDZȱŚŗŞȬŚŘŘǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱȱȯ ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱŘŖŖşȮŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱśşDZȱŝŝȮŞŗǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱDZȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱĴȱ¢ȱȱȯȱȱȱ- ȱ ǰȱŗŖȱǯǯȱǰȱŗşşŜȬŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱŜŖȱǻŘŘǼDZȱŝŚşȬŝśśǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱŝȱǻŝǼDZȱŘŞŜŜȬŘŞŞŖǯ Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 57
ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ ĚȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ fecal coliform levels in Mississippi Sound. ȱȱřŞȱǻŘŖǼDZȱŚřŚŗȬŚřśŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱȬȂǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱDZȱȱ¢Ȭ- erating study. ¢ȱȱ ȱŗřŞȱǻřǼDZȱřŚŖȬřŚŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ- ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŝDZȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱǯǯȱ ǰ řşŗȬŚřŗǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱĵǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱŗşŚŞȬŗşşŚǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱşŗȱǻŞǼDZȱŗŗşŚȬŗŗşşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱěǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȬȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱŗŗŗȱǻŗŚǼDZȱŗŝŗŘȬŗŝŗŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȬȱȱDZȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱŗşşŝȬŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ ȱȱŚŜȱ ǻŝǼDZȱşŝŖȬşŝŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱCli- ȱȱŘŖŖŝDZȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ, ed. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱȱ ǯǯȱǰȱŚşşȬśŞŝǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱǯ Drummond, M.A. and T.R. Loveland. 2010. Land-use pressure and a transition to forest-cover ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŜŖȱǻŚǼDZȱŘŞŜȬŘşŞǯ Ȃ£ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱěȱ- ȱǵȱ¢ȱŗśȱǻŗǼDZȱŞŜȬşŘǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȂǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱȱȱǯ ǯȱǰȱřşȬŞŝǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- dian provinces.ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱśŖȱǻŜǼDZȱřŞśȬřşŗǯ ȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ¡ȱȱěȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¡ȱǻ¡Ǽȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱŗŗŝDZŗŖşśȬŗŗŖŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ DZȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ strategies. ȱȱȱŝŗȱǻřǼDZȱŗşŚȬŗşŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ - ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȬǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱĴ¡ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱ DZȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȦȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱ ȱşşȱǻşǼDZȱşřřȬşřşǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱŗŖşȱǻȱŘǼDZȱŗşŗȬŗşŞǯȱ 58 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
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ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŖȱǻşǼDZȱŞŚşȬŞśşǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱ ǯȱ ĵ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱ ȱȱřŖȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŗǼDZȱ 91-103. ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŘŚȱǻśǼDZȱŗŚşşȬŗśŖŜǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ- ¢ȱȱ¢ȱşȱǻřǼDZȱŞŜśȬŞŝŞǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱ £ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£Ȭǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱěȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- tropical estuary. ȱŘŚȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŜŜȬŘŝŜǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱÛȬȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱŘŚȱǻŚǼDZȱŚşŗȬŚşŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ genus Gambierdiscus. ¡ȱśŜȱǻśǼDZȱŝŗŗȬŝřŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱęDZȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ climate change. ¡ȱśŜȱǻśǼDZȱŜşŗȬŜşŝǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱřś ǻśǼDZȱŚŘşȬŚřśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱŞŝȱǻŘŚǼDZȱŘřřȬŘŚŚǯȱ £Ȭ£ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ. ȱȱ ȱŚřȱǻŝǼDZȱŗŝŞŖȬŗŝşŖǯ Mississippi Department of Marine Resources. 2011. Assessment of sea level rise in coastal Missis- ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦŘŖŗŗȬȬęǯ ȱǻ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȯǰȱŘŖŖřǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŖŚDzȱśřȱǻŗşǼDZȱŚŗŘȬŚŗřǯ ȱǻ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱDZȱȱȱ ěȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱŗŝȬŘŘǰȱŘŖŖśǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŖŜDzȱśśřŞȬŚŗ ȱǻ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ - ȯȱǰȱŗşşŘȬŘŖŖŜǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱśŝȱǻŘŚǼDZȱŜşŚȬŜśřǯ ȱǻ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱDZȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱĴȱ¢ȱȱDZȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱŗŖȱǯǯȱǰȱŗşşŜȮŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱŜŖȱǻŘŘǼDZȱŝŚşȬŝśśǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ Ȧ Ȧ ȦŜŖŘŘśǯ ǵȏƽŜŖŘŘśȏ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and hu- man health. ȱ ȱŝȱǻȱŘǼDZȱŚǯ £ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȬȱȱȱȱŝȱǻŚǼDZȱ śŘşȬśŚŖǯ 60 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ĜǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ŗřśȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŞŗȬŘşŘǯ ȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ £ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ- ȱǯȱĴDZȦȦŘǯǯǯǯȦȦƖŘŖȬƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖ Report%202010%20-%20CRC%20Science%20Panel.pdf Ȃǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¡ȱȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱśŗȱǻŗǼDZȱŗřȬŘś ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ěȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱŚŚȱǻŗŚǼDZȱŚŗŞŜȬŚŗşŚǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ - ȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱDZȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱŗŖŜȱǻŗŞǼDZȱŝřŘŚȬŝřŘşǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ£¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱȬĴǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ ęȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱŗŖDZȱȱ ȱ ȱŗŗşȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŗŚŗśȬŗŚŘŖǯ £ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ãǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱŚŘȱǻŞǼDZȱŞśŝȬŞşŖǯ ĵǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱŗŗşȱǻśǼDZȱŚŝŘȬŚŝŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ river.ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱşŞȱǻśǼDZȱŗŗŘŝȬŗŗřŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ emergency department operations. ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱŗŗȱǻśǼDZȱŚŜŚȬŚŜŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱŗşŝśȬŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ £ǰȱśŖȱǻŗǼDZȱŗŚśȬŗŜŖǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ £ȱśśȱǻŘǼDZȱŘşŗȬřŖśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱĚȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ǯȱȱ ȱ- ȱŗŖşȱǻŘǼDZȱŗśśȬŗśşǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱŗşşŝǯȱȱȱȱǵȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŚŘȱǻśǼDZȱŗŗřŘȬŗŗřŜǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱ ¢ȱĴȱȱȱěȱ- tionships. ȱȱŚŚȱǻŗŜǼDZȱŚŝŖŚȬŚŝŗśǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱŚŚȱǻŜǼDZȱŗŚŚŗȬŗŚśŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱěǯȱȱȱǭȱ- ¢ȱŚřȱǻŗřǼDZȱŚşŝşȬŚşŞŞǯ Human Health and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 61
ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱęȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȮȱ112, ŗŚřŗŘDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŜ ŖŖŞŘŜŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱęȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¡ȱśŜȱǻśǼDZȱ ŜşŞȬŝŗŖǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŗǯȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱDZȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱřŜȱǻśǼDZȱ ŗŖśřȬŗŖŜŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱĴȬ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢DZȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱŚřȱǻŝǼDZȱŗŝŚśȬŗŝŜśǯ ȱǻȱȱ ȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱDZȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ ǰȱȱȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱ- ¢ǰŝřȱǻśǼDZȱŗřşśȬŗŚŖřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱ - ȱȱŜȱǻŘǼDZȱŘśřȬŘśşǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱDZȱřřȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Ĵǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşŞŝǯȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱfor Dengue 2 virus.ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ¢ȱřŜȱǻŗǼDZȱŗŚřȬŗśŘǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŗşşŝǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱLoui- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ĴDZȦȦǯȦȦȦŗşşŝȦǯǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ŗşşŞȬŘŖŖŝǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱŗřşȱǻŚǼDZȱśşŗȬśşŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱûǰȱǯȱûǰȱǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱ£ȱ of populations of an invasive Cyanobacterium in temperate regions. ȱŗśŘȱǻřǼDZȱŚŝřȬŚŞŚǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ¢DZȱȱ¡¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱřȱǻŗǼDZȱŗřȬŗşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱ - ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŞȱǻŜǼDZȱŝŘŝȬŝřŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱŘŖŖŖȬŘŖśŖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¢Ȭȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȮȱŗŗřǰȱŗŞřŗŘDzȱ DZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŝ ŖŖşŜřşǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȮȱǰȱŘŖŖśȬŘŖŖŜǯȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱśŝȱǻşǼDZȱřşȬŜŘǯ Ĵǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱ ĵǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱŜŖȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŞşŖȬŞşśǯ Chapter 4
Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA
LEAD AUTHOR Kenneth L. Mitchell ([email protected]; US Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia)
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Marilyn Brown (Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia) Ryan Brown (US Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Diana Burk (Southface, Atlanta, Georgia) Dennis Creech (Southface, Atlanta, Georgia) Garry P. Garrett (Southern States Energy Board, Norcross, Georgia) Daniel Garver (US Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Julie Harrington (Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida) David Letson (University of Miami, Miami, Florida) Pat Long (East Carolina University, Greenville, North Carolina) Stephen A. Smith (Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, Knoxville, Tennessee) Karen Utt (Tennessee Valley Authority, Chattanooga, Tennessee) Thomas J. Wilbanks (Oakridge National Laboratory, Oakridge, Tennessee)
62 Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA 63
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ- ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
Key Findings f ȱ ¡¢ȱ ŘŝƖȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǼȱ ȱ ȱ energy as a region and per person than any other NCA region. f ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǻřŗƖǼȱ ȱ ȱ ǻŘŞƖǼǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ average. f ȱȱȱȱŘřƖȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱŗŞƖǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ f ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ and energy distribution infrastructure. f An improved ability to project climate change and its impacts at a more local ǰȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ enhanced strategies to improve the resiliency of energy supply systems are just a ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯ
4.1 Status and Outlook for Energy Production and Use in the Southeast ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ- ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ presented are focused on the 11 continental states. In 2010, states in the SE produced ŗśƖȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȬȱȱȱȂȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱŘŖŗŘȱȱǼǯȱ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ - ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ĴȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢DZȱȱǻęȱȱ Ǽǰȱȱǻȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱǼǰȱȱǻȱȱ Ǽǰȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǼȱǻȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱŗŗȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱDzȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱŘŖƖȱęȱȱȱ ȱŘŖƖȱȱŖƖȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ 64 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Existing Energy Resources in the Southeast The SE is home to large and varied, though unevenly concentrated, energy resource ǯȱ¡¢ȱŗŖƖȱȱŗŗƖȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱěǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱęȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱęȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŘDzȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ȱĴȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ and the number of projects needed to reach generation goals.
Coal. ȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘǰŖŞŗȱȱȱ ȱǻ¡¢ȱŗŖǯŞȱȱȱȱǼȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱŗǰŚŗşȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱřŚŞȱȱǯȱȱŝŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȂȱśŞŘȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱȱ¢ȱǻ Ǽȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŚǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ
Oil and Natural Gas. ȱŚǯŗȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŖȱ ȱŘŖŖşȱ ȱȱȱŘŖřśǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ- ȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱ¢Ĵȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȦȱȱǯȱȱȱşŝȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱŘŝȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢Ȧȱȱ¢Ĵȱ¢ȱ ǻ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŚǯŘǼȱ ȱ ęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ
Biomass. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŜǰŝŗŖȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱŘśƖȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱŜǯŘȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱřǯŗȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȬęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ¢ȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA 65
Figure 4.1 Natural gas production, 1990 to 2005, (trillion cubic feet). Source: EIA, Energy Annual Outlook 2012 Early Release
Figure 4.2 Natural gas pipelines. Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil & Gas, Natural Gas Division, Gas Transfortation nformation System. 66 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Nuclear. ȱȱŗŖŚȱȱȱȱȱǰȱřŝȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱřŜǰŚŖŖȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱȱŘŞśȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱşŖƖȱǻȱ¢ȱ - ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ
Hydro and Marine Hydrokinetic. ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱŗŚƖȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡- ¢ȱŚȱ Ĵȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱŘȱȱŚȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ŗȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱęĴȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ microscale hydroelectric systems. ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŖǯŗƖȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱřśƖȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱǻ ȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱ
Solar. Solar resources in the 11 states of the SE are not as robust as those found in the ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱśȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱę- ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȦ2ȦȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĵȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ £¢ȬȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ
Wind. ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Dzȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱęȱǰȱǰȱȱěȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŖƖȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱŘŖřŖǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗŝȱȱřŘȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ĵȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ
Geothermal. ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱȬȱĚǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱŝŝŗȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱǰȱ- ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ
¢ȱĜ¢ǯȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱśȱȱŗŘǯȱ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA 67
Case Study: Louisiana
Louisiana is an important state for both the pro- Ȭȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ¡ǰȱȱȱěȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱǰȱȱęȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱ is the only port in the country capable of accom- import terminal at Sabine is the largest of nine ȱȱȱDzȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȂȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱǰȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱȱDzȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱŘŖŖşȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȦȦȬ¢Ȭęǯǵƽ
Landscape of Energy Production, Delivery, and Use in the Southeast Electricity Production. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ŘřŞȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱřŘƖȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱřŘƖȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱȱȱŝŗƖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǰȱ 68 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘśƖǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŘřśȱ ȱȱŝŞƖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱřŖŖȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱřŜȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱŘŞȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŚǯŗǼǯ
Table 4.1 Southeastern States Generation Capacity (2009).
Fuel GW Percent
Coal 94 31.3 Petroleum 19 Ŝǯř Natural Gas 122 ŚŖǯś Nuclear řŜ 12.1 19 Ŝǯř Pumped Storage 9 3.1 Total 300 GW 100%
The SE has a balanced portfolio of resources from an operational perspective. Tra- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ĴȬǰȱȱȱ ěȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŖşȱȱ ȱȱȱŘşŘȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱŘśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱ Śşŗȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŝŝȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱŘŖŖśȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱśŖƖȱȱŚřƖȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱŘŖŖŚȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŜřƖȱȱŝşƖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŘŖŘśȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŚǯřǼȱǻ ěȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖřśȱȱŘřƖȱȱȱȱŗśƖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱŗśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǼǰȱȱǻǼǰȱȱǻǼǰȱȱ ȬȱǻǼȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ ǰȱȱȱȱ Ŝŝȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖşȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŗǼȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¡- ǰȱŘşȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱ¢ȂȱěȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱȱȱęȱ¢Ȭȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱDZȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱŞŖȱDzȱ ǰȱǰȱřŖŖȱDzȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱřŖŖȱDzȱ¡ȱǰȱ ǰȱŗŖŖȱDzȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱǰȱŗśŖȱȱǻ ȱǭȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱ ŘŖŗŗǰȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA 69
Figure 4.3 Comparison of regional thermoelectric generation capacity by North American Electric Reliability Council Region, 1995-2025.
ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱřŖŖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱŗŜȱȱȱǰȱȱřŚȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŚȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱ - ȱȱȱśŖȱȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ŘŖŗśȱǻĴȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŚŖŖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȂȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŗŖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŚǯśȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱřǯśȱȱȱȱ- ȱȬȱȱȱŘśǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ recent study estimated available resources for electricity production on the island of ȱȱǻȱŚǯŘǼȱǻ £¢ȬȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȂȱ ęȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱĜ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱ¢Ȭȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ
Electrical Transmission System. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ interconnected throughout the Eastern Interconnection. The Eastern Interconnection ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ¡ȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŞŖǰŖŖŖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŖȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 70 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Table 4.2 Estimated Renewable Energy Potential for Electricity Production in Puerto Rico.
Renewable Resource/ Electric Energy Production Estimate MWh/year if Percent of the 2006 Electric Technology* 10% of Resource is Used to Produce Electricity Energy Demand**
ŘǰşŝŝǰŖśŘ 14.4 ŗŜǰşřśǰřŜŖ ŞŘǯŘ ȱǻǼ 3,900,000 ŗŞǯş ȱȮȱ ŗǰŘŖŖǰŖŖŖȱǻǼȱŘŚǰŖŖŖǰŖŖŖȱǻǼ śǯŞȱȱŗŗŜǯś ȱȮȱ ~90,000 0.4 ȱ ¢ ŘǯŜŘŞ 0.01
* ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǯ ** ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖǰŜŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ
ŗŗŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǻȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŚǯŚǼȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱřśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱȱŘŜƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱřŝŘǰřŚŖȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱ¡¢ȱ ŞǰŞŖŖȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱŘǰŜŖŖȱȱȱȱŘŖŖȱǯȱȱȱśǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢- ȱȱȱȱŗŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŗśǰŖŖŖȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŞȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱŘşŜǰŖŖŖȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŚŖŝǰŖŖŖȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ the national transmission infrastructure in certain locations due to the geographically- ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱŗǰřŖŖȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼDzȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱŘŖŘȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻĴȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱĴȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱřǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĝȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŜȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǭȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŝǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱĝȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA 71
Figure 4.4 Regions for North American Reliability Corporations.
Electricity Assets in the Southeast. ȱȂȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱǯȱȱȱȂȱŗǰŘŜŜȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱǻŘśŖȱȱȱǼȱȱřŜƖȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱřŚȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱǻŖȱȱŘśȱǼǰȱ ȱȱȱŗśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚśȱ¢ȱ ǻȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱŘŜşȱȱȱŚȱȱ¢ȱȱ DzȱŞŖŖȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ DzȱŗǰŚŞŗȱȱȱŗŚȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱŗşŚŗȱȱŗşśŞǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŗŗȱȱȱŗşśŗȱȱŗşŝŘȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗǰśŗřȱDzȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗǰŖşŚȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗşŜŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱȬęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱřǰŘřŗȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşśŘȱȱ ŗşśşǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱŞǰřŞŞȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱĜǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȂȱ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱƸǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȃ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖśȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǻŘśƖȱȱŗşşŖǼȱȱ 72 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Ĵȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱĜǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŗǯśȱȱ¢ȱŘŖřŖȱ ǻȱŘŖŖşǼǯȄ
Case Study: DeSoto Next Generation Solar Energy Center
ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŚǰśŖŖȱȱ ȱȂȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ ȱ from the road every year for the entire life of the ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- project. ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȂȱşŖǰśŖŖȱ The project is also estimated to decrease solar panels have an annual estimated generation Ȭȱȱ¢ȱ¡¢ȱŝȱȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱŚŘǰŖŖŖȱȯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŝŝǰŖŖŖȱȱȱǯȱ serve about 3,000 homes. ȱřŖȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦǯ ȱȱȱȱśŝśǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ ǰȱ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA 73
Energy Use in the Southeast. ȱ¡¢ȱŘŝƖȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŚǯśǼǯȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖşȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻřŗƖǼȱȱȱ ǻŘŞƖǼǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ consumption, Louisiana is substantially higher than other southeastern states. Resi- ȱȱȱȱŘřƖȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱŗŞƖǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŚǯŜǼǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱ that among residential users, the per capita consumption of energy in the SE has risen ¢ȱȱȱŗşŜŖȱǻȱŚǯŝǼȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȂȱȱȱ ǻȱŚǯřǼȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱŘŞƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŚǯŞǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ
Figure 4.5 Energy consumption by National Climate Assessment (NCA) region. 74 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 4.6 Energy consumption by state in the Southeast.
4.2 Impact of Climate Change on Energy Supply and Demand in the Southeast Climate change is of concern for energy services in the SE due to the potential for ȱĴȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ as the potential impacts on electricity generating capacity and energy distribution ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼDZ ȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǵ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ on energy supply institutions. In general, the changes imply increased de- ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA 75
Figure 4.7 Per capita energy use by National Climate Assessment (NCA) region.
ȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǵ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǻǼȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ ȱȦȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱǻǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱĜǰȱȱǻǼȱ ȱȱ- ȱěȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǵ The research evidence ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱ management in the investment behavior of some energy institutions, and it is ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǭȱȱȱ energy resource and technology choices. In addition, climate change can be ¡ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱǯǯȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱ¢ȱ¢ǯ 76 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱ issues is limited, including at the regional level, although there is a broad con- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱǯȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ chapter 2 of this report provides additional detail about historical climate trends in the ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱ
Climate Impacts on Energy Demand ȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ
Table 4.3 Energy Consumption Estimates for Petroleum Energy Sources in Physical Units, 2009.
MILLION BARRELS Distillate Motor Residual Jet Fuela LPGb Otherd Total Fuel Oil Gasolinec Fuel Oil FUEL PETROLEUM ETHANOLe Alabama 24.4 ŗǯŝ řǯŝ ŜŘǯŞ 0.9 ŗŜǯŗ ŗŖşǯŝ ŘǯŜ 22 ŖǯŞ 2.9 řŚǯŞ 0.1 4.1 ŜŚǯŞ ŗǯŝ ŚŜǯŚ řŗǯś śǯś ŘŖŖǯŜ ŗřǯŞ 13 řŗŖǯŞ ŗŝ ¢ Řŝǯŝ şǯŞ ŞǯŜ śřǯŚ 0.1 ŘśǯŜ ŗŘśǯř 4.9 Louisiana řŘǯŝ ŗŜǯŗ śŞǯś śŚǯŝ ŗŜǯŚ ŞŜǯŘ ŘŜŚǯŜ 3.1 Mississippi 19.9 4.9 3.4 řŝǯŜ ŖǯŞ 9.4 ŝśǯş 2 North Carolina 31.3 1.9 12.2 ŗŖśǯş Řǯŝ 11.1 ŗŜś 9 South Carolina 19 1.1 Řǯŝ ŜśǯŜ 2.9 ŗŘǯś ŗŖřǯŝ śǯŚ Tennessee ŘśǯŘ 11.2 3.3 ŝśǯŚ ǻǼ ŘŞǯŜ ŗŚřǯŞ ŝǯŜ 34.3 ŗśǯŝ śǯŜ şŚǯś 3 ŝǯŗ ŗŜŖǯř ŞǯŜ Southeast 321.1 112.7 111.8 903.1 48 223.1 1720 71.8 ȱ 1325.3 508.5 748.7 3283.7 186.6 798.7 6851.6 262.8 Southeast as a % of 24 22 15 28 26 28 25 27 U.S. Total
aȱȱ ȱȬ¢ȱȱȱ¢DzȱȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȃȱȄ bȱȱęȱȱ cȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ dȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱŗŜȱȱȱ e Includes denaturant ȱ ǰȱǻǼȱƽȱȱȱȱŖǯŖśǯ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA 77
Figure 4.8 Annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by National Climate Assessment (NCA) region (millions). Source: Federal Highway Administration, 2009 Highway Statistics Series.
ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ - ȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǼȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱŘŖŖŜȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŘśȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬ ȱȱǻȱŚǯşȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯ ȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ changes may not be large, they may contribute to increases in regional energy demands. Climate-related demographic shifts are another consideration for energy needs in ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱĴȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ 78 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 4.9 (a) The nine US Census divisions and projected cumulative (2003-2025) changes in primary heating energy, cooling energy, and net changes, as departures from the reference case, for (b) the low 'T (change in temperature) scenario and (c) the high 'T (change in temperature) scenario. The Census divisions are: (1) New England; (2) Middle Atlantic; (3) East North Central; (4) West North Central; (5) South Atlantic; (6) East South Central; (7) West South Central; (8) Mountain; and (9) Pacific contiguous, Alaska and Hawaii, Pacific noncontiguous. (Note: read energy graphs b and c in the order of key—first bar is cooling, second bar is heating, and third bar is net change—for each region.) ©2006 American Geophysical Union; reproduced by permission of the American Geophysical Union. Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA 79
Case Study: Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant
ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǞśŖȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŗşŝŚǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗȱȱ Ĵȱȱ ǯȱ during high river temperatures. ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱĚ ȱ conditions in order to maintain the plant dis- ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦĴȦȦȦŗŗȬŚȬȱŘŖŗŖȏ ȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱ ȏęǯȱ ¡ǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ
Climate Impacts on Energy Production and Distribution Critical SE regional infrastructure, such as energy, transportation, and hospitals, al- ¢ȱ¡ȱȱěȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱĚǰȱǰȱȱȱ temperatures, and tornados. Damage to these assets can disrupt services from days to months. ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ¢ȯȱ- ȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȬȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱ- ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ locations. ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖśȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱŚǯŗŖȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱTo put these numbers into a national perspec- ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱşśƖȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱŘŝƖȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ production could not be rapidly replaced by imports since major oil import terminals ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱřŘƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱřŘȱę- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŜƖȱȱȱęȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŝƖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŖŜǼǯ 80 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 4.10 Time history of offshore oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico following Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. Katrina made landfall on day 1 and Rita on about day 28.
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱDzȱǻǼȱȱǰȱ- larly during summer months, that cause electricity demands to rise over periods that ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱ¢DzȱǻǼȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱǻȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǼDzȱȱǻǼȱȱěȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ
Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use: Possible Cascading Impacts Climate change may have important indirect implications for energy supply and use. ȱěȱȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻ- ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡. All agricultural crops have an optimum range of environmental conditions rela- ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA 81
ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱěȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ irrigation pumps. ę¢ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱǰȱ£ǰȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱęȱ energy cost. Periods of drought may necessitate additional irrigation further increasing electric and diesel pump loads. ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǻĴȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ based on the magnitude of the temperature increase, animal feed prices, and the cost ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱŚŖǚȱȱŝśǚǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱĴȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱŗŗȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱǞŗŞŗȱǰȱ ȱǞŘŞǯŜȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǞŚŞȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ The important connection of tourism to energy is illustrated by vacation rentals ȱȱŘŖŖŝȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǞŘŚǯřȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ŘŘƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŞƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȬ ȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱDZȱŘŘƖȱȱ ǰȱŝƖȱȱȱȱȱśƖȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŘǰŗşŜǰȱ ȱȱŜƖȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěǯȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ greenhouse emissions, are important considerations for climate change issues and the tourism sector in the SE.
4.3 Key Issues and Uncertainties
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ¢ȱ use, and enhanced strategies to improve the resiliency of energy supply systems are ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯ 82 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
4.4 References
ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱŘŝǰȱŘŖŖŞDzȱȱȱŗŗǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢ȦȦȦ- echange.pdf ȱǻȱ¢ȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱŘŖŖşȱȱȱȱ- ȂȱǰȱŗřŘȬŗřşǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȬȦ¢ȱ ǰȱǯȱȃǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȄǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱśǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦ ¢ǯ¡ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱDZȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱ DZȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢DZȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦ¢Ȧ Ȧ śŞǯ Ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱȂǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱ variability and change for the southeastern ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱŗřŝȬŗŜŚǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ ȱȱȱǯ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ¢ȦȦŖśǯ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȱ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱDZȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡DZȱȬŘŖŖŚȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦ Ȧ Ȧ ȦśȦśŗŜŚǯ ȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǭȱȱ¢ȱǯȱĴǰȱDZȱȱ¢ǯ ĴDZȦȦ ǯȬ¢ǯȦȦ ȬȬ¢Ȭ Ȭǯ ȱǻȱȱ ǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱĚȱȱǯȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŗȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱŗŖǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦƖŘŖȦŘŖŗŗȬŖŞȬŗŖȬęȬ- tAnnouncementsSumm.pdf ȱǻ¢ȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŗDZȱȱȱȱ 2035ǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦ ŗŗȦȦŖřŞřǻŘŖŗŗǼǯ ǯȱǻ¢ȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱęȱŘŖŖşǯȱǰȱDZȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢ȦȦŗŗȦŘŖŖşǯȱ ǯȱǻ¢ȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ¡DZȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱǻȱŗŘȦŗŚȦŗŗǼȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦ¢¡Ȧ¡ǯǵƽȏǛŘȱ ǯȱǻ¢ȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱ- ǼǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȱ ǯȱǻ¢ȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǯǯȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǯȱǰȱDZȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ- ȦȦȦǯ ǯȱǻ¢ȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȦǯȱ ǯȱǻ¢ȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ¡DZȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢¡Ȧ¡ǯ ǵƽȏȱ Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA 83
ǯȱǻ¢ȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǯǯȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱDzȱȱřǯȱȱȱȱ¢DZȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ŘŖŖŞȬŘŖŗŖǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȦȏřǯ ǯȱǻ¢ȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯǯȱȱ ȱȯȱ ȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȏȦȏȦ¢ȏȦȦ ¡ǯȱ ǯȱǻ¢ȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱŗǯŗřǯǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱǻǼȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȬȬȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦǯ ȦȦ¢- Ȧ¢ǯȱ ǯȱǻ¢ȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱŘŖŗŘȱȱ¢ȱDZȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȏǯǯ ǯȱǻ¢ȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǻǼǯȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦȦȦǵƽ ǯȱǻ¢ȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱŘŖŖşǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯ ȦȦȦȦǯǵęƽȏȦȏȦȏȏǯȱ Energy Star Program. 2011. DZȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱ. ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ¢ǯȦȦ- ȦȦȏȦ ǯȱ ȱǻȱ ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ¢ȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯĢ ǯǯȦ¢ȦȦŘŖŖşȦȱ ȱǻȱ ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȂȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦȦǯǵƽȱ ȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ Ȧǯ¡ǵƽşŖŜŚ ȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗȱDzȱȱ¢ȱ Ǽǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ DZȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱŚŝȱǻŘǼDZȱŘşǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŘŖŖşȦȦ ȏŚŝȏŘşǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦŖŜŖśŗŞ ǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȬȬȱ¢ȱȱȱDZȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ǰȱDZȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ŗǯǯ- ¢ǯȦȦȦŚŖŜŜśǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ £ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴǰȱřřǰȱŗŝŝŖřDzȱ DZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŜ ŖŘŜŜśŘ ǰȱǯȱȃȱȱȱȱ Ȃȱȱȱ ȱȄǰȱȱȱ , Septem- ȱŘŜǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯę ǯȦ ȦȦŘŘŖŚşşȦŚȬȬȬȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȬȬ Ȭ ěǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŘśȱ¢ȱ- ȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦ ȦȦŜřŜȏȏŘŖŖŚǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ Ȃȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱ- DZȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ DZȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦęȦȦęȦȏ ǯȱȱ 84 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱ ȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȏŗŗǯŖŗǯŘŝǯ £¢Ȭǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱȬǰȱǯȱȂȬǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ- DZȱȱȱȂȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ ǰȱDZȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȏȏȏǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱřŜȱǻşǼDZȱřŘśŘȬřŘŜśǯȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȦ ŖřŖŗŚŘŗśŖŞŖŖŘřŗŖȱ ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱǯǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱDZȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱDZȱ- ȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ¢ǯȦȦśŘřŜŖǯȱ Long, P. and A. Naar. 2011. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱDZȱȱęȱ. Center ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ- ¢ǯȱȱȱǯȱǯȱŗȬř ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢DZȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱDZȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯ ĴDZȦȦǯǯȦȦȦȦȬŗŚŝŗǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ- ȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ¢ǯǯȦ- ȦȦȏ ȏȏǯ ȱǻȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱĜȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱ Energy. ¢ DZȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ¢ŖŚȦřŚşŗŜǯȱ ǯȱǻȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦ ȏȏȏȬǯ ǯȱǻȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱŘŖƖȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŘŖřŖDZȱ ȱ ȱ¢Ȃȱȱȱǯǯȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯŘŖ ǯȦŘŖȏ ȏ¢ȏȏŖŞǯ ǯȱǻȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱŘŖŖşȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȏ¢ȦȏȏȦȦŚŞŘŗŘǯ ǯȱǻȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢Ǽǯȱȃǯǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȄǰȱȱ ǰȱȱŗǰȱŘŖŗŖǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ Ȧ ȦŘŖŗŖȦŞŗŝǯ ǯȱǻȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢- ȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȱ ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱ¢ȱ- mentǯȱǰȱ DZȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦęȦŘŖŗŖƖŘŖǯ ȱǭȱȱȱǯȱȃȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱĚȄǰȱ ȱǭȱǰȱȱŜǰȱ 2011. Nuclear Energy Institute. 2011. ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ Ȧ¢Ȧě¢ȦȦ ¢Ȧȱ ĴǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱŘŖŘȬȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ¢ǯȦȦ ǯ¡ǵƽŘŖśŜȱ ȱǻȱȱ¢ȱěȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱŘǯȱȱȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦ and ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯ- ǯȦȏ ǯǵȏƽŜş Energy Production, Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Southeast USA 85
ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱ ǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱDZȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢ȦȦŚȬŝȦęȬȦŚȬ ŝȬęȬǯ ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱDZȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦ¢ŗŖȦŚśŞŞşǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱ. ȱ ǰȱDZȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ¢ŗŗȦśŘřŜŖǯ ȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯŗǯȦȦ ǯ¡ȱ Southern Company. 2012. ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦ Ȧǯȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱȃȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȄǰȱȱȱ - ǰȱ ȱŗŚǰȱŘŖŗŗǯ ȱǻȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ¡ǰȱDZȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ Ȧ ȏǯ ǯȱǻȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ ǯȱ ¡ǰȱDZȱȱ¢ȱ- ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦǯȦ Ȧȏǯ ǯȱǻȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯȱ ¡ǰȱDZȱȱ¢ȱ- ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ Ȧ ȏǯ ȱȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱ- ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦĴȦȦȦ Ȧęǯ ȱǯȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯ ȦȦȬȦǯǛȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯȦȦǯǯȱ ȱŗŖǰȱŘŖŗŖǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ£ǰȱǯ ǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦ¢ȦȦŚȬśȦęȬȦŚȬśȬęȬǯ ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦ Chapter 5
Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA
LEAD AUTHOR Dale Quattrochi ([email protected]; NASA, Earth Science Office, Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Alabama)
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Kirstin Dow (Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments; Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina) Jeff Gaffney (Chair, Department of Chemistry, University of Arkansas at Little Rock, Little Rock, Arkansas) Pat Long (Director, Center for Sustainable Tourism, East Carolina University, Greenville, North Carolina) Steve McNulty (US Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) Marshall Shepherd (Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Scott Shuford (Development Services Department, City of Fayetteville, North Carolina) Brian Stone (School of City and Regional Planning, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia)
86 Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA 87
ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱĚ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęǯȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱĜǰȱǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱǼǰȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ ǰȱǼǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ
Key Findings f ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǼDzȱȱȱȱȱěǰȱǰȱȱĚǰȱȱȬ ȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȬȱ¢ǰȱ migration, the coastal environment, and even have implications on national security. f Development of adaptation plans to maintain built environment infrastructure ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ and to ensure built environment sustainability. f ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢- ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭ¢Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- able and resilient. f ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯ
5.1 Background
ȱȱǰȱȱȃȱȄȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ transformed or imprinted non-natural features across the landscape. The impact of ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ that singly could be minor, but together could have a synergistic set of impacts that are ęǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱ have a collective impact on the overall urban ecosystems for cities in the region. An ȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǻŗǼȱȱȱǰȱǻŘǼȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǻřǼȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ 88 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȬȱ- ǼDzȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱǰȱȱǼDzȱȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱǼDzȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȦǼDzȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ change may impact the built environment via alteration of inputs and outputs to the ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ throughout the various chapters in this report. Moreover, a forthcoming National Cli- ȱȱǻǼȱȱǰȱǯǯȱȱȱȱDZȱȱ - ǰȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱřǰȱȱřǯŜǼǯȱ This section of the technical report focuses on the potential impacts that a changing ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱDZȱȱ¢DzȱȱȱȱȱěDzȱDzȱȱĚDzȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȬ ȱȱDzȱDzȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ- ȱDzȱȱȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱęȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȦȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŗřǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ods for adapting to, or mitigating, these impacts. Establishment of publically accessible ǰȱǰȱȱȂȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ǰȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱ- governmental entitites, and the interested general public. This information must also be ¢ȱȱȱ£ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ print and broadcast media. Additionally, there is an emerging industry of communica- ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ use relational databases similar to climate indicators that could be used to reach broad ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȬŗŘȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȃȄȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢- ical parameters that govern the land-atmosphere interface over urban areas. In turn, this may have broader impacts on atmospheric phenomena and regional interactions Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA 89
ȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȬǰȱȱȱǻȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱDZȱǻŗǼȱȱȱȱ- ¢DzȱǻŘǼȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ǼȱěDzȱȱǻřǼȱ changes in precipitation, including increases or decreases in amount or intensity. ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ focused on the Atlanta, GA, metropolitan area only because several contributors to this ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȦȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱDZȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ , and Climate Change and ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǯ
5.2 Air Quality
ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ¢ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻŗǼȱěȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱDzȱǻŘǼȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱDzȱǻřǼȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱDzȱȱǻŚǼȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱŗşşśǰȱ ȱȱ- ȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗȱȱŗŖȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ
ȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ£ȱǻ3Ǽǰȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ
ȱ ȱ¡ȱǻ¡ǼȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǻȱśǯŗǼǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǯȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȬȱ3ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ3 levels ¢¢ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ several months. ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ pollution. ȱ ȱȱ ȱŘǯśȱȱŗŖȱȱǻΐǼ are referred 90 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȃǯȄȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱStudies il- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ environments by Ƹ0.1-1 µg m-3ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǼǯ
Figure 5.1 Ozone formation in the urban atmosphere (Quattrochi et al. 2006).
5.3 The Urban Heat Island Effect
ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŗşŞŗǼǯȱȱȱ ęȱěȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱě- ȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱŘǚȱȱřǚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŗşŞŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşşǼȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯ ȱ£ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ Ǽǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA 91
ŗşŞŗǰȱȱŘŖŖŘǰȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǰȱ ȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ to the land and atmosphere interactions that occur over cities. These include surface geometry, surface thermal properties, surface conditions, anthropogenic heat, and the ȱȱěȱǻȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ǻȱŗşŝřǰȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŚǰȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱǻ ěȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱśŖȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱŗřȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşśŖȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŖǯřŗǚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŖǯŗŘǚȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱ£ȱ¢ȱ ěȱȱĴȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱěȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱ due primarily to increased heat trapped in the land-atmosphere boundary layer by ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ of gases are a function of increased energy use, such as air conditioning and motor ȱĜȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱȬȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȮȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŚǼǯ 92 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ combinations of tree planting and vegetative cover, albedo enhancement, and reduc- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗǚȱȱȱ ȱŜǚȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ¢ȱȱǯŘŖŖşǰȱ£ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱĜȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱěǯȱȱĚ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ - ȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ¢ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱȱǰȱȱ direct cooling of the ambient air through vegetation and albedo enhancement carries ęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȬȱĴǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǰȱ ǰȱȱĵȱŗşşşǼǯȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ- tion by as much as 10%, suggesting the potential for emission reductions and surface ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ
5.4 Effects on Precipitation
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱǰȱȱȃȱȱěȄȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ literature is fairly conclusive on urban land cover and pollution altering components of ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱěǯȱ ȱ- ǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ discussed in Ashley et al. 2012, Shepherd et al. 2011, Niyogi et al. 2011, Shepherd et al. ŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯ ¢ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŘǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ high-resolution radar to study precipitation in the cities and adjacent control regions ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗŖȬ¢ȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱ- ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱśǯŘȱȱȱȂȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ of aerosols in the precipitation processes. Aerosols may enhance or suppress convec- ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱȱ Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA 93
Figure 5.2 Composite radar analysis for Atlanta, GA: (a) The total number of days t 40 dBZ and (b) the total number of 5-minute occurrences t 40 dBZ for each 2-km grid cell versus distance from city center in the Atlanta domain for the 10-year, June through August. National Land Cover Database urban delineated cells are colored red/grey, whereas nonurban cells are blue/black. (Ashley et al. 2012).
ȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱ Ěȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěDZȱǻŗǼȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱǻŘǼȱȱȱ ȱȬȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱǻřǼȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǻŚǼȱȬ¢ȱ- ęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱěǰȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- lems in climatology, meteorology, and hydrology. Precipitation issues in a built, urban 94 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱ- ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ
Urban Flooding ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǻȱśǯřǼǯȱ ȱȱĚȱȱ been noted in several global regions including SE cities such as Atlanta and Nashville. ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ¢ȱȬȱĚȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢- ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȬȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱĚȱȱŘŖŖşȱǻȱśǯŚǼȱȱȱȬȱ¢Ȭ- ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱǯȱ The conversion of natural landscapes to built, urban environments changes vari- ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱěǰȱęǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱĚǰȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ response in Atlanta in a similar manner observed in other urban locations. Reynolds et ǯȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢- ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ¢Ȭȱ- ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȦȱ¢Ǽȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ¢- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ- scapes, population density, and climate predictions in order for mitigation and adapta- tion plans to be successful. ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱĚ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- phological parameters are represented in such models using various technologies, such Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA 95
Figure 5.3 Difference (2025 Current Land Cover) in simulated rainfall amount for a typical case day in Houston, Texas. Black outline represents 2025 urban land cover. Rainfall amounts illustrated in the image correspond to the bar graph on the right hand side of the figure (Shepherd et al. 2010a).
Figure 5.4 Trends in the extreme precipitation index for the southeastern USA. Red dotted line is 1 day, 1 in 5-year event. Blue line is 5-day, 1 in 5-year event Kunkel et al. 2013). 96 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
as remote sensing, aerial photography, high-resolution optical imagery, and LIDAR. ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱ uncertainties related to input precipitation data, calibration errors, assumptions and £ǰȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱ
5.5 Effects on the Wild Land-Urban Interface (WUI)
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ- tation and mitigation strategies, but the implementation of these plans could be sig- ę¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ęȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǼǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǼȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱ - eral circulation models universally project increasing air temperature and increases or ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŚŖƖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȃ ȱȄȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ¡ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱ ȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱěȱĚ ȱȱȱ Ĵȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱǻȱŗşşşǰȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱĴǰȱ¡ȱ ȱǰȱȱęǯȱȱȱ Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA 97
ǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŘǰȱ£ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯ ȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ǯȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯ
5.6 Vulnerability and Risks to Tourism
ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱĴǰȱ- ment, events, travel trade, tourism services, and adventure and outdoor recreation. In ȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŝśŞǯŝȱȱȱȱ¡- ǰȱǞŗŞŞǯŚȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱŝǯŚȱȱǰȱǞŗŗŝǯŜȱȱ ȱȬȱ¡ȱǰȱȱǞřŗǯŝȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ travelers paid a total of $31.3 billion to domestic air carriers on international passenger ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŗřŚǯŚȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǞŗŞŗȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǞŘŞǯŜȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱŘǯŖŜȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǞŚŞȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱĚǰȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¡- ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱǻ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǻĴȱȱ¡ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ- ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱęȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱĚǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱęȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ¢ǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȯȱȱȱǻȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱĴȱȱ¡ȱǻŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ tourism operators in many destinations. Many tourism activities are heavily dependent 98 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱ£ǯȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱ¡ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ
Vacation and Second Homes ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ found in coastal or mountain environments that are highly desirable places to live and ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱǯȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗǯŚȱ ȱȱȱȱȃǰȱȱȱȱȄȱ¢ȱȱȱ ŗŗȬȱȱǰȱȱȱȱŚƖȱȱȱȱȱǻ£ȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱconstruction and related services, enhanced retail trade, real estate services, and leisure and hospitality ȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ- ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŝŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱŗŘȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǞŗŘȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȬȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱĚDzȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱDzȱ¢ȱȱȱ Dzȱȱȱȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŗȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱěȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱěȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŖşȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŘŚǯřȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱŘŘƖȱȱȱȱȱȱŞƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ- ȱřŚƖȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŚřƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘŖŖśȬŘŖŖŜǼǯ ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA 99
ȱȱȱȱDzȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱǰȱȱDzȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱDzȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱǯȱȱ- search is needed to investigate adaptation and mitigation strategies for the tourism in- dustry. Research might include developing databases for the tourism industry to assess ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱDzȱȱȱȱȱȱ- Dzȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱDzȱȱ¢£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
5.7 Impacts on Energy, Poverty, and Socioeconomic Vulnerability ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱşŖǚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ǯȱǻȱȱȱȱę£ȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱŘǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱ ȱŗşŝŗȱȱŘŖŖŖȱȱ ȱŘŖŚŗȱȱŘŖŝŖȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŚŚƖȱȱŚşƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱşŝƖȱȱŘřŚƖȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱşśǚȱȱŗřŘƖȱȱśŝśƖȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŗŖŖǚȱ ȱǻȱŘǯŘȱȱȱŘǼǯ Tȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŗŘƖȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱǻ ȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱşŞƖȱȱȱ overall have means to cool their home including central and room air conditioning, and ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱ Ȭȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱŗŖƖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱŗśŖȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱŗŖƖȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱęȱȱǰȱȱŚƖȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ- ȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱśǯŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŗŗǯśȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱśǯŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŜŖȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱ ŘǯŗŘǰȱȱŘǼǯȱ 100 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Table 5.1 Households in the Southeastern United States Eligible for Energy Assistance.
Ȭ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşDZȱ¡ȱDZȱ ȱȱ ȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱŝśȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ1,2 Ȭȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻǼȱŘŖŖŝȬŘŖŖş LIHEAP eligible households by vulnerability category Total number of LIHEAP At least one At Least one LIHEAP eligible eligible house- At least one child less than person with a households with no holds 3,4 person 60+ 6 years old disability 5 vulnerable members Alabama ŝřŖǰŞşŞ ŘŝŖǰŜŜş ŗŘŜǰşşŘ ŗŖŝǰşŗŗ ŘŝŖǰŞśŘ ŚŖşǰşŘŜ ŗśŘǰśŝś ŞŖǰŞŘŘ śşǰŘŘś ŗŚŗǰśŗś ŘǰśŜŘǰşŝŗ ŗǰŖşşǰŚŝŚ ŚŗśǰŘŞŚ ŘŖşǰŗŝŝ şśŗǰŝŚś Georgia ŗǰřŖŞǰŖşŖ ŚŘŘǰŜŚŚ ŘŝŝǰŞśř ŗřŘǰŝŖş śŚŘǰŚŚŖ ¢ ŜŝśǰşřŘ ŘŚŞǰŖřř ŗŘśǰŘśŜ ŗŘŗǰŜŚŘ ŘŘŝǰŖŜŞ Louisiana ŜŚşǰřŞś ŘřŚǰŘśŚ ŗŘŘǰŖśŜ ŞŚǰŖŚŜ ŘŚŝǰŞřŞ Mississippi ŚřŝǰŘŘş ŗŜŖǰřŚŘ ŞśǰŜŚŚ ŜşǰŝřŖ ŗśřǰŘŚŖ Missouri ŞřşǰŚśř řŗŖǰŜŗŝ ŗśŘǰşřŝ 100,394 řŗřǰśŝś North Carolina 1,304,413 ŚŜŗǰŘŚŞ ŘśřǰŗŘŖ ŗřŜǰŚřŚ śŗřǰŝŘŝ South Carolina ŜŘşǰŝŘŘ ŘřŚǰŞŞŘ ŗŗŜǰŝŗř ŝŖǰŝŖŜ ŘŚŖǰŞşŖ Tennessee 914,211 řřşǰŜŝř ŗŜŞǰşŞŜ ŗŗŝǰŘŞŞ 341,212 ŗǰŖŘśǰŖŝŞ řŝŞǰŘşŝ ŗŞŜǰşŗŖ şŞǰśŝŚ ŚŖŜǰşŝŚ SE states total ŗŗǰŚŞŝǰřŖŞ ŚǰřŗŘǰŝŖŞ ŘǰŗŗŘǰśŝř ŗǰřŖŝǰŞřŜ ŚǰřśŗǰŖŝŜ All States ŚŗǰŝŜŝǰřŝŖ ŗśǰřŝşǰśŘŘ ŝǰşşŖǰşŖś ŚǰŗŞŝǰŚŗŜ ŗŜǰŗśśǰśŖś
ŘŝǯśƖ ŘŞǯŖƖ ŘŜǯŚƖ 31.2% ŘŜǯşƖ
ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȃȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȄȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ 1ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȃȱȄȱȱȱȱǯ 2ȱȱȱȱŝśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗśŖƖȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȃȱǰȄȱŝśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗśŖƖȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ lines. 3ȱȱȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŗřǰŗŖŚǰŖŝŚǯ 4 A household can be counted under more than one vulnerability category. śȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝȬŘŖŖşȱȱȱęǯȱ ȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗśȱȱŜŚȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬ ȱȱȱŗşȱȱŜŗȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA 101
5.8 Impacts on National Security ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱĴȱȱȱ- ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ security issues that arise in a stressed climate system. These security issues include, for ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- tinue to monitor the implications, study climate changes carefully, and plan mitigation and adaptation strategies.
5.9 Impacts on Urban Migration
ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱĴȱ ȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ to the Sunbelt during the past several decades as many people, particularly retirees, ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŗşŝŜǰȱ ȱŗşŞŖǼǯȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ ȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱ cases migration may be due to physical conditions such as property inundation due to Ȭȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ǰȱǰȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ Ěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ plants, transmission lines, pump stations, and other infrastructure that are located in ȱȱȱĚǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȯȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱĜȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜǯ 102 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱŚŜǰŖŖŖȱŶȱǻŗŝǰŝŜŖȱ2Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŗǯśȱǯȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǼȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŚǰŝşśǰŖŖŖȱȱ¡ȱȱȱĚȱ¢ȱŘŖŝŖǰȱȱȱȱȱ Ȃȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱĚȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱǰȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ- ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǯȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱěǯȱ
5.10 Impacts on Coastal Environments
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ possible impacts climate change could have on coastal cities in the region. These im- ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘǼǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǻȱŘǰȱȱŘǯřǯŘǼǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘǰȱȱ ŘǯřǯŞǼǯȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱřǰȱŚǰȱ ŜǰȱȱŗřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱDZȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǻȱřǰȱȱřǯŝǼǯ
5.11 Summary of Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ and regional, direct and indirect and could potentially range from mild to severe. These ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱDzȱȱ¡- ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱ¢¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ and business infrastructure, land use, and population. Moreover, the built environ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱǼȱ Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA 103
ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǼȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ęȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱĚǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- cline in tourism, vulnerability of energy supplies, and challenges to built infrastructure ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱǼǰȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Such actions could create opportunities for reduced energy consumption, reduced ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱǼȱȱȱ ȱěǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱěǰȱȱǯȱ The discussions should embrace many aspects of the issues including the long-term ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ for implementation
5.12 References
ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ strategies. ¢ȱ¢ȱřřȱǻŜǼDZȱŝŘŗȬŝśŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱĵǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱŘŚȱǻśǼDZȱřşŗȬŚŖŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱĵǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱŝŖȱǻřǼDZȱŘşśȬřŗŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱŗŗřȱǻŘǼDZȱŚŞŗȬŚşŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- turbance from herbivores and pathogens. ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŜŘȱǻřǼDZȱŘŜřȬŘŞŜǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱ ¢ȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ǰȱǰȱ . ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱ ǯȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ǯȱǰȱǰȱşŗǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱ¡ǯȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱǰȱȱȱ and climate change. 319. Ĵȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ- tional Academies Press. 104 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ¢ȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ- ęȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯ ȦȦȬȦȏȏȏȏŗŘǯŗřǯŖŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱǰȱ ǰȱȱDZȱ ȱȱǯȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱşŘȱǻřǼDZȱřŜŗȬřŜřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȱȱǰȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǯȱǰȱ ȱȱDZȱȱ science and practice. Publication of the Center for Sustainable Tourism, Division of Research ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ¢DZȱ ǰȱǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱěǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱ Climate change and forest disturbances. ȱśŗȱǻşǼDZȱŝŘřȬŝřŚǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱǰȱDZȱĜȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦśśŘŝŜŖǯ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǻ- ǼǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦȦȦȦȦȦȦȦ- man%20Paper.pdf ȱǻȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦ ǯǯȱ ȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯǯȦȦ¡ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱřŗDZȱŘŖȬŚŘǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǼȱŗşşŘȮŘŖŖŗȱȱȱȱęȱDZȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȬȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦǯǯȦȦŘŖŖŞȦŗřŝşȦȦ ŘŖŖŞȬŗřŝşǯǯȱ ȱ ǯǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱ ȱȯȱȱȱȱ¡¢ǯȱȱȱŗDZȱřŘŗȬřŚşǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱǻ¢ǼǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ Ȧ¢ȬȦȬȬǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşŞŖǯȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŘŝȬŘřŝǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦŘŖŖśȦŖşŗŘȦŖŗŖŗȬǯǯ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȦ- ȱǼǯȱȱȱȱŗȱǻȱȱȱřǼDZȱŘŚŝȬŘŝŚǯȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȦŗŞŝŞŖŘşŜŗŖŖŖŖŗŝŚǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ DZȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŘŞǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦŖşŖŖŜŖǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ¢ȱȱĚȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ spatial variability in the urban heat island. ȱȱȱ¢ȱşśȱǻřȬŚǼDZȱřşŝȬŚŖŜǯ Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA 105
ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǯȱȱȱ 144 ǻŗȬřǼDZȱŗşşȬŘŗşǯȱ ěǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŗŗŚśŖŚȬśŗřǯȱ ȱǻ ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝDZȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ- ǰȱŚřȱǻŗǼDZȱśŗȬŜřǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȮ- ȱŗŗřǰȱŘŚşŖDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŞ ŖŗŖŘŝŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱŗŞ ǻŗŖǼDZȱŗśśŗȬŗśŜśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȬȬȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȬȱȱȬ- tioning. ȱ¢ȱŞřȱǻŜǼDZȱŜŚşȬŜŜŞǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱŘŖŗřDZȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱǯȱȱŘDZȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱŗŚŘȬŘǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŗşŞŗǯȱȱȱǯȱ ȱDZȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱȱȱȱȱĴǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǻĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦěȦȦ ȏŘŖŗŗȏ ęǯǼ ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȂȱȱ¡ȱǯȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦŘŖŖşȦŗŗȦŖŘȦ¡ȬȬ Ȭ¢ȬȬȬ¡Ȭǯǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ change and pollution and associated aerosols. ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ŗŗȱǻřǼDZȱŞŝŚŝȬŞŝŝŜǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱ ǯ 2009. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢DZȱȱ- ȱǯȱ ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ In ȱȱȱȱ¢ȬȬȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱǰȱǯȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱŜŖŝȬŜřřǯȱDZȱȱ Ƹȱȱǯǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ěǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ Area. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŚŞȱǻŘǼDZȱŗşşȬŘŗŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱŞŝȱǻŘŚǼDZȱŘřřȬŘŚŚǯ £ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱDZȱŘŖŗŖDZȱŘŖŗŖȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ ȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŘŖŗŖȦȦŘŖŗŖȬŖŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ DZȱęȱȱȂȱȱȱ loads under a changing climate. ȱȱŗśŞȱǻŜǼDZȱŘŖśřȬŘŖśŞǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ 21st century. ȱřŖśȱǻśŜŞŜǼDZȱşşŚȬşşŝǯ 106 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ southern California. ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱşȱǻŗŗǼDZȱřŝŚśȬřŝśŚǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱ DZȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱŗŚȱǻŗǼDZȱśȬŗŖǯȱĴDZȦȦǯȦ ȦǵƸǭ ƽǯȦŗŚǭƽŜǭŞƽǭƽ ȱǻȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱǰȱȂȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ Ĵǰȱ ǯȱȬǰȱ ǯȱǰǯȱ ȬǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡- DZȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱŗǰȱȱȱ ĴDZȦȦ¡ǯǯȦŗŖǯŗŝŞŝȦŖŗŗŝŜŜŚŞŞŘŖŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ ęȱȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ the Indianapolis urban region. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱśŖȱǻśǼDZȱŗŗŘşȬŗŗŚŚǯ ȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱDZȱȱȱǰȱȱśǯȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱŘŞȬŘşǰȱŘŖŗŗǰȱǰȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ĚȱĚȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢¢ȱŞȱǻŗǼDZȱŞŞȬŗŖŗǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşŝřǯȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŝȱŝŜşȬŝŝşǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşŞŝǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǯȱDZȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱȬǰȱǯȱ ¤ǰȱǯǯǯȱ ǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱřřȱǻŘŚȬŘśǼDZȱřşŗşȬřşřŖǯ ȱȱŘŖŖśȮŘŖŖŜǯȱŘŖŖśȮŘŖŖŜȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȮȱ·ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢- ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱŚŗşȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱǭȱ ¢ȱŚŜǰȱŜşŜȮŝŖřǯ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱDZȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱȱ Media, LLC. ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢- ȱDZȱ ȱȱȱȱĴǵȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŝȱǻřǼDZȱşŜśȬşŝśǯ Ĵǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȦȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǯȱ ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱęȱ on urban hydrologic response. In ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰ ȱŗŜǰȱed. ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱşşȬŗŘŘǯȱ ǰȱȱDZȱ ȱ ǻȱ ¢ȱ Ǽǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȂ ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱDZȱ ȱ ȱȱěȱǵȱȱřŘŗȱǻśŞşŚǼDZȱŗřŖşȬŗřŗřǯ £ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢Ȃȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱDZȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Development Authority. £ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ecosystems. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ103 ǻřśǼDZȱŗřŗŗŜȬŗřŗŘŖǯ Climate Interactions with the Built Environment in the Southeast USA 107
Ĵǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ £ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱĴDZȦȦǯ- ǯȦȦȦęȦȦ ř ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱǰȱ variability over the last millennium, and the potential for future hydroclimate change. - ȱȱȱŘŘȱǻŗşǼDZȱśŖŘŗȬśŖŚśǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǻĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȬ Ȧ ȬȬȬ ȬȬȬȬǼǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ- ȱDZȱȱȱȱřŝȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŞŚȬřŖŚǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ£DZȱ ȱȱǰȱ- cipitation, and lightning. In ȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǰȱ ŗȬŘŝǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ Soil Science Society of America. ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¡ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱşŘȱǻŝǼDZȱŞŜŗȬŞŝŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ DZȱ American Planning Association. ǰȱǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşśǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ polluted rural and remote environments. ȱȱ ¢ȱȱŗŖŖDZȱŗŗǰȱŚşŝȬŗŗǰȱśŖŞǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ¢DZȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢- ȱ ¢ȱřŖDZȱŘŝŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ¤ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ and precipitation in Europe. ȱȱ ¢ȱȮȱŗŗŜǰȱŖŘŘŗŘDzȱ DZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖ ŖŗŚŜŖřǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱDZȱŗşśŗȬŘŖŖŖǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŝȱǻŗřǼDZȱŗŞŖŗȬŗŞŖŝǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ- ment ŞŜDZȱŜŞŞȮŜşŞǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȏ ȏȏƖŘŖȏ Stone.pdf ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱDZȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǵȱȱ ȱȱŗŗŞȱ ǻŗŖǼDZȱŗŚŘśȬŗŚŘŞǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱŚŚȱǻŜǼDZȱŗŚŚŗȬŗŚśŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşŝŜǯȱȱȱDZȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱŜŜȱǻřǼDZȱřŗŚȬřřŖǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱDZȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ heat. ¢ȱȱȱŘśȱǻŘǼDZȱşşȬŗŖřǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱŗŞȱǻřǼDZȱŘŖśȬŘŘŞǯ ȱǯȱĴȱDZȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ǵȱȱȱȱŗŜǰȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŗŝŖŚřŚŜŘ 108 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱǯȱ¡ǰȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦȦ Ȭ Ȧ ȦȬ Ȭ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ- £ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱDZȱȱȱ atmospheric climate change. In ȱȱŘŖŖŝDZȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱǯ ȱǻȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱ¢ȱŘŖŖşǯȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱĜȱȱ¢ȱ- ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱǯǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦ Ȧǯ ȱǻȱȱ ȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱǯǯDZȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȮȱǯȱȱęȱȯ- ȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦŘŖŗŖǯǯȦŘŖŗŖȦȦǯȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱŗŗŖŖȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱŚśŖǯȱǰȱȱŘŖŖŖśȮřşřřŚǯ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯȦȦǯǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱDZȱȱřȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ, ȱ ǯȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱǭ Sons, ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ Ȭȱ Ĵȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱŗŖǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱȮȱǯȱ ȱGen- ȱȱȱȬśřǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ Southern Research Station. ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ abundance relationship for urban heat island studies. ȱȱȱȱŞşȱǻŚǼDZȱ ŚŜŝȬŚŞřǯ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱǯȱȱŗŖ ǻĴDZȦȦǯ ǯȦ ȦȦřŚŖŘřŘȮŗŘŖśřřŖŜśŜŘŝŘȦ- ǯǼ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ȬǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱǰȱȱDZȱȱȱȬęǯȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱřśȱǻśǼDZȱśŗŝȬśŘŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱ¢ȱśŖȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŘŖŗŘȬŘŖŘşǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȂȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ potential mitigation strategies. ȱ £ȱśŘȱǻřǼDZȱŜřşȬŜŜŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱęȱĴǵȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŖŘDZȱśŚȮŜřǯ Chapter 6
Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA
AUTHORS Frederick Bloetscher ([email protected]; Florida Atlantic University) Leonard Berry (Florida Atlantic University) Kevin Moody (United States Federal Highway Administration) Nicole Hernandez Hammer (Florida Center for Environmental Studies, Florida Atlantic University)
109 110 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Key Findings
ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ DZ
f ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱ f Ȭȱȱȱȱȱ f ¡ȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱę- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǞŘȱȱȱǞřȱȱȱ Ȭǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ engineering responses that might protect transportation infrastructure, may increase ¢ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱǯ
6.1 Evaluation of Southeast Transportation Systems ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ and operations to provide mobility and access that is safe, reliable, and sustainable. The ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱŘŗȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱ ȱDZȱǻŗǼȱȱDzȱǻŘǼȱȱȱDzȱǻřǼȱ¢ȱDzȱ ǻŚǼȱȱDzȱȱǻśǼȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ- ability challenge encompasses the full range of natural, built, and sociocultural envi- ȱȱ ǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȃȄȱȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱ ǻȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ DZ • ȃ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ • ȱěǰȱȱ¢ȱȱĜ¢ǰȱěȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- Dzȱȱ • ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȬ ȱ Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA 111
ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȄȱ
ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŘŖȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ȭȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ address interconnectivity and vulnerabilities that may lead to failures in policy direc- tion and cooperative infrastructure planning. To create leadership in this regard, the federal government created the Interagency Partnership for Sustainable Communities to reinforce the importance of environmental, economic, and social sustainability. In ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ transportation, and environmental policies and investments to increase transportation ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ geographic regions, including those of built and natural environments. It is at the local ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ An important component to a sustainable transportation is economic competitive- ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ shipped into, out of, or through the Southeast. In general, shipping costs range from $2 ȱȱȱȱǰȱǞŖǯŗȱȱȱȱǰȱǞŖǯŖŗȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǞŖǯŖŖśȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȬȱȱ- ȱǻȱŘŖŗřǼǯ
6.2 Climate Change and Transportation Infrastructure
ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ǰȱȱǻŘŖŗŘǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱęȱȱęȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŜǯŗȱȱȱęȱĚ ȱ chart used as a basis for that evaluation. ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ǰȱ 112 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 6.1 Analysis tool (Bloetscher 2012).
ȱ¢ȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǿ - ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱĜȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ methodology for assessing and mitigating the potential impacts of SLR and storm im- pacts on transportation infrastructure to assist transportation planning. The approach ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŗǼ the evaluation of current and projected SLR ȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱǰȱǻŘǼȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǻřǼȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ęȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşȯȱȱŜǯŘǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ
6.3 Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation Systems
ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱęȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA 113
Figure 6.2 Prediction of Sea Level Rise, accounting for time and rise.
¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱĚȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱĜȱĚ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĜȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ inundation of a critical access could cause transportation connectivity problems by ȱȱȱȱǯ ȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱȱ of certain types of transportation. Changes in hydrology can dramatically increase the ȱȱ ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴǯȱȱ ȱȱ outline the challenges facing each transportation sector in the Southeast. 114 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Marine and Inland Ports. The SE supports an array of marine and inland shipping ǯȱȱŜǯŗȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȯ ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȯȱȱȱȱŗŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘśȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱ intermodal transportation hubs. ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱęǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ even the long-term sustainability of some marine ports. In addition, SLR has a cumula- ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ up to 20 years to develop plans and construct improvements. ȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȬȱǰȱȱȃȬ¡Ȅȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ¡Ȭ£ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȬ¡ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȬ¡ȱ ǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱǞŗǯŘȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱŚǯŚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ protected environments. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĜǯȱ Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA 115
Table 6.1 Waterborne Foreign Trade Volume Rankings for SE Customs Districts in 2011.
Rank Port Satellites
1 Port of South Louisiana, LA ȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ 3 ȱǯȱ ǰȱDzȱȱǰȱDzȱǰȱ 10 ǰȱ ȱ 13 ǰȱ St Petersburg, Manatee ŗŝ Mobile, AL 19 Pascagoula, MS ¡ǰȱ 21 ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ Řś ǰȱ ŘŞ Memphis, TN 29 Savannah, GA 30 Charleston, SC 34 ȱ ǰȱ řŞ Louisville, KY 39 ǰȱ 42 ǰȱ 43 Morehead City, NC 44 Nashville, TN Śŝ Ĵǰȱ ŚŞ Greenville, MS 49 Guntersville, AL śŖ ǰȱ śŗ ǰȱ śř ǰȱ śŜ Ponce, PR
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ
Waterways. ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ hydraulic changes, sedimentation, sea level change, storm surge, and tropical storms. ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱŗŖŖȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ ¢ǯ
Railroads. ȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŖŖȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ 116 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
tended to construct railroads on high ground. As a result, railroads may be less sub- ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱȱŜǯŘȱȱȱȱŗȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱŜǯřȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ railroads. Conversely, of great concern is that the railroads built 100-plus years ago did ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĜǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱŜǯŚȱȱŜǯśȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ
Table 6.2 Class 1 Freight Railroads in the Southeast USA.
Railroad Status
ȱę Dzȱȱ ȱ DzȱDzȱDzȱ DzȱDzȱ Dzȱ ¢DzȱȱDzȱȱDzȱ
Kansas City Southern DzȱDzȱDzȱȱ
DzȱDzȱDzȱ DzȱDzȱ Dzȱ ¢DzȱȱDzȱȱDzȱ
Canadian National DzȱDzȱDzȱ
DzȱDzȱDzȱDzȱ
ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱĜǯȱȱȬȬȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȬȬȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱŗŝȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱŞȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȦ ¢ ȱ - ȱǰȱ ȱŗŖȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱřŘȱȱ¢ȱŘŖřŖǼȱȱśȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ£ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱŚǯŖŝȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŚȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA 117
Figure 6.3 Source: wikipedia.com, 2012.
ȱǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱŜśȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǻȱȱȱȱŗşŞŞǽŞŞǾǼǯȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱ are on higher ground than surrounding areas, but long-term base failure due to rising ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŜǯŜȱȱŜǯŝǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱǻȱŜǯŞǼǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǰȱ including sea level rise. Roadways.ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ 118 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 6.4 Cross sectional diagram showing the current base condition for railroads relative to the water table.
Figure 6.5 Future railroad condition showing that rising ground water level (dotted line) nearly reaches the gravel base, which can result in base deterioration and failure.
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱĚȱȱ ȱȬ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ- ȱȱȱDzȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ śȱȱŞŞǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ failure. In addition, because soil storage capacity is diminished, the potential for fre- ȱĚȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱŜǯşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱ Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA 119
Figure 6.6 Airport runways are generally elevated. Note that water table is below drainage requirements (dotted line).
Figure 6.7 Sea level rise will threaten runways, but because runways are designed with more elevation than roadways, runways will not be affected by inundation as early as are roadways or railroads. Note that water table is still below drainage requirements (dotted line).
¢ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȬ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱŜǯŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱěǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱĚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱśŖŖȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ during heavy rainfall events. 120 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 6.8 Illustration of Fort Lauderdale Hollywood International Airport. LiDAR map shows runways are currently above SLR projections; however drainage areas are not above SLR projections. Dark blue areas are would be inundated with 1 ft of sea level rise (SLR) and medium blue areas would be inundated with 3 ft of SLR.
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ęȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱ ¡ęȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱęȱ ȱǻȱȱŜǯŗŗǼȱȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ and be directed to a pump station. In these situations, the pump stations might be 2000 ȱǯȱȬ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA 121
Figure 6.9 Dania Beach Overlay Map Using High Resolution LiDAR Data (7” in vertical accuracy).
ǰȱȱ ȱȱęǰȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¡ȱǞŗȱȱȱȬȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯ 122 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 6.10 Wellpoints.
¡ęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȬ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱŜǯŗŘǼǯȱȬ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱěǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǞŗśŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȱŘŚȬȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱ¡ȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱǯȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱŘŚȬȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ
Figure 6.11 Infiltration Gallery Concept.. Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA 123
Figure 6.12 Injection Well Concept.
ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱDZȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱśŖȬȱȱŗŖŖȬ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱśȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ǯ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱŗȱȱ ȱŜȱȱȱŞȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚǯȱěȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȬȬ ¢ȱ ȱȱ- ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȬȬ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱǰȱ ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǞŗȱȱȱȬǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȬȬ ¢ǰȱȱ¡ȱęǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǞśŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱ¢ǰȱ 124 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭěǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǞŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ displaced residents go is uncertain although migration and displacement of residents ȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ construction. ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŞśŖȱȱǞŗŜŖŖȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŘŖŗřǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǞŘśȱȱǞŘŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱśŖȱȱȱŘśŖȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ
6.4 Conclusions ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȬ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱ ȬȬ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ damage is temporal in nature as opposed to the permanent threat of sea level rise. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŖşǼȱȯȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ operating and repair costs, and the possibility of catastrophic, cascading failures. If the Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA 125
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱŘŖȱȱśŖȱ¢ǰȱȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱĜȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱDzȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱ elements of this overall transportation system are particularly vulnerable to climate- ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ storm surge, and sediment dynamics need to be considered. Engineering options are already available for strengthening and protecting trans- portation facilities such as bridges, ports, and railroads from coastal storms and Ěǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱǯȱȱȱȱ implementation of technologies that monitor major transportation facilities and infra- structure, and the development, update and re-evaluation of current design standards, ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ ĴȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬęȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŘǼDZȱ • Planning time frames • ȱȱ • Integrated climate data and projections • ȱ¢ȱȱ • Region-based analysis • Interdisciplinary research • ęȱȱȱȱȱ • ęȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ • ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ • ȱȱȱȱȱȱ • ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱęȱȱ
ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĴǯȱȱȱǰȱȬȱȱȱ ǰȱ ¢ǰȱȱȬ£ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱĴȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱěȱȱoperational 126 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Ĝ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ of transportationȱ¢ǯȱȱęȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ǰȱĜȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ǰȱ- ę¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱę¢ȱěȱĜȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ served by these transportation systems. Transit and other modes of transportation that are not single-occupant vehicle mode may become more prudent to reduce congestion. Ĝȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ developed and implemented, including a detailed route signing system and emergency ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱǯ
6.5 References
ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱDZȱȱ management and adaptation in the face of climate change. ȱȱǰȱŚȱDZŗŖǯřřşŖȦ ŚŖ¡ŖŖŖ¡ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱDZȱ ȱȱ¢DZȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢DZȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱŗŖŘǻŗŗǼDZȱřŜȬŚŜǰȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦęȦȦ ¡ǯǵ ƽŗŞŜŝŞş ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱśǻŗŗǼDZȱŗśŖŝȬŗśŘśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ £ȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ęȱȱ physical transportation infrastructure vulnerable to sea level rise. ȱȱ¢ǰȱśǻŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦŗŗŝşŘǰȱȱ ŘȦŘşȦŗŘǯ ȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦ ǯ ǵȏ ƽŜŚŖǭƽŖ ȱǻȱ ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗřǯȱĴDZȦȦǯĢ ǯǯȦȦ- Ȧŗǯǰȱȱȱ ȱŗŗǰȱŘŖŗřǯ ȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱ ǯ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȂȱȱ ȱ- DZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱDZȱȱ ȱ¢DZȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦęȦ- ȦȏȦȏȏȏȏǯǯȱ ȱǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖǵȱ ¢ȱȱĴǰȱřŝǰȱŖŝŝŖřǰȱ DZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖ ŖŚŘşŚŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŖŞȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȂȱȱ Selling Light-Duty Models, ȱȱŗřȱǻŞǼDZŚşŗȬśŖŚǰȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯ¡ǯ ȦȦȦȏȦŖŞ¡ǯǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȮȱȱ ȱ for meeting 21stȱ¢ȱǯȱȱǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱǰȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦǯǵȏƽŗŘŝŞřǯ Climate Change and Transportation in the Southeast USA 127
ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŗřȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ- ȱǰȱȱǰȱŘŖŗřǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȏȦ ȦȬȬ¡ȬȬȬȬȬȬȬ ȬȬȬřśŝşř ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱ ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱ¢Ȧ ȱŘŖŖŞ ǯȱŝŗȱȉȱǯȱŜǯ ȱȱȱǻǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱŘşŖDZȱȱDZȱȱȱ ȱȱĜǰȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȬƖŘŖ Change%20and%20Transportation.pdf. ȱǻȱȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ- ȱȮȱęȱ¢ȱǰȱȱŘřŗȬ ȬŗŖȬŖŖŘǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦȦȏ¢ŗǯǯȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱǰȱǯȱĴDZȦȦǯǯȦȦ ŗŖŖŘȦ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŗŖŜǻśŗǼDZȱ ŘŗśŘŝȮŘŗśřŘǰȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŗŖŜȦśŗȦŘŗśŘŝǯ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦǯ ǯȦ Ȧȏȏȏȏȏ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦ ǯǵȏ ƽŜŚŖǭƽŖȱǼǯ Chapter 7
Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA
LEAD AUTHOR Senthold Asseng ([email protected]; University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida)
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Wendy-Lin Bartels (University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Kenneth J. Boote (University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Norman E. Breuer (University of Miami and University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Davide Cammarano (University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Christine C. Fortuin (Environmental Protection Agency, Region 4, Washington, DC) Clyde W. Fraisse (University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Carrie A. Furman (University of Georgia, Griffin, Georgia) Gerrit Hoogenboom (Washington State University, Prosser, Washington) Keith T. Ingram (University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) James W. Jones (University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) David Letson (University of Miami, Miami, Florida) Brenda V. Ortiz (Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama) Mark Risse (University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Fredrick Royce (University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Scott D. Shuford (City of Fayetteville, Fayetteville, NC) Daniel Solis (University of Miami, Miami, Florida)
128 Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 129
ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱDzȱȱȱȱȱDzȱ¢£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱDzȱȱǰȱ£ȱ ȬęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱDzȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯ
Key Findings
Changes in precipitation extremes f ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ resources. f ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱ as indirect damage through soil erosion, leaching of nutrients, and loss of future productivity.
Changes in temperature extremes f ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ such methods increase costs of production. f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ f ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ
Changes in tropical storm strength f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¡ȱȱȱǯ 130 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
f ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Dzȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ¢Dzȱȱȱȱǯ
Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide f ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢-
ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ3ȱȱȱȱǰȱĴǰȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱ
7.1 Agriculture in the Southeast USA
ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŝǯŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ economy and communities. Seasonal and spatial variability of climate conditions, ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- rigation have led to the development of a diverse and intensive agricultural sector. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗřśȱȱǰȱ ȱȱŗŚǯşƖȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱěȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱŜŖƖȱǻȱŝşȱȱǼȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱřŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŗȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱŗśǯŝƖȱȱȱȂȱȱȱŗřƖȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŝǯŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŗȱ- ȱǰȱ ȱȱŞǯřƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚǯśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȬȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱ¡¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱĴǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱDzȱ¢Dzȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ States also produce rice, sugarcane, and small grains. The Appalachian States are the Ȃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ Ĵȱȱ¢ȱǻȬȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ North Carolina also have urban shares of urban land use above the national average ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱǞśśȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ- ȱȱȱȱŗŝƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŝǯŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 131
ȱǰȱȱȱśŖƖȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱĴȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱŝǯŗǼǯȱȱȱŚŖƖȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ include fruits and vegetables, soybeans, greenhouse and nursery products, corn and ĴǯȱȱȱȱŜŜƖȱȱȱȂȱǰȱŘşƖȱȱȱȱǰȱŘŝƖȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱśŖƖȱȱȱǰȱřŝƖȱȱȱĴǰȱŜŘƖȱȱȱǰȱȱřřƖȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ
A)
B)
1 Dot = $20,000,000
0 100 United States Total iles $297,220,491,000
Figure 7.1 Maps show (a) shares of land use in the Southeast and (b) distribution of market value of agricultural products sold. (a) USDA Census (2007) and (b) Hatfield et al. (2011). 132 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Table 7.1 Regional Population and Agricultural Sales in the Southeast.
Population śşǰŜŖŖǰŖŖŖ Rural ŗŜǰşŖŖǰŖŖŖ ȱ śŘŞǰŞŖŖ Annual Sales ȱǻȱǞǼ ŘśǯŜ ȱǻȱǞǼ 31.1 Total (Billion $) 56.7
DZȱȬȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǯ
ȱŗşŞśǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȬȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱŗşŞśȱȱȱŘŖŖŝȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŞƖȱǻŝȱȱǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŚȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱřŜƖȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱĚǰȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱŞŖƖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŚǼǯ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱ ŘřȱȱȱǻŗŝƖȱȱȱǼȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱŗşŞŘȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗśƖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ conserve vegetative cover and to store soil carbon through integration of crop, pasture, ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȱŘŖŗŘȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 133
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱŘŖŗŗȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǞśŖŖȱ ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱǰȱěȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ- ȱǰȱȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŘȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȬȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱřşƖǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱŞŖƖȱȱȱȱǻȬȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡£ȱȱȱ£ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ
7.2 Climate Sensitivities and Vulnerabilities Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and change. Increasing tempera-
ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ2 ȱěȱȱ production through various physiological mechanisms. In combination, these factors ȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȬȱȱęȱǯȱ Adverse impacts of climate change on other economic sectors may increase the ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĚǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǞŗŗȱȱ ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱěȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ
Potential Impact of Rainfall Variability and Change ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ 134 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŗşşřǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ- ȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ Rainfall distribution also plays an important role for determining crop yields. Rain- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȬęȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŗşŝşǰȱ ęȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱŗşŝşǰȱ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȬȱǻȱȱŘǰȱȱŘǯŚǯřǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ¢ȱ critical are changes in rainfall intensity and the distribution of small versus large rain- ȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ£ǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱǻȱȱ£ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱǻȱȱŘǰȱȱŘǯřǯŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱ- ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱŘǰȱȱŘǯŚǯŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ- es in rainfall on forage production have not been as thoroughly researched as those for ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯ
Potential Impact of Temperature Change ȱěȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŗşşŞǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŞŖȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱǻ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱ£ȱŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŗǰȱ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼȱ¢£ȱȱȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 135
ȱŗŘśǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȱśŚŘȱȱȱŘŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşŝŗȱȱŘŖŖŖǰȱŝŞƖȱȱȱęǰȱĚ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ£ȱǻŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱĚ ǯȱ - ǰȱ¡¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǻȱ ȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǼǯȱȱ ȱşoC and above 31oȱȱȱǻȱĚ Ǽǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱ ǰȱȱěȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȃȄȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱǻȱȱ£ȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ carrying out the C4 photosynthesis process have higher optimum temperatures for ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱǼȱȱȱ£ȱȱ řȱ¢ȱȱǻ ȱȱȱȱŗşşŚǰȱ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱǰȱǰȱ Ě ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯȱȱȱȱ ǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşŞŗǰȱ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱDzȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱDzȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşŞŗǼǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ£ȱǻŘŖŖŜǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ increase in temperature. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǻȱŗşşŝǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£Ȭȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻȱ ȱŘǰȱȱŘǯŚǯŘǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱ¢£ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱǻŘŖŖŚǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗśƖȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŗşşśǼȱȱŗŖƖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘśoC mean daily temperature, ȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱȱǯ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŖDzȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ȱ¢Ȭȱ 136 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
agriculture, this will directly limit plant growth, while in irrigated systems increased temperatures could result in higher irrigation demands in combination with increased losses through evaporation. However, if future temperature changes are similar to the changes in the last 50 years, where global minimum temperatures have gener- ally increased twice as fast as maximum temperatures, resulting in a reduced diurnal temperature range (Folland et al. 2001), the impact of increasing temperatures on vapor ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ
(Farquhar et al. 1978). In addition, higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations can partially compensate for the increased water demands due to higher temperatures, through lower stomatal conductance, which reduces transpiration (Kimball 2010). Reduced
leaf transpiration as a consequence of higher CO2 will also increase leaf temperature with an increased chance of plant damage due to heat stress. Plants grown at higher
atmospheric CO2 tend to have a higher leaf water potential, which results in reduced drought stress (Wall 2001). ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ- tein content (Triboi et al. 2003, Zhao et al. 2008) and dough quality of wheat (Randall and Moss 1990; Wrigley et al. 1994). For some crops, night temperatures are critical for ȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱĴ¢ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ(Izquierdo et al. 2002). Increasing temperatures could have profound impacts on livestock and poultry ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱȱ ȱȱȬȱěȱǻ ȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ (Klinedinst et al. 1993). Dairy cows perform best under cool temperatures, with the ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱŚŴȱȱŘŚŴǯȱȱȱ relative humidity (>80%) heat stress in dairy cows can begin at temperatures as low as 23oǰȱȱȱȱȱȱřŚŴǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- tures by renovating barns to improve their cooling systems, but these costs would have ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱ statements can be made for swine production as the vast majority of the animals are ǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ but because these animals are moved quickly from production to processing, this is a ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ
Potential Impact of Elevated Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
Elevated CO2ȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ2 concentration leading to increased net photosynthesis rates, and at the same time reduces stomatal conductance resulting in reduced transpiration and improved water
ȱĜ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşŝŞǼǯȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ2 concentrations increase plant biomass production and yield (Drake et al. 1997, Garcia ȱǯȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱŗşŞśǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ęȱȱǯȱ
ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ǰȱřȱȱȱě¢ȱȱȱ2 ȱȱŚȱȱǻ- ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼȱǻȱȱŝǯŘǼ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 137
Table 7.2 Examples of C3 and C4 Species.
C3 Species C4 Species
• ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ¢ • £ǰȱǰȱ • Grain legumes such as soybean, peanuts, various beans • ¢ȱ ȬȱȱȱǻȱǼ and peas • ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ • ȱȱǻǰȱǼǰȱȱǻǼǰȱȱȱ ęȱȱǻĴǼDzȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ species
ȱȱ2ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢Dzȱȱ
śŖŖȱȱśśŖȱǰȱ¢ȱȱřȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŗśƖȱȱřŖƖȱǰȱ ȱŚ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱŗśƖȱȱŘśƖȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ ęȱ
ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱǰȱȱ2 concentrations increases photosynthesis from
řŖƖȱȱśŖƖȱȱř ǰȱȱȱŗŖƖȱȱřŖƖȱȱŚȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱ
ǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱ£ȱ2ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱȬ¡ȱȱǻǼȱ¡ȱ ȱŖǯŖŝƖȱȱ¢ȱ
ȱȱ ȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱśśŖȱǯȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ-
ȱȱřȱȱŚȱȱȱȱ2ǯȱȱȱ ȱřȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŚŖƖǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŚȱ ¢ȱǻ - ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ information indicates forage yield responses of C3 versus C4 perennial forages to be ȱȱȱřȱȱŚȱȱȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ǰȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯ
ȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ
¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱ
2ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱǻǼȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŚǰȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱ2ȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¡- ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ
ȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŗşşŜǼǯȱ
ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ2 is an increase in canopy tempera- tures due to a reduction in stomatal conductance and therefore less evaporative cooling 138 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǻ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱřȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡- ȱ ȱ ȱȱĴǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŜǰȱȱ ŗşşŚǰȱȱȱǯȱŗşşŚǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-
ȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ
Potential Impact of Tornados, Hurricanes, and Sea Level Rise ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱǼȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭǰȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ
Potential Combined Impact of Climate Change
ǰȱǰȱȱ2 concentrations do not change independently but inter- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ change adaptation strategies so that crop production can remain stable in a changing ǰȱȱȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ
ǯȱǻŗşşŜǼȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ ȱȱŝŖŖȱȱȱ2 in the ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŴȱȱŗǯŞŴǯȱ ȱȱ important to understand the interactions before developing climate change adaptation ȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱě- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ£ȱȱǰȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱŚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 as a
ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 concentration. ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱŚȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ
ȱȱ2. ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱ DZȱǻŗǼȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǻŘǼȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǻřǼȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǻŚǼȱȱĜȱȱ drought conditions. ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- eases in response to the changes in prevalence of the host species and the suitability of ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱ- dence that climate change has already changed the overall abundance, seasonality, and ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱĴǼȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 139
and changes in rainfall distribution may lead to changes in spatial or temporal distri- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȬȱȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ- ǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȬȱǼǯ
Climate Change Impact in the Southeast USA ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱDZȱȱȱȱŘŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱŘoȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱŗŖƖȱȱŗśƖȱ¢ȱŘŖřŖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱŗŖƖǰȱ¡ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱŗŖƖȱȱŘŖƖȱ ¢ȱŘŖřŖǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱŗǚȱ¢ȱŘŖřŖȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŘǼǯȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ adapt to climate variability and change include improved seasonal forecasts, drought ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯ ęȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱřȱȱŚȱǼǰȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱǻ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ o ȱǰȱ ȱȱ2ȱǻŚŚŖȱǼȱȱȱǻƸŖǯŞ Ǽȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱǻǼǯȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ
ǯȱ ȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱĜ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱ2ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŚŖȱȱȱȱǻŚŚŖȱǰȱƸŖǯŞoǼȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ 140 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱǻȱȱ¡ȱǰȱǰȱȱĚǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŘǰȱŗşşśǰȱŗşşŝǰȱŗşşşǰȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱ ŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱŗŖŖȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ- ȱǻ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢Ǽȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱ¢ȱȬ ȱǻȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱĚȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŗşşşǼǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱĴȱǯȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢Ǽȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ Ĝȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯ The potential impacts of climatic change on overall performance of domestic ani- ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱǯȱȱ ingestion of feed is directly related to body heat production, any change in voluntary ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ from GCM scenarios have been used to develop production and response models for ȱęȱ ȱȱȱĴǰȱȱȬȱ¢ȱĴȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱǰȱ primarily average daily temperature, to estimate direct climate-induced changes in ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȬŗşŞŜȱȱǼȱȱ
ȱȱȱDZȱȱ2ȱǻDžŘŖŚŖǼȱȱȱ2ȱǻDžŘŖşŖǼȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȯȱȱ ȱȱ ǻ Ǽȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜȦ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱŗǯŘƖȱȱȱ ȱȱŖǯşƖȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱDzȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱŘǯŖƖȱȱȱ ȱȱ ŖǯŝƖȱȱȱ ¢ȱDzȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱŘǯŘƖȱȱ ȱ ȱŘǯŗƖȱȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȬȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱřŞŞȱȱǻDžŚƖǼȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱŘŗşȱȱǻDžŘǯŘƖǼȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 141
ȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŜƖȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŘƖȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱŗşşśȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱřŝƖǯȱ¡¢ȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ǯ ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖśǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱřǯŘƖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¡ȱǻ ǼȱȱŝŖǰȱȱȱȱȱ řǯśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘřǯŚǚǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ animals not adapted to those conditions. ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ predicting direct and indirect impacts on the agricultural sector in the SE region are £ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ- portunities for agriculture to contribute to mitigation are also highlighted.
Virginia. ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ śǰřřśȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ
North Carolina. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŖǯŜŝǚȱ ȱȱȱŘǯŘǚȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȂȱȱǞŝŖǯŞȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŘřƖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱŗşşŜȱȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ ŗŚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŘǯŚȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ ȱ ¢ȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȂȱŘŖŖŘȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǞřşŞȱ ȱȱěȱȱŚǰřŖŖȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ industry is projected to lose 10% of its yield through heat stress due to an increase of śǚȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ
Tennessee. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȬȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȬǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ
South Carolina. ȱȱȱŗŚǯŞƖȱȱȱȂȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȬȱȱȱȂȱŗŝǯŝȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǞŗŝȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱŞƖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŚŘƖǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱřŘƖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ 142 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
¢ȱŗǯŝǚȱȱřǯşǚȱ ȱŘŖřŖȱȱŘŗŖŖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ
Alabama. ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĴǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŝƖȱȱȱȱǰȱ şƖȱȱȱȱȱŝŘƖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ Ȃȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱŝŖȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱ ȱ ŗşŞŖȱȱŘŖŖŝȱȱȱǞŗȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱŘŗȱěȱ ȱǻĴȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ
Georgia. ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŘŖǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŗśƖȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖƖȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱ ŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘśƖȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱśƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱŘŖŖŝȱ ȱȱ ȱǞŗǯřȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŞřǯŞȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱǞŗŜŖǯŗȱȱȱĴǰȱǞşŘǯśȱȱȱǰȱȱǞŜřǯŗȱȱȱȱǻ ȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ
Florida. ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǰȱȱŘǯŚǯśȱȱŘǯŚǯŜǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŝȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŜŖȱŗŜƖȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǞŜŜŗȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȬ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱǞŜȱȱ ¢ȱȱŘŖŘśǰȱȱȱǞŘśȱȱ¢ȱŘŖśŖȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱ- ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯ Ȃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ǯȱ¢ȱŘŖŜŖǰȱȱȱȱȱ Ěȱ ȱȱŗŖǰŚŖŖȱȱȱǰȱŗǰŞŖŖȱȱȱǰȱȱŘǰŞŖŖȱȱȱȂȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ
ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǞŚǯŞȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 143
ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬěȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȂȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱşǼȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ£ǰȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢Ȭȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȂȱęȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ
Arkansas. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǞŗŜǯřȱȱȱȱȂȱ ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ ę¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱŘŖŖşȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ¢Ȭ ȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ- ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǞřşŝȱȱȱŘŖŖşȯŘŖŚȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǞŚŜȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŖƖȱȱ ŘŖƖȱǻ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ emissions through production of biodiesel and cellulosic ethanol using crop residues, ȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯ
Louisiana. ȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŜǰŘŖŖȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱĚȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǰȱȱŘǯŚǯřǼȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȂȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ
7.3 Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in the Southeast USA
ȱȱěȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ types of adaptation can protect and even improve farm productivity. Adaptation has ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ of local or regional changes in rainfall and temperature and global changes in atmo-
ȱ2 concentrations. Therefore, understanding the local impacts of regional cli- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŝǯŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ 144 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¡ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŗǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ- ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻ¡ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŗǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱ£- ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȬȱȬȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ includes tools for seasonal forecast for much of the SE, including planting date sched- ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ǯǯǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱǰȱ
ȱ2ǼǰȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡- ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ
Figure 7.2 Relationship of global climate change, regional/local climate change, agricultural impact and agricultural adaptation to climate change. Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 145
ȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȬȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ- duction, as an important strategy for climate change mitigation, have been investigated ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ
Current Adaptation Strategies in Crop Production ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȬȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ£ȱǰȱȱȱȱ systems such as AgroClimate.
Sod-based rotation. ȱȬȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȦ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱĴǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȬȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ increased root activity at greater depths. The root mass produced by perennial grass is ŘŖȱȦǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱřȱȱŚȱȦȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱǯȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǯ
Sustainable soil management strategies. Conservation tillage is one of the sustain- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱ Ȭȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱřŖƖȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěǰȱȱ ȱęǰȱȱȬȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĚȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ
ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱThe use ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȬȱȦȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱ temperature during critical crop reproduction periods. Keeping the soil covered year ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱęǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱ¡ǯȱ 146 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Variable-rate irrigation. Ȭȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ęȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ǯȱ ȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱDzȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęDzȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬęȱȱ¢ǰȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱěȱ¢ȱĴȱȱ ȱǯȱ
Micro-irrigation. Ȭȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱǯȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ £ǯȱ ȱǰȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱǯȱȬȱȱȬ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱǰȱȬȱǰȱȱȱ - ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǻ ǯǯǯĚǯǼǯ
ȬǰȱȬȱȱǯȱA sensor-based, variable-rate nitro- ȱȱǻǼȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĴȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȬ- ȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱÛȱȱȱÛȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ- ¢ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ greenhouse gas emissions.
AgroClimate: Information and tools for climate-smart agriculture. AgroClimate is a Ȭȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȦȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱěȱǰȱȱ ȱȱÛȱȱȱÛȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱÛȱȱȱÛȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- tions using several drought indices and be alerted via e-mail and mobile phones about Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 147
ȱȱȱȱęȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǯǯǯ
ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ and forage availability. In animal agriculture, adaptation technologies have been stud- ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǻŗǼȱȱȱȬȱ¡ǰȱ ǰȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱ ǻŘǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱ
ǻřǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ3 and C4ȱȱȱȱȱ¡Dzȱ ǻŚǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢DzȱǻśǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢DzȱǻŜǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱ ȱǻŝǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ to avoid losses.
The Capacity for Agricultural Stakeholders to Adapt to Climate Change Adaptive capacity is an emergent property that confers resilience to perturbation ǻǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ the stability of social relations, the maintenance of social capital and economic pros- ¢ȱǻ ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱĴȱ breeds along the gulf coast that are more resistant to heat and tropical diseases than the ȱȱĴǯȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ£ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ determined by more than their access to appropriate technologies or management prac- ǯȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱDzȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ Dzȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ that limit options for adaptation. ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ 148 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ĵȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ¡ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱ Ĝȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȬȬ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǰȱǼǯȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱśŜȱȱśŞǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ǰȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ state and local scales, governments are also engaged in cross-agency collaborations to ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱ¢ǼȱȱȱȬ ȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ- ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱÛȱȱȱ Ûȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȬȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ¡ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻȱ ŝǯřǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱ ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 149
Figure 7.3 Perceived usefulness of forecasts and projections at specific timescales among row crop stakeholders (N=57) in the SE USA (Bartels et al. 2012a).
¡ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖśȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡- ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- velopment and dissemination of decision support tools that are accessible and relevant ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȂȱǰȱ ĴǰȱȬȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŝǯŚǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¡ȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ changes and seasonal variability in climate. In assessing the barriers and opportunities ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȬȬęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 150 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 7.4 Framework for a combined climate variability and change extension program (Fraisse et al. 2009).
ȱȬȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ control over other factors, such the federal farm bill, access to industrial infrastructure ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȃȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ȃȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȄȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚǰȱȱ ¡ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱ- ǯȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ¡- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 151
ȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱȱȱěǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬ£Ȭ ęȬȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜǯȱȃ Ȃȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȄȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǯ
7.4 Assessment and Research Needs
Climate change impact and adaption research needs in agriculture include general ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
General Research Needs Current climate change impact and adaption assessments are often local-, method- and Ȭȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǯǯȱȱǼǰȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- propriate adaptation strategies, as outlined in the Agriculture Model Intercomparison ȱ ȱȬ ȱǻ£ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- able climate datasets for historical and projected climates. These climate datasets need ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱ- ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¡- ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱęǰȱȬ ǰȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ 152 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡£ȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ mechanistic crop models and their application in climate adaptation studies. These gaps ȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱDzȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱěȱȬ ȱDzȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ Dzȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱěȱǯȱȱȱȱĚ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱ
ȱȱ2. ěȱȱȱ2 and temperature are often not considered ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱęǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ-
ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 and stomata closure can increase pollen ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ
ǻǁřŘǚȱǻŞşǯŜŴǼȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ2 ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱǻŘŖŖŗǼȱ-
ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ2ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ǰȱ
ȱ ȱȱ2ȱǯȱȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱ¢-
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ǯȱȱȱęȱ- ȱěȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ-
ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ2ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ęȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ
ěȱȱȱ2ȱȱĚȱDzȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǼDzȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȬȱ¡¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖŜǼǯ
ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ2. ȱȱȱȱ2 and ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱęȱȱĴǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ2 and ȱȱ ȱȱěȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȱȬȱǻȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱ£Ǽȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱ ŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȬȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǼǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢-
ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱěȱȱȱ2 ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 153
ȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ
¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2, temperature, ǰȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ
ěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ2ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡- ȱǻȱȱȱŗşşŝǰȱȱȱ ȱŗşşŝǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱ ǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱ2 and ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ conditions. Such analysis gives plant breeders a chance to target genetics to adapt to ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱĴȱȱ ȱȱ2ȱ£ȱ of crops and hence this is also absent from simulation studies.
ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ2 condi- ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¡ȱȱ
ȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱ2ȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱęȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ
Yield quality. ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ
ȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ importance than changes in mean temperatures for grain yields, so crop models may ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ
Modeling growth events. ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ Ě ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱĚȱȱęȱ ȱǯȱ
New cultivars and farming systems. In addition to improved modeling capacities and ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-
ȱ2ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ ĜǯȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ 154 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯ
ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ needs to those of crops, though there has been less research to improve understand- ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ ¡ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱ Ěȱ¢ȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ Ȭęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ- aptation measures over the long term. An improved understanding of climate change impacts on pastureland should be sought through comprehensive studies that include £ȱǰȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȬDzȱȬę¡ȱ Ǽǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǻ ęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ Studies addressing the impacts of climate changes on parasites and pathogens that ef- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯ
Seasonal forecast models. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ and tornados to improve planning and adaptation to seasonal climate variability and change.
Specific Research Needs for the SE USA ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ research is essential for agriculture to remain socially, economically, and environmen- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱ some of those needs.
Climate datasets and collaboration between agricultural and climate modelers. To be used in impact simulation models, especially agriculture and hydrology, GCM and ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȬǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱDzȱ¢ȱ- ¢ȱ¢£ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱ and minimum temperatures, precipitation, and solar radiation. ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ǯȱǯǼǯȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǰȱǯȱǯǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱǻ£ ȱȱǯȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 155
ŘŖŗŘǼȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱǰȱ thereby helping climate scientists improve their methods.
ǰȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱTraditional agricultural ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȯȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¡Dzȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱDzȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǰȱ ȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- tant elements to the overall agricultural research portfolio regarding climate change, but they should be incorporated into integrated approaches to assure that they contrib- ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱǯȱPopulation increases in the SE have led the nation ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ- ȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȦȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ £ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ farmers in the SE to develop and assess technologies to mitigate and adapt to climate variability and change. Additional, albeit similar, research is needed to identify, de- velop and incorporate adaptive technologies into agricultural systems. These technolo- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ to agricultural research and development.
7.5 References
¡ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱŗŝȱǻŗǼDZȱřřȬŚřǯ
ȱ ǯǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ2ȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭȱ£ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢¢ ŗŜŞȱǻŗŜǼDZȱŗşŖşȬŗşŗŞǯȱ
ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ȬǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ2 concentrations, ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱŗřŘȱǻŗǼDZȱŗŖŘȬŗŗŘǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŗşşŜǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ŝŜȱǻŘŖǼDZȱŗŗşȬŗŘşǯ 156 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȬ¢ȱ ¡ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĴǯȱȱŗŝȱ ǯȱȱȱ¢, ȱŘŖŖśǯȱĴȱĴǰȱěǰȱ ¢ǯ
ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱěȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱ ȱ¢DZȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡-
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 concentration. ȱȱȱŝřȱǻŗǼDZȱŗȬřŚǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱ¢ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱŘǯȱȱ and nitrate leaching. ȱ ȱȱȱȱŚşȱǻřŖǼDZȱřŚśȬřŜŘǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǯȱŗşŞŗǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱŗǯȱ Thermal response in the seedling phase. ȱȱǰȱřȱǻŗşŞŖǼDZȱřŜśȬřŝŞǯ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǞśŖŖȱǯȱȱȱȱ May 10, 2011. ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȯǰȱǰȱ- ǰȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱ ȱǯȱȱȱŗŖǰȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ¢ǯȦȦ Ȭ¢ȬȬ¢ȦȬȦ¢Ȭ Ȭ¢ȬȦ ĴǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ - dia. ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘřȱǻŜǼDZȱŜşřȬŝŖśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ £ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱŗŞȬŘŖǰȱŘŖŖřǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşśǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱDZȱȱ¡ȱ and temperature. In ȱȱȱDZȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ , ǯȱǯȱ£ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱǯȱśşǰȱȬȬǰȱ- ǰȱ ǰȱǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱęȱ-nearest neighbor approach. - ȱȱǭȱ ȱŘřȱǻŜǼDZȱŝŖřȬŝŗřǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱȱǰȱǯȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ -
ȱěȱȱȱǽ2Ǿȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ long-season peanut cultivar. Climatic ChangeȱşřȱǻřȬŚǼDZȱřŞşȬŚŖŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱ ¢DZȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱǭȱ ȱȱȱŗŘȬŖŖŗǯȱ¢ǰȱ DZȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȦȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱDZȱŗŘȬŖŖŘǯȱ¢ǰȱ DZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȦȱȱǯ Ȭǰȱ ǯǰȱǯ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱ¢ L. var. Ǽǯȱ¢ȱŚŜȱǻŚǼDZȱśşśȬŜŖřǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ability. In ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ęǰȱ ǯȱĵȬ ǰȱȱǯǯȱ ǰȱřŝŖȬřşśǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ DZȱ¢Ȭ ǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǯǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱęĴǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢- ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ- tation to climate change. ȱȱśŗȱǻŜǼDZȱŘřřŝȬŘřŚřǯȱ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 157
ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱȱ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ models. In ȱȱȱȱȱ¢DZȱ ǰȱǰȱȱǰ ǯȱǯȱ ȱȱǯȱ£ ǰȱŗŖşȬŗŘşǯȱǰȱȱ DZȱ ȱȱǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱȱ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱ
ŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ globally important crops. ȱȱȱ¢ȱŜŖȱǻśǼDZȱŚŜşȬŚŝŚǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ ǼȱŗŖȱǻ- ȱ ȱȱŗǼDZȱşȬŗŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ- ȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȬ ǰȱǯȱŝŞŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱDZȱȱȱ¢ȱ in participatory decision support system development. Climatic ChangeȱŞŝȱǻřȬŚǼDZȱřŞśȬŚŖřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- £ȱȱěȱȱȱDZȱȱśȬȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ¡ȱŚŞȱǻŚǼDZȱŚ ŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- tion in agriculture. ȱȱȱ¢ȱřȱǻŗǼDZȱŗȬŗŘǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ- ciencies. ¢ȱȱŗřřȱǻŚǼDZȱŝŖśȬŝŘŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢DZȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱClimatic ChangeȱŞşȱ ǻřǼDZȱřşśȬŚŖşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ 49 ǻŚǼDZȱŗŘŘřȬŗŘřřǯ Calderini, D., R. Savin, L. Abeledo, M. Reynolds, G. Slafer. 2001. The importance of the period ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱŗŗşȱǻŗȬ ŘǼDZȱŗşşȬŘŖŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ȱŗŝȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȏȦȦęȦ ƖŘŖƖŘŖ ¢ŘşŖşǯ ȱǻȱȱ ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱDZȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯ ȱǻȱȱ ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱǰȱDZȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ Cohen, M.R. 2009. ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱDZȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢ȦȦęȦǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ - ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȂȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱŘȱǻŗǼDZȱŚŚȬśşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢DZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Ȭȱ - ȱȱȱȱśŝȱǻřȬŚǼDZȱŗŝşȬŗŞśǯ ȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱŗŖȱȱ ŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȱ 158 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȂȱȱǯȱȱ- sented at Alabama Environmental Education Consortium conference Climate Change and DZȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱŚǰȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱĴǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ- ȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŖȱǻŗǼDZȱŘŘřȬŘřŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱ¡Dzȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ studies in global change research. ȱ¢ȱŗŝŘȱǻŚǼDZȱśşŞȬŜŖŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢DZȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¢ ȱ¡ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŚŚȱǻŜǼDZȱ ŗŘŝřȬŗŘşŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ££ȬǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŝǯȱȱĜȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ-
ȱ2ǵȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŚŞȱǻŗǼDZȱŜŖşȬŜřşǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ- tury. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŚȱǻśŖǼDZȱ ŗşŜŝşȬŗşŜŝşǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱDZȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŗşŝŞǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡- ide and stomata. ȱ¢¢ȱŜŘȱǻřŖǼDZȱŚŖŜȬŚŗŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǯȱŗşşŞǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȬ ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱŞŘȱǻśǼDZȱŜřŗȬŜřşǯ ǰȱǯȱŗşŝşǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱDZȱȱ¢- ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŚśȱǻŘǼDZȱŞřȬşŚǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱŗŚśȱǻŘǼDZȱşşȬŗŗřǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ - mieson. ȱȱȱŗŖśȱǻŗȬŘǼDZȱŗśȬŘŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱ¢DZȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ǯȱřśŘȮřŞŝǯȱ ȱȱȬȱ¢DZȱȱ- ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱǰȱǯȱǯȱȱȱǯȱȱǯȱǰȱǰȱ ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŞŜŗǯȱ - ¢ȱȱĴȱŘŞȱǻŗřǼDZȱŘŜŘŗȬŘŜŘŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ DZȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱ¡ȱŚŝȱǻŘǼDZȱŘşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱȂǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱśřȱǻŗǼDZȱŗřȬŘŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱŜȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ DZȱřśŗȬřśŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ£ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ- tion among Georgia organic farmers. In ȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ 09-003ǯȱ ǰȱDZȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱȱȃęȄDZȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱǼǯȱClimatic ChangeȱŗŖşȱǻřǼDZȱŝşŗȬŝşşǯ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 159
ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱ ŗşşŞǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬ ȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ
Ȭȱȱ2 enrichment. ǰȱȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŝǼDZȱŜśşȬŜŜşǯ ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ManagementȱşŜȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŗřŜşȬŗřŝŜǯ ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ inter-annual variation of peanut yield in Georgia using a dynamic crop simulation model. ȱȱȱȱŚşȱǻŜǼDZȱŘŖŖśȬŘŖŗśǯ ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ¢ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱşŝȱǻŝǼDZȱşŞŗȬşŞŝǯ ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȬȱȱ ¢ȱěȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ǰȱ¢ȱǭȱȱŗřşȱǻŚǼDZȱŜŘşȬŜřśǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱ ǯ ǯȱȱǯȱŗşşŚǯȱȱȱȱ ȱDZȱ¡ȱ ȱ¡- ǯȱǰȱȱDZȱ ȱȱǯ ǯȱȃȱęȱȱȱȱȄǯȱȱȱŗŝǰȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯǯȦȦȦȦŖşȦŗŗŖşǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢DZȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱǰȱǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱŗşşşǯȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱŝŝǰȱ 10-20. ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŗȱǻŗŘǼDZȱśŞŝȬśşřǯ ęǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ £ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱȱDZȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ȱŗŖřȱǻŘǼDZȱ řśŗȬřŝŖǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱĴȱȱȱȱǯȱǯȱȱǰȱ ¢ȱŘŞǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ĵǰȱ ǯȱĜǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ- ǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱŘŞȱǻŚǼDZȱřŞŗȬŚŖŝǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ĵǰȱ ǯȱĜǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ- ǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱŘŞȱǻŚǼDZȱřŞŗȬŚŖŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȮȱŗŖǰȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱěȱȱǯȱśŜřşŗȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢Ĵǰȱ DZȱ¢ȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱǯȱ 302 ǻśŜśŖǼDZȱŗśŗŘȬŗśŗřǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱȂǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ- ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ DZȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱǯ ȱǻ ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝDZȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ 160 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ȱȱ ǯǯȱǰȱŝŚşȬŞŚŚǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱǯ £ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ£¤ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱěȱĴ¢ȱȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱŝŝȱǻŘȬřǼDZȱŗŗśȬŗŘŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱřŖŚȱǻŗȬŘǼDZȱřŖŗȬřŗŚǯ
ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱęȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱŘřŞȱǻŗǼDZȱŜşȬŝŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱDZȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱěǯȱȱȱȱŜŘȱǻşǼDZȱ ŝşřȬŝşŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱ
ǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ2ǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱŗśŖȱǻŘǼDZȱŘşśȬřŖřǯ
ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱDZȱ2ȱěȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱ temperature. In ȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȯ ǰȱǰȱȱ- ǰȱǯȱǯȱ ȱȱǯȱ£ ǰȱŞŝȬŗŖŝǯȱDZȱ ȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱǯȱClimatic Change ŘřDZȱŘŗȬřŜǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱŗŘřȱǻŗȬŘǼDZȱŗȬŘŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ěǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĵǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ and adapt to climate change. ȱȱȱȱȱȱŜŜȱǻŚǼDZȱŘŝŜȬŘŞśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱDZȱǯȱ In ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱśŝȬŞŖǯȱ- ǰȱȱ DZȱ ȱǯ ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȬǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱ Ȃȱȃ¡ȱȄDZȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŖȱǻŘǼDZȱŚŞśȬŚşŘǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŗŚśȱǻřȬŚǼDZȱŘŘşȬŘřŞǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ǯȱȱȱĴǰȱŘȱǻŗǼǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱDZȱ -
ȬȬ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ2 concentrations. ȱřŗŘȱǻśŝŞŘǼDZȱ ŗşŗŞȬŗşŘŗǯ ĴǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱǰȱŗşŞŖȬŘŖŖśǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ŗŝȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ ŗǯǯǯȦȦȦȦŘŖŖŜŞŜŗǯŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŚǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ temperature. ¢ȱȱşŘȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŜŜȬŘŝŘǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱŗŖřDZȱ ŗŘŝȬŗřŜǯȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǵȱȱȱ- ȱ March 4, 2010. Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 161
ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȬ
ȱ2ȱȱǻȱǼȱȱȦ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱŘşŚȱǻŗȬŘǼDZȱ ŗřŝȬŗŚŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱĴǯȱ ȱȱȱȱŞŗDZȱ 110-119. ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱ¡- ȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱŗśDZȱśřȬŜŘǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱǯȱŗşşŝǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŘȱǯȱǰȱ¢ȱǭȱ- mentȱŜŚȱǻŗǼDZȱŜśȬŝřǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱŘȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŝȱǻŘǼDZȱŝşȬŞŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱ £ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ sustainable agriculture in Alabama. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ - ǼȱŚŚȱǻŜǼDZȱŗśŝŞȬŗśşŖǯȱ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- can public. ȱȱȱřŘȱǻŗǼDZȱŜŜȬŞŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱśŖȱǻŝǼDZȱ ŗŚśşȬŗŚŝśǯ £ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱȬ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱęǰȱǯȱ- ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ £ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱęǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱŗŘȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŗşŜşȬŗşŝŜǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŗşŞśǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȬȱĜ¢ȱȱȱŘǯȱȱȱȱ- ȱŞȱǻŜǼDZȱŚŜŝȬŚŝŚǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȬȦȬȦȬȬ ǯ¡ȱ ǰȱǯȱŗşşŝǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱřŞŝȱǻŚǼDZȱ ŚŞŚȬŚŞśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȬŞşǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱ ȱ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȬ ȱȱǻǼDZȱ ȱȱȱĴȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- plication on yield. ȱȱŘşȱǻśǼDZȱŚŚŞȬŚśřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǼȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŗřśȱǻŗȬŘǼDZȱŞŗȬşŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŗȱǻŘŝǼDZȱşşŝŗȬşşŝśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱDZȱȱȱȱ yield ceiling. In ȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱŚth ȱȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱDZȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ 162 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗŚŞȱǻśǼDZȱśŗŗȬśŘŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ£ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ practices. ȱ¢ȱŗŖŖȱǻŗȬřǼDZȱŗŗȬŘŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ£ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱřřȱǻŞǼDZȱŗŖśśȬŗŖŜŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ£Ȭȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱřŘȱǻŚǼDZȱŘŝŘȬŘŝşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǼȱȱȱȱȬ ȱDzȱȱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱȱȱęȱśȱǻśǼDZȱśŖśȬśŗŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱȱ ǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ- ȱ ȱDZȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱŗřȱǻŗȬŘǼDZȱŗŗřȬŗśśǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǵȱǰȱ¢ȱǭȱȱŞŘȱǻŗȬřǼDZȱŘŝřȬŘŞŗǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŚǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱşŗȱǻŗśǼDZȱŝŘŗŝȬŝŘŘŗǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱǯȱŗşşŖǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŚŗȱǻŚǼDZȱŜŖřȬŜŗŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱřşDZȱŘŚśȬŘŚŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱȂǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱ Cruise. 2002. ȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ changeȯǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ ȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ climate predictions. ȱȱřřȱǻŗǼDZȱŞŗȬşşǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǯȱŗşşŜǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ
ȱȱȱȬęȱ ȱȱȱ2. ȱ ȱȱȱ¢¢ ŘřȱǻřǼDZȱŘśřȬŘŜŚǯ £ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ęǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ǼDZȱ Protocols and pilot studies. ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱǼǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗśŗȱǻŝǼDZȱŞŗŝȬŞŘŜǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱDZȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ 99 ǻŘȬřǼDZȱŗřŜȬŗŚŜǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȬȱĜ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ǯȱ ĚȱȱȱĴǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱśŞȱǻŝǼDZȱŜśŝȬŜŜşǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱŘȱǻřǼDZȱŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ ȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ2. ȱŘşŞȱǻśŜŖŖǼDZȱŗşŞŝȬŗşşŖǯ Agriculture and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 163
¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ şŞȱǻŘȬřǼDZȱŘŗŜȬŘŘŗǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱDZȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱěȱǯȱȱȱȱşŞȱǻŘȬřǼDZȱŗśŗȬŗśŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱŗDZȱśȬŗřǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱĴȱDZȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱşŞȱǻŗǼDZȱŜŖȬŜŝǯ
ǰȱ ǯȱȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŗşşŝǯȱ2ȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱŝşȱǻŗǼDZȱŝśȬŞŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱǰȱȱǯȱ¡- ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱ ŗŘȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦǯ ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ȱĜǼǯȱȃȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȄǯȱȱŗŝȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦȦ ȏȏǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ǰȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ Ȭȱ ȱȱŖŗȬŚŖŗŗǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱŘśȬŘşǯȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ ȱ ȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ǯȱȱřŘŝȱǻśşŜŝǼDZȱŞŗŞȬŞŘŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȬǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ- ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘśȱǻŘǼDZȱŗŖŞȬŗŗŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȬǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱśŚȱǻřŞŞǼDZȱŗŝřŗȬŗŝŚŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŚȱǻśŖǼDZȱŗşŜŞŜȬŗşŜşŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱDZȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ £ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ĵǰȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱ Ȭǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȬȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǽ2Ǿȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱ¢ȱǭȱȱŗŘŝȱǻřȬŚǼDZȱŘŗśȬŘŘŘǯ ȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴȱǰȱDZȱ- ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱŗŘȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ- ǯǯȦȏ ȬŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȬȱǻȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǼǯȱ ŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯȱȱŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȱȱ ȬȱǻȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȬ ȬǯȱȱŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȬȦȬȬ ǯ¡ 164 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱǯȱȱŗŖȱ- ȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦŘŖŖŝȦȏȦȱ ȱǻȱ¢ȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱęDZȱȱŘŖŗŖǯ ȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ helminthological challenges to farmed ruminants in temperate regions. ȱŚȱřŝŝȬřşŘǯ ȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȁ ¢ȬěȂǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢- ics. ȱ ȱȱȱȱŚşȱǻŝǼDZȱŗŖŞřȬŗŖşřǯ ȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱ ȱŗŜȱ ǻŘǼDZȱřśŞȬřşŖǯ
ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǰȱ- ¢ȱǭȱȱŞŝȱǻřǼDZȱŘŜŗȬŘŝŗǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ȱ¢ȱŜŜȱǻŚǼDZȱřŗśȬřŘŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱĴǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŜǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ
ȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ2 and temperature. ȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱŗŘŝȱǻŗǼDZȱřŝȬŚŞǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ- pacts of climate change on crop production. ȱȱȱŗŘŚȱǻřǼDZȱřśŝȬřŜŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱǯǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȬȦ- Ȧ ȱȱ DZȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢DZȱǰȱę¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǼȱȱĜǰȱǰȱǰȱǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŗşşŚǯȱȬȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢¢ȱŘŗȱǻŜǼDZȱŞŝśȬŞŞśǯ
ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱěȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱ¢ȱǭȱ- ȱŗŖŚȱǻřǼDZȱŚşřȬśŖŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱClimatic ChangeȱŞŚȱǻŗǼDZȱŚśȬśŞǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱȱǯǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȯȱ- ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱŗŘDZȱŘśȬŚŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱ
ǻ ¢ȱȱǯǼȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ- gimes. ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱŜŝȱǻŗǼDZȱŗŝŞȬŗŞŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱŗşŚȱǻŗǼDZȱŚŝȬśŚǯ
ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱ¢DZȱȱ thoughts on food. ȱ¢ȱŗŝśȱǻŚǼDZȱŜŖŝȬŜŗŞǯ Chapter 8
Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Steven McNulty ([email protected]; Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) Peter Caldwell (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) Thomas W. Doyle (National Wetlands Research Center, US Geological Survey, Lafayette, Louisiana) Kurt Johnsen (Southern Institute of Forest Ecosystems Biology, USDA Forest Service, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina) Yongqiang Liu (Center of Forest Science Disturbance, USDA Forest Service, Athens, Georgia) Jacqueline Mohan (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Jeff Prestemon (Forest Economics Unit, USDA Forest Service, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina) Ge Sun (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina)
165 166 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖȱ¢ǯȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ- traction of farming and the rise of plantation forestry in the 20th century, the struc- ture and function of southern forests continues to evolve. Climate change represents ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ęǰȱ ǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ǯȱĚȱ ȱ¡£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŗst ¢ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ
Key Findings
f ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱǯ f ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ beetle. f ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ě ǯȱ f ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻ2Ǽǯȱ f ȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
8.1 Historical Perspective ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱ¢ǰȱŜŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱŗŞŜŖǰȱ ȱŚřƖȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşŘŖȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱĴǯȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŘŖȱȱ resulted in abandonment of large areas of crop and pasture lands. Some of the aban- ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱŗşśŖȱȱ¢ȱ ŗşŜŖǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 167
forests for soybean and other crop production. Much of this timberland reduction oc- ȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱŗşŝŖǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡- ȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŗşŞŘȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȬȱȱ ǻȱȱŗƖǼȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŗȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱśŖƖȱȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¡¢ȱŝśƖȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǰȱ ȱǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ
8.2 Southeastern Forest Types
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ DZȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȦǰȱȬ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱřŖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱŗśȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡¢ȱŗřȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱ ǰȱȱȱȱřȱȱȱȬ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ
ǰȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱ2ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ- est management could be used to cope, adapt, or mitigate negative impacts.
Atlantic and East Gulf Coastal Plain. ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱęȬȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱǻ- ȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȬ ȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱ¡Ǽǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱǻȱǼǰȱȱȱȱǻȱǼǰȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱǻ¢ȱǯǼȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱǼǯȱȱ¢ȱǻ ¡ȱǼǰȱȱȱ ǻȱ£Ǽǰȱȱ ȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ varies as does the potential impacts on trees species. Several dendrochronological ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱȱ Ȭ ¢ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ 168 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
and potential future droughts, may be a major impact on the distribution of some ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ǻŘŖŗŗǼȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖřȱȱ ŗśƖȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŚȱȱśȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ
ȱǯȱThese forests cover much of the high elevation areas of the Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ systems, the high elevation forests of the southern Appalachian ecosystems are at ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱřoȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ Ȭȱȱ¢ȱȱŚŞŖǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱęȱǻȱ and ȱǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ elevations in North Carolina and harboring federally threatened animal species, includ- ȱȱȱȱĚ¢ȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşşŞǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȬ ȱȃȄȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱęȬȱȱ ǰȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ Ě ǰȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşŞŖȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ability has increased. If these trends continue, they could lead to substantial change in the structure and function of future southern Appalachian forests. In addition to determining biodiversity, climate variability also controls forest ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŚŖƖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ ¤Û£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱŚǰŖŖŖȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱǻ- ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 169
to have been of centuries-scale duration in the time period 4,000 to 1,000 years before ǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŗǰŖŖŖȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȬȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱęȬȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱǰȱȱǻȱǯǼǰȱ ȱǻȱǼǰȱ ȱǻȱǯǼȱȱȱǻȱspp.Ǽȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ
Piedmont. The Piedmont region lays southeast of the Appalachian region and stretches ȱȬȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŞǯŗǼȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱŗŚȱ¢ȱȬȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱ ǼǰȱȱȂȱȱǻȱǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱ less-diverse forests may be more susceptible to insect and pathogen pests, and that ¢ȱǻ¢ȱǯǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ change scenarios considered. Conversely, under those projections the biomass of chest- ȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ
ȱȱȱȱȬȱ2ȱȱǻǼȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ
ȱȱȱ2 increases the productivity of the canopy loblolly pine and ȱȱǻȱ¢ĚǼȱȱ¢ȱŘřƖȱȱŘŝƖȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ
ȱȱǰȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǼǰȱȱ ȱǻȱǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱǼȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ¡ȱǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱǰȱȱȱ
2ȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ
ȱ2ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯ
Coastal wetland forests. ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ Coastal Plain and maritime ecosystems and are responsive to changes in climate and ȱĚ ȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱěȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 170 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 8.1 Mixed conifer and deciduous Piedmont forest in the southeastern USA.
ȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ěȱ¢ȱ ȱȱěȱǻǯǯǰȱĚǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǼǰȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ£ȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŝǰȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ǻ£ȱǯǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ǰȱǰȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ¡ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ mangroveȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 171
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡- ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ coastlands to mangrove dominated shores, due to climatic changes, may also lead to ȱȱęȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŗşşşǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱ ȱǰȱȱǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ Climate change poses some immediate and long-term threats to the health, func- ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȬȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱ ǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ǰȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱDzȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ęȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȭ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŗŗǼǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǻ ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱ in Mississippi, particularly in counties dominated by pines in the southern part of the ȱǻ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȬȱ ȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¡¢ȱŞŖŖȱȱŗŘŖŖȱǼȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ 172 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
8.3 Changes in Forest Type Across the South ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘǼǯȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǰȱ ȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ The combination of future climate, soils, and land cover may not resemble anyplace ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱěȱȱǰȱ¢¢ǰȱȱȱęȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ¢ȱ soils of the southeastern mountains and Piedmont are more similar to each other than ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ response to changes in SE climates. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ models themselves do not predict the future locations of tree species, as they do not ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱŗŖŖȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱŗȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȬȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȂȱȱǯȱ- ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǻ ¤Û£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱśşƖȱȱȱşŘȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ȱŘŗƖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱŗŜƖȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻŞǚȱȱŗŖoǼȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱŗŖoȱȱŗśoǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱŗśoǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 173
ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱǰȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ
8.4 Current and Projected Forest Stresses
¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ function of climate or climate change, but indirectly a function of climate impacts on ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱę¢ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ
Wildfires ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȬȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱǻ- ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱŚśǰŖŖŖȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱŗşşŝȱȱŘŖŖřȱǻ ¢ȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ęȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǰȱȱŘŖŖśȱȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ȱǰȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ¡ȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱ
ŗśƖȱȱȱȱȱŞƖȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖřǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŗşşŜǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ęǰȱ¢ȱ ȱ ęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻÛȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱ 174 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱȱȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱǻ ȱ ŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱǰȱ ęȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ reduce fuel moisture due to increased evaporation and, therefore, increase the threat ȱ ęǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĜȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ reduces soil moisture, tree productivity and fuel loading could despite the ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱ precipitation are less certain than those for air temperature. Projected precipitation ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ higher in many subtropical and mid-latitude ecosystems outside the SE. This reduced ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǯȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǯȱ
Hurricanes ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŗŗşȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱ ȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ¢ȱǻŘŖŖŘǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱřǰȱŚǰȱȱśȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ£ǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŜȱȱŗŚȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱŘŘȱ- lion m3 of timber estimated at a value of $1.4 billion to $2.4 billion dollars. Impacts are ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢Dzȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ forests also can also be impaired. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱDZȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 175
ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ- eter ratios, height, spacing, recent thinning, and impacts of previous disturbance on ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ǯȱȱȱ composition may also impact the degree of damage from hurricanes. Therefore, stand ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ forest managers to reduce hurricane impacts. ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǯȱĴǼȱȱ¢ȱȱǻP. taedaǼǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱǯȱǻŗşşŗǼȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǻ¡ȱǼǰȱȱ ȱȱǻȱǼȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŗşşŗǼǯ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱǻŝƖǼȱȱ¢ȱȱǻŘŜƖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ Ȭ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşśǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ£ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱę¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱĜ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŗşşŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- est composition.
Insects ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ- ȱȱǯǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǞşŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşŜŖȱȱŗşşŖǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ- ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ impact the amount of insect caused damage under future climate conditions includ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ£ȱŗşŜŜǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ 176 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
change may also impact insect success. Although it is one of the principle drivers of ris-
ȱȱȱǰȱ2ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱǻŘŖŖŚǼȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŝƖȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ
ȱȱ2ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŚȱȱŝȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǞśŖŖȱȱ ǞŞŖŖȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱǰȱǯǼȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱŗşşşȱȱŘŖŖŘǰȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŞǯŘǼǯȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ soil nitrogen concentrations from sites that largely survived the drought. In addition to ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱĴǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱȱ ȱǼȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱǼȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ climatic conditions also made these stands the most susceptible to mortality once those conditions changed. In combination, insects, drought, and nitrogen deposition ulti- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ- cline seem clear, forest managers have historically not been taught to consider vigorous ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ
Elevated Atmospheric CO2
ȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ2 could
ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¡ȱǻ2Ǽȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱřśƖȱȱȱǰȱȱȱŘŞŖȱȱȱȱȱřŞŖȱ ȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ
2ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŞśŖȱȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 177
Figure 8.2 Red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) mortality in western North Carolina due to a combination of drought, southern pine beetles, and acid rain.
ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ also the basis of plant photosynthesis. Given that plant photosynthesis is not saturated
ȱȱ2ȱǰȱȱȱȱ2ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱ2 ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ
8.5 Ecosystem Services Southeastern forests have been a major source of ecosystem goods and services for ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŗşşŜǼǯȱȱȱȱ- ics and climate may change the value of and need for some ecosystem services, but an ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2, and part of a ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱ
Forest Productivity and Carbon Sequestration ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱDzȱ ȱDzȱ£Dzȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱDzȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 178 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
¢ǯȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȂȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŜŖƖȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱ ¢ȱǼȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ2 increase and ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱřŜƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŗşşśǼǯȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ter 13% of regional greenhouse emissions in soils and long-lived forest products, such ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱřŖƖȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŗşşśǼǯȱ
Forest Water Resources ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱ ȱ- ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŖŚǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖǯŚȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ Ǽǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱ ȱǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 179
ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱę- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŞǯřǼǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ- Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱěȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ- ȱǰȱěǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ
Figure 8.3 Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation predictions of soil erosion areas within the Uwharrie National Forest by 2030. 180 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ¡ȱǻ Ǽȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱśŖȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ
8.6 Adaptation and Mitigation Options
ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ- spheric carbon enrichment, as long as precipitation does not decline or air temperature
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ2 ben- ęȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşşŞǼǯȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱŞǯŚǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ regional timber harvests that come from the northern reaches of the region. This may ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǯȱ There are a variety of other adaptation strategies to address climate trends and ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ
Figure 8.4 Forest model predictions of increased carbon sequestration (measured at net primary productivity, NPP) in the northern sections of the southern USA due to increasing air temperature by the end of this century. Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 181
ȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ be important in developing forest management regimes and increasing stand produc- ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱĴǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ
ǰȱȱ2 enrichment may be further enhanced by improved genetics, bioen- gineering, use of marginal agricultural land for tree production, and more intensive ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¡ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŞǯśǼǯ ȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŚŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢£ȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱ
Figure 8.5 Interactions of climate (e.g., drought), biological (e.g., insects) and abiotic (e.g., fire or acid rain) can combine to cause forest mortality. The interactive stresses may be related (e.g., drought and fire) or unrelated (e.g., drought and acid rain). Any single stress may not have caused the mortality, but as climate change continues the potential for more frequent, more severe, and synergistic stress increases. 182 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ££Ȭȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Improved understanding of climate change impacts and adaptation options are only ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ Ȭȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȬȱȦȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱ Ȭȱ ȱǻȱ¢ȱȱ ¡Ǽȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱȬȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ǽȱ ȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱǻȱŞǯŜǼǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ application of these tools.
Figure 8.6 Web-based tools such as TACCIMO (Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options) are increasingly being used to easily translate scientific knowledge into the hands of the land manager. Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 183
8.7 Conclusions
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- Dzȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ- pendent studies suggest that remnant species present from the last glaciation, such as ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ drier conditions in some parts of the SE, conditions could favor more drought-tolerant ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǯ
8.8 References
ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱ- tion of tropical cloudiness by soot. ǰȱŘŞŞȱǻśŚŜŞǼDZȱŗŖŚŘȬŗŖŚŝǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱĴȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşŜşȱȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱřŗȱǻřǼDZȱŗŘşȬŗřŝǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŜǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȬȱDZȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗŖřȱǻřřǼDZȱŗŘŚŚŝȬŗŘŚśŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ disturbance from herbivores and pathogens. ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŜŘȱǻřǼDZȱ ŘŜřȮŘŞŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱŚȱǻřǼDZȱŗŜŚȬŗŞśǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱDZȱ ȱȱŗşşşȱ ȱȱŘȱęȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŘȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱDZȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ǰȱDZȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱĵǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ-
ȱǽ2Ǿȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱŗŜŗȱǻřǼDZȱŞŘŝȬŞřśǯ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȬȱȱŜśȱǻŘǼDZȱŗŖśȬŗŗśǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱĴǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ Ȃ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ests. ¢ȱǻŘřŗȦŘřŘǼǰȱŜŖDZśŝȬŜŘǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱǰȱǯȱǯȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǻ ȱǼǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŚȱǻŜǼDZȱŗŚŝŚȮŗŚŞŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢ȱ £ȱȱȱȱ¡ȬȱȱȱŗŝȬ¢Ȭȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱşDZȱŞŚşȮŞŜŗǯȱ 184 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ Śȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ Changeǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱĴǰȱȱǯ ǯȱǰȱŜřȬŜşǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ ȱ Survey. ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱȱ- ȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱşDZŚŘŜřȬŚřŖŚǯȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ řŘŖDZȱŗŚśŜȬŗŚśŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ĴǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱ - Ȃȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱǯȱȱřŗŞȱǻśŞśřǼDZȱŗŗŖŝǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ĵǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ȱ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ěǯȱ 1992. Climate forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. ȱŘśśȱǻśŖŚřǼDZȱŚŘřȬŚřŖǯ
¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ2 enhances biological contributions to ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱěĴȱȱȱ ȱȬȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱşŝȱǻŗǼDZȱŜŝȬŝŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǯ ǯȱȱȱǯǯȱǰȱřşŝȬŚŚŞǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱ- sity Press. ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ¢DZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŗŝȱǻśǼDZȱ ŗŞřŚȬŗŞŚşǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱěǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱ Climate change and forest disturbances. ȱśşȱǻşǼDZȱŝŘřȬŝřŚǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ to climate change. ȱȱȱȱȱŚŖŞȱǻŞǼDZȱŗŞŞŞȬŗşŖŗǯ ȱǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱȱȱǯǯȱ¡ǯȱȬ- DZȱ ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢DZȱ A focus on species, ecosystems, and landscapes. ȱȱŞȱǻŚǼDZȱşŘŗȬşřŚǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ
ȱ2DZȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ19, řŖŖŜDzȱ DZȱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŚ ŖŖŘřŚŜǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱȂǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱěȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȬȱǰȱȱȱ change. In ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ, ed. ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱŗȬŘŞǯȱǰȱȱDZȱȱ Netherlands. ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȬȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ- agementȱŘśşȱǻŚǼDZȱŝŝŖȬŝŝŝǯ ǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŗŝDZŝŗȬŞŚǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Appalachian forest using soil charcoal. ¢ȱşŗȱǻřǼDZȱŜŜŘȬŜŝŖǯ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 185
ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǵȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŜǼDZȱ ŘŖŚşȬŘŖŜŝǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŗşŗȱǻŗȬřǼDZȱŜŗȬŝŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȬ£ǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢DZȱȱȱǯȱȱŘşřȱǻśśŘşǼDZȱŚŝŚȬŚŝşǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ tropics based on Magicc and a GISS GCM-derived lightning model. Climatic ChangeȱřşȱǻŘȬřǼDZȱ ŘŝřȬŘşŜǯȱ ££Ȭǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ŘŜŖȱǻśǼDZȱŝşśȬŞŖśǯ ££Ȭǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱĚ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯǼȱȱ¢ǯȱȱŘȱǻřǼDZȱ ŝŚşȬŝŝŜǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯ ǯȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱǰȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŗşȱǻŗǼDZȱŗŚȬŘŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ DZȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦŘŗŜǯŘŘŜǯŗŝŝǯŝŞȦȦęȏȏȏǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşŗǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱǯǯȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŘřȱǻŚǼDZȱŚŘŖȬŚŘŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱĚȱǯȱȱ¡DZȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Carolina Piedmont forest. ȱȱŗŖǻŘǼDZȱŘŝśȬŘŞŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȬȱȱǯȱClimate ChangeȱŞŚDZȱŗşŗȬŘŖŘǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱ ȱ ȱȱDZȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱśŗȱǻşǼDZȱŝŜśȬŝŝşǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱ Ȭ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯǼȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱŘŝȱǻŗǼDZȱřŗȬŚřǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱDZȱȱȱȱ ęȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ǯ ¤Û£ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ- stand tree recruitment response to climate change. ȱȱŝŝȱǻŘǼDZȱŗŜřȬŗŝŝǯ ¤Û£ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĵǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ - plications under climate change. ȱȱŗŞȱǻŝǼDZȱŗŜŜŚȬŗŜŝŞǯ ȱǻ ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝDZȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱȱǯȱǯȱ ǰȱ ĵDZȱ ǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱŗřŚȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘśŚȱǻřǼDZȱ řşŖȬŚŖŜǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ 33 ǻŚǼDZȱŗŝŞȬŗŞŗǯȱ 186 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱà£Ȭ ěǰȱǯǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱDZȱȱ ǯȱȱ ¢ȱŞşȱǻŘǼDZȱŗŖśȬŗŘŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŗşşśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ- ȱȱǵȱ ȱȱ¢ȱşřȱǻŗŗǼDZȱřşȬŚŚǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢DZȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱŚŞȱǻŜǼDZȱŝŖŗȬŝŘřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ Ěȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǰȱśȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŗȬŗŘǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ tropical South America. ȱȱȱ¢ȱŗřřȱǻŗȬŚǼDZȱŚŖȬśřǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱŗşŞŞȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ ęǯȱ ¢ȱ- ȱĴ 32, ŗŖŞŖŜDzȱDZȱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖś ŖŘŘŚŗŗ ȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŘśşȱǻŚǼDZȱŜŞśȬŜşŝǯ Liu, Y. 2011. A numerical study on hydrological impacts of forest restoration in the southern ȱǯȱ¢¢ȱŚȱǻŘǼDZȱŘşşȬřŗŚǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǯǯȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ biotic controls on change in soil elevation. ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗŜȱǻśǼDZȱśŚśȬśśŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- der rapid climate change. ¢ȱŞŜȱǻŞǼDZȱŘŖŞŞȬŘŖşŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ populations using a forest ecosystem model. In The productivity and sustainability of south- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱȱȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱŜŗŝȬŜřŚǯȱ ȱǰȱDZȱȬǰȱ ȱǰȱ ǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱŗŗŜȱǻǯȱŗǼDZȱŗŝȬŘŚǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ DZȱęȱȱȂȱȱȱ loads under a changing climate. ȱȱŗśŞȱǻŜǼDZȱŘŖśřȬŘŖśŞǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱřDZȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǯȱǯȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱŜŝȬŗŘŘǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŗşşŝǯȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱŝDZŝŝŖȮŞŖŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǯȱ¢ĴǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ǯȱǯȱǯȱȱŝśǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ- ȱȱǰȱȱřřǰȱřŞřȬřşŚǯ ȱǻȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱDZȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ¢ǯȦȦȬ- ǯȱǻȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯǼ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 187
ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¡ȱǼȱȱȱ-
ȱ2. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖřȱǻŘŚǼDZȱ şŖŞŜȬşŖŞşǯ
ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȬȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱ¢DZȱ Implications for forest regeneration and succession. ȱȱŗŝȱǻŚǼDZȱŗŗşŞȬŗŘŗŘǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¡ȱǼȱȱȱ-
ȱ2DZȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱŞşȱǻŘǼDZȱśŞśȬśŞŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱ¡ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱřşȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŗřȬŘřŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱȱDZȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱ¢ȱŗŝşȱǻřǼDZȱŞŗŞȬŞŘŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ- ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱĵǰȱ ǯǯȱȬ££ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱ
ȱȱȱ2 is conserved across a broad range of productivity. ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŘȱǻśŖǼDZȱŗŞŖśŘȬŗŞŖśŜǯ
¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ2 enhancement of forest productivity constrained by limited nitrogen availability. ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŝȱǻŚśǼDZȱŗşřŜŞȬŗşřŝřǯ Ȃ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ in simulations of 21st-century climate change. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŜȱǻřśǼDZȱŗŚŝŝřȬŗŚŝŝŝǯ ȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ §ǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱŘȬȱǯȱȱŚŗŗDZȱŚŜşȬŚŝŘǯȱ Ûǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱ ǰȱ ęȱ£ǰȱȱ ęȱȱȱ coastal eastern Spain. Climatic ChangeȱřŞȱǻřǼDZȱřŚśȬřśŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗřśȱǻřǼDZȱřŜŖȬřŜŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱȱȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȬśřǰȱǰȱȱǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŜǯȱ ȱȱ ȱęǯȱ ȱǰȱDZȱ ȱ¢ȱ & Sons, Inc. ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ŗŖȱǻŚǼDZȱŚŗśȬŚŘŝǯ £ȱǯǯȱŗşŜŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱ- £ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱǽȱȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǾǯȱȱřȱǻŜǼDZŞȬȱŗŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ role of genetics and tree improvement in southern forest productivity. In General Technical ȱȱŝśǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ- search Station, Chapter 10. 188 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ £ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ- ȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱŝŗȱǻřǼDZȱřŘşȬřřşǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱǯǯȱ ȱȱDZȱȱǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ Ȭ¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱCana- ȱ ȱȱȱȱřşȱǻřǼDZȱśŖŝȬśŗŞǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱ forest landscapes. In ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȬśř, ed. ǯǯȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱŜŖŝȬŜřŖǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘśŖȱ ǻŗȬŘǼDZȱŗŗşȬŗřśǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱęȱȱǰȱŗşśşȬŗşşŝǯȱ ȱȱ - ¢ȱȱŗŖŝǰȱŞŗŚşDzȱDZȱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŗ ŖŖŖŚŞŚǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱŗŗŜǰȱ ŖŖ ŖśDzȱ DZȱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖ ŖŖŗśŝřǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱDZȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȦȦ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ¢ǰȱȱȱǯȱŚřǯȱǰȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱȱȱśDZȱŚŘŗȬŚřŜǯ ȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱDZȱ Implications for current pine management. In ȱȱȱŗŘȱȱȱ- ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȬŝŗǰȱǯȱ ǯǯȱǰȱŗŘŝȬŗřŗǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱŘŗȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŝȬřśǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱȱǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ ŚDZśřȬşŜȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ ǯ ǯȱ ȱȱ ǯ ǯȱȱǻǯǼȱȱȱȱ- ¢DZȱěȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȬ ȬŚŘȬǯȱŘǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢¢ȱśȱǻřǼDZȱŚŖśȬŚŖŞǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȮśř. ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱǯǯȱȂȱȱȱȱŘŖŖśDZȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȬȱŖşşǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱřŖşȱǻśŝŚŘǼDZȱŗŞŚŚȬŗŞŚŜǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱ ęȱ¢ǯȱȱřŗřȱǻśŝŞşǼDZȱşŚŖȬşŚřǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŚȱǻŘǼDZȱŞŝȬşşǯ Forests and Climate Change in the Southeast USA 189
ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱǰȱȬȱǰȱȱȱ- prises. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱśȱǻşǼDZȱŚŝśȮŚŞŘǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŗşŗȱǻŗȬřǼDZȱřŚŗȬřśŗǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ- sponse to climate change. ȱȱȱŗŞȱǻřǼDZȱŗŖŚŘȬŗŖśŘǯ Chapter 9
Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA
LEAD AUTHOR Julie A. Anderson ([email protected]; Louisiana State University Agricultural Center and Louisiana Sea Grant, Baton Rouge, Louisiana)
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Shirley M. Baker (University of Florida, IFAS School of Forest Resources and Conservation; Gainesville, Florida) Gary L. Graham (Texas Sea Grant Program, Texas A&M University; Palacios, Texas) Michael G. Haby (Texas Sea Grant Program, Texas A&M University; Corpus Christi, Texas) Steven G. Hall (Louisiana State University and Louisiana State University Agricultural Center; Baton Rouge, Louisiana) LaDon Swann (Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium; Auburn, Alabama) William C. Walton (Auburn University and Alabama Cooperative Extension System; Dauphin Island, Alabama) Charles A. Wilson (Louisiana Sea Grant College Program and Louisiana State University; Baton Rouge, Louisiana)
190 Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA 191
ȱȱȱǻǼǰȱȱęǰȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱǰȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ has already been seen throughout the region.
Key Findings f As land loss continues from sea level rise, subsidence, and coastal inundation, ȱȱȱȱȱęęȱȱȱęȱȱDzȱę- ȱȱ ȱȱǯ f ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱ ȱ¡Ǽǯ f ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ¢¡ȱ ȱ Ěȱ ¡¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ǯȱ ¢¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬěǰȱǰȱȱȱǯ f ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱ Ȭěǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ Ěǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǯ f ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ¡ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ on decadal time periods based on multiple parameters including temperature, ȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǯȱ f ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱǯ f ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĝȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱęȱěǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǯ
9.1 Background
ȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Information includes the research needs necessary to increase societal resiliency to cli- ȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱȱ 192 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ered more thoroughly in the natural ecosystem chapter. Some of these gaps in coverage are addressed in the research needs portion, and these topics should be included in future assessments.
Commercial Fishing ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ȱǼǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȬȬ line, cast nets, gill nets, tongs, and other gear types is conducted in state and federally ȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ ęǰȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱĚǰȱǰȱǰȱ mullets, red snapper, striped bass, and tunas. ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǞŝŞŝȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱŞŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȱǻȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱȱǻǼǰȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ ȱŗǰŝŜśȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱ ȱǞŚŝŚȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŘǰŝŚśȱȱȱȱ ęęǰȱǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱ ȦǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱęȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ
Recreational Fishing ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱęǰȱȱȱ ǰȱĴȱǰȱ¢ ęȱǰȱȱęǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ - ȱǰȱǰȱĚǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱęǰȱǰȱȱ ęǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǞŚŘȱȱȱŘŖŖŜȱǻȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȬǰȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱ¡¢ȱǞŗşȱȱǻ- ȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǞŜǯŗȱ ȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŖŜȱǻȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA 193
Aquaculture ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱǞŝŚŖȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ęǰȱ¢ǰȱȬȱ ęȱȱǰȱǰȱęǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ - ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ęȱǯȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱęǰȱǰȱȱ ęǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱŞŖŖȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱęǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢DZȱ ȱȱȬ ȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- Ȃȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȬ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱęǰȱȱ ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȃȄȱȱȱȱęǯȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ broad range of organisms from algae to turtles. Louisiana also has a thriving pet turtle ȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱęǰȱ¢ȱęǰȱȱęǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱ¢ ȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱęǰȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱŗŝȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŖȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ
Production methods. ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŗşşŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢- tem in use is the earthen pond and may include simple small farm ponds in addition to ȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¡- ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱ ¢ȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ
9.2 Climate Change Effects ȱȱȱęǰȱǰȱȱȱȱĚȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ 194 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼDzȱ - ǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱĚ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȬȱDzȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ their body temperature and, therefore, their internal temperatures match the environ- ǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ ¡¢ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŝǚȱȱŗŖǚȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱĜ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱ¢ȱěȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ DZȱ- ¢ȱǯȱȬȱȱȱȱŗşśŞȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱśśǚǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱ śŖǚǼȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŚǰȱȱȱ.ȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŚǰȱȱȱ. ŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĜȱǯȱȱȬȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ- ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘȱȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ
Finfish and Crustacean Shellfish ȱȱęęȱȱȱęȱǻǯǯȱǰȱǰȱǯǼȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęǯ
Wetland loss and sea level rise. ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱěǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ- ȱȱŘǯśȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱşǯśȱȱȱ year. Climate change could increase global mean sea level rise 20 cm to 200 cm over the ¡ȱŗŖŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱŘǰȱȱŘǯřǯŞǼǯȱ¢ȱȂȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱşŖƖȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŜǯŚƖȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşřŖǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ large land masses are splintered, the total interface area increases due to the combined ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA 195 sea level rise eventually result in the total loss of these splintered islands and reduced ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęęȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǻě¢ȱȱ¡¢ȱŘŖŖŘǰȱ ȱ ȱǯȱŗşŞśǼǯȱ ȱ Ȭȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱě- ȱȱȱěȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ into the bays and estuaries by ocean currents, and from there they move into the rivers ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ years and can live to age ten. Changes in ocean currents could disrupt larval transport ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱĚȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĴȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǻ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗşşřǰȱ ȱȱȱŗşşřǰȱ ȱŗşşŚǼǯ
ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢£ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱęǯȱěȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗşşřǰȱ ȱȱȱ ŗşşřǰȱ ȱŗşşŚǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢Ȭȱ ǰȱ ęęȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱęǰȱ¡ȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱ ¢¡ȱȱĚȱ¡¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ǰȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ Changes in species distributions occur much more rapidly in the marine environ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ£ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱŗşŞşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱãȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱśŖȱ per ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱǻȱǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŞŗŜȱȱ ǻ ȱŘŖŖŚǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ 196 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
at the same rate or at all. These disconnected shifts of species in a system may have ȱȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻ ȱŗşşřǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱ more research is needed in this area. ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǻ- ȱȱȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱȱǻ ȱ Ǽȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ŘŖŖŖǰȱȱȱ ȱŗşşŚǼǯȱ
Storm severity. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǻȱřȱȱśǼȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱŘǯŚǯŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬěǰȱȱȱǰȱĚǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ processing plants, and distribution centers. These types of losses have already been ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱşǯŗǼǯ
Molluscan Shellfish ȱęȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱěȱěȱȱȱȱȱęęȱȱ- ȱęǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖśȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǞŚŘȱȯ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱęȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡Dzȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱěȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱęȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱęǰȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱĚ ǯȱ - ever, larger changes in range could occur on longer time periods based on multiple ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA 197
Figure 9.1 A fishing vessel lies on its side near a wholesale fishing dock in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana, after Hurricane Katrina. Adjacent infrastructure also suffered massive damage. Photo by Paula Ouder. Courtesy of Louisiana Sea Grant College Program.
ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱęȱȱǯ
ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ- fects on the physiology of species, leading to possible impacts on metabolism, repro- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŗşşřǰȱȱȱǯȱŗşşřǼǯȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȮȱȱřǚȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŗst century in the area east- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱŘǰȱȱŘǯŚǯŝǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ- cies such as the green mussel, ȱǰȱǻ¢ȱȱȱǼȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ 198 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢¡ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȬ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ
Sea level rise. ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱę¢ǯȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- tivity and accessibility of privately leased oyster beds and clam farms.
ȱȱȱȱǯȱIncreased precipitation, predicted for ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ÛȬȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŗşşşǼǯȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȬȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŗşşşǼȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ could mean to the region.
ȱęǯȱȱěȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱęȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱǰȱȱę- ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱęȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱǯȱŗşşŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę- ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻ2ȱȱȱśŜŖȱȱŞŖŖȱΐǼȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱ ȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ Ǽ and found modest decreases in shell area and calcium content in specimens treated
ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ2ȱȱǻȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ-
ȱ2ȱǼǰȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ
Severity of storms. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱęȱęȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA 199
¢ȱěǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¡ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ĜǰȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱǯ
Freshwater Fisheries and Aquaculture ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱǰȱ ȱŘǰȱȱŘǯŚǯŝǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱǰȱȱĚȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱĚȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ęȱȱ- ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱ ěǯ ȱ ęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ěȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ęȱ£ǯȱ¢ȱ ěȱ ęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ- ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱřȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱěȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ Alligator farmers depend on the collection of eggs from nests found in coastal or ȱ ȱǯȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ Stress levels increase as salinity increases causing female alligators to abort nesting ȱ¢ȱȱŞȱȱŗŖȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱȱȱŗşŞşǼǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ - ȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱ- ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱŗŘŚǰŖŖŖȱ ęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ¡ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ streams are all vulnerable to these climate change conditions. 200 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
9.3 Complicating Factors ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱĚ- ǯȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱĚȱȱěȱȱ climate change on these sectors.
The Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone ȱȱȱȱěȱȱŚŗƖȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱŗşŝŖȱȱȱ¢¡ȱ£ȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱǯȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ£ȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŝǰŝŘŘȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢¡ȱ£ȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ
Harmful Algal Blooms ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ and other ȃȱȄȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǞŗşȱȱȱǞřŘȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱǰȱěǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱęǰȱěȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ and impacting the economics of the region.
Restoration Conflicts ȱȱ ȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ- ȱěȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱęȂȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ǯȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱęȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻě¢ȱȱ¡¢ȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȂȱȱ¢ȱ faces these same challenges if there are shifts in salinity regimes due to climate change.
Water Use ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ ǞřŘŜȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA 201
ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱĚȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ
9.4 Adaptation and Mitigation ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȯȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱěǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱ ȱŗşşşǰȱȱŘŖŖśǰȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱ ŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱşǰȱȱşǯŘǯřǼ
Monitoring ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱěȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱǻĴDZȦȦęǯǯĚǯ Ȧ ȏ¢ǯǼȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ prior to planting or harvest. This results in decreased fuel use and costs and, therefore, ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ
Gear Efficiency ȱęȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱę¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱȱ- vals for various preventive maintenance activities may enable remaining operators to ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ǯȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱDzȱȬǰȱȱ 202 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Ȭ¢ǰȱ¢¢ȱǻ Ǽȱ ȱȱțDzȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱ Results generated by co-operators across the Gulf and South Atlantic suggest that other ęȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱȱŘŖƖȱȱŘŞƖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¡ȱęȱȱǻ ȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ
Shifting Effort ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱęȱȱǯȱ ȱȱęȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱęȱȱǼȱ¢ȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę- ǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ
Carbon Sequestration ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ native oysters and can produce food and habitat, provide protection from erosion, aid ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬĴȱǯȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱŝŖƖȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ǻȱ and ȱǼǰȱȱǻȱǯǼȱȱȱǻ- ȱǯǼǰȱȱȱȬȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱŘǯŘȬŜǯŞȱ Mg ha-1 y-1ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ
Local Markets ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ǯ ¢ȱ£ȱȱǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA 203 costs and emissions. Additionally, they can yield a high price per unit and be bet- ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱŘŖȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŜŝśȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘǯśȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱĴȱȱęȱȱǞŜǰŖŖŖȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ¢ȱȱě¢ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻęǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ Ǽȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ- £ȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȃȱȱ ǻȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ
9.5 Research Needs ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ be adopted to mitigate the harmful impacts of climate change, such as sea level rise, ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱĚ ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱǰȱ an active collaboration of ecologists, physiologists, geneticists, engineers, climatolo- ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ę¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱęǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ¡¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǯ
Impacts of Freshwater Inflow ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱĴǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱĚȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 204 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Ȭȱęǯȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęDzȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱDzȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱǻ ¢ȱŗşşŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱ ¢¡ȱȱȱ£ȱǻȱŘŖŖŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱ analyses.
Aquaculture Development ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşŞşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǰȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱãȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱ Ȭȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱ- ęȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ
9.6 References
ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱŚŜŗȬ ŚşŖǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ DZȱ ȱ¢ȱǭȱǰȱ ǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱDZȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱȱ ǯǯǯȱ¢ǰȱŚśȬśŜǯȱ ȱǰȱDZȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȬȱȱę¡ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱ ȱŜȬŗŗǰȱŘŖŗŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ Û£ǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ£ȱȱȱ- lantic marine copepod biodiversity and climate. ȱŘşŜȱǻśśŝřǼDZȱŗŜşŘȬŗŜşŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱěȱȱȱ- cruitment in the North Sea. ȱŚŘŜȱǻŜşŜŝǼDZȱŜŜŗȬŜŜŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱ supply and global sea-level rise. ȱ ȱŘȱǻŝǼDZȱŚŞŞȬŚşŗǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŜŘȱǻřǼDZȱřřşȬřŚřǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŚȱǻśŖǼDZȱŗşŝŖşȬŗşŝŗŚǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱŝşȱǻřȬŚǼDZȱřŞşȬŚŖŘǯȱ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA 205
ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ¢¡ǰȱȱȱęDZȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ1 ǻŘŖŖşǼDZȱřŘşȬřŚşǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşŞśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ȭ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŘşȱǻŗȬŚǼDZȱŘŚśȬŘŜŖǯ ě¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯȱ¡¢ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ǰȱDZȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦǯȦ ȦȦȦ Ȧǯ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ- al marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. ȱȱȱŗŖȱǻřǼDZȱŘřśȬŘśŗǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱŘŗŖȱǻŘŖŖŗǼDZȱŘŘřȬŘśřǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱDZȱȱȱ ¢ȱ story. ȱȱęȱȱŗşȱǻŗǼDZȱŚŝŝȬŚŞŖǯȱ Dehon, D.D. 2010. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȂȱǯȱȱǰȱDZȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦǯ ǯȦȦȦȬŖŚŘŝŘŖŗŖȬŗŝśŖŚŝȦȦȏǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ trophic mismatch. ȱŚřŖȱǻŝŖŖŘǼDZȱŞŞŗȬŞŞŚǯ ȱǻȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦę¢Ȧǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱĴǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşřǯȱěȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ change on marine faunas. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŞȱǻŗŖǼDZȱřŜŗȬřŜŝǯ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ęȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ¢ ǯȦȦȦ ȬęȦǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ, after ¡ȱ¡ȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱęȱȱřŖȱǻřǼDZȱŜŘŝȬŜřŚǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ survival. ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŜŖȱǻśǼDZȱśŜřȬśŞřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ £ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢¢ȱȱDZȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱŗśŚȱǻřǼDZȱřśŗȬřŝŗǯ Gosling, E. 2003. ȱDZȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ ȱǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢DZȱ - ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱĴǰȱǰȱ ȱŗŚȱȬŗŝǰȱŘŖŗŖǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱĵǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱ ȱ ȱǯȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱȱŝȬŗŖǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱĴDZȦȦ¢ǯǯ Ȧ££ǯǵ ƽśǭ ƽřŝřŚŖǭ ƽŘŖŗŗǭƽŘ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱǼȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱȱ ǯȱ£ǰȱŘŝȬřŚǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱǻ Ǽǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ- £ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢- tems. ¢ȱĴȱşȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŘŞȬŘŚŗǯ 206 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ DZȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱęDZȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ management strategies. ȱ ȱȱȱȱŜŞȱǻŜǼDZȱşŞŚȬşŞśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱȱȱȱęDZȱȱȱęȱ production and yield. ȱŗŜȱǻŘǼDZȱŗŜŗȬŗŝŜǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱȱǯ ǯȱě¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱŗȬŗŘǯ ȱ¢ȱĴȱȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ ȦŘŖŖŝȦ ȦŘşŖŝǯȱ ȱǻ ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŗDZȱȱęȱ- ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱǯ ȱǻ ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝDZȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşŞşǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ the American alligator. ȱȱŘşȱǻřǼDZȱşŞŝȬşşŞǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŗşşŚǯȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱŘŞȱǻŗǼDZȱŝȬŗŚǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşŖǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱ- ȱŗśȱǻŜǼDZȱŗŜȬŘŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱ Ěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ǯȱȱ- ȱȱŚŞȱǻŚȬśǼDZȱŚśşȬŚŞŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘȱ ȱǯȱȱŘŝşȱǻśřśřǼDZȱŗŖŗŞȬŗŖŘŗǯȱ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ£ǯȱŗşşŜǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ concentration in a coral reef. ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŚŗȱǻŞǼDZȱŗŝşŖȬŗŝşşǯ
ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱ shell formation. ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŞşȱǻřǼDZȱśśśȬśŜŗǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ ȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯǯȦŗȦȦŗŖȦȏŘŖŗŖǯǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ, ed. ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱŗŚŝȬŗŜŜǯȱȱǰȱDZȱȱǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŗşşŚǯȱȱĚȱȱęȱȱęȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱŘȱǻŗǼDZȱŗŜȬřŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱĵǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ ęȱȱ. ¢ǰȱDZȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ Ȧ¢ȦřŗŚŖȬśŜŝȬŚřřŚȬśŝŘȬśśŗśśŗŗȦřŚŚŘşȦŘŜřŝ ę- ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ
2ȱ DZȱ Ěȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱŚȱǻśǼDZȱśŜŜŗǯȱDZŗŖǯŗřŝŗȦǯǯŖŖŖśŜŜŗǯ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA 207
ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱDZȱȱĚ. ȱǰȱDZȱȱǰȱ ǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱDZȱȱȱȱ analogy. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŘŘȱǻśǼDZȱŜŚŝȬŜśŞǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȂǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ- ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ Atlantic coastal region. ȱȱŗŚȱǻřǼDZȱŘŗşȬŘřřǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱǯ ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşDZȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱDZȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯǯǯȦśȦȦȦŘŖŖşȦƖŘŖŘŖŖşƖŘŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǯȱ ŚŖśȱǻŜŝşŖǼDZȱŗŖŗŝȬŗŖŘŚǯȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯǯ ȦŘŖŗŖȦŘŖŗŖŖŞŖşȏ£ǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦǯǯȦȦ¡ǯǯȱȱȱ- ȱŘŞǰȱŘŖŗŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱDZȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȂǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱěȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱǻ ȱŗŞśŖǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŗśȱǻşǼDZȱŘŗŘřȬŘŗřŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘ Ǽǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱŘŝȱǻǼDZȱŗŗȬŘŖǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱDZȱȱȱ Atlantic perspective. ȱȱ¢ȱŚşȱǻŗȬŚǼDZȱŗŜŝȬŗŞŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱęǯȱǰȱřŖŞȱǻśŝřŖǼDZȱŗşŗŘȬŗşŗśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǵȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱŝşȱǻřȬŚǼDZȱŚŖřȬŚŗŝǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ǯȱȱřŗŜȱǻśŞŘşǼDZȱ 1302. ãǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱěȱȱęȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ- tation of thermal tolerance. ȱřŗśȱǻśŞŖŞǼDZȱşśȬşŝǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȬǯǰȱǯȬ ǯȱȱǰȱ ǯȬ ǯȱ¢ǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ- ěȱȱ¡ȱȱȂȱǯȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŘǼDZȱřŚśȬřśŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱÇ£ǰȱǯȱ °ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŜŜȱǻŝǼDZȱŗśŘŞȮŗśřŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢DZȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ¢¡ȱ and the Mississippi River. ȱśŘȱǻŘǼDZȱŗŘşȬŗŚŘǯ 208 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱęǰȱǯȱ Ȭ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯ Lon- ǰȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- east Atlantic. ȱřŖśȱǻśŜşŖǼDZȱŗŜŖşȬŗŜŗŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱĵǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ȱȱ£ȱȱŘŖŗŗDZȱřŘȬřřǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱĵǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ caused by microbiologic agents. ȱ ȱȱŗŖşȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŗŗȬŘŘŖǯ £ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ managed systems. In ȱȱŘŖŖŝDZȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Changeǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ŝşȬŗřŗǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ £ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱěǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŗŞǰȱ řŖŖřDzȱDZȱ ŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖř ŖŖŘŗřŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱŘśȱǻŘǼDZȱŗŚşȬŗŜŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ ȬȬ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱŝřȱǻŘǼDZȱ 333-341. ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱDZȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ. ȱȱęȱ ŘśȱǻŗǼDZȱŞřȬşřǯ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȓǰȱȬ Ĵǰȱǯȱŗǯȱ- ȱȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦǵƽśřśǛ ǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŝǯȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱǯȱȱřşŖȱǻŜŜśşǼDZȱŚşŝȬśŖŖǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǯǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ ȱȱȱęȱ- ȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻŗşŜŖȬŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŞŘȱǻŘǼDZȱŗŝŝȬŗŞŖǯ ǰȱǯȱŗşşŘǯȱȱȱ ȱȱDZȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ Ȭ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȬŚśŝȱȱ Ȭ Ȭ ȬȬşŖȬŘǯȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢Ĵǰȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ¡ǯǯȦ ęȦȦŗŖŘǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱěȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŝȱǻŚŖǼDZȱŗŝŘŚŜȬŗŝŘśŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱ - ǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȬ ǰȱǯȱ ȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŚŘŝȱǻŜşŝŖǼDZȱŗŚśȬŗŚŞǯ ȱǻǯǯȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱŘŖŖŘȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯ ǯȦȦŘŖŖŘȦȦǯ Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Southeast USA 209
ȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱŘŖŖŜȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȬ- ȱǯȱǰȱDZȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ¢ ǯȦ- ȦŗřŗŗŗŚȦĢ ŖŜȬǯǯ ȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ. Cedar Key, DZȱȱęȱ¡ȱĜǯȱĴDZȦȦęǯǯĚǯȦ ȏ¢ǯ Ȭ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ¢¡ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖśȱǻŚŖǼDZȱŗśŚśŘȬŗśŚśŝǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱęȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱřŚȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŘŗȬŘřŗǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşŞşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ęȱȱǻȱȱǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŜȱ ǻŗŖǼDZȱŗŝŝŜȬŗŝŞŚǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ¢¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ ȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱřśȱǻŜǼDZȱ ŗřŚŗȬŗřśŖǯ Chapter 10
Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA
COORDINATING LEAD AUTHOR Ge Sun ([email protected]; Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina)
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Sankar Arumugam (Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina) Peter V. Caldwell (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) Paul A. Conrads (US Geological Survey, South Carolina Water Science Center, Raleigh North Carolina) Alan P. Covich (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) James Cruise (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alabama- Huntsville, Huntsville, Alabama) John Feldt (NOAA/NWS/SERFC, Peachtree City, Georgia) Aris P. Georgakakos (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia) Richard T. McNider (Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, Alabama) Steven G. McNulty (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) Daniel A. Marion (Center for Bottomland Hardwoods Research, USDA Forest Service, Hot Springs, Arkansas) Vasu Misra (Meteorology Department, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida) Todd C. Rasmussen (Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, The University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Luigi Romolo (Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) Adam Terando (Climate Change Science Center, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina) 210 Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA 211
ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŗŗȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱŚśƖȱȱŝśƖȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱśŖƖȱȱȱ¡ȱśŖȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ- ǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱęǰȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȁ ȱȂȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ - ter shortages due to recurring severe droughts and the increasing levels of consump- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴǯȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ stresses implied by climate changes are beginning to concern all economic sectors ǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱ- tions due to climate change have profound impacts to ecosystems and society. The ȱȱȱȱȱǻŗǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱśŖȱ¢DzȱǻŘǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱDzȱȱǻřǼȱȱȱ ȱȱ management strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change across the southeastern region.
Key Findings f ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ ǰȱ ȱǰȱĚ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ f ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱ¢ȱŘŖśŖȱȱȱ¢- ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱ the atmosphere. f ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ f ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ changes in rainfall that either increase rainfall erosivity or decrease vegetative cover protection. f ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Appalachians. 212 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
f ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ to climate change. f ¢ȱǰȱȱěǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱǻȱȱĚǼȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ f ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ - ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȯ ȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ availability. f ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ irrigated agriculture and bioenergy development, must be carefully evaluated to ¡£ȱȱěȱȱȬęǯ
10.1 Water Resources in the Southeast
ȱŘŖŖşȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱĚǰȱȱ ȱ- ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ More descriptions of climate change in the SE region can be found in Chapter 2 of this ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŞŖŖŖȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱĚǰȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱǻȱřȱȱśǼȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱŘŖŖśȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ
10.2 Key Constraints to Water Resources in the Southeast
Changing Climate ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¢- ȱĴǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ¢ȱŘŖŖŚǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA 213
ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱDzȱȱ- DzȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȬȱ£ǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£- ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ
Sea Level Rise ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘȱȱ¢ȱŘŖśŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŗşşşǼǯȱȱȱĴȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ may alter channel behavior far upstream of the estuaries and coastline.
Rising Water Use for Energy Generation ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȃ Ȭ¢ȱ¡ǰȄȱ- ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ¢ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ- ěȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝȬŘŖŖŞȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ
Increasing Water Use for Irrigation ȱŘŖŖŞȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǼȱȱȱȱĜȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ measures. In order to maintain a robust agricultural economy and food prices, there is 214 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ- ȱȱȱȱŚŖȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱěȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ Ě ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ
Changing Land Use and Land Cover ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱhe North Carolina ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¡- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢¢ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱęǯȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡- ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱĚȱ Ě ȱě¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ £ȱŘŖŗŗǼ. In the Appa- ȱǰȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ £ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ
Insufficient Water Storage ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ȭ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬĚ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȬĚ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ¡ȱ śŖȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ systems if projected climate changes occur or projections become more certain.
Unique Biodiversity ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA 215
Unique Cultures The racial legacy in the SE has left an imprint on educational institutions both from segregation and desegregation, and environmental perceptions. Trying to bridge the ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ African-American and rural communities, but also the emerging Latin-American com- munities. In addition, there is increasing evidence that the poor and elderly in the SE ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ
10.3 Historical Climate Trends ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱÛȬȱȱǻǼǰȱȱȬȱ- ȱǻǼȱȱȱęȱȱȱǻǼȱǻȱǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱŘǼǯȱ Across the region, mean air temperature increased 0.9oȱ ȱŗşŝŖȱȱŘŖŖŞȱǻ ȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱŘŖƖȱȱřŖƖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ- ȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱŘȱȱȱǼȱȱ ŗśƖȱȱŘŖƖȱȱŗşśŞȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱřŖȱ¢ȱǻŗşŝŞȱȱŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱǻŗşŚŞȱȱŗşŝŝǼȱ ǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ Ǽȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǻȱǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘǯśǚȱȱřǯśǚȱ ȱȱ¡ȱśŖȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ the SE can be found in Chapter 2.
10.4 Uncertainty in Predicting Future Climate and Hydrologic Impacts ȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȂ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱĴȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱ £ȱǻȱŘǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱĚ ǰȱȱ ȱ¢Dzȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ
ȱȱȱ2 ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱȱ 216 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǻȱȱŝȱȱŗŗȱȱȱǯǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ be uncertain. Similarly, ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱĚǼȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱCon- ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜǯȱ
10.5 Water Resources Impacts of Climate Change ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯ
Water Supply Ě ȱȱȱŗşŚŖȱȱŗşşşȱ ȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşşşǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşŝŖȱǻGroismanȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȬĴȬȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ǰȱ- ȱȱȃȬȬȄȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗşŞŖȱȱŗşşşȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŗǼȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱŘƖȱȱ¢ȱŗƖȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱśŖȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA 217
ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖśǼȱȱěȱ ȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ increase 2% for a 1% increase in precipitation. ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱ ȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŜǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¡ȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱ¡ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱ Ǽȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱěȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱĚȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ęȱȱȱȬĴȬȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȁȱ Ȃǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ - ȱȱěȱ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ
ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ Ȭŗǰȱ ȬŘǰȱ ȬŘǰȱȱ Ȭŗȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŗŖȱȱȱȱǻřǯŝƖȱ ȱŘŖŖŗȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǼȱȱśŖȱȱǻŗŞƖȱȱŘŖŖŗȱȱŘŖŗŖȱǼȱ¢ȱŘŖŜŖȱ ǻȱŗŖǯŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱǻȱǀȱŖǯŖśǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱDzȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ- ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ- ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱŘǯśƖȱȱȱǻȱŗŖǯŗȱȱŗŖǯŘǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŘśǰȱȱěȱ ȱŘŖŘśȱȱŘŖŚśǰȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŚśȱǻȱŗŖǯŗǼȱ 218 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES Water Yield (in) Yield Water
Figure 10.1 Predicted Southeast-wide 10-year moving-mean annual water yield. The wide green band represents the range in predicted water yield over the four climate projections (Marion et al. 2012).
Trend in water yield -6.4% to -5% -5% to -2.5% -2.5% to 0% 0% to 2.5% 2.5% to 3.6%
Figure 10.2 Mean trends predicted for 2010 to 2060 in mean annual water yield, normalized by the 2001 to 2010 mean annual water yield. Hatched area represents locations where the predicted trend in water yield is statistically significant (p < 0.05) (Marion et al. 2012). Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA 219
ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŜŖȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŗŖǯřǼȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȬǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡- ȱȱŗŚƖȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱDzȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŗƖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱŖǯřŖȱȱŘŖŖŗȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŖǯŚŚȱȱŘŖśŗȱȱŘŖŜŖǯȱȱ ȱȱȱŖǯŚŖȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǰȱãã¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ protocols.
Low Flows ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ ȱĚ ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱ ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱ¡¢ȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱǻŗşşşDzȱŘŖŖśǼȱȱęȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖȱȱĚ ȱ ȱŗşŚŖȱȱŗşşşȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȬȱ ǻǼȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡- ȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȬȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŜŖȱȱşŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱĚ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŜǯŗƖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǻ Ȭŗǰȱ ȬŘǰȱ ȬŘǰȱȱ ȬŗǼDzȱȱȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ
Water Quality ȱȱěȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ 220 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 10.3 Mean annual Water Supply Stress Index (a ratio of water demand/water supply) based on four climate projections for (a) Baseline (2001 to 2010), and (b) Future (2051 to 2060) (Marion et al. 2012). Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA 221
ȱǯȱȱȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŗşşşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ- ǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşşşǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŘśǚȱǻȱŗşşŖǰȱ Ĵ ȱȱȱŗşşŝǼǯȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱĚ ǰȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŖǰȱĴ ȱȱȱŗşşŝǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȬȱȱ ȱĚȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşşřǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȬ ȱȱȱȱşŗȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŜŘȱȱȱşŗȱȱ ȱęȱǰȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻsǼȱ ȱŗşŜŖȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŜŘȱȱ ȱęȱ ȱ ȱŖǯŗŚǚȱȱǰȱȱȱŖǯŖŞǚȱȱŖǯŘşǚȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ
ecosystems than mean annual Tsȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ
ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱsǯȱȱȱşŗȱǰȱŝŗȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱ
ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱsȱ ȱŗşŜŖȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡- mum monthly Tsȱȱȱŝŗȱȱ ȱŖǯŘŖǚȱȱǰȱȱȱŖǯŖŚǚȱȱŖǯřŝǚȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱşŗȱȱ ȱȱȱ
ȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱsȱǻŖǯŘŗǚȱȱŖǯřśǚȱȱǼȱȱ
ŘŖŗŗȱȱŘŖŜŖǯȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱs over all sites ȱȱȱ ȱŖǯŘśǚȱȱǯ
Soil Erosion and Sedimentation. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱǰȱȱȱ energy of rainfall or the amount and type of vegetation cover resisting erosion. In- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ȱȬěȱ¢ȱȱǻȬǼȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ amount of rainfall occurring at a given location over a long period of time, and as such ȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ potential changes in future surface erosion related to climate change. In general, the Ȭȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŗşşřǰȱǰȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŘǼȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱŘȱȱǼȱȱȱęȬȱȱȱȱȱ 222 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
studies. This study suggests that large future changes in soil erosion potential concen- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱěȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
Aquatic Biota ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢- ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ services that are the product of past human actions that have altered the landscape can ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ deposit multiple centimeters of rain in one event. Although much uncertainty remains ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱŗŗǼǯ
Salinity Intrusion ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŗşşşǼǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱĚ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱŘǰŖŖŖȱΐȱ-1ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱĚ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱŗȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŖƖȱȱ ȱȱĚ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘśƖǰȱ Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA 223
ȱȱȱŗŖŖȱ¢ǯȱȱŘśƖȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŝŖŖȱ¢ǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱ¡ȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ
Climate Change Implications for River Basin Management: A Case Study of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬęǯȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȬĴȬȱǻǼȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ Ȭȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ
ęǯȱȱȬĴȬȱǻǼȱȱȱȱŗşǰŜŖŖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗǰŗŚŖȱȱȱ ȱŘśƖȱȱŚśƖȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ŘǯşȦŖǯŘȱǻȦ Ǽȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼǰȱDZȱŘǯśȦŘǯŘȱǰȱȱ ȱȱDZȱŗǯŞȦŗǯŚȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻřŜşȱǼȱȱęȱȱǻŘŝŜȱǼȱ¢ȱǰȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ ŗřŗȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱęȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ ȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗśǰŖŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱ ¢ȱȱŘŖŖřȱ ȱȱȱęȱ¡ȱǞřŖŖȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǞŝřȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱ¡¢ȱŜŘƖȱȱȱȂȱǯȱ
Integrated Water Resources Assessment and Planning Framework. ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǻȱŗŖǯŚǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗŖǯŚǯȱ ȱǻŗşŜŖȬŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢£ȱęȱȱȱ- line conditions. The analysis clearly suggests that climatic change is already occur- ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǻŘŖŖŖȬŘŖşşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱǻŗȱȱ Řȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗřȱ Ǽǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŗŘ¡ŗŘȱ 224 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 10.4 Integrated Water Resources Assessment and Planning Framework (Georgakakos et al. 2010 and 2011a).
Ǽȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ¢¢ȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ě ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ£- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȭ ȱȱȱȱȱ Ě ȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ processes aimed at developing consensus on adaptation measures, management strate- gies, and performance monitoring indicators. The assessment and planning process is ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
Water Resources Assessments. ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ- ȱȱŗȱȱŘȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA 225
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȬȱĚ ȱǰȱȱ- ȱȱǻ ȱȱ.ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱDzȱȱDzȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱDzȱDzȱȱ¢ ȱ- ǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱDZȱ
• ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ęǰȱ ȱ ęȱ ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱǯȱȱŘȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗǯȱ • ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŘǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱ- agement procedures and tools have yet to be adopted and made operational by federal and state agencies.
Case Study: The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin
ȱȬĴȬȱǻǼȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ- ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ tains across the Piedmont and Southeastern ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱśŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ǻȱŗŖǯŗǯǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ęǰȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱĴǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ multimillion dollar recreational opportunities for ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱęȱȱǯȱȱȬ ȱĚ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱ The main stem rivers support hydroelectric, ther- people throughout the region, especially from ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ metro Atlanta. Additional recreational opportuni- ǰȱǰȱȱȱǻȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǼǯȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱĴ- ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ hoochee River. main stem dams. Many small impoundments ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǯǯȱǰȱǰȱ Ǽȱȱȱȱ ȬĚ ȱȱȱȱȱŚŞȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ of metro Atlanta, across the Piedmont and onto ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ Continued on next page 226 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Continued from previous page Case Study: The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin
ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ Research Reserve. ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡- Seminole, a main stem impoundment noted for ¢ȱşŖƖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱ- estuary supports a multimillion dollar production ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ ȱęȱǻ¢ǰȱǰȱǼȱȱęęǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ Ȭȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱ ȱĚȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻŗŜȱȱŘŜȱǼȱȱ island estuary designated as a National Estuarine ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ high river discharges and are thought to re- ȱ¢ȱȱȬ ȱęȱ- ǯȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ food production used by oysters. There have been decades of discus- sions, sometimes contentious, among ȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ Alabama, the three states that compose ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱDZȱ ȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱȱ Ǽǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ǻ ȱǼǰȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱęȱȱ ȱȱ ǻȱȱȱȱȱȱ federally protected species in middle and ȱǼǰȱȱȱęǯȱ- ę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ supplies for upstream users, especially ȱǰȱȱĜȱ- ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ optimal salinity ranges for oyster produc- ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱȬȱ- tions of prolonged droughts, high storm Ě ȱȱȱǰȱȱ Ȭȱ Figure 10.1.ACF Map of the Apalachicola-Chattachoochee-Flint ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ River Basin. The basin includes drainage areas in three states with most of the catchment in Georgia. Continued on next page Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA 227
Continued from previous page Case Study: The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin variables that may prove detrimental coastal ęǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱ anthropogenic stresses on these interconnected ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȬ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ- ity and river discharge. In addition, projected ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¡¢ȱ ȱ Figure 10.2.ACF Spring Creek historically flowed Ě ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- into Georgia’s Lake Seminole. During recent prolonged ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ droughts, the channel has dried out and formed isolated ¡ȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱ pools. Photo by: Andrea Fritts, Warnell School of Forest- ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ- ry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia-Athens. ȱ¡ǯȱȱȱĚ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ chicola River are federally listed as endangered ȱDzȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱ ǻȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ Ě ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱǼȱǻȱ ȱǻȱŗŖǯŘǯǼǯ ŗŖǯřǯǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱĜȱ ȱ¡¢ȱŗŘśȱ ȱęǰȱřřȱ Ě ȱȱȬ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱřŖȱ¢ęǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱǯȱȱȱřŖȱ hosts to complete larval development and dis- ęǰȱǰȱȱ¢ęȱǻǼȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŗŖǯŚǯǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ These species provide important ecosystem be discovered, such as a previously undescribed ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ species of bass, Micropterus sp., that occurs in the ęȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱ¢ǯȱ feed on suspended micro-algae, bacteria and ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ- řŖŖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- tion, since mussels are among the most sensitive, ȱȱȱǰȱŘŝŞȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ long-lived species that complete their life cycles ȱȱǰȱȱřřȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ
Continued on next page 228 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Continued from previous page Case Study: The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin
they are good bioindicators of increases in con- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱ locations. ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱ Ȭęȱȱ Ě ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ingly challenged to implement long-term plans ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ Figure 10.3.ACF Striped mussel (Hamotia suban- ǯȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ- gulata), (commonly called shiny rayed pocketbook), ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ is a federally endangered species found in the ACF ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ- River Basin. Source: www.discoverlife.org, Univer- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱ- sity of Georgia. sion and collaboration to bring about resolution.
Figure 10.4.ACF Life cycle of freshwater mussels. Adult mussels produce small ectoparasitic larvae that at- tach to the gills of fish. The larvae grow and are dispersed by the fish to complete their growth in sediments. Some mussel species have evolved specialized mantel tissue resembling small fish that undulate. This move- ment attracts predatory fish closer to the adult mussel and increases chances of the larvae becoming attached to the fish gills. Source: Diagram from Cummings and Graf, 2009. The MUSSEL Project. http://www.mussel- project.net/. Funded by The National Science Foundation and USGS. Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA 229
10.6 Mitigation and Adaptation Options
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻCarlisleȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŗŖǯŗǼȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ
Table 10.1 Potential Adaptation Options for Managing Hydrologic Impact and Risks from Climate Change.
Hydrologic Impacts Risks to Ecosystems Adaptation Options
ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱDzȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ Dzȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢- Dzȱȱ ȱ- tems, socioeconomics, and business Dzȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱ ȱDzȱ¢ȱ Dzȱȱ adaptive management. Evapotranspiration increase ¢ȱDzȱ ęDzȱ ȱȱȱDzȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ Dzȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱĚ ǰȱȱĚ ȱ Dzȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱDzȱȱ ǰȱĚ sedimentation ȱȱDzȱ increase evapotranspiration by ȱȱDzȱȱ ȱȱ¢ ȱĚ ȱDzȱ ȱ¢ȱDzȱęȱ ȱ ȱDzȱȱěȬ ȱDzȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ capacity ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱDzȱȱȱ ȱDzȱȱĚ ȱȱ
ǻ2ȱǰȱ 4ǰȱ¡Ǽȱȱ reservoirs ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱDzȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱ ȱęȱ shading Soil erosion, sedimentation increase ȱ¢ȱDzȱȱ Enhance best management practices ȱDzȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǻǼDzȱȱȱěDzȱ treatment £ȱȱȱȱěȱ from roads to streams Chemical loading increase ȱ¢ȱDzȱȱ ȱĚ ȱ¢Dzȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ 230 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
A limited number of studies have considered adaptation options that might reduce ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ- ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ęǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱ ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ- ȱȱęȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ in future land planning. Current best management practices for reducing nonpoint ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĴȱĚȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜ- ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ- £ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȬȱ past decisions in light of the changing climate, and ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȦȱ ȱȬȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŗǼȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ and adaptive decisions made over time. Such an approach helps identify robust solu- ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǻŗşşŝǼȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŘǼȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ development of climate forecasts at seasonal and interannual scales could be useful in ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯ
10.7 References
ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŘśDZȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱ ¢DZȱ¢ȱȱ DZȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ Ȭǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯǯȱ ȱDZȱ¢Ȃȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱ- cerned Scientists. November. Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA 231
ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ĴǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŞŚȱǻŗŘǼDZȱ ŗŝŞřȮŗŝşŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ £ £ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŖŞǼǰȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ ǰȱ ĵDZȱ ȱǯȱŘŗŖǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȮǰȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱDZȱ ȱȱ Publishers. Dordrecht, The Netherlands. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ £ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ- ǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŚǯŗǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱȱ- ȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱǯȱşDZȱŚŘŜřȬŚřŖŚǰȱDZŗŖǯśŗşŚȦȬşȬŚŘŜřȬŘŖŗŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱĚ ȱǰȱȱ- ȱȱDZȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱşȱǻśǼDZȱŘŜŚȬŘŝŖǯȱDZŗŖǯŗŞşŖȦŗŖŖŖśřǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱŗşŝşȬŘŖŖśȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱŗřŞȱǻŚǼDZȱ ŗŗŝŘȬŗŗŞśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŗşşŝǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ uncertainty.ȱȱȱȱřřȱǻŚǼDZȱŞŗŝȬŞŘşǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǻ ȱ ǼǯȱŘśȱǻŗřǼDZȱ ŚśŗŗȬŚśŘŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱęȱ ȱ ȱŘŖŖŜȬśŗŞŝǰȱŗřŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱŚȱȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¡ǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱ ȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ - er Savannah River Estuary. Conference Proceeding Paper of South Carolina Environmental ǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱŘŖŗŖǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ řśDZȱŗśřşȬŗśśŖǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȬ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱŚŜȱǻŜǼDZȱŗŗśşȬŗŗŝŖǯȱ DZȱŗŖǯŗŗŗŗȦǯŗŝśŘȬŗŜŞŞǯŘŖŗŖǯŖŖŚŞřǯ¡ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ DZȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ǯȱȬŞŘŝǰȱ ȱ¢ȱŗşşŚǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȦȬŖŞŘŝȦȬŖŞŘŝǯ ǯȱȱȱȱȱŗŜǰȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȬȱȱȱȱ Ě ȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱs - ȱŚŚȱǻşǼǰȱŖşŚŖŚǯȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŜŖŖśŞśśǯ 232 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱ- veloping multimodel combinations. ¢ȱȱ ȱŗřŞȱǻŜǼDZȱŘŚŚŝȬŘŚŜŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ ¡DZȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱŘŞşȱǻśŚŞŝǼDZȱŘŖŜŞȬŘŖŝŚǯȱDZŗŖǯŗŗŘŜȦ ǯŘŞşǯśŚŞŝǯŘŖŜŞȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȬŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ GAR 2011. 22. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǵȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŜǼDZȱ ŘŖŚşȬŘŖŜŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱ 321. ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱDzȱ ȱ - ȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱŘŘşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱDZȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢¢ on ȱǰȱŚŗŘȬŚŗřȱǻ ¢ǼDZȱřŚȬŚŜǯȱǯȦŗŖǯŗŖŗŜȦǯ¢ǯŘŖŗŗǯŖŚǯŖřŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱ¡DZȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱDZȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱřřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ projections. ȱȱȱŗşȱǻŗŝǼDZȱŚřŘŜȬŚřŚřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ from in situ observations. ȱȱ ¢¢ȱśȱǻŗǼDZȱŜŚȬŞśǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱ ȱȱ- ment strategies for California. Pardee RAND Graduate School, Santa Monica, CA. Graduate Thesis. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȂȱȱ ȱ DZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱDZȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Solutions and Department of Civil Engineering, Environmental, and Geomatics Engineering. ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱěȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱŞȱǻŘǼDZŗŘśȬŗřşǯ ȱǻ ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝDZȱ¢ȱ- ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯ ǯȱǰȱȱ ǯȱǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝDZȱ¢ȱǯȱ ǰȱ ĵDZȱ ǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱDZȱ ȱ¢Ȭȱ¡ȱȱ ȱǰȱŘŖŗŖȬŘŖŚŖǯȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱǯȱ ǯȱǯȱȱǯȱǻ ȱǼǯ Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA 233
ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱŞȱǻşǼDZȱŚŜŗȬŚŜŜǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşŜǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱDZȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ 32 ǻŗǼDZȱŗŗŝȬŗŘŚǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱŗřŚŚǰȱśŘǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱǰȱDZȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŗŘȱǻŚǼDZȱŗŗŗŗȬŗŗŘŖǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ DZȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ ȱȱǯǯȱǯǰȱǯȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǯȱǰȱ¢DZȱȱ ȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱěȱȱěǰȱĚȱǰȱȱȱ discharges on the coral reefs of Puerto Rico. ȱȱȱȱŘśȱǻŗǼDZȱŗŞşȬŘŖŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱ¢ȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŖŝȦ ŖŖřŞŘȬŖŗŗȬŗŘŗŚȬ¢ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŘŚȱǻśǼDZȱŗŚşşȬŗśŖŜǯDZȱĴDZȦȦ¡ǯǯȦŗŖǯŗŗŝśȦŘŖŗŖ řŞŘşǯŗ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴ ŘŜȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŘŝȬŘřŖǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗşŚŖȬŗşşşǯȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱŘŜȱǻŜǼDZȱŚŞşȬśŖŗǯ Liu, Y.Q. 2011. A numerical study on hydrological impacts of forest restoration in the southern ȱǯȱ¢¢ȱŚȱǻŘǼDZȱŘşşȬřŗŚǯȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŖŘȦǯŗŝŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ- ęȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱǯȱ ǯȱǯȱȱǯȱǻ ȱǼǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯǯȱ ȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱǯȱ DZȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱǯȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǯȱ ǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ ȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǯȱ ȱ Technical Report. ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ States. ¢ȱȱĴȱŘşȱǻŘŚǼDZȱŘŗŞśǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱŗŗŜȱǻŚǼDZȱŗŜŞȬŗŝŗǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǼǰȱǯȱ ǯȱǯȱȱǯȱǻ ȱǼǯ Ĵ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşŝǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱśŖȱǻŗǼDZȱ śŖȬŜŝǯȱDZȱŗŖǯŗŗŗŗȦǯŗŖşśȬŞŜŚşǯŗşşŝǯŖŗřřşǯ¡ǯ 234 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯȱ ǯȱ ǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱǯȱǻ ȱ Ǽǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱŗşşŖǯȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ. ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŝȱǻŜǼDZȱ ŗŖŜśȬŗŖŝŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢DZȱȱȱȱ- man activities. ȱȱǭȱ¢ȱŚşȱǻŝǼDZȱŝřȬŞřǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ ȱ availability in a changing climate. ȱŚřŞȱǻŝŖŜŜǼDZȱřŚŝȬřśŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ £ £ǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱ ǯ ǯȱěǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ¢ȱȱDZȱȱ ȱǯȱȱřŗşȱǻśŞŜřǼDZȱ śŝřȬśŝŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴǯȱřŜǰȱŗśŝŖŘDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖş ŖřŞśŘśǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱ¢ȱ interpretation. ȱȱ ¢¢ȱŘŗŞȱǻřȬŚǼDZȱŗŘŞȬŗŚŗǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ě ȱȱȱǵȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱřŜȱǻŘǼDZȱřŚŝȬřŜŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ the 21st century. ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱśŜȱǻřǼDZȱŘŘşȬŘřŘǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ DZȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ 43 ǻŘǼDZȱŚŚŖȬŚśŘǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ £¢Ȭ£ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ £- ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱǯȱřřŖŗȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱǯ Ȃ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sci- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŜȱǻřśǼDZȱŗŚŝŝřȬŗŚŝŝŝǯȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŝřȦǯŖşŖŝŜŗŖŗŖŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱDZȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǯȱ- ȱȱŗŝřȱǻŘȬřǼDZȱŗŘşȬŗśŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŗşşřǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŚȱǻŘǼDZȱŜŗȬŝŘǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱDZȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱĚǯȱǰȱȱ DZȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ- DZȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱŗřDZȱŘŖŜȬŘŘŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ£ȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ £ȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱŚśǰȱŗŗŚŖşDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖşŖŖŝŞŘŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱŚŞȱǻŝǼDZȱŗŚŜŚȬŗŚŞŘǯ Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA 235
ȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱǭȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱǰȱDZȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ¢ǯ ǯ ȦȦȦȦ¡¢Ȧ ȏ¢ȏȦȏȏȏ ȏ ȏȏĚȏŗŘŘŖŖşǯǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¡ȱȱȬ ĜȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȬ- ę¢ǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŗŝȱǻŚǼDZȱŗŝŘŖȬŗŝřŘǯȱDZŗŖǯŗŗŗŗȦǯŗřŜśȬŘŚŞŜǯŘŖŗŖǯŖŘřŝŘǯ¡ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- tion. ¢ȱȱĴȱǻřşǼȱŗşŚŖŘǰȱŜǯȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŘ ŖśřřŜşǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ - ȱȱŚŚȱǻŜǼDZȱŗŚŚŗȬŗŚśŝǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ DZȱȬ ȱ DZȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱȱȱǯ ǯȱ¢ȱǻ ȱ- Ǽǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢. ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŗşşŖǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȦȦ ȱǯȱǯȱȬřȬşŖȬŖŖŜǯȱ¢ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŘŚǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ £ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱDZȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ £ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱȱǯǯȱ ǰȱşȬŞŚǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ¢ȱěȱȱ£- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǯȱȱ ȱŗśȱǻŘŖǼDZȱŗȬŘśǯȱ ãã¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱ ȱ ȱDZȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱŘŞşȱǻśŚŝŝǼDZȱŘŞŚȬŘŞŞǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ¢¢ǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ£ȱȬȱ- ȱȱȱŗǯśȬ¢ȱĚȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ- proach. ȱ ȱŗśȱǻŗŞǼDZȱŗȬŗŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢¢ȱŗŗȱǻŚǼDZȱŗŖŖŝȬŗŖŗŞǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ £ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱŚŝǰȱŖŖ ŗŘDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖŖŗŖŘŞř. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ and river temperature research. ¢ȱȱŘŘȱǻŝǼDZȱşŖŘȬşŗŞǯȱDZȱŗŖǯŗŖŖŘȦ¢ǯŜşşŚǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ climatic and hydrological factors. ¢ȱȱ ȱśŘȱǻŗǼDZȱŝŚȬŞśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşřǯȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ stream. ¢ȱȱŝȱǻŗǼDZȱŗşȬřŘǯȱŗşşřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱ ¢¢ 12 ǻŜǼDZȱŗřśşȬŗřŝŝǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯǯȦ- ȦȦȦ¢ȏǯǯȱȱȱŝȱȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ 236 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ- ǰȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȬśŚDZȱŚśśȬŚŝŜ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ¢ȱȱśŚDZȱŗŖŗȮŗŘřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱŘŗȱǻŘŗǼDZȱŘşŚŚȬŘşśŜǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱ ChangeȱŗŗŗȱǻřȬŚǼDZȱşŚśȬşŝŘǯȱȱǰȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŖŝȦŗŖśŞŚȬŖŗŗȬŖŗŜŝȬşǯ Chapter 11
The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Charles S. Hopkinson ([email protected]; Department of Marine Sciences, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Alan P. Covich (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Christopher B. Craft (School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, Indiana) Kristine DeLong (Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Louisiana) Thomas W. Doyle (United States Geological Survey National Wetlands Research Center) Neal Flanagan (Duke University, Wetland Center, Nicholas School of the Environment Durham, North Carolina) Mary C. Freeman (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Ellen R. Herbert (School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, Indiana) Andrew Mehring (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Jacqueline E. Mohan (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Catherine M. Pringle (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Curtis J. Richardson (Duke University, Wetland Center, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, North Carolina)
237 238 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡- ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ¢ ȱȱȱǯ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱęǯȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ change. If our grandchildren are to be able to appreciate these natural ecosystems in ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ engineering of the landscape.
Key Findings
ȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǻŗǼȱ ȱȱ¢¢ȱǻȱȱ ǼȱǻŘǼȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱǻřǼȱȱęǰȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ reefs. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱȱ- ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢Ȭ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱŘǼȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ
ȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽǰȱ¢ȱȱǻ 4Ǽȱȱȱ
¡ȱǻ2Ǽǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ2 concentrations in the atmosphere.
f ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ¡¢ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ draining the SE coastal plain. The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA 239
f ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¡ǯȱ f Ȭǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- tions of cold temperatures caused by climate change. f ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ rare longleaf pine savannas of the SE. f ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ2 emissions
ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ 2ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱǯ f ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǯ f ȱȱȱȱȬĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱęǰȱȱȱȱǯȱěȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱěǰȱ¡ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱǯȱ
ȱěȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ impact on natural ecosystems during the coming century. This aspect may also have the greatest policy relevance because society has the ability to control or regulate ȱěǰȱȱĚ ǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ¡ǰȱ - ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ Ě ȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ěȱȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ study. Available research suggests that future policy and management activities may ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ǯ 240 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
11.1 Background
In this chapter, the major ecosystems of the SE and Caribbean region are discussed, ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱę¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȬĴȱǯȱ Not all natural ecosystems of the SE are discussed, only those that are considered to be most vulnerable to changes in the hydrologic cycle as a result of changes in tem- ǰȱǰȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǻȱŗŗǯŗǼǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ assessments of climate change in the SE. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘȱ- ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘȱȱŗȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱŘȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖǯȱȱŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȬȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱŗǯŘɃȱȱŘǯŘɃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚǯŚɃȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱǻȱȱśǼǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬǯȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱĚ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱŖǯŘȱȱȱŘȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ
11.2 Southeastern Freshwater Aquatic Ecosystems
ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱDzȱęȬȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢Dzȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱDzȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA 241
Figure 11.1 Maritime forests on some of the few remaining, relatively intact barrier islands of the Southeast, for example on Ossawbaw Island, GA, are vulnerable to climate change through the devastating impact of winds, surge, salt spray, and shoreline erosion from hurricanes and sea level rise. This artistic rendering by Philip Juras (Passing Storm, 2009, oil on canvas) shows remnants of the maritime forest now in the intertidal beach zone.
Streams, Rivers, Lakes and Reservoirs ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱĚȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȬȱǻȱȱŗŖŖȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ǻ¡ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱ2ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ǻȱȱĚǼȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ£ǰȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ 242 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǯȱ ȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡- ǰȱ¢ȱȬ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱ ȱŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡¢ȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȬȱĚ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȬȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŗşşŞǰȱ ¢ȱŗşŞŞǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ£ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşŝǰ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȬȱȱǻĴ ȱȱȬĴ ȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǼȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱęȱęȱȱǻ¡ȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱǻȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱǻȱ ĚǼȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŗǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱ¡¢ȱ¡¢ǰȱǯȱ¡¢ȱǼȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ both marine and estuarine habitats as adults and reproduce in coastal rivers along the ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱĚ ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȬ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA 243
ȱȱǯȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱǯȱȱȱǻǯȱǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ life, are also of particular concern as their southern range, limited by temperature, is ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢Dzȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ¢ȱȱĴȱŘŖŖŘǰȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱĜȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ dynamics that have not previously been observed. Currently, many species declines ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱǰȱȱ ȱěȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ¡ȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ę¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȬȱĚ ȱ¢ȱǰȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱĚ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ Ȭ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱĴȱȱęǯȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ loading from agricultural and urban areas may result in algal blooms that alter food ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱǻĴȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŗǰȱĴȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱĚ Ȭȱ¢ǯ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- peratures. Non-native subtropical and tropical species, including many species already ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱǰȱȱǯǼǰȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱǰȱ- ȱǯǼȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱĵ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻ¢ȱȱĴȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 244 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȬȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱěȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ ¢¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱěȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱĚǯ
11.3 Southeastern Savannas
ȬȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱśƖȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŖŖǰȱ ¢ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǻȱŗŗǯŘǼȱęȱ¢- ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱǻǼǰȱȱ¢ȬȬȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱśŖȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşŞŚǼǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¡ęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǯǼǰȱ ȱǻȱǯǼǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ¢ȱȱǻȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱǯǼȱȱȱ¢Dzȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱȱǻ£ȱǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱŘǯŘȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŜśŖȱȱŗşŖśȱȯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱęȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ Ě ȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻĴȱȱǯȱŗşŞŞǼǯȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱ peat moss and dead peat have ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱěȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱęȱ- ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA 245
Figure 11.2 Longleaf pine savanna of the southeastern Coastal Plain. This forest is actively managed through controlled burns on the Fort Stewart Military base in Georgia. Species diversity is particularly high in these ecosystems. While warmer winter temperatures may benefit the longleaf pine ecosystem in the northern range margin, the majority of longleaf pine savannas likely will fare less well due to increasing summertime droughts. (Photograph by Charles Hopkinson.)
and burning of drier vegetation and peat, as in other peatland ecosystems throughout ȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȂȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ- Ěȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǻ¡ȱ and ǯȱǼȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱĚ and ǯȱ ǼǯȱȱŗŖ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢£ȱȱ ȱȱ¢- tem productivity in forests across a range of soil moisture types and found that severe ȱěȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ 246 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱ ¢Ȭȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǼȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǻĚ- ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ¤£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ
11.4 Southeastern Freshwater Marshes and Swamps
ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱ- ¢ȱǼȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ continually isolated or connected via ephemeral streams. Land use changes for urban- £ȱȱȱę¢ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŗǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŗşşŝǰȱȱŗşşŝǰȱãã¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ȱǰȱtemperature ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǻȱȱȱŗşşşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱȱ and catchment hydrology predicted by global climate models include increasing fre- ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǼǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱěǰȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ- ¢ȱǻǯǯȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǻ ȱŘŖŖŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱŗşşŞǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱ change. The vast amount of carbon stored in the peat soils of the pocosins and Ever- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA 247
¢ȱĚ¡ȱȱȱǰȱȱ2, N2ǰȱȱ 4, depend not ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ- ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱĚȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȬȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŖǰŖŖŖȬȱǻşŞǰŞŚŘȬǼȱ ŗşŞśȱęȱ ȱȱŗȱȱřǯŞȱȱǻŗǯŗȱȱŚǯŘȱȱǼǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ĴȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱŖǯŘȱȱŗŗȱȱȱƺŘȱǻŚǯŝȱȱŘśŞȱȱȱ-2Ǽȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǻȱȱǼǰȱȱęȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŘŖŖŞȱȱŗŜǰŝŞśȱȱǻŚŗǰśŚşȱǼȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱŗŖȱȱȱȱǻŗŗȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ
Carolina Bays ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşşŞǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ěȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǻ¢£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢Ǽȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ
Pocosins ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱǯȱȱ¢¢ȱ 248 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱŗȱȱȱřȱȱǻǼǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ řŖŖȱȱǻřřŖǯŝȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱǻŗşşŘǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
¢ȱ ȱ 4ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱ
ȱȱ2 increased greatly in aerobic soils under drought conditions--a climate ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱȱŘǼǯȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŘǼȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ 4 release to the atmosphere
ȱȱ ȱ2 and N2ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ
4ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ2 release from dryer soils and seasonal
Ě¡ȱȱ2ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱǻŗşşŘǼȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱĚ¡ȱ ȱǯȱ
Southern Bottomland Swamp Communities ȱȱĴȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ Ěȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ¡ȱǼȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱǰȱ Ěȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱ ǼǰȱȱȱǻǯȱǼǰȱȱȱȱǻ¡ȱǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ęȱȱĚǯȱ ȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ ȱȱěȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱ¡ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ
Everglades The successional dynamics of the Everglades are mainly controlled by the interaction of ȱĴȱǻȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA 249
ȱȱĚȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱ ȱǻȱǰȱspp.ȱǼȱȱǻȱ ŗŗǯřǼȱ ȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ¢Ȭ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ more pronounced physiological limitations to inundation depth, duration, or both, and ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ǯȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȬȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻĴȱȱǯȱŗşşśǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¡£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ
Figure 11.3 Nymphaea open water slough surrounded by Sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense) in the central Everglades. The peat depths are 1.8 m at this site. Wetland prairies such as these are highly vulnerable to changes in the hydrologic cycle. While these systems are currently strong carbon sinks, under a warmer and drier climate they could become carbon sources emitting powerful greenhouse gases such as CH4, in addition to CO2. (Photograph by Curtis J. Richardson.) 250 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
11.5 Southeastern Tidal Marshes and Swamps ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ that drain to the coast. The magnitude of ecosystem services provided by these sys- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ęǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ.ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬ induced degradation of natural systems, are predicted to disappear at an accelerat- ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŗşşşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ - ǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱȱȱ- ȱĚ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱ ȱǼǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱ ŗŗǯŚǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻDžŖǯŘȱȦ ¢ǼȱȱȱȱŚǰŖŖŖȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ et al. 2002, Mudd et al.ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŘǯśȱȦ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘȱȱřȱȦ¢ȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻşǯśȱȦ¢Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ to accelerate SLR in the coming century resulting in a sea level increase of up to 2 m or ȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱǻȱȱŘǼǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ et al.ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ Richardson et al.ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŗşŞşǰȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖŗǰȱ et al. 2009, ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻĴ¢ et al.ȱŘŖŖŘǰȱ ě ȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA 251
ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱǻ et al.ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȮȱȱ ǻǼȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ- ȱŘȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŖȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ et al.ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ing storm energy and their loss leads to the increased vulnerability of human structures ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱ Climate models predict greater interannual variability in temperature and precipita- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚȱǰȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ coast. Changes in precipitation regimes, storms and anthropogenic alterations of fresh- ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯ
Figure 11.4 Tidal salt water marshes and swamps, such as this Spartina alterniflora marsh near Sapelo Island, GA, are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise. If they are unable to build in elevation as rapidly as sea level rises, they will revert to open-water areas. Salt marshes are critical habitats for most of the commercial fisheries of the SE USA. (Photograph by Christopher Craft.) 252 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ganic carbon by stimulating microbial decomposition, especially sulfate reduction, and ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ-
ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǻ2ȱȱ 4Ǽǰȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱęǰȱęǰȱȱȱǼȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ěȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ et al. 1999, Giblin ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻŚŖȱȱŜŖȱȱ ȱȱȱǼǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǻ et al. 2004, Langley ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱǻ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ
ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱřȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱŚȱǰȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱ¡ȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ- munities respond to climate change. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱǯȱǻŘŖŖśǼȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȬěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ- ȱ£ǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȃ ȱǰȄȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŘȱȱŘŖŖŚǰȱěȱȱ ȱŘśŖǰŖŖŖȱȱǻ et al. 2004, Silliman ȱǯȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŗŗǯśǼǯȱ ȱȱŞŖƖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ěȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA 253
ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ¢ȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱĴǼȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱ Ǽǯȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱǻ¢ȱ¢Dzȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱǼǯȱȱ ȱ and feeding activities destroy root systems and depress soil accretion leading to ero- ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱřŖŖȱȱŝŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ŘǚȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱ storm events may aid in the spread of invasive propagules, and repeated hurricane ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- terparts, for instance ȱ over ǯȱ¡ȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ
Figure 11.5 Tidal freshwater forest along the Satilla River in coastal Georgia. These forests are particularly vulnerable to salt water intrusion that occurs with sea level rise. Vegetation likely will be replaced by salt tolerant marsh species, such as Zizaniopsis sp. During the transition these environments can emit high rates of greenhouse gases, including CO2 and CH4. (Photograph by Christopher Craft.) 254 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ aggressive invasive species, ȱ¡ and ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱǻȱȱȱŗşŞŗȱȱŗşŞśǰȱȱȱ- ȱŗşŞŜǰȱ ȱǯȱŗşŞŜǰȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱęȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ £ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ Sea level rise is facilitating mangrove encroachment on the salt marsh dominant species ȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ et al. 2010, Krauss ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ Though there is some evidence that mangroves may build elevation in response to SLR ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ et al. ŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱęȱǻǯǯǰȱęǰȱǰȱȱȱęǼȱȱ recreational activities. ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ Craft ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱ ęǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱęȱǻȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ Many of these species rely on the preservation of an entire estuarine landscape because ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǼȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱĴ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ et al. 2010, van de Pol ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ Recent model simulations suggest the combined impacts of accelerated SLR and ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ et al. 2009, ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŗǰȱ et al. 2009, Geselbracht ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ rivers to the ocean.
11.6 Coral Reefs of the Southeast USA
ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢- ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ȱȱ- The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA 255
ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŗŗǯŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ǼDzȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǼDzȱȱ- ȱȱǻ ȱ ȱǰȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱ ¢ȂȱǼDzȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ- ȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ
Figure 11.6 Location of coral reefs in the SE USA including Flower Garden Banks (FGB), Florida Middle Grounds (FMG), Pulley Ridge (PR), Dry Tortugas (DT), Florida Keys (FK), Biscayne (B), southeast Florida reefs (SEFL), Gray’s Reef (GR), Navassa Island (NI), Puerto Rico (PRR), and US Virgin Islands (USVI). Orange areas are coral reefs from ReefBase (http://reefgis.reefbase.org/). 256 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱŗŖƖȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱ ȱŘŗƖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŗşŝŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱşŖƖȱǻȱȱ ȱ ȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ and ǯȱǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŜȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱŞŘȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȬ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ǰȱȱŘŖŗŖȱ ȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ǰȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱěȱȱȱę- ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱǰȱȱěǰȱ¡ǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ¡ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱŗşŞřǰȱşřƖȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŗşŞŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȬȱǰȱȬȱǰȱȬȱǰȱ Ȭȱǰȱ Ȭ ȱǰȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ ȬȱȱǻȱŗşşŞǼǯȱ There is active investigation and research of climate change impact on corals and ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȂȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ£ȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ
ǻȬȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱŘŖŗŗǼȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŘǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ- ȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱ£¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱ ŗşŝřǰȱ ȱȱȱŗşŝŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱ¢ǼDzȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱȱŗşŝŝǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşŝŖȂȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ǻřȱŚȱ¢Ǽȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖśǯȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA 257
ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱśŖƖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱşŖƖȱ¢ȱǻ ÇȬȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱ- ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ altering the habitat, increasing turbidity, and increasing nutrient concentrations from ȱěȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱŘŖŖśȱȱǰȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ¢Dzȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱȱ- ¢ȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱŘǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱęȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ǰȱȱȱDzȱDzȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱęȱ- ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŖǯřȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱ ȱȬȮȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯĴȱŘŖŖřǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻ Ȭ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǰȱęȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱǻ£ȱŘŖŖŜǼDzȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŗst ¢ǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŜǰȱ£ȱȱȬ¤£ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ
11.7 Summary ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¡- ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱ deposition. 258 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱěȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱ
ȱȱĚ¡ȱȱȱ ǰȱ 4 and N2ǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ£ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱęȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ¢Ȭȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱȱȱěȱȱ- ȱȱĴȱȱęǯ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- £ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬǰȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱěȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ęȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱ
ȱǰȱ ȱȱ 4ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ2 and N2ȱȱ dry conditions. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȱ ȱȱ
ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ2ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ
ȱ2ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ - ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĚȱȱ ¢ȱǯ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA 259
ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ- tation rates and their adjacency to upland areas. ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ regions of the SE. ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱęǰȱȱȱȱǯȱěȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱěǰȱ¡ǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ¡ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ damage. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ the reef, especially so if the reef has limited ability to build vertical elevation. In addi- ȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ can degrade these environments.
11.8 References
ȱȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ- ȱȱȱǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱ[ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱãǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱŘȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ¢ȱ- ȱ ȱŚŞȱǻřǼDZȱřŗŝȬřřŝǯ ¡ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱŗŝȱǻŗǼDZȱřřȬŚřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- lism. ȱ¢ȱŗşȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŖŘȬŘŗřǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ¢¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ Ě¡ȱȱȱDZȱȱŘȬ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱȱŘŞȱǻŘǼDZȱŚŘřȬŚřŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ estuarine and coastal ecosystem services. ȱȱŞŗȱǻŘǼDZȱŗŜşȬŗşřǯȱ Ĵǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşśǯȱȬȱ ǯȱ ȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰ eds. M.G. ȱȱǯ ǯȱǰȱȱŜǯȱDZȱ ȱȱȱęȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱřŘŝȱǻśşŜŚǼDZȱŚśŚȬŚśŞǯȱ 260 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱ- ment supply and global sea-level rise. ȱ ȱŘȱǻŝǼDZȱŚŞŞȬŚşŗǯ ¡ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ǯȱǰȱDZȱ¢ȱȱǯ
ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşŘǯȱȱȱȱȱǻ2ȱȱ 4Ǽȱ in southern peatlands. ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘŚȱǻŗŗǼDZȱŗŖŞşȬŗŖşşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱŘŜȱǻŚǼDZȱŞŞşȬşŗŜǯ ĴǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ferred from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes. ȱȱȱřśȱǻŘǼDZȱŜřřȬŜŚśǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱŚŘśȱǻŜşśŜǼDZȱřŜśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱřŘşȱǻśşŞşǼDZȱřŘŘȬřŘśǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ resilience to bleaching. ȱȱŚȱǻŝǼDZȱŜřŘŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȬDZȱ- ȱŘȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǯ ǯȱȱȱǯǯȱǰȱřşŝȬŚŚŞǯȱǰȱȱ DZȱ- ȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ěǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŗřȱǻŝǼDZȱ ŗśŘŞȬŗśřŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȬ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ řŗȱǻŘǼDZȱŜŘŗȬŜřŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ¡ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¡DZȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ed States. ȱ¢ȱŗŜDZȱŗŖŘŚȬŗŖřśǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Carolina coastal plain forest across a hydrology gradient. ȱȱȱ¢ȱŚȱǻŗȬŘǼDZȱŜŝȬŝŜǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱȱDZȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱDZȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱŞŗȱǻŗȬŘǼDZȱşřȬŗřŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱȂ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- pocene. ȱřřśȱǻŜŖŜŞǼDZȱśşřȬśşŜǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱśŘȱǻřǼDZȱŗŘŘŖȬŗŘřŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ- ȱȱěȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱŝȱǻŘǼDZȱŝřȬŝŞǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱ DZȱClimate ChangeȱŘȱǻŗǼDZȱŚśȬŜśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŚŜȱǻśǼDZȱŗŖřŜȬŗŖŚŞǯ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA 261
ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱ 4ǰȱ2, and N2ȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǰȱǰȱǭȱȱ ȱŘŘřȱǻŗǼDZȱŘśřȬŘŜśǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşŞşǯȱȱȱȬȱDZȱ ȱȱȱ- sippi Delta. ȱȱŗŝȱǻřǼDZȱŘŚŗȬŘśŝǯ Ȃǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ Reef. ȱřŘřȱǻśşŗŖǼDZȱŗŗŜȬŗŗşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ££ǰȱǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- siana nutria harvests. ȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŘȱǻŗǼDZȱŗřřȬŗŚŘǯ ǰȱǯǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĵǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŗřȱǻŗŗǼDZȱŘřŚşȬŘřŜŖǯ £ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯȱȬ¤£ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ Ěȱȱȱěȱȱěȱȱ DZȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱŗŘŜȬŗŜŖǯȱ ȱǰȱDZȱȱǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ in response to accelerated sea-level rise. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱşŞȱǻŘśǼDZȱŗŚŘŗŞȬŗŚŘŘřǯ Doyle, T. 2009. ȱĚȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ- linaǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ ȱ¢ǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȬȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ- agementȱŘśşȱǻŚǼDZȱŝŝŖȬŝŝŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ ¡DZȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱŘŞşȱǻśŚŞŝǼDZȱŘŖŜŞȬŘŖŝŚǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ClimateȱŗşȱǻŗŘǼDZȱŘşřśȬŘşśŘǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱřŖȱ¢ǯȱ ŚřŜȱǻŝŖśŗǼDZȱŜŞŜȬŜŞŞǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŗŝȱǻŗǼDZȱŝŗȬŞŚǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱȂǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱȱŗȱǻřǼDZȱŗŜśȬŗŜşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱ ǯȱ£Ȭ ££ǰȱǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ£ȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱDZȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ urban region. ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗśȱǻŚǼDZȱŗŚǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱęDZȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȬ2ȱ ǯȱ¢ȱŘŘȱǻŚǼDZȱřŜȬŚŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱĵ. ȱ¢ȱśŜȱǻŗŗǼDZȱŘŗşŜȬŘŘŖşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱęǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŗŝȱǻŚǼDZȱśŞŗȬŜŗřǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŚřȱǻŗǼDZȱśȬŗŚǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱ¢Ȭȱȱ of migratory faunal depletion caused by dams. ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱřśȱ ǻ ¢ǼDZȱŘśśȬŘŜŜǯ 262 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ÇȬǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŜDZȱ ȱǰȱǰȱ¢£ȱ¢ǰȱ - ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱDZȱȱ¢ǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱ ȱȱȱȱ the paradigm. Climatic ChangeȱŗŖŜȱǻŗǼDZȱŝȬŘşǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ecosystems. ȱ ȱȱȱȱŗȱǻ ¢ǼDZȱŗŗŝȬŗŚŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱĵǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱǯȱClimatic ChangeȱŗŖŝȱǻŗǼDZȱřśȬśŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ nitrogen losses from an oligohaline estuarine sediment. ȱȱȱřřȱǻśǼDZȱŗŖśŚȬŗŖŜŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱDZȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŞǼDZȱŞŚşȬŞŜŚǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱŘŖŖśǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱŗŗřǰȱŖŚŖŘşDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŝ ŖŖŚŚŗşǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱęȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱŘŘȱǻŚǼDZȱŚŞȬśşǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱŗşşŜȮŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱŗŗřǰȱŗŖŖřŗDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŝ ŖŖŚŜŘşǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱěȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ Coastal Plain streams in Georgia. ȱȱȱ¢ȱřŗȱǻŚǼDZȱŗŘŜŜȬŗŘŝŘǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǻDZǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘřȱǻřǼDZȱŚşŚȬśŖŜǯ ěǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ- istics common to conservation practices. ȱȱȱȱŚŞȱǻŚǼDZȱŗřŝŝȬŗřŞŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ on coastal dune ecosystems in open ocean islands. ȱȱ¢ȱŗŜDZŗŞŜŖȬŗŞŜşǯȱ DZŗŖǯŗŗŗŗȦǯŗřŜśȬŘŚŞŜǯŘŖŗŖǯŖŘŗŜŞǯ¡ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ- geon ȱ¡¢ȱ¡¢DZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ segments. ȱ ȱşȱǻśǼDZȱŗŗŗŗȬŗŗŘŚǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ change for invasive species. ȱ¢ȱŘŘȱǻřǼDZȱśřŚȬśŚřǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱŗşřŝȱȱŗşşŜȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŘȱǻřǼDZȱŘŗśǯ Ȃǰȱ ǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘśǰȱ ŘŖŖŗDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖş ŖŖřŝŗŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ǵȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱŗŗřǰȱŖşŖŖŘDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŝ ŖŖŚŘŚŝǯ Ȭ ǰȱǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ęǰȱǯȱ £ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ Ȭǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ĵǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęǯȱȱřŗŞȱǻśŞśŝǼDZȱŗŝřŝȬŗŝŚŘǯ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA 263
ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱDZȱęȱȱȱȱȱ coral and staghorn coral. ȱȱŝŗȱǻŞşǼDZȱŘŜŞśŘȬŘŜŞŜŗǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯ ǯȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ thermal tolerance shaped by local adaptation of photosymbionts. ȱȱȱŘȱǻŘǼDZȱ ŗŗŜȬŗŘŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ Ȭ ǰȱ ǯǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ãǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱęǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ and the resilience of coral reefs. ȱřŖŗȱǻśŜřśǼDZȱşŘşȬşřřǯ ȱǻ ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝDZȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱȱ ǯǯȱǰȱŝŚşȬŞŚŚǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱ- ȱ¢ȱǯ ȱǻ ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŗDZȱȱęȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Climate Changeǰȱǯȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ Ȭȱǯȱȱ ȱŗȱǻŗŗǼDZȱŝŜřȬŝŜŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşŝŝǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ reef corals. ȱ¢ȱŚřȱǻřǼDZȱŘŖŗȬŘŖŞǯ ¤£ǰȱǯ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴȱřśǰȱŘřŚŖŗDzȱ DZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŞ ŖřśŜŞřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ǰȱDZȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ChangeȱŘȱǻŝǼDZȱśřŖȬśřŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱŞȱǻşǼDZȱŚŜŗȬŚŜŜǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ America. ȱȱŞȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŗřȬŘŘŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŞȱ ǻŚǼDZȱşŞŝȬşşřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱĚ productivity and the response of coastal marshes to global change. ȱȱ¢ȱŗśȱ ǻŞǼDZȱŗşŞŘȬŗşŞşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱȂǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level. ¢ȱȱĴ řŝǰȱŘřŚŖŗDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŗŖ ŖŚśŚŞşǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Coast and their climate controls. ȱȱȱȱŘŚȱǻŘǼDZȱŚŝşȬŚŞŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ȮȱŘǯ 264 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ Ĵǰȱ ǯǯȱ- ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȦȬȱ¢ȱ gradients. ȱŘşȱǻŘǼDZȱśŖśȬśŗşǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱŗśȱǻŚǼDZȱŜŘşȬŜřŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¡ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱ- sity enhances surface accretion, surface elevation change, and tree survival in coastal areas susceptible to sea-level rise. ȱŗŜŚȱǻŘǼDZȱśŚśȬśśřǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱřǯřǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱřśȬŞŖǯȱǰȱDZȱǯǯȱȱȱȱǯ
¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ2 stimu- lates marsh elevation gain, counterbalancing sea-level rise. ȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŜȱǻŗśǼDZȱŜŗŞŘȬŜŗŞŜǯ
¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ2 levels limited by nitrogen-induced plant species shift. ȱŚŜŜȱǻŝřŖŘǼDZȱşŜȬşşǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱŗşŞŞǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗşȱǻŗǼDZȱřŝŗȬřşřǯ £ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢DZȱȱȱȱȮ ¢ǵȱ ȱ ȱȱȱŘŘȱǻŚǼDZȱŝśŖȬŝśşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱŘśşȱǻŚǼDZȱŜŞśȬŜşŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ ȱ¢¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱŘşȱǻřǼDZȱŞŘŜȬŞřŜǯ ǰȱtǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ Ěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ 31 ǻŜǼDZȱŗŖŘřȬŗŖřŘǯ £ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęDZȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęǯȱȱȱŘşȱǻřǼDZȱŝŚşȬŝśŞǯ Ĵ ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯȱȬĴ ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱěȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱŚŞȱǻŝǼDZȱŗŘřŘȬŗŘśřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȬǯȱȱȱȱŘȱǻŞǼDZȱŜŘřȬŜŘŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ biotic controls on change in soil elevation. ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗŜȱǻśǼDZȱśŚśȬśśŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱDZȱȱȬȱǵȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗřȱǻŗǼDZȱ ŜśȬŝřǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşŞŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱŘşȱǻǼDZȱşȬŗŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ based on GCM and regional model simulations. Climatic ChangeȱŜŖȱǻŗǼDZȱŝȬřśǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ Ĵǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱ- dictions. In ȱȱŘŖŖŝDZȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱŗȱȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA 265
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ, ed. S. Solomin, D. ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱǰȱ ȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱěȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱǯǯȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱǰȱ ǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱŘŖŘȱǻŘǼDZȱŘśŝȬŘŝŚǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱŘśȱǻřǼDZȱŚŗŞǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȦȱȱDZȱȱ¢ȱ interpretation. ȱȱ ¢¢ȱŘŗŞȱǻřȬŚǼDZȱŗŘŞȬŗŚŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱǯǯȱǯȱClimatic ChangeȱśşȱǻřǼDZȱřŞşȬŚŖşǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱŞřȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŘŞŜşȬŘŞŝŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱęȱȱ DZȱȱȱȱȬĚȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǯǯȱǯȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱ ȱȱDZȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚǯȱClimatic ChangeȱŗŖŚȱǻřȬŚǼDZȱśŝśȬśşŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ- tion, sea-level rise, and biomass production on near-surface marsh stratigraphy and carbon accumulation. ǰȱȱȱȱȱŞŘȱǻřǼDZȱřŝŝȬřŞşǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşşŞǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱDZȱȱȱ the IPCC regional assessment of vulnerability for North America. ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱŗŗŘȱǻŗǼDZȱŗŖȬŗśǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ- ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱȬ ǰȱǯ ǯȱĵǯȱŗşşŝǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ ¢ȱ ȱŗŗȱǻŞǼDZȱşŚşȬşŝŖǯ ǰȱǯȱŗşŝřǯȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯȱ ȱȱǯȱ- ǰȱŝȬŗŗśǯȱ ȱǰȱDZȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱęDZȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ- trusion and altered hydrology. ȱȱȱřŚȱǻŗǼǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ DZȱȱȱ- pacts. In ȱ ȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱŗśřȬŘŜŜǯȱ ǰȱȱDZȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯ ǯȱ £ǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱ ȱĚȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱşȱǻŗǼDZȱŜşȬŞŝǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱ ǯǯȱĴǰȱ ǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŝDZȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ 266 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱǯǯȱ ǰȱřŗśȬřśŜǯȱǰȱȱ DZȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱşŖȮ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱŞřȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱǰȱDZȱȱǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱĚȱȬ ȱ- ȱȱȱřŖȱ¢ǯȱǰȱDZȱǯǯȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦǯ ǯȦ Ȧ ¢ ȦŗŖȦ ǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ- ǯǯȦȦ¡ǯǯȱDZȱŘŞȱȱŘŖŗŗǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱŚŖşȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŗŝřşȬŗŝŚśǯ ęǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęǯȱȱřřřȱǻŜŖŚŗǼDZȱŚŗŞȬŚŘŘǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱǯȱ ȱȱ 21 ǻŘǼDZȱŚŖřȬŚŗŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ- DZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱŘřȱǻŗǼDZȱŗŜŚȬŗŝřǯ ĴǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǼȱȱȱȱDZȱȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱŗŚȱǻŚǼDZȱŞŗřȬŞŘŜǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ management implications of climate change for the Everglades. ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŘşȱǻŚǼDZȱŗśŗŖȬŗśŘŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ Ȭȱȱ-
ȱȱȱ2ȱȱDZȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ods, and models. ȱ¢ȱŗŜŘȱǻŘǼDZȱřŗŗȬřŘŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȬ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ
controls on N2ȱȱ 4 ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Prairie Pothole region. ȱŗśśȱǻřȬŚǼDZȱřŖŞȬřŗşǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱǯȱȱ ŚŞȱǻŗǼDZȱŗŖşȬŗŘŘǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ mangrove ȱDZȱ ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱřŚȱǻŚǼDZȱ ŞŘŚȬŞřŖǯ Ĵǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşŞŞǯȱěȱȱęȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱ in longleaf pine forests. ȱŝŜȱǻřǼDZȱřśřȬřŜřǯ ěǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ £ȱȱȱȱ¢- ics by dams and global biodiversity implications. ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŚȱǻŗŚǼDZȱśŝřŘȬśŝřŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ and its relevance to interannual variability of trace atmospheric greenhouse gases. ȱȱ ¢ȱȱŗŗŗǰȱŖŜřŖŗDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖś ŖŖŜŚśśǯ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA 267
¢£ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ȱȱŘŘȱǻŗŚǼDZȱŘŜŞşȬŘŜşŞǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- cies. ȱ¢ȱŘŘȱǻřǼDZȱśŘŗȬśřřǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱřŗśȱ ǻśŞŗŖǼDZȱřŜŞȬřŝŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱřŗŜȱǻśŞŘśǼDZȱŝŖşǯ
ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ2ȱ¡ȱȱȱ-
ȱ¢ȱ DZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ2ȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŗŗȱǻřǼDZȱřŜşȬřŝŝǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ¡DZȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱDZȱ Springer. ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱĵȱȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱŗŞşȬŘŖŘǯȱ¢ǰȱDZȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱěǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱ ȬȱȱǰȱȱǭȱDZȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ¢ȱȱ Copenhagen. ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱDZȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǵȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ 13 ǻŗŗǼDZȱŚřŞȬŚŚřǯ Ȭǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱĴǰȱǯȱ ěǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ Ĵǰȱ ǯǯȱ ȬǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱŗȱǻǼDZȱřŖŞȬřŗŘǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱěȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱDZȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ȱȱŘŜȱǻŚǼDZȱśŘřȬśřŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱŗŗŘȱǻŘǼDZȱřśŜȬřŜŘǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱŗŞȱǻŚǼDZȱŜŘŖȬŜŘŞǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ƹ 4 ȱȱ¢ǰȱęǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŘŘȱǻŗǼDZȱŘŗȬřŖǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşŝǯȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ America. ¢ȱȱŗŗȱǻŞǼDZȱŗŖŚřȬŗŖŜŝǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ bogs of the southern Appalachian Mountains. ȱȱ ȱřŖȱǻŚǼDZȱŚŗŝȬŚŘŚǯ ĴǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŗŘŝȱǻřǼDZȱřŖŗȬřŖşǯ Ĵǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱǰȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱęȱǯȱȱŘŜȱǻŗŗǼDZȱŜȬŗśǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱĵǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱŞDZȱŜȬŗřǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴ řŚǰȱŘřŞŗŖDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŝ ŖřŗŜşŚǯ 268 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŗşŞŗǯȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ¡DZȱȱȱ Present Distribution. ȱȱȱȱŘŚȱǻǼDZȱŗŗśȬŗřŗǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŗşŞśǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŘŞȱ ǻǼDZȱŗŘşȬŗŚŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŗşŞŜǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ£ȱ, ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱŘşȱǻǼDZȱŘŝȬřŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱȱȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȬȱȬěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱřŗŖȱǻśŝśśǼDZȱŗŞŖřȬŗŞŖŜǯ Ĵ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱ ŘŖŖŘǯȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ North Carolina coastal plain cropland. ȱȱȱȱȱŘŝȱǻŗřǼDZȱŗřŝŝȬŗřŞŝǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ £ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱDZȱŗǯȱȱȱ ¡ǯȱClimate Change ŜşȱǻŗǼDZȱŝȬŘśǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱěȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢DZȱ ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱȱȱřŖȱǻŘǼDZȱ ŘŗŚȬŘŘśǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ£ȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱŘŜȱǻřǼDZȱŘŚŘȬŘŜŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢Ĵǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱǻȱȱǼȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŘȱǻŜǼDZȱŗŖşŚȬŗŗŖŚǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŖśǯȱ ȱ Ȃȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱǰȱǰȱ- ȱ ¢ȱȱŞŜȱǻŚŞǼDZȱŚşŝȬśŖŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱȱĚȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱŘŞȱǻŗǼDZȱŗŝȬŘŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ- ȱŗşDZȱŗŖŘśȬŗŖŚŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȮȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ ȱȬ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ŗśȱǻřǼDZȱŗŖřśȬŗŖŚŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ- ęȱǯȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŝȱǻśǼDZȱŝŚŞśȬŝśŗşǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ- £Ȭ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ - ȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱȱȱřřȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŗŘŝşȬŗŘŞşǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŖśǯȱ ¢- ȱȱĴȱřřǰȱŗŘŝŖŚDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŜ ŖŘŜŞşŚǯ ȱǻȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱ ȬDZȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ǯȱǰȱ ¢DZȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱěȱȱ¡¢ȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ȃȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŚŚȱǻřǼDZȱŝŚŘȬŝśřǯȱ ȱȱǰȱǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¡ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ĜǯȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ The Effects of Climate Change on Natural Ecosystems of the Southeast USA 269
¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǵȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱŚŝȱǻŚǼDZȱŝŘŖȬŝřŖǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŜȱǻśŗǼDZȱŘŗśŘŝȬŘŗśřŘǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱDZȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ence and CRR Qld Pty Ltd. ǰȱ ǯǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱęȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱřȱǻŘǼDZȱ ŘŜŘȬŘŝŚǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǯǰȱǯȱ Ȭ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱȬ ¢ǰȱǯǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱěȬǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱDZȱȱ
ȱȱȱǀřśŖȱȱ2. ȱȱȱśŞȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŗŚŘŞȬŗŚřŜǯ ãã¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱ ȱ ȱDZȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱŘŞşȱǻśŚŝŝǼDZȱŘŞŚȬŘŞŞǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ¢ȱȱDZȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱǰȱDZȱȦȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȂȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŗşŞŚǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱǯȱȱśśǻřǼDZȱŗŜřȬŗŝşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱ£ǰȱǰȱȱȱ£- ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ȱŚşŚȱǻŗȬřǼDZȱśȬŗŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱ ȱŗŖȱǻŞǼDZȱ 1229-1242. ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱǼȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱŗŝȱǻřǼDZȱśśŘȬśŜśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱĴǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ- ties. ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱřřŜȱǻŗǼDZȱŗŞȬřŘǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱřŖşȱǻśŝŚŘǼDZȱŗŞŚŚȬŗŞŚŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱĴǯȱ ȱȱȱřřȱǻŚǼDZȱşŞśȬŗŖŖřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ - ter stoichiometry of terminal metabolic products, sulfate, and dissolved organic carbon and ȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ¢ȱŝŝȱǻřǼDZȱřŝśȬŚŖŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱĴȱ £ȱ ȱȬ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ- ¢ȱŗŖŘȱǻŗǼDZȱŗřśȬŗśŗǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ DZȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ǰȱDZȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 2005ǯȱ ǰȱDZȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ Research Centre. ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ DZȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱ¡ǯȱ Climatic ChangeȱŗŖŝȱǻŗǼDZȱśşȬŞŖǯ 270 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ£ǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ DZȱŗşşŘȬŘŖŖśǯȱ- ȱřŗȱǻŗǼDZȱŞȬŗŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱŗǰȱŘřȬřŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱǻȱ Dzȱ£Ǽȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱŝŗȱǻřǼDZȱŘřşȬŘŚŚǯ Chapter 12
Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA
LEAD AUTHOR Kenneth L. Mitchell ([email protected]; US Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia)
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Marilyn Brown (Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia) Ryan Brown (US Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Diana Burk (Southface Institute, Atlanta, Georgia) Dennis Creech (Southface, Atlanta, Georgia) Jeffrey S. Gaffney (University of Arkansas at Little Rock, Arkansas) Garry P. Garrett (Southern States Energy Board, Norcross, Georgia) Daniel Garver (US Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Stephen A. Smith (Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, Knoxville, Tennessee) Ge Sun (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina)
271 272 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱ¢ȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȬȱȱěǰȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱ American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.
Key Findings
f ȱŘŜƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘśƖȱȱȱȱ2 emissions,
ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȬȱ2 than any other region of the National Climate Assessment. The largest source of emissions is generation ȱ¢ȱǻŚŗƖǼȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻřśƖǼǯȱ
f ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱ- tration in soils and plant biomass. The average annual carbon storage in natural ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ Ŗǯřȱ ǰȱ ŜŖƖȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ development pressures is a critical issue for climate change mitigation in the SE. f ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȬĜ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬęȱȱȱǯ f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭ¡ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ in part due to a provision of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ f ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ Ĝ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭěȱ ȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ there are several SE states that lead in energy conservation for the region and ȱǯȱȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 11 states for total numbers of Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design projects. f Many corporations and in the SE are developing and instituting sustainability plans that include provisions to reduce their overall direct and indirect impacts ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ - ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ
12.1 Definitions Climate change mitigation refers to activities that avoid or decrease the release of ȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱǰȱǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱĚ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱěȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ purposes of this chapter, the Southeast is comprised of Louisiana, Alabama, Missis- Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA 273
ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ presented are focused on the 11 continental states.
12.2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks in the Southeast ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŞŗȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŜƖȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱŘśƖȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ¡-
ȱǻ2ǼȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŗŘǯŗǼǯ
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗǰŚŚŚȱȱȱȱ
ǻǼȱȱ2ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŚŗƖȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻřśƖǼȱȱȱȱ ǻŗŞƖǼȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ A more ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ- ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Among the southeastern states, all but Louisiana produce the greatest share of their
ȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ- ȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŘřŚȱȱ2 ȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŗŘǯŘǼǯȱ
Regional Trajectory for GHG Emissions ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȯǰȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ their state, including an inventory of emissions and projections of emissions into the ǰȱ¢¢ǰȱȱȱŘŖŘŖȱȱŘŖřŖȱǯȱȂȱŗşşŝȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŖȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ
¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱ2 emission ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȬęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱǻ 4Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ
ęǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ2e, a measure used ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ
ȱȱ2ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ- ȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ 274 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Figure 12.1 Total CO2 emissions from combustion by sector by National Climate Assessment region (2009).
ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱŗŘǯŗȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ emissions estimates. The source document for each state should be consulted to evalu- ȱȱěǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ
Carbon Sinks ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ǽȱ ȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǼǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘȱȱ2Ȧ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗȱȱ2Ȧ¢ȱ
ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗȱȱ2ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱŘȱȱ2
ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱřȱȱ2 after year three, and so on, until it reaches some internal satu-
ȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱ Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA 275
Figure 12.2 Total CO2 emissions from combustion by sector in Southeast USA.
ȱŘŖŖŝȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ- ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ¡ǰȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŘǯŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŘǯřǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘśƖȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ high level of crop production. ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱ¡¢ȱŗŖƖȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŚŝƖȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŘǯŘȱȱŗŘǯřǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ 276 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Table 12.1 Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Reference Case Projections (1990-2030).
MMtCO2e 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ ȱ ȱȱŗşşŖǼ*
101.3 ŗŖŝǯśȱ 114.2 ŜśǯŞȱ ŞŜǯŞȱǻřŘƖǼ ŞśǯŚȱǻřŖƖǼ şřǯśȱǻŚŘƖǼ Ȧ ǻśŚƖǼ ǻŜřƖǼ ǻŝŚƖǼ
řŗśǯŖȱ řřŜǯŜȱ řŜŘǯŜȱ 424.9 ŚŜřǯřȱ ŘŚŞǯŞȱ Ȧ Ȧ ǻŘŝƖǼȱ ǻřśƖǼ ǻŚŜƖǼ ǻŝŗƖǼ ǻŞŜƖǼ
ŗŜśǯşȱ ŗŞřǯŗȱ ŗşŗǯŜȱ ŘŖśǯŗȱ Řŗŝǯŝȱ 232.3 ŘŚŝǯŝȱ ¢ ŗřŜǯŝȱ ǻŘŗƖǼ ǻřŚƖǼ ǻŚŖƖǼ ǻśŖƖǼ ǻśşƖǼ ǻŝŖƖǼ ǻŞŗƖǼ
North ŗřŜȱ ŗŞŖȱǻřřƖǼ ŗşŘȱǻŚŘƖǼ ŘŗŚȱǻśŞƖǼ Ȧ ŘśŜȱǻŞŞƖǼ Ȧ Ȧ Carolina
South 102.2 ŗŘśǯŚȱ ŜŝǯŘȱ ŞŝǯŞȱǻřŗƖǼ şřǯśȱǻřşƖǼ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Carolina ǻśŘƖǼ ǻŞŝƖǼ
ŘŘşǯŞŚȱ Ȧ ŗŜŘǯŜřȱ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ ǻŚŗƖǼ
ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǻ ȱ ȱȱŗşşŖǼ
ŜŜǯŖȱ ŜŚǯŜȱ ŝŘǯŜȱ ŞŖǯŚȱ ŞŜǯŜȱ 93.4 Řŝǯřȱ Ȧ ǻŗŚŗƖǼ ǻŗřŜƖǼ ǻŗŜŜƖǼ ǻŗşŚƖǼ ǻŘŗŝƖǼ ǻŘŚŘƖǼ
ŘŞŞǯřȱ 309.4 řřśǯřȱ řşŝǯŞȱ ŚřŜǯŘȱ 230.9 Ȧ Ȧ ǻŘśƖǼȱ ǻřŚƖǼ ǻŚśƖǼ ǻŝŘƖǼ ǻŞşƖǼ
ŗśŞǯŘȱ ŗŝśǯśȱ ŗŞŚǯŖȱ ŗşŝǯŜȱ 210.1 ŘŘŚǯŞȱ 240.2 ¢ ŗŘŜǯŞȱ ǻŘśƖǼȱ ǻřŞƖǼ ǻŚśƖǼ ǻśŜƖǼ ǻŜŜƖǼ ǻŝŝƖǼ ǻŞşƖǼ
North 112 ŗśŜȱǻřşƖǼ ŗŜşȱǻśŖƖǼ ŗşŗȱǻŝŖƖǼ Ȧ ŘřŘȱǻŗŖŜƖǼ Ȧ Ȧ Carolina
South ŝŗǯŖȱ 94.1 34.0 śŜǯŞǻŜŝƖǼ ŜŘǯřȱǻŞřƖǼ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Carolina ǻŗŖşƖǼ ǻŗŝŝƖǼ
Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ Ȧ
* ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǯȱŘȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȦȱȮȱȱ DZȱ ȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ Strait et al. 2010 Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA 277
Table 12.2 Total Terrestrial Carbon (C) Storage in the Southeast.
State Soil Organic C Biomass C Total Terrestrial C
Forest Crop* Pasture*
Tg C Tg C Tg C Tg C Tg C
Alabama śřś ŚŞş 1.3 1.3 ŗǰŖŘŝ
ŞŗŚ ŚŞŘ 22 2.9 1,321
řǰśŖŚ ŘśŘ 0.3 Ŗǯŝ řǰŝśŝ
Georgia 1,232 śŗŚ řǯŝ ŗǯŜ ŗǰŝśŗ
Louisiana 1,100 řŝŜ Şǯŝ Ŗǯŝ ŗǰŚŞś
Mississippi Śśŝ ŚśŖ ŝ 1.3 şŗś
North Carolina ŗǰŝŜŗ śŗŝ ŝǯŚ ŗǯŞ ŘǰŘŞŝ
South Carolina ŞŞŞ ŘŜŘ 1.9 Ŗǯŝ ŗǰŗśř
Tenessee ŚŖŞ řŞş śǯŘ Śǯŝ ŞŖŝ
śŗŜ Śśś Ŝǯř 3.2 şŞŗ
Total 11,215 4,186 63.8 18.9 15,483.7
* ȱȱȱ
ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖƖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŗşŞŖǰȱȱŗşŝŝǰȱȱŗşşśǼǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ the NCA SE could be located. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻǼǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱŗŘǯřǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱǻǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱǰȱȱƽȱȬDzȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ- tions in precipitation and drought in the region. The mean regional NEP is about 0.3 ȱȱȱǻȱȱǼȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱŜŖƖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǻȱŗŘǯřǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ 278 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Table 12.3 Annual Terrestrial Biomass C Sinks in the Southeast.
State Biomass C (Tg C/year) Total Terrestrial C as Biomass (Tg C/year)
Forest Crop Pasture
Tg C Tg C Tg C Tg C
Alabama Şǯŝ 1.3 1.3 11.3
Ŝǯś 22 2.9 31.4
śǯŚ 0.3 Ŗǯŝ ŜǯŚ
Georgia 11 řǯŝ ŗǯŜ ŗŜǯř
Louisiana śǯş Şǯŝ Ŗǯŝ ŗśǯř
Mississippi ŝǯŞ ŝ 1.3 ŗŜǯŗ
North Carolina Şǯś ŝǯŚ ŗǯŞ ŗŝǯŝ
South Carolina řǯŝ 1.9 Ŗǯŝ Ŝǯř
Tenessee 4.3 śǯŘ Śǯŝ 14.2
Ŝǯř Ŝǯř 3.2 ŗśǯŞ
Total 68.1 63.8 18.9 150.8
12.3 GHG Emission Reduction Activities ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ¢ȱĜȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ Ĝȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱ clean energy policy and technology solutions that deliver important environmental and ȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ
Transportation ȱȱȱȱŚȱǻ¢Ǽǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
řśƖȱȱȬȱ2 emissions. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA 279
Figure 12.3 Mean annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the Southeastern USA for the period 2001 to 2006. Units are gCm-2 yr-1. Positive values indicate carbon release, and negative values indicate carbon uptake (croplands, urban areas, water bodies, and non-vegetated areas excluded).
ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱřŖȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼȱȱȱȱȱȱřŖȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȂȱȱ ȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱ ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱĜȱ ǰȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱęĴȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱşȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱŗŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ2ȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ 280 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Case Study: Arkansas Clean Cities Coalition
ȱȱȱȱ¢Ȃȱȱȱ DZȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȇȱǰȱ- DZȱȱŘśǰȱŗşşśȱȱ ronmental, and energy security by supporting ȱȱDZ local actions to reduce petroleum consumption • ȱȱǻŘŖȱȱǼDZȱśȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ • ȱȱ DZȱŜ participate in the program. • ȱȱǻŞśǼDZȱŘŖ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ • ȱDZȱś Cities Coalition is to advance the energy, eco- • ȱDZȱŚş ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ through government-industry partnerships that ĴDZȦȦ ŗǯǯ¢ǯȦȦȱĴDZȦȦ- ¢ǯȦȬȬǯ¡ contribute to the reduction of petroleum con- sumption in the transportation sector. ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯ¢ǯȦȦȦ ȱDZ DZȱŘǰşŗŗǰŖŚś DZȱśřǰŗŝşȱȱ
ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȃȱȄȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȃȬȄȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǯǯǰȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱşśȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱŗǰśŖŖȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱŞśȱȱ ǻȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ
Energy Efficiency in Buildings and Manufacturing ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬěȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ various end-use sectors, including residential, commercial, and industrial. Innovative, ȱęȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ
ȱǰȱ¢ȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ depends on the temporal boundary of cost analysis and the useful life of the particular Ĝ¢ȱȱǻ ¢ȱǭȱ¢ȱŘŖŖşǼǯ ȱȱĚ ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Ȃȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱĜȱȱȱȱ¢ȱțȱȱȱ ȬȬȱ Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA 281
ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜȱ¢ȱǻȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȬĜ¢ȱǻȱŗŘǯŚǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ Ĝ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȬęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŘȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘȱǯ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǻȱŗřśŗŚǼȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ- ȱǻȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ technologies and environmentally-responsible products. The General Services Admin- ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŚŖȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗŝȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Although some states in the SE have already adopted fairly progressive energy ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ
Figure 12.4 2011 ACEEE energy efficiency scorecard rankings. 282 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱ states receiving ARRA funds to adopt updated energy codes. According to the ACEEE ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěǯȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǞŘŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗřȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȃ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱȄȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ
Case Study: Beneficial Electrification of Motors and Vehicles
ȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱĴ¢ȱDzȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱDzȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱ ȱDzȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ĵ¢Ȭ¢ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱęǯȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ may bring an unusually high burden to areas promising technology to introduce the use of ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ electricity as a transportation fuel is through the ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ demand. In particular, transformers serving The Natural Resource Defense Council ȱȱ¢ȱȱĜȱȱȱ ǻǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ the simultaneous charging of multiple vehicles. ǻ Ǽȱ¢ȱ¢£ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖśŖǯȱ these and other issues. ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȃȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱǯȱȬ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ £DZȱ- ȱȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŖŞǯȱĴDZȦȦ ȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯǯȦȦȦ production of motor fuels to their consumption ȏ ȦŘŖŖŞȬȦŗŖŗŜŚŘŘȏ ǯȱ ȱȱȱǯȄȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȃȱȱȱ ȱěȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱŗDZȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǯȄȱ ¢ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ŘŖŖŝǯȱĴDZȦȦ¢ǯǯȦȦ- ȱ ȱǯȱ ȱŘŖśŖǰȱȱȱ ȦȦȦȦ Ȭ ȱ ȱŗŜřȱȱŜŗŘȱȱȱȱ ¡Ȭŗǯȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ęȱǯȱȱęȱ- ȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖśŖȱȱȱřǯŚȱȱŗŖǯřȱȱ DZȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ- Achieving Energy Security. November 2010. sions in each region of the country. ĴDZȦȦ¢ǯȦ ȬȦ- ȱęȱȱȱ ȱ- ȦŘŖŗŖȦŗŘȦȬȬȬǯȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA 283
ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬěȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱDzȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯ The study found that policies promoting process improvements, utility plant up- ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱęǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ¢ȬĜȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ £ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘǰŗŖŖȱȱȱǻǼȱȱŘŖŘŖȱǻȱŗŗƖȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱřǰřŝŜȱȱȱŘŖřŖȱǻȱŗŜƖȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱŘŖřŖǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŗŖŖȱȱ
ȱ2ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱŘŘŖǰŖŖŖȱǰȱȱǞŘŚȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱśȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŘŖǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱĴȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱ¡ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ
Case Study: Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
ȱȱȱ ȱǻ Ǽǰȱȱ ȱ Progressive policies that promote environ- ȱȃǰȄȱȱȱĜǰȱǰȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȇȱȱĜ¢ǰȱ analyses of output-based regulations and portfo- decrease energy costs, and decrease greenhouse ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ gas emissions. potential to avoid tens of millions of tonnes of According to the Energy Information Ad- ŘȱǰȱȱŗǯŚȱȱŘǯŚȱȱȱ ȱǻ ǼȱŘŖŗŗȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ of energy, and provide billions of dollars of net 49% of industrial energy consumption occurs in ȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǯȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ- technology to help reduce this level of consump- ȂȱřśƖȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱŚŗŜȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱŘŖȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ no Southeastern state has output-based regula- chemicals, food processing, and pulp and paper ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- public service commission-established energy east, a number of small applications have been Ĝ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ added in the past ten years. The Southeast is also ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯ home to four large-scale natural gas combined ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ and South Carolina. 284 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȬĜ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȂȱŘŖŗŖȱǰȱȱȱȯǰȱǰȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȯȱȱȱȱŗŗȱȱȱśŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱǻȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǻ ȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜȱȱȱǯȱ
Case Study: North Carolina RPS
ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŝȬřşŝǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ- Ĝ¢ȱǯȱ ę¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱŘŖŘŗǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- Ȭ ȱȱȱȱŗŘǯśƖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ¢ȱĜ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ ę¢ȱǯ corporations and municipalities that sell electric ĴDZȦȦ ǯŘǯȦ ȏȏȏȦȏȏ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȧǯ ŗŖƖȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ
Renewable Portfolio Standards ȱ ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ Ĝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ - ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA 285
ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ¢ȱěȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱŗŝȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǻȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȯȱȱȯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȂȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŗŖȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ- ing SE states have not established either a mandatory or voluntary RPS. Additional ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ
Carbon Capture and Storage
ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 before
ȱȱĴȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ2 into the atmo- ǯȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ
ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 emissions from station- ¢ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ Ȃȱȱȱęȱ- ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱŜśƖȱ
ȱȱ2ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ
Case Study: The City of Gainesville, FL
Gainesville joined the International Council for ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱ reduce carbon emissions include monitoring and for Climate Protection Campaign in 2002. Three ȱDzȱȱ¢ȱĜ- years later, the community joined cities across the ¢Dzȱȱ ȱȱĜ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢Ȃȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŝȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȬȬȬȱȬȱěȱ ȱŗşşŖȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ for solar electricity. target in 2013. ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǻ Ǽǰȱȱ- ȱȱŘŖŗřȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱŝƖȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱŗşşŖȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱ ¢Ȭ ȱȱ¡ȱ- ȱ¡¢ȱşŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ ȱ Ǽǯ customers in Gainesville and surrounding areas ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢Ȧ- ȱǰȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱ Ȧ¢Ȧ telecommunications services. 286 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȃ¢ȱ¢ǰȄȱ ȱȱȱ- tion of fuel that must be used to run the CCS process. A recent study found that the ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŗƖǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŚŖƖȱȱŘşƖȱȱȱȃȱ- ȱȄȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬěȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ formations, oil and gas reservoirs, coal areas that cannot be mined, organic-rich shales, ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŘǯśȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱDZȱǻŗǼȱȱǭǰȱǻŘǼȱǰȱȱǻřǼȱ global collaborations. The primary component of the infrastructure element is the Re- ȱȱȱǰȱȱȦȦ¢ȱ- ȱěȱȱ ȱ£ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
Figure 12.5 Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SEACARB) map showing deep
saline formations with CO2 storage potential. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA 287
Case Study: Hickory Ridge Landfill
ȱ ¢ȱȱęȱȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱ ŗȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱ ¡¢ȱŗŖȱȱȱȱ ȱ enough to meet the needs of 224 homes. The ǯȱȱęȱȱȱŗşşřȱȱȱęĴȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱęȱȬȬ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱ solar photovoltaics and methane gas collection. ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱęȱȱ disposal facility and further reducing greenhouse ȱ¢ȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱ gas emissions to the atmosphere. a geomembrane cover being used to close a sec- ĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȬşŖȏŖŖŖǯ ȱȱȱęǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱŝǰŖŖŖȱȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦŖŖȦȦ- panels on 10 acres. The plant generates more than ȦŖǰŘŜŜŞǰŗřŚŘŚśŗŞŘȏŗŚŚśŝŜŝşśȏŗśŜśŜşşŜŞǰŖŖǯȱ
Photo courtesy of the Georgia Environmental Finance Authority.
ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱŗřȬȱ DZȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱǰȱ¡ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 288 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Table 12.4. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ- £ȱȱȁȱȬȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ-
ȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ2 pipelines to storage areas, enhanced oil recovery, and other commercial uses, monitor federal and state regulatory and legisla- tive activities, and support local, regional, national, and international education and ȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
Sustainability Plans ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ cities are developing and instituting plans to reduce their overall direct and indirect ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱĜ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ability plans. A number of SE cities have also developed sustainability plans to help save energy ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱŘŖŜȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȃȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱŝƖȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŘȱȱȱŗşşŖȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱȱȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ Ǽǰȱȱ ȱ ȱŞřȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ties, through its Green Government Initiative, also provides assistance to cities and counties through seminars, best practices, modeling, and analytical tools to increase ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ȱ¢ȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱŗŖśȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȂȱȱȱǻǼǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȃȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬ£ȱȱȂȱȄȱ ǻȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǻȱ ĴȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA 289
Table 12.4 Estimates of CO2 Storage Capacity in the SECARB Region.
CO2 Sources CO2 Storage Resource State (Million Metric Tons) (Million Metric Tons) Years Storage**
Oil and Coal and Total Saline* Total Gas Shale*
AL ŞŖ 344 1,944 12,900 ŗśǰŗŞŞ 190
AR řś ŘśŖ ŗśǰŜŝś 4,304 20,229 śŝŘ
143 109 ŗǰŘŝś ŗŜǰŝŘś ŗŞǰŗŖş ŗŘŝ
GA 90 4,909 4,909 śś
KY 94 14 ŜŞ 400 ŚŞŘ Ȧ
LA 102 ŜǰŝŞŗ ŞǰřŘś ŗřşǰŚşŝ ŗśŚǰŜŖř ŗǰśŘŖ
MS 34 399 śǰŚŖŖ ŚŜǰŚŘŝ śŘǰŘŘŜ ŗǰśŚŜ
NC ŝŝ ŗǰřśŘ ŗǰřśŘ ŗŞ
SC 40 ŗǰşşś ŗǰşşś 49
TN ŜŜ śŖŖ śŖŖ Ş
ŚŜ 10 231 ŗśş 400 9
ȕȵȱ ŗŝǰŝśŚ ŚŞŚǰşşŜ śŖŘǰŝśŖ Ȧ ě
Total 807 25,661 32,918 714,164 772,743
* ȱȱȱ
** ȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ2ȱȱȦȱȱǼ ȕȹ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱěȱȱȱȱ
ȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŖŗǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱŘŗȱȱęȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱ¢ȱśŖƖȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱ¢ȱŘŖŗśǯȱȱşśƖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢Ȃȱ Ȭȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȃȱȱ ȱȄȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ¡¢ȱŘşƖȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱěǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱřşƖȱȱ 290 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ £ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȃȄȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱęȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ broader community, have created an environmental and sustainability studies minor, ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱĜȱǰȱȬȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȬĜ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱ - ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ
Additional activities. In addition to the activities discussed above, a number of addi- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱ¢ȱȱŗřśȱȱęȱȱ ȱȂȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ęȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱŗŞŜȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱŗŚȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱěȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ¢ȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŘǰȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ
12.4 Research Needs and Uncertainties
ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȦȱ blends and biodiesel, the resulting changes and impacts of radiative forcing agents ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ate on a three-year cycle the current and potential future environmental and resource ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ě¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗşşŞǰȱ ě¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ DZ
• ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ • ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA 291
• Ĝȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ • Strategic energy analysis • Carbon capture and storage • ȱę • ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ- tion end-use sectors • ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ Ȭǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ
12.5 References
ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȱ ȱĴǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ¢ȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ¢ǯĴǯȦȦ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǰȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯ¢ǯȦȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱǯȱȱ- ǰȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȬ¢Ȧȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ¢ǯȦȦȦȏǯ¡ȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşŞŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱ řŖȱǻŗŘǼDZȱŞŘśȬŞřŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱ- ę¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŚŖDZȱŘřŗȬŘŚŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¡ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ǯȱȱǰȱDZȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦǯǯȦȦȦȦŘřŞŘŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ¡ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ǯȱȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȬĜ- ȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦęȦȦŘŖŗŗȦȦȦŖŖŞśȬŖŖŖŖŗŜǯ ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯŘǯȦ ȏȏȏȦȏȏȦȏȏǯȱ ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǯ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢ȏȦȦȱ ¢ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯȱ ǰȱDZȱ¢ȱȱ ǯ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦǯǵ ƽŗŗŚ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŖȬŘŖŘśǼǯȱ ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢Ȯȱǯ ¡ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢DZȱȱȱȱ ȬȱȱǯȱȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȬĜȱ ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦęȦȦŘŖŗŗȦȦȦŖŖŞśȬŖŖŖŖŗŝǯ ¢ȱěȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ǰȱȱDZȱ ȱ ¢ȱǯ 292 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱǻ¢ȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱŗşŜŖȬŘŖŖşȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȬȬǯȱ ȱǻ¢ȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ǰȱDZȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȬȱ ȱȱǯǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȏ¢Ȧ ȏȏȦȦȱ ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȂȱȱ¢ȱ¢. Talla- ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯĚǯȦȦ Ȧ¡ǯ ¡ǵƽŚŗşȱ ě¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ȱȱřŘȱǻŗŜǼDZȱŘŞŝřȬŘŞŝŚǯ ě¢ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ ȱ species and aerosols. In ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱȱǯȱǰȱŘŝśȬŘşśǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ- search Service. ȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱDZȱ ŘŖŗŖȱ¢ǯȱȱǰȱDZȱ ȱ ȱǯȱĴDZȦȦǯȦȦ- ȬŗŜŚȬŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȬȱȱǯȱClimatic Change ŞŚȱǻŘǼDZȱŗşŗȬŘŖŘǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱ££ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȬȱ
2 ȱǭȱȱȱȱȱȱęĴȱȱǯǯȱȱǯȱ¢ȱǭȱ ȱȱŘȱǻŘǼDZȱŗşřȬŘŖśǯ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȬȦ ȱǻ ȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱŘŖŖŝDZȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ- ¢ǰȱǯȱȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱǰȱǰȱ ¢ȱŗŝȬŗşǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱĴDZȦȦ¡ǯǯǯȦȦȦŗşŜşǯŗȦşŚŝşŞȦȬ ȬŗŗȬŖśȬŘŗǯ ǵƽŗ ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱ DZȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦǯȦȦȦ ȬȦƖŘŖƖŘŖ¢ƖŘŖ ƖŘŖŗŘȬŗŝȬŖşǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǯȱ ¢ǯȱǯȱĴǯȱřŚDZśǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ě¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱĴǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱ ¢Ȭǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŞȱ ǻśǼDZȱŗŞŚşşȬŗŞśřŖǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ ě¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱ DZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŖȱȱŗȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢- ȱşȱǻŗǼDZȱŗŞşȬŘŖŜǯ Mayors Climate Protection Center. 2009. ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ- ǰȱDZȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ¢ǯȦȦȦ Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases in the Southeast USA 293
McKinsey&Company. 2009. ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢DZȱȱŘȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȬ ¢ȱŘŖŖşǯȱǰȱDZȱ ¢ǭ¢ǯȱ ȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȬĜȱ¢ǯȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȏȦȏȦŘŖŖŜȦȏŞȦŞȏŗŜȦ National Association of Counties. 2012. ȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱǯ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȦǯ¡ ȱǻȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱDZȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȱ. ǰȱDZȱȱȱǯ Research and Innovative Technology Administration. 2009. Ȃȱȱȱ- ¢ȱŘŖŖşǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ- Ȧȏȏȏ ¢ȦŘŖŖşȦȦǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŗşŝŝǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢- ȱŞȱǻǼDZȱśŗȬŞŗǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŗşşśǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱȱȱǯǯȱ ǰȱşȬŘŜǯȱȱǰȱDZȱȬǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȱǻȱ¢ȱĜ¢ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǰȱ ȱĴDZȦȦǯȦȱ ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱǯȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱ- ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȬǯĚǯȦȦǯ¡ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ- ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ŗşşŖȬŘŖŘśǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱŗşşŖȬŘŖŘśǯȱ- ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱŗşşŖȬŘŖŘŖǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱ- mate Strategies. ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱŗşşŖȬŘŖřŖǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯ ȱ ȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱĴȱDZȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ ȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ - ǯȦȦ ȏȏĴȏǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱǯȱȱŘȱȮȱȱǯȱ ȱŘȬşśŚŘŘŖŖşǯ ȱǻ¢ȱȱǼǯȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǯǯȱ ǰȱDZȱȱ Ĝȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦǯĚǯȦȦȬęǯ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȱ ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱĴȱȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱĜ¢ȱȬȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢ǯȱȱ- ǰȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ŗǯǯ¢ǯȦȦĴȦȦȏ ęǯȱȱ 294 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǯǯȱȱ ȬȬ ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ¢ǯȦȦȬȬȬ ȬȬ ȱȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ment. ȱȱȱDZȱȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦ¢ǯǵƽŘřśŞŞŗȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ¡ǯȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱęǯȱǰȱǯȱĴDZȦȦǯȦȦȦǯȱ ȱȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ- ship. ȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ Ȭ¢Ȧ ȏǯǛŗ ȱȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱęȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱĴDZȦȦǯȦȦ ȱȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯȦȦ ȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȦǯȱǰȱDZȱ ǯȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ¢ȦŘŗŚśşȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱŗŖȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱǰȱDZȱǯǯȱ ȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ ǯ ¡ǵ ƽŝŝŚŚ ȱ ȱ¢ȱĜǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱǯ ȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ¡ȱȱŗřśŗŚȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ- ȱǯĴDZȦȦ¢ǯǯȦȱ ǰȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǯȱȬǰȱ ¢ȱŘŝǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯȬǯȦȏȦȏ¢ȏȏȏȏȱ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ ŗśŗȱǻŗǼDZȱŜŖȬŜşǯ Chapter 13
Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA
LEAD AUTHORS Kirstin Dow (Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments; Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina) Lynne Carter (Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program and Coastal Sustainability Studio, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana)
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Ashley Brosius (Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments, Columbia, South Carolina) Ernesto Diaz (Puerto Rico Coastal Zone Management Program, San Juan, Puerto Rico) Rick Durbrow (Region 4, Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Rhonda Evans (Region 4, Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Stephanie Fauver (NOAA Coastal Services Center, Charleston, South Carolina) Tim Hayden (Engineer Research Development Center–CERL, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Champaign, Illinois) Bob Howard (Region 4, Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Kasey Jacobs (Puerto Rico Coastal Zone Management Program, San Juan, Puerto Rico) Glenn Landers (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville, Florida) Steve McNulty (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Raleigh, North Carolina) Janine Nicholson (Climate Change Strategies Program, NC Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Raleigh, North Carolina) Dale Quattrochi (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Alabama) Linda Rimer (Region 4, Environmental Protection Agency, Durham, North Carolina) Scott Shuford (City of Fayetteville, Fayetteville, North Carolina) Skip Stiles (Wetlands Watch, Norfolk, Virginia) Adam Terando (Department of Biology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina)
295 296 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱ ěȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ěǰȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱěȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ represent adaptation activity in the SE. ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĴǯȱěȱ to bring climate change adaptation strategies and methods into mainstream activities often are done through projects that focus on resilience and sustainability. The adapta- ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ adaptation planning and implementation, the authors anticipate a shift in activities ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱęǰȱȱȬęȱȱ ǯȱȱěȱǰȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯ
Key Findings
f ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ- ǰȱ ȱ ȱ Ĝȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ involvement, the diversity of entities involved, and integration of adaptation into other planning processes. f Adaptation activities cross all scales of planning from nongovernmental organi- £ȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǯ f ¢ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěǯ f ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- sent ongoing activities, the present focus of adaptation in the SE is on identi- fying relevant climate impacts and building partnerships to foster coordinated responses and sharing of resources. These partnerships foster additional aspects of adaptive capacity. Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA 297 f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ability assessment are mostly focused on sea level rise and severe storm threats facing coastal areas and communities. f ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ and uncertainty are limited. f ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱȬęȱȱȱȱ guide adaptation planning.
13.1 Definition of Adaptation ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȃȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱęȱȱȱȱ- ȱěȄȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ Questions that lead to an understanding of the adaptation ȱ¢ȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱǵȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǵȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǵȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ DZȱ
• ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǵȱ • ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ- ȱǵȱ • ȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǵȱ • ȱȱȱȱȱǵȱ • ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǵȱ
ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȃ¢Ȅȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȃȄȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ developing an understanding of current and future climate changes related to the ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ implementing strategies, monitoring outcomes, and re-evaluating those analyses and ȱǻȱŗřǯŗǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȬęȱěȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗřǯŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱ£ȱ ǰȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱ ǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ 298 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
1. Identify current and future climate changes relevant to the system 6. Monitor and 2. Assess the reeveluate implemented vulnerabilities and risk adaptation options to the system
4. Identify opportunities 3. Develop an adaptation 5. Implement adaptation for co-benefits and strategy using risk-based options synergies across sectors prioritization schemes
Figure 13.1 Adaptation planning is envisioned as a cyclical, iterative process incorporating these six steps (NRC 2010a).
ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǻȱ¡ǰȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ thinner and that of conceptual contributions and insights garnered from related or ȱȱ ǯȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ęȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ Ȭȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱĴȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȬęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ several studies have considered potential losses to SLR, there is less consideration of ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŗřǯŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱǰȱĜ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱě- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱęǰȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA 299
ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱěǰȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ¡ȱ stresses. In the SE, mainstreaming might include strategies that address population ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǯȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱęȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱǯȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ- ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǯ
13.2 Major Stresses on the Southeast
The Southeast is vulnerable to a number of direct and indirect impacts from the current ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱȱŘȱȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱĚǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ
Population Growth ȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŗşŝŜǰȱ ȱŗşŞŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞDzȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşDzȱ ȱȱȱřǼǯȱ Residential and business development has typically increased populations in coastal ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱěǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱĚǰȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱ ȱĴȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱĚȱ¢ȱŘŖŝŖȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗŘȱȱȱȱȱŗşǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĜǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱşŞƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ Research on land use planning along the Atlantic coast indicates that many state and ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱŗřǯŗǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¡ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱĴȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱ 300 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Table 13.1 Intensity of Development of Land along Atlantic Coast (USA) Land within 1m above High Water.
Likelihood of shore protectiona ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱlȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
Percent of dry land, by land use typeb Area Non-tidal Tidal Developed Intermediate Undeveloped Conservation Dry land Wetlands Wetlands State (%) (%) (%) (%) (km2) (km2) (km2) MA ŘŜ 29 22 23 110 24 řŘś RI řŜ 11 ŚŞ ś Ş 1 29 CT ŞŖ Ş ŝ ś 30 2 ŝŚ NY ŝř ŗŞ 4 Ŝ ŗŜś 10 149 ŜŜ ŗś 12 ŝ Řŝś ŗŝŘ şŞŖ PA 49 21 ŘŜ 4 24 3 Ŝ DE Řŝ ŘŜ 23 24 ŗŘŜ 32 řśŝ MD 19 ŗŜ śŜ 9 449 122 ŗŗŗŜ DC ŞŘ ś 14 0 40 1 39 22 32 ŝ řŜś ŗŚŞ ŗŘŝŘ NC ŘŞ 14 śś 3 ŗřŜŘ řŖśŖ ŗŘŝŘ SC ŘŞ 21 41 10 341 ŘŝŘ 2229 GA Řŝ ŗŜ 23 34 133 349 ŗśŗŗ Ŝś 10 12 13 ŗŘŞŜ ŘŗŘś 3213 Total 42 15 33 9 4665 6314 12882
aȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯ bȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding ǻȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱŗǰȱǯȱśǼ
Tourism ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ǻǯǯǰȱȱŘŖŖŚǰȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖśǰȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱŞƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ combination of permanent and seasonal populations along the coastline. Such invest- ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- teristics of the most populated coastal areas. The majority of Atlantic coastline areas that Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA 301
Box 13.1 Process for Identifying Adaptation Activities in the Southeast
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ investigation to identify adaptation activities ȱȱȱȱěȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ summary is based on a compilation of adaptation ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱǻ ȱ ȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŘǼDzȱȱȱȱȱ or manufacturing businesses. A second reason ȱȱȱȱȱȦ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱ- planned rather than autonomous forms of ad- ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱ versies is a potential source of under representing ȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱ of adaptation activities in the Southeast. Research from researchers contributing to the South- by Carolinas Integrated Sciences Assessments eastern Region Technical Input to the National ǻŘŖŗŘȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- Climate Assessment, and additional research ȱǼȱȱȱ ȱȱ- conducted by Regional Integrated Sciences and ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ Assessments teams in the Southeast. The types of they consciously avoid publicly identifying these documents represented included planning docu- activities as adaptation actions in order to avoid ǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ political controversy around climate change. Ȭ ȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȬęǰȱȱȱ- ǻȱȱ Ǽǰȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱ ȱȱ body of information represents the triangula- ȱǰȱ ȱĜ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ĝ¢ǯ mentioned above. The cases presented represent
¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ture and employment tied to coastal tourism could hinder the ability to adapt rapidly to ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ£ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ
Sea Level Rise and Land Subsidence ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ Ȭ ȱŗşşşǰȱȱȱȱ ŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ SLR. Additionally, many areas are prone to land subsidence due to the presence of ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ 302 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
and future sea level rise. In some cases, subsidence is the primary cause of relative ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¡ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱ¢ǰȱ¢Dzȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻ ȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘƖȱȱŗŗƖȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŘŖƖȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ
Drought and Water Supply Ȭȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱĴǰȱǰȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻĴDZȦȦ ǯĚǯȦǼǯ ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱĜ¢ǯȱ
13.3 Adaptation in the Southeast
ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱŗřǯŗǰȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ information is an indicative, rather than comprehensive, summary of overall trends in the Southeast. ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡Ȭȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŗřǯŗǼȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱ Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA 303
ȱȱęǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȬ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱěȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ- port the development of adaptive capacity in the region by developing educational ȱȱǻȱŗŚǼǰȱǰȱȱ£ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ researchers and practitioners that are applicable to the southeast region. This section ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ěǯ
Step 1: Identify Current and Future Climate Changes Relevant to the System ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ¢ǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǰȱŘŖŖŞǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ sessions held along the Albemarle Sound elicited concerns of residents about climate ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱę- ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŚȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖȱȱȱȱDzȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱDzȱDzȱȱȱDzȱȱȱ £ȱǻ Ǽȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ- ȱȱǰȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ have been recommended to start adaptation planning as part of their comprehensive ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȂȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱ¢ȱȱŚŞȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗŖŖǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱDzȱǰȱ Dzȱǰȱ Dzȱ ȱǰȱDzȱȱ Greensboro, NC. Since the time of that study, Greensboro, NC has integrated climate 304 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ¢ȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼDzȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŞȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱśƖȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ less than 1% reported having participated in community discussions, state, or federal climate change. Since the time of that study, other initiatives, including the Southeast ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱ this area.
Step 2: Assess the Vulnerabilities and Risk to the System ȱěȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ adaptation processes. Multi-sectoral vulnerability analyses to inform adaptation are un- ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǼȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŚǼǯȱ¢ȱ ěȱĚȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ Master Plan to incorporate both planning and action-ready projects that among other ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱśŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻĴDZȦȦ ǯ- ǯǯǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ understanding of local SLR scenarios to underpin developing adaptation plans. ȱěȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȬ- ȱ£ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȂȱ¢ȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȂȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȦȱȱ- ¢ȱȱǻȂȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ illustrates a case-based approach designed to inform a broader vulnerability assess- ment of military facilities in the SE to be conducted in the future. NASA is assessing ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȬȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖ, North Carolina Department ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Council. ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ Ȭ¢ȱěȱȱ ŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŘȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢£ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA 305
ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱŗřŖȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ It is developing a comprehensive climate change vulnerability assessment and recom- mended adaptation strategies for Puerto Rico. The project supported the establishment ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȬęȱ- £ǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱDZ • ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱǯ • ȱ ¢ǰȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ £ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ policies that could be implemented in Puerto Rico. • ȱȱęǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ civil society, the media, and the private sector. • ȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱ change adaptation, and mitigation. ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŚŞŖȱ documents related to climate change and the Caribbean and they have established a PR-CC-Listserv for announcements and sharing of relevant publications.
ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱǼȱǻĴDZȦȦ ǯĚ- ǯȦǼȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȬǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- DZȱǻŗǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱDzȱǻŘǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱǻřǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱǻŚǼȱȱȱȱ- ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Change Action Plan, including both mitigation and adaptation strategies. ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱȱĴǼȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱǻ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ for the cooperating counties. There are numerous successes as a result of the Compact in the areas of governance, ¢ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȃȱȱȄȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ implement special policies for areas that are particularly vulnerable to SLR and coastal Ěǯȱ 306 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ŘŖŜŖȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŗŗŖǰȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ of future trends for longer term and large scale investments in the region. ȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦȦȦƖŘŖƖŘŖ ƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖŘŖŗŗƖŘŖƖŘŖ ǯ
ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ missions, built infrastructure, and natural ecosystems on military lands. The 2010 Qua- ȱȱ ȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȃȱȱǻȱǼȱȱ complete a comprehensive assessment of all installations to assess the potential impacts ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȄȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- tion planning for climate change. Current adaptation research and planning initiatives for the SE NCA region are administered by the DoD Strategic Environmental Research ȱȱȱǻǼǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻŘŖŗŘǼǯ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱThe National Aero- ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ concern in the SE. As a proactive measure, NASA has implemented a Climate Adapta- ȱȱȱ ȱǻ Ǽȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ and vulnerability to climate change, and developing adaptation measures and plans for ȱȬȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ ȱǻǼǰȱDzȱ ¢ȱȱȱǻ ǼǰȱDzȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǼǰȱ Dzȱȱȱ¢ȱǼǰȱDzȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱĚȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŘŖǰȱŘŖśŖǰȱȱŘŖŞŖȯȱȱȱ- age temperature, average precipitation, SLR, SLR under a rapid ice melt scenario, days ȱ¡ȱȱȱşŖǚȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŚŖǚȱȱřŘǚȱǻ£ ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱ£ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ Given these projections, each Center is developing plans for implementation of ad- ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ are conducting research under the aegis of CASI that further elucidates the potential Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA 307
ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ constructing adaptation strategies.
ȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱThe Southeast Regional Assessment ȱǻǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ climate change and inform natural resource managers on strategies for conserving ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗśȱǯȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱ ecological, and socioeconomic processes to aid the development of robust adaptation strategies. Improving the robustness of decisions is primarily achieved by identifying ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱęȱ ¢ǰȱȱĚ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱęǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ are more robust to a range of future climatic changes. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ inputs to ecological process models. Avian range dynamics are being developed for the ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬ ĴȬȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŗŖŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ- ȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ and managers to plan for the potential impacts of climate and landscape changes using strategic habitat conservation and a process of adaptive management.
North Carolina Sea Level Rise Risk Management Study and iRisk Tool for the Inte- grated Hazard Risk Management. ȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱĜȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǞśȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ- Ǽȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ 308 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢Ȭ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱĚǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱ £ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǻǰȱǰȱ ȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȂȱ Ȭ ȱȱęȬȱ¢ǯȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱ on collecting asset information for buildings and other critical infrastructure at the ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ £ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ£ȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ£ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ help save lives, decrease property damage, and improve resiliency to natural disasters. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ- ning approach and the associated computer-based tools, including Durham, Edge- ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ
Step 3: Develop an Adaptation Strategy Using Risk-based Prioritization Schemes ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȂȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱěȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱThese include the com- ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱǻ¢ȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ȃȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱǯȱ£ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢Ȭȱ ȱĴȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ>ŽƵŝƐŝĂŶĂŽĂƐƚĂů,ĂnjĂƌĚDŝƟŐĂƟŽŶ'ƵŝĚĞŬ suggests ȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ĚȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱȱ£ȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ£ǯȱ ȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ impacts of climate stability, sea level, hydrology, geomorphology, natural habitats and Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA 309 species, land use changes, economy, human health, human infrastructure, and variable ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ SLR, more intense coastal storms, and changes in precipitation. ȱȱ¢ȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ£ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱȱěȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ- ȱ Ǽǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŞǰȱĴȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ Ǽȱ- ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ and a monitoring plan for estuarine systems. Indian River Lagoon NEP and the City ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȬǰȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻěȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ
Climate Ready Estuaries. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ronmental Protection Agency is a partnership among the National Estuary Programs ǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȬȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱ ȱȱȬęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȃȱ¢Ȅȱ¢ȱ providing tools and assistance to assess climate change vulnerability and to plan for ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱǻǼǰȱ Ĵȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ 310 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ǯ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȬȱěǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ public outreach and participation in updates to local comprehensive plans to integrate ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȬȱSLR visu- £ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱtips and early lessons.ȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱfocused on ȱȱȱȱȱȃ ȱȱ¢ȱ Ȅȱȱ- ing resiliency into habitat restoration and protection plans to communities around the ȱȱ¡ǯȱ
ȱǰȱǰȱǯȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢- ȱǻǯȱǰȱȱǼǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŝȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȬȱǰȱĚȱȱȬ£ȱȱǰȱ£ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ agencies, military programs, businesses, and faith communities to address these issues ǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ
ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯ The Climate Change Adapta- tion Inventory is a compilation of climate adaptation activities and research initiatives ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¡ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ- mate change or SLR. Research activities captured by the inventory are limited to those projects that have applications to coastal communities, particularly planning and devel- opment, land management, and socioeconomic initiatives. Currently available online as ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěǯ ȱ¢Ȃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǼȱěȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǻȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ
ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽǯȱ ȱȱȱȱŗşŖśǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱŗşřȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ŘŖŖşǼȱȱŗřǯŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱȱ Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA 311
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡Ǽǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱŗŖŖƸȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŝŜȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŗşŝŜǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱĴǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ of the forest. Pe- riodically, these management plans are re-evaluated to see if desired future conditions ȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǻ ǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯDZŞŖşŖȦǰȱȱ ȱǯȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŞȱǻ- ȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ǰȱǰȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱę¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǯǯǰȱ ęȱǰȱǰȱǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- cludes the forest plan, potential climate change impacts and management options.
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ Estuary. Adaptation to climate change along the North Carolina coast is the focus of an interagency pilot project to build resilience into the natural landscape, integrate part- ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ǼȱǻȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- source mission responsibilities. The SENRLG Landscape Conservation and Restoration ȱȱǻǼȱęȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- novative approach to address environmental challenges in long-term natural resource protection. The outcomes of the LCRPP are designed to demonstrate that collaborative, ȬȬȱȱȬȱǰȱǰȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱěǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ DZ 312 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
• ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ that promote resilience of the landscape and improved capacity to adapt to cli- ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯ • ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭęȱ through targeted funding of restoration and conservation projects. • ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬęȱȱȱ- ȱȱȬȬȱ ǯ • ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ- aptation. The TRIP proȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ partnerships across the SE.
Step 4: Identify Opportunities for Co-benefits and Synergies Across Sectors ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ order to inform adaptation strategies. Some vulnerability assessment and adapta- ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěǯȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȬęȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ at helping governments assess the economic value of adaptation is available that ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȬęȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱ ěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱǯ
ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱThe North Carolina ¢ȱȱǰȱǻ Ǽȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ Carolina state agencies include Departments of Transportation, Environment and Natural Resources, Commerce, Cultural Resources, and Agriculture and Consumer Dzȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱĴȱǰȱ ¡¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱĚǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱDZȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA 313
¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ across sectors and regions of the state. ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȬǰȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱDZȱ ǻŗǼȱ¢ȱȱȱDzȱǻŘǼȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱ ȱǻřǼȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱěȱ£ȱȃȬȄȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȮǰȱǰȱȱDZ • ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ • Promote comprehensive adaptation planning among state agencies. • ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱěǯȱ • ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ • Encourage broad collaboration and partnerships to leverage resources. • ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱ
Steps 5 and 6: Implement, Monitor, and Re-evaluate Implemented Adaptation Options The implementation, monitoring, and regular re-evaluation of adaptation options are steps of adaptive management strategies incorporated into climate adaptation recom- ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ of uncertainty. In practice, the process of adaptive management confronts several ȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¡ǯȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱThe Alligator ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗśŚǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȱȬ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱěǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱěǰȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢- ȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱȱȱDZ • ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- tat for a variety of species. 314 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
• ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ • ȱȬȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ habitat loss.
In addition, the project aims to establish migration corridors for species to move ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ¢ǰȱȱŚŖȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Plain refuges.
13.4 Supporting Adaptive Capacity ȱ¢ȱęȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¡- panding set of programs and centers that support adaption planning at all stages. The ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ climate of the SE, to development of climate datasets, geospatial datasets, and analysis ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ȱǰȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ- oping programs in the region.
Climate Ready Estuaries (www.epa.gov/cre/live.html) ȱȱȱȂȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱŗǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ DzȱŘǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱDzȱřǼȱȱȱȱȱ- DzȱȱŚǼȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ provides resources and tools important to monitor changes, and material to support development of adaptation plans for coastal communities and their related estuaries.
Climate Science Centers (www.doi.gov/csc/southeast/index.cfm) ȱǻȱȱȱǼȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȦ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ adapt to a changing climate. Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA 315
CSC: Coastal Services Center (www.csc.noaa.gov) ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ responsible for coastal resource management by providing technology, information, ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢Ȃȱ¡ȱȱȱǻȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱěȱ- ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- mation, people, and technology.
National Estuarine Research Reserves (NERRs) (www.nerrs.noaa.gov; gulfalliancetraining.org) There are 10 ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ- serves are living laboratories to investigate coastal concerns, including climate change and building resilience. ȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱǻȱȱǰȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱȬȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȬǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱ
Regional Integrated Science Assessment (RISA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) There are three RISA teams serving the SE. • CISA: Carolinas Integrated Science and Assessments (www.cisa.sc.edu).ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ity, range, relevance, and accessibility of climate information that is used for re- ȱȱȱȱȬȱěǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ methods of providing climate data, science, and education. • SCIPP: Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (www.southernclimate. org). The SCIPP focus is on research, education, and tool development around ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱěǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱDZȱǰȱ¡ǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ and Mississippi. • SECC: Southeast Climate Consortium (www.seclimate.org). The Southeast ȱ Ȃȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ - ȱȱȱȱȮȱȱȱȬȱȱ Ȯȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ- ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ DZȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǯ 316 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Ǽǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- mate information at the county level that is valuable to many other sectors. • Sea Grant Programs (www.seagrant.noaa.gov). There are 32 Sea Grant Pro- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱǰȱȦǰȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ developing a variety of outreach, education, and tools that focus on building re- ȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱěǯȱȱ are many tools and educational resources developed and in process through the various Sea Grant programs.
13.5 Summary ȱěȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȮȱȱ- ȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ numbers and diversity of groups involved, the mainstreaming of adaptation planning, ȱȱȱȱȱȱěǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǯ ¢ǰȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴǯȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ- ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱęȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ coordinated response of the authorities and resources. ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱȬęȱȱǯȱȱěȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱǯ
13.6 References
Ȃȱ¢ȱǰȱȂȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱDZȱ¡ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱDZȱ¢ȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ¢ǯȦȦȏ¢ȦȦ Ȧȏȏ ȏ ȏǯ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱŘŖŗŖȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ¢ǯ ȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ- ȱȦȱĴȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ¢ǰȱDZȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA 317
ǯ¡ǯȦȦȦęȦƖŘŖƖŘŖ¢ƖŘŖƖŘŖ ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ- ȱȱDZȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱśŗȱǻŚǼDZȱŝśŗȬŝŜŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȬȱ- tion and Communities Collaborative and The Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Pro- ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦȦȦęȦƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖ North%20Carolina.pdf. ȱȱ ȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱǽȱȱŘŜǰȱŘŖŗŘǾǯȱ- ȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦȬǯ Community Sustainability Council. 2010. ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ. ǰȱDZȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯȬǯȦȦ - ǯ¡ǵƽŗŗşŚǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱǯǯǯȱPal- ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱřŖśȱǻŗȮŚǼDZȱŘŘŝȬŘŚşǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ĴDZȦȦǯǯǯȦȦŘŖŗŖȏŗŘŗřǯǯ ¡ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȬǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ- ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ¢DZȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱǯȱ ŚŚŗȱǻŝŖşřǼDZȱśŞŝȬśŞŞǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ- partment of Defense. ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ¢ȱDZȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ĴDZȦȦǯǯȦȦǯęǵȏ ȏƽśŖŗŖşśǯ ȱǻȱȱȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦŚȦȦ- ȦȦ¡ǯǯ Evans, R.L. 2004. Rising Sea Levels and Moving Shorelines. ȱŚřȱǻŗǼDZȱŗȬŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ ȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯěǯȦěȦȦȬ ȬŖşȬŗŚǯǯ £ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ Ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȬȱ£ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱ - ¢ȱřŖȱǻŚǼDZȱŚşŖȬśŖśǯ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱǽȱȱŘŜǰȱŘŖŗŘǾǯȱȱ ȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱěǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱDZȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŗȱǻŞǼDZȱŞŚşȬŞŜŚǯ Ȃȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ Ȃȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯĚǯȦǯ 318 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯǯȱŗşŞŖǯȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŘŝȬŘřŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ- tions to environmental management. ȱȱŗŜȱǻŜǼDZȱŘŚŗŗȬŘŚŘśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ Ĵǰȱ ǯȱȬǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱClimatic Change 104 ǻŗǼDZȱŞşȬŗŗŗǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ hurricane inundation, property damages, and population impacted. ȱǭȱȱ- mentȱśřȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŜŚśȬŜśŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ- DZȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ- ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦǯǯȦȦȦ¢ǯǵƽŘŘŝŚŞřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ǰȱDZȱȱ¢ȱǯ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢DZȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱ DZȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ¢ǯȦ Ȧ ȦŘŖŗŖȦȏȏǯǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ A.K. Srivastava, M. Sugi. 2010. Tropical cyclones and climate change. ȱ ȱřȱǻřǼDZȱ ŗśŝȬŗŜřǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȮȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘşşȱǻŘǼDZȱŘŗŚȬŘŗŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱ ȱȱDZȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚǯȱClimatic ChangeȱŗŖŚȱǻřǼDZȱśŝśȬśşŝǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱŗŚȱȱȱȱǰȱ ¢ȱŗŝǰȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱǰȱ Louisiana. ȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ DZȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ǰȱDZȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŗȦȦȦ ǯǯ ȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱ changeǯȱǰȱDZȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦǯǯ ȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱ. ǰȱDZȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦǯǯ Natural Resources Defense Council. 2011. ȱǰȱDZȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱDZȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦęȦ ȏ ǯǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- oped coastlines. ¢ȱ ¢ȱ DZȱȱȱŘȱǻŗǼDZȱŞşȬşŞǯ ȱǻȱȱȱǼǯȱŗşŝŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŝŜǯȱ ǰȱDZȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦȦ- ȦȦşŚȬśŞŞǯ ȱǻȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢DZȱȬĴȬȱǻǼȱȱȱǽȱŗŞȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŘǾǯȱ- ȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦǯȦ¢Ȧǯ ȱȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱǽȱȱŘŜǰȱŘŖŗŘǾǯȱ ȱȱĴDZȦȦǯǯǯȦȦǯ¡ǯ Climate Adaptations in the Southeast USA 319
ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ- ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦǯȦȦ ȦȦ ȏ ¢ȏǯǯ North Carolina Department of Commerce. 2012. ǯȱǰȱDZȱǯǯȱȱȱ- ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦǯ North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources. 2010. ȱȱ¢- ȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources. ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱȱǯ ȱǻȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ǰȱDZȱȱȱǯ NRC. 2011. ȂȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ DZȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǯȱClimatic ChangeȱŗŖŝȱǻŗȬŘǼDZȱŘŖřȬŘŘřǯ Prete, P. 2010. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǯȱǰȱ DZȱǯǯȱȱǯ Puerto Rico Coastal Management Program. 2011. ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȬŘŖŗŘ. ȱ ǰȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦęȦȦȦ Ȧ£ȦȬȬŗȦȏȏ ȏŘǯǯ £ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱDZȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱ- Dzȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱǰȱŘŞȬřŖȱ ¢ȱŘŖŖşǯȱǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱşŖȱǻŚŖǼDZȱřśŘǯ £ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȂȱ DZȱȱȬ- ient NASA Centers. ĴȱŗśȱǻǼǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯȱ¡ǰȱDZȱǯȱĴDZȦȦǯȦȬȦ Resource-Conservation-and-Climate-Change. ěǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦȦȦ ęȦƖŘŖěƖŘŖǯǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ¢DZȱȱȱDZȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ ȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯǯ ȦȦȦ¢ǯǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŖşȬ ŘŖŗşǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȬşŗŝǯ Stratus Consulting Inc. 2010a. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱǰȱ ǯ Stratus Consulting Inc. 2010b. ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǰȱDZȱȱǰȱ ǯ £ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢¢ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ DZȱȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦȬȦśŞŘǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşŝŜǯȱȱȱDZȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱŜŜȱǻřǼDZȱřŗŚȬřřŖǯ The Center for Climate Strategies. 2012. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ- ǯȦ¢ȏȦȦ¡ǯ 320 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȬȱDZȱ ȱ ȱȱȬǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȏǯǯ The Nature Conservancy. 2010. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ ŘŖŗŖȬŘŖŗś. Ar- ǰȱDZȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦȦȦęȦƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱ Ȭ ǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱ DZȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ ȱ¢ǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱȂǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ȱȱĴȱŚǰȱŖŚŚŖŖŞDzȱDZŗŖǯŗŖŞŞȦŗŝŚŞȬşřŘŜȦŚȦŚȦŖŚŚŖŖŞǯȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱŗŞȱǻřǼDZȱŘŖśȬŘŘŞǯ ȱǻȱ ȱȱ ȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ £ǯȱ¡ǰȱȱ DZȱȱȱ ȱǻ ǼǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦ £Ȧǯ ȱǻǯǯȱ¢ȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȂȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱŘŘȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ¢ȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯ¢ǯȦȦŘȦȦȦȏŘŘŗŖǯ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱŘŖŗŘǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱ ǯ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱǯǯȱȱȮȱ ǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱ- ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȏȏ ȏŖŗŖŜ ǯǯ ȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱClimate ChangeǯȱǰȱDZȱĜȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱĴDZȦȦ- ĚǯǯȦȬȦǯ ȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦȦǯ¡ǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱ £ȱȱ ǯȱȱǰȱDZȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦ £ ǯǯ Chapter 14
Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training
LEAD AUTHOR LaDon Swann ([email protected]; Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium and Auburn University Marine Extension and Research Center, Mobile, Alabama)
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Julian Carroll (Mississippi State University, Starkville, Mississippi) Lynne Carter (Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) Stuart Foster (Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, Kentucky) Suzanne VanParreren (Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve, Darien, Georgia)
321 322 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
¡ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ continue to be essential in addressing the climate change needs facing the Southeast ǻǼȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ as practitioners, provides an introduction and details for planning, delivering, and evaluating climate change programs. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȃȱ Ȅȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȃȱȄȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ- ing the best available science delivered by credible and trusted educators is critical for successful implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ other to craft simple, clear, and consistent messages necessary to build trust and en- ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬ¢ȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ student grade levels. Programs also need to be established for state and local govern- ǰȱȱ£ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱěȱ ȱȱȬȱǯȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ to build stronger climate change education programs in the SE.
Key Findings
f ȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯ f ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ education. f ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯ f Ĵȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯ f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ě¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ programs for both groups. f ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ- tional design models. Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training 323 f ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ- ȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱ f Trust has to be established over time. f ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱęȱǯ f ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ audiences.
14.1 Why Climate Education is an Essential Part of Climate Science
ȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡- ȱȱǻȱŗşşŞǰȱ¢ȱŘŖŖśǰȱ ȱŗşŞŖǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- portion of the population to change their behavior and support critical mitigation and ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȬǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ change depends largely upon internal factors such as personal insight, commitment, ęǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŗşşŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ęȱȱǻȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱ ȃȂȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱǯȄȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȂȱ- ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ- tions are useful in developing programs to educate people about climate and corre- ȱȱDZȱ
1. ȱȱȱȂȱȦĴǵ 2. ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǵ 3. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǵȱ 4. ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǵȱ śǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǵ Ŝǯȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱǵ ŝǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǵ Şǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǵ
ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ- munication format, at the right time to the right audience. 324 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Research on the various interpretations of and responses to a changing climate ȱęȱ¡ȱȃȄȱȱȱȱǻ ĵȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱ along a continuum of acceptance of the reality and critical nature of a changing climate. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǼǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǻǼȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡DZȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȂȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ great deal of public uncertainty on the issue of a changing climate. Many members of ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȃȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǯȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȬȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻŝřƖǼȱȱȱǻśŞƖǼȱ- ǯȄȱǻȂȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ǯǼȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ure of scientists to craft simple, clear, and consistent messages and repeat them often ǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ĵȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱęȱ- ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ DZ
1. ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǵ 2. ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǵ 3. ȱȱȱ¢ȱǵ 4. ȱȱ ȱȱȱǵȱ
In addition, many members of the public believe there is still major disagreement ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱŗŖŖƖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱşŝƖȱȱȱ- mate scientists are convinced that human induced activities are responsible for recently ȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ
14.2 A Starting Point for Climate Education: Climate versus Weather
ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ DzȱȱȱĚDzȱǰȱ ȱȱȱDzȱȱ- ǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȂȱ ǯȱȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ climate. Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training 325
14.3 Context for Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training
ȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ audiences described later in this chapter. Practitioners of climate education programs ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱDZ
• ¢ȱ ȱ ǻǼDZȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ- ȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱǯ • ȱ ȱ¢DZȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ • ¢£ȱȱȱ¡DZȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱDzȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĴǯ • ȱȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ior, the condition and criteria. The component of an objective that describes the ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱǯ • ȱȱ DZȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȬǰȱȱȱȱȦȱǯ • ȱ ȱ¢DZȱȬȱǰȱȱǰȱ learner participation, assessment. • Develop and Select Instructional Materials. • ȱȱȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱȱ- tify areas of the instructional materials that are in need of improvement. • ȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯ • Design and Conduct Summative Evaluation.
Three Classifications of Education ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱě¢ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱDZȱǰȱǰȱȱǯ
1. Formal educationȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ ȬŗŘǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱŗşŝřǼǯȱ 2. Nonformal education is any intentional and systematic educational enterprise, ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡£ȱȱǻȱ ŗşşřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ¡- ibility than formal education. 326 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
3. Informal educationȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱ¢¢ȱ¡- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ŗşşřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱǰȱ£ǰȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱ opportunities.
Adult education often uses nonformal methods, as does youth education is some ǰȱȱ¡ǰȱŚȬ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ- ȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱDZ
1. Adults are autonomous and self-directed. They need to be free to direct them- selves. Their teachers must actively involve adult participants in the learning ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ę¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - Ȃȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱĚȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- sponsibility for presentations and group leadership. Teachers should act as fa- ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯ 2. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ Ȭȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȂȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ relevant to the topic. Teachers must relate theories and concepts to the partici- ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯ 3. ȱȱȬǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱĴǯȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱ ǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ course. 4. Adults are relevancy-oriented. They must see a reason for learning something. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ue to them. Therefore, instructors must identify objectives for adult participants before the course begins. This need for relevance also means that theories and ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱǯ śǯȱ Adults are practical, focusing on the aspects of a lesson most useful to them in ȱ ǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ - ȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ the job. Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training 327
Ŝǯȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱ - ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ
Engagement in the Climate Discussion £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ěȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ - ȱȂȱȱȃȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ Ȅȱǻȱ ŗşşşǼȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ DZ
1. ǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǵ 2. ȱȱǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǵȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǵ 3. ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ£Ȃȱȱȱȱȱ¢- sis that informs constituents about important and controversial issues in a fac- ȱȱ¢ȱǵ 4. ¢ǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ǵȱ ȱȱ£Ȃȱ¡- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱǵ śǯȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȬ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǵ Ŝǯȱ ǯȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¡£ȱȱȱȱ ȱǵȱȱȱ£Ȃȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǵ ŝǯȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ £ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱǵ
EOET and Downscaling of Climate Information ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȂȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŗşşŞǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ£ȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱǻǯǯȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱ 328 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱ Ǽǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼȱ¢ȱȱŜŘȱȬȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱęȱ in south Louisiana or a beachfront community in North Carolina.
Who are the Current Audiences? ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȬŗŘȱȱȱ- ences, including focus on the general public, industry, governmental planners, and resources managers. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱřǰŖŖŖȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱěȱ¢ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȬȱȱȱǻǼȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱǯ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱ planning. The study results are useful in planning climate information needs because ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ£ȱǻ£ȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ include maps of projected relative sea level rise overlaying vulnerable infrastructure and neighborhoods. Another important audience is K-12 teachers and their students. Improving climate literacy in K-12 education programs lays the foundation for long-term improvements in ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǼȱǻŘŖŖŞȱȱŘŖŖşǼȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¡DZ Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training 329
1. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱĴǯȱ 2. ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȬȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱ 3. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱ 4. ȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ
What Is Success and How Should It Be Measured Climate change education programs must be evaluated in order to be responsive to and ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǼȱȱęȱǻǰȱǰȱ ȱǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱę- ȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŗşşřǼǯȱ The purpose of formative evaluation is to validate or ensure that the instruction ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ education programs should undergo a formative evaluation to determine age-appro- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ as audience accessibility. The return on the instructional investment should be calcu- lated during the formative stage of the program. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱĜ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȦȬȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱĚ¡ȱȱ are due to the instruction. In practice a post-test only design is common but is only use- ȱ ȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ing the instruction and the control group not receiving the instruction. Implementation of adaptation plans, changes in behavior, policy changes, and ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ climate education programs. Resiliency and adaptation to climate change and ocean ęǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ communities to reduce vulnerability to sea level rise based on climate change projec- ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱ- municate the science and adaptation-relevant information to practitioners.
Role of Credible Science in EOET ȱȱęȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱDzȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ 330 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
set of best practices that have evolved over the past decade or so for ensuring that sci- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ credible, publicly legitimate, and especially relevant to policy and management deci- ǯȱ ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢£ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱęǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱě¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ¢ȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱěȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȃȄȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻ¢Ǽǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȃ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǵȄȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯ
Trust, Risk, and Credible Science Climate Education and Communication ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱ Ĵǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ provided. In order to ensure a transparent, traceable account of recommended actions, ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱ- tion to implementation of mitigation of or adaptation to climate change impacts. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ- ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȃȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱDzȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŗşşŘǰȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȂȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ can sharply increase trust through the establishment of a similar value system among ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱ Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training 331 average American adult, regardless of age, income, or education, generally does not ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȬěȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱĚ ȱ Ĵȱǻ¢ȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱŞŖƖȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱĚȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱŗŘƖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ£ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱĴȱ ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŘǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱęȱ¡ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯ
Needs Based Content ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖDzȱ ǰȱȱDzȱȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱęȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ DZ 1. Establish climate education inventories that can be used to develop an inventory of plans, lessons learned, and best management practices. 2. Establish a clear vocabulary on climate science that is understandable by dispa- rate audiences. 3. Develop reliable and consistent information to frame messages. 4. ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱ£ȱȱ ǯ śǯȱ Develop transparent and participatory approaches to the selection of materials for educational programs. Ŝǯȱ Support ongoing information clearinghouses. ŝǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǰȱǰȱ ¡ȱȱȱǯ Şǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȬęȱ¢ǯ 9. Sustain mechanisms for regional collaboration. 10. Address issues of scale. 11. ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǯ 332 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ǼȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱǰȱȃ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȄȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡DZ 1. A broad range of tailored information and tools is needed for the diversity of ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ 2. ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ responsibilities, competing priorities, and resource constraints. 3. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ěǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ on any one region or sector, and ensures the credibility and comprehensiveness of information and policy.
ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱ £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱ participation from partners and the public. These partnerships include federal, state, ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ groups.
State STEM Education Standards ǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ strong emphasis on STEM education often integrate science, technology, engineering, ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱDZ 1. ȱȱȱȱȱǯ 2. ¡ȱȱȱȱǯ 3. Provide ongoing and sustainable STEM professional development. 4. Encourage STEM pre-service teacher training. śǯȱ Recruit and retain STEM teachers.
ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training 333
ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱŘŖŖşȬŘŖŘşȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- tinuum of lifelong formal and informal education and outreach opportunities in ocean, ǰȱ ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǯ
14.4 Delivery Methods ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŖŗǰȱȱŗşşřǼǯ
Traditional Delivery ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Ĵǰȱǰȱęȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱěȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ their inception. Designers of these nonformal education programs understand the need to develop and adopt methods delivery methods that are most appropriate for ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȬȱ educational activities.
Role of Media in Climate Education Delivery ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱę¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȃ¢ȱ¢ǰȄȱşşƖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱ¡ȱ£ȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȯ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ programs are easily accessible and often provided free through a personal computer, ǰȱȱ Ȭȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱŘřƖȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȂȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ - ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱŞŖŖȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱǻȂȱȱǯȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- able climate science. 334 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǻĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦęȦ¢ǯǼDZ
1. ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱȱ¢ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǵ 2. ¢ȱȱȱǯ 3. ¢ȱȱȱ ǯ 4. ȱȱȱ ǯ śǯȱ ¢DZȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǵ
14.5 Program Integration
¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦ- ȦǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢Dzȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱDzȱȱȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖȱȱŘŖŗŗǼȱ
Mandates ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱěǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŖşȬŘŖŘşȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ program. ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ£ǰȱȱěǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ students, federal agencies have begun the process of implementing programs and ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training 335
14.6 Barriers to Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training Regarding Climate Change
ȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ DZȱ
1. ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ Ĝȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȂȱǯ 2. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ implement mitigation and adaptation strategies. 3. ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ĵȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ 4. ȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ śǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ education strategies among myriad federal agencies, nongovernmental organi- £ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ Ŝǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȂȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ĵȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ
ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ the community level. As a result, Culver et al. recommended case studies and partner- ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ¢ȱęȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ
14.7 Ongoing Education, Outreach, Extension and Training Programs
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ Ȭȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȬŗŘȱ ȱ¢ȱȱDzȱȱȱȱȱęȱDzȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱDzȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ 336 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŘǼȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ventory of these types of services.
ȱĜȱȱȱȱ ȱĜȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱĜȱȱ- mental climate research from local to global aspects, and provides solicited testimony ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ Courts regarding climate and climate change issues. Website:ȱĴDZȦȦ¡ǯǯǯ ȦȦ
Animal Agriculture and Climate Change Ȃȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱ changes. Website: ĴDZȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦȦŜŖŝŖŘȦȬȬȬ climate-change
Center for Coastal Ecology ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱěǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ Website: ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȱ
CHARM–Community Health and Resource Management Addresses climate adaptation issues through a no-regrets approach of good planning ȱ¡ȱȱ£ǯȱWebsite:ȱĴDZȦȦ ǯȬǯ
Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȬŗŜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ classroom or laboratory to help communicate these topics to their students. Website: ĴDZȦȦǯǯȦǯ
Climate Community of Practice in the Gulf of Mexico ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ level rise and other climate-related issues. Through participation in the community, ¡ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ change. Website:ȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦǯ Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training 337
Climate Literacy Education and Research ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȬ ¢ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ variety of scales. Website: ĴDZȦȦǯǯȦȬ¢
Climate Resilient Communities Program The program goal is to help local governments build more resilient communities, through greater resilience of social, environmental, and economic systems. The pro- gram aggregates and develops information needed for local governments to under- stand climate change, to understand their vulnerabilities, to identify strategies ap- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ verifying success. Website:ȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ
Georgia Interfaith Power & Light ȱ£Ȃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱěǯȱWeb- site:ȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯ
Gulf Coast Community Handbook, Tampa Bay Estuary Program ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ incorporating resiliency into habitat restoration and protection plans to communities ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȃȱȄȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱěȱ ȱ contribute to climate change adaptation in the estuary by providing on-the-ground ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ into habitat restoration and protection strategies, including a summary of best prac- tices. Website:ȱĴDZDZȦȦ ǯǯ
Kentucky Climate Center ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢Ȃȱ ǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ing a mesonet to support both operational and research needs. Website:ȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ¢ǯ
King Tide Photo Documentary Project ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱ ǯȱWebsite: ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯ 338 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) This program conducts research, education, and outreach on climate change and Ȯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ education activities include a graduate course, an undergraduate internship program, ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱǰȱȱ course. Website: ĴDZȦȦǯ
Public Water Supply Utilities Climate Impacts Working Group (PWSU-CIWG) ȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱȬ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱWebsite: ĴDZȦȦ ǯĚǯȦ ȏȦȬ ǯ
Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve (SINERR) Coastal Training Program The SINERR Coastal Training Program provides support and information to elected Ĝȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ǯȱWeb- site: ĴDZȦȦ ǯȬǯȦ
Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) ȱȱȱȱŝŖȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ and other education and outreach programs. Target audiences of the SECC currently £ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱWebsites: ĴDZȦȦǯDzȱ ĴDZȦȦǯ
Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱȱǼȱȱǻȱȱŗřǼǯȱȱȦ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱDZȱȱȱȱDzȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱDzȱ ȱȱȱ DzȱȱDzȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱWebsite: ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯ Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training 339
ȱȱĜȱȱȱ ȱĜȱȱȱȱDZȱǰȱ¡ǰȱȱǯȱȱ outreach and education goals are to increase public and professional understanding of climate science, monitoring, and prediction and to build capacity for sectoral ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱǯȱWebsite: ĴDZȦȦȬǯ ncsu.edu
Tennessee Climatological Service ȱȱȱȱȱȱĜǰȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱǻ ǰȱǰȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Website:ȱĴDZȦȦǯǯȦ
14.8 Conclusions
ȱ¡ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ for K-12 education, higher education, state or local governments, or for the general public. Targeted programs are essential to reach the desired program goals or out- comes including improving climate literacy, adaptation strategies, or climate-friendly ȱǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ and evaluated against local, regional and national climate program goals and objectives ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ
14.9 References
ȱǻȱ¢ȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱDZȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȦȬȬǯȱ ȱǻȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱǼǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱǯȱ- ǰȱDZȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢ȦǯǵƽŗŞřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ Ȭǯ ǯȦ ȦȦȏȦ¡ǯ £ȱȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ £ȱȱ¢ȱDZȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱDZȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ£ȱȱ ǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱ 2010. ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱDZȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱ ȱĜǯ 340 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ǰȱǯǯȱŗşşŞǯȱ ȱȱDZȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- cation. ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŝȱǻŚǼDZȱŘşŝȬřŖşǯ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŘȱǻĴDZȦȦ¢¢ǯȦȱȏȏǼ ǰȱǯȱŗşŝřǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱǰȱDZȱ ȱ Council for Educational Development. ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¡- tension conducted via social media. ȱȱ¡ȱŚşȱǻŜǼDZȱŜŗǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦŘŖŗŗȦĴŗǯǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱ¢ȱȱDZȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŘŖŖśǯǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ¡ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱřȬśǰȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱ DZȱ Pearson Education. ǰȱǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱȱȱǵȱ ȱȱȱȱřŚȱǻŚǼǯȱĴDZȦȦǯ ǯǯȦȦȦřŚȦřŚȬŖŚȬŝŘǯǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ. Arling- ȱDZȱȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦǯȦȦȏ ǯǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱDZȱȱȱěȱȱǯǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱDZȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ment.ȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ£ǯȦȦƖŘŖ ȦȬ- ƖŘŖŘŖŖŞȦȬȬǯǯ ȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱ¢ǯȱ- Ȭȱȱ ȱǯȱĴDZȦȦǯȦȦȦŗŘȬŖřŜǯǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ processes. ȱȱ¡ȱŚřȱǻŗǼDZȱŗřǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŘŖŖś¢Ȧřǯ ǰȱǯȱŗşşŘǯȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱŗŚȱǻŗşşŘǼDZȱŗśŘȬŗŝŜǯȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯ¢ȬȬǯȦŗşşŘȬŘȦ ȏ ȏŗşşŘǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱDZȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǻǼǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȏ¢Ȧ ȏęǵ ƽŘŝŖǭƽȬŘśŝǯǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱǰȱȱȱDZȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱŚşȱǻŗǼDZȱŘŖȬřŚǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŗşŞŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱǰȱ DZȱȱǯ ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ Ȃȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱ ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦǯ¢ǯȦȦęȦ- May2011.pdf. ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱ Ȃȱ¡ȱȂǰȱ¢ȱ ŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱ ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦǯ¢ǯ ȦȦęȦ¡¢ŘŖŗŗǯǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȂȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŗȬŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ¢ȱśŘȱǻŘǼDZȱ ŗśśȬŗşŚǯ Southeast USA Regional Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training 341
ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱěǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱDZȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǰȱȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ ȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦȦęȦȦȦ- ȏȏ¢ȏȏȏȏŖŗȬŗŘȬŗŘǯǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱǰȱDZȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦȏ- ¢ȏȬęǯǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱDZȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱDZȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯ ǯȦȦ Ȧ ȏȏȏŖřȏŘŖȏŖŞǯǯ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǼǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȬ 2029ǯȱǰȱDZȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦ¡ǯǯ National Research Council. 2011. ȱȱDZȱ ǰȱǰȱȱǯȱ- ǰȱDZȱȱȱȱǯ National Research Council. 2010. ȱȱěȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ ȱȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦǯǵȏƽŗŘŝŞŚǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ DZȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ ȏȏȏǯȱ Ȃǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ- ȱDZȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¡ȱŚşȱǻŜǼDZȱŜ Řǯȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŘŖŗŗȦŘǯǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ¢ȬȱȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǰȱDZȱ¢ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ Department. ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱDZȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ- ǰȱDZȱ ȱȱǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ ǯȦDžȦȦȦȦȦŘŖŗŖȦ ȏȏȏ¢ȏ ȏǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŗşşřǯȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ learners. ȱǭȱ ȱřŘȱǻŜǼDZȱŘŘȬŘŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱ£DZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱŘŖȱǻśǼȱDZŝŗřȬŝŗşǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱDZȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ¡ǰȱȱ DZȱǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ǯȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦȦŝŗŖǯ ǰȱǯǯ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ¢ ŜŚȱǻŗŖǼDZȱŚŞȬśřǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ ȱȱǽǾDZȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¡ȱŚşȱǻŗǼDZȱ ŗŗǯȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯȦȦŘŖŗŗ¢Ȧŗǯǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ DZȱǯȱȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱDZȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ- ¢ is based on one of a series of regional technical reports prepared ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱŗŖŖȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ- ing, geography, hydrology, planning, resource management, agriculture, ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢£ȱȱ ȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ability has strong physical, biological, and social impacts for the southeast- ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ for mitigation and potential solutions for adaptation to climate variabil- ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱę¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ous for the present and future generations.
Cover design: Maureen Gately Book design: Livia Kent
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