N$%"',$! C!"#$%& A++&++#&,% R&."',$! T&/),"/$! I,0*% R&0'1% S&1"&+ C!"#$%& '( %)& S'*%)&$+% U,"%&- S%$%&+ VARIABILITY, CHANGE, IMPACTS, AND VULNERABILITY Edited by: Keith T. Ingram Kirstin Dow Lynne Carter Julie Anderson Climate of the Southeast United States Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability © 2013 Southeast Climate Consortium All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. Reproduction of this report by electronic means for personal and noncommercial purposes ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Printed on recycled, acid-free paper ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Citation: ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗřǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱDZȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ǯȱȱDZȱ ȱǯ Keywords:ȱȬĴȬȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱ climate impacts, climate modeling, climate variability, coastal, drought, education, electric ȱǰȱ¡ȱ ǰȱĚǰȱȱǰȱ£ǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱǰȱȬȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱęǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȬ ȱ intrusion, sea level rise, silviculture, social vulnerability, Southeast, storm surge, tropical ǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǰȱȬȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ ǰȱ ę ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ Tribal Government or Non-governmental entity. Front Cover Images: ȱǰȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȂȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱDzȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǯȱDzȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱDzȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ¢ȱȱDzȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱDzȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱĴǯ About This Series This report is published as one of a series of technical inputs to the Third National ȱȱǻǼȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ and Congress every four years on the status of climate change science and impacts. The NCA informs the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future. The NCA report process integrates ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȂȱǯ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȬȱ£- ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ input reports highlighting past climate trends, projected climate change, and impacts ȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ing this technical input. The lead authors for related chapters in the Third NCA report, ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱDZ ȱȱȱęȱ DZȱ ȱȱ ȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱDZȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱDZȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱ¡ȱǻ Ǽȱ ȱȱ ǯ¡ǯȦ. Printed copies are avail- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ǯǯȦǯȱ Climate of the Southeast United States Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability EDITORS Keith T. Ingram (University of Florida) Kirstin Dow (University of South Carolina) Lynne Carter (Louisiana State University) Julie Anderson (Louisiana State University) EDITORIAL ASSISTANCE Eleanor K. Sommer (Gainesville, Florida) ȱȩȱȱȩȱ Acknowledgements ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼǯȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ £ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ Editor's Note: Access to color maps and graphs for this document are avail- ȱȱĴDZȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱDZȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ Disclaimer: ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǯ ix Contents Acknowledgements ix CHAPTER 1 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1.1 Diversity and Vulnerabilities 3 1.2 Time-scales of Interest to Southeast Decision Makers 5 1.3 Future Scenarios 5 1.4 Process for Developing this Book 6 1.5 Report Organization 7 1.6 References 7 CHAPTER 2 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST USA: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE 8 2.1 General Description 9 2.2 Extreme Events 14 2.3 Trends 18 2.4 Future Projections 26 2.5 References 36 CHAPTER 3 HUMAN HEALTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 43 3.1 Climate Change and Human Health 44 3.2 Heat and Cold 45 3.3 Air Quality Effects on Respiratory and Airway Diseases 46 3.4 Storms, Extreme Weather, and Sea Level Rise 47 3.5 Harmful Algal Blooms and Marine Toxins 48 3.6 Vector-borne and Zoonotic Disease 51 3.7 Water Quality and Quantity 52 3.8 Human Migration and Displacement and Healthcare Disruption 54 3.9 References 55 CHAPTER 4 ENERGY PRODUCTION, USE, AND VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 62 4.1 Status and Outlook for Energy Production and Use in the Southeast 63 4.2 Impact of Climate Change on Energy Supply and Demand in the Southeast 74 4.3 Key Issues and Uncertainties 81 4.4 References 82 CHAPTER 5 CLIMATE INTERACTIONS WITH THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 86 5.1 Background 87 5.2 Air Quality 89 5.3 The Urban Heat Island Effect 90 5.4 Effects on Precipitation 92 5.5 Effects on the Wild Land-Urban Interface (WUI) 96 5.6 Vulnerability and Risks to Tourism 97 5.7 Impacts on Energy, Poverty, and Socioeconomic Vulnerability 99 5.8 Impacts on National Security 101 5.9 Impacts on Urban Migration 101 5.10 Impacts on Coastal Environments 102 5.11 Summary of Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment 102 5.12 References 103 CHAPTER 6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND TRANSPORTATION IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 109 6.1 Evaluation of Southeast Transportation Systems 110 6.2 Climate Change and Transportation Infrastructure 111 6.3 Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation Systems 112 6.4 Conclusions 124 6.5 References 126 CHAPTER 7 AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 128 7.1 Agriculture in the Southeast USA 130 7.2 Climate Sensitivities and Vulnerabilities 133 7.3 Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in the Southeast USA 143 7.4 Assessment and Research Needs 151 7.5 References 155 CHAPTER 8 FORESTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 165 8.1 Historical Perspective 166 8.2 Southeastern Forest Types 167 8.3 Changes in Forest Type Across the South 172 8.4 Current and Projected Forest Stresses 173 8.5 Ecosystem Services 177 8.6 Adaptation and Mitigation Options 180 8.7 Conclusions 183 8.8 References 183 CHAPTER 9 EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 190 9.1 Background 191 9.2 Climate Change Effects 193 9.3 Complicating Factors 200 9.4 Adaptation and Mitigation 201 9.5 Research Needs 203 9.6 References 204 CHAPTER 10 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 210 10.1 Water Resources in the Southeast 212 10.2 Key Constraints to Water Resources in the Southeast 212 10.3 Historical Climate Trends 215 10.4 Uncertainty in Predicting Future Climate and Hydrologic Impacts 215 10.5 Water Resources Impacts of Climate Change 216 10.6 Mitigation and Adaptation Options 229 10.7 References 230 CHAPTER 11 THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS OF THE SOUTHEAST USA 237 11.1 Background 240 11.2 Southeastern Freshwater Aquatic Ecosystems 240 11.3 Southeastern Savannas 244 11.4 Southeastern Freshwater Marshes and Swamps 246 11.5 Southeastern Tidal Marshes and Swamps 250 11.6 Coral Reefs of the Southeast USA 254 11.7 Summary 257 11.8 References 259 CHAPTER 12 MITIGATION OF GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 271 12.1 Definitions 272 12.2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks in the Southeast 273 12.3 GHG Emission Reduction Activities 278 12.4 Research Needs and Uncertainties 290 12.5 References 291 CHAPTER 13 CLIMATE ADAPTATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST USA 295 13.1 Definition of Adaptation 297 13.2 Major Stresses on the Southeast 299 13.3 Adaptation in the Southeast 302 13.4 Supporting Adaptive Capacity 314 13.5 Summary 316 13.6 References 316 CHAPTER 14 SOUTHEAST USA REGIONAL CLIMATE EXTENSION, OUTREACH, EDUCATION, AND TRAINING 321 14.1 Why Climate Education Is an Essential Part of Climate Science 323 14.2 A Starting Point for Climate Education: Climate versus Weather 324 14.3 Context for Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training 325 14.4 Delivery Methods 333 14.5 Program Integration 334 14.6 Barriers to Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training Regarding Climate Change 335 14.7 Ongoing Education, Outreach, Extension, and Training Programs 335 14.8 Conclusions 339 14.9 References 339 Chapter 1 Climate Change in the Southeast USA: Executive Summary LEAD AUTHORS Keith T. Ingram ([email protected]; Southeast Climate Consortium, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Lynne Carter (Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) Kirstin DoW (Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments; Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina) CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Julie Anderson (School of ReneWable Natural Resources, Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, Louisiana) Senthold Asseng (Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida) Charles Hopkinson (Department of Marine Sciences, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia) Charles Konrad (Southeast Regional Climate Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina) Steven McNulty (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) Kenneth Mitchell (Region IV, US Environmental Protection Agency, Atlanta, Georgia) Kevin Moody (Region IV, US Department of Transportation, Atlanta, Georgia) Dale Quattrochi (Marshall Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Huntsville, Alabama) Paul Schramm (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia) Ge Sun (Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina) LaDon SWann (Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium and Auburn University Marine Extension and Research Center, Mobile, Alabama) 1 2 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşDzȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱŗŗȱ ȱȱǻȱŗǯŗǼǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱěȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ Figure 1.1 Map of the states in the Southeast region for the US National Climate Assessment. Note