Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report Impact Forecasting — 2011 Contents Executive Summary: 2011’s Natural Disaster Events 3 2011 Climate Review 7 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review 9 2011 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Review 10 2011 Western Pacific Typhoon Season Review 11 2011 Indian Ocean and Southern Pacific Cyclone Season Review 12 2011 United States Tornado Season Review 13 2011 United States Brushfire Season Review 14 2012 Climate and Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts 15 Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: January – March 2012 16 Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: March – May 2012 17 Historical Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions 18 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks 20 2011 Monthly Catastrophe Review 21 United States 21 Remainder of North America (Canada, Mexico, Bermuda, Caribbean Islands) 34 South America 40 Europe 45 Africa 50 Asia 53 Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific Islands) 68 Appendix A: Tropical System Frequency Correlations 72 Atlantic Ocean Basin (ENSO) 72 Eastern Pacific Ocean Basin (ENSO) 73 Western Pacific Ocean Basin (ENSO) 74 Southern Hemisphere (ENSO) 75 Appendix B: Historic Global Natural Disaster Events (1980-2011) 76 Top 10 Economic Loss Events 76 Top 10 Insured Loss Events 76 Top 10 Fatality Events 77 Contacts 78 About Impact Forecasting 79 About Aon Benfield 79 Impact Forecasting Executive Summary: 2011’s Natural Disaster Events The world endured a very active year in 2011, marked by a series of devastating natural disaster events. Japan suffered from a historic earthquake and tsunami that left nearly 16,000 people dead. The greater Christchurch metropolitan region in New Zealand faced a major rebuilding effort after being struck by two separate earthquakes. Extraordinary severe weather outbreaks in the United States spawned a record number of tornadoes, damaging winds and destructive hail. Major flooding covered vast areas of Southeast Asia, while floods also impacted parts of Australia, North America and South America. Hurricane Irene made landfall in the United States, the first U.S. landfalling hurricane since 2008. Ten additional tropical cyclone landfalls occurred worldwide. 2011 was the eleventh warmest year in history since temperature data began being recorded in 1880. Global natural disaster activity in 2011 produced 253 separate events that caused significant impacts to various parts of the world. The 253 events (defined as natural meteorological or climatological occurrences that caused noteworthy insurance losses, economic losses, human casualties or a large humanitarian impact) aggregated to an economic loss of USD435 billion and insured losses of USD107 billion. The economic losses in 2011 make it the costliest natural disaster year on record. The insured losses incurred in 2011 make it the second costliest year on record – second only to 2005’s USD120 billion, which was dominated by the USD90 billion in losses causedby major hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. Asia, the United States and Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific Islands) endured the majority of insured losses in 2011 due to historic earthquakes in Asia and Oceania, widespread springtime U.S. severe weather, and flooding in Asia and Oceania. The economic losses were dominated by the Japan earthquake and tsunami, which became the costliest economic natural disaster event on record. Extensive flooding in Thailand, two earthquake strikes in New Zealand and numerous severe weather outbreaks in the United States each led to significant economic losses as well. Of the top 10 insured natural catastrophe events in 2011, four were severe weather events (tornadoes, hail or damaging winds), three were earthquake events, two were flood events and one was a tropical cyclone event. The costliest insured loss and economic loss event of the year was the Japan earthquake and tsunami, which caused an estimated USD35 billion in insured losses and approximately USD210 billion in economic losses. The magnitude-9.0 earthquake and subsequent tsunami occurred on March 11th, and led to the deaths of at least 15,844 people in Japan alone. Exhibit 1 shows the Top 10 Insured Loss Events in 2011 that caused a combined USD86.25 billion in losses, or nearly 81 percent of the year’s insured loss total. The remaining USD20.90 billion was a combination of losses from winter weather, severe weather, flooding, tropical cyclones, earthquakes, drought, volcano eruptions and wildfires. 3 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report Exhibit 1: Top 10 Insured Loss Events in 2011 # Of # Of Structures/ Economic Loss Insured Loss Event Date Event Name Or Type Event Location Deaths Claims Estimates (USD) Estimates (USD) 3/11 Earthquake Japan 15,844 1,100,000 210.00 billion 35.00 billion 2/22 Earthquake New Zealand 182 156,313 *30.00 billion 13.50 billion 7/25-11/30 Flooding Thailand 790 4,000,000 45.00 billion 10.78 billion 4/22-4/28 Severe Weather U.S. (Southeast, Plains, Midwest) 344 700,000 10.20 billion 7.30 billion 5/21-5/27 Severe Weather U.S. (Plains, Midwest, Southeast) 181 750,000 9.10 billion 6.75 billion 8/22-8/30 HU Irene U.S., Bahamas, Caribbean Isl. 46 835,000 8.55 billion 5.00 billion 12/21-1/14 Flooding Australia (Queensland) 36 58,463 30.00 billion 2.42 billion 4/3-4/5 Severe Weather U.S. (Midwest, Southeast, Plains) 9 225,000 2.80 billion 2.00 billion 6/13 Earthquake New Zealand 1 53,963 *30.00 billion 1.80 billion 4/14-4/16 Severe Weather U.S. (Plains, Southeast, Midwest) 48 150,000 2.50 billion 1.70 billion All Other Events 86.69 billion 20.90 billion Totals 434.84 billion 107.15 billion *The New Zealand government has only released a combined USD30 billion economic loss total for the September 2010, February 2011 and June 2011 EQ events. Exhibit 2: Top 10 Human Fatality Events in 2011 # Of Structures/ Economic Loss Event Date Event Name Or Type Event Location # Of Deaths Claims Estimates (USD) 3/11 Earthquake Japan 15,844 1,100,000 210.00 billion 12/16-12/17 TS Washi Philippines 1,257 48,499 31.70 million 1/10-1/14 Flooding Brazil 903 21,500 1.20 billion 7/29-11/30 Flooding Thailand 790 4,000,000 45.00 billion 10/23 Earthquake Turkey 604 15,000 750.00 million 8/12-9/30 Flooding Pakistan 520 1,600,000 2.00 billion 4/22-4/28 Severe Weather Southeast, Plains, Midwest 344 700,000 10.20 billion 9/10-10/31 Flooding Cambodia 250 250,000 521.00 million 6/1-6/24 Flooding China 239 500,000 6.65 billion 10/19-10/21 TS 02B Myanmar 215 8,000 1.70 million The overall number of fatalities recorded in 2011 as a result of The most deadly event in 2011 was the March 11th Japan natural disasters was approximately 24,500, with at least eight earthquake and tsunami event. The main tremor and subsequent separate events killing a minimum of 250 people. The 2011 total tsunami killed at least 15,844 people in Japan (3,451 others was well below the number seen in 2010, when an estimated officially remained listed as missing) and also caused dozens of 303,000 people lost their lives. The 2010 number was elevated additional fatalities elsewhere around the outer rim of the Pacific due to the roughly 230,000 people that were killed in the Haiti Ocean. This event became the fifth deadliest earthquake event in earthquake and an additional 56,000 people who died in Russia Japan’s recorded history, only surpassed by temblors which struck as a result of a dangerous heat wave and wildfires. in 1923, 1896, 1707 and 1293. Exhibit 2 shows the top 10 human fatality events in 2011, as caused by natural disasters. 4 Impact Forecasting Exhibit 3: Top 10 Structural Damage and Filed Claim Events in 2011 # Of Structures/ Economic Loss Event Date Event Name Or Type Event Location # Of Deaths Claims Estimates (USD) 7/29-11/30 Flooding Thailand 790 4,000,000 45.00 billion 8/12-9/30 Flooding Pakistan 520 1,600,000 2.00 billion 3/11 Earthquake Japan 15,844 1,100,000 210.00 billion 8/22-8/30 HU Irene U.S., Bahamas, Caribbean Isl. 46 835,000 8.55 billion 5/21-5/27 Severe Weather Plains, Midwest, Southeast 181 750,000 9.10 billion 4/22-4/28 Severe Weather Southeast, Plains, Midwest 344 700,000 10.20 billion 3/21-4/8 Flooding Thailand 61 609,967 880.00 million 6/1-6/24 Flooding China 239 500,000 6.65 billion 1/1-5/31 Flooding Colombia 116 375,000 5.85 billion 7/27-7/30 TY Nock-ten Philippines, China, Vietnam 94 340,000 126.00 million Exhibit 3 shows the top 10 catastrophe events in terms of structures damaged or destroyed in 2011. The most destructive and damaging event in 2011 was the The United States set an official record for the number of billion- widespread flooding that affected much of Thailand between dollar economic loss events in 2011. According to the National July and November. The floods left at least 790 people dead Climatic Data Center (NCDC), at least 12 events officially broke and damaged or destroyed more than four million homes, the billion-dollar threshold — surpassing the previous record (9) manufacturing facilities, businesses and other structures. The set in 2008. However, it should be noted that data collected for economic and insured losses sustained during the floods made this report suggests that as many as 17 events surpassed USD1 this the costliest natural disaster event in Southeast Asia’s billion in economic losses during 2011 in the U.S.